David Rosenberg: The U.S. economy is much closer to a bust than a boom — and markets are mispriced

© Provided by Financial Post A closed deli in the Brooklyn borough of New York City. The U.S. economy has a long way to go to get back to anything that can be remotely called a pre-COVID-19 norm, writes David Rosenberg.


By David Rosenberg and Andrew Hencic

To help alleviate all the confusion over whether the United States economy is actually out of recession and into a full-fledged and reliable recovery, we have constructed a new Boom-Bust index that measures exactly where the economy is operating relative to some semblance of normality.

The index is based on a set of seven economic and financial indicators and is designed to judge whether economic performance is more similar to an average economic boom or an average recession. What it currently shows (with all due deference to the increased risk appetite through the spring and summer courtesy of unprecedented fiscal stimulus and massive market-price distortions by the U.S. Federal Reserve) is that the economy, sad to say, is really not out of its recessionary state; at a minimum, it shows that we have a long way to go to get back to anything that can be remotely called a pre-COVID-19 norm. This, in turn, tells us that if you are prone to being long the pro-cyclical reflation trade that is so contingent on a vaccine, it’s best to wait for this to become a trend rather than a trade… or, more than likely, a value trap.

We based our index on something called the “Mahalanobis distance,” which was introduced for economic purposes by recent research out of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (A New Index of the Business Cycle by William Kinlaw, Mark Kritzman and David Turkington). We then deployed seven different macroeconomic and market-price indicators at a monthly frequency: the original four used in the paper (industrial production, the U.S. 10-Year T-Note/Fed funds rate spread, nonfarm employment and the S&P 500) supplemented with initial unemployment claims, single-family housing construction permits and the Conference Board’s consumer expectations index.

From a technical perspective, our definitions of “booms” and “busts” are the same as those from the MIT report: a bust is a technical recession as defined by the National Bureau of Economic Research, and a boom is a period where the year-over-year growth rate in industrial production is in the 75th percentile of the past 10 years.

The index is centered around 50, which corresponds to an economy that is neither running “hot” nor “cooling off.” A value of less than 50 means that the indicators are showing more features of a recession than a boom period (a value of zero is when the indicators are fully pointing to recession). Values above 50 mean the economy has more in common with solid growth, while a value of 100 would be a consensus that a boom is ongoing.

The index is responsive to the start of recoveries, as it jumps quickly back to values close to 50 at the conclusion of recessions (with the tech wreck and Great Financial Crisis taking slightly longer). However, the six-month trend performs quite well in anticipating recessions (values below 50 have preceded every recession since 1980 with the notable exception of 2015-2016) and with turning points off the lows that signal the resumption of growth.

The current value and six-month trend both sit at zero, firmly planting conditions as of September’s data in the Bust category. Going back to the late 1970s, the only other time the six-month average has hit these lows was in the later stages of the Great Financial Crisis. Though, with initial jobless claims still more than 750,000 per week, and nonfarm employment at -6.4% year over year (still worse than any period since the demobilization after the Second World War), this really shouldn’t be much of a surprise — the bulls, for some reason, see making up lost ground with unprecedented stimulus as the primary reason for being positioned with a pro-cyclical bias. Meanwhile, the debt overhang that caused the 2009-2019 economic expansion to have been the weakest in the past seven decades has only become worse and represents a massive tax liability and constraint on aggregate demand for the foreseeable future.

The equity market may have surged off its March lows, and credit spreads sharply tightened on both real and pledged Fed intervention, but the actual fundamentals paint a pretty bleak picture. Activity is still severely depressed and with COVID-19 cases reaching another daily record last week, it may be some time before things turn around.

In the face of this uncertainty, a portfolio positioned defensively — including Treasuries, gold and equities that trade with “utility-like” characteristics and have reliable dividend growth characteristics — is a prudent strategy that mitigates downside risks, but has the ability to capture upside potential, as economic growth prospects are very sluggish and inflation risks are still low alongside a massive resource gap in the broad economy.

