‘Merciless’ temperatures push Moscow to hottest June day in 142 years, as heatwave hits Russia

Harry Cockburn
Wed, June 23, 2021

Image taken by the EU’s Copernicus Sentinel-3 satellite shows land surface temperatures reaching nearly 50C around the town of Verkhojansk (European Union, Copernicus Sentinel-3 imagery)

A heatwave has pushed temperatures in Moscow to the highest recorded in June in 142 years.

On Monday the temperature hit 31.9C in the Russian capital and the day before, the city saw its hottest midsummers’ day in 65 years when it reached 31.1C, according to the state-run Tass news agency.

The city’s all time record high temperature, of 34.7C set in 1901, could be broken in the coming days, forecasters said, with temperatures expected to reach up to 36C.

According to the Phobos meteorological centre’s Evgeny Tishkovets, across the Central Russian Plain, “not a drop of rain water will fall from the sky, and the June sun will continue to burn mercilessly”.

On average Russia is experiencing temperature rises 2.5 times faster than the rest of the world, as the climate crisis has exacerbated heating at the Earth’s poles.

St Petersburg, 400 miles north west of Moscow, has seen heat records broken on three consecutive days. The city saw temperatures rise to 30.7C on Monday, beating a previous high of 30.4C, recorded in 2006.

Similar temperatures have been recorded in the Arctic.

On Saturday temperatures rose to 31.1C in Tyumyati in the republic of Sakha, also known as Yakutia, which is 2,500 miles north east of Moscow and inside the Arctic circle, The Moscow Times reported.

Meanwhile, on Siberia’s Kotelny Island – one of the northernmost pieces of land on Earth – temperatures hit a record-breaking 17.6C, also on Saturday.

In Saskylah, a small community also in the republic of Sakha, the air temperature reached 31.9C, the highest record since 1936, according to data obtained by the European Union’s Copernicus satellites.

The Sentinel-3A and Sentinel-3B satellites showed the land surface temperature in Siberia was above 35 C, and a peak of 48C was recorded near the town of Verkhojansk, in the republic of Sakha.

The soaring temperatures follow a long dry period, and are of particular concern in the Yakutian region, where 64 forest fires were active as of Tuesday, the regional government said in a news release.

Governor Aisen Nikolaev said the current climate was a key factor leading to the rapid increase in the number of fires.

The government said 1,586 firefighters and 139 pieces of equipment were currently being used to tackle the blazes, The Barents Observer reported.

Officials predict that the current “abnormally hot weather” will last until the end of June.

Dry thunderstorms have also ignited new fires in recent days, they said, but added that so far none of the fires are currently threatening any communities or infrastructure.

US meteorologist Zack Labe noted that the heatwave was just part of a longer warming pattern recorded recently. He tweeted: “Temperatures from Svalbard to parts of the Siberian Arctic have averaged up to 5C above the 1981-2010 climate average during the last 12 months.”

Arctic heat roasts Finland and Russia, melts sea ice

Sea ice disappears from the Laptev Sea north of Russia in June 2021. 

NASA via Axios Visuals

Andrew Freedman
Wed, June 23, 2021

An intense and expansive heat wave has gripped parts of Siberia, northwestern Russia and Scandinavia, inducing a record plunge in sea ice cover in the Laptev Sea, which is part of the Arctic Ocean.

Why it matters: Due largely to human activities such as fossil fuel burning and deforestation, the Arctic is warming at a rate more than twice as fast as the rest of the globe.

Sweeping changes there are reverberating beyond in the form of melting permafrost, increased wildfires and altered weather patterns.

In addition, sea ice melt is turning the Arctic into an increasingly competitive space for shipping, oil and gas drilling, and military posturing between the U.S., Russia and China.

The details: In parts of north-central Siberia, temperatures have reached 45°F above average for this time of year, while other parts of Arctic Russia and Scandinavia have baked in record heat as well.

Some of these same areas saw record heat and wildfires grip the landscape and melt adjacent sea ice last year.

In Helsinki, the temperature did not drop below 72.5°F on the night of June 21-22, setting the national record for the highest minimum temperature recorded in June.

Several locations in Finland set monthly June high-temperature records, and the national June record almost fell Tuesday.

Record heat also affected Belarus and Latvia.

What's next: Scientists are keeping close tabs on climate trends in Siberia due to the massive amounts of carbon and methane stored in now-melting areas of permafrost.

Also, researchers are monitoring the 2021 Arctic sea ice melt, which will hit its annual minimum extent in September or early October.

UPDATED

'What is rightfully ours': Socialist candidate India Walton upsets incumbent Democratic mayor of Buffalo

Chloe Xiang
·Reporter
Wed, June 23, 2021, 

India Walton, a nurse and progressive activist, upset four-term incumbent Byron Brown in Tuesday’s Democratic primary in Buffalo, N.Y., in a bid to become the first socialist mayor of a major American city since 1960.

Walton, who would also become the first female mayor elected in Buffalo, must still win in the November general election — though the last time the city elected a Republican to lead it was during the presidency of John F. Kennedy. There is currently no Republican seeking the office.

While absentee votes have not yet been counted, the Associated Press declared Walton the winner in the race against Brown. She currently holds a lead of 7 percentage points, with 52 percent of the vote to Brown’s 45. Brown has so far refused to concede defeat, however, until “each and every vote is counted.”

India Walton in December 2020. (Lindsay DeDario/Reuters)

Walton was endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America, the Working Families Party and People’s Action. Challenging Brown, who had the advantages of both incumbency and fundraising, she emphasized the need for change and new leadership.

“Folks are ready for change,” Walton said in an interview earlier this month, according to Politico. “The mayor’s been in office for 16 years, and we have not seen significant improvements in many of our communities, especially those that are primarily occupied by Black people and brown people and poor people."

