What Biden is keeping secret in the JFK files

The censored files may offer insights into Cold War covert ops, but don't expect a smoking gun about the assassination.


Part of a file from the CIA released by the National Archives in 2017, dated Oct. 10, 1963, details "a reliable and sensitive source in Mexico" report of Lee Harvey Oswald's contact with the Soviet Union embassy in Mexico City. | Jon Elswick/AP Photo


By BRYAN BENDER

POLITICO
10/24/2021 

President Joe Biden has once again delayed the public release of thousands of government secrets that might shed light on the 1963 assassination of President John F. Kennedy.

“Temporary continued postponement is necessary to protect against identifiable harm to the military defense, intelligence operations, law enforcement, or the conduct of foreign relations that is of such gravity that it outweighs the public interest in immediate disclosure,” Biden wrote in a presidential memorandum late Friday.

He also said that the National Archives and Records Administration, the custodian of the records, needs more time to conduct a declassification review due to delays caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

The decision, which follows a delay ordered by President Donald Trump in 2017, means scholars and the public will have to wait even longer to see what remains buried in government archives about one of the greatest political mysteries of the 20th century. And the review process for the remaining documents means Biden can hold the release further if the CIA or other agencies can convince him they reveal sensitive sources or methods.

Public opinion polls have long indicated most Americans do not believe the official conclusion by the Warren Commission that the assassination was the work of a single gunman, Lee Harvey Oswald, a former Marine who once defected to the Soviet Union and who was shot to death by a nightclub owner Jack Ruby while in police custody.

A special House committee in 1978 concluded “on the basis of the evidence available to it, that President John F. Kennedy was probably assassinated as a result of a conspiracy.”

But longtime researchers almost uniformly agree that what is still being shielded from public view won’t blow open the case.

“Do I believe the CIA has a file that shows former CIA Director Allen Dulles presided over the assassination? No. But I’m afraid there are people who will believe things like that no matter what is in the files,” said David Kaiser, a former history professor at the Naval War College and author of “The Road to Dallas.”

His book argued that Kennedy’s murder cannot be fully understood without also studying two major U.S. intelligence and law enforcement campaigns of the era: Attorney General Robert Kennedy’s war on organized crime and the CIA’s failed efforts to kill communist dictator Fidel Castro in Cuba (with the Mafia’s help).

Still, Kaiser and other experts believe national security agencies are still hiding information that shows how officials actively stonewalled a full accounting by Congress and the courts and might illuminate shadowy spy world figures who could have been involved in a plot to kill the president.
What’s still hidden?

Portions of more than 15,000 records that have been released remain blacked out, in some cases a single word but in others nearly the entire document, according to the National Archives.

The records were collected by the Assassination Records Review Board, which was established by Congress in the 1992 JFK Records Act.

The independent body, which folded in 1998, was headed by a federal judge and empowered to collect classified information from across the government that might have bearing on Kennedy’s murder and make public as much as possible after consulting with the agencies where the intelligence originated. It also had legal authority to overrule recalcitrant agencies.

A large portion of the JFK collection came from the probe by the House Select Committee on Assassinations in 1978, which investigated the murders of President Kennedy and the 1968 assassination of Martin Luther King Jr. The panel also delved into a series of U.S. intelligence and law enforcement activities in the early decades of the Cold War as part of its probe.

The creation of the review board ultimately led to the release of thousands of files. But the board also postponed the release of other documents until 2017, when Trump used his authority to further delay full public disclosure.

Much of what has yet to be released involves intelligence activities during the height of the Cold War that likely had no direct bearing on the plot to kill Kennedy but could shed light on covert operations.

One heavily censored file involves a CIA plot to kill Castro. Another is a 1963 Pentagon plan for an “engineered provocation” that could be blamed on Castro as a pretext for toppling him. Then there’s a history of the CIA’s Miami office, which organized a propaganda campaign against Castro’s Cuba.

Other redacted files are believed to contain new CIA information about the 1972 break-in at the Democratic National Committee in Washington’s Watergate Hotel by former CIA operatives that led to the resignation of President Richard Nixon.

But some could reveal more about the events leading up to the assassination itself.

Researchers are keenly interested in the personnel file of the late George Joannides, a career CIA intelligence operative who staffers on the House investigation in the late 1970s believe lied to Congress about what he knew about a CIA-backed exile group that had ties to Oswald.

A federal appeals court in 2018 upheld the CIA’s rejection of a lawsuit by researcher Jefferson Morley to obtain the file.

Paraded before newsmen after his arrest, Lee Harvey Oswald on Nov. 23, 1963, tells reporters that he did not shoot President John F. Kennedy. | AP Photo

Another partially released file contains information about how the CIA may have monitored Oswald on a trip he purportedly took to Mexico City ahead of the assassination.

The files could reveal more of “what the CIA was doing in New Orleans, some more info about Mexico City and likely even some revelations about the CIA role in Watergate,” said Larry Schnapf, a lawyer and assassination researcher.

Morley, who has filed multiple lawsuits to force disclosure, believes the CIA is covering up for individuals who may have had a role in Kennedy’s death or knew who was responsible and wanted it hidden from the public to protect the agency.

He says the CIA’s refusal to comply “can only be interpreted as evidence of bad faith, malicious intent, and obstruction of Congress.”

A spokesperson for the CIA, which accounts for the majority of the withheld records, declined to address the charge, saying only that the agency will comply with the law and the president’s directive.
When will the secret files be revealed?

Biden did set in motion the release of some of the remaining records.

“Any information currently withheld from public disclosure that agencies have not proposed for continued postponement shall be reviewed by NARA before December 15, 2021, and shall be publicly released on that date,” the memo states.

He also directed that the National Archives conduct an “intensive review” over the next year “of each remaining redaction to ensure that the United States Government maximizes transparency, disclosing all information in records concerning the assassination, except when the strongest possible reasons counsel.”

But that means the CIA and other agencies can still convince Biden to further delay the release of some documents.

A coalition of legal experts and academics asserts that Trump and now Biden have been flouting the 1992 law that set up the disclosure process.

They contend in a legal memo the legislation laid out a “stringent process and legal standard for postponing the release of a record” that requires the president to certify why any single file is being withheld.

“Congress established a short-list of specific reasons that federal agencies could cite as a basis for requesting postponement of public disclosure of assassination records,” they advised Biden last month. “A government office seeking postponement was required to specify, for each record sought to be postponed, the applicable grounds for postponement.”

Schnapf plans to file a lawsuit on Monday seeking copies of the underlying communications that have led to the decision by successive presidents to postpone the release of so many documents

.

WHITE HOUSE
‘An outrage against democracy’: JFK's nephews urge Biden to reveal assassination records
BY MARC CAPUTO

The Public Interest Declassification Board, a bipartisan advisory panel appointed by the president and leaders of Congress, appealed to Biden last month to limit further postponement to the “absolute minimum,” noting that “we understand that agencies are asking you to extend the postponement of public disclosure for parts of many records subject to the JFK Act.”


The board said it believes disclosure after all these years would “bolster the American people’s confidence and trust in their government.”

The board’s chair, Ezra Cohen, the former acting undersecretary of defense for intelligence, called the Biden memo “a step in the right direction” but “we will know more regarding agency and Archives implementation come December.”

