Stabilisation, default and autarky

Riaz Riazuddin Published May 27, 2022 

ARE there common elements in the three seemingly disparate situations mentioned in the title of this piece? Perplexingly, yes. Take autarky first. This is a nationalist concept of an ideal, fully self-sufficient country that consumes what it produces; without any imports, exports, foreign investment or indebtedness. Autarky lies at the opposite extreme of free international trade and finance. No country fits this Robinson Crusoe picture of the economy today.

Even North Korea, the most isolated country, has extensive trade relations with a few countries, including Russia, China, and India. As there are gains from trade between individuals as well as nations, economic arguments for autarky are weak. A nation, however, must strike a balance between dependency and autarky in light of its domestic and geopolitical situation.

Are we as a nation self-sufficient, or dependent on outsiders? This may seem like an absurd question, given our elevated levels of imports and indebtedness. We are a big nation, and our politicians sometimes invoke (in their speeches, but rarely through actions) the need to move towards autarky to lessen dependency on foreign institutions.

What kind of pol­icy actions are needed to reduce dependency? Most of these actions lie, ironically, in the macroeconomic stabilisation that is derided by them. Stabili­sa­tion policies help a country move towards greater self-sufficiency by tightening financial belts and reducing trade, fiscal and other deficits, thus paving the way for lowering debt in relation to the economy’s size. So, stabilisation is a move towards autarky, whether it is under a home-grown or IMF programme.

Stabilisation programmes driven by the IMF are governed through the Articles of Agreement. According to Article I (v), one goal of the Fund is: “To give confidence to members by making the general resources of the Fund temporarily available to them under adequate safeguards, thus providing them with opportunity to correct maladjustments in their balance of payments without resorting to measures destructive of national or international prosperity”. This means IMF lends temporarily under adequate safeguards. Safeguards demanded by a lender are to ensure that it will get its resources back on time, and other objectives of lending will be met. This is one reason why IMF programmes are labelled as very rigid — because their flexibility is constrained by the needed safeguards. Although this approach cannot be termed irrational, it remains problematic.

Take the recent case of Sri Lanka, which last month announced a default on its external debt pending an IMF rescue. A week later, the IMF tweeted, “The IMF and a Sri Lankan delegation held initial technical discussions on a possible IMF-supported programme. Rapid progress in restoring debt sustainability would allow for deeper Fund engagement and reduce the hardship faced by the people of Sri Lanka.”

It indicated that initial talks could not ensure adequate safeguards needed by the IMF to provide its resources. This sounded like the IMF’s objective had failed. The objective is stated in Article I (v) — providing Sri Lanka “with opportunity to correct maladjustments in [its] balance of payments without resorting to measures destructive of national or international prosperity”.

This failure has resulted in the destruction not only of Sri Lanka’s prosperity but also a political crisis that has led to bloodshed.

If our authorities keep believing that our economic and financial condition is not as bad as Sri Lanka’s, then their inaction is likely to prove risky.

The Sri Lankan authorities could not undertake tough stabilisation measures despite the IMF Executive Board’s assessment in March 2022 that “… the country faces mounting challenges, including public debt that has risen to unsustainable levels, low international reserves, and persistently large financing needs in the coming years”. Sri Lanka is going through extreme stabilisation imposed by default. With the beginning of the default and till the time Sri Lanka secures financing, it will be forced to tighten its belt to a punishing extent. In hindsight it appears that Sri Lanka would have been better off accepting IMF conditions, because by not doing so, it is undergoing far harsher conditions imposed by default. During this period, Sri Lanka has been compelled to move towards less dependency but at an exorbitant cost that includes the loss of many lives. Default does unleash forces leading to nationalistic objectives of achieving a little more self-sufficiency, but at the cost of extreme national distress. It is, therefore, often said that ‘default is not an option’.

