Russian war worsens fertilizer crunch, risking food supplies

By GEOFFREY KAVITI, CHINEDU ASADU and PAUL WISEMAN

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Farmers offload livestock manure from a truck, that will be used to fertilize crops due to the increased cost of fertilizer that they say they now can't afford to purchase, in Kiambu, near Nairobi, in Kenya Thursday, March 31, 2022. Russia's war in Ukraine has pushed up fertilizer prices that were already high, made scarce supplies rarer still and squeezed farmers, especially those in the developing world struggling to make a living. (AP Photo/Brian Inganga)


KIAMBU COUNTY, Kenya (AP) — Monica Kariuki is about ready to give up on farming. What is driving her off her 10 acres of land outside Nairobi isn’t bad weather, pests or blight — the traditional agricultural curses — but fertilizer: It costs too much.

Despite thousands of miles separating her from the battlefields of Ukraine, Kariuki and her cabbage, corn and spinach farm are indirect victims of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion. The war has pushed up the price of natural gas, a key ingredient in fertilizer, and has led to severe sanctions against Russia, a major exporter of fertilizer.

Kariuki used to spend 20,000 Kenyan shillings, or about $175, to fertilize her entire farm. Now, she would need to spend five times as much. Continuing to work the land, she said, would yield nothing but losses.

“I cannot continue with the farming business. I am quitting farming to try something else,” she said.

Higher fertilizer prices are making the world’s food supply more expensive and less abundant, as farmers skimp on nutrients for their crops and get lower yields. While the ripples will be felt by grocery shoppers in wealthy countries, the squeeze on food supplies will land hardest on families in poorer countries. It could hardly come at a worse time: The U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization said last week that its world food-price index in March reached the highest level since it started in 1990.

The fertilizer crunch threatens to further limit worldwide food supplies, already constrained by the disruption of crucial grain shipments from Ukraine and Russia. The loss of those affordable supplies of wheat, barley and other grains raises the prospect of food shortages and political instability in Middle Eastern, African and some Asian countries where millions rely on subsidized bread and cheap noodles.


“Food prices will skyrocket because farmers will have to make profit, so what happens to consumers?” said Uche Anyanwu, an agricultural expert at the University of Nigeria.

The aid group Action Aid warns that families in the Horn of Africa are already being driven “to the brink of survival.”

The U.N. says Russia is the world’s No. 1 exporter of nitrogen fertilizer and No. 2 in phosphorus and potassium fertilizers. Its ally Belarus, also contending with Western sanctions, is another major fertilizer producer.

Many developing countries — including Mongolia, Honduras, Cameroon, Ghana, Senegal, Mexico and Guatemala — rely on Russia for at least a fifth of their imports.

The conflict also has driven up the already-exorbitant price of natural gas, used to make nitrogen fertilizer. The result: European energy prices so high that some fertilizer companies “have closed their businesses and stopped operating their plants,” said David Laborde, a researcher at the International Food Policy Research Institute.

For corn and cabbage farmer Jackson Koeth, 55, of Eldoret in western Kenya, the conflict in Ukraine was distant and puzzling until he had to decide whether to go ahead with the planting season. Fertilizer prices had doubled from last year.

Koeth said he decided to keep planting but only on half the acreage of years past. Yet he doubts he can make a profit with fertilizer so costly.

Greek farmer Dimitris Filis, who grows olives, oranges and lemons, said “you have to search to find” ammonia nitrate and that the cost of fertilizing a 10-hectare (25-acre) olive grove has doubled to 560 euros ($310). While selling his wares at an Athens farm market, he said most farmers plan to skip fertilizing their olive and orange groves this year.

“Many people will not use fertilizers at all, and this as a result, lowers the quality of the production and the production itself, and slowly, slowly at one point, they won’t be able to farm their land because there will be no income,” Filis said.

In China, the price of potash — potassium-rich salt used as fertilizer — is up 86% from a year earlier. Nitrogen fertilizer prices have climbed 39% and phosphorus fertilizer is up 10%.

In the eastern Chinese city of Tai’an, the manager of a 35-family cooperative that raises wheat and corn said fertilizer prices have jumped 40% since the start of the year.

“We can hardly make any money,” said the manager, who would give only his surname, Zhao.

Terry Farms, which grows produce on 2,100 acres largely in Ventura, California, has seen prices of some fertilizer formulations double; others are up 20%. Shifting fertilizers is risky, vice president William Terry said, because cheaper versions might not give “the crop what it needs as a food source.″

As the growing season approaches in Maine, potato farmers are grappling with a 70% to 100% increase in fertilizer prices from last year, depending on the blend.

“I think it’s going to be a pretty expensive crop, no matter what you’re putting in the ground, from fertilizer to fuel, labor, electrical and everything else,” said Donald Flannery, executive director of the Maine Potato Board.

In Prudentopolis, a town in Brazil’s Parana state, farmer Edimilson Rickli showed off a warehouse that would normally be packed with fertilizer bags but has only enough to last a few more weeks. He’s worried that, with the war in Ukraine showing no sign of letting up, he’ll have to go without fertilizer when he plants wheat, barley and oats next month.

“The question is: Where Brazil is going to buy more fertilizer from?” he said. “We have to find other markets.″

Other countries are hoping to help fill the gaps. Nigeria, for example, opened Africa’s largest fertilizer factory last month, and the $2.5 billion plant has already shipped fertilizer to the United States, Brazil, India and Mexico.