David Rosenberg is founder of independent research firm Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc. and Andrew Hencic is a senior economist there. You can sign up for a free, one-month trial on his website .

David Rosenberg: We’re in a depression, not recession — and the scars will take years to heal

No matter who wins the election, America will still be in a jobs crisis

By Anneken Tappe, CNN Business Wed November 4, 2020


New York (CNN Business)It's not yet clear who will win the election, but no matter who ends up on top, one of the biggest priorities for the next administration is indeed clear: fixing America's broken job market.

America's jobs crisis is nowhere near over. Last month, the economy was still down 10.7 million jobs from February, before the pandemic forced businesses to shutter.

On one hand, that means nearly half of the 22 million jobs lost in the crisis have been recovered. But the pace of improvement has tapered off in recent months. The Bureau of Labor Statistics' October jobs report, due on Friday at 8:30 am ET, is expected to show a further slowdown in the labor market recovery.

Economists predict the US economy added 600,000 jobs in October, down slightly from 661,000 in the prior month. That would still leave America down some 10 million jobs during the pandemic and many people without the means to make ends meet.

The unemployment rate is expected to slip to 7.7%, down from 7.9% in September -- which was the nation's highest unemployment rate on record going into a presidential election.

Wednesday's ADP Employment Report came in far below expectations, showing private employers added only 365,000 jobs in October. Economists had expected 650,000. The ADP and government reports aren't correlated, but experts pay attention to both for a complete picture of the labor market.

Any improvements are good news, but the recovery is far from complete and the situation isn't looking hopeful for the jobless.

In July, Congress let expire its bill that provided additional $600 weekly checks to unemployed Americans on top of their regular unemployment benefits. That expiration led the monthly poverty rate to increase, according to a study from Columbia University's Center on Poverty and Social Policy.

Meanwhile, a growing number of workers have exhausted their state benefits and rolled onto alternative government programs, such as the Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation program. As of October 10, 3.7 million people received PEUC benefits, put in place to deal with the current crisis.

The PEUC program -- as well as the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program, which provides benefits for people such as the self-employed who aren't usually eligible for them -- are due to expire at the end of the year.

No matter who the next president will be, Washington needs to act fast to ensure help for those in need and get the country on track for a full jobs recovery.

-- CNN's Tami Luhby contributed to this story.

WAIT WHAT?
Ilhan Omar Fires Back at Sean Hannity After He Criticized Her for Encouraging Election Day Voting

Katherine Fung 

© Stephen Maturen/Stringer Congressional candidate Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-MN) speaks during a get out the vote event on the University of Minnesota campus on November 3, 2020 in Minneapolis, Minnesota. Omar fired back at Fox News host Sean Hannity for…

Democratic Representative Ilhan Omar from Minnesota fired back at conservative political commentator Sean Hannity after the Fox News host tried to criticize her for encouraging Election Day voting among her constituents.

Early Tuesday, Omar told Minnesotans to go to the polls even if they weren't registered to vote because the battleground state is one of 19 states and the District of Columbia that allows same-day voter registration.

However, in an attempt to attack the progressive congresswoman, Hannity took Omar's message out of context, tweeting, "NOT A JOKE: Ilhan Omar Tells Residents 'You Don't Have to be Registered to Vote' in Minnesota."

Omar was quick to call Hannity out on his mistake.

"Where is the lie, we are proud to have same day registration here in the great state of Minnesotan [sic]," Omar tweeted. "Access to the ballot box is a priority for us, I know it's a hard concept for republican to understand."

Omar has often been the target of right-wing commentators from Fox News and Hannity has frequently criticized more progressive Democrats,including Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York and Representative Ayanna Pressley of Massachusetts.

Omar, who was elected during her state's 2018 blue wave, won reelection in Minnesota's 5th congressional district on Tuesday—a seat that didn't seem to face a real threat to begin with.