Default was not an option for Sri Lanka. But when debt starts becoming unsustainable, it automatically becomes the only option. Are we learning any lesson from Sri Lanka’s experience? If our authorities keep believing that our economic and financial condition is not as bad as Sri Lanka’s, then their inaction is likely to prove risky, both politically and financially. No government would want to preside over a default. Default is an extremely bitter pill to swallow. It is, therefore, better to take a less bitter pill by voluntarily imposing fiscal consolidation and to move incrementally towards self-sufficiency. Debt dependency, unfortunately, requires debt sustainability or its continuity. Debt shackles are not easy to break. Doing so requires long-term patience as we gradually reduce our aggregate consumption in relation to the size of our economy and increase our savings and investment.

Pakistan’s total debt and liabilities to GDP ratio declined from 93.8 per cent in June 2020 to 86.2pc in June 2021. Due to this improvement, the February 2022 IMF Staff Report for Pakistan found its public debt to be sustainable. It, however, highlighted “the risks to debt sustainability from delayed implementation of fiscal and structural reforms and from the continuation of low growth”. A new assessment of sustainability will depend on the updated debt figures (not yet available), FY22 GDP (which has so far grown by 6pc) and the government’s ability to secure financing from IMF, friendly countries, and multilateral institutions.

All this is still possible if the government takes difficult measures that it has so far avoided. Who is going to implement tough fiscal tightening? Will this job be left to an interim set-up? A rapid incremental move towards self-sufficiency is still possible irrespective of whoever implements the stabilising measures. Confused signals are, unfortunately, coming from various voices in government. Import-banning gimmicks won’t consolidate the fiscal position. Time is of the essence where taking decisions is concerned. Sri Lanka sadly missed the opportunity. Are we ready?

The writer is a former deputy governor of the State Bank of Pakistan.

rriazuddin@gmail.com
Published in Dawn, May 27th, 2022

Sri Lankan crisis: Protest seeking resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa enters 50th day

The organisers said the day would be marked with more intense agitation marches with wider participation

The action started on April 9 when protesters walked into the Galle Face promenade central Colombo and camped there blocking the entry gate to Rajapaksa's presidential office.

File picture

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Our Bureau, PTI   |   Colombo   |   Published 28.05.22, 01:04 PM

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As the ongoing anti-government protest demanding the resignation of Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa over the worst economic crisis entered its 50th day, organisers on Saturday said the day would be marked with more intense agitation marches with wider participation.

Sri Lanka is near bankruptcy and has severe shortages of essentials from food, fuel, medicines and cooking gas to toilet paper and matchsticks. For months, people have been forced to stay in long lines to buy the limited stocks.

Sri Lanka's economic crisis has created political unrest with a protest occupying the entrance to the president's office demanding his resignation continuing for the past 49 days. The crisis has already forced prime minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, the elder brother of the president, to resign on May 9.

There has been an intense call for President Gotabaya Rajapaksa to also resign however, he has refused to do so.

Saturday marks the 50th day of the Go Rajapaksa protest which has also seen the death of a parliamentarian.

The Sri Lankan police have on occasions used force to control the unrest.

The continuous protest demanding the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa has reached its 50th day today. The day is to be marked with protest marches with wider participation, the organisers said.

The action started on April 9 when protesters walked into the Galle Face promenade central Colombo and camped there blocking the entry gate to Rajapaksa's presidential office.

They expanded activities at the site by naming it GGG Gota Go Gama (village).

A reference library, a theater, a political podium with cultural and religious events.

Volunteers delivered food and drink at the site as numbers swelled in participation with every passing day.

The chorus for the resignation of Rajapaksa gathered momentum as people came to be hit by the ongoing worsening economic conditions - long queues at fuel pumps and cooking gas stores, scarcities of essentials, businesses slumping, extended hours of power cuts.

The participants feared a crackdown on the protest on a few occasions. But the backing of the legal community saw authorities restraining themselves against physically attacking the site for fear of facing rights abuse charges.

However, on May 9 a group of government supporters did attack the site injuring the protesters.

A backlash followed with forcing the country into an island wide curfew. In the violence ensued at least 10 people died.

Properties of some 78 ruling party politicians were attacked or suffered arson.

On the same evening prime minister Mahinda Rajapaksa resigned and Ranil Wickremesinghe an Opposition politician, replaced him.

Mahinda Rajapaksa, his son Namal and several seniors are still being quizzed on the violence.

