Sunday, July 25, 2021

G20 ministers stuck on global warming caps

LOWER IT TO 1.5 ,,,,,WHAT ....I CAN'T HEAR YOU 

By DW News 
Rome, July 24: The G20 ministers responsible for climate, energy and environment failed to reach a consensus on more ambitious climate goals after talks in Italy on Friday. 

Following the discussions in Naples, several countries rejected the idea of committing to keeping global warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit), said Roberto Cingolani, the Italian Minister for Ecological Transition.

The countries instead only pledged to aim for the less ambitious target in the Paris Climate Agreement of keeping the increase in the Earth's temperature to well below 2 degrees, while continuing efforts to reduce it to 1.5 degrees, a joint declaration said. 

Global warming has already seen a 1.2-degree increase compared to pre-industrial times, with fatal climate consequences, such as heatwaves, droughts, and floods. Environmental disasters and global warming Cingolani told reporters that concern over last week's deadly floods in Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands was at the forefront of discussions during the two days of negotiations in southern Italy. Germany and the European Union are both G20 members. 

G20 ministers' meet: What you need to know "All began by offering condolences," Cingolani said. Such natural disasters are "changing consciences." 

Climate scientists say the link between extreme weather and global warming is unmistakable, while calling for urgent action. Between them, the G20 countries account for some 80% of the world's gross domestic product and some 60% of the planet's population.

INDIA
Manipur HC orders release of journalist charged under NSA for post against cow urine as Covid cure

The ruling came in the same week when the Supreme Court ordered the release of an activist, who was charged along with journalist Kishorchandra Wangkhem
.
Scroll Staff
Jul 23, 2021 ·
Manipur journalist Kishorechandra Wangkhem | Facebook/Wangkhemcha Wangthoi


The Manipuri High Court on Friday ordered the release of journalist Kishorchandra Wangkhem, who has been charged under the National Security Act, reported Bar and Bench.

Wangkhem, along with activist Erendro Leichombam, were charged under the Act in May, for Facebook posts they put up after the death of Manipur Bharatiya Janata Party chief Saikhom Tikendra Singh due to Covid-related complications. They had criticised the saffron party for purportedly promoting cow urine as a cure for the infection.


The police had arrested Leichombam and Wangkhem on May 13. Later on May 17, an Imphal court granted them bail, but before they could be released, the government invoked the National Security Act.


“Cow dung [and] cow urine didn’t work,” Wangkhem had written in his Facebook post. “Groundless argument. Tomorrow, I will eat fish.”


On Monday, the Supreme Court had ordered the release of Leichombam, saying that his “continued detention of the petitioner would be a violation of the right to life and personal liberty under Article 21”.


The order to release Wangkhem was passed by a bench of Chief Justice PV Sanjay Kumar and Justice KH Nobin Singh on a petition moved by the journalist’s wife Ranjita. The High Court ordered that the journalist should be released by 5 pm on Friday, reported Live Law.

Advocate Chongtham Victor, representing Wangkhem, said that the matter of compensation for his client’s unlawful detention will be decided on August 24.

In her petition in a form of a letter addressed to the judges of the High Court, Ranjita had stated Leichombam and Wangkhem were arrested on the same charges. While the Supreme Court ordered Leichombam’s release, Wangkhem is still in jail, she said.

The High Court also observed that there was no difference between the cases of Leichombam and Wangkhem as both of them had put up similar Facebook posts.

Borrowing observations from the Supreme Court’s verdict in Leichombam’s case, the bench said: “As they stand identically situated, we are of the opinion that the continued incarceration of the petitioner’s husband [Wangkhem] would be as much a violation of Article 21 of the Constitution [right to life or personal liberty] as it was in the case of Erendro Leichombam.”

In May, the Imphal court had criticised the police and said that they should not arrest someone under section 41 of the Criminal Procedure Code before they can “satisfy themselves” on the reasons behind the arrest. The section pertains to the arrests that the police may make without issuing a warrant.

The court had said the police should explain their reasons behind the arrest and warned that a failure to comply would lead to departmental action.

In 2018, the police had invoked the National Security Act against Wangkhem after he posted a Facebook video critical of Manipur Chief Minister N Biren Singh and Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
UK
Leeds NHS and hospital workers criticise Government's 'pathetic' three per cent pay rise

By Rebecca Marano
Friday, 23rd July 2021

The Government was already under attack for previously recommending a one per cent pay rise, despite the incredible pressure NHS staff have been under.

An expected Commons statement at lunchtime on Wednesday, July 21 failed to materialise, but a few hours later the Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) issued a press release saying a three per cent rise will be paid, backdated to April.

NHS staff and supporters had held an earlier protest in Millennium Square, demonstrating against the one per cent rise and calling to an end to privatisation.

NHS staff and supporters protesting in Millennium Square earlier this month.

Union groups in Leeds said the three per cent rise is still not enough, calling it a "kick in the teeth" and said it will not reverse current pressures on NHS staff.

UNISON Branch Chair for Leeds Teaching Hospitals, John Ingleson, said: "The branch has been contacted by a variety of members from the full range of pay bands and job roles appalled by the three per cent announcement.

"They know that this pathetic offer will not reverse the staffing crisis we all suffer from.

"Skilled workers will go elsewhere, and the NHS as a whole will suffer.

"I have been honoured to witness my colleagues professionalism and bravery throughout the many months of this crisis.

"Unfortunately they are all now mentally exhausted."

Mr Ingleson added: "This pay deal was the Government's opportunity to relieve the fatigue by showing they care and to show they want to fix the nationwide short staffing.

"This is a kick in the guts to my friends and my colleagues.

"To those people who believed the Tory 2019 election promises, remember the slogan 'deeds not words'.

