How climate change has influenced 2020's Atlantic hurricane season

Scientists have confirmed the links between 2020’s record-breaking Atlantic hurricane season and the changing climate. Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, scorching heat waves in the Arctic and catastrophic wildfires in the Western U.S., eyes were drawn to the unusually hyperactive Atlantic basin, a trend that is expected to become increasingly common in the coming decades.

What's fueling this active 2020 hurricane season

There were 30 named storms, which is the highest number on record and six major hurricanes, which is a tie for the second highest on record. Twelve named storms made landfall in the U.S., which exceeds the previous record of nine in 1916.

Forecasters began warning of an above-active hurricane season in the spring based on the absence of an El Niño and the potential for abnormally warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures, which increases the threat for more storm development, as tropical cyclones are fueled by warm ocean waters.

Their early warnings came to fruition - September 10 marked the peak of hurricane season in the Atlantic and less than two weeks later forecasters ran out of traditional names for all the tropical cyclones and had to switch to the Greek alphabet. A La Niña Advisory was issued on the same day, which is related to weaker vertical wind shear, trade winds and less atmospheric stability, which all could support more hurricanes forming in the Atlantic basin.

In addition to the conditions that are optimal for hurricane formation, climate scientists say that 2020 is an example of how climate change is influencing the Atlantic hurricane season. Rapid intensification and stalling storms are two of the most prominent hurricane behaviours that are being highlighted. See below for an explanation of what the current research tells us about how hurricanes are being affected by climate change.
QUICKLY INTENSIFYING

Forecasters began using the Greek alphabet to name tropical storms after they ran out of traditional names mid-September. The only time this has happened was during 2005 when several record-breaking hurricanes made history, including Katrina, which claimed over 1,200 lives in the United States.

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View of flooded New Orleans, Louisiana on September 11, 2005 in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina. Credit: NOAA/ Wikimedia Commons

Several hurricanes in 2020 intensified at extremely rapid rates that shattered several records. Within a six-hour period on September 18, Tropical Storm Wilfred, Subtropical Storm Alpha, and Tropical Storm Beta were named by the National Hurricane Center (NHC). According to Phil Klotzbach, a meteorologist at Colorado State University, this was the first time since August 15, 1893 that three storms formed on the same calendar day.

Climate scientists confirm that the noticeable changes in the Atlantic hurricane season are not due to natural changes in the environment. A study published in Nature Communications in 2019 found that the “highly unusual” trend of Atlantic hurricanes rapidly intensifying from 1982-2009 could only be explained when human-caused climate change was analyzed as a contributing factor.

NOAA researchers say that high levels of greenhouse gases are reducing vertical wind shear along the U.S. East Coast, which is a foreboding projection for the region. NOAA explains that this shear acts like a “speed bump” to hurricanes that are approaching the coast, which prevents them from rapidly intensifying before making landfall. At least 75 per cent of NOAA’s climate projections indicate that vertical wind shear will decline during peak hurricane season by 2100, which will leave heavily populated coastlines vulnerable to storms that could rapidly intensify as they approach.

Hurricane Laura rapidly strengthened by 105 km/h in just 24 hours before it made landfall in Louisiana on August 27, 2020. As Laura approached the U.S. coastline, the NHC warned that “life-threatening storm surge” from this storm could be “unsurvivable.” Jeff Masters, a meteorologist who received his B.Sc., M.Sc., and Ph.D. degrees from the University of Michigan, notes that Laura’s rapid intensification was similar to Hurricane Michael (2018) and Hurricane Harvey (2017), which both strengthened between 60-70 km/h in a 24 hour period before making landfall in the U.S.

“Unfortunately, not only is human-caused climate change making the strongest hurricanes stronger, it is also making dangerous rapidly intensifying hurricanes like Laura and Michael and Harvey more common,” Masters says.

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Soldiers from the Louisiana National Guard respond immediately after Hurricane Laura destroyed much of Lake Charles. Credit: Josiah Pugh/ Wikimedia Commons

Experts warn that rapidly intensifying hurricanes are especially dangerous for communities that are in the storm’s path because the lack of warning makes it difficult to properly prepare and evacuate soon enough. This type of hurricane behaviour is particularly challenging for forecasters as it complicates how they can communicate the storm’s risk well in advance of it making landfall.

A study published by the Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society (AMS) compared the intensification speeds of landfalling U.S. hurricanes from 1979-2005 to hurricane activity that is expected by 2100. The conditions for the future projects assumed that greenhouse gas emissions will continue at their present-day rate, and the models showed that rapidly intensifying hurricanes will become much more common.

The AMS’s study found that the odds of a hurricane intensifying by 111 km/h or more in the 24 hours just before landfall were about once every 100 years in the climate from 1979-2005, but increased to once every 5 to 10 years by 2100. Nearly all of the rapidly intensifying hurricanes occurred along the coast of the Gulf of Mexico, and the major areas facing the highest risk include Houston, New Orleans, Tampa/ St. Petersburg, and Miami.

Other findings from the AMS’s study include a 118 per cent increase in the frequency of tropical cyclones and a 10 per cent increase in their lifetime maximum wind speed.

