Into the 'plastisphere': Scientists comb Japan waters to study new eco threat

Tiny floating fragments from plastic packaging, synthetic clothing and fishing nets have proliferated over the past four decades, and are now found in every part of the world's oceans

 Charly TRIBALLEAU AFP

Issued on: 25/10/2021

Shimoda (Japan) (AFP)

Tiny floating fragments from plastic packaging, synthetic clothing and fishing nets have proliferated over the past four decades, and are now found in every part of the world's oceans -- even the deepest trench.

The planet's seafloor is littered with an estimated 14 million tonnes of microplastics, according to a study released last year, and scientists say more research on them is urgently needed, including their effect on ecosystems, the food chain and human health.

So a team of French and Japanese researchers is analysing samples from the archipelago's coastal waters to study how microplastics make their way into the sea, and how much seeps into the ocean floor.

They are also examining the so-called "plastisphere", where micro-organisms live among discarded plastic.

A team of French and Japanese researchers is analysing samples from the archipelago's coastal waters to study how microplastics make their way into the sea, and how much seeps into the ocean floor 

 Charly TRIBALLEAU AFP

"It's a new ecosystem that didn't exist before the 1970s. So we don't really know which types of microbes are associated with this plastic," Sylvain Agostini, scientific director of the Tara-Jambio project, told AFP.

Having left the funnel-shaped net nicknamed "the sock" to drift for 15 minutes near the surface, the crew hoisted it back on deck to inspect their catch.

"This blue stuff is microplastics, and that's polystyrene, I believe," Agostini said.

They have collected more than 200 samples since their study began in April 2020, all of which contain microplastics.

Jonathan Ramtahal, a student from Trinidad and Tobago taking part in the research, said the team aims to determine whether the bacteria they find is "harmful to the wider food chain".

"Is it something we should be worried about -- do they transport any vectors for diseases? The diversity of bacteria can give us an idea of how it changes in different environments," he said.

'Lead by example'

Other studies have shown that microplastics have infiltrated the planet's most remote regions, and France's Tara Ocean Foundation has previously researched them in the Mediterranean and large European rivers.

Now the foundation is in Japan, the second-biggest producer of plastic packaging waste per capita according to the United Nations.

A 2018 UN report named the United States as the biggest generator of plastic packaging waste per capita, with China the largest overall 

Charly TRIBALLEAU AFP

The Japanese government says its vast waste management scheme stops plastic from finding its way to the sea, and industry research shows 85 percent of plastic waste in Japan is recycled -- although much is burnt for energy, emitting carbon dioxide.

Keiji Nakajima, director of marine plastic pollution control at the environment ministry, said Japan's waters are also affected by the waste of its neighbours.

"Japan's streets and streams are cleaner than those of other countries," he said.

The nation sits "downstream of a major oceanic current that sweeps in plastic waste produced in Southeast Asia and China", Nakajima added.

A 2018 UN report named the United States as the biggest generator of plastic packaging waste per capita, with China the largest overall.

Agostini, an assistant professor at the University of Tsukuba northeast of Tokyo, said that while "there is some truth" in this explanation, it is not watertight.

When plastic waste is found at a river's estuary, or a secluded bay, it's clear that "it doesn't come from thousands of kilometres away", he said.

The Tara-Jambio project is unlikely to settle that debate when its findings are published in several years time, but Agostini argues that if even a small proportion of Japan's plastic waste seeps into the ocean, it is still an "enormous quantity".

Japan is taking small steps to reduce its reliance on plastic: in 2019, it set a target to recycle 100 percent of new plastic by 2035, and last year, stores began charging for plastic bags.

"Packaging habits are ingrained" in Japan, said Kazuo Inaba, head of the Japanese marine-station network Jambio, but he and the team say change is necessary.

"If developed countries don't lead by example, no one will do it," Agostini said.

© 2021 AFP

Drifting into trouble? The tiny ocean creatures with a global impact

Researchers use torpedo-like devices towed from boats to better understand the ocean by collecting some of its smallest inhabitants: plankton 

DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS AFP

Issued on: 25/10/2021 -

Plymouth (United Kingdom) (AFP)

But when scientist Clare Ostle opens it up and draws out the silk scrolls inside, she is looking for the telltale green glow from some of the most important creatures on Earth: plankton.

This is a Continuous Plankton Recorder, torpedo-like devices that for 90 years have been towed by merchant vessels and fishing boats on a vast network of routes.

They help researchers better understand the ocean by collecting some of its smallest inhabitants.

What they have seen is that as climate change heats the seas, plankton are on the move -- with potentially profound consequences for both ocean life and humans.

Plankton -- organisms carried on the tides -- are the foundation of the marine food web.

But they are also part of an intricately balanced system that helps keep us all alive.

As well as helping produce much of the oxygen we breathe, they are a crucial part of the global carbon cycle.

"The big thing that we're seeing is warming," Ostle, coordinator of the Pacific CPR Survey, tells AFP as she demonstrates the plankton recorder off the coast of Plymouth in Britain.

The CPR Survey has documented a decisive shift of plankton towards both the poles in recent decades, as ocean currents change and many marine animals head for cooler areas.

Plankton -- organisms carried on the tides -- are the foundation of the marine food web but also help produce much of the oxygen we breathe and are a crucial part of the global carbon cycle 

DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS AFP

Smaller warm water plankton are also replacing more nutritious cold water ones, often also with differing seasonal cycles, meaning the species that feed on them need to adapt or move too.

"The big worry is when change happens so quickly that the ecosystem can't recover," says Ostle, adding that dramatic temperature spikes can lead "whole fisheries to collapse".

With nearly half of humanity reliant on fish for some 20 percent of their animal protein, this could be devastating.
Biological pump

Plankton is a catch-all term from the Greek for "drifting" and encompasses everything from photosynthesising bacteria many times smaller than the width of a human hair, to jellyfish with long trailing tendrils.

There are two main types: phytoplankton, diverse plant-like cells commonly called algae; and zooplankton, animals like krill and the larvae of fish, crabs and other marine creatures.

Phytoplankton photosynthesise using the sun's rays to turn C02 into energy and oxygen.

In fact, scientists estimate the seas produce around half the oxygen on Earth, and that is mostly thanks to phytoplankton.

When they 'bloom' in vast numbers, plankton are visible from space, turning the water emerald or creating swirls of milky blue 

HO NASA/AFP/File

They are also crucial to the ocean's "biological carbon pump", which helps the sea lock away at least a quarter of C02 emitted by burning fossil fuels.

