mRNA vaccines will not change your DNA – debunking Doug Corrigan

SKEPTICAL RAPTOR
Science of vaccines, cancer, nutrition, evolution

POSTED ON2021-12-12 BY THE ORIGINAL SKEPTICAL RAPTOR

LONG READ

There are so many quacks coming out of the woodwork to push pseudoscience about mRNA vaccines – now, Dr. Doug Corrigan, Ph.D., uses science pseudoscience to “prove” that the mRNA vaccines for COVID-19 are going to mess with your DNA. He’s wrong and let’s tell you why.

COVID-19 vaccine facts and myths – UPDATED info about the new vaccines


Contents [hide]
1 What are mRNA vaccines?
2 Will the mRNA vaccine change my DNA?
3 What is Doug Corrigan claiming?
4 Summary
4.1 Related

What are mRNA vaccines?

I’ve written this several times with regards to both the Pfizer and Modern mRNA vaccines, but it bears repeating, because a lot of people may come to this article for the first time.


The Pfizer and Moderna Therapeutics COVID-19 vaccines are mRNA vaccines that rely upon an mRNA, or messenger RNA, molecule to induce an immune response. However, it does not do this directly.

Normally, during the process called transcription, RNA polymerase makes a copy of a gene from its DNA to mRNA as signaled by the cell. In other words, the mRNA sequences in the cell usually correspond directly to the DNA sequences in our genes. These mRNA sequences “carry” that genetic message to a ribosome for translation, where tRNA triplets, which code for one amino acid, attach to the appropriate mRNA triplet, adding one amino acid to the protein chain.


As in DNA, genetic information in mRNA is contained in the sequence of nucleotides, which are arranged into codons consisting of three ribonucleotides each. Each codon codes for a specific amino acid, except the stop codons, which terminate protein synthesis.

At this point, note that the mRNA does nothing to the DNA strand in your genes – it merely reads the sequence.

Yes, that’s a lot of cell biology, though I took years of courses in cell biology, so trust me when I say I barely touched the surface. If you want to take a deep dive into the science of mRNA and mRNA vaccines, my friend Edward Nirenberg wrote two articles that will satisfy your desires – they really make it clear how this all works and doesn’t work.


However, here’s a basic video that shows how this works.

Alan McHughen, in his outstanding book, “DNA Demystified: Unraveling the Double Helix,” describes how mRNA works:

When an mRNA strand exits the nucleus and enters the cytoplasm, it attaches to ribosomes, and this is where protein synthesis progresses. The ribosome reads the base sequence of the mRNA, three bases at a time. Each three-base triplet, called a codon, specifies a particular amino acid, except for a few with regulatory functions (e.g., UGA =“Stop!”).

If the first three-base codon is AUG, then a molecule of the amino acid methionine is brought into place. If the next triplet is AAA, that brings in the amino acid lysine. The methionine and lysine molecules are attached together. The next triplet is, say, GCC, and that brings in alanine, which is attached to the lysine. The ribosome has read nine bases, AUGAAAGCC, and compiled a short chain of three amino acids, abbreviated Met-Lys-Ala, or MKA (see amino acid abbreviations here).

The ribosome continues reading all of the mRNA bases until it hits a stop signal—which is also a triplet codon such as UGA—and the now long chain of amino acids falls loose. This chain may be a functional protein immediately, or, more usually, it might undergo some additional post-translational processing by enzymes to become active.




Once the mRNA has created a number of the proteins (in this case, the S-protein), that mRNA molecule is then ripped apart by enzymes in the cell, so that the individual RNA nucleotides can go back to being reused in a whole new mRNA sequence. The cellular machinery of translating DNA into proteins is constantly recirculating itself.



The mRNA vaccine technology relies upon a specific mRNA sequence to kickstart the endogenous production of proteins that are structurally equivalent to the viral antigens. The mRNA sequences in the vaccine enter the cell (with a carrier protein), heads to the ribosomes to create the SARS-CoV-2 antigens. These antigens will depart the cell and will trigger the body’s adaptive immune system to produce antibodies effective against the actual target, in this case, the S-protein or spike on the SARS-CoV-2 virus.


One more thing – the antigens produced by these mRNA sequences are biologically inert. They will induce an immune response, but they will not cause any other biological effect including becoming pathogenic.

So, let’s summarize. The mRNA vaccines make use of the cell’s ribosome to create the S-protein of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. That antigen induces an adaptive immune system response that will “remember” that antigen allowing the immune system to quickly attack the virus if it shows up.

Someone used this analogy to describe how mRNA works. Let’s say you have a book that represents the genetic code (lots of people describe our genetic code as the official manual of our person). You then scan that book in a copy machine, and now you have a bunch of papers that are an image of the original book. The copy does not change the original book. It can’t.


And mRNA cannot change your DNA.

DNA Genotyping and Sequencing. Technician loads robot for genetic studies of the human papillomavirus (HPV) at the Cancer Genomics Research Laboratory, part of the National Cancer Institute’s Division of Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics (DCEG).

Will the mRNA vaccine change my DNA?

If you spent one minute reading the above section, you’d know that the answer is no.


You should have noticed that the mRNA molecule merely reads the DNA information and carries it to the ribosome. It does not change the DNA message in any way, it’s not how the whole process of translation works.

Furthermore, the mRNA from the mRNA vaccines don’t interact with your DNA in any way. They cause the ribosome to produce the S-protein antigen, and that’s it. Once precisely one copy of the molecule of S-protein is produced at the ribosome from one strand of mRNA from the vaccine, that mRNA strand is broken down into individual nucleotides to be reused by the cell. And in case you were wondering, RNA nucleotides are the same whether they’re manufactured by cells or in a test tube. They are molecularly exactly alike.

Repeating this over and over, so everyone gets it.

If mRNA could functionally change the DNA, it would open up a whole world of genetic medicine. We could fix all kinds of genetic diseases with this mechanism.

But that’s not how mRNA works, so we can’t.

There are actually other reasons why these mRNA vaccines are not going to affect your DNA:

Your cells’ genome (DNA) is contained within the nucleus of the cell, which is surrounded by a double-membrane. It allows for large molecules, such as mRNA which has read the DNA, to leave the nucleus, but blocks large molecules from entering it. So the S-protein mRNA from the vaccine will not enter the nucleus until it is broken down into individual nucleotides, at which point, they are exactly the same as all of the other nucleotides.
Even if the mRNA molecule could affect the DNA and even if it could get into the nucleus, there are all kinds of error correction machinery in our DNA to keep out random bits of code. With trillions of cells in each human, each containing billions of DNA base pairs, there are naturally a lot of errors that could kill a human if the quality control machinery of the DNA didn’t keep close watch over errors.
Similarly, this mRNA cannot get into the mitochondria (which have their own DNA) and cause damage to its DNA. Even though the mitochondrion lacks a cell nucleus, it does have its own ribosomes and genes, and they would react to the S-protein mRNA in the same ways as the cell – it would not change its DNA.
What is Doug Corrigan claiming?

First, we should ask who is Doug Corrigan? Well, he states that his educational background is:



I have a Ph.D. in Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, a master’s in Engineering Physics (concentration: Solid State Physics), and a bachelor’s in Engineering Physics (concentration: electrical engineering.)

Now those of you who know me understand that I don’t care about credentials. I could be a janitor, and as long as I use verified, reliable, and published evidence, that’s all you need. I discussed with Orac a few weeks ago, where he stated that he uses the Orac nom de blog because he wanted to make his points irrespective of his education and training as a surgical oncologist.

Doug Corrigan may have these advanced degrees, but we have examples of a Nobel Prize winner Linus Pauling who pushed the pseudoscience of vitamin C. Or a biochemistry professor at a respected university, Michael Behe, who denies evolution and pushes creationism.


