Sunday, September 19, 2021

Primordial Black Holes the Size of an Atom: What New Experimental Evidence Suggests

Primordial Black Hole

Artistic interpretation of a primordial black hole formed in the first moments of the Big Bang. Credit: NASA / G. Bacon (STScI)

Since the earliest times, human beings have wanted to explain the most unpredictable and disturbing phenomena in the universe. Although the study of astronomy has been a constant in all civilizations, astronomical events of a more “unpredictable” nature, such as comets or eclipses, were considered an “omen of misfortune” and/or “actions of the gods.”

The fall of the Saxon king Harold II in 1066, during the Norman invasion of William the Conqueror, was attributed to the bad omen from the passage of a comet (later baptized as “Halley”). And during the battle of Simancas (Valladolid, Spain) between the troops of León Ramiro II and the Caliph Ad al-Rahman in 939, a total solar eclipse caused panic among the troops on both sides, delaying the battle for several days.

How would our ancestors have reacted, then, to the existence in the universe of objects – so-called black holes – capable of swallowing everything that fell into them, including light?

While the biggest black holes have been already detected and even photographed, there is now also feasible evidence – as I show in my recent study – for tiny black holes the size of potassium atoms (with a radius of about 0.23 nanometers, equivalent to 0.23 billionth of a meter). These atomic-sized black holes were formed in the first moments of the Big Bang and may even comprise the totality of the dark matter of the universe.

Taking photos

In 2019, a collaboration of eight radio telescopes located in different parts of the world was able to take the first photo of a gigantic black hole (6.5 billion times more massive than our Sun). It is located about 55 million light years from us (a light-year corresponding to a distance of about 9.5 trillion kilometers) at the center of the Messier 87 galaxy.

The italics of the word photograph is no coincidence: how can a photograph be taken of an object that catches light and, therefore, would not be able to be seen by cameras, which use light to create a picture? The answer is simple: we are not observing the object itself, but the remains of star that are being swallowed up by these black holes.

This stellar matter rotates at enormous velocities around the black hole and its brightness can be detected when it reaches temperatures of the order of a million degrees celsius. The disk of matter that surrounds the black hole is called the “accretion disk” and is considered the edge of the black hole – once it is passed, nothing can escape, something we call an event horizon.

Supermassive Black Hole M87 in Polarized Light

Image of a supermassive black hole located in the center of the galaxy M87. Credit: EHT Collaboration

In the image above you can see the accretion disk and the event horizon of the black hole located in M87.

Primordial black holes

Significant parts of the black holes in the universe were formed by the gravitational collapse of stars consuming all their fuel in their final stages: these are called “stellar black holes.” Not all stars will turn into black holes at the end of their lifetime; when the core of a star is less than two or three solar masses, a stellar black hole cannot be created.

That is, there exists a minimum stellar mass below which a star cannot collapse into a black hole. As an example, our Sun will never turn into a black hole at the end of its life, but other massive stars like the red supergiant Betelgeuse will inevitably become black holes.

There are also other black holes called “primitive” or “primordial” black holes, which – as their name indicates – were created in the first moments of the Big Bang, when the universe first began, and can theoretically possess any mass. They may range in size from a subatomic particle to several hundred kilometers.

And when it comes to black holes, supermassive ones emit practically no radiation, while the smallest ones emit the most radiation. But, how is this phenomenon possible: supermassive black holes that emit practically no radiation and trap everything, even light?

The answer was provided by physicist Stephen Hawking in the mid-1970s. He postulated that the quantum effects near the event horizon of a black hole might produce the emission of particles that could escape from it. That is, black holes that do not gain mass by any other means will progressively lose their mass and finally evaporate.

This Hawking radiation is more evident in low-mass black holes: the evaporation time of a million-solar-mass supermassive black hole is 36×10 to the power of 91 seconds (much longer than the current age of the universe).

On the other hand, a black hole with a mass equivalent to a 1,000-ton ship would evaporate in about 46 seconds.

In the last stages of a black hole’s evaporation, they would explode and generate a huge amount of gamma rays (a radiation even more intense than X-rays).

Capturing an atomic-sized primordial black hole

So how can atomic-sized holes be evidenced before they evaporate completely?

In the recent study of atomic-sized black holes, an astrophysical scenario is proposed where one of these tiny black holes is captured by a supermassive one. As the atomic-sized black hole approaches the event horizon of the supermassive one, the fraction of Hawking radiation that might be detected from the Earth gradually decreases, until it reaches the size of a ray of light.

