Wednesday, April 06, 2022

HEALTH

Warning: Climate Crisis Is Now the

Single Biggest Health Threat Facing Humanity


This year’s World Health Day launched a new warning: more than 13 million deaths around the world each year are due to “avoidable environmental causes”. Credit: Bigstock

MADRID, Apr 5 2022 (IPS) - While the world’s top scientists and experts continue their arduous work to finally submit to politicians at the 27th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 27) in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt (7-18 November 2022), a new alert now emerges: the climate crisis has already become the single biggest health threat to humankind.

But this new alert should be no surprise: it rather constitutes the logic, expected consequences of the more and more intensive pressure of the life-keeping and life-saving natural resources.

No wonder: there are too many chemicals, lead, mercury, microplastics and a long etcetera, poisoning the air we breathe, the food we eat, the water we drink, the oceans, the soil, the forests, the indispensable biodiversity and now also the world’s large reserves of water in both the North and South Poles.

Several of these consequences are visible –though apparently unwanted to be seen: destructive floods, deadly droughts, unprecedented heatwaves, the Earth’s lungs are suffocated, biodiversity is lost. And there is an increased risk of new zoonotic diseases transmitted between animals and humans.

This year’s World Health Day, marked on 7 April, launched the new warning. In fact, the World Health Organization (WHO) estimates that more than 13 million deaths around the world each year are due to “avoidable environmental causes.”

This includes the climate crisis which is “the single biggest health threat facing humanity.” “The climate crisis is also a health crisis.”

 

The impacts

The world body reminds of the following facts:

 

2 billion people lack safe drinking-water globally, and 3.6 billion people lack safe toilets. Credit: Jeffrey Moyo/IPS

Half of humanity already lives in danger zone

In spite of these and other dangers, the world is visibly doing too little, not to say almost nothing. In fact, the goal to limit future warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, highlighted in the Paris Agreement on climate change, and driven home in last November’s COP26, gathering in Glasgow, is now on “life support” and “in intensive care,” the UN chief told the Economist Sustainability Summit on 21 March 2022.

The United Nations’ Secretary-General António Guterres highlighted some of the progress made at COP 26 last year but pointing to “the enormous emissions gap” conceded that “the main problem was not solved – it was not even properly addressed.”

 

Worsening

According to current national commitments, however, global emissions are set to increase by almost 14 percent during the rest of the decade.  Last year alone, global energy-related CO2 emissions grew by six percent “to their highest levels in history,” Guterres said, as coal emissions surged “to record highs.”

With the planet warming by as much as 1.2 degrees, and where climate disasters have forced 30 million to flee their homes, Guterres warned: “We are sleepwalking to climate catastrophe.”

 

“This is madness”

If we do not want to “kiss 1.5 goodbye…we need to go to the source – the G20” (group of leading industrialised nations), the UN chief said.

Noting that developed and emerging G20 economies account for 80 percent of all global emissions, he drew attention to a high dependence on coal but underscored that “our planet can’t afford a climate blame game.”

“Countries could become so consumed by the immediate fossil fuel supply gap that they neglect or knee-cap policies to cut fossil fuel use,” Guterres insisted. “This is madness.”

As fossil fuels reliance continues to put the global economy and energy security at the mercy of geopolitical shocks and crises, “the timeline to cut emissions by 45 percent is extremely tight.”

 

No cure in sight

In spite of all the feasible remedies indicated by the world scientific community –and the visible effects of the ongoing climate emergency– there is no actual cure in sight.

 

See what is at stake:

Politicians subsidise fossil fuel with six trillion dollars in just one year. In fact, they have spent such a huge amount –six trillion US dollars– from taxpayers’ money to subsidise fossil fuels in just one year: 2020. And they are set to increase the figure to nearly seven trillion by 2025.

Moreover, governments will double the production of energy from these very same, highly dangerous, global warming generators.