“In the short term,” he added, “the Archivist will need to work hard to keep agencies on track with the President’s guidance.”

Schnapf said Congress may have to step in if military and intelligence agencies keep delaying full disclosure.

He pointed out that with the expiration of the JFK records review board, there is no authority other than Biden who can overcome the “kind of stalling, delaying and excessive secrecy that led to the enactment of the JFK Act in the first place.”

“Trump gave the agencies three and a half years … and yet full disclosure has not been obtained,” he added. “This is not about conspiracy but about compliance with the law. There is widespread bipartisan support to have the rest of the records released. These records will reveal important secrets about our country’s history. When President Biden agreed to release the 9/11 records, he said 20 years is long enough. How about 58 years?”

US DEPORTS HAITIANS BACK TO THIS
Beleaguered Haiti capital brought to brink by fuel shortages


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A man balances his motorbike tank on his head as he waits outside a gas station in hopes of filling his tank, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, Saturday, Oct. 23, 2021. The ongoing fuel shortage has worsened, with demonstrators blocking roads and burning tires in Haiti's capital to decry the severe shortage and a spike in insecurity. 

(AP Photo/Matias Delacroix)


PORT-AU-PRINCE, Haiti (AP) — Haiti’s capital has been brought to the brink of exhaustion by fuel shortages, after staggering along despite an earthquake, the assassination of the president, gang violence and mass kidnappings.

More than two weeks of fuel deliveries interrupted by gang blockades and abductions of fuel truck drivers have driven residents of Port-au-Prince to a desperate search for gasoline and diesel. The fuels are widely used to run generators needed to compensate for the country’s unreliable electrical system.

The city’s main fuel terminals are located in or near gang-dominated neighborhoods like Martissant, La Saline and Cite Soliel, and some gangs have reportedly been demanding extortion payments to allow fuel trucks through.

The gangs have become a powerful force in Haiti. One of the gangs recently kidnapped 17 members of a U.S.-based missionary group and reportedly demanded a ransom of $1 million each for their release, warning that the hostages will be killed if their demands aren’t met. There is no word yet on their fate.

The gangs have also kidnapped hundreds of Haitians, and the government appears unable, or unwilling, to take them on.

Protests broke out Saturday in the Delmas neighborhood, where gas stations have run out of fuel. Police arrived and dispersed the crowds with warning shots of what appeared to be live rounds.

Some of the country’s cellphone networks suffered service declines as fuel to run cell tower equipment ran short.

Officials at the Saint Damien hospital, the capital’s foremost pediatrics center, said it had only three days of fuel left to run generators that power ventilators and medical equipment. The hospital can run partly on solar power, but that doesn’t provide enough electricity for all its needs.

Denso Gay, the hospital’s project manager, said Saint Damien is treating two patients with COVID-19 and also handles urgent surgeries, like C-sections.

“I am very worried,” Gay said. “The situation is very critical.”

“The oxygen is running on electricity. If we don’t have electricity to run the oxygen and the (medical) apparatus, we will need to close” to new patients, he said.

Gay estimates the approximately 1,500 gallons of fuel left in the hospital’s reserve tanks would last only for about three more days.

The hospital normally gets deliveries of about 3,000 gallons of fuel twice a month.

“We contacted the company, and they said they cannot deliver, they cannot come across town because of the danger to the drivers,” Gay said.

The United Nations Children’s Fund warned Sunday that “hundreds of women and children who seek emergency care in health facilities are at risk of dying if solutions are not found to the fuel shortage prevailing in Haiti for weeks due to insecurity.”

It said several hospitals across the country have sent pleas for help directly to UNICEF and its partners.

“With the insecurity prevailing in Port-au-Prince, the lives of many child-bearing women and newborn babies are in danger because hospitals that should give them life-saving care cannot operate normally due lack of fuel. They risk dying if health services cannot give them adequate care,” said Raoul de Torcy, UNICEF Deputy Representative.

UNICEF said it had secured a contract with a local provider to supply hospitals in and around Port-au-Prince with 10,000 gallons of fuel. “But due to insecurity, the provider eventually declared he could transport fuel neither in the Haitian capital, nor in other provinces ... because many truck drivers no longer accept to ply the roads crossing gang-controlled areas for fear of being kidnapped and their truck hijacked.”

Meanwhile, capital residents were on a desperate chase to get fuel. Many gas stations remain closed for days at a time, and the lack of fuel is so dire that the CEO of Digicel Haiti announced last week that 150 of its 1,500 branches countrywide were out of diesel.

On Thursday, hundreds of demonstrators blocked roads and burned tires in Port-au-Prince to protest the severe fuel shortage and a spike in insecurity.

Alexandre Simon, an English and French teacher, said he and others were protesting because of the dire conditions facing Haitians.

“There are a lot of people who cannot eat,” he said. “There is no work ... There are a lot of things we don’t have.”

Proposed mine tests UK climate efforts ahead of UN meeting
By JO KEARNEY and JILL LAWLESS

PHOTOS 1 of 16

Members of the public walks their dogs by the former pithead at Haig Colliery Mining Museum close to the site of a proposed new coal mine near the Cumbrian town of Whitehaven in north-west England, Monday, Oct. 4, 2021. A proposal to dig a new coal mine here is dividing the British government just as it prepares to host a major climate conference. West Cumbria Mining wants to build Britain's first deep coal mine in three decades to extract coking coal, which is used to make steel. The coal would be processed in Whitehaven, 340 miles (550 kilometers) northwest of London. But environmentalists are horrified by the idea. (AP Photo/Jon Super)


WHITEHAVEN, England (AP) — In the patchwork of hills, lakes and sea that makes up England’s northwest corner, most people see beauty. Dave Cradduck sees broken dreams.

The coal mine where Cradduck once worked has long closed. The chemical factory that employed thousands is gone. The nuclear power plant is being decommissioned.

For the 74-year-old Cradduck, a plan for a new coal mine that could bring hundreds of jobs is cause for hope.

But environmentalists view it with horror. They say it sends a disastrous message as the United Kingdom welcomes world leaders, advocates, diplomats and scientists to Glasgow, Scotland, for a United Nations climate conference that starts Oct. 31. The two-week COP26 meeting is considered a last chance to nail down carbon-cutting promises that can keep global warming within manageable limits.

“The U.K. sets itself out as a leader, but it’s building a coal mine, which is the most polluting thing that you can do,” said Rebecca Willis, professor of energy and climate governance at Lancaster University. “It sends a signal to the rest of the world that the U.K. isn’t actually serious.”

A statue entitled 'End of an Era' paying homage to the region's mining industry stands close to the Cumbrian town of Whitehaven near the site of a proposed new coal mine in northwest England, Monday, Oct. 4, 2021. (AP Photo/Jon Super)

But Cradduck sees the mine as a sign that “at least someone’s interested in the area.” He says it “will provide jobs for people who have got mining in their blood.”

The proposed new mine symbolizes the dilemma facing the British government: It aims to generate all of the U.K.’s electricity from clean energy sources by 2035, and to reach net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. But Conservative Prime Minister Boris Johnson has also pledged to boost prosperity in England’s neglected north with new factories, roads, railways and other infrastructure that environmentalists say is at odds with the government’s green agenda.

