Monday, August 30, 2021

Ethiopia's economy battered by Tigray war

By Vivienne Nunis
BBC News, Africa correspondent
Published10 hours ago
Tigray crisis
 Many Ethiopians are living in refugee camps in neighbouring Sudan because of conflict in their country

Ethiopia's 10-month internal war has come at a huge human cost, with thousands killed, millions displaced and many in desperate need of assistance.

But that's not the only damage being done to Africa's second most populous nation - the war has incurred a huge economic cost, too, that could take years to repair.

In the capital Addis Ababa, 26-year-old Tigist, who didn't want her full name to be used, says her monthly expenses have doubled for two reasons: the war that broke out in the northern region of Tigray in November and the coronavirus pandemic.

"Before Covid and the conflict, I would pay 1,000 birr [about $22; £16] each month for groceries. Now I spend 2,000 birr," she says. "Things are more expensive now - phones, food and clothes."

Official statistics show the cost of basic consumer goods has indeed gone up in Ethiopia -they were on average around a quarter more expensive in July than a year earlier.

Tigist is working as a supermarket cashier to support her family. She's responsible for the food shopping while her brother covers the rent.

"Also, the dollar exchange has not been good," she adds. "Last year, for $1 you would get 35 birr, now you get 45."

Faisal Roble, a US-based analyst who specialises in the Horn of Africa, says that spending on the war effort "has really negatively impacted Ethiopia's capacity to access dollars", and has caused the exchange rate to deteriorate.

It is not clear how much the war has cost but Trading Economics forecasts military expenditure will reach $502m (£365m) by the end of the year, up from $460m last year.

Last week, UN secretary general Antonio Guterres said the conflict had "drained over a billion dollars from the country's coffers".

Prior to the global pandemic and the war, Ethiopia's economy was one of the fastest-growing in the region, expanding by an average of 10% a year in the decade to 2019, according to the World Bank.


The cost of living has risen sharply

While Tigist is referring to the official rate available in banks, the birr has fallen even further in the informal market, Mr Roble says, and has now reached 67 birr against the dollar.

He adds that business owners in the country are nervous about the worsening security situation as the war spreads beyond Tigray and into the neighbouring regions of Afar and Amhara.

Many are draining their accounts and taking their cash to money traders on the border with the self-declared republic of Somaliland, and that's forcing the birr's value to drop even lower, Mr Roble says.

Banks shut in Tigray

The civil war started when the party in power in Tigray, the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF) attacked federal military bases in November, amidst an escalating feud with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed over the dissolution of the ruling coalition and the postponement of elections.

Since then, Ethiopia's military - as well as its Eritrean allies, state police forces and local militias - have fought a bloody war against Tigrayan fighters.

Both sides have been accused of committing atrocities, including rape and mass civilian killings.

Tigray has been without basic services, including telecommunications and banks, since the federal government instigated a blockade on it in June, after the rebels recaptured the regional capital Mekelle.

War has led to the destruction of many schools and health centres in Tigray

More than 400,000 people in Tigray are already living in famine-like conditions, while aid distribution has been stifled and electricity and fuel supplies are dwindling, pushing prices up.

Mekelle resident Filmon Berhane told BBC Tigrinya that food and rent have recently skyrocketed.

"There is no money as all the banks are closed and government offices are not paying salaries," he said.

Mobile phone auction hit


Internationally, the war is having a huge impact on Ethiopia's reputation as a place to invest, says economist Irmgard Erasmus from the NKC African Economics consultancy group.

"If your consumers are under severe pressure from high inflation, you don't see consumer-driven growth as we see in the US or the Eurozone," she says.

"Generally, that leaves foreign investment to really drive growth, and it's exactly this that's being attacked by reputational risk."

Ms Erasmus points to the recent liberalisation of Ethiopia's telecoms sector, which originally attracted interest from a number of providers, including South African telecoms giant MTN.

In the end though, only one company successfully bid for either of the two telecoms licences on offer, a consortium led by Kenya's Safaricom which pledged $850m.

While rules that initially restricted new license holders from operating a mobile money system dampened investor interest, industry sources say the Tigray conflict also weighed heavily on investors' minds.

Pressure to end war


Ethiopia's overall economic growth for this year is forecast to slow significantly from 6% in 2020 to just 2% in 2021 - the lowest level in almost two decades, according to the IMF.

The country imports about $14bn of goods per year, while it exports just $3.4bn.

Also worrying economic observers is Ethiopia's national debt, which some expect to reach $60bn this year, or nearly 70% of GDP.

"This is a conservative estimate," says Ms Erasmus, adding Ethiopia's military spend could be higher than forecast, and it has taken on unreported debt in the past.

Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed's supporters have rallied behind his military campaign against the Tigray rebels

While the US has imposed some visa restrictions on Ethiopians involved in the war, and withheld some spending, so far, the international community has been reluctant to exert maximum economic pressure on the government, or cut generous aid programmes. Around a quarter of the population live below the national poverty line, and the average yearly income is just $850 per person.

"There is clearly scope for ratcheting up the sanctions if Prime Minister Abiy, who won the Nobel Peace prize in 2019, does not deescalate the conflict," says Witney Schneidman a non-resident fellow with the Brookings think-tank in Washington.

The Biden administration's dilemma, says Mr Schneidman, is to put enough pressure on Mr Abiy to end the war without isolating Ethiopia completely.

"All tools are on the table, but you've got 110m people, you can't make the nation a pariah, it's too important, too strategic," he says.

Additional reporting by Eva Artesona in Addis Ababa.


