China's bitcoin mining is threatening its climate change targets, study says
Sam Shead 

Some 75% of the world's bitcoin mining is done in China, where there is cheap electricity and relatively easy access to manufacturers who make specialized hardware, according to the study.

Unlike most forms of currency — issued by a single entity like a central bank — bitcoin is based on a decentralized network and needs to be "mined."

This mining on computers uses vast amounts of electricity, especially when conducted on a large scale.

© Provided by CNBC Technicians make repairs to bitcoin mining machines at a mining facility operated by Bitmain in Ordos, Inner Mongolia, China, on Friday, Aug. 11, 2017.

China could end up exceeding its emissions reduction targets as a result of carbon-intensive bitcoin mining, according to a study published this week.

Some 75% of the world's bitcoin mining is done in China, where there is cheap electricity and relatively easy access to manufacturers who make specialized hardware, according to the study. As a result, the nation's bitcoin carbon footprint is as big as one of its ten largest cities, the paper claims.

Unlike most forms of currency — issued by a single entity like a central bank — bitcoin is based on a decentralized network and needs to be "mined."

This takes place when bitcoin transactions, recorded on a public ledger called the blockchain, are "verified" by miners. These miners run purpose-built computers to solve complex mathematical puzzles that effectively allow a bitcoin transaction to happen; the miners then receive bitcoin as a reward.

This mining on computers uses vast amounts of electricity, especially when conducted on a large scale.

The research on China's mining activities — published by peer-reviewed journal Nature Communications on Tuesday — was conducted by academics from the University of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Tsinghua University, Cornell University and the University of Surrey.

It comes despite rhetoric from China that it is keen to become more environmentally friendly. President Xi Jinping said last year that the country is targeting peak carbon dioxide emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by the year 2060. But bitcoin threatens to derail those plans.

"Without appropriate interventions and feasible policies, the intensive bitcoin blockchain operation in China can quickly grow as a threat that could potentially undermine the emission reduction effort taken place in the country," the authors wrote.

Worldwide, bitcoin mining consumes an estimated 128.84 terrawatt-hour (Twh) per year of energy — more than entire countries such as Ukraine and Argentina, according to the Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index, a project of the University of Cambridge.

Video: How to mine cryptocurrencies sustainably (CNBC)

"The growing energy consumption and associated carbon emission of bitcoin mining could potentially undermine global sustainable efforts," wrote the authors of the latest study.

"Without any policy interventions, the annual energy consumption of the bitcoin blockchain in China is expected to peak in 2024 at 296.59 Twh and generate 130.50 million metric tons of carbon emission correspondingly."

The authors note that China's bitcoin energy usage by 2024 will surpass the total energy consumption of Italy or Saudi Arabia.

While the study was published in a peer-reviewed journal, some have said it lacks the necessary data.

Nic Carter, partner at venture capital firm Castle Island Ventures and co-founder of crypto website Coin Metrics, wrote on Twitter that the paper "leaves a lot to be desired."

"I expected most of the paper to be about province-level data covering energy mix of Chinese miners," wrote Carter. "But that's missing. Instead, they claim to have taken this into account... but don't show their work. They just assert they've quantified this."

The authors did not immediately respond to CNBC's request for comment.
Taking action

China's Inner Mongolia region said last month that it plans to ban new cryptocurrency mining projects and shut down existing activity in a bid to cut down on energy consumption.

Inner Mongolia, located in northern China, failed to meet central government assessment targets regarding energy use in 2019 and was scolded by Beijing. In response, the region's development and reform commission laid out plans to reduce energy consumption. Part of those plans involve shutting down existing cryptocurrency mining projects by April 2021 and not approving any new ones.

The motives for China's intensive bitcoin mining could go beyond making money (bitcoin's value has soared from $7,000 to almost $60,000 in the last year). Silicon Valley billionaire Peter Thiel expressed concerns this week that bitcoin could be used as a "Chinese financial weapon against the U.S."

"Even though I'm sort of a pro-crypto, pro-bitcoin maximalist person, I do wonder whether at this point bitcoin should also be thought in part of as a Chinese financial weapon against the U.S., where it threatens fiat money, but it especially threatens the U.S. dollar, and China wants to do things to weaken it, so China's long bitcoin," Thiel said on Tuesday at a virtual event held by the Richard Nixon Foundation.

The PayPal and Palantir co-founder has invested in bitcoin companies and previously said he was "long bitcoin" and considers it the "digital equivalent of gold."

— Additional reporting by CNBC's Arjun Kharpal.

CANADA

The sense of urgency around climate change is trending up

Monica Gattinger and Nik Nanos 4/8/2021

Monica Gattinger is Director of the Institute for Science, Society and Policy, Chair of Positive Energy, and a Full Professor at the University of Ottawa’s School of Political Studies

Nik Nanos is the Chair and CEO of Nanos Research and Chair of Positive Energy’s Advisory Council.

