Sunday, March 27, 2022

Ukraine captures one of Russia's most advanced electronic warfare systems, which could reveal military secrets, reports say

Alia Shoaib
Sat, March 26, 2022

A Russian Krasukha-4 electronic warfare system.Mil.ru/Wikimedia Commons/Attribution

Ukraine has seized the command module of a Krasukha-4, one of Russia's most advanced electronic warfare systems.

The hi-tech unit was found abandoned on the outskirts of Kyiv.

Western spy agencies will examine it, say reports.


Ukrainian forces have seized part of one of Russia's most advanced electronic warfare systems, which could reveal its military secrets, reports say.

The Krasukha-4 command module was found abandoned on the outskirts of Kyiv partly damaged but otherwise intact, The Times of London reported.

Photos of the unit posted on social media appear to show the container containing the module covered in tree branches, possibly in a hasty camouflage attempt by retreating Russian forces.

#Ukraine: We managed to identify this bizarre "container", captured today by the UA forces near #Kyiv. It is likely to be the command post of one of the most potent Russian EW system - 1RL257 Krasukha-4, used to suppress AWACS radars & radar reconnaissance satellites.
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—πŸ‡ΊπŸ‡¦ Ukraine Weapons Tracker (@UAWeapons) March 22, 2022

The system is designed to jam low-orbit satellites, drones, and missiles, but it is also believed to be able to track NATO aircraft, The Times said.
Related video: How viral moments are shaping the war in Ukraine

A complete Krasukha-4 is a two-part system consisting of a command post module and an electronic warfare system, mounted separately on two trucks.

It is believed that a Krasukha-4 system was used against Turkish Bayraktar TB2 drones in Syria, interfering with their control signal and causing them to crash, according to The Telegraph.

The highly-rated Bayraktar TB2 drones are among those used by Ukrainian forces, used to destroy Russian tanks, armor, and truck convoys.

The seized unit will be examined by Western spy agencies, The Telegraph reported, adding that it would likely be taken by road to the US Air Force's Ramstein Air Base in Germany, before being flown to the US.

Examining the unit could reveal secrets of how it works, which could help Ukraine and Western allies render it useless on the battlefield.

Justin Crump, a military veteran and CEO of risk analysis consultancy Sibylline, told The Times that the seizure was among "lots of goodies that have been recovered on the battlefield."

"It shows how scattered the fighting is and the lack of communications on the Russian side," Crump told the paper.

The US Army Feared Russia’s Cold War Tanks Could Conquer Europe


By Sandboxx News
U.S. Marines assigned to 2nd Tank Battalion, 2nd Marine Division, fire a 120mm smoothbore main gun from an M1A1 Abrams main battle tank during a course of fire at Camp Lejeune, N.C., Jan. 30, 2019. The unit conducted marksmanship qualifications as a part of a biannual training exercise to certify tank crews on the M1A1 Abrams main battle tank. 
(U.S. Marine Corps photo by Cpl. Abrey Liggins)


The US Military feated Russia’s tanks. Here’s why: In 1980, the U.S. Army had a terrifying vision: an armada of Soviet tanks sweeping across Western Europe, all the way to the English Channel. And the U.S. Army feared it had no weapons that could stop this vision from becoming a reality.

“In the arms likely to dominate the outcome of a future battle for Central Europe — armored fighting vehicles and counterweapons — the U.S. Army, then, probably will remain qualitatively and quantitatively inferior,” wrote U.S. Army Major General Paul Gorman in a secret 1980 study that wasn’t declassified until 2014.

The situation sounds eerily familiar to today, where critics question whether Russia’s next-generation T-14 Armata tank is superior to Western models. Or, whether U.S. and British anti-tank weapons will be effective against a Russian invasion of Ukraine that will rely on tanks for maneuver and firepower.

Throughout the Cold War, the United States accepted that its forces in Europe would be outnumbered by a massive Soviet war machine that by 1980 comprised 50,000 tanks — or five times the American tank arsenal. But U.S. leaders had always comforted themselves with the thought that Soviet numbers could be offset by superior American technology, training and tactics.

But by the end of the 1970s, when American military power had ebbed to its post-Vietnam low, Pentagon planners worried that the Soviet Union had achieved superiority in tank quality as well as quantity. In particular, they warned that the new T-72 outclassed the M60A1 and M60A3 — essentially upgrades of the 1950s M48 Patton — that were the backbone of the American tank arsenal at the time.

Even the first M1 Abrams tanks entering service — armed with the 105-millimeter cannon instead of the later 120-millimeter cannon — would have difficulty knocking out the more heavily armed T-72.