VIDEO "See all 30 storms in 90 seconds: the record-breaking Atlantic hurricane season recap"

SLOWING DOWN AND STALLING

Researchers from Environment Canada and Climate Change found that extreme precipitation events are becoming more intense and are becoming more likely to occur as the climate warms. Since the atmosphere holds more water vapour when it is warmer, roughly 7 per cent more per 1°C, hurricanes can produce greater amounts of precipitation. Warmer sea surface temperatures also help fuel wind speeds, which allows them to rapidly strengthen.

The warmer atmosphere allows hurricanes to unleash more rain, but the sluggish pace of certain hurricanes have been an especially apparent impact of the changing climate.

Hurricane Sally made landfall on September 16 near Gulf Shores, Alabama after unexpectedly re-intensifying from Category 1 to Category 2 status. Sally began churning extremely slowly when it approached Mississippi’s coastline at just 4 km/h, which allowed for a prolonged period of significant rainfall. Several coastal areas were warned by the NHC that over 600 mm of rain could fall and the potential of “life-threatening storm surge.”

Sally is the most recent example of a hurricane stalling over a populated area and causing devastating damage. In 2019, Hurricane Dorian became one of the most powerful Atlantic hurricanes on record and stalled over part of the Bahamas for roughly 36 hours. The Category 5 storm brought over 900 mm of rain to some of the islands and left 70,000 people homeless with an official death toll of 74.

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A U.S. Coast Guard Response Team rescued nine people and one dog Sept. 16, 2020 near Navarre Beach, Florida after Hurricane Sally made landfall.

 Credit: United States Coast Guard/ Wikimedia Commons

Sea surface temperatures are also rising as greenhouse gas emissions climb and scientists say that this is affecting how tropical cyclones travel over land. A study published in Nature analyzed the intensity data from storms that made landfall in North America between 1967-2018 and found that tropical storms are decaying much more slowly 24 hours after landfall. The researchers say that the slower decay is largely connected to warming sea surface temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean because it fuels the amount of moisture in a hurricane and allows it to maintain its strength for longer.

In 2017, Hurricane Harvey made landfall as a Category 4 hurricane and stalled over parts of southern Texas for several days and unleashed 1,300 mm of rainfall in Cedar Bayou, which set a new North American record.

These storms are just a few of the hurricanes that have stalled and caused extensive damage. Scientists have noted that the translation speeds of hurricanes and tropical storms, which is how quickly the storms move over an area, decreased by about 10 percent from 1949 to 2016.

James Kossin, a climate scientist in NOAA's Center for Weather and Climate, warns hurricanes could be stalling due to human-released greenhouse gases causing tropical circulation changes and more water vapour in the atmosphere. Kossin says hurricanes are continuously bringing unprecedented rainfall totals and cites Hurricane Harvey as a “notable example of the relationship between regional rainfall amounts and tropical-cyclone translation speed.”

“As the atmosphere warms, the general circulation of our atmosphere changes. These new circulation patterns naturally vary by region and time of year, but there is evidence that anthropogenic warming causes a general weakening of the summertime tropical circulation. Since winds that carry these tropical cyclones during the summer months are weaker, this in part explains why the translation speed of tropical cyclones has also slowed down with the warming,” says Dr. Mario Picazo, meteorologist and professor at the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA).

Picazo explains beyond circulation changes, human-caused climate change is behind the increase in precipitation rates associated with tropical cyclones. A warmer environment causes the atmosphere to hold more water vapour, which will increase the amount of rainfall released from tropical cyclones in the coming years.

Thumbnail credit: NASA

This article was originally published on September 24, 2020 and updated on December 13, 2020.

U.S. firm deploys drones to replenish forests destroyed by wildfires

Nathan Howes CNN

With a record-setting wildfire season blazing across the U.S., one company has found a possible solution for quickly regenerating the vast amount of lost forests.

VIDEO Tree-planting drones being employed to replenish forests"

Normally, naturally and manually restoring this year's devastating loss of more than 8 million acres of land (3,237,485 hectares) from the wildfires would take years to complete.

But Seattle-based DroneSeed believes it has an effective and efficient answer to the problem -- using fleets of drones (also referred to as drone swarms) to reforest burned-down areas by releasing "seed vessels" onto sections that have the best chances of re-populating.

The eight-foot drones, which the company can fly up to five at a time on pre-programmed routes, can cover up to 50 acres (20.23 hectares) a day and each unit can hold as much as 57 pounds of seed vessels, DroneSeed CEO Grant Canary told CNN Business.

"We are six times faster than a tree planter out there with a shovel who's doing about two acres a day," Canary said. "And we've cut the supply chains [for getting new seeds in the ground] down from three years to three months."

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Fleets of drones (also referred to as drone swarms) are being used to reforest burned-down areas by releasing "seed vessels" onto sections that have the best chances of re-populating. Photo: DroneSeed.

The Federal Aviation Administration (FDA) granted DroneSeed exemptions earlier this year to allow the company to use the swarms to replant the burned forests.

The firm has already put them to use in replacing forests impacted by the August Complex Fire in California and Oregon's Holiday Farm Fire. It is also reviewing other fire-stricken areas currently along the West coast where the technology can be used.

Using aircraft to replenish depleted forests isn’t a new idea, as planes and helicopters are frequently utilized to distribute seeds. While experts consider the method more cost-effective than hand-planting, it may not be as effective as manual work.

