Hundreds of thousands of children orphaned by COVID-19 globally, study finds

An estimated 1.5 million children globally have seen a parent or caregiver die from COVID-19. File photo by Eco Clement/UPI | License Photo

July 20 (UPI) -- More than 1.5 million children worldwide saw a parent, custodial grandparent or other relative who cared for them die from COVID-19, according to a study published Tuesday by the Lancet.

Of these children, more than 1 million children had one or both parents die during the first 14 months of the pandemic, and another 500,000 experienced the death of a grandparent caregiver living in their own home, the data showed.

"By April 30, 2021, these 1.5 million children had become the tragic overlooked consequence of the 3 million COVID-19 deaths worldwide, and this number will only increase as the pandemic progresses," study co-author Susan Hillis said in a press release.

"Our findings highlight the urgent need to prioritize these children and invest in evidence-based programs and services to protect and support them right now and to continue to support them for many years into the future," said Hillis, an epidemiologist with the CDC in Atlanta.

Before the start of the pandemic in March 2020, there were an estimated 140 million orphaned children worldwide, World Without Orphans estimates.

These children are at increased risk for mental health problems, family poverty and physical, emotional, and sexual violence, and they are also more likely to die by suicide or develop a chronic disease, including heart disease and diabetes, according to the organization.

For this study, the researchers developed mathematical models using the best available data to estimate the number of children impacted by the death of a parent or guardian during the pandemic.

They based their COVID-19 orphanhood estimates on mortality data for 21 countries that collectively account for 77% of global COVID-19 deaths, they said.

The analysis included both reported COVID-19 deaths between March 1, 2020 and April 30, 2021 and the number of excess deaths during the same period.

COVID-19 death rates were linked with fertility data for males and females from the 21 countries to estimate the number of children who had lost a parent to the virus, and the death of both parents was accounted for so that children were not counted twice.

The analysis also included deaths of grandparents or other older adults age 60 to 84 who were living in the same household as the children to account for custodial grandparents who have primary responsibility for their grandchildren's care.

At least 1.134 million children experienced the death of their mother, father or custodial grandparents due to COVID-19, the data showed.

Of these, an estimated 1.042 million lost their mother or father or both.

More than 1.5 million children are estimated to have experienced the death of at least one parent or a custodial or other co-residing grandparent or other older relative, they said.

The United States was amongst the countries with the most children -- nearly 114,000 -- who saw the death of a primary caregiver and a per capita rate of one child per 1,000 people in the general population.

These are likely underestimates, the researchers said, because figures for a number of countries included in the study were based on COVID-19 mortality only and excess death data were unavailable.

For almost every country, deaths were greater in men than women, particularly in middle and older ages, and up to five times more children lost their fathers than lost their mothers.

"Our study establishes minimum estimates -- lower bounds -- for the numbers of children who lost parents or grandparents," study co-author Dr. Juliette Unwin said in a press release.

"In the months ahead variants and the slow pace of vaccination globally threaten to accelerate the pandemic, even in already incredibly hard-hit countries, resulting in millions more children experiencing orphanhood," said Unwin, a research fellow in medicine at Imperial College London in England.

More than 1.5M children lost a primary or secondary caregiver due to the COVID-19 pandemic

Addressing the impact of caregiver deaths critical for pediatric mental health, authors note

NIH/NATIONAL INSTITUTE ON DRUG ABUSE

Research NewsL

More than 1.5 million children around the world are estimated to have lost at least one parent, custodial grandparent, or grandparent who lived with them due to death related to COVID-19 during the first 14 months of the pandemic, according to a study published today in The Lancet. The study highlights orphanhood as an urgent and overlooked consequence of the pandemic and emphasizes that providing evidence-based psychosocial and economic support to children who have lost a caregiver must be a key part of responding to the pandemic.

The analysis used mortality and fertility data to model rates of COVID-19-associated orphanhood (death of one or both parents) and deaths of custodial and co-residing grandparents (ages 60-84) from March 1, 2020 to April 30, 2021, across 21 countries. This study was funded in part by the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA), part of the National Institutes of Health.

In the paper, "COVID-19-associated deaths" referred to the combination of deaths caused directly by COVID-19 and those caused indirectly by other associated causes, such as lockdowns, restrictions on gatherings and movement, decreased access or acceptability of health care and of treatment for chronic diseases.

Traumatic experiences, such as the loss of a parent or caregiver, are associated with increases in substance use, mental health conditions, and other behavioral and chronic health conditions. NIDA supports research aimed at understanding the impact of trauma on young people, preventing substance use after experiencing hardship, and treating substance use in populations that experience trauma.

"Studies like this play a crucial role in illuminating the COVID-19 pandemic's long-lasting consequences for families and the future mental health and wellbeing of children across the globe," said NIDA Director Nora D. Volkow, M.D. "Though the trauma a child experiences after the loss of a parent or caregiver can be devastating, there are evidence-based interventions that can prevent further adverse consequences, such as substance use, and we must ensure that children have access to these interventions."

To estimate pandemic-associated orphanhood and caregiver deaths, the study used excess mortality and COVID-19 mortality data for 21 countries that accounted for 77% of global COVID-19 deaths during 2020 and early 2021. These include Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, England and Wales, France, Germany, India, Iran, Italy, Kenya, Malawi, Mexico, Nigeria, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russian Federation, South Africa, Spain, United States, and Zimbabwe.