In her victory speech, Walton said the progressive wing of the Democratic Party is gaining momentum in the state. “We set out to not only change Buffalo but to change the way progressive politics are viewed in upstate New York,” she said.

Walton campaigns to replace Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown in December. (Lindsay DeDario/Reuters)

“Today is only the beginning,” she continued. “This is about building the infrastructure to challenge every damn seat — I’m talking about committee seats, school board, common council. All that we are doing is claiming what is rightfully ours. We are the workers, we do the work. We deserve a government that works with and for us.”

Walton has promised she will sign a tenants’ bill of rights that would institute rent control and create a tenant advocate; remove police from responding to most mental health calls and establish a new response to mental health calls; and declare Buffalo a sanctuary city that would safeguard undocumented immigrants, all in her first 100 days in office. Her long-term goals include increasing city funding for public schools and expanding neighborhood community development.

In a Wednesday interview with Buffalo’s WGRZ following her victory, Walton emphasized how her platform as a democratic socialist differs from that of a traditional Democrat. “That means we put people first, that means we prioritize the working class, the marginalized, the often unseen, unheard people over profits, corporations and developers,” she said.

She went on to emphasize that she does not consider herself a politician, and that what the people need is someone who understands “the challenges that average people face.”

The last socialist politician to serve as the mayor of a big U.S. city was Frank Zeidler, who was elected to lead Milwaukee in 1948 and served until 1960.

Walton, who used a vigorous grassroots campaign to fundraise, has also promised to incorporate the citizens of Buffalo into her mayoral term. “We are going to co-govern. We are doing this together. In the beginning, I said I’m taking all of my people with me, and that is exactly what I intend to do,” she said.

Buffalo appears to have elected a socialist mayor in big upset over 4-term incumbent

Peter Weber, Senior editor

POLITICO

Wed, June 23, 2021

Buffalo, New York John Normile/Getty Images

Democratic primary voters in Buffalo, New York, appear to have selected nurse and political newcomer India Walton over four-term incumbent Mayor Byron Brown on Tuesday, in what Politico calls "a stunning loss for one of the most prominent figures in New York's Democratic establishment." Walton, a socialist, leads Brown by 1,507 votes with all in-person votes tallied, a number about equal to the absentee ballots remaining to be counted. Brown has not conceded the race.

Assuming Walton keeps her lead, she is the presumptive mayor-elect. Buffalo hasn't picked a Republican mayor since the Kennedy administration, and Republicans didn't even field a candidate this year. 

Walton would be the first woman ever elected mayor in Buffalo as well as the first socialist, and Buffalo, with 260,000 people, is on track to be the largest city led by a socialist since Milwaukee's Frank Zeidler left office in 1960. 

Walton was endorsed by the Democratic Socialists of America and also the Working Families Party, an influential progressive third party in New York.

Brown, a former state senator and recent chairman of the state Democratic Party, was first elected mayor in 2005. He is a close ally of embattled Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D), appearing with him at four press briefings in the past few months, Politico notes, which is "twice as many as any other elected official in the state."   

India Walton, a self-professed socialist and political newcomer, will defeat four-term incumbent Byron Brown in the Democratic primary for mayor of Buffalo, New York, CNN projected Wednesday.

© LINDSAY DEDARIO/REUTERS India Walton poses as she campaigns in Buffalo, New York, in December 2020.

Walton, who's likely to become Buffalo's first female mayor, is a nurse and community organizer. She's been endorsed by organizations like the Democratic Socialists of America and the progressive Working Families Party.

When CNN's Brianna Keilar asked Walton earlier Wednesday if she was surprised about the outcome so far, she said, "Not really."

"We set out about a year ago to do exactly what we did," Walton said on CNN's "New Day." "We knew that this race was going to require help from outside of our local geographic area, we knew that we needed to garner national attention to challenge a 16-year heavily entrenched incumbent, and the people spoke."

Asked how she plans to implement socialism in Buffalo, Walton said her plan "is to put our resources into community into neighborhoods and govern in a deeply democratic way that the people who are governed have say over the decision making process and how resources are deployed in our community."

Questioned on how that would be different from previous leadership and initiatives, she said, "It's a complete 180."

"We have lived through decades of the trickledown theory believing that if you build it they will come and we have not built anything many things at all for the folks who have stuck out economic downturn population job loss in the Buffalo community so we are looking forward to doing things differently and I'm so excited we are ushering a new era of progressive leadership in Buffalo, New York."

Walton was a mother of three children with varying medical issues at the age of 19, and delved briefly into her past and how she came to be a nurse.

Of her personal journey, and her pathway to mayorship, she said, "Just believing that anything is possible and what you set your mind to you can do it, and we're never alone."

California’s Drought Is So Bad That Almond Farmers Are Ripping Out Trees

Elizabeth Elkin
Wed, June 23, 2021

(Bloomberg) -- Christine Gemperle is about to do what almond farmers fear the most: rip out her trees early.

Water is so scarce on her orchard in California’s Central Valley that she’s been forced to let a third of her acreage go dry. In the irrigated areas, the lush, supple trees are dewy in the early morning, providing some relief from the extreme heat. Walking over to the dry side, you can actually feel the temperature start to go up as you’re surrounded by the brittle, lifeless branches that look like they could crumble into dust.

“Farming’s very risky,” said Gemperle, who will undertake the arduous process of pulling out all her trees on the orchard this fall, replacing them with younger ones that don’t need as much moisture. It’s a tough decision. Almond trees are typically a 25-year investment, and if it weren’t for the drought, these trees could’ve made it through at least another growing season, if not two. Now, they’ll be ground up into mulch.

“I don’t think a lot of people understand just how risky this business is, and it’s a risk that’s associated with something you can’t control at all: The weather,” she said.

It’s a stark reminder of the devastating toll that the drought gripping the West will take on U.S. agriculture, bringing with it the risk of food inflation. Dairy farms are sending cows to slaughter as they run short of feed and water. Fields are sitting bare, because it’s too costly to irrigate the rows of cauliflower, strawberries and lettuce that usually flourish in abundance. Meanwhile, fieldworkers are being put into life-threatening conditions as the brutal temperatures increase the risk of heat stroke and dehydration.

