Bargaining over global tax enters key stage

Issued on: 27/06/2021 - 

Global tax reforms would allow countries to tax a share of profits of the 100 most profitable companies in the world JUSTIN TALLIS AFP/File



Paris (AFP)

Nearly 140 countries will haggle over key details of a global corporate tax plan this week, with some concerned about giving up too much and others eager to ensure tech giants pay their fair share.

The Group of Seven (G7) wealthy democracies approved a proposal to impose a minimum corporate tax rate of at least 15 percent earlier this month, hoping to stop a "race to the bottom" as nations compete to offer the lowest rates.

It is one of two pillars of reforms that would also allow countries to tax a share of profits of the 100 most profitable companies in the world -- such as Google, Facebook and Apple -- regardless of where they are based.


The deal now goes to the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), which is overseeing two days of talks starting Wednesday to find a consensus among 139 countries.

The proposal will then be taken up by the G20 club of wealthy and emerging countries at a meeting of finance ministers in Italy on July 9 and 10.

"I don't think we have ever been so close to an agreement," said Pascal Saint-Amans, director of the OECD tax policy centre.

"I think that everybody has realised that a deal is better than no deal," Saint-Amans told France's BFM Business radio earlier this month, adding that failing to agree would lead to unilateral taxes and US reprisals.

US President Joe Biden has galvanised the issue by backing the global minimum corporate tax, and Europeans want a deal, he said.

Negotiations have gained new urgency as governments seek new sources of revenue after spending huge sums on stimulus measures to prevent their economies from collapsing during the coronavirus pandemic.

- Irish concerns -

While the G7 -- the United States, Canada, Japan, France, Britain, Italy and Germany -- approved the plan, it still faces hurdles as the negotiations expand to other nations.

European Union members Ireland and Hungary are not thrilled about it, as their corporate taxes are less than 15 percent.

Ireland has become the EU home to tech giants Facebook, Google and Apple thanks to its 12.5-percent rate.

But another EU country that has benefited from a low rate, Poland, voiced support for the proposal last week.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said China also has concerns about the proposal.

Two sources involved in the negotiations told AFP that China, which has a reduced rate for companies in key sectors, would not want a rate that exceeds 15 percent.

Biden also has some convincing to do at home, as key Republicans in Congress have already criticised the deal as a "speculative agreement" and an "economic blunder".

- Amazon escape? -

The next round of talks will also have to settle on a tax base and the number of companies whose profits could be taxed.

While Britain backed the G7 plan, it wants to ensure that its financial sector is exempt from the reform's "Pillar One" on taxing a share of profits of overseas-headquartered companies.

Others like France are concerned that US e-commerce behemoth Amazon could escape the levies because its profit margin does not exceed a 10-percent threshold.

The world's 100 biggest multinationals would be targeted by Pillar One, but countries in the G24 -- an intergovernmental group that includes countries such as Argentina, Brazil and India -- say more firms should be added to the list.

© 2021 AFP

World's smallest hog released into wild in India by conservationists

Issued on: 27/06/2021 

A dozen of the world's smallest pigs have been released into the wild in northeastern India as part of a conservation programme to boost their population Biju BORO AFP

Manas (India) (AFP)

A dozen of the world's smallest pigs have been released into the wild in northeastern India as part of a conservation programme to boost the population of a species once thought to have become extinct.

The pygmy hog, which has the scientific name porcula salvania, lives in tall, wet grasslands and was once found along plains on the Himalayan foothills in India, Nepal and Bhutan.

Its population declined in the 1960s, leading to fears it had become extinct until it was rediscovered in India's northeastern state of Assam in 1971, conservationists say.

By 1993, it was only found in a few pockets of Assam's Manas National Park, which borders Bhutan. The Pygmy Hog Conservation Programme, involving several organisations including from state and national governments, established a captive breeding scheme with six hogs in 1996 to try and revive their population.

"This time we are releasing 12 pygmy hogs including seven male and five female," the programme's field scientist Dhritiman Das told AFP at the release site in Manas National Park on Saturday.#photo1

Eight of the hogs were released in Manas on Tuesday and four more on Saturday. Some 14 were released last year.

The programme looks after around 70 captive hogs and is breeding more to be released.

The past week's releases take the number of pigs reintroduced into the wild by the programme to 142.

The wild population is estimated to be less than 250, conservationists say.

"In next four years, we target to release 60 hogs... so that they can build their own population in the wild," Das added.

The programme has also sought to rehabilitate the grasslands home to the tiny creatures, which measure about 25 centimetres (9.8 inches) in height and 65 centimetres in length and weigh around 8-9 kilogrammes (17.6-19.8 pounds).

The species' survival has been threatened by the loss and degradation of its habitats due to human activity such as settlement and agriculture, and the improper management of such areas, experts say.

