Monday, January 11, 2021

 

Coming January 25th (January's fourth Monday)

Confronting the current deep Environmental crisis
 
David Schwartzman will map out a path to a just green recovery, to a Global Green New Deal and an eco-socialist transition leaving fossil capitalism in prehistory where it richly deserves to be. 
 
David W. Schwartzman, Professor Emeritus, Howard University

(Washington DC, USA), holds a PhD in Geochemistry from Brown University, USA. In 1999 (updated paperback, 2002) he published, Life, Temperature and the Earth (Columbia University) and has several recent papers in Capitalism Nature Socialism (CNS). David serves on the Editorial Board of Science & Society and the Advisory Boards of  CNS Advisory Board and the Institute for Policy Research & Development. He is an active member of the DC Statehood Green Party/Green Party of the United States, CCDS, DSA as well as several other community organizations, especially since his retirement from Howard University in 2012. His book, co-authored with his son Peter, recently was published The Earth is Not for Sale: A Path Out of Fossil Capitalism to the Other World That is Still Possible. World Scientific: Singapore. 

Latest book is The Global Solar Commons, the Future That is Still Possible: A Guide for 21st Century (Free download at: https://www.theearthisnotforsale.org/solarcommons.pdf; More readable for activists than our deeply documented more technical The Earth is Not for Sale; Donations of any amount welcome suggested to the Green Eco-Socialist Network, https://eco-socialism.org/join-contribute/; Review: https://washingtonsocialist.mdcdsa.org/ws-articles/20-11-global-commons-solar-energy)
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Researchers in Turkey Unearthed a 2,500-year-old Temple Dedicated to Aphrodite


Turkish archaeologists unearthed what they believe to be a 2,500-year-old temple of Aphrodite, the Greek goddess of love and beauty, in the Urla-Cesme peninsula of western Turkey. According to The Greek Reporter, pieces of the temple, located outside the city of Izmir, were first discovered in 2016 while archaeologists were working on a search of the province.
© Provided by Travel + Leisure jokerpro/GETTY Urla, Turkey


"During our screening of the surface, we detected the Aphrodite temple from the sixth century B.C. Aphrodite was a commonly worshiped figure back then. It is a fascinating and impressive discovery," Professor Elif Koparal from Mimar Sinan University shared with the Andalou News Agency. He added, the team found a number of artifacts, including 35 prehistoric settlements. "It is a rural temple. Aphrodite was a very common cult at that time," Koparal said. "The finds that we have indicate that there is the Temple of Aphrodite in this region." Those finds, Koparal further explained, included a piece of a statue of a woman on the floor, as well as a terracotta female head figure, which helped them deduce that it was likely a temple in honor of the goddess.

"As we scanned the epigraphic publications, we understood that it was most likely the Temple of Aphrodite. There is also an inscription around the temple. It sets the border with the statement, 'This is the sacred area,'" Koparal said.

As for how the Greek goddess found herself a temple in Turkey, Ancient Origins explained that Greek settlers likely moved into the area around 8,000 B.C. And, because of the town's "proximity to the sea, the region now occupied by Izmir province would have been seen as an ideal spot to rebuild by Greek ex-patriots, and the discovery of the Temple of Aphrodite from the sixth century BC suggests that fleeing Greeks did indeed settle in this area in significant numbers."

According to the Hurriyet, the researchers also found and documented artifacts that help tell the tale of the people who lived around the temple and in the region dating back to 6,000 B.C. The team found burial mounds as well as caves used as sacred sites. According to Koparal, his team is now working with the local population to ensure they can preserve their findings and protect them against both urban development and the very real threat of treasure hunters who may come to see what they can unearth too.



BLM vs Capitol protests: This was the police response when it was Black protesters on DC streets last year

As hundreds of supporters of President Donald Trump stormed the US Capitol, breaking windows and wreaking havoc, politicians and activists were among the many who drew comparisons between the police response on Wednesday to that of last year's Black Lives Matter protests.
© Martha Raddatz/STR/Latin America News Agency/Reuters National Guard troops were deployed to the Lincoln Memorial on June 2, 2020, during protests held in Washington, DC, over the death of George Floyd.

