Thursday, August 06, 2020

What will our cities look like after COVID-19?

UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA

IMAGE: UBC URBAN PLANNING LECTURER ERICK VILLAGOMEZ view more

CREDIT: UBC

The past few months have been a highly unusual time as people sheltered in place to prevent the spread of COVID-19. Schools, streets and stadiums fell silent, tourist hot spots became ghost towns, and sidewalk traffic largely consisted of grocery and food deliveries.

In an article published this week in Cities & Health, UBC planning experts Jordi Honey-Rosés and Erick Villagomez analyzed the implications of these changes on city planning and space design. Alongside other scholars from Chile, China, Mexico, India and Spain, they looked at the measures taken by major cities to cope with the pandemic, and how those efforts transformed and continue to transform urban life.

The researchers say the pandemic is transforming city building, design, energy flows, mobility patterns, housing preferences, green spaces and transportation systems. Many of these changes may be temporary, while others may be permanent.

"In some cases, cities are accelerating the implementation of changes they had in the works already, such as rolling out planned bicycle infrastructure, street calming projects or sidewalk re-designs. In other cases, planners and neighbours are making things up as they go along, experimenting, testing and relying on low-cost interventions," said Honey-Rosés, an associate professor in the School of Community and Regional Planning at UBC.

Erick Villagomez, a part-time lecturer at the school, noted the drop in pedestrian traffic associated with commercial activity during COVID-19. According to the most recent Google Mobility Report, mobility associated with retail and recreation across Canada still sits at about 17 per cent below January-February median levels.

"Although this rate continues to rise slowly, the reduced pedestrian traffic to-date has already had strong effects on many local businesses, many of which have had to close their doors indefinitely. This trend will likely continue until a viable solution to the pandemic is found," said Villagomez.

Over the longer term, the researchers see further changes taking place, with cities likely looking to implement low-cost and temporary street calming and pedestrianization projects. "Streets might need to be re-designed. With online shopping and home food delivery having taken off, there is huge demand for curbside street parking, not only to meet new delivery needs, but also to free space for pedestrians," said Honey-Rosés.

They add that the look and feel of cities that rely on tourism will change, both in negative and positive ways. Businesses may continue to struggle, but there is an increased interest in building a stronger pedestrian-friendly environment. In Toronto, for example, the City accelerated plans to install cycling infrastructure along the popular Danforth Avenue as a part of COVID-19 relief plans.

As well, there is now a greater appreciation of the importance of providing easily accessible opportunities for the enjoyment of nature and a diversity of recreation activities. Cities may revisit the potential of unused spaces such as brownfield sites and building rooftops, citing the staggering amount of rooftops that are underused in many cities and could be converted into rooftop gardens.

Over time, the researchers say our sense of place and space may be permanently transformed. "Public space might still be a place for social interaction, but it may be more difficult for the spontaneous and informal. The pandemic may limit our ability to develop new relationships, especially among strangers," said Honey-Rosés.

On the positive side, the pandemic has given us an unprecedented opportunity to examine the links between urban planning, public space and wellbeing, he added. "Our future city is not preordained, but will be the result of specific decisions about public space. We hope citizens will talk to their leaders and come together with planning and policy professionals to build healthier cities during this crisis and beyond."

Villagomez, who has written extensively about the implications of transforming cities to meet the standard six-foot social distancing protocols, notes that the everyday spaces we inhabit have been shaped by millennia based on dimensions that are much smaller--three to four feet being the most common.

"Right now, people are attempting to adapt systems, behaviours and built spaces based on three-to-four-foot distances to the larger social-distancing dimensions. The results have been very interesting, showing a lot of creativity and innovation. But it's also already evident that cities cannot and will not fully change in every respect to allow six-foot distancing. This will continue to evolve as restrictions change," Villagomez added.

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"The impact of COVID-19 on public space: an early review of the emerging questions - design, perceptions and inequities" was published in Cities & Health and can be accessed at https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/23748834.2020.1780074

TRUMP REGIME IS A CRIME AGAINST HUMANITY

Inconsistent EPA regulations increase lead poisoning risk to kids, study finds

BROWN UNIVERSITY

PROVIDENCE, R.I. [Brown University] -- Two federal environmental standards regulating lead hazards in homes and child care facilities have different maximum thresholds, a discrepancy putting more than 35,000 kids in the United States at increased risk of lead poisoning.

That's according to a new study led by a Brown University researcher as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) moves to revise protective standards for dust lead levels on floors and windowsills in buildings constructed before 1978.

