No ‘silver bullet’ for UK reaching net zero carbon emissions for electricity

Peer-Reviewed Publication

IMPERIAL COLLEGE LOND

CO2 emissions from electricity in the UK fell by two thirds in the last decade due to several factors working together, rather than a single panacea.

This decline, faster than in any other large country, was driven by a complex interplay of policies and events, according to research from Imperial College London published today in the journal Joule. Though the UK is two-thirds of the way there, if the country is to meet the Government’s own target of net-zero emissions from electricity by 2035, there will need to be further policies and changes, say the authors.

Worldwide, electricity generation must decarbonise rapidly if global climate targets are to be met. In Britain, CO2 emissions were reduced by 66% between 2012 and 2019 through a range of efforts to phase out coal, build renewable capacity, raise carbon prices and reduce demand. Understanding the relative success of different policies during that time, as well as which combinations amplified or counteracted one another, could help other nations in their decarbonisation efforts.

Study authors Professor Richard Green from Imperial College Business School and Dr Iain Staffell from Imperial’s Centre for Environmental Policy, calculated the impact of the various changes to British electricity generation over the period. They then quantified the impact of each change, on carbon emissions as well as on electricity prices, looking at factors such as subsidised investment in renewable energy generation, regulation-driven closure of coal power stations, rising carbon prices and energy efficiency measures, which have reduced demand for electricity by 10% over the period studied.

Dr Staffell, Lecturer in Sustainable Energy Systems at Imperial’s Centre for Environmental Policy said: “It can be hard to measure the contribution of individual policies as they often happen simultaneously, interact with each other and are affected by external events. We used a theoretical framework to simulate the impacts of drivers of change in real-world scenarios and to measure their effects. We were able to allocate the CO2 reductions to the changes that occurred in the electricity system in Britain over the decade, including policies, prices and fossil fuel consumption.”

The researchers found that there were four main drivers of CO2 reduction: subsidised investment in renewable generation, regulation-driven closure of coal power stations, rising carbon prices and energy efficiency measures. The effectiveness of each one remained stable over the period despite the changing background and they each saved a similar amount of CO2 emissions in 2019 - between 19 and 29 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year (MtCO2). 

“This reinforces the conclusion that there is no ‘silver bullet’ and that a multifaceted approach to achieving the final third and reaching net zero will be essential,” said Dr Staffell.

There were fourteen overall drivers considered in the study: the biggest was the building of renewable energy sources, such as wind turbines and solar PV panels, which represents around a quarter of CO2 reductions over the study period. Setting a stronger carbon price accounted for a fifth of reductions, as did lower demand due to efficiency measures such as improved standards for household appliances and the spread of LED lighting.

Professor Green, Professor of Sustainable Energy Business at Imperial College Business School said: “Britain was a useful example to use to understand the drivers of CO2 emission reductions because there were a lot of different policies in play between 2012 and 2019. Although Britain has achieved good results so far, the study shows that there is no one single answer to drive such change. Having a strong carbon tax drove the switch from coal to gas stations, which have lower emissions, and at the same time building a lot of renewable sources of electricity meant we ran those stations less.”

Looking to the future, he continued: “We still run a traditional power system that has renewables built into it, but we turn gas on and off depending on demand. The next step would be to reduce our reliance on gas by collaboration with the continent, sharing at times when we have more wind than we need and borrowing back when the weather is calmer. This has proved successful for the Danes who have interconnected with Norway, Sweden and Germany in this way for over 20 years.”

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JOURNAL

Joule

DOI

10.1016/j.joule.2021.09.011 

ARTICLE TITLE

The contribution of taxes, subsidies, and regulations to British electricity decarbonization

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

20-Oct-2021

Digital technology didn’t kill media but gave it new life: QUT researcher

A new book delves into how the internet disrupted the recorded music, newspaper, film, and television industries and what this tells us about surviving technological disruption

Book Announcement

QUEENSLAND UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY

 

IMAGE: PROFESSOR AMANDA LOTZ. PHOTO: DR T.J. THOMSON view more 

CREDIT: DR T.J. THOMSON

BRISBANE, AUSTRALIA: The past 20 years have seen some global media companies crumble in the face of digital disruption, but many have survived and thrived, says a QUT media studies expert who argues against common misconceptions on the impact of the internet.

