New way of analyzing tree rings confirms unprecedented central Asia warming

by Earth Institute at Columbia University

Baatarbileg Nachin and Brendan Buckley collect a tree ring core from a Siberian larch that dated to 1250, August 1998. Credit: Neil Pederson

A relatively new way of analyzing tree rings has allowed researchers to reconstruct temperatures in Mongolia since 1269 C.E. The new reconstruction confirms that since the 1990s, summer temperatures are the warmest the region has seen in the past eight centuries.

Published in Geophysical Research Letters, the study is led by Nicole Davi, an adjunct senior research scientist at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory.

Central Asia is one of the fastest-warming places on the planet. In just the past 15 years, summer temperatures have warmed 1.59 degrees C, or nearly 3 degrees F—almost three times the global average rate. During the same period, the region has suffered through extreme and extended droughts.

To date, there are only a handful of long-term climate records in central Asia that can help to put these trends into context. Analyzing the rings from trees can tell scientists about temperature and precipitation patterns hundreds or thousands of years in the past, but suitably old trees and logs in this region can be difficult to sample, in part due to their remoteness.

The scarcity of tree ring data in the region makes the new reconstruction all the more important. To create it, Davi and her colleagues analyzed tree ring cores that were originally collected in 1998 and 2005 for a project led by her mentor, Gordon Jacoby, co-founder of the Tree Ring Lab at Lamont. Jacoby had been trying to reconstruct the region's temperature history using ring widths, but the data wasn't strong enough, so he set it aside. Before Jacoby died in 2014, Davi asked permission to take over the project.

The samples come from several high-elevation forests in western Mongolia. "People think of it as this vast steppe system, but there are some remarkable old forests throughout the country and it's very pristine," said Davi. The locations were very remote, she added. "It is quite an expedition to get to these forests."

The cores come from a combination of living Siberian larch trees dating back 400 to 500 years, and relict wood—ancient trees that had fallen over but hadn't decayed, thanks to the cold and dry conditions. "When we find relict wood it's super exciting because we know we can go back further in time," said Davi.

A map of Mongolia showing the locations of sites that were included in the study (BU, KK, 

and OZN, represented by triangles). Blue and red dots show weather stations that record

 temperature. Credit: From Davi et al./Geophysical Research Letters 2021

She wanted to put the samples to good use, and since the ring-width model hadn't panned out, the team decided to try a different way of analyzing them: Measuring the density of the wood. This is done by taking an extremely thin sliver of the tree core—thinner than a human hair—and shining light through it. More light will penetrate through less dense rings, and less dense rings indicate colder growing conditions. Davi and her team tried this method, but unfortunately, she said, "It's expensive, it takes a lot of time, and it's pretty destructive. It would break up the core, and we couldn't get what we needed."

Finally, the team turned to a newer method that came into use a few years ago and has shown promising results. Called delta blue intensity, the method looks at how well each ring reflects blue light in its latewood (the darker band that forms later in the growing season) compared to in the lighter early wood. Less dense wood that results from cooler conditions absorbs less blue light.

The stronger results from the delta blue light technique allowed the team to build a model of summer temperatures in the region from 1269 to 2004 C.E. The reconstruction matches up well with data from regional weather stations dating back to the 1950s, as well as cooling events associated with several large-scale volcanic eruptions.

For Davi, publishing these findings feels personally meaningful. "Gordon Jacoby was my Ph.D. advisor, mentor, and friend," she said. "We had a lot of adventures doing fieldwork together. Bringing closure to some of the research that he started definitely feels good."

The findings support the growing potential of the delta blue intensity method to improve our understanding of past climates, said Davi. They also put central Asia's warming into context, and enhance projections, under which the region is expected to warm by another 3 to 6 degrees C (5.4 to 10.8 F) by the end of the century. The rapid warming is already harming fragile ecosystems and causing devastating livestock losses for pastoralists, who traditionally have formed the backbone of the Mongolian economy.

"What does it mean for livelihoods in Mongolia?" asks Davi. "This is a largely agrarian culture. Some people live in cities, but there are also people who are nomadic herders who have been living the same way for thousands of years. This reconstruction certainly adds context to the warming of the past several decades, and to global climate models showing what it could look like in the future."

The paper recommends continued investment in infrastructure and climate resilience programs such as index-based livestock insurance to help communities cope with the changing conditions.Yellowstone National Park is hotter than ever

More information: N. K. Davi et al, Accelerated Recent Warming and Temperature Variability Over the Past Eight Centuries in the Central Asian Altai From Blue Intensity in Tree Rings, Geophysical Research Letters (2021). DOI: 10.1029/2021GL092933

Journal information: Geophysical Research Letters 

Provided by Earth Institute at Columbia University 

MORE H2 GREENWASHING
Scientists Just Laid Out a Game Plan for Building a Clean Hydrogen Economy

By Edd Gent
-Aug 16, 2021

Batteries and renewable energy are helping to decarbonize large swathes of the modern world, but they look less likely to help in areas like industrial heating, long-haul heavy transportation, and long-duration energy storage. Some are touting hydrogen as a potentially emissions-free alternative fuel that could fill the gap.

The Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, which passed the Senate last week, features $8 billion earmarked to create four regional hydrogen hubs, as well as support for further research and development to accelerate clean hydrogen technology.

However, building out a national hydrogen economy that is both competitive and clean will not be easy, say the authors of a commentary article in Joule. They outline the main challenges the effort faces and the key ingredients that will be required to support the production, transport, storage, and use of clean hydrogen.

The world already produces 70 million metric tons of hydrogen every year, most of which is used to make petrochemicals and synthesize ammonia for fertilizer. It’s primarily derived from fossil fuels by subjecting methane to steam, high heat, and pressure to break it into hydrogen and carbon dioxide, and costs about $1 per kilogram.

Today, that CO2 is simply released into the atmosphere, so this so-called “gray hydrogen” is not especially good for the environment. But there are proposals to capture the CO2 using carbon capture technology and store it deep underground. This so-called “blue carbon” costs 50 percent more, but is touted as a clean source of hydrogen.

In reality, the authors note that only 70 to 80 percent of CO2 can be reliably captured. A cleaner alternative is to use renewable electricity to power electrolyzers that split water into hydrogen and oxygen, but today that “green hydrogen” costs three to four times as much as gray hydrogen.

One less-developed but potentially promising approach is to heat methane in the absence of oxygen. This produces “turquoise hydrogen” and solid carbon as a byproduct. This black carbon can be sold for about $1 a kilogram, though the market for it is fairly small and would quickly be saturated if this became the primary method of hydrogen production.

To compete with gray hydrogen and fossil fuels, all of these approaches would need to hit a cost of $1 per kilogram, say the authors. At that price, clean hydrogen would become viable to replace gray hydrogen in chemical production and gasoline for transportation applications. To break into industrial heating it would probably have to drop below $0.40 per kilogram, though.

On top of that, we also need to find ways to transport and store huge amounts of hydrogen. This presents a major challenge, because the amount of energy in a given volume of hydrogen is a third of that in natural gas. That means either the pressure it’s stored at or the speed at which it’s pumped will need to be boosted three-fold, the authors say.

Building a whole new network of high-pressure hydrogen pipelines and storage tanks would be a massive investment. Instead, we could rely on the existing natural gas and electricity infrastructure to transport the feedstock for making clean hydrogen—electricity and methane—to smaller local hydrogen generation facilities.

According to the article’s authors, the US Geological Survey should be charged with scanning the country for underground caverns where large amounts of hydrogen could be stored. Also, more research and development should go into proposals to convert hydrogen into chemicals that are easier to store, such as ammonia, light alcohols, and metal hydrides.

Some of the steps required to make this happen have already been taken. Earlier this year, the US Energy Secretary launched an initiative to bring the cost of clean hydrogen down to $1 per kilogram by the end of the decade.

Beyond that, the government also needs to support technology demonstrators to help companies test out key parts of a future hydrogen infrastructure. Federal or state authorities also need to implement carbon pricing or clean energy standards to incentivize a shift to hydrogen, while using their purchasing power to support the nascent market.

Economic realities also suggest that green hydrogen is unlikely to be able to support all demand for hydrogen. Given that a lot of this shortfall is likely to be made up by blue hydrogen (at least in the short term), any hydrogen strategy should be aligned with a carbon management plan that includes infrastructure for carbon capture and storage, both from hydrogen production and other fossil fuel use.

Whether a hydrogen economy that’s not entirely reliant on green hydrogen will really be a boon for the climate is uncertain, though. A recent paper in Energy Science and Engineering found that due to methane leaks during natural gas extraction and the fossil-fuel-derived energy used to drive the process, blue carbon production actually releases more greenhouse gases than burning coal.

The New York Times notes that fossil fuel companies have been lobbying hard for investments in hydrogen, but consensus is growing among experts that any hydrogen economy reliant on natural gas is unlikely to be a solution to climate change.

Nonetheless, most experts agree that hydrogen will play an important role in hard-to-decarbonize areas, so building out that infrastructure will be important. While economics might dictate that this will initially have to be driven by hydrogen with less climate-friendly credentials, in time it will hopefully be replaced by truly green hydrogen.

Image Credit: Gennaro Leonardi from Pixabay

EDD GENT
I am a freelance science and technology writer based in Bangalore, India. My main areas of interest are engineering, computing and biology, with a particular focus on the intersections between the three.

WW3.0

Chinese state media sets sights on Taiwan as US' Afghan retreat stokes nationalism

By Nectar Gan and Steve George, CNN 54 mins ago


The chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan has presented Beijing with a propaganda boost, with Chinese state media capitalizing on the crisis to trumpet the supposed decline of America and taunt Taiwan with threats of invasion.

© Shekib Rahmani/AP US soldiers stand guard along a perimeter at the international airport in Kabul, Afghanistan, Monday, August 16, 2021.

The jingoistic rhetoric coincided with air and naval drills launched Tuesday by the Chinese military, which sent fighter jets and warships near Taiwan in response to what it called the "repeated collusion in provocation" by Washington and Taipei.

In recent years, China's ruling Communist Party has sought to present the US as a fading global power. And now, the return of the Taliban to the streets of the Afghan capital is being touted by state media as the "death knell of US hegemony."