Carbon dioxide is the single most important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere, accounting for approximately 66% of the warming effect on the climate, mainly because of fossil fuel combustion and cement production

There are more lethal gases and fewer, weaker sinks

With one million species endangered, the web of life is at risk of extinction

Half world’s population, exposed to floods, storms, tsunamis, by 2030

The “Kidneys of the Earth” Are Disappearing, as Wetlands, which are considered as a natural solution to the global threat of climate change. They absorb carbon dioxide, help slow global heating and reduce pollution, hence they are often referred to as the “Kidneys of the Earth”. Specifically, peatlands alone store twice as much carbon as all the world’s forests combined

Projection indicate that there will be a severe water stress, absolute scarcity for 2 to 4 billion humans by 2025

Meanwhile, the too harmful march of salt and plastics continue unabated on world soils

And there is another major consequence: millions of humans are attempting to escape the devastating impact of the climate crisis, fleeing their homes as migrants and refugees. What would Europe, the US, do with one billion climate refugees?

 

Pandemics fueled by climate change

Should all the above not be enough, please also know that the World Health Organization has just launched a global bug-busting plan to prevent new pandemics, which are feared to be fueled by climate change.

The plan is aimed to stop the spread of common, mosquito-borne diseases – known as “arboviruses” – which threaten more than half the world’s population. And the main target of the initiative is four of the most common arboviruses: Dengue, Yellow fever, Chikungunya, and Zika.

The World Health Organization poses some sound questions: Are we able to reimagine a world where clean air, water and food are available to all? Where economies are focused on health and well-being? Where cities are liveable and people have control over their health and the health of the planet?

Up to you to judge!

French markets wake up to risk of Le Pen
presidency



By Julien Ponthus, Sudip Kar-Gupta

LONDON/PARIS (Reuters) -French stocks and bonds fell on Tuesday as markets started to acknowledge the risk of far-right candidate Marine Le Pen winning this month’s presidential elections against incumbent Emmanuel Macron.

France’s benchmark CAC-40 equity index was down 1.3% by 1215 GMT, underperforming the pan-European STOXX 600 index which was flat.

French government borrowing costs also surged, with yields on 10-year debt up 10 basis points.

The spread between the yield of 10-year French and German government bonds -- essentially the premium demanded by investors to hold French debt -- rose to 54 basis points, levels unseen since the COVID-19 market crash of 2020.

Le Pen, whose presidential campaign has gained momentum in recent days, on Monday captured 48.5% of voter intentions in an opinion poll of a likely runoff against Macron, the highest score she has ever notched.

The Harris Interactive poll for business magazine Challenges said a Macron victory - which pollsters had considered almost a foregone conclusion - was now within the margin of error.

“Markets woke up on Le Pen,” said Jerome Legras, head of research at Axiom Alternative Investments.

French banks Societe Generale, BNP Paribas and Credit Agricole took the biggest hits with losses of 4-6%, far more than the 1.3% fall on a broader European banking index.

One trader said the selloff was particularly notable in stocks seen vulnerable to a Le Pen election.

“Look at Vinci and Eiffage, their underperformance is a casualty of Le Pen risk”, the trader said, pointing to the far-right leader’s plans to nationalise French highway operators.

Shares in the two infrastructure groups fell around 5% on the day.

The turmoil rekindles memories of the 2017 election when fears of a far-left or far-right win sent French government borrowing costs soaring and pushed stocks sharply lower.

Many investors see Le Pen’s platform, which aims to keep the legal retirement age at 62 years, as generous in terms of public spending. She is also viewed as less business-friendly than Macron.

“Le Pen would likely be seen by markets as less reliable on public spending and economic competitiveness, and an unenthusiastic motor and/or unreliable partner for Germany and NATO at a crucial moment for Europe and the West,” NatWest economist Giovanni Zanni told clients last week.

FRENCH DEBT

Zanni reckons a surprise win for Le Pen could deliver a 50 basis points hit to French 10-year spreads over Germany -- essentially the premium demanded by investors to hold French debt. That would take the spread to a similar level as Spain which has a lower credit rating.

In the run up to the 2017 election, spreads had blown out to nearly 80 bps.

Francois Raynaud, multi-asset fund manager at Edmond de Rothschild Asset Management, said selling French debt -- known as OATs - versus the German Bund through 10-year futures was a good hedge against a surprise election result.

“By default, it seems judicious to us to take up protection by being underweight in terms of French weightings versus other indexes, or via the OAT futures,” Raynaud told Reuters on Monday, before the latest sell-off.

Many investors remain unfazed -- Grace Peters, head of EMEA investment strategy at JP Morgan Private Bank, still favours French stocks, especially luxury and energy which are less vulnerable to the domestic economy.

