Covid crisis pushes jobless into survival mode

AFP has spoken to workers around the world who suddenly lost their jobs in sectors hit hard by the pandemic such as air travel, hospitality and tourism, to find out how they have coped during the second coronavirus wave

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© JAVIER SORIANO Honduran domestic worker Sonia Herrera is now managing to avoid the food banks in Madrid which made her feel 'a bit ashamed

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© CLAUDIO CRUZ Jesus Yepez: 'The only way out is for someone or some institution to help me'

Forced to skip meals, weighed down by debt or having to move back in with parents, most of them described being in survival mode, worse off than when AFP journalists first interviewed them five months ago when they suddenly lost their jobs.

© GENYA SAVILOV Natalia Murashko:

 'It has turned out that Covid has made everything change for the better'

Several have avoided the worst, but none has escaped feelings of deep anguish.

Due to the economic downturn caused by the coronavirus pandemic, the World Bank estimates that by 2021, 150 million people could fall into extreme poverty, with a rising share of them in urban areas.

Eight out of 10 of the ‘new poor’ will be in middle-income countries.

Here are six workers' stories:

- Debts and 'survival mode' -

"I'm in survival mode, one meal a day for the family and that's it," said Frenchman Xavier Chergui, 44, who used to be able to earn up to 4,000 euros ($4,800) in a really good month as a temp maitre d', filling in at Paris restaurants when they were short-staffed.

His situation was already precarious after France's first lockdown but the married, father of two banked on things picking up again from September.

Apart from "a few days" of work that has not happened, due to November's partial lockdown.

"I'm behind on the rent, the electricity bill... I also have the car loan to pay," he said.

His family survives on state aid and benefits which come to 1,400 euros.

The rent is 1,000 euros but most of the money goes towards "filling the fridge", said Chergui, whose son had wanted to study graphics at university but has changed to history as it's less expensive.

- Scrimping and saving -

Domestic worker Sonia Herrera is getting by without resorting to the food bank again, an experience that made her feel "a bit ashamed" she told AFP earlier this year.

The 52-year-old Honduran, whose employers in central Madrid let her go the day after Spain's lockdown began, has since managed to pick up a few hours of cleaning.

Her daughter Alejandra, 33, who lost her job as a cook, does the same -- their household of four lives on a little over 1,000 euros a month.

But they scrimp and save, hanging around town at lunchtime to avoid paying the three-euro bus fare to come home to eat.

With schools having reopened, Herrera's grandson Izan can have lunch in the school canteen which helps.

The few savings that helped Herrera, a single mother, scrape by earlier are now gone and she says the idea of another lockdown is "terrifying".

As an undocumented migrant, she doesn't qualify for a new minimum wage scheme introduced in May.

- Moving back home -

Colombian Roger Ordonez, 26, said he had no choice but to move back in with his parents in the northeastern city of Bucaramanga after losing his job as a flight attendant for Avianca.

He was open to relocating or retraining but couldn't find another job in the airline industry and can't pay rent.

Applications to Bogota call centres were just as futile.

He worries that his previous career may put prospective bosses off.

"From the salary that I used to have, people think that I'm going to leave as soon as I get another job," he said.

From having earned a monthly salary of 1,000 euros at Avianca, Ordonez said he'd now be happy with minimum wage, which is about 210 euros.

"But there's nothing," he said.

He used to enjoy travelling and was studying to become a pilot.

"You get used to living alone, being independent, buying yourself things... Now, I have to live with my family in their space... it's cramped," he said.

- 'Better than nothing' -

Marie Cedile was relieved to learn the shop where she works was among those being taken over, after French shoe company Andre went into receivership earlier in the year.

Half the staff lost their jobs.

"Everything is OK for me, for now," said Cedile, 54, who has worked for Andre for 30 years and had told AFP previously that, if necessary, she would clean houses if laid off.

Her husband, who was unemployed in the spring, has found a job in car rentals.

"Let's hope it's all going in the right direction. We are scared nevertheless," she admitted.

Andre shops were closed under the recent partial lockdown -- they reopened at the weekend -- and Cedile was on partial unemployment, meaning she got about 1,000 euros a month.

"But it's still better than nothing, there are countries like Portugal, where they don't get anything," Cedile, who is of Portuguese origin, said.

- 'Hell of misery' -

Jesus Yepez, 60, has lost everything -- the tourists he used to take around the famed Templo Mayor Aztec pyramid in the heart of Mexico City, his home, health and hope.

Months after the tour guide entered a homeless shelter in the capital as work dried up due to the pandemic, the once-rotund Mexican is a shadow of his former self.

Yepez's cheekbones protrude from his sunken face and he has dark circles under his eyes from insomnia.

Every night, instead of falling into a restful sleep, he prays that he will die soon.

"My God, come and get me. I can't stand this anymore," he said in a broken voice.

Doctors at the shelter diagnosed depression and neuropathy and put him on medication.

He tried to go back to work after some Mexican museums and archaeological sites reopened.

But when tourists see his dirty feet, worn plastic sandals and tattered old clothes, they soon lose interest in his services.

"I'm trapped in this hell of misery," Yepez said.

"The only way out is for someone or some institution to help me systematically because the government only gave me 3,000 pesos (less than $150) over the past 100 days which is not enough."

- Happy turnaround -

Ukrainian IT specialist Natalia Murashko, 40, is earning more now than in her previous job.

"My work day is shorter and I can work from anywhere," she said.

In April, she was suddenly laid off by the American travel company where she'd worked for four years.

It came as "a total shock" she told AFP shortly afterwards, especially since her computer skills placed her in a rarefied and high earning group in Ukraine.

Her lifestyle changed overnight and the mum of two teens, who also looks after her 73-year-old mother, began job hunting.

