COMMODITY SUPER CYCLE
Canadian farmers have spring in their step from strongest commodity prices in years

TORONTO — Farmers like Andre Harpe have a little extra spring in their steps these days as agriculture crops fetch their highest prices in years, joining a boom in commodities such as lumber and base metals that is good news for the Canadian economy.

 Provided by The Canadian Press

"Life is never perfect but I think it is a good time to be a farmer," 56-year-old Harpe said during a break from seeding his 5,000-acre farm in Alberta's Peace Region.

The canola and malt barley farmer says canola prices have about doubled from a year ago.

Growing demand as the global economy recovers from the COVID-19 pandemic, coupled with supply shortages from droughts in some areas of the world, have created the chance for Canadian farmers to earn more money in a cyclical industry.

Depending on the crop, agriculture prices have increased between 10 and 75 per cent from last year, says Brandan Leslie, manager of policy and government relations for the Grain Growers of Canada.

"On the heels of a decade of fairly flat to downward prices it's pretty good news for Canadian farmers," he said in an interview, pointing to the threat of drought this summer in Western Canada and the U.S. Midwest.

"Until it's achieved and the grain is in the bin, the high prices don't mean much but certainly a real opportunity I would say for future profitability for farmers."

Prices started to increase about 12 to 18 months ago, then underwent a big jump in 2021.

Canola recently hit a 13-year peak after stubbornly low prices, gaining 52 per cent year-to-date. Corn has surged 50 per cent in the past four months to reach its highest level since 2012, soybean prices are returning to levels not seen since 2013-2014 and wheat prices are the best since 2012.

"All of the benchmark crop prices are back to the highest they've been since that very severe drought that they had in the Midwest back in 2011-2012," said Aaron Goertzen, senior economist for the Bank of Montreal.

The current price environment comes after five or six years of strong overall growing conditions that produced solid harvests but low prices that created stress, especially for U.S. farmers.

The low Canadian dollar helped to offset some of the pressure on domestic farmers.

Many commodities prices collapsed at the start of the pandemic but crops performed better than oil and metals since people still needed to eat, even when manufacturing was at a standstill.

The big exception was corn, which was affected by reduced fuel consumption because of its use to produce ethanol that's mixed with gasoline. Prices for the corn-based fuel derivative are up 63 per cent in 2021, mirroring a recovery in gas prices.

China is always a driver of commodity demand but the world's second-largest economy has taken a renewed interest in feeder crops after purchases were hurt when about 30 per cent of its hog herd was culled in response to a mass outbreak of African swine fever starting in 2018.

China has significantly increased its purchases of U.S. soybeans since a boycott during trade tensions under former president Donald Trump. China is the biggest consumer of soybeans, accounting for about 60 per cent of global sales.

"As that herd is now coming back, China's increasingly buying feed products on global markets and of course now with the trade war also over, it's buying them also from the U.S. and so that's been supportive of pricing as well," said Goertzen.

Strong prices allow farmers to invest more on infrastructure and equipment to improve output, said Brian Innes, executive director of Soy Canada.

"We're seeing right now a lot more optimism for farmers who are in their fields right now planting this year's crop," he said from Ottawa.

Strong prices allow farmers like Harpe to invest in new equipment and technology that's going to help the economy and create spinoff employment.

He's seeding an extra 100 acres of land that weren't previously in production to take advantage of the higher prices, and says others are doing the same.

High commodity prices are positive for Canada's economy, stock market and the loonie, says Avery Shenfeld, chief economist at CIBC.

Even though oil prices aren't high by historic standards, North American benchmark West Texas intermediate is up 32 per cent so far in 2021, while other key exports such as lumber and forest products and some metals are particularly strong.

"We're getting more Canadian dollars for each tonne of lumber or grain and that creates more income in the country that helps power our recovery," he said.

Lumber prices are up 85 per cent in 2021 on robust U.S. housing construction and renovations. Copper is up 34 per cent, iron ore 45 per cent, steel 40 per cent, aluminum 24 per cent, lithium 91 per cent, cobalt 39 per cent and tin 45 per cent.

"We're an exporter of raw materials, a 'hewer of wood and drawer of water' as they historically have said, so it's a plus for Canada when we're getting more for those commodities."

The downside of higher commodity prices is its contribution to inflation — a particularly worrying concern for stock markets — some of which will show up in food prices as extra costs are passed along to consumers.

Economists expect commodity prices will cool off over the next year, not because the global economy will have slowed but because producers who have underinvested in the last few years will have time to address supply disruptions and crank up production.

Ultimately, even elevated crop prices may not mean much to farmers who can't control their biggest threat: Mother Nature.

"Huge parts of Western Canada are pretty dry right now," said Harpe, a third-generation farmer. "Just because prices are good, we still need to get an average crop to realize those prices."

This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 16, 2021.

Ross Marowits, The Canadian Press

Are We Witnessing the Start of a New Commodities Supercycle?

Mines were once the beating heart of eastern Ukraine. Now they are ticking time bomb.

Veronika Melkozerova and Oksana Parafeniuk NBC

TORETSK, Ukraine — A rusty winch slowly raises the elevator nearly 4,000 feet from the depths of the Tsentralna coal mine in Toretsk, a city of 67,000 people in the Donbas, an industrial region in eastern Ukraine.

© Provided by NBC News

As the giant cage reaches the top of the shaft, dozens of lights appear from the darkness, shining from helmets and flashlights as the miners, covered in black dust, step off and head to the showers, their workday finally over. On their way, they nod to their colleagues starting the day shift, who are waiting to make the descent.

During the Soviet era, the Donbas — short for Donetsk Basin — was a crucially important hub for heavy industry. Tens of thousands of people worked in the more than 200 coal mines that operated across the region. BROUGHT IN BY RUSSIA AS PART OF ITS RUSSIFICATION OF UKRAINE

The mines, once the beating heart of the region, where giant mountains of metal waste known as slag still dot the landscape, now represent a looming environmental catastrophe.