India, meanwhile, is seeking more fertilizer imports from Israel, Oman, Canada and Saudi Arabia to make up for lost shipments from Russia and Belarus.

“If the supply shortage gets worse, we will produce less,” said Kishor Rungta of the nonprofit Fertiliser Association of India. “That’s why we need to look for options to get more fertilizers in the country.”

Agricultural firms are providing support for farmers, especially in Africa where poverty often limits access to vital farm inputs. In Kenya, Apollo Agriculture is helping farmers get fertilizer and access to finance.

“Some farmers are skipping the planting season and others are going into some other ventures such as buying goats to cope,” said Benjamin Njenga, co-founder of the firm. “So these support services go a long way for them.”

Governments are helping, too. The U.S. Department of Agriculture announced last month that it was issuing $250 million in grants to support U.S. fertilizer production. The Swiss government has released part of its nitrogen fertilizer reserves.

Still, there’s no easy answer to the double whammy of higher fertilizer prices and limited supplies. The next 12 to 18 months, food researcher LaBorde said, “will be difficult.″

The market already was “super, super tight” before the war, said Kathy Mathers of the Fertilizer Institute trade group.

“Unfortunately, in many cases, growers are just happy to get fertilizer at all,” she said.

___

Asadu reported from Lagos, Nigeria, and Wiseman from Washington. Contributing to this story were: Tatiana Pollastri in Sao Paulo, Brazil; Debora Alvares in Brasilia, Brazil; Sheikh Saaliq in New Delhi; Lefteris Pitarakis in Athens; Jamey Keaten in Geneva; Joe McDonald and Yu Bing in Beijing; Lisa Rathke in Marshfield, Vermont; Dave Kolpack in Fargo, North Dakota; Kathia Martínez in Panama City; Christoph Noelting in Frankfurt; Fabiola Sánchez in Mexico City; Veselin Toshkov in Sofia, Bulgaria; Tarik El-Barakah in Rabat, Morocco; Tassanee Vejpongsa and Elaine Kurtenbach in Bangkok; Ilan Ben Zion in Jerusalem; Edie Lederer at the United Nations; and Aya Batrawy in Dubai.

From art to advertising: The history of the poster

Even in ancient times, merchants listed their goods on stone plaques to attract customers. Centuries later, the first advertising posters were unveiled, as a new exhibition shows.


A man looking at the famous US army recruitment sign in Michigan, in 1940

Uncle Sam's intense gaze is inescapable in an image where his outstretched index finger conveys a clear message: "I Want You for the U.S. Army."

The 1917 poster reminded young men of their patriotic duty to fight for the homeland in World War I. Designed by New Yorker James Montgomery Flagg, who is said to have modeled Uncle Sam on his own face, the US Army also advertised with this poster during World War II — and still does to this day. The cult ad is world-famous.

So it's no coincidence that the Museum Folkwang in Essen in western Germany picked "We Want You!" as the title for its current exhibition on the history of posters, presenting designs derived from cartoons, illustrations and historical photographs from the 18th century up to present-day — along with perspectives for the future.

After all, according to curator Rene Grohnert, posters will always exist — even when they take on a digital form. He strongly believes in the saying, "A picture is worth a thousand words."


A United Colors of Benetton advertisement from 1989 was the work of Italian photographer and art director, Oliviero Toscani

Ancient stone tablet origins

The ancestors of the poster were stone tablets on which ancient Egyptians scratched symbols.

The Romans put up wooden plaques with public notices in busy squares, and in the Middle Ages poster-like notices would hang on market squares or in front of churches.

But the modern poster first appeared in the mid-15th century, with the invention of the printing press by Johannes Gutenberg.

Then around 1796, Bavarian musician and playwright Alois Senefelder invented lithography, a vital technology for modern poster design and a precursor to modern offset printing.

Inspired on a rainy day when observing how the image a leaf was outlined on a piece of limestone, the process he created allowed the reproduction of a drawn motif on a stone slab to be transferred onto paper.

From then on, Senefelder's invention enabled the mass reproduction of posters for everything from event promotion to politics.

German printer Ernst Litfass invented advertising columns in 1854

Poster artists in demand

Early poster design was initially managed by printers and lithographers. But they were unable to meet the growing quality demands of customers, leading an increasing number of artists to be hired to design posters as well.

French artist Jules Cheret became known as the father of the modern poster. He founded his own lithography workshop in 1866 and created around 1,200 posters in 40 years.

Equally well known was Cheret's compatriot, Henri de Toulouse-Lautrec, who wrote poster history with his artworks for the famous Parisian variety shows at the Moulin Rouge. He spent almost every evening capturing the energy of the extravagant nightlife in the Montmartre theater in his drawings.

Henri de Toulouse-Lautrec (l) redefined lithography and poster art in works advertising Paris' Moulin Rouge night club

In Germany, Art Nouveau motifs became popular around the turn of the century. One of the most famous posters of the era was one designed by Alfons Mucha for the play "Gismonda," starring then world-famous actress Sarah Bernhardt. All the publicly displayed copies of the poster were quickly stolen by art lovers.
The poster as advertising

Posters with elaborate designs by artists are still created for museums and theaters today but the focus of posters since the 1920s has been advertisement, with the brand and the product replacing lavish ornamentation, notes curator Rene Grohnert.

Throughout the 20th century, the poster kept evolving, with advertising influenced by the art movements of its time, from Bauhaus style to Art Deco.

