Shifts in flowering phases of plants due to reduced insect density

Research group of Jena University and iDiv uses novel research method to study effect of insect decline on plant biodiversity

FRIEDRICH-SCHILLER-UNIVERSITAET JENA

 

IMAGE: DOCTORAL CANDIDATE JOSEPHINE ULRICH FROM THE RESEARCH TEAM OF THE UNIVERSITY OF JENA. view more 

CREDIT: (IMAGE: ANNE GÜNTHER/UNIVERSITY OF JENA)

(Jena, Germany) It still sounds unlikely today, but declines in insect numbers could well make it a frequent occurrence in the future: fields full of flowers, but not a bee in sight.

A research group of the University of Jena (Germany) and the German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research Halle-Jena-Leipzig (iDiv) has discovered that insects have a decisive influence on the biodiversity and flowering phases of plants. If there is a lack of insects where the plants are growing, their flowering behaviour changes. This can result in the lifecycles of the insects and the flowering periods of the plants no longer coinciding. If the insects seek nectar at the wrong time, some plants will no longer be pollinated.

Innovative research method in iDiv Ecotron

Ecosystems are changing around the world, in particular due to global warming and altered land use. Insect species are dying out and the insect biomass is decreasing. Researchers have therefore studied how the biodiversity of plants is changing in the context of climate change. For this purpose, various climate scenarios have been simulated, using different temperatures and precipitation.

In a new study reported in the specialist journal Frontiers in Plant Science, the Working Group Biodiversity of Plants of the University of Jena, led by Prof. Christine Römermann, presents a different research approach. In cooperation with scientists from iDiv, led by Prof. Nico Eisenhauer, the researchers are focusing on the influence of invertebrates, such as insects, on the biodiversity and flowering behaviour of plants.

"We know that the insect biomass is decreasing," says Josephine Ulrich, a doctoral candidate from Römermann's team, referring to a study from 2017 which detected that insects had declined by 75 per cent over the previous 30 years.

The Jena research group has now studied in detail for the first time the extent to which decreasing insect density influences plant development. Whereas previous studies had only carried out field experiments, the research team used the "Ecotron", an iDiv research facility where identical climatic situations can be simulated in artificial ecosystems and observed with cameras.

In their experiment, the researchers studied how plant composition and plant development change if the number of insects falls by three-quarters.

Mismatch between plant and animal worlds

Ulrich and her colleagues discovered that the reduced insect biomass brings about a change in plant species. It is especially the dominant plant species, such as red clover, which become more prevalent. The development of the flowering period also changes as insect density declines. Some of the plants studied flowered earlier and others later.

"These changes can lead to mismatches between plant and animal species, which lead to adverse consequences for the ecosystem," says Ulrich, the lead author of the study. Examples are the food supply of insects and pollination success. This deterioration in the ecosystem function could entail further losses of insect and plant species. An additional consequence could be that plants become increasingly infested with pests. Due to the falling numbers of insects that feed on aphids, for example, these pests could spread unchecked.

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Haunted house researchers investigate the mystery of playing with fear

ASSOCIATION FOR PSYCHOLOGICAL SCIENCE

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VIDEO: HAUNTED HOUSES, HORROR MOVIES, AND GHOST STORIES CAN BE CHILLING DELIGHTS, PROVIDED THE FEAR THEY EVOKE REMAINS IN A "GOLDILOCKS ZONE " THAT IS NEITHER TOO TERRIFYING NOR TOO TAME. view more 

CREDIT: APS

Chainsaw-wielding maniacs and brain-munching zombies are common tropes in horror films and haunted houses, which, in normal years, are popular Halloween-season destinations for thrill seekers. But what makes such fearsome experiences so compelling, and why do we actively seek them out in frightful recreational settings?

New research accepted for publication in the journal Psychological Science reveals that horror entertains us most effectively when it triggers a distinct physical response--measured by changes in heart rate--but is not so scary that we become overwhelmed. That fine line between fun and an unpleasant experience can vary from person to person.

"By investigating how humans derive pleasure from fear, we find that there seems to be a 'sweet spot' where enjoyment is maximized," said Marc Malmdorf Andersen, a researcher at the Interacting Minds Center at Aarhus University and lead author of the paper. "Our study provides some of the first empirical evidence on the relationship between fear, enjoyment, and physical arousal in recreational forms of fear."

For years, researchers have suspected that physiological arousal, such as a quickening pulse and a release of hormones in the brain, may play a key role in explaining why so many people find horror movies and haunted houses so attractive.

Until now, however, a direct relationship between arousal and enjoyment from these types of activities has not been established. "No prior studies have analyzed this relationship on subjective, behavioral, as well as physiological levels," said Andersen.

To explore this connection, Andersen and his colleagues studied how a group of 110 participants responded to a commercial haunted house attraction in Vejle, Denmark. The researchers fitted each participant with a heart rate monitor, which recorded real-time data as they walked through the attraction. The nearly 50-room haunted house produced an immersive and intimate live-action horror experience. The attraction used a variety of scare tactics to frighten guests, including frequent jump scares, in which zombies or other monstrous abominations suddenly appeared or charged toward the guest.

The researchers also studied the participants in real time through closed-circuit monitors inside the attraction. This enabled the team to make first-hand observations of participants' reactions to the most frightening elements, and, subsequently, to have independent coders analyze participants' behavior and responses. After the experience, participants evaluated their level of fright and enjoyment for each encounter. By comparing these self-reported experiences with the data from the heart rate monitors and surveillance cameras, the researchers were able to compare the fear-related and enjoyment-related elements of the attraction on subjective, behavioral, and physiological levels.

What Is Recreational Fear?

