COP 26: 'One of the whitest' climate conferences in years, say environmentalists

The countries hit hardest by climate change are struggling to attend a UN climate summit that has been hailed as the "best last chance" to stop global warming. What are the implications?


Climate youth activists, Indigenous people, and parents call on leaders to 'End Climate Betrayal'

A catalog of mistakes means that representatives from the Global South have found it difficult to show up to a conference in the United Kingdom where world leaders are deciding how to slow the planet's further heating.

The number of people registered to attend COP26 has doubled from the last UN climate conference in 2019 to almost 40,000 people, according to documents published by the organizers Tuesday, but delegates and observers from poorer countries say their colleagues have struggled to make it to the summit.

Travel restrictions to slow the spread of the coronavirus, last-minute changes in quarantine rules, and the high costs of flights and hotels have forced many delegates to attend the conference via video call. Because of restrictions on space in the rooms in Glasgow, environmental groups representing vulnerable people across the world say they have been shut out of meetings.

The summit — hailed as the "best last chance" to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial temperatures — is an opportunity for world leaders to agree on deals that would stave off increasingly extreme weather. The collective voice of those who really need urgent climate action is what matters, said Tasneem Essop, international director of Climate Action Network, a global network of 1,500 civil society groups. "Unfortunately, that is already diminished," Essop said.

'Views are not being considered'

The UK government, which is hosting the event, claimed in May that COP26 should be "the most inclusive COP ever" and offered vaccines to all delegates, observers and media. But participants have said both vaccines and visas were difficult to get hold of.

Particularly frustrating, they say, is that most poor and middle-income countries were only taken off the UK's coronavirus red list — for which incoming travelers would need to quarantine for 10 days — two weeks before the conference. At such short notice, some delegates had no choice but to stay at home, while others who booked travel last-minute have only been able to find accommodation in the neighboring city Edinburgh.

"If you're not represented, your views are not being considered," said Colin Young, director of the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CARICOM), a group of 15 Caribbean countries, some of which were initially on the red list. "Our delegations are always small to start with because of issues of funding. When you have to trim that down even more, then representation is really an issue that we are concerned about."

Seats at the table

At the heart of the dispute is a question of fairness.

Countries from the Global South, which have done the least to cause climate change but bear the brunt of its damages, are fighting for agreements on two key deals at the summit. The first is to fulfil a broken promise made by rich countries at a climate summit in 2009 to give poorer ones $100 billion a year by 2020 to green their economies and adapt to climate change. The second is to acknowledge their role in the losses and damages caused by increasingly extreme weather events like tropical cyclones and wildfires.

Delegates face long waits to get into the COP26 summit. Some 40,000 are registered to attend but many from the Global South have not been able to make it

"That has been an issue that the rich nations have not wanted to address at all," said Essop from Climate Action Network. The voices of poorer countries, she added, would be "critical" to ensure rich countries finance losses and damages.

"If the developed countries are serious, they need to show that leadership commitment," said Halima Bawa-Bwari, an environmental scientist at the Department of Climate Change, Nigeria, adding that many of the Nigerian delegation were missing meetings because they were commuting from outside the city.
Bigger delegations

The UNFCCC, the body that organizes climate negotiations, published a list of registered participants after requests from DW. It shows that compared to the previous year, around 150 countries increased the size of their delegation, 6 stayed the same, and 33 registered smaller delegations.

But it is unclear how many of those roughly 22,000 registered delegates, 14,000 observers and 4,000 journalists will turn up. The UNFCCC did not specify which participants are only attending virtually. It had not responded to a request for comment by the time of publication.

"If it's held virtually, Africa can't participate," said Mamoudou Ouedraogo from the civil society group Association for Education and Environment in Burkina Faso, adding that unlike many of his colleagues, he was lucky to be able to get to Glasgow.

Participants attending virtually have to battle with poor internet connections. "You can go two, three days without internet," Ouedraogo said.