Part-time work for an American mobile app development site saw her through the first months of unemployment and has now turned into her main job.

After negotiating a better rate, she takes home 10 percent more than in her previous employment.

She was able to take a holiday in Bulgaria this year and is saving to build up a better safety net.

The stress from months of being unemployed however exacerbated her sleeping problems and re-triggered back pain.

But, she thinks that "generally, it has turned out that Covid has made everything change for the better."

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Alberta job-seekers could continue to face uphill battle, experts warn

BECAUSE KENNEY REFUSES TO 

PRIME THE PUMP 

CBC 

© Maridav/Adobe Stock 

Experts say they are expecting a slow recovery for Alberta's economy and employment rate.

Finding work continues to be a struggle for thousands of Albertans and some experts fear lower-than-normal employment levels could persist as the second wave of the pandemic rages, leading to more bankruptcies and mortgage delinquencies.

Though Statistics Canada data shows Alberta added 23,000 jobs last month, employment levels are still below pre-pandemic levels.

"There are still a lot of people struggling," said Aled ab Iorwerth, deputy chief economist for the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.

Data from the CMHC this fall revealed Edmonton and Calgary led the country with mortgage deferral rates of 11 and nine per cent.

With deferral periods ending, and bankruptcies increasing, some fear a jump in the mortgage delinquency rate could be coming.

"It's something to be concerned about and something we are keeping an eye on," the economist said.

Jackie Rafter, who runs the Calgary-based company Higher Landing, has been training out-of-work professionals in Alberta since 2015.

Many of her clients have worked in oil and gas, but have been unable to find jobs in the industry.

The pandemic has exacerbated their problems and affected their mental health, she said.
People have lost their homes

"These are the people who lost their homes, they've lost their marriages, they've exhausted their RRSPs and now their health is starting to collapse," Rafter said.

With so much uncertainty in the job market, Rafter said job-seekers must do more than rely on their previous skills and experience.

She advises clients to understand their value but be willing to change their approach and accept opportunities in other fields.

Edmonton job seeker Juan Marin, 25, has embraced that advice.

"My initial plan is to find a job in the engineering field, but I am open to different options," said Marin, a graduate of the University of Los Andes in Colombia and the University of Alberta.

Marin enrolled in one of Higher Landing's programs this summer after experiencing a tougher-than-expected job hunt.

Marin said he realized he needed to change his tactics, so he started reaching out to managers and potential employers directly instead of focusing on online applications.

The networking seems to have paid off, leading to more interviews, but he is still looking for work.

AUSTERITY, AUSTERITY AND MORE AUSTERITY 
Alberta's outlook grim

Alberta Finance Minister Travis Toews spoke of "signs of some economic recovery" ahead of a fiscal update on the province's finances last week.

Others say there may be signs of hope, but Alberta's economic outlook appears grim.

"It's going to be a slow, slow recovery," said Mike Holden, chief economist at the Business Council of Alberta.

Nearly half of Alberta chief executives surveyed by the council said they expect employment levels to drop in the coming year.

Ab lorwerth said the more COVID-19 spreads, the more likely there will be significant economic disruption.

"We're really in the hands of the virus at the moment, and that's why we're trying to remain prudent and cautious," he said.

WALL $TREET DEMOCRATS

BlackRock Gains Clout in Washington as Biden Builds His Team

(Bloomberg) -- One has been tapped to head the U.S. National Economic Council, the other as No. 2 at the Treasury Department. 

And both have one big thing in common: BlackRock Inc.

"The Republican and Democratic parties, or, to be more exact, the Republican-Democratic party, represent the capitalist class in the class struggle. They are the political wings of the capitalist system and such differences as arise between them relate to spoils and not to principles." 

~ Eugene V. Debs

 "The Socialist Party and the Working Class". Eugene V. Debs' opening speech as Presidential candidate of the Socialist Party in Indianapolis, Indiana, www.marxists.org. September 1, 1904. 

© Photographer: Gabriella Angotti-Jones/Bloomberg 

Pedestrians pass in front of BlackRock Inc. headquarters in New York.

As President-elect Joe Biden assembles his economic team, his choice of two men who’ve worked in BlackRock’s senior ranks -- Brian Deese for NEC and Adewale Adeyemo as deputy Treasury secretary -- cements the giant investment firm’s position as one of Wall Street’s major gateways to the corridors of power in Washington. Deese oversees sustainable investing at BlackRock, while Adeyemo is a former senior adviser and interim chief of staff to Chief Executive Larry Fink.

BlackRock’s role as a hotbed of former and future policymakers -- a position once held so firmly by Goldman Sachs Group Inc. that that bank was nicknamed “Government Sachs” -- underscores the asset manager’s clout, capping its rise from a respected bond shop to one of the major players in American business over its 32-year history.

Read more: When the Fed Needs Wall Street’s Help, It Turns to BlackRock

BlackRock, which oversees more than $7.8 trillion in assets, is the largest money manager, and one of the most influential. It’s the global leader in low-cost exchange-traded funds, which upended active mutual funds and revolutionized investing.

The firm’s size also put it at the forefront of efforts to stabilize the U.S. economy this year. The Federal Reserve enlisted BlackRock in March to take charge of three bond-buying programs after the Covid-19 pandemic-induced selloff.

In recent years, the New York-based firm hired more than a dozen alumni of Barack Obama’s administration, including his national security adviser, senior adviser for climate policy, a former Federal Reserve vice chairman he appointed, and numerous other economists from the White House, Treasury and Fed. With Biden readying a team for his own presidency, some of those individuals are expected to head back into politics.

A representative for BlackRock declined to comment.

