Leaked EU Report Reveals Ambitious Renewables Agenda

By Tatiana Serova - May 09, 2021, 10:00 AM CDT

The European Commission intends to ask EU Member States to make an additional effort to increase their share of renewable energy in the power mix, according to a leaked draft of an official document revealed by Euractiv on May 4th. Brussels wants to upgrade its current 32% renewable energy target for 2030 to at least 38%, the document says.  By the same deadline, the Commission aims to have 55% less greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 levels, and a 32.5% improvement in energy efficiency. Hence, increasing the renewable energy target is logical as energy is one of the main contributors to GHG emissions on the continent. But Europe is already on the right path, as its energy-related CO2 emissions decreased by 8% during the first quarter of 2020 (compared to 2019 levels).

This revision comes as the European Commission is examining its Sustainable Investment Taxonomy, and is expected to come up with an updated version of the Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) by July 2021.

As renewable sources currently meet 20% of European energy needs, achieving the new target set by the Commission would mean doubling this proportion in only ten years. It currently has an installed solar capacity of 137 GW, of which 19 GW were added in 2020

However, this goal appears ambitious while some countries struggle with their current renewable energy targets. France, for example, has not succeeded in achieving its goal of 23% renewable electricity which it set in 2009. Instead, it displayed a modest 19%, mainly driven by hydroelectricity generation, and failing at making its offshore wind industry take off. 

Related: Texas Lawmakers Brace For A War On The Oil & Gas Sector
In January 2021, a report by the International Energy Agency and the French utility RTE, titled “Conditions and requirements for the technical feasibility of a power system with a high share of renewables in France towards 2050”, shook the French nuclear industry. It envisioned the possibility of a 100% renewable energy mix by 2050, throwing nuclear out of the game. 

Next to this, it is worth noting that EU countries present high discrepancies in terms of renewables potential. Denmark is leading the race with a massive wind industry, providing over 47% of its electricity in 2019. On the other hand, countries like Poland and Hungary are still very reliant on coal, and are rather planning to replace it by switching to natural gas, and nuclear energy. The latter displays higher capacity factors than renewables, and solves their intermittency issue. Following that intent, several Ministers of Eastern European countries wrote a letter in February 2021 calling for the European Commission not to discriminate against nuclear over renewables. 

An emphasis on transportation and heating sectors

Among the concrete options brought by the Commission for the achievement of the new target, there is an increase of clean energy use in the heating and cooling sectors: the policy options suggest that the share of renewables in those sectors should increase by 1,1 percentage point every year. An emphasis is also put on decarbonized transportation, based on the forecast of growing EV sales and the proliferation of biofuels. A system of certifications will be implemented to guarantee those fuels’ low carbon intensity, and more stringent rules will be imposed on the aviation sector. This last measure is only a continuation of a trend that has been going on for the past year, with companies such as Total actively investing into bio aviation fuels.  

Related: Oil And Gas Rig Count Climbs Amid Price Rally

Another bone of contention is the status of biomass in the Taxonomy, which currently draws a lot of criticism. In fact, wood biomass is a strategic energy resource for Nordic countries such as Sweden and Finland, which have been actively lobbying for looser criteria on its sustainability. Addressing that issue, the leaked document says it will consider implementing national caps on the use of stem wood. 

Finally, to facilitate the process of investment into renewables, the European Commission is also reconsidering the rules for corporate renewable PPA’s, according to Montel News reports. 

Cost-effectiveness and networks adaptation

This increase in targets was however deemed insufficient by renewable industry players. SolarPower Europe and Wind Europe told Euractiv that more could be done to enhance the European renewable competitiveness. 

The cost-effectiveness of this new ambition also remains questionable. In fact, a substantial adaptation of electricity networks will be required to provide an adequate response to the variability of renewable energy sources, and the EU has not yet provided detailed sources of funding. Europe will also have to develop a regional supply chain for battery manufacturing, of which components are mostly imported from carbon-intensive China. 

By Tatiana Serova for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

 

Big Oil Eyes Wave Of Buybacks After Blowout Earnings

By Alex Kimani - May 09, 2021

Crude oil futures have rallied to their highest finish in months, with WTI price climbing above $65 for the first time in two months after OPEC+ stuck with plans to gradually ease production curbs, signaling confidence in the demand outlook. The optimism has coincided with a breakout season for the S&P 500, with the Energy Sector (XLE) being particularly impressive.