West Cumbria Mining, the company hoping to build Britain’s first deep coal mine in three decades, wants to extract coking coal — a type used to make steel rather than for fuel — from under the Irish Sea. It plans to process the coal on the site of a shuttered chemical plant in Whitehaven, 340 miles (550 kilometers) northwest of London.

The company says this is a new kind of mine, far removed from the dirty, dangerous behemoths whose brick and steel skeletons dot the region’s landscape. Designs show curved modern buildings that blend in with the surrounding hills, and the company says it will be the world’s first net-zero coal mine, with all of its carbon emissions reduced or offset by credits to the Gold Standard Foundation, an environmental organization.

Alexander Greaves, a lawyer for the mining company, said while opening a new coal mine might look bad at first glance, this project aims to be different.

“Showing these mines can be made by law … to capture greenhouse gas emissions and required to offset any residual impact … is true environmental leadership,” he said.

   

NOTE THE WIND TURBINES IN THE BACKGROUND

A view of part of the town of Whitehaven in Cumbria near the site of a proposed new coal mine in northwest England, Monday, Oct. 4, 2021. A proposal to dig a new coal mine here is dividing the British government just as it prepares to host a major climate conference. West Cumbria Mining wants to build Britain's first deep coal mine in three decades to extract coking coal, which is used to make steel. The coal would be processed in Whitehaven, 340 miles (550 kilometers) northwest of London. But environmentalists are horrified by the idea. (AP Photo/Jon Super)

Environmentalists scoff at that idea.

“It’s blindingly obvious that the quickest way to stop these carbon emissions and to make radical changes — which we have to do in the next 10 years — is to stop opening any new coal mines,” said Maggie Mason, a local opponent of the mine. “The same is true for oil wells and gas wells.”

Nature and industry have long vied for supremacy in this part of England. Whitehaven sits on the edge of the Lake District National Park, an area whose beauty inspired William Wordsworth and Beatrix Potter. But the area once was home to industries that offered hard, dirty jobs in factories and mines. Now, though, wind turbines spin beside the sea — a sign of Britain’s transition from fossil fuels to renewable energy, which last year produced almost half of the country’s electricity.

That share shrank this year — partly due to a lack of wind — and with the cost of imported natural gas soaring and plans for new nuclear plants moving at a crawl, the U.K. government is still considering new fossil-fuel projects.

Elsewhere, there’s the Cambo oilfield in the North Atlantic, west of the Shetland islands, where Shell and Siccar Point Energy plan to extract 170 million barrels of oil. Environmental groups are trying to force the British government to stop the drilling, but Johnson’s administration is reluctant to intervene, saying “sources like Cambo are still required” to meet Britain’s energy needs as it shifts to a low-carbon economy.

“We need to transition our existing oil and gas sector to a decarbonized platform,” Business Secretary Kwasi Kwarteng said last month in the House of Commons, accusing Cambo opponents of wanting “a complete eclipse” of the oil and gas industries “with 250,000 jobs vanishing overnight.”

A tunnel entrance at the site of a proposed new coal mine near the Cumbrian town of Whitehaven in northwest England, Monday, Oct. 4, 2021. (AP Photo/Jon Super)

In West Cumbria, the local authority approved the mine a year ago. The area’s Conservative mayor, Mike Starkie, says it will be “transformational.”

The British government, under pressure from opponents and its own environmental commitments, intervened in March and ordered an inquiry by a planning inspector. He says he will make a recommendation around the end of the year. Then the U.K. government will make a final decision — well after COP26 has ended.

Local supporters of the mine believe they are the silent majority, at risk of being drowned out by environmental activists. Some rallied at the site this month, holding signs that read “Part of the answer, not part of the problem” and “Cumbria coke is the real thing.”

“It’s been very simplified in the press that it’s jobs against the climate,” said John Greasley, who helps run a Facebook page in support of the mine. “And, of course, the climate is going to win every time. But it’s deeper than that.”

___

Lawless reported from London.

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Follow AP’s climate coverage at http://apnews.com/hub/climate

UPDATE
16 evacuated from burning shipping vessel off Canada's coast

Ten containers on a shipping vessel caught fire off the coast of Canada on Saturday. 

Photo courtesy of Canadian Coast Guard/Twitter

Oct. 25 (UPI) -- First responders over the weekend evacuated 16 people from a container ship that caught fire off the coast of British Columbia, Canadian authorities said.

Ten containers on the vessel burst into flames about 5 miles off the coast of Victoria and 17 miles north of the U.S.-Canada border on Saturday morning, prompting an evacuation of the Zim Kingston by local and federal agencies, the Canadian Coast Guard said in a statement, adding that the evacuated crew were met at Ogden Point by immigration, healthcare and police officials.

No injuries were reported.

The U.S. Coast Guard said in a statement the situation began mid-day Friday when its Puget Sound sector received a notification that the shipping vessel had lost 40 containers overboard after heeling 35 degrees in heavy swells about 38 miles west of the Strait of Juan de Fuca.

Canadian authorities said the fire was believed to have been mostly extinguished by Sunday. Photo courtesy of Canadian Coast Guard/Twitter

Shortly after 11 a.m. Saturday, Canadian officials noticed a fire within its containers.

Fire fighting activity continued overnight and through Sunday when authorities said it had finally been "stabilized."

"Depending on weather tomorrow, hazardous materials firefighters will board the ship to fight any remaining fires and ensure the fire is out," the coast guard tweeted.

Amid the fire fighting operations, a 2-mile emergency zone was established around the vessel, which is owned by Greece-based Danaos Shipping Co.,

Overnight Saturday, tug boats sprayed the hull with cold water as chemicals onboard prevented dousing the fire directly with water.

Due to hazardous chemicals in the fire, authorities were unable to douse the flames directly and used water to keep adjacent containers cool. Photo courtesy of Canadian Coast Guard/Twitter

Smoke from the fire was being tracked from air quality monitoring stations around the Greater Victoria area, the Canadian Coast Guard said.

During a press conference Sunday, JJ Brickett, the Canadian coast guard's federal incident commander, told reporters that the majority of the fire has been extinguished and it was "smoldering."

"Presumably, everything that was inside those containers has been consumed by the fire," he said.

He explained the plan was to let the containers be consumed by the fire while keeping those around it cool with there being no signs of charring of scaring detected on them.

"That's a really good sign," he said.

U.S. authorities said 35 of the overboard containers have been found with Canadian authorities adding that of those missing two contain hazardous materials and both agencies are warning that they "pose a significant risk to mariners."

"One of the objectives of the response is 100% accountability for all of these containers: where they are, what happened to them, what was in them and to the extent that we can, how can we recover them," Brickett said.

Into Monday morning, two vessels monitored the situation as five crew members remained onboard to fight the fire.

Fire on cargo ship off British Columbia coast reported out



Ships work to control a fire onboard the MV Zim Kingston about 8 kilometers (5 miles) from the shore in Victoria, British Columbia, Canaeda, on Sunday, Oct. 24, 2021. The container ship caught fire on Saturday and 16 crew members were evacuated and brought to Ogden Point Pier. 

(Chad Hipolito/The Canadian Press via AP)

VANCOUVER, British Columbia (AP) — Canadian Coast Guard officials said Sunday a fire that was burning in several containers aboard a cargo ship off the coast of British Columbia appeared to be out.

