Sunday, August 29, 2021



Cardinal Richelieu and the ghosts of empires past
Spectacle at Kabul Airport will serve as a warning that it is dangerous to be a friend of the United States

By SPENGLER (DAVID P. GOLDMAN) 
AUGUST 16, 2021

Cardinal Richelieu at the Siege of La Rochelle, 1628, by Henri Paul Motte. Photo: Wikipedia

I nursed a Calvados at a café across from the Cathedral of Notre Dame, disconsolate after a vain attempt to gain access to the sewers of Paris. The Musée des Égouts de Paris, the Paris Sewers Museum, provided the only access to the secret passageways that led into the secret ossarium of the Carthusian monks where once I conjured the ghost of Cardinal Richelieu.

Under Richelieu, the evil genius of the Thirty Years’ War, France defeated the Austrian and Spanish Empires with twice its population and many times its wealth, killing two-fifths of the population of Central Europe.

But the museum was shut due to the pandemic, as was most of the city. I had no problem finding a table opposite the cathedral. But how to find the Cardinal? My assignation would have taken me past centuries-old brickwork through narrow winding staircases to the ancient rock until I reached the small chamber where the bones of the Carthusian dead sat arrayed in pyramids. But the path was blocked.

My reverie soon was interrupted. “I hope you haven’t forgotten me,” said a voice that sounded like a 78-rpm recording of Maurice Chevalier. I would have recognized it anywhere: It was the Cardinal! But I saw nothing
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Triple portrait of Cardinal Richelieux by Philippe de Champaigne, completed 1642. 
Photo: Wikipedia

“Do not be alarmed,” the Cardinal said. “If you will be so kind as to provide an appropriate libation, I shall become visible presently.”

“Waiter,” I cried, “A magnum of Chateau Petrus!”

“Oui, Monsieur,” the waiter stood to. “With one or two glasses?”

“A spittoon, if you please,” said I.

The waiter looked at me doubtfully.

“An empty ice bucket, then.”

Demanding and receiving payment in advance, he bustled off.

I poured the aromatic Bordeaux into the ice bucket and a gurgling sound presently arose. The old necromantic rite still worked. Starting with the tips of his boots, and rising through his legs, doublet, beard and hat, the Cardinal turned visible by degrees.

He still looked like the portrait by Philippe de Champaigne at the Musée des Beaux-Arts at Strasbourg, at least in profile – but when he turned towards me he seemed more like Charlton Heston in The Three Musketeers.

“Are you pressed for time?” I asked. In the ossarium the necromancy had kept him materialized for barely 10 minutes.

“I have the whole evening free,” the Cardinal replied.

“But how did you escape your old haunts?” I asked.

“Ghosts walk abroad tonight,” replied the Cardinal. “The ghosts of empires past.”

It was true; the twilight had descended suddenly, and at the next table I discerned the translucent outline of General Gamelin, the commander of the French forces when they fell to Germany in only six weeks of the spring of 1940. Napoleon the Third turned circles on roller skates.

The statue of Pope John Paul in front of the Cathedral changed into a figure that I took to be Nicias, the Athenian commander at the Syracuse debacle of 413 BCE

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Defeat of Nacias’s Athenians at Syracuse. 
Image: Encyclopedia of World History

Across the street, the shade of Anthony Eden, Britain’s prime minister during the Suez disaster, walked his dog Nipper. Admiral Rozhestvensky, the Russian commander at the Battle of the Tsushima Strait in 1905, sat motionless on a park bench.

“We all get a day pass when a great empire falls,” Richelieu said cheerfully. This was my fourth séance with his spirit and I had never before seen him in such an expansive mood.

“You are talking about the fall of Kabul,” said I.

“Bingueaux!,” said the shade. “It is America’s Tsushima Strait, its Syracuse, its Fall of France.”

The informality of our meeting on a café terrace emboldened me. Deep down in the Paris catacombs, I would have shown more reverence. “But Afghanistan is of no strategic importance to the United States,” I protested. “It’s a humiliation to be sure, but surely it looks worse than it is. The American public wrote off Afghanistan when it elected Donald Trump years ago.”

“You are as dense as always, Spengler,” Richelieu replied. “What use have you made of the advice I gave you at our last encounter? An intact empire can come back even from the greatest disaster. Russia recovered from its initial defeats in 1941 to crush Germany after Stalingrad. Rome raised new armies after Cannae and crushed the Carthaginians. The Protestants in the Thirty Years War – with more than a little help from me – arose from 14 years of Imperial victories to defeat Wallenstein at Lützen and turn the tide.”

“But why can’t America do the same now?” I demanded.

“What the fall of Kabul revealed is that the American military, and the political institutions behind it, are thoroughly rotten – as rotten as France in 1940. America set out to create a modern democracy out of a tribal society, an enterprise as likely to succeed as the attempt to breed a griffin by mating a lion with an eagle. It poured US$2 trillion into Afghanistan, or one hundred times the country’s gross domestic product. It paid Afghani politicians, generals and warlords to play-act at democracy in a revolting, silly masquerade.

“Whatever was not corrupt before America came in became corrupt in the maelstrom of American money. Meanwhile, American soldiers and bureaucrats made fortunes as consultants, contractors, sutlers and armorers to the dream palace of Afghan democracy.

“Because the entire project was a monstrous hoax to begin with, everyone associated with the project lied – lied about the state of Afghan government forces, lied about the disposition of the Taliban, lied about the robustness of supplies to Afghan troops, lied about their dependence on airpower.

“Afghan officials lied to their American paymasters, American commanders on the ground lied to their superiors and American generals lied to the politicians. The key to promotion, and to wealth, lay in perpetuating the ridiculous fiction that motivated the occupation of the country in the first place.

“Where did $2 trillion go? The Taliban offensive began in April after the Americans announced their intent to depart. No one fought for Afghanistan because there was no Afghanistan to fight for. Within weeks the Afghan army had no ammunition, no food and no air support. Whoever could steal from the Americans did so. The Afghanistan government collapsed in a matter of days because it was never there to begin with.

“Empires, mon ami, fall not because they suffer setbacks – even terrible ones – but because no one cares whether they survive or not. It is not only the Afghan army that panicked and ran before a rag-tag militia, but all of America’s critical institutions starting with the military itself.”

I listened in silence to the Cardinal’s diatribe. “What will happen now, Eminence?” I asked when he paused.
Afghans crowd the tarmac of the Kabul airport on August 16, 2021, to flee the country as the Taliban were in control of Afghanistan after President Ashraf Ghani fled the country and conceded the insurgents had won the 20-year war. Photo: AFP

“America has no strategy, no direction, no strategic purpose,” he said. “The revolting spectacle at the Kabul Airport will serve as a warning that it is dangerous to be a friend of the United States. China and Russia will pick up the pieces in Central Asia. India will quietly make its accommodation with China. The Germans will do whatever they must to avoid conflict with Russia. The Saudis will rely more on Russia for their own security – after all, Moscow hates the idea of a Muslim Brotherhood government in Riyadh as much as do the Saudi monarchs.”

The last rays of sunlight disappeared beneath the horizon. Rozhestvensky banged the table and demanded vodka. General Gamelin began to shout at Napoleon the Third. Nipper slipped his leash and Eden chased madly after him. Nicias jumped down from his pedestal and ran madly around the little plaza. Richelieu began to sing, “Thank heaven for little girls,” and the street filled suddenly with spooks – Thracians, Phrygians, Mauryas, Guptas, Hellenes, Babylonians – as well as generals and statesmen of defunct civilizations whose names are lost beneath the sands of time.

A terrible dread came over me, and I stood up to leave, but the crowd of defeated spirits was closing in around me.

I woke up just before dawn next to an empty Calvados bottle and a copy of Gibbon.
SCOTUS END'S EVICTION MORATORIUM
US rent hikes will explode consumer inflation in 2022

CPI reflects renters’ existing leases but new lease figures predict surging rent inflation as old leases expire

By DAVID P. GOLDMAN
AUGUST 27, 2021




NEW YORK – How come the shelter component of the US Consumer Price Index is rising at just 2% a year while all the private-sector gauges of rent inflation show rent hikes of close to 10%?

Shown in the Chart of the Day is a comparison of the Zillow Rent Index with the Consumer Price Index rent component. Shelter is two-fifths of the total index, so the question of whether inflation is “transitory” or not depends on rents.