Indeed, the fossil fuel sector is enjoying a rare blowout season.

The majority of companies in the energy sector have beat Wall Street earnings estimates, while more than 80% have managed to surpass revenue expectations.

With impressive bottom-line growth, many top energy names are returning more capital to shareholders in the form of share buybacks and dividends. Companies usually repurchase shares when they believe they are undervalued, a big positive for oil and gas bulls.

Here's a rundown of Big Oil's share buyback and dividend trends after the latest earnings season.

Share Buybacks:

#1. ConocoPhillips Last year, Houston, Texas-based shale producer ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP) earned itself accolades after announcing some of the deepest production cuts at a time when many shale companies were reluctant to lower production and relinquish market share. The company lowered its North America output by nearly 500,000 bpd, marking one of the biggest cuts by an American producer. This year, ConocoPhillips has kept drilling activity subdued and also kept a tight lid on capital expenditures.

Related: Texas Lawmakers Brace For A War On The Oil & Gas Sector

And those austerity measures are now paying off.

Conoco has become the first large U.S. independent oil producer to resume its share buyback program after suspending it during last year's oil crisis.

Conoco says it has resumed stock buybacks at an annualized rate of $1.5B, and also plans to sell off its Cenovus Energy stake in the current quarter and complete the sales by year-end 2022. Proceeds from the sale--valued at ~$2 billion--will be used to fund share buybacks.

COP stock is rallying again after Bank of America upgraded the shares to Buy from Neutral with a $67 price target, calling the company a "cash machine" with the potential for accelerated returns.

According to BofA analyst Doug Leggate, Conoco looks "poised to accelerate cash returns at an earlier and more significant pace than any 'pure-play' E&P or oil major." 

Leggate COP shares have pulled back to more attractive levels "but with a different macro outlook from when [Brent] oil peaked close to $70."

But best of all, the BofA analyst believes COP is highly exposed to a longer-term oil recovery.

But BofA is not the only Wall Street punter that's gushing about COP.

In a note to clients on Friday, Raymond James says the company's stock price is undervaluing the flood of cash the oil and gas company is poised to generate.

That's quite remarkable considering COP shares are up 39.3% in the year-to-date.

The bullish notes appear well-deserved. With WTI price in the mid-60s, ConocoPhillips would have little trouble generating copious amounts of free cash flows given the company's cash flow breakeven level of under $30/bbl.

Strong earnings

Like many companies in the U.S. shale patch, ConocoPhillips printed a strong Q1 2021 scorecard with stronger than expected earnings.

The company swung to Q1 GAAP earnings of $1B, or $0.75/share, from a year-ago loss of $1.7B, or $1.60/share. Revenues more than doubled to $10.56B from $4.81B a year earlier.

Q1 production, excluding Libya, climbed 16.4% Y/Y to 1.49M boe/day, a good 30% above the 1.14M boe/day output in Q4 2020. Total average realized price clocked in at $45.36/boe, much higher than the $33.21/boe realized in Q4 2020, thanks to the ongoing oil price recovery.

COP issued upbeat guidance, saying it expects Q2 production, excluding Libya, of 1.5M-1.54M boe/day due to seasonal turnarounds planned in Europe and Asia Pacific.

Conoco has also announced plans to reduce debt by $5B over the next five years, which really is gilding the lily considering its under-levered balance sheet.

Despite its acquisition of Concho Resources Inc. that gave the company a prime drilling position in the Permian Basin, COP says it is restraining future capital spending and has pledged to reinvest just 70% of its cash flow while returning the rest to shareholders through dividends and the share buybacks.

#2. BP Plc.

At a time when many oil companies are blaming the Texas Freeze for hampering their production targets, UK's leading oil and gas multinational BP Plc (NYSE:BP) has emerged as a winner from February's frigid weather.

BP has posted robust Q1 2021 earnings, with first-quarter underlying replacement cost profit, used as a proxy for net profit, coming in at $2.6 billion, well above a profit of $115 million in the fourth quarter and $791 million for the first quarter of 202 as well as Wall Street's expectations for a first-quarter profit of $1.4 billion.

Interestingly, BP revealed it profited big from the Texas Freeze, with management saying that its gas trading unit enjoyed an "exceptional" Q1, taking advantage of prices that skyrocketed 300-fold in some areas and helping to drive profit well above pre-pandemic levels.

