Opinion: Will the Ukraine war plunge the world economy into a new crisis?

Russia's war against Ukraine is disrupting and likely stifling the world's economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. What comes next is unclear, but it's not going to be any better, thinks DW's Henrik Böhme.

Russia's war against Ukraine is changing the post-World War II global order

Crises and wars change much, if not everything. After World War II, a new world order emerged from the ruins, including the creation of the United Nations, in an attempt to never let such a devastating war happen again.

The global financial crisis from 2007 to 2009 caused governments around to the world to put financial markets on a tighter leash, strengthening oversight over banks and their complex products.

The COVID-19 pandemic buried concerns about digitization, as more people have finally come to cherish the advantages of remote working.

But now war has returned to Europe, unleashed by a man who thinks it's his duty to correct what he sees as past political mistakes. He is the president of a country that has all it takes to be an economic superpower: abundant mineral resources, a well-educated population and a rich culture.

Alas, this president has miserably failed to put this wealth to any good uses. The billions of dollars earned by the state from commodity sales haven't been spent on catching up with countries on the edge of technological progress. Instead, the "fat cats" — oligarchs and political elites — have squandered this wealth in a mad global race for the most luxurious yachts, the biggest real estate holdings and the most valuable football club.

Will sanctions hit the right ones?

Now we look on aghast at a war being waged brutally and with no clear idea of who will end it and how — how far is the man in the Kremlin ready to go?

We are also seeing unity among Western countries determined to impose sanctions of the utmost severity. The ruble is plunging, credit ratings have reached junk status and financial investors are leaving the country in droves.

But will these sanctions bring about the desired effects? Are they hitting those pulling the strings? Or is it once again the ordinary people again who are suffering? Those who can no longer buy their Levi's jeans and iPhones, or eat out at their local McDonalds?

DW senior business editor Henrik Böhme

At the same time, countries in western Europe are hurting, too. Strongly addicted to Russian gas and oil, they are concerned about how to shield their industries from the fallout of diminishing fossil fuel supplies. Many Europeans are anxious about the next winter and whether they'll be sitting in cold homes without these fuel supplies. Already, prices at the pump are going through the roof, with the price of oil reaching unprecedented highs.

This might just be the beginning: Nickel, for example, essential for steelmaking and provided to a large extent by Russia, became 50% more expensive virtually overnight. The same goes for palladium, aluminum and inert gases such as neon and xenon — Russia is a major producer of each.

Recipe for a global recession

Meanwhile, we're taking bets when the price of oil will crack the $200-a-barrel mark. But the safer bet is on a return of inflation to economies worldwide. If we're sure of anything, it's that prices won't be going down anytime soon.

All in all, this looks like a perfect storm for the global economy, which appears set on a course into the next economic crisis. 

People stand in line to withdraw money from an ATM of Alfa Bank in Moscow

And all of this in a situation when state coffers have been emptied by a pandemic that swallowed billions in government support. How are we to finance the rescue funds and economic stimulus packages looming around the corner?

In Europe, governments are already hastily cobbling together plans to wean their economies off Russian gas and oil. This is easier said than done and will come at a massive cost. Refilling the continent's gas storage with liquefied natural gas (LNG) rather than Russian gas will increase Europe's energy bill by an estimated €70 billion ($76 billion).

Making do without Russia?

On the other hand, Russia may be thinking twice before shutting off its pipelines to Europe. In February alone, Europeans paid €5.6 billion to the likes of Gazprom and Rosneft who, for example, currently earn between $70 (€64) and $90 for every oil barrel they sell. What usually helps in tight oil markets is pumping more of the crude to drive down prices. 

Even so, it may hurt the man in the Kremlin only so much. He's sitting on a pile of cash and has little debt to pay down. After all, he has a staunch ally backing him up. China is eager to secure raw materials of all kinds and new markets for its own products.

The billion-dollar questions — asked, perhaps, prematurely — are: How can we shape a relationship with Russia in the future? Can there be one?

First and foremost, the war against Ukraine must end. Only then can we think about how to reintegrate Russia into the global economy. Tackling this task could be as difficult as solving humanity's other pressing problems, like fighting climate change. This is only possible with Russia — but a Russia without Putin.  

This opinion piece was adapted from German. 

Ukraine war: How a 'fact-checking' website is spreading Russian propaganda

A website called "War on Fakes" is using false claims made by Ukrainian outlets to disseminate Russian propaganda. DW takes a look at what and who's behind it.

Russian propaganda and false claims are being used to discredit Ukraine

"The unprecedented stream of fake news about what is happening in Ukraine is intended to stir up emotions and eliminate rational thinking," the Russian Defense Ministry writes on Twitter, referring to the websitewww.waronfakes.com, where "a group of experts" and "journalists" are allegedly exposing the "most outrageous" false claims. But what is this alleged fact-checking site all about? DW's fact-checking team took a closer look.

The creators of the website, which was registered on March 1, claim there are signs of an information war against Russia. The website, they write, provides "objective publications" to make citizens less fearful and uncertain about what is happening. "Fact-checking" articles in English, French, Spanish, Chinese and Arabic are meant to show what is really going on in the war in Ukraine.