While trees store carbon in wood and leaves, phytoplankton store it in their bodies.

It passes through the food web, with phytoplankton consumed by zooplankton which, in turn, are eaten by creatures from birds to whales.

"Pretty much everything you can think of in the sea at some stage of its life cycle will eat plankton," says CPR Survey head David Johns.

When organic matter from dead plankton or their predators sinks to the ocean floor it takes carbon with it.

- 'Escalating impacts' -

But scientists warn that climate change has stressed the system, with ocean temperatures rising, fewer nutrients reaching the upper part of the ocean from the deep and increased levels of C02 acidifying seawater.

Climate change has "exposed ocean and coastal ecosystems to conditions that are unprecedented over centuries to millennia with consequences for ocean-dwelling plants and animals around the world," says the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in a leaked draft report on climate impacts, due to be published next year, which predicts "escalating impacts on marine life".

As climate change heats the seas, plankton are on the move -- with potentially profound consequences for both ocean life and humans, researchers have found 

DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS AFP

While phytoplankton are relatively resilient and will likely continue to shift territory as the seas warm, the IPCC expects that deteriorating conditions in the oceans will ultimately lead to an overall decline this century.

Average global phytoplankton biomass -- a measure of total weight or quantity -- is predicted to fall by around 1.8 to six percent, depending on the level of emissions.

But because of its outsized importance, even modest reductions can "amplify up the marine food web", eventually leading to reductions in marine life by roughly five to 17 percent.

Zooplankton -- animals like krill and the larvae of fish, crabs and other marine creatures -- are one of the two main types of plankton, a catch-all term from the Greek for 'drifting' 

DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS AFP

There could also be "changes in carbon cycling and carbon sequestration, as our plankton community changes" with smaller plankton potentially drawing down less C02, says plankton ecologist Abigail McQuatters-Gollop of Plymouth University.

As global leaders prepare to meet at a crucial UN summit on climate change, the issue is a stark example of how accelerating human impacts are destabilising intricate life-sustaining systems.
Thinking small

Tackling this is not as simple as planting trees, McQuatters-Gollop notes.

But fishing sustainably, reducing pollutants and curbing C02 emissions can all help improve ocean health.

In the past, she says conservation has focused on "the big things, the cute things, or the things that are directly worth money" -- like whales, turtles and cod.

But all rely on plankton.

While this "blindness" could be because they are microscopic, people can see plankton traces at the beach -- in foam on waves, or the nighttime twinkle of bioluminescence.

The runoff of nitrogen-rich fertilisers is blamed for creating harmful algae blooms, like the glutinous 'sea snot' off Turkey's coast this year 

 Yasin Akgul AFP/File

Or on the children's television show "SpongeBob SquarePants", whose character Plankton is "the most famous plankton out there", says McQuatters-Gollop.

And when they "bloom" in vast numbers, plankton are visible from space, turning the water a startling emerald, or creating Van Gogh swirls of milky blue, in seasonal displays critical for ocean life.

Like land plants, phytoplankton need nutrients like nitrates, phosphates and iron to grow.

But they can have too much of a good thing: The runoff of nitrogen-rich fertilisers is blamed for creating harmful algae blooms, like the glutinous "sea snot" off Turkey's coast this year.

These can poison marine life or choke oxygen out of the water and may be exacerbated by warming, warns the IPCC.

Harmful algae blooms can poison marine life or choke oxygen out of the water and may be exacerbated by warming, warns the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 

Yasin Akgul AFP/File

Meanwhile, research published in Nature last month found that iron carried in smoke from huge 2019 and 2020 wildfires in Australia sparked a giant swell of phytoplankton thousands of miles away, which could have sucked up substantial amounts of C02.

Blooms can be seeded by nutrients from sand storms or volcanic eruptions and it is these “natural processes” that have inspired David King, founder of the Centre for Climate Repair at Cambridge.

King supports a hotly-debated idea to "fertilise" plankton blooms by sprinkling iron on the surface.

The theory is that this would not only help suck up more C02, but lead to a surge of ocean life, including eventually helping to increase whale populations that have been devastated by hunting.

More whales equals more whale poo, which is full of the nutrients plankton need to bloom, and King hopes could restore a "wonderful circular economy" in the seas.

A pilot project will try the technique in an area of the Arabian Sea carefully sealed off in a "vast plastic bag", but King acknowledges that the idea raises fears of unintended consequences: "We certainly don't want to de-oxygenate the oceans and I'm pretty confident we won't."
Sea mysteries

Ocean organisms have been photosynthesising for billions of years -- long before land plants. But we still have much to learn about them.

It was only in the 1980s that scientists named the planktonic bacteria prochlorococcus, now thought to be the most abundant photosynthesiser on the planet.

Scientist Clare Ostle used Continuous Plankton Recorder ships' logs to show that 'macroplastics' like shopping bags were already in the seas in the 1960s 

DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS AFP

Some "drifters" it turns out can swim, while others are masters of communal living.

Take the partnership between corals and plankton -- it is so important that when it breaks due to warming the corals bleach.

Or Acantharea, a single cell shaped like a snowflake that can gather photosynthesising algae and manipulate them into an energy-generating "battery pack", says Johan Decelle, of the French research institute CNRS and the University of Grenoble Alpes.

They have been "overlooked" because they dissolve in the chemicals used by scientists to preserve samples.

To study plankton under a high-resolution electron microscope, Decelle used to collect samples at the French coast and drive for hours back to Grenoble with them in a special cool box.

But this year he worked with the European Molecular Biology Laboratory on a pioneering project bringing high-tech freezing virtually onto the beach.

This enables the study of these delicate organisms as close as possible to their natural environment.

By contrast, Continuous Plankton Recorders end up mashing their samples into "roadkill", says Ostle.

Continuous Plankton Recorders have helped collect decades of data used to look back to track climate changes 

DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS AFP

But the value of the survey, which began in 1931 to understand how plankton affected herring stocks, comes from decades of data.

Scientists have used it to look back to track climate changes and it played an important role in the recognition of microplastics.

Ostle used CPR ships' logs to show that "macroplastics" like shopping bags were already in the seas in the 1960s.

From the boat in Plymouth, the water appears calm as sunlight slides across its surface. But every drop is teeming with life.

"There's just a whole galaxy of things going on under there," Ostle says.