The death of George Floyd -- a Black man who died after a Minneapolis police officer pressed his knee into Floyd's neck -- in May of 2020 prompted hundreds of protests nationwide over the summer. In many cities, including the nation's capitol, police met protesters with tear gas, violence and arrests.

However, Wednesday's protests, many pointed out, were different. The Black Lives Matter Global Network, one of the most well-known organizations fighting for the well-being of Black people, described Wednesday's riots as a "coup."

The group said it was "one more example of the hypocrisy in our country's law enforcement response to protest."

"When Black people protest for our lives, we are all too often met by National Guard troops or police equipped with assault rifles, shields, tear gas and battle helmets," the group said in a statement. "Make no mistake, if the protesters were Black, we would have been tear gassed, battered, and perhaps shot."

Here's a look at the protests from last year, compared to those on Wednesday.

January 6, 2021

Hundreds of pro-Trump protesters on Wednesday stormed the Capitol and filled the steps of the building. In some images, officers could be seen deploying pepper spray. Tear gas was also deployed, but it's not clear whether by protesters or police, and people wiped tears from their eyes while coughing.

June 2, 2020

Members of the DC National Guard, armed and wearing camouflage uniforms, stood on the steps of the Lincoln Memorial last June, as crowds of demonstrators held a peaceful protest following several days of demonstrations.

During Wednesday's events, rioters had already made it inside the building before the DC National Guard was activated.

January 6, 2021

A livestream video of the Wednesday's events appears to show a Capitol Hill police officer taking a selfie with a rioter inside the building. The snippet of livestream posted online is short, so it's unclear what prompted the interaction -- or what followed.CNN has reached out to the Capitol Hill Police for comment regarding the incident.

June 1, 2020

Before Trump made his remarks at the Rose Garden last June, police near the White House released tear gas and fired rubber bullets at protesters in an effort to disperse the crowd for the President's planned visit to the St. John's Episcopal Church.

Earlier in the day, Trump had encouraged the nation's governors to more aggressively target protesters in their states.

After speaking, Trump walked past protesters to the church for a photo-op.

January 6, 2021

Pro-Trump protesters pushed past metal fences and breached the US Capitol building, walking throughout the complex for several hours.

Trump had directed the National Guard to Washington along with "other federal protective services," according to White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany. The entire DC National Guard was activated by the Department of Defense, according to the Pentagon.

June 3, 2020

Last June, protesters in Washington, DC, repeatedly faced tear gas. Many were detained. One protest led to 88 arrests.

By comparison, Metropolitan Police Department Chief Robert Contee said Wednesday evening that police have made 52 arrests -- 26 of which were made on US Capitol grounds.

January 6, 2021

Trump supporters flooded the steps of the Capitol, as Congressional leaders evacuated the complex following a lockdown.

A federal law enforcement official told CNN that DC National Guard did not anticipate being used to protect federal facilities, and the Trump administration had decided earlier this week that would be the task of civilian law enforcement.

© From Twitter Livestream video appears to show a Capitol Hill police officer taking a selfie with a rioter inside the building. The snippet of livestream posted online is short and it's unclear what prompted, or followed, the interaction. CNN has reached out to the Capital Hill Police for comment about the incident.

     Video of Arnold Schwarzenegger Comparing Capitol Mob to Nazis Viewed Over 24 Million Times

An emotional video of former Republican California Governor and Hollywood star Arnold Schwarzenegger strongly condemning the deadly U.S. Capitol riots has garnered more than 24 million views on Twitter.
© Screenshot/Twitter An emotional video of Arnold Schwarzenegger condemning the U.S. Capitol riot has garnered over 23 million views on Twitter.

Christina Zhao 1 day ago

In the nearly eight-minute clip shared on Sunday, Schwarzenegger compared the pro-Trump mob who stormed the Capitol building last Wednesday to the Nazis of the 1930s.

"I grew up in Austria. I am very aware of Kristallnacht, or the Night of Broken Glass," he said "It was a night of rampage against the Jews carried out in 1938 by the Nazi equivalent of the Proud Boys."