© 2021 AFP

Germany: Cannabis legalization becomes election campaign issue

Millions of people regularly use illegal drugs. After Germany's upcoming parliamentary election, drugs legalization looks set to be a new issue on the political agenda.


In Germany, one in three adults have smoked cannabis at least once

With watershed elections looming in Germany, some politicians are talking about a new approach to drug control.

The opposition Free Democrats (FDP), for whom civil liberties are a major issue, have called for the limited and legal sale to adults of "cannabis for leisure consumption." In view of growing global sales of cannabis for medical purposes and private pleasure, the business-friendly FDP is even looking to turn "Cannabis Made in Germany" into a lucrative export product.

Watch video04:36 The race to legalize marijuana

Things are really beginning to happen in the debate over illegal drugs — and, above all, cannabis. Half a century of restrictive drug policies across Europe has not helped to significantly stifle demand or slash supply. Even the coronavirus pandemic has had no real effect on the flourishing black market.

Despite lockdowns and border checks, "at the beginning of 2020, the European drug market was characterized by the widespread availability of a diverse range of drugs of increasingly high purity or potency," said a report published in mid-June by the European Monitoring Center for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA).

Cannabis: Drug of choice

Sales of illegal drugs in Europe are now reported to be worth some €30 billion ($15.5 billion). And, just like in other countries around the world, cannabis is also by far the most popular prohibited drug in Europe. Despite all the bans and crackdowns, EMCDDA figures suggest that nearly 30% of all adult Europeans will try smoking cannabis as a joint or with a pipe at least once in their lives. In Germany, too, every third adult has smoked cannabis at least once in their lives, indicating there is a high level of acceptance for the drug in many sectors of society.

This explains why a growing number of lawyers and prosecutors, criminologists, police officers, and social workers are questioning the reasoning behind prohibitionist policies. Politicians are also beginning to ask whether the police and state prosecutors are the right instruments for protecting people's health. The discussion has been fueled by one key trend: In more than a quarter of all US states, adults are now permitted to buy quantities of their favorite narcotic — legally.

Four of the six parties currently represented in the Bundestag, the German parliament, are committed to backing an end to the prohibition policy.


Finding the right strategy

Of course, there are differences between the various political parties. But the Green party and the FDP, the Left Party, and the Social Democrats (SPD) all agree that present drug strategies based on prohibition are a failure. They are all calling for new approaches to pave a path between strategies like legalization, decriminalization, and regulation.

Wieland Schinnenburg, the FDP's parliamentary group spokesman on drug and addiction policy, told DW that there are an estimated 4 million regular cannabis users in Germany. And their fates are being left to the ruthless forces of the black market, where there are no quality standards.

What's more, says Schinnenburg, the state is losing out on sizeable revenue. "If the market were to get official approval, the state would of course take in tax income that could, in turn, be spent on prevention and therapy."

So just how much money are we talking about here? Well, in 2018, that was precisely what Justus Haucap, professor of economics at Düsseldorf University, decided to find out.

He calculated the combined sum that could be saved in police and legal services plus income through tax revenue totaled around €2.6 billion.


The Greens are the only party to so far come forward with comprehensive draft legislation designed to tackle the problem. Their "Cannabis Control Bill" is mainly based on the controlled distribution of cannabis to adults at designated sales points. The idea is to dry out the black market, provide better protection for youngsters, remove some of the burdens from the shoulders of police and the legal system, and bring in tax revenue that could be used for prevention and treatment. But, last October, the Bundestag rejected the bill.

Criminalized consumers

Heino Stöver says new initiatives in drug control policies are "long overdue." The Frankfurt-based social scientist is a familiar face for members of the Bundestag's Health Committee, where he regularly provides expert reports and testimony.

Speaking to DW, Stöver pointed to the high number of criminal cases on police records. "We have registered an all-time high with over 358,000 so-called narcotics offenses." Nearly four-fifths of that total, he continued, involve actual consumption. In other words: a user has been caught in possession of just a few grams of marijuana and a heroin addict with his daily shot. What happens is: harmless consumers are criminalized — often with devastating consequences for their workplace, a training position, or in their circle of friends and relatives.

Watch video06:46Growing cannabis under police surveillance

Police and the criminal justice services find themselves buried beneath an avalanche of ultimately petty cases.

Not to forget the perils of the black market and the uncontrolled products that are sold there. The European Drug Report includes plenty of examples for the resultant horrors: Gangsters, for instance, who mixed inferior quality marijuana with lethal synthetic cannabinoids, leaving over 20 people dead in Hungary in the summer of 2020.

Heino Stöver dismisses any prospect of a drug-free, abstinent society as mere fiction: "And the majority of people in society don't share in that vision in the first place," says Stöver, pointing to the pleasure principle that is central to drug consumption. There are, he adds, very few societies in human history that have not actually resorted to drugs.