Bianca Coutinho, an advocacy advisor at ICLEI, a group representing mayors across the world, said they had been forced to ask mayors from cities in the Global South to speak on behalf of others who could not make it. They also held joint sessions with some participants attending virtually and others in-person. "Luckily, the hybrid events are working," she said.

Civil society

Elsewhere within the conference halls, participants are finding it hard to take part in sessions described as open.

To help maintain social distancing, many sessions are ticketed. But coalitions of environmental groups have been granted just a handful of tickets to cover dozens of events, campaigners said.

"There is not enough space in the venue to accommodate everybody that is accredited," said Nathan Thanki from the Global Campaign to Demand Climate Justice.

The overall result, participants have complained, is a climate summit in which the countries and peoples hit hardest by climate change are unable to get their voices heard.

"Civil society, social movements and governments have found it incredibly challenging to jump through all the hoops necessary to get here to the UK," said Thanki. "Compared to previous years, this COP is one of the whitest."

With additional reporting from Irene Banos Ruiz and Heather Moore, and data analysis from Gianna Grün

Coral bleaching impacts 98% of Great Barrier Reef: study

The frequency, intensity and scale of climate-fuelled marine heatwaves that cause coral bleaching are increasing, researchers say SARAH LAI AFP/File

Issued on: 04/11/2021 - 
Brisbane (Australia) (AFP) – Coral bleaching has affected 98 percent of Australia's Great Barrier Reef since 1998, leaving just a fraction of the world's largest reef system untouched, according to a study published Friday.

The paper in the peer-reviewed journal Current Biology found that just two percent of the vast underwater ecosystem had escaped impacts since the first mass coral bleaching event in 1998 -- then the world's hottest year ever, a record that has repeatedly been broken as climate change accelerates.

Lead author Terry Hughes, from the ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies at James Cook University, said the frequency, intensity and scale of climate-fuelled marine heatwaves that cause coral bleaching are increasing.

"Five bouts of mass bleaching since 1998 have turned the Great Barrier Reef into a checkerboard of reefs with very different recent histories, ranging from two percent of reefs that have escaped bleaching altogether, to 80 percent that have now bleached severely at least once since 2016," he said.

Bleaching occurs when healthy corals become stressed by spikes in ocean temperatures, causing them to expel algae living in their tissues which drains them of their vibrant colours.

The Great Barrier Reef has suffered three mass bleaching events during heatwaves in 2016, 2017 and 2020, leaving many affected corals struggling to survive.

Government scientists said in July that corals have shown some signs of recovery since the last bleaching but admit the long-term outlook for the 2,300-kilometre-long (1,400-mile-long) ecosystem is "very poor".

The reef is also susceptible to harm from cyclones and outbreaks of crown-of-thorns starfish, which eat the coral, with both factors becoming more damaging due to climate change.

The research found corals that had previously been exposed to heatwaves were less susceptible to heat stress, but co-author Sean Connolly, from the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, warned more frequent and severe bleaching would reduce the reef's resilience.

Bleaching occurs when healthy corals become stressed by spikes in ocean temperatures WILLIAM WEST AFP/File

"Corals still need time to recover before another round of heat stress so they can make babies that will disperse, settle and recover the depleted parts of the reef," he said.

"Action to curb climate change is crucial."

The findings come during a landmark United Nations climate summit in Glasgow, Scotland, where Australia committed to reaching net zero carbon emissions by 2050 but failed to announce a more ambitious 2030 target.

One of the world's biggest exporters of coal and gas, Australia's economy is heavily reliant on fossil fuels and its conservative government has been reluctant to kick the country's addiction.

© 2021 AFP

Spain unveils plan for revival of crisis-hit lagoon

Issued on: 04/11/2021 - 

Dead fish began washing up on the Mar Menor's shores in August 

Jose Miguel FERNANDEZ AFP/File

Madrid (AFP) – Spain's environment ministry on Thursday unveiled a roadmap for regenerating the stricken Mar Menor, one of Europe's largest saltwater lagoons that is slowly dying from agricultural pollution.