The Coast Guard said it received word late Saturday morning that a fire had broken out in 10 damaged containers aboard the MV Zim Kingston, which is now anchored about five miles off the provincial capital of Victoria, and that two of the burning containers held hazardous material identified as potassium amylxanthate.

“The majority of the fire is actually out,” JJ Brickett, federal incident commander with the Canadian Coast Guard, said during a teleconference Sunday. “We still see it smoldering.”

The Coast Guard said the hazardous material inside the containers prevented the ship’s crew from spraying cold water directly on the fire. An emergency zone had been doubled to two nautical miles around the Zim Kingston.

Brickett said it was “a really good sign” that there was no indication of scorching or charring on adjacent containers.

“Presumably everything that was inside those containers has been consumed by the fire,” he said. “The fire is smoldering and we’re continuing to cool on either side.”

The Joint Rescue and Coordination Centre in Victoria said 16 crewmembers were safely taken off the ship, while five others, including the captain, remained on board at their own behest.

Ships work to control a fire onboard the MV Zim Kingston about eight kilometres from the shore in Victoria, B.C., on Sunday, October 24, 2021. The container ship caught fire on Saturday and 16 crew members were evacuated and brought to Ogden Point Pier. 

THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chad Hipolito/The Canadian Press via AP)

The coast guard said a hazardous materials crew from Vancouver was mobilizing and the owner of the Zim Kingston had contracted the U.S.-based Resolve Marine Group for salvage operations, including firefighting and recovery of the containers.

Danaos Shipping Co. which manages the container ship, said in an emailed statement earlier: “No injuries were reported. The fire appears to have been contained.”

Brickett said the U.S. Coast Guard had dispatched a tracking buoy to monitor 40 containers that fell overboard from the Zim Kingston in choppy waters Friday. The containers were about 27 nautical miles off the west coast of Vancouver Island on Sunday.


Authorities fought the fire overnight Saturday and into Sunday. Photo courtesy of Canadian Coast Guard/Twitter

Two of those containers held “materials we would be concerned about,” Brickett said, but added that “none of our trajectories right now have any of those containers grounding.”

Efforts to retrieve the containers would not be able to start until after a break in a storm that was forecast to worsen until Monday, authorities said.

Brickett said the ship’s owners had “been very responsible” and acted properly in hiring the proper resources. It was too early to say what caused the fire or if it was related to the containers falling overboard, he said.

“Our first priority is to stabilize the scene, put the flames out,” he said.

A total of 40 boxes fell overboard off the ship on Friday after heeling some 35 degrees in heavy swells. Photo courtesy of U.S. Coast Guard/Twitter

PARANOIA

Scientists uncover a psychological factor that explains support for QAnon better than political ideology

by Eric W. Dolan
October 16, 2021

A group of Trump supporters in Washington, D.C., including one holding a QAnon sign. (Photo credit: Geoff Livingston)

Anti-establishment sentiments are a key component of political opinion and behavior in the United States and are distinct from traditional indicators of political ideology, according to new research. The findings indicate anti-establishment viewpoints have played a key role in some beliefs that came to prominence during the Trump era, such as the QAnon movement.

The research has been published in the American Journal of Political Science and The Forum.

“I was interested in this project because it increasingly seemed to me that polarization and political identities were increasingly bearing the brunt of the blame –– perhaps erroneously –– for socially undesirable beliefs and actions that were probably the product of other orientations, like conspiracy thinking and a tendency to view politics as a struggle between good and evil,” said co-author Adam M. Enders, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Louisville.

“American politics seems to be different than in previous decades and we wanted to know why,” added co-author Joseph E. Uscinski of the University of Miami. “Many people blame current political problems — conspiracy theories, fake news, political violence — on polarization. But, we were not convinced that our current problems are the fault of people becoming too ideological or too partisan.”

The authors of the new studies feared that research on polarization and partisan tribalism was too focused on a left vs. right framework. In particular, they noticed that people’s general orientation toward the established political order was being overlooked.

“We believe that efforts to ‘squish’ all opinions, people, and groups onto a uni-dimensional space is unwise,” Uscinski explained. “Many people’s opinions aren’t solely ‘left’ or ‘right,’ but rather a mix. Further, many people have antagonisms toward the political system writ large and this has been vastly understudied. It may not be the case that populism is new in the United States; it may instead be the case that in recent years, more politicians are willing to use populist anti-system rhetoric to build coalitions by activating a set of opinions that are already there waiting to be activated.”

“Especially with the ascendance of Donald Trump, we witnessed a blending of left-right political concerns (e.g., partisanship, liberal-conservative ideology) with antagonistic orientations toward the political establishment,” Enders said. “I wanted to try and disentangle these dimensions of opinion in order to better understand both how they are related to each other and how they differentially promote the beliefs and behaviors that have so concerned social scientists in recent years.”

The researchers developed a measure of anti-establishment orientation that was characterized by conspiratorial, populist, and Manichean worldviews. In other words, people who scored high on anti-establishment orientation strongly agreed with statements such as “Much of our lives are being controlled by plots hatched in secret places” (conspiracism), “The opinion of ordinary people is worth more than that of experts and politicians” (populism), and “Politics is a battle between good and evil” (Manicheanism).

Two national surveys of 4,023 U.S. adults (conducted between July 23 to August 6, 2019 and March 17 to March 19, 2020) provided evidence that anti-establishment orientations were distinguishable from left vs. right political ideology.

The belief that the “one percent” controls the economy for their own good was positively associated with having a liberal political ideology, while the belief that a “deep state” is embedded within the government was positively associated with having a conservative political ideology. But anti-establishment sentiments were more strongly associated with endorsing these beliefs than political ideology. The researchers also found an association between anti-establishment orientations and positive feelings toward both Donald Trump and Bernie Sanders, but not Joe Biden.

“Not all opinions are left-right, but rather ‘us, the good people’ versus ‘them, the corrupt elites,'” Uscinski said.

Anti-establishment orientations were also associated with heightened levels of Machiavellianism, narcissism, psychopathy, and support for the use of violence. “We emphasize that
these personality traits are but a few of many potential ingredients of anti-establishment sentiments,” the researchers said. “Regardless, it is noteworthy that individuals exhibiting strong anti-establishment attitudes are more likely than others to display the antisocial personality traits oftentimes attributed to left-right extremists.”

Ender and Uscinski’s research published in The Forum, based on a national survey of 1,947 U.S. adults conducted between October 8 and 21, 2020, found that anti-establishment orientations were also strongly related to the endorsement of conspiracies related to COVID-19, QAnon, Donald Trump, and the 2020 election. For example, agreement with statements such as “Satanic sex traffickers control the government” (QAnon) and “There is a conspiracy to stop the U.S. Post Office from processing mail-in ballots” (election fraud) were weakly related to political ideology, but strongly related to having an anti-establishment orientation.

“Some of what we mistake for partisan rancor is really a blend a left-right political identities –– attachments to a particular group or side –– and a deep-seated antagonism toward and disillusionment with the established political order,” Enders told PsyPost. “Historically, neither of these dimensions of opinion are new; what’s new is a mainstream politician intentionally activating and inflaming anti-establishment orientations, effectively blending these once unrelated dimensions.”