“Piracy did not wreck the recording industry, Netflix isn't killing Hollywood movies, and information does not want to be free,” said Professor Amanda Lotz, a media scholar with QUT’s Digital Media Research Centre, and the author of Media Disrupted: Surviving Pirates, Cannibals and Streaming Wars (MIT Press, October 2021).

“The four major media industries – newspapers, recorded music, movies and television – are ground zero of digital disruption but new technologies didn’t introduce ‘new media’. Instead, they offered existing media new tools to reach people,” said Professor Lotz.

“The internet introduced paradigmatic shifts in so many facets of life that it ranks with the engines that brought us the mechanisation of the industrial revolution.

“The arrival of the internet as a technology that could distribute words, music, and video files to people’s homes and mobile devices was a much greater development than the emergence of a new competitor, regulation, or broader economic shift that would merely require business evolution.

“Yes, we have seen the phenomenal rise of global companies like Netflix and Spotify, along with the death of a celebrated record label like EMI and untold numbers of newspapers and magazines but these are the extremes.

“Hundreds of others have had their competitive playing fields radically altered but responded by undergoing reorganisation to stay alive.

“For example, what we once knew as ‘cable companies’ in the US, which were written off as pre-digital dinosaurs, transitioned into controlling access to the internet.

“Other industry sectors found their businesses cut off at the knees as the tools of internet communication made them inferior and unnecessary. This was the fate of video rental and a great deal of music retail.”

Professor Lotz’s book uses a blend of business history and analysis to explore how the four media industries responded to what she calls the ‘seismic disruption’ of the internet and associated technologies, and what lessons can be drawn from their experiences.

“Their stories of business transformation are vital to the thousands employed in them globally, but they are also important to the much wider expanse of humanity that engages music, journalism, and video daily,” she said.

“The internet enabled new ways for people to experience and pay for music, thus the primary source of revenue for the recorded music industry shifted from selling music to licensing it.

“News organisations struggled to remake businesses in the face of steep declines in advertiser spending, while the film industry split its business among movies that compelled people to go to cinemas and others that are better suited for streaming.

“The four industries each have a different story to tell but they all have in common the fact that many initial responses mistook the nature of the challenge the internet and digital technologies posed.

“For much of the first decade of disruption, so called ‘digital’ media were perceived as a separate industry that would conquer those that predated the internet. Even now, mistaking the nature of the problem continues to lead industry leaders to search for irrelevant solutions, regulators to establish the wrong policies, and consumers to misunderstand how and why the companies behind core technologies of everyday life have grown so powerful.”

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To request a review copy of Media Disrupted: Surviving Pirates, Cannibals and Streaming Wars, email mitpress-publicity@mit.edu

Media contact:

Amanda Weaver, QUT Media, 07 3138 3151, amanda.weaver@qut.edu.au

After hours: Rod Chester, 0407 585 901, media@qut.edu.au

 

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DOI

ISBN: 9780262046091 

 

UC San Diego physicist helps launch national network examining Earth’s planetary limits

Essay by five authors warns of depleted resources, urges new PLAN for the future

Reports and Proceedings

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA - SAN DIEGO

University of California San Diego Physics Professor Tom Murphy is among five authors of an essay, appearing in the November 2021 issue of the journal Energy Research & Social Science, that cautions current levels of worldwide economic growth, energy use and resource consumption will overshoot Earth’s finite limits.

The essay, “Modernity is Incompatible with Planetary Limits: Developing a PLAN for the Future,” also announces the establishment of a network of scholars and researchers to promote the understanding of planetary limits, envision scenarios for humanity to thrive within planetary limits, better educate college students about these challenges and advise government officials and communities in developing effective responses.

“We all are a product of our times, where ‘new,’ ‘shiny,’ ‘better’ seem normal and ‘more, more, more’ seems good, but that is a reflection of the abnormal period of the last century or so," said Murphy. "If humanity keeps growing its impact on the planet, we will overshoot planetary limits, so we need to plan to power down while there’s still time. Even the founders of economics recognized that Earth’s resources are finite and growth is but a transient phase.”

