Monday, February 07, 2022

USW Supports Section 232 Deal with Japan

PR Newswire

PITTSBURGH, Feb. 7, 2022

PITTSBURGHFeb. 7, 2022 /PRNewswire/ -- United Steelworkers (USW) International President Tom Conway issued the following statement today in response to the announcement that the United States and Japan reached an arrangement on Section 232 relief measures:

United Steelworkers. (PRNewsFoto/United Steelworkers)
United Steelworkers. (PRNewsFoto/United Steelworkers)

"President Biden and his administration from day one pursued initiatives and policies that promote fair trade and preserve domestic jobs. Nowhere has this commitment been more pronounced than in its careful evaluation of the Section 232 relief measures for steel and aluminum.

"The USW was a fierce advocate for the original 232 measures, but we have always maintained that it's crucial to consider the unique circumstances surrounding each of our trading partners.

"The arrangement with Japan, which leaves aluminum 232 measures in place and sets tariff rate quotas on steel, demonstrates that President Biden understands that we must move beyond the less-effective, one-size-fits-all approach of the previous administration.

"Through this deal, the administration was able to negotiate steel import volumes that provide for the continued success of our domestic industries while maintaining opportunities to work together with Japan to address global overcapacity and other areas of mutual concern.

"In particular, 'melted and poured' requirements will ensure that steel imports from Japan are actually produced there, which will help stem circumvention and allow workers in both countries an opportunity to succeed.

"Far too many U.S. workers and their communities have fallen victim to the non-market predatory practices of China and other countries. We commend the administration for its commitment to working toward a larger trade policy that preserves our national security and allows our critical industries to thrive."

The USW represents 850,000 workers employed in metals, mining, pulp and paper, rubber, chemicals, glass, auto supply and the energy-producing industries, along with a growing number of workers in health care, public sector, higher education, tech and service occupations.

Amazon Is Raising Base Salary Cap to $350,000 From $160,000



Spencer Soper
Mon, February 7, 2022,

(Bloomberg) -- Amazon.com Inc. is more than doubling the maximum base salary it pays employees to $350,000 from $160,000.

“This past year has seen a particularly competitive labor market, and in doing a thorough analysis of various options, weighing the economics of our business and the need to remain competitive for attracting and retaining top talent, we decided to make meaningfully bigger increases to our compensation levels than we do in a typical year,” the company told employees Monday in a memo reviewed by Bloomberg.

Amazon also said it was increasing the compensation ranges of most jobs globally and is changing the timing of stock awards to align with promotions.

Like many big employers, Amazon has struggled to hire and retain workers of late. The company has long relied on stock awards, betting it can entice workers to take positions even if the base pay is low. But the stock languished in 2021, gaining just 2.4% while the S&P 500 jumped 27%, and the strategy began to lose its appeal. Media reports indicate the turnover rate inside Amazon has reached crisis levels, and a record 50 vice presidents departed last year.

Amazon’s salary hike was reported earlier by Insider.

The e-commerce giant employed 1.6 million globally as of Dec. 31, including warehouse workers who are paid hourly and office staff who earn annual salaries. Amazon declined to say how many employees would receive the bump in pay announced on Monday.

Amazon pays warehouse workers at least $15 an hour and in September said it had raised average wages for these employees to $18 an hour. During the pandemic, the company has spent heavily on its logistics operation, hiring hundreds of thousands of people and paying bonuses to new recruits.

Investors have been warily watching Amazon’s rising costs and expressed relief when the company reported a strong fourth quarter last week and said an annual Prime subscription would rise $20 to $139. The shares soared almost 14% on Friday and were up another 1% to $3,174.47 at 1:35 p.m. Monday in New York.

(Updated with number of employees, context.)
Syria's Kurds Wanted Autonomy. 
They Got an Endless War.


Jane Arraf
Mon, February 7, 2022

Thousands of mourners at the funeral in Qamishli, Syria, on Feb. 2, 2022, of 12 fighters from the Kurdish-led forces who recently fought an ISIS attack on a prison in the city of Hasaka. 
(Diego Ibarra Sanchez/The New York Times)

QAMISHLI, Syria — Suad Shukri arrived early one morning last week to visit her son’s grave. An hour later, the small cemetery would be thronged by thousands of mourners burying 12 fighters from a Kurdish-led force who were killed battling the recent Islamic State attack on a prison in northeast Syria.

But for the moment, she had the place — its hundreds of graves adorned with plastic flowers — almost to herself. Her son, Eli Sher, was also killed fighting the Islamic State group, but that was six years ago near the Syrian city of Raqqa. He had joined a Kurdish militia when he was 13 and by the time he died at 16, he was already a veteran fighter.

“This is our life,” Shukri said of this vulnerable corner of the Middle East.

Not long after the start of Syria’s civil war 10 years ago, the Kurdish minority that dominates the country’s northeast set up an autonomous region as an experiment in multiethnic, gender-equal self-rule. But ever since, the Kurds have been engulfed in a seemingly endless war, subject to the whims of their more powerful neighbors, most notably the regime of President Bashar Assad in Damascus and Turkey to the north.

The latest threat is a familiar one — the Islamic State group.

The terrorist group reared its head again recently, three years after the main military power in this region, the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces or SDF, drove the militants from the last patch of their self-declared caliphate in Syria and Iraq with the help of a U.S.-led military coalition.

On Jan. 20, Islamic State suicide bombers and gunmen attacked a prison in the city of Hassakeh in an attempt to free some 4,000 suspected Islamic State fighters held there. The city is part of the autonomous region, and the SDF, backed by U.S. military might, fought for almost two weeks before it regained control.

The attack was viewed as a sign of an Islamic State resurgence in the area. But days after it was put down, the U.S. staged a daring commando raid on another part of northern Syria that ended in the death of the Islamic State group's leader, Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi.

