Saturday, March 27, 2021




HUNT FERAL PIGS NOT PREDATORS

The battle to control America’s ‘most destructive’ species: feral pigs
Stephen Robert Miller 


A layer of frost clings to the grass on the morning Tony DeNicola sets out to check his trap. It’s late January in South Carolina. The sun is rising, the fog is lifting, and the frogs are croaking from somewhere in the dark loblolly pines. In a whisper, DeNicola explains what will happen.

© Photograph by GEORGE SHIRAS, Nat Geo Image Collection 07/01/1913 St. Vincent Island, Florida, USA. Two wild boars trigger a camera to flash by pulling a baited string.

“I wait for them to tire themselves out and then start tipping them over,” he says, shifting a loaded rifle from his shoulder and cautiously approaching a clearing in the forest beside a small cattle ranch.

DeNicola is a Yale-educated ecologist with the build of a wrestler, the jawline of a G.I. Joe, and a talent for making destructive species disappear. Most of the time, he runs a small nonprofit that does the dirty work of curtailing overabundant wildlife in national parks and quiet East Coast neighborhoods. But he came south from Connecticut to tackle America’s most destructive and seemingly unsolvable wildlife problem: the invasive feral hog.

© Photograph by Sully Sullivan tktk

Over centuries, this adaptable, omnivorous creature has rooted its way from Florida to Kansas, inundated Texas and California, and recently has been banging for entry at the northern border of Montana. Today, there are between six and nine million hogs running wild across at least 42 states and three territories. The exact number is difficult to pin down, and the estimated cost of the damage they cause—probably about $2.5 billion annually, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture—is likely an underestimate.
© photograph by Sully Sullivan Removing carcasses after a large capture to be donated to local families ( Mike Waters and Jamie Owens)

In their relentless march across the country, pigs plow through crops, tear up roads and infrastructure, spread disease, and elbow native species out of fragile marshes, riversides, grasslands, and forests. Many researchers consider them the most destructive invasive species on the planet. Stacked against other invasive species, DeNicola says, “Hogs are like a neutron bomb compared to a conventional bomb.”

Landowners, sport hunters, and wildlife managers have deployed all manner of technology and weaponry to keep feral hogs from wreaking havoc. Despite grenade launchers and airborne assault rifles, remote-controlled snares, and illegal poisons, the pig has persisted.

© photograph by Sully Sullivan Joe Walker from Columbia, SC. and Tony DeNicola assess feral pig damage to a corn field after the harvest was abandoned due to extensive losses. Joe is a landowner and leases his neighbor’s property (where the photo was taken) for hunting access. Hunting leases are very common down south, and serve as a second source of income for many farmers. Joe owns 300+ acres and he leases the neighbor’s 4,000+ acres that surround him. Both properties run along the Congaree River and the Congaree National Park border. The Park is a huge reservoir of feral pigs that greatly impact the neighboring farms.

To DeNicola, their success is proof that the old ways of managing wildlife are out of step with the modern world. A professional who kills with icy efficiency in the name of conservation, he’s caught between animal rights activists who abhor the killing of any animal and recreational hunters who don’t want to lose a favorite quarry.

His trap is a novel design that’s so simple he can't believe it took 20 years for him to invent. “This trap is going to blow everything else away,” he says. “It would cost billions to hire people to manage hogs, but this model will help people manage it themselves.”

As he comes within earshot of the muddy clearing this chilly morning, there are no panicked squeals or agitated grunts. The bait corn is mostly gone, and there are hundreds of hoof prints frozen in the mud, but they belong only to deer.

He’s frustrated, but not flustered. He has spent more time studying hogs—their feeding, mating, social behavior, and the way different-size bullets pass through them—than he’d like to admit. He knows they’ll come.

Pigs in America

No pig or any other member of the swine family, Suidae—which includes warthogs, Russian boar, and domestic pigs—is native to the Western Hemisphere. Those found here today trace their lineage back to a wild boar that likely evolved in Southeast Asia and was imported to the Americas over centuries.

Their arrival on the North American continent involved a who’s who of early colonization. Christopher Columbus stocked the West Indies with domestic pigs to feed his Grand Fleet in 1493. They reproduced so quickly that the Spanish crown ordered their population reduced just 12 years later. In 1539, Hernando de Soto brought more than 300 swine along on his murderous 3,000-mile march around North America. Along the way, his pigs escaped into the countryside and were traded to Native people. Later, colonists raised their hogs free-range, letting them loose on the land to fend for themselves.

In the mid-19th century, millionaire hunting aficionados imported purebred Eurasian wild boar to hunting reserves in New Hampshire, North Carolina, California, and Texas. These large and aggressive pigs were favored, like largemouth bass, for the fight they put up. By the 1980s, many state game departments were stocking hogs to create a public hunting resource. As domestic pigs escaped captivity and interbred with wild animals over the centuries, America’s feral swine developed into the motley bunch we know today.

A COGNITIVE SELF AWARE SPECIES

They have few natural predators and move in familial groups called sounders that range in size from a handful to a few dozen members. Like domestic pigs, they learn quickly, maintain complex social relationships, can choose to resolve conflicts without violence, and seem to understand what they see in a mirror. 

(Related: This species of wild pig knows how to use tools.)

Generally stout and barrel-chested, most weigh less than 300 pounds and are covered in coarse hair. Both males and females grow tusks, which can reach over 19 inches and can loop around to puncture the jaw—if they’re not worn down by rooting.

Rooting is also their most destructive behavior: Pigs drive their snouts and tusks into the ground and, like stubby-legged bulldozers, plow through crops, soil, forest floor, and golf green. They do it in search of grubs or acorns to eat, to cool off on summer days, to communicate, and, as far as scientists can tell, for the sheer joy of it. In the wake of a sounder, a newly planted field can resemble no man’s land on the Eastern Front, gutted in a network of trenches and craters several feet deep.

Damage and destruction

The afternoon after finding his trap empty, DeNicola drives south to the sloping coastal plain of the Low Country to share a prototype with Corrin Bowers, the 37-year-old mayor of Estill, population 3,282. Bowers’ family arrived in what are now the Carolinas about a century after the pigs, and, like his father, he grows peanuts, corn, and cotton on 2,500 acres. He estimates that wild hogs cost him around $10,000 in damages each year.

More than a million acres of South Carolina are tilled for field crops, and while farmers here have long battled drought, flood, and deer, they now find they’re fattening hordes of pigs as well. To slow the animal’s advance, DeNicola aims to put as many of his traps as possible into their hands.

“We don’t get to plant this anymore because hogs will completely devastate this ground,” Bowers says, pointing to a barren field. At one time this 25-acre plot was thick with peanuts, but sitting less than 10 miles from the Savannah River, it’s vulnerable. When the river floods, hogs escape uphill into crops, and when it dries to a trickle, they come to wallow in the puddles left by irrigation.

Ruts caused by their rooting can sink a tractor and destroy expensive equipment, including the long sprayers that irrigate wide fields. “Your sprayer will be riding along, and next thing you know you can’t see it because it’s hit a hole,” Bowers says. New equipment can cost $350,000, and repeated repairs account for most of his annual pig-related expenses.

Wild hogs stick close to river valleys, but South Carolina farmers noticed an uptick in activity on their fields following a government program that boosted peanut production. In response, many have switched to other crops, but the pigs keep coming. “On peanuts they’re terrible. On corn they’re terrible. They won’t nip the tips off of cotton like deer do,” Bowers says, but they’ll plow over rows of four-foot cotton plants in search of the salt in fertilizer.

“We haven’t been able to find a crop that feral swine won’t eat,” says Stephanie Shwiff, a research economist with National Wildlife Research Center.

