Thursday, April 07, 2022

Ukrainian expert: Hundreds of Russian troops received lethal dose of radiation in Chernobyl

Ukraine’s Vice Minister for Protection of the Environment and Natural Resources, Ruslan Strelets, said hundreds of Russian troops were subjected to high levels of radiation after withdrawing from Ukraine’s Chernobyl exclusion zone.

During a TV news marathon, Strelets said his agency has uncovered hundreds of bunkers and dugouts in the exclusion zone, including in the infamous Red Forest, which is among the most contaminated area around Chernobyl and gets its name from the pine trees in the forest which turned red due to high levels of radiation.

“Our specialists say that if one spends 48 hours in the Red Forest he will receive a radiation dose similar to a radiation one receives over the course of year. That is, factually anyone who was stationed there– they are the walking dead, they are people who have no chances of a future life,” Strelets exclaimed.

The Russian forces stationed around Chernobyl are believed to have been there from February 25th through March 31st, far longer than the recommended time frame.

Reports surfaced in late March claiming that Russian forces in the Red Forest area eschewed radiation protection and kicked up clouds of radioactive dust by driving armored vehicles through the area. One Chernobyl employee told Reuters that such actions were “suicidal” for Russian soldiers.

Valery Seida, acting general director of the Chernobyl plant, said of the Red Forest, "Nobody goes there ... for God's sake. There is no one there… They [Russian soldiers] drove wherever they needed to.” Seida said Russian soldiers had been warned above the radiation levels but that there is no evidence to suggest that they heeded such warnings.

The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense released drone footage on Wednesday showing what appeared to be trenches dug by Russian soldiers in the exclusion zone.

Hundreds of Russian soldiers were reportedly taken to a medical facility in the Belarusian city of Gomel to be treated for radiation poisoning, according to an employee at the Public Council at the State Agency of Ukraine for Exclusion Zone Management.


Captured Technologies and Radiation Victims: What Does Russia Leave in Chernobyl?




Ekaterina Maksimova
April 3, 2022

The Russian military gained access to unique materials, databases and equipment after the seizure of Ukrainian nuclear facilities and scientific laboratories. This was told to The Insider by Ukrainian nuclear scientists. The troops took control of the Zaporozhye and Chernobyl nuclear power plants, as well as their satellite cities: Enerhodar and Slavutych. In Chernobyl itself, it was reported about the looting of the "Ecocenter" - an enterprise engaged in radiation and environmental control in the exclusion zone. Equipment worth more than 6 million euros was supplied there by the European Union and Japan in the framework of joint projects with Kiev. It could be of the greatest interest to the Russian military.

On March 31, Russia withdrew its troops from the territory of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, which was captured on the first day of the war. This was told in "Energoatom" - the operator of all nuclear power plants in Ukraine. After a 36-day occupation, Russian troops moved towards Belarus. By Thursday evening, "not a single outsider remained on the territory of the Chernobyl NPP."

The invaders took with them the Ukrainian National Guardsmen, who had been held captive since February 24. And before leaving, the Employees of the Chernobyl NPP were forced to sign a document on the absence of claims to the Russian side - the so-called "Act of Reception and Transfer of Protection of the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant".


This document was forced by the Russian military under pressure to sign the employees of the Chernobyl NPP

Photo: Facebook / State Agency of Ukraine for the Management of the Exclusion Zone


"These 'official' documents were signed by the station's staff under pressure to complete the process. The withdrawal of troops was accompanied by the looting of premises, as well as the theft of equipment and other valuable things," the State Agency of Ukraine for the Management of the Exclusion Zone reported.

Robbery of know-how of foreign companies

The fact that the main interest of the Russian military could be unique equipment, The Insider told An independent expert in the field of nuclear energy Olga Kosharnaya, in the past - a member of the Board of the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine.

On March 26, the Russian military took control of the town of Slavutych, located about 50 km from Chernobyl. Many employees of the station live there. There are several enterprises of interest to Russia in the city, the expert noted. The main one is Atomremontservice, which is a division of the operator of all nuclear power plants in Ukraine. The structure is engaged in the organization of repairs at the nuclear power plant. It uses equipment to restore equipment that does not exist in Russia and the countries of the former socialist camp.

"There is a special stand of the American company Westinghouse Electric to control the geometry of the dismantling of damaged fuel elements (fuel elements) and cassettes of nuclear fuel of this manufacturer," Kosharnaya said. "The use of the stand makes it possible to identify and remove leaky elements and repair them, after which the assembly can again be operated in the reactor core before the deadline."


Westinghouse Electric fuel assembly. Photo: energyland.info


Every year, due to the depressurization of fuel elements, fuel assemblies (FUEL) fail, in Russia in this case they are prematurely unloaded from the reactors and disposed of. And the use of special equipment allows you to extend their service life, which means that you can significantly save money, as well as increase radiation safety.

