Sunday, May 29, 2022

Russia’s net debt position goes into deficit in 1Q22, but it still has healthy reserves despite sanctions and heavy spending
Russia had a net surplus of over $150bn before the war started if it had chosen to pay off all its external debt, but now that is a deficit of $177bn. / bne IntelliNews


By bne IntelliNews May 29, 2022

Russia’s external debt has been falling for years now to around 15% of GDP – one of the lowest levels in the world – and with the concurrent relentless rise in hard currency reserves, it created a net surplus position of some $153bn as of the end of the first quarter. Before the war started Russia could have paid off all its external debt and still had over $150bn left in cash.

After the sanctions on the Central Bank of Russia’s (CBR) gross international reserves (GIR) on February 27, now it can’t. Removing about $300bn from the spendable reserves and you are left with a deficit of just under $180bn. But even this is a low level of debt and the bulk of it is private, not public, leaving the government in a strong position.

In the shorter term, in the run-up to the war the external debt began to rise again modestly in the second and third quarter of 2021 to peak at $490bn in September before starting to fall again, as the chart shows, to the last reported figure of $453bn as of the end of the first quarter.


Of that debt, only $86bn was government debt and another $367.4bn was private debt, according to the CBR. Of the public debt some $40bn was in the form of Eurobonds.

With nominal GIR of $614bn at the end of the first quarter that meant Russia began the war in Ukraine with a net $528bn surplus in cash if you ignore the private debt. Even removing the circa $310bn of CBR reserves frozen by the West from this, that still leaves the government with a surplus of $218bn, of which circa $134bn is in the form of physical gold and a bit less than $100bn in cash.

Taking the more recent GIR total of $585.7bn as of May 13 as the total reserves and subtracting the $310bn of frozen CBR reserves as well as the sum total of public and private debt as of the end of the first quarter, that leaves a deficit of $177.3bn, or a net 12% of GDP, a very low level of indebtedness.

Looking at the same reserves in May and subtracting only the public part of the debt and there is a surplus of $187bn – more than twice as much as is needed to preserve the stability of the currency, leaving the government in a comfortable cash positive position.

Even taking into account an expected 15% contraction in the size of the Russian economy in 2022, that will still leave the Russian government with healthy surplus and a gross deficit – including public and private debt – of some 14% of GDP.

These calculations do not take into account the circa $100bn of revenues the government has earned as a windfall from the super-high commodity prices, and especial oil exports, in the first quarter. However, at the same time reserves have fallen by $43.8bn since the start of the war rather than this surplus accumulating as fresh reserves.

As the CBR has stopped reporting trade and reserves numbers since the start of the war, it is unclear what happened to this circa $150bn but it appears to have been spent on the war, used to prop up state-owned companies and banks or disappeared oversees as capital flight.

Iranian Agents Attack Peaceful Protestors, This Time in Brussels

Written by

Clerical Regime Agents Attack MEK Supporters’ Rally Brussels in Support of Abadan Uprising

In a desperate reaction to the solidarity protests in various cities of Iran in support of Abadan’s uprising, the ruling dictatorship sent its agents and functionaries to disrupt the Mujahedin-e Khalq (MEK/PMOI) supporters’ rally in Brussels in support of Abadan’s uprising. The frantic act was also prompted by the regime’s anger and concerns about the consequences of the conviction of Assadollah Assadi, its diplomat-terrorist, arrested and convicted by a Belgian court for attempting to bomb the opposition’s grand gathering in Paris in 2018.

Mistaking Brussels streets with Abadan, the regime agents attacked and injured several demonstrators who repelled their assault. Belgian police arrested the agents.

The agents’ attack on MEK supporters rally in Brussels is the flipside of the attempt to bomb the Iranian Resistance Annual gathering in 2018 by a regime diplomat-terrorist and his three accomplices holding Belgian passports.

The Iranian Resistance again demands the arrest, trial, and revocation of the passports of the regime’s agents, the Quds Force and Intelligence Ministry’s mercenaries, their expulsion from European countries, and the prevention of such agents from entering European soil. This is a necessary move to counter the clerical regime’s unbridled terrorism and ensure the security of Iranian refugees and asylum seekers.

Secretariat of the National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI)

May 28, 2022

The National Council of Resistance of Iran (NCRI)

Topic Summary

The NCRI is an umbrella organization of Iranian dissident groups that shared a common opposition to the Ayatollah Khomeini and the Islamic Republic of Iran. It was founded in Paris in 1981 by Masoud Rajavi, the leader of the MeK/PMOI/MKO, and Abol-Hassan Banisadr. Since 1983, it has been exclusively controlled by the MeK... The NCRI's United States operation has also been listed as a foreign terrorist organization.

RAND CORP.

National Council of Resistance of Iran - Wikipedia

Iraqi farmers in distress as severe water shortages affect wheat harvest


Iraqi farmers work in their fields north of Mosul.
(Reuters)

The Associated Press, Baghdad
Published: 29 May ,2022

Salah Chelab crushed a husk of wheat plucked from his sprawling farmland south of Baghdad and inspected its seeds in the palm of one hand. They were several grams lighter than he hoped.

“It’s because of the water shortages,” he said, the farm machine roaring behind him, cutting and gathering his year’s wheat harvest.