“A Le Pen victory is the wild card out there which could be disruptive. But the base case is still for Mr Macron,” Peters said.

Others are scanning markets for risks.

The euro fell a quarter percent against the safe-haven Swiss franc on Tuesday to a one-month low but Adam Cole, a strategist at RBC Capital Markets, sees the euro’s risk premium as likely to rise in coming weeks.

“Might financial markets also be showing signs of complacency ahead of the polls? We think that is a significant risk,” he said.


Reporting by Julien Ponthus and Samuel Indykin London, Sudip Kar-Gupta in Paris and Danilo Masoni in Milan; Editing by Sujata Rao and Ed Osmond


Germany: 84% Of Refugees From Ukraine Are Women, Survey Reveals

April 5, 2022
© Ilona Lablaika | Dreamstime.com

Around 84 per cent of the total number of people that have reached Germany fleeing the war from Ukraine are women, a systematic survey conducted from March 24 to 20 on behalf of the Federal Ministry of the Interior of Germany (BMI) shows.

The results of a total of 1,936 interviews and surveys conducted in Berlin, Hamburg and Munich and on the BMI websites enable the Ministry to come up with conclusions on the motivations when choosing a flight destination and the most important refugee needs in Germany, SchengenVisaInfo.com reports.

According to the survey 84 per cent of the Ukrainian refugees in Germany are women, of whom 58 per cent left Ukraine with their children, and only 17 per cent came unaccompanied.

Meanwhile, the average age of the interviewed refugees is 38.2 years old.

BMI revealed that the most common route of escape was through Poland, which involved about 65 per cent of those who decided to enter the country, while for 82 per cent of respondents, Germany was the main destination.

The German government has also announced that Germany4Ukraine is already being used as an app that expands the digital currency offer for Ukrainian refugees and provides fast mobile access to information and assistance offers.

In a statement issued on April 4, the German government stressed that this application could also be downloaded from app stores such as Google and Apple. According to the government, about 10,000 page views of the app are recorded per day.

“The official, trustworthy and secure point of contact offers arrivals information for their start in Germany in Ukrainian, Russian, English and German. The offer is constantly being further developed and includes up-to-date information on topics such as accommodation, medical care, mobility and job offers and social benefits. The digital residence permit for war refugees will soon be available via the portal,” the statement reads.

Federal Interior Minister Nancy Faeser also visited the development team at the digitization lab at the East Side Gallery in Berlin.

In this regard, Minister Faeser noted that this cooperation with refugees from Ukraine to provide them with good information is very effective and touching at the same time, claiming that reliable and comprehensive information on medical help, accommodation and registration is vital for these refugees.

“In order to be able to convince refugees to continue travelling to other cities outside the metropolitan areas, we have to know their needs and actively inform them,” she added.

The laboratory format tested by the implementation of the Online Access Act focuses on user-oriented approaches, while the aim is to enable a pragmatic integration of administrative services.

The German government also said that many experts from the administration, designers and technicians are working together with Ukrainian refugees on an interdisciplinary basis to promote innovations in digitalization.

On March 25, Germany accepted the first 134 Ukrainian refugees coming from Moldova and successfully settled in Frankfurt. Later, 117 other Ukrainian refugees arrived from Moldova to Erfurt of Germany, with a second flight.

>> Timeline of Ukrainian Refugees Reaching EU Countries Amid Russian Invasion


US Missile Boats Could Have Saved Ukraine















 APRIL 6, 2022
 
Two combatant craft assault crafts perform a high-speed pass alongside the Expeditionary Sea Base USS Hershel "Woody" Williams (ESB 4) in the Mediterranean Sea, May 26, 2021. 
Photo: Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Eric Coffer/US Navy

The US Navy needs to develop small missile boats that can be airlifted to places where larger ships and boats cannot sail to or will arrive too late.

Unlike the small special warfare boats that can be flown in to conduct low-end and low-intensity missions, this new generation of missile boats must be capable of high-end warfighting in a contested environment.

Small Enough for Airlifting


While Russia amassed the largest land force in Europe since World War II, the US Navy’s Carrier Strike Group and allied navies conducted exercises in the Mediterranean Sea, with no possibility of entering into the Black Sea to deter Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The geography and Turkey’s control over the Dardanelles and the Bosporus prevent the US Navy’s strike groups and large numbers of blue-water combatants from transiting into the Black Sea and operating within range of Ukraine.