It became known that during the retreat of the Russian military, at least five containers with equipment that is used in the repair of equipment disappeared. Also in the city there are unique training facilities for personnel training, devices for welding, commissioning, equipment for turbines, pumps, ventilation mechanisms, heat exchange equipment for fittings. "There is a suspicion that this will end with the robbery of the know-how of foreign companies, their intellectual property," Olga Kosharnaya noted.

What happened at Ecocenter?


The Russian military also looted the Ecocenter in Chernobyl, a unique enterprise that carried out the largest volume of radioecological research in Ukraine and accumulated a huge database. It appeared in 1986 after the accident at the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, when work began to eliminate the consequences of the disaster. Now "Ecocenter" belongs to the State Agency for the Management of the Exclusion Zone, which announced the seizure and looting of the enterprise on March 23.


View of the "Ecocenter". Photo by Facebook / Denis Vishnevsky


The key object of ecocenter is the Central Analytical Laboratory. The interlocutors of The Insider agree that, judging by the picture, the Russian military ruled here. Servers and hard drives have been ripped from computers. Olga Kosharnaya, an independent expert on nuclear energy, believes that the unique database on radiology and dosimetry, which have been collected here since the Chernobyl accident, is of particular value to Russia. All this volume of observations can now be destroyed.

Of particular value to Russia is the unique database on radiology and dosimetry collected since the Chernobyl accident: now it can be destroyed


"During the year, the laboratory collected about 5 thousand samples on a rigid system - air, water, soil, hydrobionts and much more. All this in the laboratory turned into 12 thousand results that showed the content of the main radionuclides (cesium, strontium and transuranic elements) in the selected samples. A key element in this process was the laboratory. Radiochemistry and spectrometry are very expensive and complex. Expensive equipment and consumables, expensive personnel who need to be prepared for this work for a long time, "writes Denis Vishnevsky, head of the scientific department of the Chernobyl Radiation and Ecological Biosphere Reserve.

Footage of the looted laboratory was also shown by the Russian media. They accused the Ukrainian side of "staging with the aim of discrediting the Russian military in the eyes of the public." In a story on Russia's state television channel Zvezda, one of the servicemen called the presence of radioactive samples in the laboratory a "crime," although the storage of samples is usually provided for in radioecological laboratories in Russia, Ukraine and other countries. Professor of the Institute of Radioecology of the University of Fukushima (Japan) Mark Zheleznyak told The Insider - the samples appeared in the course of research in the framework of the Japanese-Ukrainian project, in which he took part.

"There are a lot of dirty places in the zone. According to the rules, the samples were stored in special cabinets in the premises of the Ecocenter. We collected a lot of samples. After the study, the sample is still stored for further study, perhaps already other indicators. Each such laboratory has premises for the storage of samples, for that it is a laboratory. All sorts of IAEA commissions came there a hundred times, which checked this, and everything was in perfect order there, "said Professor Zheleznyak.



The laboratory of the "Ecocenter" before the invasion of the Russian military. 
Photo: Facebook / Denis Vishnevsky

Radioactive isotopes, which are used to calibrate instruments, have disappeared from the laboratory of the Institute for Safety Problems of Nuclear Power Plants. It is also located in Chernobyl. In addition, samples of radioactive waste have also disappeared, including those remaining after the meltdown of the reactor contents of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, the head of the Institute, Anatoly Nosovsky, notes in an interview with science magazine. He fears that these highly radioactive substances can be used for provocations with a "dirty bomb". This does not exclude Mark Zheleznyak. It is enough to add to the explosives the radioactive contents of the 4th power unit, taken from under the sarcophagus. You can put this into action anywhere.

"In the wagon of the Russian army"


Speaking about the Russian military, experts note their unpreparedness for being in a polluted territory. The entire zone is a huge burial ground for radioactive waste. Right in the contaminated areas in the immediate vicinity of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, the Russians deployed a command post and placed military equipment. Including old or unusable. According to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the 165th artillery brigade from the Amur Region operated in Chernobyl. She received permission to use the equipment in a substandard condition. This increased the risk of detonation of ammunition during loading and unloading.

And according to Olga Kosharnaya, Russian soldiers were not provided even with individual dosimeters. Radioactive contamination is spotty, that is, at one point there may be a low dose rate, and in a few meters - tens of times higher. Moving in such conditions without a radiometer is extremely dangerous. You can easily get not only a high dose of radiation, but also inhale alpha-active particles, which, apparently, happened in the Red Forest, adjacent to the Chernobyl NPP.




Gamma radiation dose rate in the Red Forest area. The maximum level in the photo is 102 μSv / h with a norm of not more than 0.2 μSv / h. 2019. Heat map made with Atom Fast 8816 scintillation dosimeter

"Without dosimetric reconnaissance with their radiochemical defense troops, they began to dig trenches in the most polluted place of the zone – the Red Forest. There was a deposition of long-lived isotopes: plutonium, uranium, americium, which emit alpha radiation. When alpha particles enter the body, damage to the kidneys, lungs and other organs begins, very quickly this can lead to cancer, "the expert believes.