 

Canadian Ice Service tracking icebergs from Ellesmere in western Arctic

Beacons were dropped from an airplane onto icebergs last week

A team from Environment Canada and the Department of National Defence flew over the Beaufort sea last week to drop sensors on an iceberg in the western arctic. (Submitted by Adrienne White)

The Canadian Ice Service is tracking icebergs to monitor and predict drifting patterns in the western Arctic, according to one of its ice analysts.

Last week, the organization — a branch of Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) — dropped beacons from a Hercules aircraft onto icebergs in the Beaufort Sea. 

Adrienne White, an ice analyst with the Canadian Ice Service, said that it's common practice to track icebergs in the eastern Arctic. 

In this case, the icebergs being monitored in the Western Arctic are castaways from the Milne ice shelf on the northwest coast of Ellesmere Island — an area that was historically permanently covered in ice.

A map showing the location of the Milne ice shelf on Ellesmere Island in Canada's High Arctic. (CBC)

Over the past century Ellesmere Island has begun to break up, explained White, and that process has accelerated within the last decade. 

The warming climate has caused an increase in floating icebergs breaking off of stable structures, as well as more open water along the northern coastline. 

"We're having a lot more change to these large floating ice structures that are no longer stable in our current climate," White said, adding that it could mean risk for ships or coastal communities nearby.

The buoys that will be dropped onto icebergs in the Beaufort Sea for the first time this year. (Submitted by Adrienne White)
  

By dropping beacons, White said she and her colleagues at ECCC will be able to monitor the drifting ice. 

The sensor data will provide updates on the icebergs' coordinates every hour for the next two years. 

White said her colleagues are also deploying a different kind of sensor into the Beaufort Sea to record air temperatures, sea surface temperatures and pressure. 

That meteorological data is used in global climate modelling to forecast weather worldwide. 

Forget the Alamo review: dark truths of the US south and its ‘secular Mecca’


Three Texas authors expose the myth that the 1836 battle at a San Antonio mission was about freedom. It was about slavery


Dressed as Mexican soldiers, members of the San Antonio 
Living History Association fire a volley at the Alamo. 
Photograph: Eric Gay/AP

Charles Kaiser
Sun 29 Aug 2021

As the ancient American struggle over how much truth to tell about the traditional oppression of minorities bubbles over, with arguments over everything from the teaching of Critical Race Theory to the mention of anything gay in the presence of anyone under 18, this engaging new book about the history of the Alamo arrives at the perfect moment.

Our Own Worst Enemy review: a caustic diagnosis of America after Trump

Or, as Bryan Burrough, Chris Tomlinson and Jason Stanford assert: “If there’s ever been a moment for a spirited discussion about what the Alamo really symbolizes, we’d suggest it’s now.”

Burrough is the author of six books; Tomlinson an accomplished journalist; Stanford a successful political consultant. In their collective opinion, it’s “not an overstatement to say the Alamo is the secular western wall” of Texas, “its secular Mecca. Somewhat as Jews and Muslims have struggled over the Temple Mount, so Anglos, African Americans, Mexican Americans, Tejanos and Native Americans are now debating the future of the Alamo and its meaning.”


Almost 200 years after the battle which killed 200 Americans at an old Spanish church outside San Antonio, the essential argument remains the same: were these settlers fighting for their “freedom” against the oppression of a Mexican tyrant, Antonio López de Santa Anna, or were they mostly interested in preserving the slavery a recently independent Mexico opposed but they considered essential for the success of their burgeoning cotton farms?

Burrough, Tomlinson and Stanford leave no doubt about the correct answer. Slavery.

“Texas as we know it exists only because of slave labor,” they assert, and most Texans who came from the the south “wouldn’t immigrate to Texas without it … for Mexicans, newly freed from Spanish oppression, abolishing slavery was a moral issue. For the American colonists it was an issue of wealth creation.”

Or as the Texas pioneer Stephen Austin wrote in different letters, “Nothing is wanted but money” and “negroes are necessary to make it”.

What the authors call a “historiography” or “a history of histories” does a fine job of separating the few actual facts about the Alamo from the legend which comprises “the beating heart of Texas exceptionalism”.

Jim Bowie, portrayed in countless histories and movies as one of the Alamo’s most valiant defenders, most likely died in his sickbed without engaging any attacker.

Davey Crockett, always depicted in paintings, songs and movies dying “at the center of a ring of fallen Mexican soldiers”, most likely surrendered in the middle of the battle and was executed afterwards.

Whether it was a fight for liberty or for slavery, the Alamo was an overwhelming victory for Mexico. But accounts of Mexican butchery – anyone who surrendered was executed and their body immediately burned – spurred a huge desire for revenge.

“It’s not an overstatement,” the authors write, “to venture that the gently massaged story of [the Alamo’s] heroic fall emerged as the single most powerful weapon in [future Texas president Sam] Houston’s arsenal.”

Just six weeks after the fall of the Alamo, Santa Anna’s army was attacked by Houston’s men and defeated in 18 minutes at the battle of San Jacinto. Six hundred Mexicans were killed. Only nine Texans died in the battle, plus six who succumbed to their wounds.

The rest of the book is devoted to the long battle waged by historians, novelists and movie-makers, all seeking to use this history for their own purposes.

DW Griffith, auteur of The Birth of a Nation, “the most racist blockbuster film in US history”, was also responsible for its spiritual sequel, Martyrs of the Alamo, “the most perversely distorted version of the Alamo narrative ever told … It portrays the Texas revolt as an Anglo revolt against the sexual predations of Santa Anna and his soldiers. Forget liberty, forget Mexican tyranny, [according to Griffith] the Alamo was actually about the perils of miscegenation.”

