Sunday, April 10, 2022

Help Wanted: Adjunct Professor, Must Have Doctorate. Salary: $0.

Anemona Hartocollis
Sat, April 9, 2022, 

Liza Loza, a graduate student at Washington University in St. Louis, Mo., taught a discussion section for which she was not paid. (Neeta Satam/The New York Times)

The job posting for an assistant adjunct professor at the University of California, Los Angeles, set high expectations for candidates: A Ph.D. in chemistry or biochemistry, a strong teaching record at the college level, and three to five letters of recommendation.

But there was a catch: The job would be on a “without salary basis,” as the posting phrased it. Just to be clear, it hammered home the point: “Applicants must understand there will be no compensation for this position.”

The posting last month caused an immediate uproar among academics across the country, who accused the university of exploiting already undervalued adjunct professors, and suggested this would never happen in other occupations. Under pressure, UCLA apologized and withdrew the posting.

But the unspoken secret had been fleetingly exposed: Free labor is a fact of academic life.


“These arrangements are common in academia,” Bill Kisliuk, a spokesperson for UCLA, told Inside Higher Ed when at first defending the job posting.

Contingent faculty, the umbrella term for all kinds of generally part-time and untenured college teachers without much if any job security, make up a huge portion of the teaching staff of universities — by some estimates, around 70% overall and more in community colleges.

They have long complained about the long hours and low pay. But these unpaid arrangements are perhaps the most concrete example of the unequal power in a weak labor market — in which hundreds of candidates might apply for one position. Institutions are able to persuade or cajole people who have invested at least five or six years in earning a Ph.D. to work for free, even though, academics said, these jobs rarely lead to a tenure-track position.

“If your theory is that association with UCLA is itself compensation, then it makes sense,” said Trent McDonald, a Ph.D. candidate in English and American literature and union organizer at Washington University in St. Louis. “I think there is the belief that you can eat prestige.”

Very often, adjuncts and other contingent faculty are asked to do unpaid work that is presented not as free labor but as a way to hone their own credentials, according to union activists and some instructors who have received such requests. It may be characterized as professional development or service. Professionals are sometimes willing to teach a class in their field for free so they can put the university affiliation on their business cards, said Joe T. Berry, a former adjunct and historian of contingent faculty.

And the instructors who are pressed into teaching without job security are often women or minorities, who began entering academia in force as the system was shifting to contingent faculty, said Berry, who recently co-wrote a book on the subject called “Power Despite Precarity.”

In a previous book, Berry said, he has a page listing all the terms that have been used for contingent faculty: One of them is “uncompensated.”

The union representing contingent faculty at the University of California has been fighting the uncompensated positions for years, said Mia McIver, the president of the union, which represents about 7,000 members. “The fact that it is common does not excuse it,” she said.

The union suspects that the number of uncompensated teachers at the university is increasing, said McIver, who is also a lecturer in the UCLA writing program. “As of March 2019, we had identified 26 faculty members at UCLA alone,” she said.

In the California system, the trend seemed to have begun with the financial crisis of 2008, McIver said. By 2010, she said, “We became aware of people who had been laid off and who were teaching for free in the hopes, without any commitment from the university, that if the work came back they would be hired back to teach for pay.”

The union won a settlement with the administration in 2016 requiring compensation for lecturers, who are mostly part-time and make up the majority of contingent faculty, McIver said. But while lecturers are now unionized, adjuncts are not, allowing the university to have adjunct positions known as “0% appointments,” meaning that they are unpaid.

A spokesperson for UCLA, Steve Ritea, said that before the settlement, the people who taught for free were often full-time professionals with other income. He said he could not comment on the number of 0% appointments without seeing the documents the union was relying on. But he said that a typical example of a 0% adjunct is a tenured professor at another institution who has a formal affiliation with UCLA that might include mentoring students or serving on committees. Or someone who has moved to another university but wants to finish out a grant or a project.

The job posting “regrettably contained errors and a lack of context,” he said, adding, “We always offer compensation for classroom teaching.”

Even if someone takes a 0% position willingly, the union sees it as a disincentive for the university to create more secure positions.

“From my perspective, it doesn’t matter whether someone had another job or another position, or is a retired professor who wanted to come back and teach, or a refugee scholar who needed a position, or a postdoc doing research who wanted or needed to teach,” McIver said, rattling off possible justifications. “Ultimately, all of that doesn’t matter because anyone who teaches at a university or any school, let alone the University of California, should be paid for their labor.”

Liza Loza, a graduate student in molecular microbiology and microbial pathogenesis at Washington University, was excited to be asked to teach a discussion section about four years ago. She had to do a lot of preparation, spending hours reading very dense scientific papers and anticipating students’ questions.

But she saw the job as her chance to make those discussions more hospitable to women and other students who had been shut out of the hard sciences. She remembered her own experience having professors who were so intimidating that she was afraid to speak, and she wanted to set a counterexample.

She was told that the job was unpaid because it was a professional development opportunity. She says the experience was valuable. “I did get a lot out of it on my CV, but also personally, as something that I wanted to help make better about the program,” she said.

Then last semester, in her third year of teaching the section, she found out by accident that graduate students in other departments were being paid $1,000 for the same work.

“That was for me a bright line,” she said. “It just seemed sort of straightforwardly unfair once I figured that out.”

She wonders if she was lulled into working for free by the culture of academia, which drills into everyone that they are lucky to be there. “It is a privilege,” she said.

A spokesperson for Washington University, Joni Westerhouse, said graduate students in Loza’s department were required to have one “mentored teaching experience,” for which they were paid through their stipend. She said they were not considered contingent faculty.

Loza said she continued to teach beyond the requirement, and was not compensated for it, while others were.

In an indication of how widespread the practice of free teaching may be, the Twitter posts reacting to the UCLA job posting included one from Caitlin DeAngelis, a historian. In 2018, while being paid to work as a research associate on a project about the historical connections between Harvard and slavery, she said that she voluntarily taught a course, called “Harvard and Slavery,” normally taught by a tenured professor. She did so because she cared so deeply about the subject.

“The course was an extra responsibility added on (as a lectureship in the history department) that did not come with additional pay,” she said in a text message.

On Twitter, she expressed some regrets about agreeing to teach without salary. “In retrospect,” she wrote, “I shouldn’t have done it for $0.00, but I wanted to get the info out to students.”

Harvard confirmed that DeAngelis had an unpaid lectureship in the fall of 2018.

Linn Cary Mehta is a longtime lecturer at Barnard and says she has seen a devaluation, even though adjuncts often have similar credentials to tenured professors. “When I first started we were called instructor and then lecturer,” she said. “The title changed to adjunct instructor, adjunct lecturer, almost aggressively, as if trying to put us in our place.”