Recreational fear refers to the mixed emotional experience of feeling fear and enjoyment at the same time. Fear is generally considered to be an unpleasant emotion that evolved to protect people from harm. Paradoxically, humans sometimes seek out frightening experiences for purely recreational purposes. "Past studies on recreational fear, however, have not been able to establish a direct relationship between enjoyment and fear," said Andersen.

Studies on fearful responses to media, for example, have mostly been conducted in laboratory settings with relatively weak stimuli, such as short video clips from frightening films. Such experimental setups can sometimes make it difficult to measure physiological arousal because responses may be modest in a laboratory context.

"Conducting our study at a haunted attraction, where participants are screaming with both fear and delight, made this task easier," said Andersen. "It also presented unique challenges, such as the immensely complex logistics associated with conducting empirical studies in a 'messy' real-world context like a haunted house."

Discovering the "Goldilocks Zone"

Plotting the relationship between self-reported fear and enjoyment, the researchers discovered an inverted U-shape trend, revealing an apparent sweet spot for fear where enjoyment is maximized.

"If people are not very scared, they do not enjoy the attraction as much, and the same happens if they are too scared," said Andersen. "Instead, it seems to be the case that a 'just-right' amount of fear is central for maximizing enjoyment."

The data also showed a similar inverted U-shape for the participants' heart rate signatures, suggesting that enjoyment is related to just-right deviations from a person's normal physiological state. However, when fearful encounters trigger large and long-lasting deviations from this normal state, as measured by pulse rates going up and down frequently over a longer period of time, unpleasant sensations often follow.

"This is strikingly similar to what scientists have found to characterize human play," said Andersen. "We know, for instance, that curiosity is often aroused when individuals have their expectations violated to a just-right degree, and several accounts of play stress the importance of just-right doses of uncertainty and surprise for explaining why play feels enjoyable."

In other words, when horror fans are watching Freddy Krueger on TV, reading a Stephen King novel, or screaming their way through a haunted attraction, they are essentially playing with fear.

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Psychological Science, the flagship journal of APS, is the leading peer-reviewed journal publishing empirical research spanning the entire spectrum of the science of psychology. Journalists may request an unedited copy of the manuscript by contacting news@psychologicalscience.org.

Hard physical work significantly increases the risk of dementia

UNIVERSITY OF COPENHAGEN THE FACULTY OF HEALTH AND MEDICAL SCIENCES

Research News

 

The muscles and joints are not the only parts of the body to be worn down by physical work. The brain and heart suffer too. A new study from the University of Copenhagen shows that people doing hard physical work have a 55-per cent higher risk of developing dementia than those doing sedentary work. The figures have been adjusted for lifestyle factors and lifetime, among other things.

The general view has been that physical activity normally reduces the risk of dementia, just as another study from the University of Copenhagen recently showed that a healthy lifestyle can reduce the risk of developing dementia conditions by half.

Here the form of physical activity is vital, though, says associate professor Kirsten Nabe-Nielsen from the Department of Public Health at the University of Copenhagen.

"Before the study we assumed that hard physical work was associated with a higher risk of dementia. It is something other studies have tried to prove, but ours is the first to connect the two things convincingly," says Kirsten Nabe-Nielsen, who has headed the study together with the National Research Centre for the Working Environment with help from Bispebjerg-Frederiksberg Hospital.

"For example, the WHO guide to preventing dementia and disease on the whole mentions physical activity as an important factor. But our study suggests that it must be a 'good' form of physical activity, which hard physical work is not. Guides from the health authorities should therefore differentiate between physical activity in your spare time and physical activity at work, as there is reason to believe that the two forms of physical activity have opposite effects," Kirsten Nabe-Nielsen says and explains that even when you take smoking, blood pressure, overweight, alcohol intake and physical activity in one's spare time into account, hard physical work is associated with an increased occurrence of dementia.

One of the study's co-authors is Professor MSO Andreas Holtermann from the National Research Centre for the Working Environment. He hopes the dementia study from the University of Copenhagen will contribute to shine a spotlight on the importance of prevention, as changes in the brain begin long before the person leaves the labour market.

"A lot of workplaces have already taken steps to improve the health of their staff. The problem is that it is the most well-educated and resourceful part of the population that uses these initiatives. Those with a shorter education often struggle with overweight, pain and poor physical fitness, even though they take more steps during the day and to a larger extent use their body as a tool. For workmen, it is not enough for example to avoid heavy lifts if they wish to remain in the profession until age 70. People with a shorter education doing manual labour also need to take preventive steps by strengthening the body's capacity via for example exercise and strength training," he says.

The study is based on data from the Copenhagen Male Study (CMS), which included 4,721 Danish men, who back in the 1970s reported data on the type of work they did on a daily basis. The study included 14 large Copenhagen-based companies, the largest being DSB, the Danish Defence, KTAS, the Postal Services and the City of Copenhagen.

Through the years, the researchers have compiled health data on these men, including data on the development of dementia conditions.

According to Kirsten Nabe-Nielsen, previous studies have suggested that hard physical work may have a negative effect on the heart blood circulation and thus also on the blood supply to the brain. This may for example lead to the development of cardiovascular diseases like high blood pressure, blood clots in the heart, heart cramps and heart failure.

The National Research Centre for the Working Environment continues to work on the results with a view to identifying healthier ways of doing hard physical work. They have therefore begun to collect data from social and healthcare assistants, child care workers and packing operatives, among others, in order to produce interventions meant to organise hard physical work in such a way that it has an 'exercise effect'.

They thus hope to see companies successfully change work procedures, ensuring for example that heavy lifts will have a positive effect rather than wear down the workers. The results will be published on an ongoing basis.

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Read the entire study, 'The effect of occupational physical activity on dementia: Results from the Copenhagen Male Study', in the Scandinavian Journal of Medicine and Science in Sports.