President Joe Biden, in announcing the successful operation, singled out the SDF for praise, calling the force “essential partners,” without saying whether they had played a role in the raid.

Still, despite a close military partnership with the United States that has lasted for years, the Syrian Kurds face a precarious future.

The autonomous region, encompassing roughly the third of Syria east of the Euphrates River, was created in 2012, breaking away from Syrian government control after the start of an uprising against Assad’s authoritarian rule the previous year. In one of the most complicated battlefields in the world, U.S. forces share space in the region with Russian troops allied with the Assad government, allowed in by the SDF as protection against a Turkish incursion.

In this uneasy coexistence, major cities in the region are split between Syrian government control and local control. Residents who study or work in the government-controlled territory line up at a checkpoints, waiting to be allowed through. But many are too afraid of arrest to venture there.

The Kurds call the region Rojava, which means “the West.” It is an allusion to western Kurdistan and a long-standing but seemingly unattainable dream of an independent state that would stretch over the Kurdish areas of Syria, Iraq, Iran and Turkey.

All those countries have historically oppressed their Kurdish populations, and the more than 25 million Kurds who live in them are considered the world’s largest ethnic group without a state. In Syria, they account for up to 10% of the population of 18 million.

At least 55% of the roughly 4.6 million people live in the autonomous region are Kurds, according to the regional administration. But there are also large numbers of Arabs and Assyrian Christians, along with smaller populations of Turkmen, Armenian, Circassian and Yazidi minorities.

“In Syria and Iraq, there were sectarian wars,” said Abdul Karim Omar, the head of the Kurdish region’s international relations department. Within his own region, he said, “we have maintained social peace and coexistence.”

The regional administration relies on a network of multiethnic, multireligious councils. Each major committee is headed by both a woman and a man. Women play a prominent role as fighters, including on the front lines.

While some are not as strong in reality as on paper, those steps to ensure diversity and gender equality are a far cry from most countries in the Middle East.

Still in its short life, the Kurdish-led region has faced persistent security and economic threats from almost all sides, including from the Syrian government and Iraqi Kurdish neighbors to the east. But it is Turkey that looms the largest.

Outside the office building where Omar tries to craft policy for a region that has political autonomy but is not recognized by any government, the lights of the Turkish city of Nusaibeen twinkle across a high wall a few hundred yards away.

Turkey, which has battled Kurdish militants at home for decades, invaded areas held by the Syrian Kurdish-led forces to push them back from the border. Turkey considers the SDF a security threat because of its links to a Kurdish guerrilla movement that has been fighting an insurgency against the Turkish state for decades.

The operation was endorsed by President Donald Trump, who withdrew U.S. forces from some Kurdish-led areas after a phone call with the Turkish president. This allowed Turkey’s Syrian proxies to move in.

The Iraqi Kurds have close economic ties with Turkey, and last month the dominant Kurdish party in Iraq closed the Iraqi Kurdistan region’s border with the Kurdish-led region in Syria. That left shops on the Syrian side empty of sugar and other staples.

On a recent day, long lines of people shivering in the winter cold waited with jerrycans to buy kerosene outside fuel stations. At checkpoints, choking plumes of black smoke rise from burning tires set alight by security forces to keep warm.

Mazlum Kobani, the head of the region’s security forces, blamed Turkish pressure for the Iraqis’ closure of the border, which included stopping exports of oil sold by the Kurdish-led region in Syria to Iraqi Kurds — a main source of revenue.

“We are both Kurds,” Kobani said of his Iraqi Kurdish neighbors, “and we must help each other out. But they have interests with Turkey.” The security chief, who is on Turkey’s most-wanted list, spoke from a base he shares with U.S. forces. He chose the location to deter Turkey from launching a drone strike to kill him.

During the war with the Islamic State group years ago, the SDF struck up a critical partnership with the U.S.-led military coalition that was battling the militants in Syria and Iraq. The militia was considered the most potent ground force when it came to fighting the extremist group.

The prison attack in January drew the U.S. military back into the fight, and escalated into the most intense urban clashes with the Islamic State in the three years since the end of the caliphate.

Kobani told The New York Times that after the prison attack, the 700 U.S. troops in his region are no longer enough.

“I you ask me, I would say we need more American troops,” he said.

All told, the SDF, which currently has between 80,000 to 100,000 fighters, says it has lost about 13,000 members in the war to drive the Islamic State group out of the region since 2014. In the recent prison battle, 43 SDF fighters were killed.

These days, armored fighting vehicles with American flags waving drive along the highways, trying to keep out of the way of Russian forces with the help of deconfliction measures that entail providing advance notice of each other’s movements.

The Syrian Kurds are under little illusion though that they can count on the U.S. to protect them in the long run. The only thing for certain in this corner of Syria seems to be that its future depends almost entirely on forces beyond its control.

At the cemetery in Qamishli on Wednesday, one thing did seem certain — that in this militarized society, a new generation would take up the fight.

Jeyan Hassary, 16, had come with her friends to mourn the 12 dead fighters. She already knew what she wanted to do with her life.

“My dream is to carry the guns of my grandfather and uncle to avenge their blood,” she said.

© 2022 The New York Times Company
Is the Coronavirus in Your Backyard?

Emily Anthes and Sabrina Imbler
Mon, February 7, 2022

Suresh Kuchipudi, a veterinary microbiologist at Penn State University, with Cashew, a young white-tailed deer in the university's deer research center in State College, Pa., on Feb. 2, 2022. 
(Hannah Yoon/The New York Times)

In late 2020, the coronavirus silently stalked Iowa’s white-tailed deer. The virus infected large bucks and leggy yearlings. It infiltrated a game preserve in the southeastern corner of the state and popped up in free-ranging deer from Sioux City to Dubuque.

