U SAY JUMBO I SAY SHRIMP

Bank of Canada Delivers Jumbo Rate Hike With More to Come




Erik Hertzberg
Wed, April 13, 2022, 10:50 AM

(Bloomberg) -- The Bank of Canada raised its policy interest rate by half a percentage point in its biggest hike in 22 years, and said rates are poised to move significantly higher as it aggressively wrestles inflation down from a three-decade high.

Policymakers led by Governor Tiff Macklem increased the central bank’s overnight benchmark to 1% on Wednesday. Macklem said he expects rates will return to what they consider the “neutral range” of 2% and 3%, with policy makers prepared to move “forcefully” if needed.

The bank also said it will stop purchasing government bonds later this month to start shrinking its balance sheet, another form of stimulus withdrawal.

“The economy can handle higher interest rates, and they are needed,” Macklem said at a news conference in Ottawa.

Short-term bonds fell after the report, pushing Canada’s benchmark two-year yield to as high as 2.346%, before reversing those losses. The loonie strengthened, however, gaining 0.4% to C$1.2593 per U.S. dollar at 12:29 p.m. in Toronto trading.

The policy actions mark an acceleration of what’s expected to be one of the most aggressive monetary tightening campaigns ever by the Bank of Canada, a tacit recognition from the central bank that it needs to quickly exit from ultra-loose policy before inflation becomes sticky.

“There is an increasing risk that expectations of elevated inflation could become entrenched,” officials said in the rate statement, adding the bank will “use its monetary tools to return inflation to target and keep inflation expectations well-anchored.”

In what policymakers described as a “substantial upward revision,” inflation is now seen averaging near 6% in the first half of 2022, before easing to about 2.5% in the second half of next year and to around its 2% target by the end of 2024.

Inflation is projected to average 5.3% in 2022, versus forecasts in January of 4.2%. Price growth will slow to 2.8% on average in 2023, versus previous forecasts of 2.3%.

“This isn’t the last 50+ move and I’d expect another in June,” Derek Holt, head of capital markets economics at Bank of Nova Scotia, said by email.

Wednesday’s 50-basis-point hike was anticipated by 25 of 30 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, with markets pricing in about a 70% chance of an increase of that size. Investors are betting the central bank will continue hiking borrowing costs in coming months until the policy rate rises to as high as 3% by this time next year.

The Bank of Canada also provided some details of its quantitative tightening plan on Wednesday. The bank no longer plans to replace federal bonds as they roll off their balance sheet starting April 25. Over the next 12 months, about a quarter of the net C$350 billion ($275 billion) in government debt acquired during the pandemic will mature, pushing up yields, and complementing the increase in the policy rate.

What Bloomberg Economics Says...

“The degree to which the start of quantitative tightening later in April will take the place of rate hikes is a question Governor Tiff Macklem did not clearly address in the press conference, reiterating language in the statement that QT would ‘complement’ rate hikes.”

-- Andrew Husby, economist

Despite the hawkish policy statement, there are some relatively optimistic assumptions weaved throughout the decision. Supply is seen jumping next year to meet strong demand as Covid-19 containment measures are lifted and global disruptions ease.

Officials are also assuming Canada’s economy won’t be negatively impacted by the Ukraine crisis thanks to the nation’s commodities sector, while global inflationary pressures are seen eventually abating. If the latter assumption fails to materialize, the rate-hike path would need to be more aggressive.

On the other hand, the central bank also raised by 25 basis points its estimate for its neutral rate to around 2.5%, which gives it more scope to hike.

The jumbo rate hike is the first by a Group of Seven central bank since the pandemic, but not the first on Wednesday.

New Zealand’s central bank lifted its official cash rate by half a percentage point to 1.5% earlier in the day. A hawkish pivot is also expected in the U.S., where Chairman Jerome Powell and other policy makers have put a half-point hike on the table for the Federal Reserve’s meeting in May.

(Minor updates throughout.)

Most Read from Bloomberg Businessweek

CANADA FX DEBT-Canadian dollar rallies on rare half-point rate hikeFergal Smith

Wed, April 13, 2022, 

(Adds strategist quotes and details throughout; updates prices) 