Although Omar's seat was predicted to be safe—and in fact, late Wednesday, the Associated Press had called the race for her—other Republicans in Minnesota have attempted to use Omar as a tactic to defeat their Democratic opponents.

"Republican candidates in other areas of the state running against her in their own district are trying to link their Democratic opponents to Representative Omar. But for Representative Omar's part, she's in a very safe seat," Kathryn Pearson, an American politics professor at the University of Minnesota, told Newsweek.

Steve Schier, a political science professor at Carleton College, noted that Omar represents Minneapolis, the city that became the center of racial justice protests following the death of George Floyd.

Omar has also advocated for defunding the police, an idea that has become controversial amid this past summer's national unrest surrounding police brutality. The protests will be a key issue for many Minnesotans casting their ballots this election cycle.

"The whole question of defining the police has been an issue in the metro area," Schier told Newsweek. "What difference that makes on Election Day is hard to say but it has an unusually intensity in Minnesota because of the events here."

Newsweek reached out to Fox News for comment but did not hear back before publication.

US Supreme Court grapples over Catholic organization's fight against nondiscrimination law

Harper Neidig and John Kruzel 

© Getty Images Supreme Court grapples over Catholic organization's fight against nondiscrimination law

The Supreme Court on Wednesday heard a dispute that pits religious rights against nondiscrimination protections for LGBT people, in a case that could give one of the clearest signals yet of the newly 6-3 conservative court's direction.

The nine justices seemed split along predictable ideological lines over the question of whether Philadelphia could impose a non-discrimination requirement on a religious organization that is opposed to same-sex marriage.

The lawsuit arose after Philadelphia ended its foster-care partnership with a Catholic social services organization. The city severed ties after learning that the Catholic group refused to place foster children in the homes of gay couples, in violation of Philadelphia's non-discrimination ordinance.

The group, Catholic Social Services (CSS), represented by the nonprofit Becket Fund for Religious Liberty, brought a lawsuit in federal court. The organization alleges that the city has unfairly targeted the religious contractors whose sincerely held objection to gay marriage is protected under the "free exercise" clause of the First Amendment.

The conservative justices, including the newly sworn-in Amy Coney Barrett, appeared sympathetic to the Catholic group, repeatedly noting that CSS has yet to turn away a gay couple and that there are other fostering services in the city that would allow LGBT families to adopt.

Justice Samuel Alito accused city officials of targeting the Catholic church for its religious views.

"if we are honest about what's really going on here, it's not about ensuring that same sex couples in Philadelphia have the opportunity to be foster parents," Alito said. "It's the fact that the city can't stand the message that Catholic social services and the Archdiocese are sending by continuing to adhere to the old fashioned view about marriage."

The three liberal justices, meanwhile, appeared concerned about potential widespread discrimination from government contractors if the court were to allow an exemption to Philadelphia's policy for CSS.

"What is dangerous is the idea that a contractor with a religious belief could come in and say, exclude other religions from being families ... exclude someone with a disability ... or exclude interracial couples," said Justice Sonia Sotomayor.

Neal Katyal, a former acting solicitor general under the Obama administration representing Philadelphia in the case, argued that if CSS were to prevail before the high court, it would have far-reaching consequences and "opens the door for all kinds of claims" to allow various forms of discrimination.

"It radiates far beyond foster care to all government contracts in all 50 states," Katyal said.

The case is one of the first major tests on social issues for the court's strengthened conservative majority.

Last term, the 5-4 majority sided with religious conservatives in three major cases. They upheld the Trump administration's expansion of religious or moral exemptions from the Affordable Care Act's birth control mandate, expanded immunity for religious institutions from workplace discrimination lawsuits and ruled that religious schools cannot be excluded from state-financed private school scholarship programs.

It's unclear when the court will rule on the case argued Wednesday. A decision could come as late as June, when the current term ends.

