Friday, July 24, 2020

'This Whole House of Cards Is Gonna Collapse': GOP Shutters Senate With US on Verge of Economic Catastrophe

"The magnitude of suffering this is about to cause is so immense."

by

Carlos Ponce joins other demonstrators participating in a protest asking Senators to support the continuation of unemployment benefits on July 16, 2020 in Miami Springs, Florida. (Photo: Joe Raedle/Getty Images)
As Senate Republicans headed home for the weekend without extending unemployment insurance benefits or approving other economic relief programs that could help millions of Americans weather the ongoing financial catastrophe of the coronavirus pandemic, progressives and congressional Democrats warned that disaster is on the horizon.
"This whole house of cards is going to collapse," Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.) warned during a press conference Friday afternoon. 
As Common Dreams reported, the departure of the GOP-controlled Senate for the weekend without a resolution to the benefits questions earned the upper chamber's leadership a harsh rebuke in a speech from Sen. Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), who called the decision by Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to recess until Monday unacceptable. 
"The lapse that is being forced on this country right now is because Senate Republicans would not step up," said Wyden. "The lapse is going to lead to evictions, it's going to lead to hunger, it's going to lead to desperation for millions of Americans."
House Democrats took to Twitter to decry their Senate GOP colleagues for abdicating their responsibility to the American people, noting that Republicans found time to vote for a mammoth $740 billion Pentagon budget but failed to approve anything to meet the needs of struggling workers and families.
"Senate Republicans have left Washington without passing the HEROES Act, without proposing their own Covid relief package, and without extending enhanced unemployment benefits for millions," tweeted Rep. Mark Pocan (D-Wis.), co-chair of the Congressional Progressive Caucus. "But they were able to pass a $740 billion defense budget with no trouble."
Rep. Judy Chu (D-Calif.) echoed those concerns and pointed out that the Senate's departure ensures the benefit will run out after next week's claims. 
"The cliff is here and Americans are suffering," said Chu.
Progressive groups like Indivisible are urging members to pressure senators to have a vote on the HEROES Act, which Democrats in the House passed in May, as soon as possible. 
Filmmaker Michael Moore cautioned lawmakers not to let the unemployment benefits lapse lest the country tip into a total economic mess.
"The magnitude of suffering this is about to cause is so immense," said Moore, "they have no idea of how much shit is gonna hit the fan."
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Protesters march on Mitch McConnell’s home as he weighs 80% unemployment cut



 July 24, 2020 Igor Derysh, Salon- Commentary


Protesters marched to the Washington home of Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., on Wednesday to call for an extension of federal pandemic unemployment benefits before they expire next week.

The protesters were accompanied by a caravan of supporters, including a band on a trailer with a banner reading, “Mitch better have my money,” which is a play on the Rihanna song “B*tch Better Have My Money.”

“What has helped millions of people survive — just barely survive — has been this pandemic unemployment insurance of $600 a week,” Ana Maria Archila, one of the protest organizers, told WJLA. “It is all of our money. They should be giving it to people to survive instead of giving it to corporations that don’t need it.”

The protest was held as Republicans and the White House push to slash the benefit to less than $200 per week, setting up a confrontation with Democrats, who approved a full extension of the $600 enhanced benefits in a House bill passed way back in May.

Republicans have had trouble agreeing on a plan among themselves, and a temporary extension of the benefits through December remains a possibility. The temporary extension would reduce the benefit to only $100 per week, or a cut of more than 80%, CNBC reported. About 30 million Americans currently rely on the benefit to survive.

“Republicans have had months to propose a plan for extending supercharged unemployment benefits, and they still have nothing to offer,” Sen. Ron Wyden, D-Ore., the top Democrat on the Senate Finance Committee, told NBC News.

The $600-per-week unemployment boost was approved as part of the CARES Act after aging state unemployment systems could not handle distributing millions of payments based on previous salary and only provide about 40% of a worker’s lost wages. Republicans want to slash the benefit, which expires next week, over concerns that it discourages Americans from returning to work at jobs which pay lower wages than the enhanced benefit.

Aside from what that says about the number of low-paying jobs in the U.S., it is also untrue. Though the majority of laid-off workers are receiving an average of 34% more than their previous salary, an analysis by former Treasury Department economist Ernie Tedeschi found “no evidence of any effect” on the labor market from the generous unemployment benefit. In fact, about 70% of the unemployment recipients who returned to work in June went back to jobs which paid less than the benefit.

