Sunday, October 24, 2021

 

Hidden costs of global illegal wildlife trade

Peer-Reviewed Publication

UNIVERSITY OF ADELAIDE

Sulcata Tortoise 

IMAGE: A VENDOR DISPLAY FEATURING A SULCATA TORTOISE AT A REPTILE TRADE CONVENTION IN FLORIDA, USA. view more 

CREDIT: SUPPLIED BY ADAM TOOMES, THE UNIVERSITY OF ADELAIDE.

An international team of experts, including researchers from the University of Adelaide, has highlighted that the illegal and unsustainable global wildlife trade has bigger ramifications on our everyday lives than you might think.

In a paper published in Biological Conservation, the team of researchers investigated the many ways in which the trade negatively impacts species, ecosystems, and society – including people’s health, crime and our economies.

Co-author, Dr Oliver Stringham from the University of Adelaide said: “The Illegal or unsustainable wildlife trade is growing at a global level and the impacts are far-reaching.

“The trade in wild vertebrates alone is estimated to involve a quarter of terrestrial (land) species, while the trade in ocean life, invertebrates, plants, and fungi remains considerably overlooked and poorly documented.

“As a threat to targeted species, the trade represents one of the five major drivers of biodiversity loss and extinction at global scale.

“But these effects are just the tip of the iceberg.”

In their paper the researchers also describe the incidental effects of wildlife harvesting on other species. These include disrupted interactions between species and ecosystem structure, altering species composition, functioning, and services – such as seed dispersal, pollination and carbon storage. Many species also provide habitat for others and their loss results in habitat depletion.

The trade can further result in deliberate or accidental introduction of predators and pests in previously predator-free areas. This has an estimated cost of US$162.7 billion a year, and can cause havoc on the native systems through the spread of disease, and in extreme cases cause the extinction of native species.

The paper also discusses impacts for human health.

Dr Stringham said: “Two-thirds of emerging infectious disease outbreaks affecting humans, many leading to pandemics, have zoonotic origins, and of these, the majority originate in wildlife.”

There are also costs to eco-tourism. Deforestation of pristine areas can reduce space for recreation, and the global estimated net loss in ecosystem services, mainly due to logging and consequent habitat loss is estimated at US$20.2 trillion.

According to co-author of the paper PhD candidate Adam Toomes from the University of Adelaide, the legal yet unregulated trade can be just as detrimental as its illegal counterpart.

“A large diversity of species are not protected by international regulation and are traded without any formal documentation process, making it incredibly difficult to evaluate the associated costs and benefits,” he said.

“The trade is also highly dynamic, meaning that, in extreme cases, demand for a previously low-risk species can increase rapidly, outpacing relevant legislation.”

In a follow-up paper, the researchers outline a number of approaches and tools available to curb the trade. These include bans, quotas, protected areas, certification, captive-breeding and propagation, education and awareness.

Mr Toomes said, while it is clear urgent action is needed to close key knowledge gaps and regulate wildlife trade more stringently, policy and enforcement also needs to consider the livelihoods and communities depending on trade, to ensure a balance between these often-opposing views.

“Trade regulations that do not take this into consideration could increase vulnerability and poverty in certain areas that depend on it for food and income,” he said.

“With large differences in legislation, cultural drivers of trade and availability of species, there is no one-size fits all strategy. Each unique context warrants a variety of disciplines and actors dedicated to ensuring trade occurs sustainably.”

CAPTION

A vendor display featuring several different breeding morphs of ball pythons at a reptile trade convention in Florida, USA.

CREDIT

Supplied by Adam Toomes, the University of Adelaide

 

The mess from global climate change: Overcoming the stumbling blocks for effective action


Time is up! We need to move into the action!

Book Announcement

WORLD SCIENTIFIC

Buying Time for Climate Action: Exploring Ways around Stumbling Blocks 

IMAGE: COVER FOR "BUYING TIME FOR CLIMATE ACTION: EXPLORING WAYS AROUND STUMBLING BLOCKS" view more 

CREDIT: WORLD SCIENTIFIC

The 2021 IPCC report made one thing crystal clear — global climate change is here to stay. Time is up. We need to act or climate change will lead to inconceivable suffering by billions of people.