10 ESSENTIAL FACTS ABOUT BAUHAUS
It started as an actual school
In 1919, Walter Gropius became the director of a new institution, the Staatliches Bauhaus, also simply known as the Bauhaus, which merged the former Grand Ducal School of Arts and Crafts and the Weimar Academy of Fine Art. Even though Gropius was an architect and the term Bauhaus literally translates as "construction house," the school of design did not have an architecture department until 1927.
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Some played with psychedelic motifs during the 1960s counterculture; others became even more provocative in the 1980s, advertising with AIDS patients.

But posters were not only designed to advertise goods but also political messages: The Nazis used them for propaganda purposes, as did the communist regimes of the Eastern bloc. The youth of the 1960s (and later generations) hung posters of the revolutionary Che Guevara on their walls. Other famous posters of the time spoke out against against nuclear weapons, the Vietnam War, pollution and overpopulation.

Mass media then changed the entire approach of advertising, with television bringing product advertising directly into people's living rooms.

The poster, however, remained. "It was then less to provide information than to remind people of something they had previously seen," says Grohnert.

Posters can still be seen on advertising pillars, invented back in 1854, though today these relics have been updated and now rotate in the 21st century with the posters illuminated from behind.

But the future looks different, says Grohnert. "The poster has been integrated into an overall concept," he says, noting how at a bus or train stop an illuminated advertising poster can be combined with information and "roof greening" to create "a piece of street furniture."

In the age of digitalization, the poster is far from old hat.

The poster exhibition "We Want You!" runs at the Folkwang Museum Essen until August 28, 2022.

ELECTION POSTERS: GERMAN POLITICS OVER THE YEARS
The 1940s — Reconstruction
After the Second World War, Germany lay in ruins. Many things had to be rebuilt — including the political party landscape. When the first Bundestag or Parliament was formed in 1949, none of the parties could secure a third of the public votes. Coalitions had to be formed. The issues, however, were similar: reconstruction, economic integration, and the desire for a united Germany.
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This article was translated from the German.

Indonesia: Thousands of students protest rumored election delay

President Joko Widodo had promised not to delay elections in order to hold on to power, but many say his statements don't convince. Monday's protests echoed those that ousted President Suharto in 1998.

Protesters stormed the parliament, demanding that the 2024 election dates be kept intact

Thousands of students in major cities across  Indonesia on Monday protested a rise in food prices and a possible extension of President Joko Widodo's term in office.

Wearing neon jackets and raising megaphones, the students rallied in South Sulawesi, West Java and the capital, Jakarta, following rumors that President Widodo could shift 2024 general elections in an attempt to hold on to power.

That would be against the country's two-term limit. Widodo is currently in the final years of a second term, before the next election, in 2024.

Students in Indonesia have previously led massive protests to ensure a democracy

Demonstrators chanted about protecting Indonesia's democracy and limiting soaring fuel and food prices.

''We demand that the lawmakers do not betray the country's constitution by amending it,'' one protest coordinator, identified as Kaharuddin, told The Associated Press. ''We want them to listen to people's aspirations.''

Police fired tear gas and water cannon at the protesters. 

Jakarta police said a university lecturer who was participating in the protest sustained "grave" injuries after a "nonstudent" group battered
and stomped on him. Six officers who tried to help the lecturer were also injured, according to police.

Avoiding a repeat of strongman rule

Monday's protests echoed those from almost two decades ago, when student-led demonstrations toppled the regime of President Suharto, who led for decades with an iron fist. He was ousted in 1998.

Widodo has high approval ratings, but many reject an illegal extension of his tenure

Unlike Suharto, Widodo has maintained some popularity, according to recent polls.

But "Jokowi," as the president is also known, has been heavily criticized for not speaking out strongly against rumors of a possible postponement of elections set for February 2024.

Powerful political figures, including two ministers, who publicly backed a delayed election have fueled rising tensions.

Widodo himself has publicly spoken out against the idea. He told his cabinet last week to focus on addressing the country's economic woes, stressing that "nobody should bring up a (presidential) term extension or election delay anymore.”

But there is still strong skepticism regarding the president's intentions.

Influential politicians publicly supported a postponement of the 2024 elections

Crowds of demonstrators storming the parliament building at Monday's protests said halting elections would threaten the country's democracy.

Indonesian police fired tear gas and deployed water cannons on the protesters. Reporters say rocks were thrown into the complex after nonstudent demonstrators joined the rally.

Lawmakers addressed the students, vowing to keep election dates intact.

sl/fb (AFP, AP, dpa, Reuters)

Egypt: Jailed pro-democracy activist receives UK citizenship

Alaa Abdel-Fattah's family hopes that his UK citizenship can secure his release from prison. The activist has spent much of the past decade behind bars, along with many other Egyptian political prisoners.

Alaa Abdel-Fattah is one of Egypt's most prominent activists

The Egyptian activist Alaa Abdel-Fattah, who rose to prominence during the 2011 revolution, has been given British citizenship, his family said on Monday.

Abdel-Fattah has been in prison for three and a half years and the move is seen as a means to pressure the Egyptian government to grant his release.

The activist began a hunger strike at the beginning of the Islamic holy month of Ramadan to protest the conditions in which he is being held.

"For two and a half years, he has been kept in a cell without sunlight, with no books, no exercise. His visitations have been cut to one family member, for 20 minutes a month, through glass, with not a moment of privacy or contact," his sisters said in a statement.