During a recent Senate Finance Committee hearing on the benefit, the star Republican witness, a small business owner whose workers complained their laid-off colleagues were earning more from unemployment, admitted that he had no trouble getting workers to return.

“I was very happy that no one refused to come back,” he said, “and everybody when I talked to them was in agreement and said, ‘Fine, we’ll see you tomorrow.'”

Many workers simply cannot find a job because job openings are down about a quarter from pre-pandemic levels, and states that reopened too early are now once again shutting down bars, as well as movie theaters, gyms and salons.

While there is an absence of evidence to back the Republican claim that the benefit is a disincentive to workers, a growing body of evidence does show that the generous benefit has helped prop up the U.S. economy during the severe downturn.

An analysis by JPMorgan Chase found that additional spending by unemployment recipients helped alleviate a similar drop in spending by workers still on the job.

Tedeschi, the former Treasury economist, estimated that letting the benefit expire would cause the economy to shrink by 2% and cost the U.S. an additional 1.7 million jobs. Even a partial reduction to $300 per week would shrink the economy by 1% and cost about 800,000 by the end of the year, his analysis showed.

“Almost overnight, their incomes would be cut in half. In states like Arizona, Louisiana, and Mississippi, the typical worker would lose 75% of her benefits,” he wrote. “And in states with large populations of unemployed — states like Nevada that are heavily dependent on industries like tourism — losing the [federal benefit] would be equivalent to losing a tenth of *all* state personal income.”

“These unemployment benefit checks are really doing a large job in propping up spending by these unemployed households,” Joseph Vavra, a University of Chicago economist who has studied the impact of the benefit, told The New York Times.

If they expire, “there’s a good chance that what is now an unemployment problem becomes a foreclosure crisis and eviction crisis,” he added.

Despite evidence suggesting that a cut to the benefit could be catastrophic to the entire economy, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin told CNBC that the goal was to reduce the benefit from around 120% wage replacement to around 70% wage replacement. That would shrink the benefit to less than $200 per week. President Donald Trump called for the benefit to be reduced to $175 per week.

“Many businesses are open,” Mnuchin said. “Many businesses want to hire more people today.”

But there are more than three times as many unemployed people as there are job openings.

“Cutting off the $600 cannot incentivize people to get jobs that aren’t there,” Heidi Shierholz, the former chief economist at the Labor Department who now heads the left-leaning Economic Policy Institute, told CNBC.

House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., said the cut was “absolutely wrong.”

“The unemployment insurance is absolutely essential, he’s right on that. And if he wants to negotiate some alternative figures, fine, put them on the table. Let’s talk about them,” he told the outlet. “But don’t keep twiddling your thumbs while the American people are burning from a virus and a tanking economy.”
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The ‘hypocrisy knows no bounds’: Teachers’ union president slams Trump as he cancels GOP convention while urging schools to reopen
July 24, 2020 By Common Dreams


“It seems the lives of kids and teachers are less important to the president than those of GOP delegates.”

Citing the pandemic that he has downplayed for months, President Donald Trump on Thursday abruptly announced that it is “not the right time” to hold the Republican National Convention in August in Florida as planned—moments before he repeated his demand that public schools in the Sunshine State and nationwide reopen even as the coronavirus continues to spread across the country.

As Common Dreams reported last week, teachers in Florida, Arizona, and West Virginia have signaled in recent days that they plan to stage an uprising akin to the Red for Ed movement of 2018, demanding that schools remain closed in the fall because the Republican Party is refusing to federally fund safety measures to ensure teachers, students, and staff members don’t contract Covid-19 at school.

Trump’s insistence on sending the nation’s children and educators into harm’s way while admitting a crowded gathering of GOP leaders, delegates, and voters should be canceled was condemned by American Federation of Teachers (AFT) President Randi Weingarten.

So it’s too dangerous in Florida to hold a @gop Convention, but not too dangerous in Florida to reopen schools? Kids and teachers safety is less important than @gop delegates? Cmon @realDonaldTrump https://t.co/yGYx4FUMMr
— Randi Weingarten (@rweingarten) July 23, 2020

“The president’s hypocrisy knows no bounds,” Weingarten said in a statement Thursday. “Today he shut down the GOP National Convention in Florida in one breath, while pushing to reopen schools in the next.”

In his statement, Trump cited the National Education Association (NEA), which acknowledged in June that “online learning has never been an effective replacement for in-person learning and support.”

But NEA President Lily Eskelsen García has also forcefully called for federal funding for Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) and other safety protocols in schools, which the CDC recommended this month and which Trump and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) dismissed as “expensive.”

