It’s possible that I shall make an ass of myself. But in that case one can always get out of it with a little dialectic. I have, of course, so worded my proposition as to be right either way (K.Marx, Letter to F.Engels on the Indian Mutiny)
University of Utah mechanical engineering professor Jake J. Abbott has discovered a method of manipulating orbiting space debris with the use of spinning magnets, allowing agencies more dexterous movement in clearing out space junk or repairing satellites. Credit: Dan Hixson/University of Utah College of Engineering
Space has become a trash heap.
According to NASA, there are more than 27,000 pieces of spacedebris bigger than the size of a softball currently orbiting Earth, and they are traveling at speeds of up to 17,500 mph, fast enough for a small chunk to damage a satellite or spacecraft like an intergalactic cannonball.
Consequently, cleaning up this space junk will be an important task if agencies are to shoot more rockets and satellites into orbit. University of Utah mechanical engineering professor Jake J. Abbott is leading a team of researchers that has discovered a method to manipulate orbiting debris with spinning magnets. With this technology, robots could one day gently maneuver the scrap to a decaying orbit or further out into space without actually touching it, or they could repair malfunctioning objects to extend their life.
Their research is detailed in the paper, "Dexterous magnetic manipulation of conductive non-magnetic objects," published this month in the science journal, Nature. The co-authors include U graduate students Lan Pham, Griffin Tabor and Ashkan Pourkand, former graduate student Jacob L. B. Aman, and U School of Computing associate professor Tucker Hermans.
The concept involves moving metallic, non-magnetized objects in space with spinning magnets. When the metallic debris is subjected to a changing magnetic field, electrons circulate within the metal in circular loops, "like when you swirl your cup of coffee and it goes around and around," says Abbott.
The process turns the piece of debris into essentially an electromagnet that creates torque and force, which can allow you to control where the debris goes without physically grabbing it.
While the idea of using these kinds of magnetic currents to manipulate objects in space is not new, what Abbott and his team have discovered is that using multiple magnetic-field sources in a coordinated fashion allows them to move the objects in six degrees of movement, including rotating them. Before, it was only known how to move them in one degree of movement, like just pushing them.
"What we wanted to do was to manipulate the thing, not just shove it but actually manipulate it like you do on Earth," he says. "That form of dexterous manipulation has never been done before."
With this new knowledge, scientists for example could stop a damaged satellite from wildly spinning in order to repair it, something that would not have been possible before.
"You have to take this crazy object floating in space, and you have to get it into a position where it can be manipulated by a robot arm," Abbott says. "But if it's spinning out of control, you could break the robot arm doing that, which would just create more debris."
This method also allows scientists to manipulate objects that are especially fragile. While a robot arm could damage an object because its claw applies force to one part of it, these magnets would apply a gentler force to the entire object so no one section is harmed.
To test their research, the team used a series of magnets to move a copper ball on a plastic raft in a tank of water (the best way to simulate slow-moving objects in microgravity). The magnets moved the sphere not only in a square, but they also rotated the ball.
Abbott says this newly discovered process could be used with a spinning magnet on a robotic arm, a stationary magnet that creates spinning magnetic fields, or a spinning super-conductive electromagnet like those used in MRI scanners.
Abbott believes this principle of manipulating non-magnetic metallic objects with magnets could also have applications beyond the clearing of space debris.
"I'm starting to open my mind to what potential applications there are," he says. "We have a new way to apply a force to an object for precise alignment without touching it."
But for now, this idea could immediately be applied to help fix the problem of space junk orbiting the Earth.
"NASA is tracking thousands of space debris the same way that air traffic controllers track aircraft. You have to know where they are because you could accidentally crash into them," Abbott says. "The U.S. government and the governments of the world know of this problem because there is more and more of this stuff accumulating with each passing day."Crashing Chinese rocket highlights growing dangers of space debris
More information:Lan N. Pham et al, Dexterous magnetic manipulation of conductive non-magnetic objects,Nature(2021).DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03966-6
'Nothing else here:' Why it's so hard for world to quit coal
by Aniruddha Ghosal
An Indian laborer smiles as she takes a break from loading coal into a truck in Dhanbad, an eastern Indian city in Jharkhand state, Friday, Sept. 24, 2021. A 2021 Indian government study found that Jharkhand state—among the poorest in India and the state with the nation's largest coal reserves—is also the most vulnerable Indian state to climate change. Efforts to fight climate change are being held back in part because coal, the biggest single source of climate-changing gases, provides cheap electricity and supports millions of jobs. It's one of the dilemmas facing world leaders gathered in Glasgow, Scotland this week in an attempt to stave off the worst effects of climate change. Credit: AP Photo/Altaf Qadri
Every day, Raju gets on his bicycle and unwillingly pedals the world a tiny bit closer to climate catastrophe.