The famed farming valleys of California were once romanticized as an Eden for the Joad family escaping the Oklahoma dust bowl in John Steinbeck’s “Grapes of Wrath.” The state’s more than 69,000 farms and ranches supply over a third of U.S. vegetables and two-thirds of its fruit. The annual almond harvest accounts for about 80% of global production. But after years of what seems like permanent dryness, some growers are starting to wonder if Steinbeck’s story will start playing out in reverse, with unstoppable drought posing an existential threat to the future of agriculture in the state.

DEAD ALMOND TREES IN FIELD WITH LIVE TREES LEFT 

“Are we going to be able to farm here?,” asks Sara Tashker, who’s worked at Green Gulch Farm just outside of San Francisco for almost 20 years. This is the first time she’s ever seen the reservoirs the farm depends on to water its lettuce, broccoli, cauliflower and cabbage, not fill with winter rain.

With so little water, there was no way around planting less, so total acreage got cut by about 25% from last year. And the crops are getting put into the ground closer together, in about half the typical amount of space. It’s an attempt to make the root structure denser and keep moisture in the soil. The limited spacing means fieldworkers are having to cultivate by hand, instead of using tractors. But in the midst of an early heat wave, Tashker can’t help but wonder if the new methods will be enough.

“Is there going to be enough water? Are we going to be able to adapt? Is it going to be too dangerous to live in these fire ecosystems? Is this just going to become too expensive?,” she said.




Of course, this isn’t just a California problem. Climate change is here and it’s wreaking havoc on food production across the world. This year in Brazil, the world’s biggest exporter of coffee, sugar and orange juice, the rainy season came and went with very little rain. Water reserves are running so low that farmers are worried they’ll run out of supplies that are needed to keep crops alive over the next several months, the typical dry period. In recent years, drought has plagued wheat growers in Europe and livestock producers in Australia, while torrential downpours flooded rice fields and stands of palm oil trees in Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia.

All told, about 21% of growth for agricultural output has been lost since the 1960s because of climate change, according to research led by Cornell University and published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

Meanwhile, this year’s production problems come at a time when the world is already saddled with the highest global grocery costs in about a decade and hunger is on the rise. Extreme weather is combining with the economic shocks of Covid-19 and political conflicts to leave 34 million people on the brink of famine, United Nations’ World Food Programme has warned.

For California, “over time, unless something changes in regard to weather patterns, ultimately it’s gonna be fewer, probably larger farming operations controlling most of the water,” said Curt Covington, senior director of institutional credit AgAmerica Lending LLC, one of the largest non-bank agricultural lenders in the U.S.

“And the price of those commodities would typically increase,” he said.

California gets the vast majority of its precipitation during the winter months, when the state’s mountains get blanketed with snow and rain fills the reservoirs that farms and hydropower plants depend on. This past winter, the moisture never came. From May 2020 to April 2021, the state posted its driest-ever 12-month period.

Meteorologists have a saying: Drought begets drought. When land is dry, the sun’s energy is focused on heating the air instead of evaporating water. That raises temperatures, which leads to more dryness, which allows drought to spread even further. That’s why the brutally parched conditions of this year could spell additional trouble down the road, especially if next winter isn’t a wet one.

“It’s been a couple of years of pretty solid drying, and so the whole region out there, from a fruit and vegetable perspective, is at risk,” said Drew Lerner, president of World Weather Inc. in Kansas.“ A lot of pressure is going to be put on for better rainfall during the winter next year, in order to prevent a larger crisis.”

California’s drought could have significant impacts on both the production and price of crops, according to analysis by Gro Intelligence. Tree crops, like almonds, avocados and citrus, are particularly vulnerable to dry conditions. It’s still too early to say with any certainty how much prices could increase, but avocados might be providing an early warning sign -- they’re already up about 10% from last year. That could mean that prices for nuts and even products like almond milk could increase down the road if harvests continue to be constrained.

Meanwhile, almond farmer Gemperle is ready to invest $250,000 on a “Cadillac” water system that will more efficiently irrigate about 92 acres of her orchard. Between that and the younger trees getting planted, she sees an opportunity for water savings on her farm, at least for a few seasons.

Still, it’s unclear when she’ll recoup the cost of the new water system, especially if almond prices stay low. A massive crop last year has kept the market well supplied.

Farming “has never been riskier,” Gemperle said in an email.

“But farmers are tough, they are survivors and they don’t like to give up. They can’t, farming defines them, it’s in their blood.”

More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com

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Boris Johnson dismisses warning ‘hundreds of thousands’ will die from tropical diseases after aid cuts

Rob Merrick
Wed, June 23, 2021,

(PA) ANDREW MITCHELL REBEL TORYMP

Boris Johnson has dismissed a warning that “hundreds of thousands of people” will die from tropical diseases because of his aid cuts – despite it coming from the World Health Organisation.

The prime minister also refused to grant an early vote on the controversy, despite being ordered by the Commons Speaker to allow MPs to have their say.

Tory rebel Andrew Mitchell protested that the cut would lead to a staggering 280 million drugs, tablets and vaccines being “burnt and destroyed” – writing off Britain’s past investment.

“This one act will lead to the maiming, blinding, disruption of lives and deaths of hundreds of thousands of people,” the former International Development Secretary warned.

But Mr Johnson – while noting Mr Mitchell’s “expertise” on the subject – nevertheless insisted he was wrong about £4bn-a-year aid cuts.

Pointing to the aid budget still standing at £10bn, despite the economic emergency caused by the pandemic, he told the MP he did not “accept the characterisation” he had given.

“People of this country should be very proud of what we are achieving,” the Commons was told.