The following animation shows the above process in more detail.

The capture of an atomic-sized primordial black hole by a supermassive black hole.

This beam is compatible with thermal gamma ray bursts (GRBs) already measured at astronomical observatories. It is these GRBs that constitute an experimental evidence for such tiny black holes, which are serious candidates for the dark matter of a yet unexplored and fascinating universe.

Written by Oscar del Barco Novillo, Profesor asociado en el área de Óptica, Universidad de Murcia.

This article was first published in The Conversation.The Conversation

National Day for Truth and Reconciliation is Sept. 30, but some provinces won't make it a stat holiday

Canada's first National Day for Truth and Reconciliation will be Sept. 30, but some provinces won't treat it as a paid day off. (CTV National News)

Jill MacyshonCTV National News Manitoba Bureau Chief

Anthony Vasquez-PeddieCTVNews.ca writer

Saturday, September 18, 2021 


WINNIPEG -- Much of Canada will observe a second holiday this month.

On Sept. 30, federal offices, banks and post offices will be closed to mark the first National Day for Truth and Reconciliation.

"The idea is really to set aside a day that we honour all the children who survived residential schools, as well as honour and recognize those who did not return," Brenda Gunn, academic and research director at the National Centre for Truth and Reconciliation, told CTV National News.

The new federal statutory holiday coincides with Orange Shirt Day, which was started in 2013 as a way to honour Indigenous children and educate Canadians about the impact the residential school system had on Indigenous communities.

Creating such a federal holiday was one of the 94 calls to action by the Truth and Reconciliation Commission back in 2015.

Many provinces and territories have followed the federal government's lead in marking in the day as a designated holiday and day off for students.

Private companies and organizations can decide if they want to honour optional or unofficial holidays, and provinces can also designate holidays.

However, Alberta, Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, Quebec and Ontario have chosen not to recognize Sept. 30 as a statutory holiday. It's a decision some say is callous, but not unexpected.

"It kind of goes along with that 'get over it' attitude that many Canadians have, but we must never forget, or we end up repeating our mistakes." Robert Kakakaway, a residential school survivor, told CTV News. "It should not be a time of celebration, but a time of education."


Kakakaway spent six years at Marieval Indian Residential School in Saskatchewan, where more than 700 unmarked graves were discovered in June.

Beyond the statutory holiday, work to recognize the damage done to Indigenous peoples through colonization continues. Dozens of First Nations have started searching for graves at former residential school sites, and across Canada more people are educating themselves to learn what reconciliation means.

“To our groups, reconciliation means, ‘How can I take action in my personal life and affect change within my own community?’,” explained Lori Abraham, Indigenous cultural program director at 1JustCity.

At the former Kamloops Indian Residential School, where a suspected 215 graves were found in May, members of the Tk'emlúps te Secwépemc First Nation will play an honour song on Sept. 30. It will be played at 2:15 P.T., coinciding with the number of graves that "shocked the world," the First Nation said.


What is basic income and which of Canada's main parties support it?

#UBI OR CERB BY ANY OTHER NAME

The Canada emergency response benefit renewed calls for establishing a national livable income program

With the success of CERB, there’s been a lot of buzz about whether Canada should introduce a national basic-income program. But experts — and parties — are divided on whether that’s the best way to address the needs of Canadians living below the poverty line. 4:48

When the federal government launched the Canada emergency response benefit (CERB) last year, it left some wondering whether it could lead to a lasting framework for a national basic income program — one that would help lift struggling Canadians out of poverty. 

While it was a temporary program, CERB provided a touchstone for many who wondered, if the country can create a standard livable wage during a pandemic, why stop there?

Port Elgin, Ont., resident Mini Jacques was one of many who reached out to Ask CBC to find out where the parties stand on basic income during this election.

"It doesn't seem like there's an even playing field for basic living," she said in an interview.

Mini Jacques, who is legally blind, receives $1,169 monthly from the Ontario Disability Support Program to cover all her expenses. Most of that goes towards her $1,022 rent. (Submitted by Mini Jacques)

"The government is saying that for CERB, people get $2,000 just to exist and yet … [we] haven't had a raise in disability for some time."

Jacques is blind and relies on the Ontario Disability Support Program for income. Her rent costs $1,022 monthly and she receives $1,169 through ODSP. That leaves her just $147 a month to cover the remaining necessities. 

She works part-time to supplement those benefits, but if she earns more than $200 monthly, half of her take home earnings over $200 are deducted from her income support.

