Here’s the disturbing reason conservatives are hopelessly addicted to their own stupid COVID-19 lies

Amanda Marcotte, Salon
July 16, 2021

Fox News host Tucker Carlson (Screenshot)

On Thursday, Surgeon General Vivek Murthy did something no surgeon general has done before: He issued a warning — not about what people are consuming with their bodies — but with their minds.

"I am urging all Americans to help slow the spread of health misinformation during the COVID-19 pandemic and beyond," Murthy asked in the health advisory titled "Confronting Health Misinformation." At a White House press conference Thursday, Murthy reserved his harshest criticism for tech companies, who he said "allowed people who intentionally spread misinformation — what we call disinformation — to have extraordinary reach" and whose algorithms are "pulling us deeper and deeper into a well of misinformation." White House press secretary Jen Psaki said: "We've increased disinformation research and tracking within the Surgeon General's Office. We are flagging problematic posts for Facebook that spread disinformation."

This advisory may not seem like it, but it's a very big deal.

From the highest levels of the federal government, such a warning is an official recognition of how, now that vaccines are widely available, COVID-19 spreading should be understood more as a social phenomenon than a biological one. Murthy also wisely centered how much this false information is being deliberately spread by bad actors and zeroed in on the fact that the tech companies are letting lies spread on social media because it's profitable to do so.

But that last point really underscores why the spread of disinformation is such a sticky problem, and why fact-checking and better health information is probably not enough to convince people, especially Republicans, to get vaccinated. Misinformation isn't really the cause of people refusing the COVID-19 vaccination. It's just the excuse people are wielding to justify an extremely stupid choice to risk their own health to demonstrate their tribalist loyalties to the Republican Party and their hatred of the Democrats. In this particular chicken-and-egg situation, the rejection of the vaccine comes first, and the lies are spread to rationalize a decision that's already been made.

In much of the media coverage of anti-vaxxers, the tendency is to frame them as passive victims of misinformation, as if they saw some scare story on Facebook about vaccine dangers and decided, based on that, to reject the vaccine. The Washington Post, for instance, published a piece on Thursday about the COVID-19 outbreak in Springfield, Missouri, which is happening because of widespread rejection of vaccines in the area. Folks who spoke to the reporters had a million excuses for why they weren't vaccinated yet, and all were presented in the article at face value. One 30-year-old man claims he's safe because he "works an overnight shift at Walmart and has little interaction with other employees or customers." Another (who died of COVID-19) was "worried about side effects as a result of her complicated medical history." Another who is "pregnant with their second child, declined to get vaccinated because she wasn't sure how the shots would affect the pregnancy." But her husband, who is not pregnant, insisted he also didn't need the vaccine because "it's no worse than the flu," which is something that health experts also recommend vaccinating against annually.

I'm not a mind reader, but let's face it: This is honking nonsense. Folks aren't getting vaccinated because they have real concerns. It's because they live in right-wing America and have been made to feel that getting the vaccine is disloyal to Donald Trump, disloyal to Fox News, and above all else, a great way to stick it to the liberals. That's why political affiliation predicts anti-vaccination sentiment better than pretty much any other factor. What the Washington Post reporters diligently recorded from these Missouri anti-vaxxers was not reasons, but rationalizations. And that, more than any other factor, is why misinformation about vaccines is so wildly popular on social media.

People, especially conservatives, love reading and sharing lies that justify their worldview. And, by and large, they aren't too concerned about the moral implications of lying or spreading lies. On the contrary, the widespread victim mentality on the right allows many of them to feel justified in spreading lies, as it feels like some sort of payback to know-it-all liberals.

Murthy is right that lies tend to be profitable for social media companies and this is why: Lies are in strong demand, especially on the right. Conservatives who share this stuff aren't passive consumers. They tend to reward people who tell them lies, which is why someone like Tucker Carlson has such high ratings and only gets more popular the more full of shit he is.

A recent study out of MIT confirms this frustrating reality about why people spread misinformation. Researchers fanned out on Twitter, looking for people sharing "any one of 11 frequently repeated false news articles." With excruciating politeness, the researchers corrected the false information, with replies like, "I'm uncertain about this article — it might not be true. I found a link on Snopes that says this headline is false," with a link to the true information.

How did people react to being politely corrected?

Not like folks who mean well and are embarrassed at being caught mistakenly spreading a falsehood, that's for sure. Instead, as researcher Mohsen Mosleh noted, "they retweeted news that was significantly lower in quality and higher in partisan slant, and their retweets contained more toxic language." In other words, people know that what they're sharing online is garbage. They just don't care, and, in fact, they will double down as a defensive reaction if they're called out for it.

As the researchers found, this problem was shared across partisan identities, which shouldn't be surprising to anyone who has gently tried to correct a progressive friend who is a fan of some of the more noxious #resistance grifters out there. But there should also be no doubt that the misinformation problem is much worse on the right, as other research has consistently shown. And when it comes to misinformation about vaccine safety, it's almost exclusively a right-wing problem.

So Murthy is right that social media companies need to do more to crack down on misinformation about the COVID-19 vaccine spreading rampantly on their platforms. Putting little disclaimers on posts that send people to the CDC website ain't it. That would work if people were sharing bad information in good faith, and were open to being gently corrected by more scientifically sound information. But the reason that lies perform well on social media is not that people are being duped, but because people — especially conservatives — love lies and gobble them down like candy. The only thing that will work is cutting them off entirely.