Earlier this month the Speaker Lindsay Hoyle attacked Mr Johnson for refusing to allow the vote promised last year – because, the rebels say, he faces certain defeat.

Mr Mitchell urged the prime minister to “accept and respect” the Speaker’s instruction with a “meaningful vote” before the summer recess, starting in late July.

But, instead, Mr Johnson referred only to a general “estimates” vote – on all government spending – which would not be a specific clash on the aid cuts.

The World Health Organisation warned last week that 280 million lifesaving tablets are likely to expire and have to be incinerated, because UK aid money has been stopped.

It will leave millions of the world’s poorest people at risk from so-called “neglected tropical diseases”, including elephantiasis, trachoma and Guinea Worm.

They are easily preventable but, without treatment, “kill, blind, disfigure and maim”, WHO warned.

It is among numerous bodies agencies alarmed by the impact of slashing aid from 0.7 to 0.5 per cent of national output – breaking a Tory manifesto pledge and, possibly, the law.

The Tory rebels are demanding that the aid cut is reversed from the start of next year, but ministers have hinted it will last for much longer than that.

In April, the foreign secretary Dominic Raab, asked if the cut must be for one year only, to comply with the law – if no fresh legislation is passed – replied: “I don’t think it is quite as straightjacketed as that.”

And he repeated that funding would only be restored “when the fiscal situation allows” – amid huge pressure to hike spending on social care, education and elsewhere.

Abolishing Dfid had negative effect on aid spending, watchdog finds

Kate Devlin
Tue, June 22, 2021

Boris Johnson (PA)

The controversial decision to scrap a dedicated government department has had a negative effect on overseas aid spending, an official watchdog found.

Bringing overseas aid within the Foreign Office slowed down moves to boost the impact of billions of pounds worth of investment and assure value for money for the taxpayer, a report published today warns.

There was widespread outcry when Boris Johnson’s government announced plans to scrap the Department for International Development (Dfid) last June.

Experts warned the move would hit the world’s poorest just as they were facing the challenge of fighting the coronavirus pandemic.

But foreign secretary Dominic Raab pledged that the move would make aid spending more effective.

He said he wanted to improve transparency and accountability and “relentlessly focus” on areas that would deliver the most value.

In its report the Independent Commission for Aid (Icai) warned that the merger, as well as a subsequent announcement that the UK planned to slash its overseas aid budget in the wake of the Covid-19 crisis, had held back progress.

Icai’s chief commissioner, Dr Tamsyn Barton, said: “On the one hand, we have seen impressive improvements as a result of ICAI’s engagement with organisations delivering UK aid.

“However, we have also observed that the turbulence created by Covid-19 and two associated processes of major cuts to programmes, together with the merger of the Foreign and Commonwealth Office with the Department for International Development, have set back progress which was under way last year.”

She added: “A cause for concern in this context has been a reduction in open engagement in the follow-up process. While it may be that this is a result of overload at an exceptionally busy time, transparency is key to learning, and given the increased focus on ICAI’s role in enabling UK aid to learn and improve, it is more important than ever before.”

The report was part of a follow up process by the Icai, checking on progress one year on from a series of recommendations it made for improvements. Dr Barton said: “Since we found inadequate progress... we will return next year in the hope of seeing a more encouraging picture”.

Earlier this year the Icai cast doubt on the government’s claim to be slashing aid to China by 95 per cent, saying that only a fraction of the budget was being cut.

An FCDO spokesperson said: "We are committed to full transparency, and throughout the pandemic have continued to publish our aid spending for each project online so anyone can see it.

“The seismic impact of the pandemic meant we focused resources towards our Covid-19 response to help the most vulnerable. We have provided documents and information to ICAI as part of their follow up review and continue to focus on maintaining spending transparency."

Britain risks missing climate targets due to lack of policies -advisers

FILE PHOTO: Wind turbines are seen at Mynydd Portref Wind Farm near Hendreforgan in South Wales

Wed, June 23, 2021, 

By Susanna Twidale

LONDON (Reuters) - Britain's lack of policies to meet net zero emissions by 2050 is jeopardising its chance of meeting the target, the country's climate advisers said in a progress report on Thursday.

Britain in 2019 became the G7 first member to set a net zero target, which will require wholesale changes in the way that Britons travel, eat and consume electricity.

The country is also hosting international climate talks in November in Glasgow, where countries are expected to outline plans to meet the Paris climate agreement to keep global warming under 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit).

"The targets (Britain) set are not going to be achieved by magic. Surprisingly little has been done so far to deliver on them," said Chris Stark, chief executive of the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) in a briefing with journalists. Graphic: Britain's progress towards meeting net zero climate target: https://fingfx.thomsonreuters.com/gfx/ce/nmovaexerva/Pasted%20image%201624436519458.png

Britain's greenhouse gas emissions have fallen almost 50% since 1990 largely due to an increase in renewable power such as wind and solar, and a move away from polluting coal.

However, a rebound in emissions is expected in 2021 following a sharp fall in 2020 due to restrictions on homes and businesses to limit the spread of the coronavirus.

The government plans to ban the sale of new cars and vans powered wholly by petrol and diesel from 2030 and launched subsidy schemes to increase renewable power, but measures do not go far enough, the CCC said.

The government should phase out gas-fired power generation by 2035 unless it is fitted with technology to capture and store emissions and new home boilers sold from 2025 should also be able to use hydrogen, the CCC said in a raft of recommendations.

It said Britons should be encouraged to reduce meat consumption and the country should apply a carbon tax or minimum carbon standards for products imported from abroad.

Failure to publish a clear strategy soon will also undermine Britain's ability to encourage other countries to set tougher climate goals at the Glasgow talks, the CCC said.

(Reporting By Susanna Twidale; editing by David Evans)

Gulf between PM's promises and action on climate change, advisory group warns


Roger Harrabin - BBC environment analyst
Wed, June 23, 2021

A dried up reservoir in the Peak District

There is a gulf between Boris Johnson's words and deeds on climate change, an advisory group has warned.