"Lead exposure presents a major risk to hundreds of thousands of children across the nation, and it's imperative that federal EPA regulations offer a clear and consistent standard to reduce that risk," said Joseph Braun, an associate professor of epidemiology at Brown. "Currently, these standards are counterproductive to public health."

In 2019, the EPA tightened the standard for the amount of residential dust lead considered hazardous to children from 40 micrograms per square foot (μg/ft2) to 10 on floors, and from 250 μg/ft2 to 100 on windowsills. The change came after a federal appeals court ordered the agency to reduce dust lead hazard standards after a 2016 lawsuit filed by environmental groups.

Traditionally, the residential standard had been the same as the clearance standard for dust lead levels after completing lead abatement work -- yet despite the more aggressive standard imposed after the court's order, the EPA left the post-abatement clearance standard where it has stood since 2001. Both standards fall under the Toxic Substances Control Act, which authorizes EPA to impose restrictions related to chemical substances.

Conceivably, a risk assessment could identify a dust lead hazard above 10 μg/ft2 but below 40 μg/ft2 on the floor of a home where there is a child with lead poisoning. Braun, an expert on children's environmental health, said an abatement contractor could theoretically do nothing, but given the discrepancy in standards, the unit would pass the clearance.

"When I read this, initially, I thought this is absolutely crazy," Braun said.

So Braun and his coauthors wanted to find out how many extra cases of lead poisoning would result from the post-abatement clearance standard being higher than the dust lead hazard standard.

Their study, published on July 28 in Pediatric Research, found that children in homes with floor dust lead loadings between 10 and 40 μg/ft2 had nearly four times the risk of lead poisoning compared to children from homes with floor dust lead loadings at or under 10 μg/ft2. They estimated that 36,700 cases of childhood lead poisoning - nearly 7% of U.S. children between the ages of 1 and 5 with lead poisoning -- were attributable to this regulatory discrepancy.

Dust from lead-based paint is a common cause of lead poisoning in young children, Braun said, and so the implications of the double standard are significant. Their greater hand-to-mouth behavior makes them vulnerable to lead exposure.

"I have a two-and-a half year old who puts everything in his mouth," Braun said. "That's how they explore their environment at this age."

Lead poisoning can cause learning disabilities and behavioral problems that last a lifetime and affect kids from all social and economic levels, though those living at or below the poverty line in older housing are at greatest risk. Earlier work by Braun and his colleagues found higher blood lead levels and risk of lead poisoning among Black children compared to white.

For the new study, the researchers looked at 250 children from Cincinnati living in homes built before 1978 -- the year lead-based paints were banned for residential use -- whose mothers participated in a longitudinal pregnancy and birth cohort study between 2003 and 2006.

Researchers took samples of floor and interior windowsill dust lead loadings with wipes over a 1-square foot area when participants joined the study, when their children turned 1 year old and again when they turned 2. Blood samples were also collected from the children at these same times.

The study adds to a vast body of scientific research guiding housing and environmental policymakers. But Braun points out that the bulk of these studies were completed 20 and 30 years ago when lead exposure was much higher.

"The fact that we're still seeing these relationships at contemporary levels of lead exposure indicates that this is still a significant problem, so that's the real contribution here," Braun said.

The EPA has issued a proposed rule to align the post-abatement clearance standard with the tighter standard revised in 2019. Its two-month public comment period ends on Aug. 24. An EPA spokeswoman said Braun's study will be considered when developing a final rule along with all other feedback received.

Braun said the proposed change still won't go far enough to protect children. In 2012, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention acknowledged there is no known safe blood lead level.

The study found children were at 45% higher risk of having blood poisoning at the newly revised floor dust lead hazards of 10 μg/ft2 compared to a more stringent standard of 5 μg/ft2.

"Reducing sources of lead exposure in children is imperative to optimize children's health," Braun said.

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Braun's coauthors included researchers from University of Cincinnati College of Medicine, National Center for Healthy Housing, University of Illinois at Chicago, Macquarie University and Simon Fraser University. The Cincinnati-based longitudinal study was supported by grants from National Institutes of Environmental Health Sciences (P01-ES011261 and R01-ES014575) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (RD-83544201).

NASA satellites capture Isaias' nighttime track into Canada

NASA/GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER

IMAGE: THIS ANIMATION OF NASA-NOAA'S SUOMI NPP SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE POSITIONS OF TROPICAL STORM ISAIAS FROM AUG. 2 TO AUG. 5 AT NIGHT AS IT MOVED NORTH ALONG THE U.S.... view more

CREDIT: COURTESY: NASA WORLDVIEW, EARTH OBSERVING SYSTEM DATA AND INFORMATION SYSTEM (EOSDIS).