Across the Donbas, neglected and abandoned mines are filling with toxic groundwater, environmentalists warn. The water, filled with heavy metals and other pollutants, threatens to contaminate the drinking water from rivers and wells in the area, as well as the surrounding soil, making the land unfit for farming. Meanwhile, dangerous methane gas from the mines is being pushed to the surface, threatening to cause earthquakes and explosions.

© Oksana Parafeniuk Image: Miners wait for the elevator that will take them for the 6-hour shift underground at the Tsentralna coal mine in Toretsk, Donetsk region, Ukraine (Oksana Parafeniuk / for NBC News)

Vasyl Chynchyk, the head of Toretsk’s Civil-Military Administration, told NBC News that out of the seven mines that once surrounded the city, only two, the Tsentralna and the Toretska mines, are still operational — the last vestiges of the area’s once-thriving industry.

To prevent disaster, local authorities have had to continually pump water out of the mines.

“If we drown, Tsentralna will drown after us,” said Yuriy Vlasov, an engineer at the decommissioned Nova mine, which now serves as a pumping station. After that, toxic water will flow into the Kryvyi Torets River and the Siverskyi Donets River, “where the whole Donbas drinks,” he said.

“Our only option is to keep pumping the water out.”

A constant battle

The situation is compounded by the Donbas’ history of conflict and economic calamity.

In recent decades, many of the mines in the Donbas have shut down, sinking the region into economic depression. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2014 brought even more devastation. More than 14,000 people have died in the ensuing conflict, according to the United Nations. In April, a Russian troop buildup near the Ukrainian border raised tensions once again.

“Businesses do not rush to invest money in a region affected by war,” Chynchyk said.

The Ukrainian government has lost control of dozens of coal mines in the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions. Eighty-eight out of 121 mines currently in existence in the Donbas are now controlled by Russian-backed separatists, according to Ukraine’s Energy Ministry.

© Oksana Parafeniuk Image: The train track leading to the Tsentralna mine in Toretsk, (Oksana Parafeniuk / for NBC News)

Deputy Prime Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, who is also the minister for the Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories of Ukraine, and Leonid Kravchuk, the first president of Ukraine and the head of the Ukrainian delegation to the Trilateral Contact Group in Minsk, told the United Nations in February that separatist groups are closing a number of those mines without the necessary preparations to make them safe. The Trilateral Contact Group is working to facilitate a resolution to the conflict in the region.

“You can’t just close a mine and forget about it, because the risks are too high,” said Yevhen Yakovlev, a hydrogeologist who works at the natural resources department of the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine. “Mine waters will rise, pollute the drinking water and destroy the soil.”

Serhiy Pylypets, a miner at the Tsentralna mine, said that battling water is a constant part of the job. The deeper that miners dig, the more water comes in through open shafts and from underground rivers and other water sources.

Because of this, the process of closing a mine typically requires years of preparation. And even after mining operations cease, water from the decommissioned mine must still be continually pumped out.

In Donetsk, the press service for the area’s separatist-led coal and energy ministry said that it had closed 20 mines since 2015, 18 of which it said had been destroyed during attacks by the Ukrainian army.

“There is no problem with the flooded mines. We have been working to pump water out of the mines and construct new pumping stations,” the press service said.

Nazar Voloshyn, head of the Joint Forces Operation of the Ukrainian Army, said that the Ukrainian army has never attacked civil infrastructure in the Donbas.

On the front lines in Ukraine as Russia tests Biden’s foreign policy

Ukrainian experts dispute the assertion that the mines in separatist-controlled regions are being handled appropriately. They say separatists have stopped pumping water out of at least a dozen mines and have not allowed them access to the sites to monitor the situation.

“According to our measurements of the water levels in the region, the pumping stations there [in occupied parts of the Donbas] are out of order,” said Viktor Yermakov, an environmental scientist and a member of the Trilateral Contact Group.

“The governing body that rules over the territories must keep the pumping operations under control.”
Danger underground

Although experts predict that the worst environmental effects may not occur for another five to 10 years, the first signs of a possible catastrophe have already been spotted in the Donbas.

In 2018, water from two flooded mines in the occupied part of Luhansk province broke into the nearby Zolote mine, flooding it as well, according to the Ukrainian Ministry for the Reintegration of the Temporarily Occupied Territories. Since then, coal extraction there has been halted.

The following year, residents of Makiivka, a coal-mining city in the occupied part of Donetsk province, complained about a series of tremors shaking the area. Mykhailo Volynets, the head of Ukraine’s Independent Trade Union of Miners, told Ukrainian media at the time that separatists had failed to properly close the mines in the area, which made the ground above the mining tunnels unstable.

And in 2020, a series of gas explosions occurred in the basements of residential buildings in the Luhansk region. The explosions were caused by mine waters pushing methane gas to the surface, according to Pavlo Lysyansky, the government’s human rights watchdog overseeing the occupied territories.

© Oksana Parafeniuk Image: A pipe depositing water from a mine on the slag mountains, which consist of solid waste remaining after coal mining in Toretsk (Oksana Parafeniuk / for NBC News)

Yermakov, the scientist, said one mine in the occupied area of Donetsk province is of particular concern: the Yunkom mine, which he named one of the most dangerous in the region.

In 1979, Soviet authorities conducted a controlled nuclear detonation inside the mine, leaving a potentially radioactive capsule some 3,000 feet underground.

The mine was closed in 2002, but pumping stations continued to keep the mine free of water.

A 2017 report by the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe noted that water drainage operations at Yunkom and more than two dozen other mines in the Donetsk region had been disrupted during the conflict in eastern Ukraine. And in 2018, the separatist-led People’s Council of Donetsk ruled that the Yunkom mine would be flooded, due to a lack of financing needed to continue pumping the waters out.

Yermakov said this decision put the whole region in danger of radioactive contamination.

The press service for the area’s separatist-led coal and energy ministry told NBC News that a new underground pumping station at Yunkom is under construction.

But former President Kravchuk told the U.N. in February that the damage from Yunkom may already be done.