Mehta, who has a Ph.D. in comparative literature from Columbia, has spent a career as a part-time worker because she needed the flexibility to care for her husband. She said that unionization at Barnard had provided increased job security through multiyear contracts, and higher salaries per course.

Of the UCLA job posting, she said, “It’s insulting.”

© 2022 The New York Times



CRIMINAL CYBER CAPITAL$M
'Tip of the iceberg': Taiwan's spy catchers hunt Chinese poachers of chip talent



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'Tip of the iceberg': Taiwan's spy catchers hunt Chinese poachers of chip talentFILE PHOTO: An engineer holds a chip while posing for a photo, he is in the middle of testing reactions from different materials and shapes that can have on the chip at the Taiwan Semiconductor Research Institute (TSRI) in Hsinchu


Thu, April 7, 2022, 
By Yimou Lee and Sarah Wu

TAIPEI (Reuters) -Taiwan's spy catchers have launched probes into around 100 Chinese companies suspected of illegally poaching semiconductor engineers and other tech talent, a senior official at the island's Investigation Bureau told Reuters.

That comes on top of seven prosecuted since the start of last year and includes 27 which have either been raided or whose owners have been summoned for questioning by the bureau, the official said.

Home to industry giant TSMC and accounting for 92% of the world's most advanced semiconductor manufacturing capacity, Taiwan possesses what China needs - chip expertise in spades.

A global chip shortage and Beijing's avowed goal of achieving self-reliance in advanced chips - more forcefully promoted by Chinese President Xi Jinping after a trade war with the former Trump administration - has only intensified the scramble for engineering talent.

Taiwan responded with the creation in December 2020 of a task force within the justice ministry's Investigation Bureau - its main spy catching organisation - to tackle poaching.

Cases where it has taken action with raids or questioning represented "the tip of the iceberg", the official said, asking to remain anonymous so that investigations are not impeded.

The Investigation Bureau said the official's comments represented its views.

Heightened military pressure from China, which claims Taiwan as its territory, has only strengthened Taipei's determination to protect its chip supremacy - an asset also strategically important to the United States as much of its chip manufacturing is outsourced to the island.

Last month the bureau conducted its biggest operation to date - a raid of eight companies aimed at countering what it said was "the Chinese Communist Party's illegal activities of talent-poaching and secret-stealing".

China's Taiwan Affairs Office did not respond to a Reuters request for comment.

TRICKS EMPLOYED


It is not illegal per se for Chinese firms to hire Taiwanese engineers. Taiwanese law, however, prohibits Chinese investment in some parts of the semiconductor supply chain including chip design and requires reviews for other areas such as chip packaging, making it very difficult for Chinese chip firms to operate on the island legally.

Taiwanese engineers are also free to go to China, but many prefer the quality of life on the island, especially while COVID-19 restrictions make travel harder.

One case under investigation involves a firm that purports to be a Taiwanese data analysis company but which authorities believe is an arm of a Shanghai-based chip firm sending chip design blueprints to China, according to the official and another colleague who spoke with Reuters.

In mid-March, after nearly a year of surveillance, the bureau summoned the firm's owner for questioning. The owner has since been released on bail, they said, declining to identify the company as charges have yet to be laid.

Other tricks employed include incorporating units in tax havens such as the Cayman Islands, making it harder to identify money inflows from China.

Beijing-based Starblaze Technology, an integrated circuit (IC) design house, has been accused of running an R&D centre in the tech hub of Hsinchu without approval. It allegedly conducted job interviews via Zoom and used a Hong Kong company to handle payroll and insurance, according to court documents reviewed by Reuters. The trial is ongoing.

Tongfu Microelectronics, a Chinese state-affiliated company, was accused of having an illegal office whose employees received salaries in U.S. dollars in offshore accounts wired via a Hong Kong-based subsidiary. The defendants were found guilty in January.

Starblaze and Tongfu did not respond to Reuters requests for comment.

THE MOST WANTED

Lucy Chen, vice president of Taipei-based Isaiah Research, says that last year Chinese chip firms came wooing with salary offers two to three times local levels. Among the most sought-after employees are IC designers, who can work remotely.

While it is difficult to compete on salary, local firms aim to provide more secure long-term career development and perks such daycare centres, massages and gyms on site, said an executive at a Hsinchu chip company, declining to be identified.

Those willing to be poached risk not finding work again at Taiwanese tech firms as well as public shaming. Several senior TSMC executives who went to work for SMIC in China have been branded as traitors in Taiwanese press.

Authorities are also working to increase penalties for poaching. Maximum prison sentences are set to be increased to three years from one year and maximum fines from $5,200 to $520,525.

In a related move, the government has proposed making the leaking of core chip technologies a breach of national security law.

But there are concerns that tougher rules might hinder President Tsai Ing-wen's drive to build a supply chain spanning materials to chip manufacturing.

"What if we put off legitimate foreign investors and damage our national economy due to overly strict regulation?" said the Investigation Bureau senior official.

"It's a dilemma and we need to strike an appropriate balance in between."

($1 = 28.6090 Taiwan dollars)

(Reporting by Yimou Lee and Sarah Wu; Additional reporting by Beijing newsroom; Editing by Edwina Gibbs and Frank Jack Daniel)
CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M 
Chinese scientist sentenced to over 2 years in prison for stealing Monsanto trade secret for China
WITH CHINESE CHARACTERISTICS


Carl Samson
Fri, April 8, 2022

A Chinese scientist who pleaded guilty in January to stealing trade secrets from Missouri-based, global agrochemical firm Monsanto for the benefit of the Chinese government has been sentenced to more than two years in prison.

Xiang Haitao, 44, admitted to stealing copies of a proprietary predictive algorithm known as the Nutrient Optimizer while employed as an imaging scientist with Monsanto’s subsidiary The Climate Corporation in St. Louis from 2008 to 2017.

Xiang moved to China a day after leaving the company in June 2017. There, he worked for the Chinese Academy of Science’s Institute of Soil Science, which is run by the government.

While Xiang was in China, U.S. investigators determined that he possessed copies of the Nutrient Optimizer. He was arrested when he returned to the U.S. in November 2019.

The Nutrient Optimizer is an algorithm that serves as a key component of a farming software platform that collects, stores and visualizes agricultural data and improves agricultural productivity.

Xiang was sentenced to 29 months in prison on Thursday for conspiring to commit economic espionage.

“Xiang conspired to steal an important trade secret to gain an unfair advantage for himself and the PRC,” Assistant Attorney General Matthew G. Olsen of the Justice Department’s National Security Division said in a news release. “The victim companies invested significant time and resources to develop this intellectual property.”

On top of his prison term, Xiang was sentenced to three years of supervised release and fined $150,000.

“Economic espionage is a serious offense that can threaten U.S. companies’ competitive advantage, and the National Security Division is committed to holding accountable anyone who steals trade secrets to benefit a foreign government,” Olsen added.