© Used with permission of / © St. Joseph Communications. People march during a climate change protest in Vancouver on March 27, 2021 (Liang Sen/Xinhua via ZUMA Press)

It has been over a year since the pandemic struck and governments restructured the economy and society around physical distancing. COVID has dramatically altered our day-to-day lives; it has also altered our policy priorities. In early 2020, the environment was the number one policy issue on Canadians’ minds. Four months into the pandemic, the environment had fallen behind COVID, the economy and health care.

Since Summer 2020, the University of Ottawa’s Positive Energy program and Nanos Research have tracked Canadians’ climate ambition in the midst of the pandemic. Do people think it is a good time to be ambitious in addressing climate change? What is driving their views?

Our latest round of tracking shows that Canadians continue to lean towards climate action, and the sense of urgency to act is growing. We have been asking Canadians on a scale of zero to 10, where zero means absolutely the worst time and 10 absolutely the best time, how good a time it is for Canada to be ambitious in addressing climate change. Our latest results show that one in two Canadians believe now is the best time to be ambitious about climate change (7-10) rather than an OK time (4-6, about one in five) or the worst time (0-3, about one in four). The results remain relatively consistent across time. Across all three surveys, we observed greater support for climate ambition among Québécois and Atlantic Canadians, women, and ideologically left-leaning Canadians, with less support among Canadians in the Prairies, men, and ideologically right-leaning Canadians

© Provided by Maclean's

(Nanos Research)

We scratched beneath the surface by asking respondents why they gave the answer they did. Here, we see a clear trendline. As the pandemic continues, the public appears increasingly sensitive to the urgency of climate change. The first time we asked this question, 21 per cent of respondents said, “We need to act now, climate change can’t wait”. In the latest round of tracking, this number is up to 39 per cent. No other response has seen this type of growth. Here, the results are fairly conclusive: Canadians feel greater urgency to act on climate change now than they did in the early months of the pandemic.

But not all Canadians are ambitious about climate, nor do they see the urgency to act now. Using the zero to 10 scale helps to show the strength of disagreement among some Canadians on this issue. Here, our survey results reveal a troubling pattern: each time we’ve asked the question, between 34 and 39 per cent of respondents answered either 0 or 10 (split about evenly between the two categories). In other words, a sizeable number of Canadians hold very strong opinions either for or against climate action. What’s more, when we break out the data across regional, partisan or ideological lines, the percentage of those answering 0 or 10 jumps even higher. Polarized views like this are challenging for the political system to deal with. When peoples’ opinions harden in this way, they’re less likely to be open to compromise and change.

Looking forward to the federal budget, our 2030 targets, and beyond, policymakers and decision-makers must navigate this context carefully. One crucial piece of this is understanding which segments of the public trust them when they speak. We asked respondents to use a scale of 0 to 10 to rate how much they trust a variety of information sources on climate change.

Peer-reviewed science / researchers are by far the most trusted sources on climate change, with more than three in four Canadians scoring them between 7 and 10. Environmental organizations and traditional news media were the next two most trusted source (52 per cent and 43 per cent of respondents answering between 7 and 10). For public sector sources, Canadians distinguish between government agencies and politicians, trusting agencies three times more than politicians (38 per cent versus 12 per cent). Industry is trusted about the same as politicians—not very much. Social media is by far the least trusted information source, a somewhat reassuring finding for those concerned about misinformation.
© Provided by Maclean's

(Nanos Research)

Interestingly, trust in peer-reviewed science and researchers holds across ideological, partisan and regional lines. This is good news as it suggests Canadians will look to research and science to inform their views. That said, our findings suggest that ideologically right-leaning Canadians are less trusting of all information sources. In our November survey, we asked Canadians what information sources they trust for climate issues. The most common response among ideologically conservative Canadians was none. This is a challenge.

Building public confidence in decisions will be crucial to charting Canada’s energy future in an age of climate change. Our findings show that Canadians’ level of climate ambition is holding steady during the pandemic and the sense of urgency is growing. Yet the size and strength of opposition is large and concentrated enough to challenge initiatives that have majority support. Understanding the nature and scope of opposition, and mobilizing trusted information sources, will be vital going forward.

Source: Positive Energy/Nanos Research, RDD dual frame hybrid telephone and online random survey, February 28th to March 4th, 2021, n=1016, accurate 3.1 percentage points plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

Report details at www.nanos.com

https://www.uottawa.ca/positive-energy

IMF warns that debt overhang and financial vulnerabilities pose double threat to economic recovery
Sam Meredith 

CNBC

4/8/2021

The IMF is praising the U.S. for extraordinary stimulus but is warning that these measures can cause longer-term damage to worldwide economies.

