Monday, July 19, 2021

Ben & Jerry’s to stop sales in West Bank, east Jerusalem

By WILSON RING and JOSEF FEDERMAN

FILE — In this March 23, 2010 file photo ice cream moves along the production line at Ben & Jerry's Homemade Ice Cream, in Waterbury, Vt. Ben & Jerry's ice cream said Monday, July 19, 2021, it was going to stop selling its ice cream in the occupied Palestinian territories. (AP Photo/Toby Talbot, File)

MONTPELIER, Vt. (AP) — Ben & Jerry’s said Monday it was going to stop selling its ice cream in the Israeli-occupied West Bank and contested east Jerusalem, saying the sales in the territories sought by the Palestinians are “inconsistent with our values.”

The announcement was one of the strongest and highest-profile rebukes by a well-known company of Israel’s policy of settling its citizens on war-won lands. The settlements are widely seen by the international community as illegal and obstacles to peace.

The move by the Vermont-based ice cream company drew swift reproach from Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, a former leader of the West Bank settlement movement who called it “an immoral decision and I believe that it will turn out to be a business mistake, too.”

The company informed its longstanding licensee — responsible for manufacturing and distributing the ice cream in Israel — that it will not renew the license agreement when it expires at the end of next year, according to a statement posted on the Vermont-based company’s website.

The Ben & Jerry’s statement cited “the concerns shared with us by our fans and trusted partners.”

The company did not explicitly identify those concerns, but last month, a group called Vermonters for Justice in Palestine called on Ben & Jerry’s to “end complicity in Israel’s occupation and abuses of Palestinian human rights.”

“How much longer will Ben & Jerry’s permit its Israeli-manufactured ice cream to be sold in Jewish-only settlements while Palestinian land is being confiscated, Palestinian homes are being destroyed, and Palestinian families in neighborhoods like Sheik Jarrah are facing eviction to make way for Jewish settlers?” the organization’s Ian Stokes said in a June 10 news release.

In a Monday statement, the organization said Ben & Jerry’s actions did not go far enough.

“By maintaining a presence in Israel, Ben & Jerry’s continues to be complicit in the killing, imprisonment and dispossession of Palestinian people and the flaunting of international law,” said the Vermont group’s Kathy Shapiro.

The Israeli foreign ministry called Ben & Jerry’s decision “a surrender to ongoing and aggressive pressure from extreme anti-Israel groups” and the company was cooperating with “economic terrorism.”

“The decision is immoral and discriminatory, as it singles out Israel, harms both Israelis and Palestinians and encourages extremist groups who use bullying tactics,” the ministry said in a statement. It also called on Ben & Jerry’s to withdraw its decision.

While Ben & Jerry’s products will not be sold in the settlements, the company said it will stay in Israel through a different arrangement. But doing so will be difficult. Major Israeli supermarket chains, the primary distribution channel for the ice cream maker, all operate in the settlements.

Founded in Vermont in 1978, but currently owned by consumer goods conglomerate Unilever, Ben & Jerry’s has not shied away from social causes. While many businesses tread lightly in politics for fear of alienating customers, the ice cream maker has taken the opposite approach, often espousing progressive causes.

Ben & Jerry’s took a stand against what it called the Trump administration’s regressive policies by rebranding one of its flavors Pecan Resist in 2018, ahead of midterm elections.

The company said Pecan Resist celebrated activists who were resisting oppression, harmful environmental practices and injustice. As part of the campaign, Ben & Jerry’s said it was giving $25,000 each to four activist entities.

Aida Touma-Sliman, an Israeli lawmaker with the Joint List of Arab parties, wrote on Twitter that Ben and Jerry’s decision Monday was “appropriate and moral.” She added that the “occupied territories are not part of Israel” and that the move is an important step to help pressure the Israeli government to end the occupation.

The West Bank and east Jerusalem were captured by Israel in the 1967 Mideast war. Some 700,000 Israeli settlers now live in the two territories — roughly 500,000 in the occupied West Bank and 200,000 in east Jerusalem.

