Overconfidence in news judgement

New study shows that overconfidence in news judgment is associated with false news susceptibility

UNIVERSITY OF UTAH

Research News

 

A new study published in Proceedings of National Academics of Sciences finds that individuals who falsely believe they are able to identify false news are more likely to fall victim to it. In the article published today, Ben Lyons, assistant professor of communication at the University of Utah, and his colleagues examine the concern about the public's susceptibility to false news due to their inability to recognize their own limitations in identifying such information.

"Though Americans believe confusion caused by false news is extensive, relatively few indicate having seen or shared it," said Lyons. "If people incorrectly see themselves as highly skilled at identifying false news, they may unwittingly be more likely to consume, believe and share it, especially if it conforms to their worldview."

Lyons and his colleagues used two large nationally representative surveys with a total of 8,285 respondents. Individuals were asked to evaluate the accuracy of a series of Facebook headlines and then rate their own abilities to discern false news content. Lyons used these two measures to assess overconfidence among respondents and how it is related to beliefs and behaviors.

"Our results paint a worrying picture. Many people are simply unaware of their own vulnerability to misinformation."

The vast majority of respondents--about 90 percent--reported they are above average in their ability to discern false and legitimate news headlines. Three in four individuals overestimated their ability to distinguish between legitimate and false news headlines and respondents placed themselves 22 percentiles higher than their score warranted, on average. About 20 percent of respondents rated themselves 50 or more percentiles higher than their score warranted.

"Using data measuring respondents' online behavior, we show that those who overrate their ability more frequently visit websites known to spread false or misleading news. These overconfident respondents are also less able to distinguish between true and false claims about current events and report higher willingness to share false content, especially when it aligns with their political leanings."

Prior research suggests it may be individuals' lack of skill itself that drives engagement with false news and finds that people who are worse at discerning between legitimate and false news are worse at doing so in their browsing habits. However, Lyons' analysis also shows that inflated perceptions of ability are independently associated with engaging with misinformation, suggesting the perceptual gaps are an additional source of vulnerability.

These results provide new evidence of an important potential mechanism by which people may fall victim to misinformation and disseminate it online. Although the design does not identify the causal effect of overconfidence, these findings suggest that the mismatch between one's perceived ability to spot false stories and people's actual abilities may play an important and previously unrecognized role in the spread of false information online.

After publication, find the full study here.

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Sri Lanka police investigate fire on ship off Colombo

COLOMBO, Sri Lanka (AP) — A special Sri Lankan police team has begun investigating a fire on a ship anchored off its capital, as the government seeks to take legal action against the vessel's owners over the incident, which has caused severe marine pollution, officials said Monday.

© Provided by The Canadian Press

The fire on the MV X-Press Pearl has been burning since May 20, ravaging the ship, which officials said is only about five months old.

Navy spokesman Capt. Indika de Silva said the flames are still burning but have been reduced to “small spot fires” in the aft of the ship. Firefighting tugboats continue to spray the vessel, with support from vessels from the Sri Lankan navy and Indian coast guard.

Police spokesperson Ajith Rohana said a special 10-member team from the police Criminal Investigation Department has been assigned the probe. It is to question the ship's captain and chief engineer on Monday.

The vessel’s 25-member crew was evacuated on May 25 after an explosion. It includes Philippine, Chinese, Indian and Russian nationals.

The navy believes the fire was caused by chemicals being transported on the Singapore-flagged ship. It was carrying 1,486 containers, including 25 tons of nitric acid and other chemicals that were loaded at the port of Hazira, India, on May 15. The fire has destroyed most of the ship’s cargo.

Debris — including several tons of plastic pellets used to make plastic bags — from the burning ship has washed ashore and is causing severe pollution on beaches. The government has banned fishing along about 80 kilometers (50 miles) of the coast.

Authorities have also warned residents not to touch the debris because it could be contaminated with harmful chemicals.

The government’s Marine Environment Protection Authority says chemicals have mixed with the seawater and could cause severe damage to marine species and coral reefs.

Local television channels are showing dead fish, turtles and other marine life that has washed ashore in recent days.

The X-Press Pearl was anchored about 9.5 nautical miles (18 kilometers) northwest of Colombo and waiting to enter its port when the fire began.

X-Press Feeders, the operator of the ship, said on Sunday that the vessel’s hull remains structurally intact and there has been no loss of oil into the port’s waters.