Buying Time for Climate Action is the combined narrative of world class experts, all committed to help humanity survive the largely self-induced destructive course. Urgent action is needed to change that course. Determining which actions will lead to helpful change requires insights into the stumbling blocks that will always emerge when change is planned, resulting in lost time. The experts who contributed to this volume, through their networks, wisdom and creativity, have largely concluded that to cope with the stumbling blocks, we should focus on grassroots initiatives.

The book is essential reading for anyone committed to helping prevent an existential disaster to humanity, and move exciting plans into effective action.

Buying Time for Climate Action: Exploring Ways around Stumbling Blocks retails for US$18 / £15 (paperback) and US$25 / £20 (hardcover) and is also available in electronic formats. To order or know more about the book, visit http://www.worldscientific.com/worldscibooks/10.1142/12641

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About World Scientific Publishing Co.

World Scientific Publishing is a leading international independent publisher of books and journals for the scholarly, research and professional communities. World Scientific collaborates with prestigious organisations like the Nobel Foundation and US National Academies Press to bring high quality academic and professional content to researchers and academics worldwide. The company publishes about 600 books and over 140 journals in various fields annually. To find out more about World Scientific, please visit www.worldscientific.com.

For more information, contact WSPC Communications at communications@wspc.com.

Corporate influence linked to slow implementation of public health policies globally


Peer-Reviewed Publication

KAROLINSKA INSTITUTET

Implementation of WHO’s recommended public health policies on alcohol, unhealthy foods and tobacco has been slow globally, according to a study led by researchers at Karolinska Institutet and the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, published in the journal The Lancet Global Health. The study found particularly low implementation in poor, less democratic countries and where corporations had more influence for example through corruption and political favoritism.

In 2013, the World Health Organization’s 194 member states endorsed a list of so-called ‘Best Buy’ policies to combat non-communicable diseases (NCDs), such as heart disease, cancer, diabetes and chronic lung disease.

The list includes 19 interventions targeted at preventing, monitoring and treating NCDs, with a particular focus on harmful products such as tobacco, alcohol and unhealthy foods. These policies could play a vital role in achieving the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goal target of cutting premature NCD mortality by a third between 2015 and 2030.

In the study, the researchers examined to what extent WHO member states had implemented the policies and analyzed if national level indicators correlated with the degree of implementation. The analysis is based on three so-called NCD progress monitor reports, where the degree of implementation of NCD policies is reported, as well as a framework of national indicators developed by the study authors.

The researchers note that on average, only a third of the public health policies had been fully implemented in 2020. When awarding a half-point for partially implemented policies, the average implementation score was 47 percent in 2020, up from 45.9 percent in 2017 and 39.0 percent in 2015.

Low scores for alcohol, junk food and tobacco measures

Implementation was lowest for policies targeting alcohol, unhealthy foods and tobacco. For example, around two-thirds of countries had not implemented WHO recommended restrictions on marketing of unhealthy food to children in 2020. Implementation of measures targeting alcohol use, including restrictions on sales and advertising, even eased between 2015 and 2020, while for measures targeting tobacco, it improved somewhat. The most widely implemented interventions were clinical guidelines and national action plans and targets to combat NCDs.

“Our study found slow overall implementation of WHO’s recommended NCD policies, especially when it comes to measures targeted at risk factors such as smoking, alcohol and unhealthy foods,” says corresponding author Hampus Holmer, researcher at the Department of Global Public Health, Karolinska Institutet, who conducted the study in collaboration with Luke Allen, research fellow at the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, U.K., and Professor Simon Wigley at Bilkent University, Turkey.

“This is worrying since non-communicable disease is already the most common cause of death, including premature death, in the world today. Several of these diseases are also linked to an increased risk of dying of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 or tuberculosis,” Hampus Holmer adds.