“The U.S. Army rates the best current Soviet tank clearly superior to its main battle tank,” the Army report warned.

It assessed the T-72 as superior to the M60A1 by virtue of superior firepower and armor protection. The T-72 was also believed to have numerous advanced features that the M60 lacked, including an “automatic electronic rangefinder, possibly laser rangefinder,” an autoloader to increase rate of fire, a snorkel to cross rivers without needing bridging equipment, and an anti-radiation liner to protect the crew from nuclear weapons. The Army did at least credit the M60 with carrying 60 rounds of main gun ammunition versus 40 for the T-72.

Nor could salvation be found in the anti-tank guided missiles that had begun entering service in the 1970s. Tests and mathematical modeling by the Army’s Ballistic Research Laboratory estimated that U.S. TOW and Dragon anti-tank missiles and the M-735 tungsten core round for the 105-millimeter cannon had a probability of kill (pK) as high as 77 percent against the front armor of a Soviet T-62 tank. But against the T-72, that probability dropped to as low as 22 percent, with even the upcoming M-774 depleted uranium round only having a 50 percent chance to kill a T-72 according to the worst-case models.

That meant defense against a tank-centric Soviet invasion of Europe would be difficult until the 120-millimeter-armed M1 arrived in the mid-1980s.

“Whether one uses informed U.S. or Soviet calculations, the conclusion is that NATO can expect, through 1984, no advantage over the Soviets in quality of armor or antiarmor weapons, and only a modest redressing of its present quantitative disadvantage,” the study concluded.

But were these dire predictions justified? It’s hard to be sure. While U.S.- and Soviet-made armor did clash in the 1973 and 1982 Arab-Israeli wars, a climactic — and perhaps apocalyptic — battle between American and Soviet armies never happened. Still, the much-vaunted T-72 seemed more of a paper tiger in the 1982 Lebanon War, when Israeli Merkava tanks armed with 105-millimeter guns disposed of them. And pitted against the Abrams in the First Gulf War, Iraqi T-72s seemed almost pitiful.

While Moscow could try to blame these debacles on the incompetency of their allies, or the fact that they were using inferior export models of Soviet equipment, that 1970s generation of T-72 tanks and MiG-23 fighters was not impressive in action. Even Syrian-manned T-90s may have been knocked out by U.S-made TOW anti-tank missiles supplied to Syrian rebels in 2016 and 2017.

As the Nazis with their Tiger and Panther tanks could attest, merely having the most powerful tanks doesn’t guarantee victory. Well-trained crews, flexible command and control, reliable logistics, and plentiful airpower are more important than the thickness of a tank’s armor.

In the end, that 1980 U.S. Army study seems less about the superiority of Soviet tanks, and more about the fact that U.S. tank design atrophied between 1945 and 1980. With defense dollars and priorities focused on nuclear weapons and chasing guerrillas through Asian jungles, tanks had become far from the most vital component of U.S. military power. It wasn’t until the M1 Abrams arrived in the 1980s that the U.S. could claim to have a cutting-edge tank, and arguably the best in the world. On the other hand, many Soviet tanks tended to resemble the 1950s T-55 (itself descended from the World War II T-34), which suggests that changes in tank design tend to be evolutionary rather than revolutionary.

Nonetheless, compare a Little Willie tank from World War I to an Abrams, and it’s obvious that tanks do change as technology progresses. Tanks inevitably change just as warfare does, and just as inevitable are the cries that the enemy’s tanks are superior. Fears that the Soviets had better tanks in 1980 are echoed today by warnings that the M1 and other Western tanks are inferior to the T-14 Armata, with its active protection system to shoot down anti-tank rockets, sophisticated sensors and data networking, and powerful 125-mm cannon housed in an unmanned turret while the crew remains safely cocooned inside the thickly armored hull.

For its part, the U.S. and other nations are developing new designs as well. The U.S. Army, for example, wants a family of armored vehicles that will include robot tanks. France and Germany are exploring a joint European tank that might feature a 140-millimeter cannon.

No doubt there will be Russian experts that will claim their tanks are inferior with these platforms enter service — and demand that the Kremlin fund the design of newer, better models (regardless of whether the T-14 has even entered production yet).

Michael Peck is a contributing writer for Forbes. His work has appeared in The National Interest, 1945, Foreign Policy Magazine, Defense News and other publications. He can be found on Twitter and Linkedin. This first appeared in Sandboxx News.



