Ethiopia: New Wave of Atrocities in Western Tigray

Jnyssen
A scene in the Rawyan area of Western Tigray.

16 DECEMBER 2021
Human Rights Watch (Washington, DC)

PRESS RELEASE

Nairobi — Amhara security forces are responsible for a surge of mass detentions, killings, and forced expulsions of ethnic Tigrayans in the Western Tigray territory of northern Ethiopia, Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch said today.

Tigrayan civilians attempting to escape the new wave of violence have been attacked and killed. Scores in detention face life-threatening conditions including torture, starvation, and denial of medical care.

"The new onslaught of abuses by Amhara forces against Tigrayan civilians remaining in several towns in Western Tigray should ring alarm bells," said Joanne Mariner, director of crisis response at Amnesty International. "Without urgent international action to prevent further atrocities, Tigrayans, particularly those in detention, are at grave risk."

Since the armed conflict began in November 2020, Western Tigray, a disputed administrative territory, has been the site of some of the worst atrocities, including massacres, indiscriminate shelling, and large-scale forced displacement of the Tigrayan population.

On December 2, 2021, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) reported that 1.2 million people have been displaced from Western Tigray since the beginning of the conflict. A December 9 OCHA report found that between November 25 and December 1, over 10,000 Tigrayans were newly displaced from Western Tigray. It also stated that Western Tigray remained inaccessible to aid agencies due to security concerns.

In November and December, Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch conducted phone interviews with 31 people, including 25 witnesses and survivors, as well as relatives of those detained and expelled, about abuses by Amhara militias and regional security forces against Tigrayan civilians in the towns of Adebai, Humera, and Rawyan.

Since early November, Amhara regional police forces and militias, including militia groups known as Fanos, have systematically rounded up Tigrayans in Adebai, Humera, and Rawyan. These forces separated families, arrested teenagers aged 15 and older, and men and women civilians. They have forcibly expelled women and younger children, as well as sick and older people from the area. Some of those expelled have since arrived in Central Tigray, while others remain unaccounted for.

"Tigrayans, regardless of [their] sex and age, were taken to a school," said one man in Rawyan who witnessed the house-to-house roundups of Tigrayans by Fano militia. "They separated the old from the young, took their money and other possessions.... Older people and parents were loaded on big trucks [going] east. They let them go with nothing, while the young remained behind."

Following roundups in Humera on November 20 and 21, two witnesses described seeing as many as 20 trucks full of people leaving on those days toward Central Tigray.

Six witnesses said Amhara forces shot at Tigrayans seeking to flee the roundups in Adebai and attacked them with sticks and sharp objects. An unknown number were killed.

"They started shooting [at] whoever was in range running," said a 34-year-old farmer from Adebai, who ran to nearby fields from Fano militias attacking him and others.

"When the people tried to escape, ... [the Fano] attacked them with machetes and axes so no one could escape.... We were passing bodies and we were all in shock.... After we calmed down, we noticed that there were more bodies there too. Everywhere you turned, there would be five, ten bodies."

Four witnesses said armed elements also shot at Tigrayans crossing into Sudan.

Satellite imagery captured between November 19 and December 5 shows significant activity in Adebai, including moving vehicles, groups of people around a makeshift detention site, large amounts of debris on the main road, and burned structures. Imagery taken on December 5 in Humera shows 16 open-back trucks near the town's central roundabout.

Three former detainees held in Humera prison, some of whom had been held for as long as five months before they escaped in November, said that Amhara authorities kept them in extremely overcrowded cells for extended periods. Guards denied them food and medical treatment and tortured and beat detainees whose hands and feet had been tied with sticks and rifles.

One former detainee, arrested on July 19, escaped around November 13 while loading corpses of fellow detainees onto a tractor. He said he knew of 30 people who died while he was held there, including 7 of the 200 men in his cell:

"All of us have gone through it [the beatings] but the most vulnerable ones were the [older men]," he said. "They couldn't handle the torture, that's why they were dying." He said that the Fano militia members beating them threatened all Tigrayans with death.

The roundups, abusive detentions, and forced expulsions separated families and left communities from the three towns desperate for news about the safety and whereabouts of their loved ones, many of whom were put on trucks and remain unaccounted for. One man who fled Adebai in late November said:

The Ethiopian authorities should immediately cease attacks on civilians, secure the release of those arbitrarily detained, and urgently provide unimpeded access to Western Tigray for aid agencies and organizations with a mandate to visit detention sites, Amnesty International and Human Rights Watch said.

Given the gravity of the ongoing abuses, the UN Human Rights Council should urgently establish an independent international mechanism to investigate abuses in the Tigray conflict, including serious violations of international humanitarian law (the laws of war), identify those responsible at all levels, and preserve evidence for future accountability.

Forced displacement and deliberate attacks on the civilian population violate the laws of war. Everyone in custody has the right to be treated humanely and with respect for their inherent dignity, including having access to adequate food and medical care. Ordering civilians displaced for reasons not required for their security or imperative military necessity, attacking civilians who are not directly participating in hostilities, and torturing or otherwise mistreating detainees are war crimes.

"The global paralysis on Ethiopia's armed conflict has emboldened human rights abusers to act with impunity and left communities at risk feeling abandoned," said Laetitia Bader, Horn of Africa director at Human Rights Watch.

"As evidence of atrocities mounts, world leaders should support the creation of an international investigative mechanism and the UN Security Council should put Ethiopia on its formal agenda."

Roundups, Killings, and Mistreatment in Custody

In the early morning hours of November 3, as Adebai residents headed to Abune Teklai church in town to pray, local security forces at the church ordered the men to congregate for a meeting while telling the women to leave, four residents said. A 20-year-old student said:

As word of the roundup spread, six Tigrayan men whom researchers interviewed were among the many who ran in panic; some went home or to neighboring fields to evade arrest. Four witnesses said Amhara militia members shot or attacked those trying to flee with machetes, axes, knives, or sticks. A 26-year-old man fleeing to the fields saw armed men on motorbikes shooting at people including his 70-year-old uncle. He later saw his uncle's body, and those of two other men, including an older man he knew. "They were shooting at anyone who was behind," he said. "[My uncle] wasn't even running ... they still shot him. I saw the guy shooting at him and him falling."

Four witnesses said the Fano militia proceeded to go house-to-house searching for Tigrayans. A farmer hiding at home watched as a group of 30 to 40 armed men attacked his neighbor, a mechanic in his mid-twenties:

Amhara forces took those captured to detention sites: some to the town's police station, others to a former sorghum mill used as a makeshift detention site near the Enda Roto petrol station, on the town's eastern outskirts.

In the following days, the men who had escaped survived by hiding on farmland but continued to come under attack, three residents said. The 20-year-old student heard gunshots on November 7 and later saw bodies near a reservoir three kilometers northeast of Adebai:

Bodies remained unburied, so that "the whole town smelled and was filled with dead bodies," said one man. Four other residents said they saw dead bodies on the outskirts of town.

