Sunday, September 26, 2021

Russell: China goes after low-hanging coal fruit, the real challenge is at home

Reuters | September 23, 2021 

Coal. (Image from Pxhere, CC0)

(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, Clyde Russell, a columnist for Reuters.)


President Xi Jinping’s promise to end China’s financing of overseas coal-fired power plants was broadly welcomed by environmentalists, but the move should be seen as a first step rather than a major effort to mitigate climate change.

The Chinese leader used an address at the United Nations to state his country, the largest emitter of gases associated with climate change, would halt financing of coal-fired projects and boost help to developing countries to switch to cleaner renewable energy.

Given China is the largest financier of such projects, and an earlier commitment from Japan and South Korea to exit coal power projects, the move does call into question the viability of a large chunk of the world’s planned coal-fired plants.

Global Energy Monitor (GEM), a U.S.-based group that tracks coal power globally, told Reuters that 44 coal plants slated for an estimated $50 billion in Chinese financing could be impacted by the decision.



The pro-renewables think tank, Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis (IEEFA), said a review of coal power proposals in countries with significant project pipelines indicates 56% of the total capacity is being supported by China.

Among countries with large Chinese support for coal power projects are Indonesia, where about 54% of the 18 gigawatts (GW) of planned plants have Chinese backing, and Bangladesh, where 88% of about 10 GW are supported by Beijing.

It’s worth noting that several of these planned projects were already in difficulty prior to Xi’s announcement, with high costs relative to competing renewable technologies and battery storage, climate change concerns and domestic opposition to rising air pollution.

A massive rally in seaborne thermal coal prices to near all-time highs, and a similar spike in rival fossil fuel liquefied natural gas (LNG), will also undermine the case for coal-fired projects based on imported supplies, given the ever-present risk of price volatility, especially as the world transitions to cleaner energy.

Thus it is likely Xi’s commitment has sounded the death knell for many outstanding projects around the world because alternative financing outside of direct government support will be hard to find.

China’s own plants key

The question then becomes whether this is enough to make much difference to the outlook for coal-fired power.

If all the planned projects with Chinese backing are cancelled, this would remove about 50 GW from the coal-fired pipeline.

According to GEM data there are 296.66 GW of coal projects in the announced, pre-permitted and permitted phases globally, so the Chinese-financed total amounts to about one-sixth of these. And more than half of them, or about 163 GW, are inside China itself.

Of countries that aren’t reliant on Chinese financing, only India has a significant pipeline of coal plants, with 20.7 GW in the announced, pre-permitted and permitted stages.

What the numbers show then is that if Xi really wanted to make a difference to the pipeline of coal-fired power plants, he has far more to do at home that he has internationally.



China has 96.68 GW of coal-fired generation under construction, more than half the global total, and has 1,047 GW operating, which is almost exactly half of the world’s capacity.

China’s operating coal fleet is also roughly four times bigger than the fleets of either of the next two biggest coal-reliant countries, India with 233 GW and the United States with 232.8 GW.

U.S. coal generation is likely to continue its rapid de-commissioning in coming years, especially considering the decarbonisation commitment of President Joe Biden.

There is also a question over Indian coal-fired power given many of the existing power plants can’t compete economically with renewables. Recent history has shown that coal is the first to exit the system in periods of soft power demand.

Overall, China’s announcement that it will stop funding coal power projects overseas is a positive development in mitigating climate change. The real game-changer, though, would be a commitment to ending its pipeline of domestic coal-fired plants.

(Editing by Tom Hogue)

China energy body urges support for coal, oil firms to build clean power

09/24/2021 

FILE PHOTO: FILE PHOTO: A coal-fired heating complex in Harbin, Heilongjiang province, China



BEIJING (Reuters) - China's National Energy Administration (NEA) on Friday proposed providing support for coal and oil companies to build solar power and other clean energy generation projects with their current resources.

In a draft set of guidelines on deeper reform of the energy business environment, the NEA called for the promotion of integrated natural gas power and renewable energy projects, as well as coordinated development of fossil and renewable energy.

President Xi Jinping this week said China would stop building new coal-fired power stations overseas in Beijing's latest climate pledge, but the fossil fuel still accounts for the bulk of China's domestic energy consumption.

The NEA also advocated improvements in the long-term contract mechanism between energy companies and major energy users in order to ensure stable supply, without specifying what should be done.

The energy regulator said filing procedures for new energy projects should be simplified to promote the low-carbon transition.

"Power supply companies should strengthen power quality management... effectively reduce the time, frequency and impact of power outages," said the NEA.

The draft was released as companies from metal smelters to fertiliser makers have had to reduce production due to power rationing in several Chinese regions.

It is open to public feedback for 30 days.

(Reporting by Min Zhang and Tom Daly; Editing by Hugh Lawson)


'Coal Is Dead': New Global Pact Announced After China's Bold Step

"Consigning coal to history is crucial to avoiding catastrophic climate change."


Seven countries on Friday pledged they would cease building new coal power plants. 
(Photo: Shutterstock)

JULIA CONLEY
September 24, 2021

Just two days after Chinese President Xi Jinping announced the world's largest coal producer would stop funding overseas coal projects, seven countries on Friday pledged they would also cease building new coal power plants—the latest sign one of the world's dirtiest energy sources is on its way out.

"I call on more countries to come forward and sign up to this compact ahead of COP26, and play their part to limit global warming and keep 1.5 degrees alive."
—Alok Sharma, COP26

Chile, Denmark, France, Germany, Montenegro, Sri Lanka, and the U.K. signed the No New Coal agreement at the U.N. High-level Dialogue on Energy in New York, where officials this week aimed to gather more support for the pact at the U.N. Climate Change Conference (COP26) in November.

“Development of new coal-fired power plants must stop this year to achieve net zero emissions by 2050," said Dan Jørgensen, the Danish Minister of Climate, Energy and Utilities, in a statement. "That is why I am thrilled that we stand together with fellow ambitious countries with the aim to end construction of new coal-fired power plants. This energy compact is an important step on the way for a complete phase-out of coal power and consigning coal power to history at COP26. I encourage all governments to join this very important initiative."

According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), all emissions from coal power plants—the world's largest source of carbon emissions—must be eliminated by 2040 in order to keep the heating of the planet below 1.5C.

The No New Coal agreement requires countries to immediately stop approving permits and end new construction of "unabated coal-fired power generation projects by the end of the year," according to Bloomberg.

Noting that the seven countries signed on to the pact following Xi's announcement—which is expected to eliminate 40 gigawatts of new coal power and avoid as much as 235 million tons of carbon emissions—the climate action group 350.org said the agreement is a clear sign that "coal is dead."


"China’s decision is pretty much the end of public financing for coal,” Chris Littlecott, associate director of fossil-fuel transition at climate think tank E3G, told Bloomberg.
The No New Coal agreement comes four years after more than 40 countries signed onto the Powering Past Coal Alliance, which requires a commitment to phase out existing coal operations as soon as 2030 as well as a pledge to halt construction of new plants.

Alok Sharma, a U.K. lawmakers and president of COP26, applauded the countries' "bold leadership to cancel coal through the No New Coal Power Compact, demonstrating the positive impact that countries working closely together can have in generating climate action," noting that transitioning away from coal and towards renewable energy technology has increasingly been shown to be cost-effective as well as vital for the survival of the planet.