"Just throwing forest tree seeds out of airplanes can be successful, and it's a lot cheaper than manual planting," said Ralph Schmidt, a professor at the Earth Institute of Columbia University, in an interview with CNN. "Growing seedlings in nurseries and manually planting them will always have a much higher success rate than aerial sowing, but it is much more expensive."

© Provided by The Weather Network

The Federal Aviation Administration (FDA) granted DroneSeed exemptions earlier this year to allow the company to use the swarms to replant the burned forests. Photo: DroneSeed.

The key to the success of the replantation is choosing the right species of seed and the right place to drop them onto, Schmidt added.

The seed vessels are specially designed packets that contain a combination of fertilizers, nutrients and pest deterrents that help plant the seeds more effectively — without having to be manually buried in the ground.

According to the company, it can grow up to 140 trees per acre based on tests in New Zealand and Washington state.

"Now, with this fire season, we've got unprecedented demand," Canary said.

© Provided by The Weather Network

While experts consider planting seeds by air more cost-effective than doing it manually, it may not be as effective as manual work. Photo:DroneSeed.

The DroneSeed CEO is optimistic the technology will aid in the replanting of forests in a more effective manner — but it's not the only solution on the table.

"Now, I'm not saying we should get rid of nurseries, we should keep all the nurseries that we have because we need all the trees we can get," he added. "But we've got to be able to do it faster."

Thumbnail courtesy of DroneSeed.

Source: CNN

NFU stands in solidarity with Indian farmers protesting new agricultural laws

DECEMBER 6, 2020
FOOD SOVEREIGNTY INTERNATIONAL SOLIDARITY

The National Farmers Union stands in solidarity with farmers in India, who continue to protest new agricultural laws formally passed in September. This agriculture reform will effectively undermine the guaranteed prices farmers receive through government purchase of staple crops and open them up to exploitation by large corporations. Tens of thousands of Indian farmers are protesting, demanding that these reforms be rescinded or that a new law be introduced to guarantee them a minimum price for their crops. “We in Canada recognize the Indian farmers’ struggle as similar to our own struggle. We support them in their right to protest, and in their call for agriculture policy that supports the millions of smallholder farmers growing food in India,” said NFU President Katie Ward.


As shrinking net farm incomes reach a crisis level for farmers around the world and also in Canada, Canadian farmers understand the need for government regulation that works for farmers rather than for those who take profits at the expense of farmers. “We have experienced the dismantling of institutions that were vital to the bargaining power and, by extension, incomes of Canadian farmers,” said NFU Vice-President Stewart Wells, “For example the loss of the single desk marketing system for hogs in the 1990’s and more recently the destruction of the Canadian Wheat Board, among others.”

As a result of losing the single-desk marketing system for hogs, thousands of Canadian farmers could no longer raise hogs because they could not access the market without a contract. The intentional shift to corporate hog production has left that sector fully vertically integrated and dominated by only three meat processing corporations. Prices are regularly below the cost of the production. The industry is heavily dependent on government safety nets to ride out the highly volatile market. It is an industry now largely devoid of family farmers. The change in hog farming in Canada was swift and brutal for family farmers raising hogs – a direct result of agriculture policy aimed at assisting corporations instead of farmers.


While the circumstances of Indian farmers are vastly different than Canadian farmers in many ways, it is clear that agricultural policies that serve to undercut farmers’ livelihoods to make room for large corporations to profit will have devastating consequences for the millions of smallholder farmers and their families.

India’s food security is threatened, as the new laws will shift its agricultural economy from “food production” for people to “commodity production” for trade and export. Farmers take on more debt and risk in a system of contract farming. The new laws will lift the ban on hoarding food by corporate buyers, which will allow them to capitalize on ups and downs in production by price-gouging consumers during shortages and depressing prices to farmers in times of abundance.


“Farmers did not ask for this reform, and it is not in their interest. The impacts will be devastating and far-reaching. Canada’s NFU supports Indian farmers in their opposition to these reforms,” Ward stated, “We object to the suppression of democratic protest taking place in India this week. We stand with Indian farmers, and their right to protect their livelihoods by protesting the imposition of these unjust laws.”

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Backgrounder to NFU statement in solidarity with Indian farmers

DECEMBER 8, 2020
INTERNATIONAL SOLIDARITY

Why are India’s farmers protesting?

India has 164 million farmers, and many have small farms where they grow food to feed themselves and sell locally to feed their communities. Over half of India’s workforce is involved in the agriculture sector. Hundreds of thousands of farmers are protesting impending changes that will result from three controversial laws. Farm leaders have been in talks with government, demanding that these laws be repealed. Tens of thousands of farmers are in New Delhi itself, and more camped out around the city, blocking entrances. Protests are occurring all across India, with the support of non-farmers in other sectors such as transport. On December 8, the farmers called for a peaceful national general strike in support of their demands.

New laws passed in September set to go into effect in December

In June 2020 the Indian Cabinet put forward three controversial agriculture reform bills in conjunction with its suite of COVID 19 measures. In September, these bills – The Farmers (Empowerment & Protection) Agreement of Price Assurance and Farm Services Bill, The Essential Commodities Act (Amendment) Bill and Farmers’ Produce Trade and Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) Bill – were passed by the Indian Parliament in a rushed process, without allowing for extended debate or careful examination by a committee. The final vote was conducted by voice rather than ballot, making it impossible to have a clear count of the votes. The bills will become law once they are approved by President Ram Nath Kovind, which is expected to happen in December.
The Bills

The Farmers (Empowerment & Protection) Agreement of Price Assurance and Farm Services Bill – This bill allows for direct contracting between farmers and buyers prior to sowing, but does not require these contracts to be in writing, does not penalize companies that fail to register their contracts, and does not set a minimum price. The farmers can thus be left with no recourse if terms of the contracts are not fulfilled.

