UPDATES
Lukashenko threatens EU with gas cutoff as border tensions riseThe authoritarian Belarusian leader is enraged that the EU is contemplating another round of sanctions.
Longtime Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko
| Pool photo by Shamil Zhumatov/AFP
BY JOHANNA TREECK
November 11, 2021
The European Union will not be intimidated by threats from Belarus, Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said Thursday, following Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko's warnings he could cut off gas transit if the bloc pushes ahead with more sanctions against his regime.
In addition to another round of EU sanctions, Poland closed one of the main border crossings with Belarus earlier this week. One of the remaining border points is reporting trucks have to wait more than 50 hours to cross.
"We should not be intimidated, of course, by Lukashenko's threats," Gentiloni told a news conference presenting the Commission's new economic forecasts.
Earlier in the day, according to Belarus' Belta news agency, Lukashenko said: "We provide heat to Europe, and they are threatening us with the border closure. What if we block natural gas transit? I would recommend the leadership of Poland, Lithuanians and other brainless folk to think hard."
Belarus is encouraging migrants to fly from the Middle East to Minsk, after which it is reportedly aiding access to the country's borders with EU countries. Polish authorities say several thousand people are camped in the damp birch forests marking the Polish-Belarusian border.
Migrants have made several efforts to push past the Polish border fence, which is protected by 15,000 troops, police and border guards. They have also been making efforts to cross into Latvia and Lithuania, with Lithuanian officials estimating about a thousand people are gathered on the border.
In a joint statement, Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian defense ministers on Thursday described “the security crisis unfolding on the Polish-Belarusian and Lithuanian-Belarusian border as very alarming.” They condemned the deliberate escalation by the Belarusian regime, “which is posing serious threats to European security.”
Lukashenko is retaliating against EU sanctions imposed against him and top allies for their brutal crackdown on pro-democracy supporters following last year's stolen presidential election.
Brussels and EU border countries have denounced Belarus' actions as hybrid warfare. The Commission is preparing another round of sanctions to force Minsk to stop channeling migrants toward the EU, which could be approved by next week.
"They have started to intimidate us with the fifth package [of sanctions]. With regard to this fifth package, the prime minister has been instructed to think of retaliatory measures," Lukashenko said on Thursday, adding that if Belarus sees the measures as "indigestible and unacceptable ... we will hit back."
It's unclear how Lukashenko would be able to turn off gas flowing from Russia to Poland on the Yamal pipeline, which is owned by Russia's Gazprom. Any such effort would have to be approved by Moscow.
The border crisis is prompting Belarus to cozy up to Russia, its sole remaining ally. The two countries already have a tight economic and security relationship. Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke earlier this week.
Two Russian Tu-160 nuclear-capable bombers rehearsed bombing runs in a training exercise over Belarus on Thursday. On Wednesday, Russia sent airplanes across Belarus in a sign of support for the country, Lukashenko said.
BY JOHANNA TREECK
November 11, 2021
The European Union will not be intimidated by threats from Belarus, Economy Commissioner Paolo Gentiloni said Thursday, following Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko's warnings he could cut off gas transit if the bloc pushes ahead with more sanctions against his regime.
In addition to another round of EU sanctions, Poland closed one of the main border crossings with Belarus earlier this week. One of the remaining border points is reporting trucks have to wait more than 50 hours to cross.
"We should not be intimidated, of course, by Lukashenko's threats," Gentiloni told a news conference presenting the Commission's new economic forecasts.
Earlier in the day, according to Belarus' Belta news agency, Lukashenko said: "We provide heat to Europe, and they are threatening us with the border closure. What if we block natural gas transit? I would recommend the leadership of Poland, Lithuanians and other brainless folk to think hard."
Belarus is encouraging migrants to fly from the Middle East to Minsk, after which it is reportedly aiding access to the country's borders with EU countries. Polish authorities say several thousand people are camped in the damp birch forests marking the Polish-Belarusian border.
Migrants have made several efforts to push past the Polish border fence, which is protected by 15,000 troops, police and border guards. They have also been making efforts to cross into Latvia and Lithuania, with Lithuanian officials estimating about a thousand people are gathered on the border.
In a joint statement, Estonian, Latvian and Lithuanian defense ministers on Thursday described “the security crisis unfolding on the Polish-Belarusian and Lithuanian-Belarusian border as very alarming.” They condemned the deliberate escalation by the Belarusian regime, “which is posing serious threats to European security.”