Her rent is increasing, and she worries that her ODSP cheques won't increase at the same pace. She's 61 years old, and for now she said she's getting by with the help of friends and family.

What Jacques wants is for the government to create a basic income program that sets the same standard income for everyone who needs help — whether you're unemployed, disabled, or working but not earning enough to stay above the poverty line.

  • This story features a voter, like you, who got in touch with us. Send us your questions about the election. We are listening: ask@cbc.ca.

What is basic income?

What makes basic income different from other programs, such as income assistance or welfare, is that it comes with no strings attached. In the simplest terms, it's a regular payment without conditions, sent from the government to families and individuals.

    In Canada about 3.7 million people live below the poverty line, according to the 2019 Canada Income Survey. Statistics Canada considers people as living below the poverty line if they don't have enough income to cover the local cost of necessities such as food, clothing, footwear, transportation and shelter.

    Right now, struggling Canadians can access help support through a patchwork of federal, provincial and municipal programs.

    Health economist Evelyn Forget, a professor in the department of health sciences at the University of Manitoba in Winnipeg, said that basic income would replace many of those programs, and ideally cut out a lot of the confusing, bureaucratic red tape.

    Forget, the author of Basic Income for Canadians: from the COVID-19 emergency to financial security for all, is a firm believer in the benefits of basic income.

    She explained there are two types:

    • Universal basic income (UBI) means that everyone in a society — rich or poor — gets a monthly cheque for the same amount. At the end of the year, the government uses the tax system to balance out the scales and recoup that extra cash from the higher income earners who didn't end up needing it. 

    • Guaranteed basic income (GBI) is the system most people are referring to when they talk about basic income in Canada. It is an income-contingent system, meaning monthly payments only go to families and individuals with lower income.

    The CERB program was not, in fact, basic income, because there were conditions to qualify: Canadians were only eligible if they had earned at least $5,000 in the last year.

    Because the cost of living varies across Canada, there's no single income level that defines poverty. But Forget said generally, advocates have talked about setting guaranteed basic income at around $20,000 a year for a single person between the ages of 18 to 64. 

    Where has it been tested and how well did it work? 

    In the 1970s, the province tested an annual age for the working poor. What happened? 2:09

    Countries around the world, including Spain, Namibia, Brazil and Iran, have experimented with basic income, mostly through pilot projects and trial runs. 

    In Canada, Manitoba ran a pilot project called Mincome from 1974 to 1978 in the rural community of Dauphin.

    The idea was to test whether a no-strings attached wage would actually help the working poor by supplementing their income, or end up deterring them from working altogether.

    Forget studied the outcomes of that project and found that participants were less likely to be hospitalized and more likely to continue their education.

    She said for the most part, basic income did not discourage people from working. One of the groups who worked less were new mothers who, in the 1970s in Manitoba, would have only been entitled to a few weeks of parental leave.

    The other group that was disincentivized to work by basic income was young, unattached males. Forget discovered the reason those young men, often in their teens, were less likely to work was because basic income meant their families could afford to let them stay in school. Instead of dropping out to earn wages, they were able to get their high school diplomas. 

    "The fundamental idea behind basic income, I think, is solid," she said.

    "Unconditional money available to people allows them to make choices about their own lives, allows them to make better decisions about how to live their lives, and leads to better outcomes."

    More recently, Ontario introduced a basic income pilot project in 2017. Close to 4,000 people were enrolled and it was supposed to last three years, but was cancelled early following the election of Doug Ford's Progressive Conservative government. They said the program was too expensive. 

    A 2021 report by Canada's Parliamentary Budget Officer found that, if the federal government created a national basic income program similar to Ontario's, it would cost around $85 billion in 2021-2022 and cut poverty rates by almost half.

    "It costs a lot, no question about it," Forget said. 

    However, she added that a lot of that cost would be balanced out by eliminating the programs basic income would replace, which might include income assistance or various refundable tax credits.

    "A simplified process is always cheaper. It's always more efficient," she said.

    What are the disadvantages? 

    In 2018, the government of British Columbia asked a panel of experts to study the feasibility of a basic income for the province. The resulting report found that "the needs of people in this society are too diverse to be effectively answered simply with a cheque from the government."

    Panel chair David Green, a labour economist and a professor at the Vancouver School of Economics at the University of B.C., said the better solution is to reform the programs that already exist.

    "If our problem is really, the full heterogeneous, complex issue of poverty — how do we make a more just society — then, in many cases, sending people a cheque and hoping they will do better is not going to answer the problem," Green said.