Bharatha Mallawarachi, The Associated Press

Sri Lanka faces disaster as burning ship spills chemicals on beaches

Hannah Ellis-Petersen South Asia correspondent 

Sri Lanka is facing the worst environmental disaster in its history after a cargo ship carrying chemicals caught fire off its coast, spilling microplastics across the country’s pristine beaches and killing marine life.

© Provided by The Guardian Photograph: Ishara S Kodikara/AFP/Getty Images

The fire on MV X-Press Pearl, a Singapore-registered ship, broke out on 20 May and has been burning ever since. The Sri Lankan navy and Indian coastguard have been trying to reduce the flames for more than 10 days.

The 25-person crew was evacuated but the firefighting operation has been complicated by monsoon winds and the highly flammable and poisonous cargo. The ship was carrying 25 tonnes of nitric acid, sodium hydroxide and other dangerous chemicals as well as 28 containers of raw materials used to make plastic bags. It also had more than 300 tonnes of fuel in its tanks.

Though officials said the worst of the fire had been extinguished, explosions continued to be heard and thick smoke and small flames could be seen from the vessel over the weekend, which is anchored nine miles off the capital, Colombo.

It is feared the chemical spill has already caused untold damage to Sri Lanka’s coastline, including the popular tourist resorts of Negombo and Kalutara, with beaches thickly coated in microplastics and an oil slick visible in the surrounding ocean. The plastic pellets used to make plastic bags can be fatal to marine life and dead sea turtles, fish and birds have already begun washing up on beaches.

© Provided by The Guardian An Indian coastguard ship tries to douse the fire as smoke billows from MV X-Press Pearl. Photograph: Lakruwan Wanniarachchi/AFP/Getty Images

Local people have been told not to touch any of the debris as it could be highly toxic and fishing has been banned within a 50-mile radius of the scene.

“With the available information so far, this can be described as the worst disaster in my lifetime,” said Dharshani Lahandapura, the chair of the Marine Environment Protection Authority. The MEPA said the chemicals had leaked into the sea and contaminated the water, probably causing ecological damage to coral reefs, lagoons and mangroves that could take decades to repair.

© Photograph: Ishara S Kodikara/AFP/Getty Images Members of the Sri Lankan navy work to remove debris washed ashore from the MV X-Press Pearl in Colombo.

Thousands of navy personnel in protective gear have been deployed on a cleanup operation to remove the thick layer of plastic pollution and chemical waste that has begun coating the shores, with bulldozers used to move the waste.

The government has promised an investigation into the disaster and a special police team has been assembled to question the captain and crew. Authorities believe the disaster was caused by a nitric acid leak.

Sri Lanka questions burning cargo ship crew as ecological devastation assessed

Sri Lanka's criminal investigators began questioning the crew of a burning cargo ship Monday, as the Singapore-registered carrier smouldered for a 12th straight day in one of the island's worst-ever marine ecological disasters.

 WATER IS LIFE

New 'Swiss Army knife' cleans up water pollution

First used to soak up oil in water, new sponge sequesters excess phosphate from water

NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY

Research News

 

IMAGE: CO-AUTHORS VINAYAK DRAVID AND STEPHANIE RIBET EXAMINE THEIR PHOSPHATE ELIMINATION AND RECOVERY SUBSTRATE view more 

CREDIT: NORTHWESTERN UNIVERSITY

Phosphate pollution in rivers, lakes and other waterways has reached dangerous levels, causing algae blooms that starve fish and aquatic plants of oxygen. Meanwhile, farmers worldwide are coming to terms with a dwindling reserve of phosphate fertilizers that feed half the world's food supply.

Inspired by Chicago's many nearby bodies of water, a Northwestern University-led team has developed a way to repeatedly remove and reuse phosphate from polluted waters. The researchers liken the development to a "Swiss Army knife" for pollution remediation as they tailor their membrane to absorb and later release other pollutants.

The research will be published during the week of May 31 in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science.

Phosphorus underpins both the world's food system and all life on earth. Every living organism on the planet requires it: phosphorous is in cell membranes, the scaffolding of DNA and in our skeleton. Though other key elements like oxygen and nitrogen can be found in the atmosphere, phosphorous has no analog. The small fraction of usable phosphorous comes from the Earth's crust, which takes thousands or even millions of years to weather away. And our mines are running out.