Short of airlifting vessels into the Black Sea, the US Navy had no other realistic option to help save Ukraine.

A Ukrainian serviceman stands near a destroyed Russian tank in Trostyanets. 
Photo: Fadel Senna/AFP

However, the US Navy does not have missile boats capable of being airlifted by US Air Force Lockheed C-5 Galaxy and Boeing C-17 Globemaster III.

Such boats could operate where US cruisers and destroyers are too large to sail into and where existing US brown-water and Special Warfare (SPECWAR) craft are too lightly armed.

Although the US Navy acquired six Pegasus-class Patrol Hydrofoil Missile boats in the 1970s and 1980s to fight against Warsaw Pact missile boats in the Baltic Sea, the service never required a missile boat to be small enough for airlifting.

Mark V Special Operations Craft


The US Naval SPECWAR had the Mark V Special Operations Craft (MK V SOC), capable of being transported by the C-5 Galaxy. Larger than its successor, the Combatant Craft Assault, the MK V SOC was designed for a crew of five to use speed and stealth to carry up to 16 SEALs in SPECWAR missions.

Within 48 hours of notification, two USAF C-5 Galaxy aircraft can transport an MK V detachment of two craft with all the supporting shore vehicles, equipment, and personnel to commence operations within 24 hours after arriving at a forward staging location.

A combatant craft assault craft steams alongside the Expeditionary Sea Base USS Hershel “Woody” Williams (ESB 4) in the Mediterranean Sea, May 26, 2021.
 Photo: Mass Communication Specialist 2nd Class Eric Coffer/US Navy

Combining anti-ship missiles, even one as small as the 410-kilogram Naval Strike Missile (NSM), to a craft that matches the MK V’s weight, size, and low radar cross-section is within the realm of the possible.

The MK V is larger and heavier than a contemporary class of missile boats, the Dvora-class fast patrol boat. The MK V displaces over 57 tons, is 25 meters long, and 5.25 meters high and wide. The Dvora is smaller, displaces 45 tons fully loaded, is 21.5 meters long, 5.5 meters wide, and can carry two heavier 538-kilogram Taiwan Hsiung Feng I missiles or two 430-kilogram Israeli Gabriel Mk I anti-ship missiles.
Broad Use

The solution does not need to be an MK V with NSM exclusively and is not limited to the fighting in Ukraine and the Black Sea.

These boats can be airlifted to operate with NATO in the Baltic Sea if Russia’s invasion of Ukraine expands to the Baltic states or deployed from well-deck amphibious warships to support the US Marine Corps Expeditionary Advanced Base Operations mission in the Indo-Pacific.

Germany’s refusal to provide missile boats to Ukraine in the lead-up to Russia’s invasion demonstrates the need for a US-made missile boat for allied and coalition navies that require an affordable modern missile boat.

-------

Andy Cichon is a retired United States Naval Officer, who has served in various ships and staffs, including as Air Warfare Project Manager at the Royal Australian Navy’s Australian Maritime Warfare Centre, and in the Chief of Naval Operations’ staff for the US Navy’s international engagement with Australia, China, Taiwan, South Korea, and Vietnam.

He works for SAIC as a civilian war gamer at the US Navy’s Tactical Training Group Pacific.

His views are his own.

The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of The Defense Post.



General Atomics Upgrades Gray Eagle-Extended Range Armed Drone


Gray Eagle-Extended Range unmanned aerial system. 
Image: General Atomics-Aeronautical Systems, Inc.
 APRIL 5, 2022

General Atomics Aeronautical Systems has begun Gray Eagle-Extended Range (GE-ER) Unmanned Aircraft System factory upgrades, including manned-unmanned teaming capability.

The upgrade program includes two GE-ER drones for the US Army’s Multi-Domain Operations (MDO). “Flight test and qualification” will take place later this year.

The upgrade follows a series of flight demonstrations showcasing the GE-ER’s “long-range sensors, Air Launched Effects (ALE) and Scalable Command and Control (SC2).”


Air Launched Drones

The ALEs are small, armed drones capable of being launched from manned and unmanned platforms, extending their reach, speed, and lethality. According to the Army’s Combat Capabilities Development Command, the air launched drones are crucial to penetrating enemy anti-access/area-denial structures from a stand-off range.