Daniela Ludwig, the German government's drug commissioner, only recently spoke out against an initiative to legalize cannabis — referring to the primary obligation to protect children.

But Ludwig, a conservative from the Bavarian CSU party, "did concede that deploying the full force of the law against somebody caught for the first time in possession of cannabis is counterproductive." She pointed to Portugal's policy of

"decriminalization, that is moving away from the application of criminal law and towards understanding that what we are seeing are petty offenses. A real alternative if coupled with binding counseling options."

But Germany's conservatives are far from united on such a strategy. In their 140-page manifesto for the upcoming election, there is not a single mention of the word cannabis.

However, when the dust finally settles on the autumn election and negotiations to form a new government coalition get underway, it will simply not be possible to sweep the many pressing questions surrounding drug policies under the carpet.

This article has been translated from German.

Cuba's COVID vaccine rivals BioNTech-Pfizer, Moderna

Cuba's health authorities said this week the domestically produced Abdala vaccine has proven to be 92% effective against the coronavirus in clinical trials. DW takes a closer look.


The Abdala vaccine is named after a poem by independence hero Jose Marti

In a measure of its ambitious efforts to be vaccine self-reliant, Cuba has named one of its homegrown jabs Abdala, after a famous dramatic verse by independence hero and national icon Jose Marti. In the verse, the young hero, Abdala, heads to war to defend his fatherland, full of patriotic fervor no matter how strong and powerful the enemy.

From the perspective of many Cubans, it's the perfect name for the first COVID-19 vaccine to be developed in Latin America. And the perfect imagery for the story of a tiny island of 11 million inhabitants eager to show it can't be broken by a deadly virus and a 60-year economic blockade by the United States, and a country that boasts several brilliant scientists of its own.

Cuba's new scientist star

One of them is Gerardo Enrique Guillen Nieto, director of biomedical research at the Center for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology (CIGB) in Havana where Abdala was developed.

Last Sunday on Father's Day, Cuban television ran a commercial featuring the 58-year-old Guillen Nieto. Accompanied by melodramatic music, it opened with the scientist in his clinic while his son talked off camera about how his father works tirelessly for his family and the people.

Guillen Nieto said he gathered researchers from all fields to develop the vaccines

"We have worked full time since the beginning of the pandemic, every Saturday, every Sunday, from early in the morning until late at night, without even a moment's rest," the highly respected scientist said in the clip. "And we are very euphoric because the results have exceeded all our expectations. We knew the vaccine was very good, but not even I expected such a result."

Charting its own course

According to the state-run biotech corporation, BioCubaFarma, Abdala has proven about 92.28% effective against COVID-19 in clinical trials, which would put it the same league as the most effective vaccines BioNTech-Pfizer and Moderna. Huge applause erupted in the auditorium of the CIGB this week when the impressive results were announced.

Since then, Guillen Nieto has been inundated with interview requests. The whole world wants to know Abdala's formula for success. The Cuban vaccine is neither a vector vaccine nor does it work with mRNA technology. Instead, it's a so-called protein vaccine. That means it carries a portion of the spike protein that the virus uses to bind to human cells. It docks onto the receptors of the virus' own spike protein, thus triggering an immune reaction. The scientists are using yeast as a receptor-binding domain.

The government vaccination program was rolled out in mid-May with Abdala and the second homegrown vaccine, Soberana 2, even before the completion of the third phase of clinical trials. These are the first vaccines on the island since Cuba declined importing any shots from Russia or China. Cuba has also decided against joining the UN-backed COVAX initiative, a global project aimed at getting COVID-19 shots to countries regardless of their wealth.

Watch video01:51 Cuba's cigar-makers optimistic despite COVID

"We know that in the end we always have to rely on ourselves, on our own strengths and abilities," said Guillen Nieto, alluding to the political isolation caused by the US embargo. "The result is a health care system that is not only free of cost but also centrally controlled, and that has perfected the ability to respond quickly to disasters, be it with clinical trials, with vaccination campaigns or even the production of a vaccine."

Vaccinations to curb rising COVID infections

According to Guillen Nieto, 2.2 million Cubans have already received their first vaccination, 1.7 million their second and 900,000 the third dose.

Abdala is administered in three doses, with two weeks between each vaccination. Based on the government's ambitious plans, 70% of country's population should receive their shots by August.

It's a race against time because the number of new infections on the Caribbean island is steadily rising with more than 2,000 cases a day. Nearly 1,200 people have died of COVID-19 in Cuba. Guillen Nieto is counting on the vaccination campaign to give him a decisive advantage over all other countries in the world in the fight against the virus.

Cuba rolled out its vaccination campaign in mid-May

"Here there is an unprecedented level of trust in the Cuban health system," he said. "For example, we never have problems finding volunteers when it comes to clinical trials. In Cuba, people are extremely eager to be vaccinated. No one here would think of not getting inoculated because everyone knows how important vaccinations are."

