Algeria and Tunisia wildfires reinforce IPCC findings on Africa

A damaging heat wave is sweeping across North Africa in the wake of the release of the IPCC findings on climate change. Some experts in Africa say the panel hit the right tone and the onus to act is on the continent too.



The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report outlines the severity of the global climate crisis. According to the UN body, the crisis poses not only a policy problem but a global political challenge.

Some analysts have been quick to question the difference between the latest IPCC assessment and those over three decades. But experts in Africa see a distinct change of tone as what used to be the reality for the continent now becomes a global reality.

Europe and the US are dealing with extreme climatic conditions and this has generated a new degree of urgency, said Oladosu Adenike, a Nigerian climate activist, eco-feminist and the initiator of the Fridays for Future movement in Nigeria.

"With extreme weather everywhere, climate change is now a global reality… in Africa, climate change is no longer a threat but a reality,” she told DW.

"Many are still in denial. Some people tried to criticize the whole thing but now these reports have made it clear and even clearer that it is now a reality in Africa, Europe, Asia and every part of the world."

Watch video02:59 Greece wildfires: Devastation on Evia island

No time

Dickens Kamugisha, the CEO of the Africa Institute for Energy Governance (AFIEGO) says the latest IPCC report has a sense of urgency.

"This report is unique in the way it is presented because it clearly shows that we no longer have any time to wait before we change. It is showing that each and every one must commit if we are to save this world," Kamugisha told DW.

"So, if you compare this report with previous reports, in a way this report is very precise that we are now almost beyond the limit.”

Previous IPCC reports had clearly articulated the dangers of climate change, with the commitments to act set for some time in the future.

Watch video02:05 IPCC report: Climate crisis 'code red' for humanity

Do more

The argument has been that developing countries contribute very little to climate change and environmental degradation and the onus should therefore be on the West to take decisive action. Experts are now increasingly challenging that perspective and arguing that Africa needs to act because the continent is feeling climate change the most.

"We have got to redouble our own efforts to build resilience, to invest in inclusive, resilient cities," said Wanjira Mathai, the vice-president and regional director for Africa at the World Resource Institute.

"And that's really important even as we put pressure on developed countries and some of the big emitters in the globe that have been responsible in many ways for this sort of doomsday scenario we are facing."

That would mean that African countries take the intiative and lead with practical solutions. Are African leaders ready to take action?

"We can take that lead if we really want to. If Africa can take the lead, I assure you that other countries will be serious. They will know that we are ready for business but not business as usual,” Oladosu Adenike, the Nigerian eco-feminist explained.

The AFIEGO CEO Dickens Kamugisha has a similiar view and said he believes the time is past for African nations to be making excuses.

"It is very true that Africa contributes about 3% of the greenhouse gases that are causing climate change. I think we should not use it as an excuse that we are contributing little and end up destroying the forests, wetlands and all the nature that is supposed to help us at least reduce the gases that are going to the sky," Kamugisha told DW.

Watch video03:43 Time for action on Africa's Great Green Wall

Pay up

A report by the NGO Oxfam states that many recent climate commitments from companies have not been backed by detailed plans and are likely going to rely on land-based carbon offset efforts. Some experts have warned that this would create the conditions for land grabs.

Furthermore, pledges from oil and gas companies such as BP, Eni, Shell, and Total Energies would require large-scale foresting to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

"Why do we have to wait for 2030 or 2050 before we can act or get to climate neutrality? Not listening or not taking action is a crime against humanity,” Adenike said.

The argument that African nations need to do more in no way suggests that the biggest contributors to climate change should be absolved of responsibility, say experts.

Wanjira Mathai of the World Resource Institute is of the view that more needs to be done to ensure that those who have either caused or benefited from the climate crisis, pay more.

"We absolutely have to put pressure on those countries and those economies that have benefited from this emission with heavy industrialization to pay up and to support with the commitments that were made in the Paris Agreement. There was a very clear commitment to $100 billion a year and we are 10 years in, and that money has not been seen at that scale," Mathai said. "We've got to get serious about climate finance."

Wanjira Mathai also chairs of the Wangari Maathai Foundation and previously chaired the Green Belt Movement in Kenya.

Act now

The overriding sentiment among experts is that African countries need to start taking concrete action on climate change and environmental degradation, according to Mathai.

"In Nairobi today, we have developments that are going on that are really concerning. We have entire walkways being ploughed of the trees that exist, trees that have been standing there for four decades. And instead of us thinking through how we are going to plan around them, plan for pedestrian walkways that are inclusive of green vegetation, we are cutting them down. That has got to change,” Mathai told DW.

This position is supported by others who say the latest IPCC assessment is a call for everyone including Africans to take action.

"The report clearly calls upon everyone in the world including developed countries to ensure that they stop the challenges of climate change," says Dickens Kamugisha.

"Here in Uganda, you have really huge projects of oil –1,400 metres of pipeline. And the project will be producing around 102 million metric tons of carbon. We've seen in Nigeria, Chad, Angola, companies just continue the projects – however risky they are – and the unfortunate thing is that these projects do not benefit those communities.”

A new project will see oill from Uganda pumped to Tanzania after the first extraction planned for 2025

The urgency of the climate crisis for Africa and the rest of the world is not only because of the effects on weather patterns, according to IPPC and Africa's experts agree.