When scientists sifted through bits of frozen lymph node tissue — harvested from unlucky deer killed by hunters or cars — they found that more than 60% of the deer sampled in December 2020 were infected.

“It was stunning,” said Vivek Kapur, a microbiologist and infectious disease expert at Penn State, who led the research.

Kapur and his colleagues have now analyzed samples from more than 4,000 dead Iowa deer, diligently marking the location of each infected animal on a map of the state. “It’s completely mad,” he said. “It looks like it’s everywhere.”

From the start of the pandemic, experts were aware that a virus that emerged from animals, as scientists believe SARS-CoV-2 did, could theoretically spread back to animals. Mink have garnered much attention after the virus spread through mink farms in Europe and North America, leading to massive culls of the animals. But white-tailed deer, which may wander into urban and rural backyards, are also easily infected.

Infections in free-ranging deer, which display few signs of illness, are tricky to detect and difficult to contain. Deer also live alongside us in dizzying numbers; about 30 million white-tailed deer roam the continental United States.

If white-tailed deer become a reservoir for the virus, the pathogen could mutate and spread to other animals or back to us. Adaptation in animals is one route by which new variants are likely to emerge.

“This is a top concern right now for the United States,” said Dr. Casey Barton Behravesh, who directs the One Health Office — which focuses on connections between human, animal and environmental health — at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“If deer were to become established as a North American wildlife reservoir, and we do think they’re at risk of that, there are real concerns for the health of other wildlife species, livestock, pets and even people,” she added.

The virus is likely to continue circulating in deer, many experts predicted. But crucial questions remain unanswered: How are deer catching the virus? How might the pathogen mutate inside its cervid hosts? And could the animals pass it back to us?

White-tailed deer are a “black box” for the virus, said Stephanie Seifert, an expert on zoonotic diseases at Washington State University: “We know that the virus has been introduced multiple times, we know that there’s onward transmission. But we don’t know how the virus is adapting or how it will continue to adapt.”

Cervid surge


The coronavirus enters human cells by attaching to what are known as ACE2 receptors. Many mammals have similar versions of these receptors, making them susceptible to infection.

Early in the pandemic, scientists analyzed the genetic sequences for ACE2 receptors in hundreds of species to predict which animals might be at risk. Deer ranked high on the list, and laboratory experiments later confirmed that the animals could become infected with the virus as well as transmit it to other deer.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service began looking for coronavirus antibodies in blood samples from deer in Illinois, Michigan, New York and Pennsylvania. In July, the agency reported that 40% of the animals in those areas had antibodies, suggesting that they had already been infected by the virus.

Some months later, Kapur’s team, which partnered with the Iowa Department of Natural Resources, reported that active coronavirus infections were common in Iowa deer, and another group announced that more than one-third of the deer they had swabbed in northeastern Ohio were infected. Genomic analysis suggested that in both Iowa and Ohio, humans had passed the virus to deer multiple times and then the deer readily passed it to one another.

“The early detections in companion animals, in mink farms, in zoological collections — those were all different because those were confined populations,” said Dr. Andrew Bowman, a veterinary epidemiologist at Ohio State University, who led the Ohio research. “We didn’t really have a natural setting where the virus could run free.”

Whether the virus makes deer sick remains unknown. There is no evidence that infected deer become seriously ill, but humans might not notice if a wild animal was feeling slightly under the weather.

And these early studies — which have largely relied on preexisting disease surveillance or population control projects in deer — provided only a snapshot of what could be a sprawling problem. “I wouldn’t be surprised if more sampling uncovers the fact that these are not necessarily sporadic events,” said Dr. Samira Mubareka, a virologist at Sunnybrook Research Institute and the University of Toronto.

In Canada, reports of infected deer are beginning to trickle in from Ontario, Quebec and Saskatchewan. When Mubareka’s team sequenced virus recovered from Canadian deer, the researchers found it closely matched sequences in Vermont. “Deer don’t respect borders,” said Arinjay Banerjee, a virologist at the University of Saskatchewan.

‘No masking, no social distancing’


How humans are transmitting the virus to deer remains an open question. “It’s definitely a mystery to me how they’re getting it,” said Dr. Angela Bosco-Lauth, a zoonotic disease expert at Colorado State University.

There are many theories, none entirely satisfying. An infectious hunter might encounter a deer, Mubareka noted, but “if they’re good at hunting,” she added, “it’s a terminal event for the deer.”

If an infected hiker “sneezes and the wind is blowing in the right direction, it could cause an unlucky event,” said Dr. Tony Goldberg, a veterinary epidemiologist at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. Or if people feed deer from their porch, they could be sharing more than just food.

And white-tailed deer are expert leapers, reaching heights of 8 feet. “If you want to fence deer out of a place, you have to be trying very hard,” said Scott Creel, an ecologist at Montana State University. Deer would have no trouble jumping into alfalfa fields to graze alongside cattle, perhaps inviting a close encounter with a farmer, Creel said.

Transmission could also happen indirectly, through wastewater or discarded food or other human-generated trash. “Deer, like most other animals, will sniff before they eat,” Kapur said. And deer release their feces as they feed, creating conditions where other deer might forage in areas contaminated with waste, or snuffle around waste that has feed mixed in, experts say.

But it’s not clear how long the virus would remain viable in a polluted water source or on the surface of a half-eaten apple, or whether enough of it would be present to pose a transmission risk.

An intermediate host, such as an itinerant cat, might ferry the virus from humans to deer. Farmed deer, which have frequent contact with humans, might also pass the virus to their wild counterparts through an escapee or their feces, Seifert said. (More than 94% of the deer in one captive site in Texas carried antibodies for the virus, researchers found — more than double the rate found in free-ranging deer in the state.)