“He’s provided no plan and no funding, and has ignored the health experts. Teachers won’t let him get away with it.”
—Randi Weingarten, AFT

García echoed Weingarten Thursday in a statement that blasted Trump’s misplaced priorities as well as his ongoing disregard for students, teachers, and school staff.

“For months, educators have been begging for tools and resources that will allow us to return to in-person instruction safely while President Trump’s failure of leadership has allowed the pandemic to rage uncontrolled,” Garcia said. “Today he told us it’s too dangerous to hold a political convention but it’s not too dangerous to reopen school buildings.”

The GOP’s convention was set to take place in Jacksonville, Florida, after being moved from North Carolina when state officials objected to the gathering, citing safety concerns.

Florida emerged as a global epicenter of the coronavirus pandemic earlier this month. Over the past week, the state has seen an average of more than 10,000 new Covid-19 cases per day. More than 5,000 people have died of the disease since the beginning of the pandemic.

The Florida Education Association (FEA) filed a lawsuit this week against the state after Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Trump loyalist, issued an emergency order forcing schools to reopen in less than a month.

“No one wants to be back in a classroom and reopen our [schools] more than educators,” FEA President Fedrick Ingram told CNN. “But we want to do it safely. And we don’t want to put people at risk.”

The push to reopen by Trump and Education Secretary Betsy DeVos has been denounced by education advocates as an attempt to weaken the public education system, driving communities toward school voucher programs which pull money from public schools.

As Garcia noted, in the president’s statement Thursday he “doubled down on his threats to withhold federal funding that is desperately needed to reopen school buildings safely and equitably while pushing vouchers that steal scarce money from public schools when they need it the most.”

The president told the press that if a school remains closed, its funding should “follow the student so the parents and families are in control of their own decisions.”

“Students, parents, educators, schools, communities deserve better,” said Garcia.

Weingarten accused Trump as “sowing seeds of chaos and confusion so he can fulfill his and Betsy DeVos’ dream of privatizing and voucherizing public education.”

“He’s provided no plan and no funding, and has ignored the health experts,” the AFT leader said. “Teachers won’t let him get away with it.”

THE GREAT IRONY IS THAT THOSE CALLING TO OPEN SCHOOLS AND HOW IMPORTANT IT IS TO HAVE KIDS IN PUBLIC SCHOOL, ARE HOME SCHOOLERS
WHO OPPOSE PUBLIC SCHOOLS AND SUPPORT CHARTERS, PRIVATE SCHOOLS, RELIGIOUS SCHOOLS TO OPPOSE PUBLIC SCHOOLS.

SO HOME SCHOOLING IS SO IMPORTANT TO DEVOS AND THE RIGHT WING LOBBY BUT WAIT WE NEED KIDS BACK IN SCHOOL BECAUSE THEY ARE FAILING TO LEARN AT HOME, WITH TWO PARENTS TO TEACH THEM NOT JUST ONE.

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‘Joe, are the Russians bad?’: Here are 5 revealing details from new records of Trump’s intel briefing

July 24, 2020By Cody Fenwick, AlterNet- Commentary


A new document declassified by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence gives a new glimpse into Crossfire Hurricane, the investigation that was eventually taken over by Special Counsel Robert Mueller.

It records the notes of an FBI briefer who discussed foreign intelligence threats with then-candidate Donald Trump, Chris Christie, and Michael Flynn in August of 2016. The nature of the briefing has previously drawn scrutiny. While it was largely conducted as a typical security briefing of a presidential candidate, it was also carried out by a briefer involved in the investigation of associates of Trump’s campaign — including Flynn. Though not illegal or against official rules, critics have objected that it was inappropriate for the FBI to use a security briefing for purposes that the candidate himself was not aware of.


DNI John Ratcliffe presumably declassified the document to further the aims of Trump’s allies who are seeking to discredit Crossfire Hurricane and the broader Russia investigation. It doesn’t really present much new ammunition on that front, though, since the basics of the briefing were already known.

But here are five revealing details that the records contain:

1. “Joe, are the Russians bad?”

When the briefer, Joe Pientka, informed Trump of the nature of the Chinese and Russian counterintelligence threats, the candidate responded with this seemingly naive question. He continued, referring to the fact that the Russians had comparatively more intelligence officers in the U.S.: “Because they have more numbers, are they worse than the Chinese?”

Pientka responded by saying they are both bad.

“The numbers of [intelligence officers] present in the U.S. is not an indicator of the severity of the threat,” he noted.