A particularly poignant section of Burrough, Tomlinson and Stanford’s book offers the accounts of Mexican-American Texans who considered themselves American until the seventh grade – when they suddenly discovered they were the murderers of the Alamo.

The Latina activist Rosie Castro, the mother of presidential candidate Julían and his congressman brother Joaquin, remembered it this way.


Alamo named first World Heritage Site in Texas after nine-year campaign


“They used to take us there when we were schoolchildren. They told us how glorious that battle was. When I grew up I learned that the ‘heroes’ of the Alamo were a bunch of drunks and cooks and slaveholding imperialists who conquered land that didn’t belong to them. But as a little girl I got the message – we were losers. I can truly say that I hate that place and everything it stands for.”

Incredibly, the three authors write that they “couldn’t find a single white friend who knew of this widespread Latino sentiment. This ignorance, we might venture, lies at the root of much of the resistance toward updating the Alamo narrative.”

They conclude that most people “need to forget what we learned about the Alamo, embrace the truth and celebrate all Texans”. Reading their book is a terrific first step on that essential journey.


Forget the Alamo is published in the US by Penguin
Penguin Classics Launches “New Canon” of Environmental Literature

“This series feels like a collective expression of love and grief for the living world.”

ALISON FLOOD

From left, Greta Thunberg, Wangari Maathai, and George Monbiot.
AP Images; Clara Margais (Thunberg), Jon Mcconnico (Maathai), Toby Farrow (Monbiot)

This story was originally published by the Guardian and is reproduced here as part of the Climate Desk collaboration.

From Greta Thunberg to James Lovelock, publisher Penguin Classics has come up with a “new canon” of the environmental literature, which it believes has “changed the way we think and talk about the living Earth.”

The move is part of a growing trend in publishing for books focused on the climate, whether from big hitters such as David Attenborough or Bill Gates, whose How to Avoid a Climate Disaster was out in February, or so-called “cli-fi,” climate fiction, from writers including Richard Powers and Jenny Offill. Penguin’s Green Ideas series capitalises on this appetite, collecting 20 short books it believes constitute “the classics that made a movement,” by “visionary thinkers around the world [who] have raised their voices to defend the planet.”The move is part of a growing trend in publishing for books focused on the climate.

Nobel peace prize winner Wangari Maathai is included with her exploration of the power of trees and why humans destroy the forests that keep us alive; Rachel Carson for her revelations about how man-made pesticides have destroyed wildlife; George Monbiot for his call for humanity to wake up to the destruction of the planet; and Naomi Klein for her look at how deregulated capitalism is waging war on the climate. Ranging across art, literature and gardening to technology and politics, Penguin believes that each title, extracted from longer works, “deepens our sense of our place in nature,” and that together they can “point the way to a fairer, saner, greener world.”

The publisher came up with the idea for the series in the wake of publication of Thunberg’s No One Is Too Small to Make a Difference. “Greta had raised the temperature of the global conversation—suddenly we were talking about a crisis rather than just climate ‘change’—and there was a clear and growing hunger for more environmental ideas,” said editor Chloe Currens.

Penguin set out to “trace the emerging environmental canon,” moving from Aldo Leopold’s A Sand Country Almanac (1949)—the forester and conservationist’s meditation on the US’s wildlands is included in the series—to Carson’s Silent Spring, which exploded into public consciousness in the 60s, and on into the present day.“The 20 books we chose struck us as quite obvious starting points for the series, in terms of their originality and their impact,”

“The 20 books we chose struck us as quite obvious starting points for the series, in terms of their originality and their impact,” said Currens. “But there’s such an abundance of important and stimulating environmental writing that the list couldn’t be exhaustive.”

Robin Wall Kimmerer, a botanist and member of the Citizen Potawatomi Nation, is included for her guide towards a more reciprocal, grateful and joyful relationship with the earth. Kimmerer said that she was “deeply honoured that my words will stand in the company of my literary heroes.”

“This series feels like a collective expression of love and grief for the living world and could not be more important in this moment of peril,” said the author. “I view my writing as an act of reciprocity with the land, a way of returning in some small way, the gifts that have been shared with me. The Indigenous worldview offers approaches to healing our relationship with land, which is a counterweight to the dominant materialist worldview. It is both ancient and urgent and I am grateful that it is illuminated here.”

Kimmerer hopes her essays “will work as medicine for a broken relationship with land, healing us from the illness of species loneliness and human exceptionalism that the western worldview has produced.”

Amitav Ghosh, included in the series for an exploration of how our collective imaginations fail to grasp the scale of environmental destruction, said he was “very glad” to be included. “In my book I make the case that climate change is fundamentally a problem of culture, and I try to pinpoint the precise reasons why this subject is difficult to address within the traditional boundaries of modern literature,” he said.

Jared Diamond’s contribution to the series explores how the remote civilization on Easter Island destroyed itself by exploiting its own natural resources. “Why does the story of Easter Island society’s collapse so rivet our attention?” said Diamond. “Because Easter’s deforestation and collapse were so complete; because Easter was the most isolated human society on Earth, so its collapse was thus purely for environmental reasons, there being no other humans around to complicate the interpretation; because Easter’s fate may prove to be a metaphor for the fate of our modern Earth society, as isolated in space as Easter is isolated in the Pacific Ocean; and because of another metaphor: that some people nevertheless deny Easter’s clear story, just as some people deny the clear risks facing our modern world.”