For many growers who are kept up at night by the grunts of a sounder descending on their property, the physical damage accounts for only part of their exhaustion. “We control everything we can and thank the Lord when we get rain on our dry land,” Bowers says, “but you can only do so much before you’re just deep down to where you can’t even go anymore.”

In South Carolina alone, feral swine inflict some $115 million in damages on agricultural industries, according to a recent Clemson University study. Aside from destroying fields, they can introduce harmful bacteria to water supplies through their feces, chew through the roots of timber seedlings, and have been known to hunt lambs and calves.

What worries Shwiff most, though, is their potential to transmit diseases like African swine fever and rabies to farm animals. If that happens, she says, “the implications for our economy immediately go into the billions of dollars.”


As a conservation ecologist, DeNicola is most concerned with how unsparingly feral swine ravage native wildlife. They prey on fawns and endangered salamanders. They raid the clutches of ground-nesting birds and threatened sea turtles. They outcompete deer and wild turkey for resources and often beat coyotes to the scene of a kill. Wild hogs are linked to the decline of 22 species of plants and four species of amphibians, and research shows that a habitat where they’re present is more than a quarter less biologically diverse than one where they’re not.

This unparalleled toll has earned invasive hogs the moniker “ecological zombies.”
“Porkchoppering,” tracking dogs, and the Pig Brig


In turn, Americans kill pigs at an astonishingly vicious pace. After white-tailed deer, feral pigs are the most popular big game animal in North America, though existing patchy data hardly bear out the true extent. In 2019, South Carolina hunters reported killing 31,508 hogs while pursuing deer. There is no record of the scads of others that were hunted and trapped deliberately.

In many states, wildlife agencies have declared open season: There are no designated hunting periods, no limits to the number of pigs a hunter can shoot, and few restrictions on the means used to kill them.

Wildlife managers depend on recreational hunters to help keep animal populations in balance, and state agencies are funded primarily by hunting taxes and fees. Hunters spend millions on weapons, ammunition, clothing, optics, and permits, as well as travel and hospitality. They set traps and poison bait (illegally), and fire everything from pistols to grenade launchers.

It’s not surprising that pigs have responded by becoming largely nocturnal, and so hunters now also invest in night vision optics and thermal-scoped rifles. In Texas, which harbors some 2.6 million wild hogs—more than any other state—shooting from helicopters has become a popular activity called “porkchoppering.” Hunters pay more than $1,000 for an hour of aerial gunning, then shell out another $100 for a video of the experience.

At his torn-up peanut farm, Bowers walks past the gutted carcasses of two dead hogs, shot last night and left for scavengers. “Almost every farmer has somebody who’s trying to shoot” their pigs, he says. “I have three crews of guys that run dogs. They come once a week, at least.” Using trained dogs to corner wild hogs is one of the most effective ways to ensure a clean—and therefore more humane—shot, but hogs are smart, and hunters who repeat tactics see diminishing returns.

“We were cleaning up out there, taking over a thousand pigs a year off the site using dogs,” recounts research scientist Jack Mayer, who has spent the better part of 30 years looking for a solution to the hog problem at the Savannah River National Laboratory in South Carolina. “I thought this was the answer.” But over time the hogs stopped turning to face the dogs and took to outrunning them instead. “I wonder if we haven’t just created a population of runners that we can’t kill,” he says.

Mayer doubts invasive hogs will ever be wiped from the Southeast; they’re too smart, and hunters simply can’t kill enough of them. To eradicate hogs, their population must drop 60 to 80 percent each year. In a busy year, recreational hunters kill only about 24 percent. Meanwhile, healthy sows can birth three litters of 10 piglets every year.

Images of the violence hunters inflict while trying to keep pace—panicked pigs fleeing airborne gunners, lifeless sounders heaped haphazardly in traps—invariably draw concerns about animal welfare, but not to the extent DeNicola has experienced when managing other more charismatic and less destructive species, like deer.

Dave Pauli, wildlife conflict resolution program manager for the Humane Society of the United States, says lethal control will always be part of the solution, but he notes that “there are very few modern-day examples of ‘killing your way to controlling a wildlife species.’”

Success will require a task-force approach of nonlethal means used in concert with trapping and shooting carried out by trained experts, he says. Over time, state agencies and private landowners “need a cultural shift from ineffective pig hunting revenue to pig control income streams” that view the killing as long-term management, not sport.

Across the country, landowners and wildlife managers have experimented with everything from noisemakers to sturdier fences and sterilization. They tend to be no easier and certainly no cheaper than firearms. Several poisons are in development, and one has been approved by the Environmental Protection Agency. These can kill a pig in anywhere from a few hours to 15 days. So far, though, no state has approved them out of concern that toxins will linger in the ecosystem, harming scavengers and hunters who may unknowingly feed a poisoned pig to their families. 

(Another way to tackle invasive species? Make them into high-end dining.)

With a trap 20 feet in diameter, landowners can round up all the animals in an area so they can be easily and humanely shot. As long as they snare the entire sounder, traps are the most effective option, Mayer says. Hogs left outside become smart to the tactic and unlikely to enter another metal cage. That’s where DeNicola’s design is unique.

The Pig Brig, as he calls it, is a circular corral like most pig traps, but it’s made out of netting instead of heavy metal panels. Rather than relying on an expensive remote-operated trap door that requires a cellular signal, his trap takes advantage of a pig’s natural tendency to root. The animals push under the net, which is draped in an unbroken circle from a ring of rebar posts, then find themselves in a lobster trap. The hem of the net drapes a few feet toward the corral’s center and becomes an impenetrable barrier once boars stand upon it. Importantly—for both the scale of the problem and DeNicola’s intent to put these traps in the hands of multitudes—the Pig Brig is lightweight, simple to set up, and relatively cheap (a basic model costs $1,500).

As DeNicola finishes setting a prototype on Bowers’ land, the farmer, who is no stranger to pig traps, looks it over. “This is pretty ingenious,” he says, and it may be. Still, DeNicola’s trap shares one weakness with every other design on the crowded hog-management market: It requires that someone actually wants to eradicate invasive pigs.

“People hate hogs,” he explains, “but they love their guns and they love having something to shoot.”

A region at odds


The Low Country is sopping, steaming, and teeming with huntable life. Not only white-tailed deer, black bear, and coyote, but also alien armadillo and alligators. Locals are proud of their rebounding wild turkey, but most everyone agrees that, more than any other target, hogs are a hoot to shoot. The chance of bagging the next Hogzilla draws eager sportsmen to hundreds of hunting plantations across the South and funds a simmering culture war between plantation owners and neighboring farmers.

“If you’re a farmer and losing crop, you want to get rid of them. Plantation owners making money off them don’t,” Mayer explains flatly. Farmers with hog problems often point to nearby game resorts as the root of their trouble. Pigs are notorious escape artists, and broken fences are common on 10,000-acre properties. Adding insult to injury, wealthy landowners looking to start or add to a hunting resort can often outbid farmers for cropland real estate.

Acknowledging that the cultural and economic popularity of killing hogs is driving their growth, eight states have banned wild hog hunting. That will never happen in South Carolina, Mayer says. “In the 1990s the state and USDA questioned landowners in the Low Country about cooperating with getting rid of pigs. They got death threats.”

Today, illegally transporting hogs to establish new hunting opportunities is driving expansion beyond the South. In Colorado, wild hogs began appearing for the first time in small pockets of farm country around 2000. Their limited numbers were Colorado’s “saving grace,” says Travis Black, a wildlife manager with Colorado Parks and Wildlife. Small groups are easier to eliminate than large, dug-in populations, and agents immediately set about tracking many of the disparate sounders to shoddy fencing on nearby plantations while intercepting U-Haul trucks packed with smuggled pigs. 

