Tuesday, September 14, 2021

 

Rerun of supernova blast expected to appear in 2037


Reports and Proceedings

NASA/GODDARD SPACE FLIGHT CENTER

Hubble Image of Supernova in 2016 and 2019 

IMAGE: NOW YOU SEE THEM, NOW YOU DON'T. THREE VIEWS OF THE SAME SUPERNOVA APPEAR IN THE 2016 IMAGE ON THE LEFT, TAKEN BY THE HUBBLE SPACE TELESCOPE. BUT THEY'RE GONE IN THE 2019 IMAGE. THE DISTANT SUPERNOVA, NAMED REQUIEM, IS EMBEDDED IN THE GIANT GALAXY CLUSTER MACS J0138. THE CLUSTER IS SO MASSIVE THAT ITS POWERFUL GRAVITY BENDS AND MAGNIFIES THE LIGHT FROM THE SUPERNOVA, LOCATED IN A GALAXY FAR BEHIND IT. CALLED GRAVITATIONAL LENSING, THIS PHENOMENON ALSO SPLITS THE SUPERNOVA'S LIGHT INTO MULTIPLE MIRROR IMAGES, HIGHLIGHTED BY THE WHITE CIRCLES IN THE 2016 IMAGE. THE MULTIPLY IMAGED SUPERNOVA DISAPPEARS IN THE 2019 IMAGE OF THE SAME CLUSTER, AT RIGHT. THE SNAPSHOT, TAKEN IN 2019, HELPED ASTRONOMERS CONFIRM THE OBJECT'S PEDIGREE. SUPERNOVAE EXPLODE AND FADE AWAY OVER TIME. RESEARCHERS PREDICT THAT A RERUN OF THE SAME SUPERNOVA WILL MAKE AN APPEARANCE IN 2037. THE PREDICTED LOCATION OF THAT FOURTH IMAGE IS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE YELLOW CIRCLE AT TOP LEFT. THE LIGHT FROM SUPERNOVA REQUIEM NEEDED AN ESTIMATED 10 BILLION YEARS FOR ITS JOURNEY, BASED ON THE DISTANCE OF ITS HOST GALAXY. THE LIGHT THAT HUBBLE CAPTURED FROM THE CLUSTER, MACS J0138.0-2155, TOOK ABOUT FOUR BILLION YEARS TO REACH EARTH. THE IMAGES WERE TAKEN IN NEAR-INFRARED LIGHT BY HUBBLE'S WIDE FIELD CAMERA 3. view more 

CREDIT: CREDITS: IMAGE PROCESSING: JOSEPH DEPASQUALE (STSCI)

It's challenging to make predictions, especially in astronomy. There are however, a few forecasts astronomers can depend on, such as the timing of upcoming lunar and solar eclipses and the clockwork return of some comets.

Now, looking far beyond the solar system, astronomers have added a solid prediction of an event happening deep in intergalactic space: an image of an exploding star, dubbed Supernova Requiem, which will appear around the year 2037. Although this rebroadcast will not be visible to the naked eye, some future telescopes should be able to spot it.

It turns out that this future appearance will be the fourth-known view of the same supernova, magnified, brightened, and split into separate images by a massive foreground cluster of galaxies acting like a cosmic zoom lens. Three images of the supernova were first found from archival data taken in 2016 by NASA's Hubble Space Telescope.

The multiple images are produced by the monster galaxy cluster's powerful gravity, which distorts and magnifies the light from the supernova far behind it, an effect called gravitational lensing. First predicted by Albert Einstein, this effect is similar to a glass lens bending light to magnify the image of a distant object.

The three lensed supernova images, seen as tiny dots captured in a single Hubble snapshot, represent light from the explosive aftermath. The dots vary in brightness and color, which signify three different phases of the fading blast as it cooled over time.

"This new discovery is the third example of a multiply imaged supernova for which we can actually measure the delay in arrival times," explained lead researcher Steve Rodney of the University of South Carolina in Columbia. "It is the most distant of the three, and the predicted delay is extraordinarily long. We will be able to come back and see the final arrival, which we predict will be in 2037, plus or minus a couple of years." 

The light that Hubble captured from the cluster, MACS J0138.0-2155, took about four billion years to reach Earth. The light from Supernova Requiem needed an estimated 10 billion years for its journey, based on the distance of its host galaxy.