Progress was especially slow in low-income countries and countries with less democracy. At the bottom of the list are three countries in West Africa—Equatorial Guinea, Guinea-Bissau and Sierra Leone—with one to two partially implemented policies. Norway and Turkey are at the top of the list with 90 percent fully or partially implemented measures.

Correlation with corporate influence

The researchers found that the positive relationship between democracy on implementation was cancelled out in countries with above-average levels of corporate influence. Corporate influence was measured using an existing index with 25 metrics of corporate power, including corruption, bribery, government official favoritism, foreign investments and foreign contributions to political campaigns. Lobbying was not part of the assessment due to a lack of reliable data for many countries, which is a limitation of the study.

“Our analysis shows that corporate political influence is associated with the degree of implementation – the more influence corporations had, the lower the degree of implementation of preventive public health measures,” says Luke Allen, the first author of the study. “While we cannot establish causality, our findings indicate that more work is needed to support particularly low-income countries in introducing effective NCD policies, especially around commercial determinants.”

The researchers also found a significant positive correlation between the proportion of deaths due to NCDs and policy implementation, suggesting that policymakers are more prone to act as the burden of NCDs grows. However, delayed action could be problematic as the impact of prevention may take years to have its full effect.

Funding was provided by the National Institutes for Health Research, the Swedish Research Council, the Fulbright Commission, and the Swedish Society of Medicine. No conflicts of interest were reported.

Publication: “Implementation of non-communicable disease policies from 2015 to 2020: a geopolitical analysis of 194 countries.” Luke N Allen, Simon Wigley, Hampus Holmer, The Lancet Global Health, online Oct. 19, 2021, doi: 10.1016/PIIS2214-109X(21)00359-4

Europeans want climate action but show little appetite for radical lifestyle change -– new polling


Reports and Proceedings

UNIVERSITY OF CAMBRIDGE

Europeans want urgent action on climate change but remain committed meat-eaters and question policy proposals such as banning the sale of new petrol vehicles after 2030, according to a new poll from the YouGov-Cambridge Centre for Public Opinion Research that surveyed environmental attitudes in seven European countries, including the UK.

The results – part of a collaboration with Cambridge Zero, the University’s climate initiative – also found that as the UK prepares to host crucial climate talks in Glasgow next month, barely a third of British adults have noticed that the event is taking place.

According to polling conducted last week, just 31% of British adults have read or heard much about COP26 so far, compared with 63% answering to the contrary – either “not very much” or “nothing at all”. These numbers have also barely changed in two months.

When the same question was asked as part of the main, international fieldwork in August, results showed a slightly larger difference of 28% versus 67%. Predictably, the other populations showed even less impact, such as 17% versus 75% in France, 9% versus 84% in Sweden and 7% versus 83% in Germany.

However, the poll indicates that while survey participants may not be following COP26, a significant majority of the 9,000 people polled across the UK, Germany, France, Denmark, Sweden, Spain and Italy strongly support many of the aims of the talks, at least in principle.

Dr Emily Shuckburgh OBE, Director of Cambridge Zero, said:
“As the impacts of climate change are starting to be felt everywhere, COP26 should be seen as a vital summit where the world must deliver immediate and meaningful climate action. But the bad news is that most people have still barely noticed that the world leaders who can actually take the actions needed will be in our own backyard.”

Dr Joel Rogers de Waal, Academic Director of YouGov, said:
“The good news for COP26 organisers is that in every country surveyed, the vast majority are on board with the programme, at least in principle. In each national sample, most agreed that climate change is a genuine phenomenon and a considerable concern, and rejected the idea that its seriousness is being exaggerated.”

Beyond overall terms of debate, however, the same findings also indicate both strong support for certain environmental agendas – the polling showed widespread enthusiasm for “rewilding”, with 70% support in Britain and 79% in Spain for programmes to restore parts of the country to their natural state – and some obvious challenges.

However, when it comes to making lifestyle changes, participants were less enthusiastic. Despite the clear environmental benefits of eating less meat, all seven countries showed majorities who eat meat at least several times a week. Within the meat-eating section of respondents, only a small proportion claimed to have reduced their meat consumption over the past 12 months, and of those, generally around half or under had done so for environmental reasons.