Misinformation is not the cause of anti-vaccination sentiment, but that doesn't mean that stopping lies is a waste of time.

Conservatives are using these vaccination lies — like propaganda is generally used — to stiffen their resolve, reaffirm their tribal identity, and develop talking points to bat away concerns from relatives and friends who are trying to get them to protect their health. Understanding how such misinformation functions is crucial to combat its effect. The real issue here is that vaccines are being talked about in ways that are politicized and emotional, instead of as a banal bit of health care. As long as getting the vaccine is associated with liberalism, huge swaths of the country will be dug in against doing it. Crushing misinformation is crucial, but only part of what needs to be a larger effort to de-politicize the COVID-19 pandemic.

One Mutation May Have Set the Coronavirus Up to Become a Global Menace

Posted By Erin Garcia de Jesus, Science News on Fri, Jul 16, 2021

• Courtesy University Hospitals
• The mutation led the virus get a stronger lock on human cells

A single change in a key viral protein may have helped the coronavirus behind COVID-19 make the jump from animals to people, setting the virus on its way to becoming the scourge it is today.

That mutation appears to help the virus’ spike protein strongly latch onto the human version of a host protein called ACE2 that the virus uses to enter and infect cells, researchers report July 6 in Cell. That ability to lock onto the human cells was stronger with the mutated virus than with other coronaviruses lacking the change. What’s more, the mutated virus better replicates in laboratory-grown human lung cells than previous versions of the virus do.

“Without this mutation, I don’t think the pandemic would have happened like it has,” says James Weger-Lucarelli, a virologist at Virginia Tech in Blacksburg. The coronavirus’s global spread might have been less likely, he says.

Where exactly the coronavirus came from is still a mystery that researchers are trying to unravel (SN: 3/18/21). But figuring out how an animal virus gained the ability to infect people could help researchers develop ways to prevent it from happening again, such as with antivirals or vaccines, Weger-Lucarelli says.

The new findings hint that the mutation is important, but “it’s potentially one of multiple” changes that made the jump from animals to people possible, says Andrew Doxey, a computational biologist at the University of Waterloo in Canada who was not involved in the study. “It’s not necessarily the only mutation.”

Virologist Ramón Lorenzo Redondo agrees. The researchers employed an approach that is not typically used for viruses, says Redondo, of Northwestern University Feinberg School of Medicine in Chicago. That means the method may have overlooked other important mutations.

In the study, Weger-Lucarelli and colleagues analyzed more than 182,000 genetic blueprints of the coronavirus, looking for signs of mutations that might have helped the virus adapt to and spread among humans. The team compared changes in the building blocks, or amino acids, of the virus’ spike protein with four coronaviruses from bats or pangolins that don’t infect people. The scientists pinpointed one swap that replaced the amino acid threonine that is found in the animal viruses with the amino acid alanine that is found in the coronavirus that causes COVID-19.

The researchers predict that the mutation, named T372A, removes some sugars that coat the spike protein. Those sugars might be “getting in the way,” Weger-Lucarelli says, so removing them gives the virus better access to ACE2 to break into cells.

Experiments suggest that’s true. Once a virus with an alanine gets into laboratory-grown human lung cells, it replicates more than versions with threonine, the team found. In the future, the researchers plan to explore the role other mutations might have played to help an animal virus adapt to humans.

It’s unclear when the virus acquired the T372A mutation, says Arinjay Banerjee, a virologist with the Vaccine and Infectious Disease Organization at the University of Saskatchewan in Saskatoon, Canada, who was not involved in the study. A bat coronavirus with a threonine at that spot may have infected people first and then rapidly adopted an alanine, helping the virus transmit more efficiently among people. Or it’s possible that the alanine appeared in bats or in another animal before making the jump.

“Those questions, I think, are still outstanding,” Banerjee says.

Originally published by Science News, a nonprofit newsroom. Republished here with permission.

Tags: Covid-19, Coronavirus, Image

Did Climate Change Cause This?

Flood Disaster Could Become a Major Issue in German Election

This week's devastating floods in western Germany could very well bring climate change to the forefront of the country's national election. 

A similar weather disaster in 2002 tipped the ballots.

By Anna Clauß, Lukas Eberle, Christoph Hickmann, Martin Knobbe, Timo Lehmann, Julia Merlot, Gabriel Rinaldi und Jonas Schaible

DER SPEIGAL
16.07.2021

Bild vergrößern
Devastation in Walporzheim: A force so strong it could only be a force of nature.

 Foto: David Klammer / laif / DER SPIEGEL

Perhaps at the end of Germany's current election campaign, the candidates will be asked this: Where were you on Thursday, July 15? What did you do, what didn’t you do, and what did you say? Perhaps this Thursday will go down as the day that changed everything, or at least a lot of things, and when nature rendered any kind of campaign planning worthless. Perhaps this Thursday was the day the real campaigning began. The day after the storm, after the flood.

DER SPIEGEL 29/202

The article you are reading originally appeared in German 

in issue 29/2021 (July 17th, 2021) of DER SPIEGEL.SPIEGEL International

On Thursday, Armin Laschet, the chancellor candidate for the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) visited the city of Hagen and the town of Altona, where he appeared in rubber boots on a flooded street and promised quick help.

