A stronger maths foundation in first grade

IMAGE: AT SCHOOL REOPENINGS DUE TO THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC, TEACHERS NEED A WAY OF QUICKLY ASSESSING FIRST GRADERS FOR RETAINED MATH KNOWLEDGE. HERE REFILWE NTSOANE, HEAD OF DEPARTMENT FOUNDATION PHASE, IS... view more 

CREDIT: JAN POTGIETER, UNIVERSITY OF JOHANNESBURG

UNIVERSITY OF JOHANNESBURG

Research News

    SHARE

 PRINT  E-MAIL

• First grade teachers can find out who is on track with math and who is lagging, using an accurate diagnostic test that they can administer in the classroom.
• After Covid-19 school reopening, or during catch-up sessions in the holidays, this is instrument can also be useful, especially in large, multilingual classrooms.
• The test is supplemented by a 15-week 1-hour-a week "maths boost" invention program for first graders.
• The program provides teachers good instructional material to support children in an efficient way.
• Uniquely, the test measures numeracy skills along with listening comprehension and executive functions, pinpointing additional reasons why students improve after intervention.

Six-year-olds can't really talk to adults about the problems they may experience with mathematics. It is hard for teachers to know for certain who is keeping up and who is lagging, says Prof Elizabeth Henning from the University of Johannesburg.

The teacher could be facing 45 or even 60 little faces in the classroom, she says.

Some children may appear to cope after a few weeks' school holiday or closures due to Covid-19. But early childhood teachers need to understand what children remember and what may have been forgotten. School reopening is a good time to find out where everyone is with math and reading, she continues.

Henning is a South Africa Research Chair of the country's National Research Foundation.

"When kids come to school, even for first grade, you don't know what they already know. At home they may have learned to recite number words and use them as if to state 'how many', but that does not mean that they understand number yet," says Henning.

"They see their care-givers bake and cook and clean. Some children are sent to the shops before they can read. They learn some maths at home - but every home is different," she says.

Many kids learn this basic math in their home languages.

"Then they come to elementary school and 'parallel track' if this school teaches through medium of English. They start learning the same concepts in a new language, which in South Africa is mostly English.

"When the first grade teacher doesn't know the home languages of the young learners, they can't translate or code switch when they see the kids struggling," says Henning.

Prof Henning is one of the researchers in the study who adapted a Finnish evidence-based test for first graders in South Africa.

In South Africa many kids learn in English at school, but most speak a variety of African languages at home.

The test itself is not unique, but measuring numeracy and other relevant control measures in school-based intervention is, says Prof Pirjo Aunio. Aunio is from the Department of Education at the University of Helsinki.

She is corresponding author of the study, and one of the lead designers of the original Finnish test and the 15-week 1-hour-a week maths boost programme for first graders. The study has been published in the Early Childhood Research Quarterly.

"The most important result in our study was that the intervention group, those children who had extra practice in early numeracy skills with the 15-week program, had a bigger and sustained increase in their numerical relational skills, compared to children who followed business as usual instruction," continues Aunio.

"The effect was not a result of better language or executive functions skills, nor kindergarten attendance, but because of our intervention program," she says.

"What made me extremely happy is that this program's materials are cheap and easy to use. So the program is potentially very useful on a large scale as well," says Aunio.

The study provides an unusual follow-up view of first graders' progress in basic numeracy, says Henning.

"We found out how reliable the test is because we tested the first graders at the beginning of their school year, again after the 15-week maths boost program and again a few months after they completed the maths boost. Children learning in English as a second language are especially responsive to the test," she says.

"Many kids get lost to mathematics and science in middle school. But it doesn't have to be that way," says Henning.

"Far more students can arrive at middle school with the foundation needed to graduate from high school with good math scores", she says. That means more students can go onto college for technical, business and engineering careers.

The foundation starts in first grade, when the teacher digs deep to find out what is at the bottom of the kids' math knowledge, so that she can teach with different individuals' math competence in mind. One way of doing so is to test the kids at the beginning of the school year with a reliable test, such as the one in the study.

Says Henning: "We like this test and 15-week intervention program because they are easy to use and they work. With a sturdy foundation in first grade, teachers in other grades can build on it in a systematic progression. But if the early building blocks are missing, it is very hard to catch upon maths lost early on."