THAILAND PROTESTS UPDATES

Pro-democracy activists submit letter to German envoy as Parliament debates protests

Oct 27. 2020

Pro-democracy demonstrators read their statement outside the German embassy on Monday. Photo by: Korbphuk Phromrekha 

By The Nation

Pro-democracy demonstrators submitted a letter to the German embassy in Bangkok on Monday asking its government to investigate whether HM the King is ruling from German soil.


Student-led activists gather in front of the embassy in Bangkok after receiving support from large numbers of office workers, school and university students and seniors during their march from Sam Yan intersection.

Meanwhile, Democrat Party leader and deputy PM Jurin Laksanavisit told an extraordinary session of Parliament that a national reconciliation committee should be set up to solve the political crisis.

Pro-democracy demonstrators gathered at Sam Yan intersection from 3.30pm on Monday for a march down Rama IV Road to the German Embassy on Sathorn Road, where they arrived at 7pm. The student-led Free Youth protest group claimed that about 100,000 activists joined the rally. 





Student-led activists gather in front of the embassy in Bangkok after receiving support from large numbers of office workers, school and university students and seniors during their march from Sam Yan intersection.

Three rally leaders were invited inside the embassy to submit the letter to German Ambassador Georg Schmidt. 

Outside, rally representatives stood up before the large crowd to read the statement in Thai, English and German.

The statement recounted the authorities’ violent crackdown on October 16, when water cannon was used on peaceful protesters, as well as the arrest and detention of dozens of protest leaders.

They asked the German government to investigate whether HM the King is using Germany as a base to conduct Thai politics.

Such actions could potentially be a violation of German law or territorial sovereignty, they said. 

“The request is aimed at reinstating HM the King to Thailand so the Palace is placed under the Constitution and Thailand can return to being a genuine constitutional monarchy,” the statement said.

Demonstrators also raised a large banner in front of the embassy that read “Reform the Monarchy”, before ending their rally at about 9pm.

Meanwhile German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas said his government is continuing to look into the behaviour of HM the King, who tends to spend long stretches of time in Bavaria, Reuters reported on Monday.

“We are monitoring this long-term,” Reuters quoted Maas as saying. “It will have immediate consequences if there are things that we assess to be illegal.”

A two-day extraordinary session of Thai Parliament kicked off on Monday morning, with Paiboon Nititawan, an MP for the ruling Palang Pracharath Party, accusing protesters of trying to overthrow the monarchy.

Jurin Laksanavisit, leader of the ruling coalition’s Democrat Party, proposed that a national reconciliation committee be set up to find solutions to the political unrest.

Opposition leader and Pheu Thai Party chief Sompong Amornvivat called for PM Prayut Chan-o-cha to resign and release the protest leaders. Dozens of pro-democracy leaders have been arrested and temporarily released in the last two weeks, but eight remain in custody after being denied bail.

Phicharn Chaowapatanawong, MP for the opposition Move Forward Party, urged Parliament to open the door for a rewrite of the Constitution, including provisions related to the monarchy’s role.

THAI PROTEST LEADER 

Pai Dao Din reveals what he said to German ambassador
Politics Oct 27. 2020

From left : Protest leaders Jatupat Boonpattararaksa, Passarawalee Thanakijwibulpol and Warin Patrick McBlain pose for a photo in front of the German Embassy in Bangkok during the pro-democracy rally on Monday. Photo Credit: Pai Jatupat FB. 

By The Nation

Jatupat “Pai Dao Din” Boonpattararaksa has revealed details of what was said when three protest leaders met with German Ambassador Georg Schmidt on Monday.

Pai, Passarawalee Thanakijwibulpol and Warin Patrick McBlain handed over letters to the ambassador asking Germany to investigate whether HM the King was conducting Thai affairs from German soil. Warin handed over a letter from Khana Ratsadon International, the overseas branch of the student-led pro-democracy movement.

Pai recounted the conversation with the ambassador on Monday evening after he and his two friends entered the embassy at around 7.40pm following a protest march from Sam Yan.

“What I said was that there will be no peace without justice, no justice without telling the truth, and no one can tell the truth without freedom of expression,” Pai posted on Facebook.

He said he went on to explain that when HM King X ascended the throne, the lese majeste law was enforced against people who had shared a BBC Thai news biography of the King – an act for which Pai himself was jailed. Then, the Computer Crimes Act was imposed to suppress freedom of expression. This year, Wanchalearm Satsaksit was forcibly disappeared, he noted, referring to the kidnapping of a Thai political dissident living in exile in Phnom Penh.

He said he told the ambassador that since October 13, the government had cracked down on protesters by arresting 80 people, including youths and one individual with a mental disorder. 

“Now eight of our friends remain in the custody. We are being arrested because we want to reform the monarchy institution into a genuine constitutional monarchy,” said Pai, recounting the conversation with Schmidt.

He said he pointed out that Thailand’s state of emergency and special emergency decree violated basic rights – rights which are guaranteed by the German constitution. 

Pai said the ambassador pledged to forward the letters to the German government or Parliament for further action. The ambassador also said that “talking is a good starting point”, Pai said.

Protest leader Jutatip summoned over role in Oct 16 rally

Oct 27. 2020

Jutatip Sirikhan

By THE NATION

Pro-democracy activist Jutatip Sirikhan announced on Facebook on Tuesday that she has received a summons from Pathumwan Police Station for participating in the October 16 rally.

The summons was dated October 20.

Jutatip, a former president of the Student Union of Thailand and a core leader of the United Front of Thammasat and Demonstration, said it is intolerable that she is being charged for violating the emergency decree, when in reality she was at the protest exercising her right to demand better laws.