"They have been seeing how it's fueling refugee crises, migration, insecurity and other kinds of crises,” Oladosu Adenike explained.

In 2007, the UN attributed the Darfur conflict in Sudan to climate change. Some two years later, the then US president Barack Obama highlighted that "there is little scientific dispute that if we do nothing, we will face more drought, more famine, more mass displacement – all of which will fuel more conflict for decades."

What is the future for fossil fuel investments?

With the IPCC's latest report warning that time is running out to avoid climate catastrophe, the world's reliance on fossil fuels is increasingly untenable. Investors are starting to look for green alternatives.

The latest IPCC report presented 'undisputed' evidence that carbon pollution is causing profound changes to our climate


Fossil fuels have built the world as we know it today, powering our global economy and generating most of the world's electricity. But over the last 170 years, humans have burned through so much oil, gas and coal that the earth's average temperature is now warmer than at any point in the past 125,000 years.

And we're already suffering the consequences, according to the latest assessment from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The long-awaited report starkly presented "undisputed" evidence that carbon pollution and greenhouse gases from human activity are causing profound changes to our world: more extreme heat waves and fires, increased rainfall and floods, longer droughts and a shrinking Arctic.

Watch video 02:05 Climate crisis 'code red' for humanity

Energy systems need to adapt

The IPCC report didn't directly mention fossil fuels, but that hasn't stopped other leading organizations from calling them out. Earlier this year, G7 leaders agreed to start phasing out fossil fuel financing overseas and end support for unabated coal power. And in May, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published a landmark report that called for a complete stop on new investments in oil, gas and coal supply after this year — despite the growing number of countries making net-zero emissions pledges for the coming decades.

"This gap between rhetoric and action needs to close if we are to have a fighting chance of reaching net zero by 2050," said Fatih Birol, IEA executive director. "Doing so requires nothing short of a total transformation of the energy systems that underpin our economies."

Part of that transformation will come from investors seeking to protect the future value of their assets. Sarah Brown, an electricity transition analyst at UK-based energy think tank Ember, told DW that investors and insurers are increasingly facing risk — from extreme weather events, the energy transition or changing regulations.

"The recent findings of the IEA and IPCC reports should not have come as a surprise, and there are multiple existing national policies and global commitments that mean investment in new fossil fuel assets does not make economic sense and has not for quite some time," she said.

Brown highlighted several planned coal power plant projects across Europe which have been canceled just in the last few months, including in Serbia, Bosnia-Herzegovina and Turkey. "Utilities, financial institutions, engineering companies and governments are all seeing there is no future for coal-fired electricity generation," she said.
'Fossil fuels aren't going to disappear overnight'

But Samantha Gross, director of the Energy Security and Climate Initiative at the US research group Brookings Institution, doesn't think investors will be so quick to drop fossil fuels. She pointed out that despite advances in renewable energy, the world still hasn't found a reliable substitute for oil and natural gas, which she has called the "lifeblood of the modern economy."

"We're definitely seeing pressure from a lot of different camps to move away from fossil fuel investments," she told DW. "And I don't disagree with the sentiment. The challenge will be that fossil fuels aren't going to disappear overnight."

Gross said oil and gas have more energy per weight than other fuel sources, making them crucial for industrial processes that need very high heat, or for sectors like aviation, shipping and long-haul trucking, where electric vehicles aren't yet up to the task. Not to mention the fact that more than three-quarters of the world's electricity is still produced by fossil fuels, according to the latest analysis by oil giant BP.

"You're not going to see a sudden halt in all investments in fossil fuels. But I think what you'll see is that more expensive and more risky investments will start to go away first. And I think that process is certainly beginning," said Gross.

She believes the industry is nearing a "tipping point" on carbon-intensive processes like oil sands development or fracking, with some investors now shifting instead to inexpensive renewables with good rates of return.

"[This is] something that investors are doing because there's money to be made in it. That's how things really get done. Seems a little crass, but it's true," she said.
Climate changes at Exxon, Chevron

While the trend to make greener investments has been more visible in Europe, with retirement funds in countries like the UK, Sweden and Norway taking steps to limit climate-related exposure, there's been some movement in the US as well — and not just with pensions.

On May 26, 61% of Chevron shareholders backed a proposal asking the oil company to cut its total greenhouse gas emissions. That same day, small activist hedge fund Engine No. 1 took three seats on the board of Exxon Mobil after a monthslong campaign that stressed the oil giant's fossil fuel focus represented an "existential risk."


In May, a Dutch court ordered Shell to reduce its carbon emissions by 45% by 2030 from 2019 levels

Speaking with investors in July, CEO Darren Woods said Exxon Mobil was aiming to play "a key role in the energy transition while continuing to grow shareholder value," highlighting developing markets for carbon capture and storage, hydrogen and biofuels. However, Woods — who had campaigned against Engine No. 1 — warned they shouldn't expect "huge shifts in strategy."

Nevertheless, said Gross, "it's quite stunning what they were able to do," underlining the significance that it was the investors who had pushed for change, rather than external pressure. "Nothing against NGOs, but when the investors start talking, they listen."

Fight to stay relevant

But some companies are still fighting to delay the inevitable fossil fuel phaseout and profit losses. German utilities RWE and Uniper, for example, announced in April their intention to sue the Dutch government over its plan to end coal-fired power generation by 2030, citing billions in damages.

