Meduza: Inside the Kremlin. What does Putin hope to achieve now, and what is the mood in Russia

De

 Universul.net

 -

1 aprilie 2022

Sursa: Pixabay

This week, the Russian defense ministry announced a shift in its stated military objectives in Ukraine as has been widely reported.

Russian forces, the ministry’s spokesman claimed, would “drastically reduce” their assault on Kyiv and Chernihiv (however, this has yet to materialize) and concentrate on seizing the Donbas.

Independent Russian news site *Meduza spoke to five sources who said this was based on military and political considerations.

For a start, Russian officials aren’t sure how long the country can survive under tough Western sanctions.

The story captures the mood in the Kremlin, the competing narratives and different public sentiments reflected in unpublished Kremlin opinions polls.  It makes for grim reading.

Changing tack

By the end of March, a month into Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia’s military leadership finally resigned themselves to the fact that Kyiv couldn’t “be taken with little bloodshed.”

That is, Russia couldn’t take the Ukrainian capital with the forces on the ground in its so-called “special military operation.” Five sources told Meduza the same story; three are close to Vladimir Putin’s Executive Office (the Presidential Administration and two are close to the Russian government.

Meduza’s sources said that during the early days of the invasion, both the Russian military and President Putin believed the “special operation” would be easy to accomplish. They simply did not expect so much resistance from Ukraine.

Indeed, in late February, a Meduza source close to Mr. Putin’s office was convinced that the biggest problems for Russia wouldn’t be the seizure of major cities, but getting “new administrations” running in occupied areas.

This person had little doubt that Russian forces would seize these territories (including Kyiv). “There’s nowhere to get personnel to manage complex, urbanized territory,” Meduza’s source  said at the time. “There weren’t even enough of them for Crimea and Sevastopol.”

Donbas

By early March, however, the sources were beginning to change their tune. Now, they believe that managing to bring just the Donbas under its  control is the most “likely scenario.”

Five sources attributed the softening of Russia’s positions in the peace talks with Kyiv to the military’s failures on the ground. After Russian and Ukrainian officials met in Istanbul on March 29, Russian defense ministry spokesman, Col. Gen. Alexander Fomin, announced that Russian forces would “drastically reduce military activity in the directions of Kyiv and Chernihiv.”

 Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu declared the “liberation of the Donbas” was the “main goal” of Russia’s military operations.

 Meduza’s sources claim that in late March, government officials showed the Russian president their calculations about the state of the Russian economy. According to these documents, one source said, “the country will not be able to live even remotely normally under such sanctions.”

“There are [government] meetings going on in various sectors with approximately the same content: we can hold out on old reserves for several months. What will happen after, if at least some of the sanctions aren’t lifted? It isn’t clear to anyone. What is clear is that everything will be very bad. Infrastructure problems will begin, and problems with transport,” said one source who is close to the Cabinet of Ministers.

The party of war

Three sources close to the presidential administration all emphasized  that Putin has yet to make a final decision on what to do next.

According to one of these people, the president is currently “influenced by different groups and people.”  He himself “would like to see a semblance of public discussion” about the war in Ukraine. This desire for “public discussion” implies that Putin is ready to hear out those who insist on peace with Ukraine, as well as those who call for a  continuation of a full-scale war.

“People close to the Kremlin’s political circle are inclined to be in favor of negotiations, and their capabilities on the Internet will be deployed for this. The party of war , for example, [Chechnya’s head Ramzan] Kadyrov and [State Duma Speaker] Vyacheslav Volodin believe that the Russian president is in favor of fighting until victory, so they’re sort of following him,” a source close to the Presidential Administration said.

Possible truce

At the same time, officials in the Presidential Administration now fear that a “possible truce with Ukraine will impact Putin’s ratings.”

“Citizens have been ‘overheated’ by the propaganda. Let’s say a decision is made to stop at the territory of the Donbas. What about the ‘Nazis’? Are we no longer fighting against them? Propaganda has been hammered into people so much that I can’t imagine how we can stop at the Donbas, without a drop in ratings,” said a spin doctor working with the Kremlin.

A Meduza source close to the presidential administration also predicted problems stemming from another propaganda line — the swift “capture of Kyiv” and holding a victory “parade on Khreshchatyk” (the city’s main street).

“And what do you say after that? That we changed our minds about taking Kyiv? Why? Yes, there aren’t so many real, staunch supporters of war up to the very end, but this is a very vocal part of society which is already beginning to make noise [after the negotiations in Istanbul],” he explained, pointing to numerous comments from outraged “patriots” after the announcement about scaling back the assault on Kyiv.