She also accused the government of trying to block people from fighting for their motherland. “I reproach all intimidation and violence. This battle must end in our generation,” she said.

The government has been widely slammed for using violence to disperse peaceful pro-democracy protesters from Pathumwan intersection on October 16.

Parliament clashes over opposition call for Prayut to quit

Oct 27. 2020


By The Nation

There were clashes in Parliament on Tuesday after the opposition Move Forward Party called on the prime minister to quit to help resolve the political crisis.

The government Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) immediately objected, saying that the resignation of the PM would inevitably trigger yellow-shirt protests, which would worsen the crisis.


Wiroj Lakkhanaadisorn

On day two of the extraordinary session, opposition MP Wiroj Lakkhanaadisorn of the Move Forward Party said General Prayut Chan-o-cha had lost all legitimacy and must resign to free the country from rule by the junta National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO).

He accused the government of adding heat to the crisis by seeking to force its viewpoint on citizens.


“We cannot get rid of people with different opinions. The government’s stance is crucial because the parliamentary mechanism must be used to resolve problems and create a safe space to talk with each other and reduce stress. But the government did the opposite. You did not listen to the voice of the people, and the PM thinks he has done nothing wrong”, said Wiroj.

He warned the government of the consequences of using sensitive issues to provoke violence, citing the 1976 Thammasat University massacre and 2010 crackdown on red shirts.

He added that institutional reforms should be discussed rationally in a safe space and an atmosphere of trust.

“I call for the prime minister to resign and the coalition government to withdraw, so we can elect a new PM without the shadow of NCPO to drive amendment of the Constitution. Mr Prime Minister, please make this sacrifice so that people can begin to move their future forward.”

Senator Thawil Pliensri accused Wiroj of spreading falsehoods by comparing the 1976 massacre and 2010 crackdown to the current crisis, where no violence had been used against protesters.


Chaiyawut Thanakamanusorn

Palang Pracharath MP Chaiyawut Thanakamanusorn added that protesters had dragged the monarchy into the debate and said they would not argue with the dog (government) but with the dog’s owner.

“The original Khana Ratsadon [revolutionary People’s Party] benefited the country in 1932, but how will its namesake in 2020 change the government,” he asked, referring to the student-led protest movement.

He said the movement operated by misrepresenting facts on social media, and questioned whether it was funded from abroad. In the past, certain groups had exploited popular protests to win political power, he said, adding that the goal this time was more than simply ousting the PM.

Chaiyawut then gave his thoughts on five options to resolve the crisis – resignation of the PM, dissolution of Parliament, a military coup, a national referendum on the protesters’ demands, and the government continuing as normal.

“The votes of 376 lawmakers are needed for the PM option. How can we create a new government without the Senate’s votes? We may follow the [protesters’] demand, but yellow shirts (royalists) will not be happy about it. If the current government stays, protesters will also come out. I don’t think the PM quitting or parliament disbanding are solutions; they would just buy more time,” said Chaiyawut.

ANA plans to transfer employees to Toyota Motor
International Oct 26. 2020

By The Japan News

ANA Holdings will ask several companies, including Toyota Motor Corp., to accept the secondment of employees, it has been learned.

The contents of a business restructuring plan, set to be announced Tuesday by ANA Holdings Inc., the holding company of All Nippon Airways Co. (ANA), have been revealed. By fiscal 2022, it plans to reduce the number of its employees by about 3,500.

The company faces an urgent need to cut personnel costs, which account for 30% of its fixed costs. At the same time, it must also secure employees in anticipation of the end of the novel coronavirus pandemic. ANA Holdings is believed to have concluded that Toyota Motor is able to accept secondment because of its financial scale and its capacity to take in employees.

For the 2020 fiscal year ending in March 2021, ANA Holdings is expected to post a record net loss of about ¥500 billion, as opposed to a net profit of ¥27.6 billion in the previous fiscal year. The company will carry out structural reforms to prepare for a prolonged slump in aviation demand.

In fiscal 2021, the company expects to cut costs by ¥80 billion through measures such as reducing the number of employees and selling aircraft.

The reduction of about 3,500 jobs will be realized through natural retirement, support for job changes and a freeze on hiring. According to the securities report of ANA Holdings, the entire group employed 46,000 people as of the end of March.


The company also plans to sell about 30 aircraft, mainly large models. As many as 59 large aircraft, such as the Boeing 777, have low fuel efficiency and are expensive to maintain.

ANA Holdings also plans to speed up the creation of other revenue sources. It plans to expand its so-called platform business to provide financial services by using customer data collected through its travel and financial operations.




Regarding international flights, which have seen a sharp drop in passengers, the company plans to prioritize resuming flights to and from Haneda Airport, due to high profit margins and high demand for international flights there.


Some flights from Narita Airport to Europe and Asia will be suspended for the time being.

Domestic flights will be concentrated at Haneda and Itami airports. ANA Holdings will also use Peach Aviation Ltd., a low-cost carrier under its wing, to promote joint operations with ANA.

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Wildfire smoke in US exposes millions to hazardous pollution
By MATTHEW BROWN and CAMILLE FASSETTOctober 15, 2020


1 of 18
FILE - In this Sept. 9, 2020, file photo, taken at 11:18 a.m., is a dark orange sky above Crissy Field and the city caused by heavy smoke from wildfires in San Francisco. Wildfires that scorched huge swaths of the West Coast churned out massive plumes of choking smoke that blanketed millions of people with hazardous pollution that spiked emergency room visits and that experts say could continue generating health problems for years. An Associated Press analysis of air quality data shows 5.2 million people in five states were hit with hazardous levels of pollution for at least a day. (AP Photo/Eric Risberg, File


SANTA CRUZ, Calif. (AP) — Wildfires churning out dense plumes of smoke as they scorch huge swaths of the U.S. West Coast have exposed millions of people to hazardous pollution levels, causing emergency room visits to spike and potentially thousands of deaths among the elderly and infirm, according to an Associated Press analysis of pollution data and interviews with physicians, health authorities and researchers.