In one of the demonstrations, the GE-ER identified emitters at 25,000 feet (7,620 meters) using an L3Harris Rio Nino lightweight Communications Intelligence payload and integrated antenna array. It “provided single aircraft geo-location and cross-cueing to the onboard Synthetic Aperture Radar to produce precision coordinates sufficient for targeting within minutes.”

Greater Power, Endurance

The GE-ER is powered by a 180HP diesel engine enabling a maximum takeoff weight of 4,200 pounds (1,905 kilograms) compared to the Gray Eagle’s 160 HP and 3,600 pounds (1,633 kilograms).

The craft’s “deep belly design and 500-pound (227 kilograms) centerline hard point allows for 900 pounds (408 kilograms) of internal fuel load,” in addition to “an external fuel pod that can accommodate an additional 450 pounds (204 kilograms),” compared to the Gray Eagle’s 600 pounds (272 kilograms).

AI & Collective Sense-Making Processes, with Katherine Milligan

April 5, 2022



In this Artificial Intelligence & Equality podcast, Senior Fellow Anja Kaspersen and Katherine Milligan, director of the Collective Change Lab, explore what we can learn from the social impact and entrepreneurship movement to govern the potential impact of AI systems. What is systems change and collective sense-making? And why is it relevant to reenvisioning ethics in the information age?

AUTHORITARIAN REGIMES USA LIKES
Egypt: Detained former presidential candidate suffers 'barbaric' assault in prison

Abdel Moneim Aboul-Fotouh suffers alleged attack by guards after protesting about conditions in notorious Tora prison

Since Sisi’s coup at least 731 people have died in custody 


Presidential candidate Abdel Moneim Aboul-Fotouh on stage during an election campaign rally in Cairo, 2 April 2012 (AFP)

By MEE staff
Published date: 5 April 2022 

Former Egyptian presidential candidate Abdel Moneim Aboul-Fotouh has been subjected to a "barbaric" assault by guards in his cell at the notorious Tora prison complex, according to his family.

Aboul-Fotouh, 71, a former member of the Muslim Brotherhood and leader of the opposition party Strong Egypt, was allegedly attacked on 23 March at the complex’s Tora Farm Prison, the family said in a statement on Facebook.

According to a legal source, who spoke to the independent Egyptian online newspaper Mada Masr on condition of anonymity, Aboul-Fotouh, who ran for president in 2012, was preparing to file an official complaint with the public prosecutor.

As a result of the alleged assault, Aboul-Fotouh, who has had multiple heart attacks and other chronic health issues while in detention, had an episode of angina, according to the statement. Aboul-Fotouh has long complained of medical negligence since his arrest and detention in February 2018, a practice that has been widely documented in Egyptian prisons by human rights groups.

He was arrested that year on charges of spreading false news to harm national interests. He has since faced several other charges but has not been brought to trial.

In June 2021, the State Security Prosecution issued a decision to release Aboul-Fotouh, dropping some of the charges he faced since his arrest, but his detention was renewed after the prosecution filed new charges against him pending another case.

In February 2020, he was added to a new case after the expiry of his initial provisional detention.

While the maximum period of pre-trial detention is two years, according to Egyptian law, it is common in Egypt to bring renewed charges against political detainees after the expiry of the two-year period, in what rights groups have described as “recycling of existing cases” to enable indefinite detention.
'A slow death'

Aboul-Fotouh had started a protest on 29 January this year, whereby he began refusing to see visitors. The protest stemmed from what the family's statement said were “exceptional” prison conditions where "restrictions were imposed on [Aboul-Fotouh] without justification”.

The alleged assault took place after the prisoner requested a meeting with the prison warden in order to file a complaint explaining why he was refusing to receive visitors, claimed his family.

Egypt: Former presidential candidate survives heart attack in prison  Read More »


Last July, Aboul-Fotouh survived a “severe heart attack” in prison, according to his son. He claimed that the guard who was outside the cell “witnessed his suffering and as he tried to seek help for hours, to no avail".

The politician's family has repeatedly accused authorities of subjecting him to a "slow death" due to medical negligence and the tough conditions of his solitary confinement.