Roundups, beatings, and detentions of Tigrayan civilians also occurred in the towns of Humera and Rawyan. A 37-year-old farmer from Humera said he witnessed roundups and the killing of an older man with a physical disability nicknamed "Lingo" on November 5. On his way home the farmer saw militias telling Lingo "to stand up and, when he couldn't, they started beating him ... with machetes, axes, and stones." Two days later, the farmer learned that Lingo was beaten so badly that he died.

Four people who made it to Sudan said that armed forces on the Ethiopian border shot at them as they tried to cross. A 14-year-old boy who crossed on November 23 said that as his group arrived in Dima, the last Ethiopian village before the border, forces in military clothing "started shooting and telling us to stop, and when we kept running, they captured one of us and killed another one." He said a third person was missing following the incident.

Roundups, Expulsions of Older People, Women, and Children

During the roundups in Adebai, Humera, and Rawyan, Amhara forces separated and eventually expelled younger children, women, and older and vulnerable Tigrayans toward Central Tigray.

In Humera, two witnesses and three family members who spoke to people there at the time said that Amhara forces put people in about 20 trucks that left town on November 20. The expulsions continued the following day, including of children and young mothers, said one witness. A similar number of vehicles left that second day, said one resident.

The roundups of Tigrayans similarly began in Rawyan on November 20. Four witnesses and two family members said that Amhara militias and Fanos in coordination with the town's administrators rounded up Tigrayans. They went house-to-house and "collected all Tigrayans at the school," said one driver, who was among those held. He noted that town administrators issued instructions to militias:

One boy said that the militias registered him and other youth and released them. Men and older teenagers remained detained in the village ward offices and flour mill.

In Adebai, militias loaded some of the Tigrayan men they arrested on November 3 onto Isuzu and other pickup trucks and took them away, four residents said. The roundups continued in the weeks that followed, when women and older people were also arrested and taken away.

Family members of those expelled soon lost touch with loved ones. A student said he last received a phone call from his sister on November 28 or 29 as armed forces were putting her and their mother on a truck in Adebai and taken away:

A farmer described the last phone call he had with his two daughters and niece on November 23:

Satellite imagery collected between November 19 and December 5 confirmed that there were open-back vehicles along the main road that crosses Adebai, and burned spots and large amounts of debris along the road.

Mistreatment in Mass Detention Sites

Thousands of Tigrayan detainees are estimated to be held in overcrowded detention sites in Western Tigray. Three former detainees held in Bet Hintset prison in Humera, one of several detention sites in the town, described appalling conditions with frequent beatings, torture, insults, and the denial of food and medicine by Amhara regional special police. A daily laborer arrested in July and held in Bet Hintset prison, also controlled by Amhara regional police, until his escape in mid-November described being kept in a 3-by-4-meter room with up to 200 people:

Forget showers, we couldn't use toilets. They didn't give us food or water, even [at times] when our family brought us food, they wouldn't let us ... a lot of people were falling ill ... dying ... I'm talking daily, daily ... I'm very sure of 30 bodies ... only from our room, 7 people died, all of them were above the age of 70.

He described a regular schedule of severe beatings, in which Fanos would torture groups of detainees by beating their hands, heads, chests, and genitals using sticks or the butt or the muzzle of a rifle. Another detainee, also arrested in mid-July and held at Bet Hintset said:

With the expulsion of some relatives in November on whom detainees had relied on for food, survivors and relatives were concerned about those still detained. One 55-year-old man said, "I'm so worried about what they are eating in the prisons, because I know they won't give them food and all the family members that they had, who used to bring them food were taken. I'm sure a lot of people are dying." Another resident said: "I fear those detained will all be killed."

Read the original article on HRW.

Africa: Can Tobacco Harm Reduction Make its Way Through a Powerful and Complex Cultural, Political and Economic System?

17 DECEMBER 2021
allAfrica.com

By Marie Camara


The E-cigarette summit – science, regulation, and public health, took place on the 7th and 8th of December, 2021.

A growing number of scientific studies show that heated tobacco and electronic cigarettes among other innovative alternatives are potentially less harmful than traditional cigarettes.

Many consider these as low-risk alternatives to smoking that can prevent millions of premature deaths and cases of major disease.

Clive Bates is a strong advocate of Tobacco Harm Reduction (THR). After years in the public sector in United Kingdom and in the United Nations, he has founded and directed ‘Counterfactual’, a consulting and advocacy practice focused on a pragmatic approach to sustainability and public health. In a session titled: ‘The new tobacco wars’, he lamented what he called a « desperate search for harm », he developed his views on the current situation of THR and shared the main obstacles that prevent what he considers safer alternatives, from prospering internationally.

The biggest problem, according to him, is the abuse of the correlation between harm and those alternative products to cigarettes. He tackled a lack of transparency and professionalism while citing a study published in November 2020 in the ‘American Journal of Medicine Open’ which said that there was a correlation “between electronic cigarette use and fragility fractures among US adults”. However, the study itself recognized a few facts that Clive Bates considered as alarming and questionable flaws. They wrote, “the cross-sectional nature of our study design limits our ability to make causal inferences between e-cigarettes and fragility fractures”. They also stated that “for some individuals, e-cigarette use may have started after fracture occurrence and diagnosis”. Clive Bates qualified the report as absurd. He stated “the real danger was that none of that stopped them making a causal claim in a press release that came out before the paper. We see way too much of that negligence in my view.”

Clive Bates also mentioned the ‘communication war’ that has led to a misunderstanding and misconception of alternatives to tobacco. He said that 34% of the UK population believe that these alternatives are more or equally harmful compared to smoking.
To support his view, he then showed a flyer from an American organization named ‘DrugFreeNJ’. In their visual document they stated in the middle of the page: “Vaping is as safe as skydiving without a parachute.” The flyer also indicated a website where people could “learn the truth about vaping”. The UK expert could not hide his discontent:

“That is obviously wrong. Skydiving without a parachute causes instant and immediate and certain death. That is not what vaping does. But that is the normal form of blatant miscommunication here”.

The media, as well, was presented as potentially misleading the public as he talked about an article published by The Brussels Times published on the 10th of November 2021, about THR products: “These products are falsely marketed as safer and more sustainable options to deadly cigarettes, misleading consumers, media, and international institutions”.

Clive Bates responded to this statement as follows: “What they are basically saying is that e-cigarettes and heated tobacco are no different than cigarettes. This is accepted by over 40 organizations and professors from all continents according to the authors themselves and it’s a big lie.”

Low-and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs) have the largest number of smokers in the world with 800 million according to the World Health Organization.