At least two ruling parliamentarians are remanded for their responsibility to attack the peaceful protesters.

Meanwhile, the police said they had obtained a court order preventing the protesters from entering certain key roads of the central Colombo's Fort area.

Protesters are to gather at the site from 2 pm local time carrying black flags for a March to underline the need for Rajapaksa's resignation.

Our struggle would only end when the Rajapaksa family leaves the political arena and be hauled before the people's court for all the wrongs they have done, Chameera Jeewantha, a protester who has been at the site all 50 days said.

France: Scientists hatch plan to save orca stranded in River Seine

French officials plan to use recordings of orca songs in an attempt to guide a killer whale, stuck in the Seine, back to the ocean. Experts have sounded the alarm over the marine mammal's health condition.


An orca swims in the Seine river at Duclair in Normandy, 

after straying into the river from the sea

Officials in France are set to use orca sounds to guide a killer whale that strayed from the Atlantic Ocean and got lost upstream in the River Seine.

"The use of these non-invasive methods, from several hundred meters (feet) distance, will make it possible to avoid using ships in the immediate proximity of the animal, which could aggravate its stress and endanger its survival, as well as the safety of rescuers," the Seine-Maritime prefecture said on Twitter on Friday.

Local authorities plan to monitor the whale's location with a drone — while also emitting recordings of orca songs to coax it back to the sea.

The orca was first spotted by crew members of a trawler about 30 kilometers (18.6 miles) off the northern coast of France on April 5, Marine Mammal Research Group GEEC said.

The orca has since been sighted multiple times in the river, even about 60 kilometers upstream in the Seine near the small municipality of Yainville.

The male orca is believed to have contracted a fungal infection

 after spending weeks lost in the Seine River

Worsening health

Experts have raised concerns that the marine mammal's health is deteriorating in the fresh water of the river.

Observers have seen signs of fungal infection and believe that the whale is emaciated.

A researcher tracking the whale told local media that it is now at risk of dying.

"It is in a life-threatening condition ... its state of health is very poor," Gerard Mauger, vice president of GECC, was quoted as saying on the website of broadcaster France 3.

The 4-meter orca has been identified as a male.

In the past few weeks, several local media outlets have shown videos of the killer whale in the river, with its dorsal fin sticking out of the water and its unique black and white coloring showing as it comes to the surface for air.

dvv/rs (Reuters, dpa)

Mexico: Archaeologists uncover 1,500-year-old Mayan city

After uncovering the ruins of an ancient Mayan city on a construction site in Mexico, researchers have presented their discoveries. The site hosts an array of palaces and other buildings.

The style of architecture of the buildings at Xiol is more typical of the style found in regions further south

Archaeologists working in the Yucatan region of Mexico have revealed the remains of a centuries-old Mayan city, local media reported on Friday.

The city of Xiol — which means "the spirit of man" in Mayan — is believed to have been the home of some 4,000 people between 600 and 900 CE, during the late classic period.

The area was first uncovered in 2018 on a construction site for a future industrial park close to the town of Merida on Yucatan's northern coast. Archaeologists from the National Institute for Anthropology and History (INAH) then took over the site.

The Mayan civilization was destroyed by Spanish colonizers in the 17th century

"The discovery of this Mayan city is important for its monumental architecture and because it has been restored despite being located on private land," delegate for the INAH center in Yucatan, Arturo Chab Cardenas, told news agency EFE.

Palaces, priests, pyramids

The site is of particular interest due to its Puuc style architecture — famously used for the Chichen Itza pyramid — which is more typically found in the southern part of the Yucatan region.

The archaeologists also highlighted the array of palaces, pyramids and plazas found at the site as well as evidence of various social classes residing there.

"There were people from different social classes... priests, scribes, who lived in these great palaces, and there were also the common people who lived in small buildings," Carlos Peraza, one of the archaeologists leading the excavations, said.

Some of the items found at the site appear to have been brought from other regions of Central America

"With time, urban sprawl (in the area) has grown and many of the archaeological remains have been destroyed... but even we as archaeologists are surprised, because we did not expect to find a site so well preserved," Peraza added.