This question has a simple answer: It takes the Bureau of Labor Statistics about a year to catch up with rent inflation. What the government reported as rent inflation in July reflects the economy of a year ago and more.

That’s because renters’ leases take a year or two to expire. The Zillow, Apartmentlist.com and CoreLogic reports reflect the average rent on a new lease, not the rent on leases signed in the past. As old leases expire and renters have to pay the higher market rate, rent inflation will surge.

The Fed can continue its Groucho Marx impression (“Who are you going to believe –me, or your own eyes?”) only until the inflation now in the pipeline shows up in the official numbers. Perhaps America’s monetary officials will find themselves at Dulles Airport this time next year surrounded by murderous mobs of renters waiting for rescue flights to Davos.

But the blame for all this will land on the desk of beleaguered President Biden, who has to answer to Americans who have seen their real incomes eroded by inflation during every one of the past twelve months.

The chart below shows that today’s reading of the Consumer Price Index for shelter lines up with past changes in the Zillow Rent Index. That is, past values of the Zillow Index correlate closely with today’s value of the Consumer Price Index, for the reasons I cited above.

The table shows the correlation between, respectively, the rent component of CPI and the Zillow Rent Index (in terms of year-on-year change), with lags. So the first bar (starting from the bottom and going up) is the correlation of this month’s value of each variable with the previous month’s; the next bar is the correlation of this month’s value with the value two months ago, etc.

What this cross-correlogram shows is that there is a very high correlation between this month’s CPI shelter number, and lagged values of the Zillow index going back 12 months.  


Using the lagged relationship between the shelter component of CPI and the Zillow Index, I forecast next year’s change in the CPI shelter index from this year’s change in the Zillow Index. The result is shown in the chart below:

The model forecast lines up quite well with ten years of history of the CPI shelter component. Projected into the middle of 2022, the model forecasts a 5% annual rate of increase in CPI shelter. That’s far in excess of the Federal Reserve’s threshold of pain.






‘Forever war’ benefiting Afghans? Follow the money

Whoever bought Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and other US defense stocks made a literal killing
INCLUDE 'CONTRACTORS'; HALLIBURTON, BECHTEL, SCHLUMBERGER,KKR, ETC.
AUGUST 23, 2021

A money changer shows afghani banknotes on a street in Kabul on June 30, 2021.
 Photo: AFP / Adel Berry

After 20 years and a staggering US$2.23 trillion spent in a “forever war” persistently spun as promoting democracy and benefiting the “Afghan people,” it’s legitimate to ask what the Empire of Chaos has to show for it.

The numbers are dire. Afghanistan remains the world’s 7th poorest nation: 47% of the population lives below the poverty line, according to the Asian Development Bank. No less than 75% of the – dissolved – Kabul government’s budget was coming from international aid. According to the World Bank, that aid was responsible for the turnover of 43% of the economy – one that was mired in massive government corruption.

According to the terms of the Washington-Taliban agreement signed in Doha in February 2020, the US should continue to fund Afghanistan during and after its withdrawal.

Now, with the Fall of Kabul and the imminent return of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, it’s becoming clear that applying financial soft power tactics may be even more deadly than a mere NATO occupation.

Washington has frozen $9.5 billion in Afghan Central Bank reserves and the International Monetary Fund has canceled its lending to Afghanistan, including $460 million that’s part of a Covid-19 relief program.

These dollars pay for government salaries and imports. Their absence will lead to the “Afghan people” hurting even more, a direct consequence of inevitable currency depreciation, rising food prices and inflation.

A corollary to this economic tragedy is a classic “take the money and run” caper: Former president Ashraf Ghani fled the country after allegedly packing four cars with $169 million in cash, and leaving $5 million on the tarmac of Kabul airport.

That’s according to two witnesses: one of his own bodyguards and the Afghan ambassador in Tajikistan; Ghani has denied the looting allegations.

Ghani’s plane was denied landing in Tajikistan and also Uzbekistan, proceeding to Oman until Ghani was welcomed in the UAE – very close to Dubai, a global Mecca of smuggling, money laundering and racketeering.

The Taliban have already stated that a new government and a new political and economic framework will be announced only after NATO troops are definitively out of the country next month.

The complex negotiations to form an “inclusive” government, as repeatedly promised by Taliban spokesmen, are de facto led on the non-Taliban side by two members of a council of three: former President Hamid Karzai and Ghani’s eternal rival, the leader of the High Council for National Reconciliation, Abdullah Abdullah. The third member, acting in the shadows, is warlord-turned-politician and two-time prime minister Gulbuddin Hekmatyar.

Abdullah Abdullah (right), chairman of the High Council for National Reconciliation (HCNR), and former president Hamid Karzai (2nd from right) meet with Abdul Rahman Mansour (second from left), the acting Taliban governor of Kabul, in Kabul on August 21, 2021. Photo: AFP /Taliban handout via EyePress News
KARZAI IS PASHTUN SO ARE THE TALIBAN

Karzai and Abdullah, both vastly experienced, are regarded by the Americans as “acceptable,” so that may go a long way in terms of facilitating future, official Western recognition of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan and restored multilateral institution funding.

Yet there are myriad problems including the very active role of Khalil Haqqani, who leads the Taliban Peace Council Commission while on a “terror watch list” and under UN sanctions. Not only is Haqqani in charge of Kabul’s security; he’s also side by side with Karzai and Abdullah in the discussions to form an inclusive government.

What makes the Taliban run


The Taliban have been operating outside of the Western banking system for two decades now. The bulk of their income comes from transit tax on trade routes (for instance, from Iran) and fuel levies. Profits from opium and heroin exports (domestic consumption not permitted) reportedly account for less than 10% of their income.

In countless villages across the deep Afghan countryside, the economy revolves around petty cash transactions and barter.

I received a copy of a high-level Pakistani academia-intelligence paper examining the challenges facing the new Afghan government.

The paper notes that “the standard route of development to be followed will be very pro-people. Taliban’s Islam is socialist. It has an aversion towards wealth being accumulated in fewer hands” – and, crucially, also an aversion to usury.

On the initial steps towards development projects, the paper expects them to come from Russian, Chinese, Turkish, Iranian and Pakistani companies – as well as a few government sectors. The Islamic Emirate “expects infrastructure development packages” at costs that are “affordable by the country’s existing GDP.”

Afghanistan’s nominal GDP in 2020 was $19.8 billion, according to World Bank figures.

New aid and investment packages are expected to come from Shanghai Cooperation Organization member nations (Russia, China, Pakistan) or SCO observers (Turkey and currently Iran – scheduled to become a full member at the SCO summit next month in Tajikistan). Inbuilt is the notion that Western recognition will be a Sisyphean task.

The paper admits that the Taliban have not had time to evaluate how the economy will be the key vector deciding Afghanistan’s future independence.

But this passage of the paper may hold the key: “In their consultations with the Chinese, they were advised to go slow and not rock the boat of the Western world system by talking too soon about state control of capitalism, interest-free economy, and de-linking from the IMF-based financial system. However, since the West has pulled back all the money from the Afghan exchequer, Afghanistan is likely to apply for short-term aid packages against their resource base.”

An Afghan currency exchanger counts money as dealers have been hit hard following the fall in value of the Afghani currency, leading to a rise in food prices in Kabul, Afghanistan, on July 16, 2021. 
Photo: AFP via Anadolu Agency / Haroon Sabawoon


IMF-NATO as brothers in arms

I asked Michael Hudson, an economics professor at the University of Missouri Kansas City and Peking University, how he would recommend the new government to act. He answered, “For one thing, embarrass the hell out of the IMF for acting as an arm of NATO.”

Hudson referred to a Wall Street Journal article written by a former IMF advisor now with the Atlantic Council as saying that “now, since recognition is frozen, banks all over the world will hesitate to do business with Kabul. This move provides the US with leverage to negotiate with the Taliban.”

So this may be going the Venezuela way – with the IMF not “recognizing” a new government for months and even years. And on the seizure of Afghan gold by the New York Fed – actually a collection of private banks – we see echoes of the looting of Libya’s and seizure of Venezuela’s gold.

Hudson sees all of the above as “an abuse of the international monetary system – which is supposed to be a public utility – as an arm of NATO run by the US. IMF behavior, especially regarding the new drawing rights, should be presented as a litmus test” for the viability of a Taliban-led Afghanistan.