© 2021 AF

Climate scientists fear tipping points (maybe you should too)

Scientists fear the triggering of invisible climate tripwires known at tipping points NASA/Maria-Jose VINAS NASA/AFP/File

Issued on: 25/10/2021 

Paris (AFP)

The real disaster scenario begins with the triggering of invisible climate tripwires known as tipping points.

"Climate tipping points are a game-changing risk -- an existential threat -- and we need to do everything within our power to avoid them," said Tim Lenton, director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter.

What's a tipping point?

Anyone who has leaned back in a chair balancing on two legs knows there is a threshold beyond which you irrevocably crash to the floor.

That portal between two stable states -- in this case, an upright versus a fallen-over chair -- is a tipping point, and Earth's complex, interlocking climate system is full of them.

These temperature thresholds have potentially widespread impacts.

Tropical coral reefs are among the phenomena least resistant to global warming - 

Great Barriier Reef Marine Park/AFP/File

If temperatures rise enough to melt the ice sheets atop Greenland and West Antarctica, it could lift oceans more than a dozen metres (40 feet).

The Amazon tropical forest, upon which we depend to soak up carbon pollution, could turn into savannah.

Or shallow subsoil known as permafrost -- mostly in Siberia -- tenuously holding twice the amount of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere could see those harmful emissions seep into the air.

"We have seen a number of tipping points already in coral reefs and polar systems, and more are likely in the near term," the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said in a draft report on climate impacts, due out in February, obtained by AFP.

In most cases, reversing the changes set in motion would be beyond the grasp of humanity for many generations, if not millennia.
Why so scary?

One of the first scientists to unlock the secret of tipping points recalled suddenly understanding some 15 years ago why they were so ominous.

"It was an 'Oh Shit!' moment," Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, founding director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), told AFP in an interview.

"Planetary machinery -- the monsoon system, ocean circulation, the jet stream, the big ecosystems -- abounds with non-linear systems," he said, referring to the potential for abrupt, dramatic change.

"That means you have so many points of no return."

In Antarctica, more than half the ice shelves that prevent glaciers -- some larger in area than England and Scotland combined -- from sliding into the ocean and lifting sea levels are at risk of crumbling due to climate change.

Tipping points in Earth's climate systems AFP/File

"It is like uncorking a bottle, and we are uncorking them one by one," said Schellnhuber.

Earth-altering tipping points have different temperature thresholds. Scientists know these tripwires are there, but not exactly where they lie.

Even more unsettling is how easily our already belaboured efforts to eliminate carbon pollution could be overwhelmed by the changes we are setting in motion.

If thawing permafrost surrenders as much CO2 as humanity stops emitting, we find ourselves fighting a war on two fronts: on top of the struggle to slash our own emissions we'd have to cope with those generated by the planet itself.
How many are there?

Scientists count about 15 significant tipping points in the planet's climate system. Some are regional, others are global, all are interconnected.

Those least resistant to global warming and closest to a point of no return are tropical coral reefs, the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, alpine glaciers, Arctic summer sea ice and the Amazon forest.

Warming temperatures are threatening sea ice 

BJ KIRSCHHOFFER POLAR BEARS INTERNATIONAL/AFP/File

Parts of the climate system more resistant to rising temperatures include the global currents that redistribute heat through the oceans, the Arctic jet stream, the Indian monsoon, El Ninos in the Pacific, and desertification in the Sahel.

While permafrost probably doesn't have a single temperature tripwire, the IPCC estimates it will release tens of billions of tonnes of CO2 for every extra degree of global warming.

The last holdout would be East Antarctica's ice sheet, which holds 56 metres worth of sea-level rise.

- Why are we hearing about them now? -

The IPCC's most recent mega-report is the first to give tipping points more than a cursory mention.

"Abrupt responses and tipping points of the climate system... cannot be ruled out," the UN's climate science advisory body now warns.

Deforestation and climate change could turn the Amazon's tropical forests into savannah 

Mayke TOSCANO Mato Grosso State Communication Department/AFP/File

While scientists have long been aware of the danger that tipping points pose, part of the problem has been the inability of climate models -- which are built to track gradual, linear change -- to anticipate the timing or impact of abrupt shocks.

"Just because tipping points are challenging to predict doesn't mean they can be ignored," Lenton said.

What is the ripple effect?

A new wave of research is focusing on how sudden shifts triggered by tipping points ripple across the climate system, leading to possible chain reactions.

Accelerating melt-off from the Greenland ice sheet, for example, is almost certainly slowing down the conveyor belt of ocean currents known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

This, in turn, could push Earth's tropical rain belt southward and weaken the African and Asian monsoons, upon which hundreds of millions depend for rain-fed crops.

Current and projected extent of permafrost impact Kenan AUGEARD AFP/File

Scientists cannot rule out the possibility that the AMOC will stall altogether, as it has in the past. If this happened, European winters would become much harsher and sea levels in the North Atlantic basin could rise substantially.

There are dozens of other ways in which facets of the climate system are intertwined.
What is a 'hothouse Earth'?

Earth's past tells us that continuing greenhouse gas emissions "could tip the global climate into a permanent hot state," according to the recent IPCC report.

Think of it as the ultimate tipping point: "hothouse Earth".

The last time atmospheric concentrations of CO2 matched today's levels, some three million years ago, temperatures were at least 3C more and sea levels five-to-25 metres higher.

A combination of more carbon pollution and emissions from permafrost and dying forests "might set us on such a trajectory in little more than a century," said Jan Zalasiewicz, a palaeo-biology professor at the University of Leicester.

Johan Rockstrom, PIK director, said a 2C cap on warming was "not a social or economic choice, it is actually a planetary boundary".

"The moment that the Earth system flips over from being self-cooling -- which it still is -- to self-warming, that is the moment that we lose control," he told AFP.
What are economic risks?

Tipping points are not currently taken into account when assessing the economic risks associated with climate change -- but experts argue that they should be.

New York University economist Gernot Wagner earlier this year calculated the potential cost to society of major planetary tipping points.

Once Earth's potential for nasty surprises is taken into account, the dollar damage to health and the environment caused by each ton of CO2 emitted today -- known as the social cost of carbon -- would increase by at least a quarter, he found.

In other words, the greater the risk, the higher the cost.
Any silver linings?

But there is potential for positive change too.

Just like social momentum helped to spur rapid transitions -- the ending of slavery, the dismantling apartheid in South Africa, or the push to legalise gay marriage in the US, for example -- so it might be with climate change.

From electric vehicles and green investments, to a global youth movement led by Greta Thunberg, a crescendo of change has experts wondering whether the world is turning the corner on climate.