Chelab had planted most of his 10 acres (4 hectares) of land, but he was only able to irrigate a quarter of it after the Agriculture Ministry introduced strict water quotas during the growing season, he said. The produce he was growing on the rest of it, he fears, “will die without water.”

At a time when worldwide prices for wheat have soared due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Iraqi farmers say they are paying the price for a government decision to cut irrigation for agricultural areas by 50 percent.

The government took the step in the face of severe water shortages arising from high temperatures and drought — believed to be fueled by climate change — and ongoing water extraction by neighboring countries from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers. All those factors have heavily strained wheat production.

Wrestling with the water shortage, Iraq’s government has been unable to tackle other long-neglected issues.

Desertification has been blamed as a factor behind this year’s relentless spate of sandstorms. At least 10 have hit the country in the past few months, covering cities with a thick blanket of orange dust, grounding flights, and sending thousands to hospitals.

“We need water to solve the problem of desertification, but we also need water to secure our food supplies,” said Essa Fayadh, a senior official at the Environment Ministry. “We don’t have enough for both.”

Iraq relies on the Tigris and Euphrates rivers for nearly all of itswater needs. Both flow into Iraq from Turkey and Iran. Those countries have constructed dams that have either blocked or diverted water, creating major shortages in Iraq.

Water Resources Minister Mahdi Rasheed told The Associated Press that river levels were down 60 percent compared to last year.

For Chelab, less water has meant a smaller grain size and lower crop yields.

In 2021, Chelab produced 30,000 tons of wheat, the year before that 32,000, receipts from Trade Ministry silos show. This year, he expects no more than 10,000.

His crops are both rain-fed and irrigated via a channel from the Euphrates. Due to low precipitation levels, he has had to rely on the river water during the growing season, he said.

Government officials say change is necessary.

The current system has been inefficient and unsustainable for decades. Water scarcity is leaving them no choice but to push to modernize antiquated and wasteful farming techniques.

“We have a strategic plan to face drought considering the lack of rain, global warming, and the lack of irrigation coming from neighboring countries as we did not get our share of water entitlements,” said Hamid al-Naif, spokesman at the Agriculture Ministry.

The ministry took measures to devise new types of drought-resistant wheat and introduce methods to increase crop yields.

“We are still dealing with irrigation systems of the 1950s. It has nothing to do with the farmers,” he said. “The state must make it efficient, we must force the farmer to accept it.”

Iraqi farmers have historically been heavily dependent on the state in the production of food, a reliance that policymakers and experts said drains government funds.

The Agriculture Ministry supports farmers by providing everything from harvesting tools, seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides at a subsidized rate or for free. Water diverted from rivers for irrigation is given at no cost. The Trade Ministry then stores or buys produce from farmers and distributes it to markets.

Wheat is a key strategic crop, accounting for 70 percent of total cereal production in the country.

Planting starts in October and harvest typically begins in April and extends to June in some areas. Last year, the Agriculture Ministry slashed subsidies for fertilizers, seeds, and pesticides, a move that has angered farmers.

Local demand for the staple is between 5-6 million tons a year. But local production is shrinking with each passing year. In 2021, Iraq produced 4.2 million tons of wheat, according to the Agriculture Ministry. In 2020, it was 6.2 million tons.

“Today we might get 2.5 million tons at best,” said al-Naif. That would require Iraq to drive up imports.

Most of the wheat harvest is usually sold to the Trade Ministry. In a sign of the low harvest, so far there are currently only 373,000 tons of wheat available in Trade Ministry storehouses, al-Naif said.

To meet demands amid the recent global crisis in the grain market, the government recently changed a policy to allow all Iraqi farmers to sell their produce to the Trade Ministry silos. Previously, this was limited to farmers who operated within the government plan.

Back in Chelab’s farm, the wheat is ready to be transported to the silo.

“It’s true we need to develop ourselves,” he said. “But the change should be gradual, not immediate.”











A combine harvester at the middle of a wheat field harvesting crops in Yousifiyah, Iraq Tuesday, May. 24, 2022. 

At a time when worldwide prices for wheat have soared due to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, Iraqi farmers say they are paying the price for a government decision to cut irrigation for agricultural areas by 50% due to severe water shortages arising from high temperatures, drought, climate change and ongoing water extraction by neighboring countries from the Tigris and Euphrates rivers - all factors that have heavily strained wheat production. (AP Photo/Hadi Mizban)



Significantly lower water levels are seen on the Tigris River, in Baghdad, Iraq, Saturday, May 28, 2022. 


Planned Jewish nationalist “flag march” is a festival of hate

Tamara Nassar
29 May 2022


Israeli Jewish nationalists march through Jerusalem as part of the annual “March of the Flags” to celebrate Israel’s occupation and colonization of East Jerusalem on 15 June 2021. Baraah Abo RamouzAPA images

Thousands of Israeli Jewish nationalists intend on staging a major provocation in occupied East Jerusalem on 29 May, despite warnings from the Palestinian resistance in Gaza.

The Jewish extremists plan to hold their annual “March of the Flags” on what they call Jerusalem Day, an Israeli-invented holiday celebrating its occupation and colonization of the city in 1967.

In previous years, the event has been a festival of hate, with marchers, including children terrorizing Palestinian residents and chanting such genocidal slogans as “death to the Arabs,” Let Palestine be “wiped out” and “Muhammad is dead” – a denigrating reference to the prophet.