The team's prediction of the supernova's return appearance is based on computer models of the cluster, which describe the various paths the supernova light is taking through the maze of clumpy dark matter in the galactic grouping. Dark matter is an invisible material that comprises the bulk of the universe's matter and is the scaffolding upon which galaxies and galaxy clusters are built.

Each magnified image takes a different route through the cluster and arrives at Earth at a different time, due, in part, to differences in the length of the pathways the supernova light followed.

"Whenever some light passes near a very massive object, like a galaxy or galaxy cluster, the warping of space-time that Einstein's theory of general relativity tells us is present for any mass, delays the travel of light around that mass," Rodney said.

He compares the supernova's various light paths to several trains that leave a station at the same time, all traveling at the same speed and bound for the same location. Each train, however, takes a different route, and the distance for each route is not the same. Because the trains travel over different track lengths across different terrain, they do not arrive at their destination at the same time.

In addition, the lensed supernova image predicted to appear in 2037 lags behind the other images of the same supernova because its light travels directly through the middle of the cluster, where the densest amount of dark matter resides. The immense mass of the cluster bends the light, producing the longer time delay. "This is the last one to arrive because it's like the train that has to go deep down into a valley and climb back out again. That's the slowest kind of trip for light," Rodney explained.

The lensed supernova images were discovered in 2019 by Gabe Brammer, a study co-author at the Cosmic Dawn Center at the Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, in Denmark. Brammer spotted the mirrored supernova images while analyzing distant galaxies magnified by massive foreground galaxy clusters as part of an ongoing Hubble program called REsolved QUIEscent Magnified Galaxies (REQUIEM).

He was comparing new REQUIEM data from 2019 with archival images taken in 2016 from a different Hubble science program. A tiny red object in the 2016 data caught his eye, which he initially thought was a far-flung galaxy. But it had disappeared in the 2019 images.

"But then, on further inspection of the 2016 data, I noticed there were actually three magnified objects, two red and a purple," he explained. "Each of the three objects was paired with a lensed image of a distant massive galaxy. Immediately it suggested to me that it was not a distant galaxy but actually a transient source in this system that had faded from view in the 2019 images like a light bulb that had been flicked off."

Brammer teamed up with Rodney to conduct a further analysis of the system. The lensed supernova images are arranged in an arc around the cluster's core. They appear as small dots near the smeared orange features that are thought to be the magnified snapshots of the supernova's host galaxy.

Study co-author Johan Richard of the University of Lyon in France produced a map of the amount of dark matter in the cluster, inferred from the lensing it produces. The map shows the predicted locations of lensed objects. This supernova is predicted to appear again in 2042, but it will be so faint that the research team thinks it will not be visible.

Catching the rerun of the explosive event will help astronomers measure the time delays between all four supernova images, which will offer clues to the type of warped-space terrain the exploded star's light had to cover. Armed with those measurements, researchers can fine-tune the models that map out the cluster's mass. Developing precise dark-matter maps of massive galaxy clusters is another way for astronomers to measure the universe's expansion rate and investigate the nature of dark energy, a mysterious form of energy that works against gravity and causes the cosmos to expand at a faster rate.

This time-delay method is valuable because it's a more direct way of measuring the universe's expansion rate, Rodney explained. "These long time delays are particularly valuable because you can get a good, precise measurement of that time delay if you are just patient and wait years, in this case more than a decade, for the final image to return," he said. "It is a completely independent path to calculate the universe's expansion rate. The real value in the future will be using a larger sample of these to improve the precision."

Spotting lensed images of supernovae will become increasingly common in the next 20 years with the launch of NASA's Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope and the start of operations at the Vera C. Rubin Observatory. Both telescopes will observe large swaths of the sky, which will allow them to spot dozens more multiply imaged supernovae.

Future telescopes such as NASA's James Webb Space Telescope also could detect light from supernova Requiem at other epochs of the blast. The team's results will appear on September 13 in the journal Nature Astronomy.

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The Hubble Space Telescope is a project of international cooperation between NASA and ESA (European Space Agency). NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Maryland, manages the telescope. The Space Telescope Science Institute (STScI) in Baltimore, Maryland, conducts Hubble science operations. STScI is operated for NASA by the Association of Universities for Research in Astronomy in Washington, D.C.