Penguin hopes to add to the series. “It’s a growing, evolving ecosystem of great ideas,” said Currens. “I hope that the series will be used by readers as a way of engaging with some of the key ideas in modern environmental thought—that it will offer an accessible path through the vibrant, urgent, and perhaps occasionally overwhelming wider world of ecological writing.”
Study Shows Wildfire Smoke Can Make Clouds Drop Less Rain
August 29, 2021

Smoke from a wildfire obscures trees on the Northern Cheyenne Indian Reservation, Wednesday, Aug. 11, 2021, near Ashland, Montana. (AP Photo/Matthew Brown)


A new study suggests that smoke from wildfires can change how clouds store water and could lead to less rainfall.

The research comes as western parts of the United States are currently experiencing drought conditions after several years of intense wildfire activity.

A team of scientists took to the skies in western U.S. states during the summer of 2018 to study the effects of wildfire smoke on clouds. They flew a C-130 research airplane through clouds with instruments to measure gas and particle levels.

In 2018, California suffered its most destructive wildfire season ever. Other western states, including Oregon, Colorado, and Washington, have also experienced intense wildfire activity in recent years.

Cynthia Twohy is an atmospheric scientist at NorthWest Research Associates and Scripps Institution of Oceanography in San Diego. She led the new study, which recently appeared in Geophysical Research Letters.

In this file photo, a thin layer of cumulus clouds caps dense smoke from the Kiawah-Rabbit Foot fires in eastern Idaho during August 2018. The image was captured from the scientists’ C-130 research plane. (Photo Credit: Emily V. Fischer/American Geophysical Union)

Twohy said in a statement she decided to center on cloud research because she wondered if there was a link between the increase in wildfires and a lack of rain.

“I started thinking, ‘What are the long-term effects of this? We have drought, and we have a lot of wildfires, and they’re increasing over time. How do clouds play into this picture?’” she said.

Clouds contain a collection of water droplets that form from vapor in the atmosphere. When these droplets condense onto each other within a cloud, they become heavier and eventually fall as rain.

But the water condensation process requires a solid substance for the vapor to attach to. Different kinds of particles rising up from the Earth’s surface can reach clouds and enable this process.

The new study found that smoke from wildfires contains small particles that affect the way droplets form in clouds.

In this Tuesday, Aug. 17, 2021 file image from a U.S. Forest Service wildfire monitoring camera, plumes of smoke rise from the Caldor Fire in El Dorado County, Calif. 
(U.S. Forest Service/ALERTWildfire Network via AP, File)

The main effect was the amount of water droplets formed. The team reported the smoky clouds contained about five times the number of droplets as non-smoky clouds. But data also showed that the droplets in smoky clouds were much smaller, about half the size, as those in the clouds without wildfire smoke.

It is that size difference, the researchers say, that could reduce the amount of rainfall. This is because small droplets are less likely to grow and eventually fall to the ground as rain.

“Because of their small droplet sizes, these smoky clouds are expected to reflect more light and produce less rain than clouds in clean air,” the study states.

The finding could mean that active wildfire seasons in the western U.S. may in fact lead to less rain and more drought, the researchers said.

“We were surprised at how effective these primarily organic particles were at forming cloud droplets and what large impacts they had on the microphysics of the clouds,” Twohy said.

Corn waits to be harvested on land leased by Tempe Farming Co., Thursday, July 22, 2021, in Casa Grande, Ariz. (AP Photo/Darryl Webb)

The researchers noted that past studies had also found similar changes in cloud droplets related to wildfire smoke in the Amazon. However, the new study points out that, in addition to the cloud droplet changes, “a number of complex and competing” elements might also be affecting climate in the U.S. West.

Twohy also noted that different kinds of clouds behave differently. The current study examined changes in small, cumulus clouds. Other kinds that sit much higher in the atmosphere can cause heavy storms, she said.

Twohy added: “I’m hoping these results will spur detailed regional modeling studies that will help us understand the net impact of smoke on clouds and climate.”


Bryan Lynn wrote this report for VOA Learning English, based on reports from the American Geophysical Union and Geophysical Research Letters. Susan Shand was the editor.

 

Nikolai Bukharin 1915

Toward a Theory of the Imperialist State

 THE IMPERIALIST STATE AND FINANCE CAPITALISM

1) Reinforcing the role of state power. 2) The state and the production of products (the domain lands, forestry, state factories, state monopolies, “mixed enterprises,” state control and mobilization of industry). 3) The state and the process of circulation (the state and the means of circulation: railways, telegraph, telephone, underwater cables; commercial monopolies, state banks and banking concerns; the organization of credit; state loans; state control in the sphere of distribution, etc.). 4) Foreign economic policy and state power. 5) The centralization process within a state-capitalist trust. 6) Militarism and militarization of the economy; the so-called war socialism.

Even the most superficial glance at socio-economic life demonstrates the colossal growth in the economic significance of the state. In particular, this growth can be seen in the expansion of the state budget. The complicated apparatus of a modern state organization demands monstrous expenditures, which increase with shocking rapidity. Here are the data:

Germany
(millions of marks)
France
(millions of francs)
Great Britain
(pounds)
The United States
(dollars)
Italy
(millions of lira)
Russia [28]
1891-95 – 1,553.01893 – 3,359.71900 – 143,687,0681900 – 487,713,7921898-99 – 812
1901-05 – 2,253.11907 – 3,882.3231910 – 157,944,6111910 – 659,705,3911906-07 – 1,945.9
1907 – 2,809.81908 – 4,020.51911 – 171,995,6671911 – 654,137,9981909-10 – 2,602.1
1908 – 2,784.8 [21]1909 – 4,186.01912 – 178,545,1001912 – 654,553,9631910-11 – 2,833.1
1911 – 2,897.41910 – 4,321.91913 – 188,624,9301913 – 682,770,7051911-12 – 2,949.0
1912 – 2,893.31911 – 4,547.91914 – 197,492,969[25]1914 – 700,254,489[26]1912-13 – 3,252.027
1913 – 3,520.9 [22]1912 – 4,742.7[24]

Since the 1890s, therefore, Germany has increased its budgetary expenditures by 126%; France, by 41%. In Great Britain and the United States the increase since 1900 has been 37% (England) and 44% (the USA). The budget of Italy has grown since the end of the ‘90s by 67%. And then there is Russia.