An independent panel of experts in Havana will now scrutinize the Abdala vaccine, and official emergency approval is expected in the next two weeks. After that, Cuba could also apply to the World Health Organization (WHO) for approval of Abdala for international use. Bolivia, Jamaica, Venezuela, Argentina and Mexico have already signaled interest.

But is Abdala really the miracle vaccine that the numbers promise? Perhaps Jose Moya is the man best placed to assess this. The Peruvian doctor started out as an epidemiologist 30 years ago in his native Ayacucho, and then worked for Doctors Without Borders in Guatemala, Mozambique and Nigeria.

For the past two years, Moya has been the representative in Cuba of PAHO (Pan American Health Organization), a regional organization of the WHO with 27 country offices. And, he trusts the Cuban figures.

"The CIGB Research Institute has 30 years of experience in vaccine research. I trust the results that have been published. These are serious studies, with the participation of researchers and institutions committed to science," Moya said.

Watch video12:01 Facing Latin America's worst outbreak

The best proof is the fact that 80% of all of Cuba's vaccines are produced in the country itself, Moya said. He was not surprised by the high efficacy of Abdala, saying it was simply the logical consequence of a health care system that had been performing steadily well for decades. "Already, the results published by the scientists beforehand showed a good response in terms of antibody production," he said.

Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel, however, does not want to dwell on scientific assessments of the new vaccine. For him, the country's drive to pursue homegrown solutions rather than importing foreign vaccines are a triumph of Cuba's biotech industry.

"This success can only be compared to the greatness of our sacrifices. It is an example of the pride with which a country treats its pharmaceutical industry, which has been living with the US economic embargo since 1962," he said.

This article has been translated from German

My Europe: What we can learn from Yugoslavia's collapse

The war that destroyed Yugoslavia began on June 26, 1991. Today, a number of multiethnic states face the same challenges that led to its disintegration.

Vukovar, November 19, 1991: Survivors leave the ruins of the Croatian city after three months of fighting

Was it worth it? A decade of war? Flight? Displacement? If you could find a representative group among those living in the seven countries that rose out of the rubble of Yugoslavia — among the elders that experienced the fall of the country, or younger ones that know only a post-Yugoslav reality — most would say "no."

But no such group exists. There is no longer a Yugoslav society for it to even represent. If you ask individuals in the different former republics, you get extremely different answers. In fact, the only citizens who seem to have fond memories of the multiethnic state are those in Slovenia.

They say it was OK, actually quite good, adding that it's too bad that some aspects of it disappeared. Still, they contend, it couldn't last forever. That sentiment is widespread but is it true? Were things really OK in Yugoslavia?

"Yugo-nostalgics" are essentially non-existent among Kosovo Albanians, for instance. For them, the last decade of Yugoslavia's existence was too traumatic. Although the war did not rage in Kosovo as it did elsewhere during that time, citizens there were subjected to police terror. On the other hand, in Serbia, North Macedonia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Montenegro and even — albeit in a whisper after a third beer — in Croatia, many people publicly lament the fall of Yugoslavia.

For instance, in large surveys conducted more than 10 years after the war and independence, the majority polled listed Josip Broz, better known to the world as "Tito" — the figurehead of the much maligned former republic — as the greatest Croat of all time.

Attempts to put Franjo Tudjman, the father of Croatian independence, into that spot have been largely dismissed. And Stjepan Mesic, for example, the country's second president after independence, proudly titled his memoirs, How We Destroyed Yugoslavia. The move didn't go down well and the title was changed to How Yugoslavia Was Destroyed in its second printing.

Watch video04:44 Bosnia's children of war

Diversity wasn't the problem

Yugoslavia carried the seeds of its own demise for years. But it wasn't the cultural diversity of its populous that was the problem — other nations, from India to Switzerland or the United States, known as an "immigrant country," have been able to master far greater differences. Rather, the issue was how the country dealt with that diversity.

In its first iteration as the Kingdom of Yugoslavia from 1918-1941, the approach was to ignore national, religious and cultural differences. But the opposite manifested itself: As difference was declared unimportant, the relative majority — made up of Serbs — spread its influence far and wide.

The end of the Kingdom of Yugoslavia: German soldiers march Yugoslav prisoners of war through Belgrade in 1941

Communist caution

When communists took over the country in the wake of Nazi Germany's invasion and a civil war that broke down along ethnic lines, they swore they would not make the same mistake. Old national identities were keenly respected during the Federal People's Republic of Yugoslavia, and new ones — Macedonians, Bosniaks and ultimately even Roma — were added.

As long as national identity operated along the folkloric lines, following the Soviet model, and all political decisions were made by a central communist government, the system worked. But as communism began to lose credibility to parliamentary democracy around the globe — and when the lore of partisan war glory faded — national identities gained political importance.