Ancient artifacts on display

One of the owners of the land where Xiol was discovered, Mauricio Montalvo, explained to EFE how "at first we saw a giant stone and as we excavated enormous buildings began to appear."

"It was incredible, so we informed INAH and then we realized the need to change our original plans because for our company, it's more important to preserve the Mayan heritage," he said.

Reseachers displayed several tools, vases and pots from the Xiol site

The researchers said they had found the bodies of 15 adults and children in nearby burial grounds who had been buried with obsidian — originating from modern-day Guatemala — and other belongings.

Several tools and ceramics dating back as far as the pre-classic period (700-350 BCE) were also displayed by the researchers.

ab/rs (EFE, Reuters)

Kenya's most famous play comes home after 45-year wait


Although the play occupies a special place on the Kenyan stage, 

its tumultuous history means it has not seen the light of day since 1977 

The play's triumphant return to the country that forced its creators to choose between silence or exile is cause for some optimism

The play tells the story of a poor Kenyan family battling a land-grab by their wealthy compatriots

The production, which runs until the end of May, relied heavily on collaboration 

The team took pains to make the production feel as authentic as possible

For writer Ngugi wa Thiong'o, 'the hierarchy of language' is at the heart of efforts to fight inequality 

Many issues highlighted by the playwrights still persist in Kenya and beyond, from economic inequality to racism

PHOTOS  AFP/Tony KARUMBA

Ammu KANNAMPILLY
Fri, May 27, 2022

It was banned for years and its authors -- including the celebrated Ngugi wa Thiong'o -- imprisoned, but after more than four decades, Kenya's most famous play is finally home.

As the lights dim and a hush settles over the Nairobi audience, the theatre explodes into song and actors dance down the aisle.

It is a scene few could have imagined.

Although "Ngaahika Ndeenda" ("I Will Marry When I Want") occupies a special place on the Kenyan stage, the drama's tumultuous history means it has not seen the light of day since 1977, when it was performed by peasants and factory workers in the central town of Limuru.

Its withering take on the exploitation of ordinary Kenyans by the country's elite hit home and the government wasted no time in shutting down the show, banning Ngugi's books and jailing him and the play's co-writer, Ngugi wa Mirii.

Following a year in Kamiti Maximum Security Prison, Ngugi was released but "virtually banned from getting any job", he told AFP in an interview from California, where he lives in self-imposed exile.

After Kenya embraced democratic reforms, he returned home in 2004 and was mobbed by fans at the airport.

But the visit quickly turned ugly, when he was beaten by armed men and his wife raped in their Nairobi apartment. It has never been established if robbery was the sole motive behind the attack.

"The play has had all these consequences on my life... my life would not (let) me forget it even if I tried," the 84-year-old said.

- 'Spiritual experience' -

Born into a large peasant family in 1938, Kenya's most feted novelist and perennial Nobel Prize contender launched his writing career in English.

But it was a decision in the 1970s to abandon English in favour of his native Kikuyu that cemented his reputation as a writer willing to risk his literary future to preserve African languages.

It comes as little surprise then that the play, which tells the story of a poor Kenyan family battling a land-grab by their wealthy compatriots, is also being staged in Kikuyu, with some shows in English.

"It's been a spiritual experience for me to be on that stage," said Mwaura Bilal, who plays the protagonist Kiguunda, a farmer fighting to hold on to his culture and his tiny plot of land.

"There's an intrinsic human need to connect with who you are, especially in Africa, where we have been taught that English, French, German are marks of superiority, of intelligence," the 34-year-old Kikuyu actor told AFP.

The production, which runs until the end of May, relied heavily on collaboration, its British director Stuart Nash told AFP.

The process involved him directing the actors in English who would then apply the instructions to their Kikuyu performance as well.

"It wasn't so much the language that was challenging but as someone who is not Kenyan or Kikuyu, there's a cultural subtext which isn't always clear," Nash said.

The team took pains to make the production feel as authentic as possible, peppering the English version with Swahili and including traditional Kikuyu songs in both performances.