Just because one has impressive credentials could mean they know what they’re writing about, or they’re pushing junk science. But I’m not convinced of Corrigan’s list of what he has done. A search of PubMed shows that Doug Corrigan has published zero articles – given what he claims about himself, I’m curious as to why zero peer-reviewed articles are published with him as an author. He doesn’t even have a third or fourth author article.

Generally, but not always, a Ph.D. candidate will publish at least one, but usually more, article based on their research. Some even publish parts of their Ph.D. thesis. But we’ve got nothing from Doug Corrigan, unless “Doug Corrigan” is a fake name and he published under another name!

One last thing – he seems to push some extremist religious nonsense about science including a claim that a god left his/her signature in science. Much of what he writes is right out of the creationist playbook.


Finally, Doug Corrigan is a fan of genocidal herd immunity, the one that avoids vaccines, but lets millions of people die. I get the impression that he is anti-vaccine, at least anti-coronavirus vaccine. And he pushes that “boost your immune system” quackery that I’ve thoroughly debunked in the past.

Enough with Doug Corrigan’s background. So what is he claiming about the mRNA vaccines?


Let’s just quote what he writes:

It is well known that RNA can be “reverse transcribed” into DNA. Residing in our cells are enzymes called “reverse transcriptases”. These enzymes convert RNA into DNA. Multiple sources for this class of enzymes exist within our cells. These reverse transcriptases are normally made by other viruses termed “retroviruses”. HIV is a retrovirus and so is Hepatitis B, but there are many other retroviruses that fall in this category. In addition to these external viruses, there are viruses that are hard-wired into our genomic DNA called endogenous retroviruses (ERVs). These ERVs harbor instructions to produce reverse transcriptase. In addition to ERVs, there are mobile genetic elements residing in our DNA called LTR-retrotransposons that also encode for reverse transcriptase enzymes. To top it all off, reverse transcriptase is naturally used by our cells to extend the telomeres at the end of chromosomes.


Corrigan is discussing one way that RNA could change genes, and that’s through an enzyme called reverse transcriptase, which generates complementary DNA (cDNA) from a viral RNA template. However, reverse transcriptase does not exist in humans except in the presence of retroviruses like HIV. In that case, it’s using its own viral RNA template, not just pulling random mRNA out of the cell. It wants the cell to produce a bunch of new retroviruses by hijacking the DNA.


The SARS-CoV-2 virus is not a retrovirus, so this will not be an issue. But even beyond that, the vaccine does not contain reverse transcriptase, so the mRNA chains in the vaccine are not going to do anything to your DNA through this process.

Now, Corrigan is claiming that there are “endogenous retroviruses” that are hardwired into our DNA. That is true – about 8% of the human DNA comes from viruses during our long evolutionary past. In other words, retroviruses added genes that conferred some evolutionary advantage to humans and so were kept around. It’s a fascinating subject in evolution.

But let’s be clear – there is no evidence that the reverse transcriptase enzyme has been hard-wired into our DNA. Corrigan is trying to convince us that the endogenous retroviruses are fully capable of producing reverse transcriptase. What he fails to understand is that only some genes from retroviruses are incorporated into our DNA, not a whole virus. I could find no evidence of reverse transcriptase running wild in the cell nucleus.


Furthermore, the COVID-19 vaccine mRNA stays in the cytoplasm of the cell – as I stated above, mRNA molecules cannot enter the nucleus of the cell, where the DNA exists. So even if the reverse transcriptase enzyme existed in the nucleus of a human, the mRNA could not get there. Furthermore, even if there were reverse transcriptase enzymes and even if they could get into the nucleus, all it would do is cause our cells to produce S-protein, which will not affect human physiology.

But let’s be clear, none of this is happening. Full stop.

I am trying to figure out why Doug Corrigan thinks that reverse transcriptase actually exists in normal human cells that aren’t infected by hepatitis B or HIV (the most common viruses that produce reverse transcriptase, but they don’t leave behind the enzyme, they use it to take over a cell to replicate). Corrigan does not refer to published research nor does he link to outside reliable blogs or websites that might explain this hypothesis about reverse transcriptase. I did the work for him, because I’m not a lazy writer, and I found no one claiming that there is endogenous reverse transcriptase running around our cells (outside the aforementioned infectious viruses that produce the enzyme to hijack the cell).



Summary

This is one of the myths that will circulate through the anti-vaxxer community. And everyone will say “look, Doug Corrigan has a Ph.D., so he knows what he’s talking about.” And using confirmation bias, they will ignore all of the other researchers who don’t make these claims.


I have my concerns about the mRNA vaccines, but it has nothing to do with safety and certainly nothing to do with changes in the DNA. I think these vaccines are extraordinarily safe, short- and long-term. However, I don’t think we’ve had adequate time to establish long-term effectiveness, but I’m sure my concerns about that will be allayed as we get more data.

But right now, there is simply no evidence that the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines will have any effect on human DNA. These claims lack biological plausibility along with any published evidence.

Doug Corrigan’s claims have no merit and are pure pseudoscience.

____________________________________________

An mRNA vaccine against HIV shows promise in animal trials
By Robert Preidt & Ernie Mundell, HealthDay News

Experiments in mice and rhesus monkeys showed that the vaccine triggered antibody and cellular immune responses against an HIV-like virus. Photo by Adam Gregor/Shutterstock

Cutting-edge mRNA technology brought safe, effective COVID-19 vaccines to a world in crisis -- could it do the same for a much older foe, HIV?

An experimental HIV vaccine that uses the same mRNA platform technology as the Pfizer and Moderna COVID-19 vaccines shows promise in animals, a new U.S. government-led study finds

"Despite nearly four decades of effort by the global research community, an effective vaccine to prevent HIV remains an elusive goal," said Dr. Anthony Fauci. Besides being the nation's leading adviser on infectious disease, he also directs the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), where the new research was conducted.

Speaking in a NIAID news release, Fauci said, "this experimental mRNA vaccine combines several features that may overcome shortcomings of other experimental HIV vaccines and thus represents a promising approach," He was also a co-author on the study.

An expert in infectious disease unconnected to the new research was similarly optimistic.

"These are promising results," said Dr. Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in Baltimore.

He believes that mRNA-based strategies will have "several uses outside of COVID-19, where they made their clinical debut. An HIV vaccine has been elusive, however, the study shows proof of concept in an animal that it may be possible using this technology."

RELATED Biden unveils strategy to end HIV/AIDS epidemic in U.S. by 2030

In the NIAID study, experiments in mice and rhesus monkeys showed that the vaccine triggered antibody and cellular immune responses against an HIV-like virus.

In the monkeys, those who received a primer vaccine followed by multiple booster shots over the course of a year had a 79% lower per-exposure risk of infection by simian-human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV) than unvaccinated monkeys. The study was published Dec. 9 in the journal Nature Medicine.

SHIV was used in the research because non-human primates are not susceptible to the HIV-1 virus that infects humans, the researchers explained.

The vaccine carries mRNA instructions for making two key HIV proteins, Env and Gag. Muscle cells use the proteins to produce virus-like particles (VLPs) with numerous copies of Env on their surface, which then trigger an immune response, according to the investigators

The VLPs cannot cause infection or disease on their own, because they lack the complete genetic code of HIV, the study authors stressed.

In studies involving mice, "two injections of the VLP-forming mRNA vaccine induced neutralizing antibodies in all animals," according to the NIAID release. Importantly, the Env proteins generated in the mice looked very similar to those seen in whole virus, much more so than was seen in prior attempts to produce an effective HIV vaccine, the research team said.