Just how large the volume of state expenditures is relative to those of the population can be seen from the following table (compiled on the basis of income-tax statistics for Prussia):[29]

 Millions of marksPercent
State expenditures2,32313
Community expenditures (more than 10,000 inhabitants)9185
Community expenditures for productive purposes1,85611
Personal expenditures by the bourgeoisie2,78416
Expenditures by the popular masses9,61655

The state and the largest municipalities accounted for approximately 20%, or one-fifth, of all expenditures.

As one aspect of imperialist policy, which in turn results from the specific structure of finance capitalism, militarism plays an enormous role in such budgetary increases. But we are not speaking simply of militarism in the narrow sense of the word. A further cause is the growing interference of the power of the state in every realm of social life, beginning with production and ending with the highest forms of ideological creativity. The pre-imperialist period was that of liberalism, which was the political expression of industrial capitalism and was characterized by non-intervention on the part of state power. The formula of laissez-faire was a symbol of faith within the leading circles of the bourgeoisie, who left everything to the “free play of economic forces.” Our own time, by contrast, is characterized by exactly the opposite tendency, the logical limit of which is state capitalism, or the inclusion of absolutely everything within the sphere of state regulation.

In order to ascertain the most general sources of this statification we must keep in mind the tendencies of finance-capitalist development. The organizational process, which embraces more and mere branches of the “national economy” through the creation of combined enterprises and through the organizational role of the banks, has led to the conversion of each developed “national system” of capitalism into a “state-capitalist trust.”[30]

On the other hand, the process of development of the productive forces of the world economy drives these “national” systems into the most acute conflicts in their competitive struggle for the world market. These two basic facts of contemporary capitalist reality provide us with the key to understanding the “state” tendencies of contemporary finance capitalism. Why was the bourgeoisie really so individualistic in the past? Principally because the basic category of economic life was the private-economic unit, which confronts all the others as a competitor. The interrelation of people, or the internal structure of the bourgeoisie as a class, was analogous to this interrelation among enterprises. As a class the bourgeoisie came out against the proletariat. But internally, within the limits of the class itself, each member stood opposed to the other as a competitor: Homo homini lupus est. Each hoped to unseat his opponent by relying upon his own forces, the interplay between them being positive for the “whole.” But it was not only separate enterprises and individual people who emerged as the bearers of individualism. The division of the ruling classes into different groups also played an analogous role: above all the division into a landed and an industrial bourgeoisie, followed by lesser divisions between the representatives of raw material production and manufacturers, commercial and usurer capital, etc. The epoch of finance capital puts an end to this state of affairs. Above all else, the individual private enterprise disappears as the cell of the capitalist organism and the basis of capitalist individualism. Moreover, the contradiction between different subgroups of the ruling classes also largely disappears. By collaborating with one another, almost every category of the bourgeoisie is transformed into the recipients of dividends, the category of interest becoming the general form of expression for all so-called “nonlabor incomes.” The holy of holies for every bourgeois (and landlord) becomes the bank to which he and his kind are tied by a thousand threads.

Thus, a system of collective capitalism is created, which to a certain extent is opposed to the entire structure of capitalism in its earlier forms. The separate capitalist disappears: he becomes a Verbandskapitalist,[31] a member of an organization; he no longer competes, but instead cooperates with his “compatriots”; for the center of gravity in the competitive struggle is carried over into the world market, whereas within the country competition dies out. Such a structure of the ruling classes is accompanied by a corresponding change in the “state machine”: the state power becomes the supreme organization of the finance-capitalist bourgeoisie, who constitute a homogeneous group. The financial oligarchy rules the trusts; the financial oligarchy rules the country. This is simply another organization of one and the same clique. It is understandable that in these circumstances the earlier opposition to the idea of “state socialism” (i.e., state capitalism) should vanish. By transferring management of the state-capitalist trust to a formally independent state (we have in mind economic regulation) in exchange for a guaranteed income, finance capital changes nothing essential. But it can expect certain advantages. These advantages are tied directly to the imperialist policy. We have already noticed that external competition begins to play an enormous role. The instruments of such competition are not only dumping and purely economic pressure but also the pressure of armed force – of war, in the final analysis. Hence the question of military might. Contemporary warfare differs completely from the wars of previous times: from an economic viewpoint the issue is no longer just where to acquire the money, but one of financial and industrial mobilization – a question of converting a “peacetime economy” into a “war economy” (Friedenswirtschaft und Kriegswirtschaft). “In economic terms war used to be a problem of state finances. But now the state is omnipotent. Thus, its operation does not appear outwardly in the form of an enterprise (Unternehmung), and it no longer faces a financial-economic problem, or a problem of money; instead the natural substance of the entire national economy is mobilized for war.”[32] The question of mobilizing the entire “natural-economic substance” is one of an organization directly subordinated to the control of the state power. The more organized the state-capitalist trust, the greater the intervention of state power, the larger the share of output by the state’s own enterprises, and the more powerful the role of state banks, which regulate the circulation of money and credit, the more battle-worthy is this gigantic unit and the greater are the profits expected by the fortunate citizens of the glorious fatherland. “Per Sozialismus gehort zu den Mitteln der ‘Kriegsfuhrung’” (“Socialism in an instrument for the conduct of war”), exclaims the socialist renegade Edmund Fisher, taking the extreme form of state intervention to represent socialism.[33]

Such are the most general causes of the “change of attitude” among the leading representatives of bourgeois “public opinion.” The remaining opposition to “statification” comes from the ranks of commercial capital, a branch of activity whose importance is declining and whose functions become redundant given direct control by the state.