Other former Obama officials at BlackRock include:

 Thomas Donilon, chairman of the BlackRock Investment Institute: former national security adviser to Obama. He turned down Biden’s proposal to lead the CIA, the New York Times reported on Nov. 29, citing an unidentified person familiar.

 Mike Pyle, global chief investment strategist: former special assistant to Obama for economic policy

Stanley Fischer, senior adviser: former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve from 2014-2017

 Cheryl Mills, board member: chief of staff to Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Counselor to the U.S. Department of State from 2009-2013

 Meaghan Muldoon, global head of environmental, social and governance integration: former fiscal and economic policy adviser in Obama administration

And Fink was considered a potential candidate for Treasury secretary after Timothy Geithner and again under a potential Hillary Clinton administration. Earlier this year Fink told his senior leadership team he wouldn’t be heading for a job in Washington and would remain at the company, at a time when other front-runners were emerging for the position.

Iconic radio telescope suffers catastrophic collapse
Nadia Drake 


The Arecibo Observatory’s suspended equipment platform collapsed just before 8 a.m. local time on December 1, falling more than 450 feet and crashing through the telescope’s massive radio dish—a catastrophic ending that scientists and engineers feared was imminent after multiple cables supporting the platform unexpectedly broke in recent months. No one was hurt when the 900-ton platform lost its battle with gravity, according to staff at the observatory in Puerto Rico

VICTIM OF CLIMATE CHANGE

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© Photograph by Ricardo Arduengo, Getty Images
This aerial view shows the damage to the Arecibo Observatory after its 900-ton equipment platform broke loose, swung into a nearby rock face, and smashed onto the radio dish below.

The telescope itself has been destroyed, although the full extent of the damage to surrounding facilities hasn’t yet been determined. Aerial photos show that the platform likely made a pendulous swing into a nearby rock face. Parts of it, including a large dome housing a complex reflector system, shattered near the dish’s center. Photos from the ground reveal that the tops of the three towers supporting the platform also broke off. People nearby reported that as the platform came down, it sounded like an avalanche, a train, or an earthquake.

“We can confirm the platform fell and that we have reports of no injuries. We will release additional details as they are confirmed,” says Robert Margutta of the National Science Foundation (NSF), which is in charge of the facility.

The iconic telescope has been in a precarious state since August, when an auxiliary cable supporting the equipment platform broke and fell through the radio dish, leaving a 100-foot-long gash in its reflective panels. The situation became more dire in early November, when one of the main cables supporting the equipment platform also snapped, leaving the telescope on the brink of a catastrophic collapse. Inspections revealed that other cables were showing signs of weakening and degradation, and over the last couple of weeks, engineers spotted ruptured strands and other signs of impending danger.

On November 19, NSF announced that it had decided to decommission the telescope and pursue options for a controlled demolition of the dangerous structure. That decision came after engineering firms evaluated the structure and predicted that the platform would collapse in the near future if it were not repaired.

With the risk of imminent collapse, authorities determined that it was too risky to send workers up on the platform or the towers to attempt repairs.

“If we’re worried about it falling, nobody should go up there or be there when it happens,” former observatory director Michael Nolan, now at the University of Arizona, told National Geographic at the time.

“As someone who was inspired as a child by the observatory to reach for the stars, this is devastating and heartbreaking. I’ve seen how the observatory to this day continues to inspire my island,” planetary scientist Edgard Rivera-Valentin of the Lunar and Planetary Institute said at the time. Rivera-Valentin tweeted today that they are "heart broken, sad, in mourning, and crying," following the observatory's collapse.

The NSF’s decision to decommission the telescope didn’t stop scientists and Puerto Ricans, for whom the telescope holds cultural as well as scientific value, to rally in support of the observatory. For decades, the facility has been a source of pride and inspiration for the island, and it has served as a crucial resource for local communities during natural disasters. Now, the crumpled telescope leaves a large, dangerous mess to clean up—and, perhaps, a site upon which to rebuild.

Anne Virkki, who leads the planetary radar team at the observatory, writes in an email: “We’ll need to start campaigning for rebuilding from today.”

Iconic dome at Arecibo Observatory collapses



Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico, the most powerful single-dish radio telescope in the world, was damaged August 10 when an auxiliary cable that supports the suspended platform broke. On Tuesday, the entire dome collapsed. File Photo courtesy of University of Central Florida

ORLANDO, Fla., Dec. 1 (UPI) -- The iconic Arecibo Observatory radio telescope in Puerto Rico, the most powerful in the world, was destroyed Tuesday morning in an uncontrolled collapse.

The 57-year-old facility had hosted Nobel Prize-winning scientists and blockbuster Hollywood movies alike over the years. But the dome containing instruments that weighed over 1 million pounds crashed into the dish below at 6:55 a.m. EST, said Ray Lugo, director of the Florida Space Institute.

One of three skyscraper-tall towers that supported the dome broke about halfway up. The collapse came just two weeks after the National Science Foundation announced it would decommission the facility due to damage incurred by cable breaks in August and early November.

"The tops of the towers sheared off and the azimuth and dome sheared off the platform," said Lugo, who led a coalition managing the facility for the University of Central Florida in Orlando. "No one was injured. [We are] performing our assessment now."

RELATED World's most powerful radar telescope at Arecibo will be scrapped

A statement from the foundation on Twitter said, "NSF is saddened by this development. As we move forward, we will be looking for ways to assist the scientific community and maintain our strong relationship with the people of Puerto Rico."

The collapse first was reported by journalist Deborah Martorell with El Nuevo Dia, Puerto Rico's largest newspaper. She posted photos on social media showing the valley in the rural interior of the island where the dome had hung for decades, absent the iconic structure.

"Friends, it is with deep regret to inform you that the Arecibo Observatory platform has just collapsed," Martorell posted in Spanish on Twitter.