"The fall of Kabul marks the collapse of the international image and credibility of the US," a commentary from state news agency Xinhua said Monday.

"Following the blows of the global financial crisis and the Covid-19 pandemic, the decay of the American hegemony has become an undisputed reality. Its failure in Afghanistan is another turning point in that spiral fall," it added.

The Global Times, a state-run nationalist tabloid, meanwhile, has repeatedly played up what it described as the "unreliability of US commitment to its allies," suggesting the self-governing island of Taiwan could face the same fate as Afghanistan in the event of conflict with China.

Taiwan and mainland China have been governed separately since the end of a civil war more than seven decades ago, in which the defeated Nationalists fled to Taipei. But the Chinese Communist Party views Taiwan — a democratic island of around 24 million people — as an inseparable part of its territory, despite having never controlled it.

"Once a war breaks out in the Taiwan Straits, the island's defense will collapse in hours and the US military won't come to help." the Global Times said in an editorial Monday.

Arthur Ding, an international relations professor at National Chengchi University in Taipei, called Beijing's propaganda messaging on Afghanistan "cheap psychological warfare," noting it was intended to convey the US' alleged unreliability, especially to Taiwan's more receptive opposition supporters who favor closer ties with Beijing.

For decades an uneasy status quo governed cross-strait relations. But under President Xi Jinping, China has increased military activity around the island, in response to what it considers to be growing calls for formal independence.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, discussions have broken out across Taiwanese social media in recent days as to how the government in Taipei would respond in the event of a Chinese invasion, and whether the US would indeed come to the island's defense.

So much so, that on Tuesday, Taiwan's premier publicly stressed the island would not collapse like Afghanistan if invaded. In a press conference, Premier Su Tseng-chang appeared to confront the Chinese threats directly, saying Taiwan's leaders are "not afraid of being killed or imprisoned" by "powerful countries that want to swallow up Taiwan using force."

Politicians in Taiwan's ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DDP) also dismissed attempts to draw parallels between Taiwan and Afghanistan, saying such comparisons are inherently fraught.

"If we're going to make Afghan comparisons, Taiwan survived that moment 40+ years ago. US troops left Taiwan in 1979 after recognizing the PRC," Wen Lii, a local ruling party official, wrote on Twitter, referring to China by abbreviation of its official name the People's Republic of China. "So no, Taiwan is not Afghanistan," he added.

Kolas Yotaka, spokesperson for Taiwan's Presidential Office, said the "lazy comparisons...ignore the realities of both countries, and show little regard for the immense human suffering facing many in Afghanistan today."

Despite formally switching diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing, the US has remained a staunch ally of Taiwan, supplying the island with defensive weaponry under the terms of the decades-old Taiwan Relations Act, including a proposed $750 million arms sale announced earlier this month.

In April, US President Joe Biden dispatched an unofficial delegation to Taiwan in a show of support for the island, according to a senior administration official and a State Department spokesperson.

The State Department also announced in April that the agency had "issued new guidelines for US government interaction with Taiwan counterparts to encourage US government engagement with Taiwan that reflects our deepening unofficial relationship."

On Tuesday, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) conducted "joint fire assault and other drills using actual troops" off the southwest and southeast of Taiwan, according to a statement from the PLA's Eastern Theater Command.

"Recently, the US and Taiwan have repeatedly colluded in provocation and sent serious wrong signals, severely infringing upon China's sovereignty, and severely undermining peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait," the statement said. "It is a solemn response to external interference and provocations by Taiwan independence forces."

Though many have speculated the abrupt announcement of the PLA drills was likely timed to accompany Beijing's propaganda messaging on Afghanistan, Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command's Joint Intelligence Center, said the scale of the drills suggested some degree of prior planning, rather than being tied to a specific event.

'DOTARD' TOO

US Senator John Cornyn deletes erroneous Taiwan tweet blasted by Chinese media

The lawmaker was called a ‘dotard’ after incorrectly posting that the US has 30,000 troops stationed on the island ‘today’

Global Times editor-in-chief Hu Xijin says if Cornyn’s tweet is true, China must ‘immediately launch a war to eliminate and expel US soldiers’


Reuters
Published: 3:11am, 18 Aug, 2021
REFUSING TO WEAR A MASK

US Senator John Cornyn talks to reporters as he arrives for a vote on Capitol Hill on August 10. Photo: Reuters

US Republican Senator John Cornyn has deleted a tweet in which he said wrongly that the United States currently has 30,000 troops stationed in Taiwan, a claim that spurred Chinese media to call him a “dotard”.

Cornyn included the statistic late on Monday in a tweet about the numbers of US troops based around the world “today”, including in Afghanistan before the final withdrawal of US forces from that country, which is now under Taliban control.

The US military did have forces in Taiwan before the United States formally established ties with communist China in 1979. Those troops were removed over time, including under diplomatic agreements.

The Global Times, a Chinese state-controlled tabloid, pounced on the Texas senator’s error as evidence of the irresponsibility of US politicians.