Fully knowing this, Israeli police have nonetheless approved a route for Sunday that would allow the Jewish extremists to march through the Muslim Quarter of the Old City, as they have done in previous years.

But occupation authorities have said they will “cap” the number of marchers to 16,000.

“Half the group will march through the Old City via the Damascus Gate, while the other half will go through Jaffa Gate, likely only skirting the Muslim Quarter,” according to The Times of Israel.

Israel will also deploy 3,000 officers to “secure the rally.”

But that will offer little comfort to Palestinians, who still face the prospects of thousands of anti-Palestinian extremists, backed by occupation forces, forcing their way through the Old City’s narrow streets.

The Jewish nationalists also know very well that Israeli police almost never subject them to the kind of brutality regularly used against Palestinians: tear gas, live fire and rubber-coated metal bullets. This means that if they decide to defy police orders, they will be able to do so with impunity.

Sunday’s march is set to take place despite stern warnings from the Palestinian resistance organization Hamas.

Ismail Haniyeh, the head of Hamas’ political bureau, said in a pre-recorded message on Monday that the group is prepared to defend the al-Aqsa mosque compound using “all capabilities.”

Haniyeh warned “the enemy not to commit such crimes,” adding, “Our decision is clear, no hesitation or faltering.”

Last year, Israeli attacks on Jerusalem and the al-Aqsa mosque compound led to a military confrontation between Palestinian resistance factions in Gaza and Israel that lasted 11 days and killed more than 250 Palestinians.

It was the first time Palestinian resistance groups launched a major military operation from Gaza specificially in response to Israeli aggression in Jerusalem. This denies Israel the assurance that it can carry on as it wishes in the city without risking a much broader confrontation it may want to avoid.

Israeli police chief Kobi Shabtai raised alert levels in Jerusalem ahead of the march. Israel is also reportedly contacting Hamas through mediators in Qatar and Egypt in a bid to keep violence from escalating.

“We’re coming to dismantle the Dome of the Rock”


Meanwhile, on Saturday, left-wing Israeli groups planned to raze a settlement outpost in the occupied West Bank. Israeli police clamped down on the protest and arrested activists.

Prior to the event, the groups had published a flyer on Facebook proclaiming, “We’re coming to dismantle the Homesh outpost.” It shows a bulldozer destroying a building.

The flyer also bears the logos of the liberal Zionist groups sponsoring the event, including Peace Now and Breaking the Silence.

The construction of all Israeli settlements in the occupied West Bank is a war crime under international law.

But Homesh, an outpost near Nablus, is not authorized by Israel. It is one of the four tiny West Bank settlements removed in 2005, at the same time that Israel removed its occupation forces and settlers from the interior of the Gaza Strip.

But some settlers have maintained an unauthorized presence in Homesh with the tacit support of Israeli leaders.

Bentzi Gopstein, the head of the extremist Jewish nationalist group Lehava, posted a photoshopped version of the flyer on his Telegram channel.

The text was changed to read, “We’re coming to dismantle the Dome of the Rock.” An image of the Jerusalem shrine that is part of the al-Aqsa mosque compound was inserted under the teeth of the bulldozer.

Gopstein may have been trolling the liberal Zionist groups, but many Jewish nationalists like him are open about their intentions to destroy the Muslim holy sites.

The so-called Temple Movement, which enjoys support from many Israeli leaders, aims to take over the al-Aqsa mosque compound and build a Jewish temple there.

This apocalyptic plan, if implemented, could ignite a global religious war. It is why Palestinians insist on defending Jerusalem, particularly their holy sites, from any further settler encroachment.
Yemeni civil society pushes for opening of roads to the city of Taiz despite Houthi reluctance

29 MAY 2022


Yemeni civil society groups are campaigning actively for the opening of roads connecting the Yemeni city of Taiz with other major urban centres despite reluctance by the Houthi rebel group.

UN Special Envoy, Hans Grundberg, on Saturday (28 May) concluded an initial round of discussions in Amman, Jordan, attended by representatives of government and rebels on options to open key roads in Taiz and other governorates, as per the UN-mediated truce agreement signed in April.

A proposal for the phased re-opening of roads, including an implementation mechanism and guarantees for the safety of civilian travelers was drawn up based on the three-day discussions and options presented by both sides.

“It is promising that the parties met face-to-face to discuss the issue of road openings for the first time in years. I now call on the parties to conclude their internal deliberations urgently and deliver positive results to the Yemeni people,” said Mr. Grundberg. “Lifting restrictions on the freedom of movement of people and goods will not only have a positive impact on alleviating the suffering of the Yemeni people and reviving the economy, but will also help cultivate confidence in the political process.”

Civil society actors and local mediators, many of whom are from Taiz, also took part in the discussions by offering their insights and expertise as well as practical options for road openings.

“The role of civil society in those discussions proved to be indispensable, as they offered a compass to all those involved, including the UN, for prioritizing the interests and lived experiences of Yemeni women, men and children,” said Mr. Grundberg.

Media sources in Amman say that the talks were on the verge of collapse on Friday, with the Yemeni government threatening to walk away after the Houthis refused to open the main roads that link the city of Taiz with Hodeidah, Aden and Sanaa, suggesting only opening a narrow mountain route.

Maj. Mohammed Abdullah Al-Mahmoudi, deputy head of the Yemeni government delegation on Taiz, told Arab News that it had insisted on lifting the Houthis’ siege of the city by opening the main roads.