Canadian Pacific rail worker fired under company’s draconian disciplinary regime 

speaks out


The Teamsters union sabotaged the struggle by 3,000 engineers, conductors and yardmen at CP Rail by agreeing to binding arbitration earlier this week. The terms of the arbitrator’s ruling have effectively been dictated by the company. Initial statements from both sides indicating that no consideration will be given in the rigged process to the railroad’s brutal scheduling regime, which forces workers to drive heavily loaded trains unrested, or the draconian disciplinary system, under which workers can be fired for the tiniest of infractions.

The World Socialist Web Site is assisting rail workers to build the CP Workers Rank-and-File Committee to organize a rebellion against the Teamsters union and fight for what workers actually need to ensure safe working conditions. As part of this struggle, we spoke to a British Columbia-based rail worker who was victimized and fired by the company under its arbitrary disciplinary powers. We encourage other CP Rail workers to contact us at cpworkersrfc@gmail.com to share your own experiences and help build the rank-and-file committee.

“I have recently been dismissed for alleged drug use,” the worker told a WSWS reporter. “This has been a major issue I have seen in the 10 years I worked in this industry and has only gotten worse with the Canadian government’s legalization of marijuana.

Canadian Pacific Railway yard, Port Coquitlam, BC (Roy Luck/Flickr)

“Almost exactly two years prior to my dismissal, CP brought out a new drug and alcohol policy that had a zero tolerance for THC use and gave the company the ability to do urine tests. They test for 28 days for any reason they feel meets the criteria, which was common in most safety sensitive workplaces before legalization.

“I watched 5 of my coworkers lose their jobs over this new policy. CP made the commitment that if an employee with a drug or alcohol issue came forward, they would be supported by the company and not be punished as long as this self-disclosure came before an incident.

“I had been struggling with alcohol for years, so this presented me with an opportunity to get sober and not only improve my work, but also my life. So, I took the opportunity and was instantly pulled from service, put through rigorous questioning and consultation as to be expected. I went to a treatment centre for a month to learn how to deal with this disease. And when I came out, CP allowed me to come back to work on the condition that I stay sober for 2 years and engage in counselling once a month.

“The company held me accountable by taking 2 hair samples every 3 months for 2 years. One was for alcohol and one for a pallet of drugs. I went through these tests for 2 years and performed my work well during this time. After 2 years and my last test, I get a call pulling me out of service for a failed drug test. The issue here is I do not touch THC. The positive amount was so incredibly low that it would not even remotely cause intoxication.

“The company wasn’t buying it. So, the day after getting my results, I went to an established workplace testing facility and got another hair sample taken on my own dime which came back negative for THC. This still was not enough proof for the company, and they had their minds made up to get rid of me for whatever reason. If they followed their own policy, they should have treated it as a relapse and offered me help after 2 years of sobriety. But no, they fired me and left me with nothing.”

The worker believes that the company uses these disciplinary measures to get rid of employees who refuse to accept the dangerous working conditions produced by CP’s operating procedures. “I was H&S (Health and Safety) co-chair for 4 years and just got voted back into the position,” he told us. “I had no prior incidents with the company. I feel like what got me fired was my H&S position that held them accountable for safety. Sad to see that they could be that petty as to fake a positive drug test to oust an employee for doing his job for his union, the company, and the employees.

“I think I was getting on management’s nerves because I represented employees and held them accountable. They didn’t like the safety concerns I brought forward. They are always trying to bend and supersede safety rules.

“It’s crazy the way they view it. I was fired for something I didn’t do, and CP said I was guilty right away. The union did nothing about it. It’s always the employee’s fault. The only way they could get rid of me was through a false drug test.”

He went on to explain that his experience is far from unique. “When I first started at CP, they treated employees reasonably, they treated us good,” he said. “They weren’t punishing people constantly like they are now. But, three years into my career, Hunter Harrison stepped in and ran CP into the ground. From that point on, I’ve seen 15 people get fired for ridiculous and petty things. I agree with serious safety procedures, but they are totally overloading the arbitration with more incidental safety violations. Due to the backlog, you’re waiting two years while they do an investigation. So, the company just keeps hammering people with unreasonable things.

“When there’s an incident, CP reviews the time you’ve missed, and you’ll be viewed as a certain level of employee, and the investigation is not going to go in your favour. Regardless of how much time you’ve put in, the company and management treat you like trash. If you don’t do what they say, they will fire you.

“Managers are responsible for proficiency testing [a kind of failure quota], and if they don’t make the fail quota, they get penalized. So, they are constantly on the lookout for worker ‘failures’ that only exist so they can blame the workers when accidents happen.”