The authors estimate that 1,134,000 children lost a parent or custodial grandparent due to COVID-19-associated death. Of these, 1,042,000 children were orphaned of a mother, father, or both - most lost one, not both parents. Overall, 1,562,000 children are estimated to have experienced the death of at least one parent or a custodial or other co-residing grandparent (or other older relative).

The countries with the highest numbers of children who lost primary caregivers (parents or custodial grandparents) included South Africa, Peru, United States, India, Brazil, and Mexico. The countries with rates of COVID-19-associated deaths among primary caregivers (>1/1000 children) included Peru, South Africa, Mexico, Brazil, Colombia, Iran, United States, Argentina, and Russia.

The study found that for every country, COVID-19 associated deaths were greater in men than women, particularly in middle- and older-ages. Overall, there were up to five times more children who lost a father than who lost a mother.

"We know from our research that loss of a parent or caregiver can upend children's lives and potentially affect their development if they are not in a stable home setting. If we take into consideration variants of concern or possible severity of illness among youth, we must not forget that the pandemic continues to pose a threat to parents and caregivers - and their children," said Chuck A. Nelson, III, Ph.D., study author, Boston Children's Hospital.

While research on the science of substance use and addiction remains the primary focus of NIDA's work, NIDA is supporting COVID-19 research, and has issued over $15 million in funding for COVID-19-related projects since the start of the pandemic that could leverage current infrastructure, projects, or scientific knowledge and resources.

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Reference: S Hillis, et al. Global Minimum Estimates of Children Affected by COVID-19-associated Orphanhood and Death of Caregivers. The Lancet. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(21)01253-8 (2021).

About the National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA): NIDA is a component of the National Institutes of Health, U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. NIDA supports most of the world's research on the health aspects of drug use and addiction. The Institute carries out a large variety of programs to inform policy, improve practice, and advance addiction science. For more information about NIDA and its programs, visit http://www.nida.nih.gov.

About the National Institutes of Health (NIH): NIH, the nation's medical research agency, includes 27 Institutes and Centers and is a component of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. NIH is the primary federal agency conducting and supporting basic, clinical, and translational medical research, and is investigating the causes, treatments, and cures for both common and rare diseases. For more information about NIH and its programs, visit http://www.nih.gov.

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The Lancet: 1.5 million children worldwide have lost parent, grandparent, caregiver due to COVID-19

THE LANCET

Research News

• Study offers first global estimates of the number of children who experienced the death of a parent, grandparent, or primary caregiver from COVID-19.

• Researchers estimated figures based on COVID-19 mortality data from March 2020 through April 2021, and national fertility statistics for 21 countries, and extrapolated findings to produce global estimates.

• Findings suggest 1 million children have lost a parent, 1.1 million have lost a parent or custodial grandparent, and more than 1.5 million have lost a parent, custodial grandparent, or other secondary familial caregiver from COVID-19.

• Authors call for urgent investments in services to support children who have lost their parents and caregivers.

An estimated 1.5 million children worldwide have experienced the death of a parent, custodial grandparent, or other relative who cared for them, as a result of COVID-19, according to a new study published in The Lancet.

Of those, more than 1 million children experienced the death of one or both parents during the first 14 months of the pandemic, and another half a million experienced the death of a grandparent caregiver living in their own home, the study estimates.

Children who have lost a parent or caregiver are at risk of profound short- and long-term adverse effects on their health, safety, and wellbeing, such as increasing the risk of disease, physical abuse, sexual violence, and adolescent pregnancy. The researchers call for urgent action to address the impact of caregiver deaths on children into COVID-19 response plans.

Dr Susan Hillis, one of the lead authors on the study, from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention COVID-19 Response Team says: "For every two COVID-19 deaths worldwide, one child is left behind to face the death of a parent or caregiver. By April 30, 2021, these 1.5 million children had become the tragic overlooked consequence of the 3 million COVID-19 deaths worldwide, and this number will only increase as the pandemic progresses [1]. Our findings highlight the urgent need to prioritize these children and invest in evidence-based programs and services to protect and support them right now and to continue to support them for many years into the future - because orphanhood does not go away." [2]

Before the pandemic, there were an estimated 140 million orphaned children worldwide. These children have greater risks of mental health problems, family poverty, and physical, emotional, and sexual violence. They are also more likely to die by suicide or develop a chronic disease, such as heart disease, diabetes, cancer, or stroke.

The COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in more children facing the loss of a parent or caregiver. In addition, as older adults are the most vulnerable to COVID-19, many children living in multigenerational families will have experienced the death of a grandparent. Evidence shows that grandparents are increasingly playing key roles in providing care and financial support for their grandchildren worldwide. [3]

Study author Professor Lucie Cluver, Oxford University, UK, and the University of Cape Town, South Africa, says: "We have strong evidence from HIV and Ebola to guide solutions. We need to support extended families or foster families to care for children, with cost-effective economic strengthening, parenting programs, and school access. We need to vaccinate caregivers of children - especially grandparent caregivers. And we need to respond fast because every 12 seconds a child loses their caregiver to COVID-19." [2].