"We were well-positioned for colder-than-normal weather in the U.S." as well as in Asia, CEO Bernard Looney has told Bloomberg.

"We have a very, very strong and long history of knowing how to manage these disruptions and doing well. And of course we had disruptions in the first quarter in Asia and the United States," CFO Murray Auchincloss has said.

So, what does BP plan to do with its new jackpot?

After reaching its net debt target of $35 billion a year earlier than expected, BP has now committed to $500 million in share buybacks in the second quarter. Related: Oil Markets Optimistic As Brent Flirts With $70

BP has previously said that reaching its net debt target would trigger share buybacks and that it remains committed to returning at least 60% of surplus cash flow in 2021 to investors.

BP generated surplus cash flow of $1.7 billion in the quarter, meaning more buybacks could be coming.

Dividend Hikes:

#1. Marathon Oil Corp.

Marathon Oil Corp. (NYSE:MRO) is one of the leading E&P companies and the owner of the nation's largest refining system, with approximately 2.9 million barrels per day of crude oil processing capacity across 13 refineries.

Marathon Oil has yet to report Q1 earnings but has reported some encouraging preliminary information on Q1 financial and operational estimates and also announced a good dividend hike.

Marathon Oil says Q1 production clocked in at 345K net boe/day with sales of 341K net boe/day. Q1 cash flow from operations totaled $610M-$630M, representing $10M-$20M of negative changes in working capital. Meanwhile, first-quarter unhedged realizations came in at an estimated at ~$55/bbl for oil; $24/bbl for natural gas liquids and $6.30/mcf for natural gas.

The best part: Marathon Oil has declared $0.04/share quarterly dividend payable June 10 and good for a 33.3% increase from the previous dividend of $0.03 per share. MRO stock now sports a forward dividend yield of 1.42%, suggesting there's room for further hikes.

Marathon Oil's close peer, Valero Energy Corp. (NYSE:VLO), sports a much higher yield of 5.30%. Valero has declared $0.98/share quarterly dividend, in line with the previous distribution and payable June 8.

Valero reported GAAP EPS of -$1.73, beating the consensus estimate by $0.12, while revenue of $20.8B (-5.9% Y/Y) beat by $1.23B.

#2. Equinor ASA

Norway's national oil company, Equinor ASA (NYSE:EQNR), delivered an all-around impressive report and its best quarterly results since 2014.

Adjusted earnings clocked in at $5.47 billion in the first quarter, a 167% Y/Y improvement compared to the same period in 2020; Adjusted earnings after tax were $2.66 billion up from $560 million, while revenue of $16.13B (+7.0% Y/Y) beat by $340M. Related: Russia Boosted Oil Production In April

According to company President and CEO, Anders Opedal, Equinor largely benefitted from recovering oil and gas prices, helping to improve net cash flow above $5 billion and reduce adjusted net debt ratio to below 25%.

The best part: Equinor increased its quarterly dividend by 25% to $01.5 per share to bring the forward yield to 2.86%.

#3. Royal Dutch Shell

Anglo-Dutch oil and gas supermajor Royal Dutch Shell Plc. (NYSE:RDS.A) returned disappointing results, missing on both top-and bottom-line expectations.

Q1 2021 earnings of $3.2 billion represented a 10.3% improvement over the same period a year earlier; however, GAAP EPS of $0.72 fell short of Wall Street's expectations by  $01.9. Shell's topline was equally disappointing, with revenue of $55.67B (-7.3% Y/Y) missing by $6.51B.

Nevertheless, Shell managed to raise its dividend by 4.2% to $0.347/ADS quarterly dividend, marking the second time in six months it has hiked the payout.

Shell also announced that it had managed to reduce net debt by more than $4 billion last quarter, progressing towards the $65 billion milestone to increase shareholder distributions.

#4. Chevron Corp.

At a time when the vast majority of oil and gas companies have been reporting blowout earnings, America's second-largest E&P company, Chevron Corp. (NYSE:CVX), was a notable laggard, missing on both top-and bottom-line expectations despite managing to swing to a profit.

Chevron reported Q1 2021 Q1 GAAP earnings dropped to $1.38B, or $0.72/share, from $3.6B, or $1.93/share, in the year-ago period. GAAP EPS of $0.72 was 0.16 below the consensus while revenue of $31.07B (+4.6% Y/Y) missed by $1.48B.