Hudson is now working on a book about the collapse of antiquity. His research led him to find Cicero, in In Favor of the Manilian Law (Pro Lege Manilia), writing about Pompeus’s military campaign in Asia and its effects on the provinces in a passage that perfectly applies to the “forever war” in Afghanistan:

“Words cannot express, gentlemen, how bitterly hated we are among foreign nations because of the wanton and outrageous conduct of the men whom in recent years we have sent to govern them. For, in those countries, what temple do you suppose had been held sacred by our officers, what state inviolable, what home sufficiently guarded by its closed doors? Why, they look about for rich and flourishing cities that they may find an occasion for a war against them to satisfy their lust for plunder.”

Switching from the classics to a more pedestrian level, WikiLeaks has been replaying a sort of Afghanistan Greatest Hits , reminding public opinion, for instance, that as far back as 2008 there was already “no pre-defined end date” for the “forever war.”

Yet the most concise assessment may have come from Julian Assange himself:

“The goal is to use Afghanistan to wash money out of the tax bases of the US and Europe through Afghanistan and back into the hands of a transnational security elite. The goal is an endless war, not a successful war.”

The “forever war” may have been a disaster for the bombed, invaded and impoverished “Afghan people,” but it was an unmitigated success for what Ray McGovern so memorably defines as the MICIMATT (Military-Industrial-Counter-Intelligence-Media-Academia-Think Tank) complex. Anyone who bought stocks of Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Raytheon and the rest of that crowd made – literally – a killing.

Facts are indeed dire. Barack Obama – who presided over a hefty Afghan “kill list” – throws a birthday party and invites the woke nouveaux riches. Julian Assange suffers psychological torture imprisoned in Belmarsh. And Ashraf Ghani mulls how to spend $169 million in the Dubai rackets, funds some say were duly stolen from the “Afghan people.”





‘Fight to the death’ looms in Panjshir Valley
Ahmad Massoud, leader of the defiant National Resistance Front, claims to have some 9,000 fighters
AUGUST 26, 2021

The Panjshir Valley, in the Hindu Kush mountains north of Kabul, has long been the heart of military resistance in Afghanistan and looks like it is becoming the centre of a gathering of “resistance” forces against Taliban rule. Credit: AFP photo.

It’s only a matter of when the attack comes.

And when it does it could be the greatest battle, and possibly the bloodiest, that Afghanistan has ever seen.

You see, thirty-three of Afghanistan’s thirty-four provinces fell to the Taliban over the span of two weeks in early August.

But one region, has not.

The sole area that has resisted Taliban encroachment has been the province of Panjshir, located in a valley at the foot of the Hindu Kush mountains.

The valley’s name translates to “five lions,” although other translations claim its name may refer to five mountain peaks located down the length of the valley.

Led by Ahmad Massoud, the leader of the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan, he claims to have some 9,000 available fighters, as well as hundreds of military vehicles and five helicopters, Trevor Filseth of The National Interest reported.

And while Panjshir’s defenders have been strengthened by the arrival of thousands of soldiers from the now-defunct Afghan National Army, Massoud’s position appears to be militarily indefensible, analysts say.

The valley is fully surrounded by Taliban territory and they are greatly outnumbered.

The 32-year-old Massoud, who has dreams of following in his “father’s footsteps,” said his group is pushing for a new system of government in Afghanistan — an open and democratic system — but is prepared to fight if needed.

Without a comprehensive power-sharing agreement, Massoud has warned that a new and bloody civil war is inevitable.

“We confronted the Soviet Union, and we will be able to confront the Taliban,” a defiant Massoud told the Dubai-based Al Arabiya television channel.

While Taliban forces rolled over the country easily in just a couple weeks, they will likely encounter stiff, perhaps even fanatical, resistance.

An Agence France-Presse correspondent reported seeing “machine gun nests, mortars and surveillance posts fortified with sandbags” set up by the National Resistance Front to defend its positions in the Panjshir Valley.

In an op-ed published Wednesday in The Washington Post, Massoud said “America can still be a great arsenal of democracy” by supporting his fighters.

He said he has the forces to mount an effective resistance, but called on the United States to supply arms and ammunition to his militia.

“I write from the Panjshir Valley today, ready to follow in my father’s footsteps, with mujahideen fighters who are prepared to once again take on the Taliban,” he said.

His father Ahmad Shah Massoud, known as the Lion of Panjshir, led the strongest resistance against the Taliban from his stronghold in the valley northeast of Kabul until his assassination two days before Sept. 11, 2001.

Famed for its natural defences, the redoubt tucked into the Hindu Kush mountains never fell to the Taliban during the civil war of the 1990s, nor was it conquered by the Soviets a decade earlier, and is now Afghanistan’s last remaining holdout.
“I write from the Panjshir Valley today, ready to follow in my father’s footsteps, with mujahideen fighters who are prepared to once again take on the Taliban,” wrote Ahmad Massoud in an op-ed published in the Washington Post. Credit: AFP photo.

T.E. Lawrence, the master of hit-and-run guerrilla warfare, would have been impressed.

The elder Massoud built his formidable reputation by holding out against repeated Soviet offensives in the 1980s, using his wits and the high mountain ranges.

He inflicted devastating ambushes on Russian supply convoys, even earning a grudging respect from several Soviet generals.

He would also warn the West about the threat of terrorism from al-Qaeda.

But while Massoud’s famous father could rely upon overland supply lines into Tajikistan, today, Ahmad Massoud has no method of resupplying except flights over Taliban territory.

The younger Massoud also has little military experience, though he was educated at the Royal Military College at Sandhurst in Britain and King’s College, London, and earned a degree in war studies before returning to Afghanistan in 2016.

If and when, the Taliban launch a major offensive to take the region — and they will if talks do not succeed — they will also come up against many of the nation’s hardened, US-trained special-forces units, which did much of the hardest fighting against the Taliban during the conflict.

None of these guys are going to be laying down their arms anytime soon, for the basic reason they will be tortured and executed.

Sources say they are fierce, and will fight to the death if they have to.

As former UK prime minister Tony Blair said, it’s one thing to take Afghanistan, quite another to rule it.

Politically, Panjshir’s position was also strengthened with the arrival of Afghanistan’s former vice president, Amrullah Saleh, who has since declared himself as the nation’s interim leader following the flight of President Ashraf Ghani to the United Arab Emirates.

In the following days, other Afghan leaders, such as Defense Minister Bismillah Khan and Ahmad Zia Massoud, Massoud’s uncle and a long-time leader within Panjshir, have gone to the valley.

Notorious Afghan warlord Abdul Rashid Dostum is also rumored to be present.

At 67, the greying Uzbek militia leader is not quite in the fighting shape of his youth — he has just returned from medical treatment in Turkey — but his desire to be on the frontline does not appear to have dimmed.

While some experts on Afghanistan have highlighted potential tensions between the leaders, Saleh and Massoud appear to be cooperating, and both men have resolved not to surrender to the Taliban.

“The Taliban will not last long if it continues on this path,” Massoud said, in a report from the UK’s Daily Mail.

In the face of superior forces and potential annihilation, Massoud spat: “We are ready to defend Afghanistan and we warn of a bloodshed.”

Inspired by past victories against the Soviets and the Taliban, Panjshiri soldiers have also spoken in recent days about “a fight to the death.”

But this time, the Taliban will be fully armed with new weapons secured from surrendering Afghan forces — guns, ammo, vehicles, helicopters and more.

Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid confirmed that hundreds of Taliban fighters had traveled to Panjshir to suppress the anti-Taliban resistance with force, but did not offer any further details.

Both the Panjshir resistance and the Taliban initially committed to talks regarding Afghanistan’s future political system and the valley’s status, but these talks appear to have broken down.

While an early attempt to capture the province appeared to have been repelled by Massoud’s forces, with a loss of several hundred Taliban fighters, the Taliban remains in control of the surrounding areas, and appears to have retaken three villages near the entrance to the valley, according to BBC’s Yalda Hakim.

‘‘We’re waiting for some opportunity, some support,” Hamid Saifi, a former colonel in the Afghan National Army, and now a commander in Massoud’s resistance, told the New York Times by phone.

“Maybe some countries will be ready for this great work. So far, all countries we talked to are quiet. America, Europe, China, Russia, all of them are quiet.’’

