Sunday, August 30, 2020

Electric Ships Are Pushing The Boundaries Of Batteries

By Irina Slav - Aug 27, 2020

Maritime transport is one of the largest consumers of fossil fuels and, as such, a natural target for those looking for cleaner alternatives. Making ships electric was a no-brainer, but there was a challenge—the same as the main challenge for electric cars. Range. The solution to the challenge has been relatively simple: bigger batteries. According to a recent report by market research firm IDTechEx, electric ships feature the biggest batteries out there, and they are only going to get bigger because range remains a top priority.

For scale, IDTechEx offers the average size of an EV’s battery, which in the United States is 67 kWh. An electric bus in China has a battery of 210 kWh. And then there is the Ellen ferry in Denmark, which is powered by batteries with a total capacity of 4,300 kWh. The Ellen project took five years to complete and cost $25.2 million (21.3 million euro). The huge battery, however, only has a range of 21.4 miles, although it boasts a record charging rate of 4 MW, according to IDTechEx’s report.

At first glance, 4,300 kWh for a range of fewer than 22 miles sounds like a joke, but ships are big things, after all, and it takes a lot of electricity to power them. Ellen also sounds quite an expensive experiment, although it may eliminate 2,000 tons of carbon dioxide emissions, along with 41.5 tons of nitrous oxides and 1.35 tons of sulfur dioxide annually.

But is it worth it?

It may be, judging by the fact there are several electric ship projects being developed around the world. Japanese companies, for instance, are working on the world’s first fully-electric tanker. The e5 project should be completed in early 2022 and, according to IDTechEx, will have a battery of 4,000 kWh and a range of 80 miles.

Related: Putin Would Like To See Oil Prices Above $46 Per Barrel

There is also one fully electric container ship operating between Chinese ports. In a somewhat ironic twist, the purpose of the ship is to transport coal. According to local media, it has a battery of 2,400 kWh and has a range of 50 miles. This is enough to complete a journey from one port to the other and then charge over the period it takes to load or unload its cargo.

And then there is the Yara Birkeland in Norway, which will be not only fully electric but also autonomous when complete, because construction ceased due to the pandemic and, according to the company, the economic outlook has changed. This is just one sign that it is probably way too early to hail the start of the electric era in shipping.

Vaclav Smil from IEEE Spectrum wrote in a 2019 article that electric ships simply cannot compete with the volumes that diesel-powered container ships can carry and the distances they can go without needing to stop and refuel. The Yara Birkeland, Smil noted, will carry some 120 TEUs over a distance of just 30 miles.

This compares with several thousand TEUs for many diesel-powered vessels, up to a record of over 20,000 TEUs for the container ships of OOCL Hong Kong.

And then there is the range. For electric ships, it is just minuscule compared to the thousands of miles that diesel-powered contain ships can cover.

Finally, there is the cost of the battery. Lithium-ion battery cells are still quite costly, especially for a battery pack boasting a couple of thousand kilowatt-hours that users expect will charge quickly. The positive is that users only have to pay for it once, whereas diesel-powered vessels must refuel regularly— but the upfront cost is quite hefty, based on an average (car) lithium-ion battery cost of $156 per kWh as of 2019, according to BNEF. And ship batteries are not the same as car batteries.

Maritime transport is one of the most polluting industries in the world. Changing this is certainly important from an environmental perspective. But electrification is not a magic wand. Electrifying ships will take a while.

By Irina Slav for Oilprice.com
Building The World’s First Nuclear Fusion Reactor

By Haley Zaremba - Aug 25, 2020

70 years after the first energy was made using nuclear power at an experimental station near Arco, Idaho, nuclear energy remains at the heart of a contentious debate. Nuclear power holds enormous potential as a solution to curbing emissions that contribute to global warming, as splitting atoms to make energy is extremely efficient and produces absolutely greenhouse gas emissions. What it does produce, however, is hazardous waste that remains radioactive for millennia. And then there is the issue of public mistrust, as high-profile nuclear disasters like those at Chernobyl, Fukushima, and Three Mile Island have seared themselves into the global community’s collective memory. But what if there was a way to produce nearly boundless atomic energy without creating any radioactive waste and without any risk of meltdown? Scientists have been chasing this holy grail of clean energy--nuclear fusion--for nearly 100 years. Nuclear fusion, the energy creation process that occurs naturally on the sun, is many times more powerful than nuclear fission, and could solve some of humanity's most pressing and seemingly unsolvable problems with its infinitely renewable and totally clean energy production if we can finally find a way to make it commercially viable.