    Green said it would be better to tackle issues head-on, targeting poor working conditions and low wages, reforming the disability assistance program and boosting rent assistance.

    Still, others believe basic income is the right solution for Canada. 

    Two of the calls for justice in the final report from the National Inquiry into Missing and Murdered Indigenous Women and Girls said Canada should establish a guaranteed livable income for all.

    Where do the main parties stand? 

    Liberal Leader Justin Trudeau, top left, Conservative Party of Canada Leader Erin O'Toole, top centre, Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet, top right, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh, bottom left, Green Party Leader Annamie Paul, bottom centre, and People's Party of Canada Leader Maxime Bernier. (CBC, Erin O'Toole/Creative Commons, CBC, CBC, Chris Young/The Canadian Press, CBC)

    Like economists, Canada's main parties are also divided on basic income, though none are promising universal basic income. Here's where they stand:

    The Green Party:  

    • Platform commits to establishing a guaranteed livable income program.

    • "The federal government would provide an initial base-level subsidy across the country, and an intergovernmental body would determine and administer the necessary supplemental amounts."

    The NDP: 

    • Platform commits to a guaranteed livable basic income.  

    • "New Democrats will work to expand all income security programs to ensure everyone in Canada has access to a guaranteed livable basic income." 

    • Would start by lifting seniors and people with disabilities out of poverty, and build on that to establish a basic income for all. 

    The Liberal Party: 

    • No platform commitment to basic income.

    • Strong support from within the party for a basic income program.

    • Liberal MP for Davenport, Julie Dzerowicz, tabled a bill calling for a national basic income strategy in 2021. The bill died at the dissolution of parliament when the election was called.

    The Conservatives:

    • No platform commitment to basic income.

    The Bloc Québécois: 

    • No platform commitment to basic income.

    The People's Party of Canada: 

    • No platform commitment to basic income.

    ABOUT THE AUTHOR

    Jaela Bernstien is a Montreal-based journalist reporting on news and current affairs. She has covered election campaigns, criminal trials, riots and natural disasters, and even once explored an ice-age cave.

    London, Ontario

    Entry-level labour shortage has flipped the power dynamic, says London recruiter


    LONDON IS THE CLASSIC MIDDLE CLASS CANADIAN CITY ACCORDING TO POLLSTERS, ACTUARIES, ADVERTISING COMPANIES, ETC, ETC,

    Companies raise wages to compete for entry and mid-level workers

    A 'Help Wanted' sign hangs in a store window. Job hunters can have their pick of entry and mid-level jobs right now, says London recruiter James Norris. (Mark Lennihan/Associated Press)

    A shortage of people willing and able to work entry and mid-level jobs has flipped the power dynamic between employers and job hunters, says James Norris. 

    The sales manager with Express Employment Professionals, a recruitment agency in London, Ont., believes that it has become an employee's market.   

    He said he's noted more change in the employment landscape over the last 12 months than over the rest of his six-year career in the industry. 

    The type of jobs where the employees are in the driver's seat, he says, are entry-level to mid-level ones.

    "So, if we're talking in kind of the $15.50 range up to about the $19, or maybe even $20 an hour range," says Norris. "That's a very competitive market because a number of companies — production, assembly, warehousing, distribution — they are all extremely busy right now as supply chain issues that had occurred over the pandemic have started to ease."

    He says this, coupled with consumers buying more, has created a demand for workers. 

    He's seeing that companies offering entry-level employment, or employment just above that, have upped their hourly rates a dollar or two more than pre-pandemic rates.

    James Norris, sales manager with Express Employment Professionals in London                                   (Submitted by James Norris)

    Employee shortage

    He says that employees left the service industry or entertainment sectors, which were influenced most by restrictions or lockdowns, looking for new careers due to the instability of their employment.  

    "I think another big factor in terms of individuals making a move or wanting to move to different companies or industries was a large part due to the way they felt they were treated or maybe the way they felt they were valued or not valued by their company," Norris said. 

    He thinks COVID-19 financial assistance could have also played a role.  

    Carolina Andrade agrees it has become a job hunter's market. She's a human resources manager for Meridian in Strathroy, which specializes in cast metal used in the transport industry.

    She says her company has struggled to find people to work general duty and die cast. In the past, Meridian has been able to rely on foreign workers, but that isn't an option right now, as a result of the pandemic. 

    "So, we have to rely only on people here," she says. "They sometimes are working, so we have to raise our salary to be able to compete with other companies." 

    "The companies that have increased their wages are the ones that are winning what [they] call ... the recruiting race," she said.