Fossil fuel messaging is also playing its part. InfluenceMap, a think tank which studies how corporate lobbying impacts climate policy, revealed in 2019 that the five largest publicly traded oil and gas companies — Exxon Mobil, Royal Dutch Shell, Chevron, BP and Total — have spent more than $1 billion (€853 million) to campaign against climate policies or buy misleading ads since the 2015 Paris Agreement. The aim is to promote oil and gas as part of the solution to the climate crisis, along with new technologies, to keep them in the energy mix as long as possible.

"Many big energy companies look to be very focused on transition pathways that only modestly adapt their current business models, relying heavily on carbon capture and storage [CCS] to mitigate their emissions or produce blue hydrogen from natural gas," said Brown, adding that these approaches also have significant climate and financial risks.

Watch video 08:07 Can carbon capture actually work? 

IF YOU HAVE TO ASK  YOU KNOW THE ANWSER IS NO 

While acknowledging the potential for greenwashing, Gross said companies using these transitional technologies could potentially have skills that would help further develop renewable energy like geothermal power or offshore wind farms.

"Certainly, some companies understand that this is the way the future is going. They want to continue to be relevant in the energy industry, and so they're focusing on how they can be relevant in an industry that has a different shape than the one we have now," said Gross. "They understand which way the wind is blowing and are trying to move accordingly."

IN PICTURES: DEADLY EXTREME WEATHER SHOCKS THE WORLD

Fierce flash floods in Europe

Unprecedented flooding — caused by two months' worth of rainfall in two days — has resulted in devastating damage in western Europe, leaving at least 209 people dead in Germany and Belgium. Narrow valley streams swelled into raging floods in the space of hours, wiping out centuries-old communities. Rebuilding the ruined homes, businesses and infrastructure is expected to cost billions of euros.

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Is carbon capture and utilization a lifeline for oil and gas? 

OF COURSE IT IS

The 2050 climate neutrality goals require the right technologies.

The current round of post-pandemic investment is decisive for a successful strategy. 

What role will carbon capture and utilization play in this, if any?


German utility RWE has been involved in research on how best to store CO2 underground

As the world gets serious about the 2050 climate neutrality target, technology deployment is speeding up. Amongst the emissions-reducing measures available today, the International Energy Agency (IEA) expects carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) to play critical roles.

This 50-year old technology involves capturing carbon dioxide (CO2), which can be used to create products (utilization) or reinjected into the ground (storage), normally in depleted oil and gas fields. FIFTY YEARS OF THEORY NOT PRACTICE

Opposition to this technology comes from environmental groups, which see CCUS as an instrument for the hydrocarbon industry to remain in business.

"Every chunk of money spent on artificially supporting the toxic technology of the past should instead be spent on an equitable transition to a brighter future," Philip Wheeler, Network Developer at Food & Water Europe, told DW. "Polluters want to keep us all addicted to their destructive fuels, and CCS [carbon capture and storage] is a mask they use to disguise the continuing destruction."

CCUS technologies are therefore a politically sensitive topic.

"The current German government and political parties seem to agree it is better to avoid a CCS debate, at least prior to the federal election. For example, the new Climate Protection Act certainly does imply the use of CCS in industrial sectors like the cement industry, but it is not explicitly mentioned," Oliver Geden, head of the EU/Europe Research Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP), commented.

Watch video02:18 Explainer: How to store CO2

The state of affairs

Geden explained that there was currently no alternative to CCUS for near-zero cement production, adding that CCUS technologies could come in handy also in the steel and hydrogen sectors. Hydrogen from renewables could not be enough to create a market in the medium term, and hydrogen derived from gas (grey hydrogen) would need CCUS to be considered environmentally friendly.

Alongside the current focus on hydrogen, the CCUS momentum is now growing, after years of declining investments. "Currently, there are a total of 66 commercial CCS facilities in various stages of development globally. We expect that number to rise significantly in the next year," said Jeff Erikson, general manager of Client Engagement at the Global CCS Institute.

While Japan's showcase project on Hokkaido Island is a reference point, several other projects are about to start operations. Two pilot projects in the UK aim to create the world's first net-zero industrial cluster by 2040. The world's largest facility capturing CO2 directly from the air should start operating in 2024 in the United States while Northern Lights will offer European companies the opportunity to store their CO2 emissions under the Norwegian seabed from 2024.

Northern Lights, an independent joint venture owned by Equinor, Shell and TotalEnergies, is expected to cost €2.5 billion ($2.9 billion) over the next ten years. "The Norwegian State will cover two-thirds of the costs," Kim Bye Bruun, Northern Lights' Communications & Government Relations director, told DW.

Bruun said Northern Lights had signed 12 memoranda of understanding with industrial emitters. "We hope to be able to sign our first contract within the next year."

In Norway, public funding is not much of a red flag because of the country's long history of hydrocarbon production.

Similarly, the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands and Australia are currently pouring funds into stimulating CCUS development. Depleted fields could thus turn into assets.

Watch video26:06 Beneath the waves: Norway's carbon storage projects

Is carbon capture really needed?

Studies suggest that CCUS technologies are the most cost-effective solution under certain conditions.

"Replacing fossil fuels is the cheapest option for 75%-80% of fossil CO2 sources, and then the cost of replacement goes through the roof. For many of these ‘final 25%' uses, it will make much more sense to dispose CO2 than avoid generating it in the first place," said Myles Allen, head of the Climate Dynamics group at the University of Oxford's Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics Department.