"They promise the world whilst in practice they continue to destroy public services with their wilful neglect of the workforce."

Lead Organiser for Nurses United and registered Leeds nurse, Anthony Johnson, said: "At a time when we can see this Government has managed to let Coronavirus get out of control again, they are deciding to open up our society to new and deadly strains.

"Our nurses deserve better than to be treated like this.

"A year of unsafe PPE, a shoddy test and trace system, plans to riddle our NHS with privatisation through their white paper and now they reward nurses with a pay offer that won’t stop them using foodbanks or seeing their colleagues continue to leave in their thousands?

"We need our frontline nurses and our NHS ready for the task ahead and that is why we all need to step up and demand better from this Government.”

The Royal College of Midwives’ executive director for external affairs and one of the NHS Unions chief negotiators, Jon Skewes, said: “At least the limbo our hardworking members were left in by our shambolic Government has ended.

“We are disappointed that maternity staff in England will not receive a headline increase of 4% like their colleagues in Scotland.

“Through our evidence to the Pay Review Body, we managed to secure more than the 1% proposed by the Government, but again this is not backdated far enough or on par with the pay award in Scotland.”

The HCSA, the hospital doctors’ union, said it will meet in emergency session to discuss its response to a government pay offer.

HCSA president Dr Claudia Paoloni said: “This offer represents an improvement on the low bar the Government itself set earlier in the year, but is an insult to junior doctors who have once again received a lesser rise than their senior colleagues.

“These are doctors who have stood side by side with NHS colleagues in mounting the Covid response, rising to every challenge placed before them.

“These Consultants of the future will rightly feel aggrieved that once again they have been singled out for worse treatment, ignoring their efforts during this pandemic.

“We fear that given rampant inflation this offer will also be insufficient to address the looming impact on career choices among all grades after the long battle against Covid, which has caused many hospital doctors to reconsider their future, either by cutting hours or leaving the profession altogether. One in 10 are considering leaving permanently.”

The DHSC said the “average nurse” will receive an additional £1,000 a year, while many porters and cleaners will get around £540.

The pay rise will be paid to the majority of NHS staff in England including nurses, paramedics, consultants, dentists and salaried GPs.

It does not cover doctors and dentists in training.

The Government confirmed on Thursday, July 22 that there will be no new money to fund the pay rise for NHS staff in England.

No 10 said the rise would come out of the existing health service’s budget.

A spokesman for the Prime Minister said: “The pay uplift will be funded from within the NHS budget but we are very clear that it will not impact funding already earmarked for the NHS front line.

“You will already know that we gave the NHS a historical settlement in 2018, which saw its budget rise by £33.9 billion by 2023/24 and we’ve provided £92 billion to support the NHS and social care throughout the pandemic.”
Trump supporters are a big reason why Canada and the UK are beating the US on vaccinations


Analysis by Harry Enten, CNN
Updated  Sat July 24, 2021

President Donald Trump holds a Make America Great Again rally as he campaigns at Orlando Sanford International Airport in Sanford, Florida, on October 12, 2020.

(CNN)Poll of the week: A new Angus Reid poll from Canada finds that 86% of Canadians 18 and older have gotten or want a Covid-19 vaccine as soon as possible. The same poll shows that just 8% of Canadian adults do not want a Covid-19 vaccination.

This matches what the real-world data is showing us: Canadians are far more driven to get vaccinated than Americans.

What's the point: Just two months ago, less than 5% of Canadians were fully vaccinated against Covid-19. At the same time, about 40% of Americans were. Today, a little less than 50% of Americans are fully vaccinated, while a little more than 50% of Canadians are.

Among adults, more than 80% of the Canadian population is at least partially vaccinated, while the US has still not reached 70%.



A big reason (though not the only one) why Canada has overtaken the US is pretty clear: Political polarization is playing a smaller role in who is and is not getting vaccinated there. We see a similar phenomenon in the United Kingdom, where more than 50% of the population is also fully vaccinated.

(Note that those ages 12 and above are eligible for a Covid-19 vaccine in Canada and the United States, while, for most, the vaccine-eligible age in the UK is 18.)

In the Angus Reid poll in Canada, 85% of adults who voted for the center-left Liberal Party in 2019 have been at least partially vaccinated. It's a similar 84% for the progressive New Democratic Party.

Those percentages look similar to what we're seeing in the US for progressives. In a late June ​​NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll, 88% of those who voted for Joe Biden in the 2020 election said they had been vaccinated. A July CBS News/YouGov poll showed that 84% of Biden backers were at least partially vaccinated. A June Fox News poll put it at 81%.

But the difference between the two countries becomes clear when you examine conservatives. Among those adults who backed the Conservative Party in Canada's 2019 election, a lower 69% had received at least one dose.

Still, that's far greater than the 52% of Donald Trump supporters who have gotten a dose in an average of the Fox News, Marist and YouGov surveys.

It's worth noting that the US' vaccination patterns don't just differ from Canada's. They also differ significantly from those of another key ally: the United Kingdom.

When we examine the UK, we see that areas that were more likely to back the Conservative Party in the 2019 general election actually have a higher vaccination rate than areas where that support was weaker.

Specifically, let's examine the 533 constituencies in England (the most populated part of the United Kingdom) where we have vaccination data through July 18.

In the constituencies where the Conservatives did better than they did in the median constituency, about 90% of all adults on average have had at least one dose. In the constituencies where they did worse than the median, about 83% of all adults on average have had at least one dose.

(This gap holds even when you control for age, even as voting patterns are highly dependent on age in the UK.)

In the United States, the pattern, of course, is reversed and exacerbated. About 74% of the adult population has received at least one Covid-19 dose in the states Biden won and the District of Columbia, which Biden won too. It's only 59% in the states he lost.