Xiang’s sentencing is the result of the Trump-era China Initiative, which came under scrutiny for being “anti-Asian” and was consequently replaced with the more comprehensive Strategy for Countering Nation-State Threats in February.

“Those who conspire to steal technology from U.S. businesses and transfer it to China cause tremendous economic damage to our country,” Assistant Director Alan E. Kohler Jr. of the FBI’s Counterintelligence Division said. “The government of China does not hesitate to go after the ingenuity that drives our economy.

“Stealing our highly prized technology can lead to the loss of good-paying jobs here in the United States, affecting families, and sometimes entire communities. Our economic security is essential to our national security. That’s why at the FBI protecting our nation’s innovation is both a law enforcement and a top national security priority.”

Xiang faced a maximum sentence of five years in prison and $5 million in fines.
Animal crossing: world’s biggest wildlife bridge comes to California highway


Katharine Gammon in Los Angeles
Sat, April 9, 2022, 

Imagine cruising down a 10-lane highway and knowing that, high above your head, a mountain lion is quietly going along its way. This remarkable image could soon be reality for drivers on one of California’s busiest roads, as the world’s largest wildlife overpass begins construction this month.

The history-making project will comprise a green bridge built across the 101 highway near Los Angeles, creating a corridor between two parts of the Santa Monica mountains. Stretching 210ft long and 165ft wide, the overpass will allow safe passage for lizards, snakes, toads and mountain lions, with an acre of local plants on either side and vegetated sound walls to dampen light and noise for nocturnal animals as they slip across.

The project, nearly a decade in the making, comes at a crucial time. Highways in this car-heavy landscape crisscross critical habitat for the protected mountain lions and other animals, forcing them to make what can be deadly crossings. At least 25 of the big cats have been killed on Los Angeles freeways since 2002. The latest death was just weeks ago, on 23 March, when a young lion was struck and killed on the Pacific Coast highway.

Beth Pratt, an urban ecologist with the National Wildlife Federation, feels as if she is running the last mile of a marathon. Pratt has spent most of the last decade planning the project, persuading transportation officials of its importance, and bringing together stakeholders and donors to fund it. “I’m a little dizzy still, but I feel relieved: we have the chance to give these mountain lions a shot at a future.”

A rendering of the wildlife bridge crossing, which will feature native plants and vegetated walls. Photograph: AP

A groundbreaking ceremony to mark the start of construction for the $90m crossing – called the Wallis Annenberg wildlife crossing – will take place on Earth Day, 22 April. Construction will mostly happen at night and the project isn’t expected to be complete until early 2025.


The bridge’s price tag will be covered by about 60% private donations, with the rest coming from public funds set aside for conservation purposes. California’s Governor Gavin Newsom has called the project an “inspiring example” of public-private partnership.
‘A symbol of connection’

The project is breaking the mold in many ways: not only is it the largest crossing in the world, stretching over 10 lanes of one of the busiest roadways in the country, but it’s also an engineering marvel. The crossing is designed to seamlessly integrate into the mountains, offering big cats, coyotes, deer, lizards, snakes and other creatures a safe way to travel to different parts of open territory in the Santa Monica mountains recreation area – a 150,000-acre space.

This is restoring a piece of lost habitat, putting it back across the mountains
Robert Rock, architect

Robert Rock, a landscape architect with Living Futures in Chicago who led the design, says this nature-centered type of construction makes it unusual among other wildlife bridges and underpasses around the world, which are typically made of cement and steel. This one is designed to seamlessly glide into the environment on both sides – and send a message to the people driving below.

His team includes a soil scientist – who collected samples nearby that are specific to the local trees – and a mycologist, who is studying the fungi of the area and how they can help the seamless flow of plants and animals across the overpass. Docents will be posted nearby to discourage people from exploring the overpass. (Pratt says that planting poison oak and posting signs about rattlesnakes are also effective tools to keep humans off the bridge.)

Rock says he is optimistic that the investment could serve as a precedent for how design can play a restorative role in the natural world. “As both a tool for and a symbol of connection, it will stand as an alluring challenge to future generations to pick up the mantle of design to bridge the gaps elsewhere in our world,” he says.

Approximately 300,000 cars pass through this area each day, and Pratt calls it an opportunity for millions of Angelenos to see how humans can live more harmoniously with nature. “Someone could be in rush-hour traffic, and there could be a mountain lion right above them,” she says. “I think that’s such a hopeful image, and one that inspires me that we can right some of these great wrongs.”

Pratt says the plight of the region’s mountain lions caught the eye of donors from around the world. People sent money from London. A couple from Kansas who had visited the city only once donated $675,000. Leonardo DiCaprio’s foundation chipped in $300,000. Pratt points to the local celebrity mountain lion P22, whose exploits around the city have captured headlines, as a catalyst for it all. “People really took his plight to heart, and this is not just a California story: the world has come together around his cause.”

P22 won’t actually be the intended user of this crossing, since he lives in a part of Los Angeles far east of the mountain range. But his symbol helped raise the money that will fund the bridge. And most of the area’s 100 mountain lions live in the area that the bridge will span.

The scientists say there is a learning curve for animals, and they will slowly begin to explore the bridge. For wary creatures, it may take up to five years to use the crossing successfully. Cats will follow smaller prey species, who generally more quickly adapt to the new territory.

“It’s not just a solution for P22 to get across the road, as much as P22 is the face of the campaign,” says Rock. “This is restoring a piece of lost habitat, putting it back across the mountains.”
More projects in the future

Wildlife crossings are picking up speed across the country, and the world. They make economic sense – most pay for themselves in a decade or two, and a study in Banff, Canada, whose national park has more than 40 wildlife underpasses and overpasses, found a 90% decrease in wildlife-vehicle collisions, which saved the park money.


The stretch of Highway 101 where groundbreaking is set to begin in April 2022.
 Photograph: John Antczak/AP

But it’s only recently that the wildlife science and infrastructure communities have come together to understand the problem deeply. Joe Biden’s $1.2tn infrastructure bill earmarked $350m for animal-friendly infrastructure like bridges, underpasses and roadside fences.

Pratt says the project struggled to raise money in the early days of planning. Luckily the team was able to find some people who recognized the importanceof this project.

But perhaps the bigger challenge was philosophical: naysayers told her the project shouldn’t or couldn’t be done – “that we shouldn’t waste money on saving mountain lions in an urban area, that we would never be able to raise the funds.” She was undeterred. “I wasn’t going to take no for an answer, not when a population of mountain lions was at stake.”
US, WHO officials and experts agree (sort of) on how COVID-19 spreads

COVID: ‘We need to stop wearing cloth masks and go to N95s for all,’ expert says



Anjalee Khemlani
·Senior Reporter
Fri, April 8, 2022,

Sars-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, is airborne. That simple declaration from the White House is what some experts around the world have known since 2020 — and it could have major implications for U.S. businesses and organizations.