He detailed how this oppressive climate creates the conditions for unsafe working conditions and accidents to proliferate. “CP uses fear tactics to keep workers from filing complaints,” commented the worker. “They say, ‘Safety first’, but in reality, the railway is go, go, go. We’re not allowed time to stop. We get rushed to do anything.

“There is less air brake testing nowadays, and we’re expected to move more grain, faster. There is less equipment testing, less maintenance, and the government allows it.

“Nothing is ever done after the accidents. In fact, they do less, which was proved during the Field accident. And the government is all for it.

“This one old guy I know hurt his arm, and CP claimed he was lying about it to get at the company. So, they intimidated and harassed him until he took early retirement. It’s disgraceful. HR did nothing about it because they’re in bed with CP and they support CP’s side and not the worker with the complaint.”

He continued, “The Field accident was a perfect example of rushing. It’s totally disgusting on CP Rail’s part. Lucky it was grain being transported and not something else, or it could have been even worse. All this because guys are being rushed by management and unable to follow proper procedures and do proper maintenance.

“In my opinion, the Field accident occurred because the train wasn’t tied down (securing the parked train with handbrakes). But I still see trains not tied down, so CP is not following its own policies because they’re rushing to move crews on and off these trains. They’ve got to get them off after 10 hours of work, so they run them to the brink and then rush them off so there’s no time to tie down the train.

“I think it was a holiday and so there was a big push to get the crew out of there, so they were rushed off the train. The train was left with no handbrakes set, and nobody to monitor airflow for the air brakes. They didn’t get a new crew out on the train for a long time, long enough so that the cars bled off their air and the locomotives were shut down and not pumping air into the cars. So, there was just a complete lack of air in the reservoirs that you need to maintain a stable braking pressure.

“When the new crew came on, the train started to roll, despite the independent brakes being on. You have to remember that they had fully loaded grain cars on a steep grade. As the air started to leak off, the train started to move. At that point you can’t do anything. There’s no air and no control. Once the momentum gets going, there’s no stopping it. The engineer tried his best to stop it, but you can’t with no air. He should have jumped off right away, but they stayed on and tried to save the train.

“That accident spot is the worst in Canada. That spot should have had specific protocols, especially in cold weather conditions. Rushing up there shouldn’t be any excuse for that to happen. It’s unacceptable.”

Turning to the current struggle, the worker noted that CP has raked in massive profits during the pandemic, while it has exposed its workforce to the risk of infection with a potentially deadly virus. “The company has done extremely well,” he said. “Throughout the pandemic, they’ve had the best quarters they’ve ever had! CP is just making crazy money. Why are they not willing to keep employees happy? They are the ones keeping the economy running.

“CP just chips away at each contract. They wanted to keep the contract hush hush because they knew it would piss-off members. Before, the pension was never capped. But now, it’s capped off, so you can’t boost your pension past a certain amount. By the time someone at my age retires in a few decades from now, that pension is not going to be enough to live on. You need that open pension. It’s really disheartening to see the company take away the pension for employees. This work is not as good as people might think.”

He added, “The company’s goal is to have just one guy in the cab and the train run itself. But a lot of times you have to ‘walk the train’. That’s a big part of having two people. If the train goes into emergency mode, it instantly brakes and stops. The conductor has to get out and figure out what the issue is, and they have to remedy it. It’s always good to have a pair of people to protect each other. To take away that second person to save money...come on!”

“You tell the union about contract breaches and they just tell you to grieve it, but meanwhile you keep working and the process could take up to two years or longer.

“There’s so much money and collusion with government and union officials that it’s turned into a giant cluster.”

Asked what he thought the CP Workers Rank-and-File Committee should fight for, he responded, “More reasonable hours, better train lineups. You’re expected to drive a train at 12pm, you plan your day around that and then all of a sudden you don’t get called for 6 hours. Or you’re called in the middle of the night and now you’re driving a train for 10 hours unrested. Guys should be rested when they’re hauling millions of tons of goods through the mountains.

“Your life is the company. Your actual life is secondary to the job. You spend more time on the job, or waiting for a phone call, or planning around their schedule, than in your actual life. The union does nothing. They say, ‘If you don’t like it, don’t work’.”

Lukashenka’s Fatal Mistake


Translation by Griffin Perrault

The Belorussian ambassador was recently kicked out of Ukraine. Lukashenka has fully surrendered to Putin – his country’s debt is in the red – and he will not receive one cent more from Moscow until he throws his troops into the Ukrainian furnace.