Surveys

Since mid-March, as Meduza reported previously, Putin’s administration has been using  surveys to determine how the  public views  the war and which problems concern Russians most. A Meduza source familiar with the AP’s findings said that Putin’s ratings have  gone up since the “special military operation” began. (Similarly, a recent poll conducted by the independent Levada Center shows that Putin’s approval rating hit a whopping 83 percent in March, and his trust rating reached 44 percent.)

Nevertheless, what happens next remains unclear. And whether the possibility of “abandoning” the plan to take Kyiv will provoke opposition from the pro-Kremlin electorate is unclear, as well.

“Among the [supporters of the war] are ‘armchair patriots’ who say they support it, but won’t rally in the streets in support of a continuation of hostilities. Women over 40 are also part of the core support for the ‘operation.’ They support it, but when asked the question: ‘Are you prepared to send a member of your family to fight?’ they say they aren’t prepared to do that,” said Meduza’s source, explaining the results of the Kremlin’s opinion polls. The source added that most often, Russians cite the “threat from the West” as the reason they support the war which echoes “what they’re told on TV.”

Russian propagandists

Against this backdrop, the presidential administration held a meeting to discuss strategies for explaining possible peace talks with Ukraine to the Russian population, Meduza’s sources said. Allegedly, no “effective strategies” came out of this meeting. “So much coal has been thrown into the locomotive’s furnace, it won’t be possible to put it out immediately,” one political strategist said at the meeting,  Meduza has learned.

The difficulty lies in the fact that some Russian propagandists are openly demanding that the war continues: “For example, [state] television host Vladimir Solovyov dragged [Russia’s head peace negotiator Vladimir] Medinsky through the mud.” Other propagandists “don’t understand how to backpedal so as not to lose face.”

Two Meduza sources close to the president’s office emphasized that there is a level of disappointment among the “patriotic public.”

“NOTIONALLY, FOR THEM, IT’S LIKE WATCHING A TV SERIES WITH A SPOILER: IN THE LAST EPISODE THEY’LL TAKE KYIV. AND NOW, IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SERIES, THERE’S SOME NEGOTIATIONS — AND IT ALREADY SEEMS KYIV WON’T HAPPEN.”

The Kremlin is already preparing for an inevitable drop in the government’s ratings after the war ends amid the worsening economic crisis, especially in Moscow and Saint Petersburg.

Secret Kremlin polls show that no more than half of the residents of these cities currently support the war.

New ideology

According to Meduza’s sources, political strategists close to the Kremlin have already been tasked with dreaming up a “new ideology for the country” and “some new national idea.”

As one source put it: “There will be peace in some form anyway, and people will ask questions: what was this for? Kyiv hasn’t been taken, the majority of the sanctions haven’t been lifted, living under them [sanctions] is bad. Why put up with all this? This void needs to be filled so that it won’t be filled by someone else.”

* Meduza is a Russian and English-language independent news website, based in Latvia which was set up in 2014.

More than 600,000 refugees from Ukraine have entered Romania since Russia invasion

De

 Universul.net

 -

31 martie 2022

Some 608,000 refugees from Ukraine have entered Romania since Russia invaded the country in what is Europe’ largest refugee crisis since World War II, the UN said.

The U.N. refugee agency, UNHCR,  on Wednesday  said that more than 4 million people have left Ukraine since Russia launched its invasion on Feb. 24.

That number exceeds the worst-case predictions made at the start of the war.

Some 2.3 million_more than half of the refugees from Ukraine_ have entered Poland, but some have since traveled on to other countries.

A small number have returned to Ukraine, either to help in the defense against the Russians or to care for relatives.

About 390,000 have entered Moldova, and 364,000 have entered Hungary in the last five weeks, UNHCR said.

Its figures are based on counts provided by the governments of those countries.

“The situation inside Ukraine is spiralling,” UNICEF Executive Director Catherine Russell said in a statement Wednesday.

“As the number of children fleeing their homes continues to climb, we must remember that every single one of them needs protection, education, safety and support.”

U.N. High Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi traveled to Ukraine on Wednesday to discuss ways to increase support “to people affected and displaced by this senseless war.”

Russian general dubbed ‘butcher of Mariupol’ is a mystery to experts

By Adam Taylor and William Branigin
Yesterday 

Col. Gen. Mikhail Mizintsev, head of the Russian National Defense Control Center, 

sits at the right in this briefing in Moscow on March 25. 

(Natalia Kolesnikova/AFP/Getty Images)

For years, Col. Gen. Mikhail Mizintsev was an obscure figure in Russia’s sprawling military leadership. But over the past week, he has become well-known under a startling moniker: “the butcher of Mariupol.”

Ukrainian officials and activists have accused Mizintsev of orchestrating a siege of the southern Ukrainian port city that, according to its mayor, has killed thousands of civilians and leveled residential buildings.