On March 30, Yaroslav Emelianenko, a member of the Public Council under the State Agency of Ukraine for the Management of the Exclusion Zone, reported that several Russian servicemen had been brought from Chernobyl to the Belarusian Center for Radiation Medicine in Gomel. It was reported that these soldiers received radiation. The data was confirmed by the State Agency of Ukraine for the Management of the Exclusion Zone, but the exact number of injured soldiers was not specified, and nothing is known about their condition. The Russian Defense Ministry did not comment on the data. The IAEA said it could not confirm the information and was waiting for additional data.

Why did the military eventually leave Chernobyl?

 In addition to the interest in equipment and data, the exclusion zone could be of interest to Russian troops as a springboard for a rapid offensive on Kiev, some experts say. In principle, a nuclear power plant is an ideal test site for the deployment of military equipment, since the enemy is highly likely not to conduct combat operations at a nuclear facility. Therefore, it was very easy to gain a foothold there, although unsafe in terms of radiation exposure - but the question of the well-being of soldiers, apparently, worries the Russian military leadership in the last place. From this point of view, it becomes clear that they decided to withdraw troops from Chernobyl against the background of abandoning plans to take Kiev. At the same time, the Russian military is not going to leave the territory of the ZNPP yet.

Restoring sensor operation

After the departure of Russian troops, Ukrainian specialists will first of all have to establish the operation of sensor systems that were turned off by the invaders. In particular, the Automatic Radiation Monitoring System (ASCRO). This is a system of dosimeters in the Chernobyl exclusion zone, which in real time on the site show the level of dose rate of gamma radiation at different points of the zone.

Disabling the sensors created a dangerous situation. Fighting in the ChZO provoked forest fires in radiation-contaminated places. More than 10 hectares of forest were burning, Ukrainian ombudsman Lyudmila Denisova reported. This could be fraught with an increase in radiation levels, but without ASCRO it would not have been possible to find out about it.

Professor of the Institute of Environmental Radiology of the University of Fukushima Mark Zheleznyak told The Insider that specialists had to focus on the indicators of devices located at a distance of 100 km and further from the Chernobyl exclusion zone. These data showed only a rough picture.



EP Report Launch: Western Foreign Fighters and the Yazidi Genocide 

On March 16, 2021, CEP hosted a launch event for the new report, "Western Foreign Fighters and the Yazidi Genocide".

As Western states face an ongoing dilemma over the fate of their stranded and captured “foreign fighters”, award-winning historian and author, Tom Holland, and President of YAZDA, Haider Elias, joined CEP to discuss the role of foreign fighters in the Yazidi genocide and the search for justice.

In August 2014, ISIS launched an assault on Sinjar, home to Iraq’s vulnerable Yazidi religious minority. More than 3,000 Yazidis are thought to have been killed in the initial assault, many in mass executions, with almost 7,000 Yazidi women and children kidnapped and enslaved throughout ISIS’s so-called caliphate.

So far, justice for these crimes has not been delivered. This discussion aims to highlight Yazidi survivors’ ongoing fight for justice and the underexplored role of Westerners in the atrocities.

Speakers:
-Tom Holland, award-winning historian, author, and broadcaster
-Haider Elias, president, YAZDA, the leading Yazidi human rights NGO
-Liam Duffy, London-based CEP strategic advisor, author of CEP’s latest report: Western Foreign Fighters and the Yazidi Genocide

Moderated by:
-Lucinda Creighton, CEP senior advisor in Europe, former Irish Minister of State for European Affairs

Download the report here: https://bit.ly/3rTc4oH

College Grads Got Lion’s Share of Pandemic Wealth Gains in U.S.

BC-College-Grads-Got-Lion’s-Share-of-Pandemic-Wealth-Gains-in-US

(Bloomberg) -- The extra wealth created in the U.S. during the pandemic flowed overwhelmingly to households headed by a college graduate, according to the latest data from the Federal Reserve. 

Those households have seen their net worth surge by $23.4 trillion since the end of 2019, Fed data show. That’s almost three times as much as the wealth accumulated by households headed by someone without a college degree -- which make up a majority of the country’s population. 

Wealth gaps linked to education levels have become increasingly prominent in the U.S. as the labor market skewed toward higher-skilled work, exacerbating political divisions and complicating policy debates. 

The share of adult Americans with a bachelor’s degree or higher has risen sharply in the past few decades. Still, only 38% of all households are headed by someone who completed a college degree. They held a total of $101 trillion in wealth at the end of 2021, compared with $41 trillion for the larger non-college segment.  