The Climate Change Committee says the prime minister's "remarkable" climate leadership is undermined by inadequate policies and poor implementation.

The government says its net zero strategy, due in Autumn, will show where carbon cuts will be applied.

But the CCC says that, at current progress, only 20% of the UK's ambitions up to 2035 will be achieved.

Net zero refers to reducing emissions of greenhouse gases as much as possible and then balancing out any remaining releases by absorbing an equivalent amount from the atmosphere - by, for example, planting trees.


UK warned it is unprepared for climate chaos


Climate change 'driving UK's extreme weather'


Extreme weather causes major global losses in 2020

The committee complains that the public has not been engaged to make changes essential for protecting the climate. The areas in which this has not happened are:

Meat and dairy

The CCC says people should be asked to eat 20% less meat and dairy produce by 2030, and 35% less by 2050. This will improve health and save money as well as emissions.

Cow

Heating

Sales of new gas boilers should be stopped by 2035. People will mostly convert to heat pumps instead. This will involve disruption - and the CCC says ministers will have to subsidise the installation cost.

Power bills

Committee members want to see taxes taken off clean electricity - and maybe shifted on to more polluting gas - although power bills for poor households should not rise.

Flying

Frequent fliers will need to be curbed, the CCC believes. Even if low-carbon planes are developed, the UK still cannot let demand for aviation grow unconstrained.

Joining in

People will need to be consulted over changes ahead - perhaps by groups such as the UK climate assembly.

Pylon

The report says the government currently lacks policies on these issues and many others. Waste and low-carbon heat networks are said to need policies too.

The committee chairman Lord Deben said the prime minister's commitments on the international stage to cut emissions 78% by 2035 are "remarkable decisions".

He added that the objective of achieving near zero emissions by 2050 sets a major example to other nations.

"The trouble," he said, is that the delivery has not been there. Almost all things that should have happened have either been delayed or not hit the mark. They need to step up very rapidly."

The CCC's chief executive Chris Stark said he was "very concerned by the gulf between promises and actions".

His report laid down some fundamental principles for the journey towards a near zero-carbon economy.

It urges the Treasury to protect the poorest from the cost of climate policies. It says: "The net zero strategy must be underpinned by an approach that distributes the costs, savings and wider benefits of decarbonisation fairly.

The government has plans for a net zero aviation strategy

"It must encourage action across society, while protecting vulnerable people and companies at risk of adverse impacts."

A government spokesman said: "Any suggestion we have been slow to deliver climate action is widely off the mark. Over the past three decades, we have driven down emissions by 44% - the fastest reduction of any G7 country.

A really simple guide to climate change

"We have set some of the most ambitious targets in the world for the future.

"In recent months, we've made clear with record investment in wind power, a new UK Emissions Trading Scheme, £5.2bn investment in flood and sea defences, clear plans to decarbonise heavy industry and North Sea oil, and businesses pledging to become net zero by 2050 or earlier.

Temperature curve

"Our strategies this year will set out more of the very policies the Climate Change Committee is calling for as we redouble our efforts to end the UK's contribution to climate change."

But environmental group Friends of the Earth said: "The committee's criticisms are spot on. Without a detailed strategy for combating the climate crisis, government promises to decarbonise the economy are simply more hot air.

"With no climate action plan and his government's support for more roads, runways and an overseas gas project, Boris Johnson risks being a laughing stock at the UN climate summit [which the UK is hosting]."

The CCC insists ministers must commit all policies to a "net zero test" to ensure that decisions are compatible with the emissions targets.

But there is a Whitehall logjam of decarbonisation initiatives in the pipeline. They include the Environment Bill and several strategies for different sectors, such as a transport decarbonisation plan and a net zero aviation strategy.

Mr Stark says the environment Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs is lagging with policies, and the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government is failing to integrate climate change into the Planning Bill.

All these policies, though, are over-shadowed by the delayed Treasury net zero review, which will determine how much cash is invested into the projected zero-carbon economy.

Some key policies are being delayed by the Treasury, and environmentalists fear that the Chancellor Rishi Sunak may be jockeying for influence with the climate sceptic wing of the Conservative Party by withholding funds needed for the PM's "green revolution".

It is a huge challenge for the Treasury, which will also need to take into account another recent CCC report warning that the nation unprepared for the inevitable impact of a heating climate on the UK.

Follow Roger on Twitter.

WE NEED INTERNATIONALISM & SOCIALISM
World Bank vows to keep board apprised of climate action progress



FILE PHOTO: Wildflowers bloom on a hill overlooking a fjord near the south Greenland town of Narsaq

Andrea Shalal
Tue, June 22, 2021, 

WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The World Bank on Tuesday agreed to boost its spending on climate change to 35% from 28% and to provide annual progress reports to its board after its draft climate change action plan came under fire for lacking a clear implementation strategy.

The bank, the largest source of climate finance for developing countries, said it would also publicly release a roadmap to show how it will help those nations meet their Paris climate accord targets.

Bank officials pledged to provide the board with regular updates, with details to be included in an addendum to the plan, Genevieve Connors, who oversees tracking and reporting of climate finance for the World Bank, told Reuters.

"This is really transformational in the way we do business," she said. "One of the central differences of this (climate change action plan) is that we as the World Bank Group have now elevated climate to be central to everything that we do."

The World Bank released some details of its five-year plan in April, saying it would help developing countries reduce greenhouse gas emissions by aiding the transition out of coal. But it drew fire for stopping short of halting all funding of fossil fuel projects.

The bank's plan calls for increase the amount it dedicates to climate finance, which has totaled $83 billion over the past five years, peaking at $21.4 billion in 2020.

Environmental campaigners took aim at the new plan on Tuesday, saying its failure to completely end fossil fuel investments undermined the broader goals.