Lukashenko is retaliating against EU sanctions imposed against him and top allies for their brutal crackdown on pro-democracy supporters following last year's stolen presidential election.
Brussels and EU border countries have denounced Belarus' actions as hybrid warfare. The Commission is preparing another round of sanctions to force Minsk to stop channeling migrants toward the EU, which could be approved by next week.
"They have started to intimidate us with the fifth package [of sanctions]. With regard to this fifth package, the prime minister has been instructed to think of retaliatory measures," Lukashenko said on Thursday, adding that if Belarus sees the measures as "indigestible and unacceptable ... we will hit back."
It's unclear how Lukashenko would be able to turn off gas flowing from Russia to Poland on the Yamal pipeline, which is owned by Russia's Gazprom. Any such effort would have to be approved by Moscow.
The border crisis is prompting Belarus to cozy up to Russia, its sole remaining ally. The two countries already have a tight economic and security relationship. Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke earlier this week.
Two Russian Tu-160 nuclear-capable bombers rehearsed bombing runs in a training exercise over Belarus on Thursday. On Wednesday, Russia sent airplanes across Belarus in a sign of support for the country, Lukashenko said.
Russia, Western countries clash at UN over Belarus border crisis
Issued on: 11/11/2021
Text by: NEWS WIRES
Russia traded barbs with Western members of the U.N. Security Council on Thursday over a crisis on the border between Belarus and Poland, with Russia's deputy U.N. envoy suggesting his European colleagues have "masochist inclinations."
Estonia, France, Ireland, Norway, the United States and Britain raised the migrant crisis during a closed-door meeting of the 15-member body.
"We condemn the orchestrated instrumentalisation of human beings whose lives and wellbeing have been put in danger for political purposes by Belarus, with the objective of destabilising neighbouring countries and the European Union's external border and diverting attention away from its own increasing human rights violations," they said in a statement.
They described the Belarusian approach as "unacceptable," and accused President Alexander Lukashenko of becoming a threat to regional stability and called for a "strong international reaction" to hold Belarus accountable, pledging "to discuss further measures that we can take."
The EU says Belarus is encouraging thousands fleeing war-torn parts of the world to try to cross into Poland and other neighbouring countries to retaliate for EU sanctions.
Belarus has warned the crisis could escalate into a military confrontation, while Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia said Belarus posed a serious threat to European security.
Russia's deputy U.N. Ambassador, Dmitry Polyanskiy, told reporters ahead of the council meeting that he believed his Western council colleagues "have some kind of masochist inclinations because to raise this topic, which is a total shame for the EU, in front of us would be very brave."
When asked if Russia or Belarus were helping move the migrants to the Polish border, Polyanskiy said: "No, absolutely not." He added that not all problems needed to be tackled by the Security Council. Russia is a council veto-power so can shield Belarus from any possible attempts to impose U.N. sanctions.
Estonia, France, Ireland, Norway, the United States and Britain said: "We will remain united and determined to protect the EU against these hybrid operations by Belarusian authorities."
(REUTERS)
Russia traded barbs with Western members of the U.N. Security Council on Thursday over a crisis on the border between Belarus and Poland, with Russia's deputy U.N. envoy suggesting his European colleagues have "masochist inclinations."
Estonia, France, Ireland, Norway, the United States and Britain raised the migrant crisis during a closed-door meeting of the 15-member body.
"We condemn the orchestrated instrumentalisation of human beings whose lives and wellbeing have been put in danger for political purposes by Belarus, with the objective of destabilising neighbouring countries and the European Union's external border and diverting attention away from its own increasing human rights violations," they said in a statement.
They described the Belarusian approach as "unacceptable," and accused President Alexander Lukashenko of becoming a threat to regional stability and called for a "strong international reaction" to hold Belarus accountable, pledging "to discuss further measures that we can take."
The EU says Belarus is encouraging thousands fleeing war-torn parts of the world to try to cross into Poland and other neighbouring countries to retaliate for EU sanctions.
Belarus has warned the crisis could escalate into a military confrontation, while Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia said Belarus posed a serious threat to European security.
Russia's deputy U.N. Ambassador, Dmitry Polyanskiy, told reporters ahead of the council meeting that he believed his Western council colleagues "have some kind of masochist inclinations because to raise this topic, which is a total shame for the EU, in front of us would be very brave."