Vicious Circle Of Global Warming And Large-Scale Ice Loss Set To Worsen

GLACIER IN ICEFJORD IN ILULISSAT, GREENLAND

By Alfredo Carpineti 28 OCT 2020

Global warming has increased the loss of ice sheets all over the world and in turn, the reduction in ice contributes to global warming in several ways, creating a vicious cycle that does not spell good news for Earth. A new study in Nature Communications assessed how much the loss of ice contributes to an increase in temperature.

The study estimates that if the Arctic ocean was to lose its ice coverage completely, it would add 0.2°C (0.36°F) to the average increase of global temperatures. The same increase would happen again if Greenland and West Antarctica lost their glaciers, resulting in a median additional global warming of 0.4°C (0.72°F). As we struggle to keep the global average temperature increase below 2 °C (3.6 °F), the difference that ice loss makes is significant.

"If global ice masses shrink, this changes how much of the sunlight that hits Earth's surface is reflected back into space. Decreasing ice cover in the Arctic exposes more of the darker ocean water that absorbs more energy," lead author Nico Wunderling, from the Potsdam Institute For Climate Impact Research, said in a statement. "This is referred to as albedo feedback. It's like wearing white or black clothes in summer. If you wear dark, you heat up more easily."

The albedo feedback accounts for 55 percent of that possible increase. But ice melting also changes the concentration of water vapor in the atmosphere. A more humid world is a world that retains heat better – really not what we currently want. It also changes cloud coverage, again leading to a temperature increase. Water vapor changes account for 30 percent of that 0.4°C (0.72°F), the remaining 15 percent is from changes in cloud coverage.

"[E]very tenth of a degree of warming counts for our climate," said Ricarda Winkelmann, who led the research group. "Preventing Earth system feedback loops, or vicious circles, is thus more urgent than ever."

The team only estimated how the loss of ice will affect temperatures but there are other effects to consider. The polar regions have been able to trap greenhouse gases for millennia and these are slowly being released. Researchers from the International Siberian Shelf Study Expedition 2020 have reported the first detection of methane being released from the continental slope in the Laptev Sea. The detection comes from a depth of 300 meters (984 feet) off the East Siberia coast.

The team wrote on Facebook that they believe that the emissions are still modest at this time, but it's a new and worrying alarm bell for the effects of the climate crisis in the Arctic. The polar regions might feel distant but safeguarding them has a global impact.

‘Death by irony’: The mystery of the SMOKY mouse that died of smoke inhalation, but went nowhere near a fire

Author Andrew Peters
July 12, 2020 

This article is part of Flora, Fauna, Fire, a special project by The Conversation that tracks the recovery of Australia’s native plants and animals after last summer’s bushfire tragedy. Explore the project here and read more articles here.

I looked through the microscope at the insides of a dead smoky mouse, and could barely believe my eyes. Thousands of tiny smoke particles lined its lungs. But the mouse had been kept more than 50 kilometres from the nearest bushfires. How could this be?

As it turned out, the critically endangered mouse had died from smoke inhalation. Some 45 had been held at a captive breeding facility near Canberra. Nine ultimately died - the first recorded wildlife in the world killed by bushfire smoke far outside a fire zone.

The deaths were a blow for conservation efforts. But in recent weeks, there’s been good news: smoky mice have been spotted at seven sites burnt in the fires. For now, at least, the species lives on.

The smoky mouse case shows bushfire smoke can affect wildlife far from the fire zone. 

NASA Earth Observatory

A unique, bulgy-eyed rodent

The smoky mouse is shy, gentle and small – usually about nine centimetres in body length, plus its tail. They are rather cute, with bulgy eyes and very soft grey fur which inspired the species’ name.

In the wild, the smoky mouse is limited to a few sites in Victoria’s Grampians and East Gippsland, as well as in Kosciuszko National Park in New South Wales. It lives in underground communal nests, in heath and forest habitats.

Read more: After the bushfires, we helped choose the animals and plants in most need. Here's how we did it

Ancestors of the smoky mouse arrived in Australia more than five million years ago when the Australian continent finally drifted close enough to Southeast Asia for rodents to raft across.