“The radiation may have already infiltrated the drinking waters of the region,” he said. “The Donbas is on the verge of environmental disaster, caused not only by war, but also by environmental pollution.”
A delicate balance

In Toretsk, the miners at the Tsentralna mine fill plastic bottles with filtered water — not only to drink during their shift, but also to take home. Local residents buy bottled water from the stores. Only the bravest dare to drink water from the tap, people joke.

For most residents, however, the potential for environmental catastrophe is not the most pressing concern.

Occupied by Russian-backed separatists in 2014, then retaken by the Ukrainian army, the city bears the scars of the long-simmering conflict. The local council building was destroyed in the fighting, and many other buildings were damaged. The reality of war is ever present — Ukrainian soldiers have set up a base on the site of one of the closed mines on the outskirts of the city.

© Oksana Parafeniuk Image: Local residents walk near the former city council building, which was destroyed years ago during the fighting in Toretsk. (Oksana Parafeniuk / for NBC News)

The Ukrainian government has big plans for the region. By 2030, it plans to close most of the remaining coal mines as part of a transition to green energy.

Miners worry about what that will mean for their jobs and families, however. “This city will die without the mine,” said Dmytro Bondar, a miner who works at the Tsentralna mine.

Environmentalists also worry that the government won’t invest in infrastructure that can better control water levels within the mines and ensure that groundwater and rivers remain uncontaminated.

“In other countries, like Germany or England, the government constructed special hydraulic systems aimed to keep the mine waters at 250-350 meters (820-1,150 feet) forever,” Yakovlev said.

© Oksana Parafeniuk Image: Miners leave the elevator from their shift underground at the Tsentralna coal mine in Toretsk, Donetsk region, Ukraine (Oksana Parafeniuk / for NBC News)

Experts in the region remain on high alert. According to Mykola Kiva, technical director of the Toretskvugillya state coal managing company, if the pumps at the Nova mine stop operating, water could begin to flood the Tsentralna mine in a matter of hours. It’s a delicate balance, one that could easily be upset in this volatile region.

“For now, the Nova mine is coping with the waters and protecting the nearby Tsentralna mine from possible flooding,” said Yuriy Yevsikov, a former coal miner who now serves as deputy head of the Toretsk Civil-Military Administration.

“But this is nature, it can’t be predicted.”

ANOTHER TOXIC TRAIN
Train derails, leaks hydrochloric acid in Minnesota

Duration: 00:54 

28 cars in a 50-car-long train derailed in southern Minnesota on Saturday afternoon. Some of the cars were carrying hydrochloric acid, a chemical that can be hazardous if inhaled.

THE INSPECTOR IS NOT WEARING HAZMAT SO THIS IS TAKE HOURS AFTER THE INITIAL INCIDENT

THE HCL WOULD BOIL AND FUME ON CONTACT WITH THE WATER 

EVENTUALLY DISPERSING AS IT IS DILUTED, BUT NOT DILUTED ENOUGH NOT TO CONTAMINATE THAT AREA OF WATER/MARSH

 KameraOne

ITS A BOMB ON WHEELS

Iowa train derailment and fire prompts evacuations in Sibley

By Joe Sutton and Christina Maxouris, CNN

Authorities evacuated parts of Sibley, Iowa, after a train derailment and fire on Sunday.

 Nathan Minten/Reuters Fire is seen on a Union Pacific train that derailed in Sibley, Iowa.

"The derailment happened at about 2 p.m. today," Robynn Tysver, a Union Pacific spokesperson told CNN affiliate KMEG. "We estimate about 47 cars were impacted."

The train crew was not injured, Tysver added.

Authorities said the fire was caused by diesel fuel, according to CNN affiliate KTIV, and that the derailment was a result of a bridge collapse.

Officials with Union Pacific said the incident is still under investigation, KTIV reported.

For people who didn't evacuate, the Osceola County Sheriff's Office wrote in a Facebook post that residents were "advised to open windows on both sides of their homes and be positioned in the middle of their homes."

"This is a safety measure in case a rail car explodes," the sheriff's office wrote.

All waterways in the area were blocked off, KTIV reported.

CNN has reached out to the sheriff's office and the county emergency management for more information.

Following the derailment, the Sibley-Ocheyedan Community School District also announced it would be delayed two hours on Monday.

A decision about the rest of the day will be made Monday morning, the district said in a Facebook post.

"Be safe, and thanks to all our emergency personnel for their work to help us be secure in these times of crisis," it said.

© Robin and Scott Eggink

NOT JUST DIESEL SAME INGREDIENTS USED TO BLOW UP THE OKLAHOMA FED BUILDING

Freight train hauling fertilizer derails in Iowa, dozens of residents evacuated

A freight train hauling fertilizer derailed and caught fire in Iowa Sunday afternoon sending plumes of smoke into the air.

Freight train derails and catches fire in Iowa

The incident took place around 2 p.m. CT near Sibley, Iowa, according to Glenn Anderson, the Sibley city administrator.

Anderson told ABC News that there were no immediate reports of injuries or deaths but dozens of nearby residents were evacuated as crews scrambled to put out the flames.

"Osceola County emergency management has reported approximately 80 people were evacuated from the town of Sibley as the result of a train derailment and fire," Lucinda Parker, with Iowa Homeland Security and Emergency Management, told ABC in an email Sunday night.

© Nathan Minten/NATHAN MINTEN via Reuters Fire is seen on a Union Pacific train carrying hazardous material that has derailed in Sibley, Iowa, U.S., in this still frame obtained from social media drone video dated May 16, 2021.

Anderson said it appears the train's fuel caught fire during the derailment.

"At around 2 p.m. CT, May 16, a Union Pacific train derailed approximately 47 rail cars near Sibley, Iowa," Union Pacific Railroad Company said in a statement Sunday night. "There were no injuries to the crew. Union Pacific is working with local first responders at the scene. Cause of the derailment is under investigation.

The Osceola County Sheriff's Office told ABC News that hazmat equipment was on the scene, although they could not say whether it was being used.

After the incident, the Red Cross in Iowa wrote on Facebook that they opened a reception center for displaced families

.