The war has caused state-capitalist relations of production to mature rapidly. War is accompanied not only by tremendous destruction of productive forces: in addition, it provides an extraordinary reinforcement and intensification of capitalism’s immanent developmental tendencies. There is no doubt that the war has caused an entire “industrial revolution” and has revolutionized (in this conditional sense) the economic foundation, destroying with colossal speed those capitalist relations that had already become outdated. Of course, many of these changes were due to the specific needs and tasks of the war, and will die out as soon as the protracted, superhuman massacre comes to an end. But many will also remain, for in the form of state-capitalist trusts and under threat of its own destruction, capitalism must inevitably approach an epoch of one war after another.[34]

Let us begin with changes in the basic sphere of economic life, that of production.

From the early epoch of capitalism and continuing right through the stage of industrial capitalism certain rudimentary forms have persisted that can now be absorbed as living cells of the state economy. We have in mind the domain lands, the forest industry, and state factories. Compared with the sphere lying beyond the possessions of the state, these forms are numerically insignificant. But the state forest industry is of considerable importance. Take the German data as an illustration. In 1900 timber was distributed among the different categories of ownership as follows:

Crown timberState timberTimber owned
jointly by the
state and others
Municipalities
257,3024,430,09029,7932,258,090
InstitutionsAssociationsPrivateTotal [35]
211,015306,2146,503,36513,995,869

The mining industry should also be noted, for here, too, the state has retained a certain position.

Much more important, however, are the ever-multiplying attempts to establish state monopolies in the realm of production. There can be no doubt that this type of state intervention has the most “brilliant” future. To the general considerations we have already mentioned another must be added, having acquired particular significance during the war. We have in mind the need for an enormous increase in state revenues. The costs of the war are so enormous (including payment of state debts, interest payments on state loans, assistance to the wounded and orphans, etc., reconstruction of the depleted military apparatus on an expanded scale, etc.) that to cover them over a period of several years will require, and is already requiring, a total reconstruction of the state budget. At a minimum the income of the warring states must be increased twofold, possibly more. The immediate problem of state finances therefore assumes colossal and unprecedented dimensions. As a rule, state revenues can be classified according to the following categories: revenues from the state’s own enterprises (e.g., the forest industry, mining, state factories, railways, etc.), direct taxes, indirect taxes (including tariffs), and state monopolies. Revenues from the state’s own enterprises are relatively small; direct taxes are objectionable to the bourgeoisie; and an increase in indirect taxes (and tariffs), which all governments practice con amore, meets with the stubborn resistance of the proletariat.[36] Nothing remains but recourse to the introduction of state monopolies over the production of a number of products: the tobacco monopoly, monopoly in the production of cigars and cigarettes, monopolies in alcoholic beverages, kerosene, matches, electrical energy, coal and iron, potassium, gas for lighting, certain metals, etc. These are the branches of production in which monopolization encounters the least difficulties and has already occurred in several states.

Monopolization is also to be expected in war industry, that is, the industries working for the army and the navy (building battleships, cannon, etc.). Unproductive from the viewpoint of social development, this branch of production will grow in importance. Far from the “ultra-imperialist” idyll of Kautsky, we face a period of more acute competition on the part of state-capitalist trusts.[37] The transitional form between the “private capitalist enterprise” (or trust) and the pure type of state enterprise is the so-called “mixed enterprise” (“gemischte Betriebe”). Recently this form has begun to appear with growing frequency, and there is every likelihood that it will spread rapidly. Essentially the state cooperates here with a private capitalist enterprise or, more often, with a capitalist organization (a trust, syndicate, cartel, etc.). The merger is achieved through “share holding” (or “participation”): the state purchases a portion of the shares of the enterprise in question, the balance being held by the usual trust. Thus, the state and an entrepreneurial economic organization become co-owners of one and the same productive unit. Over the course of time this intermediate type will understandably give way to the pure form of state enterprise. The mechanism for this process is very simple: either the state becomes the owner of a growing portion of the shares, or else the shareholders are converted into mere recipients of a certain fixed income, being prevented from interfering directly in the production process, which is left to the control of the enlightened and appropriately trained imperialist bureaucracy.[38]

These are the basic and most established forms of state intervention in the sphere of production. There is a multiplicity of other measures that, to a greater or lesser degree, curtail the “free disposal” of private property. Although these measures by no means cause a loss in all cases for the aforesaid property owners, they do place production under control of the all-seeing eyes of the state. In the case of every belligerent country, those enterprises working for so-called “national defense” have been subjected to such control. In Germany, where the English blockade has increased the tendency toward regulation of the economy to an extreme , this control has been extended to several other production branches.[39] If, for example, a special ‘’Reichsverteilungstelle’’ not only distributes the finished product – sugar, shall we say – but also determines precisely how much sugar must be produced, by what date, and where to deliver it, then, under these conditions, the arbitrariness of the private entrepreneur or syndicate gives way to “state discretion.” We have, in consequence, a limitation on production and sales. Occasionally the state goes further and joins the different production groups together in a single complex for the sake of greater production planning (as was the case, for instance, in the German coal industry).[40] Finally, there is an infinite number of rules that regulate the production process itself (requiring a certain method of production, the use of specified raw materials, etc.). “All of these measures” – to quote Professor Hatchek – “convert the producer and the seller into social functionaries” (the worthy professor neglects only to mention the indecent “compensation” these syndicated “social functionaries” receive).