This "closely mimics natural infection and may have played a role in eliciting the desired immune responses," study leader Dr. Paolo Lusso, of NIAID's Laboratory of Immunoregulation, said in the release.

In experiments involving rhesus macaques, monkeys first received a dose of vaccine and then subsequent booster doses over the following year. According to NIAID, "the vaccine was well-tolerated [by the monkeys] and produced only mild, temporary adverse effects in the macaques, such as loss of appetite."

Just over 14 months after the initial shot, "all vaccinated macaques had developed measurable levels of neutralizing antibodies directed against most strains in a test panel of 12 diverse HIV strains," according to the release. Beyond the promising boost in antibody levels, inoculation also appeared to strengthen the monkeys' T-cell activity against SHIV -- T-cells are another key component of the immune response.

More work remains, however, and science that appears to work in animal studies doesn't always pan out in humans.

"We are now refining our vaccine protocol to improve the quality and quantity of the VLPs produced," Lusso added. "This may further increase vaccine efficacy and thus lower the number of prime and boost inoculations needed to produce a robust immune response. If confirmed safe and effective, we plan to conduct a Phase 1 trial of this vaccine platform in healthy adult volunteers."

More information

There's more on HIV vaccines at HIVinfo.NIH.gov.

Copyright © 2021 HealthDay. All rights reserved.

Crews search rubble after 6 die at Illinois Amazon facility

By SOPHIA TAREEN

1 of 7

This Saturday, Dec. 11, 2021, satellite photo provided by Maxar shows a close-up of an Amazon warehouse in Edwardsville, Ill., after severe storms moved through the area late the previous evening, causing catastrophic damage. (Satellite image ©2021 Maxar Technologies via AP)

CHICAGO (AP) — Search efforts at an Amazon facility in Illinois where at least six people were killed in a tornado were expected to take several days, but authorities said they did not expect to find additional survivors.

The company has not said how many people were in the building not far from St. Louis when the tornado hit at 8:35 p.m. Friday — part of a swarm of twisters across the Midwest and the South that leveled entire communities. Authorities said they didn’t have a full count of employees because it was during a shift change and there were several part-time employees.

Both sides of the warehouse used to prepare orders for delivery collapsed inward and the roof caved, according to Edwardsville Fire Chief James Whiteford. Authorities received reports of workers being trapped and the fire unit arrived within six minutes, Whiteford said. Police helped pull people from the rubble. While 45 employees survived, six people were killed and a seventh person was airlifted to a hospital.

Whiteford said crews would search the rubble for several days.

Madison County Coroner Stephen Nonn on Sunday identified the six people who were killed. Four were from Illinois: 26-year-old Austin J. McEwen of Edwardsville, 29-year-old Clayton Lynn Cope of Alton, 46-year-old Larry E. Virden of Collinsville and 62-year-old Kevin D. Dickey of Carlyle. Two others — 28-year-old Deandre S. Morrow and 34-year-old Etheria S. Hebb — were from St. Louis.

Cope’s younger sister, Rachel Cope, said her brother had worked for Amazon for over a year and served in the Navy. He was also an avid motorcycle rider, lover of video games and his dog, Draco.

“He would go out of his way for anyone,” she told The Associated Press in a written message.

Nonn’s said Sunday there were no pending reports of missing people related to the building collapse.

“Search efforts continue to ensure that there are no additional victims,” he said in a statement.

The damage to the building was extensive; the structure’s steel support pillars were exposed after the walls and roof caved.

“These walls are made out of 11-inch thick concrete, and they’re about 40 feet tall, so a lot of weight from that came down,” Whiteford said at a Saturday news conference.

Employee Amanda Goss had just started her first week in a new job as an Amazon delivery driver when the tornado hit.

“As I look up, the corner of the building was shaking, and it comes down the garage area and then I felt the gates coming in behind me,” Goss told KTVI-TV. “All I do is sit there in my van hoping it don’t move.”

The Amazon facility, among three in Edwardsville, is a 1.1 million square foot (102,193 square meter) “delivery station” that employs about 190 workers across several shifts, according to Amazon. The facility, which opened in July 2020, prepares orders for “last-mile delivery” to customers. Edwardsville is about 25 miles (40 kilometers) northeast of St. Louis.

“Our thoughts and prayers are with the victims, their loved ones, and everyone impacted by the tornado,” Amazon spokesperson Kelly Nantel said in a statement. “We’re continuing to support our employees and partners in the area.”

Amazon said that when a site is made aware of a tornado warning, all employees are notified and directed to move to a shelter.

But company officials declined to answer specific questions about when employees were warned.

A union representing retail employees that has pushed to organize Amazon employees blasted the company for “dangerous labor practices” for having employees work during the severe weather.

“Time and time again Amazon puts its bottom line above the lives of its employees,” Stuart Appelbaum, President of the Retail, Wholesale and Department Store Union Requiring, said in a statement. “Requiring workers to work through such a major tornado warning event as this was inexcusable.”
_____

Follow Sophia Tareen on Twitter: https://twitter.com/sophiatareen.

Planning questions emerge at tornado-destroyed candle plant

By DYLAN LOVAN and MATT O'BRIEN

1 of 6

Tamara Yekinni hugs a friend outside a shelter in Wingo, Ky., on Sunday, Dec. 12, 2021, after residents were displaced by a tornado that caused severe damage in the area. Yekinni is an employee at a candle factory where employees were killed and injured by the storm. (AP Photo/Robert Bumsted)

MAYFIELD, Ky. (AP) — The Mayfield Consumer Products factory was the third-biggest employer in this corner of western Kentucky, an important economic engine that churned out candles that lined the shelves of malls around the U.S.

But why its workers kept making candles Friday night as a tornado bore down on the region remains unclear as rescuers continue scouring the factory wreckage for signs of life.

Kentucky’s governor said Sunday the ferocity of the storm was so great that there was nowhere safe to hide inside the plant.

“It appears most were sheltering in the place they were told to shelter,” Gov. Andy Beshear said. “I hope that area was as safe as it could be, but this thing got hit directly by the strongest tornado we could have possibly imagined.”

Of the 110 workers overnight Friday, Beshear said early Sunday that only 40 were rescued and it would be a miracle if any more were found alive. He said later on Sunday that it might be a “better situation” than initially feared as the state works to verify a worker headcount provided by the factory.

Some workers said they had been told to huddle in a central hallway area, the strongest part of the building, as the storm approached.

“That’s where everybody is supposed to go,” said Autumn Kirks, who worked at the plant with her boyfriend, who is still missing. “We stopped everything and tried to get as sheltered as we could.”

Kirks said an earlier weather warning siren during her shift prompted some workers to leave for the night.

“I know a lot of the workers left. We thought about it but decided against it,” she said.

The factory where she and her boyfriend worked employs many people in and around Mayfield, a city of about 10,000 in Kentucky’s southwest corner. It is Graves County’s third-biggest employer, according to the county’s website. Even some inmates at the county jail have worked there.

Scented candles made in the plant eventually found their way onto the shelves of prominent retailers like Bath & Body Works. The Ohio retailer said in a statement it was “devastated by the horrible loss of life at the Mayfield Consumer Products factory – a long-standing partner of ours.”

And this was high season in Mayfield for turning out gift candles as Christmas approaches. Shortly before the disaster, the company had posted on Facebook that it was looking to hire more people for 10- to 12-hour shifts involving fast-paced work and mandatory overtime.

Most American candle-makers used to complete their holiday orders by early November, but labor shortages and other economic trends tied to the COVID-19 pandemic have extended crunch time well into December, said Kathy LaVanier, CEO of Ohio-based Renegade Candle Company and a board member at the National Candle Association.