*Canadian dollar strengthens 0.6% against the greenback 

* Bank of Canada raises key interest rate to 1% 

* Price of U.S. oil climbs 3.2%

 * Canadian bond yields ease across curve

 By Fergal Smith 

TORONTO, April 13 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar strengthened against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday, recovering from its lowest level in nearly four weeks, as oil prices climbed and the Bank of Canada announced its biggest single interest rate hike in more than two decades. The central bank raised its benchmark overnight rate to 1% from 0.5% and said it would allow government bonds it amassed during the COVID-19 pandemic to roll off as they mature from April 25, beginning what is known as quantitative tightening. The BoC last hiked by half a percentage point in May 2000, favoring instead quarter-point increments. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand also hiked by half a percentage point on Wednesday as central banks globally move to tackle runaway inflation. "Today's 50 basis point rate hike by the Bank of Canada, while expected, still caused a bit of loonie appreciation," said Greg Anderson, global head of foreign exchange strategy at BMO Capital Markets. "People who would otherwise be buying the loonie on the back of rising oil prices and also recovering equities, those people were sidelined by the event risk and now it is over they have come in to add to loonie longs." U.S. shares rose, helped by a rebound in growth stocks on falling bond yields, while the price of oil, one of Canada's major exports, was up 3.2% at $103.86 as investors grew more discouraged about peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. The Canadian dollar was trading 0.6% higher at 1.2570 to the greenback, or 79.55 U.S. cents, rebounding from its weakest intraday level since March 17 at 1.2676. Canadian government bond yields were lower across the curve, tracking the move in U.S. Treasuries. The 10-year eased 2.7 basis points to 2.619%, after touching on Tuesday its highest intraday level in more than eight years at 2.735%. (Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Will Dunham and Diane Craft)

CANADA STOCKS-Toronto stocks rise after Bank of Canada hikes rates as expected

April 13 (Reuters) - Canada's top share index rose on Wednesday, boosted by energy and material stocks, as the Bank of Canada raised interest rates by 50 basis points in a widely anticipated move to combat surging inflation.

After opening up more than 0.4%, the S&P/TSX composite index pared some gains in the wake of the decision. It was up 0.14% at 21,745.07 by 10:11 a.m. ET (1411 GMT).

The central bank raised rates by half a percentage point to 1%, its biggest single move in two decades, and promised more hikes as inflation expectations soar, partly due to the war in Ukraine.

It also said it would allow government bonds it amassed during the COVID-19 pandemic to roll off as they mature, beginning what is known as quantitative tightening.

"In terms of actions and the commentary, it was about as close to expectations as one can possibly imagine," said Doug Porter, chief economist at BMO Capital Markets.

"I think the more interesting question now is what does the bank do next. And it certainly looks like there's a solid possibility that they follow this up with another 50 basis point increase in June."

While most stock markets are grappling with a surge in inflation and a possible economic slowdown, the TSX index hit a record high just last week. It has climbed 2.9% this year, among the few regional equity markets holding on to gains, as surging commodity prices boost mining and energy shares.

The energy sector gained 0.6% as prices of crude, one of the country's major exports, rose more than 2% after Moscow said that peace talks with Ukraine had hit a dead end, fueling supply concerns.

The materials sector, which includes precious and base metals miners and fertilizer companies, added 1% as gold prices hit a one-month high.

Heavily weighted financial stocks slipped 0.9% to hit an over three-month low. The declines came as Wall Street peers took a hit from JPMorgan Chase & Co reporting a quarterly profit slump.

(Reporting by Sruthi Shankar in Bengaluru and Allison Lampert in Toronto; Editing by Amy Caren Daniel)

China Hesitates on Bailing Out Sri Lanka, Pakistan as Debt Soars

Bloomberg News
Wed, April 13, 2022

(Bloomberg) -- Over the past few years, the U.S. has accused China of using “debt diplomacy” to make developing nations across the world more dependent on Beijing.

Yet the cases of Sri Lanka and Pakistan -- both friends of China facing dire financial situations as inflation soars -- show that President Xi Jinping’s government is becoming more reluctant to pull out the checkbook. China still hasn’t made good on a pledge to re-issue loans totaling $4 billion that Pakistan repaid in late March, and it hasn’t responded to Sri Lanka’s pleas for $2.5 billion in credit support.

While China has pledged to help both countries, the more cautious approach reflects both a refining of Xi’s signature Belt and Road Initiative as well as a hesitancy to be seen interfering in messy domestic political situations. Pakistan got a new prime minister on Monday after parliament booted out former cricket star Imran Khan, and Sri Lanka’s leader is facing pressure from protesters to step down.

“Beijing has for the past couple of years been rethinking its external lending because their banks realized they were carrying a lot of debt with countries whose prospects of paying back were quite limited,” said Raffaello Pantucci, a senior fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University. “This came on top of a tightening economic situation at home which also required a lot of spending, so there was less appetite to just throw money around wantonly.”

China is currently facing its own economic troubles, with lockdowns to contain the country’s worst Covid outbreak since early 2020 shutting down the technology and financial hubs of Shanghai and Shenzhen. Premier Li Keqiang on Monday told local authorities they should “add a sense of urgency” when implementing policies as analysts warn the official growth target of a 5.5% is now in jeopardy.

China has become the world’s largest government creditor over the past decade, with its state-owned policy banks lending more to developing countries than the International Monetary Fund or the World Bank in some recent years. The opacity around the terms and scale of some of that lending has been criticized, especially as the pandemic exacerbates debt problems in poorer countries.

Sri Lanka’s top diplomat in Beijing this week said he was “very confident” that China will come through with credit support, including $1 billion for the country to repay existing Chinese loans due in July. In an interview with Bloomberg, Ambassador Palitha Kohona said the process often takes months and he didn’t see any delay.

“Given the current circumstances, there aren’t that many countries that can step out to the pitch and do something,” he said. “China is one of those countries that can do something very quickly.”