"War on Fakes" has been set up to reach an international audience

What is striking is that Russian, of all languages, is missing from this website. The aim, it appears, is to reach an international audience. The original Russian version of this website and the associated Telegram account are older, according to research by the Atlantic Council's DFRLab. The Telegram account was reportedly set up on February 23, the day before the war began. The first post appeared a day later. The account now has more than 625,000 subscribers and is one of the top Telegram channels in Russia, with a reach of more than 30 million daily views.

Both the Russian and English websites and the Telegram account are being heavily promoted on social media. For example, Russian television station RT quoted "War on Fakes" in a Telegram post on February 27.

Given that this channel itself has hundreds of thousands of followers, it is likely that much of the growth of "War on Fakes" is due to their promotion, and that of other accounts. Additionally, Russian embassies, like the one in France, have also featured it on their social media accounts, including Twitter.

The ploy of the website operators seems sophisticated: The authors debunk false claims, including those from the Ukrainian side that appear on this site as well. However, Russian propaganda is then used to provide background for the fact checks, as the following two examples show.

Russian soldiers also killed civilians

In one "fact check," the claim that a Grad multiple rocket launcher system, also known as BM-21, is being used against Ukraine is presented as false. In the process, a widely circulated video purporting to show the use of such weapons is revealed to be old — correctly so. In fact, a video from 2021 was passed off as current, as a reverse image search shows. 

However, the website "War on Fakes" does not deny the use of such missile systems at all. Its argument to explain the fact check is to claim that the Russian Defense Ministry has repeatedly emphasized that no missile, artillery or airstrikes are carried out on Ukrainian cities. This is false.

As reported by DW, the Russian military is also targeting cities. According to UN figures, at least 406 civilians have been killed so far, including 15 children, and 801 people have been injured, including 29 children (as of March 7).

Russia began its current war against Ukraine on Feb. 24

The website also uses another "fact check" to put Russia in a better light: This article analyzes the tweet of British journalist Larisa Brown, who works for The Times newspaper. On February 25, she shared a video of a man tearfully saying goodbye to his wife and child before they boarded a bus. Brown writes that these scenes are playing out across Ukraine, following the Ukrainian defense minister's decree that men between the ages of 18 and 60 remain in the country to defend Ukraine. The post gives the impression that the man is saying goodbye to his family, who are fleeing the Ukrainian war.

The "War on Fakes" authors reveal that the shared video is outdated and is about a family from the separatist Donetsk region who had already left for Russia on February 21, before the Russian military attacked Ukraine on February 24.

This is apparently true, as the Spanish fact-checkers of the website Maldita also revealed. The "War on Fakes" piece uses the disclosure of the false claim to say that the mother and the baby are now "no longer in danger," implying that they had to save themselves from the Ukrainians. This ignores the fact that the war in Ukraine started on February 24.

These examples show how the website purposefully uses false claims to portray Ukraine in a bad light, while at the same time spreading and substantiating Russian propaganda.

Contrary to its claims, the Russian military has been targeting cities

All the examples on the website are structured in the same way: Two to three sentences are used in each case to refute the alleged Ukrainian fakes, however, the claim is never properly addressed. The writers also don't provide evidence or methods used to expose the "fakes."

Who is behind the website?

So who runs "War on Fakes"? To find out who's behind it, we ran it through the who.is website. It revealed that the website was launched only very recently, on March 1, and focuses only on the war between Russia and Ukraine. The name of the operator is hidden, but an address in Moscow is given as a contact option. However, this address only leads to the company that registered the page.

The given phone number turns out to be a popular scam number previously used in 2019 to rip off people financially.  An analysis of the website using Scamadviser also shows that the website should be treated with caution. In a ranking up to 100 trust points, "War on Fakes" scores a single point.

There is no information on the site itself, nor does research reveal who these "journalists" and "fact-checkers" are who are publishing articles on the site and its corresponding Telegram accounts.

At this point, it cannot be said with any certainty who is behind "War on Fakes." But its sudden appearance, rapid growth, and widespread support from state-run Russian media raise questions about its origins and influence.

This article was originally written in German.

Ukraine War: The role of the Orthodox Churches

About 75% of Russians and 60% of Ukrainians profess to be Orthodox Christians. How are their churches responding to the war?

Patriarch Kyrill (left) has publicly given his support to the war

Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine is driving a wedge into the Orthodox Church. While the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill, has justified the war in Moscow, it has been condemned in the Ukrainian Orthodox churches, as well as by some priests in Russia.

"The Moscow Patriarchate had been silent about the war for a long time," explains Thomas Bremer in a video interview with DW. The professor of ecumenical theology, eastern European church studies and peace research at the University of Münster adds that this position has now changed with Patriarch Kirill, who presents Vladimir Putin's war as a legitimate resistance to Western values in his sermons in Moscow.

"He bases this on gay pride parades," explains Bremer, "which he claims were intended to be imposed on the Donbass."