To tackle the "reasonable opposition" from the environmental movement, Allen suggested shifting the financial burden of CCUS investments to the oil and gas industry.

The Oxford professor explained that postponing CCUS plans would be a mistake. "It is a great idea to sequester carbon in reforestation and ecosystem restoration, but by mid-century it is quite likely that we will need all the nature-based solutions capacity we have just to compensate for the impact of past emissions, with nothing left to compensate for ongoing fossil fuel use," he explained. "That's because, as the world warms, the biosphere releases the CO2 we have already stored in it."

David Reiner, senior lecturer in technology policy at Cambridge, wants a broader debate as soon as possible. "Decarbonization is going to be a slow and difficult process."

Any mistake made with these technologies might further strengthen public opposition.

"Given that CCS is fairly novel in many people's minds, the first projects could have an oversized impact on public perception," Reiner told DW, adding that tangible, well-planned CCS facilities in the right geological conditions (offshore) will help change public opinion.

Pakistan: Why liberal Pashtuns are supporting the Afghan government

The Afghan Taliban enjoy significant support in Pakistan's northwestern region, but progressive Pashtuns are wary of their potential return to power in Afghanistan. They are now rooting for Afghan President Ashraf Ghani.

Pakistani authorities accuse liberal Pashtun groups of destabilizing the country at Afghanistan's behest

It is generally believed that most people in Pakistan's northwestern areas support the Taliban because of their own inclination toward Islamism, but the reality is somewhat different. It is true that the Islamist group is liked by many in the region, but the number of people who oppose the Taliban and the Pakistani state's alleged support to the outfit has also increased manifold in the past two decades.

Most of these ethnic Pashtuns are wary of a never-ending war in their region and blame both the Taliban and Islamabad for the devastation in their areas.

As the Taliban are gaining strength in Afghanistan, liberal Pashtuns fear it is just a matter of time before Islamists make a comeback in Pakistan's northwestern areas, too.

There are already reports of Pakistani citizens holding Taliban flags and chanting Islamist slogans at rallies in areas close to the Afghan border. Islamic clerics in various parts of the country are also soliciting support for the Afghan Taliban and calling for donations.

This comes amid rapid Taliban advances in Afghanistan ahead of the complete withdrawal of NATO troops by September.

 

Opposition to the Taliban

Progressive Pashtuns recently held a convention in Charsadda, a town in Pakistan's northwestern Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, to discuss the deteriorating security situation in Afghanistan.

They denounced the Taliban's assaults on Afghan forces.

They also condemned the United States' Doha deal with the Taliban , saying it practically legitimized the militant group.

The convention, which was composed of leading Pashtun nationalist parties, intellectuals, academics and left-leaning political workers, called for an immediate cease-fire across Afghanistan to pave the way for peace talks.

The Pashtun Tahafuz Movement (PTM), an anti-war group, has also held massive rallies in several parts of the province in the past few weeks. The PTM has condemned the Taliban and expressed its support for the Afghan government.
Support for Ashraf Ghani

Said Alam Mehsud, a PTM leader, believes that the Pashtuns in Afghanistan and Pakistan would suffer immensely if the Taliban managed to take over Kabul. "We support President Ashraf Ghani's government because it is legitimate. The Taliban are Pakistani mercenaries who want to topple an internationally recognized government," he told DW.

"The Taliban destroy schools, stop women from working, hand down inhuman punishments and kill innocent civilians. How can we support them?" he said.

On the contrary, Ghani's government, according to Mehsud, carried out several development projects in Afghanistan. The human rights situation has also improved under his administration, he added.

Bushra Gohar, a Pashtun politician and former lawmaker, agrees with Mehsud. "The PTM and other Pashtun groups are supporting Ghani because our people don't want to see the return of the Taliban's barbaric rule," she told DW.

PAKISTAN: HOW ISLAMIST MILITANCY WRECKED A TRIBAL WOMAN'S LIFE

A hard life

Life is hard for Pakistan's tribal women. For Baswaliha, a 55-year-old widow, life became even more painful after she lost her son in 2009, and her husband in 2010 — both in terrorist attacks. Baswaliha lives in Galanai, a town in the tribal Mohmand district that shares a border with Afghanistan. The area was hit hard by the Taliban insurgency following the 2001 US invasion of Afghanistan.   1234567

She said that, despite Taliban advances, Afghans are revolting against Islamists. "We see an uprising against the Taliban in Afghanistan. People are taking to the streets to show support to their government and the security forces."

Samina Afridi, a Peshawar-based political analyst, says Pashtuns on both sides of the Afghanistan-Pakistan border want education, human rights and democracy, but the Taliban are against that.

The 'Taliban project'

Pakistani authorities have long accused liberal Pashtun groups, including the PTM, of destabilizing the country at Afghanistan's behest.

The PTM has gained considerable strength in the past four years, drawing tens of thousands of people to its protest rallies. Its supporters are critical of the war on terror, which they say has ravaged Pashtun areas in both Afghanistan and Pakistan.

Sarfraz Khan, the former head of the Area Study Center at the University of Peshawar, believes that if Ghani's government is toppled in Afghanistan, the PTM leadership in Pakistan will be targeted by both Islamists and Pakistani authorities.

Experts say the consequences of targeting progressive Pashtuns could be catastrophic for the northwestern region. Khan says these groups, which have so far been nonviolent, could take up arms.