The plan would curb some harmful agricultural practices blamed for pushing the lagoon in southeastern Spain to what ecologists have described as "the brink of ecological collapse".

"The environmental crisis of the Mar Menor is unsustainable, the damage must be stopped immediately," Environment Minister Teresa Ribera said as she unveiled the 382-million-euro ($440-million) investment plan on a visit to the area.

In August, millions of dead fish and crustaceans began washing up on the lagoon's shores, scenes that experts have repeatedly blamed on agricultural pollution.

They say the sea creatures died due to a lack of oxygen caused by hundreds of tonnes of fertiliser nitrates leaking into the water, triggering a phenomenon called eutrophication which collapses aquatic ecosystems.

The ministry's plan for 2022-26 includes short- and medium-term steps to slash the contaminants entering the lagoon, ending illegal irrigation practices and revitalising the Mar Menor's shoreline.

It outlines several environmental regeneration projects to support biodiversity in and around the lagoon, including the creation of a 1.5-kilometre (one mile) buffer zone along the Mar Menor's shores.

Earlier this year, Ribera accused regional authorities of turning a blind eye to farming irregularities in the Campo de Cartagena, an intensively farmed area surrounding the lagoon.

The plan involves cracking down on illegal irrigation and cutting off supplies to farms without irrigation rights, reviewing permits for wastewater disposal and monitoring livestock farms.

Earlier this month, ecologists submitted a formal complaint to the EU over Spain's "continued failure" to protect the Mar Menor, urging the European Commission to take "immediate action".

Although the lagoon is protected under various EU directives and the UN environment programme, they said Spain has failed to comply with its legal obligations, taking "only superficial steps" to safeguard the Mar Menor from damaging agricultural practices.

© 2021 AFP

Mexico's heritage 'not for sale,' culture minister says

Issued on: 04/11/2021 

Mexican Culture Minister Alejandra Frausto told AFP in an interview that her country's heritage 'is not for sale'

PEDRO PARDO AFP

Mexico City (AFP) – Mexico's culture minister has hit out at foreign auctions of pre-Hispanic artefacts from the Latin American country, saying her nation's heritage "is not for sale."

In an interview with AFP, Alejandra Frausto lamented that "cultural heritage has become an object of commerce," despite being part of "the identity of peoples."

Two French auctions of pre-Hispanic pieces are the latest to anger President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador's government, which says the items were obtained "illegally."

"We made an appeal to the auction houses and they told us they were certain that the ownership is legitimate," Frausto said.

"According to Mexican law, any piece of national heritage that is permanently outside the country, not temporarily for an exhibition or cultural cooperation, comes from an illegal act," she added.

Since Lopez Obrador took office in 2018, 5,800 pieces have been returned to Mexico and are now on display in the country's museums, she noted.

Italian general Roberto Riccardi was recently awarded the Aztec Eagle, the highest distinction granted to a foreigner in Mexico, for his work in the recovery of archaeological pieces.

Such objects are not luxury items or home decorations but part of what "makes us a cultural nation," Frausto said.

That is why "heritage is not for sale," she added.

Mexico had called for the cancelation of the auction of 40 objects by the Artcurial house in Paris that nevertheless went ahead this week, as well as another planned next week by Christie's.


A visitor looks at a sculpture called "El Creador" at the "Greatness of Mexico" exhibition at the National Museum of Anthropology in the Mexican capital Pedro PARDO AFP/File

In July, Mexico and France signed a declaration of intent to strengthen their cooperation in the fight against trafficking in cultural property.

Frausto said her country now had more tools at its disposal to tackle the problem.

"We broke the inertia," said the minister, who also plans to stand up for indigenous weavers in a row over what Mexico calls cultural appropriation by international fashion houses.

In recent years Mexico has been trying to recover artefacts in the hands of private collectors around the world, with only partial success.

In February, Christie's auctioned 40 pre-Hispanic pieces in Paris for a total of around $3 million.