Who is Alaa Abdel-Fatah?

Abdel-Fattah has spent much of the past 10 years in prison. He had also been arrested under former President Hosni Mubarak — who was overthrown in the 2011 revolution — and Mohammed Morsi, who briefly served as president before he was ousted in 2013.

In December, the activist was sentenced to five years in prison after a court convicted him of spreading false news. Separate charges accuse the 40-year-old of misusing social media and being a member of a terrorist group.

Abdel-Fattah's family say he is being held in inhumane conditions in Cairo's Tora prison

His family and Egyptian lawyers said in 2021 that Abdel-Fattah had been tortured inside Cairo's Tora prison.

"This is a British citizen detained unlawfully, in appalling conditions, simply for exercising his basic rights to peaceful expression and association,'' Daniel Furner, one of the family lawyers, told the AP news agency.

Hope for release

Abdel-Fattah obtained British citizenship through his mother, Laila Soueif, who was born in London. She is also a professor of mathematics at Cairo University.

His sisters, Mona and Sanaa, were also given UK citizenship. They said in a statement that their brother has requested to speak with the family's lawyers in the UK "so that they can take all possible legal measures regarding not only the violations he has been subjected to, but all the crimes against humanity he has witnessed during his imprisonment."

The Egyptian government under President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi has released several political prisoners with dual citizenship in recent years after agreeing to give up their Egyptian citizenship.

But rights groups say about 60,000 political prisoners remain locked up in Egypt.

CRIMINAL CAPITALI$M

Wanted Wirecard executive Jan Marsalak reportedly hiding in Moscow

Ex-Wirecard manager Jan Marsalek could be living in Moscow, according to a German daily. Russia's secret service reportedly informed German authorities of his whereabouts in 2021.



Marsalek may live in Moscow, where he reportedly has ties to "paramilitary mercenaries"

The wanted ex-Wirecard executive Jan Marsalek went into hiding in Moscow and may still be living there today, according to a report shared Monday by the German daily Bild.

Marsalek moved into a "gated community" in Moscow "under the care" of the FSB, the Russian secret service, and could still live there today, the paper reported. Germany's Federal Intelligence Service (BND) is said to have known about his whereabouts since early 2021.

The international police organization Interpol is currently seeking Maralek's arrest for his role as an executive at Wirecard. The disgraced financial services company collapsed in a shocking fraud scandal in 2020.

More dirty dealings

In Moscow, Marsalek was involved in dealing the Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine and had connections to paramilitary mercenary forces, Bild reported.

In 2021, the FSB reportedly contacted their counterparts in Berlin to ask "if a meeting with Marsalek should take place." But the question went "unanswered," according to the report. The German government was also "informed" of the situation.

The Bavarian prosecution authorities, who are tasked with investigating those responsible for the company, which was based near Munich, were apparently not informed of the offer. They were instead given a vague reference to a building near a "long chaussee in Moscow" as Marsalek's possible hideout.

'Unparalleled' scandal

The former Wirecard board member went into hiding in 2020. He is wanted on an international arrest warrant for commercial fraud charges amounting to billions, among other financial and economic offenses. The main hearing against former Wirecard CEO Markus Braun, who was charged with fraud by German authorities earlier this year, is scheduled to begin at Munich Regional Court in the fall. Marsalek is considered to be Braun's right-hand man.

Once boasting a market capitalization of over €24 billion ($27 billion) — more than Germany's biggest lender, Deutsche Bank — at its peak in 2018, the formerly DAX-listed payment processor collapsed in June 2020 after admitting that €1.9 billion it had listed as assets likely didn't exist.

It was an "unparallelled" scandal in Germany's history, according to the then finance minister, Olaf Scholz, who is now chancellor.

Edited by: Hardy Graupner

Opinion: Germany needs a new business model

Germany's economic success is based largely on inflows of cheap energy. But the Ukraine war has put a sudden end to this. The rapid decarbonization of Europe's largest economy could be the solution, says Henrik Böhme.

Has Germany's business model run aground?

The first victim of war is the truth they say, and Russia's aggression against Ukraine has proven this once more. At the same time, war can also reveal truths that normally would remain hidden and undiscussed.

One tough truth about the German economy was laid bare by Martin Brudermüller in an interview with German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung recently. The head of the world's biggest chemical corporation, German-based BASF, said it was an undeniable fact that "Russian gas is the foundation of German industry's global competitiveness." When asked if Germany wasn't fueling Putin's war with its energy imports from Russia, he said a ban on those imports "will destroy the well-being of Germans."

What Brudermüller described as "a mainstay of Germany's economic strength," has been an essential part of the country's business model and has secured its place as one of the largest exporting nations in the world. The successful business models built by German companies over the past 20 years or so included importing energy below market prices and using it to develop competitive products.

DW business editor Henrik Böhme

Russia, China and the forces of globalization

In more recent years, China has also contributed significantly to the success story after German corporate heads jumped on the Chinese economic juggernaut much earlier than their rivals elsewhere in the world. By doing so, they were able to secure not only large segments of the Chinese market but at the same time access to China's rare earths and other valuable minerals, too. Small wonder that the German auto giant Volkswagen (VW), for example, currently sells about 40% of its annual production in China.

What's also come in handy for Germany was the worldwide drive for national economies to open themselves up to international competition under the banner of globalization. "Made in Germany" couldn't but shine in a global, free-market environment.