As of the end of 2021, 9.6% of U.S. households were headed by someone lacking a high-school degree -- and those households saw their share of the national wealth shrink to a record low of 1.5%, down from about 10% in the late 1980s. 

The initial impact of the pandemic on labor markets tended to reinforce such trends. Over the last two years, payrolls in professional and business services, for example, have increased by more than 800,000 and in finance by 60,000. Meanwhile there are 736,000 fewer jobs in leisure and hospitality. 

The latest employment report, though, suggests that less-educated and lower-income workers are seeing faster wage gains in a tight labor market. In leisure and hospitality, pay was up by 11.8% on average in March, compared with a year earlier. 

 

 

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

Gaming’s ‘Das Kapitalist’ Sees A Lot of Hype in NFTs, DAOs, And the Metaverse

(Bloomberg Markets) -- Sam Peurifoy sits at the forefront of financial innovation, but he doesn’t move around a lot. The chemistry Ph.D. and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. alum, who turns 28 in May, spends most of his days at his computer in an apartment in Manhattan’s Financial District. He’s the chief executive officer of Playground Labs, a company that blends video gaming and cryptocurrency, and the head of inter­active for Hivemind Capital Partners, a $1.5 billion venture firm focused on crypto investments, where he leads a strategy called play-to-earn.

Peurifoy spoke with Bloomberg Markets in early March about how skeptical he is of Big Tech’s definition of the metaverse, the nonfungible token fad, and some of the groups that call themselves decentralized autonomous organizations. While he remains on guard against crypto poseurs, he does believe crypto could help reshape the world—from Russia to gaming to payday. Peurifoy, who’s known in gaming circles as “Das Kapitalist,” says he eats the same meal every day and is lucky if he plays a few hours on the weekends these days. The interview has been condensed and edited for clarity.

BLOOMBERG MARKETS: Your wife’s family is Russian. Do you see Russia’s invasion of Ukraine changing crypto?

SAM PEURIFOY: It’s going to boil down to two competing forces. Are government bodies evading sanctions using these tokens? The other force is: With a local currency that’s being devalued by the hour, almost, at what point do citizens turn to more stable digital currencies? Citizens using a more stable currency is obviously a plus, but sanctioned countries evading sanctions is obviously a minus. It’s a very difficult line to tread. Maybe we run know-your-customer on every single person who installs a crypto wallet.

BM: You left Goldman Sachs last year. When do you think bankers will warm up to crypto?

SP: When the market was superfrothy, I was having financial professionals reach out to me on a daily basis asking me how to get into crypto. And these were not people from low-ranking firms, either. They were very serious financial professionals, with genuine interest from across the board. Perhaps they feel like they’re not making enough in their current position, but I actually think that’s not really what’s going on. I think they’re genuinely just bored.

BM: Do you see a pattern among these financial professionals in terms of work history or demographics?

SP: You have managing directors to portfolio managers, vice presidents, analysts, equity analysts, investment bankers. It’s everything.

BM: What does Hivemind do?

SP: We provide capital and specific blockchain expertise to projects building in the crypto space. We aspire to being the Blackstone of crypto.

BM: How many people are there?

SP: We aim to have more than 30 employees by the end of the year. We’ve just ramped up hiring extremely substantially.

BM: What do your returns look like?

SP: The recent market downturn provided a large number of excellent buying opportunities for coins and companies. I don’t think I can give you anything more specific than that.

BM: The idea of Playground Labs, and your “Das Kapitalist” gaming identity, is that you seed other players with money. How?

SP: If they have joined with the intention of trying to play these play-to-earn games, then what happens next—assuming there’s no waitlist, because there’s usually a gigantic list of people trying to play these things—we basically issue them assets, they play the assets, and if they do a good job they can continue playing the assets and keep half of what they make. There’s no risk to the player, no capital responsibility on the player at all. There’s only upside. It’s constrained by how much cash we can deploy into it, which is partially determined by private investors and partially by the earnings of the ecosystem itself.

BM: How many hours of video games are you playing these days?

SP: I need to be playing more, because I need to go interact with my community more. If I do two to four hours generally on the weekend, I’m doing a good job.

BM: Do you network through video games?

SP: You’re playing World of Warcraft, you engage in a certain activity with other people, you realize you’ve enjoyed playing with them, probably because they’ve done a good job, you message them, you talk about the game, you talk about life, you get to be friends, you start calling, and now they’re in your Discord. And that’s the cycle of life right there.

BM : The crypto industry has been dominated by men. Is that changing?

SP : It begs the question, OK, if it’s so fair and open, why is it not more diverse? And ultimately it hasn’t reached an education ­threshold whereby most of the world could really see and know what to engage with next. We’re getting there. You’re seeing ­builders come online from all different parts of the world, but it’s not this tsunami.

BM : Besides inclusion, what are your biggest worries about the industry?