Dozens of human rights groups, activists, government officials and Taiz residents have launched a new campaign on social media, using hashtag #Siege_of_Taiz_crime, calling for the opening of roads to the city.

Yemenis widely circulated images of cars loaded with goods and fuel overturning on the steep and unpaved slopes drivers were forced to turn to after the Houthis blocked the city’s main entrances.


PARTIES’ MILITARY COORDINATION COMMITTEE CONVENES FIRST MEETING UNDER THE TRUCE


AMMAN, 28 May 2022 – The Office of the Special Envoy for Yemen convened today the first meeting of the military coordination committee comprised of representatives of the parties in Amman, Jordan.

The meeting was attended by military representatives of the Government of Yemen, Ansar Allah and the Coalition Joint Forces Command and chaired by the UN Envoy’s military adviser Brigadier General Antony Hayward. Constructive discussions focused on setting up a robust coordination mechanism for regular dialogue and communication to de-escalate and address incidents that impact civilians and threaten to derail the truce.

“It is critical that parties have a neutral space to talk and interact with each other honestly, respectfully and freely with a focus on solutions,” Brig. Gen. Hayward stressed.

Representatives discussed options for a joint mechanism that will be tasked with addressing and de-escalating strategic and operational military and security incidents of concern in a timely manner.

“This first in-person meeting of military representatives of the parties in a long time to discuss how to improve dialogue and communication between them is a crucial step towards building trust and supporting the political process,” said Mr. Grundberg. “The parties should continue those positive steps by ensuring the continuation of the work of this coordination committee.”

The representatives agreed to hold a follow up meeting.

AUSTRALIA
Historic gain for Greens as party claims victory in seat of Brisbane

Stephen Bates says the outcome reflects "an uprising by young people at this election".


Greens candidate for the seat of Brisbane Stephen Bates with Greens senator Larissa Waters. 
Credit: David Parry/PA

The Australian Greens Party has declared victory in the Queensland seat of Brisbane, gaining a fourth seat in the House of Representatives.

"Stephen Bates has won the seat of Brisbane for the Greens, taking the QLD seat from the Liberals," the party said in a statement.

The development comes after a close race and a tense week of vote counting in the inner city seat which covers the city of Brisbane.

Greens close in on record number of seats in federal parliament, Pauline Hanson likely to retain Senate spot

Mr Bates beat our Labor hopeful Madonna Jarrett in a tight contest.

The 29-year-old retail worker describes himself as a proud gay man who will make it his priority to advocate in particular for young people.

“There has been an uprising by young people at this election," he said.

“As one of the youngest members of the new Parliament, I believe my election is a message that the young people of Australia refuse to be pushed out any longer.

"We need action on climate, the housing and rental crisis, mental health into Medicare student debt and job insecurity."


The win is the third for the Greens in Queensland, who also took the seat of Ryan and Griffith. The party's leader, Adam Bandt, also holds the seat of Melbourne in Victoria.

Outgoing Liberal MP Trevor Evans conceded defeat last Saturday as despite leading the three-candidate preferred count, he is unlikely to retain his seat.

Greens leader Adam Bandt said the result reflects growing support for the party, which now also has 12 MPs in the Senate after winning six additional upper house seats at this election.

"The greenslide continues. The Greens will be the most powerful third party in the Parliament.


"Stephen’s fantastic win means the Liberals’ defeat is even more profound and we are in a stronger position to push the Albanese government to take action on climate and inequality."

The Australian Electoral Commission on Friday released new data showing an unusual three-candidate preferred status for Brisbane and Macnamara in Victoria, which still remains in doubt.

In Macnamara, incumbent Labor MP Josh Burns has taken a slight lead over his Greens rival Steph Hodgins-May with Liberal candidate Colleen Harkin trailing.

Liberal candidate Andrew Constance is 253 votes ahead of sitting Labor MP Fiona Phillips in the NSW electorate of Gilmore, with postal votes slightly favouring Mr Constance.

The commission had Labor with 75 seats to the coalition's 59, the Greens with three seats, and 12 on the cross bench.

Manitoba rural teachers' union calls for more support for gender-diverse students

Yesterday 
The Canadian Press

Arural Manitoba teachers' union says it’s time for the Seine River School Division (SRSD) to clearly lay out in writing the ways that they can and will support transgendered and gender-diverse students, because he said if those students don’t feel supported, it could have negative and long-lasting implications on their lives, and on their futures.

“We want to support our students, and we want to make sure they feel supported,” Seine River Teachers’ Association (SRTA), president Jonathan Waite said, while speaking to the Winnipeg Sun on Friday.

“We don’t ever want to go down the wrong path even once, because we know that can have serious implications on the path that students can go down.”

On May 24, Waite, the head of an organization that represents more than 350 educators and staff in SRSD, and a small delegation, appeared before the SRSD board of trustees, requesting they take steps to create regulations and policies specific to supporting transgendered and gender-diverse students.

Waite said the division, which has schools spread over a large area of rural southeastern Manitoba, in communities such as Lorette, St Adophe and La Salle, has “comprehensive” diversity and safety policies in place, but he feels those policies could be “enhanced” if there were more written policy specific to supporting transgendered youth.