    At first, she said she thought people left the workforce because of things like Canada Emergency Response Benefit (CERB), but she doesn't think that's the case anymore. Now she believes her company has struggled to hire and retain people due to a highly competitive market. 

    PPC IN CPC BACKYARD
    Maxime Bernier attends Calgary ‘freedom rally’ in last weekend of federal campaign


    Police estimate around 1,000 people packed Central Memorial Park in Calgary on Saturday for an anti-vaccine mandate rally attended by People's Party of Canada Leader Maxime Bernier.

    1000 LESS VOTES FOR THE TORIES!
    AND UPC

    © Carolyn Kury de Castillo/Global News
    Maxime Bernier attends Calgary ‘freedom rally’ in last weekend of federal campaign

    The anger of the crowd was directed in equal parts at federal and provincial governments over COVID-19 restrictions.

    Some of those in attendance were former Conservative Party of Canada voters who have found a new home with the People's Party of Canada.


    Read more: Maxime Bernier visits southern Alberta during tour for People’s Party of Canada

    "Everything he said was exactly what I'm looking for -- being a parent, a business owner and a grandparent," said Susanne Muller, a Calgary hair salon owner.

    "We need our rights and we need our freedoms. We have all these other political leaders that seem to be following the same platform and he has a different platform."

    Carol Grant works in the oil and gas industry. She came to hear Bernier speak at the rally.

    "His platform is very important to me because he's pro-pipeline. He wants to fix the equalization formula. He wants to get rid of the carbon tax. He's all about freedom of choice," Grant said.

    Hundreds protest COVID-19 mandates at ‘freedom rally’ in Edmonton Saturday

    by News Staff
    POSTED SEP 18, 2021 

    Hundreds gather for a freedom rally in Edmonton on Sept. 18, 2021. (Credit: CityNews staff)

    EDMONTON (CityNews) ─ A few hundred protesters gathered outside the Alberta legislature Saturday afternoon for what organizers called a “freedom rally” in opposition of COVID-19 health measures.

    About 400 Edmontonians attended the “World Wide Rally for Freedom” − one of several planned demonstrations across Canada and the world.

    Protesters waved Canadian flags and held signs voicing their displeasure with various public-health measures.

    One of the handmade signs read “Give Me Liberty or Give Me Death.” Another read “Don’t Believe the Fake News,” echoing a sentiment often shared by former U.S. President Donald Trump.

    A scattering of purple People’s Party of Canada election posters could be seen throughout the crowd. The federal party led by Maxime Bernier has become associated with the anti-mandate movement.

    Other Canadian cities said to be hosting their own rallies − according to posters on the organizers’ website − were Vancouver, Calgary, Winnipeg, Toronto, Montreal and many more.

    Protests opposing COVID-19 vaccines, vaccine passports, curfews and other measures designed to curb the spread of the virus have become somewhat commonplace during the federal election

    Data shows People’s Party of Canada gathering large amount of online search interest in Alberta


    Adam Lachacz
    CTVNewsEdmonton.ca Digital Producer
    Follow | Contact
    Published Sept. 18, 2021 

    EDMONTON -

    In the past week, Albertans and residents of Saskatchewan have been searching for information about the People’s Party of Canada (PPC) the most on Google, according to data released by the search engine.

    Google Trends, a website analyzing popularity of queries people input into the search engine, says the PPC dominated search interest in federal political parties in the past week within Alberta.

    According to data released by Google, 34 per cent of searches in Alberta related to the PPC at the time of publication while the New Democratic Party (NDP) garnered 32 per cent of searches.

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    Twenty-one per cent of searches related to the Conservative Party and nine per cent of searches were for information about the Liberal Party. The Green Party received the lowest amount of search interest with only four per cent of searches.

    Search interest was dominated by the PPC since Sept. 5 until 10 days later when it started to switch on a daily basis between that party and the federal NDP.



    Nationally, the NDP received the highest amount of searches at the time of publication with 32 per cent while the PPC had 30 per cent of searches. The Conservative Party and Liberal Party had 21 and 10 per cent of search interest across the country in the past week, respectively.

    When it comes to federal political leaders, Google Trends says Justin Trudeau represented 54 per cent of search interest in Alberta within the past week. Erin O’Toole garnered 21 per cent of interest while Jagmeet Singh and Maxime Bernier received 12 per cent and 9 per cent of search interest, respectively.

    Search interest for all the party leaders was highest on Sept. 10, the night of the only televised English debate.