"We appeal to the ethics of collectors. We appeal to those who may think that acquiring this as a luxury item does not violate the culture and identity of a country," Frausto said.

"Recovering these fragments of the history and cultures of Mexico helps us to recover an identity" that some people wanted to take away, she said.

The illicit trade in cultural goods generates nearly $10 billion each year, according to UNESCO.

© 2021 AFP

US submarine commander fired after crash into sea mountain

Issued on: 04/11/2021 - 

The fast-attack nuclear submarine USS Connecticut -- seen here in May -- collided with an uncharted underwater mountain on October 2, 2021

 Lt. Mack Jamieson,  US NAVY/AFP

Washington (AFP) – The US Navy on Friday sacked the commanding officer, executive officer and top enlisted sailor of a nuclear-powered submarine that crashed into an underwater mountain, saying the October 2 accident was preventable.

Commander Cameron Aljilani and two others were removed from their positions following an investigation into the crash in the disputed South China Sea.

The USS Connecticut was forced to sail on the surface for a week to reach Guam.

"Sound judgement, prudent decision-making and adherence to required procedures in navigation planning, watch team execution and risk management could have prevented the incident," the western Pacific-based 7th Fleet said in a statement.

After a damage assessment in Guam, the vessel will return to the US submarine base in Bremerton, Washington for repairs.

Last week the navy said the investigation showed that the submarine struck an uncharted "seamount" while patrolling below the surface.

Eleven sailors were injured in the accident. According to reports, the crash damaged the sub's forward ballast tanks, but its nuclear plant was not damaged.

The US Navy regularly conducts operations in the region to challenge China's disputed territorial claims on small islands, reefs and outcrops.

Aljilani was replaced by an interim commanding officer.

© 2021 AFP

NASA to deflect asteroid in test of 'planetary defense'

Issued on: 04/11/2021 -



This artist's illustration obtained from NASA shows the DART spacecraft prior to impact with the asteroid Dimorphos Handout NASA/AFP

Washington (AFP) – In the 1998 Hollywood blockbuster "Armageddon," Bruce Willis and Ben Affleck race to save the Earth from being pulverized by an asteroid.

While the Earth faces no such immediate danger, NASA plans to crash a spacecraft traveling at a speed of 15,000 miles per hour (24,000 kph) into an asteroid next year in a test of "planetary defense."

The Double Asteroid Redirection Test (DART) is to determine whether this is an effective way to deflect the course of an asteroid should one threaten the Earth in the future.

NASA provided details of the DART mission, which carries a price tag of $330 million, in a briefing for reporters on Thursday.

"Although there isn't a currently known asteroid that's on an impact course with the Earth, we do know that there is a large population of near-Earth asteroids out there," said Lindley Johnson, NASA's Planetary Defense Officer.

"The key to planetary defence is finding them well before they are an impact threat," Johnson said. "We don't want to be in a situation where an asteroid is headed towards Earth and then have to test this capability."

The DART spacecraft is scheduled to be launched aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket at 10:20 pm Pacific time on November 23 from Vandenberg Space Force Base in California.

If the launch takes place at or around that time, impact with the asteroid some 6.8 million miles from Earth would occur between September 26 and October 1 of next year.

The target asteroid, Dimorphos, which means "two forms" in Greek, is about 525 feet in diameter and orbits around a larger asteroid named Didymos, "twin" in Greek.

Johnson said that while neither asteroid poses a threat to Earth they are ideal candidates for the test because of the ability to observe them with ground-based telescopes.

Images will also be collected by a miniature camera-equipped satellite contributed by the Italian Space Agency that will be ejected by the DART spacecraft 10 days before impact.
'A small nudge'

Nancy Chabot of the Johns Hopkins Applied Physics Laboratory, which built the DART spacecraft, said Dimorphos completes an orbit around Didymos every 11 hours and 55 minutes "just like clockwork."

The DART spacecraft, which will weigh 1,210 pounds at the time of impact, will not "destroy" the asteroid, Chabot said.