Former lawmaker and activist Gohar says Islamabad needs to change its policy toward the Afghan conflict by ending its "proxy war" and the "Taliban project."

"The UN must make sure that the Taliban's Doha office and their sanctuaries in Pakistan and elsewhere be immediately closed and that it imposes sanctions on the Taliban leaders. They should also be tried for war crimes. Sanctions should also be imposed on countries that are aiding and abetting the Taliban," she said, adding that the "Afghan genocide" must stop now.

OSIRIS-REx helps scientists model the orbit of hazardous asteroid Bennu

NASA researchers say data from OSIRIS-REx, pictured in an artist's rendering of the spacecraft preparing to touch down on the asteroid Bennu, has allowed the agency to improve its knowledge the asteroid's trajectory. File photo by NASA/Goddard/University of Arizona

Aug. 11 (UPI) -- The half-a-kilometer-wide asteroid Bennu is already one of the most well-studied asteroids prior to the OSIRIS-REx mission.

By ysing positional data collected over the course of the two-year sample return mission, however, scientists were able to improve their knowledge of Bennu's trajectory by a factor of 20, NASA scientists said at a press briefing.

"The OSIRIS-REx mission collected positional data for Bennu to a level never captured before on any asteroid," Lindley Johnson, planetary defense officer at NASA's Planetary Defense Coordination Office at NASA Headquarters, said during the briefing on Wednesday.

The OSIRIS-REx mission's primary scientific objective was to collect and return rock samples from the surface of Bennu.

But because asteroids conducive to sample-return missions tend to have Earth-like orbits -- making them potentially hazardous objects -- scientists used the OSIRIS-REx mission as an opportunity to collect vital information about the asteroid's trajectory.

Before, during and after OSIRIS-REx's trip around Bennu, NASA continuously pinged the spacecraft with radio signals.

By measuring the time those signals took to reach the spacecraft and then bounce back, scientists were able to precisely measure the its position in relation to Earth.

RELATED  OSIRIS-REx successfully stows sample of asteroid Bennu

In addition, OSIRIS-REx used its many instruments to map and measure the asteroid from a multitude of vantages as it bobbed and weaved its way around Bennu, swooping down for closeups of various nooks and crannies and ascending for wide-angle views of the entire rubble pile.

"The trajectory of the spacecraft was really amazing, I like to compare it to a hummingbird," said Dante Lauretta, study co-author and OSIRIS-REx principal investigator at the University of Arizona.

The plethora of data collected over the course of two years allowed scientists to constrain the position of Bennu in relationship to the spacecraft.

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In addition to acquiring loads of positional data, researchers were also able to more precisely characterize the impacts of solar radiation on Bennu.

"After a lot of fancy modeling, we have a much, much better model for the trajectory of Bennu," Davide Farnocchia, scientist with the Center for Near Earth Object Studies at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Southern California.

Farnocchia is the lead author of a new paper on the trajectory of Bennu and the risk it poses to planet Earth.

Currently, scientists peg the odds of Bennu striking Earth between now and 2300 at about 1 in 1,750, or 0.057%.

According to Johnson, If Bennu were to strike the Eastern Seaboard, the devastation would stretch up and down the coast.

"But we should remember that the risk carried by Bennu is smaller than the risk coming from undiscovered objects of a similar size," Farnocchia said

There is still uncertainty about Bennu's future orbit. That's because an asteroid's trajectory can be altered by what are called gravitational keyholes.

If Bennu passes by another planetary object at just the right moment, a gravitational push or pull might alter the asteroid's trajectory enough to put it on a collision course with Earth.

By constraining Bennu's trajectory, researchers were able to rule out dozens of potential gravitational keyholes, but several still pose a small but real threat.

It may be decades before scientists can be certain whether Bennu will hit one of those keyholes or not, the scientists caution.

In total, Farnocchia and his colleagues accounted for 343 solar system objects that could potentially perturb the trajectory of Bennu in their model.

"Right now the greatest source of uncertainty is related to the mass of all the other asteroids that we've including in the model," he said.

As NASA and the scientists at the Planetary Defense Coordination Office continue to search for new and potentially hazardous objects, the space agency can have confidence that sample return missions provide vital information for gauging the collision risk posed by a target asteroid.

"OSIRIS-REx has been a pathfinder mission and it can be used to inform future missions to newly discovered hazardous asteroids," Johnson said.

The hydrogen economy needs a 10-year plan, researchers argue




Researchers suggest in a new commentary that a clean hydrogen economy is doable, which could include hydrogen-powered vehicles like the one former U.S. Secretary of Energy Spencer Abraham is pictured checking out, but a game plan is needed to make it happen. File Photo by Roger L. Wollenberg/UPI | License Photo

Aug. 11 (UPI) -- Energy researchers insist the green economy needs hydrogen, and according to a paper published Wednesday in the journal Joule, the hydrogen economy needs a 10-year plan.

The paper, a scientific commentary, lays out the necessities for a sustainable hydrogen economy, including development details related to infrastructure, transport, storage and use, as well as production goals and benchmarks for economic viability.

"An H2 economy already exists, but it involves lots of greenhouse gas emissions," commentary lead author Arun Majumdar said in a press release.

Roughly 70 million metric tons of hydrogen are produced globally each year, but U.S. producers only account for about one-seventh of that total.