(Feral hogs have also invaded Canada, building ‘pigloos’ as they go.)

The state’s early piecemeal resistance became a larger effort after outbreaks of Porcine Reproductive and Respiratory Syndrome, a highly infectious disease carried by feral swine, hit pig farms in 2005. “That got the attention of the USDA,” Black says.

In 2014, with livestock producers clamoring for help, Congress appropriated $20 million toward the creation of a national feral swine task force. Four years later, it set aside another $75 million in the 2018 Farm Bill to fund pig trapping, monitoring, research, and restoration, and to offer financial assistance to affected farmers in a dozen states. The money has paid for everything from aerial gunning to the development of techniques that detect pig DNA in stream water.

Buoyed by that support, Colorado last February declared itself the first state to eradicate invasive feral hogs. Black says they were fortunate to have had a head start. In South Carolina, where hogs predate statehood by two centuries, wildlife officials say they’ll be happy just to limit the damage.

Like brown trout and Asian ring-necked pheasant, feral swine are foreigners that have rooted into American land and culture, blurring the line between the native and the invasive. Their unmatched destructiveness, however, easily overshadows their finer traits, like their exceptional faculty for survival. “They are truly remarkable creatures,” the economist Shwiff says, noting that few other species can eke out a living in almost every environment and in the face of undaunted hostility.

To DeNicola, the situation is straightforward: People brought them here and now people have to deal with them. He maintains that with discipline and scientific understanding, pigs can be solved. “Human complacency, that’s the ultimate problem,” he says.
At the end

More than a week after DeNicola set his trap and a motion-detecting camera in the muddy clearing, the hogs finally show up. It’s 6:14 in the morning and raining. They scrape at the mud and nibble on the teasing bits of bait spread meagerly around the trap’s edge, but the real prize is at the center: a 50-pound pyramid of golden corn kernels. By 6:50, an entire sounder of 14 pigs is shouldering for a mouthful inside the enclosure, unaware of what’s to come.

DeNicola reaches the clearing just after 9 a.m. By then, the rain has stopped, the sun is rising over the pines, and the hogs are in a frenzy. They throw themselves at the net, biting, gnawing, and tearing with their tusks. Adults clamber over screeching piglets. A 200-pound boar launches itself at the enclosure and springs back onto the others. Some, exhausted, writhe hopelessly in the mud.

DeNicola stands about 10 yards away and waits for them to settle. Then he raises his rifle. Fourteen cracks, and the forest is silent.
Kenney says Alberta 
HE & UCP didn't prep carbon tax
fallback plan, 
was hoping to win in court

EDMONTON — Alberta Premier Jason Kenney says his government didn't prepare a fallback plan on implementing a consumer carbon tax because they were hoping to win in the country's top court.

© Provided by The Canadian Press

Kenney said the province was buoyed by a lower court win in Alberta, and noted that three of the nine Supreme Court justices had concerns with Thursday’s majority decision that the tax is onside with the Constitution. 
LOWER COURT WINS IN ALBERTA CAN YOU SAY OIL BIAS

“It was our hope that we would win,” Kenney told reporters Friday.

“But now we’re going to consult with Albertans on the path forward.”


CONSULTING AFTER THE FACT

Alberta is currently paying a federally imposed levy, which is set to go up to $40 a tonne this year and $50 a tonne next year. It will collect more than $2 billion in annual revenue by 2022.


About 90 per cent of that is rebated to Albertans and the rest is invested in green projec
ts.



Alberta, Saskatchewan and Ontario had challenged the federal tax in court, arguing it was an unconstitutional intrusion on provincial rights to manage their resources.

The high court, in a six-three decision, said climate change is a critical global problem and that Canada cannot effectively fight it by allowing a patchwork of programs or opt-outs.

Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe said Thursday that, in light of the court decision, his government would look at introducing its own carbon tax for fuel, similar to a model used in New Brunswick.

Kenney said Alberta is looking at many options, including the New Brunswick model or perhaps Quebec’s cap-and-trade system.

CAP AND TRADE IS A NON STARTER FOR BIG OIL THEY LIKE THE CARBON TAX SIMPLER NOT SUBJECT TO A BOURSE


"Our key goal will be to minimize the cost of any new policy on Albertans and on our economy as we struggle to recover from the COVID recession," Kenney said Friday.

ITS NOT A COVID RECESSION ITS A SELF MADE KENNEY RECESSION BY GIVING TAX BREAKS TO BIG OIL, BEFORE COVID STRUCK, WHILE CUTTING JOBS THROUGH AUSTERITY BUDGETING

New Brunswick's program sets a per-tonne price on carbon, then reduces the province's gas tax by a similar amount to help neutralize the cost to consumers.

Alberta has had a carbon tax on large greenhouse gas emitters for more than a decade.

Alberta Opposition NDP Leader Rachel Notley said Kenney has wasted precious time by not having an Alberta friendly Plan B ready to go.


Alberta had its own consumer carbon tax under Notley when she was premier.


The NDP tax on gasoline and fossil fuel home heating delivered about $2 billion a year. Much of that money was rebated to low and middle-income families, and the balance funded green initiatives ranging from home renovations to rapid transit.

Kenney cancelled it as the first act of his new United Conservative government in the spring of 2019. He said the tax was expensive, intrusive and ineffectual at combating climate change.

Notley said Albertans have been paying for that decision, contributing since the start of 2020 to a federal backstop plan rather than a made-in-Alberta program that could have delivered a bigger bang for its economy.

Notley said a greener economy and a thriving oil and gas industry are not mutually exclusive, but said leaders have to make it happen.


She said the lack of a Plan B underscores Kenney’s rigidity on adapting to climate change and the modern economy.


"He has been distracted for two years with this particular battle, which many people suggested he was not likely to win," said Notley following the Supreme Court decision.

"He's now saying, 'Oh, I guess starting tomorrow I’m going to have to talk to Albertans about how to do a made-in-Alberta plan that will protect our economy and protect jobs.' That work should have been underway two years ago.

"For this to only start tomorrow is a continuation of the weak and ineffective leadership of this premier."


This report by The Canadian Press was first published March 26, 2021.

Dean Bennett, The Canadian Press


Canada's Teck Resources pleads guilty to Fisheries Act violations

(Reuters) - Canadian miner Teck Resources on Friday pleaded guilty to two charges of violation under the country's Fisheries Act and said will pay a penalty of C$60 million.

Teck Coal, a subsidiary of Teck Resources, resolved the charges relating to 2012 discharges of selenium and calcite to a mine settling pond and Fording River from its steelmaking coal operations in the Elk Valley region of British Columbia.

"We sincerely apologize and take responsibility for the impacts of these discharges," Chief Executive Officer Don Lindsay said.

Lindsay also said the company plans to further invest up to C$655 million over the next four years alone on work to protect the watershed.

Teck said under the direction of the government of British Columbia it developed the Elk Valley Water Quality Plan in 2013, with the goal of stabilizing and reversing the trend of selenium, calcite and other constituents, while improving the health of the watershed. (This story corrects to remove last paragraph containing erroneous reference to earlier charges)

(Reporting by Arundhati Sarkar in Bengaluru; Edi

  

Finding Nemo: New species of peacock spider found in Australia 

Refinery rained oil on Virgin Islands community that still awaits cleanup a month later

Juliet Eilperin, Darryl Fears and Salwan 
WASHINGTON POST
 Mar 25 2021

SALWAN GEORGES/THE WASHINGTON POST
The refinery presents one of the earliest tests of US President Joe Biden's 
vow to clean up pollution in United States' disadvantaged communities.