"It's just going to give it a small nudge," she said. "It's going to deflect its path around the larger asteroid."

"It's only going to be a change of about one percent in that orbital period," Chabot said, "so what was 11 hours and 55 minutes before might be like 11 hours and 45 minutes."

The test is designed to help scientists understand how much momentum is needed to deflect an asteroid in the event one is headed towards Earth one day.

"We are targeting to be as nearly head on as possible to cause the biggest deflection," Chabot said.

The amount of deflection will depend to a certain extent on the composition of Dimorphos and scientists are not entirely certain how porous the asteroid is.

Dimorphos is the most common type of asteroid in space and is some 4.5 billion years old, Chabot said.

"It's like ordinary chondrite meteorites," she said. "It's a fine grain mixture of rock and metal together."

Johnson, NASA's Planetary Defense Officer, said more than 27,000 near-Earth asteroids have been catalogued but none currently pose a danger to the planet.

An asteroid discovered in 1999 known as Bennu that is 1,650 feet wide will pass within half the distance of the Earth to the Moon in the year 2135 but the probability of an impact is considered very slight.

© 2021 AFP

Workers Digging Gas Pipes In Peru Find 2,000-year-old Gravesite

By AFP News
11/04/21

Workers laying gas pipes on a street in the Peruvian capital Lima stumbled on the remains of a pre-Hispanic gravesite that included 2,000-year-old ceramic burial vessels, an archaeologist said Thursday.

A work crew laying a natural gas pipe under a street in Lima, Peru stumbled across a 2,000-year-old burial site, including the remains of six people and ceramic vessels Photo: AFP / Ernesto BENAVIDES

"This find that we see today is 2,000 years old," archaeologist Cecilia Camargo told AFP at the site.

"So far, there are six human bodies that we have recovered, including children and adults, accompanied by a set of ceramic vessels that were expressly made to bury them."

Specialists work around the ancient burial site found by a crew laying a natural gas pipe under a street in Lima, Peru on November 04, 2021 Photo: AFP / Ernesto BENAVIDES

Experts believe the site in the Lima district of La Victoria may be linked to the culture known as "Blanco sobre Rojo," or "White on Red," which settled on the central coast of Peru in the valleys of Chillon, Rimac and Lurin, the three rivers that cross Lima.

"So far, we have recovered about 40 vessels of different shapes related to the White on Red style," said Camargo, head of the cultural heritage department at the natural gas company Calidda.

"Some bottles are very distinctive of this period and style, which have a double spout and a bridge handle," Camargo said.

As finds of ancient artefacts and remains occur frequently in Peru, all public service companies that do excavations have in-house archaeologists, including Calidda, a Colombian-funded company that distributes natural gas in Lima and in the neighboring port of Callao.

END SANCTIONS AGAINST IRAN

A public suicide in Iran spotlights anguish over economy
By NASSER KARIMI

1 of 5

A street vendor waits for customer while selling shoes on the side of a highway in southwestern Tehran, Iran, Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2021. As U.S. sanctions and the coronavirus pandemic wreak havoc on Iran's economy, suicides in the country increased by over 4%, according to a government study cited by the reformist daily Etemad. About 1 million Iranians have lost their jobs, and unemployment has climbed over 10% — a rate that is nearly twice as big among youths. (AP Photo/Vahid Salemi)


TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Ruhollah Parazideh, a wiry 38-year-old with a thick mustache and hair flecked with gray, was desperate for a job. The father of three in southern Iran walked into a local office of a foundation that helps war veterans and their families, pleading for assistance.

Local media reported that Parazideh told officials he would throw himself off their roof if they couldn’t help. They tried to reason with him, promising a meager loan, but he left unsatisfied.

He soon returned to the gates of the building, poured gasoline over himself, and put a lit match to his neck. He died from his burns two days later, on Oct. 21.