A 2021 article in The Atlantic by Julia Rosen cited Isaac Asimov's 1939 essay, in which the American writer and chemist dubbed phosphorous "life's bottleneck."

Given the shortage of this non-renewable natural resource, it is sadly ironic that many of our lakes are suffering from a process known as eutrophication, which occurs when too many nutrients enter a natural water source. As phosphate and other minerals build up, aquatic vegetation and algae become too dense, depleting oxygen from water and ultimately killing aquatic life.

"We used to reuse phosphate a lot more," said Stephanie Ribet, the paper's first author. "Now we just pull it out of the ground, use it once and flush it away into water sources after use. So, it's a pollution problem, a sustainability problem and a circular economy problem."

Ecologists and engineers traditionally have developed tactics to address the mounting environmental and public health concerns around phosphate by eliminating phosphate from water sources. Only recently has the emphasis shifted away from removing to recovering phosphate.

"One can always do certain things in a laboratory setting," said Vinayak Dravid, the study's corresponding author. "But there's a Venn Diagram when it comes to scaling up, where you need to be able to scale the technology, you want it to be effective and you want it to be affordable. There was nothing in that intersection of the three before, but our sponge seems to be a platform that meets all these criteria."

Dravid is the Abraham Harris Professor of Materials Science and Engineering at Northwestern's McCormick School of Engineering, the founding director of the Northwestern University Atomic and Nanoscale Characterization Experimental Center (NUANCE), and director of the Soft and Hybrid Nanotechnology Experimental Resource (SHyNE). Dravid also serves as the director of global initiatives for Northwestern's International Institute of Nanotechnology. Ribet is a Ph.D. student in Dravid's lab and the paper's first author.

The team's Phosphate Elimination and Recovery Lightweight (PEARL) membrane is a porous, flexible substrate (such as a coated sponge, cloth or fibers) that selectively sequesters up to 99% of phosphate ions from polluted water. Coated with nanostructures that bind to phosphate, the PEARL membrane can be tuned by controlling the pH to either absorb or release nutrients to allow for phosphate recovery and reuse of the membrane for many cycles.

Current methods to remove phosphate are based on complex, lengthy, multi-step methods. Most of them do not also recover the phosphate during removal and ultimately generate a great deal of physical waste. The PEARL membrane provides a simple one-step process to remove phosphate that also efficiently recovers it. It's also reusable and generates no physical waste.

Using samples from Chicago's Water Reclamation District, the researchers tested their theory with the added complexity of real water samples.

"We often call this a 'nanoscale solution to a gigaton problem,'" Dravid said. "In many ways the nanoscale interactions that we study have implications for macrolevel remediation."

The team has demonstrated that the sponge-based approach is effective on scales, ranging from milligrams to kilograms, suggesting promise in scaling even further.

This research builds on a former development from the same team - Vikas Nandwana, a member of the Dravid group and co-author on the present study was the first author -called the OHM (oleophilic hydrophobic multifunctional) sponge that used the same sponge platform to selectively remove and recover oil resulting from oil contamination in water. By modifying the nanomaterial coating in the membrane, the team plans to next use their "plug-and-play"-like framework to go after heavy metals. Ribet also said multiple pollutants could be addressed at once by applying multiple materials with tailored affinities.

"This water remediation challenge hits so close to home," Ribet said. "The western basin of Lake Erie is one of the main areas you think of when it comes to eutrophication, and I was inspired by learning more about the water remediation challenges in our Great Lakes neighborhood."

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The research, "Phosphate Elimination and Recovery Lightweight (PEARL) Membrane: A Sustainable Environmental Remediation Approach," was supported by the National Science Foundation (award number DMR-1929356). Research for the paper made use of SHyNE resource facilities, which are supported by the NSF National Nanotechnology Coordinated Infrastructure (NSF-NCCI) program.

Benjamin Shindel, Roberto dos Reis and Vikas Nandwana -- all from Northwestern -- coauthored the paper.