In keeping with Putin's line and in accordance with the president's ban on reporting on the war or even calling it as such, the patriarch also did not use the word "war" for the invasion of Ukraine but spoke of "events" and "military actions."

The independent Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OKU) is led by Metropolitan Epiphanius

Religious diversity in Ukraine

While the Russian Orthodox Church is the primary church in Russia, Ukraine is characterized by religious diversity. Orthodox Christianity has had a turbulent history in Ukraine, especially since Ukrainian independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

Currently, two Orthodox churches exist in Ukraine. One is the independent Orthodox Church of Ukraine (OKU), led by Metropolitan Epiphanius. This church was recognized by Bartholomew I in Istanbul, who is considered the "spiritual leader" of the approximately 260 million Orthodox Christians worldwide.

On the other hand, there is the Ukrainian Orthodox Church (UOK), which is an autonomous church within the Russian Orthodox Church and has not often expressed itself politically in the past.

What is the position of the Orthodox churches in Ukraine?

Each of the two Orthodox churches in Ukraine has referred to the "war" by name and condemned it emphatically, Bremer said in an interview with DW. He added that while the OKU's reaction was to be expected anyway, even the patriarch of the UOK, which is after all a part of the Russian Orthodox Church, had spoken of an "invasion" of Ukraine on the very first day of the war and called on Putin to end it.

"The synod of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church even called on the patriarch in Moscow to use his influence on Putin and work for peace," Bremer notes. "But that was left out of the coverage in Russia. The horrors of war are not visible there at all."

Will there be a split in the church?

According to Bremer, the Moscow patriarch's failure to speak out for peace has led to many bishops of the UOK in Ukraine giving instructions to stop mentioning his name in prayer, as is customary. Even in northeastern Ukraine, on the Russian border, that is the case, he says. "In the church, this shows a great movement away from Moscow," Bremer analyzes. The Moscow patriarch has lost the trust of his brethren in Ukraine — and with it many practicing believers in the country, he said. He explained that about 12,000 of 38,000 parishes of the Russian Orthodox Church are in Ukraine and are part of the UOK: that is, almost one-third.

Bartholomew I is the ecumenical patriarch of the Eastern Orthodox church and its

 approximately 260 million followers

Resistance also stirring in Russian Orthodox Church

In early March, Russian Orthodox clergy and priests published an open letter calling for an end to the war. Written in Russian, the letter reads: "We, the priests and deacons of the Russian Orthodox Church, appeal on our own behalf to all in whose name the fratricidal war in Ukraine will end and call for reconciliation and an immediate ceasefire."

They spoke of the "ordeal to which our brothers and sisters in Ukraine are undeservedly subjected" and referring to the future added, "We are saddened to think of the gulf that our children and grandchildren in Russia and Ukraine will have to bridge to become friends again, to respect and love one another." As of March 8, 2022, 286 priests and deacons have signed the letter.

"This is very courageous," Bremer says of these clerics, who make up a relatively small group out of around 36,000 priests in the Russian Orthodox Church. But they are now being subjected to reprisals and persecution by the Russian authorities and the Federal Secret Service (FSB), Bremer adds.

'Russian Orthodox' as a cultural identity

Professing to being part of the Orthodox Church in Russia can be both a religious as well as cultural affiliation. "There are people in Russia who call themselves Orthodox, but at the same time say they don't believe in God," Bremer explains. "This is also a matter of identity."

Orthodox Christianity is historically closely linked to Russia, the theologian elaborates, and Vladimir Putin is taking advantage of that. In a speech justifying "military actions" in Ukraine, for example, he even referred to the religious dimension when he falsely spoke of Russian Orthodox church members being persecuted in Ukraine.

Both Orthodox churches in Ukraine have rejected this narrative. What impact the war would have on the Orthodox Church, Bremer said, would depend on its further course — and who would win the war. Should Russia take Ukraine, it would mean the end of the independent Ukrainian Orthodox Churches (UOK), he predicts.

But the Russian Orthodox Church would already have lost many believers in Ukraine, and perhaps also some in Russia.

This article was originally written in German.

SEE

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for RUSSIAN ORTHODOX 

LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for UKRAINIAN ORTHODOX 

Some Russian officials think invading Ukraine was 'a mistake' and are 'discouraged, frightened,' and 'making apocalyptic forecasts,' report says

Jake Lahut

Mon, March 7, 2022, 

Russian President Vladimir Putin.MIKHAIL KLIMENTYEV/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images

• Some Russian officials are reportedly unhappy about Putin's decision to invade Ukraine.

• Farida Rustamova, formerly of the BBC, spoke with Kremlin officials for a Tuesday story.

• An English translation of her article said many were "discouraged, frightened."

President Vladimir Putin has alienated some top Russian officials since the early stages of the invasion of Ukraine, the Russian journalist Farida Rustamova reported.

According to the journalist Ilya Lozovsky's English translation of Rustamova's Tuesday report, officials and members of parliament she spoke with said they were increasingly worried about how Putin was handling the war.