Olaf Scholz, the candidate for the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD), was on vacation in the Allgäu region of the Alps. He cut his holiday short to travel to Bad Neuenahr-Ahrweiler in the disaster region, where he called for greater climate protection measures.

Annalena Baerbock, the Green Party candidate was also on vacation, but her party wouldn’t say exactly where. She issued a press release calling for quick, unbureaucratic help, and had a spokesperson announce she was now coming home early from vacation

It will take a few weeks before we know what was right and what was wrong, what had an effect and what didn’t. In any case, the consequences of the mass flooding on Thursday in Germany will reverberate for some time to come.

So, far the campaign running into the September election for Germany's parliament, the Bundestag, which will also determine who becomes Angela Merkel’s successor as chancellor, has been characterized by a disturbing imbalance. The issues at stake could hardly be greater: Most importantly, the climate crisis – and the question of how humanity can keep the planet habitable – demands answers. Instead, the debate has focused on the resumé of the Green Party candidate and passages in a book she wrote that appear to have been copied. And the fact that the CDU dressed up female employees at their party headquarters as policewomen or nurses and printed photos of them on posters. So far, the campaign has been petty and lacked the gravitas of an election of this importance.

Insured losses from flooding across Europe to reach into the billions

16th July 2021 - Author: Luke Gallin

Reinsurance News

The insurance and reinsurance industry is expecting losses in the billions of Euros as a result of catastrophic flooding across parts of Europe, with the event poised to become one of the costliest flood episodes on record.


Flooding in Germany, photo from Roberto Pfeil – AFP

In Germany, hundreds of people are missing and more than 100 lives have been claimed as rivers burst their banks, with reports of severe damage to property.

According to reports, this is the worst flooding Germany has witnessed for decades and the amount of rainfall is being described by some as unprecedented.

As well as Germany, severe convective storms and torrential rainfall left major impacts across many parts of Central and Western Europe, with Belgium, the Netherlands, and Switzerland under threat.

Furthermore, this active weather pattern, which started from July 8th -15th, is ongoing and with more heavy rainfall expected today and with rivers still rising, further damages are expected.

As well as the loss of life in Germany, Belgium has also reported 14 deaths from the flood event, while in Switzerland a number of lakes are close to over-topping and there is a level of concern for major cities in the region.

News reports this morning from South Limburg, a region in the Netherlands, note that the area has now been declared as a disaster zone.

A report on the event by Impact Forecasting, a division of insurance and reinsurance broker Aon, describes thousands of properties as being inundated as “the worst regional flooding in decades” occurred following record levels of rainfall.

Over July 13th – 14th, this rainfall led to the overflow of a number of tributaries flowing into the northern and southern branches of the Rhine River.

In fact, areas of Rhineland-Palatinate and North Rhine-Westphalia experienced a significant 148 litres of rain per square metre within 48 hours, and this is a part of Germany that typically sees about 80 litres in all of July.

“Additional convective storm and flood damage was noted elsewhere in Switzerland, France,
Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Italy, Poland, Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic. The combined
cost of the floods and storms across Eastern and Central Europe was anticipated to exceed EUR1 billion,” says the Impact Forecasting report.

Continuing to note that, “With the event still ongoing across the hardest-hit areas of eastern and central Europe as water levels have yet to fully recede, it remains too early to provide an exact economic loss estimate at this time. However, considering the expansive and extensive level of damage in many locales, the July 12-15 flood event alone is anticipated to result in an economic cost exceeding EUR1.0 billion (USD1.2 billion).”

This ongoing flood episode comes after Aon warned that a prolonged stretch of severe weather that impacted Europe between June 17th and 25th could drive insured losses of more than $3.4 billion.

Furthermore, the German insurers’ association, GDV, had said that storms, floods, heavy rain and hail experienced in Germany so far this year could make it one of the most damaging since 2013, a year which saw losses of between €8 billion to €9 billion.

The GDV reported that June’s severe weather caused an estimated insurance industry loss of €1.7 billion (around $2 billion) in Germany alone, with wider impacts across much of Central and Eastern Europe as well.

Considering this flood event is ongoing, it remains too early to predict economic and insured loss levels, but it looks very likely that the impact to the industry, once all damage is accounted for, will reach into the billions of Euros.

As a result, it’s understood that global insurers and reinsurers are preparing for one of the costliest flooding events on record.

Catastrophe risk modeller RMS has also commented on the flooding event across Europe: “As of today, floods have caused devastating and deadly impacts in villages and small cities situated upon minor rivers, as evidenced by the terrible images coming from Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany.

“On a more worrying note, the final financial and human impact of these floods are yet unknown as floodwaters are expected to rise further over the coming days, potentially near cities with greater populations. Forecasts call for further precipitation to fall and major rivers and lakes are already full; for instance, major lakes in Switzerland have reached or are close to the levels of the devastating 1999 and 2005 floods. In the Netherlands, forecasts expect flows on the River Meuse to exceed that of the historic floods of 1993 and 1995.

“As devastating as the effects already have been, it is important to note that in the wake of past floods, mitigation measures have been implemented across Europe and their performance will have significant influence on how much damage the current floods will cause. The flooding recorded to date would have covered a much more widespread area and caused far more damage than we’ve already seen, if it were not for these measures already in place.”