RELATED Arecibo Observatory incurs more damage as another support cable snaps

The damage from cable breaks had left the radar dish and surrounding structures unsafe and subject to further collapse at any time, foundation officials had warned.

Ancillary facilities at Arecibo that also conduct astronomical observations may be salvaged.

The visitors and learning center, however, "sustained significant damage from falling cables," the foundation reported about 7 hours after the collapse.

RELATED Arecibo Observatory seeks $10.5M for cable repairs after accident

"Engineers arrived on-site today. Working with the University of Central Florida, which manages the observatory, NSF expects to have environmental assessment workers on-site as early as tomorrow," a statement from the foundation said.

The foundation would continue to pay staff members at the facility and seek to restart smaller related facilities nearby, according to the statement. But safety assessments for the remaining structures were the first priority.

Two scientists using data from the dish have won Nobel Prizes. It was also the scene of popular movies such as 1995's GoldenEye and Species, and 1997's Contact.

The university had submitted a request to the foundation for $10.5 million to begin repairs on the August damage. That work would include at least six massive cables, which range in thickness from 3 inches to 6 inches.

But that work hadn't begun when a second larger cable broke.

The Arecibo Observatory in Puerto Rico held the world’s most powerful radar telescope, built into the rugged terrain in the mid-1960s, shown here in 2019. The dome collapsed Tuesday. File Photo by Paul Brinkmann/UPI

US: Mountain pine tree that feeds grizzlies is threatened

BILLINGS, Mont. — Climate change, voracious beetles and disease are imperiling the long-term survival of a high-elevation pine tree that’s a key source of food for some grizzly bears and found across the West, U.S. officials said Tuesday.

© Provided by The Canadian Press

A Fish and Wildlife Service proposal scheduled to be published Wednesday would protect the whitebark pine tree as a threatened species under the Endangered Species Act, according to documents posted by the Office of the Federal Register.

The move marks a belated acknowledgement of the tree's severe declines in recent decades and sets the stage for restoration work. But government officials said they do not plan to designate which forest habitats are critical to the tree’s survival, stopping short of what some environmentalists argue is needed.

Whitebark pines can live up to 1,000 years and are found at elevations up to 12,000 feet (3,600 metres) — conditions too harsh for most tress to survive.

Environmentalists had petitioned the government in 1991 and again in 2008 to protect the trees, which occur across 126,000 square miles (326,164 square kilometres) of land in Wyoming, Montana, Idaho, Washington, Oregon, California, Nevada and western Canada.

A nonnative fungus has been killing whitebark pines for a century. More recently, the trees have proven vulnerable to bark beetles that have killed millions of acres of forest, and climate change that scientists say is responsible for more severe wildfire seasons.

The trees have been all but wiped out in some areas, including the eastern edge of Yellowstone National Park, where they are a source of food for threatened grizzly bears. More than half of whitebark pines in the U.S. are now dead, according to a 2018 study from the U.S. Forest Service.

That has complicated government efforts to declare grizzlies in the Yellowstone area as a recovered species that no longer needs federal protection. Grizzlies raid caches of whitebark pine cones that are hidden by squirrels and devour the seeds within the cones to fatten up for winter.

A 2009 court ruling that restored protections for Yellowstone bears cited in part the tree's decline, although government studies later concluded the grizzlies could find other things to eat.

After getting sued for not taking steps to protect the pine trees, wildlife officials in 2011 acknowledged that whitebark pines needed protections but they took no immediate action, saying other species faced more immediate threats.

An attorney with the Natural Resources Defence Council, which submitted the 2008 petition for protections, lamented that it took so long but said the proposal was still worth celebrating.

“This is the federal government admitting that climate change is killing off a widely distributed tree, and we know that’s just the tip of the iceberg. There are many species threatened,” said Rebecca Riley, legal director for the environmental group’s nature program.

The government’s proposal describes the threats to the pine tree imminent and said it was one of many plants expected to be impacted as climate change moves faster than they can adapt.

“Whitebark pine survives at high elevations already, so there is little remaining habitat in many areas for the species to migrate to higher elevations in response to warmer temperatures,” Fish and Wildlife Service officials wrote.

The officials added that overall, whitebark pine stands have seen severe reductions in regeneration because of wildfires, a fungal disease called white pine blister rust, mountain pine beetles and climate change.

Amid those growing threats, federal officials are working in conjunction with researchers and private groups on plans to gather cones from trees that are resistant to blister rust, grow their seeds in greenhouses and then plant them back on the landscape, said Fish and Wildlife Service biologist Amy Nicholas. A draft of that nationwide restoration is expected by the end of next year.

“We do have options to revive this species,” Nicholas said.

The decision not to pursue protections for the tree's habitat is in line with another recent action by the Fish and Wildlife Service — the denial of critical habitat for t he endangered rusty patched bumblebee.

The bee's population has plummeted 90 per cent over about two decades. As with whitebark pine, loss of the bee's habitat was considered less important than other threats.

The two cases underscore a pattern of opposition to habitat protections by the administration of President Donald Trump, environmentalists said.

The Fish and Wildlife Service under Trump also has proposed rules to restrict what lands can be declared worthy of protections and to give greater weight to the economic benefits of development.

“It's clear that the intent is to limit protection of habitat for threatened and endangered species. Whitebark pine is another example of that,” said Noah Greenwald with the Center for Biological Diversity.

Fish and Wildlife Service Wyoming Field Supervisor Tyler Abbott said it would not be prudent to designate areas for habitat protections since the major threats to the trees' survival can't be addressed through land management.

“The driving factor (in the tree's decline) is that white pine blister rust, and that's working synergistically with mountain pine beetle, the altered fire regime, climate change," Abbott said. “These are biological factors that we really don't have any control over.”