2. Trump was warned about what happening, despite his claims

In the midst of the Russia investigation during his presidency, Trump claimed that he was never warned by the FBI of the threat posed to his campaign and the election more broadly:

RUSH LIMBAUGH “If the FBI was so concerned, and if they weren’t targeting Trump, they should have told Trump. If they were really concerned about the Russians infiltrating a campaign (hoax), then why not try to stop it? Why not tell Trump? Because they were pushing this scam.”
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 31, 2018

With Spies, or “Informants” as the Democrats like to call them because it sounds less sinister (but it’s not), all over my campaign, even from a very early date, why didn’t the crooked highest levels of the FBI or “Justice” contact me to tell me of the phony Russia problem?
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 26, 2018

As the documents make clear, though, Trump was warned explicitly that the Russians would likely try to recruit his associates and potentially infiltrate his campaign:

In the classical sense, an [intelligence officer] will attempt to recruit an individual to tell him or her the things he or she wants to know. This is known as HUMINT. It is highly unlikely a Foreign Intelligence Service will attempt to recruit you, however, you need to be mindful of the people on your periphery: your staff, domestic help, business associates, friends, etc. Those individuals may present more vulnerabilities or be more susceptible to an approach. Those individuals will also be targeted for recruitment due to their access to you. That does not mean [intelligence officers] will not make a run at you. They will send their [intelligence officers] in diplomatic cover, businessperson NOCs, as well as sources they have developed around you to elicit information and gain assessment on you.

Given the voluminous contacts between Trump campaign officials and Russia, it’s likely this is exactly what happened.

It is true, though, that Trump was never specifically warned about the threats under consideration by the Crossfire Hurricane investigation.

3. Trump’s comments about Barron

In a moment revealing the shallowness of Trump’s understanding of cybersecurity, the candidate compared the threats from foreign intelligence to his youngest son:
Yes, I understand it’s a dark time. Nothing is safe on computers anymore. We used to lock things in a safe in a room. Now anyone can get in. My son is ten years old. He has a computer and we put a codeword on it. Within ten minutes he broke the codeword and we needed to put another one on the computer. Kids are genius.

4. Trump was given specific instructions about cybersecurity that he clearly never listened to.

Pientka told Trump:
You should be mindful of your use of landline telephones, cellular telephones, e-mail and computer networks. As you are aware, discussions regarding classified information should only be held in a facility certified for classified discussions. Therefore, a Foreign Intelligence Service would not necessarily target you technically to gain access to the classified information you were briefed on, but you will be targeted for sensitive and personal information about you.

…

[Pientka] followed up by stating, in addition, you should not only consider how you communicate but where you communicate sensitive or personal information. Foreign Intelligence Services will develop a pattern on where you hold private meetings or discussions. They will attempt to determine if the location is a meeting room, kitchen, bedroom, vehicle, etc. Once a pattern is established they will attempt to exploit that location technically.

Despite these specific instructions — and he has doubtless received similar and more elaborate guidance since then — Trump has repeatedly violated best practices for avoiding foreign surveillance.

5. “During the ODNI briefs, writer actively listened for topics or questions regarding the Russian Federation.”

The document was filed as a part of the Crossfire Hurricane investigation, and Pientka noted that he was specifically conscious of mentions of Russia during the briefing. None of the comments from Trump’s side of the briefing seem particularly noteworthy with regard to the investigation.

However, as Justice Department Inspector General Michael Horowitz has argued, it was unwise to have someone involved in an investigation of individuals close to Trump conduct the candidate’s security briefing. This could prevent a conflict of interest, or at the very least, make candidates potentially suspicious of their briefers. For these reasons, Horowitz has recommended that the department specifically set guidelines restricting this sort of conduct.
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Is the United States being run by a madman? “What can you say about a person who, before speaking before an adoring crowd, raises his eyes to heaven and calls himself the chosen one?” says Noam Chomsky, responding to President Trump’s boast that he aced a mental acuity test.

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Texas GOP lawmaker brutally mocked for talk of bringing space aliens ‘salvation through Jesus’


Published July 24, 2020 By Brad Reed


A Republican Texas state congressman on Friday was instantly buried in mockery after he began musing about the possibilities of converting space aliens to Christianity.

Texas State Rep. Jonathan Stickland reacted to reports about declassifying information on UFO sightings by stating that any aliens aboard the ships would have to accept Jesus Christ into their hearts if they wanted a chance at eternal paradise

“IF aliens are real, salvation through Jesus Christ is the only way they enter Heaven,” wrote Stickland, who describes himself as a “Christian Conservative Liberty-Loving Republican.”