Dr. Alondra Nelson, head of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) and deputy assistant to President Joe Biden, announced the highly-awaited words in a recent statement.

"The most common way COVID-19 is transmitted from one person to another is through tiny airborne particles of the virus hanging in indoor air for minutes or hours after an infected person has been there," she said.

That single sentence confirms what was first uncovered in a March 2020 report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIH) officials. However, that information was not relayed to Americans until several months later.

It took even longer for both the CDC and WHO to acknowledge COVID's spread via aerosols, despite growing evidence.

"SARS-CoV-2 remained viable in aerosols throughout the duration of our experiment (3 hours)" and was more stable on non-porous surfaces, the study said.

The latter point was emphasized by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) a month later, without acknowledging the former. Eventually, the U.S. adopted the idea that transmission in the air was dominant, but through larger particles, or droplets, in the summer of 2020.

Why droplets were favored over aerosols has to do with the difference in the way aerosol experts and public health experts define the size of the particle. A tug-of-war between both sides made headlines in the first few months of the pandemic and have continued under the radar ever since.

U.S. President-elect Joe Biden listens to Dr. Alondra Nelson, his pick for OSTP Deputy Director for Science and Society (Reuters)
Why it matters

Deeming the coronavirus airborne places a burden on businesses, schools, and other indoor venues to ensure proper masking when COVID-19 levels are high in an area. In addition, it also presents the problem of revamping air systems or adding filtration and ventilation.

Marina Jabsky, an industrial hygienist with the New York Committee for Occupational Safety and Health, explained how to think about it.

"If you've ever been in the same room as somebody who's smoking, regardless of how far apart form them you're standing, you're gonna smell the smoke, right? Because the air particles will expand to fill the space," Jabsky said.

And size matters. The larger the space with fewer people in it, the lower the concentration is going to be.

"If you do not have a solid, well-functioning ventilation system, you're going to have a buildup of concentration of particles, and that's where the risk really increases," Jabsky said.

That's the reason behind the push for better quality masks, which the U.S. government has provided to Americans — via retail pharmacies and community health centers — for free. It's also why the American Rescue Plan (ARP) included $122 billion for schools and $350 billion for state, local and Tribal governments to help provide better ventilation systems.

One industry in particular was forced to quickly figure out how to keep its employees safe. After facing a shortage of personal protective equipment (PPE) at the start of the pandemic, hospitals are now able to regularly supply PPE to their staff. However, the cost of that PPE has gone up significantly compared to pre-pandemic levels.

Hospitals also adapted by either putting in better filtration systems, adding ventilation, or increasing the number of isolation rooms as needed. The steps to ensure filtration and ventilation came after it was discovered the virus was airborne.

"If it were droplet, and only droplets, then some of the masking requirements and some of the ventilation requirements might not be necessary," said Nancy Foster, vice president of quality and patient safety policy at the American Hospital Association.

Foster told Yahoo Finance that for droplets, proper masking is still be necessary, but some of the bigger facility upgrades might not be.


A person wearing a mask walks out of a store past a "Wear a face mask" sign, during the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic, in the Manhattan borough of New York City, New York, U.S., February 9, 2022. REUTERS/Carlo Allegri


'It doesn't make sense to completely remove the idea of droplets'

There is lingering pressure from some experts to maintain droplets as part of the definition of how the virus is transmitted. And that can impact the difference in which protective gear is used by health professionals.

Dr. Abraar Karan, an infectious disease doctor at Stanford, explained why.

He said droplets may not be the primary route, but they aren't excluded in the range of particle sizes.

Scientists have noted "both droplets and aerosols, and particles of sizes in between the two" hold the potential for spread, Karan said.

"People can still have larger droplets that land in their mucosa or land in other exposed areas. So it doesn't make sense to completely remove the idea of droplets," he said.

In a February interview with Yahoo Finance, CDC Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky didn't call it airborne, but noted Sars-Cov-2 was like any other respiratory virus and that masking and ventilation are essential to curb transmission.

Kim Prather, an aerosol expert at UC San Diego, is another expert who has consistently asked for widespread acknowledgement of airborne transmission, pointing to another coronavirus, SARS, noting it was airborne as well.

"One of the biggest lessons learned (then) was you've got to follow the precautionary principle. If you think it has any chance of being airborne, that has to be out there....whether it's the dominant (pathway) or not," she said.

OSTP's Nelson agreed, citing the CDC's latest definition of the spread of the disease that included "small droplets and aerosol particles that contain the virus."

It's why in her statement, Nelson included ways to cost-effectively upgrade air systems for businesses.

"We’re saying it more loudly now and with a unified voice across the federal government that the most important mitigation measures for restaurants and businesses are masking, distancing, and dilution or removal of COVID-19 virus particles in the air. These actions are more effective at reducing the spread of COVID-19 than sanitizing surfaces, which the CDC has said is not a substantial contributor to new infections," Nelson said.

But, according to Dr. Georgia Lagoudas, sanitizing is still a useful strategy.

"Over the past two years, we've had to deal with an evolving virus and learning new science," said Lagoudas, OSTP's Senior Advisor for Biotechnology and Bioeconomy.
How we got here

In April 2020, (the same day former President Donald Trump infamously suggested digesting disinfectant to get rid of COVID-19), DHS acting under secretary Bill Bryan said the virus could survive on surfaces for up to 18 hours in low humidity, low temperature environments.

The idea of aerosolized virus staying suspended for up to three hours wasn't discussed. Officials were mostly focused on symptomatic or asymptomatic spread, in addition to figuring out how to detect and curb transmission, as well as identify what substances break down the viral particles.

However, identifying aerosols became especially important after it became clear asymptomatic spread was occurring at a higher rate than expected. It's why masking was recommended soon after Bryan's presentation.

"Those two things have made the difference for this over every other disease process that we've seen in our lifetimes," said Dr. Joe Vipond, an emergency room doctor in Calgary, about asymptomatic and airborne spread.

"But neither of these changes, by the WHO or the CDC, were done in an open fashion," Vipond added.

Linsey Marr, an aerosol expert and professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Virginia Tech, noted the reliance on droplets missed the mark of how easily and effectively COVID-19 transmits.

Nelson used "strong, powerful, clear words that we should have heard from the CDC two years ago," Marr said.

Saskia Popescu, an assistant professor in the biodefense program at George Mason University, recently told Yahoo Finance the topic remains important.

"We definitely need to talk about aerosol transmission," she said.

"We need to make it very clear to people you can get infected by breathing it," Popsecu added.

Dr. Leyla Asadi, an infectious disease doctor, expressed a similar sentiment.

“I think that the word airborne is very straightforward. It gives you a really excellent mental model, you don’t need a complicated chart," she said.