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On Twitter, follow Brown @MatthewBrownAP

Matthew Brown, The Associated Press

Leaked Alberta modelling data projects upwards of 775 COVID-19 hospitalizations by mid-December

Caley Ramsay GLOBAL NEWS


The Alberta NDP says leaked modelling data shows that nearly 800 Albertans are projected to be hospitalized with COVID-19 by mid-December.

© Leah Hennel, Government of Alberta Pandemic Response Unit at the Peter Lougheed hospital in Calgary on November 14, 2020.

The Official Opposition said Tuesday it has obtained internal modelling data from Alberta Health Services that shows the increased strain on hospitals, and particularly intensive care units.

The AHS Early Warning System data, which the NDP says it received from healthcare workers, projects upwards of 775 Albertans could be hospitalized with COVID-19 by Dec. 14, with 161 of those people in intensive care. This is on the high end of the projections.

The low end of the data projects 76 people will be in the ICU by Dec. 14.

As of Monday afternoon, there were 453 Albertans in hospital with COVID-19, 96 of whom were being treated in intensive care.

"The premier went into hiding when he should have been taking action to slow the spread of COVID-19 and ease the massive strain on Alberta hospitals," Alberta NDP Leader Rachel Notley said in a news release.

"Now, we have frontline physicians warning they will soon face the horrific scenario of triaging patients and deciding who to save. We have hospitals in Calgary with oxygen shortages and we have photos surfacing online of two ICU beds being crammed into a space suitable for one."

An internal memo sent out by AHS last Friday urged staff in Calgary hospitals to reduce the use of bulk oxygen where possible due to expected constraints caused by the pandemic.

Dr. David Zygun, Edmonton zone medical director for Alberta Health Services, said the memo was part of an "anticipatory" plan to make sure there are ample resources.

"We do have an adequate oxygen supply," he said.

Read more: COVID-19: Staff at Calgary hospitals told to ‘engage in oxygen conservation’ as cases rise

The NDP has been calling on the UCP government for weeks to release updated COVID-19 modelling data.

"Many other provinces have made this kind of information public. But, repeatedly, the premier told us that modelling didn't exist," Notley said.

During question period Tuesday, Notley asked the premier why he continues to hide this important information from Albertans. Kenney stressed that the information Notley is referring to is not modelling data.

"The data to which the honourable leaders of the NDP refers is not modelling. I repeat it is not modelling," Kenney said.

"I don't know whether she is saying that out of ignorance or dishonesty. But Mr. Speaker, it is the Early Warning System about which we've spoken many times. These are two-week projections that AHS always maintains for surges or any kind of illness, particularly a communicable one of this nature. And Mr. Speaker, the important thing is that AHS is constantly adding additional capacity to meet the growing demand and we will be providing more information on hospital capacity in terms of details in the days to come."

Video: Alberta projects COVID hospitalizations could soon soar to 775 by mid-December

Kenney went on to say that comprehensive data of COVID-19 hospitalizations, fatalities, new cases and recoveries are released every day, "so Albertans have seen this very worrisome increase in cases evident for the past several weeks."

Modelling information previously released by the province showed various scenarios of infection, estimated how many Albertans would require hospitalization or critical care and predicted how many deaths the province could see.

However, little information about long-term projections for the province has been provided since the second modelling was shared on April 28.

Read more: Alberta identifying ‘unconventional ICU spaces’ as COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations rise

Kenney said in early October that Alberta does not have new COVID-19 modelling.

"The department of health, Alberta Health Services, the chief medical officer health and her team are obviously completely focused, every hour of every day, on the challenge of the pandemic, on the trend lines and on our goal of preventing and overwhelming the health-care system," Kenney said Oct. 9.

At the time, he also pointed out the projections released in the spring, thankfully, ended up being way off from the rates Alberta actually recorded.

"We have never achieved a fraction of the number of active cases, of hospitalizations, ICU admissions or COVID-related fatalities that were projected in that modelling," Kenney said.

"At this point, we don't believe that creating hypothetical numbers is going to improve our COVID response."

Read more: Alberta hasn’t provided COVID-19 models since April; NDP wants new data released

AHS said Monday that there are currently 173 general adult ICU beds in the province and it has plans to expand that up to a total of 425 ICU beds.

In a statement Tuesday, AHS said it is constantly monitoring the current and future demand on the healthcare system, including the growth in COVID-19 cases. It added that the Early Warning System is one tool used to predict hospitalization and ICU numbers.

"It provides a point-in-time forecast, and is updated constantly throughout the day. Yesterday, it forecast a low (76), medium (113) and high (161) number of ICU spaces needed to meet demand. AHS is already increasing capacity to meet this forecast, and the potential for higher demand due to COVID-19," AHS said.

Read more: Alberta nurse practitioner describes ICU during pandemic: ‘We’re feeling a bit defeated’

In the coming weeks, about 2,250 acute care beds will also be allocated for patients with COVID-19 across Alberta, AHS said. In the past two weeks, an additional 20 critical care beds have opened in Edmonton and 10 additional critical care spaces opened in Calgary this past weekend, according to AHS.

"Our ICU occupancy is very high and we thank our incredible front-line teams for the care they are providing in challenging circumstances," AHS said. "We need everyone's help to reduce demand on our healthcare system."

Alberta's chief medical officer of health said Tuesday that she has been concerned about the trajectory and impacts to the healthcare system "for some time."

"Which is, of course, why I have been making recommendations to put interventions in place that will bend the curve," Dr. Deena Hinshaw said.

She said the AHS projections "simply take into account the number of cases that we're actually seeing and the trajectory out, should we continue to see the same kinds of growth trends."

"That really is based simply on actual numbers within that calculation if nothing were to change looking at that worst-case scenario," Hinshaw said.