Sources: The Daily Mail, The National Interest, BBC News, Hindustan Times, The Washington Post, The New York Times, Al Arabiya, Agence France-Presse, Al Jazeera, France 24
BEST DAMNED KILLING MACHINE EVER

OBITUARY

Famed A-10 Warthog pioneer passes away
Pierre Spey was part of the Pentagon's 'Fighter Mafia' and a long-time opponent of the not-so-stealthy F-35
AUGUST 24, 2021
Print
The A-10 Warthog has until recently been a mainstay of the US Air Force. 
Photo: US Air Force

Pierre Spey, one of the most interesting and controversial aircraft designers and a Pentagon nemesis, died this week at the age of 83. Spey was responsible for the design of the A-10 close support fighter and in part for the F-16 design.

And he was a longtime opponent of the super-expensive stealthy F-35.


Spey was born in 1937 in Nice, France. His parents, both Jewish, escaped the coming holocaust and made their way to the United States. Spey was admitted to Yale University at the age of 14 and later studied at Cornell University. He studied aeronautical engineering, mathematical statistics and operations research.

Starting out at Grumman Aircraft (where the A-10 was eventually built), he went to the Pentagon where he was part of what became known as the “Fighter Mafia” – teaming with John Boyd and Thomas P Christie. Robert Coram in his book on John Boyd has a good deal to say about Spey and Christie.

After his Pentagon career, Spey became a record producer focused on jazz. Some of his recordings were highly praised. The equipment for the recording studio was put together by Spey in his home in suburban Maryland, near Washington DC.

His recording with the Addicts Rehabilitation Center Choir singing Walk With Me appears in Kanye West’s 2004 hit Jesus Walks.

Spey was a highly successful Air Force and Pentagon infighter. Through his influence, the A-10 was chosen over the objections of Air Force brass and Pentagon leaders.

The A-10 is a unique close air support and ground attack aircraft that the US Air Force has been trying to get rid of for decades. Unfortunately for the Air Force, the A-10 has performed brilliantly in the two Iraq wars and in Afghanistan.

The A-10 was called the Warthog because from the outside it is an ugly aircraft. But the Warthog designation was also a term of affection from the pilots who flew the aircraft.
A 30mm cannon from an A-10 sits to the side as an aircraft mechanic works an A-10 Thunderbolt Warthog on December 20, 2017, at Hill Air Force base in Ogden, Utah. 
Photo: AFP / George Frey / Getty Images

Tom Christie said: “He was one of the most detested people by the United States Air Force because he was challenging a lot of sacred programs and strategies.”

The A-10 was originally designed to support NATO if there was a Soviet invasion of Europe. It was designed to knock out Russian armor, radars and command centers and support allied troops against Warsaw Pact forces.

The A-10 features a very unique design. It has two engines, mounted high on the upper rear which are designed to reduce the heat signature that infrared anti-aircraft missiles seek. It has self-sealing foamed fuel tanks that can take ground fire hits and not explode or burn and a titanium cocoon protecting the pilot.

The aircraft design allows the fighter to operate at low speeds and to be maneuverable. It carries a powerful GAU-8, 30mm hydraulically driven seven-barrel Gatling-style autocannon that can fire 3,900 rounds per minute.

It also carries Maverick (AGM-65) air-to-ground TV-guided missiles and bombs. In Operation Desert Storm in 1991, A-10s destroyed more than 900 Iraqi tanks, 2,000 other military vehicles and 1,200 artillery pieces.

On a single day, A-10s destroyed 65 Iraqi, mainly Russian-built heavy battle tanks (T-62s and T-72s).


In Afghanistan, the A-10 was primarily engaged in providing close air support against the Taliban and protecting US and Afghan troops. Most of the time this involved ferreting out Taliban fighters ensconced in mountainous areas surrounding friendly forces rather than performing an anti-armor role. Again the A-10 was tremendously successful.


Even so, the Air Force continues to try and rid itself of the A-10 and replace it with the F-35, something Spey believed was a mistake. The F-35 in a close support role, if it ever was used that way, would be extremely vulnerable to ground fire and in that scenario its stealth capability would be of no value.


Spey considered stealth as a scam because he said Russian radars (which China has copied) using longer-wave frequencies would be able to detect the F-35 and shoot them down. Spey also criticized the F-35 because it is not maneuverable, can’t fly slow and only carries a small weapons load, mostly because the F-35 to retain its stealthiness must carry weapons internally.

  
A US Air Force Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning not-so-stealth fighter. 
Photo: AFP / Yichuan Cao / NurPhoto

Moreover, the original F-35 did not have a gun system – it was put on the aircraft later after much criticism. Of course, the F-35 carries a smaller ammunition load and smaller caliber than the A-10, has a less effective range and isn’t of any use in ground support if the aircraft has to stay far from the conflicted area for safety reasons.

The F-35 is extremely expensive to operate and hard to maintain. The A-10 is far cheaper to operate and easy to maintain even at remote locations (something that can’t be done with the F-35).

Acquisition costs also are radically different. In current-day dollars, the A-10 would cost US$9.3 million (it is no longer manufactured and the plant where it was made is closed). By contrast, the F-35 costs in excess of $78 million and its sustainment costs could bleed the Air Force budget.


In Spey’s view, the F-35 is not a combat survivable aircraft because it can’t really provide close support and because its lack of maneuverability means it wouldn’t survive in any close encounter with enemy aircraft.

By contrast, the A-10 was built to take hits and keep flying. A number of A-10s were shot up in the Iraqi conflicts, but were able to return to base.

In the latest Biden-backed budget, 43 A-10s will be scrapped if the budget is approved by Congress.

American soldiers stand in front of an A-10 Thunderbolt at Incirlik Air Base in Adana, Turkey.
 Photo: AFP / Ozge Elif Kizil / Anadolu Agency

A fitting tribute to Spey would be to give the 43 A-10s the Pentagon wants to scrap to Taiwan.

The A-10 would be a superb aircraft to destroy any attempt by China to launch an invasion of Taiwan, since the aircraft could slice up Chinese landing craft and destroy any armor that the Chinese might be able to get onto the island in an attack.

Supported by upgraded and new F-16s that can challenge China’s top combat aircraft, Taiwan would have a fighting chance to stop even a powerful China from a successful attack.

  




 SPACE RACE 2.0

China will study how to build a massive spacecraft over a half mile long

The Chinese government is inviting scientists to help build an enormous, 1 kilometer (0.6 miles) long spacecraft that it wants to construct in orbit. The wild concept is to build a giant orbiting craft the size of 10 city blocks from components sent up by rockets one piece at a time.

The concept is outlined in a project document from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (in the attachment titled “Guide for major projects of the Ministry of Mathematical Sciences”), which describes how the organization is looking for proposals for constructing an “ultra-large spacecraft with a size of one kilometer,” saying this goal represents “a major strategic aerospace equipment for the future use of space resources, exploration of the mysteries of the universe, and long-term living in orbit.”


The Long March-2F rocket that will launch three Chinese astronauts to a new space station in the country’s first crewed launch in five years.STR/Getty Images

The size and mass of such a spacecraft would obviously be huge, which would make it impossible to build and launch in one piece. Instead, the idea would be to design and construct modules that could each be launched individually and then assembled in orbit. Therefore the project is looking for two key factors: Firstly, a lightweight design to keep the number of required launches as low as possible, and secondly, a smart design that can be assembled easily in space.

This will be a five-year project to develop the concept, according to the South China Morning Post, and five projects will be selected for development at 15 million yuan ($2.3 million U.S.) each. This amount of funding presumably represents just the first step in researching the concept, as it is nowhere near enough to actually build and launch a spacecraft — even a tiny one. It must be for preliminary research only, to see whether such a concept is even feasible.

China has stepped into space exploration in a big way in recent years. In addition to its Tianwen-1 mission to Mars, which includes a rover that China landed successfully on Mars for the first time and which recently had its mission extended, there’s also its Chang’e 4 mission to the far side of the moon which brought home a sample of lunar rock for the first time in over 40 years. And perhaps most significantly, there is China’s new space station which had its first module put into orbit earlier this year, and which has already seen its first cargo mission and two spacewalks

China wants to build a kilometer-sized starship


While major technical hurdles stand in the way, an extra-large spacecraft could have broad applications


By DAVE MAKICHUK

AUGUST 28, 2021

An artist's rendition of what a giant-sized space station might look like in the future. Credit: Courtesy, SpaceShips Galore.