SP : I don’t think you can talk about crypto right now without bringing up NFTs, which are the elephant in the room. It is undeniable that NFTs have caused a lot of commotion. There have been a ton of scams. People poorly understand the technology. People are throwing money and FOMO-ing into things that they don’t understand. They think all pictures of monkeys are going to go to the moon. It’s not a good situation. It’s a mess.

BM: What are the use cases that excite you the most?

SP: You can reduce the friction on micropayments down to such a low amount that you can imagine streaming Netflix in real time and paying for each individual megabyte of data. That’s the level of granularity. Instead of waiting two weeks for my paycheck, maybe my salary is streamed to me in real time, and then I can immediately go down and buy a coffee.

BM: Where do you see decentralized autonomous organizations going as organization structures and fundraising mechanisms?

SP: A lot of people are coming out with DAOs that are not DAOs. There is a difference between governing a community using smart contracts vs. governing a community by using what basically is a Facebook poll. Unfortunately, the end user cannot read the smart contract and cannot vet the tokens. The issue is, people are basically being told they have control over some organization when, in truth, they don’t.

BM: Are there real use cases with wide appeal for the metaverse, in the current iteration of the internet or the decentralized version called web3?

SP: A lot of people sitting on both sides of the fence, web2 and web3, have completely different conceptions of what the metaverse will look like. The web3 side, the crypto builders, they see a metaverse as an area where economics and utility are fairly distributed among the users and the platforms are ultimately owned by the users. In web2, the core thesis is virtual reality is the metaverse. And it’s not! Virtual reality has been around for a long time. It’s not a huge game changer.

BM: You mentioned that you were recently diagnosed with Covid again and that you only went out twice during the pandemic and got sick both times. Is that true?

SP: I really don’t go outside very much. That’s not a joke. Two times is probably a little bit of an exaggeration, but I really don’t leave this desk. That’s partially because I enjoy it—I love being here. I’m attached to this screen for 16 to 18 hours a day. I do my one hour of exercise each day, and that’s it.

BM: How often do you sleep?

SP: I sleep at exactly 10:30 p.m. every single night, I wake up somewhere between 4:30 and 5:30 in the morning, and then I do take a 15-minute nap at almost exactly 12:30 almost every single day.

BM: You seem very disciplined.

SP: I eat here. I really like these chicken cordon bleus, that’s usually what I eat. I eat two chicken cordon bleus a day. They’re really good. It’s like two little logs. Don’t worry, I’m having tons of fun.

Yang covers crypto market structure and Abelson covers finance for Bloomberg News in New York.

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

OPINION

Deepening Stagflation: Out of the Frying Pan into the Fire

SYDNEY and KUALA LUMPUR, Apr 5 2022 (IPS) - The world is sailing into a perfect storm as key leaders seem intent on threatening more war, albeit while proclaiming the noblest of intentions. By doing so, they block international cooperation to create conditions for sustainable peace and shared prosperity for all.

Anis Chowdhury

Monetarist counter-revolution
The 1970s saw Milton Friedman disciples’ monetarist counter revolution blaming stagflation on ostensibly Keynesian economic policies. In 1974, Nixon replacement President Gerald Ford declared inflation “public enemy number one” and US “determination to whip inflation”.

Monetarists wanted tighter monetary policies to fight inflation. Curbing rising prices was deemed urgent, even though it would increase joblessness. They advocated abandoning expansionary fiscal measures for more growth and jobs.

But US Federal Reserve Bank chair Arthur Burns still considered ensuring full employment his top priority. For Burns, addressing inflation ‘head-on’ – as urged by his detractors – was too costly for the economy and people’s wellbeing.

Nevertheless, the monetarist ascendance was confirmed when the 1946 Employment Act was replaced. The successor 1978 Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act is better known as the Humphrey-Hawkins Act for its sponsors, including the Democrats’ 1968 presidential nominee.

In early 1980, Burns’ Fed chair successor, Paul Volcker insisted, “[M]y basic philosophy is over time we have no choice but to deal with the inflationary situation because over time inflation and the unemployment rate go together.… Isn’t that the lesson of the 1970s?”

Jomo Kwame Sundaram

Thus, ‘fight inflation first’ became the clarion call in 1980. This was the pretext for sharply raising US interest rates, while claiming that reducing inflation would somehow eventually create many more jobs. The UK and many other industrial countries followed, deepening recessions and raising unemployment.

By post-1950s’ Western standards, the 1980s saw very high unemployment. Unemployment in rich developed OECD countries averaged 7.3% during 1980-89, compared to just under 5% during 1974-79, and under 3% during the 1960s.

Debt crises, lost decades
The sharp US interest rate spike triggered debt crises in Poland, Latin America and elsewhere in the early 1980s. Earlier, US commercial banks had enjoyed windfall gains following the two oil price spikes in the 1970s.

The US government had long provided concessional low interest rate loans to allies to secure support during the Cold War. Flush with deposits from Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) members in the 1970s, they pushed loans to borrowing governments, many in Latin America.