"There's no question that stimulus in the United States presents a very favorable backdrop to the growth projections that we have made," said the IMF's Geoffrey Okamoto.

IMF warns debt overhang and financial vulnerabilities pose double threat

LONDON — Policymakers and central banks need to be "very selective" with stimulus measures to avoid endangering global economic growth over the medium term, according to a top official at the International Monetary Fund, with a debt overhang and financial vulnerabilities identified as possible risks.

The warning comes as the IMF appears to be trying to orchestrate a delicate balancing act at its spring meetings this week.

The Washington-based institute has singled out the U.S. for praise in enacting extraordinary stimulus amid the coronavirus crisis to fast-track a global economic recovery, while also warning about the potential for these measures to cause longer-term structural damage to worldwide economies.

"There's no question that stimulus in the United States presents a very favorable backdrop to the growth projections that we have made," Geoffrey Okamoto, first deputy managing director of the IMF, told CNBC's Joumanna Bercetche on Wednesday.

"I wouldn't characterize it as a crutch. This is a tailwind, right, that countries should be able to use or capitalize on to try and ride through the remaining amount of time until they can get all of their citizens jabbed and their economies reopen," he added.

The IMF said in its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday that the global economy was on track to expand 6% this year, upgrading its forecast for the second time in three months. It comes after an estimated 3.3% contraction in 2020 and the worst global recession since World War II.

IMF managing director Kristalina Georgieva said the brighter outlook was underpinned by the rollout of coronavirus vaccines and economic stimulus measures, "especially in the United States."

In a move expected to supercharge the U.S. economic recovery, President Joe Biden's $1.9 trillion stimulus package passed last month. The White House has since sought to make a $2 trillion infrastructure plan the administration's next legislative priority.

When asked whether policymakers and central banks were at risk of overeating economies as a result of ultra-accommodative measures, Okamoto replied: "Both on fiscal and monetary policy posture, keeping accommodation in place for too long does invite risks."

'Risks to growth'

"On the monetary policy side, keeping monetary policy accommodation in place for too long does invite certain vulnerabilities to come into the financial sector," Okamoto said, adding the institute had said in its Global Financial Stability Report that regulators would need to contain these risks.

The IMF report, published Tuesday, said that while there is a pressing need to avoid a legacy of vulnerabilities, actions taken during the coronavirus pandemic "may have unintended consequences such as stretched valuations and rising financial vulnerabilities."

It also highlights a stark divergence between a small number of advanced economies and emerging market economies, with low-income countries seen to be at risk of falling further behind during a multispeed recovery.

© Provided by CNBC A worker works on a production line to produce electrical products for domestic and Southeast Asian markets in Hai 'an city, east China's Jiangsu province, March 29, 2021.

"On the fiscal side, just because rates remain low and your borrowing capacity is there doesn't mean you can borrow unlimited amounts of money for any purpose," Okamoto said.

"We want people to spend resources prudently both to get through the pandemic and to make the proper investments to set themselves on a growth trajectory coming out of the crisis. But that requires being very selective and making sure that you're funding the projects with the highest economic rates of return."

Okamoto said a failure to be selective with these projects would invite a debt overhang, "and both the debt overhang or the financial vulnerabilities could invite risks to growth over the medium term."

UK

Sanjeev Gupta gearing up for war over steel empire: Liberty Steel tycoon enlists a 'barrage of lawyers' to defend business after lender's collapse

Gupta's GFG Alliance is holding emergency talks to secure new financing

Credit Suisse has petitioned a winding-up order on GFG's commodities trader

Gupta said lenders risked hurting their own interests by calling in loans

By ALEX LAWSON AND EMMA DUNKLEY, FINANCIAL MAIL ON SUNDAY

PUBLISHED: 4 April 2021

Industrial tycoon Sanjeev Gupta has drafted in a 'barrage' of lawyers to defend his steel empire as a crisis at its biggest lender threatens to engulf him.

Gupta's GFG Alliance, which owns Liberty Steel in the UK, is holding emergency talks to secure new financing and save 5,000 British jobs after the collapse of Greensill Capital.

Credit Suisse, the Swiss bank that provided $10billion in funding to Greensill, has petitioned a winding-up order on GFG's commodities trading business.

But Gupta – who last week admitted he owes billions – has delivered a pugilistic response, saying from his home in Dubai: 'We have our legal defences ready. There is a barrage of lawyers who are readying up all their guns to fight this off.'

Tough talk: Sanjeev Gupta said lenders risked hurting their own interests by calling in loans before the financing was complete

Gupta said lenders risked hurting their own interests by calling in loans before the financing was complete. He added: 'Damaging the business is not in the interest of anybody, especially not the lenders.