© 2021 AFP

Permafrost: a ticking carbon time bomb

In Sweden's far north, permafrost beneath the Stordalen mire is up to thousands of years old

 Jonathan NACKSTRAND AFP


Issued on: 25/10/2021 

Abisko (Sweden) (AFP)

Here in the Arctic in Sweden's far north, about 10 kilometres (six miles) east of the tiny town of Abisko, global warming is happening three times faster than in the rest of the world.

On the peatland, covered in tufts of grass and shrubs dotted with blue and orange berries and little white flowers, looms a moonlander-like pod hinting at this far-flung site's scientific significance.

Researchers are studying the frozen -- now shapeshifting -- earth below known as permafrost.

As Keith Larson walks between the experiments, the boardwalks purposefully set out in a grid across the peat sink into the puddles and ponds underneath and tiny bubbles appear.

The distinct odour it emits is from hydrogen sulfide, sometimes known as swamp gas. But what has scientists worried is another gas rising up with it: methane.

With average temperatures rising around the Arctic, the permafrost has started to thaw Jonathan NACKSTRAND AFP

Carbon stores, long locked in the permafrost, are now seeping out.

Between carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane, permafrost contains some 1,700 billion tonnes of organic carbon, almost twice the amount of carbon already present in the atmosphere.

Methane lingers in the atmosphere for only 12 years compared to centuries for CO2 but is about 25 times more potent as a greenhouse gas over a 100-year period.

Thawing permafrost is a carbon "time bomb", scientists have warned.
Vicious circle

In the 1970s, "when researchers first started showing up and investigating these habitats, these ponds didn't exist", says Larson, project coordinator for the Climate Impacts Research Centre at Umea University, based at the Abisko Scientific Research Station.

"The smell of the hydrogen sulfide, that's associated with the methane that's being released -- they wouldn't have smelled that to the extent we do today," adds Larson, who measures how deep the so-called active layer is by shoving a metal rod into the ground.

Researcher Keith Larson tracks the thawing of the permafrost which worries scientists because carbon stores, long locked in the permafrost, are now seeping out

 Jonathan NACKSTRAND AFP

Permafrost -- defined as soil that stays frozen year-round for at least two consecutive years -- lies under about a quarter of the land in the Northern Hemisphere.

In Abisko, the permafrost beneath the mire can be up to tens of metres thick, dating back thousands of years. In parts of Siberia, it can go down over a kilometre and be hundreds of thousands of years old.

With average temperatures rising around the Arctic, the permafrost has started to thaw.

As it does so, bacteria in the soil begin to decompose the biomass stored within. The process releases the greenhouse gases carbon dioxide and methane -- further accelerating climate change in a vicious circle.

A few minutes' drive away at the much smaller Storflaket mire, researcher Margareta Johansson has tracked the thawing permafrost since 2008 by measuring the active layer, the part of the soil that thaws in summer.

Vicious circle: as the permafrost thaws, bacteria in the soil begin to decompose the biomass stored within and the process releases greenhouse gases

 Jonathan NACKSTRAND AFP

"In this active layer, where measurements started in 1978, we have seen it become between seven and 13 centimetres (2.8 and 5 inches) thicker every decade," says Johansson, from Lund University's department of physical geography and ecosystem science.

"This freezer that has kept plants frozen for thousands of years has stored the carbon that then can be released as the active layer gets thicker," she adds.

- At a tipping point? -

By 2100, the permafrost could have significantly thawed if CO2 emissions are not reduced, experts on oceans and the cryosphere from the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) have warned.

The Arctic's average annual temperature rose by 3.1 degrees Celsius (37.6 degrees Fahrenheit) from 1971 to 2019, compared to 1C for the planet as a whole, the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme said in May.

So could the permafrost reach a tipping point? That is, a temperature threshold beyond which an ecosystem can tip into a new state and risk disturbing the global system.

The big issue with permafrost is that the thawing and accompanying carbon release will continue even if human emissions are cut 

Jonathan NACKSTRAND AFP

It's feared, for example, that the Amazon tropical forest could turn into a savannah or that the ice sheets atop Greenland and West Antarctica could melt entirely.

"If all the frozen carbon would be released, it would almost triple the concentration of carbon in the atmosphere," Gustaf Hugelius, from Stockholm University who specialises in the carbon cycles of permafrost, tells AFP.

"But that will never happen," he quickly adds. The thawing of the permafrost, he says, will not take place all at once, nor will all the carbon be released in a giant puff.

Rather, it will seep out over decades, even hundreds of years.

Permafrost Kenan AUGEARD AFP

The big issue with permafrost is that the thawing and accompanying carbon release will continue even if human emissions are cut.

"We have just begun activating a system that will react for a very long time," Hugelius says.

- Cracks in the ground -

In Abisko, a small lakeside town with traditional red brick and wooden buildings known as a popular spot for viewing the northern lights, telltale signs of thawing permafrost are there if you know where to look.

Tears in the ground have opened up and slumping soil is visible around the picturesque town. Rows of telephone poles are tilting because the ground has started to shift.

Signs of thawing permafrost, such as tears in the ground and slumping soil, have appeared around the small northern Swedish town of Abisko

 Jonathan NACKSTRAND AFP

In Alaska, where permafrost is found beneath nearly 85 percent of the land, thawing permafrost is causing roads to warp.

Cities in Siberia have seen buildings start to crack as the ground shifts. In Yakutsk, the world's largest city built on permafrost, some buildings have already had to be demolished.

The deterioration of permafrost affects water, sewage and oil pipes as well as buried chemical, biological and radioactive substances, Russia's environment ministry said in a report in 2019.

Last year, a fuel tank ruptured after its supports suddenly sank into the ground near the Siberian city of Norilsk, spilling 21,000 tonnes of diesel into nearby rivers.

Norilsk Nickel blamed thawing permafrost that had weakened the plant's foundation.

Across the Arctic, permafrost thaw could affect up to around two thirds of infrastructure by mid-century, according to a draft IPCC report, seen by AFP in June ahead of its scheduled release by the UN in February.

In Siberian cities, buildings have begun to crack as the ground shifts 

Mladen ANTONOV AFP/File

More than 1,200 settlements, 36,000 buildings and four million people would be affected, it said.

It can lead to other dramatic changes in the landscape too, such as trapping water to form new ponds or lakes, or opening up a new path for water drainage, leaving the area completely dry.