In these ways state power absorbs virtually every branch of production. Not only does it preserve the general conditions of the exploitative process but, in addition, the state increasingly becomes a direct exploiter, organizing and directing production as a collective, joint capitalist.

A similar process can be observed in the sphere of circulation.

Let us begin by considering the technical-material framework of the circulation process: the railways, telegraph, telephone, underwater cables, and the postal organization as a whole.

Here “statification” occurred earlier than in other areas. The reasons for statification of the railways were typical. Beside the economic reasons (the enormity of the capital to be advanced, the low rate of profit at the outset, etc.), both fiscal and military-strategic motives were operative. Although much later than other countries, England brought the railways under the Treasury, owing to the influence of the “great war.” As with protectionism, the creation of a standing army, the curtailment of individual freedoms, and so forth, the transition was also made to a state railway industry. The relative “weight” of state railways as a percentage of total track length is as follows: Belgium, 90.8%; Germany, 92.5%; Denmark, 55.6%; Italy, 77.8%; the Netherlands, 56.3%; Norway, 84.2%; Austria, 80.4%; European Russia, 65.5%; Switzerland, 71.9%; etc. France, Portugal, and Sweden have railways of the “mixed” type. As for the telegraph, only in America does a private telegraph play a major role, state telegraphs being the norm elsewhere. The cable network is mainly in the hands of private companies, but the state’s share is growing. There can be no doubt that the influence of the war is very forceful in this respect: in the name of “national defense,” and so forth, an energetic policy of statification is being implemented in all of these branches.

The skeleton of the circulatory process is therefore largely in the hands of the state. But the very process of circulation is itself passing more and more into state hands. Consider, for example, state trade monopolies. Generally speaking, these monopolies were introduced for the same reasons as those in the sphere of production: from a negative viewpoint, the growing “collectivist” character of capitalist relations; more positively, the financial and strategic considerations that compel the bourgeoisie to centralize economic relations at the level of the “fatherland.” In cases in which a production monopoly is difficult to establish, for one reason or another, the state assumes the exclusive right to sell the particular product and to set its own prices.

There is no doubt that trade monopolies represent a step toward further intrusion of state control into the realm of production. The only difference is that in this case intervention begins, so to speak, at the other end.

The joint-stock form of enterprise adds the possibility in this sphere as well of creating “mixed” enterprises, whose shareholders are public-law institutions (the state, municipalities), on the one side, and commercial-industrial organizations, on the other. In time of war a similar role is being played in Germany by the numerous “Kriegsrohstoffgesellschaften” (“war material societies”), which have complete authority (under the control of state power) to centralize all available supplies of different types of goods and to distribute them in accordance with definite regulations, established either by the state (e.g., rubber, benzine, metals, leather, etc.) or by “Reichsverteilungsstellen” (“imperial allocation offices”), which handle the allocation of commodities throughout the empire. Numerous organizations are obliged to supply commodities; others are obliged to accept them; and prices are fixed by the state. Finally, an extreme form of state intervention is the system of confiscation (consider, for instance, the activity of the German government in supplying the population with food products and the so-called “food dictatorship”). Here, too, several syndicate organizations cooperate with the organs of state and local government. As a result, the anarchic commodity market is largely replaced by organized distribution of the product, the ultimate authority again being state power.

Of course, many of these forms must also die out with the advent of normal conditions for the economic process. The dreams of certain ideologists of imperialism (dreams of so-called “Magasinierung,” or the establishment of gigantic state warehouses of different kinds of products with the simultaneous near-isolation of the state economy – in short, dreams of economic “autarky”) are absolutely Utopian.[41] But the general tendency of growing intervention by the state remains, even though its theoretical limits are impossible to establish.

If we turn now from the circulation of commodities to the circulation of money and the sphere of credit, we find the exact same process. The need for the state to regulate the entire process of monetary circulation is also made dramatically evident in time of war. Financial mobilization presupposes the colossal might of state central banks, which gather up virtually the entire gold supply of the country. The concrete constellation of monetary circulation depends primarily on the policy of the state bank, the quantity of notes it puts into circulation, etc. The same is true of credit relations. In Germany the state bank has also been supported by the “loan offices” (Darlehenskassen), which are subordinate to the bank and were specially created for the war. Besides accepting all manner of paper securities, these state institutions are also designed to grant credit, commodities[42] being accepted as security. Thus, something in the nature of a mutual guarantee, or an ever-expanding “community of interests,” arises between the state power and different circles of the bourgeoisie, as the representatives of economic life. Within the same sphere this mutual guarantee might take many different forms. The role of state loans is especially important. (The “success” of internal loans is highly dependent on one condition, namely, that capital cannot find areas for investment because the productive base has been narrowed owing to the war. Analysis of the sources of the payments makes it clear that the “popular” character of this success is pure fantasy.) If the capitalists give up their capital to the state, they also become shareholders in the whole aggregate of state enterprises, in the broad sense of the word; for the fixed rate of interest they receive represents a portion of the state’s general revenues. The more extensive the internal loan operations are, the more closely are all the branches of production tied economically to the state power. This tie originates and is accomplished in the sphere of circulation. The supreme regulator is the state bank.

It is interesting that the structure of the latter institution is not the same in all countries. In some cases there is a purely state institution; in others, an enterprise of the “mixed type.” The German Imperial Bank is one of a mixed nature. As a joint-stock society it is directed by state officials, who are appointed by the Emperor on the advice of the Bundesrat.[43] The “nature” of this bank has even given rise to several theoretical discussions on the theme of whether it is a state institution – that is, whether it is an institution of a public-law nature or a simple joint-stock company of a private-law nature.