- Troubling relevance -

Many of the issues highlighted by the playwrights still persist in Kenya and beyond, from widening economic inequality to the lingering trauma of racism.

The play's troubling relevance, decades on, isn't lost on the cast, the director or its creator.

"I am an activist, I want to see change," Ngugi said.

Nearly 60 years after winning independence from Britain in 1963, Kenya has struggled to bridge the inequality gap and is now preparing for a presidential election that pits two multi-millionaires against each other.

"Nothing has changed," said Nice Githinji, who portrays the show's female lead Wangeci, seeking a better life for her daughter.

"Perhaps that was why the play was banned -- so nothing would change," Githinji, 36, told AFP.

Nevertheless, the play's triumphant return to the country that forced its creators to choose between silence or exile is itself cause for some optimism.

Over four decades after Ngugi took the fateful decision to stop writing fiction in English, overturning "the hierarchy of language" remains at the heart of his efforts to fight inequality.

Even today, Kenyan children are sometimes bullied by teachers for speaking their mother tongue instead of English at school, in a disturbing echo of the pre-independence era.

"It is very important to instil pride in one's language," Ngugi said.

"I hope we can continue striving for that world. We cannot give up."

amu/np/bp

Vanuatu declares climate emergency

Vanuatu was hit by a devastating cyclone in 2020

 (AFP/PHILIPPE CARILLO)

Sat, May 28, 2022, 

Vanuatu's parliament has declared a climate emergency, with the low-lying island nation's prime minister flagging a US$1.2 billion cost to cushion climate change's impacts on his country.

Speaking to parliament in Port Vila on Friday, Prime Minister Bob Loughman said rising sea levels and severe weather were already disproportionately affecting the Pacific -- highlighting two devastating tropical cyclones and a hard-hitting drought in the last decade.

"The Earth is already too hot and unsafe," Loughman said.

"We are in danger now, not just in the future."

The parliament unanimously supported the motion, and it follows similar declarations by dozens of other countries, including Britain, Canada and South Pacific neighbour Fiji.
-
"Vanuatu's responsibility is to push responsible nations to match action to the size and urgency of the crisis," the leader said.

"The use of the term emergency is a way of signalling the need to go beyond reform as usual."

The declaration was part of a "climate diplomacy push" ahead of a UN vote on his government's application to have the International Court of Justice move to protect vulnerable nations from climate change.

Last year, the nation of around 300,000 said it would seek a legal opinion from one of the world's highest judicial authorities to weigh in on the climate crisis.

Though a legal opinion by the court would not be binding, Vanuatu hopes it would shape international law for generations to come on the damage, loss and human rights implications of climate change.

He also outlined the country's enhanced commitment to the Paris agreement to be reached by 2030 at the cost of at least US$1.2 billion -- in a draft plan primarily focused on adapting to climate change, mitigating its impacts and covering damages.

Most of the funding would need to be from donor countries, he said.

This week, Australia's new Foreign Minister Penny Wong used a trip to Fiji to promise Pacific nations a reset on climate policy after a "lost decade" under conservative rule.

"We will end the climate wars in our country; this is a different Australian government and a different Australia. And we will stand shoulder to shoulder with you, our Pacific family, in response to this crisis," Wong told a Pacific Island Forum event.

al/dgi/mtp

In Bogota, trash of the rich becomes lifeline for the poor

Ophélie LAMARD
Sat, May 28, 2022

They appear at nightfall, dragging heavy carts from dustbin to dustbin in the affluent northern suburbs of the Colombian capital Bogota.

Informal recyclers, they rifle through the trash of the rich looking for waste plastic, glass bottles and cardboard they can sell for a handful of pesos.

It is back-breaking work for little reward, but a salvation for thousands in a country where one in eight city dwellers is unemployed, and the poverty rate approaches 40 percent.

"This life is hard, but it is my only option to survive," Jesus Maria Perez, 52, told AFP.

Men, women and even children: these waste pickers are the face of the misery that candidate after candidate for Sunday's first round of presidential elections has vowed to eradicate.