Attitudes towards environmental action at the policy level are a mixed bag. In nearly every country, large portions support the policy of greatly expanding government investment in renewable energy, such as solar, wind and tidal power, including majorities or pluralities in Britain (66%), Germany (52%), Denmark (65%), Sweden (47%), Spain (74%) and Italy (69%). Only France was an outlier in this respect, where just 24% said the same.

But in other areas, public support is tentative and variable, such as bans on the sale of petrol or diesel cars and vans, or a frequent flyer tax.

Poll results also give a sense of public attitudes towards the new environmental activism. Additional polling for the project at the start of September asked British voters two questions regarding Extinction Rebellion – one about methods, the other about message. On the former, a 53% majority said the methods used by the protest group generally go too far, compared with only 10% saying they got the balance about right and 7% saying they didn’t go far enough. On the latter, however, only 38% thought the environmental warnings of Extinction Rebellion generally overstate the situation, next to a combined 41% saying that they describe the situation about right (32%) or even understate it (9%).

“The most powerful protest movements are those that ultimately manage to inspire and co-opt the wider population, creating a sense of social momentum that becomes impossible for the political centre to ignore,” said de Waal. “By contrast, acts of civic vandalism that specifically target the basic necessities of daily life are more likely to do the opposite, since by infuriating the public, they only make it easier for governments to ignore the message behind the action.”

All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov Plc. Total sample sizes were: Britain= 1767; Germany=2108; France=1035; Denmark=1009; Sweden=1015; Spain=1050; Italy=1000. Fieldwork was undertaken online between 6th – 23rd August, 2021. For each country, the figures have been weighted and are representative of the adult population aged 18+.

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THE LANCET: Urgent action needed to integrate climate change mitigation into COVID-19 recovery plans to address global inequities in health and build a sustainable future

Peer-Reviewed Publication

THE LANCET

NEWS RELEASE 

Peer-reviewed/Review

  • The Lancet Countdown’s sixth annual report tracks 44 indicators of health impacts that are directly linked to climate change - and shows key trends are getting worse and exacerbating already existing health and social inequities.
  • Global leaders have the opportunity to put actions and policies in place that will address these stark inequities, improve health, and deliver economic and environmentally sustainable COVID-19 recovery plans.
  • Countries must commit to more ambitious climate plans that incorporate health equity and societal support to ensure a more suitable future for all.  

The 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: code red for a healthy future outlines the growing risks to health and climate. These risks exacerbate the health hazards already faced by many, particularly in communities exposed to food and water insecurity, heatwaves, and the spread of infectious diseases. The authors call for urgent, globally coordinated action to mitigate climate change and build a healthier, sustainable future for all.

  • Many current COVID-19 recovery plans are not compatible with the Paris Agreement and will therefore have long-term health implications.
  • Despite the detrimental climate effects, the world continues to subsidise fossil fuels. In 2018, 65 out of the 84 countries analysed by Lancet Countdown researchers had net-negative carbon prices equivalent to an overall subsidising of fossil fuels. The median value of the subsidy was US$1 billion, with some countries providing net subsidies to fossil fuels in the tens of billions of dollars each year. The 84 countries surveyed are responsible for around 92% of global COemissions.
  • In 2020, adults over 65 were affected by 3.1 billion more days of heatwave exposure than in the 1986–2005 baseline average. Chinese, Indian, American, Japanese, and Indonesian senior citizens were the most affected.
  • Climate change and its drivers are creating ideal conditions for infectious disease transmission, potentially undoing decades of progress to control diseases such as dengue fever, chikungunya, Zika, malaria, and cholera.
  • Healthcare systems are ill-prepared for current and future climate-induced health shocks. Only 45 (49%) of 91 countries in 2021 reported having carried out a climate change and health vulnerability and adaptation assessment.