"In reality, the attitude toward the war within the corridors of power is ambiguous," Rustamova wrote, according to Lozovsky, whose translation she shared on Twitter and reposted in her Substack newsletter. "I came to this conclusion after speaking with several members of parliament and officials at various levels. Many of them are discouraged, frightened, and are making apocalyptic forecasts."

Rustamova recently fled the country and previously worked for the BBC Russian Service — which has since been suspended by the London-based network — as well as Meduza and the RBC, an investigative outlet that experienced a mass resignation in 2016.

"No one is rejoicing," a source described as "close to the Kremlin" told Rustamova, according to Lozovsky's translation. "Many understand that this is a mistake, but in the course of doing their duty they come up with explanations in order to somehow come to terms with it."

"Some officials aren't associating themselves with what's happening at all, viewing Putin's decision as a historical choice over which they have no influence, and the meaning of which no one will understand for a some time to come," Rustamova wrote.

Another person granted anonymity said Kremlin officials were "carefully enunciating the word clusterfuck" when describing the invasion.

Rustamova wrote that every source she talked to believed Putin wouldn't follow through on invading Ukraine and was instead looking to gain leverage for concessions, such as declaring Donetsk and Luhansk "people's republics."

"Everyone had some scattered information that did not provide an answer to the main question: Will we start bombing or not?" another person described as "close to the Kremlin" told Rustamova.

The Russian reporter also outlined how Putin had been limiting information to a close circle of advisors.

"Most likely, my sources say, only the narrowest circle had been informed: Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov, and the leaders of the counterintelligence service," she wrote, according to Lozovsky's translation. "For example, the head of the presidential administration Anton Vaino, whose role, unlike his more influential predecessors, is more akin to a private secretary, is not informed about such decisions, my sources say."

A different person Rustamova described as "a good acquaintance of Putin's" said the Russian president's mood had gotten worse.

"Here he is in a state of being offended and insulted," the source said. "It's paranoia that has reached the point of absurdity."

Congress passes bill to shore up Postal Service, delivery

By LISA MASCARO

1 of 3

Senate Majority Leader Sen. Chuck Schumer of N.Y., looks on as Sen. Tom Carper, D-Del., center, congratulates Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., right, and Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, for leading the passage of the Senate bill to reform the U.S. Postal Service, on Capitol Hill, Tuesday, March 8, 2022, in Washington. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)


WASHINGTON (AP) — Congress on Tuesday passed legislation that would shore up the U.S. Postal Service and ensure six-day-a-week mail delivery, sending the bill to President Joe Biden to sign into law.

The long-fought postal overhaul has been years in the making and comes amid widespread complaints about mail service slowdowns. Many Americans became dependent on the Postal Service during the COVID-19 crisis, but officials have repeatedly warned that without congressional action it would run out of cash by 2024.

“The post office usually delivers for us, but today we’re going to deliver for them,” said Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y.

Congress mustered rare bipartisan support for the Postal Service package, dropping some of the more controversial proposals to settle on core ways to save the service and ensure its future operations. Last month, the House approved the bill, 342-92, with all Democrats and most Republicans voting for it. On Tuesday, the Senate sent it to Biden’s desk on a 79-19 vote.

Republican Sen. Jerry Moran said the Postal Service has been in a “death spiral” that is particularly hard on rural Americans, including in his state of Kansas, as post offices shuttered and services were cut. “Smart reforms were needed,” he said.

The Postal Service Reform Act would lift unusual budget requirements that have contributed to the Postal Service’s red ink and would set in law the requirement that the mail is delivered six days a week, except in the case of federal holidays, natural disasters and a few other situations.

Postage sales and other services were supposed to sustain the Postal Service, but it has suffered 14 straight years of losses. Growing workers’ compensation and benefit costs, plus steady declines in mail volume, have contributed to the red ink, even as the Postal Service delivers to 1 million additional locations every year.

The bill would end a requirement that the Postal Service finance workers’ health care benefits ahead of time for the next 75 years, an obligation that private companies and federal agencies do not face.

Instead, the Postal Service would require future retirees to enroll in Medicare and would pay current retirees’ actual health care costs that aren’t covered by the federal health insurance program for older people.

Gone for now are ideas for cutting back on mail delivery, which had become politically toxic. Also set aside, for now, are other proposals that have been floated over the years to change postal operations, including those to privatize some services.

Sen. Gary Peters, D-Mich., the chairman of the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee, helmed the legislation and said that since the nation’s founding, the Postal Service has become “a vital part of the fabric of our nation.”

Peters said the legislation would ensure the Postal Service can continue its nearly “250-year tradition of delivering service to the American people.”

Beyond cards and letters, people rely on the post office to deliver government checks, prescription drugs and many goods purchased online but ultimately delivered to doorsteps and mailboxes by the Postal Service.

“We need to save our Postal Service,” said Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, another architect of the bill. Portman said the bill is not a bailout, and no new funding is going to the agency.

Criticism of the Postal Service peaked in 2020, ahead of the presidential election, as cutbacks delayed service at a time when millions of Americans were relying on mail-in ballots during the first year of the COVID-19 crisis.