Lukashenka seems to believe that there is a Russian ground invasion of Ukraine underway, for which he must prepare and fully participate. It seems a Belorussian ground invasion of Ukraine will almost certainly take place. And what must we understand in this context? There is no major difference between Lukashenka entering the ground war or not, from whatever point of view you choose to take. Because arguably, Belarus has already invaded Ukraine and has been defeated.

Military aspect: A small, poorly-armed, poorly-trained, and completely demoralized contingent of the Belorussian army will not be able to break the Ukrainian resistance. In the worst-case scenario, Belorussian suicide bombers will prolong the agony of the invading army by a week or two.

Legal aspect: Both de facto and de jure, Belarus is already a party to the Ukrainian conflict, supporting the Russian aggressor: it provides its territory, infrastructure, and assistance to injured Russian soldiers. Additionally, all the legal consequences associated with its involvement can already be applied. If Belorussian boots land on Ukrainian soil, the list of war criminals will include Belorussian surnames; however, little will change for Belarus as a country. It is time to point out the elephant in the room – Belarus has already attacked Ukraine in the war on February 24th! This war is by Belarus against Ukraine.

Foreign policy aspect: Belarus’s participation in the war is already a fact of life for the international community. No living soul on Earth believes Lukashenka’s words. One way or another, sanctions will be imposed on him, without pity.

Domestic political aspect: Participation of Belarus in the ground war will only speed up the collapse of the Lukashenka government; however, even in the absence of a ground invasion, the fate of the usurper has already been decided. The Russian army will be defeated in Ukraine – perhaps in a couple of weeks, perhaps six months. Russian victory is no longer in Lukashenka’s hands; all he has left is a small stratum of riot police and other members of his regime. They will abandon him as soon as they recognize that he cannot escape the people’s righteous wrath (and now even that of Ukraine).

The humanitarian aspect is most significant to consider in this case. Of course, the participation of Belorussians in Putin’s war will result in senseless casualties and a greater gap between the two fraternal nations. Unlike Russia, Belarus was indeed a “good neighbor” to Ukraine until February 24th. Since 2014, when the fighting began in the now “temporarily occupied areas of Ukraine,” Belorussians – even if they took part in the fighting – would privately rather be on Ukraine’s side. Lukashenka did not even recognize the occupied Crimea and constantly falsely affirmed that Russian troops would never have access to Ukraine via Belarus.

Now that Belarus is at war with Ukraine, with hundreds dying as a consequence of Lukashenka’s complicity, relations between Ukraine and Belarus are already damaged. Fortunately, this is countered by Ukrainian support from the Belorussian government-in-exile, including the “Rail war” and the participation of Belorussian volunteers in the fight against the Russian aggressors. But this does not mitigate the responsibility of Belarus as an international actor.

Nevertheless, we can venture a guess as to the consequences of the war for the parties to the conflict.
Consequences for Belarus, from the point of view of Belarus

1. Severe political destabilization.

Unlike Putin, who enjoys considerable support in Russia – according to various estimates, public approval of 60–80% – Lukashenka has the support of barely 20–30% of Belorussians, a consequence of his administration’s brutal suppression of protests in 2020. Therefore, even if Russia’s participation in the war might not be fatal to Putin’s regime, for the Belorussian dictator, it will be deadly for sure.

2. Economic woes.

If the Russian Federation, despite the sanctions regime, still has some strategic reserves of oil to maintain stability, then Belarus has nothing left. As long as the Lukashenka regime remains in power and economically tied to Putin, the Belorussian economy will not exist. The postponement of Russian loans will not be sufficient.

3. Collapse of support for Lukashenka.

The last argument that supporters of Lukashenka could make for him was the maintenance of peace. The dictator has confidently bragged that he has managed to keep Belarus a beacon of order and stability. However, on February 24th, this rhetoric disappeared – Belarus is now at war with Ukraine. No portion of the electorate has any reason to support Lukashenka.

4. Maintenance of Putin’s power and continued threat to Ukraine from Belarus.

After being defeated, Russia will nevertheless sign a peace treaty with Ukraine. It may not return Crimea or cease its infamous project in Donetsk and Luhansk. Most likely, this will allow Putin to maintain Russia under his yoke. But striking a peace deal with Russia will not mean the end of conflict in the region! Lukashenka’s regime will remain a constant threat to Ukrainian security, as will Putin’s regime. A decision to deal with this problem expediently and not leave it to future administrations would be a prudent political move for Ukraine – but deadly for the Belorussian regime. After achieving a peace deal with Russia, it will be that much easier for the victorious Ukrainian troops to wipe Lukashenka’s regime off the face of the earth. There would be no need to capture territory or wage war against the civilian population of Belarus: just one “special operation” to eliminate the gangster Lukashenka.