These ancient rodents diversified into more than 50 species. Many, like the smoky mouse, are in decline. Others, like the white-footed rabbit-rat have already become extinct.

Several threats are reducing smoky mouse numbers, but feral cats and foxes are a major cause.

Baby smoky mice photographed in 2017 at the captive breeding facility. 

Office of Environment and Heritage

Death by irony?

Some 119 animal species were identified for urgent conservation intervention following the fires. The smoky mouse was among them. Modelling showed 26% of its distribution overlapped with burnt areas, and in NSW more than 90% of the species’ habitat burned.

I am a wildlife health and pathology expert based in Wagga Wagga in NSW, and part of my job is to diagnose why animals have died. The first dead smoky mouse I encountered had come from a Canberra breeding facility. It was sent by a vet and arrived via courier in mid-January.

Through the microscope: smoke particles in the lungs of a smoky mouse suffering smoke inhalation.

In a note attached, the vet suggested bushfire smoke had killed the smoky mouse – and asked, in a nod to the species’ name, if this was a case of “death by irony”.

Canberra, like many other cities and towns, was shrouded in thick smoke in January. But the breeding facility was more than 50 kilometres from the nearest fire zone, so I thought the vet’s theory was unlikely.

When I and other veterinary pathologists examined organs of the mouse under the microscope, the only abnormality we could find was fluid and congestion in the mouse’s lungs.

Over the following month, eight more smoky mice died. I inspected the lungs of one – to my shock, it contained thousands of brown smoke particles. Once I knew the distribution of particles to look for, I found them in most of the other dead mice too.

The mice didn’t die immediately after inhaling the smoke. They hung on, but when temperatures in Canberra spiked at more than 40℃, they went into respiratory distress and died.

Read more: A season in hell: bushfires push at least 20 threatened species closer to extinction

Death from smoke inhalation has long been suspected in wildlife. But it’s poorly recorded because after bushfires, the bodies of dead animals are usually incinerated or too decomposed to make a diagnosis.

The smoky mouse case shows bushfire smoke can damage wild animals far beyond fire zones. That means the impact of bushfires on wildlife may be greater than we thought.

Seven smoky mice have been spotted in the wild since the bushfires. Museums Victoria

A bit of good news

There is hope for the smoky mouse. Motion-sensing cameras set up in Kosciuszko National Park after the fires have recorded smoky mice at seven burnt sites. Over the next year, more sites will be surveyed to better understand how many individuals remain, and where they live.

Most smoky mice at the Canberra captive breeding facility survived, and there are plans to release some into the wild. This captive breeding program has also been identified as a priority for federal funding.

But as global warming escalates, fires in Australia are predicted to become even worse. Now more than ever, the future of the smoky mouse, along with many other Australian animals, hinges on decisive climate action. Captive breeding programs and blind hope will not be enough.

Author
Andrew Peters
Associate Professor of Wildlife Health and Pathology, Charles Sturt University
Disclosure statement
Andrew Peters is deputy chair of Wildlife Health Australia.

Read more: Conservation scientists are grieving after the bushfires -- but we must not give up

Radio bursts detected from within our own Milky Way galaxy for first time
Doyle Rice, USA TODAY 

For the first time, astronomers have discovered a "fast radio burst" that came from within our own Milky Way galaxy, according to new research published Wednesday.

© Andre Renard, AP A file photo provided by the Canadian Hydrogen Intensity Mapping Experiment collaboration shows the CHIME radio telescope in Kaleden, British Columbia, Canada. On Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2020, astronomers say they used the instrument to trace an April 2020 fast radio burst to our own galaxy and a type of powerful energetic young star called a magnetar.

They also believe they have found a source of one of the bursts, which are extremely bright flashes of energy that last for a fraction of a second, during which they can blast out more than 100 million times more power than our sun.

Since they were first detected in 2007, astronomers have observed these fast radio bursts scattered across the universe, but their sources have been too far away to clearly make out, according to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Making it even harder is that they happen so fast, in a couple of milliseconds.