Russia’s Ukraine war builds on tactics it used in Syria, experts say

“This is Mikhail Mizintsev. He is leading the siege of Mariupol. … He has huge experience of destroying cities in Syria,” Oleksandra Matviichuk, head of Ukraine’s Center for Civil Liberties, tweeted last week over a photo of the 59-year-old general, a man with close-cropped gray hair and pale blue eyes.




Mizintsev, who heads Russia’s National Defense Control Center, was placed under sanctions Thursday by the British government, which said he was “linked to the planning and execution of the bombardment of Mariupol, among other key Russian military operations against Ukraine.”

The Russian military officer has been dubbed “the butcher of Mariupol,” Britain’s Foreign Office said in a statement.

But despite his newfound notoriety, some Russia-watchers were surprised to see Mizintsev singled out. Previously, he did not have much of a reputation despite decades of service, experts said.

“I honestly don’t understand all this — I don’t think he has any operational command responsibility here, and he’s not got any particular reputation as martinet or thug that I know of,” said Mark Galeotti, an honorary professor at University College London who studies Russia’s armed forces.

Jeffrey Edmonds, former director for Russia on the National Security Council and a senior analyst at the CNA think tank in Washington, said he knew little about Mizintsev and had never interacted with him.

Keir Giles, a Russia expert at the British think tank Chatham House, said that Mizintsev is a senior figure but that he has spent much of the past decades in jobs that were “effectively administrative — not just staff posts, but running headquarters, command posts, coordination centers.”

“So he’s different from the other prominent senior Russian commanders who have mostly had operational on-the-ground experience in Syria,” Giles wrote in an email.

The United States has not imposed sanctions on Mizintsev. However, Britain’s Foreign Office said he was “known for using reprehensible tactics, including shelling civilian centers in both Aleppo in 2015-16 and now in Mariupol — where atrocities are being perpetuated against Ukrainian people.”

What are cluster and thermobaric ‘vacuum’ weapons, and how has Russia used them in the past?

The destruction of Mariupol has drawn comparisons with the siege of Aleppo in 2016, when Russian forces helped Syrian President Bashar al-Assad crush rebels there in an eight-month campaign that featured the use of cluster bombs, chemical weapons and other banned munitions, in addition to heavy shelling and conventional airstrikes.

According to the Russian Defense Ministry’s website, Mizintsev headed a ministerial coordination body responsible for the return of refugees during the Syrian war.

Mizintsev has been named as Russia’s point man in an agreement with the Ukrainians for a humanitarian cease-fire to allow beleaguered residents of Mariupol to evacuate and critical aid deliveries to enter the city, where more than 100,000 people are estimated to remain trapped.

The cease-fire is “purely for humane purposes,” he said at a briefing Wednesday, the Interfax news agency reported.

But Sergey Bratchuk, a spokesman for the Ukrainian military in Odessa, wrote on Facebook on March 23 that Mizintsev was “personally” controlling the military operation in Mariupol, adding that the Russian leader had ordered his troops to bomb a maternity hospital and other civilian targets.

The Ukrainian government has released audio that it claimed was an intercepted recording of Mizintsev berating and threatening Russian soldiers for their appearance. The Washington Post could not verify the authenticity of the recording.


Ukraine’s former ambassador to Austria, Olexander Scherba, shared the clip on Twitter on March 23, describing Mizintsev as “the butcher of Mariupol.” Scherba later told The Washington Post that he did not know of Mizintsev before the war, adding that he was “not an expert” on the Russian army.

The U.S. says Russia is committing war crimes in Ukraine. Here’s what you need to know.

Giles, the Chatham House expert, said Mizintsev was a surprising figure to take the brunt of the blame for the attack on Mariupol, given his background.

But that does not necessarily mean he was not responsible, Giles said. “I find it hard to believe that, given the visibility into Russian operations that the U.S. and the U.K. have proven through their intelligence disclosures, that accusation can’t be based on something substantial.”

The relative anonymity of the Russian three-star general was apparent in Russia, too, according to Andrei Soldatov, a Russian investigative journalist who studies the country’s security services. But that was nothing unusual, he said.


“He is not a big name in Russia,” Soldatov said, adding that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu was really the only military leader known to the public. He was also popular — a fact that could explain why Russian President Vladimir Putin is cautious about firing the more senior official, Soldatov added.


Shoigu disappeared for 12 days in March before returning to public life on Saturday as abruptly as he had departed. His absence sparked widespread speculation about Russia’s military leadership during a war that is widely perceived to have gone badly for the Kremlin.

Russia prepared for 8 years to be cut off from the West. Meet the payment system that’s still processing its credit card transactions

Fri, April 1, 2022

Igor Grussak—Picture Alliance/Getty Images


Since the start of the Ukraine War, a barrage of western sanctions has crippled the Russian economy and wreaked havoc on its financial system.