"The World Bank Group’s selective approach to phasing out fossil fuels is about as effective as throwing both water and gasoline at a house fire," said Luisa Galvao, a campaigner with the U.S. arm of Friends of the Earth.

Connors said the bank would assess gas investments on a case-by-case basis and that gas projects would face high thresholds to win funding.

In some cases, it makes sense to proceed with gas projects, Connors said, adding that there was no firm deadline for halting all such investments.

"It's a moving target," she said. "We see it as a journey towards decarbonisation ... but our countries are all on different pathways and there always may be extenuating circumstances in which a particular natural gas project may make sense. But the hurdles are high, and proof needs to be shown."

(Reporting by Andrea Shalal in Washington; additional reporting by Kate Abnett in Brussels; Editing by Lisa Shumaker)

Yellowstone is losing its snow as the climate warms, and that means widespread problems for water and wildlife – a new report details the changes


Bryan Shuman, Professor of Paleoclimatology and Paleoecology, University of Wyoming
Wed, June 23, 2021, 

Snow melts near the Continental Divide in the Bridger Wilderness Area in Wyoming, part of the Greater Yellowstone Area. Bryan Shuman/University of Wyoming, CC BY-ND

When you picture Yellowstone National Park and its neighbor, Grand Teton, the snowcapped peaks and Old Faithful Geyser almost certainly come to mind. Climate change threatens all of these iconic scenes, and its impact reaches far beyond the parks’ borders.

A new assessment of climate change in the two national parks and surrounding forests and ranchland warns of the potential for significant changes as the region continues to heat up.

Map showing the parks and forest land within the Greater Yellowstone Area

Since 1950, average temperatures in the Greater Yellowstone Area have risen 2.3 degrees Fahrenheit (1.3 C), and potentially more importantly, the region has lost a quarter of its annual snowfall. With the region projected to warm 5-6 F by 2061-2080, compared with the average from 1986-2005, and by as much as 10-11 F by the end of the century, the high country around Yellowstone is poised to lose its snow altogether.

The loss of snow there has repercussions for a vast range of ecosystems and wildlife, as well as cities and farms downstream that rely on rivers that start in these mountains.
Broad impact on wildlife and ecosystems

The Greater Yellowstone Area comprises 22 million acres in northwest Wyoming and portions of Montana and Idaho. In addition to geysers and hot springs, it’s home to the southernmost range of grizzly bear populations in North America and some of the longest intact wildlife migrations, including the seasonal traverses of elk, pronghorn, mule deer and bison.

The area also represents the one point where the three major river basins of the western U.S. converge. The rivers of the Snake-Columbia basin, Green-Colorado basin, and Missouri River Basin all begin as snow on the Continental Divide as it weaves across Yellowstone’s peaks and plateaus.

Less water in rivers can harm cutthroat trout, which grizzly bears and other wildlife rely on for food. Karen Bleier/AFP via Getty Images

How climate change alters the Greater Yellowstone Area is, therefore, a question with implications far beyond the impact on Yellowstone’s declining cutthroat trout population and disruptions to the food supplies critical for the region’s recovering grizzly population. By altering the water supply, it also shapes the fate of major Western reservoirs and their dependent cities and farms hundreds of miles downstream.

Rising temperatures also increase the risk of large forest fires like those that scarred Yellowstone in 1988 and broke records across Colorado in 2020. And the effects on the national parks could harm the region’s nearly US$800 billion in annual tourism activity across the three states.

A group of scientists led by Cathy Whitlock from Montana State University, Steve Hostetler of the U.S. Geological Survey and myself at the University of Wyoming partnered with local organizations, including the Greater Yellowstone Coalition, to launch the climate assessment.

We wanted to create a common baseline for discussion among the region’s many voices, from the Indigenous nations who have lived in these landscapes for over 10,000 years to the federal agencies mandated to care for the region’s public lands. What information would ranchers and outfitters, skiers and energy producers need to know to begin planning for the future?

Elk in the Greater Yellowstone Area could be affected by changes in the availability and quality of plants they eat along their migration routes. Changes to the elk population would in turn have an impact on grizzlies, wolves, and other parts of the food chain. Bryan Shuman/University of Wyoming

Shifting from snow to rain

Standing at the University of Wyoming-National Park Service Research Station and looking up at the snow on the Grand Teton, over 13,000 feet above sea level, I cannot help but think that the transition away from snow is the most striking outcome that the assessment anticipates – and the most dire.

Today the average winter snowline – the level where almost all winter precipitation falls as snow – is at an elevation of about 6,000 feet. By the end of the century, warming is forecast to raise it to at least 10,000 feet, the top of Jackson Hole’s famous ski areas.

The climate assessment uses projections of future climates based on a scenario that assumes countries substantially reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. When we looked at scenarios in which global emissions continue at a high rate instead, the differences by the end of century compared with today became stark. Not even the highest peaks would regularly receive snow.

In interviews with people across the region, nearly everyone agreed that the challenge ahead is directly connected to water. As a member of one of the regional tribes noted, “Water is a big concern for everybody.”

As temperature has risen over the past seven decades, snowfall has declined, and peak streamflow shifted earlier in the year across the Greater Yellowstone Area. 2021 Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment, CC BY-NDMore

Precipitation may increase slightly as the region warms, but less of it will fall as snow. More of it will also fall in spring and autumn, while summers will become drier than they have been, our assessment found.

The timing of the spring runoff, when winter snow melts and feeds into streams and rivers, has already shifted ahead by about eight days since 1950. The shift means a longer, drier late summer when drought can turn the landscape brown – or black as the wildfire season becomes longer and hotter.

The outcomes will affect wildlife migrations dependent on the “green wave” of new leaves that rises up the mountain slopes each spring. Low streamflow and warm water in late summer will threaten the survival of coldwater fisheries, like the Yellowstone cutthroat trout, and Yellowstone’s unique species like the western glacier stonefly, which depends on the meltwater from mountain glaciers.