A big offender was Chevron's refining and chemical units, which reported a Q1 profit of just $5M vs. a $1.1B a year ago, which the company attributed to the February winter storm in Texas as well as the continuing impact of the pandemic.

Meanwhile, Q1 production of 3,121 was below the consensus of 3139 Mboe/d. 

Still, Chevron declared $1.34/share quarterly dividend, good for a 3.9% increase from the prior dividend of $1.29. The shares now sport an impressive 5.20% forward yield.

By Alex Kimani for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com:

• Big Oil Hikes Dividends After Blowout Quarter

U.S. watchdog to evaluate Pentagon’s response to UFO reports

By Josh K. Elliott Global News
Posted May 6, 2021

News: Pentagon confirms leaked footage of ‘pyramid-shaped’ UFOs is real

WATCH: Recently leaked video of flashing, triangle-shaped objects that flew over a U.S. warship is real, the Pentagon said, after UFO investigators released the clip and several other puzzling photos online. – Apr 14, 2021

The watchdog for the U.S. Department of Defense is evaluating the Pentagon’s response to reports of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAPs), the government term for UFOs.

Randolph R. Stone, the assistant inspector general for evaluations, announced the UFO-related probe in a memo published on the Pentagon’s website Monday, less than a month after leaked U.S. navy footage showed “pyramid-shaped” UFOs buzzing a warship. The Pentagon confirmed that the footage is authentic, but did not provide an explanation for what it shows.

READ MORE: Leaked footage of ‘pyramid-shaped’ UFOs is real, Pentagon says

The new watchdog probe will “determine the extent to which the DoD has taken actions regarding Unidentified Aerial Phenomena,” Stone wrote in the memo. “We may revise the objective as the evaluation proceeds, and we will consider suggestions from management for additional or revised objectives.”

Stone added that the investigation will begin sometime this month, and will touch on many different offices within the DoD, including the Office of the Secretary of Defense. It’s unclear when the probe will conclude or when the results will be made public.

The DoD office of the inspector general is an independent, objective watchdog that seeks to ensure ethical conduct and effectiveness in the department. It also monitors the DoD for fraud, waste and abuse, according to its mission statement.

0:21Pilot claims UFO spotted while flying over ArizonaPilot claims UFO spotted while flying over Arizona – Mar 29, 2018

Although scant on details, the announcement is the latest in a steady drip of UAP-related material from the U.S. military in recent years. Leaked videos and declassified documents have been spilling out into public view on a regular basis since approximately 2017, when a bombshell New York Times report revealed that the U.S. government had secretly been investigating UFO reports for years.

READ MORE: The CIA released thousands of UFO documents online. Here’s how to read them

UFOs have been a taboo subject for decades, but U.S. military officials have taken a more open attitude toward the unexplained incidents in recent years. They’ve confirmed some UFO videos, declassified others and generally encouraged military members to report any encounter due to the potential risk it poses.

“This is all about frequent incursions into our training ranges by UAPs,” Joe Gradisher, spokesperson for the deputy chief of naval operations for information warfare, told CNN in 2019. “Those incursions present a safety hazard to the safe flight of our aviators and security of our operations.”

The Canadian military has also been logging UFO sightings by airline pilots, according to a report in Vice News. Many of those sightings have also been logged in Transport Canada’s Civil Aviation Daily Occurrence Report System (CADORS), though Canadian officials have not been as open about the topic as their American counterparts.

1:16 American Airlines flight has close encounter with UFO – Feb 25, 2021

The Pentagon officially started paying more attention to UFOs last August, when it announced a UAP Task Force to “detect, analyze and catalogue UAPs that could potentially pose a threat to U.S. national security.”

These developments have added fuel to speculation that the UFOs might be alien visitors. However, these phenomena remain unidentified, and it’s possible that a terrestrial actor — such as China or Russia — could be responsible for such sightings.

OR THE USA

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence is scheduled to deliver a trove of unclassified reports about UAPs to Congress next month, as part of a mandate included in the U.S. government’s COVID-19 relief bill.

A real-life 'Unicorn' was saved in Australia

Nida Omar
Digital Reporter

•  

Tuesday, April 16th 2019, 11:37 am -Real-life unicorns are actually a thing.

 

Image: Susan Cipriano, Creative Commons

You might think that unicorns are just mythical creatures that exist solely in books, movies and, Starbucks beverages but that’s not the case.