Parazideh’s suicide in the city of Yasuj shocked many in Iran, and not just because he was the son of Golmohammad Parazideh, a prominent provincial hero of the country’s 1980-88 war with Iraq that left hundreds of thousands dead.

It put a spotlight on the rising public fury and frustration as Iran’s economy sinks, unemployment soars and the price of food skyrockets.




His death occurred outside the local office of the Foundation for Martyrs and War-Disabled People, a wealthy and powerful government agency that helps the families of those killed and wounded in Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution and subsequent wars.

“I was shocked when I heard the news,” said Mina Ahmadi, a student at Beheshti University north of Tehran. “I thought that the families of (war) victims enjoyed generous support from the government.”

Iran valorizes its war dead from the conflict with Iraq, known in Tehran as the “Sacred Defense,” and the foundation plays a big role in that. After the revolution installed the clerically run system, the foundation began providing pensions, loans, housing, education and even some high-ranking government jobs.

Following Parazideh’s suicide, the foundation fired two of its top provincial officials and demanded the dismissal of the governor’s veteran affairs adviser as well as a social worker, lambasting their failure to send the distressed man to a medical facility or others for help, local media reported.

The fallout reached the highest levels of government. Ayatollah Sharfeddin Malakhosseini, an adviser to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, called the case a warning that officials should “get rid of unemployment, poverty and the disruption of social ties.”

In 2014, parliament launched an investigation into one of the main banks affiliated with the foundation for allegedly embezzling $5 million. Its findings were never revealed.

The foundation is known to funnel financial support to Islamic militant organizations in the region, from Hezbollah in Lebanon to Hamas in Gaza, leading the U.S. to sanction it in 2007 for supporting terrorism.

Parazideh’s suicide was one of several in recent years that appear driven by economic hardships.

Self-immolations killed at least two other veterans and injured the wife of a disabled veteran outside branches of the foundation in Tehran, Kermanshah and Qom in recent years.

As the coronavirus pandemic wreaked economic havoc, suicides in Iran increased by over 4%, according to a government study cited by the reformist daily Etemad.

For many in the Middle East, the act of self-immolation — the protest used by a fruit vendor named Mohammed Bouazizi in Tunisia that became a catalyst for the 2011 Arab Spring uprisings — evokes broader discontent with economic woes and the lack of opportunity.

“I don’t know where we are headed because of poverty,” said Reza Hashemi, a literature teacher at a Tehran high school.

In 2018, then-President Donald Trump withdrew America from Tehran’s landmark nuclear agreement with world powers and brought back sanctions on Iran, pummeling an oil-dependent economy already hobbled by inefficiencies. The pandemic has aggravated the economic despair. About 1 million Iranians have lost their jobs, and unemployment has climbed over 10% — a rate that is nearly twice as big among youths.

Capital flight has soared to $30 billion, chasing away foreign investors.

Negotiations to revive the atomic accord stalled in the five months since hard-line President Ebrahim Raisi took office, allowing Tehran to press ahead with its nuclear program. On Wednesday, the European Union announced that talks between world powers and Iran on reviving the deal would resume Nov. 29 in Vienna. The announcement stoked modest hopes that the Biden administration can resuscitate the accord.

“It’s impossible to hide people’s discontent with the economy,” said Mohammad Qassim Osmani, an official at the Audit Organization Services, a government watchdog. “The structure of the country is faulty and sick. We need an economic revolution.”

Iran’s currency, the rial, has shriveled to less than 50% of its value since 2018. Wages haven’t grown to make up the loss, and the Labor Ministry reported that over a third of the population lives in extreme poverty.

“About 40 million people in the country need immediate and instant help,” said lawmaker Hamid Reza Hajbabaei, the head of the parliamentary budget committee, in a televised debate last week — referring to nearly half the population.

The deepening poverty goes beyond just numbers, becoming a visible part of daily life. On Tehran’s streets, more people are seen searching through garbage for something able to be sold. Children sell trinkets and tissues. Panhandlers beg for change at most intersections — a rare sight a decade ago.