Germany floods “very likely” linked to climate change: Munich Re’s Rauch

16th July 2021 - Author: Matt Sheehan

Reinsurance News

Ernst Rauch, Chief Climate and Geo Scientist at Munich Re, has said that events such as the recent catastrophic flooding in Germany are “very likely related to climate change,” and are set to grow in both frequency and intensity.

Source: EPA

This week’s flooding has impacted many parts of Central and Western Europe, including Belgium, the Netherlands, and Switzerland, although Germany remains the worst affected.

The event is poised to become one of the costliest flood episodes on record, with re/insurance industry losses expected to reach into the billions of Euros.

In Germany, hundreds of people are missing and more than 100 lives have been claimed as rivers burst their banks, with reports of severe damage to property.

And it comes on top of a prolonged stretch of severe weather through the latter half of June, as storms racked up an insured bill that could reach $4.5 billion, according to Aon.

Weather conditions in June included thunderstorms, hail and even a tornado that hit the Czech Republic, with Germany, France, Belgium, the Netherlands and Switzerland again among those that were heavily impacted.

“We have observed a significant increase in damages and damage frequency over the past decades in the case of thunderstorms accompanied by local heavy rain, hail or tornadoes,” said Rauch, commenting on the recent flooding.

“There are clear indications that part of the growing damage cannot be explained solely by socio-economic factors, but is due to climate change,” he explained.

“The cause of the recent storms is a low pressure system that hardly moves forward and constantly brings new moisture. Such persistent weather patterns are becoming more frequent and are very likely related to climate change and in particular the rapid warming of the Arctic. We have to assume that these damages will increase in frequency and intensity.”

To combat the effects of climate change on natural catastrophes, and to reduce the exposure of governments and of the re/insurance industry, Rauch stressed that the issues of prevention must become much more prominent.

“In the long run, the expected increased damages are much more expensive than if we start now with prevention, which in the end will dampen the increase in damages,” he concluded.

Oregon Wildfire Forms 'Fire Clouds' That Pose Danger Below

Smoke and heat from a massive wildfire in southeastern Oregon are creating giant fire clouds over the blaze dangerous columns of smoke and ash that can reach up to 6 miles (10 kilometers) in the sky and are visible from more than 100 miles (160 kilometers) away.

ASSOCIATED PRESS
LAST UPDATED:JULY 17, 2021,

PORTLAND, Ore.: Smoke and heat from a massive wildfire in southeastern Oregon are creating giant fire clouds over the blaze dangerous columns of smoke and ash that can reach up to 6 miles (10 kilometers) in the sky and are visible from more than 100 miles (160 kilometers) away.

Authorities have put these clouds at the top of the list of the extreme fire behavior they are seeing on the Bootleg Fire, the largest wildfire burning in the U.S. The inferno grew Friday to about 75 square miles (194 square kilometers) larger than the size of New York City and was raging through a part of the U.S. West that is enduring a historic drought.

The fire was so dangerous late Thursday and into Friday that authorities pulled out crews. Meteorologists this week also spotted a bigger, more extreme form of fire clouds ones that can create their own weather, including fire tornadoes."

Extreme fire behavior, including the formation of more fire clouds, was expected to persist Friday and worsen into the weekend.

WHAT ARE FIRE CLOUDS?

Pyrocumulus clouds literally translated as fire clouds" look like giant, dirty-colored thunderheads that sit atop a massive column of smoke coming up from a wildfire. Often the top of the smoke column flattens out to take the shape of an anvil.

In Oregon, fire authorities say the clouds are forming between 3 p.m. and 5 p.m. each day as the sun penetrates the smoke layer and heats the ground below, creating an updraft of hot air. On this fire, crews are seeing the biggest and most dangerous clouds over a section of wilderness that’s made up mostly of dead trees, which burn instantly and with a lot of heat.

For four days in a row, the Bootleg Fire has generated multiple fire clouds that rise nearly 6 miles (10 kilometers) into the atmosphere and are easily visible from 100 to 120 air miles away (160 to 193 kilometers), authorities said Friday.

The conditions that create the clouds were expected to worsen over the weekend.

WHAT’S THE SCIENCE BEHIND THESE CLOUDS?

When air over the fire becomes super-heated, it rises in a large column. As the air with more moisture rises, it rushes up the smoke column into the atmosphere, and the moisture condenses into droplets. That’s what creates the fire clouds that look much like the thunderheads seen before a big thunderstorm.

These clouds, however, hold more than just water. Ash and particles from the fire also get swept into them, giving them a dark gray, ominous look.

IS THERE SOMETHING EVEN MORE DANGEROUS THAN A FIRE CLOUD?

Yes. When a pyrocumulus cloud forms over a fire, meteorologists begin to watch carefully for its big brother, the pyrocumulonimbus cloud.

NASA has called the latter the fire-breathing dragon of clouds because they are so hot and big that they create their own weather.

In a worst-case scenario, fire crews on the ground could see one of the monster clouds spawn a fire tornado," generate its own dry lightning and create dangerous hot winds below. They can also send particulate matter from the smoke column up to 10 miles (16 kilometers) above Earth’s surface.

So far, most of the clouds on the Bootleg Fire have been the less-intense fire clouds, but the National Weather Service on Wednesday spotted a pyrocumulonimbus cloud forming on what it called terrifying satellite imagery.