'What they are doing is not logical and the arguments were made to them very robustly that they are damaging their own stakeholders, their own recovery prospects.'

Supply chain finance firm Greensill, which counted former Prime Minister David Cameron as an adviser, fell into administration last month. Gupta has been scrambling to refinance the billions Liberty Steel owed Greensill.

Concerns have been raised that Gupta's sprawling empire is opaque and would be difficult to rescue in its current form.

But the Indian-born British businessman, educated at Trinity College Cambridge, said in an interview with The Weekend Australian newspaper: 'There is a lot of interest in refinancing, given the strength of our businesses and the strength of the market. But given the noise on top of that and the surrounding situation, things need to settle down and we need a little time to get that refinancing organised.'

He added: 'My UK steel initiative has always been a labour of love. The UK industry has been decimated over the last few decades. Every single plant I bought was closed or closing.'

Gupta's comments came as GFG prepares to reopen its UK steel plants this week after pausing production at some sites last month. He has publicly vowed plants will not close under his watch. 'It is my commitment to my people. I repeated that very clearly, that I would not let them down, they don't have to worry about their futures,' he said.

Gupta has pointed to a 14-year high in steel prices. But there are other pressures on the industry.


Exclusive research for The Mail on Sunday by UK Steel reveals that exports from Britain to the EU have plunged 34 per cent in the last three months, following Brexit and the introduction of new quotas.

Steel exports were just under 420,000 tons in the first quarter compared with an historic average of 630,000 tons.

Sources told this newspaper last week that the Government is ready to protect the business should it fall into insolvency, effectively ousting Gupta while a new owner is found.

Separately, it has emerged that Greensill Capital tried to tap up private equity giants for new funding last year. The firm, founded by Australian Lex Greensill in 2011, is understood to have held talks with firms including Apollo and Blackstone.

One source said Greensill was seeking new funds around the time the pandemic took hold, but the market had 'tightened up'.

But the source also said he did not feel Greensill Capital had sufficiently answered his questions over its operations and financing – and the source said his company took these responses as 'a warning signal to stay away'.

Greensill, facilitated speedy payment for suppliers – in exchange for a small fee. It came under pressure after its insurer, part of Tokio Marine, made the decision in July last year not to extend its cover. Then last month Credit Suisse froze $10billion of funds connected to Greensill.

Greensill was also on the hunt for investors last autumn to help bridge a path to a $7billion (£5billion) stock market flotation slated for the second half of this year.

Another private equity source said Greensill Capital was 'opaque' and that conversations about the capital raising were only 'very early stage'.

Greensill had also held talks this year with a subsidiary of Apollo about acquiring Greensill assets, which ultimately fell through.

Apollo, Blackstone and Greensill declined to comment.

Amazon admits the 'peeing in bottles thing' is real and promptly deflects blame

Amazon admits that its truck drivers do have a bathroom break problem.
IMAGE: DPA/PICTURE ALLIANCE VIA GETTY I

BY JENNIMAI NGUYEN

APRIL 4, 2021

After almost two weeks of saying "No, our workers definitely do NOT have to pee in bottles while at work!", Amazon has admitted that sometimes, its workers do have to pee in bottles.

The company's original claim was a sassy reply to U.S. Representative Mark Pocan on Twitter, who had tweeted criticism about Amazon calling itself "progressive" when it is famously anti-union and amidst workers' complaints about insufficient bathroom breaks.

On April 2, Amazon published a blog post apologizing to Pocan, and called its tweet reply an "own-goal," and saying "we're unhappy about it."

The blog post goes on to acknowledge that the tweet was incorrect because the company had not accounted for its driver population, who may have a hard time getting to a bathroom because of rural routes or closed public restrooms due to COVID-19.

While the company acknowledged that insufficient bathroom breaks are a problem for their drivers, it also emphasized that it's not just Amazon drivers. Rather, it's a "longstanding, industry-wide issue."

Firsthand accounts from Amazon workers, however, tell a different story. "We’re pressured to get these routes done before night time and having to find a restroom would mean driving an extra 10 minutes off path to find one," an unnamed Amazon worker told Vice. Another worker told Vice that there's incentive to cut corners and be faster, since the most productive drivers get more hours.

Amazon insists that workers at fulfillment centers have ample bathrooms available, and are allowed to step away from their work stations at any time. But again, posts on social media have shown otherwise.

As for Rep. Pocan's reaction to the apology, he's unimpressed. Pocan tweeted his response, asking Amazon to prioritize its workers dignity.