###

PHOTOS: High resolution and web size photos in 16x9 aspect ratio suitable for video, available for download from Google Drive at

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1-ZnM4b4LA8LR1i_4uf4Ib79r9eS0SlCj?usp=sharing

Photo captions and credits in a separate file in the folder.

INTERVIEWS: For email interviews or questions, contact Prof Elizabeth Henning at ehenning@uj.ac.za and Prof Pirjo Aunio at pirjo.aunio@helsinki.fi

For radio/TV interviews via mobile phone / Skype / Zoom with Prof Henning, contact Ms Therese van Wyk at Theresevw@uj.ac.za or +27 71 139 8407 (mobile) in Johannesburg, UTC + 2

EXTENDED VERSION OF RELEASE: A longer version of the release with more discussion from Prof Henning and Prof Pirjo is available for download at

https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/1-ZnM4b4LA8LR1i_4uf4Ib79r9eS0SlCj?usp=sharing

 

Playing with thin dolls may affect young girls' body image

DURHAM UNIVERSITY

Research News

    SHARE

 PRINT  E-MAIL

Playing with ultra-thin dolls could make young girls want a thinner body, according to new research published today (11 March 2021).

The small-scale study, led by Durham University in the UK, shows that ultra-thin dolls may negatively affect body image in girls as young as five years old.

The researchers warn that the dolls, combined with exposure to 'thin ideals' in films, on TV and social media, could lead to body dissatisfaction in young girls, which has been shown to be a factor in the development of eating disorders.

In the research, thirty girls aged between 5-9 years old played with an ultra-thin doll, a realistic childlike doll or a car. Before and after each play session, the girls were asked about their perceived own body size and ideal body size via an interactive computer test using pictures.

Playing with the ultra-thin dolls reduced girls' ideal body size in the immediate aftermath of play. There was no improvement even when they subsequently played with the childlike dolls or cars afterwards, showing that the effects cannot be immediately counteracted with other toys. The realistic children's dolls were relatively neutral for girls' body ideals.

The study, published in the academic journal Body Image, was conducted by researchers from Durham University, Newcastle University and Northumbria University.

Lead author Professor Lynda Boothroyd, from Durham University's Department of Psychology, said: "Body dissatisfaction is a huge problem, particularly amongst young girls. It can have serious consequences for girls' wellbeing and lead to eating disorders and depression.

"The results from our study indicate that playing with ultra-thin dolls, which are sold in the millions each year, could have a real negative impact on girls' body image. This is on top of all the images of unrealistic body sizes they see on TV, in films and on social media. This is something that needs to be addressed in order to reduce the pressure on girls and women to aspire to a 'thin ideal body'."

In previous research, the psychologists found that the more TV we watch the more we prefer thinner female bodies.

80 per cent of the girls who took part in the study had access to ultra-thin dolls at home or with their friends and almost all of them also watched Disney and related films, which also tend to portray very thin female bodies.

Dr Elizabeth Evans, from Newcastle University's School of Psychology, said: "This study isn't intended to make parents feel guilty about what's in their child's toy box, and it certainly isn't trying to suggest that ultra-thin dolls are 'bad'.

"What our study provides is useful information that parents can take into account when making decisions about toys. Ultra-thin dolls are part of a bigger picture of body pressures that young children experience, and awareness of these pressures is really important to help support and encourage positive body image in our children."

In the study, the girls played with the dolls in pairs and before and after their play session, they were asked about their perceived actual body size, ideal body size and ideal adult body size. The children were asked to change the body size in a picture of a girl to what they thought they looked like themselves, what they would like to look like and what they thought a beautiful woman looks like.

Although the samples were not large, this research unusually tested the children before and after doll play which means it can show actual change within individual children. As such, it contributes to a growing number of studies which demonstrate that doll play may affect the beauty ideals that young girls internalise.

Professor Martin Tovee, from Northumbria University's Department of Psychology, said: "Our study shows how perception of ideal body size and shape is moulded from our earliest years to expect unrealistic ideals. This creates an inevitable body image dissatisfaction which is already known to lead towards disordered eating."

Current widely available dolls tend to have ultra-thin bodies with a projected body mass index between 10 and 16 which is classed as underweight. Realistic childlike dolls used in the study resembled healthy 7 and 9-year old children.

The research was conducted independently from doll manufacturers.