Extreme CO2 greenhouse effect heated up the young Earth

UNIVERSITY OF COLOGNE

Research News

 

Very high atmospheric CO2 levels can explain the high temperatures on the still young Earth three to four billion years ago. At the time, our Sun shone with only 70 to 80 per cent of its present intensity. Nevertheless, the climate on the young Earth was apparently quite warm because there was hardly any glacial ice. This phenomenon is known as the 'paradox of the young weak Sun.' Without an effective greenhouse gas, the young Earth would have frozen into a lump of ice. Whether CO2, methane, or an entirely different greenhouse gas heated up planet Earth is a matter of debate among scientists. New research by Dr Daniel Herwartz of the University of Cologne, Professor Dr Andreas Pack of the University of Göttingen, and Professor Dr Thorsten Nagel of the University of Aarhus (Denmark) now suggests that high CO2 levels are a plausible explanation. This would also solve another geoscientific problem: ocean temperatures that were apparently too high. The article "A CO2 greenhouse efficiently warmed the early Earth and decreased seawater 18O/16O before the onset of plate tectonics" appears in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.

A much-debated question in earth science concerns the temperatures of the early oceans. There is evidence that they were very hot. Measurements of oxygen isotopes on very old limestone or siliceous rocks, which serve as geothermometers, indicate seawater temperatures above 70°C. Lower temperatures would only have been possible if the seawater had changed its oxygen isotope composition. However, this was long considered unlikely.

Models from the new study show that high CO2 levels in the atmosphere may provide an explanation, since they would also have caused a change in the ocean's composition. 'High CO2 levels would thus explain two phenomena at once: first, the warm climate on Earth, and second, why geothermometers appear to show hot seawater. Taking into account the different oxygen isotope ratio of seawater, we would arrive at temperatures closer to 40°C,' said Daniel Herwartz of the University of Cologne. It is conceivable that there was also a lot of methane in the atmosphere. But that would not have had any effect on the composition of the ocean. Thus, it would not explain why the oxygen geothermometer indicates temperatures that are too high. 'Both phenomena can only be explained by high levels of CO2,' Herwartz added. The authors estimate the total amount of CO2 to have totalled approximately one bar. That would be as if today's entire atmosphere consisted of CO2.

'Today, CO2 is just a trace gas in the atmosphere. Compared to that, one bar sounds like an absurdly large amount. However, looking at our sister planet Venus with its approximately 90 bar of CO2 puts things into perspective,' explained Andreas Pack from the University of Göttingen. On Earth, CO2 was eventually removed from the atmosphere and the ocean and stored in the form of coal, oil, gas, and black shales as well as in limestone. These carbon reservoirs are mainly located on the continents. However, the young Earth was largely covered by oceans and there were hardly any continents, so the storage capacity for carbon was limited. 'That also explains the enormous CO2 levels of the young Earth from today's perspective. After all, roughly three billion years ago, plate tectonics and the development of land masses in which carbon could be stored over a long period of time was just picking up speed,' explained Thorsten Nagel from Aarhus University.

For the carbon cycle, the onset of plate tectonics changed everything. Large land masses with mountains provided faster silicate weathering, which converted CO2 into limestone. In addition, carbon became effectively trapped in the Earth's mantle as oceanic plates were subducted. Plate tectonics thus caused the CO2 content of the atmosphere to drop sharply. Repeated ice ages show that it became significantly colder on Earth. 'Earlier studies had already indicated that the limestone contents in ancient basalts point to a sharp drop in atmospheric CO2 levels. This fits well with an increase in oxygen isotopes at the same time. Everything indicates that the atmospheric CO2 content declined rapidly after the onset of plate tectonics,' Daniel Herwartz concluded. However, in this context 'rapidly' refers to several hundred million years.

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Beer byproduct mixed with manure proves an excellent pesticide

Byproducts from the beer and agricultural industry have been shown to reduce numbers of root-knot nematodes and increase yields of lettuce crops

FRONTIERS

Research News

 

IMAGE: A PRODUCTIVE LETTUCE YIELD FOLLOWING THE RESEARCHERS' NEW BIODISINFESTATION METHOD. view more 

CREDIT: IMAGE: MAITE GANDARIASBEITIA ET AL

The use of many chemical fumigants in agriculture have been demonstrated to be harmful to human health and the environment and therefore banned from use.

Now, in an effort to reduce waste from the agricultural industry and reduce the amounts of harmful chemicals used, researchers have investigated using organic byproducts from beer production and farming as a potential method to disinfest soils, preserve healthy soil microorganisms and increase crop yields.

In this study published to Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, researchers from the Neiker Basque Institute for Agricultural Research and Development in Spain investigated using agricultural by-products rapeseed cake and beer bagasse (spent beer grains), along with fresh cow manure as two organic biodisinfestation treatments. The lead author Maite Gandariasbeitia explains: "Rapeseed cake and beer bagasse are two potential organic treatments which have shown really positive results in previous studies.