The country has been largely cut off from the international payment system SWIFT, seen its access to $630 billion in foreign exchange reserves restricted, and watched as more than $17 billion in assets were seized from Russian oligarchs.

But for the past eight years, Russia has been preparing for the worst.

In June of 2014, just three months after its invasion of the Crimean Peninsula, the country established its own payment system to help process credit card transactions domestically. Russia’s National Payment Card System—known to Russians as NSPK—has continued to process credit card transactions during the latest fighting in Ukraine.


Even though Mastercard, Visa, American Express, PayPal, and Discover have all suspended their operations in Russia, its citizens aren’t experiencing the type of disruption many might expect.

Mastercard told Fortune via email that credit cards issued by Russian banks are no longer supported by its network. Instead, credit cards being used in Russia are now processed over something called a “switch,” run by the Central Bank of Russia.

Dr. Leo Lipis, the CEO of the payments industry consulting firm Lipis Advisors, said that a switch is “a hub for communication that connects the various banks involved in a payments network.”

This means Russian consumers relying on locally-issued cards bearing the Mastercard logo can still use their cards like they normally would, Lipis noted.

A spokesperson for Mastercard confirmed in a separate email to Fortune that the company doesn’t have the ability to block domestic transactions in Russia, but it receives “no benefit” from them. This is because Mastercard, along with other Western companies, signed an agreement for their transactions to be processed by NSPK in 2015.

Russians are still blocked from using Western credit cards outside of the country, but that’s only helped the Kremlin’s goal of keeping assets from moving abroad. The sanctions also boosted Russia’s own credit card company, MIR, which is built on the back of NSPK and owned by the Central Bank of Russia.

When MIR debuted in late 2015, Russians were slow to adopt the card. Then, the government mandated that public sector employees receiving state funds and welfare benefits use MIR payment cards, spawning new growth for the firm.

“When you go back to 2015, Visa and MasterCard pretty much shared the Russian market 50-50,” Lipis said. “And by the time you get to 2020, the market is shared three ways.”

Today, there are more than 100 million MIR cards issued, according to the company. And with U.S. card companies leaving Russia, MIR can more easily grow its market share.

In recent years, other countries, including Turkey, India, and China, have also developed their own payment systems to limit the influence of U.S. credit card companies and limit the pain caused by any sanctions.

After the recent invasion, Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank, turned to China’s Union Pay and the so-called Cross-border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) in an effort to circumvent Western sanctions and issue new cards.

Union Pay has agreements with many European and U.S. credit card networks that allow foreign cards to be processed through its payment system and accepted in some Western countries, particularly in tourist destinations, Lipis said.

The payment systems expert noted that China’s Union Pay could be opening itself up to “secondary sanctions” from the West if it knowingly helps Russian banks circumvent sanctions.

Still, when it comes to processing transactions abroad, Russia’s MIR and the Chinese payment systems aren’t “adequate substitutes” for U.S.-based payment systems like Visa and Mastercard, Lipis said. And they carry less than 0.5% of the total value of payments made via SWIFT.

“There is some truth to the Visa slogan of it's everywhere you want to be,” he added.

This story was originally featured on Fortune.com

The US reportedly watered down sanctions against a key Russian oligarch out of fear that disrupting his business empire could hurt the global economy

ALL HIS MOOLA IS IN TRUSTS


Hannah Towey
Thu, March 31, 2022

Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images

The US Treasury issued a special license exempting Alisher Usmanov's businesses from sanctions.

The move makes it legal for the oligarch's entities to continue doing business with US companies.

Officials reportedly feared that blocking his network of businesses could disrupt global trade.

The US Treasury made exemptions to sanctions on Alisher Usmanov, the Russian businessperson described by the European Union as one of President Vladimir Putin's "favorite oligarchs" whose net worth is estimated to be about $19.6 billion.

US officials feared that blocking the hundreds of businesses believed to be connected to Usmanov could wreak havoc on the global economy and supply chain, current and former Treasury Department employees told The Wall Street Journal.

To mitigate repercussions, the US focused sanctions on assets personally linked to Usmanov — such as his superyacht and private jet — instead of his business entities. The Journal reported the move was an example of sanctions put in place following Russia's invasion of Ukraine that were limited to avoid outsize influence on the US economy.

On March 3, the Treasury issued a special license "authorizing all transactions and unblocking all property of any entity owned 50 percent or more, directly or indirectly, by Usmanov." Typically, businesses with a majority stake owned by sanctioned oligarchs have been blocked from doing business with US companies unless granted an exemption.

In an email exchange dated March 1 reviewed by The Journal with the subject line "Usmanov mitigation," Lisa Palluconi, a Treasury official, detailed the plan for watering down sanctions against Usmanov, saying that "messaging will be that we continue to look into his entities … or something like that."