Before this report, there were no global figures to quantify how many children have been affected by the loss of a caregiver during the COVID-19 pandemic, either directly (due to the virus) or indirectly (due to another condition that was exacerbated due to the pandemic). The study's researchers developed mathematical models using the best available data as an initial attempt to estimate the magnitude of this hidden impact of the pandemic on children.

Implementing methods similar to those used by the UNAIDS Reference Group on Estimates, Modelling and Projections for estimating the number of children orphaned by AIDS [4], the authors based the COVID-19 orphanhood estimates on mortality data for 21 countries that account for 77% of global COVID-19 deaths [5]. The analysis included both reported COVID-19 deaths between 1 March 2020 and 30 April 2021 and the number of excess deaths (when such data were available), during the same time-period, to account for variations in country-specific reporting systems.

The researchers linked COVID-19 death rates to fertility data for males and females from those 21 countries [6] to estimate the number of children who had lost a parent as a consequence of COVID-19. Loss of both parents was accounted for so that children were not counted twice.

The researchers extended their analysis to include deaths of grandparents or other older adults aged 60 to 84 years who were living in the same household as the children, based on United Nations Population Division's statistics on household composition. These figures take into account custodial grandparents (living with grandchildren in absence of parents), who have primary responsibility for their grandchildren's care, as well as co-residing grandparents and other older family members, who live in the same household (with grandchildren and parents) and have secondary, but not primary caring responsibilities.

Mathematical modelling was used to extrapolate the findings from these 21 countries to the rest of the world, using country-level data on COVID-19 deaths and fertility rates. The model showed a high correlation between female fertility rate and the ratio of orphans to deaths.

The findings suggest that at least 1,134,000 children experienced the death of their mother, father, or custodial grandparents, as a consequence of COVID-19. Of these, an estimated 1,042,000 lost their mother or father, or both. Overall, 1,562,000 children are estimated to have experienced the death of at least one parent or a custodial or other co-residing grandparent (or other older relative).

Countries with the highest rates of children losing their primary caregiver (parent or custodial grandparent) included: Peru (1 child per 100, totalling 98,975 children), South Africa (5 children per 1,000, totalling 94,625 children), Mexico (3 children per 1000, totalling 141,132 children), Brazil (2 children per 1,000, totalling 130,363 children), Colombia (2 children per 1,000, totalling 33,293 children), Iran (>1 child per 1,000, totalling 40,996 children), USA (>1 child per 1,000, totalling 113,708 children), and Russian Federation (1 child per 1,000, totalling 29,724 children).

In April 2021, in India, the researchers estimate an 8.5-fold increase in the numbers of children newly orphaned (43,139) compared to March 2021 (5,091).

For almost every country, deaths were greater in men than women, particularly in middle and older ages. Overall, up to five times more children lost their fathers than lost their mothers.

The authors note that children experiencing COVID-19-associated deaths of parents or caregivers are at greater risk of family separation and institutionalization, such as being placed in orphanages or care homes. They argue this should be avoided because it has negative effects on social, physical, and mental development.

Dr Seth Flaxman, one of the study's lead authors, from Imperial College London, UK, says: "The hidden pandemic of orphanhood is a global emergency, and we can ill afford to wait until tomorrow to act. Out of control COVID-19 epidemics abruptly and permanently alter the lives of the children who are left behind. Tomorrow is too late for the child institutionalized in an orphanage, who will grow up profoundly damaged by the experience. We urgently need to identify the children behind these numbers and strengthen monitoring systems, so that every child can be given the support they need to thrive." [2]

The researchers say their findings are likely underestimates because figures for a number of countries included in the study were based on COVID-19 mortality only and excess death data were unavailable. COVID-19 deaths may be underreported because of variability in SARS-CoV-2 testing and reporting systems.

Dr Juliette Unwin, another lead author from Imperial College London, UK, adds, "Our study establishes minimum estimates--lower bounds--for the numbers of children who lost parents and /or grandparents. Tragically, many demographic, epidemiological, and healthcare factors suggest that the true numbers affected could be orders of magnitude larger. In the months ahead variants and the slow pace of vaccination globally threaten to accelerate the pandemic, even in already incredibly hard-hit countries, resulting in millions more children experiencing orphanhood." [2]

The authors note some limitations to their results. Their study is based on the best available data, but many countries do not have robust reporting systems for deaths or fertility. Additionally, data on country-specific prevalence of orphans before the pandemic was lacking, so their estimates of double orphans are limited to deaths of both parents during the pandemic.

Writing in a linked Comment, Assistant Professor Rachel Kentor of Baylor College of Medicine, USA and Amanda Thompson of Inova Schar Cancer Institute, USA, (who were not involved in the study), say: "By answering the authors' call to expand our worldwide pandemic response to include caring for children, the global community can capitalise on this momentum; we can harness the current global attention on children bereaved by the pandemic to mobilise resources and implement systemic, sustainable supports for bereaved youth around the world."