- Threatening Paris goals -

The planet-warming gases escaping from permafrost threaten the hard-won Paris climate goals, scientists have warned.

Countries that signed the 2015 treaty vowed to cap the rise in global temperatures at well below 2C -- 1.5C if possible -- compared to preindustrial levels.

To have a two-thirds chance of staying under the 1.5C cap, humanity cannot emit more than 400 billion tonnes of CO2, the IPCC recently concluded.

At current rates of emissions, our "carbon budget" would be exhausted within a decade.

Scientists warn that the planet-warming gases escaping from permafrost threaten the hard-won Paris climate goals

Hector RETAMAL AFP/File

But carbon budgets do "not fully account for" the wild card of a rapid discharge in greenhouse gases from natural sources in the Arctic, warned a study this year, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.

Many climate models currently don't take permafrost into account because it is difficult to project the net effects of the permafrost thawing, Hugelius says.

Emissions in some areas are offset by the "greening of the Arctic" as certain plants thrive in the warmer temperatures, he adds.

However, the latest IPCC report from August did raise the issue of melting permafrost and stated that "further warming will amplify permafrost thawing", he says.

Action taken now can still have a strong effect on the speed of the thaw, Larson stresses.

Many climate models currently don't take permafrost into account because it is difficult to project the net effects of the permafrost thawing, says Gustaf Hugelius, from Stockholm University who specialises in the carbon cycles of permafrost 

Jonathan NACKSTRAND AFP

Even if "we actually don't have control over the rate of thaw of the permafrost soils" that doesn't mean "we shouldn't turn off the fossil fuels and change how we live on this planet", he says.

Some changes driven by warming temperatures in the Arctic are already irreversible, he adds sadly.

Tradition slipping away

"Around here we've been reindeer herding for at least 1,000 years," says Tomas Kuhmunen, a member of the indigenous Sami community.

Wearing a peaked bobble hat in traditional blue, red and yellow, he is standing on top of Luossavaara mountain overlooking Kiruna, Sweden's northernmost town that has grown up around an iron mine.

Kuhmunen, 34, works with the Sami Parliament but is also a reindeer herder, a practice passed down the generations for as far back as he can trace his family records, which is until the 1600s.

Unlike in his ancestors' days, modern times have forced the grazing reindeer to negotiate roads, rail tracks, wind power plants and mines.

Today, they must also adapt to the warming climate.

Traditionally, the reindeer roam freely part of the year, with the cold weather in autumn quickly freezing the ground, which stayed frozen through the winter snowfalls.

"That creates a good ground for the reindeer to dig up the lichen," Kuhmunen says, explaining that they can smell lichen through as much as a metre of snow.

But changing weather patterns have affected the availability of food.

Unseasonably high temperatures cause the snow to thaw and freeze again when the cold returns, building up thicker layers of ice that prevent the reindeer from digging down through the snow.

The animals struggle to find enough to eat, forcing Kuhmunen to spread the herd out over a much larger area to find food.

That means he has to go tens of kilometres more to keep an eye on them, using a snowmobile rather than skis.

"In many instances down in the forest we are grazing what were our forefathers' 'Plan C' type of pastures," the bearded herder says.

According to Sweden's Sami Parliament, about 2,500 people depend on reindeer for their livelihood.

The changes facing herders are of concern to the UN's IPCC climate science advisory panel.

In Siberia "nomadic reindeer herding and cryosphere fishing livelihoods are vulnerable to permafrost thaw, which alters northern landscapes and lakes as well as rain-on-snow events... " its draft report said.

"These people are endemically adapting via key decisions to alter nomadic routes, pasture uses and seasonal land use."

When necessary, Kuhmunen puts out pellets in troughs for the reindeer to feed on.

"It's a way to have the reindeer survive, but it's not desirable" and it's not "economically sustainable", he insists.

It reflects a trend in Sweden, Norway and Finland, according to researchers from northern Sweden's Umea University.

But herders do not consider it "a long-term solution": feeding the reindeer directly is harmful for their health and behaviour -- reindeer become "too tame", threatening the traditional lifestyle, they noted last year.

- Shrinking -

On the south peak of the dramatic Kebnekaise massif, 70 km away, year after year Ninis Rosqvist is seeing the impact of a warming climate before her very eyes.

Nimble as a mountain goat, the 61-year-old glacial researcher expertly climbs up under a cloudless blue sky to place an antenna in the freshly-fallen snow to measure the altitude.

Before she gets her answer, she knows the glacier -- 150 km north of the Arctic Circle -- is smaller than the last time she was there.

The mountaintop glacier has shrunk by more than 20 metres (66 feet) since the 1970s.

The GPS shows she is 2,094.8 metres up.

Until two years ago, it was Sweden's highest peak.

"In the past 30 years, it's been melting more than previously, and in the last 10 years it's been even more," Rosqvist, a Stockholm University geography professor, says, adding that summers especially have been unusually warm with recurring heatwaves.

"We can see the effect of it because it's like: 'Wow (the glaciers) they're thin, they have melted so much'."

Most glaciers in Sweden are likely doomed, Rosqvist believes. Here, the loss won't have much of an impact since there is already enough freshwater from rain and snowmelt.

But it's a strong signal to the world.

In South America and around the Himalayas, people depend on the yearly meltwater from glaciers for drinking water and irrigation.

And in Greenland, the ice sheets hold enough water to raise global sea levels by up to seven metres.

For many researchers, an important lesson from the Arctic is that some of these systems are outside human control.

© 2021 AFP

Under growing pressure, Russian stand-ups vow to joke on

George Orwell writes that “every joke is a tiny revolution.”

Stand-up comedian Pavel Dedishchev says the situation in Russia is bad, "but either you get upset, or you improve your repertoire" 

Dimitar DILKOFF AFP

Issued on: 25/10/2021 
Moscow (AFP)

"I have seven coronavirus antibodies, they all know each other, it's like a family living inside me," he tells the audience of around 50 mostly young people.

"Of course, I know they are from the government. Vladimir Vladimirovich (Putin) gave us all seven antibodies before the election, right? Twelve to the security services!" he says to roaring laughter.

Dedishchev was making a sly reference to cash handouts that President Putin gave out before last month's parliamentary elections -- and that the security services often get special treatment in Russia.

During his 40-minute performance, the bearded 30-year-old joked about corruption, the powerful Russian Orthodox Church and the National Guard, a security force that has been at the forefront of suppressing protests.

Stand-up comedy is booming across Moscow and videos of sketches often get more than a million views on YouTube, with many Russians hungry for humour that is not tightly controlled, unlike the comedy that is shown on television.