It's not entirely clear why there is a partisan gap in the US and not in Canada or the UK.
It's possible that what we're seeing in the UK is an incumbent effect. That is, the leader in the UK is Conservative Party member Boris Johnson, and therefore Conservatives are more likely to line up behind the leader.

I would point out, though, that Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is a Liberal Party member, and the vaccination gap by party isn't as wide up there as it is in the States.

Further, the gap in vaccine acceptance in the US was evident even when Trump was president and promoting the idea of a vaccine, so this isn't just recent anti-vaccine rhetoric from some on the right. With the exception of a period around the 2020 election (when then-Democratic vice presidential nominee Kamala Harris and others raised questions about the vaccine approval process), Democrats always said they were more likely to get vaccinated than Republicans in Gallup polling.

To be clear, the partisan gap is not the only reason why the US is lagging. For example, the vaccination rate of those under age 30 is far higher in Canada and the UK than in the US. There are also fewer Black and Hispanic residents in Canada and the UK, who are less likely to get vaccinated in the US.

If the US were similar to these two other countries with regard to vaccination rates by age and race and ethnicity, the partisan gap in vaccines could be larger, because younger and minority groups are more likely to be Democrats.

Either way, the partisan gap is huge in the US compared with two of its closest allies with similar access to vaccines. If it didn't exist, we'd be in far better shape when fighting the pandemic.

A heat dome from central North America extends over north Yukon. (Screengrab/Courtesy Cameron Beccario)

YUKON

‘The world needs to take serious and immediate action’: Old Crow temperatures sound alarm on climate change

High temperatures, low water levels contine to imperile ecosytem and way of life for Vuntut Gwitchen

On July 22, Old Crow reached a historic high of 29.7 degrees Celsius, according to Environment Canada. The heat warning issued that day was the second since 2018.

Old Crow joins a growing group of exceptional heat readings and warnings from around the globe. On July 22, the Washington Post reported that “no fewer than five powerful heat domes are swelling over the land masses of the Northern Hemisphere.”

All-time record highs have been set in northern Ireland, northern Japan and Turkey while swarms of wildfires have engulfed British Columbia, California and Siberia.

But heat is not the only story.

The record high temperatures in Old Crow came after three weeks of extraordinarily low water levels in the Porcupine River. Benoit Turcotte, senior researcher in hydrology and climate change at Yukon University, explained that this year marks the lowest level ever recorded in a 46-year tracking period for the Old Crow River, which flows into the Porcupine River from Old Crow flats.

Crow Flats are a special management area in the traditional territory of the Vuntut Gwitchen, an area long recognized for its unique network of lakes and wetlands. Elders said the area had always acted as a ‘food bank’ with a rich diversity of inter-connected mammals, birds and plants.

Norma Kassi grew up in Old Crow. When she was very young, her grandfather warned of massive changes that would come to the area. He told her that she might not see the same lakes once she had children.

Twenty years ago, many birds left the flats. Zelma Lake vanished as melting permafrost literally collapsed the lake bottom and the water drained away. Other lakes disappeared. Animals moved to other areas and massive tracks of mud slumped on creeks and lake shores. Willows crept everywhere.

Crow Flats’ massive network of lakes feed the Old Crow and Porcupine rivers. Turcotte said today’s historically low water levels are cumulative, and the result of several years of decrease in the Porcupine River basin. This year is not a one-off.

For decades, Old Crow residents called for the world to notice as caribou habitat deteriorated, permafrost melted, lakes disappeared, and river levels dropped, affecting their food harvesting habits and traditional practices.

Kassi, now a highly recognized climate change educator and advocate, is amazed at the rapidity of the changes she has witnessed.

“Events have been so dramatic — the loss of culture and way of life,” she said.

The connection of climate change markers at play in the northern Yukon is remarkable, and disconcerting. Scientists are paying attention. The official from Environment Canada and Turcotte both expressed sadness at the cumulative indicators, sensing an inevitable expectation of other ramifications.

Low water levels and high temperatures spiral to increase water temperatures which accelerates permafrost melt which destabilizes land and water bodies, further impacting fish spawning, bird nesting and muskrat and caribou habitat which further disrupts traditional harvesting and cultural practices, inevitably impacting health and social well-being and an Indigenous way of life.

Kassi said “they should have listened earlier,” as the climate is now substantially changed. Now the emphasis is on protecting the caribou and remaining boreal forests.

“It is not too late but the world needs to take serious, and immediate action,” she said.

Environment Canada sees a slight cooling trend for Old Crow in the next week. But according to a North American ensemble of data, there is a 50 to 70 per cent probability that temperatures will return to high levels again at the beginning of August.

Environment Canada reminded that averages don’t really represent “normal” temperatures. We are living in a period of extremes and outliers.

Contact Lawrie Crawford at lawrie.crawford@yukon-news.com

Climate change: How Scotland can play a key role at vital Cop26 summit – Stop Climate Chaos Scotland

We now have less than 100 days to go until the UN climate summit, Cop26, arrives in Glasgow.

By Anne Callaghan And Erica Mason
Sunday, 25th July 2021
THE SCOTSMAN


Five years on from the Paris Agreement, and with countless evidence that the climate crisis is worsening, the negotiations will focus on nationally determined contributions to stop the world from warming above 1.5 degrees.

The onus is on richer countries in the Global North to shoulder the heaviest burden of emissions cuts while supporting countries in the Global South who are being hardest hit by climate change.

On Friday, Scotland published its climate targets and plans in an ‘indicative Nationally Determined Contribution (iNDC)’. This is the first time a devolved government, city, or region has presented its plans in the format required of nation state parties to the Paris Agreement ‒ and demonstrates a commitment from Scotland to do its part in a global crisis.