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The vast majority of that hydrogen is used to make fertilizer and petrochemicals, and almost all of it is accompanied by significant CO2 emissions. This is called "gray" H2.

"Almost all of it is based on H2 from methane. A clean H2 economy does not exist today," Majumdar, co-director of the Precourt Institute for Energy at Stanford University.

Efforts to end the economy's reliance on fossil fuels have mostly focused on the adoption of solar and wind energy.

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But even after the planet's electrical grids are entirely supplied by green power, energy experts insist an eco-friendly fuel will be needed for industrial heat, long-haul heavy transportation and long-duration energy storage.

Many energy researchers and policy makers are confident that hydrogen can be that fuel.

Some researchers contend the best way to jumpstart a hydrogen economy is to invest in "blue H2," which involves the capture and use of CO2 emissions to synthesize H2. Unfortunately, blue H2 production costs 50 percent more than gray H2.

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"To make blue H2 a viable option, research and development is needed to reduce CO2 capture costs and further improve capture completeness," researchers write in the commentary.

The cleanest form of H2 is "green H2," which involves the use of electricity and electrolyzers to split water.

Green H2 production doesn't yield greenhouse gas emissions, but it costs $4 to $6 per kilogram. The researchers suggest production costs could be halved as the price of green energy drops.

"Turquoise H2" is produced via methane pyrolysis, or methane cracking, which involves the separation of solid carbon from natural gas.

The economic value of solid carbon can help offset production costs, but the demand for solid carbon is currently insufficient to make turquoise H2 economically viable.

To make turquoise H2 a reality, policy makers will need to spearhead efforts to develop new markets for its use.

Regardless of how H2 is produced, makers will need to approach $1 per kilogram in order to build an economically viable hydrogen economy. An economically viable hydrogen economy will also require pipelines, as well as storage and distribution facilities.

"Developing and siting new pipeline infrastructure is generally expensive and involves challenges of social acceptance," researchers write.

"Therefore, it is important to explore alternative approaches for a hydrogen economy that does not require a new H2 pipeline infrastructure," they write.

According to the commentary's authors, the U.S. Geological Survey should be called upon to conduct a national survey of suitable underground hydrogen storage locations.

Portland could hit 104 amid scorching heat wave

HEAT DOME SPREADS OVER CANADA TOO

Mary Gilbert, AccuWeather, Accuweather.com

Aug. 11 (UPI) -- In what has become the summer of high-temperature woes, another harsh heat wave is on its way to the Northwest and states are doing all they can to prepare.

On Tuesday, Oregon Gov. Kate Brown declared a state of emergency ahead of the impending heat, urging residents to take proactive steps and make a game plan to keep cool. Such measures include preparing hydration, visiting one of the dozens of cooling centers across the state and checking in on friends and family.

The northwestern United States has undergone a record-shattering, deadly heat wave and season of destructive fire activity this summer. While many residents are looking for extended relief, AccuWeather forecasters warn that more bad news is on the way for the region.

A change in the overall weather pattern will allow temperatures to skyrocket across the northwestern U.S. and largely cut off chances for much-needed rainfall

"Yet another stretch of record-challenging high temperatures is in store for some across the Northwest this week as an expansive dome of high pressure settles over the region," AccuWeather meteorologist Brandon Buckingham said.

Excessive heat watches and warnings went into effect across parts of Oregon and Washington on Tuesday, set to last into Wednesday. Seattle is expected to be under an excessive heat warning from 12 p.m. PDT Wednesday to 7 p.m. PDT Saturday, while an excessive heat warning has been issued for Portland, Ore., from 12 p.m. Wednesday until 10 p.m. Saturday.

Temperatures are forecast to peak at 104 on Thursday in Portland, which would tie the previous daily record of last set in 1994. In Seattle, while highs are forecast to fall just short of the century mark, a temperature of 98 is predicted on Friday, which would top the previous daily record of 92 from 2002.

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Throughout the Northwest, temperatures are forecast to reach 15-25 degrees Fahrenheit above average into this weekend, worsening the already intense drought across the region, according to AccuWeather meteorologist Jessica Storm.

As of early August, about 63% of the West as a whole is in the midst of extreme to exceptional drought. Exceptional drought is the most extreme category of drought set forth by the U.S. Drought Monitor.

When the soil is bone-dry, as it is in much of the region, all of the sun's energy goes into heating the ground. This in turn often leads to temperatures topping out at levels that are higher than normal

Typical high temperatures for early to mid-August in the Northwest range from the upper 70s to low 80s for places like Seattle and Portland, to middle 80s to low 90s for inland areas.

Thursday and Friday will likely be the hottest days of the heat wave for much of the region. It's the late week period where temperatures in the 100s will be most prevalent for parts of the Northwest.

"Although temperatures will not approach all-time record-high temperatures like what was observed during the June heat wave, daily record-high temperatures are expected to fall in places like Seattle and Portland mid- to late week," said Buckingham.

On Monday, the official reporting station in Portland recorded its 64th day this year with a high temperature of 80 or above. For the entirety of 2020, Portland experienced 63 days with high temperatures at or above 80 degrees. With plenty more warm days ahead, the city may have a shot at challenging the all-time record for days at or above 80 degrees in a calendar year, 88 days set in 2015.