Many, Perez included, are among the estimated 1.8 million migrants to have fled neighboring Venezuela in search of a better life in Colombia -- Latin America's fourth-largest economy but one of the world's most unequal.

In 2020, according to the Bogota city council, 25,000 of the capital's eight million inhabitants worked as informal rubbish recyclers.

On average, each earns between 12,000 and 18,000 pesos ($3 to $4.50) daily for their efforts, according to Alvaro Nocua of the "Give Me Your Hand" association set up to help this community.

- Human work horses -

For Perez, who used to be a cook in Venezuela, it is a struggle to meet his daily goal of 40,000 pesos -- about $10 -- to cover his one meal a day, a bed for the night and parking for his wooden cart.

He has no horse or donkey to pull the heavy burden: the Bogota municipality banned the practice eight years ago to combat animal abuse.

And as few can afford a self-propelled vehicle, it is people who do the heavy lifting, pulling their carts for kilometers every day.

Whole families take part in the endeavor; the parents wading through the garbage as little ones wait in the cart, playing among the rubbish.

Bogota produces nearly 7,500 tons of waste every day, of which as much as 16 percent, municipal data shows, is recycled by people like Perez.

Nearly 80 percent of Colombian households did not recycle or even separate their waste at home, according to 2019 figures.

- A small income -

Martha Munoz, 45, runs a small recycling station where she buys waste from the informal collectors before reselling it to one of 15 large centers in Bogota.

"Many of those who come here live on the street; this allows them to have a small income," she told AFP.

Munoz said she raised her seven children with her recycling income -- one is a lawyer today and another an engineer.

Perez's expectations are shorter term.

On the day AFP met him, he had managed to earn only 25,000 pesos, just over half of what he needs.

Subtracting the rent for his room in a filthy boarding house in a rough neighborhood and expenses for parking his cart, Perez is left with just 1,000 pesos -- about a quarter of a US dollar.

To make up the difference, he sets out again, this time to sell candy and bin bags on the street.

In this way, he collects enough to pay for his first and only meal of the day: a small sachet of rice with a bit of meat.

According to the World Bank, Colombia is one of the countries with the highest income inequality and biggest informal labor markets in Latin America.

Colombians go to the polls Sunday for elections in which deepening economic woes -- which gave rise to deadly protests last year -- are a key campaign issue.

ocl-hba/mlr/mdl/aha

Climate change effect on Peruvian glaciers debated in German court





UCL researcher Noah Walker-Crawford (left) says disaster has struck

 Huaraz before due to a glacier avalanche (AFP/Luka GONZALES)

Ernesto TOVAR
Sat, May 28, 2022, 12:47 AM·4 min read

German judges and experts have arrived at the edge of a melting glacier high up in the Peruvian Andes to examine a complaint made by a local farmer who accuses energy giant RWE of threatening his home by contributing to global warming.

The visit by the nine-member delegation to the region is the latest stage in a case the plaintiffs hope will set a new worldwide precedent.

Leading the demand for "climate justice" is 41-year-old Peruvian farmer Saul Luciano Lliuya, who lives in the mountains close to the city of Huaraz.

He has filed suit against the German firm RWE, saying its greenhouse gas emissions are responsible for the melting of nearby glaciers.

The trip was ordered by the Higher Regional Court in the northern German city of Hamm, where Lliuya submitted his claim against RWE, having previously had his case dismissed by another court in Essen.

The delegation must determine what risk the melting glaciers pose to the city of Huaraz and its 120,000 inhabitants below the Palcacocha glacier.

"We want the RWE company to be held responsible for environmental damages," Lliuya, a farmer and tourist guide supported by the German environmental NGO Germanwatch, told AFP.

"In general they have polluted all over the world and with this claim we are trying to do something," added Lliuya.

RWE operates in 27 countries in the world, including Chile and Brazil, but not Peru.

The claim "was rejected in the first instance because it did not have any legal basis and did not respect German civil law," RWE spokesman Guido Steffen told AFP.

"We are confident this will happen again with the appeal."

RWE insists that "according to law, individual emitters are not responsible for universal processes, that are effectively global, such as climate change."