THEY CAME FROM THE HEAVEN'S ABOVE YOU IDIOT
Stickland’s Twitter followers quickly piled on to ridicule his notions of bringing extraterrestrials to Jesus — check out some reactions below.


Maybe they have their own sky god(s).
Maybe THEY created us.
Maybe your god was a precocious child of theirs that ran away and made a mess in a mud puddle.
All this and more is possible.
— Libtard Jesus, ANTIFA (it’s in the Bible) (@LibtardJesus1) July 24, 2020

A little too early to be smoking weed dude.
— (@jimmyotx) July 24, 2020


I am so sad for all the Gorblaxians from Nulsar 7. Their civilization died out several million years ago before they could even become aware of our planet and Jesus.
Now they’re burning in hell and don’t even understand why. Such a shame.
— Christian “Chonky Lynx” Restifo (@restifo) July 24, 2020


I for one would love to see Jeffress baptize little green men in the $7mm fountain at @firstdallas that they won’t let the homeless cool off in.
— Uncle Jimmy’s mask gave him VD (@jneutron1969) July 24, 2020

I mean that literally, by the way. The story is “Captain Stormfield’s Visit to Heaven” and was first published in Harper’s in 1907.https://t.co/09w0wpomhz
— Jordan ⚧(She/Her) Is Trans and YOU CAN’T STOP HER (@ParchmentScroll) July 24, 2020


I’m trying to imagine being this stupid.
I can’t do it.
— Calabrin (@OneTrueCalabrin) July 24, 2020

IF leprechauns are real, Jeff Dales, God of Squirrels is the only way to be blessed with nuts and berries in abundance, and to gain protection you from owls and felines.
— John Countryman (@CountrymanJohn) July 24, 2020

For example, in his worldview how the heck do they get original sin? They ain’t sons of Adam…
— Andrew Benedict-Nelson (@benedictnelson) July 24, 2020

Ah I see that you’re thinking about the important things as the country burns. I mean, have you seen how COVID is wrecking your state??? And it’s all because of you and your party. But, yeah, let’s talk more about the guy in the sky.
— botoxed camel (@mccbumgarner) July 24, 202

Please leave the planet and go spread the gospel in outer space.
— InSitu (@InSitu) July 24, 2020

exactly! And what if *gasp* THEY have their own God?
— Jennifer Sage‍
 
(@vivavelo) July 24, 2020


But if aliens are, say, Hispanic, just toss ’em in a cage, right? https://t.co/GZse4z8Gpp
— The Emperor’s New Tone (@here4tehbeer) July 24, 2020
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Trump ‘sought to frame and create a culture war’ by deploying DHS agents to Portland: report




Published 1 min ago

on July 24, 2020


By Bob Brigham


The leader of the free world is intentionally causing chaos in Portland to help his struggling 2020 re-election campaign, The Washington Post reported Friday.

The story, titled, “Operation Diligent Valor: Trump showcased federal power in Portland, making a culture war campaign pitch” was written by reporters Marissa J. Lang, Josh Dawsey, Devlin Barrett and Nick Miroff.

“As statues of Confederate generals, enslavers and other icons tumbled from their pedestals amid protests last month, President Trump issued an executive order meant to break the cascade,” the newspaper reported. “It enlisted the Department of Homeland Security, created in the wake of the Sept. 11 attacks to protect the country against external threats, to defend U.S. monuments and federal property against ‘anarchists and left-wing extremists’ who he said are advancing ‘a fringe ideology.'”
“The order signaled Trump’s eagerness to mobilize federal power against the societal upheaval that has coursed through America since George Floyd’s death,” the newspaper explained. “But Trump’s June 26 declaration came too late. The momentum of the protests was fading in many U.S. cities, and confrontations between federal authorities and civilians were becoming less frequent. Then Trump found Portland, according to administration and campaign officials.”


“Sinking in the polls over his handling of the coronavirus pandemic, Trump seized a chance to appear as a field general in a wider American cultural conflict over racial justice, police misconduct and the reexamination of American history and monuments,” the newspaper explained. “In Portland, he found a theater for his fight.”

Trump has been closely monitoring the DHS response to protests.

“Trump has taken a keen interest in tactical operations against the protesters in recent weeks, according to White House and administration officials at the center of the response, who like others spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations. When the fog of tear gas is thickest here in the wee hours of the morning, the president is sometimes up early on the other side of the country, calling Wolf for real-time updates from the front,” the newspaper explained.