Tropical Storm Isaias has transitioned into a post-tropical storm as it moved out of the U.S. and into eastern Canada on Aug. 5 and 6. NASA created an animation of nighttime satellite imagery that shows Isaias' track up the U.S. East Coast. In addition, NASA's Aqua satellite provided a view of Isaias' powerful storms over New York and New England.

What is a Post-Tropical Storm?

A Post-Tropical Storm is a generic term for a former tropical cyclone that no longer possesses sufficient tropical characteristics to be considered a tropical cyclone. Former tropical cyclones that have become fully extratropical, subtropical, or remnant lows, make up three classes of post-tropical cyclones. In any case, they no longer possesses sufficient tropical characteristics to be considered a tropical cyclone. However, post-tropical cyclones can continue carrying heavy rains and high winds.

NASA Tracks Isaias at Night

Infrared instruments enable satellites to gather imagery on storms at night because they read temperature. At NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. an animation of imagery from the VIIRS instrument aboard NASA-NOAA's Suomi NPP satellite imagery showed the positions of Tropical Storm Isaias from Aug. 2 to Aug. 5 at night as it moved north along the U.S. East Coast.

NASA's Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) Worldview application provides the capability to interactively browse over 700 global, full-resolution satellite imagery layers and then download the underlying data. Many of the available imagery layers are updated within three hours of observation, essentially showing the entire Earth as it looks "right now."

Isaias' Rain Potential Over New York and New England

On Aug. 4 at 1:53 p.m. EDT (1753 UTC) NASA's Aqua satellite analyzed cloud top temperatures in Tropical Storm Isaias using the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder or AIRS instrument. Isaias was centered near Albany, New York at the time of the over pass.

about where the strongest storms are located within a tropical cyclone. The stronger the storms, the higher they extend into the troposphere, and the colder the cloud temperatures. AIRS found coldest cloud top temperatures as cold as or colder than minus 63 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 53 degrees Celsius). NASA research has shown that cloud top temperatures that cold indicate strong storms that have the capability to create heavy rain.

That heavy rain potential was included in the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast at 5 p.m. EDT, "Heavy rainfall near the path of Isaias, through the Hudson River Valley, is likely to result in flash flooding, particularly through urban areas and the surrounding terrain of the Catskills, Adirondack and Green Mountain Ranges through Tuesday night. Scattered minor to moderate river flooding is likely across portions of the Mid-Atlantic."

Status of Isaias on Aug. 6

At 5 a.m. EDT (0900 UTC) on Aug. 6, the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias was located near latitude 47.5 degrees north and longitude 71.8 degrees west. That is about 55 miles (90 km) north-northwest of Quebec City, Quebec, Canada. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 28 mph (44 kph), and this general motion is expected with a decrease in forward speed through tonight.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 kph) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and the winds are expected to drop below tropical-storm force this morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the northeast and east of the center primarily over and near the St. Lawrence River. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 millibars.

NHC Forecast for Isaias

The NHC said, "Gale-force winds will continue over and near the St. Lawrence River this morning. Gale-force wind gusts are possible elsewhere over southeastern Quebec today. Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected along and near the track of Isaias across southern Quebec. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate over southeastern Canada on Thursday, Aug. 7."

NASA Researches Tropical Cyclones

Hurricanes/tropical cyclones are the most powerful weather events on Earth. NASA's expertise in space and scientific exploration contributes to essential services provided to the American people by other federal agencies, such as hurricane weather forecasting.

For more than five decades, NASA has used the vantage point of space to understand and explore our home planet, improve lives and safeguard our future. NASA brings together technology, science, and unique global Earth observations to provide societal benefits and strengthen our nation. Advancing knowledge of our home planet contributes directly to America's leadership in space and scientific exploration.

For updated forecasts, visit: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov

TALKING ABOUT SEX WORK WITHOUT CALLING IT THAT

Study finds benefit in more frequent

HIV screenings for young men who have sex with men

MASSACHUSETTS GENERAL HOSPITAL

"Young men who have sex with men account for one in five new HIV infections in the United States. Yet, more than half of young men who have sex with men and who are living with HIV don't even know that they have it," says Anne Neilan, MD, MPH, investigator in the MGH Division of Infectious Diseases and the Medical Practice Evaluation Center, who led the study.

"With so many youth with HIV being unaware of their status, this is an area where there are opportunities not only to improve care for individual youth but also to curb the HIV epidemic in the U.S. Despite these numbers, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention previously determined that there was insufficient youth-specific evidence to warrant changing their 2006 recommendation of an annual HIV screening among men who have sex with men."