When asked if Russia or Belarus were helping move the migrants to the Polish border, Polyanskiy said: "No, absolutely not." He added that not all problems needed to be tackled by the Security Council. Russia is a council veto-power so can shield Belarus from any possible attempts to impose U.N. sanctions.
Estonia, France, Ireland, Norway, the United States and Britain said: "We will remain united and determined to protect the EU against these hybrid operations by Belarusian authorities."
(REUTERS)
EU values, laws under threat amid standoff at Belarus border
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FILE - Migrants from the Middle East and elsewhere warm up at the fire gathering at the Belarus-Poland border near Grodno, Belarus, Wednesday, Nov. 10, 2021. The migration crisis at the eastern frontiers of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia is fueling calls for the EU to finance the construction of something it never wanted to build: fences and walls at the border. (Leonid Shcheglov/BelTA via AP, File)
BRUSSELS (AP) — Fears that the authoritarian leader of Belarus is using migrants and refugees as a “hybrid warfare” tactic to undermine the security of the European Union are putting new strains on some of the values and laws in the 27-nation bloc.
The crisis at the eastern frontiers of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia is fueling calls for the EU to finance the construction of something it never wanted to build: fences and walls at the border.
And this idea was voiced this week at a ceremony commemorating the fall of one of Europe’s most notorious and historic barriers, the Berlin Wall.
The border crisis with Belarus has been simmering for months. Top EU officials say the longtime authoritarian leader of Belarus, President Alexander Lukashenko, is luring thousands of migrants and refugees to Minsk with the promise of help to get to western Europe.
Belarus denies it is using them as pawns, but the EU maintains Lukashenko is retaliating for sanctions it imposed on his regime after the president’s disputed election to a sixth term last year led to anti-government protests and a crackdown on internal dissent.
The crisis came to a head after large groups of asylum-seekers recently gathered at a border crossing with Belarus near the village of Kuznica, Poland. Warsaw bolstered security there, sending in riot police to turn back those who tried to cut through a razor-wire fence.
Polish lawmakers introduced a state of emergency and changed the country’s asylum laws. Only troops have access to the area, to the dismay of refugee agencies and Poland’s EU partners. Lithuania is taking similar measures and has begun extending its border fence.
The EU’s executive branch, the European Commission, believes walls and barriers are ineffective, and has so far resisted calls to fund them, although it will pay for infrastructure like surveillance cameras and equipment.
“We are facing a brutal, hybrid attack on our EU borders. Belarus is weaponizing migrants’ distress in a cynical and shocking way,” European Council President Charles Michel said at an event in Germany on Tuesday, the 32nd anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall.
“We have opened the debate on the EU financing of physical border infrastructure. This must be settled rapidly because Polish and Baltic borders are EU borders. One for all and all for one,” Michel said.
That approach, and other border tactics, are sowing dismay. Addressing EU lawmakers Wednesday, U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi called for European leadership and appealed to the bloc to avoid “a race to the bottom” on migration policy.
“These challenges simply do not justify the knee-jerk reaction we have seen in some places: the irresponsible xenophobic discourse; the walls and barbed wire; the violent pushbacks that include the beating of refugees and migrants, sometimes stripping them naked and dumping them in rivers, or leaving them to drown in seas; the attempts to evade asylum obligations by paying other states to take on one’s own responsibilities,” Grandi said.
“The European Union, a union based on rule of law, should and can do better,” he said.
About 8,000 migrants have entered from Belarus this year, and border guards have prevented about 28,000 attempted crossings, according to European Commission figures.
Monique Pariat, a senior commission home affairs official, said most are Iraqis or Syrians, flying to Minsk from Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Syria and the United Arab Emirates. They pay a lot of money to a state-owned tourist company, which goes “into Lukashenko’s pockets,” she said.
It’s the last thing Europeans want to see. The entry in 2015 of well over 1 million people, most fleeing conflict in the Middle East, sparked the EU’s most intractable political crisis. They are unable to agree on who should take responsibility for refugees and migrants and whether other EU countries should be obliged to help.
Greece and Italy were on the front line six years ago. Spain has received thousands of asylum-seekers in recent years. Now, it’s the turn of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.
Many in the West believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin supports Lukashenko in targeting Europe.