An astrophysicist who has applied the principles of physics to studying Earth’s limitations, Murphy recently published a rigorous examination of these issues in “Energy and Human Ambitions on a Finite Planet” (Murphy discusses the book in this question-and-answer article and this video).

In their new essay, the authors wrote, “early flying machines invariably crashed despite an exhilarating brief airborne interval mainly because the contraptions were simply not built according to aerodynamic principles of sustainable flight. Likewise, the present economy is not built on principles for sustainable, steady-state operation.”

Essay senior author Ben McCall and the authors acknowledge “the thought that growth should come to an end is counter to our culture.” But keeping at this pace, society is not going to get the future it’s been promised, according to McCall.

“We shouldn’t expect a ‘Jetsons’ future with flying cars, but with intentional planning we can hope to do better than a ‘Flintstones’ future,” he said.

The authors also stress they are preaching prudence, rather than trying to sound alarmist. 

“We hope this essay gets people to step back from the familiar, up-close view of their place in the world to see a broader perspective on the challenges modern society faces going forward,” said David Murphy, associate professor and department chair of environmental studies at St. Lawrence University. “We are not making predictions of ‘when.’ Our point is there are fundamental limits to our resources on this finite planet, and if we continue using them at this pace, we’ll exhaust our resources and that outcome won’t be good. We need to find ways to power our world without destroying it.”

Melody LeHew, a professor of interior design and fashion studies at Kansas State University, said more than just engineers, economists and biologists need to study these and related fields, but others need to get out of their silos to contribute to solutions. 

“As someone who studies fashion, I have seen how our current systems can lead to tremendous waste of resources, but also how dedicated scholars working together can make even the fashion industry more sustainable,” she said.

Anyone can join the network as a subscriber to receive updates about network activities. Active scholars can join as members to participate in forums or collaborators to receive full access to the network. Visit the PLAN Academic website for more information.

“Our hope is that we might spark debate and deep thinking about how human civilization might thrive for millennia to come, rather than simply survive the bottlenecks of the next few decades,” said Tom Love, professor emeritus of anthropology at Linfield University. “We want scholars to ask what role their current research plays in addressing these issues and contribute to the understanding how human activity might fit within planetary limits.”

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JOURNAL

Energy Research & Social Science

DOI

10.1016/j.erss.2021.102239 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Commentary/editorial

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Modernity is incompatible with planetary limits: Developing a PLAN for the future

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

1-Nov-2021

Rethinking grid integration of a massive renewable power expansion to achieve carbon neutrality in China and beyond

Peer-Reviewed Publication

HARVARD JOHN A. PAULSON SCHOOL OF ENGINEERING AND APPLIED SCIENCES

There are many uncertainties about pathways to mid-century carbon neutrality in China and other major emitting nations, but one fundamental aspect is certain: they will require massive expansions of wind and solar power to displace coal- and gas-fired power. The problem is not the cost and feasibility of sufficient renewable generation, but rather the challenges it introduces into the grid because of its variability: the wind doesn’t always blow and the sun doesn’t always shine. 

Now, a team of researchers from Harvard University, Huazhong University of Science and Technology and Tsinghua University have developed a cross-sector, high-resolution model to find the best and most cost-effective way for China’s power system to become carbon neutral by 2050. A comprehensive strategy moving beyond conventional planning assumptions to include large offshore wind generation, power storage, electric vehicles, green hydrogen production, and expanded transmission to balance power on a national basis can sharply reduce costs of integrating renewable power into the grid. In fact, the results show that realizing the carbon neutrality of China’s power system by 2050 is not only feasible but need not necessarily cost more than reliance on coal- and gas-fired power, with no carbon constraints at all, to meet future electricity demands. 

READ A FULL RESEARCH BRIEF FOR NON-SPECIALISTS 

The Harvard-China Project on Energy, Economy and Environment is based at the Harvard University John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences in Cambridge, MA, USA.