HIV screening refers to testing of individuals who do not have symptoms of the infection. As defined by the study, high-risk refers to a recent history of condomless anal intercourse, sexually transmitted infection, or multiple sexual partners. Given the disproportionate impact of the HIV epidemic on YMSM, screening for HIV more frequently than current recommendations could identify infections that would otherwise be missed.

The study used data from the Adolescent Medicine Trials Network for HIV/AIDS Interventions (ATN) on how often HIV occurs in each age group, as well as the stage of disease at the time of diagnosis, to project the probable results of screening every three months, six months, or yearly.

Because a traditional study design to examine how often young men who have sex with men should be screened would be nearly impossible to conduct, the authors used a well-published computer microsimulation model developed by members of the research team.

The analysis revealed that HIV screening every three months, in addition to existing patterns of HIV screening among YMSM, would most improve HIV transmission and life expectancy among these men while remaining cost-effective. However, the results do not apply to youth who do not meet high-risk criteria.

Andrea Ciaranello, MD, MPH, investigator MGH Division of Infectious Disease, senior author of the study, says, "The improvements in life expectancy and reduction in HIV transmission were substantial. With more frequent screening, we also estimated that there would be additional, important improvements in the proportion of YMSM who are able to engage in HIV treatment and have excellent control of their HIV infection."

The authors also highlighted the opportunities for improved implementation of current annual screening recommendations. "If even the current CDC recommendations for annual HIV screening among YMSM could be fully met, important gains could be made both for the health of youth with HIV and in working toward our goal of ending the HIV epidemic," says Ciaranello. "Ultimately, our study underscores the value of ongoing research to examine the most effective ways to increase HIV screening among youth."

Neilan adds, "We found that screening every three months was cost-effective, even if the screening program itself cost up to $760 per person screened. The test itself cost $38-76; this suggests that a large additional investment in innovative HIV screening approaches for youth, including venue-based screening or mobile screening units, would be of good value in the U.S." Neilan is also an Instructor in Medicine, and Ciaranello is an associate pdrofessor of Medicine at Harvard Medical School.

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Additional co-authors of the report are Alexander J. B. Bulteel, Julia H. A. Foote, Kenneth A. Freedberg, MD, MSc, Rochelle P. Walensky, MD, MPH, Pooyan Kazemian, PhD, MGH Medical Practice Evaluation Center; Sybil G. Hosek, PhD, Stroger Hospital of Cook County; Raphael J. Landovitz, MD, MSc, University of California, Los Angeles; Stephen C. Resch, PhD, MPH, Milton C. Weinstein, PhD, Department of Health Policy and Management, Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health; A. David Paltiel, PhD, MBA, Yale School of Public Health; and Craig M. Wilson, MD, Department of Epidemiology, University of Alabama at Birmingham School of Public Health.

The Adolescent Medicine Trials Network for HIV/AIDS Interventions (ATN) 110 and 113 studies were supported from the National Institutes of Health through the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development, with supplemental funding from the National Institute on Drug Abuse and the National Institute of Mental Health.

The study also received funding from the Eleanor and Miles Shore Scholars in Medicine Fellowship; the Harvard University Center for AIDS; the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute for Child Health and Human Development; the International Maternal Pediatric AIDS Clinical Trials Network Early Investigator Award; the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases; the UCLA Center for HIV Identification, Prevention, and Treatment Services (CHIIPTS) National Institute of Mental Health; the UCLA Center for AIDS Research; the UCLA Clinical Translational Science Institute (CTSI); the National Institute on Drug Abuse; the National Institute of Mental Health; and the Steve and Deborah Gorlin MGH Research Scholars Award.

About the Massachusetts General Hospital

Massachusetts General Hospital, founded in 1811, is the original and largest teaching hospital of Harvard Medical School. The MGH Research Institute conducts the largest hospital-based research program in the nation, with an annual research budget of more than $1 billion and comprises more than 9,500 researchers working across more than 30 institutes, centers and departments. In August 2020 the MGH was named #6 in the nation by U.S. News & World Report in it

Identifying local solutions in the barotse floodplain for sustainable agricultural development

To develop locally relevant strategies that improve food security, nutrition, and conservation, researchers employed a gendered ecosystem services approach in Zambia.

INTERNATIONAL CENTER FOR TROPICAL AGRICULTURE (CIAT)

IMAGE: THE STUDY SUGGESTS SEVERAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HOW MEN AND WOMEN ACCESS THEIR ECOSYSTEMS: FOR EXAMPLE, WOMEN GO TO SHALLOWER RIVER AREAS FOR SMALLER FISH. view more

CREDIT: BIOVERSITY INTERNATIONAL/E.HERMANOWICZ

The Barotse Floodplain in Zambia is one of Africa's largest wetlands, representing varied ecotypes and high biodiversity conservation value. However, the Lozi People who live in the region face an intense "hungry season" from November to January when accessibility to food is very limited. This means that year-round nutrition and food security are consistently top priorities.