"Their high nitrogen content promotes the activity of beneficial microorganisms in the soil, which helps to break down organic matter like manure and kill off nematodes and other parasites which damage crops."

Gandariasbeitia also highlights how nematodes can negatively impact crop yields: "Root-knot nematodes are a type of common soil parasite which penetrate a plant's root tissue to lay their eggs and this activity causes galls, or knot-like swellings, to form on the root," she says.

"This damage negatively impacts root development and means the crop can't take up nutrients efficiently, slowing plant growth and ultimately, leading to reduced yields for farmers."

To disinfest the soil and reduce these nematode populations, beer bagasse and rapeseed cake were incorporated into the soil with fresh cow manure as a potential organic treatment. After the first crop post-treatment, the researchers found a significant reduction in galling on plant roots.

Next steps for research

Plots also demonstrated increased yields by around 15% compared to the control plots after one year. Additionally, the organic matter treatment boosted populations of beneficial microorganisms in the soils, as demonstrated by a significantly higher soil respiration rate.

The study demonstrates that these agricultural byproducts are an effective treatment for root-knot nematodes and other soil parasites, achieving higher crop yields as well as promoting sustainable food systems to reduce waste from the agricultural industry. Gandariasbeitia highlights that further research is needed to explore other potential organic treatments that could be used in a similar way: "There are still many questions to answer so that we can gain a better understanding of what happens in the soil during and after these biodisinfestation treatments.

"This can help us to really elucidate what characteristics we should be looking for in other potential organic treatments to be effective in tackling soil parasite populations."

CAPTION

Root galling caused by root-knot nematode infestation.

CREDIT

Image: Maite Gandariasbeitia et al

 

Global warming already responsible for one in three heat-related deaths

New estimates suggest Central and South America and South-East Asia most affected regions

LONDON SCHOOL OF HYGIENE & TROPICAL MEDICINE

Research News

 

Between 1991 and 2018, more than a third of all deaths in which heat played a role were attributable to human-induced global warming, according to a new article in Nature Climate Change.

The study, the largest of its kind, was led by the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) and the University of Bern within the Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Collaborative Research Network. Using data from 732 locations in 43 countries around the world it shows for the first time the actual contribution of man-made climate change in increasing mortality risks due to heat.

Overall, the estimates show that 37% of all heat-related deaths in the recent summer periods were attributable to the warming of the planet due to anthropogenic activities. This percentage of heat-related deaths attributed to human-induced climate change was highest in Central and South America (up to 76% in Ecuador or Colombia, for example) and South-East Asia (between 48% to 61%).

Estimates also show the number of deaths from human-induced climate change that occurred in specific cities; 136 additional deaths per year in Santiago de Chile (44.3% of total heat-related deaths in the city), 189 in Athens (26.1%), 172 in Rome (32%), 156 in Tokyo (35.6%), 177 in Madrid (31.9%), 146 in Bangkok (53.4%), 82 in London (33.6%), 141 in New York (44.2%), and 137 in Ho Chi Minh City (48.5%). The authors say their findings are further evidence of the need to adopt strong mitigation policies to reduce future warming, and to implement interventions to protect populations from the adverse consequences of heat exposure.

Dr Ana M. Vicedo-Cabrera, from the University of Bern and first author of the study, said: "We expect the proportion of heat-related deaths to continue to grow if we don't do something about climate change or adapt. So far, the average global temperature has only increased by about 1°C, which is a fraction of what we could face if emissions continue to grow unchecked."

Global warming is affecting our health in several ways, from direct impacts linked to wildfires and extreme weather, to changes in the spread of vector-borne diseases, among others. Perhaps most strikingly is the increase in mortality and morbidity associated with heat. Scenarios of future climate conditions predict a substantial rise in average temperatures, with extreme events such as heatwaves leading to future increases in the related health burden. However, no research has been conducted into what extent these impacts have already occurred in recent decades until now.

This new study focused on man-made global warming through a 'detection & attribution' study that identifies and attributes observed phenomena to changes in climate and weather. Specifically, the team examined past weather conditions simulated under scenarios with and without anthropogenic emissions. This enabled the researchers to separate the warming and related health impact linked with human activities from natural trends. Heat-related mortality was defined as the number of deaths attributed to heat, occurring at exposures higher than the optimum temperature for human health, which varies across locations.