In an effort to galvanize NASA’s return to the forefront, then-US Vice President Mike Pence sought to re-create the 1960s Cold War space race, when the United States beat the Soviet Union to the lunar surface, The Washington Post reported.

But this time the role of rival was played not by the Soviet Union, but by China, which Pence warned was trying “to seize the lunar strategic high ground.”

Bill Nelson, President Biden’s new NASA administrator, has carried on that hawkish rhetoric, casting China as “a very aggressive competitor” that has big ambitions in space and is challenging America’s leadership.

“Watch the Chinese,” he recently warned.

Watch them, indeed.

They have now announced one of the most ambitious space projects in human history — a plan to build a kilometer-level starship at least be 10 times the length of the International Space Station (ISS) — news that will likely reverberate with NASA and the Pentagon, The Global Times reported.

Experts say that a number of major technical and management hurdles stand in the way, but the in-orbit assembly of an extra-large spacecraft could have broad applications, such as the building of a space power plant that will generate electricity for the planet.

China is studying the project as part of its 14th Five-Year Plan (2021-25) period, which is expected to become a major strategic vehicle for its future use of space resources, deep-space explorations and long-term human stays in outer space.

As soon as the news came out, it lit up the Chinese internet, especially among space sci-fi fans. Some thrilled netizens jokingly compared it to the “starships” in movies and TV series, such as Deep Space Nine.

However, space experts say that there will be a great deal of challenges that must be overcome, apart from the huge demand for manpower and resources, considering the tremendous size and complexity of the spacecraft.

“Take the ISS as an example. Due to thrust limitations of launching vehicles, it also adopted the approach to assemble the parts in-orbit, which were delivered in separate spaceflights over a number of years,” Pang Zhihao, a Beijing-based space expert and researcher from the China Academy of Space Technology, told the Global Times.

Astronauts Tang Hongbo, from left, Nie Haisheng and Liu Boming wave during a departure ceremony before boarding the Shenzhou-12 spacecraft on a Long March-2F carrier rocket at the Jiuquan Satellite Launch Centre in the Gobi desert.
 [Greg Baker/AFP photo]

“It took the ISS 12 years — from 1998 to 2010 — to finally complete the construction. And by the time of completion, the first module that was launched more than a decade prior had almost reached its lifespan.

“It can be speculated that the kilometer-level spacecraft will take even longer to build, and will have much higher requirements for the lifespan of its core components, and the ability to replace components flexibly,” he added.

Researchers will be tasked to minimize the weight of the modules and the number of launches to reduce construction costs, Pang said.

They also must ensure the controllability of the overall structure, so that attitude drifts, deformation and vibration can be limited during in-orbit assembly.

The complexity not only rests on technical issues, but also the overall planning and management of the project, he added, and it must also consider the threats of space debris.

But while the difficulties to construct such a spacecraft are great, experts say it has massive scientific and military potential.

For example, it could be used for building a space power plant, enabling a large-scale all-weather power generation by transferring solar power to electricity and beaming it down to Earth.

China has also made breakthroughs in developing its new super-heavy-lift carrier rocket, rolling out the country’s first 9.5-meter-diameter rocket tank bottom and liquid booster engine earlier this month.

The launch vehicle may point to the Long March 9 carrier rocket, which will be used for future crewed lunar missions, deep space exploration and space infrastructure, Wang Ya’nan, editor-in-chief of Aerospace Knowledge magazine, told the Global Times.

China launched the core of its space station in April, and sent three astronauts up in June.

But although the space station probably won’t be complete until late 2022, there is already a long queue of experiments from across the world waiting to go up, Nature.com reported.

Scientists say that the China Manned Space Agency (CMSA) has tentatively approved more than 1,000 experiments, several of which have already been launched.

A replica of a core module of the Chinese Space Station is displayed at Airshow China 2018 (Photo/Courtesy of China Aerospace Science and Technology Corporation)

Before April, the International Space Station (ISS) was the only space laboratory in orbit, and many researchers say Tiangong (or “heavenly palace”) is a welcome addition for astronomical and Earth observation, and for studying how microgravity and cosmic radiation affect phenomena such as bacterial growth and fluid mixing.

However, others argue that crewed space stations are costly, and serve more of a political than a scientific purpose.

“Increased scientific access to space is of scientific benefit globally, no matter who builds and operates platforms,” says Julie Robinson, chief scientist for human exploration and operations at NASA Headquarters in Washington DC.

“We need more space stations, because one space station is definitely not enough,” adds Agnieszka Pollo, an astrophysicist at the National Centre for Nuclear Research in Warsaw who is part of a team sending an experiment to study Y-ray bursts.

Meanwhile, don’t look for any international cooperation any time soon.

NASA has been barred by law since 2011 from partnering with China — no Chinese astronaut has ever been aboard the ISS, which has been host to astronauts from nearly 20 nations, Washington Post reported.

There is no prospect of that changing anytime soon in a Washington where China is seen as a fierce competitor in a wide range of technological endeavors, from quantum computers to the rollout of 5G.

That is especially true for space, because the technologies used in space also are used for national defense, said Scott Kennedy, an analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“These deep concerns about China as a military competitor forestalls cooperation in dual-use technologies, and there are no technologies used in space that aren’t dual-use,” he said.

US and Chinese cooperation in space, he said, would require the kind of detente that the US and Soviet Union achieved during the Cold War.

“But we are very far from that.”

Sources: The Global Times, The Washington Post, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Nature.com, China Academy of Space Technology
China’s Sinopec, CNPC Discover More Oil, Natural Gas Resources

BY JAMISON COCKLIN
August 27, 2021

China Petroleum & Chemical Corp., aka Sinopec, has reportedly announced another oil and natural gas discovery in the Tarim Basin.



The state-owned company said on Chinese social media that it had discovered 100 million tons of oil and gas resources in the legacy-producing region, according to Reuters. That’s roughly the equivalent of 733 million bbl of oil.

An exploration well drilled in the field in Northwest China produced about 6,315 b/d of oil and 20.8 MMcf/d of natural gas, the company said. No further details were provided.

The Xinhua news agency also reported that another state-owned operator, China National Petroleum Corp. (CNPC), made an unconventional oil discovery in the Daqing oilfield in Northern China. Xinhua said CNPC estimated 1.27 billion tons, or 9.3 million bbl, of resources.

The Daqing field has long been a major source of China’s crude output. However, the national oil company (NOC) has boosted its efforts to discover unconventional resources in the Songliao Basin where Daqing is located.

The news follows another announcement from Sinopec earlier in August that it’s booked more unconventional natural gas reserves in the Sichuan Basin. In June, CNPC also said it had an additional oil and gas discovery in the Tarim.

China is the world’s top crude importer. It’s also poised to surpass Japan this year as the world’s largest liquefied natural gas importer.

As a result, the Chinese government in 2018 called on its NOCs to start raising domestic output levels. The country also has opened to foreign companies to develop natural gas to increase domestic supplies.

China has invested in technically challenging hydrocarbon areas such as shale and tight gas. Since unconventional resources are deeper and more tectonically fractured in China, operators have faced higher drilling costs and development challenges.

© 2021 Natural Gas Intelligence. All rights reserved.


Dalit Scientists Face Barriers in India’s Top Science Institutes

Despite decades-old inclusion policies, Dalits are systematically underrepresented in science institutes in India. Why?



Top: Dalit researcher Rajendra Sonkawade has advocated for the rights of lower-caste scientists like himself. But he believes his advocacy has hampered his career. “I paid the price for speaking up,” Sonkawade said.
Visual: Ankur Paliwal for Undark

BY ANKUR PALIWAL
07.26.2021

LONG READ


IN THE SUMMER OF 1976, 26-year-old Raosaheb Kale entered the School of Life Sciences at New Delhi’s Jawaharlal Nehru University, alongside about 34 other incoming doctoral students. At the time, a committee of teachers at the school would review the students’ records and assign each to a Ph.D. supervisor to mentor them through graduate school. When the school posted the list of assignments, Kale scanned the piece of paper: Every single student, he said, had been matched with a supervisor, except for him.

“Nobody wanted to take me,” recalled Kale, who is now 71, sitting on his apartment’s balcony in Pune, in western India.

Kale knew why his name was missing: In his class, he was the only one from the Dalit community — formerly known as the untouchables. The teachers didn’t want to supervise Dalits, Kale said, because they perceived that Dalits “won’t perform well.”