“After more than three years and five months in pretrial detention, in solitary confinement, in complete isolation, and a continuous deterioration in his health that threatens his life at every moment, when will he return home?” Aboul-Fotouh's son said.

Aboul-Fotouh is one of at least 60,000 political prisoners estimated to have been jailed since Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi took power in a coup in 2013.

Sisi overthrew Mohamed Morsi, the country's first democratically elected president, who was affiliated to the Muslim Brotherhood.

Several Brotherhood leaders have died in custody in recent years, including Morsi and former MP Essam el-Erian.

Rights groups have said their deaths were most likely due to medical negligence and poor conditions in jails.


According to the Geneva-based Committee for Justice, since Sisi’s coup at least 731 people have died in custody due to denial of healthcare.
Global groups propose pandemic plan costing US$10 billion a year

Julie Steenhuysen
Reuters Staff
Published Tuesday, April 5, 2022 

Workers in PPE unload groceries from a truck before distributing them to local residents under the COVID-19 lockdown in Shanghai, China Tuesday, April 05, 2022. 
(Chinatopix Via AP) CHINA OUT

It will take US$15 billion in grants this year and another $10 billion annually after that to establish and maintain an adequate toolkit to respond to COVID-19 and address future pandemic threats, according to four organizations focused on global health and the economy.


The estimate is laid out in "A Global Strategy to Manage the Long-term Risks of COVID-19," a working paper published on Tuesday by the International Monetary Fund, in partnership with the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), the Global Fund and Wellcome Trust.

In the paper, the four global groups said that ending the pandemic everywhere remains an urgent economic, health and moral priority for the world.

"Given the many possible scenarios for the evolution of COVID-19 (from benign to severe) and given the limited resources countries have, we need a new strategy," Gita Gopinath, the IMF's First Deputy Managing Director, said in a statement.

The IMF estimated the pandemic resulted in US$13.8 trillion in cumulative losses as of January 2022.

Gopinath told a news briefing that the IMF expected to revise down its global growth forecast later this month to factor in the cost of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the continued pandemic.

"The cost to the economy of more general disruptions and the war in Ukraine is going to be very significant," Gopinath said, adding that the estimated cost of the pandemic would also rise.

"Since the pandemic is not over, and we have disruptions to the supply chain that continue and other costs, including human capital, that number is only going up," Gopinath added.

Gopinath said countries need vaccines, tests, treatments and an improved health infrastructure to tackle COVID-19 and other deadly diseases.

"These last two years have shown that remarkable progress is possible when the world comes together and supports science boldly at scale, across borders," said Jeremy Farrar, director at the Wellcome Trust charity. "Now is not the time to ease up – the virus's next move is anything but certain and the risk of new variants high."

Richard Hatchett, chief executive of CEPI, said vaccines will be critical to any future response, but they must be accompanied by investments in global surveillance, research and development, manufacturing and health systems.

"This is a crisis that will continue to unfold and unspool over time if we don't put the resources against it that it requires," Hatchett said.

(Reporting by Julie Steenhuysen in Chicago; Additional reporting by Andrea Shalal in Washington. Editing by Chizu Nomiyama and Will Dunham)

Opinion: Europe Is Sleepwalking Into Another World War

 April 5, 2022, Tuesday 
Bulgaria: Opinion: Europe Is Sleepwalking Into Another World WarUnsplash











By Boaventura de Sousa Santos/Globetrotter


More than 100 years after World War I, Europe’s leaders are sleepwalking toward a new all-out war. In 1914, the European governments believed that the war would last three weeks; it lasted four years and resulted in more than 20 million deaths. The same nonchalance is visible with the war in Ukraine. The dominant view is that the aggressor should be left broken and humbled. Then, the defeated power was Germany. Some dissenting voices, such as John Maynard Keynes, felt that the humbling of Germany would be a disaster. Their warnings went unheeded. Twenty-one years later, Europe was back at war, which lasted six years and killed 70 million people. History neither repeats itself nor seems to teach us anything, but it does illustrate similarities and differences.

The hundred years before 1914 offered Europe relative peace. What wars took place were of a short-lived nature. The reason for this was the Congress of Vienna (1814-15), which brought together the victors and the vanquished from the Napoleonic wars to create a lasting peace. The chair of the conference was Klemens von Metternich, who made sure that the defeated power (France) paid for its actions with territorial losses but that it signed the treaty along with Austria, England, Prussia, and Russia to secure peace with dignity.