"Wednesday was the Day of Broken Glass right here in the United States," Schwarzenegger continued. "The broken glass was in the windows of the United States Capitol. But the mob did not just shatter the windows of the Capitol; they shattered the ideals we took for granted."

Schwarzenegger
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My message to my fellow Americans and friends around the world following this week's attack on the Capitol.
https://twitter.com/i/status/13
49481284874482240
— Arnold (@Schwarzenegger) January 10, 2021

"They did not just break down the doors of the building that housed American democracy. They trampled the very principles on which our country was founded. I grew up in the ruins of a country that suffered the loss of its democracy," he said.

"I was born in 1947, two years after the second World War. Growing up, I was surrounded by broken men drinking away their guilt over their participation in the most evil regime in history. Not all of them were rabid anti-Semites or Nazis, many just went along, step-by-step, down the road."

As of Sunday evening, the video had garnered 24.3 million views, over 870,000 likes, and more than 330,000 retweets.

Schwarzenegger also blamed President Donald Trump for the attack on the Capitol, saying he "sought a coup by misleading people with lies."

"President Trump is a failed leader," he said. "He will go down in history as the worst president ever."

His remarks came days after crowds of Trump supporters flocked to the nation's capital on Wednesday to demand President-elect Joe Biden's election win be overturned. Amid the protests, a violent mob unlawfully barged into the Capitol as lawmakers convened to certify the election results.

The rioters climbed and destroyed barricades surrounding the building and entered the premises, making it as far as the House Chambers. Five people died in the attack, including a police officer.

A slew of public figures quickly praised Schwarzenegger for his powerful statement.

Former CIA Director John Brennan tweeted: "Powerful & poignant. A sobering message that all Americans should applaud."

"I've often found that immigrants better appreciate the greatness of America than many born here. This @Schwarzenegger message proves that again," remarked MSNBC host Joe Scarborough on Twitter.

Newsweek reached out to the Republican National Committee for comment. This story will be updated with any response.
Bill Belichick just can't accept the Medal of Freedom from President Trump

This is the Morning Win, by Andy Nesbitt.
© David Butler II, USA TODAY Sports Bill Belichick talks with quarterback Cam Newton during the Patriots' loss to the Bills.

Bill Belichick isn’t in the playoffs this year but his name still popped up in the news on Sunday when a report from Politico stated that president Donald Trump plans to award the Patriots head coach with the Presidential Medal of Freedom this Thursday.

And here’s the deal – there’s just no humanly possible way that Belichick can accept this honor from the president. Not this week. Not this month. Not from this president who just a few days ago fired up an angry mob that attacked the Capitol in an act of domestic terrorism like we’ve never seen before.

This has nothing to do with politics but rather doing what’s right for our country. President Trump is trying to go about business as usual just days after that attack on the Capitol and it would be wrong for anyone with a spine or any love for our country to play along with that man as his final days in the Oval Office slowly tick away.

Business shouldn’t go on as usual in the White House until at least Jan. 20 when president-elect Joe Biden takes over, or possibly earlier depending if any impeachment hearings actually move forward.

The day after last week’s attack we saw Trump give out two Medal of Freedom awards to golfers Annika Sorenstam and Gary Player. Our friends at Golfweek correctly labeled that an embarrassment for the game of golf and something that shouldn’t have happened.

We’ve seen other athletes (from Tiger Woods to Babe Ruth) and celebrities receive the honor from Trump over the years, too.

Today, the president is scheduled to hand out two more Medal of Freedom awards to political allies Jim Jordan and Devin Nunes.

It’s clear that this once very highly respected honor is now being handed out like free drink tickets at an open bar and it just shouldn’t be that way – at all.

Belichick, who is a big history buff and grew up in a military family, has to be able to see how poorly it would look for him to accept this honor right now from a man who just days ago turned Americans on Americans in such an awful way. And when I say a military family, the man basically grew up at the Naval Academy and completely immersed himself into the workings of the Navy and how important our military is to our nation.

Video: Colin Powell: Trump should ‘just do what Nixon did and step down’ (TODAY)


Belichick also has to understand how badly this would look to the members of his team, who he has stood up for many times over the years, but especially over the past year. Just a few weeks ago he spoke about the importance of the social justice meetings and work his team has done over the past six months.