Building a star here on Earth, however, is far easier said than done. This silver bullet solution to energy and climate change has remained elusive. But we are now closer than ever to making it a reality. The European ITER project has recently surpassed a series of milestones with their tokamak currently under construction in the South of France. The project, a collaboration between 35 nations decades in the making claims that they will achieve first plasma by 2025, and commercial nuclear fusion could be close behind.

But now there is another project underway in the UK that could pave the way for ITER. “Dozens of scientific projects have fought to make commercial nuclear fusion a reality. None has succeeded,” reports Wired. “But in 2021, an ambitious European-funded project in the UK will switch on for the first time in 23 years, and it could be a vital step on the road to fusion.”

This project is, in many ways, a model miniature of the massive ITER tokamak project in France. “Inside a reactor shaped like a giant doughnut, scientists from the Joint European Torus (or JET) project will smash hydrogen atoms together at high speed, releasing a huge amount of energy and heat in the form of plasma. Temperatures will reach a level ten times hotter than the Sun as the plasma swirls around,” the article details. ITER, Wired writes, is relying on the smaller-scale experiments currently underway at JET to fasttrack nuclear fusion for commercialization by “[cutting] down the amount of time required to take fusion power out of the lab and into our homes.”

The Wired article published this week takes readers on a tour of this new reactor, starting with the waveguide pipes that transmit microwaves to heat plasma to “temperatures ten times hotter than the Sun.” Operations within the replica tokamak test facility are carried out by “articulated arms.” From a control room, highly trained engineers practice using these robot arms--called the MASCOT-- to move things around so that actual workers will not have to go inside the tokamak to touch potentially radioactive materials. The MASCOT “mimics human arms and hands, and is capable of tightening screws and ‘feeling’ objects on behalf of humans that control it from a safe distance,” explains Wired. “Robots go into the tokamak when human beings cannot.”

With the huge scale and even bigger stakes for the tokamak project currently being built by ITER, it is essential that the mechanizations and routine operations of the tokamak environment are practiced and perfected before the machine goes online in coming years. When building a machine that could change everything, you better know how to use it.

By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com

America Could Go Fully Electric Right Now


Meredith Poor August 13 in Renewables

"Complete electrification and close to 100 percent renewable energy generation: this is a vision of the United States 15 years from now."

I'm not sure where the 15 years came from, 10 years is more likely. Right now all of this is being framed as a 'possibility'. Even minor decreases in cost will make it a 'certainty'.

"Although it may sound counterintuitive at first, despite this greater electricity demand, total energy demand would fall substantially, the report’s authors say."

If one burns coal or splits atoms, the 'efficiency' is around 30%. 3X thermal watts go in for every electrical watt that comes out. Wind and solar produce electricity from the outset, so there is no thermal conversion. Natural gas combined cycle is a bit better at 60% to 80%, but there is still 'waste heat'. If our peak consumption is around 600Gw (summer day, 5:00 PM), then our thermal conversion at that point is 1800 Gw, or the equivalent in BTUs.

"And it will all cost as much as Joe Biden plans to spend on addressing climate change: some $3 trillion over a decade." $3 trillion / 10 years = $300 billion per year, or essentially 300Gw of new power plant investment each year (assuming utility costs of $1 per watt). Most of this, of course, is storage and transmission capacity, rather than outright generation.

Nuclear is not an option - existing plants aren't competitive. Anything with a boiler is uncompetitive. There are reasons we don't use steam locomotives, and they are similar to the reasons coal and nuclear plants are phasing out.

"Existing technology" of course is a laughable metric, since efficiencies, energy densities, and costs are changing fast. It might still cost $3 trillion due to f***ups. S*** happens. We'd spend the money anyway, even if it was to preserve the status quo. Power plants depreciate over 30 years.

Is Big Oil Doomed To Repeat The Coal Industry's Mistakes?
By Haley Zaremba - Aug 30, 2020, 4:00 PM CDT

Until this year, alarmists proclaiming the end of oil were often dismissed as crackpots or overly optimistic environmentalists. But the spread of the novel coronavirus and its unprecedented disruption of the global economy and many of the stalwart industries at its core has amplified the discussion about life after oil and brought it into the mainstream. This year’s headlines have been full of oil obituaries, from shale companies falling into bankruptcy like dominoes to think piece after think piece saying goodbye to the oil sector as a whole, from Sierra’s “The End of Oil Is Near” to Vice’s “The End of the Oil Age Is Upon Us.”