Insider's email seeking comment sent to an address believed to belong to Palluconi was not immediately returned. Palluconi did not respond to The Journal's request for comment.

The Journal, citing current and former Treasury officials, also reported that the decision to limit the sanctions on Usmanov was partly influenced by a desire to avoid lawsuits from the oligarch, which could eat into the department's limited resources.

"Financial sanctions on Russian elites immediately cut them off from their wealth, their ability to make or receive payments, their travel, and their ability to extract revenue from their companies," a Treasury spokesperson told Insider. "The United States will continue to freeze and seize assets of these elites and their proxies as they support President Putin's unprovoked invasion of Ukraine."

Usmanov's business holdings are substantial. He controls 49% of OOO USM Holding Co., an investment group that owns the iron-ore supplier Metalloinvest and Udokan Copper — which claims to have Russia's largest undeveloped copper deposits. The Russian telecommunications company MegaFon is also a USM subsidiary. And Usmanov purchased the Russian business newspaper Kommersant in 2006 and owns Khimki Group, a real-estate developer, according to PitchBook.

A USM spokesperson told The Journal that the oligarch had previously called the sanctions levied against him by the US, the UK, and the EU "unfounded and unfair." He said his businesses received zero support from the Russian government.

You can read more on the decision-making behind the Usmanov sanctions over at The Wall Street Journal.

Ukrainian Mayor Held Captive Shares What Russian Soldiers Think Putin's 'Special Operation' Really Is

BY : SHOLA LEE ON : 01 APR 2022 0

Ukranian Mayor Held Captive Shares What Russian Soldiers Think Putin's 'Special Operation' Really Is (BFMTV/Alamy)

Ukrainian mayor Ivan Fedorov, who was kidnapped by Russian forces on 11 March and held captive for five days, has now spoken about his experience.

The mayor of Melitopol, a city in southeastern Ukraine, was abducted earlier this month, with a video of his kidnapping being posted on Telegram by the deputy head of Ukraine's presidential office Kyrylo Tymoshenko.

In the video the mayor can be seen with a black bag over his head as Russian forces take him away from the crisis centre where he was working.

Fedorov was released on 16 March and has now spoken about his experience, including what Russian soldiers think Vladimir Putin's invasion is really about.

Speaking to BMF TV, the mayor said that during the time he was held captive he came to understand that the Russian forces didn't know much about Ukraine.

"They weren’t prepared at all. They didn’t know anything about Ukraine and the city of Melitopol. They asked me questions about how the city budget is formed? Or who are the opinion leaders?" the mayor noted, as per the Independent.

"They said they wanted to liberate the town from the Nazis and where were they, and I told them in my 30 years in this town I've never seen a single Nazi."

Fedorov also noted that the soldiers told him they wanted to defend the Russian language, to which he is said to have responded (as per NPR): "95 percent of us speak Russian already and nobody’s stopping us, so there’s no problem."

Ivan Fedorov was received by the French President at the Elysee Palace in Paris, France today (1 April). Credit: Alamy

Reportedly, the forces also told Fedorov that they had heard veterans of World War Two were beaten during commemoration day, which he quickly cleared up.

He said: "I told them I know these men personally, because there aren't many of them left, and they're treated as heroes."

The mayor also told of how he suffered 'psychological violence' having his phone taken away and communication cut off.

Related video:

He said: "Five soldiers were with me in the interrogation room.

"I heard in the cells next, cries of the tortured, and I understood their degree of violence because human lives do not count for them."

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy spoke to the rescued mayor on a call earlier this month.

Speaking further about the war in Ukraine, Fedorov noted that the invasion of his city started as early as 5am on February 24, when Putin declared a 'special military operation' in Ukraine.

With the mayor recalling that a strike targeting the military airfield of Melitopol occurred 'when the whole city was asleep'.

If you would like to donate to the Red Cross Emergency Appeal, which will help provide food, medicines and basic medical supplies, shelter and water to those in Ukraine, click here for more information 

UK

Trans conversion therapy not being banned, despite Government's U-Turn on gay conversion therapy

"Leaving trans & non-binary people out of a conversion therapy ban is completely unacceptable"


By Adam Maidment

Reporter
Gavin Cordon
1 APR 2022

Gay conversion therapy is set to be banned following a U-Turn from Boris Johnson (Image: Joel Goodman)

In the space of less than 24 hours, Boris Johnson has staged a ‘hasty retreat’ after previously announcing that ministers were abandoning plans to ban gay conversion therapy - but plans to outlaw trans conversion therapy still remain a grey area.