Media Contacts:

Claire Andreoli
NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center

Donna Weaver
Space Telescope Science Institute, Baltimore, Maryland

Ray Villard
Space Telescope Science Institute, Baltimore, Maryland

Science Contacts:

Steven A. Rodney
University of South Carolina, Columbia, South Carolina

Gabriel Brammer
Cosmic Dawn Center/Niels Bohr Institute/University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark

Release:

NASA, ESA, University of South Carolina, Cosmic Dawn Center/Niels Bohr Institute/University of Copenhagen

FEMICIDE

 Covid-19 pandemic dramatically increased maternal mortality in Mexico


Study shows COVID-19, hemorrhage and hypertension were leading causes of maternal deaths in a one-year period

Peer-Reviewed Publication

TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY

Being pregnant in Mexico during the pandemic had deadly consequences for many, with a new study from Texas A&M University Health Science Center (Texas A&M Health) showing an increase of 60 percent maternal mortality between Feb. 2020 and Feb. 2021.

Published in the journal BMC Public Health, the research study used public health data from Mexico’s General Office of Health Information to estimate changes in the maternal mortality ratio due to COVID-19 infections and changes in care resulting from efforts to control the pandemic.

Maternal mortality is considered a key indicator of health care system access and availability. Access to quality prenatal and postpartum care can prevent maternal deaths in many cases. However, pandemic control efforts and shifting of health care resources led to reductions in prenatal care visits and the amount of care women received after giving birth. Additionally, pregnancy can cause changes in respiratory and immune function. This could affect the severity of COVID-19 infections and lead to poorer outcomes.

Genny Carrillo, MD, ScD, associate professor at the Texas A&M School of Public Health, and researchers from hospitals and public health agencies in Mexico analyzed data including official death certificates, a national epidemiological surveillance database, and a weekly report of women with diagnosed or suspected COVID-19 who were pregnant or had recently given birth. These data included information on age, ethnicity, diagnosis codes, insurance status and other factors. The researchers analyzed the data to calculate the number of maternal deaths per 100,000 births and compared that ratio to previous years. Additionally, they focused on maternal deaths directly linked to COVID-19.

The analysis found more than 1,000 maternal deaths in Mexico during the study period, which amounted to an increase in maternal mortality of nearly 60 percent. This contrasts with a decrease in the maternal mortality ratio seen in Mexico between 2018 and 2019. The researchers found that COVID-19 was the leading cause of maternal death during the study period. The lethality of COVID-19 in this group was notably higher than that for the United States. There was also an increase in deaths related to hemorrhage and hypertension during the study period.

The higher proportion of COVID-19 deaths could be attributed to difficulties in getting intensive care access. Other mortality causes, though not directly related to COVID-19, could be due to changes in health care access during the pandemic. Timely and high-quality prenatal and postpartum care can identify and treat health conditions like hypertension that can lead to poorer outcomes. However, the increased demand for care placed a heavy burden on Mexico’s health care system, making it challenging for many to get needed care.

This study found that the COVID-19 pandemic dramatically increased maternal mortality in Mexico. These findings highlight the importance of timely prenatal care and point to web-based and telemedicine’s value in improving care when in-person care is limited.

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Turning 65 means a lot for Americans’ wallets, health spending study finds


Out-of-pocket costs drop sharply after Medicare eligibility at age 65, especially for those with the highest bills

Peer-Reviewed Publication

MICHIGAN MEDICINE - UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN

Lowering the age when older adults can enroll in Medicare might save them a lot of money, even if the age drops only a year or two from the current age of 65, a new study suggests.

Such a change, currently being discussed in Washington, D.C., could especially affect the small percentage of people in their early 60s who spend a major chunk of their disposable income on health costs, according to the new University of Michigan research published in JAMA Health Forum.

The study looks at what people in their late 50s through early 70s spent out of their own pockets for health care, including co-pays, deductibles and costs that they had to bear because they didn’t have insurance for that type of service or any health insurance at all.

The average amount that an older adult paid out-of-pocket for health care dropped 27% from age 64 to age 66, even as incomes stayed about the same and average total health costs paid by insurance and individuals increased 5%.

The percentage of older adults who had no health insurance went from 5% at age 64 to almost none at age 66, reflecting an ongoing gap not addressed by the Affordable Care Act – including the expansion of Medicaid in most, but not all, states.

The researchers paid special attention to the percentage of older adults who reported that their health costs ate up more than 40% of the income they had left after paying for food and housing. These could include people with high deductibles in an employer-sponsored or ACA insurance plan, as well as those without insurance or without coverage for dental, vision or other types of care they used.

Nearly 9% of 64-year-olds fell into this “catastrophic” group. By age 66, the percentage had dropped by 35%.