Cheap Russian energy and China's huge markets, coupled with liberalized trade and a strong domestic industry, was the perfect setting for the German economy to race ahead. The results are a massive foreign trade surplus, with exports far surpassing imports, and at the same time, precarious dependencies on Russia and China.

But what has long been a straight road to success for German businesses has suddenly turned into a slippery slope because of the brutal war in Ukraine. The COVID-19 pandemic already came as a sort of harbinger for what many believe is "the end of globalization."

Business leaders are beginning to think seriously about disentangling supply chains that have proven too complex in times of a global pandemic. In Germany, the absence of medical mask production opened the eyes of politicians and the public alike to the fact that essential infrastructure has been completely outsourced to other parts of the world.

"Reshoring" is likely to become the buzzword for the post-COVID era although bringing production home may prove a tall order for most industrialized countries.

'Bipolar' economic world order?

Now, the Ukraine war has added a new spin to the deglobalization story in Germany, heightening the national sense of urgency for the country to wean itself off Russian energy imports, in order not to fuel Putin's aggression any longer.

Newly emerging on the horizon, too, is the question of how to deal with China which is apparently choosing to back the Kremlin. Mind you, this is not happening out of a sudden love for Putin in Beijing, but a shrewd awareness on the part of the Chinese president that huge amounts of Russian energy and raw materials are suddenly up for grabs. What unites Putin and Xi, though, is their joint hatred for Western values such as democracy, freedom of speech, and the rule of law. 

So, is the world again splitting up into two antagonistic blocks, or as German economist Gabriel Felbermayr put it, are we witnessing "the end of 30 glorious years of globalization"? Are we headed for a world in which Europe and the United States will be leading the West, while Russia, China, and likely India, which is undecided yet, are joining forces in the Far East?

Will the multipolar world of globalization come tumbling down and make way for a new East-West standoff?

Such a 'bipolar world' would severely undermine the German business model, and there'd be need for a new one. What may help in this is German businesses' undeniable ability to adapt to the vagaries of economic life. Focusing on the opportunities opening up from the much-needed energy transformation and the decarbonization of German industry could pave the way toward the future. 

To begin with, Germany must finally get serious about becoming energy-self-sufficient because electricity from renewable sources and hydrogen could provide a competitive advantage.

Economy Minister Robert Habeck wants Germany to have carbon-free electricity within the next 13 years and has declared power generation from solar, wind and biomass to be of "overwhelming public interest." If achieved, it would be a huge leap forward and enable German industry to continue producing at competitive prices, while safeguarding the well-being of Germany in the future.

This opinion piece was first published in German. 

Russian nickel, palladium, 

chromium exports a headache 

for Germany

Russian gas and oil are by far the most significant exports Moscow sells to Germany. Yet other important raw materials are also under the spotlight because of the war in Ukraine.

Russian nickel is important to the German economy

Almost all the debate surrounding Germany's economic ties with Russia since the invasion of Ukraine has focused on gas and oil. With good reason — Germany buys more Russian oil and gas than any other European country, making energy Russia's most lucrative import to Germany by far.

However, many German companies rely on a steady supply of other Russian exports, particularly raw materials such as nickel, palladium, copper and chromium.

Nickel is used in stainless steelmaking but is also an important component for lithium-ion batteries which are needed to power electric cars. Palladium is also vital for carmakers, as it is a critical component in the production of catalytic converters, which clean exhaust fumes in petrol and hybrid vehicles.

In 2020, Russia was Germany's biggest provider of raw nickel, accounting for 39% of the country's supply according to the MIT Observatory of Economic Complexity, a trade tracker.

It also provided around 25% of German imports of palladium, and between 15% and 20% of the heavy metals chromium and cadmium, which have a range of industrial uses. Russia also accounted for 11% of Germany's refined copper imports in 2020, 10.9% of its platinum and 8.5% of its iron ore.

Nickel and Daimler

A recent study by the German Economic Institute (IW), a Cologne-based think-tank, identified several raw materials imported from Russia which would be difficult to replace for Germany. "New trade relations with alternative export nations for these raw materials are essential," the institute said in a statement.

Nickel is important for making lithium-ion batteries for electric cars

Nickel is particularly important to consider. Germany's second-biggest import partner for raw nickel in 2020 was the Netherlands at 29%. But Russia is the market leader, supplying around 20% of the world's purest form of the metal, known as class 1 nickel.

High grade nickel has been in increasingly short supply for a few years now. The boom in electric vehicle production around the world — which needs high-grade nickel for batteries — has seen demand surge.

Tesla CEO Elon Musk has frequently tweeted about the lack of nickel. "Nickel is the biggest challenge for high-volume, long-range batteries!" he wrote in July 2020. "Australia & Canada are doing pretty well. US nickel production is objectively very lame. Indonesia is great!"

Class 1 nickel prices had already doubled over the last two years but Russia's invasion of Ukraine prompted fears that Moscow could impose an export ban.  A trading frenzy in early March saw prices hit record highs, with the London Metal Exchange even suspending trading for a period, the first time it had taken such action in 37 years. Nickel prices have gone up 400% in 2022 alone.

Volkswagen — which has effectively staked its future on rapidly becoming an EV power — recently announced that it had struck an agreement with the Chinese companies Huayou Cobalt and Tsingshan Group for a joint venture to secure raw cobalt and nickel supply in Indonesia, one of the world's biggest producers.