In terms of acknowledgment, Amazon admitting it was wrong and part of the "industry problem" is a step in the right direction, but the company also undermined its own admission by overtly trying to both minimize the scope of the problem and deflect some blame. So yes, the company has a long way to go before it can truly be as progressive as it claims. 

Schumer Says Senate Will Push for Marijuana Legalization, Hopes Biden's Views Will 'Evolve' - Report

  

U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) touts Senate Democrats legislative accomplishments as he holds a news conference at the U.S. Capitol in Washington, U.S., March 2

5, 2021.

by Kirill Kurevlev

After years of unsuccessful attempts, Schumer's home state of New York approved marijuana medical and recreational use for adults earlier this week. According to the media, more than 40% of Americans now live in states that have fully legalized marijuana.

Senate Majority Leader Democrat Chuck Schumer of New York has pledged to move ahead with legislation to legalize marijuana on a federal level, even if President Joe Biden opposes it, Politico reported on Saturday.

On the marijuana legalization issue, the president has become a notable outlier among Democrats. Schumer said in an interview with the outlet that he "will have an ongoing conversation" with Biden about cannabis legalization to "tell him how my views have evolved." 

However, Schumer is quoted in the report as claiming that Biden's hesitancy would not stop the Senate from acting to relax federal restrictions.

"I want to make my arguments to him, as many other advocates will,” Schumer stated. “But at some point we're going to move forward, period."

Although Schumer was originally opposed to federal marijuana legalization, his “thinking evolved,” and in 2018, he became “the first member of the Democratic leadership to come out in support of ending the federal prohibition.”

“When a few of the early states — Oregon and Colorado — wanted to legalize, all the opponents talked about the parade of horribles: Crime would go up. Drug use would go up. Everything bad would happen,” the Senate Democratic leader explained. 

"The legalization of states worked out remarkably well," the senator continued. "They were a great success. The parade of horribles never came about, and people got more freedom. And people in those states seem very happy.” 

© REUTERS / ERIN SCOTT

Hypocrisy? Kamala Harris Pushed For Marijuana Legalisation, But WH is Sacking Staffers Over Weed

According to The Hill's report, the campaign for federal cannabis legalization comes as Biden faces pressure to reverse his administration's employee policy on past drug use, which resulted in the firing of five staffers.

Last week, a coalition of 30 Democratic lawmakers reportedly signed a letter to Biden urging him to "clarify your employment suitability policies, remove past cannabis use as a potential disqualifier, and apply these policies with consistency and fairness."

According to a Gallup poll conducted in November 2020, 68% of Americans support legalization, the highest level ever reported by Gallup on the subject

New processing techniques make a Hubble image of the Veil Nebula more spectacular

Shane McGlaun - Apr 3, 2021 SLASHGEAR

Over the many years the Hubble Space Telescope has spent orbiting the Earth, it has had its share of issues. The space telescope has also taken some of the most spectacular images of the cosmos humans have ever seen. One of the most beautiful images Hubble has taken is of the Veil Nebula.

NASA originally shared the image seen above of the Veil Nebula in 2015. The image was recently treated to some new image processing techniques make it even more impressive. The incredibly detailed image of the nebula shows all of the delicate details of its cloud-like structure. The new image processing techniques revealed previously unseen details of the structure inside the nebula.

The Veil Nebula itself is a remnant from a supernova that is 2100 light-years from the Earth in the constellation Cygnus. Hubble is currently a joint project between NASA and the ESA. The ESA describes the new image as showing the nebula’s “delicate threads and filaments of ionized gas.”

The new post-processing method further enhances details of the emissions from doubly ionized oxygen (seen in blue colors), ionized hydrogen, and ionized nitrogen (seen in red). The image shows only a portion of the nebula that was once home to a huge star that exploded.

For those who want to see more detail, the ESA Hubble website has the full-size image available for download here. Scientists worldwide are looking forward to the next generation of space telescope that will offer an even greater ability to peer deep into the cosmos and will undoubtedly result in more incredible images for us to look at in the future.

Seriously ugly: here’s how Australia will look if the world heats by 3°C this century

March 30, 2021 

Imagine, for a moment, a different kind of Australia. One where bushfires on the catastrophic scale of Black Summer happen almost every year. One where 50℃ days in Sydney and Melbourne are common. Where storms and flooding have violently reshaped our coastlines, and unique ecosystems have been damaged beyond recognition – including the Great Barrier Reef, which no longer exists.

Frighteningly, this is not an imaginary future dystopia. It’s a scientific projection of Australia under 3℃ of global warming – a future we must both strenuously try to avoid, but also prepare for.

The sum of current commitments under the Paris climate accord puts Earth on track for 3℃ of warming this century. Research released today by the Australian Academy of Science explores this scenario in detail.