Peer-reviewed - experimental study

Covid-19 risk increases with airborne pollen

Increased pollen concentrations correlate with higher SARS-CoV-2 infection rates

TECHNICAL UNIVERSITY OF MUNICH (TUM)

Research News

 

In the spring of 2020, the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic appeared to coincide with the tree pollen season in the northern hemisphere. These observations prompted an international team of researchers to conduct an extensive investigation: The scientists wanted to know whether there is a demonstrable link between airborne pollen concentrations and SARS-CoV-2 infection rates.

Pollen is a significant environmental factor influencing infection rates

Under the leadership of first author Athanasios Damialis, the team at the Chair of Environmental Medicine at TUM collected data on airborne pollen concentrations, weather conditions and SARS-CoV-2 infections - taking into consideration the variation of infection rates from one day to another and the total number of positive tests. In their calculations, the team also included data on population density and the effects of lockdown measures. The 154 researchers analyzed pollen data from 130 stations in 31 countries on five continents.

The team showed that airborne pollen can account for, on average, 44 percent of the variation in infection rates, with humidity and air temperature also playing a role in some cases. During intervals without lockdown regulations, infection rates were on average 4 percent higher with every increase of 100 grains of airborne pollen per cubic meter. In some German cities, concentrations of up to 500 pollen grains per cubic meter per day were recorded during the study - which led to an overall increase in infection rates of more than 20 percent. In regions where lockdown rules were in effect, however, the infection numbers were on average only half as high at comparable pollen concentrations.

Airborne pollen weakens immune response

High pollen concentrations lead to a weaker immune response in airways to viruses that can cause coughs and colds. When a virus enters the body, infected cells usually send out messenger proteins. This is also the case with SARS-CoV-2. These proteins, known as antiviral interferons, signal nearby cells to escalate their antiviral defenses to keep the invaders at bay. Additionally, an appropriate inflammation response is activated to fight the viruses.

But if airborne pollen concentrations are high, and pollen grains are inhaled with the virus particles, fewer antiviral interferons are generated. The beneficial inflammatory response itself is also affected. Therefore, on days with a high concentration of pollen, it can lead to an increase in the number of respiratory illnesses. This also holds true for Covid-19. Whether individuals are allergic to the different pollen types is irrelevant.

"You cannot avoid exposure to airborne pollen," says Stefanie Gilles who is also first author of the study. "People in high-risk groups should, therefore, be informed that high levels of airborne pollen concentrations lead to an increased susceptibility to viral respiratory tract infections." Athanasios Damialis emphasizes: "When studying the spread of SARS-CoV-2, environmental factors such as pollen must be taken into account. Increased awareness of these effects are an important step in preventing and mitigating the impact of Covid-19."

Particle filtering masks provide protection

What can vulnerable people do to protect themselves? Claudia Traidl-Hoffmann, last author and a professor of environmental medicine, advises people at high-risk to monitor pollen forecasts over the coming months. Claudia Traidl-Hoffmann states: "Wearing a particle filtering mask when pollen concentrations are high can keep both the virus and pollen out of the airways."

###

Further information:

Claudia Traidl-Hoffmann is Professor of Environmental Medicine and has for many years conducted research for many years with her team as part of the UNIKA-T research network at TUM. She is Head of the Chair of Environmental Medicine which has recently been transferred to the Medical Faculty of Augsburg University. She is also Director of the Institute of Environmental Medicine at Helmholtz Zentrum München and Director of the University Outpatient Clinic for Environmental Medicine at Augsburg University Hospital. She additionally teaches at the Institute for Food & Health (ZIEL) at TUM, as well as in other institutions.

Wild relatives offer a solution to devastating chickpea disease Ascochyta blight

AMERICAN PHYTOPATHOLOGICAL SOCIETY

Research News 

IMAGE: ASCOCHYTA BLIGHT STEM AND LEAF LESIONS view more 

CREDIT: LARS KAMPHUIS

A staple for many, chickpeas are a rich source of vitamins, minerals, and fiber and offer many health benefits, such as improving digestion and reducing the risk of ailments including heart disease and cancer. However, chickpeas possess a rather narrow genetic diversity and are susceptible to Ascochyta blight, a devastating disease that can cause a yield loss of up to 100 percent. In Australia alone, this disease costs an average of $4.8 million annually.

To help curtail the impact of Ascochyta blight, plant pathologists in Western Australia have turned to wild relatives of the chickpea: Cicer reticulatum and Cicer echinospermum and found that these plants have a natural resistance to the disease. This is the first report of Ascochyta blight resistance in a novel wild Cicer collection.