"So those projections do not take into account the impact of changes and of course, that is exactly the point of those restrictions that were announced last week is to prevent us from hitting those high projections because what we need to do is to bend that curve down."

Video: AHS doctor says Alberta hospitals are under ‘significant strain’ amid COVID-19 pandemic

Dr. Craig Jenne, an infectious disease specialist from the University of Calgary, said the models look fairly accurate, keeping in mind that multiple scenarios are being presented. He said the question that remains is where Alberta sits on the scale. Based on the record rates of infection in the past few days, Jenne believes Alberta is leaning more toward the higher-burden models.

"These high-burden models are showing a near-doubling in ICU occupancy over the next two weeks," he said Tuesday.

"We do know, unfortunately, ICU numbers tend to follow case numbers by two to three weeks. So it is the people being infected today that will be the ICU admissions in the next two weeks. So unfortunately, it looks as though those numbers may already be predetermined by the viral load in the community and record numbers that we've seen over the past several days.

"The hope though is over the next 10 days the curve begins to flatten and then that will have an impact on hospitalizations and intensive care units. But unfortunately, not for four to five weeks from today -- or the new restrictions -- will we see a dramatic impact on intensive care unit admissions if the restrictions work. And that's another big if at this particular moment."

New restrictions announced last week by the premier were designed to address COVID-19 hot spots while keeping the majority of businesses open. Retails must limit their capacity to 25 per cent and dine-in restaurant seating is now limited to one household per table. Indoor gatherings were also banned across the province.

Read more: Alberta enacts 2nd COVID-19 state of public health emergency. Here’s what it means

Jenne said it's too soon to say if the new restrictions will have a big impact on the COVID-19 curve in Alberta, but suggested they may not go far enough.

"So far from the data we have not seen any hint that the curve had begun to flatten here in Alberta," he said.

"Unfortunately, we do know in the next few weeks we will continue to stress the system. There's nothing that can be done today that's going to stop new admissions for the next two weeks. The big question is, how well will the restrictions work going forward? It looks as though evidence from other jurisdictions that the restrictions we brought in may not be enough. Again, even with more strict restrictions, curves have not completely flattened and so as a result -- it would be a guess -- but based on the evidence, lighter restrictions are going to be less effective at bringing that curve under control.

"So I'm not overly optimistic that the current level of restrictions will be enough. Hopefully they'll help. Hopefully they'll slow things. But I don't think this will be enough to flatten that curve or to -- at least in the short-term -- ease the healthcare burden."

Hinshaw said Monday she suspects case counts and hospitalizations will continue to increase over the next several days, "as we wait for the impact of the restrictions that were announced last week."

However, she stressed that "at this time, there is adequate capacity to care for all those with COVID."

CANADA

COMMENTARY: Battling an ‘infodemic’ a real concern as COVID-19 vaccine nears
  

© REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration

A woman holds a small bottle labeled with a "Vaccine COVID-19" sticker and a medical syringe in this illustration taken April 10, 2020.

Editor’s note: The opinions in this article are the author’s, as published by our content partner, and do not necessarily represent the views of MSN or Microsoft.

Meera Estrada GLOBAL NEWS 

COVID-19 has taken the lives of over 1.4 million people worldwide. But we are now closer than ever to a vaccine.

With Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca leading the pack in COVID-19 vaccine development, there is glimmering hope for the near future. Governments in the U.S., U.K. and Germany have already made plans to start rolling out vaccines to their populations most vulnerable as early as next month.


But global efforts to put an end to the pandemic will prove challenging without the public onside. After all, a vaccine is only as effective as its distribution.

"The coronavirus disease is the first pandemic in history in which technology and social media are being used on a massive scale to keep people safe, informed, productive and connected," the World Health Organization has said.

Read more: Misinformation is spreading as fast as coronavirus. It will ‘take a village’ to fight it

But just as the virus has spread around the globe, so too has misinformation. As early as February the WHO warned of an "infodemic," a flood of fake news and misinformation being disseminated about the pandemic over social media. From Facebook, Twitter, YouTube, WhatsApp to a slew of other social media hubs, misinformation has reached an epic scale.

U.S. President Donald Trump has been called out as the biggest superspreader of COVID-19 misinformation, according to findings in a study conducted last month by Cornell University.

With skepticism mounting, global efforts to control this virus may be seriously jeopardized if people are unwilling to roll up their sleeves for vaccination.

Vaccine hesitancy is a real and growing concern across the globe, including right here in Canada.


Canadians could get first COVID-19 vaccine in early 2021

I've had surprising conversations with my own parents about their trepidation in regards to vaccination. They are not anti-vaxxers by any means. My mother was a health-care professional for over 40 years; she worked tirelessly on the front lines during the SARS outbreak and understands the seriousness of infectious disease first-hand. Both my mother and father are in their 70s, both with diabetes, which puts them at higher risk for COVID-19 complications, but even still, they have reservations about vaccination -- largely fuelled by social media.

This week alone my father forwarded me two videos that were sent to him on WhatsApp, one outlining how to legally decline vaccination and another offering various reasons not to vaccinate against COVID-19. After a few moments of watching, I quickly asked him to delete the videos and not share any further.

My parents are smart individuals, with educational backgrounds in science. That is what makes much of this misinformation and fake news around COVID-19 so scary -- so many people fall prey to it.

Much of the rhetoric is not the usual anti-vax sentiment. It is not even necessarily anti-science or anti-intellectual, but it is false. Yet repeated exposure to such content has the ability to sway perceptions around not only the vaccine, but even the virus overall.

Read more: Canada’s coronavirus vaccine rollout — Who will get it first?