5. Return of field soldiers with combat experience to Belarus.

Even if Ukraine refrains from using direct military force to eliminate Lukashenka, many highly-motivated Belorussian volunteers with experience from the war in Ukraine. They can begin rebellion against Lukashenka on their own, attracting more and more Belorussians to their side. Alternatively, they can enlist the help of the Ukrainian military, whose homes have been attacked and ransacked with the help of Lukashenka’s regime. Of course, victory for such an insurgent movement, is far from guaranteed. But its chances are substantially higher than ever before, especially in the likely case of Russian noninterference.

6. Annexation of Belarus.


During or immediately after the Russo-Ukrainian War, Putin still may decide to eliminate Lukashenka and annex Belarus directly. Even under current conditions, Lukashenka is no longer needed by Putin. It is not through Lukashenka’s legitimacy that Russian troops are stationed on the territory of Belarus – they are thereby force of law. Especially after adopting the new constitution, the Security Council, a collegial body, can make decisions favorable to Putin in Belarus, and Lukashenka himself is no longer obliged to do so.

Also, the attempt to annex Belarus will not have costs for Russia as before – it is unlikely that any international sanctions will be added for this, and it is unlikely that the Belorussians will sacrifice their lives to protect the country against Russian annexation. Lukashenka is already an outcast, no one will stand up for him, and little attention will be paid to what happens to him.

7. Deprivation of Belorussian sovereignty.

Let me remind you that the Kremlin is trying to create its Russian sphere of influence and capture Ukraine; consequently, it also intends Belarus to be part of its “Slavic Union,” the basis of a future ersatz Soviet Union. This means that depriving Belarus of its sovereignty is an integral part of the same project that began the invasion of Ukraine. Lukashenka would have to work hard to find a place for himself in this plan. In Putin’s dystopian vision, Lukashenka has almost no chance of surviving as an independent sovereign – which means Lukashenka has no chance of survival: whether at the hands of Ukrainians, Russians, or the new generation of his people. The latter is the most likely.
Consequences for Belarus, from the point of view of Russia

1. End of idea of peaceful Belorussian Union.

Likely forfeiting allglobal economic and political influence due to the war, Russia has lost its opportunity to advocate for the peaceful integration of Belarus into Russia. If two months ago many Belorussians had looked to Russia as a kind of older brother who provided support and stability, this image is forever tarnished. We see the wolf, even though it’s clothed in grandma’s clothes.

2. Inability to effectively back Lukashenka’s regime.

Unlike the situation in 2002, after its defeat in this war, Russia will not be able to interfere in Belarus’s internal affairs as it has before – especially in the case of another uprising. Russia will be distracted by internal tensions, with significant weakening of its power base – eviscerated by war – and the potential for his overthrow, which many within the Russian military are now considering.

3. Idea of the Russian sphere of influence fails.

The stillborn idea of the “Russian world” is now buried forever. The Putin regime has lost not only Ukraine but also Belarus forever. There will be no promised restoration of the Soviet Union – the end of the Soviet era has long come and gone. Power in Russia will likely change, even if not in the immediate future. Its people will grow suspicious and sour on its government. Then, perhaps after many years, Russia’s relationship with its neighbors will finally be restored.

This relationship will look quite different; there will no longer be any “big brothers” or “spheres of influence.” These countries will meet one another as sovereign equals.

4. Necessity of the forceful subordination of Belarus.

If the Putin regime resists this tide of history, full subordination of Belarus will be its integral first step in mounting a renewed attack on Ukraine (or, as an intermediate “Crimea 2” for its domestic propaganda use and exploitation). A prop for Russia’s half-dead economy, a labor force and market for Russian goods, and a pool for future conscription – this is the only way the Kremlin is capable of seeing Belarus. This being the case, Putin will have to change some of the elite composition after the war with Ukraine. Many of Lukashenka’s current lackeys will not survive this change. Lukashenka, whose administration will not survive in any case, has become far too expensive, inefficient, and outdated for Moscow to hold onto.
Consequences for Belarus, from Ukraine’s point of view

1. Putin must fall.

The war in Ukraine will only end when Putin’s regime is toppled. So long as Putin rules Russia, Ukraine will never be safe. Therefore, the ultimate overthrow of Putin is one of Ukraine’s long-term military goals. Lukashenka is an actual – albeit not very loyal – ally of Putin. The Lukashenka regime is incomparably weaker than Putin’s. To rid the country of Lukashenka and liberate Belarus will inevitably weaken Putin’s grip on power and therefore strengthen Ukraine. After all, a free New Belarus is a reliable ally in the fight against the Kremlin and no longer a launching pad for a dangerous “northern front.”