“They know very well that this is a subject that divides European Union member states. We must be very aware that it would be playing their game to bicker among ourselves,” Isabel Wiseler-Lima, a conservative EU lawmaker from Luxembourg, said.
At a summit late last month, leaders of the bloc ordered the commission “to propose any necessary changes to the EU’s legal framework and concrete measures underpinned by adequate financial support to ensure an immediate and appropriate response.”
A few weeks earlier, 12 member countries -– Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia -– had demanded that the European Commission bolster the rules governing Europe’s passport-free travel zone, known as the Schengen area.
They want “stronger border protection” and new tools to avoid the “grave consequences of overburdened migration and asylum systems and exhausted accommodation capacities” that might hurt public trust in the EU’s ability to act decisively.
The question is whether these tools would constitute “pushbacks” -– the denial of entry to people, often by force, without affording them any opportunity to apply for asylum – which are illegal under international refugee treaties and EU law.
EU officials and U.N. agencies already worry that Poland is denying access to its border area near Belarus, where thousands have been refused entry in circumstances that cannot be independently verified. Eight people have died in the border no man’s land.
The commission is also examining recent changes to Polish law on the right to asylum, “which seems in this case not to be assured,” spokesman Adalbert Jahnz said.
As tensions mount, security is tightening and old methods are again gaining favor.
Europe must protect its external borders, and time has proven that the only effective solution is physical barriers to secure European citizens against the mass arrival of illegal migrants,” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban wrote in a letter to the commission last week, seeking reimbursement for funds his government spent on its own border fences.
—-
Follow AP’s global migration coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/migration
BRUSSELS (AP) — Fears that the authoritarian leader of Belarus is using migrants and refugees as a “hybrid warfare” tactic to undermine the security of the European Union are putting new strains on some of the values and laws in the 27-nation bloc.
The crisis at the eastern frontiers of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia is fueling calls for the EU to finance the construction of something it never wanted to build: fences and walls at the border.
And this idea was voiced this week at a ceremony commemorating the fall of one of Europe’s most notorious and historic barriers, the Berlin Wall.
The border crisis with Belarus has been simmering for months. Top EU officials say the longtime authoritarian leader of Belarus, President Alexander Lukashenko, is luring thousands of migrants and refugees to Minsk with the promise of help to get to western Europe.
Belarus denies it is using them as pawns, but the EU maintains Lukashenko is retaliating for sanctions it imposed on his regime after the president’s disputed election to a sixth term last year led to anti-government protests and a crackdown on internal dissent.
The crisis came to a head after large groups of asylum-seekers recently gathered at a border crossing with Belarus near the village of Kuznica, Poland. Warsaw bolstered security there, sending in riot police to turn back those who tried to cut through a razor-wire fence.
Polish lawmakers introduced a state of emergency and changed the country’s asylum laws. Only troops have access to the area, to the dismay of refugee agencies and Poland’s EU partners. Lithuania is taking similar measures and has begun extending its border fence.
The EU’s executive branch, the European Commission, believes walls and barriers are ineffective, and has so far resisted calls to fund them, although it will pay for infrastructure like surveillance cameras and equipment.
“We are facing a brutal, hybrid attack on our EU borders. Belarus is weaponizing migrants’ distress in a cynical and shocking way,” European Council President Charles Michel said at an event in Germany on Tuesday, the 32nd anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall.
“We have opened the debate on the EU financing of physical border infrastructure. This must be settled rapidly because Polish and Baltic borders are EU borders. One for all and all for one,” Michel said.
That approach, and other border tactics, are sowing dismay. Addressing EU lawmakers Wednesday, U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi called for European leadership and appealed to the bloc to avoid “a race to the bottom” on migration policy.
“These challenges simply do not justify the knee-jerk reaction we have seen in some places: the irresponsible xenophobic discourse; the walls and barbed wire; the violent pushbacks that include the beating of refugees and migrants, sometimes stripping them naked and dumping them in rivers, or leaving them to drown in seas; the attempts to evade asylum obligations by paying other states to take on one’s own responsibilities,” Grandi said.
“The European Union, a union based on rule of law, should and can do better,” he said.
About 8,000 migrants have entered from Belarus this year, and border guards have prevented about 28,000 attempted crossings, according to European Commission figures.
Monique Pariat, a senior commission home affairs official, said most are Iraqis or Syrians, flying to Minsk from Lebanon, Jordan, Turkey, Syria and the United Arab Emirates. They pay a lot of money to a state-owned tourist company, which goes “into Lukashenko’s pockets,” she said.