Smoke at concentrations that topped the government’s charts for health risks and lasted at least a day enshrouded counties inhabited by more than 8 million people across five states in recent weeks, AP’s analysis shows

Major cities in Oregon, which has been especially hard hit, last month suffered the highest pollution levels they’ve ever recorded when powerful winds supercharged fires that had been burning in remote areas and sent them hurtling to the edge of densely populated Portland.

Medical complications began arising while communities were still enveloped in smoke, including hundreds of additional emergency room visits daily in Oregon, according to state health officials.

“It’s been brutal for me,” said Barb Trout, a 64-year-old retiree living south of Portland in the Willamette Valley. She was twice taken to the emergency room by ambulance following severe asthmatic reactions, something that had never happened to her before.

Trout had sheltered inside as soon as smoke rolled into the valley just after Labor Day but within days had an asthma attack that left her gasping for air and landed her in the ER. Two weeks later, when smoke from fires in California drifted into the valley, she had an even more violent reaction that Trout described as a near-death experience.

“It hit me quick and hard __ more so than the first one. I wasn’t hardly even breathing,” she recalled. After getting stabilized with drugs, Trout was sent home but the specter of a third attack now haunts her. She and her husband installed an alarm system so she can press a panic button when in distress to call for help.

“It’s put a whole new level on my life,″ she said. “I’m trying not to live in fear, but I’ve got to be really really cautious.”

In nearby Salem, Trout’s pulmonologist Martin Johnson said people with existing respiratory issues started showing up at his hospital or calling his office almost immediately after the smoke arrived, many struggling to breathe. Salem is in Marion county, which experienced eight days of pollution at hazardous levels during a short period, some of the worst conditions seen the West over the past two decades, according to AP’s analysis.

Most of Johnson’s patients are expected to recover but he said some could have permanent loss of lung function. Then there are the “hidden” victims who Johnson suspects died from heart attacks or other problems triggered by the poor air quality but whose cause of death will be chalked up to something else.

“Many won’t show up at the hospital or they’ll die at home or they’ll show up at hospice for other reasons, such as pneumonia or other complications,” Johnson said.

Based on prior studies of pollution-related deaths and the number of people exposed to recent fires, researchers at Stanford University estimated that as many as 3,000 people over 65 in California alone died prematurely after being exposed to smoke during a six-week period beginning Aug. 1. Hundreds more deaths could have occurred in Washington over several weeks of poor air caused by the fires, according to University of Washington researchers.

The findings for both states have not been published in peer-reviewed journals. No such estimate was available for Oregon.

A California heat wave on Thursday prompted warnings of extreme fire danger and some precautionary powerline shutdowns.

Wildfires are a regular occurrence in Western states but they’ve grown more intense and dangerous as a changing climate dries out forests thick with trees and underbrush from decades of fire suppression. What makes the smoke from these fires dangerous are particles too small for the naked eye to see that can be breathed in and cause respiratory problems.

On any given day, western fires can produce 10 times more particles than are produced by all other pollution sources including vehicle emissions and industrial facilities, said Shawn Urbanski, a U.S. Forest Service smoke scientist.

Fires across the West emitted more than a million tons of the particles in 2012, 2015 and 2017, and almost as much in 2018 — the year a blaze in Paradise, California killed 85 people and burned 14,000 houses, generating a thick plume that blanketed portions of Northern California for weeks. Figures for 2017 and 2018 are preliminary.

A confluence of meteorological events made the smoke especially bad this year: first, fierce winds up and down the coast whipped fires into a fury, followed in Oregon by a weather inversion that trapped smoke close to the ground and made it inescapable for days. Hundreds of miles to the south in San Francisco, smoke turned day into night, casting an eerie orange pall over a city where even before the pandemic facemasks had become common at times to protect against smoke.
Full Coverage: Wildfires

AP’s analysis of smoke exposure was based on U.S. Environmental Protection Agency data compiled from hundreds of air quality monitoring stations. Census data was used to determine the numbers of people living in affected areas of Oregon, Washington, California, Idaho and Montana.

At least 38 million people live in counties subjected to pollution considered unhealthy for the general population for five days, according to AP’s analysis. That included more than 25 million people in California, 7.2 million in Washington, 3.5 million in Oregon, 1 million in Idaho and 299,000 people in Montana.

The state totals for the number of people exposed to unhealthy air on a given day were derived from counties where at least one monitoring site registered unhealthy air.

Scientists studying long-term health problems have found correlations between smoke exposure and decreased lung function, weakened immune systems and higher rates of flu. That includes studies from northwestern Montana communities blanketed with smoke for weeks in 2017.

“Particulate matter enters your lungs, it gets way down deep, it irrigates the lining and it possibly enters your bloodstream,” said University of Montana professor Erin Landguth. “We’re seeing the effects.”

The coronavirus raises a compounding set of worries: An emerging body of research connects increased air pollution with greater rates of infection and severity of symptoms, said Gabriela Goldfarb, manager of environmental health for the Oregon Health Authority.

Climate experts say residents of the West Coast and Northern Rockies should brace for more frequent major smoke events, as warming temperatures and drought fuel bigger, more intense fires.

Their message is that climate change isn’t going to bring worse conditions: they are already here. The scale of this year’s fires is pushing the envelope” of wildfire severity modeled out to 2050, said Harvard university climate researcher Loretta Mickley

“The bad years will increase. The smoke will increase,” said Jeffrey Pierce an atmospheric scientist at Colorado State University. “It’s not unreasonable that we could be getting a 2020-type year every other year.”