The lack of Medicare benefits for some types of care, including dental, vision and hearing, may have contributed to the fact that 5.8% of 66-year-olds still spent more than 40% of their disposable income on health costs. Some of this could also reflect costs for those who chose traditional Medicare but didn’t purchase a Medigap plan.

John W. Scott, M.D., M.P.H., led the research team, which includes senior author John Z. Ayanian, M.D., M.P.P. and other members of the U-M Institute for Healthcare Policy and Innovation. Ayanian, the director of IHPI, is editor of JAMA Health Forum but played no role in the decision-making around the article’s acceptance and publication.

The data for the study came from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey for 2014 through 2018 and covered the eight years before Medicare eligibility (ages 57-64) and eight years after (65 to 73) for 24,700 survey participants. Thirteen percent of 64-year-olds had incomes low enough to qualify them to be covered by Medicaid; nearly all had transitioned to Medicare coverage by the time they turned 66.

“The financial burden of paying for health care—sometimes referred to as “financial toxicity”—is high for older adults in their 60s. With the rise in high-deductible commercial health insurance plans, simply having health insurance is not enough to protect patients from high out of pocket healthcare costs,” said Scott, an assistant professor of cardiac surgery. “Medicare really improves financial risk protection for older adults, and reducing the age of Medicare eligibility would go a long way in reducing the financial burden of health care spending for those who are not quite 65.”

Scott noted that when the team compared those in the pre-Medicare eligibility years with those in the post-Medicare eligibility years, the percentage who said that they had delayed seeking care because of cost dropped 17%. “Unaffordable care isn’t just bad for someone’s wallet, it’s bad for their health,” he said.

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JAMA Health Forum. 2021;2(9):e212531. doi:10.1001/jamahealthforum.2021.2531 https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama-health-forum/fullarticle/2784105

 

Largest population-based study of "lazy eye" reveals public health’s blind spots


Immigrants and ultra-orthodox men at greatest risk


Peer-Reviewed Publication

THE HEBREW UNIVERSITY OF JERUSALEM

Hebrew U. Professor Hagai Levine 

IMAGE: HEBREW U. PROFESSOR HAGAI LEVINE view more 

CREDIT: HEBREW UNIVERSITY

An estimated 1% to 5% of children worldwide have lazy eye-- a childhood condition where the vision does not develop properly.  It happens because one or both eyes are unable to build a strong link to the brain. It usually only affects one eye, and means that the child can see less clearly out of the affected eye and relies more on the "good" eye.  This condition responds well to treatment if begun early on.  However, by age 7, if the lazy eye is undiagnosed or left untreated, it can cause permanent visual damage, impair daily activities such as reading, walking or driving safely, and lead to social and financial deficits later on in life.

A team of Israeli researchers, led by Hebrew University of Jerusalem (HU’s) Professor Hagai Levine, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Medical Corps doctors Itay Nitzan and Maxim Bez, and Dr. Claudia Yahalom from Hadassah Medical Center’s Department of Ophthalmology tracked the prevalence of lazy eye among 1.5 million Israeli teens.  In addition to the prevalence of lazy eye among this population, the team found a link between the vision impairment, known medically as amblyopia, and socioeconomic factors.  Their findings, published today in the European Journal of Public Health, represent the largest population-based study to evaluate the prevalence of lazy eye among teens.

Beginning in infancy, Israeli children undergo several vision screenings to promptly diagnose lazy eye and prevent long-term visual disabilities.  All Israeli citizens have state-mandated medical insurance and treatment options at minimal costs are theoretically available to any child who needs them.  For the purposes of this study, the HU and IDF Medical Corps team analyzed medical records and socioeconomic data of 1.5 million male and female Israeli teens (aged 16.5-18 years) from the years 1993-2017.  These are potential military recruits who, when assessing their eligibility for military service, undergo mandatory health checks which include an eye exam, as well as information regarding their socioeconomic status (SES), such as years of schooling, country of birth, family income, and cognitive function scores (CFS).

Several key findings emerged from this date.  One percent of the teens had lazy eye (14,367 recruits) which is a problem since, at this late age not much can be done to correct the impairment.  That said, the incidence of amblyopia is on the decline: in 1993, 1.59% were diagnosed with lazy eye whereas that figured dropped twofold, to 0.87% in 2017. 