You can’t say that and then a few weeks later let Trump put a medal around your neck.

Can’t happen.

Belichick also should look at how the PGA of America voted Sunday night to move the 2022 PGA Championship from one of Trump’s golf courses.

Many people and organizations are rightly stepping back from the president in the days after the attack on the Capitol. This isn’t the time to be going toward him, unless that’s how you want to be remembered.

Accepting this honor from the president would immediately demolish any credibility Belichick has built with his players and would tarnish his image unlike anything he’s ever done while in charge of the Patriots’ organization.

And for those reasons he must say no thank you to Trump. Just like over 81 million people did in the election back in November.

Bill Belichick Rejects Trump's Medal Of Freedom Offer

New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick said he will not accept the Presidential Medal of Freedom, citing the riots at the U.S. Capitol.



President Donald Trump and New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick have been friends for years. (AP Photo/Andrew Harnik)

FOXBOROUGH, MA — New England Patriots coach Bill Belichick said Monday he will not accept the Presidential Medal of Freedom from President Donald Trump, calling the offer flattering but citing American values and last week's U.S. Capitol siege in turning the president down.

"Recently, I was offered to the opportunity to receive the Presidential Medal of Freedom, which I was flattered by out of respect for what the honor represents and admiration for prior recipients," Belichick said in a statement Monday night. "Subsequently, the tragic events of last week occurred and the decision has been made not to move forward with the award. Above all, I am an American citizen with great reverence for our nation's values, freedom and democracy."

Belichick said talking about social justice with members of the Patriots contributed to his decision.

"I know I also represent my family and the New England Patriots team," he continued. "One of the most rewarding things in my professional career took place in 2020 when, through the great leadership within our team, conversations about social justice, equality and human rights moved to the forefront and became actions. Continuing those efforts while remaining true to the people, team and country I love outweigh the benefits of any individual award."

The Presidential Medal of Freedom is the country's highest civilian honor. Belichick was scheduled to receive the award Thursday, even though House Democrats made it clear Trump could be impeached for a second time by then

Belichick, who has shared a long friendship with Trump, was pressured to decline the offer in the aftermath of the deadly riots at the U.S. Capitol last week.

U.S. Rep. Jim McGovern (D-Massachusetts) was among those who said Belichick should turn Trump down.

"I would refuse it if I were Bill Belichick," McGovern told CNN Monday. "This president has made a mockery of the Presidential Medal of Freedom. Look at who he is giving it to in the last weeks, people like Devin Nunez and Jim Jordan ... Bill Belichick should do the right thing and say, 'No thanks.'"

McGovern, who represents much of central Massachusetts in the state's 2nd Congressional District, said he would be disappointed if Belichick accepted the award.

"This president is not fit to be in office," he said. "Anything he would bestow on anybody is meaningless and to accept it is disgraceful."

Massachusetts Attorney General Maura Healey agreed.

"At a time when so many athletes and coaches are standing up for what's right, I hope Bill Belichick will reject this award," she tweeted.

Sen. Ed Markey (D-Massachusetts) also said Belichick should reject the offer, pointing out on Boston Public Radio that Trump could be impeached Thursday.

Belichick hasn't publicly commented on his friendship with Trump in recent years, but he did write a flattering letter to the then-candidate that Trump read at a Manchester, New Hampshire, rally the night before the 2016 presidential election.

Belichick and some players met Trump at the White House after the team beat the Atlanta Falcons in the Super Bowl in 2017. The team didn't travel to the White House after beating the Los Angeles Rams in the Super Bowl in 201


Twitter loses $5 billion in market value after Trump is permanently barred from the platform

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© REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst Twitter stock slumped on Monday after the platform permanently barred President Donald Trump. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst

Twitter's stock price tumbled as much as 12% on Monday, erasing $5 billion from its market capitalization.

The tumble followed the social-media group's permanent suspension of President Donald Trump's account on Friday.

"After close review of recent Tweets from the @realDonaldTrump account and the context around them we have permanently suspended the account due to the risk of further incitement of violence," Twitter said.