Export bans, import bans

However, uncertainty over Russian raw materials will continue to stalk the market. Some analysts have predicted that the nickel crisis alone will add at least $1,000 (€919) to the costs of a new electric car for consumers.

The VDA, the trade body for German carmakers, says the war in Ukraine will lead to further disruption of vehicle production in Germany. "In the long term, the car industry is facing shortages and higher prices of raw materials," it said in a statement.

Not only carmakers are affected. In 2018, German chemicals giant BASF joined forces with Russia's Norilsk Nickel, the world's largest producer of refined nickel, for a deal which would see the Russian company supply BASF's new battery materials production facility in Finland with nickel and cobalt. Such deals are now being heavily scrutinized.

Norilsk is one of Russia's nickel-mining centers

Although Moscow did not put materials such as nickel on the export ban list it released in March, there remains a chance that sanctions either from Moscow or Brussels will end the flow of such raw materials to Europe.

On Friday, the EU announced import bans on several Russian products including coal, caviar, wood, rubber, cement and vodka. However, nickel and other commodities exported in high volume to countries such as Germany were left off the list.

Small potatoes compared to energy

Even if the sale of Russian nickel to Europe is not legally prohibited, the overwhelming pressure on German companies to cut business ties with Russia continues to mount in practically every sector.

Yet while myriad economic and business links between Germany and Russia die away and will continue to do so in the face of the outrage over what is happening in Ukraine, almost every scenario is dwarfed in significance by the possible consequences of an embargo on Russian oil and gas.

Many experts and business leaders have argued that Germany's economic prosperity of recent decades has largely been built on the cheap supply of Russian energy.

Ultimately, other German-Russian economic links are dwarfed by the energy question

BASF head Martin Brudermüller told the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung that a sudden ban on Russian oil or gas could lead to an economic crisis as bad as any in Germany since World War II, and that his company would have to stop production if natural gas supplies fell to less than half the current usage.

Some disagree with such strong assessments. A study by the German National Academy of Sciences, Leopoldina, said ending supply immediately would be "manageable."

The fact that something as stringent as an outright ban on Russian energy is being seriously debated does make one thing clear for any German business with ties to Russia, regardless of their nature: Nothing is off limits, regardless of how economically "critical" it may be.

Edited by: Hardy Graupner

ECOCIDE

Gas tank graveyard has Mexico City residents up in arms

Mexico City

Thousands of disused gas cylinders were made to sit outside down the sun at a former refinery in Mexico, producing a foul smell that neighbors say has made their lives a nightmare.

over every night, Cesar Rivera and his wife leave their apartment because the odor becomes too much, the 37-year-old web programmer told AFP.

“The smell is so strong at night so unbearable that it’s like the stove isn’t turned off properly,” he said.

The couple also fears that the liquefied petroleum gas seeping from the cylinders which are used by many households in Mexico City — will cause an explosion or make them sick.

“The building administration has asked us not to smoke or use the stove burners when the smell’s stronger. It has completely changed our lives,” said Rivera.

“It’s a time bomb,” he added.

Aerial images were taken by AFP show what looks like a huge graveyard in the west of the capital, surrounded by residential districts.

But instead of human remains the disused refinery of state-owned oil giant Pemex has become the resting place of thousands of old multicolored gas cylinders.

Rivera said that he and his wife had suffered due to the smell for eight months, but only discovered in January what the source was.

An aerial view of the former 18 de Marzo refinery in Mexico City where thousands of disused gas cylinders are stored CLAUDIO CRUZ AFP

– ‘Vomiting, headaches –

LP gas, made up mainly of butane and propane, is odorless so producers add mercaptan to give it a nauseating smell that allows it to be detected.

Although “the gases produced by its combustion are not toxic or carcinogenic” a leak can cause a build-up that “can be explosive and can suffocate people in small spaces,” Mexico’s National Commission for the Efficient Use of Energy says on its website.

The tanks were stored at the old refinery by the state firm Gas Bienestar, which was created in 2021 to expand competition in the sector, after exchanging old or damaged cylinders free of charge for new ones.

In January, the Mexico City authorities said in a statement that Pemex was in the process of removing them.

Contacted by AFP, the company said it was unable to give an interview about the matter.

Mexican civil protection authorities did not respond to a request for information about the risks posed by the cylinders.

According to Ricardo Torres, an expert at the National Autonomous University of Mexico, LP contributes to the formation of ozone, which at ground level is a harmful pollutant for people and the environment.

Firefighters at a nearby station said they receive daily reports of gas leaks, when in fact the odor comes from the disused tanks.

“We’ve gone to the former refinery, but they don’t see us,” says station chief Cesar Suarez.

Juan Macias, who runs a carpentry workshop next door to the old refinery, said that he now closes the windows in the afternoon despite the stifling heat.

“We feel like vomiting and have really bad headaches,” he said.

“The authorities say there’s nothing to worry about,” the 44-year-old added.

“But everyone here thinks there’s some danger, so we always take care not to light anything when it smells a lot for fear of an explosion,” he said.

Study: Africa cyclones exacerbated by climate change

Wanjohi Kabukuru
The Associated Press

Monday, April 11, 2022


A house lays in ruins in Mananjary, Madagascar, Thursday, Feb. 10, 2022.

 (AP Photo/Viviene Rakotoarivony)

MOMBASA, KENYA -- Extreme rainfall in southeast Africa has become heavier and more likely to occur during cyclones because of climate change, according to a new analysis released Monday by an international team of weather scientists.