© Nathan Minten/NATHAN MINTEN via Reuters Fire is seen on a Union Pacific train carrying hazardous material that has derailed in Sibley, Iowa, U.S., in this still frame obtained from social media drone video dated May 16, 2021.

"Individuals and families displaced from their home are welcome at the center where volunteers are on hand to assist those impacted. At this time, overnight accommodations are not being provided, but the Red Cross is monitoring the situation and is prepared to provide lodging, if the need arises," they wrote.

ABC News' Matt Foster contributed to this report.

BETRAYED BY USA, UK AND NATO
Afghans who helped the US now fear being left behind

© Provided by The Canadian Press

KABUL, Afghanistan (AP) — He served as an interpreter alongside U.S. soldiers on hundreds of patrols and dozens of firefights in eastern Afghanistan, earning a glowing letter of recommendation from an American platoon commander and a medal of commendation.

Still, Ayazudin Hilal was turned down when he applied for one of the scarce special visas that would allow him to relocate to the U.S. with his family. Now, as American and NATO forces prepare to leave the country, he and thousands of others who aided the war effort fear they will be left stranded, facing the prospect of Taliban reprisals.

“We are not safe,” the 41-year-old father of six said of Afghan civilians who worked for the U.S. or NATO. “The Taliban is calling us and telling us, ’Your stepbrother is leaving the country soon, and we will kill all of you guys.'"

The fate of interpreters after the troop withdrawal is one of the looming uncertainties surrounding the withdrawal, including a possible resurgence of terrorist threats and a reversal of fragile gains for women if chaos, whether from competing Kabul-based warlords or the Taliban, follows the end of America's military engagement.

Interpreters and other civilians who worked for the U.S. government or NATO can get what is known as a special immigrant visa, or SIV, under a program created in 2009 and modeled after a similar program for Iraqis.

Both SIV programs have long been dogged by complaints about a lengthy and complicated application process for security vetting that grew more cumbersome with pandemic safety measures.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters last month that the U.S. is committed to helping interpreters and other Afghan civilians who aided the war effort, often at great personal risk. The Biden administration has also launched a review of the SIV programs, examining the delays and the ability of applicants to challenge a rejection. It will also be adding anti-fraud measures.

Amid the review, former interpreters, who typically seek to shield their identities and keep a low profile, are becoming increasingly public about what they fear will happen should the Taliban return to power.

“They absolutely are going to kill us,” Mohammad Shoaib Walizada, a former interpreter for the U.S. Army, said in an interview after joining others in a protest in Kabul.

At least 300 interpreters have been killed in Afghanistan since 2016, and the Taliban have made it clear they will continue to be targeted, said Matt Zeller, a co-founder of No One Left Behind, an organization that advocates on their behalf. He also served in the country as an Army officer.

“The Taliban considers them to be literally enemies of Islam,” said Zeller, now a fellow at the Truman National Security Project. “There’s no mercy for them.”

Members of Congress and former service members have also urged the U.S. government to expedite the application process, which now typically takes more than three years. State Department spokesperson Ned Price said May 10 that the U.S. Embassy in Kabul had temporarily increased staff to help process the visas.

In December, Congress added 4,000 visas, bringing the total number of Afghans who can come with their immediate family members to 26,500, with about half the allotted amount already used and about 18,000 applications pending.

Critics and refugee advocates said the need to relocate could swell dramatically if Afghanistan tumbles further into disarray. As it is, competing warlords financed and empowered by U.S. and NATO forces threaten the future along with a resurgent Taliban, which have been able to make substantive territorial gains against a poorly trained and poorly equipped Afghan security force largely financed by U.S. taxpayers.

“While I applaud the Biden administration’s review of the process, if they are not willing to sort of rethink the entire thing, they are not going to actually start helping those Afghans who are most at need,” said Noah Coburn, a political anthropologist whose research focuses on Afghanistan.

Coburn estimates there could be as many as 300,000 Afghan civilians who worked for the U.S. or NATO in some form over the past two decades.

“There is a wide range of Afghans who would not be tolerated under the Taliban’s conception of what society should look like,” said Adam Bates, policy counsel for the International Refugee Assistance Project.

Those fears have been heightened by recent targeted killings of journalists and other civilians as well as government workers. The Islamic State affiliate in Afghanistan has claimed responsibility for several, while the Taliban and government blame each other.

Biden raised the nation’s overall cap on refugee admissions to 62,500 this month, weeks after facing bipartisan blowback for his delay in replacing the record low ceiling set by his predecessor, Donald Trump.

The U.S. is not planning to move civilians out en masse, for now at least. “We are processing SIVs in Kabul and have no plans for evacuations at this time,” a senior administration official said.

The White House is in the beginning stages of discussing its review with Congress and will work with lawmakers if changes in the SIV program are needed “in order to process applications as quickly and efficiently as possible, while also ensuring the integrity of the program and safeguarding national security,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.

Former interpreters have support in Congress, in part because many also have former American troops vouching for them.

Walizada, for example, submitted a letter of support from an Army sergeant who supervised him in dozens of patrols, including one where the interpreter was wounded by Taliban gunfire. “I cannot recall a linguist who had a greater dedication to his country or the coalition cause,” the sergeant wrote.

Walizada was initially approved for a visa, but it was later revoked, with U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services telling him that it had “adverse information you may be unaware of,” in a letter he provided to The Associated Press. Walizada said he has appealed the decision and hasn't received a response.

Hilal, who translated from Dari and Pashto to English for the Army from June 2009 to December 2012, was rejected by the U.S. Embassy, which said he did not meet the requirement for “faithful and valuable service,” because he was fired by the contracting firm that hired him after 3 1/2 years of service.

It was a stinging response, considering the dangers he faced. “If I haven’t done faithful and good service for the U.S. Army, why have they given me this medal?” he says, holding the commendation, in an AP interview at an office in Kabul used by the former interpreters to meet with journalists.

Why he was fired by the U.S.-based contractor, Mission Essential, is unclear. Hilal said he had a conflict with supervisors that started with a dispute over a work assignment. The company says it does not discuss current or former employees and declined to comment.