It’s the last thing Europeans want to see. The entry in 2015 of well over 1 million people, most fleeing conflict in the Middle East, sparked the EU’s most intractable political crisis. They are unable to agree on who should take responsibility for refugees and migrants and whether other EU countries should be obliged to help.
Greece and Italy were on the front line six years ago. Spain has received thousands of asylum-seekers in recent years. Now, it’s the turn of Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.
Many in the West believe that Russian President Vladimir Putin supports Lukashenko in targeting Europe.
“They know very well that this is a subject that divides European Union member states. We must be very aware that it would be playing their game to bicker among ourselves,” Isabel Wiseler-Lima, a conservative EU lawmaker from Luxembourg, said.
At a summit late last month, leaders of the bloc ordered the commission “to propose any necessary changes to the EU’s legal framework and concrete measures underpinned by adequate financial support to ensure an immediate and appropriate response.”
A few weeks earlier, 12 member countries -– Austria, Bulgaria, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia -– had demanded that the European Commission bolster the rules governing Europe’s passport-free travel zone, known as the Schengen area.
They want “stronger border protection” and new tools to avoid the “grave consequences of overburdened migration and asylum systems and exhausted accommodation capacities” that might hurt public trust in the EU’s ability to act decisively.
The question is whether these tools would constitute “pushbacks” -– the denial of entry to people, often by force, without affording them any opportunity to apply for asylum – which are illegal under international refugee treaties and EU law.
EU officials and U.N. agencies already worry that Poland is denying access to its border area near Belarus, where thousands have been refused entry in circumstances that cannot be independently verified. Eight people have died in the border no man’s land.
The commission is also examining recent changes to Polish law on the right to asylum, “which seems in this case not to be assured,” spokesman Adalbert Jahnz said.
As tensions mount, security is tightening and old methods are again gaining favor.
Europe must protect its external borders, and time has proven that the only effective solution is physical barriers to secure European citizens against the mass arrival of illegal migrants,” Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban wrote in a letter to the commission last week, seeking reimbursement for funds his government spent on its own border fences.
—-
Follow AP’s global migration coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/migration
EXPLAINER: What’s behind the crisis at Belarus-Poland border
FILE - Migrants from the Middle East and elsewhere rest on the ground as they gather at the Belarus-Poland border near Grodno, Belarus, Monday, Nov. 8, 2021. Thousands of migrants flocked to Belarus' border with Poland hoping to get to Western Europe, an influx that prompted Polish authorities to introduce a state of emergency and deploy thousands of troops and police.
(Leonid Shcheglov/BelTA via AP, File)
Thousands of migrants and refugees have flocked to Belarus’ border with Poland, hoping to get to Western Europe, Many of them are now stranded at the frontier, setting up makeshift camps as Polish security forces watch them from behind a razor-wire fence and try to prevent them from entering the country. The European Union has accused the president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, of aiding illegal border crossings in retaliation for EU sanctions. Lukashenko denies encouraging migration to Europe.
A look at what led to the standoff:
WHAT IS BEHIND THE CRISIS?
Belarus was rocked by months of massive protests following the August 2020 election that gave authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko a sixth term in office. The opposition and the West rejected the result as a sham.
Belarusian authorities responded to the demonstrations with a fierce crackdown that saw more than 35,000 people arrested and thousands beaten by police.
The European Union and the U.S. reacted by imposing sanctions on Lukashenko’s government.
Those restrictions were toughened after an incident in May when a passenger jet flying from Greece to Lithuania was diverted by Belarus to Minsk, where authorities arrested dissident journalist Raman Pratasevich. The EU called it air piracy and barred Belarusian carriers from its skies and cut imports of the country’s top commodities, including petroleum products and potash, an ingredient in fertilizer.
A furious Lukashenko shot back by saying he would no longer abide by an agreement to stem illegal migration, arguing that the EU sanctions deprived his government of funds needed to contain flows of migrants. Planes carrying migrants from Iraq, Syria and other countries began arriving in Belarus, and they soon headed for the borders with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.
Pavel Latushka, a member of the Belarusian opposition, charged that state-controlled tourist agencies were involved in offering visa support to migrants and helping them drive to the border.