But it may all be backfiring on Trump.

“The scenes of militarized federal forces on the city’s streets have stunned many Americans and unnerved former Homeland Security officials, but they have not quieted the protests. In many ways, the agents and the barricades they have erected have re-energized the demonstrators and have converted the courthouse into a proxy for the Trump administration itself,” the newspaper explained.

Read the full report.
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New York Times reports on the crisis at London Embassy under Trump donor Woody Johnson
July 24, 2020 By Bob Brigham


President’s Donald Trump’s Ambassador to the United Kingdon has worried diplomats for a pattern of “poor judgment” according to a bombshell report by The New York Times.

“Playing host at a small dinner on Tuesday night in honor of Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, the American ambassador to Britain, Robert Wood Johnson IV, told his guests that the wine was from President Trump’s vineyard in Virginia. He was serving it, he joked, even though it might be ethically improper,” the newspaper reported. “The next day, Mr. Johnson was not making any more jokes about ethics. On Twitter, he insisted he had “followed the ethical rules and requirements of my office at all times” after The New York Times reported that at the president’s request, he had raised with a British official the idea of steering the British Open golf tournament to Mr. Trump’s Turnberry golf resort in Scotland.

Johnson’s actions have alarmed career staff.

“In the ranks of the American diplomatic corps, Mr. Johnson’s enthusiasm for pleasing Mr. Trump has raised questions about whether Mr. Johnson — a 73-year-old pharmaceutical heir, N.F.L. team owner and longtime friend of the president’s — has put promoting his boss over his diplomatic duties,” The Times reported. “It has also deepened the misgivings of the London embassy’s staff about his judgment, given his reputation for off-color jokes and remarks to subordinates that some said have crossed the line into sexism or racism. His behavior has eroded morale among career diplomats and has surfaced in a State Department inspector general’s look at the embassy, the results of which are in a report filed in February but not yet released.”

The newspaper interviewed Lewis A. Lukens, who had served as Johnson’s deputy.

“Instances like this reinforce the image of an ambassador out of touch with government ethics requirements and more interested in serving the president’s personal interests than representing the country overseas,” he explained.

The newspaper also detailed how “Johnson regularly made his female and Black staff members uncomfortable with comments about their appearances or race.”

Read the full report.
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Condos May Be On The Way Out, Statistics Canada Predicts

Former Airbnb units are hitting the market at a time when buyers are looking further out of the city.

By Daniel Tencer


REDTEA VIA GETTY IMAGES
A view of high-rises in downtown and mid-town Toronto. Two new reports from Statistics Canada predict a slowdown in condo markets in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic.


Is the golden age of high-rise condos behind us?


Statistics Canada thinks that might be the case. The agency put out two reports this week in which it predicted that the shift to working from home, and the bust-out of short-term rentals amid the pandemic, will depress demand for condos in the longer run.

“As working from home becomes more prevalent, we may see an increase in the demand for larger living spaces that single-family homes can offer, causing a shift in demand from condominium apartments towards single houses,” StatCan said in a rare bit of crystal ball-gazing this week.

“Builders may start catering to buyers’ preferences by offering additional office space in the design of their new homes to accommodate remote working arrangements.”

In an outlook published this week, the agency predicted that in the country’s three largest housing markets ― Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver ― condos will come under pressure.

“Prior to the pandemic, Toronto was experiencing an exodus of middle class families to surrounding cities. This population outflow was previously overshadowed by immigration which has now decreased due to the impacts of the pandemic. This will likely also drive down the price of condominiums in the medium to long term,” the agency said.

“Similarly to Toronto, Vancouver has a potential of short term rentals flooding the market and thus causing a decline in condominium prices in the short to medium term.”

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Home Sales, Construction Headed For Period Of 'Severe Declines': CMHC

Recent data from real estate groups is pointing in the same direction.

An analysis from real estate portal Zoocasa found that in June there was a 257-per-cent spike in available condo rentals in Toronto buildings known to be “Airbnb-friendly.” That compares to an 83-per-cent increase, versus a year ago, in available rentals in the city as a whole.

“A significantly slower tourism industry is forcing many short-term rental investors to consider recalibrating their income strategy to either seek long-term tenants or consider offloading their investment entirely,” Zoocasa’s head of communications, Jannine Rane, wrote on the portal’s blog.