"Consigning coal to history is crucial to avoiding catastrophic climate change," said Sharma. "The cost of clean renewable technologies continues to fall, making coal expensive and uncompetitive. I call on more countries to come forward and sign up to this compact ahead of COP26, and play their part to limit global warming and keep 1.5 degrees alive."



The No New Coal initiative, along with China's announcement, has put countries around the world "on notice," Littlecott said.

"Governments can have confidence in committing to no new coal," Littlecott said. "The No New Coal Power Compact provides a space for them to step forward together."

Our work is licensed under Creative Commons (CC BY-NC-ND 3.0). Feel free to republish and share widely.

UN Launches Pledge to Stop Building New Coal Power Plants


Akshat Rathi
Fri, September 24, 2021

UN Launches Pledge to Stop Building New Coal Power Plants

(Bloomberg) -- Seven countries have signed a pledge initiated by the United Nations to stop building new coal power plants, with the aim to gather more signatures before the global climate summit COP26 in Glasgow next month.

The No New Coal agreement is the latest attempt to try and piece together a global phase-out of the dirtiest fossil fuel. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres wants to end the pipeline of new plants this year, while COP26 President Alok Sharma has said his goal for the summit is to “consign coal to history.” Chile, Denmark, France, Germany, Montenegro, Sri Lanka and the U.K. signed the latest pledge.

“Moving away from coal is not a death knell for industrialization, but rather a much better opportunity for green jobs,” said Damilola Ogunbiyi, chief executive officer of the UN-backed international organization Sustainable Energy for All. That’s “what will drive other countries to join,” she said.

A separate initiative launched in 2017, called the Powering Past Coal Alliance, sets a higher bar. It includes 41 countries that have committed to phasing out existing coal operations as soon as 2030 in many cases, on top of promising not to build new plants. An additional 40 nations outside the alliance don’t have a single coal power plant in the pipeline, according to environmental think tank E3G.

That means more countries were ready to commit to not building new coal plants, but not all were ready to phase out existing operations. The No New Coal pact adds a missing step in the ladder for such nations by allowing them to make an easier pledge in the hope that it will ultimately accelerate the end coal.

In the run up to COP26, a number of such voluntary alliances are being created. Last week, the U.S. and European Union launched the Global Methane Pledge that aims to reduce emissions of the super-warming gas by 30% within a decade. Last month, Denmark and Costa Rica launched the Beyond Oil and Gas Alliance seeks to end the extraction of oil and gas by midcentury.

The patchwork of alliances targeting dirty sources of energy or specific greenhouse gases is a far cry from the systematic, orderly energy transition that the world needs. Rather, it’s an acceptance of the political reality of climate diplomacy that has to accommodate countries’ different stages of development.

Burning coal for electricity generation contributes to about a third of the world’s total carbon-dioxide emissions. With cleaner sources of power, such as solar and wind, becoming cheaper to build and operate, the case for ending coal keeps getting stronger. All emissions from coal power plants should end by 2040 if the world is to keep warming below 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to the International Energy Agency.

That’s a deadline Chile plans to meet. “We have an ambitious phase-out plan for all coal power plants,” said Juan Carlos Jobet Eluchans, the country’s minster of energy.

The No New Coal pact got a boost before its launch, with President Xi Jinping telling the UN general assembly this week that China will stop building coal power plants abroad. He didn’t provide details, but the announcement could mean an end to about 40 gigawatts of new coal power plants. That would avoid as much as 235 million tons of emissions, according to Global Energy Monitor. Xi’s pledge came after similar commitments from the only other remaining major financiers of overseas coal power plants — Japan and South Korea — earlier in the year.

“China’s decision is pretty much the end of public financing for coal,” said Chris Littlecott, associate director of fossil-fuel transition at E3G. “Private investors now face all of the risks of investing in coal on their own.”

The pipeline of new coal power plants has collapsed globally over the past decade. Since 2015, the world has canceled 1,175 GW of coal power plants—about the same size as China’s existing coal fleet, according to E3G—and thus avoided billions of tons of carbon dioxide that would have been dumped annually.

The No New Coal pact is a big step for some signatories. “Sri Lanka has been debating whether to build new coal plants for a few years,” said Christine Shearer of Global Energy Monitor, which tracks coal power plants globally. “If countries like Pakistan and Malaysia join, then we can really start to see the end of new coal plants.”

Still, there won’t be a significant reduction unless China, which is home to more than half of the world’s pipeline of new coal power plants, stops using the fuel. Xi didn’t address the domestic issue in his remarks to the UN.

China’s pledge to kick the coal habit comes at a critical moment for the planet


The devil will be in the details, but ending investments in overseas coal shows Beijing takes the climate crisis seriously

Sam Geall is CEO of China Dialogue and associate fellow at Chatham House
A power station in Hefei, Anhui province, China, in 2011. The country has pledged to stop building new coal-fired power projects abroad. 
Photograph: Jianan Yu/Reuters

Fri 24 Sep 2021

“China will step up support for other developing countries in developing green and low-carbon energy,” said China’s president, Xi Jinping, at the United Nations on Tuesday, “and will not build new coal-fired power projects abroad.”

It was a short, ambiguous and not entirely unexpected sentence, but it came at a critical moment. UN-led climate talks in November at Cop26 in Glasgow will represent the first opportunity since the signing of the 2015 UN Paris agreement for countries to ratchet up the commitments in their pledges, known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Countries need to increase their NDC ambitions by five times if the world is to reach the goal of not warming by more than 1.5C above pre-industrial levels. Xi’s announcement, which effectively amounts to the end of international public financing for coal power, seems to match the ambition necessary for this moment.

The pledge speaks to a major fault line in the pre-Cop26 debates. China’s belt and road initiative – the grand plan to enhance trade and connectivity across much of the developing world, creating foreign markets for Chinese industrial overcapacity – was heavily weighted towards high-carbon infrastructure. On the presidential campaign trail last year, Joe Biden made sure to point this out. “China … and their belt and road proposal,” he said, “they’re taking the dirtiest coal in the world mostly out of Mongolia and spreading it all around the world.”

So, what does Xi’s statement mean? The announcement fell on the first anniversary of China’s pledge to make the economy climate neutral by 2060, either by eliminating greenhouse gas emissions entirely or balancing them with carbon removal. He also announced it unilaterally, at the UN general assembly, and thus tied it irrevocably to his personal political legacy. But questions remain: how will this coal phase-out be implemented? What is the fate of coal power projects that are already planned or under construction? What is the scope of the word “build”? Does it include an end to international financing for coal, too? What about Chinese labour or engineering on a domestic project? Does it cover private companies, or only state-owned enterprises and banks?

In the absence of clear answers, we might look to the effect of the 2060 announcement, a year ago. In short: it was huge (Climate Action Tracker found that the pledge alone lowered global warming projections by 0.2–0.3C, the largest single projected change it has recorded), and it did matter. Policies and sectoral roadmaps have been fleshed out in the intervening year. Slogans (“1+N”; “30-60”), which are an important part of Chinese governance, were set. And China’s vice premier, Han Zheng – also in charge of a fearsome central inspection team, with authority to swoop in and censure bodies that step out of line – took the helm of a climate “leaders group” overseeing the net-zero goal.