On Thursday evening (March 31), Downing Street briefing papers were leaked by ITV News revealing “the PM has agreed we should not move forward with legislation” to outlaw the practice. A Government spokesman had said they were looking instead at ways of preventing it through existing law and “other non-legislative measures”.

Conversion therapy is the idea that someone's sexual or gender identity can be changed or 'cured'. The government first announced plans to move forward on the ban of the practice in the UK in July 2018 under Theresa May’s government but despite numerous consultations, little progress has been made.

READ MORE: Government pledged gay conversion therapy ban in 2018, so why does it still exist?

Within hours of Thursday evening’s announcement, a senior Government source was quoted as saying that legislation would, in fact, be included in the Queen’s Speech in May. The Prime Minister was said to have “changed his mind” after seeing the reaction to the earlier announcement.

Stephen Fry was one of those to criticise the earlier move. The author and actor tweeted: “Just when I thought my contempt for this disgusting government couldn’t sink lower. A curse upon the whole lying, stinking lot of them.”


But the Government source has said the legislation set to be announced in May would cover “only gay conversion therapy, not trans”. There was no immediate official response from Downing Street – although there was no attempt to suggest the latest report was incorrect.

Leaks suggested Boris Johnson was set to announce there would be no bans to conversion therapy in the UK. (Image: Tim Rooke/REX/Shutterstock)

Campaigners working for the ban of conversion therapy for all LGBT people said they welcomed the renewed commitment to a ban for some, but expressed disappointment that the Government failed to uphold its promises to the full LGBT community. Jayne Ozanne, a former government LGBT adviser who survived 20 years of conversion therapy, said vulnerable people were being “thrown under the bus” by the move.

"This is the Prime Minister’s decision and the Prime Minister has shown his true colours with regard to the LGBT community,” she told the PA news agency. “I think he thought he could get away with it, but this will horrify, I am sure, people right across the country who have believed frankly for years that this should have been banned.”

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Dr Paul Martin OBE, Chief Executive of Manchester-based LGBT Foundation, tweeted: "Leaving trans & non-binary people out of a conversion therapy ban is completely unacceptable. We are completely #LGBWithTheT & will not cease in our campaigning to ensure that #TransRightsAreHumanRights."

A spokesperson for LGBT Foundation added: "LGBT Foundation condemns the Prime Minister’s appalling decision to backpedal on his promise to ban so-called 'conversion therapy,’ including continuing to leave trans and non-binary people out after his latest u-turn. Conversion therapy’ is a repulsive practice, which the Government’s own research shows causes harm to LGBTQ+ people. This is supported by NHS England and other major bodies in the UK who have all warned that all forms of ‘conversion therapy’ are “unethical and potentially harmful”.


"This is the latest in a long line of betrayals by the Prime Minister and his Government, proving that we cannot trust them to safeguard LGBTQ+ rights. The lack of protection for trans and non-binary people in this latest round of legislation effectively says that their pain and suffering are acceptable. To be very clear, the rights of marginalised groups facing oppression should never be pitted against each other for political gain. The Prime Minister and Foreign Secretary made personal pledges to ban ‘conversion therapy’; seemingly, they are happy to go against their word.

"We demand that the Prime Minister make a full apology for his decisions and make a full reversal of the current position, to explicitly include trans and non-binary people within the proposed legislation to ban conversion practices. We ask our supporters and allies to stand with us and other human rights organisations in making these demands. LGBT Foundation will continue to campaign for a full and unconditional ban on conversion therapy. We are proud to say #LGBWithTheT.

"Leaving trans & non-binary people out of a conversion therapy ban is completely unacceptable"

Andrew Copson, Chief Executive of social and political change charity Humanists UK, said: “We are glad that the Government has after all heeded public opinion and will ban these practices targeted at gay, lesbian, and bisexual people. The process has already taken too long and the Government has failed to produce draft legislation in a timely manner.

UK
Firm part owned by Sunak’s wife reportedly closing Russia office

Rishi Sunak has come under pressure over wife Akshata Murthy’s 0.91% stake in Infosys, which is now said to be closing down its Moscow site

POOL/AFP via Getty Images
By Amy Gibbons

An Indian technology company in which the Chancellor’s wife owns shares is reportedly closing its office in Russia and seeking replacement roles for its Moscow staff abroad.

Rishi Sunak has come under pressure over his wife, Akshata Murthy, having a 0.91% stake in Infosys, as it continued to operate in Russia after the invasion of Ukraine.

A previous statement from the company, founded by Ms Murthy’s billionaire father NR Narayana Murthy, reportedly said there was a “small team” based in Russia that serviced global clients, but that the firm did not have “any active business relationships with local Russian enterprises”.

But the BBC reported on Friday that Infosys is now closing its office in Russia, and attempting to find replacement roles outside of the country for staff employed in Moscow.