Two hours after midnight in this island paradise, a cloudy vapour rose from a massive oil refinery and floated over nearby homes as quietly as a ghost.

The fine mist of oil and water from Limetree Bay Refining rained down on the community of Clifton Hill, showering the slick mix onto cars, gardens, rooftops and cisterns filled with rainwater that residents use for daily tasks.

The vapour, caused by a pressure release valve triggered by an accident on February 4 (local time), came three days after the Limetree Bay refinery reopened for the first time in nearly a decade, and the incident prompted the Biden administration to investigate. The Trump administration had approved the reopening of the plant, which had shut down after facing a deluge of lawsuits alleging serious environmental violations.

Three miles from the refinery, Armando Muñoz still sees signs of oil everywhere.

“When it rains it doesn't wash out,” said Muñoz, 59, who lives with his wife and 78-year-old mother-in-law. “It's in all the plants we have, avocado trees, and breadfruit trees, and fruit trees and regular household plants.”

The refinery presents one of the earliest tests of US President Joe Biden's vow to clean up pollution in United States' disadvantaged communities. Ushered back into existence in the waning days of Donald Trump's presidency, Limetree Bay refinery embodies the difficult tradeoffs Biden faces as he tries to deliver on promises to provide a clean, safe environment and well-paying jobs.


SALWAN GEORGES/THE WASHINGTON POST
Armando Munoz stands in his garden in the Clifton Hill neighbourhood 
of St Croix, US Virgin Islands.

This week, Biden officials will withdraw a key permit for the refinery, according to two individuals briefed on the matter who spoke on the condition of anonymity because it had not been announced yet. The Environmental Protection Agency's move will not close the plant but could lead to tighter pollution controls, marking the administration's most significant step yet in a campaign to ensure environmental justice.

Asked about the permit decision Tuesday, the EPA declined to comment.

Many officials in the Virgin Islands support the plant, so any federal action poses significant implications. The pandemic has battered the local tourism industry, leaving the refinery and its adjoining logistics hub as a significant source of revenue worth at least US$8 million (NZ$11 million) a year to the US Virgin Islands government. The two facilities also employ more than 400 full-time workers, virtually all of them territory residents.

“I'm going to be honest with you, the economy in the Virgin Islands, we were dead,” said Herminio Torres, a community organiser in the Clifton Hill neighbourhood.” Retooling the plant brought contractors to the island at a crucial time. “Those workers buy our local food, our local products. The economy has moved forward.”

Company officials said that they are addressing the contamination and that the plant is safe. According to a company report, when water gushed into a drum holding hot coke – an oil byproduct – the reaction triggered a safety valve that relieved the pressure. Refinery flares usually release a mix of water vapour and carbon dioxide: In this case tiny oil droplets entered the air, drifting as far as three miles away.

“Limetree has worked closely with our community and our regulators, investing hundreds of millions of dollars to safely reopen a modernised refinery and create hundreds of high-skilled, well-paying jobs for St Croix residents,” said company spokesman Erica Parsons.

But the incident has revived uncomfortable memories of the days before the refinery – then called Hovensa – shuttered. Residents recall times when the local high school closed because of the plant's intense fumes.

On the island's southern shore between the refinery and Sandy Point National Wildlife Refuge, dozens of oily clumps are once again washing up on the beach, reeking of petrol.

“You can see the impact for miles,” said Olasee Davis, an ecologist and historian who teaches at the University of the Virgin Islands. “When it comes to the refinery, the refinery always gets its way. The politicians here, they don't have the political will. People cannot do without it.”


SALWAN GEORGES/THE WASHINGTON POST
“You can see the impact for miles,” said Olasee Davis, an ecologist and 
historian who teaches at the University of the Virgin Islands.

St Croix – where Biden celebrated New Year's 2019 with his family, and former vice president Mike Pence sought respite days after leaving office – has idyllic stretches of beaches that offer habitat for leatherback sea turtles, roseate terns and other vulnerable wildlife. But it has also been a quasi-petro state for more than half a century.

The territory's governor in the early 1960s, a White businessman named Ralph Paiewonsky, struck a deal with Hess Oil Virgin Islands Corporation to construct a refinery on 1500 acres of the southern shore. On the eve of the deal in 1965, US President Lyndon Johnson dismissed concerns raised by a resident that the trade winds would carry the plant's fumes and waste to the southern shore's “magnificent beaches.”

“As America grows,” Johnson replied, “private industry will work with local officials and interested citizens to assure the preservation of choice spots of natural beauty and avert some of the unfortunate forms of destruction you describe.”


SALWAN GEORGES/THE WASHINGTON POST
Olasee Davis holds a sample of sand covered in oil near the Limetree Bay refinery in St Croix.


Named for a partnership between Amerada Hess Corp. and Petróleos de Venezuela, the Hovensa refinery - along with a neighbouring aluminium plant and rum distillery - transformed its part of the island into an industrial landscape. The refinery ran a mix of oil and water through pipelines that were buried in the sand and became corroded. By 1982, the company identified underground contamination that ultimately released at least 300,000 barrels of petrochemicals and polluted the island's one aquifer. In 1994, the EPA determined that all the pipes needed to be replaced.

Lawsuits from local residents, the US Virgin Islands government and the EPA helped speed its demise. Hovensa's 2011 settlement with the EPA required it to pay a US$5.3 million fine and spend US$700 million to install modern pollution controls and offset its impact on local residents, including paying more than US$300,000 to start a cancer registry. The EPA later determined that at the time of the agreement the plant posed the ninth-highest cancer risk among all US refineries, but the total number of cases is hard to track because the island's health system is so threadbare that many people seek treatment in Florida or Puerto Rico instead.

After suffering US$1.3 billion in losses over the course of three years, the company halted operations in 2012 and declared bankruptcy three years later. The move meant that the company did not pay for a full cleanup, and paid smaller amounts to settle four class-action suits: US$4.7 million. Overnight, the territory lost its largest private employer, which accounted for at least 13 per cent of its GDP.


SALWAN GEORGES/THE WASHINGTON POST
Deposits from an oil spill washed onto a southwestern beach of Sandy Point National Wildlife Refuge in St Croix.

“There was no question that when Hovensa closed the operations in St. Croix, there were close to 4000 folks that pretty much lost their jobs,” said Kenneth Mapp, who served as the US Virgin Islands governor from 2015 to 2019.

In 2015, a subsidiary of the Boston-based equity firm ArcLight Capital bought the refinery. Its push to reopen had support among Trump administration officials, looking to expand US oil production, and local politicians who were eager to find a new source of revenue. The devastation wrought by Hurricanes Maria and Irma added urgency to the territory's campaign for fast-track approval.

Mapp, in a letter, appealed to Trump to expedite the reopening “for the benefit of the Nation's energy independence and the economic resurgence of the Virgin Islands of the United States.”

In August 2018, the EPA head Andrew Wheeler directed EPA appointees to help Limetree Bay “resume operations,” according to documents obtained under the Freedom of Information Act (FOIA).

SALWAN GEORGES/THE WASHINGTON POST
The fine mist of oil and water from Limetree Bay Refining rained down on the community of Clifton Hill, showering the slick mix onto cars, gardens, rooftops and cisterns filled with rainwater that residents use for daily tasks.


Officials from ArcLight – founded by GOP donor Daniel Revers – and its subsidiary worked with the Justice Department and the EPA to renegotiate the 2011 consent decree to restart the refinery. At one point, according to a document released under FOIA, Limetree Bay and its lawyers expressed “appreciation for [the EPA's] attention, coordination and responsiveness.”