But whatever happened eventually, a November 2019 letter of support from his platoon commander was highly complimentary of “stellar” service that “rivals that of most deployed service members.”

Hilal was by his side on hundreds of patrols and dozens of firefights, monitoring enemy radio traffic and interpreting during encounters with locals, Army Maj. Thomas Goodman said in the letter.

“He was dependable and performed admirably,” Goodman wrote. “Even in firefights that lasted hours on end, he never lost his nerve, and I could always count him to be by my side.”

As it happens, an AP journalist was embedded with the unit for a time, amid intense fighting in eastern Afghanistan, and captured images of Hilal and Goodman, surrounded by villagers as American forces competed with the Taliban for the support of the people.

Goodman said he stands by his recommendation but declined to comment further.

Coburn, who interviewed more than 150 special immigrant visa recipients and applicants for a recently released study of the program, said Hilal's denial reflects a rigid evaluation process. “There is no nuance to the definition of service,” he said. “You either served or you didn’t serve.”

The special immigration visa program allows applicants to make one appeal, and many are successful. Nearly 80% of 243 Afghans who appealed in the first quarter of 2021 were subsequently approved after providing additional information, according to the State Department. Hilal says his appeal was rejected.

Bates, of the International Refugee Assistance Project, says the fact that there is a U.S. Army officer willing to support should count for something. “Even if he doesn’t qualify for the SIV program, this plainly seems like someone who is in need of protection,” he said.

___

Fox reported from Washington. Associated Press writers Julie Watson in San Diego and Rhonda Shafner in New York contributed to this report.

Rahim Faiez And Ben Fox, The Associated Press

THE PEOPLES WILL

Chile's govt in shock loss as voters pick independents to draft constitution

By Aislinn Laing, Fabian Cambero and Dave Sherwood

 Reuters/RODRIGO GARRIDO Elections for governors, mayors, councillors and constitutional assembly members to draft a new constitution to replace Chile's charter, in Valparaiso

SANTIAGO (Reuters) -Chile's center-right ruling coalition suffered a shock loss on Sunday night after failing to secure a critical one-third of seats in the body that will draft the country's new constitution.

With 90% of the votes counted, candidates backed by President Sebastian Pinera's centre-right Chile Vamos coalition had won only a fifth while independents picked up the most votes. New proposals will require two-thirds approval and without a third of the delegates, the government will struggle to block radical changes to the constitution unless it can forge new alliances.

© Reuters/STRINGER Chileans vote for governors, mayors, councillors and constitutional assembly members to draft a new constitution, in Santiago

The result and defeats for Chile Vamos candidates in mayoral, governatorial and municipal elections held at the same time bode ill for the ruling coalition ahead of general and presidential elections in November.

The vote to pick 155 citizens to rewrite the constitution was borne from fierce protests that erupted over inequality and elitism in October 2019. The current constitution drafted during the 1973-1990 dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet is widely perceived to favor big business over the rights of ordinary citizens.

© Reuters/RODRIGO GARRIDO Elections for governors, mayors, councillors and constitutional assembly members to draft a new constitution to replace Chile's charter, in Valparaiso

Until recently, Chile Vamos had been confident its candidates would win at least a third of the vote.

Pinera said his government and other traditional political parties should heed the "loud and clear" message that they had not adequately responded to the needs of citizens.

It was "a great opportunity" for Chileans to build a more "fair, inclusive, prosperous and sustainable country," he added.

CNN's local channel in Chile projected independents would win 45 seats, Chile Vamos would gain 39, the centre-left 25, the far-left 28 and a small coalition would take one seat. Seventeen seats have been reserved for members of Chile's indigenous communities who are not mentioned in the present charter.

© Reuters/RODRIGO GARRIDO Elections for governors, mayors, councillors and constitutional assembly members to draft a new constitution to replace Chile's charter, in Valparaiso

Pinera cautioned, however, against extreme changes which some fear could threaten Chile's status as one of the wealthiest, most stable democracies in Latin America.

Some of the more controversial ideas being advanced for the new constitution include potential changes to private land and water rights as well as to employment legislation that could threaten the interests of traditional investors.

Gabriel Boric, a leading member of Chile's far-left Broad Front coalition, said the result paved the way for major changes in Chile, the world's largest copper producer.

"We are looking for a new treaty for our indigenous populations, to recover our natural resources, build a state that guarantees universal social rights," he said. "We're going to start from scratch and build a new Chile."

More than 1,200 people put themselves forward to draft the new charter, including actors, writers, civil society activists, politicians, TV hosts and fashion models.

Francisca Linconao, a "Machi" spiritual leader of the Mapuche indigenous people who was jailed for alleged terrorist links before later being absolved of charges and released, was among those winning a seat.

Delegates will spend a maximum 12-month period debating and crafting the new text and Chileans will then vote on the final product. If it fails, Chile will revert to the current text.

The new constitutional body is the first in the world to stipulate a roughly equal number of male and female delegates.

Marcela Cubillos, a senior figure in the Chile Vamos coalition who gained a seat, said the right would need to forge new alliances.

"The results that we are seeing today make the construction of these agreements essential," she told reporters.

The government's popularity has fallen amid COVID-related poverty and joblessness and due to its attempts to block citizens from drawing down their privately held pensions.

CHILE FOLLOWED THE CHICAGO SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS PRIVATIZING PENSIONS AND AS YOU CAN SEE FAILED  

(Reporting by Aislinn Laing, Fabian Cambero and Dave Sherwood; Editing by Diane Craft and Edwina Gibbs)

Chileans urged to make voices heard on rewriting of constitution

By Aislinn Laing

© Reuters/RODRIGO GARRIDO Local and constitutional convention elections, in Valparaiso

SANTIAGO (Reuters) - Chileans were urged on Sunday to follow through on their call for a new constitution as voting to pick the architects of the charter entered a second day amid concerns about low turn-out, particularly in the country's more marginalized areas

.