Many think that most opposition to vaping and more largely innovative alternatives, is based not on evidence but on “underlying ideological issues, moral positions, vested interests, political considerations and financial considerations to name just a few” as stated on the conference website.
Clive Bates tackled what he called “the lust of prohibition” in countries where means and infrastructure lack dramatically and where abstinence is considered by many as the most effective approach. He often cited the philanthropic organization Bloomberg Philanthropies which has financed a large number of reports which aim at decreasing the number of smokers notably, in LMICs. However, what is harmful for the UK expert, is that this rhetoric denies access to a better health to the majority of smokers who cannot or will not quit.

The main argument of the WHO and other organizations are that those alternatives do not protect youth and could, at some point, be even more dangerous. The youth is “weaponized” against anti-vaping campaigns according to Mr Bates: “if vaping is successful, it will undermine the relevance and prestige of groups who oppose it”, he added.

As a conclusion, Clive Bates stated two main reasons for this strong opposition:

- “Cultural inertia: a large number of people conceive of themselves as warriors against an evil (tobacco) industry. That is a very hard culture to shake off.”

- “Institutional inertia”: “a massive machine constructed to fight smoking consisted of research infrastructures, a whole international treaty, conferences and so on…and also regulators who are deeply involved, and philanthropists who put over a billion dollars into organizations…”

He then added: “You put them together and there you have a formidable complex that was dedicated to fighting smoking which now in my opinion, swivels its guns towards the new thing (alternatives to traditional cigarettes) in order to remain relevant”

Nevertheless, he remained optimistic. For him, the status quo can evolve thanks to technology just as now we have electric vehicles in the automobile industry, fossil fuels are changing to renewable energy, people listen to digital music, …:

“The interesting thing about these technological advances is that each time they are tried the user gets a benefit and therefore there is a rapid uptake and the technology that came before becomes naturally obsolete. I

Pandemic Spawns New Wave of Anti-Migrant Sentiment

December 18, 2021 
Lisa Schlein

Migrants gather outside their tents at Karatepe refugee camp,

 on the northeastern Aegean island of Lesbos, Greece, Nov. 25, 2021.

GENEVA —

Marking International Migrants Day, the United Nations reports hostility and xenophobia are growing against migrants. It warns the stigmatization and marginalization of migrants amid a raging pandemic is putting many lives at risk.

U.N. agencies report one seventh of the global population, or one billion people, are on the move. This number includes a record 281 million international migrants, and 84 million people forcibly displaced by conflict, violence, and climate change.

Director-General of the International Organization for Migration, Antonio Vitorino, says many migrants embark on dangerous, life-threatening journeys in search of better economic opportunities, others are forced from their homes because of natural and man-made disasters.

He says many of these vulnerable people fall into the hands of unscrupulous people smugglers operating along migration routes worldwide. He says COVID-19 has worsened the difficulties migrants encounter.

"Beyond the images of closed borders, separated families and economic instability, the now two-year-old global pandemic has spawned a new wave of anti-migrant sentiment and the increasing instrumentalization of migrants as tools in state policy. Both are unacceptable,” Vitorino said.

Instead of being a liability, he underlines the invaluable contributions migrants make across the world. He says migrant workers—nurses, health care workers--have kept millions of people safe from COVID. He says migrant remittances have provided a lifeline for families made destitute by the pandemic.

"The positive social and economic impact in the countries where they reside, and the 540 billion US dollars remitted last year to communities in lower and middle-income countries are measures of the industry, entrepreneurship and community from which we all benefit,” Vitorino said.

And, yet he notes too many governments continue to exclude migrants from their pandemic social and economic recovery plans because of their legal status.

U.N. and international organizations are appealing to governments to grant migrants access to lifesaving COVID-19 vaccines. To do otherwise, they say would pose a threat to the health of all people.

Nigeria: Climate Change Poses Serious Threat to Nigeria's Huge Oil Production

Facebook

WhatsAppFlipboardLinkedInRedditEmaShare

(file photo).

18 DECEMBER 2021

Leadership (Abuja)

By Chika Izuora

A new study by risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft has revealed that Nigeria may face difficulty producing its huge oil and gas reserves.

The study states that Africa's number two exporter Nigeria, where reserves are concentrated around the Niger Delta river system, droughts and flooding present threats.

The report further said, apart from Nigeria, much of the world's reserves of oil and gas is under threat from rising tides, storms, floods and extreme temperatures caused by climate change.

Access to the equivalent of 600 billion barrels or 40 per cent of the world's recoverable oil and gas reserves could be affected by the wild weather, with major producers Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Nigeria among the most vulnerable, the UK-based firm wrote in a research note.

Climate change confronted the industry this year when extreme cold weather pummelled the main U.S. oil, gas and refining hub on the Gulf Coast, leading to long outages and reduced output.

"These types of events are going to become more frequent and more extreme, creating even greater shocks within the industry, said, environmental analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, Rory Clisby.

Just over 10 per cent of the world's commercially recoverable reserves are in areas rated by the consultancy as extreme risk, while nearly a third were deemed high risk.

For Saudi Arabia, extreme heat, water shortages and dust storms could be the "Achilles' heel" for the top oil exporter, the researchers found.

#KASHMIR IS #INDIA'S #GAZA
India and Pakistan fought 3 wars over Kashmir – here’s why international law and US help can’t solve this territorial dispute

An armed conflict in Kashmir has thwarted all attempts to solve it for three quarters of a century.

Kashmir, an 85,806-square-mile valley between the snowcapped Himalaya and Karakoram mountain ranges, is a contested region between India, Pakistan and China. Both India and Pakistan lay claim to all of Kashmir, but each administers only part of it.

Map of Kashmir. Central Intelligence Agency, Washington, 2002, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons

During the British rule of India, Kashmir was a feudal state with its own regional ruler. In 1947, the Kashmiri ruler, Maharaja Hari Singh, agreed that his kingdom would join India under certain conditions. Kashmir would retain political and economic sovereignty, while its defense and external affairs would be dealt with by India.

But Pakistan, newly created by the British, laid claim to a majority-Muslim part of Kashmir along its border. India and Pakistan fought the first of three major wars over Kashmir in 1947. It resulted in the creation of a United Nations-brokered “ceasefire line” that divided Indian and Pakistani territory. The line went right through Kashmir.

Get your news from people who know what they’re talking about.Sign up for newsletter

Despite the establishment of that border, presently known as the “Line of Control,” two more wars over Kashmir followed, in 1965 and 1999. An estimated 20,000 people died in these three wars.

International law, a set of rules and regulations created after World War II to govern all the world’s nation-states, is supposed to resolve territorial disputes like Kashmir. Such disputes are mainly dealt with by the International Court of Justice, a United Nations tribunal that rules on contested borders and war crimes.

Yet international law has repeatedly failed to resolve the Kashmir conflict, as my research on Kashmir and international law shows.

International law fails in Kashmir

The U.N. has made many failed attempts to restore dialogue after fighting between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, which today is home to a diverse population of 13.7 million Muslims, Hindus and people of other faiths.