Petty theft has surged, testing the already-tough justice system. Last week, a Tehran court sentenced a 45-year-old father of three to 10 months in prison and 40 lashes for pocketing a few packs of peanuts.

Gen. Ali Reza Lotfi, Tehran’s chief police detective, blamed the economy for the spike in crime, noting that over half of all detainees last year were first-time offenders.

It has fallen to Raisi to handle the economic pressures. He frequently repeats campaign promises to create 1 million jobs through construction and tourism projects.

But many low-wage workers, bearing the brunt of Iran’s crisis, have no hope.

Last month, in another case that drew huge attention, a 32-year-old teacher facing crushing debt hanged himself in the southern city of Guerash after a bank rejecting his request for a $200 loan.

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Associated Press writer Isabel DeBre in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, contributed to this report.

Globe bounces back to nearly 2019 carbon pollution levels
By SETH BORENSTEIN

 Smoke and steam rise from towers at the coal-fired Urumqi Thermal Power Plant in Urumqi in western China's Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region on April 21, 2021. Global carbon pollution this year has bounced back to almost 2019 levels, after a drop during pandemic lockdowns. A new study by climate scientists at Global Carbon Project finds that the world is on track to put 36.4 billion metric tons of invisible carbon dioxide. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein, File)


GLASGOW, Scotland (AP) — The dramatic drop in carbon dioxide emissions from the pandemic lockdown has pretty much disappeared in a puff of coal-fired smoke, much of it from China, a new scientific study found.

A group of scientists who track heat-trapping gases that cause climate change said the first nine months of this year put emissions a tad under 2019 levels. They estimate that in 2021 the world will have spewed 36.4 billion metric tons of carbon dioxide, compared to 36.7 billion metric tons two years ago.

At the height of the pandemic last year, emissions were down to 34.8 billion metric tons, so this year’s jump is 4.9%, according to updated calculations by Global Carbon Project.

While most countries went back to pre-pandemic trends, China’s pollution increase was mostly responsible for worldwide figures bouncing back to 2019 levels rather then dropping significantly below them, said study co-author Corinne LeQuere, a climate scientist at the University of East Anglia in the United Kingdom.

With 2020′s dramatically clean air in cities from India to Italy, some people may have hoped the world was on the right track in reducing carbon pollution, but scientists said that wasn’t the case.

“It’s not the pandemic that will make us turn the corner,” LeQuere said in an interview at the climate talks in Glasgow, where she and colleagues are presenting their results. “It’s the decisions that are being taken this week and next week. That’s what’s going to make us turn the corner. The pandemic is not changing the nature of our economy.”

If the world is going to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) since pre-industrial times, it has only 11 years left at current emission levels before it is too late, the paper said. The world has warmed 1.1 degrees Celsius (2 degrees Fahrenheit) since the late 1800s.

“What the carbon emissions numbers show is that emissions (correcting for the drop and recovery from COVID19) have basically flattened now. That’s the good news,” said Pennsylvania State University climate scientist Michael Mann, who wasn’t part of the report. “The bad news is that’s not enough. We need to start bringing (emissions) down.”

Emissions in China were 7% higher in 2021 when compared to 2019, the study said. By comparison, India’s emissions were only 3% higher. In contrast, the United States, the European Union and the rest of the world polluted less this year than in 2019.

LeQuere said China’s jump was mostly from burning coal and natural gas and was part of a massive economic stimulus to recover from the lockdown. In addition, she said, China’s lockdown ended far earlier than the rest of the world, so the country had longer to recover economically and pump more carbon into the air.

The “green recovery” that many nations have talked about in their stimulus packages take longer to show up in emission reductions because rebounding economies first use the energy mix they already had, LeQuere said.

The figures are based on data from governments on power use, travel, industrial output and other factors. Emissions this year averaged 115 metric tons of carbon dioxide going into the air every second.

Breakthrough Institute climate director Zeke Hausfather, who wasn’t part of the study, predicts that “there is a good chance that 2022 will set a new record for global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.”