The Huazhong University of Science and Technology is a public research university located in Wuhan, China. 

Tsinghua University is a public research university in Beijing, China.

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JOURNAL

Joule

DOI

10.1016/j.joule.2021.10.006 

Northern lakes warming six times faster in the past 25 years

Peer-Reviewed Publication

YORK UNIVERSITY

 

IMAGE: ICE BREAKUP ON ONEIDA LAKE IN NEW YORK view more 

CREDIT: PHOTO BY PROFESSOR LARS RUDSTAM, CORNELL UNIVERSITY

TORONTO, Oct. 21, 2021 – Lakes in the Northern Hemisphere are warming six times faster since 1992 than any other time period in the last 100 years, research led by York University has found.

Lake Superior, the most northern of the Great Lakes which straddles the Canada/United States border, is one of the fastest warming lakes, losing more than two months of ice cover since ice conditions started being recorded in 1857. In Lake Suwa, in Japan, ice formed close to 26 days later per century since 1897 and is now only freezing twice every decade, while Grand Traverse Bay in Lake Michigan had one of the fastest ice-off trends, melting about 16 days earlier per century.

“We found that lakes are losing on average 17 days of ice cover per century. Alarmingly, what we found is that warming in the past 25 years, from 1992 to 2016, was six times faster than any other period in the last 100 years,” says Associate Professor Sapna Sharma of the Faculty of Science at York University, who led the study with Professor David Richardson at the State University of New York at New Paltz and climate scientist Iestyn Woolway, PhD, of the European Space Agency Climate Office, United Kingdom.

The researchers re-assessed ice trends of 60 lakes for the first time since 2004 for 60 lakes by studying ice phenology records ranging from 107 to 204 years old from prior to the Industrial Revolution. “Many of our lakes may be approaching a tipping point to ice-free conditions which will have vast cultural and ecological implications,” says Sharma.

On average, these lakes were freezing 11 days later and thawing 6.8 days earlier. Extremely warm winters over the last several decades have contributed to the increasing rate of ice loss, especially in larger lakes and in southern and coastal regions.

“In addition, we found that the duration of winter ice cover has decreased, particularly since 1995, to the point where some lakes are beginning to have more winters with minimal or even no ice cover. For example, some deep lakes in Switzerland and Germany, which historically used to freeze each winter, have permanently lost their ice cover in the past few decades,” says Richardson.

Of the lakes studied, 40 are in North America including Lakes Michigan and Superior, Detroit Lake in Minnesota, Lakes Monona and Mendota in Wisconsin, Cazenovia and Oneida lakes in New York, and several in Ontario – Lake Simcoe, Lake Nipissing and Lake of Bays – 18 in Europe, and two in Asia – Lake Baikal in Siberia, Russia, and Lake Suwa in Japan.

“The findings were in line with our expectations as air temperature has increased over recent decades,” says Woolway. “Air temperature is one of the most important climatic drivers of lake ice dynamics, owing to its additive effects on various components of the lake energy budget.”

Lake ice phenology is considered an important sentinel of climate change. A reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is necessary if increases in air temperature and decreases in lake ice cover are to be mitigated. The researchers say this would also help limit ecological, cultural, and socioeconomic consequences, including increased evaporation rates, warmer water temperatures, degraded water quality, and the formation of toxic algal blooms.

Records have been kept for several decades to centuries detailing lake ice-on and ice-off times because of its importance to refrigeration, transportation, recreation and cultural traditions, as well as economic impacts.

The paper, Loss of Ice Cover, Shifting Phenology, and More Extreme Events in Northern Hemisphere Lakes, was published in the October issue of the Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences.

CAPTION

Lake Kallavesi, spring 2021, Finland.