And it’s not all sensationalism or overreaction, either. Even Big Oil itself seems to see the writing on the wall, and has been moving swiftly away from oil exploration towards more lucrative ventures now that “Big Oil’s Most Profitable Business Is No Longer Oil.” In Europe especially, Big Oil seems to be accepting the inevitability of an impending global energy transition and is taking the first steps to transform itself into Big Energy.
“Nine years ago, ExxonMobil was the most valuable corporation in the world,” The Houston Chronicle wrote on Friday. “Last week, Dow Jones removed the stock from its industrial index that is supposed to represent the U.S. economy. Exxon’s market capitalization has dropped from $400 billion in 2011 to just $175 billion today, and the oil business is no longer as important to the U.S. economy.”


But Big Oil in the United States has responded very differently to its decline than its European counterpart. Instead of innovating and evolving, the United States’ response seems to be: deny...until you die. “Oil executives talk a lot about how their industry will bounce back after the coronavirus pandemic passes, but the truth is their business is in long-term, secular decline,” writes the Houston Chronicle. “No matter who wins November’s elections, we need to find new businesses to replace the oil and gas industry in Texas to avoid economic decay.”

Lucky(ish) for the oil industry, however, they are not the first energy sector to age out of the United States economy. For a little lesson from history, U.S. oil needs to look no further than the U.S. coal sector. “Old timers like to say the oil business has seen bad times before, and that every bust is followed by a boom. [...] Once the price of crude jumps, Texas will be rolling in money again,” continues the Chronicle report.

“You know who used to talk that way? Coal company executives.” And we all know how that story ended.

Related: Oil Major Equinor Stops Drilling In U.S. Shale Patch

Also noting a contrast between the U.S. and Europe, the Houston Chronicle writes, “While European oil company CEOs have announced plans to transition from oil to natural gas and eventually to climate-friendlier forms of energy, the American oil industry continues to demand government bailouts and protections. Coal companies did the same, and look where they ended up.”

In this context, recent articles about the shale sector emerging from the pandemic stronger than ever before and $100 barrels of shale oil just on the horizon are disturbingly reminiscent of when chairman and CEO of Peabody Energy Gregory Boyce said in 2011 that coal was about to be bigger than ever and scoffed at the suggestion that natural gas would unseat coal in the U.S. energy mix. “We are at the early stages of a long-term supercycle for global coal demand with hypergrowth being driven by soaring energy needs,” he said in a now laughable quote.

The message here for U.S. oil execs is loud and clear. Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. It’s time to evolve to meet a changing global energy industry, not dig their heels in--and get left behind.


By Haley Zaremba for Oilprice.com
CALGARY
Protesters call for police defunding, trans rights at afternoon rally


Author of the article:Alanna Smith
Publishing date:Aug 30, 2020 • 
Hundreds came out to march in the Defund the Police national protest along with Black Trans Lives Matter and DefundYYC, with the support of Idle No More through downtown Calgary on Saturday, August 29, 2020. PHOTO BY DARREN MAKOWICHUK /Postmedia

Several hundred Calgarians rallied in solidarity with people in cities across Canada to defund the police and redistribute funds into community supports.

The local rally began at Sien Lok Park in Calgary’s core on Saturday afternoon before participants marched through the downtown streets to city hall — pausing at busy intersections with their fists in the air while chanting “Black Lives Matter,” “Black Trans Lives Matter” and “No justice, no peace, no racist police.”

Calgary’s weekend rally was organized by Defund YYC and the local Black Lives Matter chapter, with support from Idle No More and the Land Back movement.

“We don’t want to abolish the police department. We want to defund the police department and the reason for this is Calgary has one of the richest police departments in the whole country,” said Kay Layton, executive director of the Black Lives Matter chapter in Calgary.

“Money equals power and, as we can see, police have been abusing their power.”

The annual policing budget in Calgary exceeded $400 million last year.

While Calgarians took to the streets so did hundreds of others in cities across the country, including Toronto, Montreal, Ottawa, London and Moncton, drawing attention to police brutality and systemic racism.

We’re here at Sien Lok Park for today’s #DefundThePolice national protest, taking place in cities across Canada. @calgaryherald @calgarysun #yyc pic.twitter.com/3TJgL6S5K4— Alanna Smith (@alanna_smithh) August 29, 2020

The nationwide rallies came just days after Jacob Blake, a Black man from Wisconsin, was shot multiple times by police there, further igniting outrage in the U.S. and elsewhere.