While on average over a third of heat-related deaths are due to human-induced climate change, impact varies substantially across regions. Climate-related heat casualties range from a few dozen to several hundred deaths each year per city, as shown above, depending on the local changes in climate in each area and the vulnerability of its population. Interestingly, populations living in low and middle-income countries, which were responsible for a minor part of anthropogenic emissions in the past, are those most affected.

In the UK, 35% of heat-related deaths could be attributed to human-induced climate change, which corresponds to approximately 82 deaths in London, 16 deaths in Manchester, 20 in West Midlands or 4 in Bristol and Liverpool every summer season.

Professor Antonio Gasparrini from LSHTM, senior author of the study and coordinator of the MCC Network, said: "This is the largest detection & attribution study on current health risks of climate change. The message is clear: climate change will not just have devastating impacts in the future, but every continent is already experiencing the dire consequences of human activities on our planet. We must act now."

The authors acknowledge limitations of the study including being unable to include locations in all world regions--for example, large parts of Africa and South Asia--due to a lack of empirical data.

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For media requests or interviews, please contact press@lshtm.ac.uk

A copy of the embargoed paper is available upon request. Once published the paper will be available here: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01058-x

Notes to Editors

Publication

M. Vicedo-Cabrera, N. Scovronick, F. SeraD. Roye, R. Schneider, A.C. Astrom, Y. Guo, Y. Honda, D. M. Hondula16, R. Abrutzky, S. Tong M. de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio Coelho, P. H. Nascimento Saldiva, E. Lavigne, P. Matus Correa, N. Valdes Ortega , H. Kan , S. Osorio , J. Kysely, A. Urban, H. Orru, E. Indermitte, J. J. K. Jaakkola, N. Ryti , M. Pascal, A. Schneider, K. Katsouyanni, E. Samoli, F. Mayvaneh, A. Entezari, P. Goodman, A. Zeka, P. Michelozzi, F. de'Donato, M. Hashizume , B. Alahmad, M. Hurtado Dia, C. De La Cruz Valencia, A. Overcenco , D. Houthuijs, C. Ameling, S. Rao, F. Di Ruscio, G. Carrasco-Escobar, X. Seposo, S. Silva , J. Madureira, I. H. Holobaca, S. Fratianni, F. Acquaotta, H. Kim , W. Lee, C. Iniguez, B. Forsber, M. S. Ragettli, Y. L. L. Guo, B. Y. Chen, S. Li14, B. Armstrong, A. Aleman, A. Zanobetti, J. Schwartz, T. N. Dang, D. V. Dung, N. Gillett, A. Haines, M. Mengel, V. Huber, and A. Gasparrini. The burden of heat-related mortality attributable to recent human-induced climate change. Nature. DOI: 10.1038/s41558-021-01058-x

The London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM) is a world-leading centre for research, postgraduate studies and continuing education in public and global health. LSHTM has a strong international presence with over 3,000 staff and 4,000 students working in the UK and countries around the world, and an annual research income of £180 million.

LSHTM is one of the highest-rated research institutions in the UK, is partnered with two MRC University Units in The Gambia and Uganda, and was named University of the Year in the Times Higher Education Awards 2016. Our mission is to improve health and health equity in the UK and worldwide; working in partnership to achieve excellence in public and global health research, education and translation of knowledge into policy and practice. http://www.lshtm.ac.uk

 

The price is right: Modeling economic growth in a zero-emission society

Researchers analyze whether it is possible to simultaneously grow the economy while not producing more pollution

TOKYO UNIVERSITY OF SCIENCE

Research News

 

Pollution from manufacturing is now widespread, affecting all regions in the world, with serious ecological, economic, and political consequences. Heightened public concern and scrutiny have led to numerous governments considering policies that aim to lower pollution and improve environmental qualities. Inter-governmental agreements such as the Paris Agreement and the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals all focus on lowering emissions of pollution. Specifically, they aim to achieve a "zero-emission society," which means that pollution is cleaned up as it is produced, while also reducing pollution (This idea of dealing with pollution is referred to as the "kindergarten rule.")