Lliuya and Germanwatch met during the COP20 climate change conference in Lima in 2014, after which the German NGO's activists traveled to Huaraz to discuss a potential claim in Germany.

- Feeling 'impotent' -

Lliuya says his greatest fear is that the melting glaciers result in the Palcacocha lake overflowing.

At an altitude of 4,650 meters (15,000 feet), the huge blue-turquoise lake sits below the Palcaraju and Pucaranra glaciers in the Huascaran national park, and could flood Huaraz below if it bursts its banks.

"As a farmer and citizen I don't want these glaciers to disappear, they're important," said Lliuya.

But he says he feels "impotent" because "you know you're in a risk zone and there are businesses and industries that have caused this."

Lliuya owns a half hectare "chacra" -- the Quechua word for a small farmstead -- on the slopes of the mountain.

He owns chickens and sheep and grows corn and quinoa.

Lliuya lives a modest life with his wife and two children. Their kitchen has few utensils and a wide tree trunk that serves as the dining table.

He is also afraid that a drought in the underground aquifers could threaten local agriculture and Huaraz's water provisions.

- Battle in German courts -

The case against RWE was brought in 2015 and the German company won at the first instance the following year. But in 2017, the court in Hamm agreed to hear the case.

The visit by experts, which was ordered in 2019, was delayed by the Covid-19 pandemic.

Germanwatch and Lliuya want RWE to pay for the costs to protect Huaraz from any eventual flooding.

"This case refers to our historic emissions of greenhouse gases, and we have always complied with governmental limits, including our carbon dioxide emissions," says RWE, which has stated a goal of becoming carbon neutral by 2040.

Peru has lost 51 percent of its glaciers over the last 50 years, the national water authority said in 2020.

Noah Walker-Crawford, a climate change researcher at University College London (UCL) and Germanwatch analyst, told AFP that 1,800 people died in 1941 when Palcacocha flooded Huaraz due to a glacial avalanche.

Since then, the volume of Palcacocha dropped by 96 percent over three decades.

"But then, due to the rapid recession of the glaciers due to global warming, the lake has grown rapidly," said Walker-Crawford.

et/ljc/mr/bc/des/aha

Iran police tear-gas protesters after building collapse: media


Iranian Vice President Mohammad Mokhber (2nd-R), shown visiting the site of the collapsed building, said there had been "widespread corruption" (AFP/-) (-)


Sat, May 28, 2022

Iranian police fired tear gas and warning shots to disperse protesters in the southwestern city of Abadan where a tower block collapse killed 28 people, local media reported on Saturday.

A large section of the 10-storey Metropol building that was under construction in Abadan, Khuzestan province, crumbled on Monday in one of Iran's deadliest such disasters in years.

It was the third night of protests in Abadan and other cities of the province which borders Iraq, local media reported.

Security forces in Abadan "used tear gas and shot in the air near the collapse site" on Friday night to disperse hundreds of protesters, who were mourning the lives lost and demanding justice for the perpetrators of the incident, Fars news agency said.

A number of people shouted "death to incompetent officials" and "incompetent officials must be executed", similar to calls in protests on Wednesday and Thursday nights, it added.

Elsewhere in Khuzestan another protest, in the city of Bandar-e Mahshahr, saw people chanting while banging on traditional drums and hitting cymbals, images published by Fars showed.

People also took to the streets further afield including in the central Iranian cities of Isfahan, Yazd and Shahin Shahr on Friday to express sympathy with the victims of the tragedy, Fars news agency said.

On Thursday night, a shop in Abadan belonging to the family of the building's owner "was set on fire and destroyed by unknown individuals," Tasnim news agency reported earlier.

Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi, who is in Abadan, said on Saturday that "two more bodies were recovered" and sent for identification, raising the death toll to 28, according to state news agency IRNA.

Officials, however, have not announced how many are people still trapped under the rubble.

The number of suspects has also risen.

Khuzestan's provincial judiciary said on Saturday that 13 people have now been arrested in relation with the incident, including the mayor and two former mayors, IRNA said.

In a statement posted on his official website on Thursday, Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei called for those responsible to be prosecuted and punished.