Progress hasn’t been straightforward: China’s system isn’t smoothly technocratic, and there is a push and pull between core and periphery, incumbent and challenger industries. Things could be moving faster – particularly when it comes to phasing out China’s domestic coal fleet. China’s 14th Five Year Plan, for 2021-2025, will reduce the carbon and energy emitted per unit of economic output, and increase the share of renewables in its energy mix, but it does not commit the country to a carbon emissions or coal usage cap, as domestic environmentalists had hoped for. Its 2030 carbon “peak year” is relatively easy to achieve, and while China is known to “under-promise and over-deliver” on climate goals, the lack of ambition in domestic decarbonisation in the near term is a signal that the country is hedging things, in part due to an uncertain economic environment.

Yet this week’s announcement suggests, importantly, that China is willing to stay the course on climate diplomacy, despite rising geopolitical tensions, particularly with the US. The two economies together account for about 40% of global emissions and were, before the election of Donald Trump, a linchpin of climate cooperation. While foreign policy observers like to characterise China’s engagement on climate change as a “point of leverage” to force concessions in other arenas, Tuesday’s pledge shows that it is willing to move forward with decarbonisation unilaterally. In other words, high tensions with the US, which have continued with the Biden administration, do not appear to have weakened Beijing’s climate resolve.

China’s climate action ultimately reflect its self-interest. Political elites are aware of the country’s vulnerabilities with regards to global heating – its impacts on food and water security, and in chronic environmental stresses and natural disasters, as seen tragically this summer in Zhengzhou. Policymakers also recognise that climate action aligns with domestic economic priorities. China’s low-carbon industrial policy has positioned the country as the leading global supplier of clean technologies; the country has strengthened its energy security through electrification and decarbonisation; and it has used the shift away from polluting industries to move the economy “up the value chain” – towards innovation and services.

In the process, it has scored a soft-power win on the world stage, and at relatively low cost: the short-term pain may have industry insiders grumbling, but the economics of energy point towards renewables. China, at this point, is the last man standing on coal finance. Since 2013, China, Japan and South Korea provided 95% of that financing, with China the largest share, supplying $50bn, accounting for about 56GW of installed capacity. Japan and South Korea withdrew their support at the US-hosted Climate Leaders Summit in April.

So, perhaps it is low-hanging fruit, and China could start reaching higher up the tree. But we shouldn’t forget the other part of Xi’s sentence – his focus on supplying “green and low-carbon energy” for developing nations. This certainly won’t go unnoticed in the global south, where support from Europe and North America has been left wanting in recent years. The $100bn in climate finance promised for developing countries by rich nations at Paris has not materialised; access to vaccines continues, rightly, to be a point of tension; and countries are being implored to do more to address “loss and damage” – measures, such as compensation, required when vulnerable nations face devastating climate risks and adaptation is no longer possible.

There’s a lot of that fruit going unpicked. Another positive consequence of Xi’s announcement, therefore, would be if rich countries took it as a stimulus to start properly demonstrating their solidarity with the people in the world most badly affected by the climate crisis.


 

Chinese scientists report starch synthesis from carbon dioxide

Chinese scientists report starch synthesis from CO2
Starch synthesis via artificial starch anabolic pathway (ASAP) from carbon dioxide. Credit: TIBCAS

Chinese scientists recently reported a de novo route for artificial starch synthesis from carbon dioxide (CO2) for the first time. Relevant results were published in Science on Sept. 24.

The new route makes it possible to shift the mode of  production from traditional agricultural planting to , and opens up a new technical route for synthesizing complex molecules from CO2.

Starch is the major component of grain as well as an important industrial raw material. At present, it is mainly produced by crops such as maize by fixing CO2 through photosynthesis. This process involves about 60 biochemical reactions as well as complex physiological regulation. The theoretical energy conversion efficiency of this process is only about 2%.

Strategies for the sustainable supply of starch and use of CO2 are urgently needed to overcome major challenges of mankind, such as the food crisis and climate change. Designing novel routes other than plant photosynthesis for converting CO2 to starch is an important and innovative S&T mission and will be a significant disruptive technology in today's world.

To address this issue, scientists at the Tianjin Institute of Industrial Biotechnology (TIB) of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) designed a chemoenzymatic system as well as an artificial starch anabolic route consisting of only 11 core reactions to convert CO2 into starch.

This route was established by a "building block" strategy, in which the researchers integrated chemical and biological catalytic modules to utilize high-density energy and high-concentration COin a biotechnologically innovative way.

The researchers systematically optimized this hybrid system using spatial and temporal segregation by addressing issues such as substrate competition, product inhibition, and thermodynamical adaptation.

The artificial  can produce starch from CO2 with an efficiency 8.5-fold higher than starch biosynthesis in maize, suggesting a big step towards going beyond nature. It provides a new scientific basis for creating biological systems with unprecedented functions.

"According to the current technical parameters, the annual production of starch in a one-cubic-meter bioreactor theoretically equates with the starch annual yield from growing 1/3 hectare of maize without considering the energy input," said Cai Tao, lead author of the study.

This work would open a window for industrial manufacturing of starch from CO2.

"If the overall cost of the process can be reduced to a level economically comparable with agricultural planting in the future, it is expected to save more than 90% of cultivated land and freshwater resources," said MA Yanhe, corresponding author of the study.

In addition, it would also help to avoid the negative  of using pesticides and fertilizers, improve human food security, facilitate a carbon-neutral bioeconomy, and eventually promote the formation of a sustainable bio-based society.

TIB has focused on artificial starch biosynthesis and CO2 utilization since 2015. To carry out such demand-oriented S&T research, all kinds of resources for innovation have been gathered together and the integration of "discipline, task and platform" has been strengthened to achieve efficient coordination of research efforts.Illuminating the mechanism behind how plants regulate starch synthesis

More information: Cai Tao et al, Cell-free chemoenzymatic starch synthesis from carbon dioxide, Science (2021). DOI: 10.1126/science.abh4049

Journal information: Science 

Provided by Chinese Academy of Sciences 

WW3.0 JUMPING WITH BOTH FEET
Are the US and China tiptoeing toward an Indo-Pacific Cold War?

After Washington said it will share highly sensitive defense technology with Australia in the name of securing a "free and open" Indo-Pacific, all eyes are on the region and China's response.



Washington with AUKUS looks to have taken a step towards alliance building to balance China's military capability

The new security partnership between the United States, United Kingdom and Australia, dubbed "AUKUS," has made waves from Asia to Europe. Beijing called the partnership "highly irresponsible" and indicative of a Cold War-style "arms race."

Washington's European allies received AUKUS as a surprise and a snub. France was especially furious, as the agreement meant scrapping a multibillion-dollar, diesel-electric submarine deal with Australia in favor of US nuclear-powered vessels.

The AUKUS countries have hailed the pact as an "endeavor" to "sustain peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific region," an area conceived as stretching from India to Australia, and ostensibly the scene of a geopolitical showdown between the US and China.

As the Sino-American rivalry continues to take shape, Washington with AUKUS looks to have taken one of the biggest steps in recent history toward an alliance-building strategy to balance China's growing military capability.

Quad: From 'sea foam' to 'Pacific NATO'


President Xi Jinping's ambitious geopolitical plans for China are also behind the dusting off of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (QUAD), which is holding its first in-person leaders' summit since it was launched by former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe in 2017.

US President Joe Biden is hosting the leaders of India, Japan and Australia for talks in Washington on Friday, focused on what the White House has called the "priority of engaging in the Indo-Pacific."

After dismissing the Quad as mere "sea foam" in 2017, by October 2020 China compared the grouping to a "Pacific NATO" promoting a "cold war mentality to stir up confrontation."