To drive up ambition, other nations similar to Scotland ‒ who cannot formally sign up to UN climate agreements ‒ could follow Scotland’s lead and submit similar plans ahead of future climate change talks.

But how do the commitments in Scotland's iNDC measure up against the action that we need? In 2019, Scotland set some of the most ambitious climate targets in the world, pledging by 2030 to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 75 per cent.


Meeting these goals requires urgent and significant changes to any ‘business as usual’ approach. Earlier this year, the Cabinet Secretary for Net Zero, Energy and Transport, Michael Matheson, made this clear when he announced that Scotland had missed its climate emissions targets for the last three years and ordered a catch-up report to be delivered within six months.
Wildfires rage around Lake Oroville, California, in September last year (Picture: Josh Edelson/AFP via Getty Images)

With the reality of a fundamentally altered climate hitting ever closer to home, even in the relatively sheltered Global North, it is simply not acceptable that Scotland has missed the last three years of targets.

Nor is it acceptable that the recently updated Climate Change Plan submitted to the Scottish Parliament and mandated by the 2019 Scottish Climate Change Act, lacks a credible plan to show exactly how Scotland will achieve its 75 per cent emissions reduction target by 2030.

Much more needs to be done ‒ urgently ‒ for Scotland to be a world leader on climate change. The people of Scotland have been demanding action: 68 per cent of adults agreed in one poll that climate change is an immediate and urgent problem. Young people in Scotland ‒ whose futures are at stake ‒ have been at the forefront of that movement.

One start would be to integrate the 166 recommendations made by a number of Scottish parliamentary committees to strengthen the Climate Change Plan update.

Rescue workers in Zhengzhou, China, move through floods that claimed the lives of at least 33 people last week (Photo by Noel Celis / AFP) (Photo by NOEL CELIS/AFP via Getty Images)

From extreme heatwaves and wildfires, to catastrophic flooding around the world, the climate crisis is having a devastating impact on livelihoods and nature. We must take stronger, faster action in Scotland to phase out our most polluting activities and create new, decent job opportunities in green industries.


And, amid a nature emergency, we must invest in proven practices to foster healthy ecosystems and enhance biodiversity: protecting peatlands, native woodlands and marine habitats. Addressing the two crises ‒ nature and climate as one ‒ can lead to reduced carbon emissions and increased resilience.

Additionally, Stop Climate Chaos Scotland proposed giving more attention to climate justice – helping to support those most impacted by climate change, in recognition of Scotland's responsibility for their fair share of the climate crisis.


Rich countries committed to providing $100 billion a year by 2020 to help those countries who have done the least to cause climate change to retool their economies and societies, as well as provide money to help communities adapt, survive and thrive beyond the impact of climate change already happening. That commitment is far off track, particularly on funding to help countries adapt.
A country guest house in Laach, Germany, was among many building severely damaged by floods that killed more than 200 people in western Europe this month (Picture: Christof Stache/AFP via Getty Images)

There is also a need to secure additional money to cover the loss and damage created by irreversible climate impacts on land, culture and people.

Positively, the Scottish government announced this year that it would double the budget – to £24 million over the next four years – of its world-first Climate Justice Fund which was set up in 2012 after the Paris climate talks.

One major success of the fund has been the Climate Challenge Programme Malawi which has helped 42,000 people, the majority of them women and girls, in Southern Malawi to improve their access to food, water and energy so they are better prepared for climate-related disasters.

As Cop26 approaches, the Scottish government will be working with Stop Climate Chaos Scotland to listen to experts from the Global South on issues like climate finance, adaptation, loss and damage, and just transition. The success of the Cop26 negotiations in Glasgow depends on progress on these key issues and Scotland can play a key amplification role on those issues of concern.

In November, the world’s eyes will be on Glasgow. While the UK is the official host to the summit, the Scottish government has shown with the publication of the iNDC, that they, too, have something to add to the dialogue.

But as the countries confer with each other, it will be the people of the world who have the most to say: we need action, we need more of it, and we need it now.


Written on behalf of Stop Climate Chaos Scotland by Anne Callaghan, policy officer at anti-poverty charity SCIAF, and Erica Mason, policy campaigns officer at RSPB Scotland

If you’d like to read more about what Stop Climate Chaos Scotland are calling for, go to stopclimatechaos.scot/policy, or add your voice and share why you care at climatescotland.org
India: on the frontline of climate change

Issued on: 25/07/2021 - 
Flooding is common during India's monsoon season but climate change is making the monsoon stronger, according to a report from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research INDRANIL MUKHERJEE AFP/File

New Delhi (AFP)

Swathes of India are battling deadly floods and landslides after heavy monsoon rains, just the latest example of how the vast country is on the frontline of climate change.

In the first seven months of this year alone the impoverished nation of 1.3 billion people has experienced two cyclones, a deadly glacier collapse in the Himalayas, a sweltering heatwave and killer floods.

- Melting glaciers -



In February, a ferocious flash flood hurtled down a remote Indian Himalayan valley, sweeping away homes, a hydro plant and around 200 people. Only 60 bodies have been found.

Experts believe the cause was a massive chunk of glacier -- 15 football fields long and five across -- breaking off high in the mountains.#photo1

A glaciologist who investigated the site told AFP the catastrophe was "clearly a fallout of climate change and in itself a tell-tale of our future".

In the Indian Himalayas, about 10,000 glaciers are receding at a rate of 30 to 60 metres (100 to 200 feet) per decade as global temperatures rise.

In 2013, a flash flood in the same area killed 6,000 people.

- More cyclones -


Cyclones are not a rare sight in the northern Indian Ocean but scientists say they are becoming more frequent and severe as sea temperatures rise.