It may not require many spillovers for the virus to take off in a herd. Infected deer, which shed virus in nasal secretions and feces and have an infectious period of five to six days, can readily spread the virus to others, said Dr. Diego Diel, a virologist at Cornell University.

Wild deer are social — traveling in herds, frequently nuzzling noses and engaging in polygamy — and swap saliva through shared salt licks.

And unlike humans, deer have no tools for flattening the curve. “They don’t have rapid antigen tests,” Banerjee said.

Kapur added, “No masking, no social distancing.”

Dr. Sarah Hamer, a veterinary epidemiologist at Texas A&M University, is seeking funding to start contact tracing of deer to understand how their social interactions influence viral transmission. She hopes to use proximity loggers to record the time and duration of the animals’ interactions with one another. “What deer are hanging out with what deer?” Hamer said. “Are there deer superspreaders?”

Research is still in early stages, but understanding how the virus is spreading is essential both for slowing transmission in deer and for protecting other vulnerable wildlife. Deer may graze alongside other cervids, such as boreal woodland caribou, which are endangered in Canada and are a traditional food source of First Nations peoples.

And if humans are contaminating the wilderness with the virus, it could threaten other, highly endangered species, such as the black-footed ferret, which experts fear may be vulnerable to the virus. “If it’s in the environment, and we don’t know exactly how it’s in the environment or how it’s spreading, all of a sudden we have these endangered animals that are at even higher risk,” said Kaitlin Sawatzki, a virologist at Tufts University.

Knowing how we are giving the virus to deer is also crucial for assessing the risk that they may pass it back to us. “The metaphorical window is open, and we don’t know where,” Bowman said.

Herd immunity

The virus is clearly spreading in deer. But what happens next, and how worried should we be?

Many experts said they expected the virus to become established in deer and circulate indefinitely. “If it’s not already established, it’s heading in that direction,” Mubareka said.

Still, scientists said they needed longer-term data to be sure, and the outcome was not a given. Currently, people appear to be reintroducing the virus to deer frequently; but if human case rates fell substantially, and people stopped spreading the virus, it could disappear from deer populations.

Moreover, deer do develop antibodies to the virus; if the antibodies are strong enough and enough deer develop them, literal herd immunity could squelch the spread. But scientists know very little about deer immunity. “Does exposure to one variant protect the deer population from subsequent variants?” Banerjee asked.

If the virus does establish itself in deer, it is likely to evolve in ways that help it thrive in its new hosts.

A deer-optimized version of the virus would not necessarily be more dangerous for people; the virus might adapt in ways that make humans less hospitable hosts. “If this became ‘Deervid,’ then that would be great,” Goldberg said. (“Hopefully it would stay benign in deer,” he added.)

But the virus could retain its ability to easily infect humans while picking up more worrisome mutations, including ones that might allow it to evade our existing immune defenses.

“Even if you got the human population immune and fully vaccinated, if there’s still a reservoir persisting in the animals, then that can allow the virus to continue to evolve,” said Linda Saif, a virologist and immunologist at Ohio State University.

There is not yet any evidence that deer are infecting people, and for the foreseeable future, experts agreed, humans are far more likely to catch the virus from one another than from anything with hooves.

“Even if deer were infecting people, it’s largely inconsequential in the grand scheme, because millions of people are getting infected from human-to-human transmission,” said Dr. Scott Weese, an infectious diseases veterinarian at the University of Guelph in Ontario. “But it becomes more of a risk as we start to control it.”

Hunters, who handle deer carcasses extensively, could be at higher risk for contracting the virus from deer, scientists said. (There is no evidence that people can be infected by eating deer meat cooked to an internal temperature of 165 degrees Fahrenheit.) People who hand-feed their local deer — a practice experts warn against — could also be at risk.

An abundance of ungulates


Other animals, too, may be at risk from infection from deer. Predators such as mountain lions which kill deer by biting into their trachea or over their nose and mouth, could be infected while feasting.

Scientists were relieved when early research suggested that cattle and pigs were minimally susceptible to the virus. But inside the bodies of white-tailed deer, the virus could morph into a pathogen capable of infecting such livestock.

“That could be a big problem for food production stability,” Seifert said.

Health officials must stay vigilant, experts said.

The USDA is now working with state agencies to collect blood samples and nasal swabs from dead deer in more than two dozen states. The work should help experts estimate how many deer have already been infected and whether certain characteristics, from age to habitat type, put some deer at elevated risk.

“As we learn more, we will continue to refine and target our surveillance,” said Dr. Tracey Dutcher, the science and biodefense coordinator for the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service at the USDA.

Long-term genomic surveillance is also needed, experts said. “If we start to see some really divergent viral variants popping up in deer in certain places, that would be a red flag,” Goldberg said.

Depending on what scientists learn in the near future, officials could consider a variety of potential mitigation measures, including vaccinating captive deer, thinning infected herds or cleaning up whatever environmental viral contamination is giving the deer the virus in the first place.

“I think we’ve got to get our hands around the situation before we really make plans on where to go,” Bowman said.

For now, scientists also advise keeping a close eye on other wildlife. If the virus is so prevalent in deer, which are relatively easy to sample, it could be silently spreading in other species, too.

After all, the only reason scientists found the virus in deer is because they thought to look. “We hadn’t realized it was spread in deer at all,” Kapur said. “We had no clue.”

© 2022 The New York Times Company
Biden task force proposes pro-union organizing rules for federal workers

TEAGANNE FINN
February 7, 2022

WASHINGTON — The White House worker organizing task force has proposed a series of pro-union rules for federal workers after President Joe Biden's pro-union stance faced congressional setbacks in his first year.

The White House Task Force on Worker Organizing and Empowerment, led by Vice President Kamala Harris, released a report Monday outlining nearly 70 recommendations to strengthen workers' organizing rights in the federal government.