Of course, any efforts to achieve this goal require monetary investment and changes to manufacturing strategies, which, many worry, could hurt the economy. Now, a modeling study conducted by researchers from Tokyo University of Science and The Shoko Chukin Bank, Japan, published in the Journal of Cleaner Production, shows that it is possible to achieve economic growth simultaneously with environmental preservation. "There are existing models that look at how economies fluctuate under various conditions, such as differing environmental quality or tax rates, but these models haven't examined the effects of implementing the kindergarten rule," Prof. Hideo Noda, the study's lead author, explained. "So we thought it was important to extend the model and include a condition where the hypothetical society spends a part of its GDP to achieve zero emissions. Looking at emissions is also more tangible and easier to grasp than a vaguer concept of 'environmental quality.'"

The researchers used an economic model that allows for movement back and forth between two stages: a no-innovation phase and an innovation phase. The key to this model is the importance of innovation; previous models that focus on the environment and the economy did not account for innovation (e.g., research and development) as a major driver of economic growth in most developed nations. Acknowledging this connection is essential for improving our knowledge regarding how environmental problems and economic growth are linked.

When researchers included rules for the zero-emission society, the model indicated that it was compatible with economic growth (i.e., a sustained GDP growth), despite a portion of the GDP being dedicated to reducing pollution. For this to work, however, the model says that the GDP needs to be above a certain level. Additionally, the amount of GDP allocated to lowering pollution must be flexible. Researchers also observed that under the no-innovation phase, GDP growth is higher and the amount spent on pollution reduction decreases faster. In contrast, under the innovation phase, GDP growth is lower and the decrease in amount spent combating pollution is also slower.

According to Prof. Noda, this work provides important theoretical groundwork for policy, because currently, the relationship between zero emissions and economic growth isn't well understood. "Yet, this topic is extremely relevant to any policy push for sustainability--for example, one section of the UN's Sustainable Development Goals explicitly focuses on economic growth," he explains. "Our model should help persuade the leaders of some countries that it is feasible to reduce emissions without tanking the economy."

That, Prof. Noda hopes, may in turn make leaders more eager to implement the changes that are urgently needed to address global environmental crises like climate change.

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About The Tokyo University of Science

Tokyo University of Science (TUS) is a well-known and respected university, and the largest science-specialized private research university in Japan, with four campuses in central Tokyo and its suburbs and in Hokkaido. Established in 1881, the university has continually contributed to Japan's development in science through inculcating the love for science in researchers, technicians, and educators.

With a mission of "Creating science and technology for the harmonious development of nature, human beings, and society", TUS has undertaken a wide range of research from basic to applied science. TUS has embraced a multidisciplinary approach to research and undertaken intensive study in some of today's most vital fields. TUS is a meritocracy where the best in science is recognized and nurtured. It is the only private university in Japan that has produced a Nobel Prize winner and the only private university in Asia to produce Nobel Prize winners within the natural sciences field.

Website: https://www.tus.ac.jp/en/mediarelations/

About Professor Hideo Noda from Tokyo University of Science

Dr. Hideo Noda is a Professor at the Department of Business Economics, School of Management at Tokyo University of Science. Prof. Noda has a PhD in Economics from Kyushu University, Japan. He is the sole author of this paper, and has over 40 research publications to his credit. His chief research areas include economic growth, infrastructure management, and work-life balance.

Funding information

This study was supported in part by a Grant-in-Aid for Scientific Research (C) (20K01639) from the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science.

Has COVID-19 caused Canadians to cut down on smoking? Expert says yes

An expert in public health and tobacco control is pointing to the COVID-19 pandemic as a factor in Canada's declining smoking rates.

Patchaanan Worrapatchareeroj\Getty

University of Waterloo public health professor David Hammond said the reduction in Canadian smoking over the last year -- as found by his own research as well as a recent StatCan report -- was a direct result of health concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic and years of anti-tobacco messaging from the federal government.
According to Hammond, the declining trend was also felt by the country's vaping industry as well, noting 2020 as one of the first years to see a levelling off in vaping among adults and kids.

Read more: Quitting smoking could help protect against coronavirus, experts say

"You know, most of us are at home, quite frankly, it's just not as cool to step outside on the porch and have a smoke with your mom as it is with your friends or vape with your mom or dad," said Hammond.

"So I think between health concerns about COVID, the link between smoking and vaping and maybe the increased risk of COVID severity, that has something to do with it."

Hammond also noted several policies that Canada put in place in the past decade like standardized cigarette packaging and the banning of menthol cigarettes.