CREDIT

Photo by Johanna Korhonen, World Meteorological Organization

York University champions new ways of thinking that drive teaching and research excellence. Our students receive the education they need to create big ideas that make an impact on the world. Meaningful and sometimes unexpected careers result from cross-disciplinary programming, innovative course design and diverse experiential learning opportunities. York students and graduates push limits, achieve goals and find solutions to the world’s most pressing social challenges, empowered by a strong community that opens minds. York U is an internationally recognized research university – our 11 faculties and 25 research centres have partnerships with 200+ leading universities worldwide. Located in Toronto, York is the third largest university in Canada, with a strong community of 53,000 students, 7,000 faculty and administrative staff, and more than 300,000 alumni. York U's fully bilingual Glendon Campus is home to Southern Ontario's Centre of Excellence for French Language and Bilingual Postsecondary Education.

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JOURNAL

Journal of Geophysical Research Biogeosciences

DOI

10.1029/2021JG006348 

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Not applicable

ARTICLE TITLE

Loss of Ice Cover, Shifting Phenology, and More Extreme Events in Northern Hemisphere Lakes

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

21-Oct-2021

Disclaimer: AAAS and Eur

First-ever Africa-wide great ape assessment reveals human activity, not habitat availability, is greatest driver of ape abundance

GDP, roads, agricultural land, and human population density are the strongest factors predicting abundance

Peer-Reviewed Publication

WILDLIFE CONSERVATION SOCIETY

 

IMAGE: CHIMPANZEE IN THE REPUBLIC OF CONGO view more 

CREDIT: KYLE DE NOBREGA

NEW YORK (21 October 2021) – The first-ever Africa-wide assessment of great apes – gorillas, bonobos and chimpanzees – finds that human factors, including roads, population density and GDP, determine abundance more than ecological factors such as forest cover.

The findings are published in the American Journal of Primatology by a team of scientists led by the Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology, Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS), and other groups.

Authors looked at 156 sites in 20 countries, developing a model that spans the entire African great ape range to determine abundance, and to identify key factors influencing their distribution at this large scale. The highest densities of apes were found in Central Africa, and the lowest in West Africa.

Said the study’s lead author Isabel Ordaz-Németh of Max Planck Institute for Evolutionary Anthropology: “The findings reveal that the impact of human activities dominates over ecological factors in determining where great apes are still found today. This means that even if suitable habitat is still present at various locations, such as tropical rainforest, apes do not occur anymore or at much lower density, because of human activities.”

Ordaz-Németh added: “Furthermore, the relationship between GDP and great apes indicates a decline of great apes with more developed, larger economies.”

In addition, the study found that only 10.7 percent of the predicted great ape population was found in areas with high levels of legal protection (IUCN Category I and II protected areas).

Said co-author Fiona “Boo” Maisels of WCS: “This study mirrors the recent findings that elephant distribution across the African continent is now also mostly constrained by human activities, rather than environmental variables. Current great ape conservation strategies are largely focused on protected areas, but only one in ten great apes live in these areas. We must improve the protection for the remaining nine-tenths of great apes that are currently outside them, and assess the impacts of alternative policies, infrastructure development or stricter guidelines for resource extraction.”

An important question emerging from these results is whether we can find solutions for harmonizing economic development and the survival of great ape populations.

The authors note that recent assessments of African great ape populations have revealed drastic declines. To successfully protect these endangered species, it is essential to evaluate the effectiveness of policies and outcomes of different scenarios. These scenarios can include, for example, the impact of resource extraction sites, climate change, large scale land-planning, and the implementation of policies that are, for example, related to forest management, or carbon storage policies for climate change mitigation.

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WCS (Wildlife Conservation Society)

MISSION: WCS saves wildlife and wild places worldwide through science, conservation action, education, and inspiring people to value nature. To achieve our mission, WCS, based at the Bronx Zoo, harnesses the power of its Global Conservation Program in nearly 60 nations and in all the world’s oceans and its five wildlife parks in New York City, visited by 4 million people annually. WCS combines its expertise in the field, zoos, and aquarium to achieve its conservation mission. Visit: newsroom.wcs.org Follow: @WCSNewsroom. For more information: 347-840-1242.