"Identifying such sources of resistance is a very exciting finding for the chickpea industry and can offer growers better genetic control of the disease," explained Lars Kamphuis, one of the scientists involved with the study. "These sources of resistance can be utilized in chickpea breeding programs around the world to improve their resistance to this pathogen."

Kamphuis and his colleagues used a germplasm collection that has also been a valuable source of resistance to other diseases and pests such as root lesion nematodes and pod-borer. Using the disease scores for Ascochyta blight and genotypic information of the germplasm, they were also able to identify Ascochyta blight-associated regions in the wild Cicer genome.

"Collaborators in Australia are evaluating this resource for sources of resistance to Phytophthora root rot, acid soil, and chilling tolerance," said Kamphuis. "This novel wild Cicer germplasm is thus being mined for novel sources of biotic and abiotic stress resistance and will help improve the genetic diversity within chickpea breeding programs."

###

For more information about this study read "Identification of Novel Sources of Resistance to Ascochyta Blight in a Collection of Wild Cicer Accessions" published in the February issue of Phytopathology. To hear more about how Australian researcher are utilizing the wild Cicer resource to improve chickpeas listen to the podcast in the following link (https://grdc.com.au/news-and-media/audio/podcast/better-chickpeas-a-wild-idea).

Disclaimer: AAAS and EurekAlert! are not responsible for the accuracy of news releases posted to EurekAlert! by contributing institutions or for the use of any information through the EurekAlert system.

Research shows that BSers are more likely to fall for BS

People who frequently mislead others are less able to distinguish fact from fiction, according to University of Waterloo researchers

UNIVERSITY OF WATERLOO

Research News

 

People who frequently try to impress or persuade others with misleading exaggerations and distortions are themselves more likely to be fooled by impressive-sounding misinformation, new research from the University of Waterloo shows.

The researchers found that people who frequently engage in "persuasive bullshitting" were actually quite poor at identifying it. Specifically, they had trouble distinguishing intentionally profound or scientifically accurate fact from impressive but meaningless fiction. Importantly, these frequent BSers are also much more likely to fall for fake news headlines.

"It probably seems intuitive to believe that you can't bullshit a bullshitter, but our research suggests that this isn't actually the case," says Shane Littrell, lead author of the paper and cognitive psychology PhD candidate at Waterloo. "In fact, it appears that the biggest purveyors of persuasive bullshit are ironically some of the ones most likely to fall for it."

The researchers define "bullshit" as information designed to impress, persuade, or otherwise mislead people that is often constructed without concern for the truth. They also identify two types of bullshitting-- persuasive and evasive. "Persuasive" uses misleading exaggerations and embellishments to impress, persuade, or fit in with others, while 'evasive' involves giving irrelevant, evasive responses in situations where frankness might result in hurt feelings or reputational harm.

In a series of studies conducted with over 800 participants from the US and Canada, the researchers examined the relations between participants' self-reported engagement in both types of BSing and their ratings of how profound, truthful, or accurate they found pseudo-profound and pseudo-scientific statements and fake news headlines. Participants also completed measures of cognitive ability, metacognitive insight, intellectual overconfidence, and reflective thinking.

"We found that the more frequently someone engages in persuasive bullshitting, the more likely they are to be duped by various types of misleading information regardless of their cognitive ability, engagement in reflective thinking, or metacognitive skills," Littrell said. "Persuasive BSers seem to mistake superficial profoundness for actual profoundness. So, if something simply sounds profound, truthful, or accurate to them that means it really is. But evasive bullshitters were much better at making this distinction."

The research may help shed light on the processes underlying the spread of some types of misinformation, which could have important implications for the fight against this growing problem.

###

The study, You can't bullshit a bullshitter (or can you?): Bullshitting frequency predicts receptivity to various types of misleading information, authored by Littrell and Waterloo's Faculty of Arts professors Evan Risko and Jonathan Fugelsang, appears in the British Journal of Social Psychology.

Biomolecular analysis of medieval parchment 'birthing girdle'

UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE

Research News

 

IMAGE: MEDIEVAL ENGLISH BIRTH SCROLL. MS.632 (C. 1500), WELLCOME COLLECTION. THE GIRDLE CONTAINS PRAYERS AND INVOCATIONS FOR SAFE DELIVERY IN CHILDBIRTH. BIOMOLECULAR EVIDENCE SUPPORTS ITS ACTIVE USE. view more 

CREDIT: IMAGE COURTESY OF WELLCOME COLLECTION.