Temperatures are projected to rise in the Greater Yellowstone Area in the coming decades. The chart shows two potential scenarios, based on different projections of what global warming might look like in the future – RCP 8.5, if greenhouse gas emissions continue at a high rate; and RCP 4.5, if countries take substantial steps to slow climate change. The temperatures are compared with the 1900-2005 average. 2021 Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment

Preparing for a warming future

These outcomes will vary somewhat from location to location, but no area will be untouched.

We hope the climate assessment will help communities anticipate the complex impacts ahead and start planning for the future.

[Get our best science, health and technology stories. Sign up for The Conversation’s science newsletter.]

Fortunately, as the report indicates, we have choices. Federal and state policy choices will determine whether the world will see optimistic scenarios or scenarios where adaption becomes more difficult. The Yellowstone region, one of the coldest parts of the U.S., will face changes, but actions now can help avoid the worst. High-elevation mountain towns like Jackson, Wyoming, which today rarely experience 90 F, may face a couple of weeks of such heat by the end of the century – or they may face two months of it, depending in large part on those decisions.

The assessment underscores the need for discussion. What choices do we want to make?

This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It was written by: Bryan Shuman, University of Wyoming.

Read more:

Rocky Mountain forests burning more now than any time in the past 2,000 years

Overcrowded US national parks need a reservation system

Bryan Shuman receives funding from the National Science Foundation. The Greater Yellowstone Climate Assessment was funded by the Greater Yellowstone Coordinating Committee, Montana State University, the University of Wyoming, the U.S. Geological Survey, and the Greater Yellowstone Coalition.

Climate change tipping points are upon us, draft U.N. report warns: 'The worst is yet to come'


David Knowles
·Senior Editor
Wed, June 23, 2021


A draft report by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change warns that unless drastic and immediate action is taken to limit greenhouse gas emissions and keep global temperatures from rising further, life on earth is poised for a catastrophic reckoning.

The 4,000-page draft, a copy of which was obtained by Agence France-Presse, states that mankind may have already missed its opportunity to keep the climate from passing a series of thresholds that will further spur the warming of the planet.

“Life on Earth can recover from a drastic climate shift by evolving into new species and creating new ecosystems,” the report says. “Humans cannot.”

The thresholds, or feedback loops, include the melting of permafrost, which in turn releases methane gas into the atmosphere. This further amplifies the greenhouse gas effect, pushing temperatures even higher. As a result of the melting of the polar ice caps and loss of sea ice, the earth absorbs far more of the sun’s ultraviolet radiation and heat, which further contributes to ice melt.

“I’m not optimistic. It’s not just because of those feedbacks, it’s because we’ve already put so much carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and that carbon dioxide lasts a very long time,” Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, told Yahoo News. “A molecule of carbon dioxide, on average, lasts about 100 years in the atmosphere. So we haven’t yet felt the impacts of the carbon dioxide that we’ve already put in the atmosphere. Even not thinking about feedbacks, we’ve already got a lot more climate change built into the system just because it takes a while for the climate system to adjust itself to this new level of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. All the feedback that [happens is] just making that response even bigger than it would be otherwise.”

A damaged roller coaster in Seaside Heights, N.J., on Nov. 1, 2012, after Hurricane Sandy. (TPX Images of the Day)

Since preindustrial times, the earth has warmed by 1.1 degrees Celsius. In its landmark 2018 report, the IPCC warned of dire consequences should humankind fail to keep average global temperatures from rising higher than 1.5 degrees Celsius. But most climate scientists now believe that meeting that goal will be all but impossible, given the rate at which emissions continue to rise.

The draft report, which is being prepared ahead of the November meeting of world leaders at U.N. climate talks in Glasgow, Scotland, also cautions that 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming will require humans to adapt in ways almost unimaginable just decades ago.

"Even at 1.5 degrees Celsius of warming, conditions will change beyond many organisms’ ability to adapt,” the report states. “Current levels of adaptation will be inadequate to respond to future climate risks.”

The costs of adapting to this new reality will be steep, especially in parts of the world where resources are already scarce.

“Adaptation costs for Africa are projected to increase by tens of billions of dollars per year with warming greater than two degrees,” the report states.

In another tipping point, the Amazon rainforest basin, where flora absorbs carbon dioxide and helps keep temperatures from spiking, could soon be transformed into a savannah, according to the report.

The report also notes that coastlines around the world already experiencing sea-level rise will be forced to deal with uninhabitable conditions as tropical cyclones continue to strengthen. Heat waves like the ones gripping the western United States, and wildfire seasons that continue to set records around the world, will also only worsen over time.

“The worst is yet to come, affecting our children’s and grandchildren’s lives much more than our own,” the report says.

The window of opportunity to stave off dire consequences is quickly shutting, the report warns.

“We need transformational change operating on processes and behaviors at all levels: individual, communities, business, institutions and governments,” it says, adding, “We must redefine our way of life and consumption.”

'Worst is yet to come': Disastrous future ahead for millions worldwide due to climate change, report warns


Doyle Rice, USA TODAY
Wed, June 23, 2021, 


Millions of people worldwide are in for a disastrous future of hunger, drought and disease, according to a draft report from the United Nations' Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change , which was leaked to the media this week.

"Climate change will fundamentally reshape life on Earth in the coming decades, even if humans can tame planet-warming greenhouse gas emissions," according to Agence France-Presse , which obtained the report draft.

The report warns of a series of thresholds beyond which recovery from climate breakdown may become impossible, The Guardian said. The report warns: “Life on Earth can recover from a drastic climate shift by evolving into new species and creating new ecosystems… humans cannot.”

"The worst is yet to come, affecting our children's and grandchildren's lives much more than our own," the report continued.

Species extinction, more widespread disease, unlivable heat, ecosystem collapse, cities menaced by rising seas – these and other devastating climate impacts are accelerating and are bound to become evident in the decades ahead, according to AFP.