"Unions have fought for and helped win many aspects of our work lives many of us take for granted today, like the 40-hour work week and the weekend, as well as landmark programs like Medicare," the report said.

Among its recommendations, the report includes efforts to ensure that federal contract dollars are not spent on anti-union campaigns and to help federal employees understand their rights to organize and bargain collectively, as well as to streamline union access.

"Four agencies — the Department of Labor, the Department of Defense, the Small Business Administration, and the Department of Health and Human Services — will act to expand awareness of workers’ organizing rights and employers’ responsibilities when workers are trying to organize," the report said.

Biden has accepted the recommendations, a White House official said, adding that the task force will submit a second report to the president in six months, which will describe progress and include additional proposals.

The task force, vice chaired by Labor Secretary Marty Walsh, is made up of more than 20 Cabinet members and heads of other federal agencies.

A group of congressional staffers announced Friday that they plan to organize a union for aides who work in lawmakers’ offices and for committees on Capitol Hill.

As Biden has observed, the report said, "unions built the middle class [and] lift up workers, both union and non-union."

Biden reiterated his pledge to be the most pro-labor president in September. “Labor will always be welcome. You know, you’ve heard me say many times: I intend to be the most pro-union president leading the most pro-union administration in American history," he said in honor of unions.

His first year in office coincided with national unrest among workers in industries from entertainment to manufacturing as the nation struggled under the Covid pandemic. Many low-wage workers suffered greatly but made gains by collectively leveraging their positions and challenging their workplace conditions.

Biden, who created the task force last year, has worked to undo rollbacks of worker protections during the Trump era. During the pandemic, he also increased production of personal protective equipment, issued stimulus checks and tax credits, expanded unemployment benefits, prevented furloughs and funded industries such as tourism, airline and rail.

His pro-labor position, however, faced significant congressional setbacks.

The Protecting the Right to Organize Act, which passed the House, has failed to advance in the Senate. The legislation would expand protections for workers' rights to organize and bargain collectively. It would also impose greater penalties for violations of workers rights by employers. It was included in the Build Back Better Act, which also stalled in the Senate.

Biden's $15-an-hour minimum wage was also barred from being included in the American Rescue Plan in the Senate.
WEST COAST USA
The Tsunami Could Kill Thousands. 
Can They Build An Escape?

Mike Baker
Mon, February 7, 2022

Houses on the edge of one of many sea-level canals in Ocean Shores, Wash. on Jan. 25, 2022. (Grant Hindsley/The New York Times)

OCEAN SHORES, Wash. — The 350 children at Ocean Shores Elementary School have practiced their earthquake survival plans, dropping under desks to ride out the convulsions, then racing upstairs to the second floor to await the coming tsunami.

Unless something changes, their preparations will most likely be futile.

The Cascadia fault off the Pacific Northwest coast is poised for a massive 9.0-magnitude earthquake at some point, scientists say, a rupture that would propel a wall of water across much of the Northwest coast within minutes. Low-lying coastal neighborhoods in Washington, Oregon and Northern California would be under 10 feet or more of water, with the elementary school in Ocean Shores facing an inundation that could be 23 feet deep.

The second-floor refuge that students rush to in their drills stands 13 feet off the ground — in a structure that was not built to withstand a raging tsunami.

“The fact of the matter is that if a tsunami occurs tomorrow, we are going to lose all of our children,” said Andrew Kelly, superintendent of the North Beach School District, which includes Ocean Shores. Kelly is one of a growing number of officials who are calling for a network of elevated buildings and platforms along the Northwest coast that could provide an escape for thousands of people who might otherwise be doomed in the event of a tsunami.

On Tuesday, voters in Ocean Shores and neighboring communities will decide whether to approve a bond measure that would, in part, build new vertical additions at two schools, offering students and nearby residents a place to flee from a surging ocean.

Scientists have been warning for years that another catastrophic quake could erupt at any time in the Cascadia subduction zone, a 600-mile-long “megathrust” fault that stretches from Vancouver Island, British Columbia, to Cape Mendocino, California.

A quake from the fault, located roughly 70 miles offshore, could cause land along the shore to immediately drop by several feet. The sudden movement under the sea would send massive waves toward shore. And while recent tsunamis caused by earthquakes and volcanoes in the Pacific Rim have resulted in small surges on the West Coast of the United States hours later, a Cascadia wave would arrive at shorelines within 15 minutes.

Along many stretches of the Northwest coast, there are no bluffs or high buildings to climb — nowhere to go.

The lack of evacuation options means that the death toll could be almost unfathomable, far surpassing any other natural disaster in U.S. history. In Washington state, according to a 9.0 scenario that the state uses for its estimates, about 70,000 people would probably be within the lowlands that could be engulfed by a large tsunami, and 32,000 of them would have no nearby high ground to escape to within 15 minutes.

Depending on the season and the time of day, Oregon estimates that 5,000 to 20,000 could die along the coast in a similar event, largely because of a lack of escape options; the state has planned for an even deadlier quake, based on the geological record, that could create a tsunami 100 feet high in some places. Additional deaths are expected in Northern California, notably in Crescent City, where a tsunami that came from Alaska killed 11 people in 1964.

The question, scientists say, is not if but when. The chance of a 9.0 megaquake on the Cascadia fault in the next 50 years, according to the research, is about 1 in 9; the odds of a smaller but still powerful earthquake — of a magnitude greater than 7.0 — are 1 in 3. Pressure is continuing to build along the hundreds of miles where the Juan de Fuca plate is pushing under the North American plate.

“Every day, on average, they are being pushed together at about the rate fingernails grow,” said Corina Allen, chief hazards geologist in Washington. “Every year that the earthquake doesn’t happen, there’s a higher chance that it will the next year.”