“We want to walk hand in hand with those students and support them, so it is always good to have something written down, so an educator can say, ‘I can point to that to understand what I have to do, and what my role is.’”

Waite said the policy would cover issues such as self-identification, washroom access, parental consent, names and pronouns, dress codes, and field trips.

“We wanted to bring the trustees up to speed on all the great work that has happened in the division, and also on some of the challenges as well,” Waite said.

Waite said the SRSD board passed a motion during the meeting referring the matter to their governance committee, and do plan to continue having discussions about the issue, and about the need for policies to be put in place.

He called the SRSD board “very receptive” to the presentation, and said he does believe progress will be made on the issue moving forward.

“From what I could see and what the board was saying, I do believe they see this as an excellent idea, and want to work with us, and with their governance committee on this,” Waite said.

“This board has been really good about making sure they know how important it is that we are a diverse and accepting school division.”

A study released in 2018, by the National Library of Medicine, stated that mental health disparities faced by transgender youth in Canada are “considerable.”

“Transgender youth had a higher risk of reporting psychological distress, self-harm, major depressive episode, suicidal ideation, and suicide attempts,” the report states.

The report stated that the findings “underscore the need for policies and laws protecting transgender people from discrimination, and further development of transgender-specific interventions to promote positive mental health, and reduce mental health problems among transgender youth.”

Waite said it is now crucial that transgender and gender-diverse youth feel supported in SRSD, or the negative impacts on some students could be long-lasting and traumatic.

“If we don’ support the students as far as their identity and their future, then we are potentially causing harm and trauma,” he said. “So if this policy can help even one student from being harmed, than this will be a great policy.”

— Dave Baxter is a Local Journalism Initiative reporter who works out of the Winnipeg Sun. The Local Journalism Initiative is funded by the Government of Canada.

Dave Baxter, Local Journalism Initiative Reporter, Winnipeg Sun
Opinion: Protect Edmonton's river valley from death by a thousand ruts

Geoffrey Pounder - Yesterday 

Mountain bikers have spoken loud and clear. Now it is time for conservationists to speak up. No second chances to save our river valley.


© Provided by Edmonton Journal
A mountain biker on a trail near the Whitemud Equine centre. File photo.

Bikers are trying to roll back the conservation efforts of past generations. Strip protection from “preservation” areas — open only to foot-traffic. Even as green space dwindles , and the remainder faces increasing pressure from increasing traffic and climate change. Does this make sense?

As the city recognized decades ago, mountain biking in sensitive natural areas is unsustainable.

What about safety? Can fast-moving bikes on winding, narrow trails safely mix with pedestrians? No one likes to be startled by bikers coming from behind without warning. Why should a family on a Sunday stroll stay alert for bikers?

Horseback riders, golfers, sledders, and skiers all have their space. Bikers deserve space too. Outside sensitive natural areas.

But bikers want to go everywhere. They claim they cause no more damage to trails than foot traffic. But the issue is not what bikers do on city trails. The problem is the proliferation of new trails — most constructed without city oversight.

Do biking, new trails, tree-cutting, and obstacle courses really have the same impact as hikers keeping to the path?

An ever-expanding network of trails with increasing traffic fragments habitat, speeds erosion, increases run-off, and muddies streams. Bikes crush plants and compress the soil. Some ride in stream beds. Issues bikers ignore.

Bikers, not hikers, propose a network of new trails throughout the river valley. If they do not get their way, they warn that illegal trails will be built and used , regardless.

Inexplicably, parks officials permitted the Edmonton Mountain Bike Alliance (EMBA) to build trails in the river valley without oversight. Sidelining other stakeholders. The result? The city has no idea. As the “ Ribbon of Green + Mountain Biking FAQ ” states:

“ Most of the single-track trail network was built by trail users and the city has not had oversight of the construction of these trails, some of which are found in sensitive areas, so we don’t know the ecological impact they have had.”

The city failed to follow its own policies. The proposed solution? Downgrading trail status in preservation areas effectively strips protection from adjacent parkland. The city’s original decision to restrict preservation areas to foot traffic was correct. The science has not changed.

Will the city buckle? Will officials dither until sensitive natural areas and the biodiversity corridor are damaged beyond repair? How much more habitat is the city willing to sacrifice?

No, damage by hikers does not justify damage by bikers or vice versa. No, trail repair does not negate damage done by an expanding network of new trails, tree-cutting, off-trail riding, and landscape modification.

No, hikers do not want to keep the valley pristine wilderness for themselves and mountain goats. The balance has already tipped. Our duty is to pass on our natural legacy unimpaired to future generations. Save what little is left before it is gone — for all citizens, future generations, and other species.

No more outsourcing trail management. Close all unauthorized trails. Close bike trails in preservation areas. No more trails without oversight. Base parks policy on science. Identify and protect sensitive areas, restore ecological integrity, halt inappropriate activities, hire park rangers, and enforce the rules.

Across North America, this same battle has been replayed over and over. Now it is Edmonton’s turn to stand up. Protect our river valley.


Born and raised in Edmonton, Geoffrey Pounder is an advocate for nature and cycling — in the right places.





B.C. wants First Nations to agree before old-growth logging deferred on shared lands

Yesterday 

The British Columbia government wants First Nations to reach consensus before logging is deferred in old-growth forests on shared Indigenous territories.