The report, which we co-authored with colleagues, lays out the potential damage to Australia. Unless the world changes course and dramatically curbs greenhouse gas emissions, this is how bad it could get.

A spotlight on the damage

Nations signed up to the Paris Agreement collectively aim to limit global warming to well below 2℃ this century and to pursue efforts to limit temperature increase to 1.5℃. But on current emissions-reduction pledges, global temperatures are expected to far exceed these goals, reaching 2.9℃ by 2100.

Australia is the driest inhabited continent, and already has a highly variable climate of “droughts and flooding rains”. This is why of all developed nations, Australia has been identified as one of the most vulnerable to climate change.

The damage is already evident. Since records began in 1910, Australia’s average surface temperature has warmed by 1.4℃, and its open ocean areas have warmed by 1℃. Extreme events – such as storms, droughts, bushfires, heatwaves and floods – are becoming more frequent and severe.

Today’s report brings together multiple lines of evidence such as computer modelling, observed changes and historical paleoclimate studies. It gives a picture of the damage that’s already occurred, and what Australia should expect next. It shines a spotlight on four sectors: ecosystems, food production, cities and towns, and health and well-being.

In all these areas, we found the impacts of climate change are profound and accelerating rapidly.

Read more: Yes, Australia is a land of flooding rains. But climate change could be making it worse

Perth residents at an evacuation centre during a bushfire in February this year. Such events will become more frequent under climate change. Richard Wainwright/AAP

1. Ecosystems

Australia’s natural resources are directly linked to our well-being, culture and economic prosperity. Warming and changes in climate have already eroded the services ecosystems provide, and affected thousands of species.

The problems extend to the ocean, which is steadily warming. Heat stress is bleaching and killing corals, and severely damaging crucial habitats such as kelp forests and seagrass meadows. As oceans absorb carbon dioxide (CO₂) from the atmosphere, seawater is reaching record acidity levels, harming marine food webs, fisheries and aquaculture.

At 3℃ of global warming by 2100, oceans are projected to absorb five times more heat than the observed amount accumulated since 1970. Being far more acidic than today, ocean oxygen levels will decline at ever-shallower depths, affecting the distribution and abundance of marine life everywhere. At 1.5-2℃ warming, the complete loss of coral reefs is very likely.

Read more: The oceans are changing too fast for marine life to keep up

Heat stress is killing corals and marine animal habitat. Shutterstock

Under 3℃ warming, global sea levels are projected to rise 40-80 centimetres, and by many more metres over coming centuries. Rising sea levels are already inundating low-lying coastal areas, and saltwater is intruding into freshwater wetlands. This leads to coastal erosion that amplifies storm impacts and affects both ecosystems and people.

Land and freshwater environments have been damaged by drought, fire, extreme heatwaves, invasive species and disease. An estimated 3 billion vertebrate animals were killed or displaced in the Black Summer bushfires. Some 24 million hectares burned, including 80% of the Blue Mountains World Heritage Area and 50% of Gondwana rainforests. At 3℃ of warming, the number of extreme fire days could double.

Some species are shifting to cooler latitudes or higher elevations. But most will struggle to keep up with the unprecedented rate of warming. Critical thresholds in many natural systems are likely to be exceeded as global warming reaches 1.5℃. At 2℃ and beyond, we’re likely to see the complete loss of coral reefs, and inundation of iconic ecosystems such as the World Heritage-listed Kakadu National Park.

At 3℃ of global warming, Australia’s present-day ecological systems would be unrecognisable. The first documented climate-related global extinction of a mammal, the Bramble Cay melomys from the Torres Strait, is highly unlikely to be the last. Climate change is predicted to increase extinction rates by several orders of magnitude.

Degradation of Australia’s unique ecosystems will harm the tourism and recreation industries, as well as our food security, health and culture.

There are ways to reduce the climate risk for ecosystems – many of which also benefit humans. For example, preserving and restoring mangroves protects our coasts from storms, increases carbon storage and retains fisheries habitat.

Read more: Click through the tragic stories of 119 species still struggling after Black Summer in this interactive (and how to help)

Climate change will accelerate species extinctions. Pictured: the critically endangered orange-bellied parrot. Shutterstock

2. Food production

Australian agriculture and food security already face significant risks from droughts, heatwaves, fires, floods and invasive species. At 2℃ or more of global warming, rainfall will decline and droughts in areas such as southeastern and southwestern Australia will intensify. This will reduce water availability for irrigated agriculture and increase water prices.

Heat stress affects livestock welfare, reproduction and production. Projected temperature and humidity changes suggest livestock will experience many more heat stress days each year. More frequent storms and heavy rainfall are likely to worsen erosion on grazing land and may lead to livestock loss from flooding.