Childbearing in medieval Europe was a highly perilous time with considerable risks for both mother and baby.

Difficulties occurring during childbirth or through postpartum infection, uterine prolapse or other complications caused a high death-toll for women.

The Pre-Reformation Church in England offered numerous talismans or relics to pregnant women hopeful for a safe delivery; the most oft-recited of these items loaned out by monasteries to their parishioners is a birthing girdle.

Birthing girdles were made from different materials (including silk, paper and parchment) but many were destroyed after the reformation with few surviving today.

Although records indicate the use of these girdles and other remedies, there is very little surviving first-hand evidence from medieval women themselves about either the treatment or the complications of their own bodies during childbirth.

A team of researchers led by Dr Sarah Fiddyment of the McDonald Institute for Archaeological Research at the University of Cambridge have published results of their biomolecular analyses of one such medieval parchment birthing girdle - MC.632 (c. 1500) Wellcome Collection.

Dr Fiddyment says: "Although these birth girdles are thought to have been used during pregnancy and childbirth (as the name indicates) there has been no direct evidence that they were actually worn. Many contain prayers for general protection of the individual, but this particular girdle also contains very specific prayers to protect women in childbirth and references various saints also related to women and childbirth.

"This girdle is especially interesting as it has visual evidence of having been used and worn, as some of the images and writing have been worn away through use and it has many stains and blemishes."

Fiddyment continues: "We do not know how the girdles were worn, but there are suggestions due to the dimension of the object (long and narrow), that they were physically worn like a chastity belt or girdle, to help support the pregnant women both physically and spiritually.

"We used protein analysis to see if we could detect what proteins might be on these stains or on the girdle in general. We have been able to detect a large number of human proteins matching cervico-vaginal fluid which would indicate active use of the girdle in pregnancy/childbirth.

"In addition, we detected numerous non-human proteins including honey, milk and plants which have all been documented in medieval texts as treatments relating to pregnancy and childbirth, reinforcing our evidence of active use of this particular birth girdle."

All of these ingredients have been documented in medieval medical treatises as being used to treat women during pregnancy and labour.

Fiddyment adds: "The fact that we have been able to detect these specific additional non-human proteins further reinforces the evidence that this girdle was actively used in late pregnancy and childbirth, and also gives supporting evidence that these documented treatments were actually used."

This study is the first to report proteomic analysis of a historic parchment document using non-invasive sampling technique (eZooms) developed previously for species identification of parchment.

Commenting on the methods used, senior author Prof Matthew Collins also of the McDonald Institute said: "Non-invasive samples were taken from the surface of the parchment in both stained and unstained areas using PVC erasers, a method Sarah Fiddyment stumbled upon when working in the conservation studio. This work further highlights the role of proteomics within the new field of biocodicology."

###

The study is published in Royal Society Open Science.

CAPTION

Details taken from MS. 632. a) MS. 632: the dripping side-wound. b) MS. 632: rubbed away green cross or crucifix. c) MS. 632: Tau cross with red heart and shield.

CREDIT

Images courtesy of Wellcome Collection

USAGE RESTRICTIONS

#ABOLISHPRISONS

Study: Prisoners with mental illness much more likely to be placed in solitary confinement

CRIME AND JUSTICE RESEARCH ALLIANCE

Research News 

Past studies on whether incarcerated people with mental illness are more likely to be placed in solitary confinement have yielded mixed results. A new study examined the issue in one state's prisons, taking into account factors related to incarcerated men and the facilities where they were imprisoned. It found that having a mental illness was associated with a significant increase in the likelihood of being placed in extended solitary confinement.

The study, by researchers at Florida State University (FSU), appears in Justice Quarterly, a publication of the Academy of Criminal Justice Sciences.

"Our findings provide new information on how mental illness shapes experiences for incarcerated men, and more broadly, on how the criminal justice system responds to people with mental illness," explains Sonja Siennick, professor of criminology and criminal justice at FSU, who led the study. "The bottom line is that incarcerated people with mental illness appear to garner differential responses from the prison system."

Solitary confinement--placing incarcerated people in isolation cells for 22 to 24 hours a day--is controversial. While some argue that it helps with safety, others suggest it is unethical and poses psychological risks, especially for prisoners with mental illness. This study focused on extended periods of solitary confinement that last for months.