After a year that saw Putin's main opponent Alexei Navalny jailed and a severe crackdown on independent media, comedians say they, too, are feeling the pressure.

A Belarusian-Azerbaijani comedian living in Moscow was arrested this summer and deported over a joke, and stand-ups told AFP they have recently spotted security agents at their gigs.

But many said they intend to carry on making jokes, and that their work resonates with so many Russians precisely because of the country's increasing lack of critical voices.

"Of course, the situation is bad. But either you get upset, or you improve your repertoire," Dedishchev said.
'Our most loyal audience'

In an interview before his performance, Dedishchev said Moscow's comedians began earlier this year seeing what they believe are security agents turning up to their shows.

"We all started noticing it. We know they come and film things," he said.

"We can't tell them to go away. So we accepted them as our most loyal audience," he joked.

The audience at a trendy Moscow bar laugh at a stand-up comedian -- with almost no political satire on TV, such venues allow a rare freedom 

Dimitar DILKOFF AFP

Because of Russia's many restrictive laws -- such as bans on offending religious beliefs and spreading so-called "gay propaganda" -- comedians often check with lawyers if their material could get them into trouble.

Tomas Gaysanov, a former producer of television comedies who now organises stand-up nights, said it has become a trend on social media to find old videos by comedians and threaten them.

He said comedians are most often targeted after jokes about nationalities.

"We are a former empire, this is still a sensitive issue," said Gaysanov, who is from the Caucasus republic of Ingushetia.

The deported Belarusian-Azerbaijani comedian, Idrak Mirzalizade, was accused of spreading hatred against Russians for a joke about how difficult it is to find an apartment in Moscow as a non-Slav.

Comedian Ariana Lolayeva recently posted a tearful apology after she received social media hate for a joke about an Ossetian pie -- a traditional cheesy dish in her native Caucasus region -- in a sketch last year.

Comedians have faced such a backlash in recent weeks that one of them -- Kirill Sietlov -- set up a channel on social media platform Telegram documenting it.

Dedishchev said the Russian authorities "want people to go let off some steam somewhere and not take to the barricades" 

Dimitar DILKOFF AFP

"I have something to write about every week," Sietlov said.

After a year in which authorities have "cleared the field" of independent media and places where Russians can talk in public "without censorship", he said there is a growing demand for stand-up and that is why it has become a target.
'Letting off steam'

While on television there is almost no political satire and no swearing, in Moscow's bars comedians can allow themselves more freedom.

"It's one of the few places left where you can say what you want," Sietlov said.

Vera Kotelnikova, one of a growing number of women stand-up artists in Russia, said she can still joke about most things when performing in cafes and bars.

"It's unlikely you will go to prison," she said, before quickly adding: "Though that's still an open question."

Vera Kotelnikova said she can still joke about most things when performing in cafes and bars

Kirill KUDRYAVTSEV AFP

In a male-dominated industry, the Siberian-born 26-year-old says she finds it harder to joke about weighty issues as a woman.

"Audiences have a less serious attitude towards women comedians, they are considered more stupid," she told AFP.

She called stand-up a "democratic genre" and said she hopes it will survive in Russia.

Comedians AFP spoke to expect authorities to continue putting pressure on them, but not to shut down stand-up altogether.

"They want people to go let off some steam somewhere and not take to the barricades," said Dedishchev.

On stage, Dedishchev impersonated a Moscow metro police officer trying to choose which of the many passengers not wearing a mask to fine. The officer settled on fining the few passengers who were smiling.

"If you want to smile in this country, wear a mask!"

© 2021 AFP

 According to the “superiority theory” of humor, laughing from a marginal sociopolitical position at a dominant power is liberating, empowering, and even subversive. It capitalizes on degradation and ridicule which symbolically reverses hierarchical divisions and strips the dominant discourse of its semblance of authority. 

Noёl Carroll, Humour: A Very Short Introduction (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2014).

Calls to ban guns on movie sets grow after Baldwin shooting

Issued on: 24/10/2021 

A petition to ban firearms on movie sets is growing after US actor Alec Baldwin fatally shot cinematographer Halyna Hutchins with a prop gun

 Sam Wasson GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA/AFP


Los Angeles (AFP)

A memorial service will be held Sunday for 42-year-old Hutchins, who was struck in the chest when Baldwin fired a prop gun during the filming of the low-budget Western "Rust." She died shortly after the incident Thursday in New Mexico.

Director Joel Souza, 48, who was crouching behind her as they lined up a shot, was wounded and hospitalized, then released.

Police are still investigating the shooting, which sparked intense speculation on social media about how such an accident could have occurred despite detailed and long-established gun safety protocols for film sets.

A petition on the website change.org calling for a ban on live firearms on film sets and better working conditions for crews had gathered more than 18,000 signatures by Sunday afternoon.

"There is no excuse for something like this to happen in the 21st century," says the text of the petition launched by Bandar Albuliwi, a screenwriter and director.

Dave Cortese, a Democrat elected to the California Senate, put out a statement on Saturday saying, "There is an urgent need to address alarming work abuses and safety violations occurring on the set of theatrical productions, including unnecessary high-risk conditions such as the use of live firearms."

Actor Alec Baldwin, pictured in April 2019, has spoken of his heartbreak after the on-set killing of cinematographer

 Halyna Hutchins Angela Weiss AFP/File

He said he intends to push a bill banning live ammunition on movie sets in California.

The hit Los Angeles police drama "The Rookie" decided the day after the shooting to ban all live ammunition from its set, effective immediately, according to industry publication The Hollywood Reporter.

But some industry professionals said the use of weapons on film was not the problem.

Movie armorer SL Huang, writing on Twitter, said she had worked on hundreds of film sets without incident, thanks to the stringent safety protocols and the built-in redundancies.

"A tragedy happening in *this particular* way defies everything I know about how we treat guns on film sets," she wrote.

"My colleagues and I have been trying to figure out how this could happen when following our basic safety procedures and we keep ending at a loss.

"Which implies... that very basic, very standard safety procedures may not have been followed. And that nobody shut the production down when they weren't."

Security stands guard at the Bonanza Creek Ranch in Santa Fe, New Mexico on October 22, 2021 after cinematographer Halyna Hutchins was shot dead 

Anne LEBRETON AFP

Baldwin, who has spoken of his heartbreak after the killing, is cooperating with the police investigation.