For Trump appointees at the EPA, the application provided a test case for reinterpreting the Clean Air Act, which the Trump administration sought to weaken. Bill Wehrum, who headed the EPA's air office from November 2017 until June 2019, wanted to make it easier for industrial operations to expand without being forced to install stricter pollution controls.

In Limetree Bay's case, that meant the refinery would be treated as if it had never stopped operating, and would not require a new permit.

In meetings with White House officials, Wehrum cited Limetree as a model for how the Trump administration could approve plants across the nation more quickly, said two former federal officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss private deliberations.


SALWAN GEORGES/THE WASHINGTON POST
The Limetree Bay refinery.


Relying on a determination that Wehrum provided in an April 5, 2018, letter, Limetree Bay got a permit to operate from the US Virgin Islands government on December 30, 2019.

Limetree Bay also applied to the EPA for a new plantwide permit to process more oil. Trump officials set air emission limits based on the refinery's production a decade ago, when it processed more than 500,000 barrels a day - even though it planned to produce 200,000 barrels of low-sulfur marine fuel for its main customer, BP.

“We were literally in the dark for months, and not necessarily able to process or understand what was happening with the reopening of the refinery,” said Jennifer Valiulis, who directs the St Croix Environmental Association.

Parsons said the company spent US$100 million on environmental improvements on the plant, and has permanently shut down part of it. “Because Limetree upgraded the facility and reduced its capacity, the Limetree refinery emissions will be much lower than its predecessor.”

Even as the Trump administration helped usher through the company's applications, it documented how the refinery would affect nearby disadvantaged communities. The EPA found the adjoining neighbourhoods – where nearly 27 per cent of residents live below the poverty line and 75 per cent are people of colour – had “high risk vulnerability” to pollution. An earlier 2014 study, by the University of the Virgin Islands Eastern Caribbean Centre, found that White residents constituted 2 per cent of area residents.

“There is in fact a disproportionate burden in South-Central St Croix,” the EPA concluded in 2019, adding that “it is difficult to conclude” that the refinery “will not contribute to a disproportionately high and adverse human health or environmental effect” on nearby residents.

Shortly afterward, three air policy experts published a Harvard University law school paper criticising how the Trump administration had interpreted these provisions of the law, singling out Limetree Bay as an example. The paper's authors included Joseph Goffman, the EPA's acting assistant administrator for air, who is now with the Biden administration and has been reviewing Limetree's permit.


SALWAN GEORGES/THE WASHINGTON POST
Sonia Rivera and her husband, Errol Rivera, check vegetables in their backyard.


The University of the Virgin Islands 2014 study found that nearly twice as many residents “experienced asthmatic conditions during the past five years” compared with those living outside it, and that more than twice as many had chronic bronchitis.

On December 1, 2020 – less than two months before Trump left office – Wheeler took the unusual step of signing the permit allowing Limetree Bay refinery to expand or alter its operations, rather than leaving that to the regional office overseeing the island.

The refinery began producing fuel two months later.

The day it restarted, a coalition of groups – including the St. Croix Environmental Association, the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), the Centre for Biological Diversity and the Sierra Club – challenged one of Limetree's key air permits with the EPA.

Several of these groups are challenging the plantwide permit with the EPA's Environmental Appeals Board.

John Walke, the NRDC's clean air director, said the Trump administration's interpretation of the Clean Air Act violated the law.

Valiulis, of the St Croix Environmental Association, said that residents remain in the dark and that some have moved out of the area because their health was compromised.

“A lot of people live with cistern water, rainfall off the roof. Whatever goes in there you drink,” she said. “We're certainly outraged about the process, the lack of information. We don't know what the monitoring levels are, what they're allowed to do and if anybody is monitoring.”

Neither the governor's office nor the territory's department of planning and natural resources responded to requests for comment.

Mapp said Limetree Bay has provided an economic lifeline for the territory during the pandemic. “Absent of that plant, the government of the Virgin Islands would have been in significant financial problems once its tourism industry was closed.”

Several residents credited the company for being more responsive than its predecessor. According to the company, by March 3 it had contacted or inspected 213 homes, washed 208 cars, cleaned 134 roofs and sampled 135 cisterns. It has been delivering bottled water to many Clinton Hill residents, and it has hired a local claims adjuster to negotiate how to pay for damage.

But residents in the contaminated neighbourhood cannot bathe or easily wash dishes with bottled water. Limetree's contractors confirmed that Muñoz's cistern is contaminated.

“We are very uncomfortable to hear oil is in the water,” said Muñoz. But he was not surprised. “It had a little odour now and then, sometimes a little taste.”

Sonya Rivera, whose husband, Errol, only ate from their organic garden, said 90 per cent of it was lost because of the incident. “They destroyed all our foods,” she said. “Everything was dead.”

It's a concern, Rivera said, that Limetree should have addressed more rapidly and never allowed to happen again. “I'm infuriated,” said Rivera, 53. “I know things happen. That plant just opened and things happen. But just take a little more consideration on this community. You know you caused this problem, just rectify it.”

Another resident, Steve, who asked to be identified only by his first name because he is afraid of speaking out against the company, said he heard sirens blare from the refinery on the morning of February 4. But Steve and his family did not understand what the siren meant and didn't find out about the accident until many days later.

“We didn't pay it no attention,” he said. “At that time, we were eating and drinking whatever's there in the water.”


The Washington Post

 Trump falsely claims January 6 rioters were 'hugging and kissing' police 



Is sex addiction really a thing? Science is skeptical

2021/3/26 ©TheAtlantaJournalConstitution

Atlanta police officers and detectives respond to the crime scene at Aromatherapy Spa and Gold Spa, both located in the 1900 block of Piedmont Road NE in Atlanta, Tuesday, March 16, 2021. - Alyssa Pointer / Alyssa.Pointer@ajc.com/TNS

ATLANTA – To join the church Atlanta spa shooting suspect Robert Aaron Long attended, you have to adhere to certain non-negotiable edicts, a terms of agreement of sorts for membership.

In a section titled “Diligence of Members,” Crabapple First Baptist Church leaders defined marriage as between a man and a woman and said sex was limited to married couples.

“Lust is a huge problem in our culture today and the ease of access to materials that feed temptation is unprecedented,” church leaders warned on their website.

For Long, 21, the lure of sexual gratification proved impossible to ignore. Last week, after a shooting spree that left eight people dead at three metro area spas he had frequented, he told investigators he had sought to eliminate the temptations brought on by his addiction to sex. The Woodstock man, charged with eight counts of murder, had unsuccessfully sought treatment at two local clinics.

Medical science is skeptical that sex addiction is an actual thing. It is not listed as an official diagnosis in the American Psychiatric Association’s Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, considered a bible for doctors, researchers and medical insurers. As a legal defense, it would be virtually unprecedented.

“I’ve never heard of it being used in a murder case,” Decatur attorney Keith Adams said. “It’s not a defense. Now maybe it’s a reason. But he can have illogical thoughts without having a mental disorder.”

Long’s addiction was real, say those familiar with his struggle to live a chaste life. Tyler Bayless, Long’s former roommate at Maverick Recovery, where they were treated in 2019 and 2020, said Long was hounded by shame and self-loathing every time he caved to carnal desires.

Bayless, writing on Facebook, said the shootings were “the product of an emotionally disturbed young man who was religious to the point of mania.”
‘Your soul is at stake’

In November, Associate Pastor Luke Folsom preached about the dangers of pornography and advised church members to get rid of their smartphones and cut off their internet service to avoid it, according to the New York Times.

“Your soul is at stake,” he said. Folsom did not respond to requests for comments by the AJC.