Meanwhile, a large share of homebuyers is looking to purchase on the edges of the city, or outside the city altogether, a phenomenon that seems to be happening in cities around the world, including in New York, London and the San Francisco Bay Area. As with Toronto, in many cases, it’s an acceleration of existing trends.

In a recent Nanos poll for the Ontario Real Estate Association, 60 per cent of respondents said they found rural living more appealing than before the pandemic.
Exodus to cottage country

Near Greater Toronto, real estate agents are reporting a “full-on frenzy” in the Muskoka cottage-country region north of the city. Home sales were up 30 per cent in June at the real estate board that covers the area, compared to the same month a year earlier.

“This is the highest demand we’ve seen for waterfront properties on record, with sales activity bouncing from recent lows to hit the largest sales record for any month in history,” Lakelands Association of Realtors president Catharine Inniss said in a statement.

And while Toronto’s real estate board cheerily reported a rebound in sales and a nearly 12-per-cent increase in the average selling price in June, the condo market there is showing signs of softening.

Condo sales were 16.3 per cent lower in June than a year earlier, while detached home sales were up 5.6 per cent.

The MLS home price index shows condo prices have fallen or stopped growing in the past few months in Toronto, Montreal and Vancouver.

In a recent report, Toronto real estate agent Doug Vukasovic noted that the very high prices in city cores are also driving people to look further outside the city.

“But bang for your buck may no longer be telling the whole story,” Vukasovic wrote. “Anticipating a post-pandemic ‘new normal’ of more flexible work and commuting arrangements, could buyers be prioritizing a bit more space ― and even a bit of backyard ― over being in the midst of the action downtown?

“Time will tell if this trend continues and Toronto’s suburbs continue their growing appeal.”
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The Pandemic Presents The Chance To End Homelessness In Canada For Good

It’s hard to social-distance at home if you don’t have a home.
By Melanie Woods

This story is part of After The Curve, an ongoing HuffPost Canada series that makes sense of how the COVID-19 crisis could change our country in the months and years ahead, and what opportunities exist to make Canada better.
Canada’s public health messaging during the COVID-19 pandemic has been clear and consistent: stay home, stay safe.

But Canadians experiencing homelessness don’t have that option, whether they’re camped out in streets or parks, or packed into crowded shelter spaces. At least 35,000 people experience homelessness every night in Canada. The pandemic has thrown that number into sharp relief, as the disease has threatened a population already at higher risk of mental and physical health complications.

Municipal, provincial and the federal governments have acted swiftly to address the increased risk posed to people experiencing homelessness, injecting funding into the non-profit sector and temporarily moving people into hotels and hockey arenas. In Montreal, masks are being distributed to the homeless population, the B.C, government gave out 3,500 smartphones to low-income people to help them access services closed by the pandemic, and Winnipeg has set up a testing site specifically for the homeless population. Homelessness advocates even launched a lawsuit against the City of Toronto to ensure proper social distancing in shelter spaces. The suit was settled in mid-May.
CHRIS YOUNG/THE CANADIAN PRESS
Doug Johnson Hatlem, a worker at The Sanctuary, a respite centre in Toronto, carries tents to be distributed to members of the homeless community on April 19 2020.


Canadian Alliance to End Homelessness president and CEO Tim Richter says these measures are all proof that governments are capable of acting on homelessness long-term.

“We can choose to move more aggressively and fix this problem, and that’s one of the things that these emergency measures have proven — that we can act rapidly and move people into housing if we choose,” he told HuffPost Canada.

Many experts argue that the policies put in place to abet homelessness during the pandemic could pave the way for a bigger institutional change, and even propel the push to end homelessness altogether.

They’ve been calling for it for years, but it might take a global pandemic to actually end homelessness in Canada.
That’s one of the things that these emergency measures have proven — that we can act rapidly and move people into housing if we choose.CAEH president and CEO Tim Richter


Vancouver’s Oppenheimer Park encampment — which at one point was occupied by upwards of 300 people and was one of the country’s largest encampments — was ordered cleared early in the pandemic to prevent spread of the disease. At least 265 people were moved into temporary shelter in empty hotels or other spaces by early May. Similar moves were made for long-standing encampments in Victoria as well.

“This is only the first step; there’s more work to be done to get housing, and there’s more work to be done in the community, and we’re doing that work,” B.C. Minister of Social Development Shane Simpson told reporters at the time.

Sarah Canham is an adjunct professor in gerontology at Simon Fraser University. She says prior to the pandemic, homelessness was largely talked about by the government and media in relation to social housing or general housing policy.