In 1949, the U.N. sent a peacekeeping mission to both countries. U.N. peace missions were not as robust as its peacekeeping operations are today, and international troops proved unable to protect the sanctity of the borders between India and Pakistan.

In 1958, the Graham Commission, led by a U.N.-designated mediator, Frank Graham, recommended to the U.N. Security Council that India and Pakistan agree to demilitarize in Kashmir and hold a referendum to decide the status of the territory.

India rejected that plan, and both India and Pakistan disagreed on how many troops would remain along their border in Kashmir if they did demilitarize. Another war broke out in 1965.

In 1999, India and Pakistan battled along the Line of Control in the Kargil district of Kashmir, leading the United States to intervene diplomatically, siding with India.

Since then, official U.S. policy has been to prevent further escalation in the dispute. The U.S. government has offered several times to facilitate a mediation process over the contested territory.

The latest U.S. president to make that offer was Donald Trump after conflict erupted in Kashmir in 2019. The effort went nowhere.

Why international law falls short

Why is the Kashmir conflict too politically difficult for a internationally brokered compromise?

The maharaja of Kashmir agreed to join India in 1947.

For one, India and Pakistan don’t even agree on whether international law applies in Kashmir. While Pakistan considers the Kashmir conflict an international dispute, India says it is a “bilateral issue” and an “internal matter.”

India’s stance narrows the purview of international law. For example, regional organizations like the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation cannot intervene on the Kashmir issue – by convening a regional dialogue, for example – because its charter prohibits involvement in “bilateral and contentious issues.”

But India’s claim that Kashmir is Indian territory is hotly debated.

In 2019, the Indian government abolished the 1954 law that gave Kashmir autonomous status and militarily occupied the territory. At least 500,000 Indian troops are in Kashmir today.

Pakistan’s government denounced the move as “illegal,” and many Kashmiris on both sides of the Line of Control say India violated its 1947 accession deal with Maharaja Singh.

The U.N. still officially considers Kashmir a disputed area. But India has held firm that Kashmir is part of India, under central government control, worsening already bad relations between India and Pakistan.

Military coups and terror

Another obstacle to peace between the two nations: Pakistan’s military.

In 1953, Indian Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and Pakistani Prime Minister Mohammad Ali Bogra agreed in principle to resolve the Kashmir problem through a U.N. mediation or with an International Court of Justice proceeding.

That never happened, because the Pakistani military overthrew Ali Bogra in 1955.

Several more Pakistani military regimes have interrupted Pakistani democracy since then. India believes these non-democratic regimes lack credibility to negotiate with it. And, generally, Pakistan’s military governments have preferred the battlefield over political dialogue.

Terrorism is another critical factor making the Kashmir situation more complex. Several radical Islamist groups, including Lashkar-e-Toiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed, operate in Kashmir, based primarily on the Pakistani side.

Since the late 1980s the terrorist groups have conducted targeted strikes and attacks on Indian government and military facilities, leading the Indian military to retaliate in Pakistani territory. Pakistan then alleges that India has breached the borderline, defying international treaties like the 1972 Simla Agreement to conduct its anti-terror attacks.

India has increased its military presence in Kashmir to at least 500,000 troops. 

Yawar Nazir/Getty Images

Intractable struggles

In many cases, treaties and international court decisions cannot be enforced. There is no international police force to help implement international law.

If a country ignores an International Court of Justice ruling, the other party in that court case may have recourse to the Security Council, which can pressure or even sanction a nation to comply with international law.

But that rarely happens, as such resolution processes are highly political and any permanent Security Council member can veto them.

And when conflicting parties are more inclined to view a conflict through the lens of domestic law – as India views Kashmir and Israel views the Palestinian territories – they can argue that international law simply does not apply.

Kashmir is not the only contested territory where international law has failed.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict over the Gaza and West Bank territories is another example. For decades, both the U.N. and the United States have repeatedly and unsuccessfully intervened there in an effort to establish mutually acceptable borderlines and bring peace.

International law has grown and strengthened since its creation in the 1940s, but there are still many problems it cannot solve.

Author

Bulbul Ahmed
Assistant Professor, Department of International Relations, Faculty of Security and Strategic Studies, Bangladesh University of Professionals

Deforestation making outdoor work unsafe for millions, says study


Rise in temperatures and humidity linked to forest loss has reduced safe hours for working in the tropics

Labourers (SCAFFOLDERS) at a construction site in Jakarta, Indonesia. 

Photograph: Mast Irham/EPA


Sofia Quaglia
Fri 17 Dec 2021

Deforestation has made outdoor work unsafe for millions of people in the tropics over the past 15 years, a study has found.

The rise in temperatures and humidity caused by tree loss has reduced the number of safe hours in the day for people to work, especially for those performing heavy labour.

“Because of climate change, these areas in the tropics are already on the edge of what’s considered safe or comfortable for working in the late morning to afternoon,” said Luke Parsons, a climate researcher at Duke University in North Carolina and lead author of the paper published in the journal One Earth. “And then you take deforestation on top of that and it pushes these regions over into even more unsafe work conditions.”

A growing body of research has shown that deforestation is linked to an increase in local temperatures, as it decreases the cooling benefits trees bring to an area. For example, in the areas of the Amazon in Brazil which have been heavily deforested, over the past two decades the temperatures have been as much as 10C higher than forested regions.

For this study, the researchers parsed satellite and meteorological data between 2003 and 2018 in 94 countries with tropical forests, looking at temperature and humidity.

They found that almost 100,000 people, 90% of whom live in Asia, have lost more than two hours of work time a day. Almost 5 million people have lost at least half an hour of safe work time each day, the majority of them outdoor workers doing heavy physical labour.

The effects are disproportionately felt in deforested locations; in the Americas, 5% of forested areas lost at least half an hour of safe work time a day, while 35% of deforested areas suffered the same loss.

“We couldn’t go to every single location where people are working and measure when they stopped working,” said Parsons. “We can make this assessment of lost safe work time, but people may often in fact choose to continue to work when it is too hot and humid, at the detriment to their health.”

Continued global heating and forest loss is expected to amplify these impacts, reducing work hours for vulnerable groups even more over coming decades.

Exposure to heat could affect mood and mental illnesses, as well as reduce physical and psychological performance, including lapses in concentration, fatigue, irritability, increasing the risk of accidents, said Beatriz Oliveira, researcher at the Sergio Arouca National School of Public Health in Brazil, who was not involved in this study.

The researchers say their findings provide an economic incentive for local populations to maintain intact local forests on top of the environmental benefits.

Why are US rightwingers so angry? 

Because they know social change is coming

Rebecca Solnit

The American right might win the occasional battle – but they will never win the war against progress

‘We are dismantling the trophies of the ugly old world of sanctified inequality and erecting monuments to heroes of justice and liberation.’ 