In May Cyclone Tauktae claimed 155 lives in western India including dozens working on oil rigs off Mumbai. It was the fiercest storm to hit the area in several decades.

Barely a week later Yaas, with winds the equivalent of a category-two hurricane, killed at least nine people and forced the evacuation of more than 1.5 million in the east.

With waves the height of double-decker buses, hundreds of thousands lost their houses. "I have lost my home, everything," said one survivor.

- Hotter and hotter -


India's average temperature rose around 0.7 degrees Celsius (1.3 degrees Fahrenheit) between the beginning of the 20th century and 2018. It will rise another 4.4 degrees by 2100, according to a recent government report.

In early July, tens of millions of people sizzled in just the latest heatwave across northern India.

India's weather department has declared a heatwave almost every year in the last decade with temperatures sometimes touching 50 degrees Celsius (122 degrees Fahrenheit).#photo2

The Hindustan Times newspaper reported that heatwaves had claimed more than 17,000 lives in India since 1971, according to top meteorologists.

Currently just five percent of Indian households have air conditioning compared with 90 percent in the United States and 60 percent in China.

But the market is forecast to boom in the coming years, driving up energy consumption in what is already the world's third-largest carbon emitter.

- Monsoon floods -


Torrential rains have hit India's western coast in the past few days triggering landslides and a deluge of sludge, leaving more than 75 dead and dozens missing.

The hillside resort of Mahabaleshwar reportedly saw nearly 60 centimetres (23 inches) of rain in a 24-hour period, a record.

The neighbouring resort state of Goa is reeling under its worst floods in decades, its chief minister said.#photo3

Flooding and landslides are common during India's treacherous monsoon season, which also often sees poorly constructed buildings buckle after days of non-stop rain.

But climate change is making the monsoon stronger, according to a report from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research in April.

It warned of potentially severe consequences for food, farming and the economy affecting nearly a fifth of the world's population.

- Lightning -

The monsoon from June to September also brings danger from the skies. In 2019, lightning strikes killed almost 3,000 people.

Earlier this month, 76 people perished including a dozen watching a storm and taking selfies at a historic fort in Rajasthan.

But scientists say climate change may be making lightning more frequent. A recent study said strikes rose 34 percent in the past year.

And it's not just people. In May, lightning was blamed for the deaths of at least 18 elephants in Assam.

© 2021 AFP
The Tokyo Olympics could be a COVID-19 “super evolutionary event”

The Games could provide a place for variants to spread and return home with athletes.

ADAM ROGERS, WIRED.COM - 7/24/2021, 4:36 AM

Enlarge / Flag bearers Yui Susaki and Rui Hachimura of Team Japan lead their team out during the Opening Ceremony of the Tokyo 2020 Olympic Games at Olympic Stadium on July 23, 2021 in Tokyo, Japan.
Matthias Hangst | Getty Images

Ten days before the opening ceremony of the Tokyo Olympics, Kara Lawson, the coach of the United States women’s 3x3 basketball team, gave a press conference. The sport is new to the Olympics this year, and Lawson, a former WNBA player and coach at Duke University, told the dozen or so reporters participating online what she liked about it—the game is faster-paced, Lawson said, and more unpredictable than the five-on-five version. But during a global pandemic, Lawson added, the health of her players was her number one priority. “We’re obviously tested daily. I’m actually quarantined in my room right now,” Lawson said. “We’re masked all the time … a positive test at this juncture is hard for any team getting ready to go to Tokyo. We’re focused on doing our part, not just so we can have a good competition, but we definitely feel a responsibility to fellow human beings to be smart about eliminating transmission of the disease worldwide.”

Less than a week later, one of Lawson’s players—Katie Lou Samuelson, a power forward for the Seattle Storm—announced on Instagram that she had tested positive for COVID-19 and wouldn’t be able to go to Tokyo. Fast-paced, maybe, but not exactly unpredictable. As the 2020 Tokyo Games get underway, Samuelson is one of 91 people either in Tokyo for the Olympics or who were hoping to go who’ve tested positive for the disease, including US tennis player Coco Gauf, a Czech beach volleyball player, two South African soccer players, and so on.


The spirit of “Olympism” is supposed to ward off worldly concerns. The riders of the Apocalypse may stalk the globe, but they’re not allowed into an Olympic Village. War gets postponed, Famine withers in the dining hall, and Pestilence … well. The global pandemic has killed at least 4 million people and resulted in a very strange Summer Games—no cheering crowds, athletes essentially confined to quarters when they’re not going faster, higher, or stronger—all in an attempt to prevent the disease from spreading among the competitors and to the people of Japan, and to keep the Olympians from carrying new strains of the virus back to their home countries. The Olympics are one of Earth’s great symbols of international cooperation, but this year the Games are also a mass gathering in the middle of the worst pandemic in a century, where people from nearly every country on Earth will gather in a vast congregate living setting and compete in some close-contact sports, sometimes indoors. What could possibly go wr—

The story of disease is also a story of mass gatherings. In 1867, a cholera outbreak started at the Kumbh Mela in India, the world’s largest religious gathering. It spread from the banks of the Ganges to Russia and Europe. A million people died. Over the years, the Hajj pilgrimage has been the site of a bunch of respiratory disease outbreaks, including influenza and the coronaviruses that predate the one that causes COVID-19. In 2014 there were measles outbreaks at the International Dog Show in Slovenia, and at Disneyland.

But the Olympics has generally managed to avoid big infectious disease outbreaks, even when it happened during big disease scares. H1N1 influenza didn’t hurt the 2010 Winter Games in Vancouver, neither SARS nor MERS spread through London in 2012, Zika didn’t spread from Rio in 2016. Yet nevertheless, “What if people get sick at the Olympics?” is a top-three Olympic story subgenre. (The other two are “This athlete is driven to succeed for personal reasons” and “Olympic athletes have sex with each other.”)