The Essential Commodities Act (Amendment) Bill – This bill removes all limits that have, until now, prevented companies from hoarding basic food items including cereals, pulses, oilseeds, edible oils, onions, and potatoes, even in the event of war, famine or natural disaster. This change was made at the request of food processing and food exporting corporations.

Farmers’ Produce Trade and Commerce (Promotion and Facilitation) Bill – This bill deregulates trade by allowing farmers to sell outside of their own state’s Agricultural Produce and Livestock Market Committee (APMC) markets, and prevents states from collecting fees from the markets to fund their operation. This will allow corporations to set up their own, unregulated markets.

Implications for farmers

Direct contracting increases the power of buyers. To reduce costs of obtaining supplies, companies will purchase from the largest farms and/or look for the lowest prices. This will lead to small farms no longer having access to any market. As small farmers are forced out, land holdings will become larger and more concentrated. Vertical integration of farms with processing companies will accelerate this process, as risks and debts are offloaded onto the least powerful in the value chain.

As small farmers lose their land or are no longer able to survive on lower, deregulated prices they will be forced to leave villages and move to cities, where employment is uncertain. Small farmers produce food for themselves and communities. By shifting from public markets to corporate buyers who operate nationally, food will move towards to larger markets. There will be less food available locally and it will be more expensive.

Allowing corporations to hoard food empowers them to buy up supplies at low prices when there is a good harvest. It shifts the public “strategic reserve” meant to buffer volatility and prevent hardship and instead creates private control of the food supply. Companies will be allowed to export hoarded food, even in the event of natural disaster, war or famine in India.
The new laws create a positive environment for consolidation of farmland, concentration of ownership in agricultural companies, greater control of markets and prices by large processors, retailers and exporters, and increased sales of commercial seed, chemical inputs such as fertilizer, herbicides and pesticides, and digital technology for data mining, surveillance and automation.

Which powerful corporations stand to gain?

Some of the same multinational food, agribusiness and technology companies active in Canada are also active in India: including Bayer, BASF, Dow Dupont, Nestle, Coca Cola, Pespsi, Amazon, IBM and Microsoft. Some of the large agribusiness corporations are also Indian, such as Tata, Bharat Group, Atul, and Nuziveedu Seeds.

Why does this matter to Canadians?

If allowed to go into effect, these laws will increase the power of the world’s largest agribusiness corporations. It will embolden them to demand similar changes in other countries. The ability of large corporations to force down prices to Indian farmers and to demand adherence to corporate priorities as a condition of making a living will affect farmers around the world.

As Canadians and fellow farmers we recognize the harm that the Indian laws will do to Indian farmers and their families. We want to live in a world where human lives are respected, where people can democratically shape their future together, carry forward their food cultures intact, and have hope that our children will be able to live well as farmers if and when they choose to.

We are stronger when we act together, whether it is by marketing our products or standing up for our rights.

 'The country needs me:' cleaner in Chicago's COVID wards proud to fight pandemic

By Shannon Stapleton, Ana Isabel Martinez DECEMBER 11, 2020


CHICAGO (Reuters) - When hospital cleaner Evelia De La Cruz was assigned to the COVID-19 ward in March, she was afraid

Some of De La Cruz’s colleagues refused to work the COVID-19 wards, she said, leaving the hospital understaffed. She has been laboring seven days a week, at times for weeks on end.

“Every day I went to work, even on my days off, because I know that the patients need me, the hospital and the country needs me,” she said.

Throughout the northern hemisphere spring, as the coronavirus ravaged through international cities, residents of Rome, Madrid, New York City and beyond took to their balconies to applaud frontline medical workers who, often overlooked in non-pandemic years, had become symbols of sacrifice in terrifying times.

Ten months and over a million and a half global deaths later, nurses and doctors continue to risk their lives every day as they report to the hospitals.

Yet, their ability to work has relied on a less visible category of frontline staff: cleaners and janitors like De La Cruz.

These workers also risk infection and death but receive far fewer accolades.

In the United States, many are immigrants from Latin America, a population already hard-hit by the pandemic.

Since the outbreak began, the only time De La Cruz took more than the occasional day off was in July, when she herself was infected with the virus.

After a month-long recovery, she returned to disinfecting the coronavirus-contaminated areas of the hospital.

She keeps a vase filled with fresh flowers in her home, where she prays for the health of her family and for an end to the pandemic.

“I’m proud to serve the sick and this country,” said De La Cruz, who has lived in the United States for three decades.

Her neighbors sometimes stop to thank her, she said.

“‘You’re so brave,’ they tell me,” she said.

'The country needs me:' cleaner in Chicago's COVID wards proud to fight pandemic | Reuters

Lithuania swears in most gender-balanced cabinet in eastern EU



By Andrius Sytas


VILNIUS (Reuters) - Lithuania’s new centre-right government assumed office on Friday, led by Prime Minister Ingrida Simonyte who has appointed the most gender-balanced cabinet in the eastern European Union.