“The tweet saying US is stationing ‘30,000 troops’ in China’s Taiwan island could be a jaw-dropping mistake or hype from a ‘dotard’ senator, but it is shocking enough to see how irresponsible American politicians are on crucial issue of Taiwan Straits,” the tabloid said on Twitter.

Cornyn’s office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Global Times editor-in-chief Hu Xijin tweeted that Taiwan authorities must explain Cornyn’s remark and added if it is true, China must “immediately launch a war to eliminate and expel US soldiers”.

Cornyn has been an outspoken proponent of boosting US ties with Taiwan and has introduced legislation to establish a partnership between the US National Guard and Taiwan’s defence forces.

Chinese officials consider the status of self-ruled Taiwan, to which nationalist troops fled after losing China’s civil war, one of its most bedrock policy issues, and has never renounced the use of force to bring the island under its control.

The United States is committed to ensuring Taiwan can defend itself under the Taiwan Relations Act.

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A LOCK OUT IS UNION BUSTING

Lockout Continues at Town of Grand Falls-Windsor

Aug 17, 2021 | 8:25 AM

(CUPE protest outside Grand Falls-Windsor town hall on July 13.)

Grand Falls-Windsor and its union remain in a dead heat with the lockout now going into its second month. No new talks are scheduled.

One of the issues concerns the medical plan for employees, which is paid for entirely by the town. While the union has been invited to sit on a committee that will review the plan, CUPE says it would not have any say on decisions, opposite the situation which currently exists. They have offered to go to the market to find a new plan.

Union official Tammy Greening says there are many other issues.

They’re concerned about the treatment of casual workers who are on call 24 hours a day, seven days a week for seven months of the year. Greening says they get dinged if they miss a call even if they call back two minutes later.

The town says it has offered a wage increase of 3 per cent over 3 1/2 years but the union wants 6 per cent over that period plus a one per cent increase in pension over the next four years.

Nfld. & Labrador

What will other towns learn from the Grand Falls-Windsor lockout?

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Town locked out its employees a month ago

Garrett Barry · CBC News · Posted: Aug 17, 2021 

Locked-out workers from the town of Grand Falls-Windsor picket alongside a contractor picking up garbage in the town in August. (Garrett Barry/CBC)

The plastic Christmas tree almost doesn't seem out of place at the union headquarters in Grand Falls-Windsor.

You probably wouldn't look twice — if it wasn't displayed five months before the holidays.

With time ticking by, and negotiations again at an impasse, the contract dispute between workers and the town of Grand Falls-Windsor is threatening to go long.

One labour relations researcher in Newfoundland and Labrador says however it ends, other towns in the province are keenly interested.

"I think there's lots of towns in Newfoundland and Labrador that are facing some serious, serious budget issues and the likelihood of getting funds from the province pretty darn low," said Gord Cooke, an associate professor at Memorial University with a specialty in labour relations.

A union's Christmas wish list is hung in on a tree, even though it's only August. (Garrett Barry/CBC)

"I think that this will be the first of many, many, many disputes like this in the coming months and years."

Dispute details

The contract dispute isn't — strictly speaking — only about pay. The Town of Grand Falls-Windsor locked out its unionized employees on July 15, following months of negotiations with CUPE 1349.

Mayor Barry Manuel says the town's demands, which he has taken the unusual step of publishing online and sharing with his residents, are requests for sustainability.

Barry Manuel is the mayor of Grand Falls-Windsor. (Garrett Barry/CBC)

The town wants the unionized employees to pay for any future increases to the health insurance costs, and wants more power to determine job classifications, descriptions and vacancies on its own.

"We understand that the union has a good contract, a fair contract, and we want that to remain," he said last week. "But we also have to recognize that this is 2021, things have changed. Things will continue to change, particularly financially for municipalities."

• Ontario municipalities facing multi-billion dollar shortfall in 2021, with no emergency funding in sight

CUPE 1349 president Ed White says the town's requests are extraordinary.

"What the town was looking for doesn't exist in other municipal agreements, at least none that I'm aware of," he said. 

White says he knows that COVID-19 has changed the fiscal situation for many employers, but he says he hasn't seen anything that could support the town's "ridiculous" proposals.

"We're not opposed to working with employers on those challenges, but it can't be one-sided," he said. 

He said taking all responsibility for future health insurance plan increases leaves members vulnerable. What happens, he asks, if expensive, new drugs become more and more mainstream, as Canada's population ages and research and development focus shifts?

"We're not prepared to do that," he says. "It's too risky"

Demands and tactics

Cooke says other municipalities in the province will be paying attention to both Grand Falls-Windsor's requests and their tactics in this labour dispute.

Ed White is a national representative with CUPE in Newfoundland and Labrador. He says he isn't concerned about other collective agreements and what precedents might be set, he's concerned solely with solving the dispute in Grand Falls-Windsor. (Garrett Barry/CBC)

He said that in his experience, people in Newfoundland and Labrador have tended to side with unions in public sector disputes — but COVID-19 and its financial hit may have changed the state of play.

"At times, the benefit package or the pension package... in the public sector exceeds what the private sector folks are getting, and that's been a change in the last 20 to 30 years," he said.