CHARTS https://apnews.com/article/virus-outbreak-wildfires-health-oregon-fires-138efdcef21f15751fe1809a7853903b___

Brown reported from Billings, Montana.

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On Twitter follow Matthew Brown: @MatthewBrownAP and Camille Fassett: @camfassett.

Forecasters: Drought more likely than blizzards this winter
By SETH BORENSTEIN October 15, 2020

FILE - In this Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2020 file photo, dry desert soil cracks due to the lack of monsoon rainfall in Maricopa, Ariz. In a report released on Thursday, Oct. 15, 2020, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration forecasters see a dry winter for all of the south from coast-to-coast and say that could worsen an already bad drought. (AP Photo/Ross D. Franklin)

Don’t expect much of a winter wallop this year, except for the pain of worsening drought, U.S. government forecasters said Thursday.

Two-thirds of the United States should get a warmer than normal winter, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted. Only Washington, northern Idaho, Montana, the Dakotas and northwestern Minnesota, will get a colder than normal winter, forecasters said.

The forecast for winter rain and snow splits the nation in three stripes. NOAA sees the entire south from southern California to North Carolina getting a dry winter. Forecasters see wetter weather for the northernmost states: Oregon and Washington to Michigan and dipping down to Illinois, Indiana, Ohio and other parts of the Ohio Valley. The rest of the nation will likely be closer to normal, NOAA said.

For the already dry Southwest and areas across the South, this could be a “big punch,” said NOAA drought expert David Miskus. About 45% of the nation is in drought, the highest level in more than seven years.

Mike Halpert, deputy director of NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said he doesn’t see much relief for central and southern California, where wildfires have been raging.

What’s driving the mostly warmer and drier winter forecast is La Nina, the cooling of parts of the central Pacific that alter weather patterns worldwide, Halpert said.

For the East, big snowstorms or blizzards aren’t usually associated with La Nina. That’s more likely with its warming ocean counterpart, El Nino, he said. But he added that extreme events are not something meteorologists can see in seasonal forecasts.

Halpert also said he doesn’t expect the dreaded polar vortex to be much of a factor this year, except maybe in the Northern Plains and Great Lakes.

The vortex is the gigantic circular upper-air pattern that pens the cold close to the North Pole. When it weakens, the cold wanders away from the pole and brings bone-chilling weather to northern and eastern parts of the U.S.

While Halpert doesn’t see that happening much this winter, an expert in the polar vortex does.

Judah Cohen, a winter weather specialist for the private firm Atmospheric Environmental Research, sees a harsher winter for the Northeast than NOAA does. He bases much of his forecasting on what’s been happening in the Arctic and Siberian snow cover in October. His research shows that the more snow on the ground in Siberia in October, the harsher the winter in the eastern United States as the polar vortex weakens and wanders south.

Snow cover in Siberia was low in early October, but it is catching up fast and looks to be heavier than normal by the end of the month, he said.

The government predictions are about increased or decreased odds in what the entire three months of weather look like, not an individual day or storm, so don’t plan any event on a seasonal outlook, cautioned Greg Postel, a storm specialist at The Weather Channel. But he said La Nina is the strongest indicator among several for what drives winter weather. La Nina does bring a milder than average winter to the southeast, but it also makes the central U.S. “susceptible to Arctic blasts,” he said.

La Nina also dominates the forecast by AccuWeather. That private company is forecasting mainly dry in the South, wet and snowy in the Pacific Northwest, bouts of snow and rain from Minneapolis through the Great Lakes region, big swings in the heartland and mild weather in the mid-Atlantic. The company predicts a few heavy snow events in the Midwest and Great Lakes, but less than average snow for the Northeast.

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Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter at @borenbears .

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

Black contractor braves threats in removing Richmond statues

By SARAH RANKIN October 25, 2020

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FILE - This Wednesday July 1, 2020, file photo shows workers preparing to remove the statue of Confederate General Stonewall Jackson from its pedestal on Monument Avenue in Richmond, Va. Devon Henry, whose company handled the summer removals of Richmond's Confederate monuments, spoke with The Associated Press about navigating safety concerns for himself and his crew and previously unreported complexities of the project. (AP Photo/Steve Helber)


RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — Devon Henry paced in nervous anticipation, because this was a project like nothing he’d ever done. He wore the usual hard hat — and a bulletproof vest.

An accomplished Black businessman, Henry took on a job the city says others were unwilling to do: lead contractor for the now-completed removal of 14 pieces of Confederate statuary that dotted Virginia’s capital city. There was angry opposition, and fear for the safety of all involved.

But when a crane finally plucked the equestrian statue of Gen. Stonewall Jackson off the enormous pedestal where it had towered over this former capital of the Confederacy for more than a century, church bells chimed, thunder clapped and the crowd erupted in cheers.

Henry’s brother grabbed him, and they jumped up and down. He saw others crying in the pouring rain.

“You did it, man,” said Rodney Henry.

Success came at some cost. Devon Henry faced death threats, questions about the prices he charged, allegations of cronyism over past political donations to the city’s mayor and an inquiry by a special prosecutor. But he has no regrets.

“I feel a great deal of conviction in what we did and how it was done,” Henry, 43, told The Associated Press in the only interview he has given.

As recently as a few years ago, the removal of Richmond’s collection of Confederate monuments seemed nearly impossible, even as other tributes to rebel leaders around the U.S. started falling.

It was a particularly charged issue in a historic city with a central role in the Civil War. And the statues, especially along historic Monument Avenue, were breathtaking in size and valued for their artistic quality, drawing visitors like Winston Churchill and Dwight Eisenhower.