Israel treats the two areas separately, considering east Jerusalem as part of its capital. Meanwhile, Israel considers the West Bank as disputed territory whose fate should be resolved in negotiations. However the international community considers both areas to be occupied territory. The Palestinians seek the West Bank as part of a future independent state, with east Jerusalem as their capital.

Israel in recent years has become a partisan issue in Washington, with many Democrats — particularly of the party’s progressive wing — growing increasingly critical over a number of Israeli policies, including settlement construction, and former Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s close ties with former President Trump. Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders has been an outspoken critic of Israel.

The BDS movement — shorthand for a grassroots, Palestinian-led movement that advocates boycotts, divestment and sanctions against Israeli institutions and businesses — applauded Ben & Jerry’s decision as “a decisive step towards ending the company’s complicity in Israel’s occupation and violations of Palestinian rights,” but called upon the company to do more.

“We hope that Ben & Jerry’s has understood that, in harmony with its social justice commitments, there can be no business as usual with apartheid Israel,” a statement read.

The Israeli government says the BDS movement masks a deeper aim of delegitimizing or even destroying the entire country.

The Yesha Council, an umbrella group representing the roughly 500,000 Israelis living in West Bank settlements, said “there’s no need to buy products from companies that boycott hundreds of thousands of Israeli citizens because of the place they choose to live.” It said Ben & Jerry’s decision “brought a bad spirit to such a sweet industry” and called on Israelis to buy locally produced ice cream this summer.

Ben & Jerry’s move on Monday may not be the final chapter in the saga. Airbnb announced in 2018 that it would stop advertising properties in Israeli settlements. Several months later, after coming under harsh criticism from Israel and a federal lawsuit by Israeli Americans who owned property in the settlements, the company reversed its decision.

___

Federman reported from Jerusalem. Associated Press reporters Lisa Rathke in Marshfield, Vermont, and Ilan Ben Zion in Jerusalem contributed to this report.
Anarchism and Sexuality
https://www.academia.edu/2312724/Anarchism_and_Sexuality


Sexualities, 2010

Jamie Heckert

https://www.academia.edu/5014568/Fucking_with_each_other_Bachelor_of_Arts_Honours_thesis
Fucking with each other: Bachelor of Arts Honours thesis

Nollie Nahrung


'Fucking with each other' explores identity, subjectivity, power, politics and pleasure through the lived experience of a heterosexual, polyamorous, child-free, white woman in contemporary Australia.

It examines the tensions and pleasures of benefiting from heterosexual privilege while simultaneously being marginalised by mononormativity and pronatalism, revealing a liminal subject position within heteronormative discourses.

In examining this position, the concept of queer, or non-normative, heterosexuality, is engaged. As this indicates, the research is informed by queer theory, and additionally draws from feminist and anarchist perspectives, evidencing a polyamorous relationship with theory.

Further, the project employs a polyamorous research approach, using writing as a method of inquiry, facilitated through poststructuralist autoethnography, and deconstructive textual practices.

This work traverses disciplinary boundaries, drawing from cultural studies, writing, and graphic design to present a lively and experimental text. Including three autoethnographic chapters, with a critical essay accompanying each, this thesis is presented as an open text that invites conversation, or dialogue, with the reader.


Unstraightening: Ethical adventures with queer heterosexuality in an open text

Nollie  Nahrung

Dancing Ourselves to Death: The Subject of Emma Goldman's Nietzschean Anarchism
Chris  Rossdale
Yearbook of the Maimonides Centre for Advanced Studies , 2018
Libera  Pisano
Female surfers overcome sexism’s toll to earn Olympic berth

By SALLY HO

1 of 4

Surfer Johanne Defay, of France, leaves the water after a workout at Surf Ranch during practice rounds for the upcoming Olympics Tuesday, June 15, 2021, in Lemoore, Calif. Defay is headed to the Olympics for surfing's debut at the Games, buoyed by an upset win against reigning world champion Carissa Moore, 28, at the high-intensity Surf Ranch competition last month. Though there's much excitement and renewed enthusiasm for the women's game, the objectification, pay disparities and opportunity gap have taken its toll. Industry leaders say they're committed to righting the wrongs that have long held female surfers back in the male-dominated sport. The mental, financial and logistical roadblocks for women in surfing date back centuries. (AP Photo/Gary Kazanjian)


LEMOORE, CALIF. (AP) — Johanne Defay of France was devastated when the mega sponsor Roxy dropped her right before she became a pro surfer in 2014, shattering her confidence and threatening her career altogether.