The church encouraged members to download software that would send alerts about “questionable web browsing” to a designated person to provide accountability.

“We owe it to our brothers and sisters in Christ, our families, and most of all, our Lord to battle against this temptation,” the church wrote. It said members who did not believe they had a problem with sex should install the app “to help avoid even the appearance of evil.”

According to Bayless, after Long left Maverick Recovery, he sought help at HopeQuest, an evangelical treatment center in Acworth, financially supported by several suburban churches.

Officials for HopeQuest did not respond to a request for comment. In one of several videos describing the center’s philosophy, Executive Director Troy Haas talks about how HopeQuest gets its clients.

“Our phone rings daily with calls from pastors, church leaders and Christians asking for help, overwhelmed with the problem of sexual addiction in context of the church and their lives,” Haas said.

In a podcast recorded in 2016, Haas urged pastors to address sinful sex in their congregations and the importance of “intensive residential treatment” for “sexual addiction or unwanted same-sex attraction.”

William Lloyd Allen, a professor of church history at Mercer University’s McAfee School of Theology, said Long’s alleged acts of violence reflect a disturbed mind. But he said they do need to be viewed within the context of the evangelical church.

“In a deranged way, he is simply backing up the theology he was given. He was given the theology that women are temptresses,” he said. “They teach that women tend to tempt men and especially impure women. They teach that God wants people before marriage to never admit sexual desire, and if they do have sexual desires to think of them as sinful. So why wouldn’t he do those things if he is a little – or a lot – off balance?”

On March 21, following a somber Sunday service, the members of Crabapple voted to expel Long from the church, saying his actions showed he was not truly saved. Allen said the evidence would suggest the twice-baptized man believed himself to be a committed Christian “trying to live the life God wants him to live.”

In his regular podcast, Albert Mohler, president of the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, criticized the media attention placed on Crabapple and conservative Baptist theology in the wake of the shootings.

“As you look at this coverage it becomes increasingly clear that many in the mainstream media think it is, well, just odd that you would have Christians that would have such a concern with anything that might be described as lust,” he said. “Of course, the entire category of sin makes no sense in secular world view.”

Mohler said Long was not driven by the teachings of the church, but by a “tragic mixture of sexuality, of struggle, of what may well have been racism and sexual stereotyping of what was, as it turned out, a racially or ethnically patterned crime, even if that was not consciously at the heart of the crime.”

Mohler said sin, not Long’s claim of sexual addiction, was the root cause of his problems.

“One of the things that comes up in this article is the fact that this young man and others referred to his pattern of sin as an addiction. That is not a biblical word,” he said. “Therapy is not the rescue when it comes to sin. Only Christ is.”

Allen said Long was failed by a “white nationalistic religious subculture” that cloaked sex in shame and guilt, devalued women and minorities, and rejects therapy that is not “Bible-based.”

“He is not rejecting all your values. He is distorting all those values, but he got those values from you,” he said. “He is mentally deranged, but I think he is genuinely one of us – a white, evangelical Christian who went off the rails.”
Science skeptical

Sexual and mental health organizations reject establishing sex addiction as a diagnosis, said David Ley, a clinical psychologist and the author of “The Myth of Sex Addiction.”

The American Psychiatric Association’s Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders’ 2013 edition said addictions to sex, shopping and exercises were not included because there was insufficient peer-reviewed evidence to identify them as mental disorders.

“While there are people who struggle to control their sexual desires, there is absolutely no scientific evidence that struggle is an addiction,” Ley said.

Ley and Joshua Grubbs, an assistant professor of psychology at Bowling Green State University, both dismissed the idea that sex addiction can make people commit violence.

“We have studies that show millions of Americans are concerned that their sexual behaviors might be excessive or out of control,” Grubbs said. “If that is true, millions of them are not going out and committing mass murder.”

Last year, Grubbs coauthored a study that found there was “almost no empirical basis for the treatment of compulsive sexual behaviors.” But that hasn’t stopped therapists, many connected to religious organizations, from offering treatment, much of which emphasizes abstinence.

“When we are inherently mammals that have a drive that is hardwired into us, it is not realistic for everybody,” Grubbs said. “Total abstinence often ignores that. It sets people up for failure.”

Ley holds similar views.

“Sex addiction treatment is absolutely not supported by science,” he said. “It is frankly unethical and potentially malpractice that people are out there providing these treatments and charging people a lot of money for them when there is no evidence they work. It is essentially experimental treatment.”

Nicole Prause, a neuroscientist who researches human sexual behavior and addiction, worries sex addiction treatment centers could harm patients struggling with other conditions, including depression.

“The major concern is that these sex addiction centers are delaying treatment for something that is appropriate to treat, which is most likely to be depression but it could be something else,” said Prause, who founded Liberos, an independent research institute in Los Angeles.

“There are lots of for-profit and religious organizations that will absolutely cause you to be upset about your sexual behavior because it benefits them. They can make money off of you or they can use this to support their religious goals.”
A legal dead end

Because it’s not accepted as a mental disorder, defenses based on sex addiction are rare. If anything, defense attorneys will trot it out as a mitigating factor aimed at producing a lesser sentence. Adams, the Decatur lawyer, said you’re more likely to see it raised in cases involving child porn possession or distribution.

Long’s attorney, Daran Burns, declined comment.

There have been some cases where the prosecution seized on an alleged perpetrator’s sex life to help explain a motive. That’s how Cobb County prosecutors framed their case against Justin Ross Harris, sentenced in 2016 to life in prison plus 32 years after he was found guilty of intentionally leaving his 22-month-old son inside a hot SUV to die. They argued he killed his son in order to pursue a sex-driven, consequence-free lifestyle.

Harris’ defense team fought unsuccessfully to block testimony about Harris’ extramarital dalliances and sexting. Lead Harris attorney Maddox Kilgore told the AJC that once that evidence was admitted his team never considered using addiction to explain their client’s behavior.

“If you put it into the proper context perhaps it can humanize the defendant,” he said. “But a lot of judges probably wouldn’t allow it.”

Georgia’s mental health statutes are very narrow, Kilgore said. Defendants must prove they were incapable of distinguishing between right and wrong, for instance.

For Long, choosing between what he considered right and wrong was a constant struggle.

“I wonder how this would have gone [if] he had been in an environment where he wasn’t repeatedly told how sinful he was for the things that drove him,” wrote Bayless, Long’s old roommate.



BANANA REPUBLIC(ANS) 
Missouri GOP justifies blocking 
voter-approved Medicaid expansion 
because 'rural Missouri said no'
Brad Reed
March 26, 2021

www.rawstory.com

Even though a majority of voters in Missouri last year voted to expand the state's Medicaid program, Republican legislators in the state have continued blocking funds for the expansion.

The Kansas City Star reports that Republicans in the state insist that the Medicaid expansion vote doesn't reflect the true will of the voters, even though 53 percent of voters supported it while 47 percent voted against it.

Republican Missouri State Rep. Sara Walsh even explicitly said that she was opposed to funding the voter-approved expansion because it did not win the support of rural voters, only a third of whom voted in favor of it.

"Rural Missouri said no," she said. "I don't believe it is the will of the people to bankrupt our state."

Additionally, the Kansas City Star writes that Republican State Rep. Ed Lewis argued that "despite that 53% of those who cast ballots in favor of expansion, the number did not amount to a majority of Missouri's eligible voters or population," and should thus be ignored by lawmakers.
QAnon Has Become The Cult That Cries Wolf

By Kaleigh Rogers
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT
Filed under Q Anon
MAR. 26, 2021, AT 6:16 AM




PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES

March 4 was supposed to be a terrible day. Based on reports of a possible attack, linked to the fact the online cult QAnon had identified March 4 as the day their predictions would come true, nearly 5,000 National Guard troops were ordered to remain in Washington, D.C. Capitol police warned internally of a Q-fueled militia plot, and FBI officials noted it was on alert as well. Congress shut down operations for the day.