Please send positive thoughts and well wishes to the firefighters. … Its a tough time for them right now, the weather service said in a tweet.

HOW DANGEROUS ARE THESE CLOUDS?

Both types of fire clouds pose serious risks for firefighters.

Multiple pyrocumulus clouds have been spotted for four consecutive days, and one of them on the southern flank of the fire partially collapsed Thursday, causing dangerous winds and embers to fall on crews.

That prompted the emergency evacuation of all firefighters and dirt-moving equipment from that part of the fire line. Authorities say there have been no reported injuries.

Were expecting those exact same conditions to develop today and even worsen into the weekend, fire spokeswoman Holly Krake said Friday.

WHERE ELSE HAVE THESE CLOUDS FORMED?

These types of fire-induced clouds are becoming more common as climate change lengthens and intensifies the wildfire season across the U.S. West and in other places, including Australia.

A wildfire in British Columbia last month that leveled an entire town also generated a pyrocumulonimbus cloud.

Blazes in California in 2020 and in the years before have created multiple pyrocumulus clouds, with the Creek Fire in the Fresno area generating a mighty pyrocumulonimbus cloud last fall.

Australia’s bush fire siege in January 2020 also produced pyrocumulonimbus clouds that threatened to produce a fire tornado.

____

Buying new fighter jets would waste billions of dollars — and increase the likelihood of another climate disaster


CONTRIBUTORS
OPINION
By Bianca Mugyenyi

TORONTO STAR

Contributor
Fri., July 16, 2021

The town of Lytton, B.C. broke Canada’s all-time temperature record three days in a row; the next day it was wiped from the map by a forest fire. The message from Mother Nature was unmistakable: “Act immediately to mitigate climate change.”

To heed nature’s warning, I propose the “Lytton test.”

Whatever we’re planning to do collectively, we must ask: Will this help avoid another Lytton? Will it provide protection during another Lytton-like event? Does it consume resources that would be better spent mitigating the climate crisis?

If we utilize this test on the spectacularly expensive purchase of 88 new fighter jets, the Liberal’s plan fails on all three fronts.

Fighter jets can’t protect us from another Lytton-like catastrophe. They can’t extinguish fires, carry personnel to disaster zones or offer effective search and rescue. They are offensive weapons designed to enhance the Canadian Air Force’s ability to participate in future U.S. and NATO-led wars.


Rather than protect Canadians from the devastation experienced by the people of Lytton, purchasing cutting-edge fighter jets increases the likelihood of another climate disaster.

To fly at high speeds and altitudes, fighter jets consume incredible amounts of specialized fuel. The heavy carbon-emitting fuels’ high-altitude release point also has a greater warming effect. Most fuel is consumed in training, but during the 2011 bombing of Libya, the Air Force’s jets consumed 8.5 million litres of fuel.


The planned purchase would be the second largest procurement in Canadian history, diverting resources from efforts to mitigate the prospect of future Lyttons. The government says it plans to spend $19 billion on new jets. But that’s just the sticker price. Depending on whether they select Lockheed Martin’s F-35 stealth fighter, Saab’s Gripen or Boeing’s Super Hornet, the true cost could be four times greater. According to a recent report released by the No Fighter Jets Coalition, the life cycle cost is estimated at $77 billion. Those resources could turbocharge a just transition away from fossil fuels.

Moving forward with this purchase is a decision we will soon regret. Fortunately, there’s growing opposition.

A public letter released this week by the Canadian Foreign Policy Institute and the Canadian Voice of Women for Peace opposes the purchase. “As wildfires blaze in Western Canada amidst record breaking heat waves, the Liberal government is planning to spend tens of billions of dollars on unnecessary, dangerous, climate-destroying fighter jets,” begins a letter addressed to Trudeau.

Initiating signatories include Canadian musicians Neil Young, Sarah Harmer and Tegan and Sara, as well as authors Yann Martel, Gabor Maté and Michael Ondaatje. The No New Fighter Jets for Canada statement is also signed by environmentalists David Suzuki and Naomi Klein, two sitting MPs, four former MPs, a senator and former diplomat Stephen Lewis. Prominent international figures like rock legend Roger Waters, actress Daryl Hannah and academic Noam Chomsky have also endorsed the call.

What happened in Lytton must prompt a profound rethink in government policy. Buying 88 offensive, unnecessary and climate-destroying fighter jets certainly doesn’t meet the Lytton test.

Bianca Mugyenyi is director of the Canadian Foreign Policy Institute.

Mike Pence and Benjamin Netanyahu pushed Donald Trump to bomb Iran after losing the election: rpt

Former Joint Chiefs chairman Mark Milley feared Trump would start a war with Iran to stay in power

By JON SKOLNIK

SALON
PUBLISHED JULY 16, 2021 

Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu (Photo illustration by Salon/Getty Images)

Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley was reportedly worried that Donald Trump might declare war on Iran as part of a last-ditch attempt to overturn his election loss, according to a New Yorker report on Thursday.

Miley was "engaged in an alarmed effort to ensure that Trump did not embark on a military conflict with Iran as part of his quixotic campaign to overturn the results of the 2020 election and remain in power," journalist Susan B. Glasser wrote. "Trump had a circle of Iran hawks around him and was close with the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu," she continued, "who was also urging the Administration to act against Iran after it was clear that Trump had lost the election."