Similar rhetoric was employed by Beijing once again, this time in response to the AUKUS announcement, although the idea of nuclear-powered submarines based in Australia is likely to cause more consternation in Beijing than lofty statements following a security dialogue.


US President Joe Biden is hosting the leaders of India, Japan and Australia for talks in Washington on Friday after the last Quad meeting was held virtually in March 2021

"I believe Beijing is more likely to be very concerned about AUKUS, especially given that this new setup also comprises a robust military technology element," said Collin Koh, a strategic analyst at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS) in Singapore.

"AUKUS is made up of close allies, and the chance of it becoming a basis for some sort of future 'Indo-Pacific NATO' is more plausible to imagine than the Quad is," he told DW.
Biden's friend down under

At the core of AUKUS is a pledge from the US to share its ultra-sensitive nuclear submarine propulsion technology, allowing Australia to acquire nuclear-powered submarines at the "earliest achievable date."

It is a major step. For only the second time, the US has shared nuclear technology with an ally, the first instance having been with the UK in 1958.


Biden and Morrison welcomed the deepening of ties after the AUKUS announcement


The AUKUS agreement comes amid months of deteriorating bilateral and trade relations between China and Australia.

Richard Maude, a senior fellow at Asia Society Policy Institute in Australia, told DW that the ever-closer strategic ties between Australia and the United States have deeper roots — a long-standing and close alliance and shared concern about China's growing power, nationalism and assertive foreign policy.

"Cooperating to help balance China's power serves the interests of both countries and has been intensifying for several years," he said, adding: "Policymakers in Canberra see the alliance as more relevant and more important than ever — a vital hedge against Chinese aggression."

Australia binding itself so tightly to a US-led security scheme has raised debate in Canberra over the diplomatic cost of ratcheting up deterrence against China.

"The US is by far still the only plausible counterweight against China given its sheer economic, military and diplomatic clout," said Koh. "Notwithstanding concerns about US unilateralism and strategic reliability, are there better alternatives for countries like Australia?" he added.

President Biden emphasized the depth of the new partnership ahead of a sit-down with Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison at the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, saying that the US had "no closer or more reliable ally than Australia."

China blasts 'Cold War' mentality


Although nowhere in the AUKUS or Quad communiques is countering China explicitly mentioned, Beijing is clearly the elephant in the room.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Zhao Lijian blasted the partnership as "severely damaging regional peace."

Lijian warned the group that it should "abandon the obsolete cold war zero-sum mentality and narrow-minded geopolitical concepts," or else risk "harming their own interests."

A pugnacious English-language op-ed published this week in the Communist Party-backed Global Times went even further, warning that "Australian troops are also most likely to be the first batch of Western soldiers to waste their lives in the South China Sea," in the event of conflict with the People's Liberation Army (PLA).
Putting the US-China rivalry on ice

However, dialogue forums like the Quad are a long way away from having a NATO-style mutual defense assurance. And the submarines promised to Australia under AUKUS will likely not be operational until sometime in the 2030s.

China has been churning out warships like this guided missile destroyer to rival the US Navy

Officially, neither side is openly showing signs of outright hostility. During the opening of the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, Biden said the US is "not seeking a new Cold War or a world divided into rigid blocs."

President Xi maintained that "China has never, and will never, invade or bully others or seek hegemony."

Charles Dunst, an associate at the US-based political risk consultancy Eurasia Group, told DW the US and its allies would work to avoid war with China, even while "pursuing efforts like AUKUS to counter Beijing's increasingly assertive behavior in the Indo-Pacific."

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned last week that the "completely dysfunctional" Sino-US relationship is risking a "Cold War" that would probably be "more dangerous and more difficult to manage" than the original.

The most dangerous potential flashpoint in the Indo-Pacific remains Taiwan, which Beijing considers a renegade Chinese province. The island's reunification with the mainland has become a core interest of the Communist Party in Beijing.

While Biden administration officials have reemphasized that the US will help Taiwan defend itself, in recent months, the PLA has been stepping up military maneuvers in the Taiwan Strait.

In July, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi accused the US of "trying to take risks on the Taiwan question," calling recent high-level meetings between officials "extremely wrong and dangerous."

"Achieving complete reunification of China is a historical trend and any person or force cannot stop it," said Wang.

"China could probably get away with aggressive action against some small Taiwanese islands, and probably too in the South China Sea, but any serious Chinese invasion of Taiwan would almost certainly bring about US involvement," said analyst Dunst.

"The 'red line' for US involvement in an Indo-Pacific war would be a Chinese military campaign against Taiwan," he added, although this would be a big line to cross.

"China, too, still prefers lower-level action to full-on war, although this could change as China's capabilities improve and Xi Jinping becomes more impatient," he said.

Economics before submarines


However, for the time being, China's primary strategy in the Indo-Pacific remains leveraging economic pressure to bring countries into its orbit, rather than directly rivaling US-led security guarantees promising a free and open region.

"China offers aid and investment to countries throughout the region, particularly in Southeast Asia, that the US does not," said Dunst.

"Without a US economic plan for the Indo-Pacific, China's efforts on this front will continue to find success," he added.

"Most Indo-Pacific countries prefer to balance the US and China — cooperating with and extracting economic benefits from both — but some have aligned with the United States for fear of Chinese aggression. Australia and India are prime examples," he continued.

Maude said China's leaders are confident that the tide of history is running in their direction.

"Especially in the lead up to the all-important Party Congress next year, China has few incentives to cooperate with the United States or compromise on issues of concern to Washington," he pointed out.

"The challenge for Washington is to convince China that its aggressive turn of recent years will be met with sustained resistance and that the costs for China of its current course will be high. Partnerships like AUKUS and the Quad are central to those endeavors."
Corbyn: ‘Crazy beyond belief’ for UK to enter defence pact with US and Australia

The former Labour leader said he wanted to live in a peaceful world.


Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn joins a demonstration in Parliament Square by the Stop the War campaign group (Kirsty O’Connor/PA)

By Geraldine Scott, 
PA Political Correspondent
September 25 2021 

Jeremy Corbyn has said Britain should stay out of a defence pact that he fears could see the country drawn into a new cold war with China.

Earlier this month, Boris Johnson announced that the UK would join a new pact with the United States and Australia – dubbed Aukus – where the three allies agreed to co-operate on the development for the first time of a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines for the Australian navy.

The move, widely interpreted as an attempt to check China’s growing military assertiveness in the Indo-Pacific, was swiftly condemned by Beijing as a “geopolitical gaming tool”.

The Prime Minister insisted it was not intended as an “adversarial” move against China but was questioned in the Commons what the implications were if China should attempt to invade Taiwan.

He said the UK “remains determined to defend international law”.

The idea we're going to sort of bomb our way into these things is simply not very sensibleJeremy Corbyn

Speaking at an event at The World Transformed conference, which is running alongside the Labour Party conference in Brighton, Mr Corbyn said the idea of the pact was “crazy beyond belief” and could only lead to rearmament.

The former leader said: “When Biden said that he wasn’t very keen on nation-building any more around the world, a succession of Tory MPs and not a few Labour MPs as well got up and said, ‘well, if Biden won’t play the global role, we will… we’ve already got an aircraft carrier in the South China Sea, and if Taiwan is under threat from China, we’re gonna get stuck in’.