Long-term benefits and lessons


Jose-Luis Jimenez, an aerosol expert and chemistry professor at the University of Colorado, has been one of the leaders of the effort to ensure global understanding of the virus's route of transmission.

He and Marr penned a recent op-ed highlighting the problem now is too many people will remember what they were first told — which was that the virus didn't spread far. This is why the combination of COVID-fatigue and politically-aligned resistance to mask use will remain an obstacle for ending the pandemic, they wrote.

However, the outlook isn't entirely grim. With the White House now behind the push, improving indoor air quality is a goal that can be worked toward beyond COVID.

It's "something we should be thinking about not just because of COVID, but because of general health," Popescu said.

There have long been studies showing those in urban or lower-income areas suffer from chronic health issues related to poor air quality. With upgraded air systems, that could improve overall health.

It’s a “chronic problem of not investing in infrastructure, not investing in ventilation,” NYCOSH's Jabsky said.

Prather noted, "We clean our water, we will not drink unfiltered water, but we will breathe unfiltered air. I mean, how does that make sense? We need cleaner indoor air."

Jabsky hopes the pandemic acts as a catalyst for the cause.

“At this point, if we’re having a global pandemic that is due to a disease that is airborne (and that is) not incentive enough to deal with our ventilation issues, I just don’t know what is going to be the stimulant,” she said.

Marr explained what's needed is an overhaul of regulations and standards.

"I think there's longer term changes, in terms of how we design and operate our buildings that we should be thinking about. And, ultimately, to put some teeth into this, there will need to be standards and regulations. And those will take years," she said.

Follow Anjalee on Twitter @AnjKhem
Oklahoma state officials resist Supreme Court ruling affirming tribal authority over American Indian country

Kirsten Matoy Carlson, Professor of Law and Adjunct Professor of Political Science, Wayne State University
THE CONVERSATION
Fri, April 8, 2022

Large portions of Oklahoma are governed, at least in part, by tribal jurisdiction. crimsonedge34 via Wikimedia Commons

It’s unusual for someone to ask the U.S. Supreme Court to revisit one of its decisions. It’s very rare for that to happen almost immediately after the ruling was issued. But in the two years since the court’s ruling in a key case about Native American rights, the state of Oklahoma has made that request more than 40 times.

State officials have also repeatedly refused to cooperate with tribal leaders to comply with the ruling, issued in 2020 and known as McGirt v. Oklahoma. Local governments, however, continue to cooperate with the tribes and show how the ruling could actually help build connections between the tribal governments and their neighbors.

In the McGirt ruling, the Supreme Court held that much of eastern Oklahoma is Indian country under the terms of an 1833 treaty between the U.S. government and the Muscogee Creek Nation. Based on that treaty and an 1885 federal law, the ruling effectively means that the state of Oklahoma cannot prosecute crimes committed by or against American Indians there. Federal and tribal officials are the only ones who can pursue these cases.

Since that ruling, federal courts have held that the lands in Oklahoma of five additional tribes – the Cherokee Nation, the Choctaw Nation, the Seminole Nation, the Chickasaw Nation and the Quapaw Nation – also remain American Indian country and are subject to federal and tribal jurisdiction under the 1885 federal law. Under these decisions, about 43% of Oklahoma is Indian country.

Together, these court decisions have closed a major legal loophole. Before these rulings, suspected criminals in eastern Oklahoma regularly avoided prosecution because police could not agree whether the state, tribal or federal government had jurisdiction over the land where the crime occurred.

The Supreme Court made clear that certain areas are tribal land, subject to federal and tribal criminal jurisdiction. This makes it harder for alleged criminals to avoid prosecution because now law enforcement officials, as well as average people, know definitively that federal and tribal authorities can prosecute these crimes.



State resistance

Oklahoma’s governor and attorney general have resisted the McGirt ruling and made several claims that the decision harms the state.

They contend that it has undermined public safety because it has led to the release of thousands of criminals from state prisons.

However, most of the people released from state custody after the McGirt decision have been charged in federal or tribal courts. Jimcy McGirt, whose name the Supreme Court case bears, has been tried and convicted in federal court of sexually assaulting a 4-year-old girl. He is now serving a life sentence without parole in federal prison.

State officials also argue that the McGirt decision threatens to cost the state millions of dollars in tax revenue from income and sales taxes on tribal citizens in eastern Oklahoma. Tax experts counter that the state has overstated the concern because most of the land in eastern Oklahoma is owned by non-Native Americans and remains taxable by the state.
Requesting reversal

Based on these claims, state officials have repeatedly asked the Supreme Court to revisit its decision – and been rejected more than 30 times. In one of those attempts, in January 2022, the court declined to hear a case that would have applied the McGirt decision retroactively to convictions that were final at the time McGirt was decided. Defendants with final convictions will not be able to challenge them and will serve out their sentences in Oklahoma state prisons.

The Supreme Court has agreed to consider whether Oklahoma should have authority to prosecute non-Indians accused of committing crimes against Indians in Indian country, but refused to revisit its holding in McGirt. Any ruling in that case may adjust the McGirt decision, but cannot overturn it.
No longer working together

Beyond asking the Supreme Court to reverse itself, Oklahoma has simply stopped pursuing a productive working relationship with tribal governments.

In the past, Oklahoma had some mutually beneficial arrangements with tribal governments. For instance, the Cherokee and Choctaw Nations both say they have treaty rights to hunt and fish on their reservation lands without state permission. But since 2016, they have negotiated agreements to pay for state-issued hunting and fishing licenses for tribal citizens to use on tribal land. They were willing to continue those agreements even after the McGirt ruling suggested that under their treaties with the federal government, the state has no authority over hunting and fishing on their lands.

Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt had celebrated the agreements’ renewal in 2020, but refused to extend the agreements into 2022. He claimed that the agreements gave unfair treatment to tribal citizens because the tribal governments paid a discounted bulk rate for the licenses. The state will lose $38 million by not renewing the agreements.

However, state game wardens will still be allowed to enforce hunting regulations on tribal land under a separate agreement signed in 2020. As the hunting and fishing seasons begin, it remains to be seen if the state will seek to prosecute tribal members hunting and fishing on reservation lands without a state license.

The state of Oklahoma has also sought to limit the ability of tribal governments to regulate the environment on tribal lands by requesting that the administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency allow the state to continue administering its environmental programs in tribal country. Federal environmental laws recognize the rights of tribal governments to set and implement environmental standards, including water and air quality, on their lands. Oklahoma’s actions seek to prevent this.



A more collaborative approach

Despite the state of Oklahoma’s efforts to discredit tribal governments and their treaty rights, the McGirt decision has fostered cooperative federalism, or the sharing of responsibility among different governments to work together to govern people at the local level.

Local governments have cooperated with the tribes and built on preexisting relationships to implement the McGirt decision. Tribal governments have responded to the decision by increasing their law enforcement budgets, hiring additional public safety officers, prosecuting attorneys and judges, and improving their criminal codes.