"I think that there is potentially going to be less taxpayer support, less support from the general public toward public sector disputes. And that, in turn, might push towns to be more aggressive."

Public sector negotiations are a multi-part battle, he says, where both the employer and the workers are appealing to the general public for their support.

"I do think that a bunch of towns will be looking to see whether they should maybe be firmer in negotiations," he added. "But the question is, do you have to be this confrontational with your workers — if you think that [Grand Falls-Windsor] is being confrontational?"

CUPE 1349 members picket along a garbage collection route that a contractor is fulfilling while the town's unionized employees are locked out. (Garrett Barry/CBC)

As the contract dispute continues, both sides have bemoaned tactics taken on social media.

The town has brought in contractors to continue the garbage pick-up in Grand Falls-Windsor, and the union has responded with pickets following the truck. It's one of the most public aspects of the dispute, given most other town services are continuing with little interruption.

On the picket line, members tell each other to prepare for a long, drawn-out battle.

As the weeks pass, the Christmas tree in the union headquarters — a statement of protest, decked out with tags containing the scribbled wishes of town workers — becomes more and more relevant. White says it's a sign that the union and members aren't close to breaking.

"The message for that is that the members are prepared to to do whatever it takes to to maintain their collective agreement," he said.

Read more from CBC Newfoundland and Labrador

Exxon’s oil drilling gamble off Guyana coast ‘poses major environmental risk’

Experts warn of potential for disaster as Exxon pursues 9bn barrels in sensitive marine ecosystem

The Bob Douglas drill ship operated by Noble Energy for ExxonMobil floats 120 miles offshore of Guyana in 2018. It was drilling the first production oil well in Guyana’s history. Photograph: Christopher Gregory/The Guardian

Supported by

Antonia Juhasz for Floodlight
Tue 17 Aug 2021 


ExxonMobil’s huge new Guyana project faces charges of a disregard for safety from experts who claim the company has failed to adequately prepare for possible disaster, the Guardian and Floodlight have found.

Exxon has been extracting oil from Liza 1, an ultra-deepwater drilling operation, since 2019 – part of an expansive project spanning more than 6m acres off the coast of Guyana that includes 17 additional prospects in the exploration and preparatory phases.

By 2025, the company expects to produce 800,000 barrels of oil a day, surpassing estimates for its entire oil and natural gas production in the south-western US Permian basin by 100,000 barrels that year. Guyana would then represent Exxon’s largest single source of fossil fuel production anywhere in the world.

But experts claim that Exxon in Guyana appears to be taking advantage of an unprepared government in one of the lowest-income nations in South America, allowing the company to skirt necessary oversight. Worse, they also believe the company’s safety plans are inadequate and dangerous.

A top engineer who studies oil industry disasters, as well as a former government regulator, have leveled criticisms at Exxon. They say workers’ lives, public health and Guyana’s oceans and fisheries – which locals rely on heavily– are all at stake.

The Indigenous communities that rely heavily on fishing could be devastated in the event of a major spill. Photograph: Christopher Gregory/The Guardian

“Exxon is only going to be here for 20 to 25 years,” said Vincent Adams, Guyana’s former environment chief. “When they make all their billions, and they’re ready to pack up and they’re gone, we’ve got to deal with the mess.”

Environmental campaigners and activist shareholders suggest Exxon also cannot reconcile the project with its public commitments to address climate change and reduce carbon emissions.

Exxon claims its climate goals are “some of the most aggressive” in the industry, but its operations in Guyana will send more than 2bn metric tons of climate-destroying CO2 into the atmosphere.

Exxon contends that the company complies with all applicable laws in Guyana and adhered to a rigorous process to obtain environment authorization for its projects there. “Our work and the support of the government of Guyana are the basis of a long-term mutually-beneficial relationship that has already created significant value for the people of Guyana,” Exxon said in a written statement in response to questions from the Guardian.

Exxon’s ‘cash cow’

Robert Bea, among the world’s foremost forensic engineers and a leading expert on the 2010 BP oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, worries that Exxon’s operations appear to lack the appropriate preparation or planning to head off a deepwater blowout and major oil spill. “I am far from comfortable,” Bea, co-director of the Marine Technology and Management Group Center for Risk Mitigation, said. “They should be too.”

Vincent Adams suggests Exxon is cutting corners to increase profits. Exxon “has no respect for the people’s health, safety and environment”, he said. Adams, a petroleum and environmental engineer, worked for 30 years at the US Department of Energy before returning to his native Guyana in 2018 to become executive director of the Environmental Protection Agency. He was let go in August 2020 when a new government came to power, and as his agency was trying to negotiate a stringent permit with Exxon.

Before Exxon’s operations, Guyana had no meaningful fossil fuels production, a point of pride for Melinda Janki, a Guyanese international environmental lawyer who is suing Guyana’s government to strip Exxon of its leases on climate and human rights grounds. She noted that rich rainforests cover 80% of Guyana, making it a carbon sink that absorbs far more of the planet-heating greenhouse gas than it emits. In 2015, Guyana made a commitment under the Paris climate accord to eliminate any reliance on fossil fuels.