Simonyte, the only woman currently serving as prime minister in the bloc’s eastern states, named seven women and eight men as ministers.

Bulgaria is the eastern EU state with the next highest proportion of women in its cabinet, with seven women among its 19 ministers. Poland has the worst gender parity record, with only one woman in its cabinet of 20.

Both junior partners of Simonyte’s coalition, which won the October general election, are led by young female politicians, and nine ministers in the cabinet are in their 30s.

“When you know what you need, it’s easy”, Simonyte told reporters after taking the oath, in reference to the gender balance in her cabinet, a first for Lithuania.

Lithuania became the second-worst hit country by coronavirus in the European Union, behind Luxemburg, on the day Simonyte took office, and she went directly from the oath to a meeting to discuss additional measures to curb the spread of the virus.

Simonyte, 46, was the finance minister during the 2009-2010 crisis, when she oversaw cutting retirees pensions to avoid currency devaluation. In 2019, the self-professed Metallica fan made an unsuccessful bid for the presidency.

For a period lasting several months in 2019, the Lithuanian government included no women at all, with the then prime minister, Saulius Skvernelis, saying that personal “qualities, competence and professionalism” were more important than gender parity.

“We love women and we nurture them towards equality”, he said in 2019.

Elsewhere in the European Union, Belgium, France and Spain have same number of men as women in their cabinets, while Austria, Finland and Sweden have a female majority.

Simonyte will join premiers of Denmark, Finland and Germany as the only female heads of the government in the bloc.

Bird flu spreads to 10th Japanese prefecture
By Aaron Sheldrick, Yuka Obayashi


TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan’s worst bird flu outbreak on record spread to new farms and now affects more than 20% of the country’s 47 prefectures, with officials ordering cullings after more poultry deaths.



FILE PHOTO: Officials in protective suits work at a chicken farm where an outbreak of a highly pathogenic bird flu was confirmed in Mitoyo, western Japan, in this photo taken by Kyodo November 5, 2020. Picture taken November 5, 2020. Mandatory credit Kyodo/via REUTERS

About 11,000 birds will be slaughtered and buried after avian influenza was discovered at an egg farm in Higashiomi city in Shiga prefecture in southwestern Japan, the agriculture ministry said over the weekend.

Another outbreak started in Kagawa prefecture, where the outbreak emerged last month, the ministry said on Monday.

The outbreak in Japan and neighbouring South Korea is one of two separate highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) epidemics hitting poultry around the world, according the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).

Both the strain circulating in Asia and the one in Europe originated in wild birds, it said.

“The virus found in Japan is genetically very close to the recent Korean viruses and thus related to viruses in Europe from early 2020, not those currently circulating in Europe,” Madhur Dhingra, a senior animal health officer at the FAO, told Reuters by email.

“This means that we currently have two distinct H5N8 HPAI epidemics in eastern Asia and Europe,” she said.

The FAO has issued an alert to African health authorities for heightened surveillance of farms to avoid the spread of the more recent European strain there.

In Japan, 10 of the country’s 47 prefectures have been affected in the outbreak, with around 3 million birds culled to date, a record number.

All farms in Japan were earlier ordered to disinfect facilities and check hygiene regimes, and ensure that nets to keep out wild birds are installed properly, agriculture ministry officials told Reuters this week.

Japan has suspended poultry imports from seven countries, including Germany.

Japan has an egg-laying flock of about 185 million hens and a broiler population of 138 million head, according to the ministry of agriculture.

(Graphic: Japan's birdflu outbreak by prefecture - )

 Robots drive Hyundai from humdrum to high tech



By Katrina Hamlin



A boy in a stroller reacts to Boston Dynamics' four-legged robot Spot during its demonstration at Tokyo Robot Collection, Japan September 18, 2020.

HONG KONG (Reuters Breakingviews) - Hyundai Motor Group has gained a new high-tech best friend. The South Korean conglomerate and its chairman will take control of Boston Dynamics, the venture famed for Spot the robotic dog and other eerily lifelike designs. The technology complements Hyundai’s diversification drive, and seller SoftBank will keep a stake. That endorses Chairman Euisun Chung’s ambitious vision to transform his staid autos-to-steel conglomerate.

Friday’s deal will value the robotics pioneer, which Google’s parent Alphabet offloaded to Masayoshi Son’s acquisitive group just three years ago, at $1.1 billion. Financial terms were not disclosed, but SoftBank freely admits that animatronic canines going for $74,500 each aren’t a cash cow yet. Filings show the unit, which is loss-making overall, made just 50 billion yen ($481 million) in pre-tax profit on over 5 trillion yen of sales in the 12 months to March, implying a razor-thin 1% margin. To compare, Japanese-listed peer Fanuc, known for giant robotic arms used in factories, reported a pre-tax profit margin of nearly 20% over the same period.




SoftBank will hang on to a one-fifth stake, suggesting Son sees potential in the new owners. Spot, made available for commercial sales in June, can be equipped with accessories such as sensors for surveillance and logistics in dangerous environments. The likes of BP, Merck and Ford Motor have already put the biopeds to use. A partnership with Hyundai will offer new opportunities. The automaker, better known for its Hyundai and Kia family cars, has already developed wearable robotics to support manual labourers and the physically disabled, and is working on flying cars too. More know-how could improve existing designs and add new facets.