As part of this work, the authors developed a real-time COVID-19 calculator [7], providing ongoing updated estimates of COVID-19-associated orphanhood and death of caregivers for every country in the world. These estimates as of the end of April 2021, along with an evidence-based strategy for action as described in the paper, can also be found in a policy report authored by the Global Reference Group for Children Affected by COVID: "Children: The Hidden Pandemic 2021 - A joint report of COVID-19-associated mortality and a strategy for action." [8]

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Peer-reviewed / Modelling

NOTES TO EDITORS

This study was funded by UK Research and Innovation (UKRI) Global Challenges Research Fund Accelerator Hub, UKRI Medical Research Council, UKRI Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, UK National Institute for Health Research, Imperial College COVID-19 Research Fund and the US National Institutes of Health. It was conducted by researchers from the Centers for Disease Control COVID-19 Response Team (USA), Imperial College London (UK), the University of Oxford (UK), University of Copenhagen (Denmark), University of Cape Town (South Africa), the World Health Organization, University College London (UK), Maestral International, US Agency for International Development, World Without Orphans, World Bank Group and Harvard Medical School.

[1] Johns Hopkins University Coronavirus Resource Center. https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/

[2] Quote direct from author and cannot be found in the text of the Article.

[3] Chamie J. Increasingly Indispensable Grandparents. 2018. https://archive-yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/increasingly-indispensable-grandparents

[4] UNAIDS, UNICEF, USAID. Children on the Brink 2004. A Joint Report of New Orphan Estimates and a Framework for Action: UNICEF, 2004.

[5] The 21 countries are: Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, England and Wales, France, Germany, India, Islamic Republic of Iran, Italy, Kenya, Malawi, Mexico, Nigeria, Peru, Philippines, Poland, Russian Federation, South Africa, Spain, USA and Zimbabwe.

[6] Fertility rates were calculated from country-specific data for male and female and fertility (UK), figures reported in the Demographic and Health Survey, or figures from the UN World Prospects and UN Statistics Division, alongside population estimates.

[7] For Imperial College's Calculator giving up-to-date minimum estimates by country of minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19 orphanhood and death of caregivers: https://imperialcollegelondon.github.io/orphanhood_calculator

For Imperial College's Interactive Visualization enabling comparisons between countries and over time of minimum estimates of children affected by COVID-19 orphanhood and death of caregivers: https://imperialcollegelondon.github.io/orphanhood_trends

[8] Children: The Hidden Pandemic 2021 - A joint report of COVID-19-associated orphanhood and a strategy for action (CDC, USAID, World Bank, WHO, University College London, University of Oxford, Imperial College, University of Cape Town) For embargoed access, please see: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1_wJnjGCtLFYC4LIGoT7L24xIr4vvmkpa/view?usp=sharing

Post-embargo it will be available via: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/downloads/community/orphanhood-report.pdf

The labels have been added to this press release as part of a project run by the Academy of Medical Sciences seeking to improve the communication of evidence. For more information, please see: http://www.sciencemediacentre.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/AMS-press-release-labelling-system-GUIDANCE.pdf if you have any questions or feedback, please contact The Lancet press office pressoffice@lancet.com

IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE A LINK FOR YOUR READERS, PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING, WHICH WILL GO LIVE AT THE TIME THE EMBARGO LIFTS: http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01253-8/fulltext

Sen. Rand Paul, Dr. Anthony Fauci clash over accusations of Wuhan lab funding



Dr. Anthony Fauci told Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., "you do not know what you're talking about" after he accused Fauci of lying about the National Institute of Health of Health's role in funding research at a Wuhan lab. Pool Photo by J. Scott Applewhite/UPI | License Photo

July 20 (UPI) -- Sen. Rand Paul and Dr. Anthony Fauci clashed Tuesday after the lawmaker accused the top medical adviser of lying about the National Institute of Health's role in funding research in Wuhan, China.

During a Senate health committee about the U.S. response to the COVID-19 pandemic, Paul, R-Ky., asked Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, if he was lying in a May 11 testimony before Congress in which he said the NIH "has not ever and does not now" fund gain-of-function research -- which aims to increase the transmissibility of an organism to study disease -- at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.

"Dr. Fauci, knowing that it is a crime to lie to Congress, do you wish to retract your statement of May 11, where you claimed that the NIH never funded gain-of-function research and move on?" Paul said.

Fauci sharply rejected the accusation.

"Sen. Paul, I have never lied before the Congress. And I do not retract that statement," he said.

Paul suggested the NIH and Fauci could hold partial responsibility for the COVID-19 pandemic that has resulted in the deaths of 4 million people worldwide, as cases of the novel coronavirus first emerged in Wuhan.

President Joe Biden in May asked the U.S. intelligence community to "redouble their efforts" to find the likely origins of COVID-19, asking for further inquiries that may be required, including specific questions for China.

Paul cited an academic paper by a Chinese scientist to allege that gain-of-function research was performed in the Wuhan Institute of Virology lab with NIH funding.

"We don't know that it did come from the lab, but all the evidence is pointing that it came from the lab, and there will be responsibility for those who funded the lab, including yourself," the senator said.

Fauci sought to explain that the paper Paul cited did not represent gain-of-function research and shouted at the senator to let him finish speaking as the lawmaker attempted to interject.

"Sen. Paul, you do not know what you're talking about, quite frankly. And I want to say that officially, you do not know what you're talking about," Fauci said.

Paul accused Fauci of "obfuscating the truth" and Fauci promptly returned the accusation to the senator.

"I totally resent the lie that you are now propagating, senator," Fauci said. "If you look at the viruses that were used in the experiments, that were given in the annual reports, that were published in the literature, it is molecularly impossible."