Choctaw Public Safety has hired an additional 30 law enforcement officers. The Cherokee Nation, the Muscogee Nation and the Choctaw Nation have all entered into cross-deputization agreements with local law enforcement agencies to ensure the seamless administration of public safety. These agreements allow municipal officers to act as tribal officers and vice versa within specific areas and encourage cooperation among local and tribal law enforcement.

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The Cherokee Nation has signed agreements with 13 municipalities to handle fines for traffic citations. The McGirt ruling clarifies that the tribal government, instead of the towns, should receive the money. Under the agreement, the Cherokee Nation donates almost all of the traffic fines back to the local governments so they can continue to provide local law enforcement. Local officials have praised the increased cooperation with the tribal governments.

The tribes and local governments are demonstrating an example of collaboration that the state could also be part of. Tribal governments have expressed a willingness to work with the state of Oklahoma and acknowledged that they share common interests in providing for their citizens. By resisting the McGirt decision, state officials are missing an opportunity to build connections among, and improve government services for, all the people who live in Oklahoma.

This article is republished from The Conversation, a nonprofit news site dedicated to sharing ideas from academic experts. It was written by: Kirsten Matoy Carlson, Wayne State University.

Read more:

Supreme Court upholds American Indian treaty promises, orders Oklahoma to follow federal law


Supreme Court affirms tribal police authority over non-Indians

Apple snails: Slimy invader attacks La. crawfish and rice farms



Tristan Baurick
Fri, April 8, 2022

First it came for your wetlands. Now it’s coming for your crawfish and your rice.

A foreign snail that appeared in Louisiana just over 10 years ago and quickly infested ponds, bayous and streams in about 30 parishes has recently found its way to the farms that produce two of the state’s favorite foods.

The invasive apple snail has shut down harvest at some crawfish farms in Vermilion, Acadia and Jefferson Davis parishes and has made its first devastating appearance in rice fields. In March, the invasive mollusks wiped out a 50-acre field of rice, marking the first reported case of the snail damaging the crop in Louisiana.

"Where it’s hit ‘em, it’s hit ‘em hard,” said David Savoy, a Church Point crawfish farmer and chairman of the Louisiana Crawfish Promotion and Research Board. “In Vermilion, it’s so bad, you pick up a trap and there’s 5 to 10 pounds of them. It’s horrible.”




Attracted by the bait in traps, the snails crowd in, leaving little or no room for crawfish. At some farms, apple snails are being caught in such high numbers — sometimes 12 crates per day — that disposal of the thick-shelled snails is becoming a problem.

Some farmers have had to halt harvests and drain their ponds early, suffering revenue reductions of as much as 50%, said Blake Wilson, an LSU AgCenter researcher.

“The impact on some of those farms, particularly where snail populations have been building for years, has been immense,” he said.

Only about 10 crawfish farms have been affected, but new reports keep coming in.

Louisiana is by far the nation’s biggest crawfish producer. The industry contributes more than $300 million to the state economy each year and employs about 7,000 people, according to the research board.



“If the problem spreads to the whole industry, economic impacts could be tens of millions of dollars annually without effective control tactics,” Wilson said.

Those tactics are currently limited to pesticides. But what kills snails will also likely kill crawfish.

Native to South America, the apple snail’s first appearance in Louisiana was in a Gretna drainage canal in 2006.

They’re popular in the aquarium trade partly because they eat the algae that dirties tanks. But they get quite big — sometimes growing shells 6 inches in diameter — and they often have a strong, swampy odor. Their presence in the wild is likely due to aquarium owners dumping them in ditches and ponds.

The snails stay below the water's surface and aren’t often seen, but their bubblegum pink eggs are hard to miss. In clusters of 200 to 600, the tiny eggs have become an all-too-common sight on tree trucks and pilings just above the water line. Destroying the eggs is one of the best ways to reduce their numbers.



The state Department of Wildlife and Fisheries recommends people scrape the eggs off with a stick and crush them, or at least knock them into the water. Be careful not to touch them because the eggs contain a neurotoxin that can irritate skin and eyes.

The snails are edible but are known to carry rat lungworm, a parasite that can kill humans and other mammals.

Rapid reproducers and voracious eaters, the snail overpopulates waterways and kills off habitat important to native fish and other wildlife.

The snail’s appearance in crawfish farms comes at a particularly bad time for the industry. Crawfish have been hit with white spot syndrome, a deadly virus that was first discovered in farmed shrimp in Asia in the early 1990s and first appeared in Louisiana 2007.

The coronavirus pandemic has taken a toll as well. The AgCenter reported that some crawfish producers have been able to sell just 15% of their catch due to pandemic-related restaurant closures and occupancy limits.



Scientists and farmers are perplexed about how the snail arrived in crawfish farms and why certain farms are swarming with them.

“It’s weird,” AgCenter researcher Greg Lutz said. “It pops up in certain regions. You can have a farm with nothing, and three or four miles down the road they’re overrun.”

It could be that the snails benefit from flooding. An Acadia Parish farm started having a snail problem after its fields were flooded from a bayou linked to the Mermentau River, which is loaded with apple snails.

The snail has been identified in just one rice field so far, but the potential for widespread destruction is strong. It’s a major pest for rice growers in Spain, Asia and Central America. In the Philippines, the snail is considered a national menace, infesting about half the nation’s rice fields during the late 1980s.

The snail left almost nothing at the rice field near Rayne. Wilson estimated the field had two snails per square foot.

“There was no trace of rice,” he said. “If you didn’t know better, you’d think it was a snail production farm.”


The Courier
This article originally appeared on The Courier: Slimy invader attacks La. crawfish and rice farms
PAKISTAN
Water crisis on horizon as snow melts at snail’s pace

Ahmad Fraz Khan
Published April 10, 2022 -
THIS file photo shows a general view of the black Shisper glacier in the Karakoram mountain range on June 28, 2019.—AFP


LAHORE: Despite an early onset of summer in mid-March and April getting hotter than usual, the snow melting process in mountainous and hilly areas has not picked up pace, putting profound pressure on the national water supplies and making the planners quite nervous.

For the last 10 days, national water supplies have dipped substantially below not only last year’s levels, but average supplies of the last five or 10 years for the day, forcing Pakistan to start its Kharif season with close to a 40 per cent shortage in both of its water-producing systems — 30pc in Indus and 10pc in the Jhelum arm.

“The situation is more precarious in Mangla, which is hosting less than 1pc of its capacity,” says Khalid Rana of the Indus River System Authority (Irsa).

On Saturday, Mangla held only 354,000 acre-feet against over seven million of its capacity. This is largely because the Mangla Lake is mainly rain-fed and there has virtually been no rain during March. The Met Office predicted five spells of rain, but only one took place.