Hyundai scion Chung will need to navigate carefully. Commercial applications for robotics are still developing, and will require high upfront investments. Regulations are uncertain too, especially concerning technology that has military applications – as Boston Dynamics designs do.

Even so, Chung is moving in the right direction. He has promised to cut the conglomerate’s reliance on traditional car-making, and wants robotics and air mobility to account for half of its total top line in the future. Spot the dog could prove the right companion down the line.

John le Carre, author of 'Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy', dies aged 89


By Guy Faulconbridge

LONDON (Reuters) - “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” author John le Carre, who cast flawed spies on to the bleak chessboard of Cold War rivalry, has died aged 89.

FILE PHOTO: Author David Cornwell, also known by the pen name John Le Carre, receives Olof Palme Prize at a ceremony in the Grunewaldsalen concert hall in Stockholm, Sweden January 30, 2020. Claudio Bresciani/TT News Agency/via REUTERS

David Cornwell, known to the world as John le Carre, died after a short illness in Cornwall, southwestern England, on Saturday evening, said Jonny Geller, CEO of The Curtis Brown Group.

Le Carre is survived by his wife, Jane, and four sons. The family said in a brief statement he died of pneumonia.

“This terrible year has claimed a literary giant and a humanitarian spirit,” author Stephen King said of his death.

By exploring treachery at the heart of British intelligence in spy novels, le Carre challenged Western assumptions about the Cold War by defining for millions the moral ambiguities of the battle between the Soviet Union and the West.

Unlike the glamour of Ian Fleming’s unquestioning James Bond, le Carre’s heroes were trapped in the wilderness of mirrors inside British intelligence which was reeling from the betrayal of Kim Philby who fled to Moscow in 1963.

“It’s not a shooting war anymore, George. That’s the trouble,” Connie Sachs, British intelligence’s resident alcoholic expert on Soviet spies, tells spy catcher George Smiley in the 1979 novel “Smiley’s People”.

“It’s grey. Half angels fighting half devils. No one knows where the lines are,” Sachs says in the final novel of Le Carre’s Karla trilogy.

Such a bleak portrayal of the Cold War shaped popular Western perceptions of the rivalry between the Soviet Union and the United States that dominated the second half of the 20th century until the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991.

The Cold War, for le Carre, was “A Looking Glass War” (the name of his 1965 novel) with no heroes and where morals were up for sale - or betrayal - by spy masters in Moscow, Berlin, Washington and London.

Betrayal of family, lovers, ideology and country run through le Carre’s novels which use the deceit of spies as a way to tell the story of nations, particularly Britain’s sentimental failure to see its own post-imperial decline.

Such was his influence that le Carre was credited by the Oxford English Dictionary with introducing espionage terms such as “mole”, “honey pot” and “pavement artist” to popular English usage.

British spies were angry that le Carre portrayed the MI6 Secret Intelligence Service as incompetent, ruthless and corrupt. But they still read his novels.

Other fans included Cold War warriors such as former U.S. President George H. W. Bush and former British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher.

SOLDIER, SPY

David John Moore Cornwell was born on Oct. 19, 1931 in Dorset, England, to Ronnie and Olive, though his mother, despairing at the infidelities and financial impropriety of her husband, abandoned the family when he was five years old.

Mother and son would meet again decades later though the boy who became le Carre said he endured “16 hugless years” in the charge of his father, a flamboyant businessman who served time in jail.

At the age of 17, Cornwell left Sherborne School in 1948 to study German in Bern, Switzerland, where he came to the attention of British spies.

After a spell in the British Army, he studied German at Oxford, where he informed on left-wing students for Britain’s MI5 domestic intelligence service.

Le Carre was awarded a first-class degree before teaching languages at Eton College, Britain’s most exclusive school. He also worked at MI5 in London before moving in 1960 to the Secret Intelligence Service, known as MI6.

Posted to Bonn, then capital of West Germany, Cornwell fought on one of the toughest fronts of Cold War espionage: 1960s Berlin.

As the Berlin Wall went up, le Carre wrote “The Spy Who Came in from the Cold,” where a British spy is sacrificed for an ex-Nazi turned Communist who is a British mole.


“What the hell do you think spies are?,” asks Alex Leamas, the British spy who is finally shot on the Berlin Wall.

“They’re just a bunch of seedy, squalid bastards like me: little men, drunkards, queers, hen-pecked husbands, civil servants playing cowboys and Indians to brighten their rotten little lives.”

By casting British spies as every bit as ruthless as their Communist foes, le Carre defined the dislocation of the Cold War that left broken humans in the wake of distant superpowers.

‘MOSCOW RULES’

Now rich, but with a failing marriage and far too famous to be a spy, le Carre devoted himself to writing and the greatest betrayal in British intelligence history gave him material for a masterpiece.

The discovery, which began in the 1950s with the defection of Guy Burgess and Donald Maclean, that the Soviets had run spies recruited at Cambridge to penetrate British intelligence hammered confidence in the once legendary services.

Le Carre wove the story of betrayal into the Karla trilogy, beginning with the 1974 novel “Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy” and ending with “Smiley’s People” (1979).