Fauci went on to say that Tuesday's comment represents "a pattern that Sen. Paul has been doing now at multiple hearings based on no reality."

"He keeps talking about gain-of-function. This has been evaluated multiple times by qualified people to not fall under the gain-of-function definition," he said.

New study examines commuter characteristics and traffic pollution exposure among commuters

George Mason University faculty Jenna Krall studies commuter habits, such as departure time and commute length, and their associations with air pollution exposure

GEORGE MASON UNIVERSITY

Research News

The link between on-road traffic and air pollution is well-known, as are the negative health impacts of pollution exposure. However, the many factors that may influence commuters' exposure to pollutants - such as frequency, time, and duration of commute - and the overall impact of commuting remains a matter of on-going scientific discovery.

Dr. Jenna Krall, assistant professor at the George Mason University College of Health and Human Services, is using statistical methods to better understand exposure to air pollution. Krall studies how commuting patterns impact exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from various traffic-related sources such as tailpipe emissions, road salts, and brake wear.

New research from Krall and colleagues published in Environmental Research examines commuter characteristics to better understand how factors such as departure time, commute length, and number of trips are associated with exposure to PM2.5. Building on a study of 46 women's exposure to PM2.5 using personal air pollution monitors, the new research clustered commuters to determine whether these clusters were associated with traffic pollution exposures. The new study reveals that commuters that travel to work during rush hour have higher overall exposure to traffic-related air pollution compared to sporadic commuters, though the difference was not statistically significant.

As COVID-19 infection rates decline in most areas of the country and employers weigh whether to continue work-from-home policies, studies such as this provide important insight into the role that daily commutes can play in personal air pollution exposure and the public's health.

"This is one of the first studies to utilize in-vehicle monitoring, specifically on-board diagnostics data loggers, to understand real-world commuting behaviors for environmental health," said Krall, "Linking these data with personal air pollution monitoring allowed us to better understand how commuter characteristics are associated with sources of air pollution exposures."

"The current research cannot tell us whether modifying commutes, for example by avoiding highways or commuting outside of rush hour, will lower traffic pollution exposures for commuters. More research is needed to determine what changes would be effective to lower exposures," says Krall.

Krall's on-going research seeks to distinguish between similar sources of traffic pollution, such as pollution generated by brake wear or from tailpipe emissions, and to develop statistical methods to better estimate exposure to pollution sources.

Study participants included 46 women commuters in northern Virginia who were exposed to pollution generated by mobile vehicles, road salts, and other sources throughout a 48-hour period.

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The study was funded through a multidisciplinary seed grant from George Mason University and Thomas F. and Kate Miller Jeffress Memorial Trust, Bank of America, Trustee.

About George Mason University

George Mason University is Virginia's largest and most diverse public research university. Located near Washington, D.C., Mason enrolls 39,000 students from 130 countries and all 50 states. Mason has grown rapidly over the past half-century and is recognized for its innovation and entrepreneurship, remarkable diversity and commitment to accessibility. For more information, visit https://www2.gmu.edu/.

About the College of Health and Human Services

George Mason University's College of Health and Human Services prepares students to become leaders and shape the public's health through academic excellence, research of consequence, community outreach, and interprofessional clinical practice. George Mason is the fastest-growing Research I institution in the country. The College enrolls more than 1,900 undergraduate and 1,370 graduate students in its nationally-recognized offerings, including: 6 undergraduate degrees, 13 graduate degrees, and 7 certificate programs. The college is transitioning to a college of public health in the near future. For more information, visit https://chhs.gmu.edu/.

Disclaimer: AAAS and EurekAlert! are not respon

 

Of lives and life years: 1918 influenza vs COVID-19

Next time, vaccination may be too little, too late

SOCIETY FOR DISASTER MEDICINE AND PUBLIC HEALTH, INC.

Research News

 

IMAGE: HTTPS://WWWNC.CDC.GOV/EID/ARTICLE/12/1/05-0979_ARTICLE view more 

CREDIT: CDC EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASES, JANUARY 2006

From the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic there have been countless comparisons to the 1918 influenza pandemic in terms of overall medical impact. Many of the comparisons addressed overall cases which, given the lack of a confirmatory lab test in 1918 and no meaningful case definitions for both pandemics, make such comparisons patently invalid. Overall mortality comparisons, although methodologically flawed as well, do offer a reasonably comparative outcome measure and offers a greater degree of validity. This measure is further enhanced when adjusted for population and average life years lost (see accompanying table for mortality comparisons presented 3 ways). The resulting value(s) can also be used to assess and better quantify the cumulative health impacts of our interventions and give a more objective base for our decision-making. A concluding observation is presented on the impact of a rapidly developed vaccine on a 1918 type event.

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SCHADENFRUEDE

People becoming desensitized to COVID-19 illnesses, death, research suggests

UC Davis study points out need to consider future public health responses

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - DAVIS

Research News

 

Although people in early 2020 hoarded toilet paper, washed their hands incessantly, and wouldn't leave home, 11 months later the public pushed the envelope on COVID-19 safety precautions and ignored warnings as time went on, a new University of California, Davis, study suggests.