Negotiation or Total Defeat

While the Napoleonic wars took place between European powers, today’s war is between a European (Russia) and a non-European (United States) power. It is a proxy war, with both sides using a third country (Ukraine) to achieve geostrategic goals that go well beyond the country in question and the continent to which it belongs. Russia is at war with Ukraine because it is a war with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), which is commanded by the United States. NATO has been at the service of U.S. geostrategic interests. Once a steadfast champion of the self-determination of peoples, Russia is now illegally sacrificing these same principles to assert its own security concerns, after failing to have them recognized through peaceful means, and out of an undisguised imperial nostalgia. For its part, since the end of the first cold war, the U.S. has striven to deepen Russia’s defeat, a defeat which in fact was probably more self-inflicted than brought about by any superiority on the part of its opponent.

From NATO’s perspective, the goal of the war in Ukraine is to inflict an unconditional defeat on Russia, preferably one that leads to regime change in Moscow. The duration of the war depends on that goal. Where is Russia’s incentive to end the war when British Prime Minister Boris Johnson permits himself to say that sanctions against Russia will continue, no matter what Russia’s position is now? Would it be sufficient for Russian President Vladimir Putin to be ousted (as was the case with Napoleon in 1815), or is the truth of the matter that the NATO countries insist on the ousting of Russia itself so that China’s expansion can be halted? There was also regime change in the 1918 humbling of Germany, but it all ended up leading to Hitler and an even more devastating war. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s political greatness could be construed as being either in recognition of the brave patriot who defends his country from the invader to the last drop of blood or in recognition of the brave patriot who, faced with the imminence of so many innocent deaths and the asymmetry in military strength, successfully enlists the support of his allies to negotiate fiercely to secure a dignified peace. The fact that the former construction is now the prevalent one probably has little to do with President Zelenskyy’s personal preferences.

Where Is Europe?

During the two world wars of the 20th century, Europe was the self-proclaimed center of the world. That is why we call the two wars world wars. About 4 million of Europe’s troops were in fact African and Asian. Many thousands of non-European deaths were the price paid by the inhabitants of remote colonies of the countries involved, sacrificed in a war that did not concern them.

Now, Europe is but a small corner of the world, which the war in Ukraine will render even smaller. For centuries, Europe was merely the western tip of Eurasia, the huge landmass that stretched from China to the Iberian Peninsula and witnessed the exchange of knowledge, products, scientific innovations, and cultures. Much of what was later attributed to European exceptionalism (from the scientific revolution of the 16th century to the industrial revolution in the 19th century) cannot be understood, nor would it have been possible, without those centuries-old exchanges. The war in Ukraine—especially if it goes on for too long—runs the risk not only of amputating one of Europe’s historic powers (Russia), but also of isolating it from the rest of the world, notably from China.

The world is far bigger than what you get to see through European or North American lenses. Seeing through these lenses, Europeans have never felt so strong, so close to their larger partner, so sure of standing on the right side of history, with the whole planet being run by the rules of the “liberal order,” a world finally feeling strong enough to go forth sometime soon and conquer—or at least neutralize—China, after having destroyed China’s main partner, Russia.

Seeing through non-European lenses, on the other hand, Europe and the U.S. stand haughtily all but alone, probably capable of winning one battle, but on their way to certain defeat in the war of history. More than half of the world’s population lives in countries that have decided not to join the sanctions against Russia. Many of the United Nations member states that voted (rightly) against the illegal invasion of Ukraine did so based on their historical experience, which consisted of being invaded, not by Russia, but rather by the U.S., England, France, or Israel. Their decision was not dictated by ignorance, but by precaution. How can they trust countries that created SWIFT—a financial transfer system aimed at protecting economic transactions against political interference—only to end up removing from that system a country on political grounds? Countries that arrogate to themselves the power to confiscate the financial and gold reserves of sovereign nations like Afghanistan, Venezuela, and now Russia? Countries that trumpet freedom of expression as a sacrosanct universal value, but resort to censorship the moment they are exposed by it? Countries that are supposed to cherish democracy and yet have no qualms about staging a coup whenever an election goes against their interests? Countries in whose eyes the “dictator” Nicolás Maduro becomes a trading partner overnight because the circumstances have changed? The world is no longer a place of innocence—if it ever was.