“Hang on a minute, they’re actually saying that this country – 65 million people, north-west coast of Europe, tiny proportion of the world’s population – should have a global arms presence and involve ourselves in an alliance that can only lead to rearmament of the West and of China, and of Russia at the same time.

“This is crazy beyond belief, surely Covid has taught us something that real inequality is health inequality, is poverty, and the refugees are the ultimate victims of that.

“I want to live in a peaceful world.

Former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn (Aaron Chown/PA)

“And if we’ve got differences with people, as we have on human rights, then challenge, then take it up, then support those in those societies that are demanding their rights, work with them.

“But the idea we’re going to sort of bomb our way into these things is simply not very sensible.

“Let’s learn the lessons of Afghanistan and Iraq, of Libya, of Syria, and talk to the 70 million people who are refugees around the world, many of whom are victims of war. We can do things differently.”
Hoping for miracles

Abbas Nasir
Published September 26, 2021 - 


The writer is a former editor of Dawn.


WHILE the ramifications of the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan are far from clear at this point, what can be said with certainty is that Pakistan appears ill-equipped to deal with the challenges that regional developments can potentially throw up.

Claiming vindication of the military strategists’ long-held view and policy on Afghanistan is one thing; buckling down to what changes that ‘win’ can bring and the need for fleet-footed policy responses is altogether another.

The US rightly got slammed for the manner in which it announced its departure from Afghanistan and executed the pullout. The Taliban saw it as a huge win with some justification as they had faced the US military might for two decades.

The Taliban fought the hi-tech juggernaut with small arms, improvised explosive devices and suicide bombers. Even if they found a few sanctuaries, succour and counsel in the erstwhile tribal areas of neighbouring Pakistan, during those 20 years, the win was theirs and theirs alone.

Pakistan will be exposed to international recrimination if the Taliban revert to their old ways.


Since they see the win as theirs alone, they don’t seem to be in the mood to listen to anyone including Pakistan, long seen by the international community as a benefactor and protector of the Afghan militant group with extraordinary influence over it.

The reality was evident when a senior Taliban leader in an address whose clips were shared on social media responded harshly to Prime Minister Imran Khan’s call for an inclusive government in Kabul. He used rather strong language and called into question the latter’s democratic credentials.

Of course, this is not to say Pakistan has zero leverage over the Taliban but merely to underline the complexity of the Afghan situation with different elements of the militant group such as the military and political pulling in different directions.

The success of the Taliban’s military and terror campaign, experts said, was also due to decentralised command structure. From recruitment, training to planning, targeting and executing attacks a lot was left to the local commanders.

Now that the task is to run the country and present a unified whole, that autonomy is proving difficult to curtail as is evident in old-style Taliban system of summary ‘justice’ ie brutal punishments and confining women, even schoolgirls, to quarters in so many areas of the country.

Understandably, this may be the view of the apologists who also maintain that the reborn Taliban leadership is not anything like what the world witnessed when they took power in 1996. Pakistan is among those nations that are pumping out this message daily.

Pakistan may be advocating global engagement with the ‘changed’ Taliban and arguing for Western funds to flow to Afghanistan to ward off hunger that large swaths of the population will soon be facing so that a flood of refugees doesn’t come knocking at its door soon.

But in the process it is also giving an undertaking of sorts that the Taliban will behave in a certain manner over the coming months and in the future. Ergo, leaving itself exposed to international recriminations if Kabul’s new rulers revert to their old ways.

In these columns over the past weeks, we have already discussed the new US priority: encirclement of China. Whether the Taliban defeated the US or the latter decided to refocus its energies and priorities on its new enemy is difficult to tell.

What is not is that from AUKUS to the Quad contacts and initiatives, the Biden administration now seems to have its sight set on one goal. As it tries to restrict China’s growing footprint in the Asia Pacific region and beyond, the US sees India as one of its main partners.

Pakistan’s astute military planners, I am sure, are already gaming multiple scenarios and the policy responses to those. However, one major piece is missing from the jigsaw. The importance of that piece can’t be mentioned enough.

It is the need for a consensus within the country on both the challenges and the response to those. National security and large chunks of foreign policy decisions are being made by the military, more than in the past, in the incumbent set-up which some of its key supporters call hybrid.

Neither parliament nor key opposition leaders have been consulted in any meaningful way in the past so many weeks. The odd briefing to a handful of parliamentary committee members at GHQ is not the same as seeking input from elected members representing the popular will.

However, that is proving difficult as with two years to go before elections, the governing party is not willing to lift its foot off the confrontation pedal as it believes that castigating and hounding the opposition for even uncommitted sins is a winning formula.

And if doing that vitiates the environment and divides society, it is a small price to pay. While the PTI government is easier to blame because of its leaders’ inflammatory statements and its visible persecution of opposition leaders, its backers are not.

This, despite the fact that in a hybrid set-up responsibility has to be shared by all partners for all actions. Talking of responsibility, the opposition is not blameless either. It is terribly fragmented and now seems to be fighting for crumbs off the ‘head table’ and is content with what it can pick up.

The main opposition PML-N and its top leaders have played the ‘good cop, bad cop’ game so many times that it has lost its utility. If I were a supporter of the party I’d be totally confused regarding its direc­­tion and whether to offer a fight or flight response.

The PML-N has chosen to appease a few it deems powerful at great cost. The most obvious being treated no better than a doormat more or less like the PPP also chose to do so. With new regional realities and the country’s economy tanking, one is left at the mercy of unaccountable institutions, decision-makers and hoping for miracles.

The writer is a former editor of Dawn.
abbas.nasir@hotmail.com
Published in Dawn, September 26th, 2021
Abusing trans people

Zofeen T. Ebrahim
Published September 26, 2021 -
The writer is a Karachi-based independent journalist.


“WHAT happened at Minar-i-Pakistan on Aug 14 to the cis woman [non-trans woman] is what happens to us routinely, and in a much more violent manner, but remains hidden from society’s view,” said Sophia-Layla Afsar, a trans woman, who worked as a corporate lawyer for 10 years till it became suffocating to continue in the transphobic office culture.

The abuse, almost always by men who are their intimate partners, can range from searing with cigarette butts, slapping, chopping off hair, rape, gang rape and ultimately murder. According to the Karachi-based Gender Interactive Alliance (GIA), an organisation working for trans people, since the beginning of the year, 10 trans women have been murdered across Pakistan.

Fighting societal transphobia and unable to fall back on their family because the latter were the first to reject them, they have no one to turn to but the trans community.

In Karachi, the violence is often committed by beelas. They are part of a larger syndicate of men operating in the city and have grown in numbers and gained notoriety.

Trans women have found the courage to lodge complaints.


They organise underground dance parties where trans women perform. This is sometimes followed by sex. With educational institutions reluctant to enrol trans women and offices unwilling to hire them, a majority in the community make a livelihood in this manner.

The beelas, for their part, consider the trans women their playthings to do what they please with them, even offering them to their friends. They brook no dissent and if a trans woman resists, she is penalised.

The beelas are able to operate with impunity because they have powerful connections in the police as well as with local politicians. If by chance one is arrested, the trans woman is harassed and threatened by the entire gang with dire consequences, forcing her to recant.

For many the worst form of punishment is getting their hair chopped off, a seemingly less violent abuse, but for them, it is a death sentence. With their honour and their livelihood closely linked to their locks, the abuse leaves them totally devastated.

Today, the trans women have found the courage to lodge complaints and in the last two years, GIA was able to file for over three dozen cases of extreme violence.