A lucky family in Australia has what might be the closest thing to a real-life unicorn in their backyard.

An Australian sheep managed to evade slaughter because of the unicorn-styled horn in the middle of his head.

Michael Foster, a stock agent from Southern Australia, said he was checking out a stock of sheep near his home town in Burra when he discovered the unique animal.

The sheep, dubbed Joey, stood out because of the sole horn across its head, that gives it the appearance of a unicorn.

"I thought it might have been a joke to start with, but I thought, 'yeah it looks like a unicorn,'" Foster told 7News Adelaide.

Reports say the sheep’s appearance is due to one of his horns not fully developing.

When he found out that the one-horned fellow was going to be sold, Foster decided to trade it for a two-pack of beer.

Foster told 7News that he’s going to make Joey famous.

“We’ll break him in, take him to shows and pageants, and who knows where we can go, maybe Hollywood,” he told 7News.

Joey isn’t the first time a ‘unicorn sheep’ was discovered.

In 2017, farmers in Iceland found that a sheep from their livestock resembled the mythical creature. The sheep, which was named ‘einhyrningur’ which is "unicorn" in Icelandic, had its two horns fused together, giving it the appearance of one big horn.

The unusual animal "always looks slightly surprised or sad in expression," the farmers told the BBC.

The farmers credit their unicorn to a “weird sort of geological mutation that causes the horns to grow in such an unusual way.”

While it’s a rare occurrence for animals in the wild to have one horn naturally, there are cases where humans have played a hand in ‘making’ unicorns.

In 2016, a 16-year-old sheep from Bristol, England was dubbed a unicorn after a schoolyard accident left her with one horn.

Children had been playing with the animal named Peanut on a school field trip to a farm when they snapped off her horn by accident.

Fortunately for Peanut, she wasn’t in any pain, and she ended becoming a star attraction at the Hartcliffe Community Farm in Bristol.

ALSO SEE CAW CHURCH OF ALL WORLDS UNICORN CIRCA 1980'S

When Unicorns Walked The Earth - CamTrader

https://camtrader.ca/when-unicorns-walked-the-earth

The next time someone equates a near-impossible feat to the work of “magic and unicorns” hit them with this little party fact—in the 1980s, unicorns actually walked the earth. Well, sort of… Oberon Zell—

MUTUAL AID

Feral horses, donkeys dig desert holes to hydrate biodiversity

Nathan Howes 

WEATHER NETWORK

When it comes to finding water and staying hydrated in desert environments, animals will take all the help they can get. This includes from other wildlife, even ones that pose threats to natural ecosystems.

Researchers have found that feral donkeys and horses have been digging equid wells in search of water, not only for themselves, but for other species, too. The findings of the study were recently published in Science.

SEE ALSO: Ontario officials watch invasive pig numbers so they don't go wild

The study found that equid-dug wells increased water availability and were used by more than 57 other species, including many birds, other herbivores such as mule deer and mountain lions. As well, the abandoned holes decreased distance between water sources and increased germination in critical riparian tree species.

On average, it was discovered that the number of species was 51 per cent higher at the wells than what was observed in nearby dry areas during the same time periods.

© Provided by The Weather Network

Wild horse. (Erick Lundgren).

This is despite the fact the two feral species are believed to be a threat to biodiversity and have been subject to widespread eradication and control programs in Australia, for example.
UP TO TWO-METRE WELLS BUILT TO FIND WATER

In North America deserts, the feral animals were responsible for creating wells up to two metres in depth in order to access groundwater. It was noted in the study that most other equids and all elephant species dig wells, too. The equids increased the density of water features and was the only source of water at times.

"Vertebrate richness and activity were higher at equid wells than at adjacent dry sites, and by mimicking flood disturbance, equid wells became nurseries for riparian trees," the study said. "Our results suggest that equids, even those that are introduced or feral, are able to buffer water availability, which may increase resilience to ongoing human-caused aridification.

In the review, the authors stated that water is the main resource in dryland ecosystems, in limited supply. It determined species composition, food web structure and vegetation dynamics.

© Provided by The Weather Network

Feral donkey. (Erick Lundgren)

"At one fully intermittent stream that lost all background water, equid wells provided 100 per cent of surface water. Even at sites [that] remained perennial (background water retained at headwater springs), wells provided up to 74 per cent of surface water by accessing the water table in dry reaches," the study outlined.