In this connection we should also remember the so-called regulation of consumption. In fact, this sphere belongs entirely to circulation. It is a process of distributing goods, not of consuming them, for the latter lies beyond the limits of any economic investigation. We have in mind as well the numerous ration cards and other measures: cards for bread, butter, meat, etc.

In certain countries the intervention of state power has assumed enormous dimensions. In Germany it has led to regulated distribution of all food products and to “communist” mass meals (“Massenspeisungen”). This type of state intervention, however, is the least stable; and there is no doubt that it will disappear with the end of the war and overcoming Germany’s economic isolation.

It remains for us to look at the state’s foreign economic policy. Under this heading belong, first and foremost, all possible types of prohibitions and limitations on imports and exports, including the entire system of tariff policy, trade agreements, support for “national industries” abroad, premiums of all sorts, the search for concessions and profitable lending opportunities, etc., plus direct plunder, or seizing the territory of someone else’s “fatherland” for monopolistic exploitation by one’s “own” finance capital, which is the essence of an imperialist policy.

Now let us summarize. In total contrast to the state in the epoch of industrial capitalism, the imperialist state is characterized by an extraordinary increase in the complexity of its functions and by an impetuous incursion into the economic life of society. It reveals a tendency to take over the whole productive sphere and the whole sphere of commodity circulation. Intermediate types of mixed enterprises will be replaced by pure state regulation, for in this way the centralization process can advance further. All the members of the ruling classes (or, more accurately, of the ruling class, for finance capitalism gradually eliminates the different subgroups of the ruling classes, uniting them in a single finance-capitalist clique) become shareholders, or partners in a gigantic state-enterprise.[44] From being the preserver and defender of exploitation, the state is transformed into a single, centralized, exploiting organization that is confronted directly by the proletariat, the object of exploitation. In the same way as market prices are determined by the state, the workers are assigned a ration sufficient for the preservation of labor power. A hierarchically constructed bureaucracy fulfils the organizing functions in complete accord with the military authorities, whose significance and power steadily grow. The national economy is absorbed into the state, which is constructed in a military fashion and has at its disposal an enormous, disciplined army and navy. In their struggle the workers must confront all the might of this monstrous apparatus, for their every advance will be aimed directly against the state: the economic and the political struggle cease to be two categories, and the revolt against exploitation will signify a direct revolt against the state organization of the bourgeoisie.

All of these developments lie in the near future, unless a social catastrophe occurs before the pure type of economic relations we have been describing can take shape.

It is easy to qualify in socio-economic terms the mode of production whose undeveloped form is represented by the contemporary Kriegssozialismus, i.e., the militarization of almost every branch of industry. Many bourgeois theorists speak of state socialism. Professor Krahmann, for example, whom we have cited previously, writes:

The powerful influence of all the means currently employed to support the state and defend the Fatherland, means that have been adopted by the state out of military considerations, will be to move us . .. much nearer to state socialism. But this change will not occur in the way which some have dreaded and for which others have hoped. This is not a loose international, but a nationally consolidated, socialism that we are approaching. It is not a democratic communism; still less is it an aristocratic class government: it is a nationalism that reconciles classes [45]

And the revisionist E. Fisher, in addition to claiming that “Socialism is essentially nothing but the carrying over of the state idea (Staatsgedankens) into the national economy and social life in general,” tries his utmost to find socialism, referring to monopolization of the various branches of production with such strange names as “electrical socialism,” “water socialism,” and so forth.[46] These misleading phrases obscure the reality of the matter, namely, that in “war socialism” class contradictions not only persist but reach their maximum intensity. In the ideal type of imperialist state the process of exploitation is not hidden by any secondary forms: the mask of a supraclass institution that looks after everyone alike is torn away from the state. This is the basic fact, and it thoroughly demolishes the arguments of the renegades. For socialism is regulated production, regulated by society, not by the state (state socialism is about as useful as leaky boots); it is the elimination of class contradictions, not their intensification. On its own, the regulation of production is far from signifying socialism: it occurs in every familial economy, among every slave-owning natural-economic group. What we in fact expect in the near future is state capitalism. A single protest might be raised against such a designation, namely, that the logical extreme and pure type of the relations now emerging would entail the elimination of hired labor. The worker would receive rations, “aliments,” not a monetary equivalent of the value of labor power. Just as market prices are replaced by regulated distribution of the product, so the wage form would disappear and along with it hired labor as such. The worker would become a slave. And since hired labor represents one of the most characteristic features of capitalism, it is impossible to use the term capitalism to designate relations that involve the elimination of hired labor. Nevertheless, we would accept this complaint as being correct and would introduce some new designation for the type of relations now being formed only in one event – that is, if a single world economy were in existence. Insofar as this is not the case (for reasons we have discussed in Kommunist, a single world economy represents an impossible hope), and insofar as the anarchy of the world market remains, the categories of value and wages are also preserved – with the single difference that now the position of the separate enterprise has been taken by the state enterprise. The labor market will become the world market for labor, and the movement of workers from one state to another will gather momentum. Likewise, we must not think that the state will be able to establish whatever prices it dreams up, or that the law of labor value loses its significance, for it would be absurd to imagine a closed state and economic autarky. The pressure of the world market remains.

Thus, state capitalism is the completed form of a state-capitalist trust. The process of organization gradually removes the anarchy of separate components of the “national-economic” mechanism, placing the whole of economic life under the iron heel of the militaristic state.

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Toward a Theory of the Imperialist State by Nikolai Bukharin 1915 (marxists.org)