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George Smiley seeks to track down a Soviet mole at the top of Britain’s secret service and battles with Soviet spy master Karla, ultimate master of the mole who is sleeping with Smiley’s wife.

Smiley, betrayed in love by his aristocratic wife Ann (also the name of Cornwell’s first wife), traps the traitor. Karla, compromised by an attempt to save his schizophrenic daughter, defects to the West in the last book.
ABSOLUTE FRIENDS?

After the Soviet Union collapsed, leaving Russia’s once mighty spies impoverished, le Carre turned his focus to what he perceived as the corruption of the U.S.-dominated world order.

From corrupt pharmaceutical companies, Palestinian fighters and Russian oligarchs to lying U.S. agents and, of course, perfidious British spies, le Carre painted a depressing - and at times polemical - view of the chaos of the post-Cold War world.

“The new American realism, which is nothing other than gross corporate power cloaked in demagogy, means one thing only: that America will put America first in everything,” he wrote in the foreword to “The Tailor of Panama”.

He opposed the 2003 U.S.-led invasion of Iraq and his anger at the United States was evident in his later novels, which sold well and were turned into popular films but did not match the mastery of his Cold War bestsellers.

But in a life of espionage how much was true?

“I am a liar,” le Carre was quoted as saying by his biographer Adam Sisman. “Born to lying, bred to it, trained to it by an industry that lies for a living, practised in it as a novelist.”


Additional reporting by Kanishka Singh in Bengalur

Tanzania farmers distrust fertilizer quality, are less willing to pay for it

UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS COLLEGE OF AGRICULTURAL, CONSUMER AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Research News

 

IMAGE: UNIVERSITY OF ILLINOIS RESEARCHERS EXAMINED FERTILIZER USE IN TANZANIA. view more 

CREDIT: ANNA FAIRBAIRN.

URBANA, Ill. - Smallholder farmers in Sub-Saharan Africa use fertilizer well below recommended rates, contributing to consistently low agricultural productivity. Farmers in Tanzania and Kenya, for example, apply just 13 kilograms of fertilizer per hectare, compared with 165 to 175 kilograms in India and Brazil. Low use directly affects cereal yields, which average 1.2 to 1.7 metric tons per hectare, compared to 4 to 4.5 metric tons in South America and Asia.

A new study from the University of Illinois finds farmers have misconceptions about fertilizer quality and suggests those misconceptions are a major reason for low application rates.

"Farmers were not using much fertilizer; that's well established in the region of Tanzania where we were working. In discussions with farmers we heard again and again the explanation was they thought the fertilizer was fake or bad, and they didn't want to buy it," says Hope Michelson, associate professor in the Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics (ACE) at U of I.

"I'd heard this in other, similar locations where I'd worked with farmers," Michelson says. "We decided to focus on this question of quality: Is the fertilizer bad?"

Michelson and her colleagues conducted a case study in Tanzania to gain more insight into fertilizer quality and farmers' beliefs and willingness to buy it.

Anna Fairbairn, then-graduate student in ACE and co-author on the study, spent a year collecting data throughout Tanzania's Morogoro Region.

Fairbairn first conducted a census to identify all shops in the region selling fertilizer. She drove with her team along primary and secondary roads for weeks, stopping at any shop that looked like it might sell fertilizer. They interviewed all dealers about their practices and prices. Then, "mystery shoppers" posing as farmers purchased more than 600 fertilizer samples from 225 dealers, recording prices and other details about the transactions. The samples went to laboratories in Kenya and the U.S. for analysis.

The researchers included three types of fertilizer that are important for ag production in Tanzania - urea, calcium ammonium nitrate (CAN), and diammonium phosphate (DAP). The lab results showed just a small percentage of samples were marginally out of compliance with industry standards. They did not indicate widespread evidence of the fraud and quality problems that farmers worried about. These results are consistent with findings from numerous academic studies and from international organizations like the International Fertilizer Development Center conducted in recent years.

"It makes sense that the quality is good. Urea fertilizer is difficult to adulterate, and it is one of the cheapest fertilizers. You would have to dilute it with something even cheaper, and there are not very many options. So it is not likely to happen," Michelson notes.

After the quality analysis, Fairbairn and her assistants interviewed 165 farmers in 12 villages across the region. They set up a "store," where they showed farmers samples of urea - the most prevalent fertilizer for small farmers - and asked how much they would be willing to pay for them.

"We found evidence that farmers worry about the quality of the fertilizer in the marketplace, and that impacts their willingness to pay for it. This can affect the amount of fertilizer they're buying, and whether or not they purchase fertilizer at all," Michelson states.

After the farmers' initial responses, the researcher would tell them that the fertilizer had been lab tested and shown to have adequate nutrition content. This information increased the farmers' willingness to pay by about 50%.

Michelson says there may be several explanations for the farmers' distrust in fertilizer quality.

"These farmers are operating in contexts with weak regulatory systems and may be broadly suspicious. It is interesting and significant to find evidence that farmers' beliefs are not converging to the truth - of good quality fertilizer in the marketplace - over time," she states.

Michelson says farmer distrust could be exacerbated by the difficulty in observing the effect of fertilizer on crop yields.

"You could be applying at the wrong time, or not applying enough. Weather is also a factor driving crop yields. You can't always tell if the fertilizer is doing anything because of the rainfall variability factor. Farmers could blame these things on the fertilizer not being good quality," she says.