Trump, who had about 88 million followers, generated enormous publicity for the platform with his controversial and incendiary tweets over the past six years.
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Twitter stock fell as much as 12% on Monday after the social-media company permanently suspended President Donald Trump's account on Friday evening. The share-price decline wiped $5 billion from Twitter's market capitalization.

Twitter's bosses suspended Trump's account - which had about 88 million followers - after the world leader's fanning of conspiracy theories about voter fraud and election theft spurred thousands of his supporters to lay siege to the Capitol last week.

"After close review of recent Tweets from the @realDonaldTrump account and the context around them we have permanently suspended the account due to the risk of further incitement of violence," Twitter said.

Read more: BANK OF AMERICA: Buy these 10 Dow stocks to take advantage of rich dividends and a long-term strategy primed for a comeback in 2021

The ban followed Facebook's suspension of Trump for at least the rest of his presidency. CEO Mark Zuckerberg defended the decision in a Facebook post on Thursday, arguing that Trump appeared intent on using his account to undermine a peaceful transition of power and risked sparking more violence.

Twitter stock likely fell because investors are worried the Trump ban will erode interest in the platform and lead to boycotts among those who see the decision as politically motivated and a way to silence a major conservative voice.
The enormous advantage that the Electoral College gives Republicans, in one chart
In 2019, a team of economic researchers from the University of Texas released a shocking finding. Republicans, they predicted, would win nearly one in six presidential races where the GOP lost the popular vote by three points. Thus, there was a significant likelihood that Republicans would capture the White House even when a clear majority of the public preferred to elect a Democrat
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© Via Getty This headline was almost a reality in 2020.

As it turns out, this 2019 study wasn’t nearly pessimistic enough about the Democratic Party’s chances of prevailing in the Electoral College.

On Sunday, David Shor, one of the Democratic Party’s leading data analysts, shared a chart showing that the GOP’s advantage in the Electoral College grew significantly between 2016, when Republican Donald Trump became president despite losing the popular vote, and 2020.

The bottom line is that Trump received a four-point boost from the Electoral College in 2020 — or, as Shor puts it, Democrats needed to win 52 percent of the national electorate in order to have an even chance of winning the presidency. (Trump received about a three-point boost from the Electoral College in 2016, when he lost the national popular vote by 2.1 points.)

As recently as 2012, the Electoral College gave a slight advantage to Democrats. As Shor writes, “this big change in bias happened because white voters without a college degree *in large midwestern states* switched their votes en-masse from Obama to Trump in 2016.”

In 2012, President Barack Obama won the national popular vote by just under 4 percentage points. But he overperformed his national margins in midwestern swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Obama won Michigan by nearly 10 points.

In 2020, by contrast, Democratic President-elect Joe Biden defeated Trump by a larger margin than Obama’s victory in 2012 — Biden won the national popular vote by 4.5 percentage points. But Biden also underperformed his national margin in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania. Biden won Wisconsin by less than a full percentage point.

Indeed, while Biden won a commanding victory in the national popular vote — his 4.5 percentage point victory is the second-largest margin in a 21st-century presidential contest — Biden barely eked out a victory in the Electoral College.

Nearly 160 million voters cast a ballot in the 2020 presidential election, but if a total of 43,000 Biden voters had stayed at home in the states of Georgia, Arizona, and Wisconsin, Trump would have won a second term.



Mindfulness can improve mental health and wellbeing -- but unlikely to work for everyone

UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE

Research News

Mindfulness courses can reduce anxiety, depression and stress and increase mental wellbeing within most but not all non-clinical settings, say a team of researchers at the University of Cambridge. They also found that mindfulness may be no better than other practices aimed at improving mental health and wellbeing.

Mindfulness is typically defined as 'the awareness that emerges through paying attention on purpose, in the present moment, and nonjudgmentally to the unfolding of experience moment by moment'. It has become increasingly popular in recent years as a way of increasing wellbeing and reducing stress levels.

In the UK, the National Health Service offers therapies based on mindfulness to help treat mental health issues such as depression and suicidal thoughts. However, the majority of people who practice mindfulness learn their skills in community settings such as universities, workplaces, or private courses. Mindfulness-based programmes are frequently promoted as the go-to universal tool to reduce stress and increase wellbeing, accessible to anyone, anywhere.