However, the transphobic treatment at the police station makes it difficult for the trans community to seek redressal or report these crimes, they say.

Further, the current Penal Code provision on rape only recognises cis women as victims. Unfortunately, the only trans frie­ndly law — the Criminal Law (Amendment) Ordinance, 2020 — which made the definition of rape gender neutral and victims and perpetrators inclusive of all genders, has lapsed.

Another dilemma faced by most trans women is that since they continue using the male name and gender on the national ID card, when they report a rape, it is registered as sodomy. But even where their gender is identified as a khawaja sira (X), in the absence of female genitalia (and because they are labelled as commercial sex workers), the complainant risks being booked for unnatural sex.

The cumbersome reporting process often results in the complainant returning home disheartened and without filing a complaint. Where complaints are filed, these often end in ‘reconciliation’ as the complainant is unable to bear with appearing in front of the investigating officer and suffering thoughtless interrogation.

Although the Transgender Persons (Protection of Rights) Act, 2018, was a historic step giving trans people a legal cover, perhaps the only positive outcome has been recognition of their identify on the nat­ional identity card. However, being a federal law, it is limited in assuring jobs, education or even protection to trans people beyond Islamabad Capital Territory.

The law drafted by the trans community in Sindh in 2016, based on the crimes they experience routinely, is gathering dust because no political party has found the time in the last five years to study the document, get it vetted and table it in the provincial assembly.

If the Minar-i-Pakistan incident and Noor Mukaddam’s brutal murder filled us with horror, why are we not repulsed by the violence meted out to trans persons? The state needs to show its seriousness in protecting this community. The type of violence experienced by them is specific, they say, and requires specific laws.

But treating other humans with respect should not be forced upon us because of fear of the law alone. It is time for some introspection of why we have become apathetic. We need to be kinder towards the vulnerable and the marginalised. It is time to turn the tables on the beelas and ‘intimate partners’ by castigating them instead of offering protection.

The writer is a Karachi-based independent journalist.

zofeen28@hotmail.com

Twitter: @Zofeen28

Published in Dawn, September 26th, 2021
Burqa isn’t choice
Published September 26, 2021 - 

The writer is a lawyer based in London.


SEVERAL years ago, when I started working as a lawyer in Karachi, as I was walking to my office inside a large building, which housed several offices, a man from an adjacent office, who looked like he could be my father’s age, stopped me and said, “Beta, dupatta kidhar hai?”

“It’s none of your business whether I wear a dupatta or not,” I retorted, and he backed down apologising. However, the incident stuck with me. The idea that a complete stranger could tell me what to wear wasn’t alien to me. I had grown up in Saudi Arabia, where an entire brigade of men called the mutawa, were tasked with going around town to check how many strands of hair were showing from women’s hijabs and admonish them and their next-of-kin males accordingly.

However, when I am told that women choose to wear a hijab, niqab or burqa, I find the notion completely fanciful. Some may certainly be choosing it, but a large number are not. Particularly those who live in Muslim-majority countries, where free choice has never been part of our ethos.

In Pakistan, for instance, isn’t it quite common for parents to decide who their children should marry or which profession they should pursue?

Free choice has never been part of our ethos
.

One hundred per cent free choice doesn’t exist anywhere in the world, as there are always some norms and bounds that society dictates. For instance, nudity isn’t considered acceptable in public places and a University of California, Berkeley, student who attempted it back in 1992 was promptly arrested. Nevertheless, the amount of leeway one is given in choosing one’s life path, activities, and indeed dress is far more restrictive in our societies than it is in Western ones.

A cousin who moved from the US to UAE once told me that she had more freedom organising and attending Islamic religious lectures (dars) in the US than she did in the UAE, where the subject was strictly regulated by the state.

One only has to compare university campuses in Western countries with those in Pakistan to find how much freedom young adults have in terms of how freely they can come and go from campus or organise for a political cause. Many girls will tell you their dads do not allow them to wear sleeveless shirts or dance at functions where both men and women are present, while boys may be told that they need to marry off their sisters before they can think of marrying themselves.

So free choice plays very little role in our culture and society. This then brings us to the question — why do women wear the hijab, niqab or burqa? Primarily, it is because they are told that this is what their religion requires of them. But also, some young girls have told me that wearing a hijab leads to less familial constraint on their comings and goings, as male family members feel they have become religious and hence doubt them less. Others feel the extra clothing may fend off unwanted stares and advances.

One girl I recently spoke to told me that she wore a burqa when she went to study in China, thinking that it will make her safer as this is what she had been conditioned to believe in Pakistan. However, after a while she realised that the burqa was attracting undue attention in China and yet not serving the purpose it was supposed to. She said she soon realised that women in China were generally safe without wearing the burqa so she too took it off.

So the crux of the matter is making women feel safe in a public space. The questions to ask are: in societies where a large number of women are veiling, are women safe to walk on the streets alone? Are they safe at bus stops or driving cars alone or are they participating fully in public life? Or are they holding back, still fearful of unwanted advances from men, and yet not realising their potential?

I must add here that the hijab, a head covering alone, does not constrain women from doing most things that women without a hijab can do, but a niqab and burqa certainly do. They make public interface much more difficult. How many of us would be comfortable with a doctor or a nurse or a lawyer who veils her face? The idea of the face veil is to relegate women to a position where they have minimal public space.

This is not only detrimental for women but society at large. Emphasis on veiling often leads to calls for segregation of the sexes, which simply isn’t feasible in most real-life work situations. Saudi Arabia has learned this as it tries to diversify its economy and has reversed stricter veiling policies it promoted earlier.

As the Taliban take hold of Afghanistan and impose harsh conditions on women, it is more important than ever for other Muslim countries to speak out against such regressive interpretations of our religion, which are incompatible with modernity.

The writer is a lawyer based in London.
Twitter: @ayeshaijazkhan
Published in Dawn, September 26th, 2021
Deadly misinformation


DAWN.COM
Editorial
Published September 26, 2021 


THE distinction between ‘fake’ and ‘authentic’ news is now a concept impossible to escape. In an unprecedentedly hooked-up world, everyone knows the news of the day. But what to trust and what not to trust — there’s the rub. Even as the internet generation comes fully into its own, the world has watched while unverified ‘news’ has caused unforgiveable mischief ranging from rumour-mongering (the surmised plots behind the 9/11 attacks come to mind), to the spread of hateful ideologies (such as notions of white supremacy that proliferate in online echo chambers), to planet-endangering misinformation (including conspiracy theories about the Covid-19 vaccines that continue to confuse, or climate change), and everything in between. This is precisely why it is of seminal importance for news consumers to be intelligent and aware; to be fully cognisant of the fact that when the world lies at our fingertips, it also takes the touch of just one fingertip to upload for a potentially worldwide audience anything that may take one’s fancy — good or bad or ludicrous. In a praiseworthy effort to address exactly this, last year the All Pakistan Newspaper Society declared Sept 25 as National Newspaper Readership Day, reminding news consumers in Pakistan that the charms and ease of social media notwithstanding, it is newspapers that can be fully relied on for exactitude because of the extensive process of fact-checking, cross-checking and unquestionable verification that goes into the process of production. Newspapers are the Fourth Estate that not only demand accountability and truth from power, but also have over the centuries developed into a model that offers itself up for accountability through the fact of being a permanent record — as opposed to the ephemeral nature of online content, be it on ‘news’ sites, or social media sites whose messages can potentially spread nationally or globally like wildfire.