Boaventura de Sousa Santos is the emeritus professor of sociology at the University of Coimbra in Portugal. His most recent book is Decolonizing the University: The Challenge of Deep Cognitive Justice.

/Globetrotter

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BULGARIA

Riad Salameh: The Lebanese mafia’s consigliere who knows too much


DR. DANIA KOLEILAT KHATIB
February 20, 2022

The consigliere is an important figure in mafia circles. He is the one who negotiates and makes deals on behalf of the chief, both within the mafia and with external parties. It is no exaggeration to say that Lebanon is a country run by a mafia. If we consider the current ruling class as the mafia, then central bank governor Riad Salameh is the consigliere, as all deals go through him. Last week, Judge Ghada Aoun issued a warrant to arrest Salameh, who of course left the country on a private jet just in time. If the country's mafia has decided to get rid of the consigliere who knows too much, what is next for Lebanon?

Of course, Salameh is a culprit in the entire corruption scam. However, he is not the source of corruption, but merely a conduit that facilitated it. In order to understand Salameh’s role, it is important to understand the relationship between the government or ruling class, the central bank and the banking system. People put deposits into the banks, lured by high interest rates. The banks then put this money in treasury bills with the central bank at an even higher rate. The central bank lent the money it took from the banks to the mafia, which squandered it on inflated public contracts and expenses and, of course, kickbacks. Salameh worked as the cashier of the corrupt elite, allowing them to finance their corruption with the hard-earned money of regular citizens.

The position of central bank governor has a lot of independence. Salameh could have said no to the ruling elite, but he preferred to become their partner rather than be sacked. He knew very well that the money was feeding corruption, but he did not seem to mind and no one dared say anything. In fact, when Byblos Bank chairman Francois Bassil in 2014raised alarm bells and accused the government of stealing depositors’ funds, he was admonished by Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri and had to retract his accusations and apologize.

Salameh knows it all — he knows who took what and when. He is a deal-maker who was able to adapt to all the different governments. When Michel Aoun became president in 2016, it was believed he would get rid of Salameh and expose him. However, the two suddenly found an arrangement and Salameh was givenanother term as governor of the central bank.

In 2020, the investigative outlet Darajissued a report on Salameh’s immense wealth, which is spread across the world, some in his name and some in the names of his brotherand a female associate. Perhaps now the ruling elite think it is a good time to get rid of the consigliere by giving him a proper exit. They definitely do not want him to go on trial and testify against them. However, the arrest warrant also offers them a scapegoat: They can blame Salameh for the bad policies and can always say that they wanted him arrested and for an investigation to be carried out, but too bad that he ran away before any of that could happen. That could be a good stunt prior to the elections, especially since the ruling class has lost all credibility with the people.

On the other hand, Salameh, who is under the microscope globally, cannot give them what is left of the people’s deposits or the gold reserve without facing international scrutiny. Though the international community knows about him, it also worries that, if he leaves and the current Hezbollah-dominated government names a replacement, the situation will be much worse. Hence, Salameh was no longer of any use to the current political class. His time was up, he had to leave the stage.

The drama staged by the corrupt elite dictated that a warrant was issued, but at the same time Salameh was able to escape the country.

Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib

The exit of Salameh shows how every single member of the system has a role to play and the different characters take turns like in a play at the theater. The drama staged by the corrupt elite dictated that a warrant was issued, but at the same time Salameh was able to escape the country. State security officials were reportedly confrontedby Salameh’s Internal Security Forces teamand he was driven to the airport under their protection. The question is who comes next? They will find another puppet who will do whatever they ask of him and take what is left in the central bank to prop up the corrupt elite for a little bit longer.

There is now speculation that the corrupt elite — since it has already squandered the Lebanese depositors’ money — will resort to selling the gold that is the last defense of the national currency. The gold, which the late central bank governor-turned-president Elias Sarkiscollected ounce after ounce to protect the Lebanese pound and economy, risks being sold in order to keep the current system afloat. The gold is the last resort of the corrupt elite: They cannot borrow any more from the people and the international community will not give them any aid without reforms. What is really shocking is the Lebanese people’s ability to tolerate a corrupt political class that has stripped them of everything.

  • Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.
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