Labour and the Liberal Democrats had both called for Mr Sunak to answer questions over the issue.

In the Commons on Thursday, a Labour shadow minister was forced to withdraw a claim that Mr Sunak was “hypocritical” because of his family’s shares in the company.

In an interview aired later on the BBC’s Newscast podcast, Mr Sunak said: “You know, I think it’s totally fine for people to take shots at me. It’s fair game. I’m the one sitting here and that’s what I signed up for.”

But he said it was “very upsetting” and “wrong” for people to direct criticism at his wife.

“Actually, it’s very upsetting and, I think, wrong for people to try and come at my wife, and you know, beyond that actually, with regard to my father-in-law, for whom I have nothing but enormous pride and admiration for everything that he’s achieved, and no amount of attempted smearing is going to make me change that because he’s wonderful and has achieved a huge amount, as I said, I’m enormously proud of him,” he said.

He jokingly compared himself to Will Smith in “having our wives attacked”, referring to the incident where actor Mr Smith slapped Chris Rock at the Oscars, after the comedian had made a joke about his wife’s alopecia.

“Someone said, ‘Joe Root, Will Smith, and me – not the best of weekends for any of us’,” he said.

Previously, Mr Sunak had refused to answer questions about his wife’s involvement in the company.

Asked on Sky News whether his family was going against advice given to companies over connections with Russia, he said: “I’m an elected politician, and I’m here to talk to you about what I’m responsible for. My wife is not.”

He said he had “nothing to do with that company”.

Infosys and Mr Sunak both declined to comment on the suggestion the firm is closing its office in Russia.

The financial challenges of the chancellor’s wife

Updated insolvency records show that Digme Fitness – part-run, and part-owned by the chancellor’s wife – was £15.1m in the red when it went under


MANDRAKE

Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak and Akshata Murthy attend a reception to celebrate the British Asian Trust at the British Museum (Photo by Max Mumby/Indigo/Getty Images)

Rishi Sunak’s wife, Akshata Murthy, may have acquired a certain skill at banking dividends from her father’s IT consultancy Infosys – £12m over the past year, conveniently overlooking the fact the company is still operating in Russia – but, when it comes to making money on her own account, she finds it a lot more challenging.

Updated insolvency records show that Digme Fitness – part-run, and part-owned by the chancellor’s wife – was £15.1m in the red when it went under, liquidators so far identifying £68,425 in assets to pay towards the bills – with £50,001 coming from a sale of assets to a company co-managed by Digme founder Caoimhe Bamber.

Unsecured creditors have been left £3,237,538 out of pocket, floating-charge holders £2,654,817 and shareholders nursing losses of £9.2m. Murthy held a 4.4% stake, believed to be worth £400,000. She joined the board in 2017 and remains a director.

Digme was placed in administration on February 16, with its collapse attributed to the “Covid-19 lockdowns and cash-flow shortages” by liquidators. At its height, it ran eight fitness studios, and was frequented by Sunak himself.

There are 80 or so firms identified among unsecured creditors. Individual claims range from £10 to £609,000. Local authorities, cleaners and utility firms are among those owed money, as are legal firms. HMRC is owed £415,000 for unpaid VAT and PAYE/NI, and employees are owed £31,886 in employee notice and redundancy pay. Just as well Murthy owns 0.93% of Infosys, with the market value of her stake worth around £734m.

Exxon’s $8 Billion Bet On Brazil Is Paying Off

Editor OilPrice.com
Fri, April 1, 2022

Despite Exxon’s recent exploration hurdle, Brazil has big plans for its oil industry as it hopes to increase its production levels significantly throughout 2022. With uncertainty around what the Russian invasion of Ukraine will mean for the energy industry over the coming months, Brazil is hoping to fill a supply gap as countries around the world look for alternative oil and gas sources. In addition, the replacement of state-run Petrobras’s CEO could shake up Brazil’s oil and gas industry.

Exxon Mobil Corp is currently exploring a new area off the northeast coast of Brazil, but its first well came up dry this week. This is Exxon’s first drilling development in Brazil in a decade, a region that it hopes will help boost its long-term production potential. The energy major has invested heavily in the Brazil and Guyana oil markets in recent years, in the hope of discovering new low-cost oil regions that will help sustain its output and where it can implement low-carbon technologies as it strives to eventually achieve net-zero.

With a stake in 28 offshore blocks, Exxon hopes this stumble will not hinder its production potential in the region. Exxon’s spokesperson, Meghan Macdonald, stated "While we didn’t encounter hydrocarbons at this particular exploration well (Cutthroat-1), ExxonMobil will continue to integrate the data from our findings into regional subsurface interpretation efforts in order to better understand the block’s exploration potential."