As part of the research, the team surveyed four Sonoran Desert groundwater-fed streams in Arizona every 2-4 weeks over three summers. Equid wells were "particularly important" to supplying water in midsummer as temperatures increased and water tables receded.

"It’s a very hot, dry desert and you’ll get these pretty magical spots where suddenly there is surface water," said Erick Lundgren, a field ecologist at Denmark's Aarhus University and one of the study's co-authors, in an interview with NewScientist.

The well-digging also had a positive influence on vegetation. For example, on a dammed perennial Sonoran Desert river, several riparian trees were uncovered in abandoned equid wells. The trees are part of a small-seeded, fast-growing, flood-adapted functional group, whose germination requires moist layers without competing vegetation.

Thumbnails courtesy of Erick Lundgren.

Mutual Aid: A Factor of Evolution, Peter Kropotkin 1902

https://www.marxists.org › reference › archive › mutual...

Peter Kropotkin 1902. Mutual Aid: A Factor of Evolution. Source: Anarchy Archives. Proofed: Zdravko Saveski, 2021. Contents. Introduction · Chapter 1: Mutua

Will Canada have made at home COVID-19 booster vaccines in 2021? Expert says likely not

Hannah Jackson  
GLOBAL NEWS

As officials work to vaccinate the population against COVID-19, experts have warned that the virus could become endemic, meaning booster shots are likely going to be required to ensure long-term protection from the coronavirus.

© Courtesy: CHUM 

Individual receiving a COVID-19 vaccine

Currently, all of Canada's COVID-19 vaccines are coming from abroad, which means Canada has been at the mercy of a competitive global market and delays from manufacturers have impacted Canada's ability to get shots into arms.

However, the federal government says it is also working to ramp-up Canada's domestic vaccine manufacturing capacity.

Read more: Canada will have received 6.4M AstraZeneca COVID-19 doses by June’s end, official says

In February, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced his government had signed a deal with Maryland-based vaccine development company Novavax, to produce it's COVID-19 vaccine candidate at the National Research Centre's Royalmount Biologics Manufacturing Centre in Quebec.

During the announcement, Trudeau said Canada needs "as much domestic capacity for vaccine production, as possible."

Will Canada have made-in-Canada vaccines from the NRC's Royalmount facility by the time the population needs a COVID-19 booster shot?

Here's a closer look at what's going on.

Construction 'on track'

In an email to Global News on Tuesday, a spokesperson for the NRC said construction for the Biologics Manufacturing Centre is happening "at an accelerated rate" and "is on track and proceeding very well."

"Construction is on schedule to be completed by end of July 2021," the email read. "Generally a new Good Manufacuting Practices facility can take two years or more to complete."

Video: COVID-19 vaccine eligibility opening rapidly in Peterborough and across Ontario

The agency added that once construction is complete, "several steps will be required before actual vaccine production can begin."

These steps include establishing a process to make the specific vaccine in the facility and ensuring the process will result in a specific vaccine with "precisely the same quality in every dose."

It will then need approval from Health Canada.

Meanwhile, according to the Health Canada website, Novavax submitted an application for its COVID-19 vaccine in late January, and it remains "under review."

The NRC said it is working "closely" with Novavax to "prepare for the production of the vaccine" at the centre, "including on the technology transfer, which is underway."

"Engineering runs are targeted for December 2021 and production runs will follow once the vaccine candidate, the facility, and the production process receive the required Health Canada approvals."

The NRC said once complete and certified, the centre will have a production capacity of two million doses of a vaccine per month.

Read more: ‘No A, B list of COVID vaccines’: Experts weigh in on NACI’s ‘mixed messages’

"The actual number of doses will vary dependin on the specific vaccine, the manufacturing platform and processes, as well as its yield," the email said.
Is the timeline plausible?

Canada's first COVID-19 shots were administered in December of 2020. Researchers suggest those who receive a vaccine will likely need a booster in approximately one year.

Asked if he thinks Canadians can expect to see made-at-home booster shots at the end of this year, Robert Van Exan, president and owner of Immunization Policy and Knowledge Translation said he doesn't think so.

He said the money from the government is to increase the size and capacity at the Royalmount facility to accomodate Novavax.