Many randomised controlled trials (RCTs) have been conducted around the world to assess whether in-person mindfulness training can improve mental health and wellbeing, but the results are often varied. In a report published today in PLOS Medicine, a team of researchers from the Department of Psychiatry at the University of Cambridge led a systematic review and meta-analysis to examine the published data from the RCTs. This approach allows them to bring together existing - and often contradictory or under-powered - studies to provide more robust conclusions.

The team identified 136 RCTs on mindfulness training for mental health promotion in community settings. These trials included 11,605 participants aged 18 to 73 years from 29 countries, more than three-quarters (77%) of whom were women.

The researchers found that in most community settings, compared with doing nothing, mindfulness reduces anxiety, depression and stress, and increases wellbeing. However, the data suggested that in more than one in 20 trials settings, mindfulness-based programmes may not improve anxiety and depression.

Dr Julieta Galante from the Department of Psychiatry at the University of Cambridge, the report's first author, said: "For the average person and setting, practising mindfulness appears to be better than doing nothing for improving our mental health, particularly when it comes to depression, anxiety and psychological distress - but we shouldn't assume that it works for everyone, everywhere.

"Mindfulness training in the community needs to be implemented with care. Community mindfulness courses should be just one option among others, and the range of effects should be researched as courses are implemented in new settings. The courses that work best may be those aimed at people who are most stressed or in stressful situations, for example health workers, as they appear to see the biggest benefit."

The researchers caution that RCTs in this field tended to be of poor quality, so the combined results may not represent the true effects. For example, many participants stopped attending mindfulness courses and were not asked why, so they are not represented in the results. When the researchers repeated the analyses including only the higher quality studies, mindfulness only showed effects on stress, not on wellbeing, depression or anxiety.

When compared against other 'feel good' practices such as exercise, mindfulness fared neither better nor worse. Professor Peter Jones, also from Cambridge's Department of Psychiatry, and senior author, said: "While mindfulness is often better than taking no action, we found that there may be other effective ways of improving our mental health and wellbeing, such as exercise. In many cases, these may prove to be more suitable alternatives if they are more effective, culturally more acceptable or are more feasible or cost effective to implement. The good news is that there are now more options."

The researchers say that the variability in the success of different mindfulness-based programmes identified among the RCTs may be down to a number of reasons, including how, where and by whom they are implemented as well as at whom they are targeted. The techniques and frameworks taught in mindfulness have rich and diverse backgrounds, from early Buddhist psychology and meditation through to cognitive neuroscience and participatory medicine - the interplay between all of these different factors can be expected to influence how effective a programme is.

The number of online mindfulness courses has increased rapidly, accelerated further by the COVID-19 pandemic. Although this review has not looked at online courses, studies suggest that these may be as effective as their offline counterparts, despite most lacking interactions with teacher and peers.

Dr Galante added: "If the effects of online mindfulness courses vary as widely according to the setting as their offline counterparts, then the lack of human support they offer could cause potential problems. We need more research before we can be confident about their effectiveness and safety."

###

The research was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Applied Research Collaboration East of England and NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre, with additional support from the Cambridgeshire & Peterborough NHS Foundation Trust, Medical Research Council, Wellcome and the Spanish Ministry of Education, Culture and Sport.

Reference

Galante, J et al. Mindfulness-based programmes for mental health promotion in adults in non-clinical settings: A systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. PLOS Medicine; 11 Jan 2021; DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003481

More management measures lead to healthier fish populations

UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON

Research News

IMAGE

IMAGE: A HARBOR IN KODIAK, ALASKA. view more 

CREDIT: CHRIS ANDERSON/UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON

Fish populations tend to do better in places where rigorous fisheries management practices are used, and the more measures employed, the better for fish populations and food production, according to a new paper published Jan. 11 in Nature Sustainability.

The study, led by Michael Melnychuk of the University of Washington's School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, draws upon the expertise of more than two dozen researchers from 17 regions around the world. The research team analyzed the management practices of nearly 300 fish populations to tease out patterns that lead to healthier fisheries across different locations. Their findings confirmed, through extensive data analysis, what many researchers have argued for several years.