It had been a mystery, then, as to what objects could possibly produce such brief though brilliant radio bursts.

Now astronomers report that in April, they observed fast radio bursts from within our own galaxy, for the first time. The radio pulses are the closest ones detected to date, and their proximity has allowed the team to pinpoint their source.

It came from outer space: Weird radio signal came from distant galaxy

It appears the radio pulses were produced by a magnetar – a type of neutron star with a hugely powerful magnetic field. How powerful? The field can be 10 trillion times stronger than a refrigerator magnet's and up to a thousand times stronger than a typical neutron star's. This represents an enormous storehouse of energy that astronomers suspect powers magnetar outbursts, according to NASA.

The magnetar that produced the burst is an estimated 32,000 light-years from Earth, located in the constellation Vulpecula.

Fast radio bursts: More 'fast radio bursts' have been detected from a distant galaxy. This one has a repeating pattern.

Magnetars are incredibly dense, with 1.5 times the mass of our sun squeezed into a space the size of Manhattan. Physicists had hypothesized that magnetars might produce fast radio bursts, but proof had been lacking, until now.

“There’s this great mystery as to what would produce these great outbursts of energy, which until now we’ve seen coming from halfway across the universe,” said Kiyoshi Masui, assistant professor of physics at MIT, who led an analysis of the radio burst’s brightness. “This is the first time we’ve been able to tie one of these exotic fast radio bursts to a single astrophysical object.”

The findings were published Wednesday in a series of studies in the peer-reviewed British journal Nature.

Astronomers have had as many 50 different theories for what causes these fast radio bursts, including aliens, and they emphasize that magnetars may not be the only answer, especially since there seem to be two types of fast radio bursts. Some, like the one spotted in April, happen only once, while others repeat themselves often.

However, one expert believes magnetars are the source of most radio bursts.

"Before this event, a wide variety of scenarios could explain the origin of fast radio bursts," said Chris Bochenek, a doctoral student in astrophysics at Caltech who led one study of the radio event. "While there may still be exciting twists in the story of fast radio bursts in the future, for me, right now, I think it's fair to say that most come from magnetars until proven otherwise."

Contributing: The Associated Press

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Radio bursts detected from within our own Milky Way galaxy for first time

Incredible Photo Reveals Grim Fate Of Bat Sea Star Victims

'YUP, THAT’S ME. YOU’RE PROBABLY WONDERING HOW I ENDED UP IN THIS SITUATION,' - UNFORTUNATE CRAB, 2020. IMAGE C
OURTESY OF GREG POTTER


By Rachael Funnell 29 OCT 2020, 17:00


Aquariums are a great source of education, scientific research, and conservation funding when done properly. These unique establishments enable people from all backgrounds to gain insight into the fascinating world that exists beneath the waves. They also enable us to see things we normally can't, in the most literal sense of the phrase, as the glass tanks that house the animals can offer us a sneak peek of what's happening underneath an animal’s body.

Greg Potter was visiting the Ucluelet Aquarium, a non-profit catch-and-release aquarium on the west coast of Vancouver Island, Canada, when he spotted something unusual happening in one of the tanks. A bat sea star had managed to snag a crab and, thanks to the tank-side view provided by the clear glass, could be seen digesting it.

“Apparently the crabs are stored in there waiting to be fed to a wolf eel but this sea star just saw an opportunity,” Potter, who is joining the Strawberry Isle Marine Research Society (SIMRS) as Science Communications Director next week, told IFLScience. “They don't aim to feed the sea stars live prey.”

Sea stars, also known as starfish, move using tiny tube feet, which can be seen on the underside of the bat sea star in the photo. These animals have a reputation for being a bit slow and lethargic (probably because of photos like this) but some are faster than you might expect. An adult sunflower sea star, as seen in the above video, can whiz across the ocean floor at a rate of 1 meter (3 feet) a minute thanks to the 15,000 tube feet that sit beneath its body. Sea stars also use these tube feet to grab onto and hold their prey, which would explain how the unfortunate crab found itself in this situation.