Still, China’s role in helping to resolve ongoing crises in South Asia may be limited despite its status as a major creditor. A Shanghai-based scholar who researches China’s overseas lending said new credit lines are harder to approve as authorities emphasize risk management at financial institutions including policy banks. The scholar asked not to be named due to rules for speaking with the media.

‘Small But Beautiful’

Xi highlighted the importance of a more cautious approach at a high-level Belt and Road symposium in November. “It is necessary to implement risk prevention and control systems,” Xi said. He called on participants to make “small but beautiful” projects a priority for foreign cooperation and “avoid dangerous and chaotic places.”

Earlier this month, Jin Liqun, president of the China-backed Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, encouraged Sri Lanka to turn to the IMF for help in a meeting with Kohona.

China’s development banks are acting to preserve returns and it “would be difficult for them to easily accede to Sri Lanka’s requests for deferrals,” said Matthew Mingey, a senior analyst at Rhodium Group’s China Macro & Policy team who researches economic diplomacy.

‘Sinking Ships’

“Credit conditions back in China aren’t making things any easier for them,” he added. “Ultimately, Sri Lanka needs the IMF.”

Sri Lanka said Tuesday it would expedite talks with the IMF after it halted payments on foreign debt to preserve dollars for essential food and fuel imports. Pakistan’s new government also plans to work with the IMF to stabilize the economy, according to Miftah Ismail, a former finance minister and a senior ruling party leader.

China’s ability to assist either country with a balance-of-payments crisis is limited, particularly as Beijing’s financial assistance is almost always tied to specific projects, said Muttukrishna Sarvananthan, principle researcher at the Point Pedro Institute of Development in Sri Lanka. China’s policy of non-interference in internal affairs prevents it from offering the type of advice needed for countries to emerge out of a financial crisis, he added.

“Even the IMF appears to be moving very slowly -- if not abandoning -- the requests of both Pakistan and Sri Lanka for their assistance,” Sarvananthan said. “Which sane bilateral donor country or international financial institution would pour money into sinking ships in both Pakistan and Sri Lanka.”

CHILD LABOR USA

Amazon plans high school recruitment push amid shortage of workers: report

Amazon reportedly plans to hire graduate high school students to its warehouses because it struggles with other companies for workers in a very tight labor market.

The e-commerce giant will launch a recruitment push next month – company representatives are ready to promote Amazon’s perks and benefits in schools across the US and Canada. The push comes as the Coalition of Allies claims that Amazon has a poor workplace safety record, and Amazon is working to improve it, the Post said in a statement.

The company’s high school recruiting efforts include appearances by Amazon recruiters over hundreds of high school career days, and an emphasis on college tuition support for workers Information Reported to the person who described the project.

Amazon and other companies are looking to increase recruitment as the economy reopens during the COVID-19 epidemic. But tight labor conditions complicate the task, with US unemployment at just 3.6%, according to recent jobs data.

In March, there were more than 5 million job openings available to fill roles.

Amazon is competing with big-box retailers such as Walmart and Target, who are increasing benefits to attract new workers.Amazon employs more than 1.6 million people worldwide.AFP by Getty Images

Amazon representatives did not immediately return a request for comment on the recruitment drive. But a company official confirmed the plans in a statement to The Information.

“We are always looking for good employees and [we] We are proud to be the employer of choice for graduating high school students, ”Amazon spokeswoman Lisa Campos told Outlet.

The high school recruitment drive is the largest of its kind for Amazon – which has paused similar efforts over the past two years due to safety concerns during the COVID-19 epidemic.

Amazon hinted at the need to hire more workers in its fourth-quarter earnings release in February, with CEO Andy Jassi forecasting the company’s “high costs from labor supply shortages and inflationary pressures” in the 2022 holiday season. 

.

Amazon is facing increasing pressure on its workplace practices.

AFP by Getty Images

The latest recruitment drive unfolds as Amazon faces mounting pressure to improve its work habits. Earlier this month, workers at the Amazon warehouse in Staten Island became the first in the company’s history after a long organizational drive at the facility.

The push for workers was successful despite strong opposition from Amazon, which called for the cancellation of the election. The effort garnered the support of President Biden, who warned “Amazon, here we come” while supporting the organizers.

Meanwhile, injury rates at Amazon warehouses jumped 20% in 2021 – despite pledges by company executives to improve safety measures at facilities. According to the Strategic Organizing Center, Amazon accounts for roughly half of all warehouse injuries in the US.

The company has hired tens of thousands of people to meet the unexpected demand from COVID-19, Amazon.com said in a statement.

“Like other companies in the industry, we have seen an increase in recordable injuries at this time from 2020 to 2021 because we have trained many new people – however, compared to 2021 to 2019, our recordable injury rate is down 13% year over year,” an Amazon spokesperson Said Kelly Nantel.

Amazon employs more than 1.6 million people worldwide – including about 750,000 hourly workers in the US. Last month, the company revealed that it has partnered with more than 140 colleges to offer fully-funded college tuition to its hourly employees.

The company aims to persuade hikers to work in their warehouses during the summer break – then use the benefits of graduation even if they don’t expect to get into college.