Every day, he straps half a dozen sacks of coal pilfered from mines—up to 200 kilograms, or 440 pounds—to the reinforced metal frame of his bike. Driving mostly at night to avoid the police and the heat, he transports the coal 16 kilometers (10 miles) to traders who pay him $2.
Thousands of others do the same.
This has been Raju's life since he arrived in Dhanbad, an eastern Indian city in Jharkhand state in 2016; annual floods in his home region have decimated traditional farm jobs. Coal is all he has.
This is what the United Nations climate change conference in Scotland, known as COP26, is up against.
Earth desperately needs people to stop burning coal, the biggest single source of greenhouse gases, to avoid the most catastrophic impacts of climate change—including the intense flooding that has cost agricultural jobs in India. But people rely on coal. It is the world's biggest source of fuel for electric power and so many, desperate like Raju, depend on it for their very lives.
"The poor have nothing but sorrow ... but so many people, they've been saved by coal," Raju said.
Mining is in progress at an open-cast mine near Dhanbad, an eastern Indian city in Jharkhand state, Friday, Sept. 24, 2021. Efforts to fight climate change are being held back in part because coal, the biggest single source of climate-changing gases, provides cheap electricity and supports millions of jobs. It's one of the dilemmas facing world leaders gathered in Glasgow, Scotland this week in an attempt to stave off the worst effects of climate change. Credit: AP Photo/Altaf Qadri
Alok Sharma, the United Kingdom's president-designate of the conference, said in May that he hoped the conference would mark the moment where coal is left "in the past where it belongs."
While that may be possible for some developed nations, it is not so simple for developing countries.
They argue they should be allowed the "carbon space" to grow as developed nations have, by burning cheap fuels like coal, which is used in industrial processes such as steelmaking along with electric power generation. On average, the typical American uses 12 times more electricity than the typical Indian. There are over 27 million people in India who don't have electricity at all.
Power demand in India is expected to grow faster than anywhere in the world over the next two decades as the economy grows and ever more extreme heat increases demand for air conditioning that so much the rest of the world takes for granted.
A woman is silhouetted as she carries a basket of coal scavenged from a mine near Dhanbad, an eastern Indian city in Jharkhand state, Friday, Sept. 24, 2021. A 2021 Indian government study found that Jharkhand state—among the poorest in India and the state with the nation's largest coal reserves—is also the most vulnerable Indian state to climate change. Efforts to fight climate change are being held back in part because coal, the biggest single source of climate-changing gases, provides cheap electricity and supports millions of jobs. It's one of the dilemmas facing world leaders gathered in Glasgow, Scotland this week in an attempt to stave off the worst effects of climate change. Credit: AP Photo/Altaf Qadri
Meeting that demand will not fall to people like Raju, but to Coal India, already the world's largest miner, which aims to increase production to over 1 billion tons a year by 2024.
D.D. Ramanandan, the secretary at the Centre of Indian Trade Unions in Ranchi said that conversations of moving beyond coal were only taking place in Paris, Glasgow or New Delhi. They had hardly begun in India's coal belt. "Coal has continued for 100 years. Workers believe it will continue to do so," he said.
The consequences will be felt both globally and locally. Unless the world drastically cuts greenhouse gas emissions the planet will suffer even more extreme heat waves, erratic rainfall and destructive storms in coming years, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
And a 2021 Indian government study found that Jharkhand state—among the poorest in India and the state with the nation's largest coal reserves—is also the most vulnerable Indian state to climate change.