Historically, Dalits were considered so low that they fell outside the caste system, a rigid social hierarchy described in ancient Hindu legal texts. Brahmins (priests) occupied the top of the pyramid, followed by the Kshatriyas (warriors), Vaishyas (traders), and then Shudras (artisans) at the bottom. Today, caste, which is defined by family of origin, remains an ever-present reality in Indian culture, and functions somewhat similarly to race in America.

Growing up in the drought-prone Beed district of western India, Kale shared a mud-walled, tin-roofed house with his parents and four younger siblings. Like other Dalits, his parents were unable to own land and barred from entering temples. In his village, Dalits were assigned various jobs such as sweeping streets, supplying firewood, delivering messages, and picking cotton. In return, they received grains, leftover food, or, on very rare occasions, one rupee for a day’s labor — well below a livable wage.


When Raosaheb Kale, a member of the Dalit caste, entered graduate school in the 1970s, he was the only student the school did not match with a Ph.D. supervisor. “Nobody wanted to take me,” Kale said. In Indian culture today, caste, which is defined by family of origin, functions similarly to race in America. 
Visual: Ankur Paliwal for Undark

The village was peaceful as long as Dalits followed the Hindu caste hierarchy. “You know your limits,” Kale recalled. “The moment lower caste crosses the limit, ignorantly or otherwise,” anything can happen, he said. Once, when Kale was a kid, he recalled holding the hand of a higher-caste boy to cross a river in the village. A furor erupted. An older upper-caste person from the village warned parents of both boys that such close contact should never happen again.

Against staggering odds, Kale excelled in academic science. He fought his way through the upper-caste dominated School of Life Sciences, became its dean, and received a prestigious award for his contributions to radiation and cancer biology research. In 2014, he completed his tenure in one of the top academic posts — vice chancellor of a university — in India.

But his story remains rare. In 2011, around 17 percent of India’s population, which now totals over 1.3 billion people, were Dalits, who are officially referred to as “Scheduled Castes” in government records. Caste discrimination is illegal, and India’s reservation policy — a form of affirmative action that has been around since 1950 — currently mandates that 15 percent of students and staff at government research and education institutes, with some exceptions, come from the Dalit community. But records obtained by Undark under India’s Right to Information Act from some of the country’s flagship scientific institutions, along with data from government reports and student groups, reveal a different picture.

At the elite Indian Institutes of Technology in Delhi, Mumbai, Kanpur, Kharagpur, and Madras, the proportion of Dalit researchers admitted to doctoral programs ranged from 6 percent (at IIT Delhi) to 14 percent (at IIT Kharagpur) in 2019, the most recent year obtained by Undark. At the Indian Institute of Science, or IISc, in Bengaluru, 12 percent of researchers admitted to doctoral programs in 2020 were Dalits. And at the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research — a major government research institution — of the 33 laboratories that responded to Undark’s data requests, just 12 met the 15 percent threshold.

The numbers are even lower among senior academics. IIT Bombay, in Mumbai, and IIT Delhi had no Dalit professors at all in 2020 — compared with 324 and 218 professors, respectively, in the General Category, which includes upper-caste Hindus and some members of religious minorities, like Muslims. (In India, the term “professor” refers to senior-ranking positions and does not include assistant or associate professors.) IISc had two Dalit professors and 205 General Category professors in 2020. None of the department heads at IISc were Dalit last year. And five out of the seven science schools of Jawaharlal Nehru University did not have a single Dalit professor.


“You know your limits,” Kale recalled. “The moment lower caste crosses the limit, ignorantly or otherwise,” anything can happen, he said.

Similar disparities exist in other professions in India; Dalits face continued discrimination and violence from upper-caste people across the country. But researchers who study casteism in science say that even as Dalits have mobilized for their rights, they have encountered distinctive barriers in scientific institutions, which remain especially resistant to reservation policies and other reforms. At a time of growing attention to inequities in global science, those barriers leave Dalits systematically underrepresented in the major research and academic institutes of the world’s largest democracy.

Undark sent repeated interview requests to the directors of IISc and five leading IITs. Only one responded, but declined to comment. In interviews, some upper-caste researchers said that finding qualified Dalit researchers can be difficult. “When you’d sit in the interview board, you will find out yourself,” said Umesh Kulshrestha, the dean of Jawaharlal Nehru University’s School of Environmental Sciences, who is upper caste. Some Dalit candidates “can’t answer even easy questions,” he said, later adding that he has “some good quality Dalit researchers” in the school. Several other upper-caste researchers simply denied that caste prejudice was common in Indian science, saying that they didn’t believe in caste.

But interviews with Dalit scientists and scholars show a different picture — one in which systematic discrimination, institutional barriers, and frequent humiliation make it difficult to thrive at every step of their training.

KALE WAS BORN in 1950 — three years after India became free from British rule, and the same year India’s constitution came into force. That constitution abolished untouchability and declared caste discrimination illegal. It also introduced reservation policies in public sector jobs, politics, and education for marginalized communities, including Dalits and Indigenous groups known as Adivasis. By the 1970s, the government had settled on the 15 percent quota for Dalits that’s still in place today.

Caste discrimination, however, continued. Sitting on his balcony in Pune, Kale described how casteism followed him on his path to higher education. As a small child, he studied in a public school with only one teacher. When the teacher died of cholera, the school closed. Kale walked to a nearby village every other Sunday to meet the headmaster of a bigger school there and ask when he’d get a new instructor. Eventually, the headmaster, who was Dalit, invited Kale to join his school and stay with him. “He really treated me like his son,” said Kale. He would later dedicate his Ph.D. thesis to the headmaster.

When Kale was in the sixth grade, and attending a new school, a teacher invited him over to take special classes at his home. When Kale arrived, the teacher’s wife was going to offer him some food in a “tasla” — an iron pan that laborers use to carry mud — instead of a plate. Kale refused both the meal and the classes.

But he kept getting grades so good that he eventually won admission to Milind College of Science — part of a group of colleges founded by Bhimrao Ramji Ambedkar, a Dalit leader and lawyer who is sometimes compared to Martin Luther King Jr.


In the late 1940s, a couple of years before Milind College opened, the Indian government began planning to set up a network of exclusive technical institutes to train engineers and scientists who would help build a new India. The first branch of the Indian Institute of Technology, or IIT, opened in 1951 near Kharagpur, and the government soon termed the schools “institutions of national importance.” At the time, a government committee described advanced scientific research as the work of a “few men of high caliber,” the Harvard University anthropologist Ajantha Subramanian writes in “The Caste of Merit,” a study of caste and engineering education in India. IITs were highly selective, and upper-caste Indians quickly dominated their ranks, despite the official reservation policies.

In the early 1970s, when Kale was applying to graduate schools, he didn’t seriously consider IITs, which he said looked like “closed spaces.” Instead, he enrolled in Marathwada University, in Maharashtra state. Part of a wave of new, more democratic state institutions, the university had become a fertile ground for student movements. (It has since been renamed in honor of Ambedkar.) Kale decided to study chemistry, partly because he thought that could get him a job as a chemical engineer in the fast-industrializing country. As the eldest sibling, Kale wanted to support his family as soon as possible. But at same time, he said, “I had an internal desire to get as much education as I can and the highest honorable degree.” So instead of heading straight into the workforce, he began considering doctoral programs.

Kale used some of his saved-up scholarship money to buy a train ticket to New Delhi, where he would take the Ph.D. entrance exam for Jawaharlal Nehru University, or JNU, which attracted students for its interdisciplinary approach, and where Kale’s battle against institutional casteism would begin.

AFEW WEEKS after the JNU faculty failed to match Kale with a Ph.D. supervisor, they offered him a mentor in a different field from the one he hoped to study. He began contemplating what to do next. He learned that Araga Ramesha Rao, a radiation biology researcher, had worked at a cancer research institute in Mumbai, a field he wanted to pursue. Kale managed to arrange a meeting. After several discussions Rao, who has since died, agreed to supervise the aspiring scientist. He did so, Kale said, despite the advice of an upper-caste colleague who urged Rao to avoid mentoring a Dalit student. (Kale was careful to clarify that various upper-caste colleagues, like Rao, supported him throughout the years.)