The e-commerce firm raised its average hourly wage for warehouse workers to $ 18 last fall. Other benefits for full-time employees include a 401 (k) with medical, dental and vision coverage and 50% company adjustment.

Mexican truckers block key U.S. border crossings in protest of Texas governor's inspection mandate

Peter Weber, Senior editor
Tue, April 12, 2022

El Paso border crossing Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc/Getty Images

After Texas Gov. Greg Abbott (R) ordered state troopers last week to begin inspecting commercial trucks bringing produce and other goods into the state from Mexico, a job already performed by federal Customs and Border Enforcement agents, truck traffic backed up for miles as the wait to cross the border jumped significantly, The Texas Tribune reported Monday.

At times, the Tribune reports, "troopers appear to be checking every commercial vehicle that crosses select international bridges, with each inspection taking between 45 minutes and an hour." Mexican truckers have blocked traffic at key border crossings in protest, making the wait time even longer.

"The bridge connecting Pharr and Reynosa is the busiest trade crossing in the Rio Grande Valley and handles the majority of the produce that crosses into the U.S. from Mexico, including avocados, broccoli, peppers, strawberries, and tomatoes," the Tribune reports. "International bridges elsewhere in the Valley ... have also seen delays, with many commercial products produced in Mexico — like electronics, vehicle parts, and medical instruments — also held up."

Abbott said he was ordering the Department of Public Safety to inspect trucks in response to the Biden administration's phase-out of using Title 42, a temporary public health measure, to immediately deport Central American migrants to Mexico. Drug cartels use commercial trucks to smuggle people and drugs into the U.S., Abbott said.

Truckers told Reynosa's El Mañana newspaper they had waited there or four days at the border bridge and were running out of fuel. "We are losing just as much as them," one trucker said. "When they start needing more produce, the prices are going to go up."

Lawmakers and officials along the border said Abbott's order was hurting business. "There are security issues, but that's why our federal partners are there," Teclo Garcia, economic development director for Laredo, told the Tribune. "The real impact is going to be in the supply chain, which is already strained, and the consumer."

"Many of my constituents are asking 'Why are we being punished?' The Valley supports border security, but this doesn't seem to have much or anything to do with border security," state Sen. Juan "Chuy" Hinojosa (D) said Monday. "This is hurting people in their pocketbook." Abbott's office didn't respond to the Tribune's request for comment.

Trucker protests expand at U.S.-Mexico border over lengthy wait times


Mexican truck drivers protest truck inspections imposed by 

Texas Governor Greg Abbott, in Ciudad Juarez

Tue, April 12, 2022
By Lizbeth Diaz and Ted Hesson

MEXICO CITY (Reuters) -Mexican truck drivers blockaded bridges at the U.S. border for a second day on Tuesday to protest an order by the Texas governor meant to increase safety inspections that has snarled traffic and led business groups to warn of supply chain disruptions.

Mexico's government said in a statement it "rejects" the inspections imposed by Texas, estimating that two-thirds of normal trade was being held up and costing "significant revenue" for both U.S. and Mexican businesses.

The slowdowns began after Abbott, a Republican, ordered officials last week to conduct vehicle safety inspections at entry ports to uncover smuggling of people and contraband.

"Yesterday it took me 17 hours to cross into the United States and return," said Raymundo Galicia, a Mexican driver protesting at the Santa Teresa bridge connecting San Jeronimo, Chihuahua, to Santa Teresa, New Mexico.

The bridge is the third in the bustling Ciudad Juarez-El Paso area to be blockaded by drivers who have seen their pay plummet since lengthy wait times began last week.

Traffic at a fourth bridge connecting Reynosa to Pharr, Texas, was also halted on Tuesday by drivers who parked their trucks and began barbecuing on the Mexican side of the port of entry, according to photos sent to Reuters.

"I get paid the same whether it takes me an hour or ten hours to cross, so this is affecting us a lot," Galicia said, noting he and his co-workers would target more bridges if delays continued.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) said in a statement the long waits were due to "additional and unnecessary inspections" ordered by Abbott and were causing "critical impacts to an already-strained supply chain."

The new measures have infuriated industry groups, which have warned of shortages of perishable products over the Easter holiday weekend.

"This plan is ... exacerbating our already disrupted supply chain, and will cripple an economy that relies so heavily on cross-border trade," U.S. Representative Veronica Escobar, a Democrat whose district includes most of El Paso, tweeted on Tuesday.

Mexico's National Chamber of Freight Transportation estimated the delays at the Pharr bridge alone caused economic losses of $8 million per day and called on Abbott to withdraw the order to prevent a "collapse in international cross-border trade."

(Reporting by Lizbeth Diaz in Mexico City and Ted Hesson in Washington, additional reporting by Laura Gottesdiener in Monterrey, MexicoEditing by Alistair Bell and Aurora Ellis)

India: Why are women seeking unsafe abortions?

Although abortion is legal, over two-thirds of abortions in India are considered to be risky. Barriers to safe abortion include a shortage of doctors in rural areas, a lack of confidentiality and widespread stigma.