“If the star already had a leg up waving around (as they sometimes do) it wouldn't take much contact to get the crab as they're surprisingly strong,” said Potter. “In the wild, I saw one trying to eat a fried egg jellyfish it had caught but I don't know how that turned out.”

Once a sea star has a hold of its prey, it will expel its stomach out of its mouth and digests its food into a sort of chowder which is then slurped up into digestive glands. Evidently, the bat sea star in the photo had only just begun its meal but no doubt employees at the aquarium were treated to a live crab chowder demonstration for the rest of the day. Yummy...

Exposure To Man-Made Chemicals Influences Genes Controlling Aging, Immune System And Metabolism




By Alexander Suvorov 02 NOV 2020, 


Today humans are exposed to thousands of man-made chemicals. Yet the effects on people’s health are still not fully understood.

In 2020 the number of registered chemicals reached 167 million. Every day people are exposed to them through food, water, contaminated air, drugs, cosmetics and other man-made substances. Less than 1% of these chemicals were tested for toxicity, and those that were tested demonstrate ability to disrupt almost every biological process in our body. Can we infer how cumulative exposures shape our health?

I am an environmental toxicologist studying effects of man-made chemicals on our health. I decided to develop a computational approach to objectively compare sensitivity of all genes to all chemicals and identify the most vulnerable biological processes.

Unbiased approach

For our study, my research colleagues and I used data from the Comparative Toxicogenomic Database. The Comparative Toxicogenomic Database collects information from thousands of published studies on how chemicals change the activity of genes. Genes are sections of DNA that encode proteins which perform a broad range of functions in cells, from building tissues to metabolizing nutrients. When chemicals affect genes, that results in increased or decreased production of proteins.

Modern methods of molecular biology can detect changes in activity of all genes in the genome in response to a chemical insult. I developed an approach that overlays lists of altered genes from different studies to calculate how many times each gene was affected. The resulting numbers reflect sensitivities of genes to chemicals generally.

Using 2,169 studies on mice, rats, humans and their cells, my research group ranked the sensitivity of 17,338 genes to chemical exposures. These studies tested the impact of 1,239 diverse chemicals ranging from prescription drugs to environmental pollutants.

At the next step we ran tests to ensure that this sample of over 1,000 chemicals was large enough to reliably represent all classes of man-made chemicals people are exposed to. To do so, we measured sensitivity of genes for one half of this list and then for another to test if even a smaller number of chemicals can reliably identify sensitive genes. The results were encouraging – the values of gene sensitivities were almost identical in the two trials.

Cellular defense system responds to chemicals

Our cells are not completely helpless when exposed to chemical insults. In fact, they possess strategies for dealing with stress and damage induced by chemicals. Our data confirm that these safeguards become active in response to exposures.

This line of defense includes enzymes that eliminate toxic chemicals, alleviate oxidative stress (the accumulation of reactive radicals in cells), repair damaged DNA and proteins, and identify highly damaged cells to trigger their death and prevent them from turning cancerous.

Could exposure to man-made chemicals be boosting obesity rates around the world? Fuss Sergey/Shutterstock.com

Metabolism of lipids and carbohydrates is vulnerable

Surprisingly, we found that molecular networks involved in the regulation of cellular metabolism are most sensitive to chemical exposures. One of them is PPAR signaling. PPARs are a group of proteins that regulate energy balance and metabolism of lipids and glucose.

Rises or falls in PPARs activity contribute to obesity, metabolic syndrome, diabetes and fatty liver disease. The ability of some environmental chemicals to affect PPARs was shown before. However, we didn’t expect to see sensitivity of PPARs to a very broad range of compounds.

We also discovered that genes involved in the development of pancreatic beta cells, which secrete insulin and play a key role in glucose metabolism, are suppressed by a majority of chemicals in our list. Dysfunction of beta cells results in diabetes. Thus, cumulative chemical exposures may be a significant risk factor for diabetes.