"They were hoping that it wouldn't take as long because they had part of that facility already built and they would go into hyperdrive to do what they needed to do," he said. "Could it be done by 2022? Maybe, but I think you're pushing it."

Ultimately Van Exan, who has 40 years expeience working in the vaccine industry in Canada, said "later in 2022" is likely when we will see vaccines ready for use from the Royalmount facility.

While late 2020 seems far away, Van Exan said building a manufacturing facility from scratch is an even longer process which could take around five years to complete.

In part, he said, because it's a massively expensive undertaking. But also because there is specialized infrastructure that needs to be built in to the building.

Van Exan said this includes things like HEPA filters, a steam generation plant, a facility that produces sterile water, centrifuges, chromatography equipment and more.

"Then, once the equipment is all in there ... it would take a good six months to validate that equipment," he said. "Because you have to prove that everything in that facility is validated and running exactly as it should in a vaccine plant."
Moving forward

Van Exan said he "wouldn't even be worrying about making a vaccine in Canada for this first round of inoculations and maybe not even for the boosters."

"I would focus on what am I going to do in the future, because this is going to happen again," he said of the pandemic.

He said what Canada should be focussing on is building 'surge capacity.'

Van Exan said while Canada has the capacity to make vaccines, it was all being used to create shots that are equally important and needed.

He pointed to Sanofi which produces vaccines for childhood vaccines for Canada, the U.S. and other parts of the world.

Read more: Canada ‘very closely’ watching data on mixing and matching COVID-19 vaccines

"You can't stop doing those immunization tests because you've got a pandemic or else you'll have another pandemic on your hands," he explained. "So what you really need is what we would call surge capacity or extra capacity on top of what you're already doing."

One way to do this, Van Exan explained is by creating a year or two's worth of stockpile of the vaccines routinely made at a plant. That way if it needs to pivot to create, for example, a COVID-19 vaccine, there would still be a comfortable supply of the other shots.

Another option, he said, is to build large-scale fill and pack departments onto existing vaccine manufacturing facilities, Canada could buy bulk vaccines from the U.S. or elsewhere and package them for distrobution in the country.

Another way to ramp up surge capacity, Van Exan said, is to build "shell facilities."

"One outfit in Switzerland came up with the idea of building vaccine factories, building the shell," he said. "Building them with all of the steam and the air systems and everything that you would need complete in them, but don't put any machinery in them."

Video: Biden outlines updated U.S. COVID-19 vaccination plan, includes expanding rollout to children

He said the amount of time it would take to get one of the shell facilities up and running in a pandemic would be "somewhere between six to 12 months."

"This could be done when you're doing your clinical (vaccine) trials," he said.

In a previous interview with Global News, Dr. Isaac Bogoch, an infectious diseases faculty member at the University of Toronto said Canada’s lack of domestic vaccine manufacturing capability has been “highlighted as a health security threat."

“And it is,” he continued. “But I don’t think that’s lost on the Canadian government and the local governments.”

He said the federal government's investment in boosting domestic vaccine production is a "really good start," but added that it will take "sustained investment over time" in both the manufacturing and innovation side of things.

“I don’t think you’re going to flip a switch overnight and all of a sudden re-create your vaccine creation and manufacturing capability.” he said.
Procuring boosters

If Canada won't have domestic vaccine manufacturing capacity in time to produce COVID-19 vaccine boosters, where will the country's supply come from?

In March, Health Canada confirmed to Global News that work is "underway to define our future booster needs, both in terms of quantities and the vaccine technologies on which to focus."

Read more: Feds ‘in discussions’ to secure COVID-19 booster, variant shots: Health Canada

"Canada is in discussions with vaccine developers regarding plans for early and secure access to booster and variant vaccines when they become available," the agency said in an emailed statement.

The federal government has also pledged $173 million to help Canadian Biotech company Medicago develop a vaccine and build a plant in which to produce it.

The company's website, says it's COVID-19 vaccine is currently in phase 3 clinical trials.

The website said "before launching a vaccine, it is essential to test its safety and efficacy during clinical trials."

"While standard vaccine development timelines can take five to 20 years, we plan to submit a COVID-19 vaccine to health authorities for regulatory reviews in 2021," the company's website reads.

To date, more than 14.2 million doses of the approved COVID-19 vaccines have been administered across Canada.

According to COVID-19 Tracker Canada, 34.4 per cent of Canadians have now received at least one dose.