And some of Exxon’s other projects have been more fruitful. Its operations with Norway’s Equinor in the Bacalhau offshore field are expected to produce 200,000 bpd of oil and gas by 2024. In 2021, Exxon announced it would be investing 40 percent of an $8 billion total in the field.

This month, Brazil’s Minister of Mines and Energy, Bento Albuquerque, announced plans to boost the country’s oil production by 300,000 bpd, around a 10 percent increase in 2021. Brazil’s output already stands at around 3 million bpd of crude putting it at around ninth place in the world for production.

Albuquerque told the Valor Econômico newspaper, “Countries that have stock, like the US, Japan, India, and others, are releasing. But there also has to be an effort to increase production. She [Jennifer Granholm] asked me if Brazil could be part of this effort and I said ‘of course it can’. We are already increasing production, while most OECD countries have reduced. We have increased our production in the last 3 years.”

The statement came in response to international pressure for oil-producing states to ramp up their oil and gas production as shortages are leading to energy insecurity and rising prices worldwide. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, oil prices soared. In addition, as several countries introduce sanctions on Russian energy products, many governments are looking for alternative sources of oil and gas to ensure their energy security over the coming months.

But some are not so confident about Albuquerque’s aim to increase production. There are plans for three offshore projects to come online in 2022 – the Petrobras Mero 1, with the Guanabara FPSO, producing approximately 150,000 bpd of oil, and Equinor’s Peregrino phase 2 and Peregrino 1 producing around 110,000 bpd. However, the reduced output in Brazil’s other maturing oil fields will likely reduce this output increase.

A local consultant told Bnamericas, “In reality, the increase would have to be over 15%, with 5% to 8% to compensate for the natural decline and another 10% to actually increase production. That would be 500,000b/d of new capacity, which is very unlikely.” This view has been echoed by several experts in the field, suggesting Albuquerque may not be able to deliver on his promise.

While this rapid production increase may not be possible, big changes to the country’s state-owned company could mean a change to the national oil industry is just around the corner. This week, President Bolsonaro moved to replace Petrobras CEO Joaquim Silva e Luna with a new head. The appointment of economist Adriano Pires as CEO of Petrobras and sports giant Rodolfo Landim as chairman is expected to take place in April.

Pires has been adamant in his stance on market pricing policies, pushing for the privatization of the state-run energy firm. Silva e Luna was appointed as CEO only last year after his predecessor was pushed out, suggesting somewhat of a trend. At present, Petrobras shields consumers from the global volatility of energy prices. But many have suggested that the oil prices should reflect the Brent Benchmark, adjusting fuel prices accordingly. However, with the next election taking place in October, Bolsonaro could lose voters if diesel and gasoline prices continue to rise.

Recent stumbling blocks in the search for new oil finds have not dampened Brazil’s optimism for developing its oil industry further over the coming years. As new operations come online, Minister of Mines and Energy, Bento Albuquerque, has announced production increases in response to international shortages. In addition, there is the potential for change in state-owned energy company Petrobras as a market-oriented CEO takes over.

By Felicity Bradstock for Oilprice.com

Elizabeth Warren Calls for US to Create a CBDC

Greg Ahlstrand

Thu, March 31, 2022,

U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) says it's time for the U.S. to create its own central bank digital currency (CBDC). Warren spoke with NBC's Chuck Todd on "Meet the Press Reports," scheduled to air at 10:30 p.m. ET on Thursday. NBCUniversal shared a partial transcript of the conversation with CoinDesk.

• "So a lot that banks do wrong, if you think, 'We could improve that in a digital world,' the answer is, 'Sure you could.' But in that case, let's do a central bank digital currency," Warren told Todd. "Yes, I think it's time for us to move in that direction."

• Responding to Todd's question on whether bitcoin (BTC) will face at minimum being regulated like a commodity, Warren responded, "I think it's going to end up getting regulated," using the subprime mortgage financial crisis that started in 2007 as an example of why it's needed. She didn't say what form such regulations might take.

• In March Warren announced a new bill to block cryptocurrency companies from conducting business with sanctioned companies. The Digital Assets Sanctions Compliance Enhancement Act, introduced with senators Jack Reed (D-R.I.), Mark Warner (D-Va.), Jon Tester (D-Mont.) and others, would allow the U.S. president to add non-U.S.-based crypto companies to sanctions list if they support sanctions evasion.

• On whether the senator saw cryptocurrency as "this decade's real estate bubble," Warren replied, "The whole digital world has worked very much like a bubble works. What is it moved up on? It's moved up on the fact that people all tell each other that it's going to be great, just again like it was on that real estate market. How many times did people say, 'Real Estate always goes up. It never goes down?' They said it decades ago before the last real estate bubble. They said it in the 2000s, before the crash in 2008."