Researchers studied 155,018 men who entered prisons in a large state on or after July 1, 2007, and were released on or before December 31, 2015. The men were assessed within 60 days of their arrival to determine if they met criteria for psychiatric diagnosis. More than 15,000 of the men were diagnosed with a mental health condition. These men were matched with a control group of the same size--men who had equivalent personal characteristics and were housed in similar facilities but who were not diagnosed with a mental health condition.

The study used propensity score matching, a technique that estimates the effect of an intervention, to assess whether the incarcerated men with mental illness were more likely to be placed in extended solitary confinement than the similar incarcerated men without mental illness. Researchers considered characteristics of both the individual prisoners and the facilities in which they were incarcerated. For the men, these included prior arrests and convictions, recidivism, victimization in prison, age, race/ethnicity, education, alcohol and drug use, family and romantic relationships, and other demographics. For the facilities, these included distance from the incarcerated man's home and information related to the inmate population (e.g., average age, race/ethnicity, percentage in solitary confinement, percentage receiving mental health care) as well as the correctional staff.

The study found that one percent of all of the men were placed in extended solitary confinement after 60 days. It also found that prisoners with mental illness were up to 170 percent more likely to be placed for extended periods of time in solitary, depending on their diagnosis. This increased risk is higher than identified by previous research. The higher risk was present for a variety of mental health disorders (including bipolar disorder, major depression, schizophrenia, psychotic antisocial personality disorder, and other personality disorders, but not disorders related to anxiety, impulse control, and post-traumatic stress), and only partially explained by prison misconduct, the authors note.

Incarcerated men placed in solitary confinement were separated from the general population for months; placed alone in a cell for 23 hours a day; and restricted from using the telephone, having visitors, and receiving other privileges. Reasons for placements included safety concerns, problems with institutional adjustment, and possessing or trafficking contraband such as weapons and drugs.

Among the study's limitations, according to the authors, are that differences in how men and women are housed in the facilities studied prevented a complete examination of women; however, the researchers note that the main results for women were substantively similar to those for men. In addition, because most prisoners in the state serve sentences of less than three years, the study's findings may not generalize to people who are incarcerated for longer periods.

Also, the study examined state prisons and not jails, so the association of mental illness with solitary confinement could differ between these settings. Finally, because a new edition of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders was published midway through the study and included changes to criteria for mental illness, men admitted later in the study could have been diagnosed differently than men admitted earlier.

"Our results suggest that the association between mental illness and solitary confinement is not simply a matter of more violent behavior by this population," says Mayra Picon, a doctoral student in criminology and criminal justice at FSU, who coauthored the study. "Rather, incarcerated men with mental illness may have more difficulty adjusting to prison and its rules, resulting in more punitive responses by prison staff.

"Treatment, officer training, and related initiatives may help offset negative consequences for incarcerated people with mental illness, but first, we must develop a better understanding of the intersection of mental illness and corrections," she added.

###

The research was supported by the National Institute of Justice.

Breaking waves and moisture transport drive extreme precipitation events

EUROPEAN GEOSCIENCES UNION

Research News

 

IMAGE: DESPITE BEING LOCATED IN ONE OF THE DRIEST REGIONS OF THE WORLD--THE ATACAMA DESERT IN NORTHERN CHILE--THE USUALLY DRY COPIAPÓ RIVER HAS FLOODED SEVERAL TIMES DURING THE 19TH AND 20TH... view more 

CREDIT: MANU ABAD VIA IMAGGEO

MUNICH -- Around the world each year, extreme precipitation events cause catastrophic flooding that results in tragic loss of life and costly damage to infrastructure and property. However, a variety of different weather systems can cause these extreme events, so a detailed understanding of the atmospheric processes that lead to their formation is crucial.

Now, for the first time, a global analysis reveals that two intertwined atmospheric processes drive the formation of many large-scale extreme precipitation events around the world, particularly in dry subtropical regions where they can inflict catastrophic flooding, as occurred in March 2015 in the Atacama Desert.

Previous research on extreme precipitation events has mostly focused on wet regions, where cyclones are typically responsible for these events, whereas dry subtropical regions have been less studied. However, it is precisely these dry subtropical regions, including deserts, "where these mysterious events are least expected, but can cause devastating impacts," says Andries-Jan de Vries, an atmospheric scientist at ETH Zürich and the Max Planck Institute for Chemistry in Mainz, Germany, who authored the new study.