The tide turned after the death of George Floyd in police custody, which ignited a wave of Confederate monument removals. Richmond Mayor Levar Stoney and the city council committed to removing the statues, something the Democrat-led General Assembly had authorized earlier in the year.

Stoney, who is Black and has also faced backlash to his role in the monument removals, including racist and threatening voicemails, said in a debate in early October that “what we did was legal, it was appropriate, and it was right.”

Henry “put his life on the line, put his family’s lives on the line, he put his business on the line. And we removed those monuments,” the mayor said.

The man who oversaw the statue removals is a Virginia native with an easy laugh and warm smile, the son of a single mother who had him at 16 and worked her way up from a crew member at McDonald’s to the operator of five stores. He, his college sweetheart and their two kids live in suburban Richmond.

Records show his Newport News-based Team Henry Enterprises has won more than $100 million in federal contracts in the past decade. The company has handled projects ranging from invasive species removal to crane services for the U.S. Army to general construction. Team Henry was the general contractor on the recently completed Memorial to Enslaved Laborers at the University of Virginia.

He serves on several boards, including those of a bank and a health system foundation, and is a member of the Board of Visitors at his alma mater, Norfolk State University, where he endowed a scholarship.

Henry said the city’s Department of Public Works asked him in mid-June if he would be interested in the statue project. A contractor who turned the city down gave them his name, he said.

Henry huddled with his family to make sure everyone was on board. His son and daughter “started Googling” and “there was most definitely a level of concern” when they read about what happened in Charlottesville (where plans to remove a Robert E. Lee statue sparked a deadly white supremacist rally in 2017) and New Orleans (where a contractor’s car was firebombed).

Ultimately, they all agreed to take the job. This was an opportunity to be a part of history.

For safety, he said, he sought to conceal his company’s identity, creating a shell entity, NAH LLC, through which the $1.8 million contract was funneled.

Stoney’s administration initially declined to say who was behind the company, but the arrangement eventually came to light through public records requests and reporting by local news outlets. One blog ran a story headlined, “The Gory Details of Levar Stoney’s Statue Contract.” It was also reported that Henry had donated a total of $4,000 to Stoney and his political action committee.

Since his name and company became public, Henry said he’s received death threats. He’s added extra cameras to both his home and office security systems, he’s gotten a concealed carry permit, taken defensive shooting classes and now carries a weapon wherever he goes.

He said he’s also faced business repercussions. Some subcontractors have declined to work with him, he said, or doubled their prices.

An ongoing inquiry by a special prosecutor into the contract was initiated after Kim Gray, a city councilwoman who formerly opposed removing the monuments and is one of Stoney’s opponents in the November election, raised concerns about the deal.

Some of the mayor’s critics have questioned whether the price tag for the project, which included the removal of both large figures and smaller plaques, was reasonable. The statues are gone, but their enormous pedestals remain in place.

Some U.S. cities have paid more, like New Orleans, where it cost more than $2.1 million to remove four monuments. Others, like Baltimore, have paid far less. That city paid under $20,000 for four statues, according to the Richmond Times-Dispatch.

Andrew Baxter, a nationally known conservator of outdoor sculpture who has worked on projects at the White House and the National Gallery of Art and has conducted extensive restoration work in the past on several of Richmond’s largest Confederate monuments, was critical of the mayor’s handling of the situation. Stoney acted without the city council’s formal sign-off and before completing procedural steps in the new law.

Still, Baxter said the amount the city paid seemed reasonable.

Henry said the safety considerations of the job were a consideration in setting the price.

“It’s not a situation where you’re just putting in a crane on the street and you’re putting an air conditioner on top of a unit,” he said.

There was trouble finding subcontractors. Even a company he worked with on the UVA memorial gave him a resounding “hell no” when asked to participate, Henry said. A representative of another company suggested he should go take down a statue of Martin Luther King Jr. Truckers involved didn’t want their vehicle logos showing. Workers ended up traveling in from Wisconsin and Connecticut.

Henry negotiated the security plans, eventually working with the city sheriff’s department because he said the police department was not willing to participate. (A police department spokesman declined to comment.) He also hired private security.

In the end, the project went on without incident.

In an interview a block away from the pedestal that once held Confederate Gen. J.E.B. Stuart’s statue, Henry mused about his participation in two very different projects reflecting this moment in the story of race and America.

He helped build the UVA memorial, two nested granite rings, one with a timeline of the history of slavery at the school — a tribute to the enslaved people who built and maintained one of the country’s most prestigious public universities but had long gone unrecognized.

And he helped remove the Richmond statues, which he called tools of oppression against Black Americans.

“To be a Black man in the middle to do it, it felt pretty good,” he said.

Foreign students show less zeal for US since Trump took over

By SOPHIA TAREEN October 25, 2020


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In this photo taken on Tuesday, Oct. 13, 2020, Dodeye Ewa, 16 year old study at the family library in Calabar, Nigeria. The third child is bothered by President Donald Trump's rhetoric and his policies toward international students, most recently one announced Friday that limits their stays in the U.S. to two or four years with uncertainty about whether their visas will be extended. (AP Photo/Daniel H Williams )

CHICAGO (AP) — On a recruiting trip to India’s tech hub of Bangalore, Alan Cramb, the president of a reputable Chicago university, answered questions not just about dorms or tuition but also American work visas.

The session with parents fell in the chaotic first months of Donald Trump’s presidency. After an inaugural address proclaiming “America first,” two travel bans, a suspended refugee program and hints at restricting skilled worker visas widely used by Indians, parents doubted their children’s futures in the U.S.

“Nothing is happening here that isn’t being watched or interpreted around the world,” said Cramb, who leads the Illinois Institute of Technology, where international scholars have been half the student body.