2. Necessity of regime change in Belarus.

Implementing a plan to change the Belorussian regime will by no means be a difficult task for Ukrainian forces, especially after they conclude the war with Russia. Having eliminated a detachment of Russian troops in the North of the country, Ukrainians have every right not to stop at the Belorussian border. Indeed, they are entitled to move only in one direction – to Lukashenka’s residence. In this case, the dictatorship will fall in days, if not hours; the dictator’s closest friends will race to hand him over, even before his enraged countrymen or Ukrainian battalions reach him.

3. Lack of support for Lukashenka: an opportunity for change.

No country in the world (except Russia) would, in theory, try to help keep the Lukashenka regime in place. Likewise, no one would condemn those who eventually rid the world of this tired dictator.

4. Support for Ukraine Among Belorussian people.

Some nationalist Russians view Ukrainians as “enemies” and “Banderites.” There is no such preconception in Belarus. Indeed, for most Belorussians, Ukrainians are still fraternal and neighborly people. One must try quite hard to find a Belorussian who wants to “denazify” Ukraine at the cost of Ukrainian lives.

5. Russian eyes on Belarus.

Regime change in Belarus will sober the population of Russia. Whatever Russian propaganda may say, real examples of freedom and democracy in Ukraine – and especially Belarus – and real economic growth in these countries post-war will be the strongest factor in weakening Putin’s domestic support. Therefore, the liberation of Belarus may be the most important strategic goal for Ukraine once the war concludes.

6. Western support.

Naturally, efforts by Ukraine to eliminate authoritarian or totalitarian regimes will be met with support from the West. The “monkey with the grenade” is the most powerful destabilizing factor in modern global politics. Ukraine can thus demand any concessions it wants from the West in pursuing its fight against Putin. Eliminating Lukashenka will be a necessary step for which neither the United States nor the European Union should spare any expense.



The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and do not necessarily reflect the position of the Foreign Policy Research Institute, a non-partisan organization that seeks to publish well-argued, policy-oriented articles on American foreign policy and national security priorities.


NON PARTISAN IS NOT NO PASARAN, 
IT ACTUALLY DENOTES A CODE WORD FOR CONSERVATIVE

ALBERTA HAS THE MOST CHARTER SCHOOLS IN CANADA

Chicago: Charter Schools Suspend and Expel Minority Students at Extremely High Rates

Privatization transfers public funds, assets, and authority from the public sector to the private sector. This typically erodes the voice of workers, increases corruption, lowers accountability, raises costs, fragments services, undermines flexibility, diminishes transparency, reduces efficiency, decreases the quality of services, and intensifies inequality.

By removing socially-produced value from the economy and further concentrating it in the hands of private competing interests, privatization ultimately harms the economy, undermines the national interest, and enriches a handful of people at the expense of the public. The public would benefit vastly more if the wealth produced by workers stayed in the hands of workers and in the public purse. Socially-produced wealth could then be used to serve the common good. For its part, the United Nations reminds us that privatization violates human rights and devalues the public interest.

While practically every sector is being rapidly privatized at home and abroad, privately-operated charter schools are the main expression of privatization in the sphere of education in the U.S. These outsourced privatized schools siphon billions of dollars a year from public schools and seize many public school assets and facilities for next to nothing. In this connection, every week the news is filled with stories about corruption, fraud, and arrests in the crisis-prone charter school sector. Thousands of such stories can be found at the Network for Public Education.

Even though they are called “public schools of choice open to all,” privately-operated charter schools are notorious for routinely cherry-picking students through a variety of mechanisms, including suspending and expelling poor and low-income black and brown students at extremely high rates, including kindergarteners. It is well-documented that privately-operated charter schools intensify segregation and few are truly diverse (see herehere, and here). The charter school sector is more segregated than the public school sector. New York City, for example, is home to some of the most intensely segregated charter schools in the nation (see here and here). It is also worth noting that all charter schools in the U.S. are run by unelected individuals, generally employ fewer experienced teachers than public schools, and regularly perform poorly. In addition, charter schools tend to pay teachers less than their public school counterparts and hire fewer nurses than public schools.