Photograph: Steve Helber/AP
Mon 20 Dec 2021 

While their fear and dismay is often regarded as rooted in delusion, rightwingers are correct that the world is metamorphosing into something new and, to them, abhorrent. They’re likewise correct that what version of history we tell matters. The history we tell today lays the groundwork for the future we make. The outrage over the 1619 Project and the new laws trying to censor public school teachers from telling the full story of American history are a doomed attempt to hold back facts and perspectives that are already widespread.

In 2018, halfway through the Trump presidency, Michelle Alexander wrote a powerful essay arguing that we are not the resistance. We, she declared, are the mighty river they are trying to dam. I see it flowing, and I see the tributaries that pour into it and swell its power, and I see that once firmly grounded statues and assumptions have become flotsam in its current. Similar shifts are happening far beyond the United States, but it is this turbulent nation of so much creation and destruction I know best and will speak of here.

When a regime falls, the new one sweeps away its monuments and erects its own. This is happening as the taking down of Confederate, Columbus and other statues commemorating oppressors across the country, the renaming of streets and buildings and other public places, the appearance of myriad statues and murals of Harriet Tubman and other liberators, the opening of the Legacy Museum documenting slavery and mass incarceration and housing a lynching memorial.

There was no great moment of overthrow, but nevertheless we are dismantling the trophies of the ugly old world of sanctified inequality and erecting monuments to heroes of justice and liberation, from the Olympic track medalists of 1968 making their Black power gesture at San Jose State University to the Harriet Tubman Underground Railroad National Historical Park in Maryland. All those angry white men with the tiki torches chanting, in Charlottesville in 2017, “You will not replace us” as they sought to defend a statue of Gen Robert E Lee were wrong in their values and actions but perhaps not in their assessment.

White people are not being replaced, but in many ways a white supremacist history and society is. The statue of the general was removed earlier this year and will be melted down to be made into a new work of art under the direction of the Jefferson School African American Heritage Center. They call the project “swords into plowshares”, a phrase suggesting that this marks the end of a war – perhaps the civil war in which the north never fully claimed its victory, the south never accepted its defeat.

What’s happening goes far beyond public monuments. The statues mark the rejection of old versions of who we are and what we value, but those versions and values matter most as they play out in everyday private and public life. We are only a few decades removed from a civilization in which corporal punishment of children by parents and teachers was an unquestioned norm; in which domestic violence and marital rape were seen as a husband’s prerogative and a wife surrendered financial and other agency; in which many forms of inequality and exclusion had hardly even been questioned, let alone amended; in which few questioned the rightness of a small minority – for white Christian men have always been a minority in the United States – holding almost all the power, politically, socially, economically, culturally; in which segregation and exclusion were pervasive and legal; in which Native Americans had been largely written out of history; in which environmental regulation and protection and awareness barely existed.

You have to remember how different the past was to recognize how much has changed. Frameworks such as indigenous land acknowledgments that were unheard of and maybe almost inconceivable a few decades ago are routine at public events.

The Civil Rights Act passed in 1964; in 1965, with Griswold v Connecticut, the supreme court overruled state laws criminalizing birth control and laid the groundwork for Roe v Wade six years later; only in 2015, Obergefell v Hodges established marriage equality for same-sex couples (while equality of rights between different-sex couples had also gradually been established as marriage became a less authoritarian institution). The right is trying to push the water back behind the dam. With deregulation and social service and tax cuts, they have succeeded in reestablishing an economy of extreme inequality, but not a society fully committed to that inequality.

They have succeeded in passing laws at the state level against voting rights and reproductive rights, but they have not succeeded in pushing the majority’s imaginations back to 1960 or 1920 or whenever their version of when America was great stalled out. They can win the battles, but I do not believe they will, in the end, win the war.

While the right has become far more extreme and has its tens of millions of true believers, it is morphing into a minority sect. This has prompted their desperate scramble to overturn free and fair elections and other democratic processes. White Christians, who were 80% of the population in 1976, are now 44%. Mixed-race and non-white people are rapidly becoming the majority. On issues such as climate, people of color are far more progressive; if we can make it through the huge backlash of the present moment, the possibilities are dazzling.

These are relatively concrete changes. Others are subtler and more recent, but no less important. Even in the last decade there has been an epochal shift in our expectations of how we should treat each other, and the casual cruelty and disdain targeting women, queer people, Bipoc, the disabled and those with divergent bodies that pervaded entertainment and daily life are now viewed as repugnant – and are met with consequences in some contexts.

A regular experience of this era (for those of us who were around for the last one) is to revisit a song, a film, a book and find that we have now become people who can see better the insults and exclusions that were so seamlessly woven into it. Some of the old art has not weathered well and will fall out of circulation, as some old culture always does; some will be interpreted in new ways; some neglected treasures will move from margin to center. We – a metamorphosing “we” – are sifting through an old and building a new canon.

Even more profound than this is a shift in worldview from the autonomous individual of hypercapitalism and social darwinism to a recognition of both the natural and social worlds as orchestras of interdependence, of survival as an essentially collaborative and cooperative business. Disciplines from neuropsychology to economics have shifted their sense of who we are, what works, and what matters. Climate change is first of all a crisis, but it’s also a reminder that the world is a collection of interlocking systems. The just-deceased bell hooks talked about a “love ethic” that included “a global vision wherein we see our lives and our fate as intimately connected to those of everyone else on the planet”.

Birth can be violent and dangerous, and sometimes one or the other of the two involved die. There is no guarantee about what is to come, and the shadow of climate chaos hangs over it all. We do not have time to build a better society before we address that crisis, but it is clear that the response to that crisis is building such a society. So much has already changed. The river Alexander described has swept away so much, has carried so many onward.

It has come so far; it still has dams to overtop and so far to go.

Rebecca Solnit is a Guardian US columnist. Her most recent books are Recollections of My Nonexistence and Orwell’s Roses

FASCIST USA ON THE WAY

Millions of Angry, Armed  WHITE  Americans Stand Ready to Seize Power If Trump Loses in 2024

David H. Freedman 

Mike "Wompus" Nieznany is a 73-year-old Vietnam veteran who walks with a cane from the combat wounds he received during his service. That disability doesn't keep Nieznany from making a living selling custom motorcycle luggage racks from his home in Gainesville, Georgia. Neither will it slow him down when it's time to visit Washington, D.C.—heavily armed and ready to do his part in overthrowing the U.S. government.

Millions of fellow would-be insurrectionists will be there, too, Nieznany says, "a ticking time-bomb" targeting the Capitol. "There are lots of fully armed people wondering what's happening to this country," he says. "Are we going to let Biden keep destroying it? Or do we need to get rid of him? We're only going to take so much before we fight back." The 2024 election, he adds, may well be the trigger.