LaVanier said candle-makers around the U.S. are horrified by what happened in Kentucky and are trying to find ways to help. Unlike many manufactured products, most candles sold in the U.S. are American-made, in part thanks to hefty and longstanding tariffs on Chinese-made candles.

“All of us in the candle business are reeling,” she said. “It could have been any of us.”

LaVanier said regular disaster drills are important at candle plants, especially to include temporary workers who might have just arrived to fill a demand surge. But the way they are built — rarely with basements, and structured to accommodate long manufacturing lines — makes it hard to avoid damage when a truly devastating storm hits.

“If we had enough advance notice and felt it was severe enough you might send people home,” she said.

Bryanna Travis, 19, and Jarred Holmes, 20, stood vigil near the rubble of the Mayfield candle factory Saturday where they had worked for months, usually for about $14.50 an hour. The engaged couple wasn’t working when the storm hit.

“I worked with these people. I talked to these people. I tried to build connections with these people. And I don’t know if one of my friends is gone,” Holmes said.

Holmes said there had been no drills during their time at the factory to prepare people in case of a storm.

“We haven’t had one since we’ve been there,” he said.

Search are rescue crews work at the Mayfield Consumer Products candle factory early Sunday, Dec. 12, 2021 in Mayfield, Ky. Tornadoes and severe weather caused catastrophic damage across multiple states Friday, killing several people overnight. (Ryan C. Hermens/Lexington Herald-Leader via AP)

Executives at Mayfield Consumer Products didn’t respond to requests for comment Sunday. The company said in a statement on its website that it had started an emergency fund to help employees and their families. The company was founded in 1998 and split off from another firm several years ago.

“We’re heartbroken about this, and our immediate efforts are to assist those affected by this terrible disaster,” CEO Troy Propes said in the statement. “Our company is family-owned and our employees, some who have worked with us for many years, are cherished.”

Kentucky’s state safety and health agency website lists a series of 12 safety violations at the factory in 2019, though it doesn’t say what they were for.

Beshear told CNN on Sunday that his understanding was that it did have an emergency plan.

“We believe most of the workers got to what is supposed to be the safest place in the facility,” he sad. “But when you see the damage that this storm did not just there but across the area, I’m not sure there was a plan that would have worked.”

—-

O’Brien reported from Providence, Rhode Island. AP writer Bruce Schreiner contributed to this report.

In ruins of Kentucky factory, hope for improbable 'miracle'



The site of the MCP candle factory in Mayfield, Kentucky 

that was destroyed by a tornado (AFP/John Amis)


Cyril JULIEN
Sun, December 12, 2021

It was a banal industrial building, low, wide and largely unexceptional, with a few windows and a sign proudly declaring its occupant: "MCP, Mayfield Consumer Products."

It is no more.

Inside what was once a candle factory, dozens of workers were trapped when the most powerful tornado in the history of Kentucky -- and possibly of the entire United States -- rumbled through like a freight train Friday night.

In all, 110 employees were inside, working to supply scented candles and essential oils -- popular products during the holiday season. The factory had been operating around the clock.

But that night the exceptionally powerful storm flattened the factory -- as it did much of the nearby town of Mayfield.

By Sunday morning, workers were using bulldozers and construction equipment to clear debris from the historic town's devastated center, working in chilly temperatures but under a bright sun.

Forty employees of the candle factory were rescued in the early hours of Saturday, Governor Andy Beshear said. He did not say how many might have made their own way out on their own.

Now, the hopes of finding survivors are fading fast.

"I pray for it," Beshear told CNN on Sunday. "It would be an incredible miracle." But, he acknowledged, no survivor had been found since a few hours after the storm ripped through.

- 'Terrifying experience' -

The governor said at least 80 deaths have been confirmed in Kentucky, the state hardest hit by a slew of tornadoes.

Many of the dead perished at the Mayfield candle factory, which lay squarely in one twister's path.

MCP was a major employer in the town of 10,000. A family-owned business created in 1998, it had recently been hiring -- a rarity in an America where small manufacturers more often lose out to international competitors.

"Our Mayfield, Kentucky facility was destroyed December 10, 2021, by a tornado, and tragically employees were killed and injured," CEO Troy Propes said in a message on the company website.

"Our employees, some who have worked with us for many years, are cherished."

The factory also employed trusted inmates from a local prison.

Since late Friday, rescue workers have been desperately searching through the tangle of debris that is all that remains of the factory, where fallen girders and twisted sheet metal are piled high.

They have been seen removing corpses, while advancing gingerly through the wreckage with heavy equipment. Specially trained dogs sniff the debris to find anyone -- dead or alive -- still buried.

Jason Riccinto had worked at the factory, but as a volunteer fireman he has spent hours with a search crew on the scene.

"We moved stuff by hand to search for people. Once we knew nobody was there, they get the excavators," he told AFP. "It's search, pull back, search, pull back."

"It's total devastation."

The His House Ministries, a nondenominational church near Mayfield, has been providing food and clothing for survivors -- and a space for the county coroner to do his work, pastor Stephen Boyken said.

People "come with pictures, birthmarks -- they talk now about using DNA samples to identify those who have been lost," he said.

Those who made it out alive described scenes of terror and anguish.

One trapped factory worker, Kyanna Parsons-Perez, broadcast herself on Facebook Live, pleading in a quavering voice for anyone to come help.

The harrowing sound of fellow workers crying and moaning could be heard. But there was also the sound of one woman's voice quietly seeking to calm the others.

Parsons-Perez miraculously survived.

"It was absolutely the most terrifying thing I have ever experienced in my life," she said later.

cyj-hr/seb/bbk/mlm

Spokesman: 8 factory workers dead, 8 missing from tornado

By BRUCE SCHREINER and DYLAN LOVAN

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In this aerial photo, a collapsed factory and surrounding areas are seen in Mayfield, Ky., Sunday, Dec. 12, 2021. Tornadoes and severe weather caused catastrophic damage across multiple states Friday, killing several people overnight. (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert)


MAYFIELD, Ky. (AP) — Workers on the night shift at Mayfield Consumer Products were in the middle of the holiday rush, cranking out candles, when a tornado closed in on the factory and the word went out: “Duck and cover.”

Autumn Kirks pulled down her safety goggles and took shelter, tossing aside wax and fragrance buckets to make room. She glanced away from her boyfriend, Lannis Ward, and when she looked back, he was gone.

On Sunday, he was among those feared dead in the rubble of the factory and elsewhere across the state.

Gov. Andy Beshear initially warned Sunday that the state’s overall death toll from the outbreak of twisters Friday night in Mayfield and other communities could exceed 100. But later in the day, the candle company said that while eight were confirmed dead and eight remained missing, more than 90 others had been located.

“Many of the employees were gathered in the tornado shelter and after the storm was over they left the plant and went to their homes,” said Bob Ferguson, a spokesman for the company. “With the power out and no landline they were hard to reach initially. We’re hoping to find more of those eight unaccounted as we try their home residences.”

The update raised hope that the toll from the twister outbreak wouldn’t be as high as first feared, and the governor said it would be “pretty wonderful” if original estimates were wrong.

Kentucky was the worst-hit state by far in an unusual mid-December swarm of twisters across the Midwest and the South that leveled entire communities and left at least 14 people dead in four other states.

Forty people who were inside the candle factory were pulled out soon after the twister struck, authorities said. The number of people who had been in the factory was initially put at 110. Rescuers had to crawl over the dead to get to the living at a disaster scene that smelled like scented candles.

But by the time churchgoers gathered Sunday morning to pray for the lost, more than 24 hours had elapsed since anyone had been found alive in the wreckage. Instead, crews recovered pieces of peoples’ lives — a backpack, a pair of shoes and a cellphone with 27 missed messages were among the items.