First Vice President Mohammad Mokhber told state television that "widespread corruption existed between the contractor, the builder, the supervisor and the licensing system".

In January 2017, 22 people, including 16 firefighters, died in a blaze that engulfed the 15-storey Plasco shopping centre in Tehran.

pdm/it

Xi’s vision

A.G. Noorani Published May 28, 2022 - 

PRESIDENT Joe Biden of the United States, on a recent visit to Japan as part of his first trip to East Asia after taking office, was most ill-advised in offering Taiwan a guarantee of military help in the event of any armed attack by the People’s Republic of China. Such guarantees are not given at press conferences. One may be forgiven for suspecting, though, that it was a planted question. He clarified, “That is the commitment we made.”

This is not borne out by the record. Such a guarantee would require Congressional approval. It is well known that previous US administrations have been reluctant to give such an assurance to Taiwan, which has long sought it — and most eagerly. What the US gave in the past was “strategic ambiguity” about how far Washington would go if Taiwan was invaded by China. In the aftermath of Biden’s assurance, the State Department tried to dilute its implications, stating that America’s “One China policy and [US] commitment to peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait … remains”.

The Taiwan Relations Act, 1979, enacted by the US Congress and assented to by the president, contains no guarantee of military intervention. Will the US Congress agree to amend it? What the US has done in the last 40 years is to arm Taiwan to the teeth while maintaining the One China policy since Henry Kissinger’s historic visit in 1971.

Read: Taiwan crisis

True enough that last October, President Biden had held out a similar assurance to Taiwan. But interestingly, the US did not include Taiwan among the members of the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.

It remains to be seen whether the initiatives suggested by China will be accepted.

There is, however, a more fundamental issue. It is China’s place in the evolving world order and, relatedly, China’s self-perception of its role. China has refrained from criticising Russia over Ukraine but it has indicated some distance from Russia in its position, however small.

China values its relationship with the countries of the European Union. Recently, Chinese President Xi Jinping declared that every effort should be made to prevent the war in Ukraine from intensifying to a point of no return.

Last month, President Xi proposed a Global Security Initiative “to stay committed to the vision of common, comprehensive, cooperative and sustainable security”. One is reminded of Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev’s proposal for a collective security system in Asia and prime minister Alexei Kosygin’s proposal for freedom of trade and transit in Asia — both in 1969.

Writing in China Daily, Liu Guangyuan, an official at China’s foreign affairs ministry, described President Xi’s initiative as a “systematic proposal”, and as one that “underscores the importance of both traditional and nontraditional security for a peaceful and stable world”.

Liu wrote: “The interests of all countries are closely entwined. Various nontraditional security issues such as terrorism, climate change, cybersecurity, refugee crises and public health, emerging as the main threats facing all mankind, have led the world to an interconnected security dynamic that has a global impact.”

The writer claimed that both, the security initiative and the Global Development Initiative that was suggested by the Chinese president last year “are the two driving wheels of a vehicle”. They represent the need for cooperation in peace and development.

On the matter of Ukraine, China has defined its position as one based on impartiality and its own judgement of the situation. Nevertheless, as Liu wrote, Beijing “will continue in-depth exchanges with other countries and build up consensus on the Global Security Initiative. It will double down on efforts to translate the visions in the initiative into reality, respond to the calls of the times with concrete actions and work for proper settlement of regional and international hotspots for a world of lasting peace and universal security”. It remains to be seen how these claims are fulfilled. The vision may be a noble one. But will it be realised?

China wants to have closer ties with Germany, France and the Asean bloc. It also wants to have closer relations with the European Union, but realises that there may be impediments that relate to the economic bloc’s relations with the US. Xi supports a role for Europe in promoting peace talks and in the creation of a balanced European security framework. He has urged negotiations in the war between Russia and Ukraine.

There is no doubt that peace and development are the need of the hour across the world. The two initiatives that the Chinese leader has suggested carry weight. The question, as always, is one of global consensus and implementation in a world where political and economic divisions have made it hard to realise the goal of security and development for all.

The writer is an author and a lawyer based in Mumbai.

Published in Dawn, May 28th, 2022