Seattle already has had three days with high temperatures of 100 or higher this summer, which is a new yearly record for the city, according to the NWS. If Seattle records another day of 95 degrees or higher, it will tie the record of four from 1977.

In Portland, the city has also recorded three days of 100 or higher this summer. The current record for most 100-degree days in a year for the city is five from 1977.

As if abnormally high air temperatures weren't enough bad news, AccuWeather forecasters say AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures will be able to climb even higher than the actual mercury.

From midweek into the upcoming weekend, some across the Northwest will have to deal with AccuWeather RealFeel® Temperatures that run 3-5 degrees above the actual air temperature. Meaning places like Portland could feel more like the mid-100s than the upper 90s or low 100s.

AccuWeather forecasters urge residents to plan ahead for the coming heat in order to remain safe.

"Staying hydrated, wearing light-colored clothing and sunscreen, checking vehicles before locking them, staying out of the sun in an air-conditioned room and checking in on relatives and neighbors are all ways to safely deal with the upcoming heat wave," Storm said.

In addition to concerns about heat-related illnesses, the dry and hot weather will likely work to exacerbate wildfire and smoke issues.

"Drought conditions, worsened by heat, can allow wildfires to spark easier than if the ground was cool and saturated. Additionally, there will be no assistance to firefighters in the form of rain in the near future," Storm said.

As of Wednesday morning, about 105 large wildfires were burning in the continental U.S., and 76 were blazing in the Northwest alone, according to the National Interagency Fire Center.

AccuWeather forecasters say some relief from the heat across the Northwest can arrive as early as the start of next week, when the heat dome is forecast to shift out of the area

UN report: Global warming is likely to blow past Paris limit

ate is getting so hot that temperatures in about a decade will probably blow past a level of warming that world leaders have sought to prevent, according to a report released Monday that the United Nations calls a “code red for humanity.” IPCC Vice Chair and Senior Advisor for Climate Ko Barrett explains.

Algeria sentences journalist to 8 months in jail

A demonstration outside the newspaper Liberte in Algiers on April 25, 2021 calling for the Kareche's release - AFP


Issued on: 12/08/2021 - 

Algiers (AFP)

Algerian journalist Rabah Kareche, who reported on a protest movement by the Tuareg minority, was sentenced Thursday to serve eight months behind bars, his newspaper Liberte said.

It said a court in the southern town of Tamanrasset handed Kareche, who was arrested in April, a one-year term with four months suspended. Taking into account time served, he has four months left in prison.

He had been charged with "spreading false information liable to damage public order" and was accused of posting reports that could trigger "segregation and hatred within society".

Rights group Amnesty International denounced the sentence as a new blow to freedom of the press in Algeria, and called for Kareche's release.

Kareche was arrested after reporting that the Tuareg, a Berber minority who have long complained of economic and social marginalisation, had protested over "expropriation" of their historical lands.

His detention triggered protests from fellow journalists, especially after President Abdelmadjid Tebboune described Kareche as an "arsonist" in an interview before his sentencing.

To the dismay of rights and media freedom groups, the government last year criminalised the dissemination of "false news" that "harms national unity".

Human Rights Watch has repeatedly accused Algerian authorities of resorting to criminal prosecutions against journalists and others using vaguely worded offences in the penal code.

Media watchdog Reporters Without Borders (RSF) ranked Algeria 146th out of 180 countries and territories in its 2021 World Press Freedom Index.

© 2021 AFP

'Airpocalypse' smoke reaches North Pole for the first time ever

By Mark Puleo, Accuweather.com

Satellite imagery from NASA shows smoke from wildfires in the Siberian region of Russia have reached the North Pole in what the agency is calling "a first in recorded history." Image courtesy NASA

Aug. 12 -- Santa Claus isn't supposed to see smoke. For the first time in recorded history, hazy smoke from raging wildfires in the Arctic has reached the North Pole, and NASA satellites have the images to prove it.

A week ago, the space agency's MODIS, an imaging sensor on the Aqua satellite, captured true-color images of what NASA called a "vast, thick, and acrid blanket of smoke" that clouded the North Pole.

The smoke is coming from enormous fires that are burning in the Siberian region of northern Russia.

According to China's Xinhua news agency, the Mongolian capital city of Ulaanbaatar was blanketed in "white smoke." The republic of Yakutia, home to Oymyakon, the coldest inhabited place on Earth, has also been shrouded in smoke, as captured by MODIS images last Friday.

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The thick smoke in Yakutia sent air quality measurements in recent weeks plummeting to an extreme category dubbed "airpocalypse," a category described by officials to have "immediate and heavy effects on everybody."

Smoke from the Siberian wildfires can be seen stretching across the Arctic Circle, shrouding the North Pole and impacting areas of Greenland and Canada. Image courtesy NOAA/CIRA

The "airpocalypse" inducing smoke was shown to have traveled almost 1,900 miles from Yakutia to the North Pole, according to NASA

"The smoke, which was so thick that most of the land below was obscured from view, stretches about 2,000 miles from east to west and 2,500 miles from south to north," the agency wrote. "But it captures only a small part of the smoke from the Russian fires."

RELATED Dixie Fire surpasses 500,000 acres; California professor accused of sparking fires

To reach Ulaanbaatar, NASA added that the smoke needed to have traveled more than 1,200 miles. From there, it appeared to waft over nearly the entire Arctic Circle, impacting Nunavut, Canada and areas of western Greenland.