Alok Bhattacharya, who later joined the school as an associate professor, and belongs to an upper caste, said experiences like Kale’s are not uncommon, and that the only form of discrimination he has observed in his career is that the “lower caste” students faced difficulty in getting a supervisor: “They are the last ones to be picked.”

Kale completed his Ph.D. in 1980, and the school hired him as an assistant professor the next year. But Kale had to wait 17 years to become a professor — much slower than some of his upper-caste peers.


RELATED For India’s Caste-Based Sewer Cleaners: Robots?

Kulshrestha, the dean of the School of Environmental Sciences at JNU, and Pawan Dhar, a professor and former dean of the School of Biotechnology, both said that delays in promotions are common for researchers, irrespective of caste. But Govardhan Wankhede, a Dalit sociologist and former dean of the School of Education at the Mumbai-based Tata Institute of Social Sciences, believes that Dalits tend to face more delays, something he said he has experienced firsthand. According to Dhar, there’s little data analysis on caste-based discrimination in promotions — a gap, he said, that he hopes future research will address.

As Kale was waiting on his promotion, he was also waiting to get a lab to advance his research on making radiation therapy more effective in cancer treatment. While administrators gave most of his upper-caste peers their own laboratory space, Kale said, he worked out of a small corner office with broken furniture. When a senior professor vacated his lab to move to a bigger one, Kale declared the space his own. The ploy worked. “You have to have decency for some time, but not beyond certain limit. If it is your right, you have to snatch it,” he said. “We cannot wait.”

Over the years, Kale held several positions, including dean of students and head of the equal opportunity office at JNU. He would invite Dalit students from his and nearby villages to stay with him, helping them navigate the admissions process for universities. Kale also became the chairperson of the Indian Institute of Dalit Studies in New Delhi, and served on a government committee on Dalit and Adivasi reservation in universities.

Despite his success, all through his career, Kale said, he has feared just one thing — making mistakes. He and several Dalit researchers described experiencing a constant internal pressure to prove themselves in institutions dominated by upper-caste researchers who think Dalits don’t deserve to be there. “If I do a mistake, it is not my mistake,” said Kale. Instead, he said, it would be labeled “the mistake of the community.”

IN THE LATE 1990s, when Kale became a professor at JNU, he sat on a committee to select junior researchers at the Nuclear Science Center, about a mile away from the university in New Delhi. Among the candidates was a Dalit researcher named Rajendra Sonkawade. “He was the best among the lot,” recalled Kale. Sonkawade got the job.

Like Kale, Sonkawade had grown up in the western state of Maharashtra and planned to become an engineer. After high school, he applied to some engineering colleges but couldn’t score high enough to gain admission. He enrolled instead at Marathwada University, where he excelled in physics.

As Sonkawade worked his way through graduate school, the Dalit movement gained momentum in Indian politics, and the Bahujan Samaj Party, a pro-Dalit political party, rose to power in India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh.


“You have to have decency for some time, but not beyond certain limit. If it is your right, you have to snatch it,” Kale said. “We cannot wait.”

During the same time, though, India witnessed new opposition by upper-caste Hindus against the reservation policies. In 1990, the Indian government announced that it would implement a commission’s recommendation to expand reservation policies to include Other Backward Classes, an official designation for various other marginalized castes. Adding to the existing quotas, the new policy meant that 49.5 percent of seats were now, at least officially, reserved for lower-caste candidates. “Merit in an elitist society is not something inherent,” the commission had argued in its report, “but is the consequence of environmental privileges enjoyed by the members of higher castes.”

That “ignited a firestorm,” Subramanian writes in “The Caste of Merit.” “Upper-caste students took to the streets, staging sit-ins; setting up road blockades; and masquerading as vendors, sweepers, and shoe shiners in a graphic depiction of their future reduction to lower-caste labor.” More than 60 upper-caste students, many of whom said they were protesting the new policy, died by suicide.

The tension was palpable in educational and research institutes. At the Nuclear Science Center — later renamed the Inter-University Accelerator Center, or IUAC — Sonkawade began to study radiation safety. Often, he said, he would hear some of his upper-caste colleagues say that Dalits were incompetent. Frustrated, he waited for the standard new-employee probationary period to end. Then Sonkawade worked with Dalit and Adivasi researchers in the institute to form an association to represent their rights.

“We became more active with our demands,” said Sonkawade, thumping his palm on the table in his office at Shivaji University, in the west Indian city of Kolhapur, where he now teaches physics. On the wall to his right were some photographs, including one of Ambedkar, whom Sonkawade calls his role model.

After forming the association, Sonkawade began to push IUAC to set up a special committee to tackle Dalit and Adivasi issues to ensure implementation of the reservation policy — something required of government-funded institutes, but which the school had not established. His group also asked for the representation of marginalized communities in the governing boards of the institute.

Described by Kale as “the best among the lot” of junior researcher candidates, Rajendra Sonkawade was hired in the 1990s at what is now called the Inter-University Accelerator Center, where he began advocating for the rights of lower-caste researchers. In his office at Shivaji University, a portrait of Dalit leader Bhimrao Ramji Ambedkar hangs on the wall next to an image of Mahatma Gandhi. 
Visual: Ankur Paliwal for Undark

While Kale was tactful in navigating institutional casteism, Sonkawade was more confrontational. His advocacy soon brought him into conflict with the IUAC administration, several of his colleagues said. “He became very unpopular,” Debashish Sen, a scientist at IUAC, recalled. Others felt, Sen said, that Sonkawade was operating out of his own self-interest rather than for the betterment of his community.

In interviews, many of Sonkawade’s colleagues described him as hard working. But, around the mid-2000s, the scores on Sonkawade’s annual performance reports — essential for promotion — began to drop. Sonkawade was overlooking his responsibilities in the lab, said Devesh Kumar Avasthi, a senior scientist who was one of the evaluators of Sonkawade’s performance. But Satya Pal Lochab, who oversaw the lab in which Sonkawade worked and also participated in the evaluations, said that his “anti-establishment activities” affected his scores. Eventually, the lagging scores delayed a promotion.

Dinakar Kanjilal and Amit Roy, both former directors of IUAC, said the delay in promotion had nothing to do with caste. In national labs, “I don’t see anybody bother about caste,” said Kanjilal, who is upper-caste. “They see your contribution.”

Feeling harassed, Sonkawade left and joined Shivaji University. Even at his new post, he kept pushing IUAC to recognize that it had owed him a promotion. Although IUAC eventually yielded — and Sonkawade said he won partial backpay. By that point, he said, the promotion “wasn’t of any use” for his career. “The whole system was against me,” he said. “I paid the price for speaking up.” An IUAC employee who used to field discrimination complaints confirmed seeing many cases where Dalits received performance review scores just a few decimal points below the requirement for promotion. The person requested anonymity, fearing reprisal from the institute.

Between 2018 and 2020, Sonkawade was invited to interview for the position of vice chancellor at three universities in Maharashtra, and for the director’s position at IUAC. In at least three of those four cases, an upper-caste person was chosen.


After his promotion was delayed due to lower scores on his annual performance reports, Sonkawade joined Shivaji University, where he teaches physics today. A senior scientist who participated in the evaluations said that Sonkawade’s “anti-establishment activities” affected his scores. 
Visual: Ankur Paliwal for Undark

EVEN AS DALIT researchers like Sonkawade and Kale recount fighting against casteism, many upper-caste researchers describe themselves as caste-blind, or beyond caste — a phenomenon, critics say, that has made it more difficult to address ongoing disparities in top scientific institutions.

In 2012, social anthropologist Renny Thomas joined a chemistry laboratory at the Indian Institute of Sciences to study caste dynamics at the institute, arguably India’s most elite science university. That year, he interviewed 80 researchers, and later observed a cultural festival celebrated at the institute. Again and again, Thomas found, Brahmin researchers denied that caste existed in their lives or on the campus. “Caste!?? Oh, Please! I have nothing to do with caste,” one molecular biologist from a Brahmin family told Thomas, according to a paper he published last year. “It never registered in my mind.”

Such claims aren’t limited to academic science. In a 2013 paper, University of Delhi sociologist Satish Deshpande argued that for many upper-caste Indians, caste is “a ladder that can now be safely kicked away,” but only after they convert those high-caste privileges into other forms of status, such as “property, higher educational credentials, and strongholds in lucrative professions.” Many Dalits, Kale said, would also like to forget their caste. But upper-caste people, he added, “don’t let us.”