The COVID-19 pandemic has demonstrated the need for increased international co-operation in the face of global crises. Politicians must show leadership by moving beyond rhetoric and take action at the upcoming UN Climate Change Conference (COP26), which will start on Sunday 31 October 2021 in Glasgow, Scotland. Carbon emissions must be rapidly reduced to improve health and to provide a more equitable, sustainable future.

 

As countries commit trillions of dollars to restart their economies in the midst of the COVID-19 pandemic, the report urges political leaders and policy makers to use this public spending to reduce inequities. Promoting a green recovery by creating new and green jobs, and safeguarding health, will build healthier populations now and in the future.   

A fossil-fuel driven recovery – which includes large subsidies for oil, gas and coal and limited financial support for clean energy – could potentially meet narrow and near-term economic targets, but may then push the world irrevocably off course and make it impossible to meet the maximum 1.5C of warming as outlined in the Paris Agreement. This has a toll on human health, hardest hitting to those people living in low income countries, whose populations have made the smallest relative contribution to climate change. As governments turn from emergency spending to long term post-pandemic recovery it is vital that more of these funds are spent in ways that reduce climate change, such as promoting jobs in zero-carbon energy, where investment lags behind what is necessary to keep within 1.5C of warming.

The Lancet Countdown report shows that many countries are under-prepared for the health effects of climate change. In a 2021 World Health Organisation survey of health and climate change, only 45 of 91 countries surveyed (49%) say they have a national health and climate change plan or strategy. Only 8 out of those 45 countries in the analysis reported that their assessments of the effects of climate change on their citizens’ health had influenced the allocation of human and financial resources. The survey found 69% of countries in this analysis reported insufficient financing was a barrier to implementing these plans.

“Climate change is here and we’re already seeing it damaging human health across the world,” said Prof Anthony Costello, Executive Director of the Lancet Countdown.   

“As the COVID-19 crisis continues, every country is facing some aspect of the climate crisis too. The 2021 report shows that populations of 134 countries have experienced an increase in exposure to wildfires. Millions of farmers and construction workers could have lost income because on some days it’s just too hot for them to work. Drought is more widespread than ever before. The Lancet Countdown’s report has over 40 indicators and far too many of them are flashing red.   

“But the good news is that the huge efforts countries are making to kick-start their economies after the pandemic can be orientated towards responding to climate change and COVID-19 simultaneously. We have a choice. The recovery from COVID-19 can be a green recovery that puts us on the path of improving human health and reducing inequities, or it can be a business-as-usual recovery that puts us all at risk.” [1]

The Lancet Countdown report represents the consensus of leading researchers from 38 academic institutions and UN agencies. The 44 indicators in the 2021 report expose an unabated rise in the health impacts of climate change: 

  • The potential for outbreaks of dengue, chikungunya and Zika is increasing most rapidly in countries with a very high human development index, including European countries. Suitability for malaria infections is increasing in cooler highland areas of countries with a low human development index. Coasts around northern Europe and the US are becoming more conducive to bacteria which produce gastroenteritis, severe wound infections, and sepsis. In resource-limited countries the same dynamic is putting decades of progress towards controlling or eliminating these diseases at risk.
  • There are 569.6 million people living less than five metres above current sea levels, who could face rising risks of increased flooding, more intense storms, and soil and water salinification. Many of these people could be forced to permanently leave these areas and migrate further inland.

Maria Romanello, lead author of the Lancet Countdown report, said:

“This is our sixth report tracking progress on health and climate change and unfortunately we are still not seeing the accelerated change we need. At best the trends in emissions, renewable energy and tackling pollution have improved only very slightly. This year we saw people suffering intense heatwaves, deadly floods and wildfires. These are grim warnings that for every day that we delay our response to climate change, the situation gets more critical. 

“Governments are spending trillions of dollars on the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. This gives us an opportunity to take a safer, healthier, low carbon path, but we have yet to do so. Less than one dollar in five being spent on the COVID-19 recovery is expected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and the overall impact is likely to be negative. We are recovering from a health crisis in a way that’s putting our health at risk.  