“They were just like ’Oh, you don’t look this way, you know, for, like, pictures,” Defay said. “And I just felt like I was never doing enough or I wasn’t fitting in, in the way that they wanted for their brand.”

Now, Defay is headed to the Tokyo Olympics for surfing’s debut at the Summer Games, buoyed by an upset win against reigning world champion Carissa Moore at the high-intensity Surf Ranch competition last month.

Though there’s much excitement and renewed enthusiasm for the women’s game, years of objectification, pay disparities and an opportunity gap have taken their toll. Industry leaders from the professional World Surf League and the developmental USA Surfing say they’re committed to righting the wrongs that have long held female surfers back in the male-dominated sport.

The mental, financial and logistical roadblocks for women in surfing date back centuries.

Hawaiians who invented the sport treated it as an egalitarian national pastime that all genders, ages and social classes enjoyed, according to Isaiah Helekunihi Walker, a Hawaii surfing historian. But Christian missionaries who arrived on the island tried to ban surfing in large part because of nudity — surfing naked was common at the sports’ inception. Though locals largely defied the colonizers, female surfers saw their ranks shrink disproportionately.

“When it comes to controlling nudity, it’s about controlling female bodies,” said Walker, also a BYU-Hawaii history professor.

Even for Moore, the child prodigy who could beat the boys before growing up to be — at 18 years old — the youngest World Surf League champion in history, she’s said she’s also struggled with her body image. Moore is 28 now and has spoken openly about starving herself as a teenager, only to binge eat later, and once even trying to force herself to throw up.

“Everyone had this idea of what a surfer girl should look like. And there were a lot of ‘hot lists’ or the ‘cutest surfer girl list,’” Moore said. “I never made them, but then you see who actually made them and you feel like: ‘Oh, I guess, like, that’s what I should look like.’”

Modern day professional surfing in a previous iteration had a decentralized approach that left brand sponsors in charge of many of the competition logistics, which would vary widely from one event to another, said Greg Cruse, USA Surfing CEO. And though it wasn’t an official rule or standard, there was clearly a preference for the men’s game.

Surfing schedules are determined in the morning based on what the ocean waves are like, and it was no secret that the boys’ and men’s competitions would be given the best surf conditions, usually in the morning. Female surfers took the scraps, if they were invited at all.

“There’d be the event directors and they would kind of schedule things the way they wanted to schedule and there would be bias from the outdated patriarchy. It’s changed immensely,” Cruse said. “It took a while for the women to complain about it.”

A turning point came in 2013, when new ownership took over the professional league and the rebranded WSL began to prioritize standardizing the competitions and rebuilding the women’s events, said Jessi Miley-Dyer, a retired pro surfer who now runs the WSL’s competition as senior vice president.

In 2019, the WSL as the leaders of the $10 billion surfing industry also began offering equal prize money for all its events, making it one of the few professional sports leagues to achieve pay equity.

“It was an important statement to make around the value of our athletes. More than anything, it speaks to the emphasis on women’s surfing. We believe men and women are valued the same,” Miley-Dyer said. “It’s the right thing to do.”

The announcement was emotional for many, including Miley-Dyer. Back in 2006 when she won a pro event, she earned just $10,000 — a third of what the top male surfer took home.

“I cried because it means so much,” Miley-Dyer said. “I had also retired, so it wasn’t something for me, but it felt something to me and so many people like me.”

Next year will be the first time the WSL will include its women surfers at the famous Pipe Masters competition, allowing them the chance to ride the Banzai Pipeline in Oahu, Hawaii, considered by many the best waves in the world.

The WSL has also committed to hosting the same number of events and in the same locations for both the men and women, though the competition at the highest level today still has twice as many male competitor spots — 36 — compared to the women’s game.

In terms of skill and experience, the damage caused by decades of sexism has not yet been fully reversed.