"It's an accumulation of those things and that we just don't have many young people taking up smoking," he said.

Video: Experimentation driving youth vaping rates: Canadian Vaping Association

According to data from a StatCan survey of 8,112 people taken between December 2020 and January 2021, smoking saw a decline from 2019 -- the most significant of which was among those aged 20 to 24 -- with an overall five per cent decrease.

The March report also found the prevalence of vaping across all age groups in the past month had stayed relatively the same since 2019.

Fourteen per cent of teenagers between 15 to 19 reported having vaped in the past month, while those aged 20 to 24 were 13 per cent. Those rates were both 15 per cent in 2019, while the monthly prevalence of vaping in ages 25 and older stayed the same at three per cent.

How the pandemic is impacting youth & vaping

The declining trend has also manifested in a decline in the country's tobacco sales over the past few years. Monthly cigarette sales from 2010 to 2019 averaged roughly between 1.7 to 1.8 billion units, and decreased to about 1.4 to 1.5 billion from 2020 to April 2021.

Patients contracting COVID-19 have seen symptoms particularly associated with the lungs, such as coughing and shortness of breath. Smokers have been warned to be a particularly at-risk group to the disease.

While trends in the industry have been looking downward, Hammond warned vaping prevalence was in the midst of a bounce back.

Read more: New Jersey allows smokers to get early coronavirus vaccine. Here’s why

"We're starting to see some evidence that there is a little bit of a rebound in terms of vaping," he said. "It's a question people are asking about cannabis use, about vaping, about what's happening with our diet and physical activity.

"We've seen so many changes with COVID. Are those short-term or what's going to be the long-term impact?"

 

Ethnic diversity helps identify more genomic regions linked to diabetes-related traits

By including multi-ethnic participants, a largescale genetic study has identified more regions of the genome linked to type 2 diabetes-related traits than if the research had been conducted in Europeans alone.

UNIVERSITY OF EXETER

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By including multi-ethnic participants, a largescale genetic study has identified more regions of the genome linked to type 2 diabetes-related traits than if the research had been conducted in Europeans alone.

The international MAGIC collaboration, made up of more than 400 global academics, conducted a genome-wide association meta-analysis led by the University of Exeter. Now published in Nature Genetics, their findings demonstrate that expanding research into different ancestries yields more and better results, as well as ultimately benefitting global patient care.

Up to now, nearly 87 per cent of genomic research of this type has been conducted in Europeans. This means that the way these findings are implemented may not optimally benefit people from non-European ancestries.

The team analysed data across a wide range of cohorts, encompassing more than 280,000 people without diabetes. Researchers looked at glycaemic traits, which are used to diagnose diabetes and monitor sugar and insulin levels in the blood.

The researchers incorporated 30 percent of the overall cohort with individuals of East Asian, Hispanic, African-American, South Asian and sub-Saharan African origin. By doing so, they discovered 24 more loci - or regions of the genome -linked to glycaemic traits than if they had conducted the research in Europeans alone.

Professor Inês Barroso, of the University of Exeter, who led the research, said: "Type 2 diabetes is an increasingly huge global health challenge- with most of the biggest increases occurring outside of Europe. While there are a lot of shared genetic factors between different countries and cultures, our research tells us that they do differ, in ways that we need to understand. It's critical to ensuring we can deliver a precision diabetes medicine approach that optimises treatment and care for everyone."

First author Dr Ji Chen, of the University of Exeter, said: "We discovered 24 additional regions of the genome by including cohorts which were more ethnically diverse than we would have done if we'd restricted our work to Europeans. Beyond the moral arguments for ensuring research is reflective of global populations, our work demonstrates that this approach generates better results."

The team found that though some loci were not detected in all ancestries, they were still useful to capture information about the glycaemic trait in that ancestry. Co-author Cassandra Spracklen, Assistant Professor at the University of Massachusetts-Amherst, said: "Our findings matter because we're moving towards using genetic scores to weigh up a person's risk of diabetes. We know that scores developed exclusively in individuals of one ancestry don't work well in people of a different ancestry. This is important as increasingly healthcare is moving towards a more precise approach. Failing to account for genetic variation according to ancestry will impact our ability to accurately diagnose diabetes."

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The study is entitled 'The Trans-Ancestral Genomic Architecture of Glycemic Traits', and is published in Nature Genetics.