Just one postponement

In early 2020, amid a pandemic then just beginning to swell into an exponential tsunami, the International Olympic Committee and the Tokyo organizers postponed the Games. An advisory group composed of experts from public health, travel medicine, economics, behavioral science, and even theme park design spent the gap year coming up with a plan. The person in charge was the one who was largely responsible for the successful public health measures at the London Games in 2012, a public health and mass-gathering expert named Brian McCloskey. “Essentially, the public health response to any event is the same. It’s about how you determine what the risks will be and what you do about them,” McCloskey tells me. “The difference here is the sheer scale, which we haven’t seen before.” Before the organizers closed the Games to travelers in March, they expected 20 million people to come to Tokyo. That probably wouldn’t have been great.

The Olympics are a strange beast. Even with the threat of deadly disease looming, all the stakeholders are highly incentivized to make sure the show goes on. The host country’s tourism industries stand to get a windfall, as do the media organizations covering the Games. Olympic committees are famously full of jet-setters with cozy relationships to all the businesses involved. And unlike, say, professional sports, where missing a couple games might not matter much, Olympic athletes and coaches get their shot only once every four years—so they might put up with a little looseness in infection control measures.

Still, nobody wants anyone to get sick. That advisory group determined that the basic public health measures people relied on before the arrival of Covid vaccines would still work. In fact, things like hand-washing, mask-wearing, and avoiding crowds and poorly ventilated spaces were already working well in Japan. “What we did was to layer on top of that some of the learning from the UK, where not having a test-and-trace system was a weakness,” McCloskey says.

You’ll remember this from the pandemic’s early days, when the US and Europe mostly failed at it: Test everyone for Covid, trace the contacts of the people who are positive, and isolate them to keep one person’s infection from turning into a super-spreading event. That’d be the approach in Tokyo, along with reducing the number of people in the Olympic Village, improving the ventilation systems in those apartments, and adding “additional filtration” and plexiglass shields (which probably don’t really do anything, but OK) in the common areas. And “by and large there is no intermingling between the international community and the local Japanese population,” McCloskey says. “They don’t go out in the subway in Tokyo.”

The organizers thought about requiring vaccination but ultimately decided against it. “We were fairly certain a vaccine would be available, but we were equally certain it would not be available equally around the world,” McCloskey says. “That’s against the whole spirit of doing the Games. We also didn’t want athletes competing for vaccines with health care workers and local populations.”

At a press conference just a few days before the Games were set to open, McCloskey described the system—codified for the competitors into “playbooks”—as one of multiple layers of filtration. Athletes would get tested before they left their home countries and again every day before competition. They’d follow social distancing rules, the non-pharmaceutical interventions of 2020. And if someone pinged positive, they’d get multiple kinds of tests, including a highly accurate nasopharyngeal PCR test, to see how high their viral load was and help determine the level of risk to the people they might’ve exposed. (More virus equals more bad.) Olympic staff would track their contacts, in part using forms the teams would fill out beforehand of who was close to whom. Vaccines, if athletes got them, would be a bonus layer.As for the Olympic-bound folks already testing positive, McCloskey said that didn’t constitute a failure in the system. Quite the opposite—each one represented the cutting-off of a more infectious timeline that might have been. “What we’re seeing is what we expected to see, essentially,” McCloskey told reporters in Tokyo at a press conference on July 19, a week before the opening ceremony. “If I thought all the tests we did would be negative, I wouldn’t be bothering to do the tests.”

Hey, 91 positive cases out of roughly 15,000 competitors and tens of thousands of reporters and other Olympic workers ain’t bad, right? For a few disease experts and athlete advocates, the answer is: That is, in fact, pretty bad—because of what it says about the preparations, and what might happen next.

Is a safe Olympics even possible?


At least that's what some scientists and experts have been saying. Hitoshi Oshitani, the virologist who devised Japan’s anti-Covid strategy, told The Times of London that he didn’t think it was possible to have a safe Olympics. “There are a number of countries that do not have many cases, and a number that don’t have any variants,” Oshitani told The Times. “We should not make the Olympics [an occasion] to spread the virus to these countries. There is not much risk to the US and UK, where people are vaccinated. But most countries in the world don’t have the vaccine.”

McCloskey estimates about 85 percent of people coming to Tokyo will be vaccinated. But only about 22 percent of Japanese people are. That’s among the lowest rates of all wealthy countries. Combined with Japan’s relatively low case count, that means most of the population doesn’t yet have antibodies to the virus. They’re what epidemiologists call “naive.” Which means Japan might be, as the cliché goes, a victim of its own success. “Clearly there is a high value being placed on holding these Olympics,” says Samuel Scarpino, managing director for pathogen surveillance at the Rockefeller Foundation’s Pandemic Prevention Institute. “Because certainly it’s risky to bring people together in a congregate setting inside a country with essentially no vaccination and essentially no existing immunity in the population.”

COVID-19’s asymptomatic, airborne spread means that testing has to be extremely frequent, at least once a day, to catch cases before they infect others. The strict, successful disease control measures of the US National Football League and National Basketball Association for example, used all the typical hygiene and distancing measures, plus a hardcore test-trace-isolate regimen. The NFL performed daily reverse-transcription PCR tests and gave players and staff single-purpose electronic devices that registered close contacts; a cumulative 15 minutes or more counted as a higher risk. Over time, the NFL supplemented the electronics with intense in-person interviews to determine the nature of those contacts. (Masked? Indoors? While eating?) “What the NBA did—or women’s basketball, which I advised last year—was to design and pull off a bubble. Once you’re in it, you’re not out,” says Annie Sparrow, a population health science and policy professor at Mt. Sinai Medical School. “There’s no way you can ever create a bubble at the Olympics. It just cannot be done at this scale.”