© Reuters/PABLO SANHUEZA Local and constitutional convention elections in Chile

Observers around the South American nation reported a slow start in most polling stations on Sunday, a trend that was particularly marked in the poorest areas of the capital Santiago and in the north of the country, according to official data.

© Reuters/PABLO SANHUEZA Local and constitutional convention elections in Chile

Fourteen million people are eligible to pick the 155 people who will draft the new constitution and the government is hoping for turnout of 7 million.

Those chosen will spend a maximum of 12 months crafting the new text, with a two-thirds majority required for each key decision, forcing delegates to form alliances. Chileans will then vote on the final product. If it fails, the country will revert to the current text and the process ends.

More than 7.5 million people turned out in October last year and voted by 78% to tear up the present constitution drafted during the 1973-1990 dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet.

Video: Chile's Pinera votes for constituent assembly members (AFP)



Just over 3 million people, or 20.4% of the electorate, voted on Saturday, according to the country's Servel electoral service, with the turnout highest in the three Santiago suburbs which voted to reject a change to the constitution.

The call for a new constitution emerged from social unrest over inequality that tore through Chile, the world's largest producer of copper, in October 2019 and still simmers to this day amid economic hardship wrought by the coronavirus pandemic and what many perceive to be patchy government support.

Maria Emilia, 71, a polling station volunteer in the working class Santiago suburb of La Pintana, issued a plea for youthful voters to cement their call for a new Chile.

"I have been here since 8 a.m. and I am so sad to have only seen one young person come," she said in a video posted on social media. "Please guys, wake up. You fought so hard to have a new constitution."

Luz Donaire, 65, a small business owner in neighboring Puente Alto, said she was voting for the sake of future generations. "My expectations are high. I want more equality for my grandchildren."

Analysts said turnout on Saturday could have been affected by a lack of trust that votes cast on the first day would be safe in polling stations overnight, and could still pick up on Sunday, Chile's traditional day for voting.

© Reuters/RODRIGO GARRIDO Local and constitutional convention elections, in Valparaiso

Claudia Heiss, an investigator for Chile's Center of Conflict and Social Cohesion Studies, said last year's plebiscite had offered a clearer choice of yes or no whereas the latest poll involved choosing individuals, many of them with political links. That could have generated fresh mistrust, particularly among young voters, she said.

Camila Rojas, 20, voted for the first time in Chile's seaside city of Valparaiso and issued a stern call to her generation. "I guess people got demotivated, felt like nothing is going to change," she said. "But change starts with you - if you don't vote then nothing is going to change."

© Reuters/JUAN GONZALEZ Chileans vote for governors, mayors, councillors and constitutional assembly members to draft a new constitution, in Temuco

(Reporting by Aislinn Laing; Additional reporting Pablo Sanhueza in Santiago and Rodrigo Garrido in Valparaiso; Editing by Paul Simao)

European leaders seized more power during the pandemic. Few have 'exit plans' to hand it back

Analysis by Luke McGee and Saskya Vandoorne, CNN 


Hundreds of thousands of people have lost their lives across Europe due to Covid-19, and many more have suffered long-term ill health after contracting the disease. They're not the only casualties of the pandemic.

Kiran Ridley/Getty Images Anti-lockdown and anti-vaccination protesters demonstrate in Paris on the first day of a new four-week lockdown on March 20, 2021.

Democratic norms have also been seriously dented by a year of restrictions, and experts now fear power-hungry politicians could be reluctant to give up their near-total authority once the crisis is over.

In France, for instance, parliament approved a bill earlier this week that extends the country's state of emergency until late September. The bill allows President Emmanuel Macron to introduce a health pass, showing whether someone has been vaccinated against Covid-19 or not, as well as curfews across the nation.

The move was seen as controversial by some of Macron's liberal allies: after all, instructing your citizens to be home by a certain time and tracking their medical information is hardly consistent with France's liberal traditions.

Over the course of his presidency, Macron has been accused of drifting from the centrist liberal platform on which he was elected in 2017, most notably taking a harder line on Islam and immigration to compete with his top political rival, the far-right Marine Le Pen.

© Maciej Luczniewski/NurPhoto via Getty Images A protester pushes a police shield during an anti-lockdown protest in Warsaw on December 13, 2020.

It wasn't long ago that the French president was extolling the values of democracy. Speaking to the US Congress in 2018, he paid tribute to the "sanctuary of democracy" he was addressing and reminded the world of the words "emblazoned on the flags of the French revolutionaries, 'Vivre libre ou mourir.' Live free or die." Ironic, given the president's apparent eagerness to boss his citizens around to stop the spread of a deadly virus

.

© Arpad Kurucz/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images Police officers check a demonstrator during an anti-lockdown demonstration in Budapest, Hungary, on January 31, 2021.

Macron's loosening relationship with democracy doesn't stop at tracking who's been injected and forcing people indoors. Throughout the pandemic, the president has reduced the role that his parliament plays in scrutinizing his policy announcements.

"Parliament's role in France is more limited under the new state of health emergency than before," said Joelle Grogan, senior lecturer in UK public and EU law at the University of Middlesex. "There is no obligation for governments and administrations to send copies of orders they adopt to parliament."

Democracy Reporting International (DRI) recently published a comprehensive study on how governments across the European Union had responded in the context of democracy and the rule of law. France was listed as a country of "significant concern" for the extent to which its government has subverted legal norms.

France is not the only EU nation that has backslid on democracy.

In Austria, Slovenia, Belgium and Lithuania to name a few, there is serious concern that governments have misused existing laws to restrict the liberty of citizens. In fact, DRI listed only Spain out of the 27 EU member states as a country of "no concern" when it came to parliamentary or legal oversight of Covid measures.

© STEPHANIE LECOCQ/AFP/POOL/AFP via Getty Images Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban has a long history of undermining his country's democratic institutions.

The most egregious example probably comes from Hungary, where the government passed legislation that allowed it to rule by decree with no judicial review.

Courts in Cyprus and the Czech Republic claimed to have no jurisdiction over coronavirus measures. This significantly reduced moves to safeguard any attempted government overreach.