Researchers in the Department of Communication examined people's reactions and expressions of anxiety about news articles on Twitter. Additionally, they investigated reactions to fear-inducing health news over time, despite the steadily rising COVID-19 death toll, said Hannah Stevens, a doctoral student in communication and lead author of the paper.

The paper, "Desensitization to Fear-Inducting COVID-19 Health News on Twitter: Observational Study," was published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research Infodemiology on July 16. The researchers examined how COVID-19 news articles shared to Twitter were first met with anxiety-ridden tweets early in the pandemic, during a coinciding spike in instances of panic-buying, extreme social distancing and quarantine measures. Despite the increased death toll, those behaviors then gave way over time to less concerned responses to COVID-19 news, along with increases in societal risk-taking during that time period.

"COVID-19 has made an indelible mark on history, and now it's time to consider what went wrong so we can do better in communicating more effectively during future health crises, and even now, as the delta variant becomes more widespread," said Stevens. "First and foremost, we need to understand how and why scary health news lost impact over time, despite the rapidly increasing death toll."

The authors set out to test the hypothesis that early fear-based health messages in news reports significantly motivated individuals to take actions to control the threat, yet over-exposure to the same messages desensitized people -- or made them less likely to feel anxious over time.

During a period of 11 months, the team used a computerized methodology to analyze linguistic anxiety levels in hundreds of COVID-19 news articles on Twitter, along with the anxiety levels in corresponding user tweets. They then correlated the findings with the COVID-19 death toll in the United States.

"Our study shows a need to delve deeper into how to re-sensitize the public and motivate them to take action in the face of an ongoing emergency. Testing the effectiveness of various health-risk communication strategies could quite possibly mean the difference between life and death in the future," Stevens said.

"If another health crisis occurred today, or COVID-19 takes another turn for the worse, it is essential for public health officials to consider that they are communicating to a desensitized public. I hope that this paper can be an impetus to get that discussion started."

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Co-authors of the paper are Laramie D. Taylor, chair and professor of communication, and Yoo Jung (Erika) Oh, doctoral candidate in the Department of Communication.

Full study is available here: https://infodemiology.jmir.org/2021/1/e26876

MINIMUM WAGE $15 NO DIFFERENTIAL

'Service with a smile' plus tipping leads to sexual harassment for majority of service employees

UNIVERSITY OF NOTRE DAME

Research News

 

Two common practices in the U.S. restaurant industry -- service with a smile and tipping -- contribute to a culture of sexual harassment, according to new research from the University of Notre Dame.

"A perfect storm: Customer sexual harassment as a joint function of financial dependence and emotional labor" was recently published in the Journal of Applied Psychology from Timothy Kundro, assistant professor of management and organization at Notre Dame's Mendoza College of Business.

In the study, co-authored by Alicia Grandey and Vanessa Burke from Penn State University and Gordon Sayre from Emlyon Business School in France, more than 66 percent of restaurant employees reported facing some form of sexual harassment in the past six months.

Previous research has looked at the idea that customers can engage in sexual harassment. But this study is the first to examine why sexual harassment is so pervasive in the service industry itself. It's also the first to empirically link tipping to sexual harassment. 

"Service employee dependence on tips and requirements for friendly displays lead customers to experience a heightened sense of power -- which can lead them to engage in sexual harassment," said Kundro, whose research examines when and why employees engage in dysfunctional behavior, specifically looking at ethics, discrimination and impression management. "We show it's really the joint effects of customer tipping and requirements for positive gestures that drive sexual harassment. When either isn't present, customers don't feel the same sense of power."

The team conducted two studies. In the first, they asked 92 full-time service employees to report the percentage of their income dependent on tips and the extent to which their organization requires them to maintain positive displays with customers. The researchers asked the service employees to report how much power they felt customers had and then asked the employees to report how frequently they experience sexual harassment. 

The team recruited 229 men for the second study to analyze the customer perspective. They manipulated the dependence on tips and the facial display of the waitress. The men then reported the extent to which they would feel power and would engage in sexual harassment behaviors.

"It's really compelling, in my view," Kundro said, "because we replicated this from both the perspective of the employee and the customer and our findings for each were the same -- employees who rely on tips face more sexual harassment, but only when required to engage in 'service with a smile.'"

The study suggests that service organizations can reduce customer power and sexual harassment by eliminating tipping dependence and/or requirements for "service with a smile."

"You really can't have both," Kundro said. "Yet, organizations often do -- which may explain why sexual harassment is so pervasive in the service industry. Our research shows that paying a fair wage or eliminating tipping practices can reduce the power differential between a service worker and an employee. Alternatively, organizations can also reduce or eliminate positive display requirements."

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To learn more, visit the Journal of Applied Psychology website at https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Fapl0000895.

ATTACK OF THE KILLER TOMATOS

Tomato fruits send electrical warnings to the rest of the plant when attacked by insects

FRONTIERS

Research News

A recent study in Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems shows that the fruits of a type of tomato plant send electrical signals to the rest of the plant when they are infested by caterpillars. Plants have a multitude of chemical and hormonal signaling pathways, which are generally transmitted through the sap (the nutrient-rich water that moves through the plant). In the case of fruits, nutrients flow exclusively to the fruit and there has been little research into whether there is any communication in the opposite direction--i.e. from fruit to plant.