And then, nothing. No plot, no protests, no Q. March 4 was a limp, dried-out nothingburger.

Confidence Interval: QAnon is not going anywhere | FiveThirtyEight

Dates have always played a crucial role in the cult of Q — the baseless conspiracy theory that there is a global cabal of Satan-worshipping child sex traffickers, and that former President Donald Trump is involved in a righteous plan to bring these evildoers to justice. The group’s predictions are often tied to some date on the horizon, when Trump’s adversaries will start to be arrested and the global sex trafficking ring will be exposed. The latest date was March 4, but before that it was Jan. 20. And before that it was Dec. 5. And before that, some date in “Red October.”


RELATED: Why QAnon Has Attracted So Many White Evangelicals Read more. »

For a long time, we didn’t have to circle these dates on our own calendars. But after the attack of the Capitol building included some QAnon followers, the group’s timeline has caught the attention of law enforcement. Even if the dates aren’t signalling the fall of a global cabal, perhaps they could help us prevent another deadly attack. Just as a doomsday cult continually reworks its calculations to account for failed end of days predictions, QAnon is always moving the goalposts for when its big day will arrive. It’s the cult that cries wolf.

Just take March 4 as an example.


To understand March 4, we have to start with all the other March 4s that came before it. QAnon has long warned a “storm is coming,” and that at some point the shadowy group of Democratic and celebrity elites — said to be pedophiles who eat babies and drink children’s blood — would be brought to justice. When exactly this will take place has been a moving target since Q’s inception.

Some of the earliest messages from “Q,” an anonymous person or group of people claiming insider knowledge on which the QAnon conspiracy theory is based, specified precisely when these arrests would begin. A post in October 2017 claimed that “Hillary Clinton will be arrested between 7:45 AM – 8:30 AM EST on Monday – the morning on Oct 30, 2017.” When this didn’t happen, new dates were disseminated. Gradually, Q’s posts became more vague, allowing the followers to project meaning onto cryptic messages to decipher what would happen when. That way, if nothing happened, it was simply because Q followers had misinterpreted the scripture-like missives, not because Q was bogus. The result has been a constantly evolving ephemeris of dates, culminating in a fever pitch of anticipation for Jan. 20, 2021. Most QAnon followers believed that on Inauguration Day, Trump would reveal he had actually won the election, introduce martial law and begin public trials and executions of those in the cabal.

When this prophecy failed, just as all the previous ones had, many QAnon followers were inconsolable. Some even decided to abandon the movement altogether, saying they felt duped. But others simply went back to the drawing board, hoping to find another date on which to hang their hopes. That’s when March 4 started to pick up steam.

RELATED: What Comes Next For QAnon Followers Read more. »

Despite the often illogical nature of QAnon predictions, the March 4 date wasn’t plucked out of thin air. As a date of significance, it predates QAnon entirely. For much of U.S. history, Inauguration Day was indeed on March 4, until the ratification of the 20th Amendment in 1933 changed it to Jan. 20. A decades-old conspiracy theory held by a group known as the sovereign citizen movement claims that at some point in the 1870s,1 the United States government was converted to a corporation owned by the city of London, and every president since Ulysses S. Grant has been illegitimate. According to this far-out thinking, U.S. birth certificates and Social Security cards are actually contracts of ownership, with U.S. citizens as property of this vast, foreign-owner corporation. Though the sovereign citizens’ conspiracy is even more elaborate, the QAnon followers only lifted the bits that served them, and decided that on March 4, the “corporation” of the United States would be dissolved, and Trump would take office as the 19th legitimate president.

This theory was floated in QAnon circles in early 2021. On Jan. 11, a user in a Q Telegram chat room wrote out the basics of the theory. “Trump will NOT be sworn in as the 45th president of the United States on January 20 Trump WILL take office as the 19th president of the United States on March 4,” the post reads. “I really don’t know all the details involved in this. Just know the end goal has always been the destruction of that 1871 corporation and the return of America to the people like the democratic republic it always intended to be.” On Jan. 15, Canadian Q vlogger Michelle Anne Tittler posted a video in which she reads out the same text, which became popular once Jan. 20 failed to deliver, as Recode reporter Rebecca Heilweil noted. The video had been cross-posted to alt-video sites, and the March 4 idea continued to spread on mainstream platforms like Facebook, Twitter, YouTube and TikTok, as well as on Telegram and QAnon message boards. By January 22, the theory had spread far enough that Reuters ran a fact check debunking the rumour. Tittler’s YouTube profile was eventually removed for violating the site’s policies, but not before the video promoting March 4 had racked up nearly 1 million views. The cross posts of her video on BitChute and Rumble have currently been viewed 124,000 and 66,000 times, respectively.

As the idea of March 4 was picking up steam in the QAnon community, it also caught on in the news media. Dozens of stories identified March 4 as the group’s latest goalpost, citing it as a potential sequel to the insurrection on Jan. 6.

But Jan. 6 and March 4 differed in a number of important ways. Jan. 6 attracted many more than just QAnon supporters. It was a rally promoted by Trump, who invited the thousands of his supporters that came to D.C. that day. Along with QAnon believers, there were also far-right militia groups with backgrounds of instigating violence who were known to be planning to come to the Capitol that day. It was also an undeniably significant date, not significant in the QAnon, cryptic puzzle sense, but in a practical sense: Jan. 6 was the day Congress was certifying the results of an election that millions of Americans wrongly believed was fraudulent, thanks to Trump’s lies. Jan. 6 had all of the ingredients necessary for a dark outcome, yet law enforcement was not prepared.

In contrast, March 4 was almost strictly QAnon-focused, and even among that group, there was little consensus. That’s the norm for dates in the QAnon almanac. When someone identifies a date of interest, it snowballs into dozens more followers promoting the idea, which then sparks debate and deliberation among the community. Followers share evidence for and against a particular date, noting that Q — who hasn’t posted since December, the longest period of silence since the entity began posting in 2017 — rarely specifies exact dates anymore.

But even when there is widespread consensus among Q followers on a given date, such as Jan. 20, QAnon rarely makes a call to action more extreme than “pop some popcorn.” Much of the Q philosophy is that the work is done through research on your computer, and when big events take place, all Q followers have to do is sit back and enjoy the show. The message is “on this date, turn your TV on,” not “on this date, we take to the streets.” This is such a well-hewn tenet of the QAnon cult that other alt-right groups often criticize QAnon for promoting complacency rather than the kind of violent uprising those groups prefer.

“QAnon is built in part on this fantasy that you can change the world in a really grand, revolutionary way just by sitting at your computer and sharing memes,” said Travis View, co-host of the podcast QAnon Anonymous, which has been tracking the movement for years. “Jan. 6 was unique because it was an event specifically promoted by Trump. You really need those big advertising powers from those influencers in order to motivate QAnon followers to do something in the physical world.”


RELATED: How Marjorie Taylor Greene Won, And Why Someone Like Her Can Win Again Read more. »

Either way, as soon as the media began publicizing the March 4 date, that coverage threw a lot of cold water on the notion. Just as quickly as the idea emerged, it was being backpedaled. As early as Feb. 9, Jordan Sather, a QAnon influencer, posted on Telegram that he had the feeling the March 4 date was “planned disinformation” designed “to dupe people into spreading probably nonsense theories that make the whole movement look dumb.” Very quickly, the prevailing theory among QAnon was that March 4 was either a psychological operation or a false flag. Q supporters began rejecting the idea and mocking media coverage of the date.