At the time, President Donald Trump acknowledged he was trying to starve the Postal Service of money to make it harder to process an expected surge of mail-in ballots, which he worried could cost him the election.

Dominated by Trump appointees, the agency’s board of governors had tapped Louis DeJoy, a major GOP donor, as the new postmaster general. He proposed a 10-year plan to stabilize the service’s finances with steps like additional mail slowdowns, cutting some offices’ hours and perhaps higher rates.

To measure the Postal Service’s progress at improving its service, the bill would also require it to set up an online “dashboard” that would be searchable by ZIP code to show how long it takes to deliver letters and packages.

The legislation approved by Congress is supported by Biden, the Postal Service, postal worker unions and others.

Mark Dimondstein, the president of the American Postal Workers Union, called passage of the legislation a “turning point in the fight to protect and strengthen the people’s public postal service, a national treasure.”

___

Associated Press writer Alan Fram contributed to this report.

Validation in Canadian oilpatch as world focuses on energy security, abandons Russian crude

Kyle Bakx 

MARCH 9,2022

Amid sky-high oil prices and increasing sanctions on Russian energy around the globe, some in the Canadian oilpatch are noticing a change in attitude toward their industry.

The U.S. and U.K. are banning Russian oil and the European Union is moving to end its reliance on Russian natural gas, following the country's invasion of Ukraine. The U.S. was importing about 500,000 barrels per day of oil and other petroleum products from Russia.

Canadian energy leaders say they could immediately replace between one-third to one-half of those volumes and move the oil south of the border by pipeline and rail. And that's now a possibility with the U.S. looking for a steady supply of more oil to lower prices and replace Russian barrels.
Canada can move crude to U.S., energy exec says

"There is capacity for us to be able to move more crude into the U.S.," said Suncor chief executive Mark Little, in an interview.

Little is in Houston, Texas, at CERAWeek, one of the largest energy conferences in the world, and an event he's attended in the past.

© Kyle Bakx/CBC 

Suncor chief executive Mark Little says the Canadian oilpatch can export more oil south of the border.

"If you go back a couple of years, I would say the conversation about Canada's role with the United States on energy was almost non-existent," he said.

"And the engagement with the Canadian marketplace, I would say was very, very low. I think there's more of a recognition of just how important Canada is."

Oil from the Canadian oilsands is the "most demonized oil in the world," said Daniel Yergin, an author and vice-chair of S&P Global, on Tuesday, because it has traditionally been a high-cost and high-emitting source of energy.

Overall emissions from the oilsands continue to rise, although the amount of greenhouse gases per barrel of oil has decreased over the years.

"I am seeing a big change," said Cenovus CEO Alex Pourbaix, in an interview.

"The only thing that I'm gratified by out of this [conflict in Ukraine] is that I think, energy security is getting the level of scrutiny that I think it deserved for many years."

© Kyle Bakx/CBC

 Daniel Yergin, left, walks on stage before moderating a panel on Canadian energy with Suncor CEO Mark Little, centre, and Cenovus CEO Alex Pourbaix, right, during CERAWeek by S&P Global.

Canada was one of the first countries to announce a ban on Russian crude, although it hadn't imported any of the oil in a few years.
Sanctions deliver huge blow to energy market

Up until recently, Russia has produced about 10 per cent of the world's oil supply. Economic sanctions, in addition to the direct sanctions on energy, are hampering the country's oil and natural gas exports.

The impacts to Russian energy is potentially the biggest physical disruption to the energy market in history, said Aaron Brady, an executive director with S&P Global.

Climbing costs at the pump

Many private companies such as oil traders, banks, shippers and energy companies are avoiding Russia oil because they don't want to run afoul of sanctions. They also are avoiding Russian oil because of their values and possible reputational risk.

Shell was criticized for buying a shipment of Russian oil last week after the invasion of Ukraine had begun.

"I think there is a degree of vindication," said Alberta Premier Jason Kenney, in an interview.

© Kyle Bakx/CBC

 Alberta Premier Jason Kenney says the U.S. would be foolish to source more oil from Venezuela or Saudi Arabia instead of Canada. He made the comments at CERAWeek by S&P Global in Houston on Tuesday.

"I feel like what we have been saying for years is now understood to be true," he said. "And that is, the world needs more liberal democratic energy and less conflict energy."

Many European countries are far more cognizant of the need to source oil and natural gas from stable, democratic countries, according to federal Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson.

"In the aftermath of the terrible things that are happening in Ukraine, I think that is something that is going to continue going forward. I think that that is one of the lessons that the Europeans are taking from this," he said in an interview.

There has been a collective amnesia about energy security for decades, some experts say, but now the issue is a top priority.

"It's back on the forefront. It should have never left," said Ryan Lance, CEO of ConocoPhillips, while on stage at CERAWeek.

The oil and gas sector is the largest source of greenhouse gases in Canada, accounting for 26 per cent of total national emissions in 2019, according to Natural Resources Canada.