Layers of steel and cars 15 feet deep were on top of what used to the factory roof, the governor said.

“We’re going to grieve together, we’re going to dig out and clean up together, and we will rebuild and move forward together. We’re going to get through this,” Beshear said. “We’re going to get through this together, because that is what we do.”

Satellite images provided by Maxar shows Mayfield Consumer Products candle factory and nearby buildings after a tornado caused heavy damage in the area, in Mayfield, Ky. (Satellite image ©2021 Maxar Technologies via AP)

Four twisters hit the state in all, including one with an extraordinarily long path of about 200 miles (322 kilometers) long, authorities said. The outbreak was all the more remarkable because it came at a time of year when cold weather normally limits tornadoes.

Eleven people were reported killed in and around Bowling Green alone.

“I’ve got towns that are gone, that are just, I mean gone. My dad’s hometown — half of it isn’t standing,” Breshear said of Dawson Springs.

He said that going door to door in search of victims is out of the question in the hardest-hit areas: “There are no doors.”

“We’re going to have over 1,000 homes that are gone, just gone,” the governor said.

With afternoon high temperatures forecast only in the 40s, tens of thousands of people were without power. About 300 National Guard members went house to house, checking on people and helping to remove debris. Cadaver dogs searched for victims.

Kirks said she and her boyfriend were about 10 feet apart in a hallway when someone said to take cover. Suddenly, she saw sky and lightning where a wall had been, and Ward had vanished.

“I remember taking my eyes off of him for a second, and then he was gone,” she said.

Later, she got the terrible news — that Ward had been killed in the storm.

Kirks was at a ministry center where people gathered to seek information about the missing.

“It was indescribable,” Pastor Joel Cauley said of the disaster scene. “It was almost like you were in a twilight zone. You could smell the aroma of candles, and you could hear the cries of people for help. Candle smells and all the sirens is not something I ever expected to experience at the same time.”

Satellite images provided by Maxar shows homes and buildings before and after thee storms in Mayfield, Ky. (Satellite image ©2021 Maxar Technologies via AP)

The outbreak also killed at least six people in Illinois, where an Amazon distribution center in Edwardsville was hit; four in Tennessee; two in Arkansas, where a nursing home was destroyed and the governor said workers shielded residents with their own bodies; and two in Missouri.

Debris from destroyed buildings and shredded trees covered the ground in Mayfield, a city of about 10,000 in western Kentucky. Twisted sheet metal, downed power lines and wrecked vehicles lined the streets. Windows were blown out and roofs torn off the buildings that were still standing.

In the shadows of their crumpled church sanctuaries, two congregations in Mayfield came together on Sunday to pray for those who were lost. Members of First Christian Church and First Presbyterian Church met in a parking lot surrounded by rubble, piles of broken bricks and metal.

“Our little town will never be the same, but we’re resilient,” Laura McClendon said. “We’ll get there, but it’s going to take a long time.”

___

Associated Press writers Kristin Hall and Claire Galofaro in Mayfield; Jay Reeves in Birmingham, Alabama; Seth Borenstein in Washington; and Travis Loller in Nashville, Tennessee, contributed to this report.

 

 Kentucky's governor said at least 70 may have died in the state and the toll was climbing after tornadoes and severe weather ripped through at least five states, leaving widespread devastation. (Dec. 11)

   

 Video taken the morning after the masssive tornado that tore through several US states shows the destruction it left in one small town. (Dec. 11) 

     

 President Joe Biden said Saturday that he was briefed on the situation after a monstrous tornado killed dozens of people in Kentucky. (Dec. 11)

How the multi-state December tornado formed
By , Accuweather.com

Twisted metal and chunks of concrete crushing vehicles, are all that is left of the Amazon Hub in Edwardsville, Ill., on Saturday. Photo by Bill Greenblatt/UPI | License Photo

The deadly tornado outbreak of Friday spanned multiple states in the Southeast and left hundreds of miles of devastation. With tornado outbreaks of this caliber typically occurring between February and June, many are left to wonder how such a devastating outbreak could occur in December.AccuWeather's Director of Forecast Operations, Dan Depodwin, said the outbreak that occurred in the Southeast was "a very rare situation."

"We talk about these types of events with numerous tornadoes...several violent with what appears to be violent EF4 or maybe EF5 tornadoes. Those typically occur in the spring time in the February through June time frame in most cases," said Depodwin.

Severe weather can happen this time of year, but Depodwin says it's typically confined to the Gulf Coast region and sometimes a bit further north compared to the outbreak that just occurred in the Southeast.

"I think what really surprised me...and struck most of the weather community about this outbreak yesterday was how far north they came and how violent the tornadoes were," he said.

An average of two dozen or so tornadoes are reported in the United States during the month of December. The multi-state outbreak is shaping up to be much more than average and much farther north than usual. In addition, the number of fatalities that the outbreak may have caused is exceptionally rare, as the month of December rarely sees tornado fatalities at all.

The unusual warmth in the north that preceded the outbreak was one of the main ingredients that drove it to occur. It's typically not so warm this time of year for that region, so outbreaks are usually unable to form.

"I think the warm December certainly played a role. We haven't had a lot of cold fronts make their way all the way down into the Gulf of Mexico yet so that can sometimes help cool off the sea surface temperatures," said Depodwin.

The Gulf of Mexico being at or above normal this time of year can further aid in the transport of warmer air northward, which is what helped fuel the multi-state outbreak seen Friday.

As the warmer air from the gulf moved north, a very strong low pressure area was moving out of the Rockies and into the Great Lakes region. This pulled the warm and moist air north.

Depodwin said the four main ingredients for severe weather were prevalent to create the outbreak.

"You need moisture, which we had from the Gulf of Mexico. You need instability, rising air. You need colder air aloft, we had that. You need some type of lifting mechanism, a cold front in this case. And then you need some type of turning in the atmosphere or windshield, as we call it," he explained.

All four ingredients have to come together perfectly to have a strong outbreak, as they did on Friday.

"This sort of reminded me of a March or April type setup, certainly something we don't see often at all. In December...we talk about December here. We don't typically have a lot of warm air," he said.

As for later this month, the potential for severe weather continues to exist. Next week will see a storm eject from the Rockies, bringing more warm moist air north. That air will collide with colder air to the north, creating a severe weather threat.

The spots to watch for that potential severe weather outbreak will include portions of northern Missouri, Iowa and potentially parts of southern Minnesota.

"If you live in any parts of the middle of the country here or the Mississippi Valley in the next week or so, we have to keep an eye on one or two chances for severe weather. And then, as we head more into January, we typically see a low in the severe weather before it ramps back up," said Depodwin.

As for the possibility for another outbreak like last Friday night, Depodwin says it's unlikely.

"There can certainly be more tornadoes this month, though," he said.

Severe weather 'new normal,' US emergency chief warns after tornadoes

Severe weather events -- like the huge tornadoes which caused dozens of deaths and catastrophic damage across multiple US states -- are becoming more common as a result of climate change, US officials warn (AFP/Brendan Smialowski)

Sun, December 12, 2021,

More powerful, destructive, and deadlier storms will be the "new normal" as the effects of climate change take root, the top US emergency management official said Sunday after massive tornadoes ravaged six states.

Meteorologists and other scientists have long warned of the growing intensity of weather events like storms, fires and flooding.

But the crisis hit home in a terrifying way overnight Friday into Saturday when more than two dozen twisters raked across large swaths of the American heartland, leaving more than 90 people dead, dozens missing and communities in ruin.