“Pre-COVID-19, when we heard about people experiencing homelessness, it was really at times when there would be new housing developments and there would be a sense of NIMBY-ism in our communities,” she said.
DARRYL DYCK/THE CANADIAN PRESS
Condos and apartment buildings are seen in downtown Vancouver, B.C. on February 2, 2017.


In our new world of physical distancing and personal protective equipment, jam-packed shelters and encampments are suddenly not just a housing issue, but also a public health crisis. And that means a lot more average Canadians, who otherwise might not think about homelessness issues, are suddenly keenly aware of the dangers posed by a pandemic in the current system.

“But now, people are noticing that it’s unsafe for people to be in overcrowded shelters where there aren’t medical staff on hand to support the outbreak of a pandemic,” Canham said. “It isn’t appropriate for people to be living on the street when businesses that they use on a daily basis for washing their hands on a regular basis or using the toilet facilities are no longer open.”

In April, several cases of COVID-19 were confirmed in Vancouver’s Downtown Eastside, where hundreds of people live in close proximity on the street, in camps like Oppenheimer or in crowded shelters. Early in the pandemic, officials were testing at three times the rate as the rest of Vancouver to catch any cases that arose.

Canham said that the “humanizing factor” of the pandemic’s effect on homeless people spurred fast action at various levels of government to address homelessness — actions academics and activists like her have been calling for for years.
DARRYL DYCK/THE CANADIAN PRESS
Police officers are seen at a homeless camp at Oppenheimer Park in the Downtown Eastside in Vancouver, on April 26, 2020.


“It’s shining a bit more of a light on the humanizing factor of some of the daily struggles that people have been encountering for decades here in Canada,” she said.

Some of these actions — such as housing people in empty hockey arenas or convention spaces — are temporary. When hotels saw business crash as borders closed and tourism dried up, an opportunity presented itself to temporarily house many of B.C.’s homeless population. Around 1,000 people between Vancouver and Victoria were offered the chance to relocate from encampments to these hotels.

But other provincial and federal actions are more permanent. The B.C. government purchased a hotel outside of Victoria to be converted into social housing and ease the congestion at a local encampment long-term. It will be operated by Our Place Society, a local organization that already offers support to the homeless, in partnership with B.C. Housing to provide shelter, meals and harm-reduction services related to drug use. The hotel’s pub is being converted into a safe consumption site, and residents will have access to regular wellness checks — and even the chance to bring their dogs and other personal items into their new living accommodations.

“We intend to serve this vulnerable population with dignity,” Grant McKenzie, Our Place spokesperson, said in a statement.

In early April, Trudeau’s government also announced $157 million in funding to shelters and other homeless relief efforts, with specific money going to women’s and Indigenous-focused services.

“It’s not just an issue of giving a safe place for people to escape violence or to give them shelter when they don’t have a home,” Trudeau said at the time. “It’s really an issue of protecting everyone in our society against COVID-19. That includes the most vulnerable.”

Prompted by these early moves to address COVID-19 and homelessness, advocates have come forward with calls to action at the municipal, provincial and federal levels to address homelessness long-term, arguing that this isn’t something that can be fixed by “band-aid” solutions

One such call was released April 27 by a collective of 40 housing advocates and researchers in association with the University of British Columbia’s Housing Research Collective, chaired by professor Penny Gurstein.

The document’s authors outline eight key areas the federal government can continue to address homelessness as part of the post-COVID-19 economic stimulus package.

“We are in crisis mode as individuals and organizations, but we also are looking to a better future. We write to suggest ways to get the economy moving again, through investing in infrastructure that can help reduce inequalities, improve the social determinants of health, and uphold human rights,” they note in the introduction.

The call includes a specific federal Indigenous housing strategy, emergency rent assistance and bans on evictions for all Canadians, building up existing social housing stock and reforming housing and tax policy to disincentivize rising home prices.

Gurstein told HuffPost that governments must start planning to maintain these supports after the crisis is over.

“It would be unconscionable for people, once the pandemic’s worst effects are over, to just say ‘well, you’re on your own again,’” she said.

Gurstein said housing has been a significant part of economic recovery plans dating back to the second World War. And it can’t just be affordable housing for home-owners, but renters and the homeless too.

“You have to be really thinking of how do you actually do a stimulus package that addresses housing for people that are not in the market. That would be non-market housing,” she said.

Alongside the UBC call to action, the Canadian Alliance to End Homelessness (CAEH) has also launched a campaign called “Recovery For All,” advocating for housing as part of any coronavirus recovery plan.
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