The EU accused Lukashenko of using the migrants as pawns in a “hybrid attack” against the 27-nation bloc in retaliation for the sanctions. Lukashenko denies encouraging the flow of migrants and said the EU is violating migrants’ rights by denying them safe passage.
WHAT HAS BEEN THE RESPONSE BY EU COUNTRIES?
During the summer, Lithuania introduced a state of emergency to deal with an influx of migrants and strengthen its border with Belarus. It set up tent camps to accommodate the growing number of migrants.
In previous months, small groups of asylum-seekers tried to sneak into Lithuania, Poland and Latvia at night, using forest paths away from populated areas. This week, much larger groups gathered openly at the Polish border, and some people used shovels and wire cutters to try to break through a razor-wire fence at Poland’s border.
Authorities in Warsaw estimated the crowds at about 3,000-4,000 and said they prevented hundreds of people from entering the country. Poland deployed riot police and other forces to bolster the border guards. Eight deaths have been confirmed at the Belarus-Poland border,, and temperatures have fallen below freezing at night.
The EU has made a strong show of solidarity with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. EU officials are expected to discuss another round of sanctions against Belarus, and European Council President Charles Michel said for the first time that the bloc would consider the possibility of financing “physical infrastructure” such as barriers or fences on the border.
Analysts say Lukashenko’s heavy-handed approach would likely backfire.
“Such brutal tactics would make Belarus toxic and delay the prospect of talks with the EU,” said Artyom Shraybman, a Belarusian political analyst who was forced to leave the country under pressure from authorities. “European politicians won’t engage in talks under pressure.”
Pavel Usau, head of the Center for Political Analysis and Prognosis based in Poland, also said Lukashenko is mistaken if he thinks he can force the EU into concessions.
“Lukashenko expects the EU to give in to pressure and ask Poland to let migrants cross into Germany,” Usau said. “But the EU realizes that doing so would allow Lukashenko to emerge as the winner and encourage him to continue to take further such steps, raising the number of migrants to tens of thousands.”
The Belarusian opposition has urged the EU to take even tougher measures, including a trade embargo and a ban on transit of cargo via Belarus.
WHAT IS RUSSIA’S ROLE?
Belarus has received strong support from its main ally, Russia, which has helped buttress Lukashenko’s government with loans and political support.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the migrants flows resulted from the U.S.-led wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and Western-backed Arab Spring uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa. He challenged the EU to offer financial assistance to Belarus to deal with the influx.
At the same time, the Kremlin angrily rejected Poland’s claim that Russia bears responsibility for the crisis.
Usau said Russia could step in as a mediator in the hope of improving ties with Germany and other EU nations.
WHAT COMES NEXT?
Belarus is estimated to host between 5,000 and 20,000 migrants and refugees from the Middle East and Africa. Many have run out of money and grown increasingly desperate as the winter approaches. Belarusian residents are uneasy about their presence, raising pressure on the authorities to act.
Some observers expect Lukashenko to escalate the crisis and pressure the EU to ease sanctions.
“As a minimum, Lukashenko wants to take revenge against the EU, and as a maximum he aims to soften the European sanctions that have dealt a painful blow to key Belarusian industries,” said independent analyst Valery Karbalevich. “Belarusian authorities have tried unsuccessfully to persuade the EU to engage in talks and bargaining, and migrants are just an instrument in a hybrid attack by Minsk.”
“Lukashenko has nothing to lose,” he added. “He’s no longer worried about his reputation.”
___
Associated Press writer Vladimir Isachenkov in Moscow contributed.
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Follow AP’s migration coverage at https://apnews.com/hub/migration
Thousands of migrants and refugees have flocked to Belarus’ border with Poland, hoping to get to Western Europe, Many of them are now stranded at the frontier, setting up makeshift camps as Polish security forces watch them from behind a razor-wire fence and try to prevent them from entering the country. The European Union has accused the president of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, of aiding illegal border crossings in retaliation for EU sanctions. Lukashenko denies encouraging migration to Europe.
A look at what led to the standoff:
WHAT IS BEHIND THE CRISIS?
Belarus was rocked by months of massive protests following the August 2020 election that gave authoritarian President Alexander Lukashenko a sixth term in office. The opposition and the West rejected the result as a sham.
Belarusian authorities responded to the demonstrations with a fierce crackdown that saw more than 35,000 people arrested and thousands beaten by police.
The European Union and the U.S. reacted by imposing sanctions on Lukashenko’s government.