“To make matters worse, 37 inches of snow fell this winter against the yearly average of 50 inches — a drop of 26pc. Even those 37 inches seem to have fallen on higher altitudes, where the temperature needs to be more than the current 23 degrees Celsius to melt it. These trends — less and high altitude snow and virtually no rain — have created a crisis in the Jhelum arm,” Mr Rana explains.

“The same trend seems to have impacted River Chenab as well,” explains an official of the Punjab Irrigation Department. The flows are improving, but too slowly to benefit the system — widening the gap between demand and supply.

On Saturday, the river was flowing at 22,000 cusecs against the last 10-year average of 25,000 cusecs. The Saturday flows included almost 30pc improvement; otherwise, it was flowing at 15,000 cusecs when the month started. So, the entire water-producing system has receded to a low level, and is not benefitting from the high temperatures, the official maintains.

The national water flow data, compiled by the Water and Power Development Authority (Wapda), explains the extent of water poverty. On Saturday, the country received 90,000 cusecs in all its rivers against the last 10-year average of 137,700 cusecs — a drop of 27.73pc.

Individually speaking, Jhelum provided 27,200 cusecs against its 10-year average of 48,200 cusecs; River Kabul was flowing at 12,900 cusecs against the average of 32,600 cusecs; Indus provided 27,500 cusecs against its average of 31,200 cusecs and Chenab chimed in with 22,200 cusecs against the average of 25,700 cusecs.

“Even the temperatures in Skardu have doubled — from 11 degree Celsius last year to 22.2 degree on Saturday — but snow melting has not increased,” says a Wapda official dealing with the snow and its melting phenomenon. “We can still give a benefit of the doubt to river flows as they involve two to three days of lag when water leaves the mountains and reaches Tarbela Dam. The entire snow will eventually reach the rivers, but the current delay remains a cause of concern.

“Tarbela and Mangla lakes are almost at dead level and not improving due to the absence of rains and snow melt,” Sahibzada Khan, director general of the meteorological department, said.

The trend is expected to hold for another month or so before it improves by the end of May or beginning of June, when both high temperatures and rains would start benefitting the system.

Published in Dawn, April 10th, 2022
UK
Rishi Sunak is fighting for his political survival after admitting he held US green card while a minister





Catherine Neilan
Fri, April 8, 2022

Rishi Sunak is fighting for his political future after damaging leaks about his family's tax arrangements.


The chancellor was a favourite to take over for Boris Johnson, but those ambitions are now "done for," one MP said.


Another senior Conservative suggested Sunak might have to resign or take a demotion over the row.


Rishi Sunak is fighting for his political survival after admitting he held a US green card for several months after becoming chancellor.

The man who just a few weeks ago was a favourite to replace Boris Johnson as prime minister now seems to be completely out of the race – and could even lose his existing role, Westminster sources suggested.

At a Downing Street press conference Friday, Johnson backed Sunak, saying he was doing an "absolutely outstanding job".

Amid suggestions that Sunak is the subject of a hostile briefing campaign, the prime minister said any briefings against the chancellor "certainly aren't coming from us at No 10."

"Heaven knows where they are coming from," Johnson added.

But Johnson also said he was unaware of Sunak's wife Akshata Murty's non-domicile tax status, as reported by The Independent this week.

This afternoon, it further emerged that Sunak held a green card until his first American trip after becoming chancellor in October 2021. He was elected in 2015 and first became a minister in 2018.

Sunak and Murty, who own a £5.5m Californian penthouse holiday home, continued to keep the green card tax status when they moved to the UK before Sunak was elected as MP for Richmond in North Yorkshire in 2015


A spokesperson said: "Rishi Sunak had a green card when he lived and worked in the US… Rishi Sunak followed all guidance and continued to file US tax returns, but specifically as a non-resident, in full compliance with the law.

"As required under US law and as advised, he continued to use his green card for travel purposes. Upon his first trip to the US in a government capacity as chancellor, he discussed the appropriate course of action with the US authorities. At that point, it was considered best to return his green card, which he did immediately.

"All laws and rules have been followed and full taxes have been paid where required in the duration he held his green card."

MPs told Insider his leadership hopes were now dead and suggested he may even have to resign.

"The fact the party has sat back and let everyone go to town on him just shows you - his stock has collapsed through the floor," said one senior Tory. "Nobody believes he can continue as chancellor - you can't put taxes up that don't affect your wife."

In a best-case scenario, Sunak would be moved to foreign secretary, paving the way for Liz Truss to become the first female chancellor, the MP said.

This would both "wind up" Labour and help undermine Truss' efforts to woo backbenchers as it would "put her in a position where she has to start saying 'no' to colleagues."

However, the same MP added: "Maybe he should resign."

Sunak's star had been on the wane before this week, as the cost of living crisis builds. The spring statement, delivered in March, was widely seen as having fallen short of what was required from the Treasury, with many Conservative MPs left disappointed by Sunak's decision to plough ahead with the unpopular rose to National Insurance.

Even before that, MPs said he had missed his chance to become leader and that Conservatives were "past peak Rishi".

This week's revelations have tipped the scales further against the chancellor, sources said.

Another Tory said the green card would make things "tricky" for Sunak.

"Attacks on wealth don't land, except with those already against him, and I'm not sure attacks on his wife will either. But it's obviously not good for him."

Another senior Conservative agreed. "He has a very shallow supporter base in the party – there are very few out defending him… He should have resigned in January and then he might have won.

"My guess is this, the spring statement, the petrol station farce, and cost of living have done for him."


Sharif, frontrunner as next Pakistani PM, seen as 'can-do' administrator


Leader of the opposition Shehbaz Sharif speaks to the media at the Supreme Court of Pakistan in Islamabad

Syed Raza Hassan and Gibran Naiyyar Peshimam
Fri, April 8, 2022

ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Shehbaz Sharif, the person most likely to be Pakistan's next prime minister, is little known outside his home country but has a reputation domestically as an effective administrator more than as a politician.

The younger brother of three-time prime minister Nawaz Sharif, Shehbaz, 70, is leading a bid by the opposition in parliament to topple Imran Khan, and if a vote of no-confidence goes ahead on Saturday he is widely expected to replace Khan.

Analysts say Shehbaz, unlike Nawaz, enjoys amicable relations with Pakistan's military, which traditionally controls foreign and defence policy in the nuclear-armed nation of 220 million people.

Pakistan's generals have directly intervened to topple civilian governments three times, and no prime minister has finished a full five-year term since the South Asian state's independence from Britain in 1947.

Shehbaz Sharif, part of the wealthy Sharif dynasty, is best known for his direct, "can-do" administrative style, which was on display when, as chief minister of Punjab province, he worked closely with China on Beijing-funded projects.

He also said in an interview last week that good relations with the United States were critical for Pakistan for better or for worse, in stark contrast to Khan's recently antagonistic relationship with Washington.