"In general, we found that more management attention devoted to fisheries is leading to better outcomes for fish and shellfish populations," Melnychuk said. "While this won't be surprising to some, the novelty of this work was in assembling the data required and then using statistical tools to reveal this pattern across hundreds of marine populations."

The research team used an international database that is the go-to scientific resource on the status of more than 600 individual fish populations They chose to analyze 288 populations that generally are of value economically and represent a diversity of species and regions. They then looked over time at each fish population's management practices and were able to draw these conclusions:

  • In regions of the world where fish and shellfish populations are well studied, overall fisheries management intensity has steadily increased over the past half century
  • As fisheries management measures are implemented, fishing pressure is usually reduced toward sustainable levels, and population abundance usually increases toward healthy targets
  • If fish populations become depleted as a result of overfishing, a rebuilding plan may be implemented. These plans tend to immediately decrease fishing pressure and allow populations to recover
  • If strong fisheries management systems are put in place early enough, then overfishing can be avoided and large, sustainable catches can be harvested annually, rendering emergency measures like rebuilding plans unnecessary


CAPTION

A selection of herring from a recent fishing trip.


The study builds on previous work that found, by using the same database, that nearly half of the fish caught worldwide are from populations that are scientifically monitored and, on average, are increasing in abundance. The new paper takes a closer look at specific management actions and how they have impacted fishing pressure and the abundance of each population examined, Melnychuk explained.

"All fish populations have their own unique contexts that might dictate what management tools would be most helpful and promising to use," he said. "Despite the great diversity in their management objectives and various strategies to meet those, we focused on key management tools in common to many fisheries around the world."

The international research team chose to look at a spectrum of fish populations, such as hakes in South Africa and Europe, orange roughy in New Zealand, tuna species on the high seas, anchovies in South America and scallops off the Atlantic coast of North America. Most of the populations they examined had a history of being depleted at some point, usually due to historical overfishing.

For example, with U.S. mid-Atlantic population of black sea bass, a rebuilding plan instituted in 1996 brought fishing rates down from three times the sustainable level to below this mark, which led to a steady rebuilding of the fishery and full recovery by 2009.

"Fishers targeting black sea bass in the northeastern U.S. are finally reaping the rewards of harvest caps that allowed the population to rebuild," said co-author Olaf Jensen of the University of Wisconsin--Madison. "The 2020 catch limit of more than 6,000 tons is the highest since catch limits were first imposed more than 20 years ago."

This analysis omits fisheries that lack scientific estimates of population status, even though these account for a large amount of the world's catch. These include most of the fish populations in South Asia and Southeast Asia -- fisheries in India, Indonesia and China alone represent 30% to 40% of the world's catch, most of which is essentially unassessed. Although fisheries in these regions could not be included in the analyses, the paper's authors conclude that lessons learned can equally apply to data-limited fisheries: Greater investment in fisheries management systems is expected to lead to better outcomes for the fish populations upon which our fisheries are based.

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A full list of paper co-authors is available in the paper. This research was funded by The Nature Conservancy, The Wildlife Conservation Society, the Walton Family Foundation and a consortium of Seattle fishing companies.

For more information, contact Melnychuk at mmel@uw.edu.

CAPTION

Trap gear used during fishing.

CREDIT

Michael Melnychuk/University of Washington

Climate change has caused billions of dollars in flood damages

STANFORD UNIVERSITY

Research News

In a new study, Stanford researchers report that intensifying precipitation contributed one-third of the financial costs of flooding in the United States over the past three decades, totaling almost $75 billion of the estimated $199 billion in flood damages from 1988 to 2017.

The research, published Jan. 11 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, helps to resolve a long-standing debate about the role of climate change in the rising costs of flooding and provides new insight into the financial costs of global warming overall.

"The fact that extreme precipitation has been increasing and will likely increase in the future is well known, but what effect that has had on financial damages has been uncertain," said lead author Frances Davenport, a PhD student in Earth system science at Stanford's School of Earth, Energy & Environmental Sciences (Stanford Earth). "Our analysis allows us to isolate how much of those changes in precipitation translate to changes in the cost of flooding, both now and in the future."