Indian laborers load coal into a truck in Dhanbad, an eastern Indian city in Jharkhand state, Friday, Sept. 24, 2021. A 2021 Indian government study found that Jharkhand state—among the poorest in India and the state with the nation's largest coal reserves—is also the most vulnerable Indian state to climate change. Efforts to fight climate change are being held back in part because coal, the biggest single source of climate-changing gases, provides cheap electricity and supports millions of jobs. It's one of the dilemmas facing world leaders gathered in Glasgow, Scotland this week in an attempt to stave off the worst effects of climate change. Credit: AP Photo/Altaf Qadri
But there are roughly 300,000 people working directly with government-owned coal mines, earning fixed salaries and benefits. And there are nearly 4 million people in India whose livelihoods are directly or indirectly linked to coal, said Sandeep Pai, who studies energy security and climate change at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
India's coal belt is dotted by industries that need the fuel, like steel and brick making. The Indian railways, country's largest employers, earns half their revenue by transporting coal, allowing it to subsidize passenger travel.
"Coal is an ecosystem," Pai said.
For people like Naresh Chauhan, 50 and his wife Rina Devi, 45, India's economic slowdown resulting from the pandemic has intensified their dependence on coal.
The two have lived in a village at the edge of the Jharia coalfield in Dhanbad all their lives. Accidental fires, some of which have been blazing for decades, have charred the ground and left it spongey. Smoke hisses from cracks in the surface near their hut. Fatal sinkholes are common.
A young woman holds a torch in her mouth as she collects coal from a mine near Dhanbad, an eastern Indian city in Jharkhand state, Friday, Sept. 24, 2021. A 2021 Indian government study found that Jharkhand state—among the poorest in India and the state with the nation's largest coal reserves—is also the most vulnerable Indian state to climate change. Efforts to fight climate change are being held back in part because coal, the biggest single source of climate-changing gases, provides cheap electricity and supports millions of jobs. It's one of the dilemmas facing world leaders gathered in Glasgow, Scotland this week in an attempt to stave off the worst effects of climate change. Credit: AP Photo/Altaf Qadri
The couple earn $3 a day selling four baskets of scavenged coal to traders.
Families who've lived amid coal mines for generations rarely own any land they can farm and have nowhere else to go. Naresh hopes that his son would learn to drive so that he, at least, could get away. But even that may not be enough. There's less work for the city's existing taxi drivers. Wedding parties, who in the past reserved cars to ferry guests, have shrunk. Fewer travelers come to the city than before.
"There is just coal, stone and fire. Nothing else here."
That could mean even harder times for the people in Dhanbad as the world eventually does turn away from coal. Pai says this is already happening as renewable energy gets cheaper and coal becomes less and less profitable.
India and other countries with coal-dependent regions have to diversify their economies and retrain workers, he said—both to protect the livelihoods of workers and to help speed the transition away from coal by offering new opportunities.
Murti Devi, who scavenges coal for living, prepares a hearth fueled by coal at a village near Dhanbad, an eastern Indian city in Jharkhand state, Friday, Sept. 24, 2021. The 32-year-old single mother of four lost the job she had all her life when the mine she worked for closed four years ago. Nothing came of the resettlement plans promised by the coal company so she, like so many others, turned to scavenging coal. On good days, she'll make a dollar. On other days, she relies on neighbors for help. "If there is coal, then we live. If there isn't any coal, then we don't live," she said. Credit: AP Photo/Altaf Qadri
A truck loaded with coal drives past a stationary freight train carrying coal at Chainpur village near Hazaribagh, in eastern state of Jharkhand, Sunday, Sept. 26, 2021. A 2021 Indian government study found that Jharkhand state—among the poorest in India and the state with the nation's largest coal reserves—is also the most vulnerable Indian state to climate change. Efforts to fight climate change are being held back in part because coal, the biggest single source of climate-changing gases, provides cheap electricity and supports millions of jobs. It's one of the dilemmas facing world leaders gathered in Glasgow, Scotland this week in an attempt to stave off the worst effects of climate change. Credit: AP Photo/Altaf Qadri