“March 4 is the media’s baby,” MelQ, a QAnon influencer on Telegram with over 80,000 subscribers, wrote on March 2. “Nothing will happen.”

Law enforcement in and around D.C. could very well have had reliable intelligence suggesting a more organized event on March 4, which may have been squelched by the increased security. We can’t know for sure. I reached out to U.S. Capitol Police officials for comment, but they only directed me to their previous statement, which does not cite QAnon or any other group by name.

QAnon, by and large, is not a violent movement, and popular “holidays” among Anons are not going to be the best place to look for predicting violent events, according to security experts I spoke to.

“There are organized, white supremacist and far-right militant groups that commit violence on a recurring basis, and that’s the biggest element that’s lost in the way law enforcement looks at these issues. They tend to look at them as standalone events,” said former FBI agent Michael German, a fellow at the Brennan Center for Justice. “They’re not looking for violence these same individuals committed in the weeks, months and years previous to the attack on the Capitol that would be significant evidence demonstrating their intent.”

Instead, German said law enforcement should focus on individuals and groups with a known track record of violence, and rely on intelligence — rather than random dates tossed around on Q forums — for predicting and preventing violence. That’s not to say we should brush QAnon off as harmless: after all, there are QAnon supporters who have been involved in violent plots, including a man arrested in Wisconsin last week for threatening to commit a “mass casualty” event. And even beyond these outlier offenders, the QAnon movement, including its ever-evolving calendar of predicted catastrophes, comes with its own very real risks in undermining trust in our democratic institutions in a very real, insidious and growing way.

“We need to worry about Q not because it’s about to overthrow the government,” said Mia Bloom, a professor of communication at Georgia State University and an expert on QAnon and extremism. “We need to worry about Q because the long-term effect is corrosive to democratic values.”

The cult who cried wolf is not one whose cries should be written off for good.



Covid-19 vaccine wars: developing the AstraZeneca vaccine was a triumph, but then things went wrong

FeaturedMartin McKee
Comment and opinion from The BMJ's international community 
of readers, authors, and editors  

March 26, 2021

The UK’s tabloid press was having a field day. “NO, EU CAN’T HAVE OUR JABS” said the Daily Mail, a message echoed by the Daily Express with “WAIT YOUR TURN! SELFISH EU WANTS OUR VACCINES”. These headlines reflected a combination of triumphalism about the UK’s success in what, by common agreement, has been a remarkably successful vaccine rollout—especially when compared to the slower progress in the EU—anger that the decisions by certain national regulators a few days previously to suspend use of the Oxford AstraZeneca vaccine were somehow a punishment for Brexit, and indignation that these foreigners were trying to steal “our” vaccines. Inevitably, the reality is a little more complex.

To understand what has happened we need to go back to early 2020 when some of the key decisions were taken. The team at Oxford had produced a candidate vaccine in record time, but needed an industrial partner to bring it to market. Their initial choice was the US company Merck, which had extensive experience in manufacturing vaccines. However, this was greeted with alarm in Whitehall, as there was no guarantee that any vaccines produced by an American company would be available to the UK. Instead, the UK government insisted that Oxford reach an agreement with the Anglo-Swedish company AstraZeneca.

There was one important issue. AstraZeneca had no experience producing vaccines. The trials to assess safety and efficacy of the vaccine suffered from a series of problems. One subject developed unexplained neurological symptoms and the trials were paused. Clearly, there is always a risk when large numbers of healthy individuals are given a new product that some will experience unconnected events. The trials were soon restarted, although with some delay in the US arm. Then, 2741 subjects received half the intended dosage. This was less easily explained. However, the real problem was how both were communicated. There were clear contradictions in how the neurological problem was described in the company’s press statements, comments to investors, and internal documents. When the initial results from the trials were reported, the company focused on the figure of 90% efficacy in the group that inadvertently received the lower dose. Inevitably, this apparent success was welcomed, but soon questions were raised. Many details were missing and, contrary to best practice, the results of different trials had been combined. It was not immediately clear that the dosing difference was unplanned. Meanwhile, commentators struggled to ascertain whether the 90% figure was due to the longer delay in getting a second dose that was experienced by those getting the lower dose, or because they included few older people. Indeed, as it became clear that older people were under-represented in all the trial data, concerns grew about how effective the vaccine would be in these individuals.

These communication problems were only the start. Once production got underway it became clear that AstraZeneca was unable to deliver what it had promised. Again, this was understandable. Vaccine manufacture is extremely complex and the manufacturers of the other vaccines also faced problems. However, what was different was how each company responded. AstraZeneca had signed contracts with both the UK and EU authorities. It had agreed to deliver up to 120 million doses to the EU by the end of March 2021. Yet as the scale of the manufacturing problems emerged, it advised the EU that it could only promise 30 million doses, subsequently increased to 40 million. Understandably, the EU was unhappy, a situation not helped when it became clear that the EU was exporting millions of doses of vaccines, including to countries such as the UK that were also manufacturing vaccines, while receiving none in return. The resulting shortage had become the limiting factor holding up the vaccine rollout in several EU member states. Meanwhile, the UK was receiving vaccines from both its own factories and those in Belgium and India.

The reasons for this situation remain heavily contested, but the problem seems to lie with how AstraZeneca signed two contracts that were incompatible, given its manufacturing problems. Beyond that, however, the precise issues are far from clear. Gareth Davies, a law professor in Amsterdam, has written a helpful analysis of what we know and, crucially, what we do not know.

Seen in these ways, it is clear that the dispute is between the EU and AstraZeneca. However, a resolution is complicated by a severe breakdown in trust. In the midst of this dispute the company gave the impression that it had learned nothing from the issues with releasing the initial trial data. In an unprecedented development, the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases reported being notified by the Data and Safety Monitoring Board for the US trial that “it was concerned by information released by AstraZeneca on initial data from its Covid-19 vaccine clinical trial.” Philippe Lamberts, co-leader of the Green group in the European Parliament, spoke for many when he said “It would seem AstraZeneca has a major problem of organisational culture. It’s a culture of unreliability.” Thierry Breton, the EU internal market commissioner, reported that while he was in “constant contact” with AstraZeneca, he had “not always received consistent explanations” about supply problems.

As if this was not enough, as noted at the beginning of this piece, this dispute is being reframed by some as a UK-EU dispute and indeed there was a danger that it could become one when the European Commission proposed making provisions for a possible ban on exports, something that was not supported by the European Council. However, perhaps inevitably, this was encouraged by the well-founded distrust in Brussels of the UK, which has breached its obligations under the Northern Ireland Protocol, so that the EU has had to take enforcement action. Fortunately, calmer voices have prevailed, perhaps by ensuring that the UK officials involved in negotiating the post-Brexit agreements, whose confrontational stance has been all too obvious, have been kept away from the discussions.

It has long been known that trust is a fundamental pre-requisite for a successful vaccination campaign. Normally, this is viewed as trust between those being invited to be vaccinated and those inviting them. This case is different, but the principles are the same. Regrettably this seems to be spilling over into public concern about this vaccine in some countries and there is a danger that it may do wider damage, given the existence of many groups and individuals that seek to exploit any concerns about vaccines. AstraZeneca certainly needs to take a long hard look at how it has handled this process and learn from it. The Oxford AstraZeneca team have developed a vaccine that is safe and effective. It would be a tragedy if their efforts were squandered by self inflicted actions that lead to a loss of trust.

Martin McKee, professor of European public health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine
Competing interests: MMK is a member of Independent SAGE in the UK and the European Commission’s Expert Panel on Investing in Health.