Officials over the years have posted signs for evacuation routes and plotted ways to move people to higher ground. But many communities remain painfully vulnerable.

In the Long Beach area of Washington, for example, several communities — home to thousands — lie along a flat, narrow peninsula that stretches more than 20 miles. Officials in recent years had considered building an artificial hill to help with tsunami evacuation but abandoned the idea when modeling showed it needed to be much higher than was feasible.

Perhaps nowhere is more vulnerable than Ocean Shores, a community of 6,700 residents, with thousands more who visit in the summer to enjoy the miles of pristine beach next to thundering waves. The town has little elevation, and the tsunami that could accompany a 9.0 rupture would wash over all of it.

People could try driving out, but officials expect roads to be buckled and sunken, or covered in power lines, trees and debris. The expected subduction would cause the entire area to abruptly sink up to 7 feet; the shaking could cause liquefaction of sandy soils before the tsunami reached shore.

People could try running to high ground outside of town, but Ocean Shores sits on a 6-mile-long peninsula. Those who live toward the southern end would be about 8 miles away from high ground. Depending on their location, residents might have only 10 minutes before the wave started washing over them.

“In 10 minutes, there’s not that much time to go very far,” Allen said.

The best option may be to get on a rooftop or to climb a tree. But many of the region’s buildings were not constructed to withstand such a quake, let alone a tsunami, which would be hurtling cars and logs and other debris.

Dozens of other waterfront communities are also at risk, researchers said, including Seaside, Gearhart and Tillamook, in Oregon; Crescent City and the Samoa Peninsula, near Eureka, in California; and areas up and down the Washington coast.

To improve the chances of survival, Washington officials have proposed a network of 58 vertical evacuation structures along the outer coast. They could provide 22,000 people with an option for escape, although thousands of others would remain out of range.

Each structure could cost about $3 million.

Vertical evacuation structures have been embraced in Japan for years, in the form of platforms, towers and artificial berms. They became a refuge for many in the 2011 earthquake and tsunami, although that event still killed more than 19,000 people.

In the Pacific Northwest, only two vertical evacuation structures have been built so far. One is an Oregon State University building in Newport. The other is a portion of Ocosta Elementary School in Washington. Other cities have considered but not yet built evacuation towers, including Seaside, Oregon, which relocated its middle school and high school to hills east of town.

In Tokeland, Washington, Charlene Nelson, chair of the Shoalwater Bay Tribe, said the tribe has been working for about 18 years on escape strategies. Their first recourse was a building up in the hills designed as an evacuation center, with supplies.

They ran practice events to get people to high ground, but one of the many families living on the narrow strip of land jutting into Willapa Bay found it took them 56 minutes by foot to get up to the center. The wave would most likely arrive in 20 minutes.

The tribe recently broke ground on a tower, largely funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, with pilings buried 51 feet in the ground and two elevated platforms that could hold hundreds of people.

Even when the structure is completed, Nelson said, people will need to practice their escape plans and know the routes to possible safety. They need a bag ready to go with key supplies — but not so many that it will slow them down when running for their lives. There won’t be time for hesitation or for figuring out which direction to head.

Aside from whatever damage a tsunami might bring, the earthquake itself would bring widespread devastation, with crumbling buildings, failing bridges, energy disruptions and mass casualties across a 140,000-square-mile area, including Seattle and Portland.

The last large quake on the Cascadia fault occurred on Jan. 26, 1700, scientists say. Chris Goldfinger, a researcher at Oregon State University, said geologic evidence from the past 10,000 years indicates that massive quakes with a magnitude of around 9.0 happen on the fault on an average of every 430 years. When including smaller but still powerful quakes on portions of the fault, the timeline in some areas shrinks to every 250 years.

It has been 322 years.

Bringing the expected casualty numbers down is difficult when the response planning has largely been left up to each community, Goldfinger said. A comprehensive federal solution with accompanying funding is needed, he said, and there is little time for delay given the amount of work needed to prepare.

“It’s going to dwarf the scale of any disaster we have ever had,” Goldfinger said. “We know it’s coming.”

© 2022 The New York Times Company
MONOPOLY CAPITALI$M
Brazil prosecutors ask antitrust body to block Oi mobile ops sale

Mon, February 7, 2022,

BRASILIA/SAO PAULO, Feb 7 (Reuters) - Brazil's prosecutor's office recommended that antitrust regulator Cade block the sale of Oi SA mobile operations to local rivals TIM SA , Telefonica Brasil's Vivo and Claro, a subsidiary of Mexico's America Movil.

The move sent shares in Oi - which is under bankruptcy protection - sharply down in early trading on Monday, while those of Telefonica's Vivo and Telecom Italia's TIM were also in negative territory.


Waldir Alves, who represents the prosecutor's office at Cade, said in a Sunday report the deal should be blocked due to a "competition violation," also mentioning "potential exclusionary practices."

Cade is expected to analyze the matter on Wednesday's agenda.

Analysts at Guide Investimentos said the move was negative for Brazilian telecoms, noting the market had already priced in the deal.

"Canceling the deal would drag telecom shares into a correction," Guide said in a research note.

Preferred shares in Oi dropped 3.4% to 1.70 reais, while Telefonica Brasil SA was down 2.35% at 48.54 reais and TIM fell 1%. Brazil's stock index Bovespa was down 0.1%.

TIM said in a statement the deal will boost competition, investments and technology development in the coming years, adding it will acquire most of Oi's assets.

The transaction has been under scrutiny since late 2020, when the three companies won the assets in an auction that was contested by rivals such as Algar Telecom. They submitted a joint bid of 16.5 billion reais ($3.12 billion).