The report stems from a forthcoming book by Glasser and her husband, New York Times reporter Peter Baker. It echoes bombshell allegations in another forthcoming book by two Washington Post reporters.

According to Glasser, the former president had floated the idea of engaging militarily with Iran on a number of occasions during his final months in the presidency. His proposals, the book's authors wrote, reflected Trump's seeming willingness "to do anything to stay in power."
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During one meeting in which the president was not present, Milley pressed former Vice President Mike Pence on "why they were so intent on attacking [Iran]."

Pence reportedly answered: "Because they are evil."

In another episode, after weeks of the former president "pushing for a missile strike in response to various provocations against U.S. interests in the region" following his election loss, Milley told Trump point-blank: "If you do this, you're gonna have a f---ing war."

By early January, it appeared, Trump had been successfully subdued when former National Security Adviser Robert O'Brien and former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo both told the former president in a White House meeting that they were against military action. Walking Trump through the potential pros and cons of a military engagement, Pompeo and O'Brien told the former president that "too late to hit them."

Last month, the New York Times revealed that in early 2020 Netanyahu had given the former president a "hit list" of Iranian targets for him to consider. One of these targets, a suspected nuclear production plant, was in fact the very factory that the U.S. attacked with a drone strike in June.

U.S. tensions with Iran – already simmering under former President Obama – were significantly exacerbated during the Trump administration. On top of withdrawing from the Iranian nuclear deal back in 2018, Trump applied severe sanctions on the country, which have proven to be crippling to Iran's economy. In January of 2020, Trump also ordered the assassination of Iran's top general, Qassem Soleimani – a move that nearly engaged the U.S. in a full-fledged war.


JON SKOLNIK
Jon Skolnik is a staff writer at Salon. His work has appeared in Current Affairs, The Baffler, AlterNet, and The New York Daily News.

Netanyahu urged Trump to attack Iran after he lost the presidency — report

General Mark Milley said to have battled against former US president’s push for a missile strike, facing down his ‘circle of Iran hawks,’ including VP Pence and the then-Israeli PM

By TOI STAFF

16 July 2021

US president Donald Trump (L) welcomes visiting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to the White House in Washington, March 25, 2019. (AP Photo/Manuel Balce Ceneta, File)


Former prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged Donald Trump to launch a military strike against Iran after it was clear that the former US president had lost the 2020 election, a report said Thursday.

General Mark Milley, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, battled to prevent Trump from ordering a strike against Iran, while the president was circled by hawks, including Netanyahu, pressuring him to execute such a strike, according to a report Thursday by the New Yorker.

“If you do this, you’re gonna have a fucking war,” Milley reportedly warned Trump at one point

Other foreign policy advisers, including then-vice president Mike Pence, also reportedly pushed for military action against Iran.

When Milley asked why they were so intent on attacking the Iranians, at a meeting where Trump was not present, Pence replied: “Because they are evil.”

Milley believed that Trump did not want a war, but said the outgoing president kept pushing for a missile strike in response to Iranian provocations against US interests in the region. The chairman ultimately succeeded in preventing such a strike in the tail-end of Trump’s term.

Related: Joint Chiefs head said Trump was preaching Hitler’s ‘gospel’ before Capitol riot

“In the months after the election, with Trump seemingly willing to do anything to stay in power, the subject of Iran was repeatedly raised in White House meetings with the President, and Milley repeatedly argued against a strike,” the New Yorker piece reported. Milley “was worried that Trump might set in motion a full-scale conflict that was not justified. Trump had a circle of Iran hawks around him,” it said, and Netanyahu “was also urging the Administration to act against Iran after it was clear that Trump had lost the election. ‘If you do this, you’re gonna have a fucking war,’ Milley would say.”
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On January 3, 2021, the defeated president convened his advisers in the Oval Office to discuss fresh reports from the International Atomic Energy Agency on Iran’s nuclear activities. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and National Security Adviser Robert O’Brien told Trump at that meeting that “it was not possible to do anything militarily at that point,” the New Yorker said. “Their attitude was that it was ‘too late to hit them.’ After Milley walked through the potential costs and consequences, Trump agreed. And that was that: after months of anxiety and uncertainty, the Iran fight was over.”

Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley testifies to Senate Armed Services Committee about the budget, March 4, 2020, on Capitol Hill in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Israel, under Netanyahu, warned repeatedly that it would act independently against Iran if necessary to prevent it from obtaining nuclear weapons.

“We will not allow Iran to get nuclear weapons. There can be no going back to the previous nuclear agreement. We must stick to an uncompromising policy of ensuring that Iran will not develop nuclear weapons,” Netanyahu said last November, referring to the 2015 nuclear deal with world powers from which Trump withdrew in 2018.

“The IDF will forcefully attack anyone who takes part, from near or far, in activities against the State of Israel or Israeli targets. I am saying this plainly and am describing the situation as it is — the response and all the plans have been prepared and practiced,” Israel Defense Forces chief of staff Aviv Kohavi said in December of the same year.

Netanyahu’s successor, Naftali Bennett, has taken an approach of increased dialogue with the current US administration of Joe Biden on the matter, although he too has reserved Israel’s right to take independent action.