The probe has focused on the specialist in charge of the weapon and the assistant director who handed it to Baldwin, according to an affidavit seen by AFP.

© 2021 AFP

Washington, District of Cats: US capital first city to count its felines

This still image from video released by the DC Cat Count/Humane Rescue Alliance shows a cat photographed by a wildlife camera in Washington 

Handout DC Cat Count/Humane Rescue Alliance/AFP Photo


Issued on: 24/10/2021 

Washington (AFP)

As its front paws touch the ground, the whiskered creature looks up, eyes darting left. A wildlife camera clicks and captures the scene.

It's a cat — and the location isn't a remote rainforest, but the capital of the United States.

The photo is part of the DC Cat Count, a first of its kind, three-year effort by animal welfare advocates, conservationists and scientists to enumerate every Felis catus in Washington.

The team behind the study says it provides an accurate estimate of the size of the city's indoor, outdoor and shelter population.

It found there are about 200,000 cats in the District of Columbia, with about half of them living indoors only, said Tyler Flockhart, a conservation biologist and science lead on the DC Cat Count.

The other half is a group that includes owned cats with limited or unlimited access outdoors, stray cats, and roughly 3,000 to 4,000 feral cats who avoid interactions with humans, Flockhart said.

"I don't think that you can find another wild mammal — another wild carnivore — that occurs at that density anywhere in the world," he said, of cats and urban environments.

A cat  KITTEN is wrapped in a towel and held in the arms of a Humane Rescue Alliance (HRA) employee at an HRA animal shelter in Washington

 Bastien INZAURRALDE AFP Photo

"I think that this is really sort of an interesting idea that we can have so many cats in such a small location."
Consensus for a cat census

The study brought together groups that are often at odds over the impact that outdoor cats have on wildlife and landscape.

This still image from video released by the DC Cat Count/Humane Rescue Alliance shows a bobcat photographed by a wildlife camera in Washington

Handout DC Cat Count/Humane Rescue Alliance/AFP Photo

While conservationists worry that outdoor cats can decimate bird populations, animal advocates seek to ensure the welfare and safety of cats seeking to survive outside.

"What was really groundbreaking with the DC Cat Count was these organizations coming together," said Stephanie Shain, the chief operating officer of the Humane Rescue Alliance (HRA), which took part in the study.

They were driven by a common purpose "to really focus not on who is right or who has been right, but really focus on getting it right — finding out the information, analyzing the data," she added.

Shain said HRA recommends that cat owners keep their feline friends indoors only in order to keep them safe and avoid damaging wildlife.

"I was pleased to see how many people actually follow that advice," she said.

To count all the cats who call the seat of American power home, researchers surveyed more than 2,600 residents, analyzed animal shelter records, walked along specific routes in search of cats and set up wildlife cameras in more than 1,500 spots.

"This is probably the most thorough analysis of cats of any city in the world," Flockhart said.

He and other researchers continue to analyze the data collected since 2018 and the research has already led to several peer-reviewed scientific papers.

The DC Cat Count team also made an extensive toolkit available online with protocols and guidelines for organizations wishing to carry out their own cat census.

Besides cats, the camera traps also snapped pictures of numerous animals including squirrels, raccoons, foxes, deer — and even a bobcat.

"There's a huge diversity of wildlife in our cities," Flockhart said.

"We tend to think of it as humans-only, and it could be anything but the case. There are all types of wildlife, from rodents all the way up to large predators."

© 2021 AFP

Germany to increase controls as far-right activists target Polish border

German Interior Minister Horst Seehofer (pictured October 21, 2021) said that 800 police had already been deployed on the German-Polish border to help deal with a recent increase in migrants crossing into Germany from Belarus 

Ina Fassbender POOL/AFP/File

Issued on: 24/10/2021 
Berlin (AFP)

Horst Seehofer told the Bild am Sonntag newspaper that 800 police had already been deployed on the German-Polish border to help deal with a recent increase in migrants crossing into Germany from Belarus.

"If necessary, I am ready to reinforce this even more," he added.

Police on Sunday broke up around 50 activists from the radical far-right group "The Third Way" (Der III. Weg), which had called for its members to gather to take action against migrants seeking to cross the border from Poland.

During the operation, police seized pepper spray, a bayonet, a machete and batons.

A recent surge in people crossing illegally over the EU's eastern frontier with Belarus has placed major strains on member states.

Poland has proposed building a 350 million euro ($410 million) wall on its border with Belarus to keep migrants out.

Asked whether such border walls were necessary, Seehofer said: "It is legitimate for us to protect the external border in such a way that undetected border crossings are prevented."

According to figures from the German interior ministry, around 5,700 people have travelled over the border between Germany and Poland without an entry permit since the start of the year.

On Saturday, a suspected smuggler was taken into custody after 31 illegal migrants from Iraq were found in a van near the Polish border.

Seehofer wrote to his Polish counterpart Mariusz Kaminski last week to propose increasing joint patrols along the border with Poland in response to rising numbers of migrants.

People hold signs with slogans such as "No one is illegal" (pictured) as they take part in a protest in solidarity with migrants who have been pushed back at Poland's border with Belarus in Warsaw, October 17, 2021 

Wojtek RADWANSKI AFP/File

Kaminski responded that Poland would offer its "full support" for such measures.

However, Seehofer also said last week Germany had no plans to close the border with Poland, adding that such a move would also be "legally questionable".

The EU accuses the Belarusian authorities of flying migrants from the Middle East and Africa to Minsk and then sending them into the bloc on foot in retaliation for sanctions imposed over a crackdown on the opposition.

Earlier this month, officials from countries including Poland, Lithuania and Greece argued for barriers along EU borders to counter efforts to weaponise migration.

Brussels has so far shied away from funding border walls for members states, insisting that the current legal framework only allows it to use EU budget funds for "border management systems".

© 2021 AFP

Oil-reliant Saudi Arabia faces questions over 'net zero' pledge

Issued on: 24/10/2021 -

Saudi Aramco's Dhahran oil plants, pictured on February 11, 2018 -- the kingdom is the world's biggest oil exporter

 AHMAD EL ITANI Saudi Aramco/AFP/File

Dubai (AFP)

They questioned plans by the world's top oil exporter to raise its production capacity despite the pledge, and Greenpeace raised doubts over the timing of Saturday's announcement.

The watchdog accused Saudi Arabia, one of the world's biggest polluters, of trying to divert criticism at next week's COP26 climate-change summit in Glasgow.

With increasing global urgency to limit global warming, COP26 aims to set the world on a path to net zero by mid-century.