Conventional intensive agriculture is not well-suited for the Barotse landscape. Over-expansion of agriculture would have cascading negative effects on local people, wildlife, downstream ecosystems, and economic sectors such as hydropower.

To help improve livelihoods through sustainable agricultural development and environmental protection, researchers from the Alliance of Bioversity International and CIAT worked with Lozi communities to identify locally relevant strategies. They published some of their findings in a recent study in the International Journal of Agricultural Sustainability.

Why identify ecosystem services?

Ecosystem services encompass a plethora of benefits to humans that come from natural and managed lands. However, researcher and co-author Natalia Estrada-Carmona says, only a small fraction of these tend to be considered, valued, and measured (e.g., CO2 or crop yields) in economic and agriculture development agendas.

The research team used a gender-sensitive ecosystem services approach to work with three local communities. Focus group participants (separated into men and women) used 1,992 coded cards in English and the local language Silozi to assess 17 ecosystem services, from fishing to erosion control.

Questions such as "Where do you go to get water for consumption?" and "What eco-types are important for controlling floods?" identified services according to provisioning, regulating, and cultural uses and benefits.

"The activities carried out with the local communities helped to visualize all the benefits from the different eco-types present in the floodplain. It was very interesting to see that many of the most important ecosystem services for both women and men come from native vegetation eco-types," explains Estrada-Carmona. "Additionally, this exercise facilitated discussing and visualizing the trade-offs associated with converting natural vegetation to cultivated eco-types. Those trade-offs are often invisible in agriculture development agendas and programs. This research confirms that assuming that agricultural expansion can occur everywhere without consequences is a pretty biased perception."

Much of the fertile land in the floodplain is being converted for agricultural use.

The study suggests several differences between how men and women access their ecosystems: for example, women go to shallower river areas for smaller fish and cultivate diverse crops, including neglected and underutilized species (NUS), that complement household nutrition security.

The dynamic nature of the floodplain also translates into seasonal changes in human migration, and labor shortages. Estrada-Carmona elaborates: "Communities in the uplands are settling more as access to schools, roads, and electricity increases. Women tend to stay caring for kids, elders, and land during the dry season while men migrate to the plains in the hunt for fish and cash. Therefore, agricultural practices or activities that ignore women's reality in the uplands during the dry season would either add a burden or exclude them from implementing those practices or activities."

Agroecological intensification - multifunctional agricultural land

Although the study revealed that forests in the uplands and grasslands in the plains provide the bulk of ecosystem services, these fertile lands are often converted to agricultural land. The authors point out that rather than monocultures focused on cash crops, such as hybrid maize and rice, local food security and livelihoods would benefit most from agroecological intensification. Approaches such as multiple cropping, conservation agriculture, and agroforestry could restore and maintain the identified ecosystem services in cultivated lands while reducing the pressure on natural lands.

Local people and the Zambian government already recognize the value of crop diversity in mitigating environmental, food security, and market risks, with researchers finding that at least 17 NUS are currently being planted. However, maize is the most common crop, and there is a lack of support for experimentation and innovation that can identify the cultivation system best suited to ensure year-round, long-term production and other benefits.

"Agricultural land is seen as a source of yields or calories only," says Estrada-Carmona. "In reality, it is the most malleable land that can contribute to maintaining soil fertility, erosion or flood control, water quality, wildlife connectivity/habitat, etc. Hence, identifying the cropping systems and crop diversification strategies at the farm and landscape level that generate those multiple benefits is vital for sustainable and holistic development."

The study concludes: "The intertwined drivers of change and the complex trade-offs between ecosystem services demand looking beyond 'agriculture' and 'conservation' as two separate challenges... All stakeholders' agendas could be better articulated by integrating the traditional place-based knowledge for jointly planning a sustainable future of the Barotse Floodplain for livelihoods, well-being, and conservation."

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SHHH DON'T TELL ELON MUSK

Research suggests viability of brain computer to improve function in paralyzed patient

SOCIETY OF NEUROINTERVENTIONAL SURGERY

The study, Motor Neuroprosthesis Implanted using Cerebral Venography Improves Activities of Daily Living in Severe Paralysis, is the first-in-human examination of the stentrode, an implantable brain- computer interface, conducted at The Royal Melbourne Hospital. The first patient to receive the device was a 75-year-old man with severe paralysis due to amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), who was totally dependent on his wife for care.