Israel is convinced that Iran is working to develop a nuclear weapons arsenal, and is believed behind a series of strikes and sabotage efforts — some of which it has acknowledged — aimed at setting back the regime’s rogue nuclear program.

UN Human Rights Chief Urges For Release of Cuban Protestors

By Giulia Campos on July 17 2021 

The protests in the island nation have sparked an outpouring of support in Florida, which is home to the nation's largest community of Cuban exiles. Currently, over 100 protestors in Cuba remain detained or missing.

The United Nations Human Rights Chief is calling on Cuba to release all detained protestors and journalists as concerns grow over the widespread arrests and continued unrest in the country.

In a statement released Friday, U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet urged the Cuban government to attend to the demonstrators’ grievances, such as lifting the economic measures that have been restricting people’s access to basic goods, including food, medicine and COVID-19 vaccines.

“I am very concerned at the alleged use of excessive force against demonstrators in Cuba and the arrest of a large number of people, including several journalists,” Bachelet said. “It is particularly worrying that these include individuals allegedly held incommunicado and people whose whereabouts are unknown.”

A 36-year-old protestor died Monday during a clash between demonstrators and police, leading Bachelet to also call for an investigation into the death.

“I deeply regret the death of one protester in the context of protests in Havana,” she said. “I urge the Government to address the protesters’ grievances through dialogue, and to respect and fully protect the rights of all individuals to peaceful assembly and to freedom of opinion and expression.”

The Guardian reports that at least 140 Cubans have either been detained or disappeared in the unrest. The Cuban government also initially blamed social media and the U.S. government for the protests.

Yet on Thursday, Cuban President Miguel Díaz-Canel acknowledged for the first time that demonstrations may have been attributed to shortcomings in his government’s handling of shortages and of neglecting certain sectors.

Díaz-Canel became leader of Cuba’s Communist party early this year when long-time chief Raúl Castro announced he was stepping down.

For the past six decades, Cuba has seen virtually no protests. This unprecedented change of events has been marked by people who are now more willing to stand up against the government and lead the country in a wave of protests demanding basic human rights.

“Instead of repressing the population, the Cuban authorities have an obligation to protect their right to demonstrate peacefully. President Miguel Díaz-Canel’s inflammatory rhetoric of ‘war’ and confrontation creates an atmosphere of violence against those who demand accountability and the free enjoyment of their human rights,” Guevara-Rosas said.

 SHORT ANSWER

Cuba protests: The economic woes driving discontent

Soaring global food prices and the island’s devalued currency — coupled with longtime shortages of basic goods and the decades-long US embargo — helped spark the recent demonstrations.

As tourism dried up, the Cuban economy shrank 11 percent in 2020, according to Economy Minister Alejandro Gil, its deepest slump since the collapse of the Soviet Union [File: Natalia Favre/Bloomberg]

By Kaelyn Forde

16 Jul 2021

Cubans have taken to the streets in cities across the country over the last week, in a wave of rare public protests to express their frustration with rising prices, falling wages, the United States embargo and the failings of the island’s long-standing communist government to address its economic challenges.

Cuba’s coronavirus pandemic-ravaged economy shrank by 11 percent in 2020, the island’s economy minister said, the sharpest contraction since the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early 1990s.

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Soaring global food prices this year and the island’s devalued currency — coupled with shortages of basic goods that predate the pandemic — have fuelled discontent. Both pro- and anti-government demonstrators have taken to the streets since Sunday.

Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel has blamed the protests on US sanctions, accusing Washington of  “economic asphyxiation”. But he also is acknowledging — notably for the first time — that the Cuban government’s policies have also played a role.

So what are the economic forces behind Cuba’s latest protests? Here’s what you need to know.

Anti-government protesters march in Havana, Cuba on Sunday, when 

hundreds of demonstrators took to the streets in several Cuban cities to protest 

against ongoing food  shortages and high prices of foodstuffs

 [File: Eliana Aponte/AP Photo]

Start from the beginning. What kind of economy does Cuba have?

Cuba has what’s known as a command economy, where the government — not market forces of supply and demand — largely determine the production, availability and value of good

Command economies are central features of communist societies, and Cuba has been ruled by its communist party since forces led by Fidel Castro overthrew dictator Fulgencio Batista during the Cuban Revolution in 1959.

What does a command economy look like?

In command economies (also called planned economies), the government controls many of the means of production, while private ownership of industries, property and other resources is significantly limited.

Before the Cuban Revolution, a small elite owned much of the island’s land, industries and wealth. The revolution was designed to make Cuba a more equal society, and in many ways, it succeeded in that goal.

So if it tackled inequality, why is the economy such a mess?

Part of the problem is that government control of the majority of industries can lead to inefficiency, bureaucracy and mismanagement. That, in turn, can translate into shortages of goods, higher prices and frustration for citizens.

But the US embargo against Cuba has certainly done the island’s economy no favours.

Tell me about the US embargo.

Since 1960, the US — Cuba’s neighbour 145km (90 miles) to the north and once major trading partner — has maintained a trade embargo against the island in an effort to force its communist leaders from power

The embargo, a form of severe economic sanctions, hasn’t achieved its goal, but it has made life for ordinary Cubans harder. Medicine, food and all sorts of other goods are in chronically short supply

The embargo has also provided the island’s government with ammunition for its claims that its economic woes are the fault of the US.