Tara Marsden, sustainability director for the Gitanyow Nation's hereditary chiefs' office in northwestern B.C., said consensus represents a "high bar" in a complex process, which was not made clear when Forests Ministry staff introduced the province's deferral plan last November.

"I think the public who are concerned about old growth need to know that high bar, that it's very challenging to work in this landscape with multiple nations," said Marsden, the main point contact for her nation on deferrals.

Marsden said she had initially understood from the ministry's messaging that "if you support these (deferral areas), they're going to be protected."

Instead, there was an "unspoken expectation" from the province that consensus among nations with overlapping territories was needed, she said.

The B.C. government announced last fall that an independent panel of ecologists and forestry experts had mapped 2.6 million hectares of old-growth forests at risk of permanent biodiversity loss. It asked 204 First Nations to determine within 30 days whether they supported the temporary deferral of logging in those areas, or if they needed more time to decide.

Forests Minister Katrine Conroy told The Canadian Press that if consensus on deferrals could not be reached among First Nations with overlapping or shared territories, the province would assess the strengths of their claims.

"We can't automatically go with one deferral over another if nations aren't in agreement," Conroy said. "So we're trying to work that out and staff are working really hard with nations to look at, you know, what can we do to reach consensus, but in the end, it becomes an issue of strength of claim."

Asked how often shared territories are affecting deferrals,Conroy said there have been "some issues with some nations, but it hasn't been a lot."

Any deferrals would initially last two years, allowing for consultation with First Nations about forestry in their territories, the minister said last fall.

After that, the at-risk old growth would either remain off limits for logging or be included in new, more sustainable management plans, she said.

Last month, Conroy announced that the province had so far approved logging deferral on 1.05 million hectares of old growth identified by the expert panel. Out of the 204 First Nations, the province had heard from 188, of which 75 had agreed to the deferrals in their territories, she said.

Meanwhile, about 7,200 hectares of the at-risk old growth have been logged since the government announced the deferral plan, the Forests Ministry said.

The province was clear that 50,000 hectares of the 2.6 million identified by the panel overlap with cutting permits approved before November, it said.

Marsden said her nation hadworked hard to review and confirm their support for the deferrals in Gitanyow territory before Christmas.

It wasn't until she followed up with Forests Ministry staff this month that a regional manager told Marsden the deferrals weren't going ahead.

Portions of the proposed deferrals overlap with an area affected by the Nisga'a Treaty, and Marsden said she was told the Nisga'a weren't supporting the deferrals because they're invested in the forest industry in those areas.

The Forests Ministry later told The Canadian Press the deferrals in Gitanyow territory were implemented "with the exception of a small localized area."

A statement from the Nisga'a Lisims Government said the nation had yet to decide on the proposed deferral plan, "but instead continue to evaluate it and how it may affect our interests."

They've been meeting with forest licensees to understand how the deferrals may affect them and Nisga'a members working in the industry, it said.

Asked whether the ministry's communication could have be better, Conroy said "staff have been working full out" to help First Nations and determine if they need a portion of $12.7 million earmarked for the deferral process.

Terry Teegee, regional chief of the B.C. Assembly of First Nations, said the province's old-growth deferral process is still "a space where there's a lot of unknowns" and more clarity is needed when it comes to shared territories.

"On one hand, we as Indigenous nations do want to figure some of these things out on our own, but what if there is differences of opinion, then what?" he said.

First Nations are being asked to come to the decision-making table when many are stretched thin, with limited capacity and resources, Teegee said.

"Overall, what we need to do, is to really develop that space so we can have meaningful dialogue and come to an ability to make those decisions."

Gitanyow's situation underscores what Marsden sees as a problem with B.C.'s deferral process — a lack of compensation for First Nations and forestry companies that could lose revenue if old growth is off limits.

It puts the onus on multiple nations to agree on deferrals in shared or overlapping territories, she said, while "there's no financial compensation to say, 'Okay, well, you're actually not going to lose out on your investment.' "

The deferral process also lacks support for independent analysis that would help First Nations and the logging industry understand the potential effects on local jobs and revenue and how those could be managed, she added.

Conroy said First Nations hold diverse perspectives on managing old growth.

Some have "invested years getting involved in the forest industry, and they really consider it part of their path to economic independence," she said.

"We've had a number of people say to us, 'Well why didn't you just pay the nations?' and it's, you know, it's quite colonialist," Conroy said.

"We are respecting nations' wants, wishes and needs, and that's part of reconciliation. We need to respect that if a nation is involved in harvesting ... we need to respect that. If they want to defer, we need to respect that."

Compensation "never came up as an issue" in B.C.'s engagement on the deferral process with First Nations rights and title holders, Conroy added.

The province recognized that funding would be required to support permanent protection of old growth over the longer term, she said.

Where a First Nation has agreed to the proposed deferral areas,companies or communities who hold harvesting rights may voluntarily avoid those areas, or the minister may issue an order to prevent old-growth logging.

Under B.C.'s Forest Act, compensation is not required until at least four years have passed from the time the minister issues the order.

So far, the province has not had to issue any orders and "many" companies have indicated they will not proceed with logging in proposed deferral areas where discussions with First Nations are ongoing, the Forests Ministry said.

B.C.'s 2022 budget allocated $185 million over three years to support forestry workers, First Nations and others who may be affected by deferrals, as well as legislative changes that Conroy said would "reshape" forest management.