"This is going to be our new normal," Deanne Criswell, head of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, told CNN's "State of the Union" as she did a round of national Sunday morning talk shows before she headed to Kentucky to assess the damage and help coordinate the federal response.

"The effects that we're seeing from climate change are the crisis of our generation," the FEMA chief added.

Criswell warned of the challenge that the United States faces in addressing such severe weather events.

"We're seeing more intense storms, severe weather, whether it's hurricanes, tornadoes, wildfires," she said on ABC's "This Week."

"The focus I'm going to have is, how do we start to reduce the impacts of these events?"

The tornado that reduced several towns to rubble was a gargantuan twister. It rumbled along the ground for over 200 miles (320 kilometers), one of the longest, if not the longest, on record.

US President Joe Biden said Saturday the storm system was likely "one of the largest tornado outbreaks in our history."

And while he stressed that the impact of climate change on these particular storms was not yet clear, "we all know everything is more intense when the climate is warming -- everything."

Scientists have stopped short of conclusive determinations that more violent storms are the result of climate change, but they agree that evidence is building.

One paper published recently by scientific association AGU says its analysis "suggests increasing global temperature will affect the occurrence of conditions favorable to severe weather."

Daniel Swain, a UCLA climate scientist, tweeted Saturday in response to the study, saying that while the effect of climate change on severe weather like tornadoes is not well established, "there is a growing body of research (including this late-breaking paper) suggesting that warming likely does increase such risks in many regions globally."

mlm/bbk

Tornadoes Like Kentucky’s May Be Getting Stronger Due to Climate Change, Scientists Say

The Perfect Storm — part two, three, four...
/ Earth & Energy/ Climate Change/ Extreme Weather/ Global Warming

Image by Getty

After horrific tornadoes devastated thousands of homes and killed dozens across Illinois, Kentucky, and Tennessee, experts are warning that climate change could be making the fearsome storms stronger.

“As last night showed severe tornadoes can happen in any season, especially if the weather is unusually warm, as it was last night,” said Dr. Robert Rohde, lead scientist at Berkeley Earth, on Twitter Saturday morning.

“Historically, December has the fewest tornadoes in the USA,” Rohde added.

Rohde isn’t alone in noticing how unseasonably warm the December evening was, and multiple other scientists say climate change could have aggravated the storms. A new report from the Washington Post gathered insights from numerous scientists who say that unfortunately, storms like this may become more common and should be further researched.

“A lot of people are waking up today and seeing this damage and saying, ‘Is this the new normal?'” Victor Gensini, a meteorology professor at Northern Illinois University told the Post. “It’ll be some time before we can say for certain what kind of role climate change played in an event like yesterday.”

The warmer the air and the colder the cold front that clashes into it, the more turbulent and violent the storms become. Temperatures in the tornado’s path helped created a more powerful storm, according to WaPo, rising into the 70s to near 80 degrees Friday evening. In Memphis, a 103-year-old record high was broken when temperatures hit 79 degrees Farenheit.

“It’s absolutely fair to say that the atmospheric environments will be more supportive for cool-season tornado events,” Gensini told the Post.

However, that doesn’t mean there’s a definite link between climate change and worsening tornados, and scientists say we still have more to learn.

“Tornadoes are, unfortunately, one of the extreme events where we have the least confidence in our ability to attribute or understand the impact of climate change on specific events,” Zeke Hausfather, climate scientist at the Breakthrough Institute, in Oakland, CA told the Post. “There is not much evidence to date that the number of strong tornadoes is different today than it was over much of the past century.”

Although scientists may need more time to figure out just how tornadoes may be changing, if at all, residents in other parts of the country know personally how the damage sticks around long after buildings are repaired and power is restored.

On Friday evening, residents of Nashville, TN took to Twitter to talk about surviving the devastating March 2020 tornado that killed two and decimated entire blocks of historic music venues and bars. Many also shared photos of their tornado safety planning and shared how anxious they remained during this weekend’s storm.

“Not sure I’ve ever stayed up this late,” tweeted Tennessee-based news editor Holly McCall, echoing the thoughts of many Nashvillians.

Even if it takes scientists years to catch up, people in the South and Midwest know firsthand how devastating these storms are, and many say they’ve never seen anything like it. Although it’s traumatizing and hard to admit, back-to-back years with high tornado death tolls means it may be a matter of time until data catches up with what everyday people seem to already believe: the weather feels like it’s getting worse.

More on climate trouble: Scientists Are Building a “Black Box” to Record End of Civilization

Explainer: Was Deadly Tornado Storm System Related To Climate Change?

Warm weather was a crucial ingredient in the outbreak that killed dozens of people, but whether climate change is a factor is not quite as clear.

AP
12/12/2021

Satellite imagery shows Mayfield, Kentucky, after a tornado hit the town on Friday.
MAXAR VIA GETTY IMAGES


WASHINGTON (AP) — The calendar said December but the warm moist air screamed of springtime. Add an eastbound storm front guided by a La Nina weather pattern into that mismatch and it spawned tornadoes that killed dozens over five U.S. states.

Tornadoes in December are unusual, but not unheard of. But the ferocity and path length of Friday night’s tornadoes likely put them in a category of their own, meteorologists say. One of the twisters — if it is confirmed to have been just one — likely broke a nearly 100-year-old record for how long a tornado stayed on the ground in a path of destruction, experts said.

“One word: remarkable; unbelievable would be another,” said Northern Illinois University meteorology professor Victor Gensini. “It was really a late spring type of setup in in the middle of December.”

Warm weather was a crucial ingredient in this tornado outbreak, but whether climate change is a factor is not quite as clear, meteorologists say.

A U.S. national flag waves among tornado damage after extreme weather hit the region in Bowling Green, Kentucky.
GUNNAR WORD VIA GETTY IMAGES

Scientists say figuring out how climate change is affecting the frequency of tornadoes is complicated and their understanding is still evolving. But they do say the atmospheric conditions that give rise to such outbreaks are intensifying in the winter as the planet warms. And tornado alley is shifting farther east away from the Kansas-Oklahoma area and into states where Friday’s killers hit.

Here’s a look at what’s known about Friday’s tornado outbreak and the role of climate change in such weather events.

WHAT CAUSES A TORNADO?

Tornadoes are whirling, vertical air columns that form from thunderstorms and stretch to the ground. They travel with ferocious speed and lay waste to everything in their path.


Thunderstorms occur when denser, drier cold air is pushed over warmer, humid air, conditions scientists call atmospheric instability. As that happens, an updraft is created when the warm air rises. When winds vary in speed or direction at different altitudes — a condition known as wind shear — the updraft will start to spin.

These changes in winds produce the spin necessary for a tornado. For especially strong tornadoes, changes are needed in both the wind’s speed and direction.



Warm weather was a crucial ingredient in this recent tornado outbreak, but whether climate change is a factor is not quite as clear, meteorologists say.
SCOTT OLSON VIA GETTY IMAGES

“When considerable variation in wind is found over the lowest few thousand feet of the atmosphere, tornado-producing ‘supercell thunderstorms’ are possible,” said Paul Markowski, professor of meteorology at Pennsylvania State University. “That’s what we had yesterday.”

There’s usually a lot of wind shear in the winter because of the big difference in temperature and air pressure between the equator and the Arctic, Gensini said.

But usually, there’s not a lot of instability in the winter that’s needed for tornadoes because the air isn’t as warm and humid, Gensini said. This time there was.

WHAT CONDITIONS LED TO STORMS OF THIS SCALE?

A few factors, which meteorologists will continue to study.