A central concern of DRI's report is that few European countries have a clear "exit plan" for ending states of emergency and returning to normal ways of governance.

This is a real concern in the case of France. Phillippe Marlière, professor of French and European politics at University College London, notes that in recent years, France has introduced numerous states of emergency in response to terror attacks. Many of the measures introduced at these times concerning personal liberty have remained in place.

"I would bet that a lot of the illiberal measures that have come in under Covid, like the health pass and threats of curfews will remain in place or be seen again," he said. "Politicians are very good at taking authority but less good at handing it back."

There is particular concern among some that Macron, who is facing election next year, might see keeping a tight grip on power as advantageous.

"The French president has more power on paper than the American [resident. He can control the police, the army, all domestic policy, all foreign policy. He even appoints his own prime minister," said Marlière. "This, combined with someone seeking re-election who is already shifting to the right on issues like Islam with no real oversight is very concerning."

More worryingly, the DRI report also states that only five EU member states -- the Czech Republic, France, Lithuania, the Netherlands and Portugal -- have adequate exit strategies for a return to normal.

"It's far easier to govern by decree than to govern within limits, so it's obvious why leaders would want to hang onto powers," said Grogan, who also noted that undermining the rule of law has been a problem within the EU for some time.

In recent years, Hungary and Poland had both abused the rule of law to such an extent that article 7 of the EU's treaty, which, if approved by all member states, would restrict both nations' voting rights with the EU and restrict access to EU money, has been triggered against both.

The problem is that both Hungary and Poland are able to veto actions against the other, rendering the EU somewhat toothless. "What happens next is the big problem. We can talk about legal mechanisms and the laws. But ultimately we need political consensus," Grogan adds.

Last summer, Brussels tried to force Hungary and Poland to fall in line though a mechanism in the EU's long-term budget, but ultimately choked at the last minute and agreed a fudge in order to get the bloc's Covid recovery funds approved.

That was two member states. What happens when it's many more is a real unknown for the EU.

"Fundamentally, the EU is a legal structure. It exists to obligate mutual rights between states and citizens," said Grogan. "But it would be remiss to ignore the complexity beyond that. As Brexit proved it is a group of states deciding to be part of the club. Brexit showed us you can leave, but the problem is if someone doesn't accept the values and doesn't want to leave, it is legally impossible to remove a state."

Where this ends is anyone's guess. The EU is unlikely to fall apart, as many have predicted, but it is possible that Euroskeptics across the bloc can force changes that undermine the whole thing. And if you were looking for a way to destabilize the EU, making a mockery of the rule of law would be a good place to start.

"We're seeing, as usual with emergencies, a shift of power towards the executive with oversight from parliaments, judiciary and other bodies getting weaker," said Jakub Jaraczewski, research coordinator at DRI.

"The EU could work towards better legal oversight -- be it through the Commission, the Fundamental Rights Agency or even through the Court of Justice. But that would require political will from the leadership in member states for the central EU to take control of policy areas they prefer to keep close to their chests."

It's sometimes said that EU law is a complicated mess of narrow political interests dressed in a legal cloak. Those narrow political interests have had a greater impact on the bloc's direction of travel than the ideals that supposedly unite 27 vastly different nations.

For the best part of a decade, member states bickering over precisely what Europe should be and how it should respond to crises has been the hardest thing for the EU to navigate. The disregard for law, however, is a more fundamental headache than disagreements on migration or how money should be spent.

When politics returns to something resembling normal, Brussels might find itself with more than just Poland and Hungary on the naughty step. And if these recent delinquents decide that their newfound powers matter more to them than keeping their EU neighbors happy, there is very little that EU grandees can do to stop the fallout destabilizing the whole bloc.

Colombia govt to consider protesters' conditions for talks

The Colombian government said Sunday it would consider protesters' demands to "guarantee the right to protest" as a condition for negotiations after 19 days of bloody demonstrations against President Ivan Duque.

© JOAQUIN SARMIENTO Triggered by a now abandoned tax reform, the demonstrations have drawn thousands of pandemic-weary Colombians to the streets, venting their anger over poverty and yawning inequality

Triggered by a now-abandoned tax reform plan, the nationwide demonstrations have drawn thousands of pandemic-weary Colombians to the streets, venting their anger over poverty, yawning inequality and the government's harsh response to the protesters.

© JOAQUIN SARMIENTO Clashes between police and protesters have resulted in at least 42 deaths -- including one police officer -- and more than 1,500 injuries according to official figures

Spokespersons for the government and the most visible protester organization met in Bogota for the second time since the protests erupted on April 28.

At the end of the meeting, which lasted about four hours, presidential adviser Miguel Ceballos said he had received a document demanding "guarantees to exercise the right to protest" that "must be considered by the government."

"We understand and value the proposals of the strike committee in the sense of not sitting at the negotiation table until the points they raise are considered," Ceballos said.

Unions, university students and other social movements that are part of the so-called National Strike Committee called for fresh protests on Wednesday.

Talks between the two parties will continue on Monday at 2:00 pm (1900 GMT).

The document shared by student leaders who attended the meeting demands an end to the violence against protesters, that Duque condemn "explicitly and forcefully the abuses of the security forces" and recognize his "responsibility" for attacks during the protests.

The United Nations, the European Union and the Organization of American States (OAS), including the United States, have denounced the excessive use of force by law enforcement agencies during demonstrations.

Clashes between police and protesters have resulted in at least 42 deaths -- including one police officer -- and more than 1,500 injuries, according to official figures.

NGOs say the number is higher.

lv/mtp/q

THE POPULAR CHOICE

Peru socialist presidential candidate Castillo outlines new taxes, royalties for miners
By Marco Aquino 

©

 Reuters/ANGELA PONCE FILE PHOTO: Peru's presidential candidate Pedro Castillo attends a rally in Lima

LIMA (Reuters) - Peru's socialist presidential candidate Pedro Castillo said on Sunday night he would raise taxes and royalties on Peru's key mining sector and renegotiate the tax contracts of large companies if elected to high office next month.