For more AP climate coverage: https://apnews.com/hub/climate.

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Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter: @ borenbears.

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The Associated Press Health and Science Department receives support from the Howard Hughes Medical Institute’s Department of Science Education. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

AP PHOTOS: A slow motion burial awaits in volcano no-go zone

The Associated Press

Ash from a volcano, that continues to erupt, covers a house on the Canary island of La Palma, Spain, Monday, Nov. 1, 2021. Scientists estimate the volcano also has ejected over 10,000 million cubic meters of ash. The ash is jettisoned thousands of meters into the sky, but the heaviest, thickest particles eventually give way to gravity. They accumulate into banks that slowly cover doors, pour into windows, make rooftops sag. Some particles are so big that when they pummel a car roof or the fronds of a banana tree, it sounds like hail. (AP Photo/Emilio Morenatti)

By EMILIO MORENATTI and JOSEPH WILSON

November 4, 2021 GMT

CUMBRE VIEJA EXCLUSION ZONE, Canary Islands (AP) — A child’s swing. A fountain in a courtyard. A tray of glasses abandoned under the duress of escape. All will disappear as a blizzard of dark ash blows from a volcano on La Palma island and drifts to the ground inch by inch, foot by foot.

Inside the exclusion zone, there is destruction by lava as well as burial in a sepulcher of black snow. A living room furnished with a hammock sits empty in the final hours before an implacable tongue of molten rock crushes an entire house.

Whether the end comes from lava or from ash, homes and fields located below the Cumbre Vieja volcano face annihilation in slow motion.

Since the eruption started on Sept. 19, authorities have declared more than 20,000 acres (8,200 hectares) between the Cumbre Vieja volcano and the Atlantic Ocean off-limits. Only police, soldiers, and scientists are allowed to move freely in the exclusion zone, which cuts La Palma’s western shore in two.

The lush land previously approximated an earthly paradise for both residents and visitors. Spaniards and other Europeans spent vacations or retired here to be near the sea, while locals harvested banana trees in the semitropical warmth of Spain’s Canary Islands.

Now, evacuated residents line up in cars and trucks on the zone’s edge, awaiting permission to make escorted trips home to rescue their dearest possessions, or at least see their endangered properties.

Human time and geological time were brought into sync by the volcano. What once seemed a given — the land beneath people’s feet — becomes as fluid and unpredictable as the lives the eruption threw into tumult. The creep of the lava, the buildup of ash, are matched by the growing anguish of the men and women whose way of life is being erased.

Silence would reign in the exclusion zone if it weren’t for what residents have named “the beast.” The volcano’s constant roar makes conversation almost impossible, nearly drowns out both the barking of abandoned dogs and the murmur of a flock of pigeons circling the sky in search of a coop that no longer exists.

Another sound: families weeping as they are accompanied by police to witness their homes as they succumb. Lava flows have destroyed more than 1,000 houses in their paths.

The ash is jettisoned thousands of meters into the sky, but the heaviest, thickest particles eventually give way to gravity. They accumulate into banks that slowly cover doors, pour into windows, make rooftops sag. Some particles are so big that when they pummel a car roof or the fronds of a banana tree, it sounds like hail.

Entire houses, right up the chimney, whole forests, right up to the canopy, the ash erases the distinguishing features of the landscape.

“I can’t even recognize my home,” Cristina Vera said while weeping. “I can’t recognize anything around it. I don’t recognize my neighbors’ homes, not even the mountain. It has all changed so much that I don’t know where I am.”

The quick relocation of more than 7,000 people has prevented the loss of human life. At cemeteries, though, the occupants go through a second burial by ash, a burial that will wipe away the markers that note the place where they were put to rest.

Yet amid the apocalypse, there are moments for the sublime to emerge. The colors that remain gain in their brilliance against the new ebony backdrop.

A small shrub, shaken clean, becomes a luminous green globe, a sponge pulled from a coral reef, an orb from an alien world.