But those achievements are now being undermined by Exxon, she said. The result of Exxon’s Guyana operations – from drilling the oil to burning it in cars – would be the release of 125m metric tons of carbon dioxide per year from 2025 to 2040. That’s roughly the equivalent of 15 large coal-fired power plants, according to Mark Chernaik, staff scientist at the Environmental Law Alliance Worldwide.

Moreover, Exxon flares, or burns, its excess gas. In the first 15 months of production alone, that flaring contributed nearly 770,000 metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions – the equivalent of driving 167,000 cars for one year.

In 2015, Exxon became the first company to strike a significant oil find in Guyana. It then swiftly pushed through a contract roundly criticised as one-sided in its favor. Exxon’s oil finds kept coming. It now estimates there are 9bn barrels of oil off the coast of Guyana. The Liza 1 prospect is the first to start pumping, with Exxon operating in deeper waters and nearly three times farther from shore than BP’s Deepwater Horizon rig in the Gulf of Mexico.

Exxon’s interest in Guyana is straightforward, according to Palzor Shenga, vice-president of analysis at Rystad Energy. The costs per barrel of oil produced in Guyana are a full $5 to $10 cheaper than the global average, making it, in Shenga’s words, a “cash cow”. This helps explain why Exxon began producing oil approximately twice as fast as “the industry average for projects of this size”, as Exxon boasted in its 2020 annual report.

Exxon told the Guardian that the “record pace” at which it is bringing projects online yields cost savings, which benefit Guyana. Critics say Exxon’s contract terms are lopsided. The government is receiving a below average return on Exxon’s projects, according to industry analysts at IHS Markit. Exxon receives more than 85% of the proceeds, the result of the government and public largely “absorbing Exxon’s costs”, according to the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA).

Exxon said that it will continue to “generate billions of dollars of revenue” for Guyana. Yet Guyana’s government has reported it has made just $309m from the projects since they began, while ExxonMobil and its partners had brought in roughly $1.8bn, said Tom Sanzillo, IEEFA director of financial analysis.

The Guyanese coast could be inundated with oil in the event of a disaster in Exxon’s offshore drilling operations. Photograph: Luis Acosta/AFP via Getty Images

Former EPA chief Adams says Exxon exercises undue influence over government officials, who are far too often intimidated by the company. He cites, as one example, Exxon’s consistent flaring of gas, despite assurances to the government that it would not.

According to Exxon, the flaring is the result of a faulty gas compressor it has been unable to repair for more than a year and a half.

Janki recounted watching with horror a massive fire in the Gulf of Mexico last month, when a gas pipeline at a Pemex offshore oil platform set the ocean ablaze with what looked like waves of molten lava.

“What is really terrifying,” said Janki, is if Exxon’s failures are symptoms of a rushed job and potentially systemic problems that could have catastrophic ends.
The spectre of Macondo

The greatest anxiety is over the risk of an event like the Macondo – the BP well that blew out in 2010, resulting in the deaths of 11 men aboard the Deepwater Horizon rig and the world’s largest offshore drilling oil spill.

In 2017, Exxon submitted a 500-page environmental impact statement on Liza 1 to Guyana’s Environmental Protection Agency, stating: “Unplanned events, such as a large oil spill, are considered unlikely to occur because of the extensive preventative measures employed.”

Petroleum engineer Robert Bea said it was reminiscent of BP’s original plans for the Macondo well, which stated, it is “unlikely that an accidental surface or subsurface oil spill would occur from the proposed activities”. Asked if such contentions are “typical” in offshore drilling, he said: “absolutely not”. Rather, he says, they reveal “ignorance of risk management fundamentals”.

Bea worked for Shell Oil before becoming one of the world’s premier safety and disaster investigators. He served as a principal investigator on the BP Deepwater Horizon disaster, the Piper Alpha offshore oil disaster that killed 167 men in the North Sea, the Exxon Valdez grounding and the crash of the Nasa Columbia space shuttle.

Bea reviewed more than 1,000 pages of Exxon submissions and government permits for Liza 1, to conduct an exclusive analysis for this reporting, and concluded that: “We could have a problem similar to what we had with BP before and after the Macondo disaster.”

He said he found no evidence of the necessary planning and operations needed to “assess and manage the risks associated with high risk offshore exploration, production, and transportation operations”. Exxon is instead offering superficial safety plans based on unsubstantiated claims of its capabilities in Guyana that fail to take account of the highly hazardous risks associated with its operations, he said.

There are “loose ends, assumptions, and premises that are not substantiated” in Exxon’s plans, Bea said. “And the more of these threads that you tug at, the more concerned you become that what’s being done here is superficial.”

In particular, Bea is worried about a loss of well control, or blowout – which could cause a catastrophic oil spill. He finds that Exxon has not kept the risks of such events as low as “reasonably practicable”, based on the documents he reviewed. Bea cites numerous problems with Exxon’s plans.

If a blowout occurs in Guyana, Exxon says it would be contained within 21 to 30 days –an estimate Bea said is far too optimistic, unsubstantiated and improbable.

He points in particular to the inadequate provision of the tools needed to stop a blowout and oil spill, namely a capping stack and relief well.