Women often attempt to carry out abortions at home due to stigma in doctors' offices

Chitra (name changed) had to travel more than 40 kilometers (25 miles) from her home to the city of Gurgaon to get an abortion so that her family members would not find out.

"The contraceptive failed, and I did not wish to have a child," she said. "I was repeatedly questioned and treated rudely by the doctors as well as nurses and other staff at the clinic," the 20-year-old student told DW.

"My boyfriend was there to support me, but I was afraid they would force me to ask for my family's permission. I would never want to go through this ordeal again," she said.

Abortions have been legal in India since 1971. An amendment to the Medical Termination of Pregnancy (MTP) Act last year expanded women's access to safe and legal abortions from 20 to 24 weeks, among other changes.

It also added a confidentiality clause, and added failure of contraception as a reason to seek termination of pregnancy, regardless of a woman's marital status.

"As the next step, we need to work towards advocating a more rights-based approach by giving women greater autonomy and choice," said Dr. Nozer Sheriar, who serves on the technical advisory committee for the World Health Organization (WHO) , following the amendment.

Watch video02:47 India's female lawyers fight for equality and basic rights

Women die 'every day' due to unsafe abortion

The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA)'s State of the World Population Report 2022 has stated that about 67% of abortions in India were unsafe.

It also said that eight women die each day due to unsafe abortions, which were the third most common cause of maternal mortality in the South Asian nation.

Chitra's experience sheds light on what many women go through, and on one of the reasons why they may opt for illegal methods of abortion.

The report, titled "Seeing the Unseen: The case for action in the neglected crisis of unintended pregnancy," said that one in every seven unintended pregnancies occurs in India.

An abortion is considered safe if it is done using a method recommended by the WHO. The UNFPA report noted that the amendment to the MTP Act in 2021 appears encouraging, but added that a lot more needs to be done to prevent unsafe abortions and maternal mortality.

A lack of privacy with doctors

In India, a woman does not require her husband's, partner's or family member's approval if she is an adult of sound mind and wishes to get an abortion.

Despite this, there are several hurdles that women face in accessing safe abortions. "In a society that is highly patriarchal, women find it difficult to access abortion," Kajal Jain, program coordinator at the Pune-based Mahila Sarvangeen Utkarsh Mandal (MASUM) NGO told DW.

"Healthcare providers often ask women to get the permission of their husband, or family members, even though it is not required by law. Often, the privacy and confidentiality of the woman is not protected."

"Marginalized women, such as sex workers, HIV positive women, tribal women, single women, and youths find it even more difficult to access abortion. And a lack of access is what leads to unsafe abortions," Jain added.

Watch video 12:00 World Stories - Girls: The unwanted daughters of India

Another issue which many women face is that of geographical access. About 66% of India's population lives in rural parts of the country, where there is a severe shortage of obstetrician-gynecologists, according to the 2019-20 Rural Health Statistics Report of the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare.

As a result, many abortions are often performed by midwives, auxiliary nurses, or birth attendants and are therefore considered unsafe.

The 2015-16 National Family Health Survey (NFHS) showed that only 20% of abortions took place in public sector healthcare facilities. Private clinics and hospitals, which are concentrated in urban India, were responsible for 52% of the abortions.

Dr. Rupali Mishra, who runs a medical and diagnostics center in New Delhi, told DW that many patients come to the center after purchasing illegal at-home abortion kits or getting surgical abortions from fraudulent doctors.

"There are many complications and risks with such patients," she said.
'Recognize abortion as a reproductive need'

The WHO says that the average maternal mortality rate is three times higher in countries with more restrictive abortion laws (223 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births) compared to countries with less restrictive laws (77 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births).

The UNFPA report added that girls between the ages of 15 and 19 were at the highest risk of dying from an abortion-related complication. Unintended pregnancies are heavily correlated to lower education and income levels, especially for younger women and girls.

"If comprehensive sexuality education is not offered in her school, she may lack accurate information. Pregnancy may be her default option because she has few opportunities and choices in her life. Without a chance to finish her education, for instance, she may not see a reason to postpone childbearing," the report said.

According to Section 312 of the Indian Penal Code, "causing a miscarriage" is considered to be an offense, so the MTP act was then introduced to protect doctors who provide abortions. "The MTP bill only protects the doctor from criminalization of abortion services," said Jain.

"The act, which comes from a legal standpoint, needs to be more women-centric. It needs to recognize abortion as a genuine reproductive need, and not punish women," she added.

Watch video 04:38 India: Why are female community health workers on strike?

Edited by: Leah Carter

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Kenya: Safety concerns for political aspirants

As Kenya gears up for its general election in August, the safety of politicians is coming under scrutiny. But Kenyan analysts are optimistic that there will be no repeat of the violence that defined the 2007 elections.

Kenya has a history of election-related violence

The run-up to Kenyan elections, such as the August 9, 2022, general election, carries a certain sense of foreboding for aspiring politicians and their staff. Winning an election may be the goal, but facing threats, kidnappings, assault, and even death is not out of the question.