The sale was approved by Brazilian telecom regulator Anatel last week. ($1 = 5.2962 reais) (Reporting by Ricardo Brito in Brasilia and Gabriel Araujo in Sao Paulo; Editing by Louise Heavens and Bernadette Baum)
CRIMINAL CRYPTO CAPITALI$M
NFTs suffer 'some' money laundering, manipulative flows that inflate prices


David Hollerith
·Senior Reporter
Sun, February 6, 2022,

Non-fungible tokens have seen a "significant" rise in manipulative practices that exaggerate prices, liquidity and launder money, according to new data — a growing fear as the sector turns increasingly volatile.

A report released Wednesday from blockchain analytics platform, Chainalysis, found “significant wash trading and some money laundering" does occur, with at least part of those questionable flows running through ultra-hot NFTs, a sub-sector of the growing cryptocurrency market.

Chainalysis data comes as Open Sea, the largest marketplace for buying and selling NFTs, had its best month yet in January with $4.9 billion in transaction volume, raising at least a few questions regarding exactly how much of the overall market is legitimate.

Many observers of the crypto market have been quick to suggest and even point out that the market is plagued by price manipulative practices such as wash trading, a practice in which traders take both sides of a sale to inflate its value.

Wash trading and money laundering are proving “extremely easy to trace on the blockchain” according to the firm’s director of research, Kim Grauer.


A surge in NFT transactions, mirroring the rise of cryptocurrency's popularity

Wash trading often boosts an asset's demand and underlying price, and is being increasingly cited in some NFT transactions. The practice can be pervasive in the crypto markets, which involve wallet addresses that can be created pseudonymously for free, with little effort.

While wash trading is illegal for conventional securities and futures instruments, it's not been actively enforced within the budding NFT movement. Sometimes, it is literally programmed into a platform's reward model.

Last month, Decrypt reported that a newer Ethereum (ETH-USD)-based NFT platform, LooksRare, saw a massive upswing in trading volume thanks to wash trading. That included a Meebits NFT sold for a jaw-dropping $100 million worth of trading volume in just two transactions.

Yet the data presented by Chainalysis shows that the practice is sometimes not even worth the effort.

“We found that by and large, [wash trading] really is not an attractive thing to do in the NFT space,” Grauer told Yahoo Finance.

Apart from how easily was trading can be traced, Grauer pointed to the high transaction costs (i.e. Ethereum gas fees) for trading NFTs.

Looking at a sample of buyers and sellers across multiple NFT marketplaces, the study tracked the profitability of 252 traders who they assumed with a high degree of confidence could be classified as habitual wash traders.

Each of these traders conducted NFT transactions at least 25 times between self-financing wallet addresses, meaning those funded by the sellers address or the address that funded the selling address. Of those habitual washers, the study found that only 110 profited, while the other 152 lost money. However, profitable wash traders still made out very well.

According to the report, the 110 profitable wash traders collectively made nearly $8.9 million, which dwarfed the $416,984 in losses made by the other 152 habitual wash traders.

“We don’t see wash trading as an effective or reliable way for criminals to make money because of both the cost spent on gas, the traceability, and the risk of no payout unless someone takes the bait,” Grauer added.

As Yahoo Finance has previously reported, money laundering in crypto assets is far easier to track than in government issued fiat currencies. The study found that the value in cryptocurrencies sent to NFT marketplaces from illicit wallet addresses reached $1.4 million in 2021.

Crime will likely rise as more investors show interest in NFTs. However, those sums are relatively small: Chainalysis previously found that $8.6 billion of illicit funds were laundered in on a total $44.2 billion worth of money that went to NFT marketplaces during the same period.
CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M
Tesla receives subpoena from SEC over 2018 settlement


Subrat Patnaik and Akash Sriram
Mon, February 7, 2022

Representations of virtual currency bitcoin are seen in front of Tesla logo in this illustration


(Reuters) - Tesla Inc said on Monday it received a subpoena from the U.S. securities regulator in November related to the SEC settlement that required top boss Elon Musk's tweets on material information to be vetted.

The disclosure in an annual filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission comes after Musk triggered a stock sell-off after asking his Twitter followers in November if he should sell 10% of his stake in the company.


As of last close, the electric-car maker's shares fell by nearly a quarter since the tweet. They were little changed in early trading on Monday.

The SEC's latest action, which the company did not elaborate on, adds to Tesla's pressure from federal auto safety regulators regarding vehicle recalls and investigations related to its driver assisting software.

The SEC did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Tesla in December was hit by a lawsuit over Musk's social media posts including his Twitter poll on stock sales that pulled down its stock prices. This was not the first lawsuit accusing Musk of violating his 2018 settlement.

In 2018, Musk settled a lawsuit by the SEC over his tweet on taking the company private, agreeing to have the company's lawyers pre-approve tweets with material information about the company.

As part of the same settlement, Musk also stepped down as chairman of the board, Tesla appointed two new independent directors and both parties paid $20 million penalty each.

Last week, Musk said in a court filing that a tweet he had posted in 2018 saying funding was secured to take Tesla private in a $72 billion transaction was "entirely truthful https://reut.rs/3ourjok."

Tesla and the White House have been at odds over the past few months, with the Biden administration focusing on legacy automakers including Ford Motor Co and General Motors in the electric vehicle race.

Last month, GM and Ford's CEOs attended a meeting of tech and auto companies hosted by U.S. President Joe Biden, however Musk was not part of the list of attendees.

Musk has been using his Twitter account to attack the Biden administration for ignoring Tesla, and holding up Detroit automakers as leaders in the shift to electric vehicles. Musk called Biden a "damp sock puppet" in a tweet last month.

Musk is also feuding with the United Auto Workers (UAW) union, a key ally of Biden. The National Labor Relations board in March ordered Musk delete a tweet that said Tesla workers could lose stock options if they voted to join the UAW. Tesla is appealing that order.