 

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JOURNAL

American Journal of Primatology

DOI

10.1002/ajp.23338 

METHOD OF RESEARCH

Meta-analysis

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

Animals

ARTICLE TITLE

Range-wide indicators of African great ape density distribution

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

18-Oct-2021

COI STATEMENT

None

Disclaimer

Climate change lowers nutrition, increases toxicity at base of food web

Research looks at warming, browning effects on freshwater systems

Peer-Reviewed Publication

DARTMOUTH COLLEGE

 

IMAGE: CONTROLLED OUTDOOR ENVIRONMENTS KNOWN AS “MESOCOSMS” WERE USED TO STUDY CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON NUTRITION AND TOXICITY ON THE AQUATIC FOOD WEB. view more 

CREDIT: PHOTO CREDIT: PIANPIAN WU

HANOVER, N.H. – October 25, 2021 – Climate change impacts on freshwater systems can lower nutrition and increase toxicity at the base of the food web, according to research from Dartmouth College and the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.

The research, published in Scientific Reports, focused on the effects of warming water temperatures and browning—a discoloration of water caused by increased dissolved organic matter—using controlled outdoor environments known as mesocosms.

“Climate change scenarios predict increases in temperature and organic matter supply from land to water,” said Pianpian Wu, a postdoctoral fellow at Dartmouth and lead author of the study. “For the first time, we used manipulated mesocosm systems to test the effects of warming and browning.”

Under the expected climate scenario of more warming, changing precipitation patterns, and higher levels of dissolved organic matter, the study looked at the fate of nutritious polyunsaturated fatty acids and toxic methylmercury in the food chain.

The research found that a combination of warmer, browner water resulted in the higher transfer of methylmercury from water to phytoplankton at the base of food web. Lower concentrations of essential polyunsaturated fatty acids in phytoplankton were also observed.

Long-chain polyunsaturated fatty acids—such as omega-3 and omega-6—support the growth and survival of animal and plant life by providing energy and by regulating immune systems. Methylmercury is a form of mercury that is easily absorbed by living organisms and acts a potent neurotoxin.

“The reduction of polyunsaturated acids at the end of the mesocosm experiment with both warming and browning effects was concerning,” said Wu, who began the research as a PhD candidate at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences.

Phytoplankton are the main suppliers of polyunsaturated fatty acids in aquatic ecosystems. According to the study, the less nutritious phytoplankton that result from browning and warmer water cause higher-level organisms—such as zooplankton, fish, other wildlife, and humans—to be exposed to more methylmercury as they consume more to achieve fatty acid quotas. 

“This study shows that the food quality at the base of aquatic food webs deteriorates with climate change,” said Kevin Bishop, professor at the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences and the senior researcher of the study. “The research is important because it places food web investigations within the context of active global change processes.”

While previous research on browning and warming has been conducted in natural environments, this is the only study to rely entirely on controlled mesocosm environments.

The researchers used 24 thermally insulated plastic cylinders to test the effects of various levels of warming and browning under four different scenarios, including a reference scenario without any weathering effect. The mesocosms were controlled at subalpine conditions that are highly prone to climate change effects and relatively poor in dissolved organic matter.

“The use of mesocosms to investigate questions related to ecosystem effects of climate change is particularly important,” said Celia Chen, research professor at Dartmouth and a co-author of the study. “The effects of factors such as temperature and browning can be tested individually and in combination while controlling other environmental conditions. Mesocosms also eliminate the need to travel long distances for field investigations.”

The study was conducted at the WasserCluster Lunz research facility outside of Vienna using lake water from Lunzer See in Lower Austria.

According to the research team, the findings point to the importance of factoring consumption levels in addition to concentration levels when looking at the quality of the food web in freshwater systems.

Martin Kainz and Katharina Winter, from WasserCluster Lunz- Biologische Station; Fernando Valdés, Uppsala University; Siwen Zheng and Rui Wang, Tongji University; and Brian Branfireun, Western University all served as co-authors of the study.