Yugoslav partisans in Bosnia with their leader Tito (center, in dark uniform with light coat) in 1942

Ethnicity, not democracy

Whether political posts, jobs, financing, freeway construction, factory locations — in socialist Yugoslavia, ethnicity was the "key" that was to be observed. Majority decision-making became impossible because one national identity always trumped another.

Although every decision was aimed at achieving optimal balance, it could never be one that was stable. When that balance began to tip, as it did in Croatia in the early 1970s, all that needed to be done was for Tito to give the word and those disturbing the peace were quickly jailed.

A replacement for the great national umpire Tito would have to have been a person with forebears from all Yugoslav nationalities. But that was an impossibility. In theory, the eight-person collective state presidency designed to take on that role would allow for majority decisions. Still, when one nation was outvoted there were immediate cries that the republic was falling apart. But when the "reformer" Slobodan Milosevic gained power and he and his "Serbian bloc" ignored such considerations, the republic was indeed at its end.

Croatian President Tudjman (left) and his Serbian counterpart Milosevic took part in the Dayton peace conference in 1995

The logic of division

Yugo-nostalgics praise the former republic's multiethnic state as a model for the future. They say the original was destroyed by jealous foreign powers or evil politicians — depending on who you talk to. But a society that distributes its riches and power along ethnic lines should not be surprised when ethnic conflict eventually dominates every aspect of life.

In the end, dividing the crumbling republic was the logical step. In Yugoslavia, as elsewhere in the world, there were plenty of evil politicians willing to lead the experiment to its bloody conclusion.

That isn't to say that Yugoslavia never had a chance. In the late 1960s, when democratic optimism swept the world, young Yugoslavians, too, stood up to fight for liberal values. Most were primarily concerned with civic rather than national equality.

But Tito and the old guard that surrounded him had no desire to introduce more democracy. Instead, it was decided that the best route would be to more finely tune the republic's ethnic balance. In the end, everyone felt exploited by everyone else, and rightly so.

Yugoslavia will never exist again. But other multiethnic countries and quasi-states are facing the same challenges that faced the republic before its collapse — reason enough to avoid any hint of arrogance when looking back.


Watch video 02:38 Sarajevo marks war anniversary

Norbert Mappes-Niediek is the author of several books on the region and has been a Southeastern Europe correspondent for various German media outlets for 30 years.

This article has been translated from the German by Jon Shelton

Afghanistan: Power struggle in the Hindu Kush

NATO forces are withdrawing from Afghanistan. But Kabul's neighbors have conflicting interests. The omens are not good for a country that has often suffered from its strategic location. What lies ahead for Afghanistan?

As the NATO troops withdraw, the problems remain

For over four decades now, Afghanistan has been ravaged by war. In all that time, one thing has been unchanged: Afghanistan remains a "graveyard for empires," a view once again highlighted by the pullout of US forces and their allies. And one factor is a cruel constant in this country's desperately troubled history: its central strategic location.

Afghanistan is a country of many peoples and even more neighbors — both directly and indirectly. And they could not be more different: from Iran in the west, the two hostile nuclear powers Pakistan and India in the east, China in the northeast, the oil- and gas-rich states of central Asia in the north.

For a variety of different reasons, war-ravaged Afghanistan is of crucial interest to all of these players. And for all of them, the strategic options will change when — after a military intervention that lasted 20 years — there are no longer any Western forces stationed in the Hindu Kush.

No wonder, then, that these neighboring countries are beginning to step up their activities. Thomas Ruttig of the Afghan Analysts Network does not expect any significant calming of the situation in the near future.

"The individual countries have seriously conflicting interests and many of them are playing out bilateral or multilateral rivalries or tensions on Afghan territory," Ruttig told DW.

Indian and Pakistan: Dangerous disputes

Regional tensions are particularly intense between India and Pakistan. India is one of the Afghan government's main allies and, not only because of its connection with the Kashmiri terrorist organizations including Lashkar-e Taiba, Delhi views the Taliban as a threat to its own security.

Meanwhile, despite all the denials from Islamabad, Pakistan continues to see the Taliban as "its best card in the Afghanistan game," said Ruttig. He believes that Islamabad sees Afghanistan as its own backyard and therefore tries all it can to have a profound influence on how the country is governed.

"As far as Afghanistan is concerned, it would not be advisable to invest too much faith in Pakistan's goodwill," said Ruttig.

Concern ahead of US troop departure

Pakistan's regional influence could get an additional boost, with the country being talked about as a possible location for a new US military base. "This is being hotly debated in Washington," said Andrew Watkins, an Afghanistan analyst from the International Crisis Group.