With the interest rate spikes, borrowing countries suddenly faced liquidity crises, also creating systemic risks for their US and UK bankers. Successive US Treasury Secretaries, James Baker and Nicholas Brady, came up with various debt restructuring schemes to contain the problem, with the latter adopted.

Meanwhile, International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank financial support was tied to short-term stabilization programmes and medium-term liberalizing reforms, packaged as structural adjustment programmes (SAPs) with explicit policy conditionalities.

The liquidity crises were due to the sudden sharp interest rate increases. But instead, these were portrayed as solvency crises stemming from weak ‘economic fundamentals’, blamed on ‘over regulation’ and protectionism.

Although African countries were generally not able to borrow as much, they too faced problems as commodity prices collapsed with the growth slowdowns. Many were forced to seek financial support from the IMF and World Bank, and thus obliged to implement SAPs as well.

The liberalizing and deregulating SAP reforms were supposed to usher in rapid growth. Instead, however, both Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa experienced “lost decades of development”.

Stagflation in Europe
Stagflation in our times is expected to be initially most severe in Europe. This has been caricatured as fighting for Ukraine until ‘the last European’ as it bears the brunt of NATO imposed sanctions on Russia. Besides oil and gas, they will pay more for imported wheat, fertilizers and other Russian exports.

But other economic trends will likely make things worse. First, some rich economies – particularly the UK and the US – are weaker now, having lost much of their manufacturing edge. Others have been experiencing declines in productivity growth since the mid-1970s.

Second, low wages – due to labour market deregulation and ‘off-shoring’, i.e., relocating production abroad – have meant less productive activities have survived. Very low interest rates – due to ‘unconventional’ monetary policies since the 2008-09 global financial crisis – have allowed unviable ‘zombie’ enterprises to stay alive.

Third, the declining labour income share has increased income inequalities, lowering aggregate demand. But demand has been sustained by rising household debt. Low, if not negative real interest rates have also encouraged more corporate debt, but with less used for productive new investments.

Fourth, the pandemic has raised all types of debt – household, corporate and government – to record levels. Fifth, countries, especially smaller ones, are now far more internationally integrated – via trade and finance – than in the 1970s.

Therefore, small interest rate increases can have devastatingly large impacts on household, corporate and government finances. Advanced countries are thus likely to see severe economic contractions and rising unemployment.

Meanwhile, more racism and intolerance in recent decades show little sign of receding. Worse, these are likely to worsen as political elites compete in the ethno-populist league to blame Others for their problems. The recent European decision to privilege Ukrainian refugees is a poignant reminder of what is in store.

But impacts on developing countries are likely to be far worse due to capital outflows, declining development finance and aid, as well as slowing world trade after decades of globalization. Increasing inequality since the 1980s and declining growth since 2014 – now worsened by the pandemic – will not help.

Thus, instead of striving to ensure sustainable peace, necessary to improve conditions for all, the world seems set for sustained conflict. This has involved easy resort to sanctions, namely war by economic siege, hurting all. We all thus risk the prospect of mutual destruction instead of shared prosperity for all.

IPS UN Bureau

Biggest Arab Economies Escape Stagflation Despite Price Shocks


Residential and commercial buildings in Dubai. Photographer: Christopher Pike/Bloomberg

(Bloomberg) -- The two largest Arab economies are powering ahead despite coming under pressure from a sharp acceleration in global energy and commodity prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Concern is building worldwide that the crisis in eastern Europe will result in stagflation, or rapidly rising prices and weak economic growth. But for now, non-oil output gains were intact in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, according to March surveys of purchasing managers by S&P Global that offered a first glimpse at the conflict’s spillover effects in the region.

A Purchasing Managers’ Index compiled for Saudi Arabia rose to 56.8 from 56.2 in February, with output growing at the fastest in over four years. A similar gauge for the neighboring UAE remained at 54.8, well above the 50 mark that separates expansion from contraction, even as input cost inflation reached a 40-month record.  

“Cost pressures escalated during March as commodity prices turned volatile in response to the Russia-Ukraine war,” said David Owen, economist at S&P Global. “Rising petrol and raw material prices greatly added to firms’ expenses sheets.”

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has sent already high crude prices soaring and affected global exports of grains, of which the Middle East region is a major importer. 

In Saudi Arabia, higher energy and material prices translated into the sharpest uplift in both costs and selling charges since August 2020. Input prices accelerated at the fastest in just over a year and a half.

Other highlights from the PMI reports:

  • Saudi Arabia saw its first drop in employment in a year after a slight drop in backlogs
  • Saudi companies were overall upbeat about future activity, but sentiment remained weak compared with the historical trend
  • The pace of job creation in the UAE was “only marginal” as some firms tried to cut employee costs
  • UAE companies were confident activity would rise over the coming year, citing improvements in overall economic conditions

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

Myanmar Financial Holdings and U.S.-Singapore Contention

Given its financial ties to Myanmar, Singapore’s cooperation is vital if the world is to choke off the military junta’s revenue streams.