The incident involving Blake is the latest in numerous high-profile cases and killings where Black people have been the subject of police brutality. Layton said “it’s been a rough year” before talking about a video recording of Blake being shot.
Hundreds came out to march in the Defund the Police National Protest along with Black Trans Lives Matter and DefundYYC, with the support of Idle No More through downtown Calgary on Saturday, August 29, 2020. PHOTO BY DARREN MAKOWICHUK /Postmedia

“We ain’t even over George Floyd. We ain’t even over Breonna Taylor. We ain’t over Michael Brown. We ain’t over Trayvon Martin and Tamir Rice. We ain’t over Sandra Bland,” he said.

“Every time we get to the point where we’re wiping our tears off our face, some bulls–t like this happens again and we have to come out here and fight for freedom again.”

The Calgary march coincided with the Stonewall March and Rally organized by Rights for All Refugees in Canada (RARICA NOW) to support LGBTQ rights.

RARICA founder Abedayo Katiiti led much of the protest speaking about the importance of celebrating and protecting Black trans lives.

“Stonewall means fight back,” said Katiiti at city hall, holding a Black Panther figurine. “Black trans lives matter. We are a group of people who are committed to centring and serving the most marginalized members of our communities leaving nobody behind.”

The Stonewall uprising took place in New York City in 1969 after police raided a bar that served the city’s gay, lesbian and transgender community which sparked a series of demonstrations.

“This laid the foundation for the (continued) reclaiming of Pride and centring the queer, trans, Indigenous, Black, people of colour voices in restoring the radical and (anti-oppressive) roots of the queer revolution,” said Katiiti.
Hundreds came out to march in the Defund the Police National Protest along with Black Trans Lives Matter and DefundYYC, with the support of Idle No More through downtown Calgary on Saturday, August 29, 2020. PHOTO BY DARREN MAKOWICHUK /Postmedia

Other participants shared their personal experiences, spoke about solidarity with other movements, drew attention to ongoing issues of racism that impact Black and Indigenous people and the importance of ongoing allyship from white people.

Speaker Faisal Kirumira said: “The question today is not if we defund the police, what will happen to the police? The question is if we do not defund the police what will happen to the Black lives being lost? If we do not defund the police, what will happen to the Indigenous lives being lost?”

LJ Joseph, vice-president of Calgary’s Black Lives Matter chapter, said people can find more information about the defund the police movement at blacklivesmatteryyc.com or defund.ca — where pre-composed emails and social media posts are available to send to local politicians.

There were some agitators present at the Saturday rally but the protest remained peaceful.
Hundreds came out to march in the Defund the Police national protest along with Black Trans Lives Matter and DefundYYC, with the support of Idle No More through downtown Calgary on Saturday, August 29, 2020. PHOTO BY DARREN MAKOWICHUK /Postmedia

Hundreds attend Calgary protest to defund police and support Black trans lives

Nationwide protests scheduled in multiple Canadian cities to defund police

CBC News · Posted: Aug 29, 2020

Demonstrators hold signs at a rally in Calgary calling for police to be defunded. (CBC)

Hundreds attended a demonstration in Calgary today in conjunction with a nationwide effort to defund the police and redistribute those funds into community initiatives.

The rally, which was organized by the Defund YYC group and the Black Lives Matter chapter in Calgary, began at 1 p.m. at Sien Lok Park in southwest Calgary before demonstrators marched to city hall for a rally that started at 2:30 p.m.

LJ Joseph, vice-president of Calgary's Black Lives Matter chapter, said Defund YYC had partnered with Black Trans Lives Matter, which had already planned to hold a rally Saturday before the nationwide protests were scheduled.

"First, we want people to rally behind Black trans lives, because they matter," Joseph said. "And then, obviously, the police sometimes aren't keeping them safe, and that's why it's important for them to have this defund movement behind them."

ANALYSIS The complexity and the urgency behind calls to defund the Calgary police

Defunding the police, Joseph said, means redistributing funds from policing into underfunded social programs. Calgary's police budget is funded by more than $400 million each year.

"I understand that people are thinking, well, if you take money away from police, there will be less police and more crime," Joseph said. "But if you take police off of certain programs and put them back on patrol, you don't need more cops. We're not asking for you to dismantle the police."

The City of Calgary is set to meet with the Calgary Police Service on Sept. 10 to discuss how to address systemic racism.

LJ Joseph with Black Lives Matter says she'll be waiting to hear what comes of the city's meeting with Calgary police next month. (CBC)

Other rallies were scheduled today in cities such as Montreal, Toronto and Ottawa. Saturday's rallies came the same week as the shooting of Jacob Blake, a Black man who was shot by police in the back seven times as he attempted to enter his vehicle in Kenosha, Wis.
It will take 'a miracle' for Wisconsin man shot by police to walk again: family lawyer

Saturday's Calgary event was also held with the support of Idle No More and the Land Back movement.