BITCOIN HOLDINGS WORTH $2 BLN

Tesla said on Monday the fair market value of the electric-vehicle maker's bitcoin holdings as of Dec. 31 was $1.99 billion.

The company, which had invested $1.50 billion in bitcoin last year, said it registered about $101 million in impairment losses last year due to the value of bitcoin.

A drop in the value of bitcoin resulted in the company recording losses, as the value of its holdings fell.

Tesla had also briefly accepted the cryptocurrency as payment for sales of certain products. However, Musk stopped accepting the digital currency, citing environmental concerns around the mining of bitcoin.

The company said it gained $128 million after selling a portion of its holdings in March. Tesla has not disclosed any change to its bitcoin holdings since.

(Reporting by Subrat Patnaik and Akash Sriram in Bengaluru and Joseph White in Detroit; Editing by Shounak Dasgupta)
Have private markets become too big to hide?
The SEC thinks so


Sat, February 5, 2022

A year has passed since Gary Gensler was nominated to his post as SEC chairman. In that relatively short time, the agency has drawn up an agenda for private markets that is quickly gaining steam.

Two pieces of news from recent weeks offer an indication of what the next few years could bring:

The Wall Street Journal reported in early January that the SEC is weighing rules to require more private companies to disclose information related to their finances and operations. Companies that are privately held often get around current reporting rules, which are based on the number of investors. Gensler and the SEC reportedly want to close those loopholes.

Then, on Jan. 26, the agency proposed a series of rule changes that call for more information disclosures, faster, from a larger pool of private equity and hedge funds. For both classes of investors, the rules would require next-day disclosures of significant events.

Taken alongside prior public comments by commissioners, these developments indicate that Gensler's SEC has momentous plans for the lightly regulated and highly opaque private market, which has become too big to hide from the SEC's purview.

The agency pegs the net assets of US private funds at around $11.5 trillion—$4.7 trillion of which is managed by hedge funds and $4.2 trillion by private equity funds. In the US alone, 340 companies became unicorns in 2021, more than were minted during the previous five years combined, according to PitchBook data. And more deployable capital is accumulating quickly, with PE firms raising over $300 billion and VC firms adding more than $128 billion in 2021.

On top of their size, private markets have attracted scrutiny for a series of market debacles. Last year, an unlikely trio of then-private companies—Citadel Securities, Robinhood and Reddit—were at the center of the weirdest public stock event in recent memory. There was the spectacular collapse of Archegos Capital, a highly leveraged fund that reportedly failed to meet its margin calls. And several high-profile SPAC deals drew charges of fraud from the SEC in their quest to take private companies public
.

The agency seems convinced that bringing transparency to the private sector is fundamental to its core mission to protect investors and improve the functioning of the markets.

To start, the SEC is concerned that private funds present a risk to investors. The performance of these funds is notoriously difficult to evaluate, especially after accounting for fee structures. The SEC recently detailed several common deficiencies among private fund managers, including misleading or inaccurate performance disclosures, along with inadequate due diligence of investments. (Our recent Global Fund Performance Report details several challenges of evaluating private strategies.)


And while limited partners are typically savvy investors who know the risks, the SEC is more concerned with the large swaths of Americans represented by those LPs.

"The people behind those funds and endowments often are teachers, firefighters, municipal workers, students and professors," Gensler said in a November speech to the ILPA, a lobbying group representing LPs.

The SEC also wants more people to have access to private markets, possibly by making additional changes to accredited investor rules. But if private markets open up to more investors, it stands to reason that the agency would want to make them more transparent, and maybe in effect more like public markets.

To be sure, many of the new disclosure requirements would require data to be shared confidentially—with regulators, not the investing public. In its most recent proposals covering hedge funds and PE firms, the SEC is focused on monitoring "systemic risks" posed by private markets.

Gensler is seeking rapid reporting requirements on fund managers as a way to alert the agency to crises-in-motion, thus giving regulators time to intervene. To accomplish that, the agency is proposing changes to Form PF, a quarterly filing that was born out of the 2008 financial crisis.

The thing about risks is that they change all the time, and it's unclear what exactly is keeping the SEC up at night.

"There is a rotation in the market due to a number of economic conditions such as inflation and supply chain issues," said Nicholas Tsafos, a partner at accounting firm EisnerAmper. "That rotation is causing a change in the risks that we're used to. [The SEC] wants to be proactive towards risks rather than reactive."

Whatever the source of these systemic risks, what they share in common is a threat to the smooth functioning of markets.

SEC Commissioner Allison Lee, who was appointed by then-President Donald Trump, argued in an October speech that today's opaque private markets pose similar risks to the ones that led the US to create the SEC in the aftermath of the Great Depression.

"We must consider whether the growing lack of transparency in capital markets will lead once again to the misallocation of capital that we saw at the inception of the federal securities laws," she said.

More transparency, the argument goes, leads to a more efficient market that lowers the cost for companies to raise capital and improves returns for LPs. That's the sweet spot that the SEC is trying to hit.

The PE and VC lobbyists aren't buying it. The American Investment Council, which represents the PE industry, contends that private equity "poses no systemic risk." And Bobby Franklin, head of the National Venture Capital Association, told the WSJ that a transparency push on private companies could result in "unnecessary burdens" and "unintended consequences."

Among the concerns that have been voiced: The threat of a reporting event could change how fund managers make decisions. New reporting requirements for private companies are a burden with no benefit to those businesses. And disclosures that add time and expense may do little in practice to protect investors or the broader market.

One thing seems clear: The SEC's push for greater transparency has developed into a core focus. And the political environment—a Democratic-controlled commission in a midterm election year—adds an incentive for further action. The result could be the most significant change to private market regulations since the fallout of the financial crisis.