By Drake Tien
April 05, 2022

A view of Singapore’s financial district by night.
Credit: Flickr/Andrew

On February 3, U.S. Department of State Counselor Derek Chollet spoke at a virtual event hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Southeast Asia Program to mark one year since the military coup in Myanmar. During the event, Chollet announced that the United States had sanctioned 65 individuals and 26 businesses with “close regime ties” to the military junta.

The same day, the Straits Times – Singapore’s most-read newspaper – printed an op-ed written by Chollet in which he spoke of Washington’s commitment to “ratcheting up pressure on the regime through targeted sanctions and by limiting the regime’s access to arms.” Although the article does not explicitly reference Singapore, its placement in the Straits Times was a clear message to Singapore’s foreign policy establishment.

This is not the first time Chollet has requested that the Singaporean government help restrict the Myanmar junta’s access to foreign funds. Last October, Chollet, along with senior officials from the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development, met with Singaporean counterparts to stress the critical role Singapore’s “significant financial leverage” could play in pressuring the junta to make “better decisions on behalf of the Burmese people.”

Since the military, or Tatmadaw, launched a coup against the democratically elected government of Myanmar on February 1, 2021, there has been bipartisan support from Congress and the Biden administration to cut off remaining revenue streams, financial flows, and other assets to the Tatmadaw, in addition to enforcing sanctions. This included freezing nearly $1 billion in Myanmar government funds held in the United States and targeting holding companies linked to coup leader Min Aung Hlaing and other top generals. However, the military still has access to funds in other countries, most notably in Singapore.

Singapore became a financial hub for the Asia-Pacific by providing security and anonymity to clients. Under section 47 of Singapore’s Banking Act, banks and wealth management funds located in Singapore cannot disclose their clients’ personal information without their express consent. Like Switzerland, the opacity of its banking institutions makes Singapore an attractive investment destination for those seeking to avoid scrutiny.

Over the past decade, Singapore and Myanmar’s economic ties have flourished. In 2019, Singapore surpassed China as Myanmar’s biggest investor, bringing in an estimated $24 billion of capital through real estate, banking, shipping, and construction. Firms located in Myanmar often have offices in Singapore and will place their financial holdings in Singaporean banks, including companies with direct ties to the Tatmadaw. Owners of these companies include the son of air force chief Maung Maung Kyaw – a key member of the junta – and U Tun Hlaing, whose firm STE Global Trading was linked by a U.N. Panel of Experts to weapons procurement between Myanmar and North Korea. These companies give Singapore more influence in Myanmar than most of its ASEAN neighbors. The degree of cooperation from the Singaporean banking system will have a considerable impact on the effectiveness of international sanctions on the Myanmar junta.

In previous statements, the Monetary Authority of Singapore has told financial firms to be “vigilant to any suspicious transactions… between the city-state and Myanmar.” But the authority has also said it has not found “significant funds from Myanmar companies and individuals in banks in Singapore.” The Singaporean Stock Exchange, meanwhile, opened investigations into listed firms with close ties to the Tatmadaw. And Singaporean business leaders such as Razer co-founder Lim Kaling have pulled out of investments in Myanmar. But firms with links to the junta, including some which procured arms for the Tatmadaw in the years before the coup, continue to operate in Singapore.

While the U.S. government is likely to continue pressing the city-state to embrace international sanctions on Myanmar, Singapore will remain cautious, preferring that sanctions come either from the United Nations or through consensus within ASEAN. But Singapore’s attempt to balance calls for further pressure on the Tatmadaw with engagement in the name of ASEAN’s efforts to mediate the conflict will become more tenuous as the junta refuses to change course.

This article was originally published on New Perspectives on Asia from the Center for Strategic and International Studies 
U.S. Approves Sale Of Fighter Jets To Bulgaria Amid Speculation About Supply Of MiGs To Ukraine

A U.S. Boeing B-52 bomber (top) flies with a Ukrainian
 MiG-29 over Ukraine in August 2020.

The U.S. State Department has approved the potential sale of up to eight F-16 fighter jets to Bulgaria, the Defense Department has said.

"The proposed sale will improve Bulgaria's capability to meet current and future threats by enabling the Bulgarian Air Force to deploy modern fighter aircraft routinely in the Black Sea region," the Defense Security Cooperation Agency said.

U.S. officials said the $1.673 billion agreement was not directly related to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which comes amid continuing speculation that a NATO ally could provide Ukraine with Russian-made MiG-29 aircraft to fight Russian forces and that such a move would involve the United States "backfilling" that ally's fleet of jets with U.S. aircraft in exchange.

Bulgaria is one of the three NATO members that have MIG-29s, which Ukrainian pilots are capable of flying. The others are Poland and Slovakia.