That said, the newspaper model must also look within and adjust in the face of contemporary realities. The World Association of Newspaper and News Publishers recognises as a ‘definite’ newspaper — as opposed to newsletters — The Relation of Strasbourg, dating back to 1609. What is published for the permanent record after extensive verification can unavoidably not compete with the immediacy of the internet — but its value is contained in precisely this verification process. The centuries-old model of immediate news may have become outdated, but newspapers can provide unmatchable context and meaning. Trustworthiness and verification will always trump immediacy.

Published in Dawn, September 26th, 2021
Climate of change

Ali Tauqeer Sheikh
Published September 26, 2021 - 
The writer is an expert on climate change and development.


WORLD leaders gathered in New York this week for the UN General Assembly meeting coinciding with the 20th Climate Week. These two major events come at a critical moment for climate action as a last-ditch effort to create momentum prior to the global climate summit in Glasgow in six weeks.

The General Assembly and Climate Week cater for two distinct constituencies. They compete and inform each other. Inside the UN halls, the delegates negotiate deals, create consensus and set the direction of their journeys, all this while reiterating their known or predictable positions. On the streets, diverse stakeholders, activists and interest groups raise alternative ideas and propositions. They come together to shape and influence the formal negotiations for speedy climate actions.

This process has grown in importance and outreach since it started in 2009. It has become a marketplace for ideas. This year alone there are over 535 planned events involving scientists, think tanks, CEOs, mayors, parliamentarians, governors, students and delegates from several countries. While for the delegates, planetary or climate considerations are subservient to national interests, the marchers bring disruptive propositions to the table for transformational change. They have been successful in changing the discourse as well as defining the role of civil society and the private sector vis-à-vis the Paris Agreement that has set global climate targets. Hundreds of entities — communities, corporations, universities, city governments and states — have set voluntary targets for their carbon neutrality or transition to net zero emissions.

In the UN halls, however, the dominant economies and the Global South are deeply divided, perhaps irreconcilably. The Western economies have so far focused mostly on mitigation and reducing carbon emissions and it is only now that climate-induced extreme weather events have begun to visit them and give them wake-up calls. Their ideas are persuasive, particularly since they hold the key to financial and technology flows, and host scientific and research institutions.

The world faces a climate emergency as the toll on people’s lives and livelihoods keeps growing.

The Global South, struggling with governance and economic issues is, on the other hand, at the forefront of climate vulnerability, frequently battered by the compound impact of the drivers of climate change. They are seeking international climate finance for adaptation measures as well as resources on account of loss and damage, or irreversible economic and non-economic losses.

The North-South climate divide however is deeper and more complex. The North often sees climate change more as an opportunity than a threat. It is recognised as the ultimate market failure. The Western economies have an element of faith that solutions have to be market-driven and instigated by incentivising technological changes rather than revisiting their consumption or production systems. This has led to increased investments in technologies for renewable energy, mobility, urban transportation, fuel, infrastructure and building material and standards.

These investments are reflected in accelerated economic growth rates and delinking of development from energy intensity or emissions reductions, waste generation, and the use of natural capital. Entire societies are in the process of reinventing themselves and redesigning community spaces, modes of transportation and ways of doing businesses. This has accelerated economic growth and boosted trade with new products and services. While the Global South seeks international finance and technology transfer, economic and trade relations have undergone profound changes. The urge­ncy for collective action on a planetary scale is being missed by both the North and the Global South.

The world faces an emergency as the toll on people’s lives and livelihoods keeps growing. According to a recent report by the World Meteorological Organisation, the past decade was the hottest on record. Yet, carbon emissions from fossil fuels and forest fires are 62 per cent higher than in 1990 and reached an all-time high in 2019, threatening all gains on climate change. Wildfires alone during the last one year in the US, Canada, Russia and the Arctic, for example, emitted more CO2 than India’s total annual emissions — and India is the world’s third largest emitter after China and the US. UN Secretary General António Guterres rightly labelled these trends as “code red for humanity”.

Some critical areas are worth watching for signs of progress leading up to the climate summit in Glasgow:

National Climate Plans: Nationally Determined Contributions, or NDCs, are a barometer of countries’ commitment to climate action. Carbon emissions from the world’s 20 biggest economies are still rising. None of the G20 countries have presented plans that will put them on track to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Some estimates suggest that the frontloading of emissions reduction by them can help limit global temperature rise to 1.7°C.

Climate Finance Deficit: Addressing the climate finance gap is vital for COP26’s success and for climate, particularly adaptation actions. The rich countries need to meet their overdue commitment made in Paris of $100 billion a year for developing nations. This amount is only a fraction of what the Global South actually needs to decarbonise and build resilience to climate impacts. Developed countries need to also commit an additional $500 billion for the 2020-2024 period, and to establish a more ambitious and transparent target to be agreed on prior to 2025.

Coal Moratoriums: China, South Korea and Japan have announced stopping international finance for coal. The G7 summit has already agreed to stop international finance for coal by the end of 2021 and to phase out fossil fuel subsidies by 2025. Altogether 44 countries have committed to no new coal, including Pakistan, but a complete exit and switch to renewables will require international financing.

Fossil Fuel Subsidies: Governments extend more than $500bn on subsidies for production and consumption to fossil fuels that contribute to climate high emissions, making renewables less competitive. For the decarbonisation goals of the Paris Agreement, subsidies need to be phased out, starting with G20, on a faster pace for the transition away from fossil fuels.

As the climate discourse in New York captures our imagination, there is an increasing pressure to act. Progress in four key areas is essential to reach an ambitious and just outcome at the COP26 climate summit: enhanced ambition, scaled-up climate fin­a­nce, enhanced tracking and support for adaptation, and support for loss and damage. This is a defining moment in history. It must not be wasted.

The writer is an expert on climate change and development.

Published in Dawn, September 26th, 2021
WHY THE HAZARAS ARE LEAVING AFGHANISTAN

Farid Kasi
Published September 26, 2021 - 

A file photo from a protest by Afghan Hazaras in Kabul. 
The community has historically faced persecution in the country 
| Reuters

On a September afternoon, an imambargah on the outskirts of Quetta is quieter than it has been over the past few weeks. The mostly Hazara Afghan refugees who had been living here have been asked to move out because of the fear of a raid.

Some of the refugees who had been staying at the imambargah have temporarily moved to a rented house. Upon entering the house, one is reminded of communal hostel living during college days. One kitchen, five rooms and many residents.

Zahida*, an Afghan woman barely in her thirties, is sitting in the room occupied by her and her family. They clearly have not travelled with many possessions. The most prominent thing is a packet of medicines.

Zahida’s shawl partially hides her amputated leg; her swollen eyes hide many stories. She shares some of them and her long journey with Eos.

On August 15, the world watched in disbelief as the Afghan Taliban seized control of Afghanistan. When President Ashraf Ghani flew out of his country it sent shockwaves around the globe. ‘What now?’ a great many confused commentators wondered in the media. But while those on the outside were coming to terms with how swiftly the Afghan government had fallen, many in Afghanistan had to quickly think of what to do next.

The return of Taliban rule in Afghanistan has also meant the return of fear for Afghan Hazaras, who faced brutal persecution at the hands of the Taliban during their last stint in power. Thousands of them have made their way across the border to Pakistan, a country with its own history of persecution of the Hazaras. One Afghan Hazara woman shares why she decided to make the move

For Zahida, a Hazara woman, the question of ‘What now?’ became relevant in early August, when the Taliban started capturing different cities.