“It’s time to realise that no one is safe from the effects of climate change. As we recover from COVID-19 we still have the time to take a different path and create a healthier future for us all.” [1]

Lancet Editorial adds, “The world is watching COP26—widely perceived as the last and best opportunity to reset the path to global net zero carbon emissions by 2050—and public interest in climate change is higher than ever, in part due to global youth activism and engagement…This year’s indicators give a bleak outlook: global inequities are increasing, and the direction of travel is worsening all health outcomes. Health services in low-income and middle-income countries are in particularly urgent need of strengthening…However, the future is not necessarily hopeless…Succumbing to the climate emergency is not inevitable.”

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Key report findings

Just as the world is failing to deliver an equitable supply of COVID-19 vaccines, the data in this report exposes similar inequities in the global response to climate change. In general, it is the countries lowest on the human development index that are often least responsible for rising greenhouse gas emissions and are lagging behind in climate change adaptation and mitigation efforts and in realising the associated health benefits of accelerated decarbonisation.

  • In 2020, up to of 19% of the global land surface was affected by extreme drought in any given month, a value that had not exceeded 13% between 1950 and 1999.
  • Climate change is driving an increase in the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought events, threatening water security, sanitation, and food productivity, and increasing the risk of wildfires and exposure to pollutants. The five years with the most areas affected by extreme drought have all occurred since 2015. The Horn of Africa, a region impacted by recurrent extreme droughts and food insecurity, was one of the most affected areas in 2020.
  • Climate change threatens to accelerate food insecurity, which affected 2 billion people in 2019. Rising temperatures shorten the time in which plants reach maturity, meaning smaller yields and an increased strain on our food systems. Maize has seen a 6% decrease in crop yield potential, wheat a 3% decrease and rice a 1.8% decrease, compared to 1981 – 2010 levels.
  • Average sea surface temperature has increased in the territorial waters of nearly 70% (95 out of 136) of coastal countries analysed, compared to 2003-2005. This reflects an increasing threat to their marine food security. Worldwide 3.3 billion people depend on marine food.
  • In 2021 the World Health Organisation found just over half of countries that answered to the Health and Climate Change Global Survey (37 out of 70) had a national health and climate change strategy in place, a similar proportion to 2018. Nearly three-quarters of countries surveyed said finances prevented them developing such a strategy, with others citing a lack of skilled people, being restricted by COVID-19 and lacking research and evidence.
  • Globally, climate change adaptation funding directed at health systems represents just 0.3% of total climate change adaptation funding.

NOTES TO EDITORS

This study was funded by Wellcome Trust. A full list of researchers and institutions is available in the paper.

The labels have been added to this press release as part of a project run by the Academy of Medical Sciences seeking to improve the communication of evidence. For more information, please see: http://www.sciencemediacentre.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/AMS-press-release-labelling-system-GUIDANCE.pdf if you have any questions or feedback, please contact The Lancet press office pressoffice@lancet.com

[1] Quote direct from author and cannot be found in the text of the Article.

IF YOU WISH TO PROVIDE A LINK FOR YOUR READERS, PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING, WHICH WILL GO LIVE AT THE TIME THE EMBARGO LIFTS: https://www.thelancet.com/countdown-health-climate

Salmon decline impacted by “squeeze” of combined river and sea stressors


Study traces 40 years of change on Vancouver Island river-to-sea salmon and trout pathway


Peer-Reviewed Publication

SIMON FRASER UNIVERSITY

Image 1 

IMAGE: COHO SMOLT. view more 

CREDIT: JULIAN GAN

Researchers from Simon Fraser University’s Salmon Watershed Lab have found that recent declines of Pacific salmon and trout are associated with 40 years of changes in their combined marine and freshwater ecosystems. 

Led by lab researcher Kyle Wilson, the study found that stressors in both environments combine to impact fish resiliency. “It’s not just the ocean that is driving declines,” says Wilson, a former SFU Banting postdoctoral fellow. “The combination of marine and freshwater stressors effectively ‘squeezes’ some salmon populations by lowering survival in both the river and the sea.” 