"The implantation procedure combined functional MRI coregistration with angiography to precisely place the stentrode over the motor cortex," said Professor Peter Mitchell, principal investigator and leader of the operative team.

Following implantation of the device, the patient increased independence and could perform essential activities, such as text messaging, online shopping and managing his finances.

"The results in this first human trial show promise that this device may restore voluntary motor function of personal computers and devices for patients with severe paralysis due to brain, spinal cord, peripheral nerve or muscle dysfunction," said Dr. Thomas Oxley, lead author of the study and Associate Professor in the Vascular Bionics Laboratory at the University of Melbourne. "We need to conduct additional research to confirm our preliminary results and prove the validity of this ground-breaking technology."

The stentrode brain-computer interface translates brain activity associated with attempted movements and digitally converts thoughts into command functions of external devices. The data shows successful control of devices that improve instrumental activities of daily living, which can include texting, emailing, online shopping and banking.

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To receive a copy of this abstract or to speak with the authors, please contact Maria Enie at menie@vancomm.com or 202-248-5454.

About the Society of NeuroInterventional Surgery

The Society of NeuroInterventional Surgery (SNIS) is a scientific and educational association dedicated to advancing the specialty of neurointerventional surgery through research, standard-setting, and education and advocacy to provide the highest quality of patient care in diagnosing and treating diseases of the brain, spine, head, and neck. Visit http://www.snisonline.org and follow us on Twitter (@SNISinfo) and Facebook (@SNISOnline).

"Ample evidence" that Cape Hatteras beach closures benefit birds

Independent report assesses appropriateness of current NPS beach management plan

AMERICAN ORNITHOLOGICAL SOCIETY PUBLICATIONS OFFICE

The barrier islands of North Carolina's Cape Hatteras National Seashore are among the most popular recreational destinations on the Atlantic coast. Park managers strive to integrate the needs of wildlife with recreational use of the area's beaches, but in some cases, they impose restrictions on the latter in order to preserve the former--sometimes even completely closing portions of beaches to pedestrian and off-road vehicle traffic to protect nesting birds. These closures are controversial, but a new independent report from the American Ornithological Society (AOS) finds evidence that despite complaints from the public, they provide significant benefits for vulnerable beach-nesting birds and sea turtles.

Two such beach-nesting birds--the American Oystercatcher and federally threatened Piping Plover--are of particular concern to Park managers. Populations of both species at Cape Hatteras declined in the late 1990s and early 2000s. The plover population recovered to pre-decline levels, whereas the oystercatcher population did not. In 2016, in response to the ongoing controversy over beach closures in the park, the National Park Service asked AOS to assemble an expert panel and produce an independent report assessing the appropriateness of the current NPS beach management plan.

Two factors that determine whether a population of shorebirds grows are carrying capacity (how many individuals the existing habitat can support) and productivity (how many young are produced). According to the report, carrying capacity for the two shorebird species has been reduced due to disruption of barrier island dynamics by human structures and activities, but the National Park Service has limited options for boosting carrying capacity. However, Park managers do have options for increasing productivity.

Productivity is influenced by factors including predation and human disturbance, both of which have contributed to past shorebird declines. The presence of humans can indirectly increase the risk to birds from predators such as raccoons, which are initially attracted to human trash and then stick around to raid nests. Wildlife managers might be able to boost productivity by removing more predators from the local ecosystem, but that doesn't mean that beach closures can be scrapped in favor of increased predator control. The report also found that the controversial beach closures, though not sufficient on their own to increase productivity enough for populations to grow, appear to be necessary for maintaining productivity at its current level.

"Overall, we found the Park's management of beach-nesting species, which include sea turtles and colonial terns and skimmers as well as the two shorebirds, to be appropriate, although some Park objectives should be reevaluated in light of recent research," says Jeff Walters, lead author of the report. "There is ample evidence of the benefits of restrictions on pedestrian and off-road vehicle activity to protect beach-nesting species, although this is just one of several factors important to the success of these species at Cape Hatteras National Seashore."

The full report by J.R. Walters, A.A. Dayer, S.J. Dinsmore, M.H. Godfrey, C.L. Gratto-Trevor, E. Nol, S.R. Riggs, which was prepared by The American Ornithological Society Committee on Science Arbitration, can be found here: https://americanornithology.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/CAHA-report_final-AOS.pdf

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Analysis of renewable energy points toward more affordable carbon-free electricity

CALIFORNIA INSTITUTE OF TECHNOLOGY

As more states in the U.S. push for increased reliance on variable renewable energy in the form of wind or solar power, long-term energy storage may play an important role in assuring reliability and reducing electricity costs, according to a new paper published by Caltech researchers.