“The whole system was against me,” Sonkawade said. “I paid the price for speaking up.”

Interviews with young Dalit scientists, along with a growing body of academic work, detail the obstacles Dalits still face on their path through scientific training. Those barriers begin early: Just getting into science and engineering education has been a challenging and uncommon choice for Dalit students in the first place, according to Wankhede, the educational sociologist. “Science education is very expensive. Highly inaccessible,” he said. Students pay higher tuition rates for science courses than in other areas, because they are required to take additional classes to do experiments. And to keep up with their coursework, science students often pay for instruction in pricey private academies called coaching institutes, something many Dalit families cannot afford.

For those Dalits who make it into elite scientific institutes, cultural barriers remind them of the caste divide. During his time at IISc, Thomas found that his lower-caste and Dalit sources identified reflections of upper caste culture throughout the institute. Thomas focused on the Carnatic music concerts that Brahmin students organized. Traditionally, Carnatic music, a type of classical music, has long been the domain of Brahmins in southern India. In one instance at IISc, after the singer finished her song, the Brahmin audience continued singing, showing their familiarity with the art form, writes Thomas. But such events alienated researchers who were not Brahmin. One saw Carnatic music as a “symbol of domination” and said he preferred “folk songs and songs of resistance by Dalit reformers.”

“The mindset remains extraordinarily Brahminical in these elite institutions,” said Abha Sur, a historian of science at Massachusetts Institute of Technology who has written about caste and gender in Indian science. That mindset, she added, tacitly aligns itself with caste hierarchy: “There is implicit devaluation of people that continuously erodes their sense of self.”

In a predominantly Dalit neighborhood of Mumbai, people gather around a statue of Bhimrao Ramji Ambedkar to read their newspapers. Ambedkar, a Dalit leader who founded a group of colleges, is sometimes compared to Martin Luther King Jr. To many, the casteism Ambedkar fought against still exists today. 
Visual: Ankur Paliwal for Undark

Undark spoke with eight early-career Dalit science researchers who declined to be identified, fearing retaliation from their institutions or harm to their careers. Most described receiving humiliating reminders about using reservation quotas from upper-caste students and teachers, which implied they weren’t there on their own merit. Many also said their institutes make no effort to create awareness about casteism, and just overlook it. “It seems that the untouchability still exists, but in a different form,” said one student, who’s pursuing a Ph.D. in engineering at IISc.

These tensions sometimes bubble into the public eye. In 2007, for example, a government committee found widespread discrimination and harassment against Dalit and Adivasi students at the All India Institute of Medical Science in New Delhi. The humiliation and abuse by upper-caste students was so bad, the committee reported, that Dalit and Adivasi students had moved to the two top floors of their hostels, seeking safety together.

In 2016, Rohith Vemula, a Dalit Ph.D. researcher at Hyderabad University, died by suicide. The press reported that discrimination at the university had contributed to Vemula’s death. His loss sparked outrage on several campuses across India and led to the formation of more student organizations like Ambedkar Periyar Study Circle, which offer support to Dalit and other oppressed castes.

In a copy of one 2019 discrimination complaint leaked to Undark, a Dalit Ph.D. student at IISc describes experiencing several instances of caste discrimination. In one incident detailed in the report, the student’s supervisor didn’t let him enter a lab where cells are grown in a carefully controlled environment, saying he was “not clean.” Later, the supervisor justified his actions by saying that the student sometimes scratched his skin. The report alleges that the student’s supervisors also kept delaying a critical exam required within two years of starting a Ph.D., saying the student had not gathered enough data. But, the student said in the complaint, other students from the same lab had taken the exam with far less data. The student asked for a transfer to another lab, where he passed the exam and transitioned to a senior fellow position.


“It seems that the untouchability still exists, but in a different form,” said one IISc student.

Such formal complaints may be relatively rare. Akshay Sawant, an upper-caste member of Ambedkar Periyar Phule Study Circle, a student organization at IIT Bombay, said that discrimination cases remain underreported because students fear retaliation from their upper-caste supervisors. The special Dalit and Adivasi affairs committee at IIT Bombay received only one complaint between 2019 and 2020, which, as of May, was still being investigated. IISc received three complaints in 2020, of which two, as of late April, were unresolved.

Caste divisions occasionally spill over into scientific communities beyond India’s borders. Since the mid-1960s, for example, United States policies designed to incentivize the immigration of skilled STEM professionals have led hundreds of thousands of scientists and engineers — most of them upper-caste — to move from India to the U.S. In June 2020, California state regulators sued the technology company Cisco Systems, alleging that two upper-caste supervisors had harassed and discriminated against a Dalit employee. According to the complaint, one of the supervisors had disclosed the engineer’s caste to colleagues, telling them he had attended an IIT in India under the country’s reservation policy. The complaint also states the engineer was subjected to a hostile work environment and pay discrimination based on his caste. (The hearings have been postponed until September of this year.) ­­­

A 2016 survey by Equality Labs, a progressive Dalit civil rights organization, found that 67 percent of Dalits in the Indian diaspora in the U.S. reported facing caste-based harassment and discrimination in the workplace. In Silicon Valley, most of the Indians come from institutions “where caste discrimination is rampant,” Subramanian wrote in an email to Undark. “Therefore, the entry of caste discrimination into the American tech sector is not in the least bit surprising.”

WHEN KALE entered graduate school in the 1970s, there were no Dalit role models for him in science. Fifty years later, many early-career Dalit researchers say the same.

One early-career Dalit scientist willing to speak openly about her experiences is Shalini Mahadev, a researcher pursuing a doctorate in neural and cognitive sciences at the University of Hyderabad, one of India’s top-ranked universities. In an interview, Mahadev said she badly wants to see more senior scientists from her community, and to have teachers who can relate to the life experiences of students like her. “Having them in your classroom, in your research, in your lab is something else, because you are coming with so many anxieties, you know,” she said. “And you are feeling inefficient all the time.”

Mahadev is in her late 30s and grew up in Hyderabad. Her father, who was part of the first generation in his family to go to school, had received an engineering diploma — a specialized course shorter than an undergraduate degree — in order to get a job quickly. Her mother discontinued her studies after marrying young. The family had modest resources, and Mahadev remembers feeling intense pressure to study and perform. Her father told her that he has always lived with a gnawing feeling that he couldn’t study more, and that he didn’t want her to feel the same way, recalled Mahadev.


Early-career Dalit researcher Shalini Mahadev says she badly wants to see more senior scientists from her community.
Visual: Courtesy of Shalini Mahadev

After high school, Mahadev took a break to prepare for national examinations to become a doctor. Like many students in India, she turned to coaching institutes that help students prepare for the exam. The atmosphere in these institutes is extremely competitive. On her first day of classes, she said, teachers would ask Dalit students to stand up, while upper-caste students sat in their chairs. The teachers would tell the Dalit students that, even if they didn’t study hard or get great marks, they were likely to get admission in medical colleges because of reservation policies — unlike the upper-caste students who needed to study harder.

Standing in the class, Mahadev could feel the eyes of her upper-caste classmates on her. Teachers “are already making people hate me,” she remembers thinking. As demeaning incidents piled up, Mahadev said, she began avoiding going to the institute. Eventually, she decided she didn’t want to become a doctor. Instead, she chose to study biology, because she liked learning about genes. Later, she became fascinated with neurons. Today, she studies the connection between neurons and the sense of hearing in grasshoppers.

Reminders of caste shadowed her. On campus, she said, upper-caste people would assert their status in subtle ways — through what they wore, how they talked, even how they walked. At one point, when Mahadev was a junior research fellow, another fellow told her that science is not for poor people, she recalled. That broke Mahadev’s heart, because it also seemed true to her. In her view, historically, “science was only done by rich people,” she said — people who have the time and resources to pursue it. And for Mahadev, time often seemed scarce: Living in a neighborhood on the outskirts of Hyderabad, she spent four to six hours each day commuting via bus between her house and the university, until she could finally get a place in the university hostel.

Many elite institutes have resisted change. In April 2020, following growing criticism in Indian media about the low representation of marginalized communities at IITs, India’s Department of Higher Education formed a committee to suggest ways to implement the reservation policy. The committee, in its report, said that because few students from the “reserved category” receive Ph.D.s, few are available to be hired as teachers or researchers. The committee also recommended that IITs, as “institutes of national importance,” should be exempted from following the reservation policy in hiring teachers.


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