"What we're talking about is the deployment of air assets and not sizable ground forces — about maintaining the ability to conduct a drone war or even deploy standard Air Force assets. Because that is highly controversial in domestic politics in Pakistan, it will be something that they do in relative secret and that most of us will only learn about years after the fact," he said.

While the Pakistani government has publicly denied any intention of giving US forces access to its military facilities, the Taliban came out at the end of May with a preventive statement urging Afghanistan's neighbors not to host US bases.


Pakistan sees the Taliban as its 'best card' in Afghanistan, as Prime Minister Imran Khan meets with Taliban leaders

China: Security 'free rider'?

For its part, Beijing views the US withdrawal from Afghanistan with very mixed feelings. Gu Xuewu, director of the Center for Global Studies in Bonn, Germany, said that on the one hand, China welcomes the decision to pull back forces from its immediate neighborhood. At the same time, however, China has profited from US efforts over the last two decades to contain the influence of the militant Islamist Taliban.

"The main fear is Xinjiang. As far as I can see, for Beijing everything else is secondary," said Gu. Xinjiang is a northwestern region of China, inhabited by the Muslim Uyghur people, which borders Afghanistan.

Islamist Uyghur groups, also operating in Afghanistan, are viewed as a serious concern in China — above all since the so-called "Islamic State" (IS) has been active in the Hindu Kush, said Angela Stanzel of the Berlin think tank German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP).

"IS has directly threatened China with retaliation for the persecution of the Muslim minority in China itself," she said. "Which again exacerbates Beijing's anxiety about a power vacuum in Afghanistan that could give IS the territory it needs to spread its presence in China and above all across central Asia."

The Chinese Embassy in Kyrgyzstan was hit by a suicide attack by an Uyghur group in August 2016

In the past, China was often described as a "free rider" in Afghanistan. Beijing, it was suggested, was allowing NATO forces to be responsible for the security of its economic interests. This initially included, for example, plans for investment in the exploitation of the raw materials that bitterly poor Afghanistan has at its disposal in large quantities that, however, simply go unused.

Nevertheless, Stanzel said there is no reason to believe that Beijing will step in and guarantee security in the region after the US withdrawal.
Mixed reaction in Tehran

In Tehran, the response to the American withdrawal from the Hindu Kush has been ambivalent. The undoubted foreign policy priority for Iran is the conflict with the United States, and in western Afghanistan US forces and their bases had been shifted close to the Iranian border.

"Iran wants to see the United States fail in any of its regional endeavors," said Crisis Group expert Watkins. "And Iran wants to see the US withdraw from the region because it also views the US presence in Afghanistan as an encroachment. But what they don't want is to see the potential for total collapse or for a humanitarian disaster."

In recent decades, millions of Afghans have sought refuge in Iran as well as in Pakistan.

Uprooted by war, Afghan refugees have found shelter in a camp in Iran

"Tehran actually appreciated the stabilizing impact of Western forces — even if it is something that the Iranian authorities would never have admitted to," said Ruttig of the Afghan Analysts Network.

This may also be applicable to Moscow. In the Russian imagination, Afghanistan has since the 19th century been seen as a southern strategic flank, as a gateway to the Indian Ocean, as a backdrop for rivalries with the West — or all of this together.

For a long time, following the withdrawal of Russian troops from Afghanistan in 1989, Moscow kept its distance from the region. In the meantime, however, Russia has again established relations with a number of players in Afghanistan, including the Taliban.

Moscow's interests are focused on security across its southern flank, measures to prevent a resurgence of Islamic movements and participation in any attempt to reach a political solution to the conflict.

More than 30 years ago, Soviet forces left Afghanistan after years of bloody combat

Hope for Afghanistan's future?

There will be no resolution of the conflict in Afghanistan unless it has the backing of the nations of the region. But, according to Watkins, each country "could put a finger on the scale and throw the entire situation in Afghanistan out of balance."

But Delhi and Islamabad do have one shared interest: both are looking to secure access to the vast energy resources of Central Asia. Since the 1990s, there have been negotiations concerning a possible pipeline project to bring gas from Turkmenistan via Afghanistan and Pakistan and all the way to India. The acronym for the project is TAPI, after the names of the four nations involved.

A visit by a Taliban delegation to Turkmenistan at the beginning of February was interpreted as a sign that the pipeline project is still viable. The Taliban reiterated their support for the pipeline and promised to guarantee its security.

"For Afghanistan and all the other participants, one can only hope that this project will be realized — in a peaceful environment," said Ruttig. "It is the only realistic large-scale economic project that they have got."

SEE

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for HINDU KUSH 

Migrant workers flee capital as Bangladesh tightens Covid lockdown

Issued on: 27/06/2021 

Tens of thousands of migrant workers fled Bangladesh's capital on the eve of a tightened lockdown Munir Uz zaman AFP

Sreenagar (Bangladesh) (AFP)

Tens of thousands of migrant workers fled Bangladesh's capital Sunday on the eve of a tightened lockdown that will curtail most economic activity and confine people to their homes as coronavirus infections soar.