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JOURNAL

Scientific Reports

DOI

10.1038/s41598-021-95742-9 

ARTICLE TITLE

Elevated temperature and browning increase dietary methylmercury, but decrease essential fatty acids at the base of lake food webs

ARTICLE PUBLICATION DATE

19-Aug-2021

Emergence of a novel reassortant avian influenza virus (H10N3) in Eastern China

Peer-Reviewed Publication

SCIENCE CHINA PRESS

 

IMAGE: FIGURE. BIOLOGICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE NOVEL REASSORTANT H10N3 VIRUSES ISOLATED FROM CHICKEN IN EASTERN CHINA. 1) THE NOVEL REASSORTANT H10N3 ISOLATES BOUND TO BOTH AVIAN-TYPE (SAΑ-2,3-GAL) AND HUMAN-TYPE (SAΑ-2,6-GAL) RECEPTORS; 2) THE NOVEL REASSORTANT H10N3 AIVS WERE HIGHLY PATHOGENIC IN MICE; 3) THE NOVEL REASSORTANT H10N3 ISOLATES WERE TRANSMISSIBLE AMONG GUINEA PIGS VIA DIRECT CONTACT AND RESPIRATORY DROPLETS. view more 

CREDIT: ©SCIENCE CHINA PRESS

The first known H10 avian influenza virus (AIV) was isolated from chicken in Germany in 1949 and has undergone multiple reassortment events during decades of circulation. Many H10-subtype AIVs, including H10N1, H10N2, H10N3, H10N6, H10N7, H10N8, and H10N9, are widely distributed in domestic and wild birds. H10-subtype AIVs circulate not only in poultry but have spread to mammals such as minks, pigs, and seals. Transmission of H10-subtype AIVs from birds to humans is uncommon but has occurred. The first reported human infections with a H10 subtype influenza virus occurred in Egypt in 2004. In subsequent surveillance, cross-species transmission of subtype H10 influenza virus has been detected occasionally.  Remarkably, three patients were reportedly infected with the H10N8 subtype influenza virus in China in 2013, two of the infected patients died.  The National Health Commission of the People's Republic of China confirmed the first case of human infection with H10N3 subtype AIV in Zhenjiang, Jiangsu Province, in April 2021. The epidemiological investigation did not find that the patient had a clear history of exposure to the live poultry market, and the H10N3 virus of the same genotype was not isolated locally, so the source of infection could not be determined. This poses a great challenge to prevent the recurrence of human infections with H10N3.

“Tracing the source of the human-origin H10N3 virus and systematic analysis of its biological characteristics are the prerequisites for preventing H10N3 from re-infecting humans.” said associate professor, Xiaoquan, Wang, the co-corresponding author of this work.

During surveillance activities for avian influenza in live bird markets (LBMs) in Eastern China from 2019 to 2021, the research team isolated several avian H10N3 viruses, and these strains were highly homologous to human-origin H10N3 strain. In this study, two avian-origin H10N3 viruses were first isolated from Jiangsu Province in December 2019, indicating that this type of virus has been silently circulating in poultry for at least 17 months before causing human infections. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the HA and NA sequences, which belonged to the Eurasian lineage, were derived from H10N8 and H7N3, respectively, and were prevalent in Zhejiang province; whereas the internal genes of H10N3 were all derived from H9N2 AIVs.  Interestingly, H9N2 AIVs have become dominant in LBMs in China in recent years and donate internal genes for human isolates such as H7N9, H10N8 and H5N6. The first species barrier is host cell attachment. AIVs preferentially bind to SAα-2,3-Gal, whereas human-adapted viruses have been shown to favor SAα-2,6-Gal. These H10N3 strains presented affinities to both avian-type and human-type receptors. AIVs can transmit to new species, but without long-term adaptation in mammals, most AIVs show low pathogenicity in mice. In this study, the two novel reassortant H10N3 isolates were highly pathogenic in mice and replicated efficiently in multiple organs without prior adaptation. AIV acquires the ability for continuous transmission between humans was the key to a pandemic. This study showed that infected guinea pig models could shed high virus loads through the respiratory tract and could transmit the virus via both direct contact and aerosols.

This finding illustrates that the novel reassortant H10N3 isolates exhibited comparable binding affinity for both avian-type and human-type receptors and lethal infection of mice. Furthermore, it displayed efficient transmission via both direct contact and aerosolization in guinea pig models, suggesting that the novel reassortant H10N3 subtype AIV poses a high threat to public health.