Castillo, a teacher and trade union leader who was politically unknown before this year's election, said in a document outlining plans for his first 100 days in office that he would strengthen the role of the state with a "mixed economy" approach and actively regulate monopolies and oligopolies.

He said he would use the increased revenue to substantially increase investment in education and health.

"For this we must nationalize our wealth, make it work for Peruvians," he said.

Castillo warned two weeks ago that if elected he would review contracts with foreign miners, whom he accused of "plundering" the country, to ensure 70% of their profits remained in Peru.

The 51-year-old, who sports a wide-brimmed hat and has struck a chord with Peru's less affluent voters, also wants to rewrite the constitution to weaken the business elite and give the state a more dominant role in the economy.

His rival Keiko Fujimori - a free-market proponent and daughter of ex-President Alberto Fujimori, who is in jail for human rights abuses and corruption - has also pledged to distribute Peru's mineral wealth more evenly.

Castillo until recently enjoyed a clear lead in the polls, but according to a voter simulation released at the weekend the gap between the two candidates has now closed.

Castillo justified his plan to up taxes, saying copper production costs in Peru - the world's second-largest producer of the red metal - are "the lowest in the world" while prices are at record highs.

He also pointed to a similar move being pushed through neighbouring Chile's congress by opposition parties amidst government warnings that it will crimp investment.

Castillo also voted to chase down tax avoiders and those in debt to the authorities, and impose import controls to support industry, particularly in clothing, footwear and agricultural sectors.

(Reporting by Marco Aquino; Writing by Aislinn Laing)

NOT REALLY Beyond Petroleum
BP's lobbying for gas shows rifts over path to net-zero emissions

By Shadia Nasralla, Simon Jessop and Kate Abnett 

© Reuters/TOBY MELVILLE FILE PHOTO: BP's new Chief Executive Bernard Looney gives a speech in central London

LONDON/BRUSSELS (Reuters) - Oil major BP has lobbied for the EU to support natural gas, a move that exposes divergent views among investors and reflects a wider European dispute about the role of the fossil fuel in the transition to a lower-carbon world.


The European Commission - aiming to reach net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 - had planned to omit gas-fuelled power plants from a new list of investments that can be marketed as sustainable, but delayed the decision last month following complaints from some countries and companies.

Britain's BP was among those lobbying against the plan. In a December 2020 response to the Commission's public consultation on the issue, it said the new rules could threaten financing of gas projects, and obstruct a shift away from more polluting coal.

BP called for an increase in the emission limits that gas plants would have to meet to allow them to be labelled green without requiring the immediate installation of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, which is still deemed too expensive for wide-scale use.

Natural gas emits roughly half the CO2 emissions of coal when burned in power plants. But gas infrastructure is also associated with emissions of the greenhouse gas methane.

When asked about its lobbying, BP said it strongly supported the EU's climate goals. It added that natural gas was enabling the transition from coal.

However investors gave mixed responses when asked whether BP's championing of gas was at odds with its pledge to support the Paris Agreement. As well as committing to bringing carbon emissions from the barrels it produces to net zero by 2050, the company has pledged to align its lobbying activities to support net-zero carbon policies.

Natasha Landell-Mills, head of stewardship at asset manager Sarasin and Partners, said BP's lobbying raised questions about its commitments.

"If their capex (capital expenditure) was oriented towards full decarbonisation by 2050, then you'd naturally expect to see lobbying align with this goal. The fact it seems to be pushing the other way suggests a problem," she added.

Others, though, pointed to the question of what aligning with the Paris Agreement means in practice.

"It's not like a standard setter has said 'here, exactly, is what Paris-aligned means, industry by industry'," said John Streur, CEO at U.S. asset manager Calvert Research and Management.

Another institutional investor, speaking on condition of anonymity, said he did not see a problem with BP's response and that there was no blueprint for what Paris-aligned means, adding however it was not a good time "to stick your head out".

'FAIR TRANSITION'

The European Commission had originally said gas plants must emit below 100g of carbon dioxide equivalent per kilowatt hour (CO2e/kWh) to be labelled green - a level even the use of CCS would make it tough to achieve, according to BP.

In its December submission to the Commission, BP urged the EU to set a higher emissions limit to encourage power suppliers to shift more capacity to gas from coal plants.

"Natural gas should have a dedicated threshold, above the current 100g CO2e/kWh, to reflect its role to facilitate an affordable and fair energy transition by enabling a shift away from coal in power generation and heating, providing dispatchable power to complement renewables and offering an alternative fuel in transport," it said.

BP is far from alone in its support of gas.

At least nine EU countries, including Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic, lobbied the Commission to label gas plants as sustainable, documents seen by Reuters showed. Other governments including Denmark, Spain and Ireland urged Brussels to exclude the fuel.

European oil and gas producer Eni criticised the 100 g/kWH threshold as too low in December, while a group including Total and Repsol signed an open letter from several energy firms in support of gas as a means to replace coal in the energy mix.

"Any tonne we don't emit today is much more valuable in terms of avoiding global warming then a tonne that is with the best intention avoided in 2040," said Mario Mehren, Chief Executive of Wintershall Dea, who signed that letter.

'UNABATED GAS'

The Paris Agreement set a target to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, and aim for 1.5 degrees.

The EU aims to cut its net greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030, from 1990 levels, and eliminate them by 2050.

The role of gas depends on factors such as what volume of emissions can be captured and stored in the future, and fixing methane leaks from gas infrastructure, said Joeri Rogelj, a lead author on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and Director of Research at the Grantham Institute at Imperial College London.

"In that context, unabated gas, without carbon capture and storage, is not part of the key sustainable investments," he added.

Sandrine Dixson-Declève, co-president of the Club of Rome think-tank and one of the EU's expert advisers on the sustainable finance taxonomy, said the rules needed to reflect climate science.

"No one is denying that gas can help the transition, but that does not mean it is Paris Agreement compliant."

(Reporting by Shadia Nasralla and Simon Jessop in London and Kate Abnett in Brussels; Editing by Simon Webb, Veronica Brown and Pravin Char)