Nieznany is no loner. His political comments on the social-media site Quora received 44,000 views in the first two weeks of November and more than 4 million overall. He is one of many rank-and-file Republicans who own guns and in recent months have talked openly of the need to take down—by force if necessary—a federal government they see as illegitimate, overreaching and corrosive to American freedom.

The phenomenon goes well beyond the growth of militias, which have been a feature of American life at least since the Ku Klux Klan rose to power after the Civil War. Groups like the Proud Boys and the Oath Keepers, which took part in the January 6th riot at the Capitol and may have played organizational roles, have grown in membership. Law enforcement has long tracked and often infiltrated these groups. What Nieznany represents is something else entirely: a much larger and more diffuse movement of more-or-less ordinary people, stoked by misinformation, knitted together by social media and well-armed. In 2020, 17 million Americans bought 40 million guns and in 2021 were on track to add another 20 million. If historical trends hold, the buyers will be overwhelmingly white, Republican and southern or rural.

America's massive and mostly Republican gun-rights movement dovetails with a growing belief among many Republicans that the federal government is an illegitimate tyranny that must be overthrown by any means necessary. That combustible formula raises the threat of armed, large-scale attacks around the 2024 presidential election—attacks that could make the January 6 insurrection look like a toothless stunt by comparison. "The idea that people would take up arms against an American election has gone from completely farfetched to something we have to start planning for and preparing for," says University of California, Los Angeles law professor Adam Winkler, an expert on gun policy and constitutional law.

Both Democrats and Republicans are rapidly losing faith in the integrity of U.S. elections. Democrats worry that voter suppression and election interference from Republican state officials will deny millions of Americans their say at the polling booths. A PBS NewsHour/ NPR/ Marist poll in early November reported that 55 percent of Democrats saw voter suppression as the biggest threat to U.S. elections. Republicans claim, contrary to the evidence, that Democrats have already manipulated vote counts through fraud to steal a presidential election. An October CNN poll found that more than three-quarters of Republicans falsely believe Joe Biden's 2020 election win was fraudulent.

According to the Constitution, Congress and the Supreme Court are supposed to settle those sorts of dueling claims. Given the growing intensity and polarization of political life, would either side accept a decision that handed a contested 2024 election result to the other?

Such a decision would more likely bring tens of millions of protesters and counter-protesters into the streets, especially around the U.S. Capitol and possibly many state capitols, plunging the country into chaos. Although many Democrats might be inclined to demonstrate, a larger percentage of Republican protesters would almost certainly be carrying guns. If the Supreme Court ruling, expected in mid-2022, on New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen establishes an unrestricted right to carry a gun anywhere in the country, bringing firearms to the Capitol in Washington, D.C. could be perfectly legal. Says Winkler: "The Supreme Court may be close to issuing the ruling that leads to the overthrow of the U.S. government."

If armed violence erupts the 2024 elections, quelling it could fall to the U.S. military, which may be reluctant to take arms against U.S. citizens. In that case, the fate of the nation might well be decided by a simple fact: a big subset of one of the two parties has for years been systemically arming itself for this very reason.

"I hope it's just too crazy to happen here," says Erica De Bruin, an assistant professor of government at Hamilton College, who studies coups around the world. "But it's now in the realm of the plausible."

Enemy at the Gates

Many Republicans are increasingly coming to see themselves less as citizens represented by the federal government, and more as tyrannized victims of that government. More than three-quarters of Republicans reported "low trust" in the federal government in a Grinnell College national poll in October; only a minority of Democrats agreed. From this point of view, peaceful elections will not save the day. More than two out of three Republicans think democracy is under attack, according to the Grinnell poll, which echoes the results of a CNN poll in September. Half as many Democrats say the same.

© Probal Rashid/Getty Security forces respond with tear gas after the US President Donald Trump's supporters breached the US Capitol security. Probal Rashid/Getty

Mainstream news publications are filled with howls of protest over political outrages by Republican leaders, who are reflecting the beliefs of the party mainstream. But the small newspapers in the rural, red-state areas that are the core of the Republican party's rank and file are giving voice to a simpler picture: Politics are dead; it's time to fight. "Wake up America!" reads a September opinion piece excoriating Democrats in The Gaston Gazette, based in Gastonia, N.C. "The enemy is at our gates, God willing it is not too late to turn back the rushing tide of this dark regime." The piece goes on to quote Thomas Paine's exhortation to colonists to take up arms against the British. "We are in a civil war," a letter published in September in The New Mexico Sun likewise warns Republicans, "between the traditional Americans and those who want to impose socialism in this country and thus obtain complete government control of its citizens."

Evidence that a significant portion of Republicans are increasingly likely to resort to violence against the government and political opponents is growing. More than 100 violent threats, many of them death threats, were leveled at poll workers and election officials in battleground states in 2020, according to an investigation by Reuters published in September—all those threat-makers whom Reuters could contact identified as Trump supporters. In October 2020, 13 men were charged with plotting to kidnap Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat; all of them were aligned with the political right. Nearly a third of Republicans agree that "true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country," according to a September poll conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute, a non-partisan group. That's three times as many as the number of Democrats who felt the same way.

Guns are becoming an essential part of the equation. "Americans are increasingly wielding guns in public spaces, roused by persons they politically oppose or public decisions with which they disagree," concludes an August article in the Northwestern University Law Review. Guns were plentiful when hundreds of anti-COVID-precaution protestors gathered at the Michigan State Capitol in May 2020. Some of the armed protesters tried to enter the Capitol chamber.

Those who carry arms to a political protest may in theory have peaceful intentions, but there's plenty of reason to think otherwise. An October study from Everytown for Gun Safety and the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED) looked at 560 protests involving armed participants over an 18-month period through mid-2021, and found that a sixth of them turned violent, and some involved fatalities.

One indication of how far Republicans may be willing to go in violently opposing the government is their sanguine reaction to the January 6 insurrection at the U.S. Capitol. Republicans by and large see no problem with a mob of hundreds swarming and forcing their way into the seat of American government. Half of Republicans said that the mob was "defending freedom," according to a CBS/YouGov poll taken just after the insurrection. Today two-thirds of Republicans have come to deny that it was an attack at all, according to an October survey by Quinnipiac University. "There's been little accountability for that insurrection," says UCLA's Winkler. "The right-wing rhetoric has only grown worse since then."

Most Republican leaders are circumspect when it comes to supporting violence against the government, but not all. Former Milwaukee County Sheriff David Clarke, a controversial character who remains popular among many Republicans, reportedly told an enthusiastic gathering of Trump supporters in October that if and when a "serious" insurrection springs up, "there's very little you're going to be able to do about it."

Georgia Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, another prominent Republican popular with the rank and file, opined that the January 6 insurrectionists were simply doing what the Declaration of Independence tells true patriots to do, in that they were trying to "overthrow tyrants." The real threat to democracy, she added, are Black Lives Matter protesters and Democratic "Marxist-communist" agents. Greene and Representative Madison Cawthorn, a Republican from North Carolina, have referred to some of the insurrectionists as "political prisoners."