It used to be that girls could begin competitive surfing training at about 11 years old while boys began as early as 4, Cruse said, adding that USA Surfing has closed this experience gap.

And surfboard makers, like many male leaders in the sport, used to believe that girls and women weren’t strong enough to paddle or ride powerfully enough to pull off airs, or aerial maneuvers, so they were given bigger surfboards that are physically easier to ride, but limited their ability to progress into more explosive moves.

So while airs have for years become the gold standard in the men’s competition, it is rarely done by the top female surfers today. Moore, the U.S. surfer to beat at the Olympics, is among the first women to land an air during competition, a milestone she achieved just recently but has no doubt electrified the women’s game and its future.

“They started demanding getting the same type of equipment that allows you to generate more speed and turn sharper and harder,” Cruse said. “Right now, there’s a group of girls coming up. The girls under 16 are better at airs than any of the women in the WSL. They already have the air game and it’s next level and there’s going to be a changing of the guard.”

For Defay, she persevered during her first year without corporate backing. She remembers feeling humiliated hearing others take for granted their private car services arranged by their sponsors after Defay arrived on a two-hour bus ride in order to save money.

She’s thankful fellow pro surfer Jeremy Flores helped sponsor her “insane” rookie season, as a nine-month season can cost as much as $80,000 in travel costs alone.

Now, they’re equals, teammates in Japan on the French Olympic surfing team.

The 27-year-old Defay’s journey to the pros has made her hungrier than ever to prove her talents and worth at the world’s most elite sporting event. And she’ll do it with the body she has learned to appreciate, regardless of how any sponsor may have judged her before.

Though Roxy didn’t respond to requests for comment on Defay’s past sponsorship deal, the surfer declares this:

“I like my shoulders now and my butt,” Defay said with a smirk. “It’s just what it is and what makes me surf this way, so I try to celebrate it.”

____

Follow Sally Ho on Twitter at http://twitter.com/_sallyho

____

More AP Olympics: https://apnews.com/hub/2020-tokyo-olympics
Naomi Osaka on Sports Illustrated Swimsuit cover

Activist Leyna Bloom is the first transgender cover model in Sports Illustrated Swimsuit issue history. File Photo by David Silpa/UPI | License Photo


July 19 (UPI) -- Sports Illustrated revealed tennis star Naomi Osaka as one of three cover models for its annual Sports Illustrated Swimsuit issue Monday. Osaka is the first Black athlete to land on the cover of the edition.

Rapper Megan Thee Stallion and model Leyna Bloom also will appear on separate covers of the magazine, which goes on sale Thursday.

"I'm so proud to be the first Japanese and Haitian woman to grace one of the covers," Osaka said in a video posted by Sports Illustrated. "I feel like that multicultural background is present in all of the things that I do."



Megan Thee Stallion is the first rapper to make the cover of the Sports Illustrated Swimsuit issue. Bloom is the first transgender cover model for the issue. The theme of the issue is: "Opening Eyes, Speaking Truths and Changing Minds."

"There's no question that Naomi is one of the best athletes in the world, and a cover spot felt obvious," Sports Illustrated Swimsuit editor-in-chief MJ Day said in a news release.

"She's spent her formative years racking up titles and is headed to the Olympics. But we celebrate Naomi for her passion, strength and power geared towards consistently breaking barriers when it comes to equality, social justice, and mental health."

Osaka, 23, dropped out of the French Open in May due to mental health concerns. She hasn't played since, but plans to return to the court and compete for Japan at the postponed 2020 Summer Games in Tokyo.

The four-time Grand Slam champion also was named one of the Sports Illustrated Sportspersons of the Year in December for her activism.

"What drew us to Naomi was her passion, strength and power geared toward consistently breaking barriers when it comes to equality, social justice and mental health," Day said.

"She is wholeheartedly dedicated to achieving the impossible and has succeeded time and again. We are so honored to have one of the fiercest female trailblazers in history as one of our 2021 covers."

Former cover models Olivia Culpo, Camille Kostek and Danielle Herrington also are among the 25 women featured in the issue.