Chicago is home to more than 100 privately-operated charter schools but it is not the only city in America full of charter schools that suspend and expel poor and low-income black and brown students at much higher rates than public schools. 1 For example, Legal Prep Charter Academy, “which is about 99% Black, issued 190 out-of-school suspensions during the 2019-2020 school year. Community organizers and students say the harsh discipline tactics make students less engaged with school and feel unwanted.” This means that Legal Prep Charter Academy, “suspended students at a higher rate than any other school in Chicago.” The school also “issued 13 expulsions during the 2019-2020 school year, meaning almost one out of every 20 students was expelled.” Not surprisingly, Legal Prep Charter Academy is in legal trouble on other fronts as well. In the U.S., “no-excuses” charter schools have come under heavy criticism over the years for their harsh consequences, antisocial policies, and authoritarian practices.

Even during the height of the covid pandemic:

the [Chicago] district’s charters issued an average of 130 suspensions per 1,000 students. (Students can be suspended multiple times). That rate is nearly five times that of non-charter schools in Chicago, according to new analysis of disciplinary data obtained online from the Illinois State Board of Education and Chicago Public Schools. (emphasis added)

According to the same source, expulsions have been going on for years:

Of the schools in Chicago issuing the highest number of expulsions in 2019-2020, eight of the top 10 schools were charter schools, according to data from the Illinois State Board of Education. In 2018-2019, all 10 were charters. Legal Prep was on both of those lists.

To be sure, charter school suspensions and expulsions is a long-standing national problem. Charter schools do not accept or retain all students. Many students pushed out of charter schools return to their home public school.2 Chalkbeat noted in 2015 that New York City charter schools also suspended students at a much higher rate than the city’s public schools. On a national scale, a 2016 study by The Civil Rights Project at UCLA found that charter schools suspended a range of students at higher rates than public schools. The report, which examined more than 5,000 charter schools across the country, also stressed the intensely segregated nature of charter schools. It is well-known that students who are suspended and expelled at high rates are more likely to become part of the school-to-prison pipeline.

Unlike privately-operated charter schools, public schools accept all students at all times and have far fewer suspensions and expulsions; they are not as heavy-handed as charter schools. Charter schools are deregulated schools, which means that they are exempt from many public standards, laws, and rules. Deregulation is a key feature of the privatization agenda of neoliberals. This “autonomy” and “freedom” allows charter schools to engage in punitive practices in the name of “innovation” and “high expectations.” In practice, privatization incentivizes both nonprofit and for-profit charter schools to cherry-pick students, cut corners, and underinvest. Privatization does the same in other sectors as well, resulting in a lowering of the level of society and the economy.

Despite efforts to reduce extremely high suspension and expulsion rates, charter schools in Chicago and elsewhere are not known for vigorously embracing sustained pro-social improvements, let alone on a broad and rapid scale. They cannot do so because they operate mainly as profit-maximizing private enterprises, regardless of whether they are classified as nonprofit or for-profit schools. Profit maximization and human social responsibilities like education do not go together; they negate each other. The notion that the broad aim of the public can be reconciled and harmonized with the narrow aim of owners of capital is straightforward disinformation; they are contradictory aims.

Many have publicly stated that cashing in on kids is immoral and self-serving. In theory and practice, justice cannot be upheld or restored in entities set up to operate on the basis of individualism, consumerism, competition, the “free market,” and exclusionary practices. Privatization is designed for profit, not equity or justice. Privatization fosters exclusion and a hierarchy of rights, not the opposite. In legal, philosophical, operational, and other ways, charter schools are set up very differently from public schools. It is problematic to even compare them or to call charter schools public schools. Charter schools and public schools are apples and oranges.

A modern public education system in a society based on mass industrial production can and must be world-class, fully-funded, inclusive, universal, non-punitive, publicly controlled, and never allowed to fall into the hands of private interests. Owners of capital have no legitimate claim to public funds, assets, or enterprises because these all belong to the public and are meant to serve the common good, not the narrow aim of profit maximization.

There are roughly 100,000 public schools and approximately 7,500 privately-operated charter schools in the United States. Around 3.4 million students attend charter schools and about 50 million youth—90% of students—attend public schools. Roughly 150-250 charter schools close every year due to financial malfeasance, mismanagement, or poor academic performance, leaving many poor and low-income minority families out in the cold. Despite the oft-repeated promise of better results for students and schools, about 5,000 charter schools have closed in the U.S. over the course of nearly 31 years.

  1. It is critical to appreciate (1) that charter schools in Chicago came about by closing dozens of public schools in the city and that (2) the closure of public schools in mainly Black communities has caused harm on many levels (see here). [↩]
  2. It is important to appreciate that charter schools choose parents and students, not the other way around. [↩]Facebook
Shawgi Tell is author of the book Charter School Report Card. He can be reached at stell5@naz.edu.Read other articles by Shawgi.