“On the one hand, this can be a recipe for electoral success: Donald Trump was able to mobilize people who hadn’t previously been voting because of their dissatisfaction with ‘establishment’ candidates. On the other hand, it can be a recipe for disaster: January 6th showcased the dangers of mobilizing people with high levels of conspiratorial thinking, Manicheanism, anti-elitism, and some of the other personality correlates of anti-establishment views that we find (e.g., support for violence, narcissism, psychopathy).”

The researchers also found that support for Donald Trump was positively associated with anti-establishment orientations, but anti-establishment orientations were simultaneously associated with reduced support for both the Republican and Democratic parties, a finding which provided a “critical distinction” about the events at the U.S. Capitol on January 6.

“People espousing the most anti-establishment views are attracted to Donald Trump, the outsider, not Donald Trump, the leader of the Republican Party,” the researchers said. “This simultaneous attachment to Trump and detachment to the Republican Party is best summed up by the rioters themselves: ‘hang Mike Pence!'”

The findings highlight that not all political behavior can be best explained by left vs. right orientations. But the researchers emphasized that “much more work needs to be done.”

“While we discuss primarily historical and theoretical literature arguing that anti-establishment viewpoints are hardly new, no one has been empirically tracking them over time,” Enders explained. “Our study is a first cut at taking this ignored dimension of public opinion more seriously. We need to track anti-establishment orientations over time to better understand how they ebb and flow. We also need to track them across social and political contexts to see what role these ideas play in other countries with different political systems, economic systems, etc.”

The study, “American Politics in Two Dimensions: Partisan and Ideological Identities versus Anti-Establishment Orientations“, was authored by Joseph E. Uscinski, Adam M. Enders, Michelle I. Seelig, Casey A. Klofstad, John R. Funchion, Caleb Everett, Stefan Wuchty, Kamal Premaratne, and Manohar N. Murthi.

The study, “The Role of Anti-Establishment Orientations During the Trump Presidency“, was authored by Adam M. Enders and Joseph E. Uscinski.

American Politics in Two Dimensions: Partisan and Ideological Identities versus Anti-Establishment Orientations

Joseph E. Uscinski,Adam M. Enders,Michelle I. Seelig,Casey A. Klofstad,John R. Funchion,Caleb Everett,Stefan Wuchty,Kamal Premaratne,Manohar N. Murthi,

First published: 15 July 2021

 

https://doi.org/10.1111/ajps.12616

Citations: 2

Joseph E. Uscinski is Associate Professor, 1300 Campo Sano Blvd., Department of Political Science, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146 (uscinski@miami.edu). Adam M. Enders is Assistant Professor, Ford Hall, Department of Political Science, University of Louisville, Louisville, KY 40292 (adam.enders@louisville.edu). Michelle I. Seelig is Associate Professor, WCB 3019, Department of Cinema and Interactive Media, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146 (mseelig@miami.edu). Casey A. Klofstad is Professor, 1300 Campo Sano Blvd., Department of Political Science, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146 (c.klofstad@miami.edu). John R. Funchion is Associate Professor, 1252 Memorial Drive, Department of English, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146 (jfunchion@miami.edu). Caleb Everett is Professor, P.O. Box 248106, Department of Anthropology, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146 (caleb@miami.edu). Stefan Wuchty is Associate Professor, P.O. Box 248154, Department of Computer Science and Miami Institute of Data Science and Computing, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146 (s.wuchty@miami.edu). Kamal Premaratne is Professor, 1251 Memorial Drive, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146 (kamal@miami.edu). Manohar N. Murthi is Associate Professor, 1251 Memorial Drive, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL 33146 (mmurthi@miami.edu).

The ordering of the two lead authors' names reflects a principle of rotation. Financial support was provided by the University of Miami U-Link initiative. We wish to thank Miles Armaly, as well as three anonymous reviewers, for their helpful comments.

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Abstract

Contemporary political ills at the mass behavior level (e.g., outgroup aggression, conspiracy theories) are often attributed to increasing polarization and partisan tribalism. We theorize that many such problems are less the product of left-right orientations than an orthogonal “anti-establishment” dimension of opinion dominated by conspiracy, populist, and Manichean orientations. Using two national surveys from 2019 and 2020, we find that this dimension of opinion is correlated with several antisocial psychological traits, the acceptance of political violence, and time spent on extremist social media platforms. It is also related to support for populist candidates, such as Trump and Sanders, and beliefs in misinformation and conspiracy theories. While many inherently view politics as a conflict between left and right, others see it as a battle between “the people” and a corrupt establishment. Our findings demonstrate an urgent need to expand the traditional conceptualization of mass opinion beyond familiar left-right identities and affective orientations.

Sudanese leaders arrested, group denounces 'coup'

In this file picture taken on October 21, 2021, Sudanese demonstrators raise national flags as they take part in a protest in the city of Khartoum Bahri to demand the government's transition to civilian rule - AFP/File


Issued on: 25/10/2021 
Khartoum (AFP)

The internet was cut across the country, AFP journalists said, as dozens of demonstrators gathered on the streets of the capital Khartoum to protest the arrests, setting fire to tyres.

"Armed men have arrested a certain number of political and government leaders from their homes," a government source told AFP.

It was not immediately clear who was behind the arrests, as men in military uniform cut off the main roads leading to the capital and its twin city Omdurman, and state television began broadcasting patriotic songs.

One of the leading forces behind the 2019 revolt, the Sudanese Professionals Association, denounced on Monday what it called a "coup d'etat" and called for a campaign of "civil disobedience".

The news comes just two days after a Sudan faction calling for a transfer of power to civilian rule warned of a "creeping coup", during a press conference that an unidentified mob attack had sought to prevent.

Sudan has been undergoing a precarious transition marred by political divisions and power struggles since the April 2019 ouster of president Omar al-Bashir.

Since August 2019, the country has been led by a civilian-military administration tasked with overseeing the transition to full civilian rule.

But the main civilian bloc -- the Forces for Freedom and Change (FFC) -- which led the anti-Bashir protests in 2019, has splintered into two opposing factions.

Sudan AFP

"The crisis at hand is engineered -- and is in the shape of a creeping coup," mainstream FFC leader Yasser Arman told the Saturday press conference in Khartoum.

"We renew our confidence in the government, Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok, and reforming transitional institutions -- but without dictations or imposition," Arman added.

Rival protests

Tensions between the two sides have long simmered, but divisions ratcheted up after a failed coup on September 21 this year.

Last week tens of thousands of Sudanese marched in several cities to back the full transfer of power to civilians, and to counter a rival days-long sit-in outside the presidential palace in the capital Khartoum demanding a return to "military rule".

Hamdok has previously described the splits in the transitional government as the "worst and most dangerous crisis" facing the transition.

On Saturday, Hamdok denied rumours he had agreed to a cabinet reshuffle, calling them "not accurate".

The premier also "emphasised that he does not monopolise the right to decide the fate of transitional institutions."

Also on Saturday, US Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Jeffrey Feltman met jointly with Hamdok, the chairman of Sudan's ruling body General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, and paramilitary commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo.

"Feltman emphasised US support for a civilian democratic transition in accordance with the expressed wishes of Sudan's people," the US embassy in Khartoum said.

Analysts have said the recent mass protests showed strong support for a civilian-led democracy, but warned street demonstrations may have little impact on the powerful factions pushing a return to military rule.