In summer polling, a majority of respondents said they were in favour of the Canadian government's requiring that people get inoculated once a vaccine has been developed. However, the latest polling finds that is no longer the case, with 54 per cent of respondents saying a vaccine should be voluntary (an 11 percentage point increase from July) while only 39 per cent say getting a vaccine should be mandatory, a marked 18 percentage point decline from July. There is a noticeable shift in when and even if people want to get vaccinated.

Much of the concern lies around the speed with which the vaccine has been developed and subsequent safety. A Statistics Canada survey in August found some Canadians are also worried about possible side effects of a COVID-19 vaccine.

Not surprisingly, much of the fake news that is swirling around feeds into exactly these fears. While it is true that the average vaccine takes at least 10 years to develop, the context of this particular development is critical when looking at timelines.


Coronavirus: The challenges in distributing vaccines

We have to take into account the work that was done on previous coronaviruses, like SARS and MERS, paired with the global prioritization that has been put on a COVID-19 vaccine. With the initial research groundwork laid and usual administrative red tape for funding and approvals avoided, researchers have been able to shave anywhere between six and nine years off the development process.

Our federal government and public health officials have acknowledged they have cut red tape in order to speed up approvals, but they are insistent that they will not take shortcuts when it comes to safety, quality and efficacy.

Health Canada "is one of the most stringent regulatory authorities in the world," chief public health officer Dr. Theresa Tam has said. She wants Canadians to understand that the speed with which these vaccines are being developed does not diminish our government's commitment to their safety.

Read more: AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine manufacturing error raises questions

Aware of the misinformation that is spreading, the government is planning a campaign to educate the public on vaccination. A group of scientists have already taken steps by using the same social media tools for education.

For example, the hashtag #TeamHalo is being used on platforms like TikTok and Twitter by specialists working on vaccine development to debunk falsehoods and provide answers to questions everyday people may have on development.

To date, Canada has agreements with five vaccine manufacturers, with two more in the final stages of a deal. We are slated to receive 194 million doses with options for an additional 220 doses for purchase.

The Public Health Agency of Canada is working closely with the Canadian Armed Forces on a distribution plan. In order for us to achieve herd immunity, roughly 70 per cent of Canadians would need to be vaccinated.

But with a growing minority of Canadians on the fence about vaccination, we could be putting ourselves at risk of not getting there.

Meera Estrada is a cultural commentator and co-host of kultur’D! on Global News Radio 640 Toronto.

 

Alcohol-free hand sanitizer just as effective against COVID as alcohol-based versions

BRIGHAM YOUNG UNIVERSITY

Research News

 

IMAGE: AN ILLUSTRATION OF HAND SANITIZER IN USE view more 

CREDIT: BYU PHOTO

A new study from researchers at Brigham Young University finds that alcohol-free hand sanitizer is just as effective at disinfecting surfaces from the COVID-19 virus as alcohol-based products.

The BYU scientists who conducted the study suspected that the CDC's preference for alcohol sanitizer stemmed from as-yet limited research on what really works to disinfect SARS-CoV-2. To explore other options, they treated samples of the novel coronavirus with benzalkonium chloride, which is commonly used in alcohol-free hand sanitizers, and several other quaternary ammonium compounds regularly found in disinfectants. In most of the test cases, the compounds wiped out at least 99.9% of the virus within 15 seconds.

"Our results indicate that alcohol-free hand sanitizer works just as well, so we could, maybe even should, be using it to control COVID," said lead study author Benjamin Ogilvie.

Alcohol-free hand sanitizers, which are also effective against common cold and flu viruses, have a number of advantages over their alcohol-based counterparts, Ogilvie explained.

"Benzalkonium chloride can be used in much lower concentrations and does not cause the familiar 'burn' feeling you might know from using alcohol hand sanitizer. It can make life easier for people who have to sanitize hands a lot, like healthcare workers, and maybe even increase compliance with sanitizing guidelines," he said.

In the face of shortages, "having more options to disinfect hospitals and public places is critical," added Ph.D. student Antonio Solis Leal, who conducted the study's experiments.

Switching to alcohol-free hand sanitizer is logistically simple as well.

"People were already using it before 2020," said BYU professor and coauthor Brad Berges. "It just seems like during this pandemic, the non-alcohol-based hand sanitizers have been thrown by the wayside because the government was saying, 'we don't know that these work,' due to the novelty of the virus and the unique lab conditions required to run tests on it."

Since benzalkonium chloride typically works well against viruses surrounded by lipids--like COVID--the researchers believed that it would be a good fit for disinfecting the coronavirus.

To test their hypothesis, they put COVID samples in test tubes and then mixed in different compounds, including .2% benzalkonium chloride solution and three commercially available disinfectants containing quaternary ammonium compounds, as well as soil loads and hard water.

Working fast to simulate real-world conditions--because hand sanitizer has to disinfect quickly to be effective--they neutralized the disinfecting compounds, extracted the virus from the tubes, and placed the virus particles on living cells. The virus failed to invade and kill the cells, indicating that it had been deactivated by the compounds.

"A couple of others have looked at using these compounds against COVID," said Berges, "but we're the first to actually look at it in a practical timeframe, using four different options, with the realistic circumstance of having dirt on your hands before you use it."

The team believes their findings "may actually provide a change in government directions about hand sanitizer," Berges said.

Ogilvie hopes that reintroducing alcohol-free sanitizers into the market can relieve the shortages--and reduce the chances of people encountering some potentially "sketchy" alcohol sanitizers that have cropped up in response to the demand.

"Hand sanitizer can play an especially important role in controlling COVID," he concluded. "This is information that could affect millions of people."

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The study is published online in the Journal of Hospital Infection.