 

Leyna Bloom is Sports Illustrated swimsuit issue’s first trans cover star

Model, who is black and Filipino, is also the first ever trans woman of color to be featured in the magazine

Leyna Bloom in 2019.
Leyna Bloom in 2019. Photograph: Julien de Rosa/EPA

Sports Illustrated’s swimsuit issue has unveiled its first ever transgender cover star, Leyna Bloom.

The model follows in the footsteps of model Valentina Sampaio, who was the first trans model to appear in the pages of the magazine last July. Bloom, who is black and Filipino, is also the first ever trans woman of color to be featured in the magazine.

Writing on Instagram, Bloom said the appearance “heals a lot of pain”. She wrote: “We deserve this moment; we have waited millions of years to show up as survivors and be seen as full humans filled with wonder.”

Bloom, who was part of New York’s ballroom scene, wrote: “This historical moment is important to #girlslikeus because it allows us to live and be seen.”

She added: “Many girls like us don’t have the chance to live our dreams, or to live long at all. I hope my cover empowers those, who are struggling to be seen, feel valued.”

Mere Abrams, co-founder of Urbody, the non-binary underwear company, said that they hope it will open doors for members of the trans community.

“I hope this sort of moment prompts other mainstream fashion brands to start paying attention to their responsibility in trans liberation and gender freedom,” Abrams said. “My long-term goal is for gender inclusivity to exist top to bottom and left to right in organisations, but I think that at first, we’ll see many first steps and one-off attempts that feel more surface level.”

Abrams said that the cover is much more than just a visual statement.

“[The] cover represents an important statement of trans inclusion at a moment when legislation and political movements are seeking to exclude transgender girls and women from cultural spaces that celebrate womanhood,” they said.

Bloom joins rapper Megan Thee Stallion and tennis player Naomi Osaka, who feature on three different covers of the Swimsuit Issue, themed “Opening eyes, speaking truths and changing minds”.


China shifts focus to Fort Detrick in rebuff to WHO proposal


China said Monday it disagrees with a World Health Organization proposal from WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus for a new audit of Chinese laboratories. File Photo by Fabrice Coffrini/EPA-EFE


July 19 (UPI) -- China rejected a proposal from the World Health Organization for a new audit of Chinese laboratories previously linked to the earliest outbreaks of the novel coronavirus.

Beijing also claimed the United States poses greater dangers.

Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian said Monday at a regular press briefing that WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus' proposal made last week is "different from the position of many countries, including China."

In February, a team of WHO experts visited the Wuhan Institute of Virology, where a team of Chinese scientists were studying bat coronaviruses. The WHO team said after the trip that the source of the coronavirus "remains unidentified."

Zhao said Monday that any new WHO-led audits of Chinese labs should be decided "by member states."

"The WHO should fully communicate and negotiate with member states, accept their opinions, while at the same time making the process of drafting work plans open and transparent," Zhao said.

The spokesman also claimed that 54 member countries have "opposed the politicization of the COVID-19 origin issue."

Zhao, who promoted an unfounded theory last year that the U.S. military brought COVID-19 to China, tweeted after the briefing Monday that the WHO also should inspect Fort Detrick in Frederick, Md.

Last week, the Chinese spokesman had recommended investigations into the role of cold chains and the global frozen food trade, according to the Global Times.

Chinese state media reported Sunday an online petition is circulating in China, "demanding" an investigation into a lab at Fort Detrick. The petition asking for a probe of the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute of Infectious Diseases has collected half a million signatures, the Global Times said.

"This [U.S.] lab has a notorious record on lab security. There have been scandals of anthrax bacterium from the lab being stolen, causing poisoning to many and even death," the Chinese petition claimed.

China's first COVID-19 cases were first reported in December 2019.
Egypt unveils military vessel, Greek funerary site in sunken city


Issued on: 19/07/2021 -
A diver exploring the hull of a military vessel discovered in the sunken city of Thonis-Heracleion on Egypt's Mediterranean coast - Egyptian Ministry of Antiquities/AFP


Cairo (AFP)

Archaeologists have found rare remains of a military vessel and a Greek funerary complex in an ancient sunken city that once served as Egypt's main Mediterranean port, officials said Monday.