Graduate student Jackie Dowling, who works in the lab of Nathan Lewis (BS '77), the George L. Argyros Professor and professor of chemistry, has collaborated with Ken Caldeira at the Carnegie Institution for Science and others to examine energy-storage options and multiple decades of data about wind and solar availability. Dowling and her collaborators determined that currently available battery technology is prohibitively expensive for long-term energy storage services for the power grid and that alternative technologies that can store a few weeks' to a month's worth of energy for entire seasons or even multiple years may be the key to building affordable, reliable renewable electricity systems.

Energy storage is needed with renewable energy because wind and solar energy are not as reliably available as fossil fuels. For example, wind power is often at its lowest during the summer in the United States, which is when the electrical grid is strained the most by the demand for air conditioning in homes and businesses.

"This research is motivated by the fact that laws in several states have mandated 100 percent carbon-free electricity systems by midcentury," says Dowling, lead author of a paper about the work. "Within these mandates, a lot of states include requirements for wind and solar power. Both wind and solar are variable from day to day, or even year to year, yet high reliability is mandatory for a viable electricity system. Energy storage can fill in for the gaps between supply and demand."

Dowling looked at short-duration storage systems, such as lithium-ion batteries, and long-duration storage methods, such as hydrogen storage, compressed-air storage, and pumped-storage hydroelectricity.

To see how to optimize the use of those storage technologies at the lowest energy cost, Dowling built a mathematical simulation of each and incorporated historical electricity-demand data and four decades of hourly resolved historical weather data across the contiguous U.S. The Macro Energy Model, as she calls it, reveals that adding long-duration storage to a wind-solar-battery system lowers energy costs. In contrast, using batteries alone for storage makes renewable energy more expensive.

Dowling says that the extra expense associated with batteries occurs because they cannot cost-effectively store enough energy for an entire season during which electricity is generated in lower amounts. That means an electrical grid would require many costlier solar panels or wind turbines to compensate and would result in wasteful idling of electricity-generation equipment for much of the year.

Currently available battery technology is not even close to being cost effective for seasonal storage, Dowling says.

"The huge dip in wind power in the summer in the U.S. is problematic, and batteries are not suitable for filling that gap. So, if you only have batteries, you have to overbuild wind or solar capacity," she says. "Long-duration storage helps avoid the need to overbuild power generation infrastructure and provides electricity when people need it rather than only when nature provides it. At current technology costs, storage in underground caverns of green hydrogen generated by water electrolysis would provide a cost-effective approach for long-duration grid storage."

Other researchers have built renewable energy models, but the team's data-driven approach is the first to incorporate four decades of historical wind and solar variability data, thus factoring in variability from year to year and periodic episodes of rare weather events that affect power generation, such as wind and solar droughts.

"The more years of data we use in our models, the more we find a compelling need for long-term storage to get the reliability that we expect from an electricity system," she says.

Dowling suggests her findings may be helpful to policy makers in states with 100 percent carbon-free electricity laws and high wind/solar mandates and to other U.S. states considering the adoption of similar laws. In the future, she plans to extend her research to take an in-depth look at the roles that specific types of energy storage, such as hydrogen or redox flow batteries, can play in renewable energy systems. For instance, some types of batteries might effectively serve as medium-duration energy storage, she says.

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The paper, titled "Role of long-duration energy storage in variable renewable electricity systems," appears in the September issue of Joule. Co-authors are Lewis and Katherine Rinaldi, chemistry graduate student, of Caltech; Tyler Ruggles, Mengyao Yuan, and Ken Caldeira of the Carnegie Institution for Science; Steven Davis of UC Irvine; and Fan Tong of the Carnegie Institution for Science and Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory.

Support for the research was provided by the Resnick Sustainability Institute at Caltech, through which Dowling is a Zeller-Resnick Fellow; the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation; a fellowship from the Southern California Gas Company; and through a gift from Gates Ventures LLC to the Carnegie Institution for Science.

HEALING IT'S ALL IN YOUR HEAD

Placebos prove powerful even when people know they're taking one

MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY

IMAGE: THE NEW FINDINGS, PUBLISHED IN NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, TESTED HOW EFFECTIVE NONDECEPTIVE PLACEBOS -- OR, WHEN A PERSON KNOWS THEY ARE RECEIVING A PLACEBO -- ARE FOR REDUCING EMOTIONAL BRAIN ACTIVITY. view more

CREDIT: PEXELS: PIXABAY CC0

EAST LANSING, Mich. - How much of a treatment is mind over matter? It is well documented that people often feel better after taking a treatment without active ingredients simply because they believe it's real -- known as the placebo effect.