America was considered the premier destination for international students, with the promise of top-notch universities and unrivaled job opportunities. Yet, 2016 marked the start of a steep decline of new enrollees, something expected to continue with fresh rules limiting student visas, competition from other countries and a haphazard coronavirus response. The effect on the workforce will be considerable, experts predict, no matter the outcome of November’s election.

Trump has arguably changed the immigration system more than any U.S. president, thrilling supporters with a nationalist message and infuriating critics who call the approach to his signature issue insular, xenophobic and even racist. Before the election, The Associated Press is examining some of his immigration policies, including restrictions on international students.

For colleges that fear dwindling tuition and companies that worry about losing talent, the broader impact is harder to quantify: America seemingly losing its luster on a global stage.

“It’s not as attractive as it once was,” said Dodeye Ewa, who’s finishing high school in Calabar, Nigeria.

Unlike two older siblings who left for U.S. schools, the aspiring pediatrician is focused on Canada. In America, she fears bullying for being an international student and a Black woman.

Trump senior adviser Stephen Miller predicted that after a COVID-19 vaccine, an improving economy would draw talent.

“Our superior economic position is going to mean that the world’s most talented doctors, scientists, technicians, engineers, etc., will all be thinking of the United States as their first country of destination,” Miller told the AP.

Roughly 5.3 million students study outside their home countries, a number that’s more than doubled since 2001. But the U.S. share dropped from 28% in 2001 to 21% last year, according to the Association of International Educators, or NAFSA.

New international students in America have declined for three straight years: a 3% drop in the 2016 school year — the first in about a decade — followed by 7% and 1% dips, according to the Institute of International Education, which releases an annual November report. The National Student Clearinghouse Research Center’s fall snapshot shows a 13.7% drop in undergraduate international students.

The government cites high college costs, but students and school leaders tell another story.

At IIT, a Chicago university known for engineering, computer science and architecture, there was a 25% decline in international students from fall 2016 to fall 2018.

Cramb has noticed a change in tone on campus. More international students want to return home.

The pandemic has only exacerbated things, including a short-lived Trump administration rule requiring international students to leave if their schools held online-only classes. Students panicked, universities protested and lawsuits followed.

The Department of Homeland Security then unveiled draft rules last month imposing fixed student visa terms. Instead of being valid while students are enrolled, visas could be limited to four years, with students from countries including Iran and Syria eligible for two years.

Federal officials say it’s a way to fight fraud and overstaying visas. But colleges call it another barrier.

“Right out of the gate, you had the first travel ban, and that really crystalized for students and scholars what was perceived as rhetoric really would translate into actual policy and create a tremendous amount of uncertainty,” said Rachel Banks, a director at NAFSA. “If I choose to study in the U.S. will I be able to finish?”

There haven’t been many reassurances.

The Trump administration has floated curtailing Optional Practical Training, a popular program allowing international students to work. Roughly 223,000 participated in 2018-19, according to the Institute of International Education.

This month, the administration announced plans to limit H1-B skilled-worker visas, often a path for foreign students. It was pitched as a way to address pandemic-related job losses, following a June order temporarily suspending H1-Bs. It’s prompted a lawsuit.

Democrat Joe Biden has promised to reverse some Trump immigration orders. He’s pitched more skilled-worker visas and giving foreign graduates of U.S. doctoral programs a pathway to citizenship.

Dodeye Ewa’s brother Wofai Ewa, an IIT senior studying mechanical engineering, wants to stay in America but worries about his options. He understands his sister’s doubts.

Trump’s disparaging words on immigrants have irked him, including the tone surrounding a January rule to curb family-based immigration from Nigeria and other countries.

“He made remarks about Nigerian immigrants getting jobs, and that put a weird tension around people who wanted to come here,” he said. “That put us in a bad light.”

Nearly 60% of U.S. colleges reported the social and political environment contributed to the decline of new international students, according a 2019 Institute of International Education survey.

Most colleges in the survey said the difficulty in obtaining U.S. visas was also to blame. Student visas issued under Trump shrunk 42%, from nearly 700,000 in 2015 to under 400,000 last year, according to the State Department.

There are signs of waning interest in America in India, which with China, provides the most international students globally.

In 2018, about 90% of Indians studying abroad chose the U.S., with fewer than 5% in Canada. For the 2021 school year, roughly 77% plan to study in America, and nearly 14% chose Canada. That’s according to a survey by Yocket, a Mumbai-based startup helping roughly 400,000 Indian students plan study abroad.

Yocket co-founder Sumeet Jain said there’s still wide belief America is unmatched for science, technology, engineering and math fields, but students have a backup these days.

Several several nations have made it easier for international students.

Canada allows foreign scholars to count part of their schooling toward a residency requirement for citizenship. The United Kingdom allows them to stay for two years after graduation while seeking work. Over the summer, Australia announced a pathway to citizenship for Hong Kong students.

“They are trying to message certainty and flexibility to their international students, and unfortunately, we are messaging uncertainty and rigidity,” said Sarah Spreitzer, a director at the American Council on Education.

There are major consequences.

International students contributed roughly $41 billion to the American economy in 2018 school year. NAFSA estimated that since 2016, the decline of new international students cost the U.S. nearly $12 billion and at least 65,000 jobs.

In response, college leaders formed the Presidents’ Alliance on Higher Education and Immigration in 2017.

Cramb, the group’s co-chairman, is a Scottish migrant who earned his Ph.D. at the University of Pennsylvania. He became IIT president in 2015.

“The greatest thing to happen to me was coming here,” he said. “What we are doing is taking away a richness to the education experience for everyone.”

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Associated Press reporter Elliot Spagat in San Diego contributed.