Recently, Kisii politician Thomas Okari was found dead with stab wounds at his home in Kisii County near Lake Victoria. Across the country, in Mombasa, United Democratic Alliance member and local politician Ali Mwatsahu survived an attack when unknown gunmen sprayed his vehicle with bullets. Mwatsahu is running for member of parliament of Mvita, a hotly contested seat in the coastal city.

But it's not just local politicians targeted. In 2017, Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission ICT manager Chris Msando was tortured and strangled. His remains were found in the Maguga forest in Kiambu County.

According to political scientist Brian Wanyama Singoro of Kibabii University, even presidential candidates are not out of the woods, referring to a recent incident where rowdy youths stoned the helicopter of opposition leader Raila Odinga.

"The security agencies and the government came in very strongly," Wanyama told DW.

"They arrested the culprits. The following day, [Deputy President] William Ruto apologized on behalf of his people [supporters] because this incident took place in his political stronghold. If this incident had been ignored, I'm very sure it would elicit a lot of revenge from Raila Odinga's followers."

President Uhuru Kenyatta will be succeeded by either William Ruto (L) or Raila Odinga (R)

Big shots battle for the top job

The 2022 elections see two Kenyan stalwarts go toe-to-toe for the country's top office. Deputy President William Ruto faces opposition leader Raila Odinga. But, in a twist of loyalties, outgoing president Uhuru Kenyatta ditched his deputy and has thrown his weight behind the opposition leader Odinga to succeed him. This election would mark the fifth time Raila Odinga has been vying for the presidency.

Kenya's multiparty electionshave historically not always gone smoothly. The 2007-2008 general election between incumbent Mwai Kibaki and Raila Odinga descended into chaos, ushering in one of the darkest chapters of the country's political history since independence in 1963. The post-election violence claimed the lives of more than 1,300 people and displaced up to 600,000.
The trauma of 2007 lives on

Joyce Chepkemoi, 39, barely survived the 2007 elections after she and her husband were brutally attacked and mutilated by a mob carrying machetes. Her husband was killed. Chepkemoi recalled that she was so severely injured that she was left for dead, regaining consciousness in a morgue:

"I won't vote again in the Kenya elections. I am against tribalism, elections, violence and protests. I urge especially the youth not to be violent in the elections like what we went through in 2007. Whoever is in power, let them rule, let us just have peace with our children," she told DW.

Ten years later, the 2017 election witnessed a lesser degree of violence.

Gladys Muchiri, 29, who runs her own small business, experienced the 2017 elections in Kisumu county. She believes politicians tend to exploit ethnic divisions: "We all know elections in Kenya are tribe-oriented," she said, adding that leaders abuse Kenya's diverse ethnicity by "using the divide and rule technique."

However, Kenyan political pundit and cartoonist Patrick Gathara argues that because this year will see a new leader in power, he's optimistic there will be less violence.
No incumbent, no problem

"I don't expect anything along the scales of 2007/2008," Gathara told DW, adding, "the state is the number one perpetrator of violence when it comes to elections. It is not just politicians sort of going out and inciting people."

He said the police killed the vast majority of people in 2007. "And once the state doesn't have as much of a stake, there is much less incentive for people to shoot people."


Kenyan security forces are blamed for the majority of violence during election time

Human Rights Watch also singled out Kenyan policeas acting with impunity. The rights organization sees this as a cause for concern in the East African state, noting that security forces' multiple cases of abuse, including killings, go unpunished.

Ironically, this dynamic might help decrease election violence perpetrated by security forces, according to Gathara.

"When there is no incumbent, the state is trying to hedge their bets because they're not sure who's going to come in next. It might be Odinga, it might be Ruto. They don't want to be on the wrong side of that historical divide."

Improved judicial independence

Wanyama also points to the state of Kenya's courts as a reason for optimism.

"We have also seen the independence of the Supreme Court," he told DW, citing the court's opposition to President Kenyatta's Building Bridges Initiative (BBI), which was seen as a blow to the ruling elite. He argued that no group would sway the court, which has boosted ordinary Kenyans' confidence.

"Our hope is that the court will do a good job, unlike in 2007 and those other years where the courts were easily manipulated by government. It looks like now things have changed and everybody has to play ball."

Observers say Kenya's judicial independence has improved

Wary of political "theater"

Gathara is still wary of taking accusations of political targeting at face value. While acknowledging the dangers for local politicians and the deadly precedents for politically motivated violence around elections.

"Many times, claims are made for the purpose of garnering the attention and sensationalizing differences and issues," he says. However, Gathara added that the problem is bigger, in terms of occurrence and seriousness, at a local political level than at the national level.

Wanyama also points out that acts of violence targeting politicians have the opposite effect and "galvanizes" support for the opponent.

"Unfortunately, some of our politicians have perfected the art of using force to their advantage. It does not create unity; it just helps creating divisions that are not healthy to any of our citizens."

Still, Nairobi residents like 35-year-old Jay Maina, who lives in an informal settlement, are already wary of the upcoming months. Many Kenyans leave the urban areas around election times. With a sense of worry, he told DW: "There is some tension, there is some panic before the elections. There might be some intimidation, so people have tried to go back to their ancestral land."