The find was made during underwater excavations at Thonis-Heracleion, a one-time bustling metropolis that sat on the edge of the Nile river where it meets with the Mediterranean sea.

Thonis-Heracleion was for centuries considered Egypt's largest port in the area until Alexander the Great founded the coastal city of Alexandria in 331 BC.

The city, submerged following a series of earthquakes and tidal waves, was discovered in 2001.

"An Egyptian-French mission ... found the debris of a military vessel from the Ptolemaic era and the remains of a Greek funerary complex dating to the fourth century BC," the antiquities ministry said.#photo1

Flat-bottomed with large oars, mast, and sails, the 25-metre-long (82-foot-long) vessel was often used for navigation within the Nile Delta, according to preliminary studies.

Archaeologists say the ship which was supposed to dock near Amun Temple in the area sank following the famed ancient temple's collapse in an earthquake in the second century BC.

"Finds of fast ships from this age are extremely rare," according to Franck Goddio of the European Institute for Underwater Archaeology (IEASM) which led the mission.

Underwater archaeologists also found a funerary complex showing the presence of Greek merchants in the area during the late period of ancient Egypt.

The antiquities ministry said Greeks had dominated the region at the time and built funerary temples in the vicinity of Amun Temple.

Remnants of these temples were found "in excellent condition" underwater, it added.

The latest findings testify to "the richness of temples in the city which now lies under Mediterranean sea water", the ministry said.

© 2021 AFP

Climate change threatens three key stony corals, Atlantic reef ecosystems



Climate change could shift distribution of three stony corals key to Atlantic reef building ecosystems, according to new research. File Photo by Norm Diver/Shutterstock

July 19 (UPI) -- Scientists predicted in a report Monday that climate change could shift distribution of three stony corals key to Atlantic reef building ecosystem.

Oceanography researchers from the University of San Paulo in Sao Paulo, Brazil said in the report, published Monday in the journal Frontiers in Marine Science, the change in distribution will lead to habitat loss of stony corals and have a negative spillover effect on marine life.

They based their research on three climate scenarios for the three types of stony corals of the tropical Atlantic -- Mussimlia hispida, Montastraea cavernosa and Siderastrea complex -- including an optimistic, pessimistic and moderate scenario.

All three species suffered habitat loss under the pessimistic scenario, and one species, M. hispida, lost habitats in all of the scenarios.

Furthermore, even in the optimistic scenario, all three reef builders in the western Atlantic could experience changes in distributions, according to the researchers.

The stony corals deposit calcium carbonate to help build reefs and are vital for the health and function of reefs, but several areas along the Brazilians coast and Caribbean are expected to lose habitat suitability.

"Coral reefs provide essential ecosystem services such as food provision, coastal protection and nutrient cycling, that benefit millions of people -- including those who live far from any coral reef," study lead author Silas Principe in a press release.

"If species that are important in structuring the coral reefs are lost, the provision of those services is consequently also threatened," said Principe, a doctoral candidate at the University of Sao Paulo

The situation is especially critical for the Brazilian coast since it has fewer habitat-building coral species than the Caribbean.

"Certain areas, such as the Abrolhos region in the coast of Brazil, will completely lose at least one species in any of the future scenarios," Principe said. "Major areas in the Caribbean will also lose species in the future, although in the coast of Africa some species may expand their current range."

The study's researchers highlight the need for urgent conservation and government actions.

"Although our results predict major negative impacts on Atlantic shallow reefs, we also identified several areas where none or less changes are predicted. Managers and policy makers can use this to support the planning process of conservation areas," Principe said.

"Researchers and conservationists can use these results to focus research efforts on the so-called 'refuge areas' that may constitute safe areas for coral species in the future," Principe said.

Coral reefs also face other environmental threats.

A U.N. environmental group warned in December the world's coral reefs could be lost by the end of century due to bleaching caused by carbon emissions.
Cause of erroneous presidential polling data unclear, survey group says


An American Association for Public Opinion Research review released Monday found that pollsters overstated Biden's lead over former President Donald Trump by 3.9% nationwide and 4.3% on the state level. Photo by Jim Lo Scalzo/UPI | License Photo


July 19 (UPI) -- A national survey of over 2,000 polls nationwide has found the 2020 presidential polls to be the least accurate in 40 years while the state polls were the worst in at least two decades.