"We usually forget that a plant's fruits are living and semiautonomous parts of their mother-plants, far more complex than we currently think. Since fruits are part of the plant, made of the same tissues of the leaves and stems, why couldn't they communicate with the plant, informing it about what they are experiencing, just like regular leaves do?" says first author Dr Gabriela Niemeyer Reissig, of the Federal University of Pelotas, Brazil. "What we found is that fruits can share important information such as caterpillar attacks--which is a serious issue for a plant--with the rest of the plant, and that can probably prepare other parts of the plant for the same attack."

A tomato's defense

To test the hypothesis that fruits communicate by electrical signals, Niemeyer Reissig and her collaborators placed tomato plants in a Faraday's cage with electrodes at the ends of the branches connecting the fruits to the plant. They then measured the electrical responses before, during and after the fruits had been attacked by Helicoverpa armigera caterpillars for 24 hours. The team also used machine learning to identify patterns in the signals.

The results showed a clear difference between the signals before and after attack. In addition, the authors measured the biochemical responses, such as defensive chemicals like hydrogen peroxide, across other parts of the plant. This showed that these defenses were triggered even in parts of the plant that were far away from the damage caused by the caterpillars.

The authors emphasize that these are still early results. Their measurements provide a "big picture" view of all of the electrical signals, rather than distinguishing individual signals more precisely. It will also be interesting to see whether this phenomenon holds true for other plant species, as well as different types of threats.

That said, this novel use of machine learning appears to have very high potential for answering these and other future questions. The technique may also provide new--and possibly more environmentally friendly--approaches for insect control in agriculture.

"If studies like ours continue to advance and the techniques for measuring electrical signals in open environments continue to improve, it will be possible to detect infestation of agricultural pests quite early, allowing for less aggressive control measures and more accurate insect management," explains Niemeyer Reissig. "Understanding how the plant interacts with its fruits, and the fruits among themselves, may bring insights about how to 'manipulate' this communication for enhancing fruit quality, resistance to pests and shelf life after harvest."

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Bleak cyborg future from brain-computer interfaces if we're not careful

Researchers warn of the potential social, ethical, and legal consequences of technologies interacting heavily with human brains.

AMERICAN INSTITUTE OF PHYSICS

Research News

 

IMAGE: A SCHEMATIC DEMONSTRATES THE STEPS REQUIRED FOR EBCI OPERATION. EEG SENSORS ACQUIRE ELECTRICAL SIGNALS FROM THE BRAIN, WHICH ARE PROCESSED AND OUTPUTTED TO CONTROL EXTERNAL DEVICES. view more 

CREDIT: PORTILLO-LARA ET AL.

WASHINGTON, July 20, 2021 -- Surpassing the biological limitations of the brain and using one's mind to interact with and control external electronic devices may sound like the distant cyborg future, but it could come sooner than we think.

Researchers from Imperial College London conducted a review of modern commercial brain-computer interface (BCI) devices, and they discuss the primary technological limitations and humanitarian concerns of these devices in APL Bioengineering, from AIP Publishing.

The most promising method to achieve real-world BCI applications is through electroencephalography (EEG), a method of monitoring the brain noninvasively through its electrical activity. EEG-based BCIs, or eBCIs, will require a number of technological advances prior to widespread use, but more importantly, they will raise a variety of social, ethical, and legal concerns.

Though it is difficult to understand exactly what a user experiences when operating an external device with an eBCI, a few things are certain. For one, eBCIs can communicate both ways. This allows a person to control electronics, which is particularly useful for medical patients that need help controlling wheelchairs, for example, but also potentially changes the way the brain functions.

"For some of these patients, these devices become such an integrated part of themselves that they refuse to have them removed at the end of the clinical trial," said Rylie Green, one of the authors. "It has become increasingly evident that neurotechnologies have the potential to profoundly shape our own human experience and sense of self."

Aside from these potentially bleak mental and physiological side effects, intellectual property concerns are also an issue and may allow private companies that develop eBCI technologies to own users' neural data.

"This is particularly worrisome, since neural data is often considered to be the most intimate and private information that could be associated with any given user," said Roberto Portillo-Lara, another author. "This is mainly because, apart from its diagnostic value, EEG data could be used to infer emotional and cognitive states, which would provide unparalleled insight into user intentions, preferences, and emotions."

As the availability of these platforms increases past medical treatment, disparities in access to these technologies may exacerbate existing social inequalities. For example, eBCIs can be used for cognitive enhancement and cause extreme imbalances in academic or professional successes and educational advancements.

"This bleak panorama brings forth an interesting dilemma about the role of policymakers in BCI commercialization," Green said. "Should regulatory bodies intervene to prevent misuse and unequal access to neurotech? Should society follow instead the path taken by previous innovations, such as the internet or the smartphone, which originally targeted niche markets but are now commercialized on a global scale?"

She calls on global policymakers, neuroscientists, manufacturers, and potential users of these technologies to begin having these conversations early and collaborate to produce answers to these difficult moral questions.

"Despite the potential risks, the ability to integrate the sophistication of the human mind with the capabilities of modern technology constitutes an unprecedented scientific achievement, which is beginning to challenge our own preconceptions of what it is to be human," Green said.