Zahida was a schoolteacher in Herat and her husband owned a medical store there. As the Taliban seemed to move in closer and closer to them, the couple decided to leave for Kabul, which was generally believed to be more secure. Surely, the Taliban forces couldn’t defeat the mighty Afghan army, they thought.

With the Taliban taking control of cities around them, the Hazara couple’s worst fears were coming true. The Hazaras, who now make up an estimated nine percent of Afghanistan’s population, have historically faced prejudice, mistreatment and violence in Afghanistan. But things relatively improved for them after the collapse of the Taliban rule in 2001.

Afghans such as Zahida fear that the Taliban’s return means a return of violence and persecution for the country’s mostly Shia Hazara population.

As the Taliban approached Herat, Zahida and her husband knew it was time for them to leave. Her pay had been pending for the last three months, but the couple decided to leave it behind. They started selling all their belongings at throwaway prices. And, at last, on August 10, they left for Kabul with their children.

Two days later, Herat fell into the hands of the Taliban. They had escaped right in time, they thought. But their troubles were far from over.

In a matter of days, the Taliban would take control of Zahida’s country. And, in a matter of weeks, her family would be one of the thousands of Hazara families seeking refuge across the border in Pakistan.

THE FALL OF KABUL
Evacuees crowd the interior of a US tranport aircraft en route to Qatar | Reuters



When Zahida’s family reached Kabul, they found the city packed with people from all over Afghanistan. Everyone was rushing towards the capital for security against the Taliban. Many of them were Hazara Shias. The Hazaras were aware of the sectarian discrimination by the Taliban in the past and could simply not afford to trust them.

The family started temporarily staying at a friend’s house while searching for a place for themselves. But their search was cut short when, on August 15, the Taliban took control of Kabul.

Fear and confusion could be felt in the air. Kabul had become a textbook example of mayhem and chaos. Everyone started going towards the airport as they were told that US flights were airlifting people to America. The airport became another madhouse; people were climbing on each other, people hanging from planes. “My husband and I decided to wait for a few days because of my health — I am diabetic and cannot afford any fatigue and tension,” says Zahida.

On August 24, Zahida’s family went to the airport. Some of their relatives had gotten on a plane to the US, so they also decided to try their luck. It was tough to get in, with scores of people waiting to escape. “I sat in the shadow of a wall, covered from the top with barbed wire,” she recalls. “With each passing day, we were getting closer to the gate,” she adds.


With the Taliban taking control of cities around them, the Hazara couple’s worst fears were coming true. The Hazaras, who now make up an estimated nine percent of Afghanistan’s population, have historically faced prejudice, mistreatment and violence in Afghanistan.

On August 26, Zahida and her family were almost at the entrance gate when a massive explosion rocked the airport.

AFTER THE BLAST

Zahida and her family started running towards secure ground. After the blast, firing began. “We were running. I was breathless and ran for not more than 10 minutes when I started feeling pain in my left leg,” she says. “I asked my husband to sit somewhere.”

When she sat on a low wall to recover some energy, she noticed that her trousers were drenched in blood. She asked her husband to see what had happened. “Let me bring a wheelbarrow to carry you to the hospital,” he responded. “Something has hit you.”

It took Zahida’s husband some time to find a wheelbarrow. By the time he returned, the pain was unbearable. Her leg was numb and she couldn’t feel it. “I was almost unconscious when he rushed me to the hospital,” she says.

Even in her condition, Zahida couldn’t help but notice that the hospital was full of people who had been injured in the blast. She was quickly taken to the operation theatre and a bullet was taken out of her leg.

When she woke up, it was close to early morning. The doctor advised Zahida to leave the hospital as they needed the room for treating patients with more severe injuries.

That is when Zahida’s family decided to leave for Quetta, Pakistan.

ROAD TO PAKISTAN AND BEYOND

Zahida’s husband hired a taxi from Kabul that charged them almost 175 dollars (over 29,000 Pakistani rupees) for the nearly 590-kilometre-long journey till Spin Boldak, which neighbours Chaman in Pakistan. It was a long journey, made longer by several checkpoints and dilapidated roads along the way.

“I was continuously taking painkillers, but the excruciating pain wouldn’t go away,” Zahida recalls. “I felt a deep ache in my leg but couldn’t check it because of the burqa I was wearing,” she says.

On the way to Spin Boldak, the family stopped to have lunch at a local hotel. Zahida went to check her leg and saw that it was turning black and blue. She didn’t know what to make of it, and neither did her husband. Besides, while on the road, they had no choice but to ignore it anyway.

The family reached the border 18 hours after they first started in Kabul. A middleman helped them cross the border, charging an additional fee for his services.

Zahida and her family finally reached Quetta early in the morning and went straight to an imambargah. Here they were given breakfast and Zahida fell asleep for a while. Her husband went out to fetch some supplies.

Zahida woke up with a fever and an excruciating pain in her leg. Her husband was sitting next to her. She told him she was not feeling well and needed to go to the doctor. He told her they couldn’t go because they were illegal refugees. She implored him to take her as she felt like she was dying.

Moved by her pleas, the imambargah’s caretaker called a community doctor who examined her and told her to go to a hospital. He said her leg had gangrened. “I didn’t understand him, but it seemed like things were not good,” she recalls. “He said he would sneak us into the Civil Hospital at night.”

They reached the hospital at midnight, where an on-duty doctor examined her. He was of the view that her leg would need to be amputated. “I wanted to die at that moment, but I had to live for my children,” Zahida tells Eos.

Her family was told that the operation would cost 50,000 rupees. They barely had 20,000.

The family asked for money from everyone at the imambargah, which had started to fill up with more Afghan Hazara refugees.

“I never knew I would have to beg for money to cut my leg,” Zahida says. “The next day I was taken to the hospital on two legs and came back with one”

THE SAFER OPTION


The plight of Hazaras in Pakistan is well-documented. But migrants such as Zahida believe that being here is a safer option than being in Afghanistan right now. Besides, most are only here temporarily and plan to travel further to Iran or Europe.

In a September 21 press conference, the Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid said that they would consider putting women and members of the Hazara community in government positions. But most Hazaras, in Pakistan and back in Afghanistan, remain sceptical of these claims.

If there were any ambiguity about what the return of Taliban rule could mean for the Hazaras, it was removed by an August 19 report by Amnesty International, which found that Taliban fighters had massacred nine Hazara men after taking control of Afghanistan’s Ghazni province in July.

“On-the-ground researchers spoke to eyewitnesses who gave harrowing accounts of the killings, which took place between 4-6 July in the village of Mundarakht, Malistan district,” the report says. According to the report, the brutal killings likely represent a small fraction of the total death toll, as the Taliban had cut mobile service in many areas that they had captured, controlling the photographs and videos shared from the regions.

But as the group seized control of the entire country, the violent imagery of what had happened was etched in the memories of those who had witnessed the atrocities. Zahida is just one of them, her amputated leg being a constant reminder of the hysteria and fear that came to Afghanistan with the Taliban rule.

Thousands of other stories remain unheard.

Name changed to protect identity

The writer is a Chevening Scholar and received his Masters in Development Studies from the Institute of Development Studies, University of Sussex. He tweets @f_kasi

Published in Dawn, EOS, September 26th, 2021