Similar concerns raised by Bea to officials in Australia resulted in the government there strengthening its requirements, which ultimately led BP to withdraw its plans to drill in the Australian Bight.

In addition Exxon’s plans for a potential oil spill response rely on methods that were heavily criticized when deployed in previous disasters. Exxon intends to use Corexit 9500, a chemical dispersant banned in the UK and faulted for severe human and environmental harms when used in the Exxon Valdez and BP oil spills. Exxon also intends to burn oil on the ocean surface even though it is drilling in the Amazon-Orinoco Influence Zone, an area rich in marine biodiversity, with rare and threatened species on which local Indigenous and other fishers depend.

Even with these measures, Exxon estimates a spill could send oil throughout the Caribbean Sea, across Trinidad and Venezuela, and as far as Jamaica. Exxon is relying on Guyana’s recently drafted national oil spill response plan; yet there remains a wide chasm between what’s written on paper and the government’s ability to implement it, argued former EPA chief Adams.

Adams said Guyana has insufficient equipment, personnel, expertise, funding and clear lines of responsibility to respond in a disaster. Adams also worries that the government will be forced to foot the bill if there is a disaster, because Exxon is placing liability for the project with a subsidiary.

‘Guyana is wholly unprepared for a Macondo,’ said Melinda Janki.

 Photograph: Andres Leighton/AP

“Guyana is wholly unprepared for a Macondo,” said Janki, who formerly served as in-house legal counsel for oil giant BP and drafted many of Guyana’s national environmental laws. The results of a blowout were catastrophic in the United States despite ample money, experience and infrastructure, she said, and “Guyana doesn’t have any of that.”

Exxon did not respond to the specific claims made by Bea, Adams and Janki, but said it has adhered to Guyanese laws and instituted “robust compliance assurance systems that enable identification and timely reporting of operational issues with the Environmental Protection Agency and Ministry of Natural Resources” of Guyana. Guyana’s government did not respond to requests for comment.

Adams said while Exxon would not deliberately cause an accident, “they’re going to bring it to the line [and take] the chance that nothing is going to happen until something happens. That’s what keeps me up at night.”
Investor woes

Exxon has come under public attack by its shareholders over its continued commitment to fossil fuels and inaction on climate. In May, shareholders voted in three new board members committed to diversifying Exxon’s operations and hitting meaningful targets to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions.

The investor advocacy group, As You Sow, criticized Exxon’s plans to open a massive new oil frontier in Guyana in the face of the International Energy Agency’s recent recommendations that there should be no investment in new fossil fuel supply. “Exxon’s activities in Guyana pose grave material risks to the company from an economic, legal, and human rights standpoint,” argued As You Sow CEO Andrew Behar. “We believe it’s fundamentally a flawed mission” that should be shut down.

Massive new oil production in Guyana raises other potential legal red flags for investors, warned Kathy Mulvey, the accountability campaign director of the Union of Concerned Scientists. She cited the court ruling in the Hague last month finding Shell liable for its contributions to climate change and said that other oil companies will also have to “reduce the worldwide oil and gas extraction.”

“We’re concerned that the people of Guyana are being asked to bet their economy and their future on oil when oil has no future in a carbon-constrained world,” said Carroll Muffett, president of the US Center for International Environmental Law.

In recent press statements, Exxon has reasserted its support of the Paris Agreement, yet failed to respond to these specific investor concerns, citing instead the significant economic development and job creation for Guyana that its operations provide there. Janki said she hopes more people will come to see what is at risk from Exxon’s operations in Guyana.

“We are facing a decision: our survival, or the survival of the fossil fuel sector,” Janki warned.

Is This South America’s Last Great Oil Boom?

By Matthew Smith - Aug 17, 2021, 

The Guyana-Suriname basin is gaining considerable attention from big oil despite the threat of peak oil demand and global push to significantly reduce carbon emissions. The U.S. Geological Survey calculated that the basin had mean undiscovered resources of 15.2 billion barrels of crude oil, 2.3 billion barrels of natural gas liquids and 42 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. Those numbers along with ExxonMobil’s exceptional exploration success in the Stabroek block offshore Guyana, with 21 high-quality oil discoveries, highlight the considerable hydrocarbon potential of what could be the last major offshore oil boom. The considerable potential of the Guyana-Suriname basin saw the USGS commit to reassessing its hydrocarbon potential in late-2019 but that was delayed by the pandemic. While Guyana is at the heart of what is emerging as South America’s hottest offshore oil boom, things continue to heat up on the Suriname side of the oil basin. Apache and partner TotalEnergies are experiencing substantial success in offshore Suriname Block 58. Since January 2020 the partners, which each hold a 50% share in Block 58 where TotalEnergies is the operator, have made four significant oil discoveries in the block. Then in late July 2021, while conducting appraisal drilling in Block 58 near the Sapakara West discovery, TotalEnergies made another discovery with the Sapakara South-1 well. 

Source: TotalEnergies.

That latest discovery brings the total number of discoveries in offshore Suriname Block 58 to five. Block 58 is adjacent to the prolific Stabroek block and is situated on the same crude oil fairway, meaning there will more than likely be further oil discoveries in the immediate future. When the Sapakara South -1 well is complete the Maersk Valiant drillship will move to drill the Bonboni prospect approximately 45 kilometers to the north.  