What the U.S. ban on Russian oil imports means for Alberta

    TARSANDS

Stephanie Thomas
CTV News Calgary Video Journalist
Published March 8, 2022

As oil and gas prices soar and the United States bans imports of all Russian oil products, energy analysts fear it will be a challenge for Alberta's resource sector to respond quickly.

U.S. President Joe Biden announced the ban on Tuesday, calling it "another powerful blow to (Russian President Vladimir) Putin's war machine" while "Americans have rallied support the Ukrainian people."

Meanwhile, speaking at the CERAWeek conference in Texas on Tuesday, Premier Jason Kenney said Alberta is the natural answer for the current energy crisis.

“With the third largest proven and probable oil reserves on earth, 180-billion barrels-plus and one of the largest reserves of proven and probable natural gas reserves, that we (Alberta) are a natural answer to the challenge of global energy security," said Kenney.

Kenney also continued to call for the American government to revive the Keystone XL Pipeline project to bring Alberta oil to U.S. refineries.

Yet on Tuesday, TC Energy Corporation rejected that.

"The Keystone XL Pipeline Project was terminated and will not proceed," said Reid Feist, media relations specialist.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine last month has shifted global energy security and analysts suggest Alberta can be a "pillar" or stable supplier, but lacks time.

"You could argue (Alberta's energy resources) would contribute to greater global stability in the course, that's not where we're at today. In terms of this crisis, there is a lot of pressure for short-term responses and short-term solutions from the upstream sector, but there it will take a little bit longer for them to really respond to it," said Kevin Birn, a Calgary-based crude oil market analyst with S&P Global Commodity Insights.

Birn says the current high-price environment where the North American benchmark teeters to US$130 per barrel is not sustainable for the long-term, but shows strong demand for crude oil.

"We're seeing the world remains very much hydrocarbon-powered, and oil and gas is a fundamental pillar for quality of life in the medium term," said Birn.

Birn says Alberta produces a heavy sour crude that is refined in the American Midwest and Gulf Coast, and although production upstream within Canada could be ramped up -- there are major challenges for Alberta to meet the market gap by the exclusion of Russian oil.

He adds that transportation remains an issue, as pipeline and rail capacity from Alberta to the U.S. is limited.

In addition, Birn says the energy sector in North America has recently shifted to an energy transition, as producers are "looking at a long-term demand scenario where they do see renewables taking a greater share and potential for erosion of the demand (for oil) over the long term."

CLIMBING COST OF LIVING

The price at the pump has shocked Canadian drivers as a direct result of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and a Calgary-based energy retail analyst says it will continue to climb over the next few months.

Gasoline fuel prices have soared across the country to a national average of $1.80 per litre.

Gas prices are already 15-30 cents higher per lite since late February, and are expected to increase another eight to 10 cents in April with the start of the North American driving season, said Vijay Muralidharan, a consultant with Kalibrate, a company that collects gasoline price and consumption data.

"Technically, what you're seeing today in gasoline is what has happened in February ... So you're not going to see any abatement of gasoline prices for at least a month and a half, in my opinion," said Muralidharan.

WHERE ELSE COULD IT COME FROM?

Speculating that energy companies would look to the Middle East to purchase oil, Kenney encourage them to instead look to Albertan oil because, "a flight to Calgary is cheaper than a flight to Riyadh (the capital of Saudi Arabia)."

Kenney also promoted Alberta's energy resources as coming from a politically stable region compared to other oil producing regions.

Russia produces an estimated 10 per cent of crude and products used around the world.

BEFORE AND AFTER TARSANDS 

‘The best of us’: Biden promises improved care for veterans

By JOSH BOAK

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President Joe Biden watches as veteran John Caruso walks with the help of an exoskeleton and is assisted by Joshua Geering, SCI Therapy Lead Therapist, Spinal Cord Injury/Disabilities Center in Dallas, as Biden tour's the Fort Worth VA Clinic in Fort Worth, Texas, Tuesday, March 8, 2022. (AP Photo/Patrick Semansky)

FORT WORTH, Texas (AP) — President Joe Biden on Tuesday said U.S. veterans were the “backbone, the spine, the sinew” of the nation, as he pushed for better help for members of the military who face health problems, including after exposure to burn pits.

“You’re the best of us,” Biden said.

For the president, the issue is very personal. In last week’s State of the Union address, Biden raised the prospect of whether being near the chemicals from pits where military waste was incinerated in Iraq led to the death of his son Beau.

“We don’t know for sure if a burn pit was the cause of his brain cancer, or the diseases of so many of our troops,” Biden said in the speech. “But I’m committed to finding out everything we can.”

Biden traveled with Veterans Affairs Secretary Denis McDonough to Texas, where they visited a VA clinic in Fort Worth. There, he met with veterans, including one who was stationed near a pit and later had six weeks of treatment and chemotherapy. Biden greeted a veteran named John, who was seated in a wheelchair, asking him, “How are you?”

“Good to see you man, let me say hi to you,” Biden said, walking over to shake his hand.