Highest in more than 4 million years: Earth's carbon dioxide levels soar to record high despite pandemic

'They're at the brink of existence': California deserts have lost nearly 40% of plants to hotter and drier weather, satellite data shows

The IPCC’s 4,000-page draft report, scheduled for official release next year, offers the most comprehensive rundown to date of the impacts of climate change on our planet and our species, AFP said.

Climate change, also known as global warming, is caused by the burning of fossil fuels such as oil, gas and coal, which release greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane into the Earth's atmosphere. Those greenhouse gases have caused our atmosphere to warm to levels that scientists say cannot be due to natural causes.

So far, since the Industrial Revolution of the 1800s, the Earth has warmed by 1.1 degrees Celsius (which is roughly 2 degrees Fahrenheit), according to NASA.

Coal-fired power plants such as the Homer City Generating Station in Pennsylvania emit carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming.

The report warns of "progressively serious, centuries' long and, in some cases, irreversible consequences." The report also said that the millions of people who live along coastlines almost everywhere around the world could be battered by multiple climate calamities at once: drought, heatwaves, cyclones, wildfires and flooding.

Simon Lewis, a professor of global change science at University College London, told the Guardian that “nothing in the IPCC report should be a surprise, as all the information comes from the scientific literature. But put together, the stark message from the IPCC is that increasingly severe heatwaves, fires, floods and droughts are coming our way with dire impacts for many countries.

"On top of this are some irreversible changes, often called tipping points, such as where high temperatures and droughts mean parts of the Amazon rainforest can’t persist. These tipping points may then link, like toppling dominoes,” Lewis said.

In a statement following the leak of the report, the IPCC said that it does not comment on the contents of draft reports while work is still ongoing. The official report, designed to influence critical policy decisions, is not scheduled for release until February 2022, AFP said.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Climate change impact: UN report warns of 'irreversible consequences'

Ancient Rocks Reveal How Volcanos Unleashed The Mother of All Extinctions


(Westend61/Getty Images)

MIKE MCRAE
23 JUNE 2021

Over a quarter of a billion years ago, at the close of the Permian, life's resilience was put to the ultimate test. Nine out of every ten marine species perished – along with nearly three quarters of species on land – in what's now referred to as The Great Dying.

The smoking gun is an intense period of volcanic activity in what is modern-day Siberia, blasting material into the atmosphere hundreds of thousands of years prior to the ecological catastrophe.

Now chemists have uncovered what looks to be the bullet: traces of a nickel isotope that altered the chemistry of the planet's oceans, triggering a domino-effect that would ultimately suffocate animals far and wide around the globe.

Building a case on the mother of all extinctions is a forensics exercise on an epic scale. There's no shortage of evidence, from the litany of fossils to vast plates of igneous rock deposited in a series of cataclysmic eruptions roughly half a billion years ago.

It tells an all-too familiar story of global climate change driven by volcanic eruptions, sending temperatures soaring and robbing oceans of their oxygen. On land, the story was just as grim. Plants weathered the changes well enough, but over a period of hundreds of thousands of years, terrestrial animals gradually dropped away.

Figuring out the details is where it all gets a little messy. Was it global warming from a surge in greenhouse gases? Ozone-depleting compounds tearing a hole in the atmosphere? Mass poisoning of the oceans?

A significant clue can be found in the geology of Meishan, a prefecture in China's Zhejiang Province. For decades this compressed strip of rock has served as the marker defining the end of the Permian and the start of the Triassic.

Mixed in among the sediments making up this critical layer of history, along with other similar layers around the world, is an unusual concentration of nickel.

"Nickel is an essential trace metal for many organisms, but an increase in nickel abundance would have driven an unusual surge in productivity of methanogens, microorganisms that produce methane gas," says geochemist Laura Wasylenki from Northern Arizona University.

Aerosols spewed out by volcanoes are certainly one source of the metal, but other, more localized environmental factors would need ruling out before any definitive claims could be made.

Wasylenki and her team analyzed samples of black shale taken from Arctic Canada, representing oxygenated and oxygen-depleted deposits laid down during the end-Permian mass extinction.

Concentrations of a specific isotope of nickel along with the total amount of the element were traced over an extensive period during the extinction, and then compared with the predictions of several explanatory models.

While amounts of the isotope barely changed at the horizon of the extinction event, the total concentration of nickel plummeted, pointing to an uptake of the nutrient by an explosion of nickel-hungry microbes.

Their rapid growth under low oxygen conditions – and belching out of copious amounts of methane – would be bad news all round, not only contributing greenhouse gases, but greedily stripping organic carbon from the environment, feeding a food web that would suck all of the available oxygen from the ocean's depths.

"Our data provide a direct link between global dispersion of [nickel]-rich aerosols, ocean chemistry changes, and the mass extinction event," says Wasylenki.

It wasn't a slow death, either. The changes to ocean chemistry would have taken place over the course of hundreds of thousands of years, a timeline reflected in other studies.

Studying nickel isotopes to better understand fluctuations in chemistry in the deep past is a relatively new tool in the geologist's box, yet could potentially be used to solve the mystery of other ancient events.

While there's no such thing as a closed case in science, the story behind one of the most catastrophic events in all of biology is slowly becoming crystal clear.

"Prior to this study, the connection between Siberian Traps flood basalt volcanism, marine anoxia, and mass extinction was rather vague, but now we have evidence of a specific kill mechanism," says Wasylenki.

This research was published in Nature Communications.

Flood-basalts(red areas) and corresponding hotspots (yellow dots). Hotspots are stationary regions of increased igneous activity; the spatial discrepancy of these spots and lava deposits is explained by the slow movement of the tectonic plates. The radiometric ages of some of the igneous provinces correlate with major mass extinction events during Earth's history, as shown by the number of families recognized in the geological record.

 D.BRESSAN