Spring-like temperatures across much of the Midwest and South in Decem

BRETT CARLSEN VIA GETTY IMAGES


Tornadoes typically lose energy in a matter of minutes, but in this case it was hours, Gensini said. That’s partly the reason for the exceptionally long path of Friday’s storm, going more than 200 miles (322 kilometers) or so, he said. The record was 219 miles (352 kilometers) and was set by a tornado that struck four states in 1925. Gensini thinks this one will surpass it once meteorologists finish analyzing it.


“In order to get a really long path length, you have to have a really fast moving storm. This storm was moving well over 50 miles (80 kilometers) per hour for a majority of its life,” Gensini said. That’s not the speed of the winds, but of the overall storm movement.

“You’re talking about highway-speed storm motions,” Gensini said.

HOW RELATED IS CLIMATE CHANGE TO TORNADO OUTBREAKS?

It’s complicated. Scientists are still trying to sort out the many conflicting factors about whether human-caused climate change is making tornadoes more common — or even more intense. About 1,200 twisters hit the U.S. each year — though that figure can vary — according to the NOAA National Severe Storms Laboratory. No other country sees as many.

Attributing a specific storm like Friday’s to the effects of climate change remains very challenging. Less than 10% of severe thunderstorms produce tornadoes, which makes drawing conclusions about climate change and the processes leading up to them tricky, said Harold Brooks, a tornado scientist at the National Severe Storms Laboratory.

Scientists have observed changes taking place to the basic ingredients of a thunderstorm, however, as the planet warms. Gensini says in the aggregate, extreme storms are “becoming more common because we have a lot warmer air masses in the cool season that can support these types of severe weather outbreaks.”

The U.S. is likely to see more tornadoes occur in the winter, Brooks said, as national temperatures rise above the long-term average. Fewer events will take place in the summer, he said.

Furtado of the University of Oklahoma said tornado alley, a term used to describe where many twisters hit the U.S., has shifted eastward into the Mississippi River Valley. That shift is because of increases in temperature, moisture and shear.

“Bottom line: The people in the Mississippi River Valley and Ohio River Valley are becoming increasingly vulnerable to more tornadic activity with time,” he said.

___

Follow Suman Naishadham on Twitter @sumannaishadham and Seth Borenstein at @borenbears

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The Associated Press receives support from the Walton Family Foundation for coverage of water and environmental policy. The AP is solely responsible for all content. For all of AP’s environmental coverage, visit https://apnews.com/hub/environment

Will new bacon law begin? California grocers seek delay
By SCOTT McFetridge

1 of 9

A hog walks in a holding pen on the Ron Mardesen farm, Thursday, Dec. 2, 2021, near Elliott, Iowa. A coalition of California restaurants and grocery stores has filed a lawsuit to block implementation of a farm animal welfare law, adding to uncertainty about whether bacon and other fresh pork products will be prohibitively expensive or available at all in the state when the new rules take effect on New Year's Day. Mardesen already meets the California standards for the hogs he sells to specialty meat company Niman Ranch, which supported passage of Proposition 12 and requires all of its roughly 650 hog farmers to give breeding pigs far more room than mandated by the law. (AP Photo/Charlie Neibergall)

ELLIOTT, Iowa (AP) — A coalition of California restaurants and grocery stores has filed a lawsuit to block implementation of a new farm animal welfare law, adding to uncertainty about whether bacon and other fresh pork products will be much more expensive or in short supply in the state when the new rules take effect on New Year’s Day.

The lawsuit is the latest step in a tumultuous three-year process of enacting rules overwhelmingly approved by voters but that remain in question even as the law is set to begin. Since voters approved Proposition 12 by a 2-to-1 ratio in November 2018, state officials have missed deadlines for releasing specific regulations covering the humane treatment of animals that provide meat for the California market.

Most hog producers haven’t made changes to comply with the law. And now a coalition of business owners is seeking more than a two-year delay.

“We’re saying this is not going to work,” said Nate Rose, a spokesman for the California Grocers Association.

While groups are working to delay the measure, the state has eased the transition to the new system. It has allowed pork processed under the old rules and held in cold storage to be sold in California in 2022, which could prevent shortages for weeks or even months.

As Josh Balk, who leads farm animal protection efforts at the Humane Society of the United States, put it, California residents need not fear “pork industry claims of the apocalypse.”

Put simply, the law requires that breeding pigs, egg-laying chickens and veal calves be given enough space to stand and turn around. For pigs, that means they no longer can be kept in narrow “gestation crates” and must have 24 square feet (2.23 square meters) of usable space.

Producers of eggs and veal appear able to meet the new law, but hog farmers argued the changes would be too expensive and couldn’t be carried out until the state approved final regulations for the new standards. An estimate from North Carolina State University found the new standard would cost about 15% more per animal for a farm with 1,000 breeding pigs.

The National Pork Producers Council has challenged California’s right to impose standards on businesses in other states, but so far those efforts have failed.

California is the nation’s largest market for pork, and producers in major hog states like Iowa provide more than 80% of the roughly 255 million pounds (115 million kilograms) that California’s restaurants and groceries use each month, according to Rabobank, a global food and agriculture financial services company.

Without that supply, it’s unclear if a state that consumes about 13% of the nation’s pork supply will have all the meat it demands. The North American Meat Institute, an industry group, said packers and processors “will do their best to serve the California market.”

“What will happen in California? I don’t know,” said Michael Formica, the general counsel for the National Pork Producers Council. “One thing we know is there will be finite supplies to sell there.”

Adding to the uncertainty is the lawsuit filed last month in Sacramento County by the California Grocers Association, California Restaurant Association, California Hispanic Chambers of Commerce, California Retailers Association and Kruse & Sons, a meat processor. The suit seeks a 28-month delay until final regulations for enforcement of the rules are officially adopted.

California’s agriculture and health departments have said the voter-backed measure didn’t give them enough time to approve final regulations. The agencies were still accepting public comments for revisions in December. That means it could be months before final rules are approved.

Given that delay, the groups claim in the lawsuit that they can’t be sure they’re complying and could be subject to penalties stipulated in the law.

“Our concern is the uncertainty,” said Rose, of the grocers association. He said a judge has scheduled a hearing for March, but the group is pushing for an earlier date.

If the law takes effect Jan. 1, it’s possible the state could avoid immediate shortages or steep price increases because the industry has about 466 million pounds (211 million kilograms) of pork in storage. Not all of that meat can be sent to California, of course, but when combined with new supplies from processors that meet the new standards, it should meet at least some of the demand.

If there is a disruption, it “would be significantly smoothed,” said Daniel Sumner, a professor at the University of California-Davis, who teamed with colleagues to study the price and supply implications of Proposition 12.

While an earlier study projected bacon prices soaring by up to 60% in California, a UC-Davis report estimated that the uncooked pork prices rising eventually by a more manageable 8% in California.

Massachusetts has approved a similar animal welfare law that takes effect next month, but state lawmakers are considering a one-year delay because of supply concerns.

The accuracy of the California estimates could depend on how many farmers adopt the new standards and how long the transition takes.

Iowa farmer Ron Mardesen already meets the California standards, and for much of the year gives sows free rein to roam through large areas of his farm about 100 miles (160 kilometers) southwest of Des Moines.

With so much room, “They’re like a bunch of big, old sisters,” he said. “You can tell they’re happy. No one is squealing or crying.”

Chris Oliviero, general manager of Niman Ranch, a specialty meat company in Westminster, Colorado, said he hopes California’s new rules help change a system he calls “lower cost at any cost.” Although Niman charges more for its pork, he said he hopes the new California rules help limit the environmental consequences of large-scale animal agriculture.

“There is volatility in the markets, so I understand the fears that comes with that, but I also think most large agricultural companies have shown that when they put their mind to it they’re very capable of solving complex problems,” Oliviero said.