At the Tarrant County Resource Connection, the president was joined by about 150 people, including local elected officials and community leaders, Republican Rep. Jake Ellzey and Democratic Rep. Colin Allred.

“There is a price to be paid for every conflict we’re in,” said Ellzey, adding that the country had an obligation to care for veterans and the families any killed in action leave behind.

Biden begged veterans to ask for help when they need it, noting that 17 veterans die by suicide every day, more than in combat.

“They shouldn’t have to ask for a damn thing,” he said of veterans who suffer because of their service. “It should be, ‘I’ve got a problem’ and we should say, ‘How can I help?’

“We’re asking you to tell us. Tell us what your needs are. Don’t be ashamed. We owe you.”

He said there should be expanded access to health care and benefits for veterans affected by exposure to harmful substances, toxins and other environmental hazards, including those from burn pits, plots of land where the military destroyed tires, batteries, medical waste and other materials. Biden said the U.S. government made terrible mistakes during the Vietnam War, when troops returning home suffered mental health problems and physical symptoms that took years to link to Agent Orange.

He refuses to make the same mistakes with those returning from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan

“When our troops came home, the fittest among them ... too many of them were not the same,” suffering unexplained breathing problems and other issues, he said.

“We don’t know yet enough about the connection between burn pits” and the diseases veterans faced, Biden said, adding he was committed to finding out more, increasing funding to study the relationships.

“We’re following the science,” he said, but he urged vets to sign up for the VA burn pit registry, and make sure they know about benefits available to them.

Fort Worth City Councilmember Elizabeth Beck, deployed as a sergeant to Taji, Iraq, said she coughed every day, expelling black matter, and suspected it came from the burn pit that smoldered daily. It took her 17 years to apply for help because she couldn’t bear the red tape.

“We don’t want to ask for anything we don’t deserve,” she said of her fellow veterans. “We aren’t asking for something that we shouldn’t have. We are simply asking not to have to fight again.”

Biden, a Democrat, also called on Congress to send him a bill that protects veterans who face health consequences after burn pit exposure. He said he’d sign it immediately. The House last week passed a bill that would provide VA health care to millions of Iraq and Afghanistan veterans who meet that criteria.

Biden’s son Beau was a major in a Delaware Army National Guard unit that deployed to Iraq in 2008. The two-term Delaware attorney general was diagnosed with brain cancer in 2013 and died two years later at age 46.

It is difficult to link toxic exposure to an individual’s medical condition. The concentration of toxic material is often well below the levels needed for immediate poisoning. Still, the VA’s own hazardous materials exposure website, along with scientists and doctors, say military personnel do face risks and dangers after being exposed to contaminants.

Biden, VA chief head to Texas to highlight care for veterans' environmental illnesses


President Joe Biden and VA Secretary Denis McDonough (C) salute during a wreath-laying ceremony on the 100th anniversary of the Tomb of the Unknown Soldier, at Arlington National Cemetery in Arlington, Va., on November 11, 2021. Tuesday, Biden and McDonough will travel to Fort Worth, Texas.

 Photo by Oliver Contreras/UPI | License Photo

March 8 (UPI) -- President Joe Biden heads for Texas on Tuesday with other administration officials and will speak in the afternoon about improving access to healthcare for military veterans who have been sickened by environmental exposures.

Biden will make the trip with Veterans Affairs Secretary Denis McDonough, the White House said.

Biden is scheduled to make the trip to Fort Worth, where he'll visit a VA clinic and speak about how his administration is addressing related healthcare issues, particularly those that occur during time in service.

In his State of the Union address last week, Biden spoke about his late son and military veteran Beau Biden and mentioned that he'd possibly been exposed to toxic smoke from burn pits in Iraq and Afghanistan. The pits were frequently used to burn things like tires, batteries and medical waste.

"When they came home, many of the world's fittest and best-trained warriors were never the same," the president said in the speech. "Headaches. Numbness. Dizziness. A cancer that would put them in a flag-draped coffin. I know. One of those soldiers was my son, Maj. Beau Biden."

Beau Biden, who'd served in the U.S. Army and Delaware National Guard and was Delaware's 44th attorney general, died in 2015 after a battle with brain cancer.

On Tuesday, President Biden is scheduled to speak at 4:30 p.m. EST after visiting a healthcare facility in Fort Worth. McDonough will also give remarks.

"The president and the secretary of Veterans Affairs will visit the Fort Worth VA Clinic to speak with VA healthcare providers about addressing the health effects of environmental exposures such as burn pits and receive a briefing on primary care and specialty health services for veterans," the White House said in a statement.

Then-Vice Presidential candidate Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., embraces his son Beau at the Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colo., on August 27, 2008. 

File Photo by Bill Greenblatt/UPI

"The president will discuss his administration's actions to address these issues, including a new proposed rule to consider adding certain rare cancers to the list of those presumed to be service-connected, and he will urge Congress to send him legislation that ensures we honor our commitment to veterans exposed to toxic substances."

Last week, the VA said it intends to add nine rare respiratory cancers to the list of presumed service-connected disabilities in relation to exposure to toxic chemicals in the air, water and soil for those who served in the Southwest Asian theater.