In early July, Sparrow and a bunch of other US researchers published a commentary in The New England Journal of Medicine expressing many of the same concerns Oshitani did. They went further, warning that the strategy McCloskey’s group had come up with was based on outdated information about the dynamics of the virus.

That article, in turn, echoed criticisms leveled by the World Players Association, an international group that works with athletes’ unions around the world. The WPA has argued—to little effect, having gotten no response from the IOC—that the rules consider contact on, say, the rugby pitch to be the same as contact in individual gymnastics or running track outdoors. WPA representatives criticized the shared-room situation and advice from the playbooks about opening windows once in a while for ventilation, something that might actually be impractical in Tokyo’s extreme summer heat. Also bad in the plan: allowing different kinds of masks and personal protective equipment, using phone apps for contact tracing instead of dedicated tech, and a lineup of other less-than-stellar interventions that the WPA reps said were just asking for trouble. “There’s never going to be zero risk when it comes to Covid, but there certainly could have been more mitigation put in place,” says Matthew Graham, director of legal and player relations at the WPA. “We, like the athletes we represent, hope this can be done safely, but no expense should have been spared for that.”

McCloskey, for his part, maintains that the measures his team has put in place will keep the Village, the Games, and Japan as safe as possible. “As a general principle, I think if I’m not being criticized, I’m not doing my job properly,” he says.

Starting with a single infection

If a few athletes get sick and are not able to compete—that’s sad, but it’s not an economic or epidemiologic catastrophe. But the most expensive Summer Olympics($15.4 billion!) in history with no visitors to the host city? Well, an Olympics failing to live up to the economic and development promises of its organizers wouldn’t exactly be novel, though the actual studies on this are complicated.

The catastrophe, if it happens at all, will start out small—inside a single human cell, infected by a virus. “Whenever you get many people together, there’s the opportunity for large outbreaks—not just super-spreading events, but also multiple generations of transmission, and the infections can then be passed on when people return home,” says Sarah Cobey, an epidemiologist and evolutionary biologist at the University of Chicago. “All such spread promotes not just new cases but also adaptation, including the movement of fitter variants to new populations.”

In other words, the problem isn’t merely someone infecting someone else, or even lots of someone elses. These potential Olympic infections could be like microbiological invasive species, given the means to travel to new populations where they might be even more dangerous than they were at home. COVID-19 has been charged by super-spreader events—occasions where many people get infected at once. SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, has evolved and adapted over the past 18 months, manifesting changes to its genetic code that make it easier for the virus to spread. That’s very good for a virus whose whole existential goal is to make more of itself; it’s very bad for humans, because it might make the virus more able to infect other people, either through force of numbers or being more virologically sneaky in infecting cells, or some other mechanism altogether.

A giant gathering with people from many different populations, almost certainly carrying different versions of the virus, is exactly the kind of place that makes super-spreader events and the exchange of new variants more possible. It might—emphasis on might—even make possible the development and spread of new, worse variants. “Personally, if I were in charge of the Olympics in Japan, the risk of transmission getting established would be too high for me. Maybe their assumption is, if it does spill over, they can bring it under control again without risking an epidemic,” Scarpino says. “I may not agree with that, but I think where we diverge in the cost-benefit calculations of holding the Olympics versus the spread of Covid locally in Japan is when we get into the conversation of what this might mean for the evolution of the virus itself.”

This is the worst worst-case scenario. “There are plenty of eco-evolutionary scenarios where this isn’t a traditional super-spreader event, but a ‘super-evolutionary event,’” Scarpino says, “where a critical mass of vaccinated individuals are selecting for variants that have increased transmissibility in vaccinated individuals.” All those people with differing immune statuses and different exposures to different strains of the virus could create a terrifying genetic parody of Olympism’s international cooperation: a free and open exchange of viral ideas on how to be more infectious, maybe even more deadly or more vaccine-evasive. And then it’d travel back to everyone’s home country under the cover of asymptomatic spread.

There are two extremes on the scale of probability. The best outcome anyone can hope for at this point is that with the screening program in place, only a few people will get infected or ill. A few Olympic stories will end badly. That’s already happening—athletes and the people who work with them have been denied a chance to compete in Tokyo because testing shows they’re infected. And on the far side of the scale is a super-evolutionary event that allows the development of an even more potent form of the virus and then puts it on hundreds of jet planes headed to every corner of the planet. For everyone wondering what the most likely outcome is, it’s like the Olympics, except only in the most terrifying way possible: It’s unpredictable.

This story originally appeared on wired.com.
Coffee froths to new highs as Brazil frost hits crops

Issued on: 25/07/2021 -
Arabica coffee soared to its highest level since 2014
 CHAIDEER MAHYUDDIN AFP/File

London (AFP)

Coffee prices surged this week to multi-year peaks, extending stellar gains this year after frost damaged crops in the world's biggest producer Brazil.

The futures price for arabica coffee, one of the South American nation's top commodity exports, soared Friday to just over $2 a pound, the highest level since 2014.

The commodity has rocketed by a blistering 60 percent since January.

Lower quality robusta coffee, mainly grown in Asia, leapt to an October 2017 peak of $1,993 per tonne, capping a near 40-percent gain so far this year.

"Several reasons explain the astronomical gains for coffee prices," Rabobank analyst Carlos Mera told AFP, citing mainly the devastating weather conditions in Brazil.

Mera also blamed soaring transportation costs and political unrest in number-three producer, Colombia.