A team of researchers from Michigan State University, University of Michigan and Dartmouth College is the first to demonstrate that placebos reduce brain markers of emotional distress even when people know they are taking one.

Now, evidence shows that even if people are aware that their treatment is not "real" -- known as nondeceptive placebos -- believing that it can heal can lead to changes in how the brain reacts to emotional information.

"Just think: What if someone took a side-effect free sugar pill twice a day after going through a short convincing video on the power of placebos and experienced reduced stress as a result?", said Darwin Guevarra, MSU postdoctoral fellow and the study's lead author. "These results raise that possibility."

The new findings, published in the most recent edition of the journal Nature Communications, tested how effective nondeceptive placebos -- or, when a person knows they are receiving a placebo -- are for reducing emotional brain activity.

"Placebos are all about 'mind over matter," said Jason Moser, co-author of the study and professor of psychology at MSU. "Nondeceptive placebos were born so that you could possibly use them in routine practice. So rather than prescribing a host of medications to help a patient, you could give them a placebo, tell them it can help them and chances are -- if they believe it can, then it will."

To test nondeceptive placebos, the researchers showed two separate groups of people a series of emotional images across two experiments. The nondeceptive placebo group members read about placebo effects and were asked to inhale a saline solution nasal spray. They were told that the nasal spray was a placebo that contained no active ingredients but would help reduce their negative feelings if they believed it would. The comparison control group members also inhaled the same saline solution spray, but were told that the spray improved the clarity of the physiological readings the researchers were recording.

The first experiment found that the nondeceptive placebos reduced participants' self-reported emotional distress. Importantly, the second study showed that nondeceptive placebos reduced electrical brain activity reflecting how much distress someone feels to emotional events, and the reduction in emotional brain activity occurred within just a couple of seconds.

"These findings provide initial support that nondeceptive placebos are not merely a product of response bias - telling the experimenter what they want to hear -- but represent genuine psychobiological effects," said Ethan Kross, co-author of the study and a professor of psychology and management at the University of Michigan.

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Credible assumptions replace missing data in COVID analysis

CORNELL UNIVERSITY

ITHACA, N.Y. - How contagious is COVID-19, and how severe is the virus for those who've caught it?

Everyone wants firm numbers as schools make decisions about in-person versus remote learning, as local and state governments grapple with reopening, and as families care for sick loved ones.

But firm data is missing, said Francesca Molinari, the H.T. Warshow and Robert Irving Warshow Professor in the Department of Economics, in the College of Arts and Sciences. The best way to find out the share of the population that has been exposed to the virus is to either test everyone or to test a random sample of people. But currently not everyone gets tested, and testing is not random; moreover, tests are not perfect. These data challenges have led to wildly divergent predictions in recent months about how many people get infected and how many infected people die.
In research published in the Journal of Econometrics, Molinari and Charles F. Manski, the Board of Trustees Professor at Northwestern University, wrote that actual cumulative rates of COVID-19 infection are higher than reported rates of infection, and therefore actual infection fatality rates are lower than reported rates. The researchers reached these conclusions using a technique called "partial identification," which Molinari uses often in her econometrics research.

"You are interested in some quantity, but you cannot learn it exactly," she said. "In this particular instance, we are interested in the infection rate, and we recognize that because we don't have a random sample, we can't learn the exact infection rate from the data."

She and Manski made weak but logical assumptions about COVID-19 data from Illinois, New York and Italy from March 16 to April 24, thereby putting some limits around the incomplete data.

They assumed that the infection rate among those who are tested is higher than the rate among those who are not - a logical assumption because people showing symptoms are most likely to be tested. The researchers also allowed for the possibility that many negative test results were false - i.e., that the person tested was actually positive but not counted.

These two assumptions drive the actual cumulative infection rates up and push the actual fatality rates down, Molinari said. Cumulative infection rates in New York state as of April 24, according to the researchers, were between 1.7% and 61% of the state's 19.45 million residents (or between 330,650 and 12,020,100 people), with an upper infection fatality rate of 4.9%. That is substantially lower than the death rate among confirmed infected individuals, which on April 24 was 5.9%.

Infection rates for the same date in Illinois were between 0.04% and 52%; in Italy, they were between 0.06% and 47%.

"The bounds you get are wide," Molinari said, "but they are substantially tighter compared to the bounds you obtain if you assume nothing about the missing data."

Making key assumptions and narrowing the bounds helps policymakers and leaders better understand fatality rates as they try to limit spread of the virus and plan reactivations. Molinari hopes this research will contribute to serious analysis of policies.

Molinari and Manski are working on a follow-up analysis of a longer time period that adds data from California, Florida and Texas to the study.

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