Trump himself, of course, has nurtured a constant undercurrent of violence among his supporters from the beginning of his first presidential campaign. In 2016 he publicly stated he could shoot someone in the street without losing any of his political support, and he went on to encourage attendees at his rallies to assault protesters and journalists. When demonstrators at a rally in Miami were being dragged away, Trump warned that next time "I'll be a little more violent." At a 2016 rally in Las Vegas, he openly complained to the crowd that security wasn't being rough enough on a protester they were removing. "I'd like to punch him in the face, I'll tell you," he said.

Today Trump openly declares the January 6 rioters to be "great people." In October, he suggested that Republicans might not want to bother to vote in the 2022 or 2024 elections because of their concerns over fraud in the 2020 election. At the same time, he declared that he would achieve an "even more glorious victory in November of 2024." The notion that Republicans could turn their backs on voting booths while sweeping Trump to glory only makes sense if Trump envisions a path to taking power that doesn't require votes.

Republicans approve of that sort of talk. The October Quinnipiac poll found that while 94 percent of Democrats insist Trump is undermining democracy, 85 percent of Republicans say he's protecting it.

Where the Guns Are

In his acclaimed history of the early days of the American Revolution, "The British Are Coming," author Rick Atkinson explains one major reason why America became the first British colony to succeed in winning freedom, where others had failed. "Unlike the Irish and other subjugated peoples," he writes, "the Americans were heavily armed." Muskets, he points out, were "as common as kettles" among the colonists, and American riflemen were among the world's finest marksmen. That possession of and skill with guns, combined with the colonists' deep passion for ridding themselves of what they saw as government tyranny, would help carry the day against otherwise long odds.

© Chuck Liddy/Getty On display at a gun shop in Wendell, N.C., an AR-15 assault rifle manufactured by Core15 Rifle Systems. Chuck Liddy/Getty

Today the many Republicans who have convinced themselves that they, too, must cast off a tyrannical government have plenty of guns. Americans own about 400 million guns, according to the Switzerland-based Graduate Institute of International and Development Studies in Geneva. (The U.S. government doesn't track gun ownership.) The vast majority of those guns belong to Republicans. Gallup found that half of all Republicans own guns, nearly three times the rate of gun ownership as among Democrats. Gun owners are overwhelmingly male and white and are more likely to live in the rural south than anywhere else. Those demographics mesh neatly with the hard-core segment of the Republican party.

Gun sales have spiked wildly in the past two years. About 17 million people, or more than six percent of the population, bought 40 million guns in 2020 alone, according to research from Harvard and Northeastern Universities. Sales for 2021 are on track to add another 20 million to the total, according to gun-industry research firm Small Arms Analytics & Forecasting.

While there's data to suggest Democrats are stepping up their modest share of the gun-buying, recent history suggests that the great majority of these guns are going to Republicans. According to a 2017 Pew Research Center survey, Republicans and Republican-leaning independents were more than twice as likely to own a gun as their Democratic counterparts.

Former Iowa Representative Steve King, long known as someone unafraid to say out loud what many other Republicans are thinking, is confident that his party is better armed. "Folks keep talking about another civil war," he posted to Facebook in 2019. "One side has about 8 trillion bullets... Wonder who would win?"

The impulse for violent insurrection among Republicans is getting some of its energy from the mostly Republican gun-rights movement, and vice-versa. That's a relatively new phenomenon. The right to own guns was long a passionate cause of conservatives, without ever posing much apparent threat to democracy. But that's changing fast.

In 2000, 60 percent of gun owners cited hunting as the reason they bought guns, according to a Gallup poll. Many of the rest listed "sport," which generally means target shooting. But by 2016, 63 percent were saying they bought guns for self-defense. That shift was brought on by growing paranoia about street crime and mob violence, a fear constantly pumped up on Fox and other right-wing media, which have long been conjuring up the notion that urban gangs and other trouble-makers are increasingly running rampant through suburbs and beyond.

Over the past four years those fears have been blurring into anti-government, pro-Trump, and in some cases white-supremacist movements. "We've seen the flourishing of a different view of gun rights, one that focuses on the necessity of owning guns in order to fight a tyrannical government," says Winkler. "The promotion of that idea has made it all the more likely that some people will come to see the government as a tyrannical one that needs to be overthrown." The resulting gun-rights-driven, anti-deep-state radicalism echoes throughout Republican-heavy social media and other communications channels.

The gun industry didn't create that conflation of gun ownership and an imminent patriotic armed uprising, but it has amplified it. A 2020 article on the website of AZ Big Media, Arizona's largest business-news publisher, advised readers this way: "If you're waiting to buy the firearm you've been eyeing for a while, now is the time. Don't wait until the presidential election. We don't know what's going to happen, but regardless of who is elected into office, the chaos and violence are likely to grow larger."

Palmetto State Armory, a gun-parts manufacturer and gun retailer out of Columbia, South Carolina, puts it this way on their website: "Our mission is to maximize freedom, not our profits. We want to sell as many AR-15 and AK-47 rifles as we can and put them into common use in America today," adding that doing so "safeguards the rights of the people against tyranny." A 2019 Drew University study noted that one out of four of gun manufacturers' most-viewed YouTube videos invoked patriotism. "There's a commercial interest feeding that sense of needing guns to defend against the government," says Risa Brooks, a political scientist at Marquette University.

The National Rifle Association played a big role in pumping up the "own guns to protect America from leftist tyranny" theme. "If the violent left brings their terror to our communities, our neighborhoods, or into our homes, they will be met with the resolve and the strength and the full force of American freedom in the hands of the American people," said NRA CEO Wayne LaPierre in 2017. That same year, an NRA spokesperson railed against Trump's opponents, adding: "The only way we stop this, the only way we save our country and our freedom, is to fight this violence of lies with the clenched fist of truth." There wasn't much question about what that fist would be clenching.

The NRA also put out the notion that gun-control policies enacted by Nazis and aimed at Jews were a critical enabling element of the Holocaust. That claim has been thoroughly debunked by historians, but Ben Carson, Trump's secretary of housing and urban development, publicly tied gun control to the Holocaust. Texas Senator Ted Cruz has also explicitly linked gun rights to fending off federal menace, stating that guns "serve as the ultimate check against governmental tyranny." Trump himself hinted at the darkest of connections between gun ownership and taking down a Democrat-led government, proposing during his first presidential campaign that the "Second Amendment people" might be able to stop Hillary Clinton if she won.

How It Might Go Down

What might lead to large-scale armed threat or even violence around the 2024 elections? There may be only one narrow path to avoiding it: A comfortable, incontestable win by Trump, assuming he's the Republican candidate. Democrats might despair at the loss, but it's not likely that they will go into mass protests against what could be seen as a legitimate election win.