© 2021 AFP


Sudanese government officials detained and internet access cut in apparent coup

In this file photo, Sudan's Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok speaks in Berlin, Germany on February 14, 2020. 

© Hannibal Hanschke, Reuters

Issued on: 25/10/2021 
Text by: NEWS WIRES

Military forces detained at least five senior Sudanese government figures on Monday, officials said, as the country's main pro-democracy group called on people to take to the streets to counter an apparent military coup.

The Sudanese Professionals’ Association, a group leading demands for a transition to democracy, also said there were internet and phone signal outages across the country.

A possible takeover by the military would be a major setback for Sudan, which has grappled with a transition to democracy since long-time autocrat Omar al-Bashir was toppled by mass protests.

Monday's arrests come after weeks of rising tensions between Sudan’s civilian and military leaders. A failed coup attempt in September fractured the country along old lines, pitting more-conservative Islamists who want a military government against those who toppled al-Bashir more than two years ago in mass protests. In recent days, both camps have taken to the street in demonstrations.

The arrests of the five government figures were confirmed by two officials who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to speak to the media.

The officials said the detained government members include Industry Minister Ibrahim al-Sheikh, Information Minister Hamza Baloul, and Mohammed al-Fiky Suliman, member of the country's ruling transitional body, known as The Sovereign Council, and Faisal Mohammed Saleh, a media adviser to Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok.

The whereabouts of Hamdok were not immediately clear, amid media reports that security forces were stationed outside his home in Khartoum. Photos circulating online showed men in uniform standing in the dark, allegedly near his home.


Ayman Khalid, governor of the state containing the capital, Khartoum, was also arrested, according to the official Facebook page of his office.

The arrests followed meetings the U.S. special envoy for the Horn of Africa Jeffrey Feltman had with Sudanese military and civilian leaders Saturday and Sunday in efforts to resolve the dispute. Sudan's state news website highlighted the meetings with military officials.

NetBlocks, a group which tracks disruptions across the internet, said it had seen a “significant disruption” to both fixed-line and mobile internet connections across Sudan with multiple providers early Monday.

“Metrics corroborate user reports network disruptions appearing consistent with an internet shutdown,” the advocacy group said. “The disruption is likely to limit the free flow of information online and news coverage of incidents on the ground.”

(AP)

Into the 'plastisphere': Scientists comb Japan waters to study new eco threat

Tiny floating fragments from plastic packaging, synthetic clothing and fishing nets have proliferated over the past four decades, and are now found in every part of the world's oceans

 Charly TRIBALLEAU AFP

Issued on: 25/10/2021

Shimoda (Japan) (AFP)

Tiny floating fragments from plastic packaging, synthetic clothing and fishing nets have proliferated over the past four decades, and are now found in every part of the world's oceans -- even the deepest trench.

The planet's seafloor is littered with an estimated 14 million tonnes of microplastics, according to a study released last year, and scientists say more research on them is urgently needed, including their effect on ecosystems, the food chain and human health.

So a team of French and Japanese researchers is analysing samples from the archipelago's coastal waters to study how microplastics make their way into the sea, and how much seeps into the ocean floor.

They are also examining the so-called "plastisphere", where micro-organisms live among discarded plastic.

A team of French and Japanese researchers is analysing samples from the archipelago's coastal waters to study how microplastics make their way into the sea, and how much seeps into the ocean floor 

 Charly TRIBALLEAU AFP

"It's a new ecosystem that didn't exist before the 1970s. So we don't really know which types of microbes are associated with this plastic," Sylvain Agostini, scientific director of the Tara-Jambio project, told AFP.

Having left the funnel-shaped net nicknamed "the sock" to drift for 15 minutes near the surface, the crew hoisted it back on deck to inspect their catch.

"This blue stuff is microplastics, and that's polystyrene, I believe," Agostini said.

They have collected more than 200 samples since their study began in April 2020, all of which contain microplastics.

Jonathan Ramtahal, a student from Trinidad and Tobago taking part in the research, said the team aims to determine whether the bacteria they find is "harmful to the wider food chain".

"Is it something we should be worried about -- do they transport any vectors for diseases? The diversity of bacteria can give us an idea of how it changes in different environments," he said.

'Lead by example'

Other studies have shown that microplastics have infiltrated the planet's most remote regions, and France's Tara Ocean Foundation has previously researched them in the Mediterranean and large European rivers.

Now the foundation is in Japan, the second-biggest producer of plastic packaging waste per capita according to the United Nations.

A 2018 UN report named the United States as the biggest generator of plastic packaging waste per capita, with China the largest overall 

Charly TRIBALLEAU AFP

The Japanese government says its vast waste management scheme stops plastic from finding its way to the sea, and industry research shows 85 percent of plastic waste in Japan is recycled -- although much is burnt for energy, emitting carbon dioxide.

Keiji Nakajima, director of marine plastic pollution control at the environment ministry, said Japan's waters are also affected by the waste of its neighbours.

"Japan's streets and streams are cleaner than those of other countries," he said.

The nation sits "downstream of a major oceanic current that sweeps in plastic waste produced in Southeast Asia and China", Nakajima added.

A 2018 UN report named the United States as the biggest generator of plastic packaging waste per capita, with China the largest overall.

Agostini, an assistant professor at the University of Tsukuba northeast of Tokyo, said that while "there is some truth" in this explanation, it is not watertight.

When plastic waste is found at a river's estuary, or a secluded bay, it's clear that "it doesn't come from thousands of kilometres away", he said.

The Tara-Jambio project is unlikely to settle that debate when its findings are published in several years time, but Agostini argues that if even a small proportion of Japan's plastic waste seeps into the ocean, it is still an "enormous quantity".

Japan is taking small steps to reduce its reliance on plastic: in 2019, it set a target to recycle 100 percent of new plastic by 2035, and last year, stores began charging for plastic bags.

"Packaging habits are ingrained" in Japan, said Kazuo Inaba, head of the Japanese marine-station network Jambio, but he and the team say change is necessary.

"If developed countries don't lead by example, no one will do it," Agostini said.

© 2021 AFP

Drifting into trouble? The tiny ocean creatures with a global impact

Researchers use torpedo-like devices towed from boats to better understand the ocean by collecting some of its smallest inhabitants: plankton 

DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS AFP

Issued on: 25/10/2021 -

Plymouth (United Kingdom) (AFP)

But when scientist Clare Ostle opens it up and draws out the silk scrolls inside, she is looking for the telltale green glow from some of the most important creatures on Earth: plankton.

This is a Continuous Plankton Recorder, torpedo-like devices that for 90 years have been towed by merchant vessels and fishing boats on a vast network of routes.

They help researchers better understand the ocean by collecting some of its smallest inhabitants.

What they have seen is that as climate change heats the seas, plankton are on the move -- with potentially profound consequences for both ocean life and humans.

Plankton -- organisms carried on the tides -- are the foundation of the marine food web.

But they are also part of an intricately balanced system that helps keep us all alive.

As well as helping produce much of the oxygen we breathe, they are a crucial part of the global carbon cycle.

"The big thing that we're seeing is warming," Ostle, coordinator of the Pacific CPR Survey, tells AFP as she demonstrates the plankton recorder off the coast of Plymouth in Britain.