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Follow Scott McFetridge on Twitter: https://twitter.com/smcfetridge

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This story has been updated to correct the amount of pork consumed in California and the amount in cold storage. Josh Balk’s last name has also been corrected.

Rethinking police reform: from defunding to promoting sustainability

By Angela Workman-Stark, Athabasca University

Protesters and local residents gather April 20 at the George Floyd Memorial at the corner of Chicago Avenue and 38th Street in Minneapolis, the site where Floyd died, to hear the verdict announcement in the trial of former police officer Derek Chauvin in Floyd's death. He was convicted. 

Photo by Jemal Countess/UPI | License Photo

Dec. 10 (UPI) -- Derek Chauvin was convicted of the murder of George Floyd on June 25. Since then, calls for police reform haven't been as loud.

One explanation might be attributed to the language of "defund the police." This slogan has been polarizing, alienating police and other stakeholders from crucial conversations about change.

The never-ending pandemic and an increased focus on climate change may also have helped stall talks; however, the issues that led to the many calls for change have not gone away, nor are they new.

Calls for reform

Since the 1980s -- and throughout my 24 years of policing experience -- recruitment of diverse officers and diversity training have been consistently identified as key to improving police-minority relations.

For instance, in 1989, the Royal Commission on the Donald Marshall, Jr. Prosecution (an Indigenous man who was wrongly convicted), recommended the police establish recruitment targets to reflect the general population, develop policies on racial stereotyping and deliver cultural sensitivity training to their members.

Recently, a House of Commons committee also recommended enhanced training and diversity hiring as part of a response to reports of systemic racism in policing.

Similarly, President Barack Obama's 2015 Task Force on 21st Century Policing called for the creation of a diverse law enforcement workforce to improve understanding and effectiveness in working with communities, along with the adoption of a police culture of accountability and transparency and efforts to proactively promote public trust through non-enforcement engagement activities.

While a seemingly impenetrable police culture has been consistently cited as a barrier to reform, from my related academic research, I propose that an equally problematic issue is the continued reliance on outdated indicators of police performance. In short, these indicators reinforce conventional ideas of police sustainability rather than align with the concerns of "defund the police" advocates.

Sustainability now

Traditionally, police sustainability has been associated with police effectiveness and demonstrations of value, which have often been linked to crime stats, crime clearance rates and arrests.

Unfortunately, these metrics provide no information about the experiences of Black, Indigenous and other racialized people. They also fail to provide information on public perceptions of fair and equitable treatment by police.

Internally, limited attention has been paid to assessing the experiences of women and racialized officers. Therefore, it is no surprise that their representation within the police is lower than in the general population.

Women and racialized officers are also continually subjected to discrimination and harassment within their own departments.

Additional problems with traditional indicators of success were highlighted in a session on policing and public safety at the Harvard Kennedy School. A summary report from this session noted that:

"Just as we measure internal organizational success by employee adherence to rules, we measure external operational success through crime rates and arrest statistics. We do both to the detriment of building trust and legitimacy, because they ignore what the research tells us and what the public and the rank and file tell us. Both the public and rank-and-file officers want to be treated fairly by those in authority. We should not be surprised that we end up with poor morale among our officers echoed by the lack of trust from the community."

Studies show a promising link between fair treatment and several positive outcomes, including increased openness of officers to change, improved attitudes about community policing and increased support for more democratic forms of policing.

My own research also suggests that treating officers fairly and with dignity and respect may counter harmful aspects of police culture.

Clearly, it's time to rethink how we approach police reform as well as how we define and assess police sustainability.

Redefining police sustainability

In the book, Policing for Sustainable Development Goals, the authors advocate for a more human-rights oriented style of policing that focuses on: protecting the vulnerable, working within the rule of law and being representative of a transparent, effective and accountable public organization.

Consistent with the UN sustainable development goals, police sustainability should also be concerned with providing a safe and secure workplace.

Repositioning police sustainability as creating public value while also ensuring a positive societal impact means paying attention to policies and practices that promote a safe and healthy working environment on top of police actions that benefit communities.

Under this new interpretation of sustainability, indicators of success pertain to both the internal and external environments. Internally, these indicators include positive assessments of interactions that may also act as early warnings of possible misconduct.

Externally, a key outcome of police sustainability is enhanced legitimacy, which can be measured through citizen perceptions that the police act lawfully, treat community members fairly and with respect and keep them safe.

Rethinking what we mean by police sustainability, how we measure it and how we hold the police accountable for outcomes, may create the opening for a more viable path to reform.

Such actions call for examining police reform through the lens of sustainability rather than "defunding." In the end, we may just achieve the same goal of meaningful change without alienating key stakeholders in the process.

Angela Workman-Stark is an associate professor of organizational behavior at Athabasca University.

This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.

The views and opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of the author.

Afghanistan opium trade booms since Taliban takeover

More Afghans facing extreme poverty are turning to opium production as a means of survival. Despite promises to the contrary, the Taliban are unlikely to oppose cultivation of the narcotic cash crop.


Poppy farmers collect raw opium in Jalalabad, east of Kabul

The cultivation of opium poppy as a medicinal plant has a long history in Afghanistan.

The milky sap extracted from the seed pods is dried to produce raw opium, an effective remedy for severe pain. Today, opium is used primarily as an intoxicant and as a raw material for the production of stronger drugs like prescription painkillers and heroin.

In the last harvest season, which ended in July, an estimated 6,800 tons of opium were produced in Afghanistan. This was an 8% increase over 2020, according to a recent report by the UN Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC).

According to the report, Afghanistan accounts for 85% of global opium production, and Afghan opiates supply 80% of users worldwide.

The UNODC has calculated that the opium business will have generated between $1.8 billion and $2.7 billion (€1.6 billion and €2.4 billion) in Afghanistan in 2021, about one-tenth of Afghanistan's economic output.

The agency said the Taliban takeover in August 2021, and the resulting protracted economic uncertainty, drove opium prices in August and September to new highs. "This strengthens the incentive for opium cultivation," the report said.

'We didn't have everything under control'

"Opium production in Afghanistan will continue to increase," says a former Afghan army officer under the condition of anonymity. "Growing opium is a secure source of income for farmers and many unemployed people who are now returning to their villages from the cities," says the army officer, whose identity is protected for security reasons.

Up until the Taliban takeover, the officer belonged to a special unit of the Afghan army tasked with fighting drug-related crime.

"We didn't have everything under control at the time," the officer admitted. "Especially in remote areas, the Taliban had more influence and protected farmers growing opium poppies. If the Taliban wanted to, they could hinder opium production — they've done that before."

During the Taliban's first period of rule from 1996 to 2001, they cracked down on opium production, which consequently dropped to 185 metric tons in 2001. However, after the Taliban were toppled from power that year, opium production shot up again.

Even today, the Taliban claim they want to combat opium cultivation and drug trafficking in Afghanistan.  After taking power in August, the Taliban announced their intention to reduce opium production to zero.

However, the Taliban are known for using the drug trade to finance militant operations. According to the US government, they generate up to 60% of their annual revenue from growing and trafficking drugs.

Opium trade likely to continue

Thomas Ruttig of the Afghanistan Analysts Network said the Taliban are not the only factor driving the drug economy in Afghanistan in recent years.

"The previous government struggled with the Taliban for influence in rural areas, and many of its people were directly involved in drug smuggling," he said.

The analyst said Western troops in Afghanistan often worked with warlords, commanders and government officials who were involved in the drug trade, and rarely did anything to stop it.

Ruttig added that he does not think the Taliban are serious about wanting to reduce opium production in Afghanistan to zero.

"They don't want to do it, and they can't do it, because they would lose key rural supporters," he said.   

This article has been translated from German

Edited by: Kate Martyr