Pentagon spokesman John Kirby, asked about the F-16 sale, downplayed the suggestion it could be tied to Bulgaria providing MIG-29s to Ukraine. Kirby said he would not characterize the sale as "backfilling" but did not provide further details.

Bulgarian Prime Minister Kiril Petkov said last month there was no deal to provide MIG-29s to Ukraine.

Even though Bulgaria is close to the conflict, Petkov said, "Currently we will not be able to send military assistance to Ukraine." He added that any such assistance would have to be approved by the Bulgarian parliament.

The United States announced during U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austins visit to Sofia on March 19 that Washington would deploy a Stryker armored-vehicle infantry company for a NATO battle group being established in Bulgaria.

Best Children’s Music Album: These songs won Indian American Falguni Shah aka Falu her first Grammy

Falguni Shah won for her album ‘A Colorful World’.

               
S'pore must not shy away from dealing with daily battles that women face: Josephine Teo

Society must always see the progress of women as a journey 
without end, said Mrs Josephine Teo. 
PHOTO: GOV.SG


Goh Yan Han
Political Correspondent

PUBLISHED
APR 5, 2022

SINGAPORE - To help women advance, Singapore must not shy away from dealing with various daily challenges that they face, Minister for Communications and Information Josephine Teo told Parliament on Tuesday (April 5).

Women face daily battles, she said, such as the battle with time to fulfil multiple roles and responsibilities.

They battle for recognition of the challenges women and girls face, much more than men and boys, she added.

They also "battle with sexual predators who, having been tamed in analogue Singapore, now rear their ugly heads in our digital world", and "battle with social expectations on what work we do, what chores we share, what words we say, and even what clothes we wear".

Lastly, women also "battle within ourselves as to how much of 'us' to give and how much to save for self-care", said Mrs Teo.

She was speaking at the start of the debate on the White Paper on Singapore Women's Development, which was presented to Parliament on March 28.

The document is a 10-year road map to nudge society further towards gender equality that will see greater support for flexible work arrangements, more help for caregivers and swifter intervention in cases of violence.

Mrs Teo said society must always see the progress of women as a journey without end, where every achievement is a foundation to aim for new highs.

"In every generation, we have a duty to find new ways to uplift women. If half of humanity does not progress, how can the rest of humanity?" she said.

The weight of efforts to do so should now lie in further catalysing collective actions, and further promoting equal partnership between women and men, said Mrs Teo.

"In all likelihood, these two lines of effort are the most challenging. Yet they are also where we have the best hope to really move the needle for women."

In her speech at the start of the debate, she acknowledged the significant progress that Singapore women have already made, such as in education and in the workforce.

Women are also now better protected against harms and sexual offences, through the Protection from Harassment Act and Penal Code, and are better recognised for their contributions in the economy, with a narrowing adjusted gender pay gap


Caregivers of the elderly and children, the majority of whom are women, are now better supported with available facilities and subsidies, said Mrs Teo.

The White Paper is meant to be a clarion call for everyone to take action, she added, rather than just a comprehensive plan of action by the Government.

She said: "We can put in place legislation on workplace fairness. But the lived experiences of working women depend on the understanding and support of employers and colleagues.

"While many Singapore women are empowered by caregiver support, some will continue to be constrained by cultural preferences held by society and even themselves."

Speaking after Mrs Teo, Minister for Social and Family Development Masagos Zulkifli appealed to men to step up and do more to make a difference.

He said: "As fathers, it is our responsibility to teach our sons what it means to respect all women, starting from a young age. Instil in them the right values and be role models ourselves through our actions, for them to grow to be gentlemen."

Men can also play a bigger role in sharing the weight of caregiving, he added.

Mr Masagos said that pushing for equal partnership between men and women is not a zero-sum game.

"From time to time, such beliefs or misperceptions come up. These perceptions come up whenever we talk about advancing women's progress. This is not our way. Our approach is not about asserting the rights of one over another," he said.

He added: "Respecting our fellow women is a natural evolution from our values, because we have been nurtured to honour, love and respect the most important woman of our lives - our mothers."

Mr Masagos also announced that Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong will be launching a travelling exhibition on April 22, titled Celebrating Singapore Women.

The exhibition aims to build awareness and ownership of the action plans from the White Paper among all Singaporeans.

Closing out the debate after 40 MPs had spoken, Mrs Teo said the session had highlighted the core values of equality, partnership and mutual respect that must endure with every step Singapore takes in advancing women’s interest.

“It is now up to us to put our values once again into action,” she said.

She added that at its core, respect means that women should not be exploited, sidelined or stereotyped. Rather, women deserve to be recognised for their contributions, empowered to succeed and respected as equal partners in society.

“More than anything else, this White Paper is about honouring Singapore women, recognising their place in society, and committing to achieve further progress for women,” she said.