Today an epidemic of metabolic disease is a major public health issue. The prevalence of obesity nearly tripled between 1975 and 2016. Approximately 40% of Americans will develop Type 2 diabetes during their lives, and 33%-88% have fatty liver. Connection between exposures and metabolic diseases was shown before for some chemicals with endocrine disruptive properties. However, the role of a broadest range of man-made chemicals in this epidemic was not recognized before but can be significant.

Growth, aging and the immune system

Two hormones involved in growth – growth hormone (GH) and insulin-like growth factor (IGF1) – are also affected by exposure to chemicals.

IGF1 is a hormone secreted mostly by the liver. It is recognized as a major regulator of body growth. Additionally, multiple mouse experiments show that decreased GH-IGF1 signaling results in longer lifespan. This pathway also determines if cells will use energy to build new molecules the body needs, or if they will break down existing molecules to release energy for the organism to use. The ability of chemicals to affect this central regulator of growth and aging is a novel finding. What health problems may be due to the sensitivity of GH-IGF1 is yet to be uncovered.

Our analysis indicates that genes that control the immune response are also highly sensitive to chemicals.

Two major outcomes of a dysfunctional immune system are allergy and autoimmunity. Prevalence for both conditions follows upward trends. Food allergies increased from 3.4% to 5.1% between 1997 and 2011 among children in the U.S. Skin allergies increased from 7.4% to 12.5% during the same period. Another study showed a 5% increase in blood marker of autoimmune disease in Americans during the period 1988-2012.

All molecular pathways are sensitive to chemicals
Overall we found that almost every known pathway may be affected by chemicals. That finding has significant implications for regulatory toxicology.

With ever-increasing numbers of man-made chemicals, society needs to develop rapid and cost-efficient methods of toxicity testing.

[Deep knowledge, daily. Sign up for The Conversation’s newsletter.]

One important question that remains unanswered is what pathways should be covered by testing to ensure that regulators do not approve chemicals that harm or disrupt critical molecular circuits. Our data suggests that we need to develop tests that cover every known molecular pathway without exception.

Our study outlines new priorities for toxicological research, including the role of chemical exposures for metabolic health, immune system, development and aging.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

US companies add fewer jobs than forecast, ADP report shows

Henry Ren
Bloomberg

U.S. companies added fewer jobs in October than forecast, a private report showed, indicating the absence of additional fiscal stimulus is prompting some firms to adjust payrolls as the pandemic continues to wear on the recovery.

Businesses’ payrolls increased by 365,000 last month after a revised 753,000 rise in September, according to ADP Research Institute data released Wednesday. The October gain was weaker than all but one estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists and was less than the median projection for a 643,000 gain.

The slower pace of hiring illustrates a long road to recovery for the labor market as the coronavirus continues to reduce revenue at service providers including the travel, hotel and restaurant industries. The figures, along with the recent resurgence in infections, underscore the need for lawmakers to agree on another round of fiscal assistance to shore up the most-affected businesses and keep employees on payrolls.

“The big picture is that employment growth is continuing to slow and the new wave of virus cases is only likely to exacerbate that trend,” Andrew Hunter, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics, said in a note.

The data precede the government’s monthly jobs report on Friday, which is forecast to show private payrolls increased by about 700,000 after a 877,000 gain in September. At the same time, public sector employment is likely to decline due to the unwind in federal government hiring as the 2020 Census concludes, according to a note by Bloomberg economists.

The ADP report showed service-provider employment increased 348,000 in October, reflecting slowdowns in hiring within trade and transportation, business services and health care. Payrolls at goods producers rose just 17,000 last month, the smallest gain in three months, due to less hiring in manufacturing and construction.

Medium-size businesses led the October rise with a 135,000 increase in payrolls. Large businesses hired 116,000 while small companies added 114,000 workers.

ADP’s payroll data represent firms employing nearly 26 million workers in the U.S.