Multiple tropical storms that pummeled Madagascar, Malawi and Mozambique earlier this year were analyzed by the World Weather Attribution group, who determined that the storms were made worse by the increase in global temperatures. In just six weeks between January and March the region saw a record three tropical cyclones and two tropical storms make landfall. The heavy rains, storm surges and floods left more than 230 people dead and displaced hundreds of thousands across the region.

The countries remain vulnerable to devastating weather this year, with cyclone season set to end in May.


A man caries belongings from his house destroyed by tropical storm Ana in Antananarivo, Madagascar, Jan. 26, 2022. (AP Photo/Alexander Joe, file)

The team of climate scientists used established peer-reviewed methods, including weather observations and computer simulations, to model scenarios using both preindustrial global temperatures and today's - which is approximately 1.2 degrees Celsius (2.2 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer. The difference between the models determined the impact of human-caused global warming.

Sarah Kew, from the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute and participated in the study, said they investigated the influence of climate change using 34 prediction models but data gaps made it difficult to determine the full impact of increasing greenhouse gas emissions.

“While our analysis clearly shows that climate change made the storms more damaging, our ability to establish precisely by how much was hampered by inconsistent data and lack of weather observations,” said Dr. Kew. “This would also help to improve forecasts of extreme weather events and their impacts.”

 

 Heavy rain falls during Cyclone Gombe in Nampula Province, Mozambique, March 12, 2022. 

In both Madagascar and Malawi, the study was contrained by a lack of weather stations with suitable data. And of the 23 weather stations in the affected regions of Mozambique, only four had complete records dating back to 1981.

“Strengthening scientific resources in Africa and other parts of the global south is key to help us better understand extreme weather events fueled by climate change, to prepare vulnerable people and infrastructure to better cope with them,” Dr. Izidine Pinto, a climate system analyst at the University of Cape Town, said.

The 33-page study was conducted by 22 researchers, including scientists from universities and meteorological agencies in Madagascar, Mozambique, France, the Netherlands, New Zealand, South Africa, the UK and the US.

Associated Press climate and environmental coverage receives support from several private foundations. See more about AP's climate initiative here. The AP is solely responsible for all content.

'Why not us?': Latinos stuck at Mexico border as Ukrainians enter US

Thousands of Latino refugees arrive in the Mexican city of Tijuana each year, dreaming of one day crossing the border that separates them from the United States.

© Patrick T. FALLON The Movimiento Juventud 2000 shelter near the US-Mexico border lies not far from Unidad Deportiva Benito Juarez, which has become the staging post for thousands of Ukrainians hoping to enter the United States after fleeing their war-torn country

But as Ukrainians who fled Russia's invasion have recently begun to cross the same frontier with little delay, many Latinos stuck waiting for months are wondering why they are not being treated the same.

"Why are we -- neighbors of the United States -- not given the same opportunity to seek asylum? We came here fleeing almost the same thing," said L., a 44-year-old Mexican man.

Because of the war raging in their homeland, Ukrainians have been granted special humanitarian permission to enter the United States. Washington said last month it would take in up to 100,000 refugees

.

© Patrick T. FALLON Young Haitian, Mexican and Central American children at the Movimiento Juventud 2000 shelter in Tijuana, Mexico do not have any dedicated space and few toys and materials

Thousands of Ukrainians have since flown to Tijuana to cross the land border to the United States -- easier than getting the visa required to fly direct.

Volunteers in Tijuana and the neighboring US town of San Ysidro say that, on average, new Ukrainian arrivals wait just two or three days before crossing, using an entrance available only to them.

"I think we all deserve a chance," L.'s wife said, with tears welling up in her eyes.

The couple fled their central Mexican hometown of Irapuato with their three children, carrying only a change of clothes, after suspected cartel members torched their home and the bakery where they made their living.

Staring down at the floor and nervously clutching a piece of paper in her trembling hands, the woman spoke to AFP hesitantly, declining to give her name for fear of something happening to her or her family.

© Patrick T. FALLON At Movimiento Juventud 2000, some families have been waiting as long as six months for a change in border restrictions that would allow them to apply for asylum

"We came here not by choice but out of necessity -- we have endured a lot of violence," she said.

"We want to give them a better life," she added, pointing to her children, who are living in one of several tents at the Movimiento Juventud 2000 shelter.

The family are just three blocks from Unidad Deportiva Benito Juarez, which has become the staging post for thousands of Ukrainians.

"Why don't they give us a chance?" she asked.

- 'Almost a war' -

The contrast between the two shelters could hardly be more stark.

At Movimiento Juventud 2000, the atmosphere is heavy with frustration and sadness, while at Benito Juarez, relief and hope abound.

Volunteers at the Ukrainian shelter have created a database to keep up with the rapid turnover of asylum seekers.

By Saturday afternoon, more than 2,600 Ukrainians had registered.

At Movimiento Juventud 2000, some families have been waiting as long as six months for a change in border restrictions that would allow them to apply for asylum.

R., who also did not want to give her full name, is from Honduras, and has five children aged between one and nine. She said they were forced to leave their city eight years ago when her journalist husband was attacked.

They fled to Guatemala, where her husband received medical treatment. But they realized they could not remain when one of the doctors who treated him was murdered.

Another attempt to rebuild their lives in Mexico was scuppered when a flood destroyed their new home, and so the family headed to the US border, encouraged by the election of Democratic President Joe Biden.