The vision is for a forest sector that "delivers higher value from our forests, with secure, long-term jobs and healthier ecosystems," she said last fall.

The province also announced last month that it was doubling the amount of Crown forestry revenues shared with First Nations, an increase of $63 million this year, while it works on a new revenue-sharing model for the long term.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published May 28, 2022.

Brenna Owen, The Canadian Press
The salt debate: Not all scientists agree on how much sodium is too much

When Dr. Salim Yusuf began publishing research and commentaries a decade ago suggesting that sharp reductions in salt intake don’t improve heart health, the medical world sat up and took notice.

Relying on the conventional scientific wisdom, the World Health Organization recommends consuming less than two grams of sodium — five grams of salt — a day. Health Canada, the Mayo Clinic and other health bodies suggest no more each day than 2.3 grams, about a teaspoon of salt.

Tom Blackwell - Tuesday
 National Post

Not only did the work contradict years of conventional wisdom, but Yusuf is among this country’s most celebrated cardiovascular scientists, an Order of Canada member and one of the top 20 most-cited health researchers ever.

The salt papers were published in some of the world’s foremost medical journals. Much of the attention they attracted, though, was less than flattering.

An international group of scientists recently accused the McMaster University professor and his collaborators of conducting fatally flawed studies, with findings that are further tainted by conflicts of interest with the drug and food industries.

The research has slowed efforts to get people to consume less sodium, a leading trigger of high blood pressure and the harm it causes, they say.

The critics group, led by Dr. Norman Campbell of the University of Calgary, recently took the complaints to a surprising new level, asking Jean-Yves Duclos, the federal health minister, to launch an inquiry into the work by Yusuf and his colleagues and alerting McMaster to its concerns.


Their efforts have not exactly borne fruit. Yusuf was just awarded the Canada Council’s $100,000 Killam prize for research excellence, the agency calling him “among the most accomplished medical researchers in the world.”

The Campbell group demanded that the prize be revoked. It was not. Meanwhile, Health Canada says it never even received the letter asking for an inquiry.


But debate over the issue continues, both sides convinced they’re right, guidelines on heart healthy diets perhaps hanging in the balance.

“They’re making inaccurate and false statements and misleading statements and misinterpretations and they’re not correcting things that are obviously flawed,” said Campbell in an interview. “This is a global aggravation for people who are trying to improve the health of their populations.”

In a paper published last October, he and 24 colleagues from Harvard to Johns Hopkins and the University of London, lambasted the McMaster research. Some scientists have “propagated a myth” that curbing sodium does not steadily reduce cardiovascular disease, they said, while noting pointedly that salt is an important profit-maker for the food industry.

But Yusuf and his colleagues say they’re bewildered by the fierce opposition their ideas have provoked. It seems like a case of scholars with entrenched opinions refusing to seriously consider evidence that challenges the status quo, they say.

To ask politicians now to intervene in what is essentially a scientific debate is wholly unwarranted, said Yusuf. He only learned about the request for a federal investigation when informed by the National Post.

“It’s almost like a vendetta,” he said. “I don’t know what the basis of this is…. It’s just mudslinging, there’s nothing in it at all.”

Health Canada said it could not comment on the call for an inquiry because it failed to receive the request, though the senders say other recipients copied on the same email did.

Ironically, both sides agree on one fact: excessive consumption of salt and other forms of sodium is dangerously unhealthy.

The more sodium humans take in, the more water the body retains to essentially wash it away, which in turn boosts the pressure at which blood is pushed through arteries and veins. And high blood pressure leads to heart attacks, strokes and death. In fact, hypertension has been called the world’s leading cause of mortality, with sodium a culprit in as many as 30 per cent of cases.

The difference of opinion comes down to exactly what constitutes too much sodium. And at the heart of that disagreement is a fight, oddly enough, over urine — or at least how it should be tested to accurately measure sodium intake.

Relying on the conventional scientific wisdom, the World Health Organization recommends consuming less than two grams of sodium — five grams of salt — a day. Health Canada, the Mayo Clinic and other health bodies suggest no more each day than 2.3 grams, about a teaspoon of salt.

A 2017 Health Canada report estimated the average intake in this country was 2.8 grams.

Underpinning those recommendations are studies like the Harvard University-led TOHP trial in the United States in the late 1980s and early 1990s. About 4,500 people were divided into groups of subjects who received either general healthy lifestyle advice, or weekly group and individual counselling on how to reduce their sodium intake.

Both sodium consumption and blood pressure fell in the sodium-counselling groups, the researchers found. And then in a later follow-up study, they concluded that those who had received the salt-reduction help were 25 per cent less likely to suffer strokes, heart attacks and other cardiovascular events in the subsequent 10 to 15 years.

Other carefully controlled studies have reached similar conclusions — a straight-line reduction in hypertension as people take in less sodium, said the recent paper by Campbell and colleagues.

One of the first, inadvertent challenges to that understanding came in 2009, when Yusuf and his colleagues decided to look at the issue as part of two large studies they ran, focused mainly on testing blood pressure drugs. About 28,000 people in 40 countries were enrolled in a sidebar sodium study.

Each of the participants — all at risk of cardiovascular disease — had their sodium intake measured by looking at secretions of the mineral in samples of their urine.