"Land Back is an integral movement with the aim to end colonialism which supports anti-Blackness and oppression," organizers said in a release.

"The defund the police movement aims to reorganize society to support humanity rather than simply interrupt crime caused by the lack of community support."

Partway through the march, protesters took a knee and raised a fist in solidarity.

The organizers behind Calgary's event asked participants to practice physical distancing, wear a mask and use hand sanitizer.

Aug 30, 2020 8:36 AM MT
Federal education funding still in limbo days before Alberta back-to-school

Author of the article:Jason Herring Publishing date:Aug 30, 2020 •
Education Minister Adriana LaGrange updates Albertans on the school re-entry plan for the 2020-21 school year. PHOTO BY CHRIS SCHWARZ /Government of Alberta


There is still no timeline for when school authorities will be able to access Alberta’s share of the $2 billion in federal funding pledged last week to support provincial school reopening plans.

The Alberta government said it had not yet received any of its $262.8 million cut of the funding announced Tuesday by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, with school districts in the province only days away from welcoming back students for the fall semester amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Given that the funding was suddenly announced on Tuesday, officials are still working out details on how this funding will be distributed to Alberta’s school authorities,” said Colin Aitchison, press secretary to Education Minister Adriana LaGrange, in a statement.

“At this point I cannot give a timeline as we have not received the funding from the Federal Government yet.”

Alberta’s contentious school re-entry will see most students in the province return to the classroom in the coming days.

The Calgary Board of Education will have its first day of classes Tuesday, with the Calgary Catholic School District opening its doors to students the following days. Both districts are staggering re-entry to help students adjust to new measures, which will include masking, one-way corridors and socially distanced drop-offs.

The federal funding in Alberta equates to about $354 per student. It is expected to come in two instalments, with the first arriving this fall.

Trudeau said Wednesday provinces have broad discretion on how to spend the money, given education is a provincial jurisdiction.

"The Federal dollars would equate to about $354 per student". 128,000 students expected to attend the #WeAreCBE this year. $45 million+ would help us address rising costs due to #COVID19. #ABCovid19 #abed #yycbe #ableg #abpoli https://t.co/Z0kXHwzFTa— Julie Hrdlicka (@julie_hrdlicka) August 27, 2020

Alberta NDP Opposition education critic Sarah Hoffman said Saturday there should be no excuse from the provincial government for not starting funding distribution to local school authorities.

She cited Ontario, where provincial officials provided a breakdown of how they would use their funding the same day as the federal announcement, as proof the Alberta government should have been able to set a plan in motion more quickly.

“I think it’s reprehensible that they have been sitting on this funding. They should have funded improved learning and working conditions when they closed schools more than five months ago. They should have had plans in place,” Hoffman said.

“For the province to stand in the way of those federal dollars being able to reduce risk for kids when they go back this week is dangerous. … The province should immediately give this money over to the school authorities who are actually working with kids.”

Hoffman added even if there is a delay in cash flow from the federal government, she thinks the UCP government could alert school boards of how much money they will have to spend so they can begin hiring additional teachers.

To date, Alberta has spent $10 million in school re-entry, directed towards personal protective equipment for schools. They have otherwise instructed school boards to use reserve funds totalling about $363 million province-wide to pay for costs related to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Aitchison said the province will ensure school districts have resources necessary to facilitate a safe return to school, including by potentially adjusting the provincial school re-entry plan.


He added school authorities would be able to use funding for expenses related to COVID-19 including facilitating online learning, teaching and substitute costs, transportation and increased cleaning.