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The article "Mind the gap: State-of-the-art technologies and applications for EEG-based brain-computer interfaces" is authored by Roberto Portillo-Lara, Bogachan Tahirbegi, Christopher A.R. Chapman, Josef A. Goding, and Rylie A. Green. The article will appear in APL Bioengineering on July 20, 2021 (DOI: 10.1063/5.0047237). After that date, it can be accessed at https://doi.org/10.1063/5.0047237.

ABOUT THE JOURNAL

APL Bioengineering is an open access journal publishing significant discoveries specific to the understanding and advancement of physics and engineering of biological systems. See http://aip.scitation.org/journal/apb.

 

Biodiversity, climate change and the fate of coral reefs

Actions in coming decade will determine whether reefs survive, scientists say

OHIO STATE UNIVERSITY

Research News

An international group of researchers representing thousands of coral scientists across the globe is calling for new commitments and actions by the world's policymakers to protect and restore coral reefs.

In a paper presented July 20 at the International Coral Reef Symposium, the scientists said that the coming decade will likely offer the last chance for policymakers at all levels to prevent coral reefs "from heading towards world-wide collapse."

The paper, developed by the International Coral Reef Society, pushes for three strategies to save the reefs: addressing climate change, improving local conditions and actively restoring coral.

"The model projections show that up to 30% of coral reefs will persist through this century if we limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius," said Andréa Grottoli, distinguished professor of earth sciences at The Ohio State University, society president and a contributing author of the paper.

"But if we are to limit warming to 1.5 degrees, we have to do it now: The science and the models show that we have only a few years left to reduce carbon dioxide emissions that put us on that path. It has to happen this decade, or we won't make that target."

Coral reefs are at an inflection point, the researchers say. Stop climate change now - and start to reverse it - and some reefs might survive, with the possibility that they could be rebuilt in the future and provide the seeds to regrow damaged reefs elsewhere.

"From a coral reef perspective, we go from 30% of reefs surviving to only a few percent surviving if we don't act now," Grottoli said. "We are already faced with a grand challenge in trying to restore the reefs. Once we do eventually reduce carbon dioxide emissions and the planet is no longer warming at an accelerated rate, trying to restore from just a few percent is much more difficult."

This year, policymakers from around the world will create updated global frameworks for addressing both of those crises, via the upcoming Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP26) and the Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (COP15). Grottoli said the society created its policy paper to influence those frameworks.

The society's paper makes three asks of policymakers:

• Commit to addressing biodiversity loss and the effect climate change has had on coral reefs, ensure policies are ambitious enough to address those crises, and ensure that policies are implemented.
• Build coordinated actions across related policy fields at all levels of governance, from local councils to international bodies. This includes efforts in conservation, management and restoration, as well as policies that address climate change adaptation, biodiversity and sustainable development.
• Innovate new approaches to help coral adapt to climate change. Global warming is here, and adaptation is unavoidable. A small percentage of reefs and some coral species have been successfully managed. "Studies of these 'bright spots' provide important lessons to guide future actions, such as how local community participation can improve management outcomes," the scientists wrote.

"As bad as climate change has been for the last decades, we also have lost vast amounts of coral reefs through overfishing, pollution and other local actions, and we need to tackle both of those fronts simultaneously," said Nancy Knowlton, lead author of the paper and Sant Chair for Marine Science Emerita at the Smithsonian Institution's National Museum of Natural History.

"Climate change is important but it's important that these other things aren't neglected. There's no time for arguing about which is most important; we need to do all of them."

Coral reefs are crucial ecosystems, housing about a third of the known ocean species despite covering less than 0.1% of the world's oceans. They are also critical for local food supplies and economies. Reef-related tourism alone generates some $36 billion per year and the global economic value of reefs across all sectors approaches $10 trillion per year.

They are sources for important biochemical compounds, including drugs that treat cancer.

And they protect coasts from storm flooding: A healthy reef can break waves and buffer more than 90% of incoming wave height and energy. In the United States and its territories alone, according to the ICRS paper, the annual value of flood risk reduction provided by coral reefs is more than 18,000 lives affected by flooding and $1.8 billion. Without reefs, researchers have estimated that annual flood damage would more than double, and that flooding would increase by 69%.

But reefs are particularly susceptible to the negative effects of climate change, which causes ocean temperatures to increase and ocean waters to acidify. Those environmental changes can cause coral to bleach, stop growing and die.

"The window for opportunities to act both on coral reef adaptation and on climate change mitigation will soon close for good," said David Obura, contributing author to the paper and director of CORDIO East Africa, a nonprofit research organization focused on coral reefs and sustainability in Africa. "We need a massive increase in commitment now and even more in coming years, coherence across all scales and jurisdictions, and innovation - new mindsets, approaches and techniques. More than anything we need everyone to act, including us scientists by providing our approaches and knowledge, to do our part in saving coral reefs."

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The ICRS policy paper was authored by scientists from the U.S., Africa, Europe, the Middle East and Australia. The mission of the ICRS is to promote the acquisition and dissemination of scientific knowledge to secure the future of coral reefs, including via relevant policy frameworks and decision-making processes. The policy statement released in coordination with the 14th International Coral Reef Symposium is the most comprehensive in the society's history.

The full document, along with translations of this press release and the paper's executive summary (Spanish, German, French, Portuguese, Arabic and Mandarin), are available online at http://coralreefs.org/publications/rebuilding_coral_reefs/