But if Trump loses, by any margin, and is unable to overturn the results through legal or political means, it seems likely Republicans will declare the election fraudulent. In 2020, the conviction—against all evidence—that Trump had the presidency stolen from him brought an insurrectionist mob to the U.S. Capitol. The mob was mostly unarmed, undoubtedly thanks to Washington D.C.'s strict gun-control laws

.

© Michael Reynolds/Getty U.S. President Donald Trump (L) sits beside Executive Vice President and CEO of the National Rifle Association (NRA) Wayne LaPierre (R), during a meeting on Trump's Supreme Court nomination of Neil Gorsuch in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on February 1, 2017 in Washington, DC. Michael Reynolds/Getty

In 2024, that sort of mob, which will have been fed for four years on false claims of a "Big Steal" and exhortations to fight back against tyranny, will likely be far, far larger. If gun-control laws are weakened by the Supreme Court, they will also likely be heavily armed. In addition to Washington, D.C., the ACLED report found that Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Oregon face the largest risk of armed uprisings in contested elections, followed by North Carolina, Texas, Virginia, California, and New Mexico. But shortly after the January 6 insurrection, the FBI warned that all 50 state capitols were at risk. "There has been a recent and worrisome effort to frame showing up with guns as an appropriate way to challenge an election result you don't like," says Marquette's Brooks.

If Trump wins, but by a small margin that Democrats can attribute to Republican laws and tactics aimed at suppressing Democratic votes, massive protests around the country are inevitable. Democrats won't have to stretch their imaginations to make that claim: In 2021, 43 states proposed more than 250 laws limiting voting access. Georgia slashed the number of ballot boxes, a practice almost always aimed at communities with high percentages of minority residents. Iowa closed down most early voting. Arkansas upped the requirement for voter ID. And Utah made it easier to selectively purge voters from its lists.

If Trump loses on votes, but the loss is overturned by the actions of partisan state election officials, legislatures or governors in key battleground states, and that reversal is protected by a Republican Congress or the Supreme Court, protests are again inevitable. And again, that sort of reversal is far from implausible: There are 23 states where Republicans control both the legislature and the governorship, including several of the battleground states. In 2022 Republicans stand to gain control of three more key states—Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Any state controlled by one party is in a good position to try to overturn an election vote, as Trump and many Republicans urged state officials to do in 2020. "We've seen a trend of Republican governors and legislatures appointing party officials more willing to claim voter fraud, and giving themselves more power to undermine elections at a local level," says Hamilton College's De Bruin. For these and other reasons, America has been steadily dropping on the widely cited Freedom in the World ranking of countries by how democratic they are. The US has fallen from the company of large, Western European countries to end up today alongside Ghana and Mongolia.

Whatever the circumstances that might bring on large-scale protests from Democrats in 2024, their presence in the streets could bring out armed Republican counter-protesters bent on protecting Trump's nominal win and, in their minds, defending democracy against left-wing mobs. "It's a fair concern that If Trump called on them to come out and suppress the mobs, they might respond," says Lindsay Cohn, associate professor of national security affairs at the U.S. Naval War College.

Nieznany, the Vietnam vet, insists that if Democratic protests include any violence, as was the case with several Black Lives Matter protests in 2020 in mostly isolated instances, then right-wing counter-protesters will be justified in shooting. "Rocks, bottles and bricks can kill you as fast as a bullet will," he says. That's the sort of logic that in August 2020 brought Kyle Rittenhouse and his AR-15-style rifle to a Black Lives Matter protest in Kenosha, Wisconsin, where he shot three protesters, killing two, claiming self-defense. A jury acquitted him of all charges.

Based on their actions at protests in recent years, police forces can be counted on for a strong response—against the Democratic protesters, that is. The ACLED found that the police used force in Black Lives Matter protests more than half the time but only a third of the time at right-wing demonstrations. In any case, few police forces are prepared to effectively come to grips with tens of thousands of armed protesters.

Enter the Military

If police can't or won't deal with an armed uprising, the last hope for a peaceful resolution would probably be the National Guard and military. Only the governor can call out the National Guard in a state, and only the president can deploy the military. To send in the military to quell disturbances on U.S. soil, the president must invoke the Insurrection Act, last used in 1992 by then-President George H. W. Bush to help restore order during the Los Angeles riots.

Joe Biden would likely still be president at the initiation of election-related violence, so if the National Guard were unable to quiet things down in one or more states—or if a governor refused to call in the Guard—it would fall squarely on Biden's shoulders to make that call. He wouldn't need any state government cooperation to do it. "It would be an entirely legitimate role for the American military in those circumstances," says Kori Schake, director of foreign and defense policy studies at the American Enterprise Institute.

The National Guard or military would almost certainly prevail in shutting down the worst of the violence and protecting the government. But two key questions arise: Would military leadership accept Biden's orders to deploy against an armed uprising? And if it did, would the rank and file follow their commanders' orders to take up arms against fellow Americans whose motivations might resonate with many of their own?

The military leadership still feels chastened by the outcry after Gen. Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, accompanied Trump to a photo op across a Lafayette Square forcibly cleared of peaceful protesters in June 2020, says Brooks. "They're going to be reluctant to get involved," she says. "The military takes an oath to the Constitution, not to a particular president." Biden, too, is likely to see calling in the military as a last resort, she adds. But if the situation is dire, and Biden seems justified in making the call, the leadership will comply, whatever their misgivings, she says.

As for the possibility that the Guard or military rank and file might refuse to follow orders to take up arms against armed Trump supporters, the Naval War College's Cohn deems it unlikely. "There isn't a ton of evidence that the rank and file are solidly behind Trump," she says. "But whatever their beliefs, they're highly professional. No more than a tiny percentage would refuse."

She points out that Trump worked hard to align himself with the rank and file, even while distancing himself from military leadership. And yet there was little sign of overt support from the rank and file when Trump was trying to whip up mobs in January to support his baseless claims of election fraud—even though former Trump National Security Advisor and retired Army General Michael Flynn was at the same time openly calling for the military to take control of the government.

Absent a strong response from some combination of police, National Guard and military, it's easy to see how Republicans would be in a position to essentially take control of the country simply by virtue of their massive arsenal. "Both sides might be equally convinced of the illegitimacy of the other's actions," says Winkler. "What's asymmetric is the capability to inflict violence."

Let's hope it doesn't come to that, and that there's a relatively peaceful resolution to what's likely to be a contentious, hotly disputed election. But that result isn't assured. And even if any conflict ends quietly before it gets too far, experiencing a near-miss might leave our already fragile democracy more weakened and vulnerable. It's hard to say what it would take to repair it.

Nieznany may speak for millions when he insists it's too late. "There are too many of us ready to give our lives to take the country back," he says. "We need a civil war."