The CPR Survey has documented a decisive shift of plankton towards both the poles in recent decades, as ocean currents change and many marine animals head for cooler areas.

Plankton -- organisms carried on the tides -- are the foundation of the marine food web but also help produce much of the oxygen we breathe and are a crucial part of the global carbon cycle 

DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS AFP

Smaller warm water plankton are also replacing more nutritious cold water ones, often also with differing seasonal cycles, meaning the species that feed on them need to adapt or move too.

"The big worry is when change happens so quickly that the ecosystem can't recover," says Ostle, adding that dramatic temperature spikes can lead "whole fisheries to collapse".

With nearly half of humanity reliant on fish for some 20 percent of their animal protein, this could be devastating.
Biological pump

Plankton is a catch-all term from the Greek for "drifting" and encompasses everything from photosynthesising bacteria many times smaller than the width of a human hair, to jellyfish with long trailing tendrils.

There are two main types: phytoplankton, diverse plant-like cells commonly called algae; and zooplankton, animals like krill and the larvae of fish, crabs and other marine creatures.

Phytoplankton photosynthesise using the sun's rays to turn C02 into energy and oxygen.

In fact, scientists estimate the seas produce around half the oxygen on Earth, and that is mostly thanks to phytoplankton.

When they 'bloom' in vast numbers, plankton are visible from space, turning the water emerald or creating swirls of milky blue 

HO NASA/AFP/File

They are also crucial to the ocean's "biological carbon pump", which helps the sea lock away at least a quarter of C02 emitted by burning fossil fuels.

While trees store carbon in wood and leaves, phytoplankton store it in their bodies.

It passes through the food web, with phytoplankton consumed by zooplankton which, in turn, are eaten by creatures from birds to whales.

"Pretty much everything you can think of in the sea at some stage of its life cycle will eat plankton," says CPR Survey head David Johns.

When organic matter from dead plankton or their predators sinks to the ocean floor it takes carbon with it.

- 'Escalating impacts' -

But scientists warn that climate change has stressed the system, with ocean temperatures rising, fewer nutrients reaching the upper part of the ocean from the deep and increased levels of C02 acidifying seawater.

Climate change has "exposed ocean and coastal ecosystems to conditions that are unprecedented over centuries to millennia with consequences for ocean-dwelling plants and animals around the world," says the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in a leaked draft report on climate impacts, due to be published next year, which predicts "escalating impacts on marine life".

As climate change heats the seas, plankton are on the move -- with potentially profound consequences for both ocean life and humans, researchers have found 

DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS AFP

While phytoplankton are relatively resilient and will likely continue to shift territory as the seas warm, the IPCC expects that deteriorating conditions in the oceans will ultimately lead to an overall decline this century.

Average global phytoplankton biomass -- a measure of total weight or quantity -- is predicted to fall by around 1.8 to six percent, depending on the level of emissions.

But because of its outsized importance, even modest reductions can "amplify up the marine food web", eventually leading to reductions in marine life by roughly five to 17 percent.

Zooplankton -- animals like krill and the larvae of fish, crabs and other marine creatures -- are one of the two main types of plankton, a catch-all term from the Greek for 'drifting' 

DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS AFP

There could also be "changes in carbon cycling and carbon sequestration, as our plankton community changes" with smaller plankton potentially drawing down less C02, says plankton ecologist Abigail McQuatters-Gollop of Plymouth University.

As global leaders prepare to meet at a crucial UN summit on climate change, the issue is a stark example of how accelerating human impacts are destabilising intricate life-sustaining systems.
Thinking small

Tackling this is not as simple as planting trees, McQuatters-Gollop notes.

But fishing sustainably, reducing pollutants and curbing C02 emissions can all help improve ocean health.

In the past, she says conservation has focused on "the big things, the cute things, or the things that are directly worth money" -- like whales, turtles and cod.

But all rely on plankton.

While this "blindness" could be because they are microscopic, people can see plankton traces at the beach -- in foam on waves, or the nighttime twinkle of bioluminescence.

The runoff of nitrogen-rich fertilisers is blamed for creating harmful algae blooms, like the glutinous 'sea snot' off Turkey's coast this year 

 Yasin Akgul AFP/File

Or on the children's television show "SpongeBob SquarePants", whose character Plankton is "the most famous plankton out there", says McQuatters-Gollop.

And when they "bloom" in vast numbers, plankton are visible from space, turning the water a startling emerald, or creating Van Gogh swirls of milky blue, in seasonal displays critical for ocean life.

Like land plants, phytoplankton need nutrients like nitrates, phosphates and iron to grow.

But they can have too much of a good thing: The runoff of nitrogen-rich fertilisers is blamed for creating harmful algae blooms, like the glutinous "sea snot" off Turkey's coast this year.

These can poison marine life or choke oxygen out of the water and may be exacerbated by warming, warns the IPCC.

Harmful algae blooms can poison marine life or choke oxygen out of the water and may be exacerbated by warming, warns the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 

Yasin Akgul AFP/File

Meanwhile, research published in Nature last month found that iron carried in smoke from huge 2019 and 2020 wildfires in Australia sparked a giant swell of phytoplankton thousands of miles away, which could have sucked up substantial amounts of C02.

Blooms can be seeded by nutrients from sand storms or volcanic eruptions and it is these “natural processes” that have inspired David King, founder of the Centre for Climate Repair at Cambridge.

King supports a hotly-debated idea to "fertilise" plankton blooms by sprinkling iron on the surface.

The theory is that this would not only help suck up more C02, but lead to a surge of ocean life, including eventually helping to increase whale populations that have been devastated by hunting.

More whales equals more whale poo, which is full of the nutrients plankton need to bloom, and King hopes could restore a "wonderful circular economy" in the seas.

A pilot project will try the technique in an area of the Arabian Sea carefully sealed off in a "vast plastic bag", but King acknowledges that the idea raises fears of unintended consequences: "We certainly don't want to de-oxygenate the oceans and I'm pretty confident we won't."
Sea mysteries

Ocean organisms have been photosynthesising for billions of years -- long before land plants. But we still have much to learn about them.

It was only in the 1980s that scientists named the planktonic bacteria prochlorococcus, now thought to be the most abundant photosynthesiser on the planet.

Scientist Clare Ostle used Continuous Plankton Recorder ships' logs to show that 'macroplastics' like shopping bags were already in the seas in the 1960s 

DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS AFP

Some "drifters" it turns out can swim, while others are masters of communal living.

Take the partnership between corals and plankton -- it is so important that when it breaks due to warming the corals bleach.

Or Acantharea, a single cell shaped like a snowflake that can gather photosynthesising algae and manipulate them into an energy-generating "battery pack", says Johan Decelle, of the French research institute CNRS and the University of Grenoble Alpes.

They have been "overlooked" because they dissolve in the chemicals used by scientists to preserve samples.

To study plankton under a high-resolution electron microscope, Decelle used to collect samples at the French coast and drive for hours back to Grenoble with them in a special cool box.

But this year he worked with the European Molecular Biology Laboratory on a pioneering project bringing high-tech freezing virtually onto the beach.

This enables the study of these delicate organisms as close as possible to their natural environment.

By contrast, Continuous Plankton Recorders end up mashing their samples into "roadkill", says Ostle.