Heat stress and reduced water availability will also make farms less profitable. A 3℃ global temperature increase would reduce yields of key crops by between 5% and 50%. Significant reductions are expected in oil seeds (35%), wheat (18%) and fruits and vegetables (14%).

Climate change also threatens forestry in hotter, drier regions such as southwestern Australia. There, the industry faces increased fire risks, changed rainfall patterns and growing pest populations. In cooler regions such as Tasmania and Gippsland, forestry production may increase as the climate warms. Existing plantations would change substantially under 3℃ warming.

As ocean waters warm, distributions and stock levels of commercial fish species are continuing to change. This will curb profitability. Many aquaculture fisheries may fundamentally change, relocate or cease to exist.

These changes may cause fisheries workers to suffer unemployment, mental health issues (potentially leading to suicides) and other problems. Strategic planning to create new business opportunities in these regions may reduce these risks.

Read more: Australia's farmers want more climate action – and they’re starting in their own (huge) backyards

Under climate change, drought will badly hurt farm profitability. Shutterstock

3. Cities and towns

Almost 90% of Australians live in cities and towns and will experience climate change in urban environments.

Under a sea level rise of 1 metre by the end of the century – a level considered plausible by federal officials – between 160,000 and 250,000 Australian properties and infrastructure are at risk of coastal flooding.

Strategies to manage the risk include less construction in high-risk areas, and protecting coastal land with sea walls, sand dunes and mangroves. But some coastal areas may have to be abandoned.

Extreme heat, bushfires and storms put strain on power stations and infrastructure. At the same time, more energy is needed for increased air conditioning use. Much of Australia’s electricity generation relies on ageing and unreliable coal-fired power stations. Extreme weather can also disrupt and damage the oil and gas industries. Diversifying energy sources and improving infrastructure will be important to ensure reliable energy supplies.

The insurance and financial sector is becoming increasingly aware of climate risk and exposure. Insurance firms face increased claims due to climate-related disasters including floods, cyclones and mega-fires. Under some scenarios, one in every 19 property owners face unaffordable insurance premiums by 2030. A 3℃ world would render many more properties and businesses uninsurable.

Cities and towns, however, can be part of the climate solution. High-density urban living leads to a lower per capita greenhouse gas emission “footprint”. Also, innovative solutions are easier to implement in urban environments.

Passive cooling techniques, such as incorporating more plants and street trees during planning, can reduce city temperatures. But these strategies may require changes to stormwater management and can take time to work.

Read more: When climate change and other emergencies threaten where we live, how will we manage our retreat?  

Extreme storms will continue to violently reshape our coastlines. David Moir/ AAP

4. Human health and well-being

A 3℃ world threatens human health, livelihoods and communities. The elderly, young, unwell, and those from disadvantaged socioeconomic backgrounds are at most risk.

Heatwaves on land and sea are becoming longer, more frequent and severe. For example, at 3℃ of global warming, heatwaves in Queensland would happen as often as seven times a year, lasting 16 days on average. These cause physiological heat stress and worsen existing medical conditions.

Bushfire-related health impacts are increasing, causing deaths and exacerbating pre-existing conditions such as heart and lung disease. Tragically, we saw this unfold during Black Summer. These extreme conditions will increase at 2℃ and further at 3℃, causing direct and indirect physical and mental health issues.

Under 3℃ warming, climate damage to businesses will likely to lead to increased unemployment and possibly higher suicide rates, mental health issues and health issues relating to heat stress.

At 3°C global warming, many locations in Australia would be very difficult to inhabit due to projected water shortages.

As weather patterns change, transmission of some infectious diseases, such as Ross River virus, will become more intense. “Tropical” diseases may spread to more temperate areas across Australia.

Strategies exist to help mitigate these effects. They include improving early warning systems for extreme weather events and boosting the climate resilience of health services. Nature-based solutions, such as increasing green spaces in urban areas, will also help.

Read more: How does bushfire smoke affect our health? 6 things you need to know

Air quality in Canberra was the worst in the world after the Black Summer fires. Lukas Coch/AAP
How to avoid catastrophe

The report acknowledges that limiting global temperatures to 1.5℃ this century is now extremely difficult. Achieving net-zero global emissions by 2050 is the absolute minimum required to to avoid the worst climate impacts.

Australia is well positioned to contribute to this global challenge. We have a well-developed industrial base, skilled workforce and vast sources of renewable energy.

But Australia must also pursue far more substantial emissions reduction. Under the Paris deal, we’ve pledged to reduce emissions by 26-28% between 2005 and 2030. Given the multiple and accelerating climate threats Australia faces, we must scale up this pledge. We must also display the international leadership and collaboration required to set Earth on a safer climate trajectory.