The department said that veterans and dependents who'd been denied claims connected with such cases are encouraged to reapply.

WTC first responders have higher frequency of gene mutations linked to cancer

First responders exposed to dust and gases at the World Trade Center site in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks have higher levels of genetic mutations associated with blood cancers, a new study has found.

 File Photo by Monika Graff/UPI | License Photo

March 7 (UPI) -- First responders who worked at the World Trade Center in the aftermath of the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks have higher levels of genetic mutations linked with leukemia and other blood cancers, a study published Monday by Nature Medicine found.

Among more than 480 firefighters and others who worked at Ground Zero following the attacks and were exposed to toxic dust and gases due to the collapse of the Twin Towers were found to have clonal hematopoiesis, the data showed.

This is two to three times more than was seen in firefighters who did not work at the site, the researchers said.

Clonal hematopoiesis is characterized by mutations in blood cells associated with smoking and exposure to toxic substances that impact genes, according to the researchers.

It is associated with a higher risk for developing leukemia and other health problems, including heart attacks, asthma and diabetes, they said.

"People with these genetic mutations are at higher risk for developing leukemia down the road," study co-author Dr. Amit Verma told UPI via Zoom.

"But more than that, they are also at higher risk for inflammation-associated diseases, like heart disease, so there are significant health implications here," said Verma, director of the division of hemato-oncology at Montefiore Medical Center in New York City.

RELATED Thousands suffer health effects of Ground Zero's toxic dust 20 years after 9/11 attacks

Based on their findings, Verma and his colleagues would like to see the WTC Health Program incorporate genetic testing similar to that used in the study into its offerings so that those at risk can be screened for these diseases.

More than 20 years after the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, people living and working in and around lower Manhattan, where the World Trade Center was located, are still experiencing health problems, including high rates of cancer and autoimmune disorders, according to the WTC Health Program.

Exposure to air pollution in general has been linked with various health problems, from heart disease and breathing disorders to dementia, research suggests.

RELATED Air pollution in cities causes 1.8 million deaths globally each year, studies find

Former Daily Show host Jon Stewart in 2019 helped push Congress to make funding of the September 11 Victim Compensation Fund permanent, specifically because of the growing health concerns of first responders with illnesses related to the terrorist attacks.

For this study, Verma and his colleagues analyzed blood samples collected from 481 WTC-exposed first responders and 255 non-exposed firefighters.

They focused on 237 genes frequently mutated in leukemia and other blood malignancies, they said.

The genetic sequencing used in the study is expensive and may not be covered by most health insurers, hence the need for the WTC Health Program to get involved, according to Verma.


"Cancer takes a long time to become manifest," said Verma, who is also a professor of medicine and developmental and molecular biology at Albert Einstein College of Medicine.

"Twenty years is really the time when we see tumors develop following an exposure, so identifying those who are at risk" can enable earlier diagnosis and treatment, he said.

Treasury report says lack of competition in U.S. job market keeping wages low

Worker's rights advocates rally outside the U.S. Capitol in Washington, D.C., on May 19, 2021, calling for an increase in the minimum wage to $15 an hour. 

File Photo by Tasos Katopodis/UPI | License Photo

March 7 (UPI) -- A report from the Treasury Department on Monday pushed back some against the popular belief that the present job market is a workers' market -- underscoring that companies on the whole are still able to get away with underpaying employees.

The report, titled "The State of Labor Market Competition," was compiled with the departments of Justice and Labor and the Federal Trade Commission.

The assessment says that employers are able to keep paying lower wages because there's not much competition for their workers. That lack of competition, it adds, costs workers 15-25% of what they might otherwise qualify to make.

President Joe Biden signs an executive order to promote competition in the American economy, in the State Dining Room of the White House in Washington, D.C., on July 9, 2021. That order produced Monday's report. 

File Photo by Alex Edelman/UPI

"Employers also use their market power to impose other costs on workers, including unpredictable just-in-time schedules, punishing work conditions, and no opportunity for advancement," the study says.

Further, it says that outsourcing U.S. jobs has reduced wages by as much as 24% in some industries, and a decline in unions has robbed employees of bargaining power that could increase their pay and lead to better working conditions.

The lack of competition most often hurts women and communities of color, who make up a larger share of workers in lower-paid occupations.

"These workers often have diminished bargaining power because they lack the resources to easily switch jobs or occupations, to reject or negotiate against signing restrictive employment agreements, or to seek legal recourse for violations of labor and employment law," the study says.

The report is part of a pledge President Joe Biden made last year to look into the impact of anti-competitive practices in the job market.

Biden will host a roundtable with Cabinet officials on Monday afternoon that will focus on the findings of the report. He will make remarks during the meeting at 3:30 p.m. EST.

Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Attorney General Merrick Garland, Labor Secretary Marty Walsh, Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan, Council of Economic Advisors Chair Cecilia Rouse and National Economic Council Director Brian Deese will attend the meeting -- which will hear from workers about harms caused by anti-competitive practices.