THE POLITICS AND CONTROVERSIES OF KENYA'S 2017 GENERAL ELECTION
NASA's attempt to oust ruling party
The National Super Alliance (NASA) has announced former Prime Minister Raila Odinga, 72, as its presidential candidate. Odinga, a veteran opposition leader, will face his last shot at the presidency after losing three past elections. NASA agonized over which flag-bearer will attract the most votes from key ethnic groups.
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Andrew Wasike in Nairobi contributed to this article.

Edited by: Chrispin Mwakideu

Germany: Over 1 in 4 people have 'migrant background'

The number of people with "migrant background" — foreigners and people with foreign roots — keeps rising in Germany, with Turkey, Poland and Russia the top three countries of familial origin.


Almost one half of people with migrant background spoke mostly or exclusively German at home

A new survey has found that well over one-quarter of people currently living in Germany are either foreign-born or have at least one immigrant parent.

The latest numbers, published by Germany's statistics agency Destatis on Tuesday, show that "people with migrant background" make up 27.2% of Germany's population.

With some 82 million people living in the EU country, officials estimate that about 22.3 million are foreign-born or people with foreign roots — the highest number since the survey was first conducted in 2005.

'A little bit of acceptance' toward migrants still missing in Germany: MP
Where are the immigrants coming from?

Most of the people with migrant background trace their origin to Europe and Asia. Around 7.5 million have links to other EU nations, 3.5 million to the Middle East and 1.1 million to Africa.

When looking to individual countries, Turkey remains the largest point of origin with 12% of the group, followed by Poland with 10% and Russia with 6%.

Which languages do they speak?

The pollsters also found that in 46% of cases, people with migrant background spoke exclusively or mostly German in their home. Turkish is the second-most popular language, with 8% of people with migrant background speaking it at home, followed by Russian with 7% and Arabic with 5%.
What about Ukrainian refugees?

The report does not include changes triggered by the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February which displaced millions. The 2021 numbers found around 308,000 Ukrainians were living in Germany, most of them for many years. In a separate announcement on Tuesday, however, German police said 335,000 Ukrainian refugees have arrived to Germany since the invasion started, more than doubling the number of Ukrainian nationals in the country. The real number is likely greater as the Ukrainians can travel to Germany without a visa.

It is estimated that around half of the Ukrainian refugees in Germany are children and young people.

Germany's massive economy has been heavily reliant on migrant workers for decades, with politicians in recent years working to entice even more migration into the country.

At the same time, however, German and EU politicians have been trying to clamp down on illegal immigration from Africa and the Middle East, prompting accusations of racism in the light of solidarity offered to refugees now arriving from Ukraine.

Edited by: Farah Bahgat

UN warns of 'great finance divide' as Covid shocks, debt, hits poorest hardest

While rich countries borrowed at low rates and saved their economies, poorer nations have spent billions servicing debt. The war in Ukraine will only worsen the pressures on core product prices, officials warn.



Aid flowing from richer donor countries has reduced since the pandemic

Rich countries avoided the worst economic impacts of the coronavirus pandemic but poorer ones continue to deal with debilitating debt, the UN said in a report released on Wednesday, contributing to a global "great finance divide."

According to the report, 77 million people slipped into poverty in 2021 as governments struggled to service debts and secure early vaccine access.

Soaring food and fuel prices amid the Ukraine war are already impacting import-dependent countries, UN officials had previously said.

UN Under Secretary-General Liu Zhenmin, head of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs who led the report.

Amina Mohammed, the UN Deputy Secretary-General said the new findings were "alarming" and called for "collective responsibility to ensure hundreds of millions of people are lifted out of hunger and poverty."

The UN say richer countries should intensify debt relief efforts and ensure better vaccine distribution

Unequal borrowing rates worsening pandemic recovery

Produced by the UN's Inter-agency Task Force on Financing for Development, Wednesday's report found that significantly higher borrowing rates for poorer countries had particularly hamstrung pandemic recovery and development spending there.

The poorest countries pumped billions into servicing debts and were forced to cut spending on education and infrastructure, the report noted, while developed countries could borrow far more at "ultra low" interest rates and stave off the worst economic with comparative ease.

On average, rich countries spend 3.5% of their revenue on servicing debt while less rich nations use up to 14% of revenue, four times more, according to the UN.

The report said some 20% of countries will not return to pre-2019 levels of GDP per capita by the end of 2023 — that's before absorbing the costs of the Ukraine war.
Ukraine war likely to burden poorer countries further

Ukraine and Russia are some of the world's biggest food and fuel exporters and additional impacts of the war on developing economies are already becoming visible. Sri Lanka defaulted on its debts this week as the country's foreign exchange coffers dry up. In Nigeria and Kenya, fuel shortages have crippled businesses and forced tired residents into long fuel queues. Even developed economies, including the US and most of Europe, have been struggling with a sudden spike in inflation after more than a decade where inflation had been difficult to stimulate.

The new UN report also comes as poorer countries suffer the worst effects of climate change because of limited funds to adapt.