Those restrictions were toughened after an incident in May when a passenger jet flying from Greece to Lithuania was diverted by Belarus to Minsk, where authorities arrested dissident journalist Raman Pratasevich. The EU called it air piracy and barred Belarusian carriers from its skies and cut imports of the country’s top commodities, including petroleum products and potash, an ingredient in fertilizer.
A furious Lukashenko shot back by saying he would no longer abide by an agreement to stem illegal migration, arguing that the EU sanctions deprived his government of funds needed to contain flows of migrants. Planes carrying migrants from Iraq, Syria and other countries began arriving in Belarus, and they soon headed for the borders with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia.
Pavel Latushka, a member of the Belarusian opposition, charged that state-controlled tourist agencies were involved in offering visa support to migrants and helping them drive to the border.
The EU accused Lukashenko of using the migrants as pawns in a “hybrid attack” against the 27-nation bloc in retaliation for the sanctions. Lukashenko denies encouraging the flow of migrants and said the EU is violating migrants’ rights by denying them safe passage.
WHAT HAS BEEN THE RESPONSE BY EU COUNTRIES?
During the summer, Lithuania introduced a state of emergency to deal with an influx of migrants and strengthen its border with Belarus. It set up tent camps to accommodate the growing number of migrants.
In previous months, small groups of asylum-seekers tried to sneak into Lithuania, Poland and Latvia at night, using forest paths away from populated areas. This week, much larger groups gathered openly at the Polish border, and some people used shovels and wire cutters to try to break through a razor-wire fence at Poland’s border.
Authorities in Warsaw estimated the crowds at about 3,000-4,000 and said they prevented hundreds of people from entering the country. Poland deployed riot police and other forces to bolster the border guards. Eight deaths have been confirmed at the Belarus-Poland border,, and temperatures have fallen below freezing at night.
The EU has made a strong show of solidarity with Poland, Lithuania and Latvia. EU officials are expected to discuss another round of sanctions against Belarus, and European Council President Charles Michel said for the first time that the bloc would consider the possibility of financing “physical infrastructure” such as barriers or fences on the border.
Analysts say Lukashenko’s heavy-handed approach would likely backfire.
“Such brutal tactics would make Belarus toxic and delay the prospect of talks with the EU,” said Artyom Shraybman, a Belarusian political analyst who was forced to leave the country under pressure from authorities. “European politicians won’t engage in talks under pressure.”
Pavel Usau, head of the Center for Political Analysis and Prognosis based in Poland, also said Lukashenko is mistaken if he thinks he can force the EU into concessions.
“Lukashenko expects the EU to give in to pressure and ask Poland to let migrants cross into Germany,” Usau said. “But the EU realizes that doing so would allow Lukashenko to emerge as the winner and encourage him to continue to take further such steps, raising the number of migrants to tens of thousands.”
The Belarusian opposition has urged the EU to take even tougher measures, including a trade embargo and a ban on transit of cargo via Belarus.
WHAT IS RUSSIA’S ROLE?
Belarus has received strong support from its main ally, Russia, which has helped buttress Lukashenko’s government with loans and political support.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov said the migrants flows resulted from the U.S.-led wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and Western-backed Arab Spring uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa. He challenged the EU to offer financial assistance to Belarus to deal with the influx.
At the same time, the Kremlin angrily rejected Poland’s claim that Russia bears responsibility for the crisis.
Usau said Russia could step in as a mediator in the hope of improving ties with Germany and other EU nations.
WHAT COMES NEXT?
Belarus is estimated to host between 5,000 and 20,000 migrants and refugees from the Middle East and Africa. Many have run out of money and grown increasingly desperate as the winter approaches. Belarusian residents are uneasy about their presence, raising pressure on the authorities to act.
Some observers expect Lukashenko to escalate the crisis and pressure the EU to ease sanctions.
“As a minimum, Lukashenko wants to take revenge against the EU, and as a maximum he aims to soften the European sanctions that have dealt a painful blow to key Belarusian industries,” said independent analyst Valery Karbalevich. “Belarusian authorities have tried unsuccessfully to persuade the EU to engage in talks and bargaining, and migrants are just an instrument in a hybrid attack by Minsk.”
“Lukashenko has nothing to lose,” he added. “He’s no longer worried about his reputation.”
___
Associated Press writer Vladimir Isachenkov in Moscow contributed.
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