The results, published in the European Geosciences Union (EGU) journal Weather and Climate Dynamics, improve our understanding of atmospheric processes and weather systems that lead to extreme precipitation events. This, in turn, could help improve forecasts, perhaps leading to the development of early warning systems that could save lives.

The results could also improve our understanding of how these extreme events will respond to climate change. The intensity and frequency of these heavy rainfall events have been increasing in recent decades, and the trend is projected to continue under global warming.

Breaking Waves and Moisture Transports

This study highlights the role of two atmospheric processes in the formation of extreme precipitation events: the breaking of Rossby waves and intense moisture transport.

Rossby waves, also called planetary waves because they arise due to Earth's rotation, are waves occurring in the ocean and atmosphere that were first discovered in the 1930s by Carl Rossby. In the atmosphere, Rossby waves determine to a large extent the weather in midlatitude regions. Due to nonlinear processes, Rossby waves can amplify and eventually break (similar to ocean waves moving onshore).

Intense moisture transport refers to large masses of water vapor moving horizontally in the atmosphere. The process has been linked to extreme precipitation and flooding, often along the western coasts of continents. When the moisture transport appears in an elongate-shaped structure reaching lengths of several thousand kilometers, it is better known as an "atmospheric river."

"When Rossby waves amplify and break, cold-air masses intrude from high latitudes into lower latitudes, and vice versa," De Vries says. "This atmospheric process can drive intense moisture transport, destabilize the troposphere, and force air masses to ascend, which together favor the formation of extreme precipitation."

One key finding of the study is that the severity of the extreme precipitation is strongly influenced by the characteristics of the two atmospheric processes. "The stronger the wave breaking and the more intense the moisture transport, the larger the precipitation volumes," De Vries says.

Extreme Precipitation and Catastrophic Flooding

De Vries analyzed daily extreme precipitation events occurring around the world between 1979 and 2018. The analysis focused on larger-scale events and did not consider very local short-duration heavy rainfall, which are typically caused by single thunderstorms.

He found that Rossby wave breaking can explain more than 90 percent of extreme precipitation events over central North America and the Mediterranean. Over coastal zones, however, more than 95 percent of the extreme precipitation events were driven by intense moisture transport, which is consistent with the findings of previous studies on atmospheric rivers.

One of the most interesting findings was the discovery of locations where the two processes combined drive the extreme events. "Importantly, the combined occurrence of these two atmospheric processes can explain up to 70 percent of extreme precipitation events in regions where one would expect them the least--the dry subtropics," De Vries says. "Breaking waves that reach from the midlatitudes unusually far towards the equator can draw moisture from the humid tropics into the dry subtropics, which feeds the heavy rainfall.

The study further demonstrated that the combined processes played a key role in 12 historic extreme precipitation events that resulted in catastrophic flooding, thousands of fatalities and injuries, billions of dollars in damage, and sustained socioeconomic impacts lasting well beyond the flooding event. These floods included the Natal, South Africa, floods of September 1987; the Alpine floods in October 2000; the Uttarakhand, India, floods in June 2013; the Colorado floods of September 2013; and the Atacama Desert floods in March 2015

CAPTION

A car deposited by floodwaters in Lefthand Creek, north of Boulder, Colorado in September 2013.

CREDIT

Terri Cook via Imaggeo

CAPTION

An animation showing the Rossby wave breaking and intense moisture transport that led to severe flooding in the Atacama in 2015

CREDIT

Andries-Jan de Vries

Tropical cyclone exposure linked to rise in hospitalizations from many causes for older adults

Hurricane-force winds doubled respiratory disease hospitalizations the day after exposure

COLUMBIA UNIVERSITY'S MAILMAN SCHOOL OF PUBLIC HEALTH

Research News

 

An increase in overall hospitalizations was reported for older adults in the week following exposure to a tropical cyclone, according to a new study by researchers at Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University's Earth Institute and colleagues at Colorado State University and Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health.

The researchers used data over 16 years on 70 million Medicare hospitalizations for those 65 years and older and a comprehensive database of county-level local winds associated with tropical cyclones to examine how tropical cyclone wind exposures affect hospitalizations from 13 mutually exclusive, clinically meaningful causes, along with over 100 sub-causes. This study is the first comprehensive investigation of the impact of hurricanes and other tropical cyclones on all major causes and sub-causes of hospitalizations. The findings are published in Nature Communications.