Bankrupt Hertz seeks $5.4M in govt bonuses

Twitter

Just months after Hertz World wide Holdings Inc. shelled out $16.2 million in excess pay back meant to maintain executives from leaving as the coronavirus pandemic decimated the vacation business, the automobile rental enterprise would like to move out $14.6 million additional in bonuses.
Prior to filing for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in Could, the company laid off 1000’s of staff while handing out retention bonuses or “stay fork out” to leaders.
At the starting of the month, the firm elevated $29 million, offering its possible worthless inventory before regulators at the Securities and Exchange Fee elevated thoughts.
Motor vehicle exiting the vacant car or truck rental spot at Hertz«s Motor vehicle Rental Parking location at Miami Intercontinental Airport (Image by: Kike Calvo/Universal Photographs Group by way of Getty Photos)
In accordance to a Saturday report in The Wall Road Journal, retention payments are just about unachievable for executives after a company documents for individual bankruptcy.
Despite the fact that Hertz is concealing considerably of the details about which workforce will get the hottest round of dollars, Chief Fiscal Officer Jamere Jackson resigned this month and forfeited his stipend.
Styled as “incentive” bonuses in courtroom paperwork submitted Thursday, the new spherical of payouts would have to be approved by the judge overseeing Hertz’s bankruptcy.
In the proposal, the chief executive officer and 13 other prime managers of Hertz Corp. would share as much as $5.4 million, Bloomberg noted Saturday.
If the decide enables a 2nd bonus spherical, the Journal notes that Main Govt Paul Stone — who took the title and a $700,000 “retention bonus” in May well — could be entitled to an further $1.6 million.
Hundreds of workforce beneath Stone could also be presented money below the incentive plans, with executives and senior administration obtaining payments in the variety of $10,000 to $15,000.
Although “retention” bonuses had been banned by Congress 15 a long time ago, individual bankruptcy lawyers began crafting incentive programs to maneuver all around the ban.
General performance benefits have because been routinely permitted — in a lot of cases, over the protests of federal individual bankruptcy watchdogs.
In 2020, the CEOs of GNC Holdings Inc., Ascena Retail Group Inc., Personalized Brands Inc., J.C. Penney Co., Neiman Marcus Group Ltd., and other companies have acquired this kind of payment under equivalent situation.

Mars dust devil! Curiosity rover places Red World twister (photos)



 On Aug. 9, 2020, NASA’s Curiosity Mars rover photographed a dust devil swirling through Gale Crater. The twister is relocating from remaining to appropriate, at border amongst the darker and lighter slopes.  (Graphic credit score: NASA/JPL-Caltech)
NASA’s Mars rover Curiosity has noticed a dust devil swirling through the parched Red Earth landscape.
Curiosity photographed the dust satan on Aug. 9, capturing a spectral feature dancing along the border amongst dark and light-weight slopes inside of Mars’ 96-mile-large (154 kilometers) Gale Crater.
TOYOTAIZATION REDUX

When the Toyota Way Meets Industry 4.0

The real message here is: "adopt and adapt technology that supports your people and processes."

Jeffrey Liker
AUG 27, 2020

Society has reached the point where one can push a button and be immediately deluged with technical and managerial information. This is all very convenient, of course, but if one is not careful there is a danger of losing the ability to think. We must remember that in the end it is the individual human being who must solve the problems.

—Eiji Toyoda, Creativity, Challenge and Courage, Toyota Motor Corporation, 1983

In the 1990s Toyota’s principles of production equipment became “simple, slim, and flexible,” which some people might interpret as “go slow and be cautious in adopting new technology.” In today’s age of lightning speed technological change, particularly in the digital world, I believe that would be a mistake. The real message here is: "adopt and adapt technology that supports your people and processes." The starting point is this: where are real needs that technology can address to help achieve your goals? This is a question of pulling technology based on the opportunity, instead of pushing the technology because it is the latest fad.

This simple lesson grows more relevant every day. It seems clear to me that technology in the digital age can support lean thinking. The key issue is to avoid the temptation to buy and implement the latest gee-whiz digital tools, and instead to thoughtfully integrate technology with highly developed people and processes.

Toyota’s largest supplier, Denso, has made remarkable progress in adapting real time data collection, the Internet of Things (IOT), and data analytics to support lean systems and amplify kaizen. At the center of Denso’s approach is people, and their ability to sense reality and think creatively. Denso demonstrates that technology has the greatest potential when there is a culture of continuous improvement and the people are highly developed.

Raja Shembekar, vice president of Denso’s North American Production Innovation Center, is the chief architect of their use of the Internet of Things (IOT). As a starting point Raja benchmarked other companies thought to be leaders in the technology. He found a lot of what he came to call “IOT wallpaper” with little real application. Cool-looking displays, but no real problem solving. He concluded that Denso needed to take charge and lead their own effort, starting with treating the Battlecreek, Michigan plant as a pilot site. He built a small team, with about half IOT experts, and half shopfloor people like quality managers who were good at software. Together, they started to work on real problems identified at the gemba.