A man climbs a steep ridge with a basket of coal scavenged from a mine near Dhanbad, an eastern Indian city in Jharkhand state, Friday, Sept. 24, 2021. A 2021 Indian government study found that Jharkhand state—among the poorest in India and the state with the nation's largest coal reserves—is also the most vulnerable Indian state to climate change. Efforts to fight climate change are being held back in part because coal, the biggest single source of climate-changing gases, provides cheap electricity and supports millions of jobs. It's one of the dilemmas facing world leaders gathered in Glasgow, Scotland this week in an attempt to stave off the worst effects of climate change. Credit: AP Photo/Altaf Qadri
A boy stands next to small pile of coal burning after scavenging from an open-cast mine near Dhanbad, an eastern Indian city in Jharkhand state, Thursday, Sept. 23, 2021. A 2021 Indian government study found that Jharkhand state—among the poorest in India and the state with the nation's largest coal reserves—is also the most vulnerable Indian state to climate change. Efforts to fight climate change are being held back in part because coal, the biggest single source of climate-changing gases, provides cheap electricity and supports millions of jobs. It's one of the dilemmas facing world leaders gathered in Glasgow, Scotland this week in an attempt to stave off the worst effects of climate change. Credit: AP Photo/Altaf Qadri
Light trails are left by passing traffic as they drive past the statue of an unknown coal miner in the middle of a square in Dhanbad, an eastern Indian city in Jharkhand state, Thursday, Sept. 23, 2021. A 2021 Indian government study found that Jharkhand state—among the poorest in India and the state with the nation's largest coal reserves—is also the most vulnerable Indian state to climate change. Efforts to fight climate change are being held back in part because coal, the biggest single source of climate-changing gases, provides cheap electricity and supports millions of jobs. It's one of the dilemmas facing world leaders gathered in Glasgow, Scotland this week in an attempt to stave off the worst effects of climate change. Credit: AP Photo/Altaf Qadri
Laborers load coal onto trucks for transportation near Dhanbad, an eastern Indian city in Jharkhand state, Friday, Sept. 24, 2021. A 2021 Indian government study found that Jharkhand state—among the poorest in India and the state with the nation's largest coal reserves—is also the most vulnerable Indian state to climate change. Efforts to fight climate change are being held back in part because coal, the biggest single source of climate-changing gases, provides cheap electricity and supports millions of jobs. It's one of the dilemmas facing world leaders gathered in Glasgow, Scotland this week in an attempt to stave off the worst effects of climate change. Credit: AP Photo/Altaf Qadri
Smoke hisses from the cracks in the ground as a villager holds his child in front of houses damaged due to subsidence near Dhanbad, an eastern Indian city in Jharkhand state, Friday, Sept. 24, 2021. A 2021 Indian government study found that Jharkhand state—among the poorest in India and the state with the nation's largest coal reserves—is also the most vulnerable Indian state to climate change. Efforts to fight climate change are being held back in part because coal, the biggest single source of climate-changing gases, provides cheap electricity and supports millions of jobs. It's one of the dilemmas facing world leaders gathered in Glasgow, Scotland this week in an attempt to stave off the worst effects of climate change. Credit: AP Photo/Altaf Qadri
A young woman carries a basket of coal scavenged from a mine near Dhanbad, an eastern Indian city in Jharkhand state, Thursday, Sept. 23, 2021. A 2021 Indian government study found that Jharkhand state—among the poorest in India and the state with the nation's largest coal reserves—is also the most vulnerable Indian state to climate change. Efforts to fight climate change are being held back in part because coal, the biggest single source of climate-changing gases, provides cheap electricity and supports millions of jobs. It's one of the dilemmas facing world leaders gathered in Glasgow, Scotland this week in an attempt to stave off the worst effects of climate change. Credit: AP Photo/Altaf Qadri
Members of coal workers' community fetch drinking water from a pipe at a coal depot near an open-caste mine in Dhanbad, an eastern Indian city in Jharkhand state, Friday, Sept. 24, 2021. A 2021 Indian government study found that Jharkhand state—among the poorest in India and the state with the nation's largest coal reserves—is also the most vulnerable Indian state to climate change. Efforts to fight climate change are being held back in part because coal, the biggest single source of climate-changing gases, provides cheap electricity and supports millions of jobs. It's one of the dilemmas facing world leaders gathered in Glasgow, Scotland this week in an attempt to stave off the worst effects of climate change. Credit: AP Photo/Altaf Qadri