Our report recommends Australia immediately do the following:


join global leaders in increasing actions to urgently tackle and solve climate change


develop strategies to meet the challenges of extreme events that are increasing in intensity, frequency and scale


improve our understanding of climate impacts, including tipping points and the compounding effects of multiple stressors at global warming of 2℃ or more


systematically explore how food production and supply systems should prepare for climate change


better understand the impacts and risks of climate change for the health of Australians


introduce policies to deliver deep and rapid cuts in emissions across the economy


scale up the development and implementation of low- to zero-emissions technologies


review Australia’s capacity and flexibility to take up innovations and technology breakthroughs for transitioning to a low-emissions future


develop a better understanding of climate solutions through dialogue with Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples – particularly strategies that helped people manage Australian ecosystems for tens of thousands of years


continue to build adaptation strategies and greater commitment for meeting the challenges of change already in the climate system.

We don’t have much time to avert catastrophe. This decade must be transformational, and one where we choose a safer future.

The report upon which this article is based, The Risks to Australia of a 3°C Warmer World, was authored and reviewed by 21 experts.

Authors

Ove Hoegh-Guldberg
Professor, The University of Queensland

Ove Hoegh-Guldberg receives research funding from the Australian Research Council, the UNEP and WWF. HIs salary is paid for by the University of Queensland.

Lesley Hughes
Professor, Department of Biological Sciences, Macquarie University
Lesley Hughes has received funding from the Australian Research Council. She is a Councillor with the Climate Council of Australia, a Director of WWF-Australia, a member of the Wentworth Group of Concerned Scientists, and a member of the Climate Targets Panel.

MORE PARASITES STEAL OUR COMMONWEALTH
Total number of billionaires up 30% amid COVID-19 pandemic

Hannah Jackson 

Despite the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, the total number of billionaires in the world grew by an "unprecedented" amount in the last year, and the richest are getting richer.

That's according to the latest list compiled by business magazine Forbes analyzing the world's wealthiest people.

The magazine uses stock prices and exchange rates from March 5 to calculate the net worths of billionaires.

The Forbes report found the total number of billionaires grew to 2,755, with 660 more than a year ago.

A total of 493 were newly added to the list, Forbes reported.

Further, the report said 250 people who had fallen off the list in the past were re-added, and 86 per cent of the billionaires are more wealthy now than they were just 12 months ago.

At the top of the list, for a fourth year in a row is Amazon founder Jeff Bezos who is worth a reported $177 billion.

Elon Musk is now the second-richest billionaire, with a net worth of $151 billion.

Bill Gates sits in the third spot with a net worth of $124 billion, while Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg rounds out the top five with with a net worth of $97B.

No women are among the top 10, but Francoise Bettencourt Meyers, granddaughter of the founder of L'Oreal and the richest woman in the world, comes in at number 12.

She is reported to have a net worth of $73.6 billion.

Former U.S. President Donald Trump also made the list, sitting in the 1,299th spot with a reported net worth of $2.4 billion.

All together, the world's 2,755 billionaires are worth $13.1 trillion.

This number is up significantly from the $8 trillion they were worth together in 2020.

Only one Canadian made the top 100 billionaires. David Thomson and family, who control a media and publishing empire Thomson Reuters, sit in the 33rd spot with a net worth of $41.8 billion, according to Forbes.

The United States boasts the most billionaires at 724. China has the second most with 698.

The Forbes report draws a stark cntrast between the world's wealthiest, and those trying to make ends meet as the pandemic continues to wreak havoc across the world.

In fact, a poll conducted exclusively for Global News by Ipsos last month found that 35 per cent of 1,000 Canadians surveyed indicated that their overall financial situation had worsened over the past year amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

The survey found younger people were more likely to report their financial status had become worse.

Forty-two per cent of Canadians between the ages of 18 and 34 said their financial situation had worsened over the past year.

— With a file from Global News' Emerald Bensadoun

'We are all aviators': Australian air force replaces term 'airmen'

THE ORIGINAL NON GENDER TITLE

CANBERRA (Reuters) - Australian air force personnel will now be known as aviators rather than airmen, the force said on Thursday, in an apparent acknowledgement of the increasing diversity of its members

© Reuters/ISSEI KATO FILE PHOTO: Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison visits Tokyo

"We are all aviators," Australia's Chief of Air Force, Air Marshal Mel Hupfeld said. "In everything that we do, we are aviators first and foremost."

The Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF) statement did not explicitly credit the change in language to the increasing number of women in its ranks. Rather it said the service wanted to instil a stronger sense of identity.

Women make up more than 20% of the nearly 15,000 personnel in the RAAF, a 2019 report found, the highest female participation in any branch of the country's military. The air force aims to have women make up 25% of its members by 2023.

(Reporting by Colin Packham; Editing by Pravin Char)