Over 16,000 additional hospitalizations were associated with tropical cyclones over a ten-year average exposure. Analyses showed a 14 percent average rise in respiratory diseases in the week after exposure. The day after tropical cyclones with hurricane-force winds respiratory disease hospitalizations doubled. Also reported was an average 4 percent rise in infectious and parasitic diseases and 9 percent uptick in injuries. Hospitalizations from chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) surged 45 percent the week following tropical cyclone exposure compared to weeks without exposure.

This rise in hospitalizations was driven primarily by increases in emergency hospitalizations. The researchers point out that there may have been cases where exposure to the cyclones prevented normal medical care, compelling people to go to the hospital to access services that they might otherwise get outside a hospital setting without the storm. For example, if those with respiratory issues experienced loss of power--often a result from tropical cyclone winds--they may have turned to hospitals if they needed power for medical equipment that a hospital could furnish.

However, for certain causes, such as certain cancers, the authors also reported decreases in hospitalizations. These decreases were driven by non-emergency hospitalizations, indicating that people possibly cancelled scheduled hospitalizations because of the storm, which may have longer-term impacts on health.

"We know that hurricanes and other tropical cyclones have devastating effects on society, particularly on the poorest and most vulnerable" said Robbie M. Parks, PhD, Earth Institute post-doctoral fellow at the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health and first author. "But until now only limited previous studies have calculated their impacts on health outcomes. Current weather trends also indicate that we can expect tropical cyclone exposure to remain a danger to human health and wellbeing, and could cause devastation to many more communities, now and into the future. There is no doubt that extreme weather events, such as tropical cyclones, are a great threat to human health in the U.S. and many other places in the world--now and with climate change in the future. Our study is a major first step in understanding how tropical cyclone exposure impacts many different adverse health outcomes."

The researchers anticipate that adequate forecasting of tropical cyclones might help, for example, in the planning of setting up shelters to provide electricity and common medications and creating easy ways for vulnerable people with certain chronic conditions to find and use those resources outside of the hospital.

One of the main impediments for research in this field has been the difficulty in readily accessing data for exposure assessment. This research was greatly facilitated by the work of G. Brooke Anderson, PhD, associate professor at Colorado State University, who curated an open-source dataset to easily assess exposure to tropical cyclones for epidemiologic studies. The authors coupled the exposure data with comprehensive hospitalization data among Medicare enrollees. "The development of environmental health data research platforms that provide a one-point access to data, like the one we used for this study, can be a very powerful tool allowing research in directions that were not possible before," said Francesca Dominici, PhD, professor of biostatistics at the Harvard Chan School and co-author.

"While serious gaps in knowledge remain, we gained valuable insights into the timing of hospitalizations relative to exposure and how cause-specific hospitalizations can be impacted by tropical cyclones," said Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou, ScD, assistant professor of environmental health sciences at Columbia Mailman School, and senior author. "These important discoveries will be key for preparedness planning, including hospital and physician preparedness. Our study is just a first step in this process."

###

Authors include: Robbie Parks, The Earth Institute, Columbia University; G. Brooke Anderson, Colorado State University; Rachel Nethery, Harvard Chan School of Public Health; Ana Navas-Acien, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health; Francesca Dominici, Harvard Chan School of Public Health; and Marianthi-Anna Kioumourtzoglou, Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health.

The study was supported by the National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS), grants R01 ES030616, R01 ES028805, R01 ES028033, R01 MD012769, R01 AG066793, R01 ES029950, R21 ES028472, P30 ES009089, and P42 ES010349.

Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health

Founded in 1922, the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health pursues an agenda of research, education, and service to address the critical and complex public health issues affecting New Yorkers, the nation and the world. The Columbia Mailman School is the seventh largest recipient of NIH grants among schools of public health. Its nearly 300 multi-disciplinary faculty members work in more than 100 countries around the world, addressing such issues as preventing infectious and chronic diseases, environmental health, maternal and child health, health policy, climate change and health, and public health preparedness. It is a leader in public health education with more than 1,300 graduate students from 55 nations pursuing a variety of master's and doctoral degree programs. The Columbia Mailman School is also home to numerous world-renowned research centers, including ICAP and the Center for Infection and Immunity. For more information, please visit http://www.mailman.columbia.edu.