“LPAIVs usually cause no explicit symptoms in poultry; thus, human outbreaks may occur when poultry infections go unnoticed. Therefore, continuous surveillance for the emergence and evolution of novel AIVs in poultry and evaluation of their potential threat to public health is necessary.” said Prof. Xiufan Liu, the corresponding author of this work.

 

This work was supported by grants from the National Key Research and Development Project of China: 2016YFD0500202-1; National Natural Science Foundation of China: 31772755; National Key Research and Development Project of China: 2016YFD0501601; Jiangsu Provincial Natural Science Fund for Excellent Young Scholars (BK20170068); Earmarked Fund For China Agriculture Research System: CARS-40; Open Project Program of Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Zoonosis: R1808; Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD).

 

See the article:

Liu, K., Ding, P., Pei, Y., Gao, R., Han, W., Zheng, H., Ji, Z., Cai, M., Gu, J., Li, X., et al. (2021). Emergence of a novel reassortant avian influenza virus (H10N3) in Eastern China with high pathogenicity and respiratory droplet transmissibility to mammals. Sci China Life Sci 64, https://doi.org/10.1007/s11427-020-1981-5.

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JOURNAL

Science China Life Sciences

DOI

10.1007/s11427-020-1981-5 

Permanent Twitter ban of extremist influencers can detoxify social media

Removing extremist public figures from social media reduces the spread of offensive ideas and toxicity

Peer-Reviewed Publication

RUTGERS UNIVERSITY

Banning right-wing extremists from social media can reduce the spread of anti-social ideas and conspiracy theories, according to Rutgers-led research.

The study, published in the journal Proceedings of the ACM on Human-Computer Interaction, examined what happens after individual influencers with large followings are banned from social media and no longer have a platform to promote their extreme views.

“Removing someone from a platform is an extreme step that should not be taken lightly,” said lead author Shagun Jhaver, an assistant professor in the Department of Library and Information Science at Rutgers-New Brunswick. “However, platforms have rules for appropriate behavior, and when a site member breaks those rules repeatedly, the platform needs to take action. The toxicity created by influencers and their supporters who promote offensive speech can also silence and harm vulnerable user groups, making it crucial for platforms to attend to such influencers’ activities.”

The study examined three extremist influencers banned on Twitter: Alex Jones, an American radio host and political extremist who gained notoriety for promoting conspiracy theories; Milo Yiannopoulos, a British political commentator who became known for ridiculing Islam, feminism and social justice; and Owen Benjamin, an American “alt-right” actor, comedian and political commentator who promoted anti-Semitic conspiracy theories and anti-LGBT views.

The researchers analyzed more than 49 million tweets referencing the banned influencers, tweets referencing their offensive ideas, and all tweets posted by their supporters six months before and after they were removed from the platform.

Once they were denied social media access, posts referencing each influencer declined by almost 92 percent. The number of existing users and new users specifically tweeting about each influencer also shrank significantly, by about 90 percent.

The bans also significantly reduced the overall posting activity and toxicity levels of supporters. On average, the number of tweets posted by supporters reduced by 12.59 percent and their toxicity declined by 5.84 percent. This suggests that de-platforming can improve the content quality on the platform.

Researchers say the study indicates that banning those with extremist views who are promoting conspiracy theories minimizes contentious conversations by their supporters. The data from the study will help social media platforms make more informed decisions about whether and when to implement bans, which has been on the rise as a moderation strategy.

“Many people continue to raise concerns about the financial benefits from advertising dollars tied to content that spreads misinformation or conducts harassment,” said Jhaver. “This is an opportunity for platforms to clarify their commitment to its users and de-platform when appropriate. Judiciously using this strategy will allow platforms to address the problem of online radicalization, a worthy goal to pursue even if it leads to short-term loss in advertising dollars.”

Future research is needed to examine the interactions between online speech, de-platforming and radicalization and to identify when it would be appropriate to ban users from social media sites.

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JOURNAL

Proceedings of the ACM on Human-Computer Interaction

DOI

10.1145/3479525 

SUBJECT OF RESEARCH

People

ARTICLE TITLE

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Deplatforming as a Moderation Strategy on Twitter