 Second, several characteristics were found to increase the odds of lazy eye, including lower socioeconomic class and scoring lower on cognitive function tests. This connection between socioeconomic factors and lazy eye might stem from a failure of parents to bring their children in for vision screening or to follow-through on the treatment plan.  “While the overall prevalence of amblyopia has decreased, being in the lowest socioeconomic status and having below average cognitive function scores increased the odds of lazy eye in both males and females,” Levine explained.

A third finding was a higher (double) prevalence of lazy eye among young men who grew up in ultra-orthodox settings as compared to those raised in secular communities.  A fourth, and intriguing takeaway, was the higher rate of lazy eye among teens born outside Israel compared to those born in Israel.  Specifically, immigrants born in the former USSR, North Africa and Ethiopia had a higher incidence of lazy eye, than did immigrant teens from other countries, or Israeli teens born to parents from the USSR, North Africa and Ethiopia.

“We’d like to see changes to Israel’s public health policy, specifically to increase allocations for vision screening and treatment compliance monitoring for those populations vulnerable to developing lazy eye,” concluded Yahalom, sharing that further research is warranted to better understand the barriers that create differences in lazy eye prevalence among various sectors in society.

DUH OH

Shop displays of e-cigarettes and smoking paraphernalia could undermine effectiveness of banning tobacco display

Highly visible displays of e-cigarettes and smoking related products found in almost all shops and supermarkets that sell tobacco

Peer-Reviewed Publication

BMJ

Efforts to discourage people from smoking by banning tobacco retail displays in shops and supermarkets could be weakened by prominent displays of electronic (e) cigarettes and smoking paraphernalia, suggests new research published in the journal Tobacco Control.

Researchers found that the vast majority of retailers that sell tobacco, albeit out of view, had prominent displays of e-cigarettes (used as a smoking cessation aid) and smoking paraphernalia, such as cigarette lighters.

Displays of tobacco products at the point of sale in retail stores are banned in many countries because of their potential link to increased smoking and higher susceptibility to smoking in children.

Twenty countries, including England, implemented tobacco point of sale display bans between 2001 and 2016 and increasingly they have been replaced with covered tobacco storage units often placed alongside tobacco signage and displays of e-cigarettes and smoking paraphernalia.

However, the extent of this potential problem is unknown because the visibility and placement of e-cigarette and smoking paraphernalia point of sale displays has not been described in detail.

A team of researchers from the universities of Bristol and Cambridge aimed to address this gap to inform future research by examining the impact of e-cigarette and smoking paraphernalia point of sale displays on tobacco smoking, particularly in children, as well as differences in visibility according to area of deprivation.

Researchers visited 166 stores in Bristol and Cambridge, of which 133 sold the relevant products and agreed to take part. These included small and large format stores of four supermarket chains and a randomly selected sample of convenience stores.

A standardised checklist was used to create a total visibility score for point of sale displays of e-cigarettes and smoking paraphernalia that were encountered, while other measures of visibility and placement were also captured.

Results showed that both e-cigarette and smoking paraphernalia point of sale displays were present in 96% of stores. These point of sale displays were highly visible across all stores with an average visibility score of 14.7 out of 17 for e-cigarettes and 12.7 out of 17 for smoking paraphernalia on the checklist.

Analysis of the results also revealed that the use of multiple display units was more common for e-cigarettes (53%) than for smoking paraphernalia (12%). Signage was present in most stores (62%) for e-cigarettes, but not for smoking paraphernalia (5%).

Visible pricing was present in most stores (70%) for e-cigarettes, but less so (45%) for smoking paraphernalia.

Most stores had smaller e-cigarette (74%) and smoking paraphernalia (93%) displays than their tobacco storage unit, and these were positioned next to it (49% and 50%, respectively).

Just over half (53%) of stores had some form of promotional material for e-cigarettes, with the most common types involving price (23%), ease of use (15%), and flavours (14%).

The researchers did not find any clear evidence of a relationship between visibility and deprivation status of the store’s location.

The authors acknowledged that having data from stores in only two cities could limit how generalisable its findings were. However, this is the first study (to their knowledge) to describe the visibility and placement of e-cigarettes and smoking paraphernalia in large tobacco retailers and a standardised measure of visibility was used.

They conclude: “E-cigarette and smoking paraphernalia point of sale displays are near ubiquitous and highly visible in supermarkets and convenience stores in two cities in England.

“The high frequency and visibility of these displays could be undermining the effectiveness of the tobacco point of sale display ban. Their impact on smoking in children merits urgent attention.”

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