The crude oil found is described as high quality with API gravities of 27 to 45 degrees. Those characteristics and the assay for Exxon’s Liza crude oil grade, which has an API gravity of 32 degrees and 0.58% sulfur content, indicate that the basin’s petroleum resources are light and relatively sweet. That is important to note because demand for sweet medium and light crude oil is expanding at a solid clip because of stricter fuel emission regulations and the push to decarbonize the global economy in a post-Paris climate accord world. Those events see big oil shying away from investing in carbon-intensive petroleum projects. It is those operations that involve the exploitation of sour heavy and extra-heavy crude oil grades that are carbon-intensive to extract and refine. For those reasons, in accordance with plans to focus on low carbon intensity projects, TotalEnergies chose to hand its 30.32% in Venezuela’s extra-heavy crude oil Petrocedeño operation to national oil company PDVSA at a $1.38 billion capital loss.

TotalEnergies, however, is committed to continuing its exploration and development drilling in Block 58 offshore Suriname, which some analysts believe could hold up to 6.5 billion barrels of oil. Aside from targeting the Bonboni prospect for drilling the energy supermajor and partner Apache plan to conduct flow testing of the Sapakara South-1 well before the end of 2021. Exxon with 50% partner Petronas, which is the operator, discovered hydrocarbons with the Sloanea-1 exploration well in offshore Suriname Block 52 during December 2020. That block is to the north of Block 58 and also believed to be on the same oil fairway which contains the discoveries made in the neighboring offshore Guyana Stabroek block.

Aside from the attractiveness of the crude oil grades found in Block 58, it is estimated that offshore Suriname will have an average breakeven price of $40 per barrel once the discoveries are developed and enter production. While that is higher than the $35 currently pegged for Liza Phase one in the Stabroek block in Offshore Guyana they are among some of the lowest in South America and should fall as additional infrastructure is established. Suriname’s national government in Paramaribo is determined to make the former Dutch colony into a major regional oil producer. As part of that strategy, national oil company and industry regulator Staatsolie launched the 2020/21 shallow-water offshore bid round in November last year. In late June 2021 Staatsolie awarded three shallow-water offshore blocks; Block 5 went to U.S. energy supermajor Chevron while Blocks 6 and 8 were awarded to a consortium composed of TotalEnergies (40%), Staatsolie (40%), and Qatar Petroleum (20%).

Source: Staatsolie.

Suriname’s shallow-water blocks are to the south of Block 58 and contain similar geology to the deep-water blocks where discoveries have been made. This along with the blocks being underexplored and hydrocarbons being found during drilling in the 1980s points to their being the potential for crude oil discoveries. 

Paramaribo is determined to become a major regional oil producer with it predicted that offshore Suriname holding at least 1.9 billion barrels of recoverable oil resources for the discoveries made to date. Blocks 58 and 52 are expected to commence production sometime this decade with industry consultancy Rystad Energy anticipating that Suriname will be pumping around 650,000 barrels of crude oil per day by 2030. Staatsolie has a 20% participation right under the production sharing agreements signed with Apache, TotalEnergies, Exxon, and Petronas. A favorable regulatory environment including low royalties, competitive breakeven prices, and increased political stability all make Suriname an attractive destination for foreign energy companies. Regardless of the threat of peak oil demand, Suriname is shaping up as the next big oil boom in Latin America.

By Matthew Smith for Oilprice.com

Guyana seeks higher royalties, revamped terms for new oil contracts
August 18, 2021



Guyana aims to increase its oil royalties and revamp other contract terms as part of a new profit-sharing agreement (PSA) for future crude and gas projects now in its draft stage, the South American nation’s vice president said on Tuesday.

The tiny country has become one of the most desired oil exploration hot spots after an Exxon Mobil-led group (XOM.N), including U.S.-based Hess Corp (HES.N) and China’s CNOOC Ltd (0883.HK), discovered about 9 billion barrels of recoverable oil and gas off its coast.

Guyana expects this year to install an energy regulatory body and it will this month disclose the winner of a one-year contract to market of oil production from the prolific Stabroek block.

The new PSA will be tougher than that negotiated with the Exxon consortium and could be ready “within six months or so,” said Vice President Bharrat Jagdeo on the sidelines of the Offshore Technology Conference in Houston.

The government has been at odds with Exxon over flaring at its Liza project, the first one producing crude in Guyana after discoveries.

“We have made it clear that in any new PSA we negotiate for those blocks, the conditions will be very, very different than the ones from the Stabroek block,” Jagdeo said, including higher royalties and mechanisms for deducting costs from investment.

Previous Guyanese governments have been criticized for the lucrative terms provided to companies involved in the Stabroek block.

“All the deficiencies of this contract will be addressed,” he said.

The International Energy Agency, a group of oil-consuming nations, this spring said if governments wanted to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050, there would be no need for new fossil fuel developments. A United Nation panel last month also said burning fossil fuels causes climate warming.

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“We have been called to leave our oil in the ground,” he said. “We’ll develop our oil industry putting in place regulations for safe, low carbon operations.”