Continuous Plankton Recorders have helped collect decades of data used to look back to track climate changes 

DANIEL LEAL-OLIVAS AFP

But the value of the survey, which began in 1931 to understand how plankton affected herring stocks, comes from decades of data.

Scientists have used it to look back to track climate changes and it played an important role in the recognition of microplastics.

Ostle used CPR ships' logs to show that "macroplastics" like shopping bags were already in the seas in the 1960s.

From the boat in Plymouth, the water appears calm as sunlight slides across its surface. But every drop is teeming with life.

"There's just a whole galaxy of things going on under there," Ostle says.

© 2021 AF

Climate scientists fear tipping points (maybe you should too)

Scientists fear the triggering of invisible climate tripwires known at tipping points NASA/Maria-Jose VINAS NASA/AFP/File

Issued on: 25/10/2021 

Paris (AFP)

The real disaster scenario begins with the triggering of invisible climate tripwires known as tipping points.

"Climate tipping points are a game-changing risk -- an existential threat -- and we need to do everything within our power to avoid them," said Tim Lenton, director of the Global Systems Institute at the University of Exeter.

What's a tipping point?

Anyone who has leaned back in a chair balancing on two legs knows there is a threshold beyond which you irrevocably crash to the floor.

That portal between two stable states -- in this case, an upright versus a fallen-over chair -- is a tipping point, and Earth's complex, interlocking climate system is full of them.

These temperature thresholds have potentially widespread impacts.

Tropical coral reefs are among the phenomena least resistant to global warming - 

Great Barriier Reef Marine Park/AFP/File

If temperatures rise enough to melt the ice sheets atop Greenland and West Antarctica, it could lift oceans more than a dozen metres (40 feet).

The Amazon tropical forest, upon which we depend to soak up carbon pollution, could turn into savannah.

Or shallow subsoil known as permafrost -- mostly in Siberia -- tenuously holding twice the amount of greenhouse gases already in the atmosphere could see those harmful emissions seep into the air.

"We have seen a number of tipping points already in coral reefs and polar systems, and more are likely in the near term," the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) said in a draft report on climate impacts, due out in February, obtained by AFP.

In most cases, reversing the changes set in motion would be beyond the grasp of humanity for many generations, if not millennia.
Why so scary?

One of the first scientists to unlock the secret of tipping points recalled suddenly understanding some 15 years ago why they were so ominous.

"It was an 'Oh Shit!' moment," Hans Joachim Schellnhuber, founding director of the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), told AFP in an interview.

"Planetary machinery -- the monsoon system, ocean circulation, the jet stream, the big ecosystems -- abounds with non-linear systems," he said, referring to the potential for abrupt, dramatic change.

"That means you have so many points of no return."

In Antarctica, more than half the ice shelves that prevent glaciers -- some larger in area than England and Scotland combined -- from sliding into the ocean and lifting sea levels are at risk of crumbling due to climate change.

Tipping points in Earth's climate systems AFP/File

"It is like uncorking a bottle, and we are uncorking them one by one," said Schellnhuber.

Earth-altering tipping points have different temperature thresholds. Scientists know these tripwires are there, but not exactly where they lie.

Even more unsettling is how easily our already belaboured efforts to eliminate carbon pollution could be overwhelmed by the changes we are setting in motion.

If thawing permafrost surrenders as much CO2 as humanity stops emitting, we find ourselves fighting a war on two fronts: on top of the struggle to slash our own emissions we'd have to cope with those generated by the planet itself.
How many are there?

Scientists count about 15 significant tipping points in the planet's climate system. Some are regional, others are global, all are interconnected.

Those least resistant to global warming and closest to a point of no return are tropical coral reefs, the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, alpine glaciers, Arctic summer sea ice and the Amazon forest.

Warming temperatures are threatening sea ice 

BJ KIRSCHHOFFER POLAR BEARS INTERNATIONAL/AFP/File

Parts of the climate system more resistant to rising temperatures include the global currents that redistribute heat through the oceans, the Arctic jet stream, the Indian monsoon, El Ninos in the Pacific, and desertification in the Sahel.

While permafrost probably doesn't have a single temperature tripwire, the IPCC estimates it will release tens of billions of tonnes of CO2 for every extra degree of global warming.

The last holdout would be East Antarctica's ice sheet, which holds 56 metres worth of sea-level rise.

- Why are we hearing about them now? -

The IPCC's most recent mega-report is the first to give tipping points more than a cursory mention.

"Abrupt responses and tipping points of the climate system... cannot be ruled out," the UN's climate science advisory body now warns.

Deforestation and climate change could turn the Amazon's tropical forests into savannah 

Mayke TOSCANO Mato Grosso State Communication Department/AFP/File

While scientists have long been aware of the danger that tipping points pose, part of the problem has been the inability of climate models -- which are built to track gradual, linear change -- to anticipate the timing or impact of abrupt shocks.

"Just because tipping points are challenging to predict doesn't mean they can be ignored," Lenton said.

What is the ripple effect?

A new wave of research is focusing on how sudden shifts triggered by tipping points ripple across the climate system, leading to possible chain reactions.

Accelerating melt-off from the Greenland ice sheet, for example, is almost certainly slowing down the conveyor belt of ocean currents known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

This, in turn, could push Earth's tropical rain belt southward and weaken the African and Asian monsoons, upon which hundreds of millions depend for rain-fed crops.

Current and projected extent of permafrost impact Kenan AUGEARD AFP/File

Scientists cannot rule out the possibility that the AMOC will stall altogether, as it has in the past. If this happened, European winters would become much harsher and sea levels in the North Atlantic basin could rise substantially.

There are dozens of other ways in which facets of the climate system are intertwined.
What is a 'hothouse Earth'?

Earth's past tells us that continuing greenhouse gas emissions "could tip the global climate into a permanent hot state," according to the recent IPCC report.

Think of it as the ultimate tipping point: "hothouse Earth".

The last time atmospheric concentrations of CO2 matched today's levels, some three million years ago, temperatures were at least 3C more and sea levels five-to-25 metres higher.

A combination of more carbon pollution and emissions from permafrost and dying forests "might set us on such a trajectory in little more than a century," said Jan Zalasiewicz, a palaeo-biology professor at the University of Leicester.

Johan Rockstrom, PIK director, said a 2C cap on warming was "not a social or economic choice, it is actually a planetary boundary".

"The moment that the Earth system flips over from being self-cooling -- which it still is -- to self-warming, that is the moment that we lose control," he told AFP.
What are economic risks?

Tipping points are not currently taken into account when assessing the economic risks associated with climate change -- but experts argue that they should be.

New York University economist Gernot Wagner earlier this year calculated the potential cost to society of major planetary tipping points.

Once Earth's potential for nasty surprises is taken into account, the dollar damage to health and the environment caused by each ton of CO2 emitted today -- known as the social cost of carbon -- would increase by at least a quarter, he found.

In other words, the greater the risk, the higher the cost.
Any silver linings?

But there is potential for positive change too.

Just like social momentum helped to spur rapid transitions -- the ending of slavery, the dismantling apartheid in South Africa, or the push to legalise gay marriage in the US, for example -- so it might be with climate change.

From electric vehicles and green investments, to a global youth movement led by Greta Thunberg, a crescendo of change has experts wondering whether the world is turning the corner on climate.

© 2021 AFP