    Search interest for the PPC in Alberta was driven primarily by rural areas, particularly in central and southern regions of the province. Data showed NDP search interest was highest in Athabasca, Fort MacLeod, Ponoka, Morinville, Edmonton, and Stettler.

    Search interest for the NDP was highest in the Northwest Territories, British Columbia, and Alberta.


    Founded in 2018 by Maxine Bernier, the party brands itself as a mix of “common sense, populism, classical conservatism and libertarianism.” Its platform includes withdrawing from the Paris Climate Accord, decreasing immigration, and reducing government involvement in the free market. The party has been criticized for harbouring racist views and legitimizing white nationalism.

    In the 2019 federal election, the PPC captured less than two per cent of the popular vote and its leader Maxime Bernier lost his own seat.

    According to the most recent Nanos Research's nightly tracking data, conducted for CTV News and the Globe and Mail and released on Saturday, the PPC saw a slight dip from 7.5 per cent to 7.3 per cent.

    Polling shows the Liberals had a slight drop in support from 31.9 per cent to 31.3 per cent. The Conservatives saw a similar dip from 30.4 per cent to 29.2 per cent. The NDP are at 20.9 per cent, up from 20.3 per cent the previous day.

    According to Nanos election tracking for the prairie region specifically, polling shows 8 per cent of people surveyed from Sept. 10 to 14 would vote for the PPC – compared to 49 per cent Conservative, 23 per cent NDP, and 17 per cent support. From Aug. 18 to 22, PPC support was polled at 5 per cent.

    Environics Analytics: Where in Canada could the People's Party play spoiler to the Conservatives?


    'IT’S AN INDICATION OF INTEREST'

    For Rey Rosales, associate professor in the department of communications at MacEwan University, the Google Trends data is one indicator that can be used to gauge voter interest in a particular party that may not translate to votes.

    “It’s an indication of interest,” Rosales said.

    “(At this point) voters have been fed all kinds of information,” he added. “They’ve gone through a lot of awareness already, messages on social media and all kinds of channels. So search interest can show what people are looking at or considering.”

    Further, Rosales said that search interest can also show indicators of what people are looking at to validate their beliefs or inclinations in voting a certain way.

    On the flip side, search interest results only show what people are looking at. Rosales said that while the Liberals and Conservatives have low search rates in Alberta, it could be due to people seeing their messaging more and not needing further information.

    When it comes to northern Alberta, Rosales said the three ridings to watch for are Edmonton Centre, Mill Woods, and Griesbach. Outside of those ridings, Rosales said polling and data he’s seen is showing comfortable Conservative leads.

    “You can’t really find anything competitive in Alberta,” Rosales said. “Alberta is still dominated by blue.

    “There are only pockets of interest where ridings can be competitive,” he added.

    “In terms of the final numbers, the surging numbers of the PPC might take a little away from Conservatives but it will probably mean little difference. We shall see on election night.”

    3 Edmonton ridings to watch on election night

    One thing Rosales says he’s noted after seeing the search interest results is that people are clearly seeking out information about the PPC.

    “In Alberta, the party has the highest share of polling,” Rosales says. “So it shows a growing interest here.

    “Something is resonating, from their platform, messaging, or candidates,” he added. “They have messaging between hope and fear, of anxiety; limiting immigration, less (COVID) restrictions.

    “For people in rural areas those types of messages will tend to appeal to them.”
    NANOS METHODOLOGY

    A national random telephone survey (land-and cell-line sample using live agents) of 1,200 Canadians is conducted by Nanos Research throughout the campaign over a three-day period. Each evening a new group of 400 eligible voters are interviewed. The daily tracking figures are based on a three-day rolling sample comprising 1,200 interviews. To update the tracking, a new day of interviewing is added and the oldest day dropped. The margin of error for a survey of 1,200 respondents is ±2.8 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

    The respondent sample is stratified geographically and by gender. The data may be weighted by age according to data from the 2016 Canadian Census administered by Statistics Canada. Percentages reported may not add up to 100 due to rounding.

    For Prairie region polling, a national dual-frame (land+cell) random telephone survey is conducted nightly by Nanos Research throughout the campaign using live agents. This report is comprised of a comparison of two five-day periods of the election campaign, the first wave being between Aug. 18 and 22 and the second between Sept. 10 and 14, for voters in the Prairies.

    The margin of error for a survey of 376 and 422 respondents is ±5.1 percentage points and ±4.8 percentage points respectively, 19 times out of 20.

    With files from CTV News’ Brooke Taylor