"We have been applying for asylum since we lived in Guatemala, but a long time has passed and we are still waiting," she said, sitting on a plastic bucket next to the tent in which the whole family has slept for months.

The youngest of her babies learnt to walk between tents.

Like the Ukrainians, "we also came fleeing," she said.

"It's different, but it's almost a war with the gangs... we can't go back."

- 'Suffered' -

Thanks to donations from both sides of the border, Ukrainian volunteers installed a children's play area at their shelter.

Toys, crayons and books are available, with a new crate of plastic yellow ducks arriving Saturday.

Nearby, young Haitian, Mexican and Central American children do not have any dedicated space and few materials, although they are entertained a couple of times each week by UNICEF workers and individual volunteers.

Teacher Nelly Cantu, who is part of that effort, says she was approached about helping at the Ukrainian shelter, but decided to stay put.

"Besides the language barrier, I preferred to stay here because the children need me. They have suffered a lot, and have less support. This is also a war," she said.

Some 125 people, mainly from Haiti and Central America, live in the shelter staffed by six people, said its director Jose Maria Garcia.

"We try to explain to them that they have to be patient," Garcia said.

Pregnancy trap for workers in controversial Japan scheme

Tomohiro OSAKI
Mon, 11 April 2022


Japan's "technical intern" programme is a valuable source of labour given Japan's ageing population and small pool of migrant workers, but the scheme has been dogged by allegations of discrimination and physical abuse 

(AFP/Charly TRIBALLEAU)


When Vanessa, a worker with Japan's "technical intern" programme, told her supervisors she was pregnant, she says they first suggested an abortion and then pressured her to quit.

It's an example, activists say, of the abuses faced by vulnerable workers in a controversial programme that helps Japan meet its labour needs.

The programme, which had around 275,000 workers from countries including China and Vietnam last year, is supposed to give participants specialised experience that will be of use in their home country.

It's a valuable source of labour given Japan's ageing population and small pool of migrant workers, but the scheme has been dogged by allegations of discrimination and physical abuse.

And female technical interns can face particular pressure around pregnancy.

Vanessa, who asked to be identified by her first name only, was working in a care home in southern Japan's Fukuoka when she discovered she was pregnant, and hoped to return to work after the birth.

Instead, the 25-year-old Filipina says bosses pushed her and her partner for an abortion despite terminations being both taboo and a crime in her deeply Catholic homeland.

"I thought, 'how dare (they),'". "Having an abortion is a mother's choice, not someone else's," she told AFP.

When she refused to have an abortion, her supervisors forced her to quit.

Japan's health ministry says 637 technical interns quit because of pregnancy or childbirth between 2017 and 2020, including 47 who said they wished to continue the programme.

But advocates say that is likely the "tip of the iceberg", and no statistics capture how many others have been pressured to avoid or end pregnancies.

- Interchangeable, cheap labour -

"Most technical interns are of reproductive age... but the idea of them getting pregnant during their stay in Japan is often considered out of the question," said Masako Tanaka, a Sophia University professor who studies the reproductive rights of migrant women.

Technical interns are covered by Japanese laws banning harassment or discrimination based on pregnancy.

But "maternity harassment" remains a problem for Japanese women, and foreign technical interns are often even more vulnerable.

Reports of pregnancy-based discrimination in 2019 prompted Japan's immigration agency to remind employers about the rights of interns.

"We understand that it's entirely possible that technical interns, as human beings, get pregnant and give birth, and they shouldn't suffer detrimental treatment for that," an immigration agency official told AFP.

Hiroki Ishiguro, a lawyer who has represented technical interns, says employers often consider them interchangeable cheap labour.

"For some employers, it's easier to just send them back home and have them replaced with entirely new trainees, rather than go through these extra burdens (to accommodate pregnancy)," he told AFP.

Now back in the Philippines, Vanessa says she was told her pregnancy would give fellow Filipina trainees a bad reputation.

They said "because of my situation... the 'value' of Filipino trainees will decrease," she recalled.

- 'I'm sorry you two' -

Financial pressures, including debt from recruitment fees and the needs of family, also weigh on interns like Le Thi Thuy Linh, a Vietnamese worker on a farm in southern Japan's Kumamoto who found out she was pregnant in July 2020.

She feared her family back home would be "destroyed financially" if she was deported over the pregnancy, said Ishiguro, who is representing Linh.

She hid the pregnancy from her employer and sought a termination.

But abortion pills are not approved in Japan, where surgical terminations typically cost upwards of 100,000 yen ($815), and some interns fear clinics could reveal the procedure to their employers.

That leaves some women seeking unauthorised abortion pills -- a "very risky act that could see them charged with foeticide," Tanaka said.

Linh took abortion pills that she got over the internet soon after she discovered her pregnancy in July, but to no avail.

Her employer began to suspect the pregnancy, though Linh denied it, and warned her of "difficulties" if she gave birth and raised a child, Ishiguro said.

In November, she gave birth prematurely, alone and at home, to stillborn twin boys.

Exhausted, she wrapped them in a towel and placed them in a cardboard box in her room, tucking a note inside: "I'm sorry you two."

She sought help the following day from a doctor, who reported her to authorities. In January, she received a three-month suspended sentence for having "abandoned" her babies' bodies. She is appealing.

Vanessa's story ended differently -- she gave birth to her son in the Philippines, but still hopes to return to Japan.

"I want to prove that it's possible for a pregnant trainee to give birth in her country and go back to Japan to finish her contract," she said.