An important factor that may influence the beliefs the researchers identified is the appearance of the fertilizer. "We find evidence there is an enormous problem with fertilizer in the marketplace that looks bad. It may be dirty or have clumps, sticks, and small amounts of impurities in it," Michelson notes. "More than 30% of the samples we purchased had this sort of problem."

Wholesalers import urea through the port of Dar es Salaam, where it gets bagged and transported into the country. Inadequate storage facilities and transportation resources can result in a compromised appearance that has no bearing on quality and effectiveness.

The research confirmed that farmers were willing to pay less for fertilizer with this poor physical appearance.

For smallholder farmers, purchasing fertilizer is a substantial expense, amounting to about 10% of annual per capita income in the household. It's a non-trivial investment that comes with a measure of risk. And they are not willing to make that investment if they do not believe it will be worth the cost, Michelson notes.

The researchers conclude misconceptions about fertilizer quality could severely hamper crop productivity in developing countries, and additional research can help further explore those correlations and the persistence of these misconceptions in the marketplace.

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The Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics is in the College of Agricultural, Consumer and Environmental Sciences, University of Illinois.

The article, "Misperceived Quality: Fertilizer in Tanzania," is published in Journal of Development Economics. [DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2020.102579]

Authors include Hope Michelson, Anna Fairbairn, Brenna Ellison, Annemie Maertens, and Victor Manyong.

Funding for the research was provided by University of Illinois Office of International Programs, University of Illinois Campus Research Board Research Support Program, University of Illinois Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, University of Illinois College of ACES AYRE Research and Learning Graduate Fellowship, a Private Enterprise Development in Low-Income Countries (PEDL) grant, and a United States Borlaug Graduate Research Grant.

Research reveals unexpected insights into early dinosaur's brain, eating habits and agility

UNIVERSITY OF BRISTOL

Research News

 

IMAGE: BRAINCASE AND ENDOCAST OF THECODONTOSAURUS ANTIQUUS. FROM CT SCANS OF THE BRAINCASE FOSSIL, 3-D MODELS OF THE BRAINCASE AND THE ENDOCAST WERE GENERATED AND STUDIED. view more 

CREDIT: CREATED BY ANTONIO BALLELL WITH BIORENDER.COM, THECODONTOSAURUS SILHOUETTE FROM PHYLOPIC.ORG.

A pioneering reconstruction of the brain belonging to one of the earliest dinosaurs to roam the Earth has shed new light on its possible diet and ability to move fast.

Research, led by the University of Bristol, used advanced imaging and 3-D modelling techniques to digitally rebuild the brain of Thecodontosaurus, better known as the Bristol dinosaur due to its origins in the UK city. The palaeontologists found Thecodontosaurus may have eaten meat, unlike its giant long-necked later relatives including Diplodocus and Brontosaurus, which only fed on plants.

Antonio Ballell, lead author of the study published today in Zoological Journal of the Linnean Society, said: "Our analysis of Thecodontosaurus' brain uncovered many fascinating features, some of which were quite surprising. Whereas its later relatives moved around ponderously on all fours, our findings suggest this species may have walked on two legs and been occasionally carnivorous."

Thecodontosaurus lived in the late Triassic age some 205 million years ago and was the size of a large dog. Although its fossils were discovered in the 1800s, many of which are carefully preserved at the University of Bristol, scientists have only very recently been able to deploy imaging software to extract new information without destroying them. 3-D models were generated from CT scans by digitally extracting the bone from the rock, identifying anatomical details about its brain and inner ear previously unseen in the fossil.

"Even though the actual brain is long gone, the software allows us to recreate brain and inner ear shape via the dimensions of the cavities left behind. The braincase of Thecodontosaurus is beautifully preserved so we compared it to other dinosaurs, identifying common features and some that are specific to Thecodontosaurus," Antonio said. "Its brain cast even showed the detail of the floccular lobes, located at the back of the brain, which are important for balance. Their large size indicate it was bipedal. This structure is also associated with the control of balance and eye and neck movements, suggesting Thecodontosaurus was relatively agile and could keep a stable gaze while moving fast."

Although Thecodontosaurus is known for being relatively small and agile, its diet has been debated.

Antonio, a PhD student at the University of Bristol's School of Earth Sciences, said: "Our analysis showed parts of the brain associated with keeping the head stable and eyes and gaze steady during movement were well-developed. This could also mean Thecodontosaurus could occasionally catch prey, although its tooth morphology suggests plants were the main component of its diet. It's possible it adopted omnivorous habits."

The researchers were also able to reconstruct the inner ears, allowing them estimate how well it could hear compared to other dinosaurs. Its hearing frequency was relatively high, pointing towards some sort of social complexity - an ability to recognise varied squeaks and honks from different animals.

Professor Mike Benton, study co-author, said: "It's great to see how new technologies are allowing us to find out even more about how this little dinosaur lived more than 200 million years ago.

"We began working on Thecodontosaurus in 1990, and it is the emblem of the Bristol Dinosaur Project, an educational outreach scheme where students go to speak about science in local schools. We're very fortunate to have so many well-preserved fossils of such an important dinosaur here in Bristol. This has helped us understand many aspects of the biology of Thecodontosaurus, but there are still many questions about this species yet to be explored."

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This research was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), the Leverhulme Trust and the Royal Society.