A washerman uses coal to heat up iron in Dhanbad, an eastern Indian city in Jharkhand state, Saturday, Sept. 25, 2021. A 2021 Indian government study found that Jharkhand state—among the poorest in India and the state with the nation's largest coal reserves—is also the most vulnerable Indian state to climate change. Efforts to fight climate change are being held back in part because coal, the biggest single source of climate-changing gases, provides cheap electricity and supports millions of jobs. It's one of the dilemmas facing world leaders gathered in Glasgow, Scotland this week in an attempt to stave off the worst effects of climate change. Credit: AP Photo/Altaf Qadri
Naresh Chauhan, 50, his wife Rina Devi, 45 fill sacks with coal in Dhanbad, an eastern Indian city in Jharkhand state, Friday, Sept. 24, 2021. The two have lived in a village at the edge of the Jharia coalfield in Dhanbad all their lives. The couple earn $3 a day selling four baskets of scavenged coal to traders. For people like Chauhan and Devi, India's economic slowdown resulting from the pandemic has intensified their dependence on coal. Credit: AP Photo/Altaf Qadri
Restaurants along a food street use coal hearths in Dhanbad, an eastern Indian city in Jharkhand state, Saturday, Sept. 25, 2021. A 2021 Indian government study found that Jharkhand state—among the poorest in India and the state with the nation's largest coal reserves—is also the most vulnerable Indian state to climate change. Efforts to fight climate change are being held back in part because coal, the biggest single source of climate-changing gases, provides cheap electricity and supports millions of jobs. It's one of the dilemmas facing world leaders gathered in Glasgow, Scotland this week in an attempt to stave off the worst effects of climate change. Credit: AP Photo/Altaf Qadri
Flames rise out of the fissures in the ground above coal mines in the village of Liloripathra near Dhanbad, an eastern Indian city in Jharkhand state, Friday, Sept. 24, 2021. A 2021 Indian government study found that Jharkhand state—among the poorest in India and the state with the nation's largest coal reserves—is also the most vulnerable Indian state to climate change. Efforts to fight climate change are being held back in part because coal, the biggest single source of climate-changing gases, provides cheap electricity and supports millions of jobs. It's one of the dilemmas facing world leaders gathered in Glasgow, Scotland this week in an attempt to stave off the worst effects of climate change. Credit: AP Photo/Altaf Qadri
A laborer poses for a photograph while taking a break from loading coal into a truck in Dhanbad, an eastern Indian city in Jharkhand state, Friday, Sept. 24, 2021. A 2021 Indian government study found that Jharkhand state—among the poorest in India and the state with the nation's largest coal reserves—is also the most vulnerable Indian state to climate change. Efforts to fight climate change are being held back in part because coal, the biggest single source of climate-changing gases, provides cheap electricity and supports millions of jobs. It's one of the dilemmas facing world leaders gathered in Glasgow, Scotland this week in an attempt to stave off the worst effects of climate change. Credit: AP Photo/Altaf Qadri
Murti Devi, who scavenges coal for living, prepares a hearth fueled by coal at a village near Dhanbad, an eastern Indian city in Jharkhand state, Friday, Sept. 24, 2021. The 32-year-old single mother of four lost the job she had all her life when the mine she worked for closed four years ago. Nothing came of the resettlement plans promised by the coal company so she, like so many others, turned to scavenging coal. On good days, she'll make a dollar. On other days, she relies on neighbors for help. "If there is coal, then we live. If there isn't any coal, then we don't live," she said. Credit: AP Photo/Altaf Qadri
A truck loaded with coal drives past a stationary freight train carrying coal at Chainpur village near Hazaribagh, in eastern state of Jharkhand, Sunday, Sept. 26, 2021. A 2021 Indian government study found that Jharkhand state—among the poorest in India and the state with the nation's largest coal reserves—is also the most vulnerable Indian state to climate change. Efforts to fight climate change are being held back in part because coal, the biggest single source of climate-changing gases, provides cheap electricity and supports millions of jobs. It's one of the dilemmas facing world leaders gathered in Glasgow, Scotland this week in an attempt to stave off the worst effects of climate change. Credit: AP Photo/Altaf Qadri
Otherwise, more will end up like Murti Devi. The 32-year-old single mother of four lost the job she had all her life when the mine she worked for closed four years ago. Nothing came of the resettlement plans promised by the coal company so she, like so many others, turned to scavenging coal. On good days, she'll make a dollar. On other days, she relies on neighbors for help.