Seismic activity of New Zealand's alpine fault more complex than suspected

SEISMOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA

Research News

 

A rupture along the full length of the fast-slipping Alpine Fault on New Zealand's South Island poses the largest potential seismic threat to the southern and central parts of the country. But new evidence of a 19th century earthquake indicates that in at least one portion of the fault, smaller earthquakes may occur in between such large rupture events.

The findings published in the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America suggest that some places along the fault, particularly around the towns of Hokitika and Greymouth, could experience strong ground shaking from Alpine fault earthquakes more often than previously thought.

The best paleoseismic evidence to date suggests the southern and central sections of the Alpine Fault, at the boundary separating the Australian and Pacific tectonic plates, typically rupture during very large full-section earthquakes of magnitude 7.7 or larger. The last such earthquake took place in 1717.

After trenching along the fault at the Staples site near the Toaroha River, however, Robert Langridge of GNS Science and colleagues uncovered evidence of a more recent earthquake along the northeastern end of the fault's central portion. Radiocarbon dating places this earthquake between 1813 and 1848.

"One of the real challenges with the Alpine Fault--because it is so bush-covered--is actually finding sites that have been cleared and therefore can be studied," said Langridge. "Once we started working there [at the Staples site] the story really grew in large part because of the richness of dateable organic material in the trenches."

The four most recent earthquakes uncovered by the researchers at the site range in dates from 1084 to 1848. The events were confirmed by data collected from other nearby trenching sites and from geological deposits called turbidites, which are sediments shaken loose into a body of water by seismic activity, in lakes along the central section of the Alpine fault.

The most recent earthquake could represent a "partial-section" rupture of only the central portion of the Alpine fault, a rupture of the fault's northern section that continued southwest into the central segment, or even triggered slip from a rupture along the nearby Marlborough Fault System. Langridge and colleagues said that there isn't enough evidence yet to favor one of these scenarios over the others.

However, the findings do suggest that seismic activity on the Alpine Fault is more complex than suspected, particularly along its northern reaches where the plate boundary transitions into another fault zone.

"One of the outcomes of this study is that you should expect a shorter recurrence interval of strong shaking at fault section ends," Langridge said. "Because of the recurrence times of earthquakes though, you obviously have to wait a long time to see the effects of such fault behavior."

"That's why paleoseismology is a vital tool in understanding faults," he added, "because otherwise we'd have only short insights into the past."

The Alpine Fault is sometimes compared with California's San Andreas Fault, being another fast-moving strike slip fault near a plate boundary. Langridge said researchers in California and New Zealand have a long history of earthquake science collaboration and are learning from each other about the treatment of active faults and fault segmentation for seismic hazard models.

"The San Andreas Fault, being on the opposite side of the Pacific plate, it is like our distant brother or whanau--family," said Langridge.

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Long-term data shows racial & ethnic disparities in effectiveness of anti-smoking measures

OREGON STATE UNIVERSITY

Research News

 

CORVALLIS, Ore. -- Tobacco control efforts have reduced cigarette smoking for many, but those efforts have disproportionately helped white smokers, while other racial and ethnic groups are still struggling, an Oregon State University researcher's analysis found.

The study, published recently in the journal Nicotine & Tobacco Research, compared cigarette use among racial and ethnic groups. Across all groups, the number of cigarettes consumed per day dropped roughly 30% between 1992 and 2019.

However, the reduction in cigarette use was highest for non-Hispanic whites, an indication that the tobacco control policies implemented over the last 25 years have benefited this group more than others, said Kari-Lyn Sakuma, lead author on the study and an assistant professor in OSU's College of Public Health and Human Sciences.

"I think the biggest takeaway is that while there's been major advances in reducing cigarette use, and in death and sickness associated with cigarettes, we still have a long way to go, particularly as we start to look at who benefited the most from these major efforts to reduce the impact of cigarettes on health," Sakuma said.

"We can see dramatic decreases among white populations. But when you start looking at racial and ethnic groups, and examining more closely the different cigarette use behaviors, it gives us clues as to where the disparities exist and where we can do better to target our public health efforts."

The study compared cigarette use among African Americans, Asian/Pacific Islanders, Hispanics/Latinos, American Indian/Alaskan Natives and non-Hispanic whites, as these were the racial and ethnic groups delineated by the U.S. Census Bureau's Current Population Survey.

Researchers compared results for each group in the U.S. as a whole with each group's results in California specifically. California was chosen as a state that has been at the forefront in legislation and intervention to curb tobacco use, and the data shows cigarette use there has declined more sharply than the U.S. average, across all groups.

Researchers looked at the change over time in how many cigarettes smokers said they smoked each day and how many days they smoked; the rate of uptake, or how many people started smoking for the first time; and how many people successfully quit smoking.

Sakuma has been studying the disparate impact of tobacco use among specific racial and ethnic groups for years. She said tobacco companies have poured lots of money into advertising and marketing their products specifically in low-income neighborhoods and in African American and Hispanic/Latino neighborhoods. These companies also invest significant funds in countering public health policies that could help protect communities.

Lower income neighborhoods have fewer resources to combat these messages, especially because most tobacco control measures start with local pressure -- such as communities pushing to ban cigarette billboards near schools.

"In other communities, there's other things that they need to fight for. While one community may have the task force and resources to create policies to reduce advertising around schools, other folks in lower-income areas are fighting for their schools to remain open," Sakuma said. "It's a difference in ability to address these issues."

Communities with more resources can also afford to fight court battles with tobacco companies and raise public awareness around ballot measures seeking to reduce cigarette use.

Moving forward, Sakuma said, policy makers should prioritize public health efforts that use the study results to tailor public health messaging and outreach for racial and ethnic groups that could benefit more fully from the tobacco control measures of the last few decades.

"We've been successful in the past, but we have to maintain that success while targeting some efforts and distributing more resources among higher-risk groups or more vulnerable communities," she said.

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