Restrictions on activities and movement have been in place since mid-April as cases and deaths jumped.

Infections declined in May but started to rise again this month, with just over 6,000 daily cases on Thursday and 108 deaths on Friday, according to the health ministry -- the highest in more than two months.

The resurgence has prompted the government to toughen restrictions in stages from Monday, with economic activity -- including shops, markets, transportation and offices -- to shut down by Thursday.

People will be ordered to stay at homes while only emergency services and export-oriented factories continue operations.

The coming closure has sparked an exodus from Dhaka, the capital.

With public inter-city transportation already suspended since June 22, people have squeezed into rickshaws, hopped onto motorbikes and even hired ambulances to make their way to their villages.#photo1

Ferries have been operating on overdrive, with some running services 24 hours a day and cramming more than 1,000 passengers onto each trip.

"We don't want them to overcrowd the ferry. But they don't listen," said police sub-inspector Mohammad Reza. "There is a mad rush of people."

A senior official at the state-run Bangladesh Inland Water Transport Corporation told AFP that at least 50,000 people had crossed the river by ferries on Sunday alone.

At a river station in the rural town of Sreenagar about 70 kilometres (43 miles) south of Dhaka, thousands queued from early Sunday to cross the Padma, a tributary of the Himalayan river the Ganges.

"We did not have any choice but to leave the city," Fatema Begum, 60, told AFP while waiting for a ferry.#photo2

"During lockdown, there is no work. And if we don't work, how do we pay rent? So we packed up everything and are going back to our village."

Mohammad Masum, 30, a street vendor in Dhaka, said it was better to return home and "spend the time with family" than be confined in the capital.

Bangladesh has reported more than 880,000 infections and just over 14,000 virus deaths, but experts say the actual toll could be much higher due to possible underreporting.

© 2021 AFP

OIL WAR 

More than 100 killed in Yemen as fighting over oil-rich Marib region continues


Issued on: 27/06/2021 - 

A Yemeni government fighter backed by a Saudi-led coalition fires his weapon during clashes with Houthi rebels on the Kassara front line near Marib, Yemen on June 20, 2021. © Nariman El-Mofty, AP

Clashes between rebels and Yemeni government fighters killed at least 111 in Marib in three days, pro-government sources said, following a renewed offensive by Huthi insurgents.

The Iran-allied insurgents escalated their efforts to seize Marib, the government's last stronghold in northern Yemen, in February, and the fighting has killed hundreds on both sides.

The fighting between Thursday and Sunday killed 29 pro-government personnel and at least 82 rebels, three pro-government sources told AFP. Rebel forces have not confirmed the toll.

Yemeni government officials said that since Thursday, the Huthis had mounted intensive attacks from the north, south and west, but were unable to breach government defences which were supported by air cover from a Saudi-led military coalition.

"These areas witnessed fierce fighting amid artillery shelling from both sides and intense coalition air raids," one government military official said.

Control of the oil-rich region of Marib would strengthen the Huthis' bargaining position in peace talks, but the battle has also raised fears of a humanitarian catastrophe, as many Yemenis had fled to the area to escape fighting in other parts of the country.

Millions displaced amid conflict

Yemen's conflict flared in 2014 when the Huthis seized the capital Sanaa, prompting the Saudi-led intervention to prop up the government the following year.

While the UN and Washington are pushing for an end to the war, the Huthis have demanded the re-opening of Sanaa airport, closed under a Saudi blockade since 2016, before any ceasefire or negotiations.

As well as the bloody offensive in Marib, the Huthis have also stepped up drone and missile strikes on Saudi targets, including its oil facilities.

This month the outgoing UN envoy for Yemen Martin Griffiths told the Security ouncil his own efforts over the past three years to end the war had been "in vain".

The fighting has killed tens of thousands and left some 80 percent of Yemenis dependent on aid, in what the UN calls the world's worst humanitarian crisis.

The war has also displaced millions of people and left many on the brink of famine.

(AFP)

UN says 400,000 are approaching starvation in Madagascar amid back-to-back droughts

Issued on: 26/06/2021 

A woman collects water from a puddle in the dried Manambovo river bed in Tsihombe, Madagascar, May 2, 2021. © Viviane Rakotoarivony/UN Handout via REUTERS


The U.N. World Food Program says southern Madagascar is in the throes of back-to-back droughts that are pushing 400,000 people toward starvation, and have already caused deaths from severe hunger.

Lola Castro, WFP’s regional director in southern Africa, told a news conference Friday that she witnessed “a very dramatic and desperate situation” during her recent visit with WFP chief David Beasley to the Indian Ocean island nation of 26 million people.