There are still several procedural steps before Sharif can become Pakistan's 23rd prime minister, not including caretaker administrations, although the opposition has consistently identified him as its sole candidate.

If he does take on the role, he faces immediate challenges, not least Pakistan's crumbling economy, which has been hit by high inflation, a tumbling local currency and rapidly declining foreign exchange reserves.

Analysts also say Sharif will not act with complete independence as he will have to work on a collective agenda with the others opposition parties and his brother.

Nawaz has lived for the last two years in London since being let out of jail, where he was serving a sentence for corruption, for medical treatment.

'PUNJAB SPEED'

As chief minister of Punjab, Pakistan's most populous province, Shehbaz Sharif planned and executed a number of ambitious infrastructure mega-projects, including Pakistan's first modern mass transport system in his hometown, the eastern city of Lahore.

According to local media, the outgoing Chinese consul general wrote to Sharif last year praising his "Punjab Speed" execution of projects under the huge China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) initiative.

The diplomat also said Sharif and his party would be friends of China in government or in opposition.

On Afghanistan, Islamabad is under international pressure to prod the Taliban to meet its human rights commitments while trying to limit instability there.

Unlike Khan, who has regularly denounced India's Hindu nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the Sharif political dynasty has been more dovish towards the fellow nuclear-armed neighbour, with which Pakistan has fought three wars.

In terms of his relationship with the powerful military, Sharif has long played the public "good cop" to Nawaz's "bad cop" - the latter has had several public spats with the army.

Shehbaz was born in Lahore into a wealthy industrial family and was educated locally. After that he entered the family business and jointly owns a Pakistani steel company.

He entered politics in Punjab, becoming its chief minister for the first time in 1997 before he was caught up in national political upheaval and imprisoned following a military coup. He was then sent into exile in Saudi Arabia in 2000.

Shehbaz returned from exile in 2007 to resume his political career, again in Punjab.

He entered the national political scene when he became the chief of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party after Nawaz was found guilty in 2017 on charges of concealing assets related to the Panama Papers revelations.

The Sharif family and supporters say the cases were politically motivated.

Both brothers have faced numerous corruption cases in the National Accountability Bureau, including under Khan's premiership, but Shehbaz has not been found guilty on any charges.

(Reporting by Syed Raza Hassan and Gibran Peshimam; Editing by William Mallard and Mike Collett-White)


Explainer-What political upheaval in Pakistan means for rest of the world


 PTI chairman Imran Khan gestures while addressing his supporters during a campaign meeting ahead of general elections in Karachi

Fri, April 8, 2022
By Jonathan Landay and Gibran Naiyyar Peshimam

WASHINGTON/ISLAMABAD (Reuters) - Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan faces a no-confidence vote in parliament on Saturday which he is widely expected to lose.

If that happens, or he resigns before then, a new government would be formed most likely under opposition leader Shehbaz Sharif, but it was unclear how long it could last or whether elections expected to take place later this year would bring greater clarity.

The nation of more than 220 million people lies between Afghanistan to the west, China to the northeast and India to the east, making it of vital strategic importance.

Since coming to power in 2018, Khan's rhetoric has become more anti-American and he expressed a desire to move closer to China and, recently, Russia - including talks with President Vladimir Putin on the day the invasion of Ukraine began.

At the same time, U.S. and Asian foreign policy experts said that Pakistan's powerful military has traditionally controlled foreign and defence policy, thereby limiting the impact of political instability.

Here is what the upheaval, which comes as the economy is in deep trouble, means for countries closely involved in Pakistan:

AFGHANISTAN


Ties between Pakistan's military intelligence agency and the Islamist militant Taliban have loosened in recent years.

Now the Taliban are back in power in Afghanistan, and facing an economic and humanitarian crisis due to a lack of money and international isolation, Qatar is arguably their most important foreign partner.

"We (the United States) don't need Pakistan as a conduit to the Taliban. Qatar is definitely playing that role now," said Lisa Curtis, director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at the Center for a New American Security think-tank.

Tensions have risen between the Taliban and Pakistan's military, which has lost several soldiers in attacks close to their mutual border. Pakistan wants the Taliban to do more to crack down on extremist groups and worries they will spread violence into Pakistan. That has begun to happen already.

Khan has been less critical of the Taliban over human rights than most foreign leaders.

CHINA

Khan consistently emphasised China's positive role in Pakistan and in the world at large.

At the same time, the $60-billion China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) which binds the neighbours together was actually conceptualised and launched under Pakistan's two established political parties, both of which are set to share power once he is gone.

Potential successor Sharif, the younger brother of three-time former prime minister Nawaz Sharif, struck deals with China directly as leader of the eastern province of Punjab, and his reputation for getting major infrastructure projects off the ground while avoiding political grandstanding could in fact be music to Beijing's ears.

INDIA

The nuclear-armed neighbours have fought three wars since independence in 1947, two of them over the disputed Muslim-majority territory of Kashmir.

As with Afghanistan, it is Pakistan's military that controls policy in the sensitive area, and tensions along the de facto border there are at their lowest level since 2021, thanks to a ceasefire.

But there have been no formal diplomatic talks between the rivals for years because of deep distrust over a range of issues including Khan's extreme criticism of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi for his handling of attacks on minority Muslims in India.

Karan Thapar, an Indian political commentator who has closely followed India-Pakistan ties, said the Pakistani military could put pressure on the new government in Islamabad to build on the successful ceasefire in Kashmir.

Pakistan's powerful army chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa said recently that his country was ready to move forward on Kashmir if India agrees.

The Sharif dynasty has been at the forefront of several dovish overtures towards India over the years.

UNITED STATES

U.S.-based South Asia experts said that Pakistan's political crisis is unlikely to be a priority for President Joe Biden, who is grappling with the war in Ukraine, unless it led to mass unrest or rising tensions with India.

"We have so many other fish to fry," said Robin Raphel, a former assistant secretary of state for South Asia who is a senior associate with the Center for Strategic and International Studies think-tank.

With the Pakistani military maintaining its behind-the-scenes control of foreign and security policies, Khan's political fate was not a major concern, according to some analysts.

"Since it's the military that calls the shots on the policies that the U.S. really cares about, i.e. Afghanistan, India and nuclear weapons, internal Pakistani political developments are largely irrelevant for the U.S.," said Curtis, who served as former U.S. President Donald Trump's National Security Council senior director for South Asia.

She added that Khan's visit to Moscow had been a "disaster" in terms of U.S. relations, and that a new government in Islamabad could at least help mend ties "to some degree".

Khan has blamed the United States for the current political crisis, saying that Washington wanted him removed because of the recent Moscow trip. Washington denies any role.

(Additional reporting and writing by Sanjeev Miglani; Editing by Mike Collett-White and Nick Macfie)