"We question the seriousness of this announcement, as it comes in parallel with plans for the kingdom to increase its oil production," Greenpeace MENA campaigns manager Ahmad El Droubi said in a statement.

Saudi state oil firm Aramco said this month it plans to increase production capacity from 12 million to 13 million barrels a day by 2027.

Riyadh's net zero pledge "seems to simply be a strategic move to alleviate political pressure ahead of COP26", El Droubi said.

For Ben Cahill, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the kingdom "will have to make a massive push on energy efficiency and decarbonising the power sector."

Saudi Arabia also said it would join a global effort to cut emissions of methane -- another planet-warming gas -- by 30 percent by 2030, while Aramco committed to being a carbon net zero enterprise by 2050.

The United Nations says more than 130 countries have set or are considering a target of reducing greenhouse gas emissions to net zero by mid-century, an objective it says is "imperative" to safeguard a liveable climate.

Carbon neutrality is a balance between emitting carbon and absorbing carbon from the atmosphere.

Saturday's Saudi pledge came after neighbouring United Arab Emirates, also one of the world's biggest oil exporters, said it was targeting carbon neutrality by 2050. Bahrain, which exports refined petroleum, made a promise similar to Saudi on Sunday.
Oil for water

Saudi Arabia, the largest crude producer in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, also draws heavily on oil and natural gas to meet its growing power demands and desalinate its water.

Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman delivers a speech during the opening ceremony of the Saudi Green Initiative forum on October 23, 2021, in the Saudi capital Riyadh 

Fayez Nureldine AFP/File

The sun-drenched desert kingdom, population 34 million, is estimated to belch about 600 million tonnes of carbon dioxide per year -- more than France (population 67 million) and slightly less than Germany (population 83 million).

Crown prince and de facto ruler Mohammed bin Salman, who made Saturday's announcement, in 2016 announced his Vision 2030 to end Saudi Arabia's addiction to oil by diversifying the economy through foreign investments, business opportunities and other measures.

But the wide-ranging initiative has been further complicated by the coronavirus and falling crude prices, and oil still makes up more than 70 percent of the kingdom's export value.

In its announcement on Saturday, Saudi Arabia also said it plans to invest in "new energy sources, including hydrogen".

However, hydrogen "maintains the status quo of dependency on fossil fuels", which are used in its production, said El Droubi. He urged the Saudis to "prioritise phasing out fossil fuels and replacing them with renewable energy".

Waiting for detail

In his announcement, the crown prince targeted reducing carbon emissions by 278 million tonnes annually by 2030, and said more than 450 million trees would be planted in the first phase of a plan to grow billions in the coming decades.

Aramco's goal of carbon neutrality by 2050 only includes emissions from its own operations. According to Bloomberg, more than 80 percent of the company's total emissions come from customers burning its fossil fuels.

The Saudi announcements were hailed by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the COP26 host.

He said the "landmark pledge to reach net zero emissions by 2060 is a major step forward".

COP26 president Alok Sharma also welcomed the news, adding: "I look forward to the detail."

"Direct crude burn in power generation will have to be phased out, and renewable energy will have to gradually displace gas," he told AFP.

© 2021 AFP

Stimulus Alert: Manchin Wants Child Tax Credit Earnings Limit at $60K — Is It a Realistic Threshold?

In 25 U.S. states, $60,000 annual income is not even enough to qualify for middle class as a family of four, according to another GOBankingRates study.

Dawn Allcot
Fri, October 22, 2021

MICHAEL REYNOLDS / EPA-EFE

Among cuts to President Joe Biden’s “Build Back Better” reconciliation plan is the enhanced monthly child tax credit. Right now, it looks like the CTC will only be extended for another year, instead of the four years originally proposed. In addition, Senator Joe Manchin (D-WV) is proposing an income cap of $60,000 per year for families eligible to receive the enhanced credit. This would mean that more than 37 million children across the country would lose access to the credit, which currently offers $300 per month to qualifying children under 6 years old and $250 per month for children ages 6 and up.

Child Tax Credit in Danger: Planned Payments Could Be Reduced by 4 Years If Budget Battle Divides Democrats

Earlier this year, the CTC was increased from a total of $2,000 per child to $3,000 per child 6 and up and $3,600 per child under 6, with half the amount offered as an advance. Economists say that if it were extended through 2025, the enhanced CTC could reduce the child poverty rate from 14.2% to 8.4%, according to a recent report from the Urban Institute. That would mean nearly 40% fewer children across the U.S. living in poverty.

Manchin’s upper income limit of $60,000 to receive the credit, however, does not take into account families of varying sizes or the higher costs of living in many cities and regions. In all but 12 of GOBankingRates’ study of 50 major cities, homeowners and renters alike needed more than $60,000 to “live comfortably.” The study addressed individuals, not families, which means the money needed to live with children in these metro areas would exceed the income for a single person, or even a couple.

Social Security FYI: Will Stimulus Payments and Child Tax Credit Affect Your Benefits?

When you look at the median income in these cities, 38 fall under Manchin’s $60,000 threshold. However, that’s just the median, which could leave close to 50% of all families potentially exceeding that $60,000 income mark — but still not reaching the income level to live comfortably with kids.

Take the city of Charlotte, North Carolina, which has a median income of $58,202, just under Manchin’s “magic number” of $60,000, as an example. To live comfortably as a homeowner, you’d need to earn at least $80,071, while renters need $82,999.

Related: Which States Received The Most Child Tax Credit Money To Date?

GOBankingRates used the 50/30/20 metric to define “living comfortably” in these cities, which means that 50% of your income goes toward necessities, leaving 20% for savings and investments and 30% for splurges and fun.

Even in cities where salaries skew higher, more than 50% of people are barely “making it” financially. ” Austin’s median income of $63,717 for individuals exceeds Manchin’s upper limit for the child tax credit, yet homeowners need $98,007 to live comfortably in the up-and-coming tech hub, while renters can get by on $94,455.

Stimulus Alert: Is the Future of the Child Tax Credit in Danger of Massive Reduction?

Stimulus Errors: Was Your Child Tax Credit Check Smaller Than Usual? Here’s What’s Going On

In 25 U.S. states, $60,000 annual income is not even enough to qualify for middle class as a family of four, according to another GOBankingRates study. By reducing the upper income limits for the CTC, Manchin’s proposal does not take into account the cost of living in different areas, different size families or the amount of money it actually takes to avoid poverty in the U.S. today.