Hundreds of adults and children were “wasted,” and hundreds of kids were skin and bones and receiving nutritional support, she said.

In 28 years working for WFP on four continents, Castro said she had “never seen anything this bad” except in 1998 in Bahr el-Gazal in what is now South Sudan.

The U.N. and Madagascar’s government are launching an appeal for about $155 million in a few days to provide life-saving food and prevent a major famine, she said. Thousands of people have left their homes in rural areas and moved to more urban environments in search of food, she added.

Beasley tweeted Friday that 400,000 people are “marching towards starvation,” 14,000 are “in famine-like conditions,” and “if we do not act ASAP, the number of people facing starvation will reach 500,000 in a few short months.”

“Families have been living on raw red cactus fruits, wild leaves and locusts for months now,” he said Wednesday.

“This is not because of war or conflict, this is because of climate change,” Beasley stressed. “This is an area of the world that has contributed nothing to climate change, but now, they’re the ones paying the highest price.”

According to WFP, 1.14 million people in southern Madagascar don’t have enough food including 14,000 in “catastrophic” conditions, and this will double to 28,000 by October.

Madagascar is the only country that isn't in conflict but still has people facing “Famine-Humanitarian Catastrophe” in the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification known as the IPC, which is a global partnership of 15 U.N. agencies and international humanitarian organizations that uses five categories to measure food security, Castro said.

(AP)

Opinion: India doesn't respect sexual harassment survivors

The verdict in the Tarun Tejpal case, in which a former top magazine editor was acquitted of rape, highlights the fact that Indian courts almost always protect perpetrators. It's up to survivors to prove their innocence.



Indian women are well-aware of the consequences they face for speaking up

In May, an Indian court in the coastal state of Goa acquitted Tarun Tejpal, the former editor of a leading news magazine, of raping a young female colleague in a high-profile case that made headlines across the country.

Tanika Godbole is a DW correspondent based in Delhi

During the trail, old emails from 2013 resurfaced where he apologized to the survivor for his behavior and described the event as a "lapse of judgement" and an "unfortunate incident."

In his final court statements Tejpal, who has maintained he was falsely accused, described the incident as "drunken banter."

Tejpal was the one accused of the crime back in 2013, but it was up to the survivor to bear the burden of providing the proof. She was the one put on trial and accused of not "behaving like a victim" by Judge Kshama Joshi. The court also said she exhibited "unnatural" behavior by continuing to stay in touch with Tejpal.
Survivor on the defense

None of this is surprising. When it comes to sexual harassment cases in India the survivor is forever on the defense, forced to repeatedly relive the events of the abuse during questioning.

Unlike any other crime, the onus of proof is pushed onto the woman. She is the one who has to prove her truth, instead of the person accused of committing the crime.

Watch video 04:26 Indian girls learning self-defense

Not too long ago, we were celebrating the victory of Priya Ramani in a defamation case — a win for India's #MeToo movement. She was acquitted by a New Delhi court on charges of criminal defamation for accusing former editor-turned-politician MJ Akbar of sexual harassment in 2018, while she was a young professional working under him. While this was a good precedent, we seem to have forgotten that it was once again the woman defending her right to speak up against sexual harassment.
Basic respect for women still lacking

It is shockingly common for survivors to be questioned about their clothes, their behavior, their sexual history and so on, when such cases go to court.

In June 2020, in which a court in India's Karnataka state granted bail to the accused, the judge stated that it was "unbecoming of an Indian woman" to have gone to sleep after the crime. "That is not the way our women react when they are ravished," said Justice Krishna S Dixit, as reported by India Today.

And, in a 2017 case which showed a shocking lack of understanding of the rules of consent, Delhi's high court acquitted a film director accused of rape on grounds that the woman's no was too "feeble" to matter

Watch video 03:21 Promoting gender equality in India

After the 2012 Delhi gang rape that shook the entire country, India made several progressive changes to its sexual harassment and rape laws. The definitions of rape and consent were broadened and elaborated, and punishment for the crime was increased. It's undeniable that some progress has been made.

However, basic respect for consent and the woman's autonomy have yet to find a permanent place in the minds of the judiciary, which still seems to be guided by an orthodox, regressive and patriarchal understanding of sexual crimes.
99% of cases go unreported

Until courts start to see survivors of sexual crimes as the victims, there is little hope. Courts must understand the courage it takes for women to come to them to seek justice.

Indian women are well-aware of the consequences they must face for speaking up. High-profile rulings like the Tejpal verdict leave little room for respecting the survivor's basic dignity and right to privacy. Defense lawyers and courts often add false accusations as an excuse to not believe women, even though studies have repeatedly shown these are extremely rare.

It's no wonder that almost 99% of cases of sexual harassment and rape go unreported in India. If India wants its women to feel safe, it must place the onus of proof squarely where it lies: on the perpetrators.