"If there is coal, then we live. If there isn't any coal, then we don't live," she said.
With the world poised to hit more than five million people officially dead from the coronavirus, experts tell AFP the pandemic's future path will depend greatly on vaccinations.
How many dead?
The true number of fatalities is believed to be far higher than the five million based on daily reports provided by health authorities in each country.
The World Health Organization estimates the overall toll could be two to three times higher than official records due to the excess mortality linked to COVID-19.
The Economist magazine looked at excess mortality and concluded around 17 million have died from COVID.
"This figure seems more credible to me," Pasteur Institute epidemiologist Professor Arnaud Fontanet told AFP.
Whatever the case the death toll is lower than from other historic pandemics such as Spanish flu—caused by another novel virus—that killed 50-100 million in 1918-1919.
AIDS has left more than 36 million people dead over 40 years.
Nonetheless, COVID has "caused a lot of deaths in a short period", said Jean-Claude Manuguerra, a virologist at the French institute.
"It could have been a lot more dramatic without all the measures taken, particularly restrictions on movement of people and then the vaccinations," according to Fontanet.
Have we hit a plateau?
The emergence of a virus usually happens in two phases, Fontanet explained.
First "an explosive epidemic phase" when the virus spreads through a population which had never been in contact with it before.
During the second phase it "settles down" as immunity is built up and becomes endemic.
With COVID, "it's the first time in the history of pandemics that an effort has been made on a global scale to speed up the transition" between the two phases, Fontanet said.
The acceleration has been enabled by vaccinations.
"It has allowed the population to acquire immunity artificially against a virus it had not known and thus to do in 18 months what normally takes three to five years with a lot more dead," he said.
That's why the next stages will vary according to the level of vaccination in each country and the efficacy of the vaccines used.
"We are probably several months away from the time when there will be a safety net everywhere. The problem is to know if it will be sufficiently strong enough.
"This virus will still be circulating. The target today is no longer its elimination but protection against the serious types." Fontanet said.
"The idea is that COVID leads neither to hospital or the cemetery," added Manuguerra.
What future awaits different nations?
The face of the pandemic is expected to change with the wave after wave so far witnessed fading in industrial countries where most people are vaccinated. Surges will above all hit the non-vaccinated.
"For industrialised countries, I believe we are heading for seasonal COVID epidemics, which will perhaps be a little more severe than the flu epidemic in the first years before settling down," said Fontanet.
Global immunity will be built layer upon layer, he stressed, with vaccines adding to immunity from natural infections.
Other countries such as China or India with a strong vaccination capacity could follow a similar path.
Nations that adopted a zero COVID strategy to eradicate the disease face failure because of the highly contagious nature of the Delta variant.
They are today racing to inoculate everyone, said Fontanet, with the likely result Australia and New Zealand for example will quickly catch up.
More difficult scenarios await regions with limited vaccine capacity, such as much of Africa.
The strong resurgence in eastern Europe has confirmed that failure to vaccinate enough people exposes a population to "severe epidemics with an impact on hospitals", according to Fontanet.
While the current increase in cases in western Europe—despite high levels of vaccination—should make us cautious.
"You should not take a Europe-centric view: in a pandemic, it's the whole planet that has to be taken into consideration. And for the time being, the pandemic has not stopped," warned Jean-Claude Manuguerra.
What about new variants?
The biggest fear is the emergence of new variants resistant to vaccination.
Delta has swept aside previous variants including Alpha and has stopped new strains such as Mu or Lambda from spreading.
But more than totally new variants, experts now anticipate that Delta itself will mutate and may become vaccine resistant.
"Delta is the main virus. So statistically it's from there that we risk seeing a variant of a variant," said Manuguerra.
The British authorities are monitoring a Delta sub-variant dubbed AY4.2. There is no evidence for now that vaccines are less efficient against it.
"It's important to keep up with genomic surveillance," Manugerra noted, referring to efforts to detect different variants.
It allows "the emergence of variants to be identified quickly enough and to know if they are more dangerous, more transmissible and if immunity still works.