As one example they have huge brazing ovens needed to make aluminum heat exchangers. It is critical to keep the temperature constant throughout the oven and they do this with twelve expensive fans each the size of a table. If a single fan stops, it take 12 hours to cool the oven down from 700 celsius, 12 hours to replace the fan, and 12 hours to bring it back up. With tiny sensors on each fan and an IOT system they can monitor the condition and alert maintenance when there is any degradation, long before a shutdown. In one case, Denso data scientists reported to maintenance that a fan was going to fail in 58 hours and they should replace it. Raja explained: “Maintenance did not believe it. But we asked them to change it anyway. They took the fan out. Half the blades on the fan had disintegrated. They were totally shocked that they had no idea this was happening and we could provide that prediction.”

In another example they focused on direct aid to the operator of an automated assembly process with robots. We are used to the idea of operators filling out a control chart with upper and lower control limits and taking action before the process is out of control. This system continuously develops a control chart in real-time. When observing we noticed a few minutes early that the process was headed out of control and the operator made an adjustment quickly fixing the problem.

A more ambitious project that cuts to the heart of TPS is automated standardized work support. Raja found a Stanford professor working on “motion technology.” A camera videos a person and can in real time analyze the data with AI, for example chunking actions into work steps. Raja saw the potential for revolutionizing standard work and collaborated with the professor who now has a thriving company. The output will be familiar to those experienced with standardized work—steps and times versus takt, operator balance charts, and in effect real time auditing that identifies deviations from the standardized work. The analyst does not have to spend time creating all these sheets and can call up all cases where there was a line stop, or all cases where there was a certain type of deviation from standard, and go back and watch the video. What was the operator actually doing at that point? This technology is getting broad interest from around the world—including from Toyota.

Does the Technology Deskill, Replace, or Enhance?

A key question going back to when I first started studying the impact of computer-integrated technology in the 1980s is: does the technology deskill, replace, or enhance? And the answer then and now is that it depends on management philosophy. Consider two different approaches: mechanistic and organic. From a mechanistic perspective, the value of technology is clear—replace people, monitor those remaining, and control them with clear instructions on what to do. Implement the technology quickly and broadly to remove the unpredictable human element.

From an organic-systems perspective, the value of the technology is very different. When combined with highly developed people motivated toward goals of serving customer and helping the company, it can multiply kaizen—faster and better.

Raja made it clear what side of the fence he was on. Denso’s focus was not on using the technology to eliminate people, though he had no doubt that over time there would be a need for fewer people in the factory. While there would be cases where a closed-loop technical system diagnosed and automatically corrected problems, there would be plenty of issues that required human ingenuity and intervention. In fact, Raja is convinced that the skill requirements of the people need to grow.

“We will always need people, but their skill level needs to be completely shifted over time. The technology provides data that allows the associate and the team leaders at the gemba to provide a far higher level of decision making. In the past they would just fill out the paperwork, but by the time they did all that they had either no time or energy to really comprehend the data. If they want to see trends from say five days ago or across people, that just wasn't there. What this has provided is what we now call fast PDCA. We can’t afford to have PDCA that takes 3 weeks anymore. We want a PDCA done before the end of that shift.”

At Denso in Japan, they operate on the belief that IOT does not cut people out of the loop, but rather provides superior information to people about the process. The power of big data and artificial intelligence is to give the operator information just-in-time that they previously could only guess at. But Denso expects the operator to use that information creatively to find the root cause and solve the problem through kaizen. Denso calls this “collaborative creation and growth of human, things, and equipment.” One irony might come out of this. Historically, a major role of industrial engineers was to reduce the number of workers needed. Now, the technology might enable the workers to the point they can eliminate the industrial engineers.

Balancing Adoption of the Latest Technology with Effectiveness

Toyota is a technologically advanced company and has been for decades—shut down its computer systems and you shut down the company. But Toyota is not interested in being trendy and making adoption of new technology an end onto itself. Just as Toyota refuses to schedule parts made in one department to be pushed onto another, Toyota refuses to allow an information technology or advanced manufacturing technology department to push technology onto departments that do the value-added work of designing and building cars. Any information technology must meet the acid test of supporting people and processes and prove it adds value before it is implemented broadly. And then the ownership for introducing the new technology falls on existing management. They will run it, they will be responsible for meeting the targets, so they should lead the introduction.

The problem as I see it is that people living in the computer software world seem to believe if they can do a demonstration based on a simulated example, it should translate seamlessly into solving real problems in the outside world. That is the thinking that got companies in trouble back in the 1980s. And it was the situation that Raja of Denso encountered in the 21st century when he was exploring Industry 4.0 software. I was skeptical before talking to Raja about the bold concept of a fully-automated factory with everything run by internet connections, big data, and AI--and Raja confirmed my suspicions that it could be a lot of smoke and mirrors. On the other hand, I also was awakened to the strength of the technology. I am now convinced it is real and it includes the technologies missing from early failed attempts to computerize the factory in the 1980s. It seems they were not completely wrong about the potential, but just early.