Meanwhile, humanitarian agencies recorded sharp declines in the amount of aid spending flowing from richer nations to the developing world amid the pandemic, further limiting response capacities to development and climate emergencies.

As NATO allies gear up for a possible Russian offensive, Mohammed of the UN warned "it would be a tragedy'' if rich donor nations increased military expenditures at the cost of cutting aid to developing countries.

The UN said countries should instead intensify debt relief efforts, ensure equal coronavirus vaccine distribution and speed up sustainable energy investment.

"The developed world proved in the last two years that millions can be lifted out of poverty by the right kind of investment," said UN Under Secretary-General Liu Zhenmin, head of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs who led the report. "The international community must build on that progress and ensure developing countries can invest at similar levels, while reducing inequality and securing a sustainable energy transition."

sl/msh (AP)

 Towards A »Sane Society«

Thoughts on Liberation On the Way to a Humane Society

Burkhard Bierhoff

 Abstract:

Eric Fromm was one of the first psychoanalysts to deal with the crisis of civilization. Hisideas about human nature, the social character and the social unconscious, the pathology of normalcy and the ideal of productivity are important. Fromm criticizes industrialism for its unrealizable promises of freedom and happiness, which correspond to an ideology of growth and progress. The satisfaction of »false« needs and desires does not lead to human well-being.

https://www.academia.edu/38430571/Thoughts_on_Liberation_On_the_Way_to_A_Humane_Society

Fact check: How to spot a fake military success story in Russia-Ukraine war

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has prompted viral videos claiming military success on both sides. But can you trust the images of drone strikes, snipers and ambushes? DW unpacked one video in search of the truth.

The Ukranian army surprised many experts by resisting against superior Russian units - 

but not every success is in fact real

In wartime, supporters of one side or another share "military success" videos of combat footage, often set to music. Besides the moral and ethical issues of spreading such explicitly violent content, there is another problem: Often such videos show military footage from completely different conflicts. This DW fact check examines one example from the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war to see how it stands up to the claims made by the account that posted it. We will also share the methods and tools we used to verify the footage used.

Claim: An unofficial Twitter page supporting the armed forces of Ukraine (@ArmedForcesUkr) with more than 450,000 followers describes its 42-second clip as containing "a hit song of the Territorial Defense of the Ukrainian Armed Forces." They use the derogatory term "orcs" to describe Russian soldiers. The video contains 16 separate scenes of explosions, death and destruction, mostly carried out by drone strikes but also roadside bombs and sniper attacks. 

The editing is matched to cheerful music with a child's voice singing "La la la, kill the Moskal," which is an ethnic slur against Russians.

But does it really contain successes of the Ukrainian army?

Verdict: Misleading

DW has tried to identify the 16 sources used in the clip and found that six are definitely not from the 2022 Russia-Ukraine war. In fact, one scene of alleged Ukrainian military prowess actually shows Russian snipers at work. The remaining 10 incidents might be legitimate but cannot be 100% verified.

Beware of 'official' films posted from unofficial accounts

The user @ArmedForcesUkr does not have an official Twitter verification tick, which might account for the misleading nature of the clip. The video's first and the last scenes first appeared on digital platforms in October 2020, during the war between Azerbaijan and Armenia. At least one scene can be traced back to official Azeri military footage  of attacks by Bayraktar drones, which are also used by Ukraine against Russian forces.

The footage is cropped and has lost a great deal of clarity, either because it has been shared so often or because the filmmaker wanted to hide its origin. 

What is allegedly current footage (left) was published more than two years ago (right)

The night-vision footage at 26 seconds was probably first posted in February 2020 by a Russian account "milinfolive" on social media platforms like VKontakte and Telegram. That post describes the footage as the work of Russian Special Forces in Syria. According to the account, the footage was published by the Defense Ministry (see screenshot). 

It is the only footage in the video that shows images of people being shot at close range, rather than targeted by drone missiles. 

More than one third of the film's content is false

Just 27 seconds of the 42-second clip can be sourced to video that appeared on digital platforms only after the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. Some of it is watermarked @polkazov and can be traced to the media operation of Ukraine's Azov battalion. These clips claim to show Ukraine attacks in the besieged city of Mariupol in mid-March 2022. 

Some footage appears to have been sourced from a Ukraine Armed Forces compilation of drone strikes near Kherson from March 18, 2022, posted on YouTube. Another scene apparently showing an anti-tank missile strike was posted to Telegram on March 27, 2022 by a member of Ukraine's National Security, Defense and Intelligence Committee, Yuriy Misyagin.

Tracking down the original videos

DW verified the material in the @ArmedForcesUkr post using reverse image searching of screenshots of each scene to locate the video uploads. We then compared the first appearances of the videos in question to determine whether they pre-dated the 2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine. There are several useful sites for this task such as TinEye and Yandex Visual Search, as well as browser plug-ins such as RevEye. 

In viral videos, visual power often triumphs over truth 

In the case of the video from @ArmedForcesUkr, many Twitter users immediately commented that the clip contained non-Ukrainian footage. Nevertheless, the video has at the time of writing been viewed more than 160,000 times, with the majority of users celebrating its content