The global insurance company Munich Re calls flooding "the number-one natural peril in the U.S." However, although flooding is one of the most common, widespread and costly natural hazards, whether climate change has contributed to the rising financial costs of flooding - and if so, how much - has been a topic of debate, including in the most recent climate change assessments from the U.S. government and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

At the crux of that debate is the question of whether or not the increasing trend in the cost of flooding in the U.S. has been driven primarily by socioeconomic factors like population growth, housing development and increasing property values. Most previous research has focused either on very detailed case studies (for example, of individual disasters or long-term changes in individual states) or on correlations between precipitation and flood damages for the U.S. overall.

In an effort to close this gap, the researchers started with higher resolution climate and socioeconomic data. They then applied advanced methods from economics to quantify the relationship between historical precipitation variations and historical flooding costs, along with methods from statistics and climate science to evaluate the impact of changes in precipitation on total flooding costs. Together, these analyses revealed that climate change has contributed substantially to the growing cost of flooding in the U.S., and that exceeding the levels of global warming agreed upon in the United Nations Paris Agreement is very likely to lead to greater intensification of the kinds of extreme precipitation events that have been most costly and devastating in recent decades.

"Previous studies have analyzed pieces of this puzzle, but this is the first study to combine rigorous economic analysis of the historical relationships between climate and flooding costs with really careful extreme event analyses in both historical observations and global climate models, across the whole United States," said senior author and climate scientist Noah Diffenbaugh, the Kara J. Foundation Professor at Stanford Earth.

"By bringing all those pieces together, this framework provides a novel quantification not only of how much historical changes in precipitation have contributed to the costs of flooding, but also how greenhouse gases influence the kinds of precipitation events that cause the most damaging flooding events," Diffenbaugh added.

The researchers liken isolating the role of changing precipitation to other questions of cause and effect, such as determining how much an increase in minimum wage will affect local employment, or how many wins an individual player contributes to the overall success of a basketball team. In this case, the research team started by developing an economic model based on observed precipitation and monthly reports of flood damage, controlling for other factors that might affect flooding costs like increases in home values. They then calculated the change in extreme precipitation in each state over the study period. Finally, they used the model to calculate what the economic damages would have been if those changes in extreme precipitation had not occurred.

"This counterfactual analysis is similar to computing how many games the Los Angeles Lakers would have won, with and without the addition of LeBron James, holding all other players constant," said study co-author and economist Marshall Burke, an associate professor of Earth system science.

Applying this framework, the research team found that - when totaled across all the individual states - changes in precipitation accounted for 36 percent of the actual flooding costs that occurred in the U.S. from 1988 to 2017. The effect of changing precipitation was primarily driven by increases in extreme precipitation, which have been responsible for the largest share of flooding costs historically.

"What we find is that, even in states where the long-term mean precipitation hasn't changed, in most cases the wettest events have intensified, increasing the financial damages relative to what would have occurred without the changes in precipitation," said Davenport, who received a Stanford Interdisciplinary Graduate Fellowship in 2020.

The researchers emphasize that, by providing a new quantification of the scale of the financial costs of climate change, their findings have implications beyond flooding in the U.S.

"Accurately and comprehensively tallying the past and future costs of climate change is key to making good policy decisions," said Burke. "This work shows that past climate change has already cost the U.S. economy billions of dollars, just due to flood damages alone."

The authors envision their approach being applied to different natural hazards, to climate impacts in different sectors of the economy and to other regions of the globe to help understand the costs and benefits of climate adaptation and mitigation actions.

"That these results are as robust and definitive as they are really advances our understanding of the role of historical precipitation changes in the financial costs of flooding," Diffenbaugh said. "But, more broadly, the framework that we developed provides an objective basis for estimating what it will cost to adapt to continued climate change and the economic value of avoiding higher levels of global warming in the future."

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Diffenbaugh is also the Kimmelman Family Senior Fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment and an affiliate of the Precourt Institute for Energy. Burke is also deputy director of the Center on Food Security and the Environment and a fellow at the Stanford Woods Institute, the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.