An American Association for Public Opinion Research review released Monday found that pollsters overstated Biden's lead over former President Donald Trump by 3.9% nationwide and 4.3% on the state level.

Polling numbers for Biden also were off by about 1%. The organization was unable to readily explain the disparity that occurred across a variety of polls.

"Identifying conclusively why polls overstated the Democratic-Republican margin relative to the certified vote appears to be impossible with the available data," the report states, according to the Washington Post.

In all, the association election task force reviewed 2,858 polls to reach its determination.

"We could rule some things out, but it's hard to prove beyond a certainty what happened," said Vanderbilt University professor Josh Clinton, who chaired the association's 2020 election task force.

"Based on what we know about polling, what we know about politics, we have some good prime suspects as to what may be going on."

The organization said the most likely answer is a segment of the Republican voting base is less likely to engage in polling.

"It seems plausible to the task force that, perhaps, the Republicans who are participating in our polls are different from those who are supporting Republican candidates who aren't participating in our polls," Clinton said. "But how do you prove that?"

The polls saw the worst performances since 1980.

In a visit to Philadelphia last week, Biden called allegations of election fraud a "big lie" and struck out against states that have passed sweeping election laws.

Polls overstated Democratic support ‘across the board’ in 2020 elections, study shows


Finding will alarm Democrats aiming to hold on to their narrow control of the US House and Senate in 2022

Political polls regarding US elections in 2020 overstated Democratic support “across the board”, US political scientists found, while understating support for Republicans and Donald Trump.

‘It didn’t matter what type of poll you were doing, whether you’re interviewing by phone or internet or whatever.’ Photograph: Erik S Lesser/EPA

Mon 19 Jul 2021 


The finding, which will alarm Democrats aiming to hold on to their narrow control of the US House and Senate in 2022, is contained in a new study by the American Association for Public Opinion Research.

Josh Clinton, a Vanderbilt University professor and AAPOR taskforce member, told the Washington Post: “There was a systematic error that was found in terms of the overstatement for Democratic support across the board.

“It didn’t matter what type of poll you were doing, whether you’re interviewing by phone or internet or whatever. And it didn’t matter what type of race, whether Trump was on the ballot or was not on the ballot.”

Polls were better at predicting support for Joe Biden against Trump in the presidential election than for Democrats in state elections, the study said.

In 2020, polling pointed to Democratic gains in the House, only for Republicans to eat into the majority which made Nancy Pelosi speaker in 2018.

Parties which hold the White House often lose seats in midterm elections. Republicans in Washington are duly bullish about their chances of retaking the House next year, boosted by GOP-run state governments implementing laws meant to restrict voting among communities likely to vote Democratic and to make it easier to overturn results.

Speaking at a conservative conference earlier this year, the House minority leader, Kevin McCarthy, said: “We’re going to get the majority back … I would bet my house.”

The AAPOR study found that polls were more accurate in predicting a popular-vote win for Biden, a contest he eventually won by more than 7m ballots.

The electoral college result was 306-232, the same margin by which Donald Trump beat Hillary Clinton in 2016, when the Republican lost the popular vote by “only” 2.8m.

On Monday, the AAPOR website was down for maintenance. As quoted by the Post, its study said: “That the polls overstated Biden’s support more in whiter, more rural, and less densely populated states is suggestive (but not conclusive) that the polling error resulted from too few Trump supporters responding to polls.

“A larger polling error was found in states with more Trump supporters.”

Josh Clinton, the Vanderbilt professor, said: “It’s possible that if President Trump is no longer on the ticket or if it’s a midterm election where we know that the electorate differs in the presidential election, that the issue will kind of self-resolve itself.

“But if the polls do well in 2022, then we don’t know if the issue is solved or whether it’s just a phenomenon that’s unique to presidential elections, with particular candidates who are making appeals about ‘Don’t trust the news, don’t trust the polls’ that kind of results in taking polls becoming a political act.”