The study, published today in the journal Global Change Biology, traces declining numbers in five salmon species found in the Keogh River near Port Hardy on Vancouver Island. 

The declines were found to coincide with combinations of stressful environmental changes including fluctuating ocean climate, increases in coastal seals and other competing salmon, warmer water temperatures, and increased watershed logging.

CAPTION

Keogh sampling.

CREDIT

Colin BaileyWilson says the study findings can help inform policies such as the federal government’s recent Pacific Salmon Strategy Initiative (PSSI) which will allocate $647.1 million to a wide variety of conservation and scientific efforts to help recover salmon. 

CAPTION

Morice Steelhead.

CREDIT

Jonathan Moore

The research was carried out by Wilson and SFU biology professor Jonathan Moore, along with lab researchers Colin Bailey and Provincial collaborator Trevor Davies. The study’s research funders include the Habitat Trust Conservation Fund. 


CAPTION

Keogh e-fishing sampling 2020.

CREDIT

Sean Naman

USA

How political partisanship governed in-person schooling during pandemic


Peer-Reviewed Publication

MICHIGAN STATE UNIVERSITY

Return to school 

IMAGE: A KEY PREDICTOR OF WHETHER A SCHOOL OFFERED ONLY REMOTE INSTRUCTION WAS THE PROPORTION OF THE COUNTY THAT VOTED DEMOCRATIC IN THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION, THE RESEARCH FOUND. view more 

CREDIT: CREATIVE COMMONS VIA PEXELS

One of the most controversial topics related to the COVID-19 pandemic, in-person schooling, wasn’t necessarily determined by the severity of the virus. New research from Michigan State University reveals how political partisanship influenced schools’ reopening plans amid the global pandemic.

The study, published in the journal Educational Researcher, showed that partisan politics played a large role in local decisions about whether students would attend school in person in the fall of 2020 — a more prominent role than COVID severity, in fact.

“A key predictor of whether a school offered only remote instruction was the proportion of the county that voted Democratic in the 2016 presidential election,” said Sarah Reckhow, associate professor of political science. “Based on public opinion polling in Michigan, partisanship and support for Trump were also strong predictors of the public’s support for offering in-person school.”

In counties that voted heavily Democratic, Reckhow said that the data showed school districts were almost three times as likely to open fully remote in fall 2020. In heavily Republican counties, school districts were nearly 1.8 times more likely to offer in-person instruction. School districts in political battleground counties were in the middle.

The study also found that partisan politics did not play a major role in state-level decisions — governors ordered school closures in spring 2020 and left decisions to districts in the fall of 2020, regardless of partisanship.

The study was co-authored by Matthew Grossmann, director of MSU’s Institute for Public Policy and Social Research and professor of political science; Katharine Strunk, professor of education policy and the Clifford E. Erickson Distinguished Chair in Education; and Meg Turner, project manager for MSU’s Education Policy Innovation Collaborative. The researchers collected and analyzed data on COVID-19 rates, educator unionization, presidential voting records, district demographics, state education policies since the start of the pandemic, local district reopening plans and public opinion on reopening in the politically competitive state of Michigan.

Surprisingly, the study showed that it took quite a bit of time for the policy response on education during the pandemic to become polarized.

In spring of 2020, the response from states was consistent, regardless of the party of their governors. “It wasn’t until fall 2020 that we saw partisan polarization become a key factor in both local district decision making and public opinion,” Reckhow said.

While relying on local constituencies to implement challenging choices may be a simpler option for the federal system, the researchers hope their findings serve as a warning: Partisanship and polarization matter in local decisions, even when the boards making those decisions are officially “nonpartisan” elected officers.

“COVID-19 continues to divide communities and leaving decisions up to local control doesn’t mean that local public health conditions will guide decision making,” Reckhow said. “If state leaders want local officials to be more responsive to local context and conditions than partisan attitudes, then more guidance and direction from the state likely would be required.”

(Note for media: Please include the following link to the study in all online media coverage: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.3102/0013189X211048840)