Wildfires have been burning in Siberia more frequently than ever before. While the total size is difficult to determine in the remote area, Russian weather monitoring institute Rosgidromet said this week that more than 8 million acres were burning and more than 34 million have been destroyed so far this season, the second-worst mark on record.

For comparison, during the California wildfire season last year, which was the worst on record, just under 4.4 million acres were burned.

RELATED Portland could hit 104 amid scorching heat wave

In the United States, Americans have seen firsthand this year how wildfire smoke can travel thousands of miles.

Fires in California and Montana have drastically impacted air quality levels in cities like Denver, which is more than 1,000 miles away from the Dixie Fire in Northern California.

Americans have also been on the receiving end of Siberian wildfire smoke. In 2019, wind currents carried smoke across the Pacific Ocean and into Alaska and northwestern Canada.



The moon appears orange due to smoke from wildfires on the West Coast as it sets behind the Manhattan skyline in New York City on July 21, 2021. The fires are leaving smoke all the way across the country to the Eastern Seaboard causing hazy skies. Photo by John Angelillo/UPI | License Photo

Census data reveals growth in racial, ethnic diversity in U.S.

WHAT ROSS, SESSIONS, AND TRUMP FEARED

The U.S. Capitol is seen in Washington, D.C., on Monday. Thursday's data drop from the 2020 Census will begin a frenzied race to redraw congressional districts that will impact the results of House races during the 2020s, and possibly which party controls the lower chamber for the next decade. Photo by Sarah Silbiger/UPI | License Photo

Aug. 12 (UPI) -- Census data released Thursday indicates that the United States is growing more racially diverse and that the number of people who identify as White in the country has decreased for the first time in more than two centuries.

According to the detailed data from the 2020 census, 204.3 million people identified as White, down from 223.6 million in 2010, an 8.6% decrease. The Census Bureau warned that comparisons between the past two censuses should be "made with caution" because the bureau retooled how questions about race and ethnicity are asked

"As the country has grown, we have continued to evolve in how we measure the race and ethnicity of the people who live here," said Nicholas Jones, director and senior adviser for race and ethnicity research and outreach at the Census Bureau.

"Today's release of 2020 census redistricting data provides a new snapshot of the racial and ethnic composition and diversity of the country. The improvements we made to the 2020 Census yield a more accurate portrait of how people self-identify in response to two separate questions on Hispanic origin and race, revealing that the U.S. population is much more multiracial and more diverse than what we measured in the past."

In addition to a reduction in the absolute number of people who identify as White, the portion of the overall population also dropped from 63.7% in 2010 to 57.8% in 2020.

For the first time, the Hispanic or Latino population became the most prevalent ethnic group in California. The non-Hispanic White population remained the majority in all other states and territories except Hawaii, New Mexico, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico.

The detailed data from the 2020 census is likely to have an impact on federal elections for the rest of the decade, beginning with next year's midterms.

The key population data also will begin a political redistricting process -- redrawing congressional districts -- that occurs once every decade.



Results of the 2020 Census have been weighed down by concerns that the process was rushed under the Trump administration due to delays related to the COVID-19 pandemic and its efforts to add a citizenship question. File Photo by Mike Theiler/UPI | License Photo

The data released Thursday is used to re-evaluate congressional districts, which are based on population sizes and makeup. Because the next census won't come until 2030, the changes will last for the remainder of the decade, if they withstand legal challenges.

The redistricting is expected to impact the 2022 midterms in 15 months, an election when Democrats will be looking to maintain and expand their majority in the House of Representatives and expand their narrow control of the Senate. Republicans, on the other hand, are looking to retake control of both chambers.

Democratic and Republican strategists predict that some states will finalize their new maps as soon as September. About half of states will set their new districts by the end of 2021 and the rest will follow in the first few months of 2022, Politico reported.

According to census reapportionment data released in April, the influential states of Texas, Florida and North Carolina gained a total of four House seats for 2022. All three states voted to re-elect former President Donald Trump last November.

Colorado, Montana and Oregon are the only other states to gain seats in the House, according to reapportionment data.

The data revealed that cities (8.7%) have grown faster than the overall population (7.35%).

Results from the 2020 Census have been weighed down by concerns that the process was rushed under Trump's administration due to delays related to the COVID-19 pandemic and the former administration's failed efforts to add a citizenship question.

Thursday's data was originally scheduled to be released in April but was pushed back because of the delays. The bureau committed to release the information this month after Alabama filed a lawsuit calling for its prompt release.

An external task force from the American Statistical Association has been observing and assessing the bureau's process and the organization said last week it will release a report on state-level apportionment numbers following the release of the redistricting files.

In January, Census Bureau Director Steve Dillingham announced his resignation almost a year before he was supposed to retire.

The Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee last week approved President Joe Biden's selection to lead the bureau, Robert Santos, and placed him on track for full Senate confirmation.

Thursday's data will be released in a raw "legacy" format that can take weeks for states to disseminate. The information will be distributed more broadly in an "easier-to-use" format by the end of next month, the Census Bureau said.

"It's like Ikea furniture instead of Pottery Barn," Kelly Ward Burton, president of the National Democratic Redistricting Committee, said of the raw data coming Thursday, according to Politico.

"When you buy from Pottery Barn, it all comes assembled. It's like, 'Here's your desk.' But when you get it from Ikea, it's like, 'Build it yourself.'"