What the scientists found jolted them. Instead of that straight-line reduction in heart-and-stroke-related illness as sodium levels fell, the rate of those problems dipped, then actually rose again at estimated sodium intake amounts of lower than three grams a day — making for a J-shaped curve.

In other words, not only did cutting sodium below a certain point not lead to better cardiovascular health, it looked like those lower levels might actually increase the risk of disease.

“We thought ‘That’s peculiar,’” recalls McMaster epidemiology Prof. Andrew Mente, one of the study’s authors. “Then we sat on that data for two years. We did everything we could to make it go away, and we couldn’t make it go away, no matter how you analyze the data.”

They published the results in the prestigious Journal of the American Medical Association in 2011, and the fight was on.

The team followed up with a parallel study of 102,000 subjects from 17 countries in another McMaster-led international research project called PURE.

The results, published in the equally high-profile New England Journal of Medicine, were similar to the earlier ones.

They also argue the earlier evidence, like the TOHP trials, failed to show that reducing sodium to the recommended levels improved health.

For Mente, the takeaway advice is to keep sodium consumption no higher than four or five grams a day, and not worry about cutting it much below three grams.

“The bottom line is, if low sodium is not helpful and may even increase the risk, it’s better to focus on the overall quality of the diet,” he said. “Reduce processed foods and focus on eating more fruits and vegetables and more potassium-containing foods — an all-around wellness diet.”

But critics of the work were quick to dismiss it as poorly conducted, not least because of a crucial, if esoteric, issue: how the levels of sodium intake were measured.

The gold-standard method is to collect all the urine someone produces in a 24-hour period and test for secreted sodium, then repeat the process on non-consecutive days. The McMaster-led team, though, did a single “fasting” or spot sample of urine right after their subjects woke up. Then they used what’s called the Kawasaki formula to essentially extrapolate how much sodium the person consumed over the course of a whole day.

Using the spot-sample method would necessarily distort the results, says the paper last fall critiquing the research, and not just because it paints an inaccurate picture of salt consumption.

That Kawasaki formula incorporates variables like age, weight and sex which themselves are independent predictors of cardiovascular illness, further muddying the results, said the paper.

A 2019 report by the U.S. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine came to a similar conclusion, saying the studies’ methods for measuring sodium intake “introduce important biases” that could affect the results.

“It’s tough and it’s tedious so people try to cut a lot of corners,” says Campbell about 24-hour sampling. With a single spot sample “studies are much easier to do, much less complex — and give you the wrong answers.”

Yusuf responds that conducting multiple 24-hour urine testing on a study population of 100,000 or more would be prohibitively expensive, and that the formula, while not perfect, has been shown to be reasonably accurate.

Meanwhile, some studies using the 24-hour method have had similar results, as have several others that employed spot-sampling, noted Mente.

Campbell also questions why the research was given such high-profile treatment. Big name medical journals appear too eager to publish such studies and overlook their alleged flaws, he says, perhaps because the controversial findings create a “man-bites-dog” sort of appeal that draws more readers.

Mente said their sodium studies have been subjected to intense peer review, which at the most prominent journals typically means vetting by half a dozen scientist-reviewers and two statisticians.

Then there is the question of conflict of interest, raised in both the letter to Duclos requesting a federal inquiry and the one to the Canada Council asking it to take back the award it gave Yusuf.

There’s some limited evidence of actual food industry funding in association with the McMaster group. A 2014 conference on nutrition and cardiovascular disease they ran received money from the Campbell Soup Company, ConAgra Foods Inc, Kraft Foods Group and PepsiCo Inc., its agenda indicated.

The PURE study lists about 70 funders, including several major public sector agencies, health charities and drug companies. And it says Brazil’s Unilever Health Institute and the South African Sugar Association gave money to branches of the project in those two countries.

But could there be another, more indirect conflict of interest in their research?

Juliet Guichon, a lawyer and University of Calgary professor of medicine who’s working with Campbell, points to the tens of millions of dollars in funding the McMaster group has received from pharmaceutical companies that produce blood pressure medication.

Yusuf and his colleagues have “consistently failed to acknowledge” money from such sources, said the letter asking that his Killam award be revoked, though at least some of that information is contained in journal papers and other material they’ve produced.


Mente dismisses the notion that funding from makers of blood pressure drugs could bias them against reducing salt consumption — a non-pharmaceutical approach to preventing hypertension and its consequences.

“That is completely far-fetched,” he said. “It’s ridiculous. I won’t even dignify that one.”

Campbell, meanwhile, contends that the sodium debate is not a clash between evenly matched scientific camps — it is “a relatively small group of dissenting scientists (versus) mainstream science.”

AS USUAL WITH RIGHT WINGERS AND LOBBYISTS

Yet those “dissenters” are providing ammunition to food companies loathe to reduce their products’ addictive salt content, he says. The industry is using the work to lobby countries against taking action to cut consumption, said the University of Calgary professor, undermining preventive health care that could save lives and curb spending.


But Yusuf says the science is in flux and their research has helped alter the sodium-hypertension paradigm. The critics are just unwilling to consider that things have changed, he said.

“(Campbell’s) enthusiasm for this as a crusader, you have to admire it,” says Dr. Martin O’Donnell, a professor of medicine at the National University of Ireland Galway and a regular collaborator with the McMaster group. “But at the same time, all scientific debate has to be based on respect, it has to be based on openness. It has to be based on entertaining different viewpoints.”