It also became clear in seeing what Raja has been doing at Denso’s plant in Battle Creek that Industry 4.0 is not a disruptive force that makes TPS irrelevant, but rather can be an enabler that builds on TPS culture and thinking. After all, the Internet of Things necessarily includes things. And if the things are poorly designed, poorly laid out, and poorly maintained software will not solve the problem.

The difference between Denso and companies that are creating electronic wallpaper seems to be a matter of mindset. Denso starts with the problem and then builds the social and technical systems to help address the problem. It builds on its existing culture of disciplined execution and problem solving. Without this, companies are left to throwing the technology at the wall and hoping it sticks. The principles of TPS will not disappear from a company like Denso, but the way the factory operates under TPS + IOT will be very different.

I was fascinated by the IOT technologies I saw at Denso, but in the back of my mind I could not help but guess at the concerns of Toyota Production System. TPS is about forcing people to think deeply to solve problems. Will computer systems make us lazy thinkers? How can we marry the powerful information coming out of the computers with the creativity of people in developing and testing ideas for improvement?

I was encouraged by Akio Toyoda’s thoughts. It is clear he sees the possibility of combining the best of the new technology with the creativity of thinking people In a recent speech he said:

“Two concepts -- automation with people and Just-in-Time -- are the pillars of the TPS. What both have in common is that people are at the center. I believe that the more automation advances, the more the ability of the people using it will be put to the test. Machines cannot improve unless people do, too. Developing people with skills that can equal machines and senses that surpass sensors is a fundamental part of Toyota's approach.”

This article is from the upcoming revised edition of The Toyota Way, Second Edition (due out October 2020), which includes Principle 8: Adopt and Adapt Technology that Supports your People and Processes. It originally appeared in the Lean Post, the blog of the Lean Enterprise Institute, and is used with permission.


Don't Let Complexity Disrupt Your Product Delivery Process

New survey shows growing importance of digital transformation as manufacturers pivot to meet needs within digital economy.

Peter Fretty
AUG 28, 2020


As the digital economy progresses, manufacturers are embracing the importance of leveraging digital data-based technologies. One of the key aspects of succeeding within a digital economy is the ability to rapidly design, develop, produce and deliver the products an evolving marketplace demands. Of course, just because the digital economy is all about delivering an easy seamless experience, that does not mean it is easy to delivery, even with today’s advanced technologies.

Gocious, a product decision analytics platform that harnesses data for manufacturers to get to production faster, recently conducted a survey spotlighting the growing urgency for digitally transformed product configuration. And the result paint a pretty clear picture. Roughly 60% of manufacturers surveyed report 6 months or longer to plan and develop one product, and 62% have initiatives in place to reduce the product launch cycle time. However, less than 10% of manufacturers are using product definition tools to help automate, visualize or analyze product configurations.

Unfortunately, complexity is a common concern. Specifically, half of the survey respondents say they have 10 or more products in their product line with a growing number of product variations adding complexity to product release cycles. Adding to the complexity, on average 43 people are involved in production definition process with an average of 33 people needed for product approvals.

Gocious CTO Maziar Adl tells IndustryWeek, they were surprised by the low number of organizations adopting new ways to reduce their time to market during a moment when the speed of change is rapidly increasing due to the Industry 4.0 evolution.

“It was also interesting to see just how many people are involved in approving a product release. Based on both of these instances, we can see more clearly how more collaboration is necessary even early-on in product development,” he says. “Additionally, we were surprised to see the number of people using tools that are more specifically tailored to delivering software solutions, compared to manufactured products. To me this indicates that people want better solutions than the traditional spreadsheet approach and are prepared to compromise on capability to get what they want.”

The key takeaways? Digital transformation is happening, and some manufacturers are ill prepared to face the challenges of being left behind, explains Adl. “Many are too comfortable and need to look more closely at the massive need for acceleration within their internal digital transformation journeys. Manufacturers need to find ways to become more agile in delivering product. Things are shifting much more quickly than before,” he says.

According to Adl, prior to releasing ideas for build and detail design, manufacturers should first look at early stages of product line definition and planning to reduce waste and complexity. “If a manufacturer is not in control of their product complexity, then any initiatives that may be considered to shorten delivery time cycles will not have as much of an impact as they could. A lack of complexity management can ultimately create waste,” he says.