Brazil suffered a historic drought earlier this year.

That was followed by damaging frosts this week at key plantations in Minas Gerais -- a southeastern inland state that produces 70 percent of the nation's arabica beans.

Sub-zero temperatures have "sparked defoliation of crops and even kill the youngest plants" that are crucial for future harvests, Mera said.

Arabica has also been heavily impacted because the crop has a biennial plant cycle, whereby low-yield production one year is followed by bumper output the following year.

- 'Long price crisis'
-

The market rallied "on freezing temperatures in Brazil growing areas last night", added Price Futures Group analyst Jack Scoville on Friday.

"Freezing temperatures were reported in much of Minas Gerais and Parana and also in Sao Paulo.

"It is not yet known how extensive the damage was but... a significant part of the cop got hurt.

"It is flowering time for the next crop and the flowers were frozen and will drop off the trees," he added, noting, however, that the weather was now turning warmer.

At the same time, world coffee demand is picking up this year as global economies reopen from the deadly coronavirus turmoil.

That has stimulated demand for arabica which tends to be used in coffee shops and restaurants, unlike the lower grade robusta favoured for making instant coffee granules.

While conditions are ripe for high prices, commodity economist Philippe Chalmin explained that the cost of coffee has been particularly low in recent years, pointing out that a pound of arabica cost more than $3 in May 2011.

"Coffee producers have experienced a very long price crisis," Valeria Rodriguez, Head of Advocacy & Public Engagement at the fair trade association Max Havelaar, told AFP.

"In the last four or five years, most of them have been working at a loss," she told AFP.

"If the crop is smaller, it means that there are coffee producers somewhere in Brazil who will have no coffee to sell, and therefore no income," she warned.

- Moderate effect for consumers -

The rising prices are being passed on to consumers, "but slowly," according to Mera.

"Roasters use the futures market to hedge themselves against short price increases, so it usually takes three to nine months to see the effects at retail level," he explained.

"Even then, the increases at retail level are much more moderate," he said with other components such as transport, packaging and marketing contributing to the retail price.

"Ground coffee is sold on average at 15 euros per kilo and coffee in pods at 45 euros per kilo, or even more," said Rodriguez.

This is far removed from the current price of arabica coffee, which is less than four euros per kilo.

In France, the price of coffee sold in supermarkets has changed very little in recent months and remains close to its 2015 reference price, according to data shared by the national statistics agency.

The current rise in coffee prices is also part of a wider context of inflation in the cost of raw materials, whether agricultural or industrial -- with copper and tin both breaking records in recent weeks.

© 2021 AFP
Greece's first underwater museum opens ancient world to dive tourists


Issued on: 25/07/2021 -
Thousands of amphore mark the wreckage of an ancient Greek vessel and now the country's first underwater museum WILL VASSILOPOULOS AFP

Alónnisos (Greece) (AFP)

Emerging from the crystal-clear turquoise waters of the Aegean Sea, Hans-Juergen Fercher has just returned from his fourth dive to where mounds of 2,500-year-old wine pots mark the site of an ancient shipwreck -- and Greece's first underwater museum.

"This is a combination of diving and archaeological diving. It's diving into history," says the 48-year-old psychiatrist after pulling himself onto the deck of the Triton dive boat.

“It makes it special and unique."

The museum beneath the waves at Peristera, a rocky outcrop off the island of Alonissos, opened in 2020, though the site has been largely mothballed until now due to Covid-19 restrictions.

As Greece opens up its vital tourism industry, the site offers an example of a new and more sustainable source of revenue.

Divers like Fercher and Danish wine-cellar maker, Lisette Fredelund, are willing to pay 95 euros ($110) a dive -- about 50 percent more than the cost of a regular recreational scuba outing -- for a guided tour of a site once the preserve of professional archaeologists.

"It was just amazing," said Fredelund. "I was just, while we were down there, trying to imagine what it had been like being on a vessel transporting wine."

- More to come -

More wrecks have been discovered in the area -- the middle of the country's largest marine reserve -- holding out the prospect that more such museums will open.

Greece has made diving part of its focus to attract visitors since legislation passed in 2020 making it possible to access such sites, Tourism Minister Harry Theoharis told AFP.#photo1

"This is a type of tourism that attracts people all year round, a special audience that pays generously to dive," he said, adding that 10 new diving parks are ready to be licensed under the process provided for by the legislation.

On board the Triton, a group of six more visitors don their scuba gear and plunge into the sea, closely following their guide. About 300 people have paid to visit the wreck since the museum opened, according to Alonissos Mayor Petros Vafinis.

Vafinis -- himself an avid scuba diver -- joined a group of tourists as they one by one launched themselves off the rear deck of the Triton into the sea.

All visitors must first undergo a briefing about the site and the strict rules -- such as keeping at least two metres (about six feet) away from the artifacts.

- High expectations -

After a short swim from the boat, the tour guide leads the group down through changing layers of light and increasing cold to the sea bed almost 30 metres below.

"My expectations were really high from the briefing, and it fulfilled everything," said George Giasemidis, a Greek tourist who visited the area specifically to see the wreck.#photo2

Due to the depth and technical difficulty of the descent, only qualified divers are allowed to visit the wreck of a ship that was delivering wine and other goods when it foundered, around the fifth century BC.

More than 4,000 two-handled amphorae are anchored in the sand, their positions marking out the outline of the wooden vessel, the remains of which have been washed away over time.

"We want to propose another kind of tourism to the people who come. I don’t want intensive tourism we can find anywhere else," Vafinis said.

"It goes to put Alonissos on the world diving map, to have like an underwater safari of ancient wrecks," said Kostas Efstathiou, co-owner of the Triton diving centre.

© 2021 AFP