Is the government blaming the embargo for its current economic problems?

Partly. In a speech Wednesday, Diaz-Canel slammed the embargo, which Cubans refer to as a “blockade”, as “cruel” and “genocidal”. But he also acknowledged for the first time that the Cuban government’s actions have played a role in people’s discontent.

“We have to gain experience from the disturbances,” Diaz-Canel said. “We also have to carry out a critical analysis of our problems in order to act and overcome, and avoid their repetition.”

In a tweet Thursday, Diaz-Canel said the embargo has made overcoming the island’s problems harder, tweeting that “the blockade surpasses any desire, it delays us, it does not allow us to advance at the speed we need”.

Has the Cuban government tried to fix the problems its policies have created?

On paper. Back in 2011, then-President Raul Castro announced reforms aimed at bringing more market-oriented policies into Cuba’s state-run economy, including allowing people to set up small businesses and eliminating some of the government’s notorious bureaucracy.

But 10 years later, the country’s leadership has been slow to enact many of those incremental economic reforms, leading to frustration — especially given the urgent conditions Cubans are facing right now.

What are some of those conditions?

The COVID-19 crisis has gutted tourism, cutting off a major source of income for Cubans who work in the industry and a major source of US dollars for the Cuban government. That’s especially bad news right now when surging commodity prices mean the government needs to spend more to import food.

Remittances, a lifeline for struggling Cuban families estimated at $2bn to $3bn per year, plunged after former US President Donald Trump tightened restrictions on Cuban Americans sending money back to the island. The pandemic has only served to further stifle the flow of remittances.

And a shortage of foreign currency and the US embargo have also hit Cuban sugar production hard, with the state’s sugar monopoly reporting that this year’s harvest stood at just 68 percent of the country’s planned 1.2 million tonnes, the lowest level since 1908, Reuters news agency reported.

What role does the island’s weakened currency play in the protests?

A big one. At the beginning of this year, the Cuban government formally ended its dual currency system, devaluing its peso for the first time since the 1959 revolution.

The Cuban peso, known as the CUP, was created as the island’s currency by the first president of the country’s post-revolution Central Bank, Ernesto “Che” Guevara. The CUP has always been used for everyday domestic transactions, and many Cubans are paid their wages in CUPs.

But thanks to the US embargo and some of the island’s state-run economic policies, the value of Cuba’s currency evolved to become a tricky issue. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union — Cuba’s major ally — the island allowed people to use the US dollar alongside the CUP starting in 1993.

Customers wait in line to enter a grocery store in Havana, Cuba near portraits

 of the late revolutionary Ernesto ‘Che’ Guevara (right)

 and the late Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez (left) 

[File: Natalia Favre/Bloomberg]

So do Cubans still use the peso and the dollar?

Yes, sometimes. Faced with a cash crunch, the Cuban government reallowed “dollar stores” last year that let people buy goods like food, toiletries and electronics with bank cards loaded with US dollars or other foreign currency.

That, in turn, let the government snap up those dollars to help deal with its liquidity crisis.

But the Cuban government phased out a third currency — the Cuban convertible peso, known as the CUC — earlier this year, leading to problems.

What’s the deal with CUCs?

The Cuban government created the CUC in 2004 for conducting state business and buying goods from abroad after it banned US dollars. It pegged the CUC 1:1 to the greenback and stipulated it couldn’t be taken out of the country.

Until this year, those working in the tourism sector, for example, were still paid in CUCs, leading to disparities with Cubans paid in CUPs. That’s partly why Cuba’s government scrapped the CUC.

Cubans who worked in the tourism sector have been particularly hard-hit 

by the pandemic and the move to a single currency,

 as they had been paid in the convertible pesos the government

 chose to phase out [File: Natalia Favre/Bloomberg]

So what happened to all of the CUCs?

Cubans had through June to trade in their CUCs for CUPs. But the devaluation of the currency means they lost a significant amount of money in doing so, something that hit private-sector workers who have been paid in CUCs for years — workers like those in the tourism sector — particularly hard.

It has already been a tough year for those workers, as the coronavirus pandemic significantly curbed tourism and as former US President Donald Trump tightened the US embargo against the island.

The US trade embargo has made life more difficult for the Cuban people 

[File: Natalia Favre/Bloomberg]

What does the rest of the world say about the embargo?

Resoundingly: end it. For years, the United Nations General Assembly has taken a vote, and the results are overwhelming.

The UN’s resolution calling for an end to the embargo was adopted for the 29th time on June 23, with 184 countries in favour of ending it, three abstaining and just two voting to continue it: the US and Israel.

The vote is symbolic, however, since only the US Congress can actually end the economic sanctions against Cuba. So far, the administration of US President Joe Biden — and the US’s narrowly Democratically-controlled Congress — have not made a move to do so.

A woman shouts pro-government slogans as anti-government protesters march in Havana, 

Cuba on July 11, 2021 [File: Ismael Francisco/AP Photo]

What have the protests achieved so far?

The Cuban government announced it would ease customs restrictions on food, medicine and hygiene products brought into the country by travellers, but it’s unclear how much of a difference that will make since tourism remains down as the pandemic continues.

More broadly, the protests have served to draw attention to Cubans’ plight and spotlighted long-standing issues that need to be addressed with new urgency.

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA