India's rejection of global environment report 'perilous'

by SciDev.Net

Pollution over the Taj Mahal. India has been identified by the Environmental Performance 

Index 2022 as the world's least environmentally sustainable country, but this has been 

rejected by the country's government.

 Credit: Buiobuione/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0

The principal investigator of a key environmental report that ranked India as the least environmentally sustainable country in the world has criticized the country's dismissal of the findings.

Reacting to India's rejection of the Environmental Performance Index (EPI) 2022, Martin Wolf said that "flatly rejecting data that underscores the severity of environmental issues is unproductive and perilous." He urged policymakers instead to use the findings to put the country back on track to a more sustainable future.

The EPI 2022 report, produced by Yale and Columbia universities and released on the World Environment Day (5 June), assessed and ranked 180 countries on 40 performance indicators covering climate change, environmental public health and ecosystem vitality.

India ranked last in the report and was categorized as the least environmentally sustainable country. Its close neighbors—Bangladesh, Bhutan, Nepal and Pakistan—have all scored better than India.

The indicators provide a gauge at a national scale of how close countries are to established environmental policy targets. A brief about the report on Yale University's website offers a scorecard that highlights "leaders and laggards" in environmental performance and provides practical guidance for countries that aspire to move toward a sustainable future.

According to the EPI report summary, high-scoring countries exhibit longstanding and continuing investments in policies that protect environmental health, preserve biodiversity and habitat, conserve natural resources, and decouple greenhouse gas emissions from economic growth.

Denmark tops the 2022 rankings—an achievement rooted in strong performance across nearly all issues tracked by the EPI, with notable leadership in efforts to promote a clean energy future and sustainable agriculture. The U.K. and Finland, placed second and third in the rankings, have earned high scores for slashing greenhouse gas emissions.

The U.S. is ranked 20th among 22 wealthy democracies and 43rd overall. This relatively low ranking reflects the rollback of environmental protections during the Trump Administration, the report summary explains, adding that U.S. withdrawal from the Paris Climate Agreement and weakened methane emissions rules, in particular, meant the U.S. lost precious time to mitigate climate change.

India rejects the report

Miffed by the findings in the report, India's Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change issued a strong rebuttal, asserting that some of the indicators used for assessing performance were "extrapolated and based on surmises and unscientific methods."

India insists on its own assessment, the Projected GhG Emissions levels in 2050. "This is computed based on average rate of change in emission of the last 10 years instead of modeling that takes into account a longer time period, extent of renewable energy capacity and use, additional carbon sinks, energy efficiency etc. of respective countries," the ministry's rebuttal stated.

The ministry argues that the country's forests and wetlands, which are crucial carbon sinks, were not factored in when calculating the projected greenhouse gas emissions trajectory up to 2050. It says the principle of equity, or per capita emissions, has also been given very low weight insisting that its contribution to global emissions is far less than the U.S. or EU.

Commenting on the EPI report, Sharachchandra Lele, distinguished fellow at the Bangalore-based AshokaTrust for Research in Ecology and the Environment, said that while the EPI report looks like "a flawed exercise," India's environmental performance has been "very poor in the past decade or so because the government is not serious about environmental issues."

Lele said that the environmental condition of a country is multi-dimensional and context-specific. "Trying to rank countries on the basis of a common aggregate performance index is a tricky exercise at the best of times, involving many value judgements as to which dimensions to include and how to weight them," he told SciDev.Net.

"The EPI's biased approach on climate mitigation has provided the government an excuse to reject the index altogether, even when it shows the poor performance on other fronts."

'We are concerned'

Wolf told SciDev.Net that the EPI team upholds the idea that data-driven environmental metrics can improve policymaking—but only if leaders embrace scientific insights and act on what the data is telling them.

"We are concerned that the Indian government has rejected the scientific basis underlying the 2022 EPI's analyses. The EPI provides a chance for all countries to reflect on their environmental performance, identify their most critical sustainability challenges, and work to revise and enhance their policies," Wolf said.

"We hope the Modi administration views the EPI as a tool to illustrate how empirically-grounded findings can improve India's environmental conditions on multiple fronts, including air quality, climate change and biodiversity."

He said the report highlighted how Indian policies remained "largely at odds with the principles of sustainable development," adding: "Air quality continues to worsen, greenhouse gas emissions are accelerating, and poor water quality kills hundreds of thousands of Indian residents each year.Air quality is leading environmental threat to public health, EPI report shows

Provided by SciDev.Net

From price shock to independence from fossil fuels

by Florian Meyer, ETH Zurich

Percent share of energy carriers covering Swiss transport and household energy demands

 in 2020 . Credit: Swiss Federal Office of Energy

Oil and gas prices are currently on the rise, raising questions about the security of Switzerland's energy supply. In a policy brief, researchers from the Energy Science Center at ETH Zurich have now shown what Switzerland can do to make its energy system independent of fossil fuels such as oil and natural gas.

Prices for oil and gas have risen sharply since Russia invaded Ukraine in February. This increase has also shown consumers in Switzerland how vulnerable a country's energy security can be if supply depends heavily on imports of natural gas and other fossil fuels. A relatively large proportion of Switzerland's energy is imported: according to figures from the Swiss Federal Office of Energy, Switzerland imported around half of its primary energy requirements via fossil fuels (oil, natural gas and coal) in 2020 alone. If imported nuclear fuel for electricity production in nuclear power plants is added, as much as 72% of the country's primary energy comes from abroad.

Should the energy-political conflict intensify or further conflicts emerge, this could end up threatening Switzerland's energy supply. In light of current energy-political developments and with a view to the climate policy goal of net zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, a logical strategy would be to drastically reduce dependence on foreign oil and gas imports. This is the conclusion reached by ETH energy researchers from the fields of mechanical engineering, electrical engineering and climate finance and policy in the policy brief "Steps to Fossil-Fuel Independence for Switzerland," published today.

The latest findings in condensed form

The policy brief was written by six professors and five scientists involved in energy research at ETH, who formed an expert group to tackle key questions about security of supply in Switzerland. The position paper outlines the ways in which Switzerland could increase its independence from fossil fuels in the coming years, and the political steps needed to achieve a fossil-free energy system with net zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050.

With the exception of one survey, the expert group did not conduct any new research, but rather summarized established scientific facts and findings—including available statistical data from the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) and the International Energy Agency (IEA)—to outline the need for action in terms of both policy and practice. The Security of Supply expert group will be followed by others in the future, and they will also address current issues from the energy sector.

Support for policy proposals. Credit: Patt & Steffen, 2022

Exchange with Europe is key

In the current position paper, ETH researchers conclude that a Swiss energy system that is free of greenhouse gases by 2050 is both technically and economically feasible—and the scientific basis for this was developed by researchers at the Paul Scherrer Institute (PSI) and ETH Zurich. They point out, however, that the costs and benefits of energy supply can vary greatly depending on the energy policy priorities and measures in place.

One example is cooperation with neighboring countries: in the future, Switzerland will still not always be able to produce enough electricity to ensure self-sufficient coverage of its entire domestic demand. When it comes to ensuring secure domestic supply, it will be a question of Switzerland working more closely with the European system.

"An isolated solution for the Swiss energy system is less efficient and massively more expensive than exchange with neighboring countries," says Christian Schaffner, Executive Director of the ESC, who coordinated the expert group's work together with Kirsten Oswald.

No silver bullet

Switzerland will achieve its greatest contribution to reducing energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions by electrifying transport and buildings, i.e. by phasing out fossil fuels such as petrol and kerosene and heating systems that run on oil or natural gas.

Proportion of respondents supporting three exemplary policies, according to political party

 preferences. Credit: Patt & Steffen, 2022

In industry, phasing out oil and natural gas will be more difficult, and it will require alternative fuels such as synthetic gas and hydrogen. The idea is for natural gas to only be used in conjunction with new negative emission technologies (NETs) that can capture and store CO2. "A net-zero energy system will be based on a diverse combination of technical, policy, and social measures. There's no silver bullet in the form of a single technology," says Schaffner. "The biggest challenges are not necessarily technical or economic, but social: without society's commitment, these ambitions cannot be achieved."

Acceptance of fossil fuel phase-out

It has already become apparent that the Swiss population's acceptance of the idea of phasing out oil and natural gas for heating residential buildings, or cars with combustion engines, has increased since the start of the war. This was revealed in a new representative survey conducted by ETH researchers Anthony Patt and Bjarne Steffen with 1,000 participants in April 2022 and incorporated into the position paper.

According to the survey, the Swiss support almost all political measures aimed at ending dependence on fossil fuels and promoting the use of renewable energies. The survey results also show broad support among the political parties for the expansion of domestic wind and solar energy as a substitute for fossil fuels.

The study is currently being reviewed and prepared for publication in a research journal. As a working paper, it is now publicly available together with the policy brief on the Energy Science Center website.

The energy turnaround won't happen on its own

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More information: Energy Science Center (2022). Steps to fossil-fuel independence for Switzerland. Policy brief of the expert group Security of Supply. ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/speci … rch/publications/ETH%20Zurich%20ESC%20Policy%20Brief_Steps%20to%20fossil-fuel%20independence_20220617.pdf

Patt, A., & Steffen, B. (2022). A historical turning point? Early evidence on how the Russia-Ukraine war changes public support for clean energy policies. Working paper of the survey: ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/speci … ch/publications/Patt%20Steffen%202022%20-%20Working%20paper%20public%20acceptance.pdf

Ramachandran Kannan et al, A net‐zero Swiss energy system by 2050: Technological and policy options for the transition of the transportation sector, Futures & Foresight Science (2022). DOI: 10.1002/FFO2.126

Florian Landis et al, Multi-model comparison of Swiss decarbonization scenarios, Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (2019). DOI: 10.1186/s41937-019-0040-8

Provided by ETH Zurich 

Agriculture emissions pose risks to health and climate

by Rice University

A study by Rice University environmental scientists analyzed the cost of reactive nitrogen

 emissions from fertilized agriculture and their risks to populations and climate. Nitrogen 

oxides (NOx) and ammonia (NH3) react to create air pollution in the form of particulate

 matter and ozone, while nitrous oxide (N2O) contributes to global warming and 

stratospheric ozone depletion. Credit: Lina Luo/Cohan Research Group

Agricultural pollution comes from the prairie, but its economic impact on humans is a problem for cities.

A study led by environmental scientists at Rice University's George R. Brown School of Engineering puts numbers to the toll of reactive nitrogen species produced in America's croplands.

The study led by Daniel Cohan, an associate professor of civil and environmental engineering, and graduate student Lina Luo quantifies emissions of nitrogen oxides, ammonia and nitrous oxide from fertilized soils over three years (2011, 2012 and 2017) and compares their impacts by region on air quality, health and climate.

While seasonal and regional impacts differ across types of emission, the study found total annual damages from ammonia were much larger overall—at $72 billion—than those from nitrogen oxides ($12 billion) and nitrous oxide ($13 billion).

Air pollution damages are measured by increased mortality and morbidity and the value of statistical life, while monetized damages from climate change include the threats to crops, property, ecosystem services and human health.

On that basis, the researchers found the health impact of air pollution from ammonia and nitrogen oxides, which react to form particulate matter and ozone, substantially outweighed climate impact from nitrous oxide in all regions and years.

The highest social costs arose from agriculture-heavy regions of California, Florida and the Midwest, where ammonia and nitrogen oxides form air pollution upwind of population centers. For both pollutants, emissions peak in the spring after fertilizers are applied.

The study in the American Chemical Society journal Environmental Science & Technology concludes air pollution, health and climate should all be considered in future assessments of how farming practices affect reactive nitrogen emissions.

"We always talk about how carbon dioxide and methane contribute to greenhouse gases, but nitrous oxide is about 300 times more potent than carbon dioxide for its global warming potential," Luo said.

She noted farming strategies that reduce greenhouse gases can increase air pollutants and vice versa. "We need to see if they can reduce all three nitrogen species—or make some tradeoffs—and still not decrease crop yield," Luo said.

Nitrogen is essential for crop growth, Cohan added, but the study shows the importance of controlling agricultural emissions has been largely neglected by air quality management and climate policy, even as the Environmental Protection Agency considers tightening air quality standards and the Biden administration seeks to slash greenhouse gas emissions.

He said federal agencies have focused on controlling transportation and industrial emissions, leaving agriculture as the largest source of damaging nitrogen pollutants in the United States, a problem exacerbated by climate change and increased crop production.

"Our group had been studying nitrogen oxide emissions for a number of years and began to realize that we can't just focus on that," Cohan said. "We needed to consider the range of emissions that come from soils, and we became curious about the relative impacts of different air pollutants and greenhouse gases the emanate from agricultural soils.

"A big part of our motivation was realizing that choices in farming practices might cause some emissions to go up and other emissions to go down," he said. For instance, switching from surface broadcast to deep injection of fertilizers would lower ammonia but raise nitrogen oxide emissions. That would benefit nearby cities sensitive to particulate matter levels, but harm regions where ozone is of more concern.

Cohan said when all the emissions are quantified on a monetary basis, ammonia and nitrogen oxides that form air-polluting particulate matter and ozone and contribute to global warming have the greatest impact.

"Those of us who study these pollutants for a living know how potent ammonia is, but the message hasn't gotten through to most regulators and policymakers," Cohan said. "In fact, ammonia is one of the most potent sources of particulate matter because of how it binds with other pollutants to have a multiplying effect.

"That's an important message: We need to take more steps to control ammonia," he said.

If there's a silver lining, Cohan said, it's that pollution from other sources has dropped enough to make agriculture's impact prevalent.

"What's crucial is to take steps that have more of the nitrogen go to the crops, and less of it be released to the air and water," he said. That could involve adding biochar or other amendments to soil, a topic of ongoing study at Rice.

"Before we can do that, we needed to establish a baseline of emissions coming from the soil," Cohan said. "This paper lays that out."Livestock and poultry farming should be the future focus of agricultural ammonia emissions control

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More information: Lina Luo et al, Integrated Modeling of U.S. Agricultural Soil Emissions of Reactive Nitrogen and Associated Impacts on Air Pollution, Health, and Climate, Environmental Science & Technology (2022). DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.1c08660

Journal information: Environmental Science & Technolo

Provided by Rice University 

Little penguins' food struggles

by Flinders University

Credit: Flinders University

The latest floods have drowned out memories of drought in many parts of Australia, but ecosystems and native species are still battling with the effects of drought and bushfire.

Now a new Flinders University study has found a strong link between the major impacts of the Millennium Drought (2001–10) and a South Australian little penguin (Eudyptula minor) colony which is perilously verged on the edge of survival.

Freshwater river inflows affected by the 10-year drought earlier this century had a major impact on the little penguin population's main fish food source, with the Encounter Bay population also doing battle with human interference and other impacts of climate change.

The current Granite Island population has fallen to only 20 adults while all other populations in Encounter Bay are now extinct, says Flinders University expert Dr. Diane Colombelli-Négrel, who coordinates annual census counts of numbers on Granite Island in Encounter Bay, south of Adelaide.

"The fact that the Granite Island little penguin population still had not recovered in 2020—after larger river outflows in 2012–13 and at the end of 2016—suggests that the population may have reached some critical reduction in the number of breeding birds during the drought period," a new article in Frontiers in Marine Science states.

The study found a strong association between little penguin numbers, the river outflow and one of their main local food sources, southern garfish, and suggests that ocean warming and other factors—such as predation and low juvenile survival—could also have contributed.

Little penguins are colonial seabirds that become central-place foragers during breeding, with most of their prey being captured within less than 60 km of their colony when feeding their chicks.

The coastal and estuarine environment at Victor Harbor's Encounter Bay, the Lower Lakes and Coorong depends on regular outflows from the mouth of the River Murray, which regularly closes during periods of drought.

"Given droughts are becoming more and more frequent, future studies are needed both within Australia and elsewhere to identify which species may be affected by hydrological droughts (including) for seabird conservation and river management," researchers conclude.

"The results of this study suggest that decisions regarding river water management should consider not only human and terrestrial environmental requirements, but also the long-term impacts that this may have for the coastal environment outside the river system."

Researchers also called for:

• Detailed studies to assess the diet and habits of long-nosed fur seals which compete for food in the area—and on the impacts of commercial fishing of southern garfishes and other food sources.
• Monitoring of coastal waters' sea surface temperatures and chlorophyll-a concentrations alongside rainfall and freshwater river outflows to support seabird and other marine life.
• Checks on effects on larval fish and predators numbers after increased nutrient loading from freshwater outflows raise phytoplankton and zooplankton production near river estuaries.
• Long-term impacts of coastal productivity after the average annual outflow at the location now ceasing to flow to the Murray Mouth 40% of the time compared to 5% before increased extraction for human use occurred.Southern Ocean's health affected by River Murray's ebb and flow    
More information: Diane Colombelli-Négrel et al, Combined Effects of Hydrological Drought and Reduced Food Availability on the Decline of the Little Penguins in South Australia, Frontiers in Marine Science (2022). DOI: 10.3389/fmars.2022.875259
Journal information: Frontiers in Marine Science
Provided by Flinders University

NATURAL CAPITAL

Scientists conceptualize a species 'stock market' to put a price tag on actions posing risks to biodiversity

by Pensoft Publishers

A fungal example of a digital species with rich metadata on systematics, ecology, DNA data, and collection localities. Credit: Dr Kessy Abarenkov

So far, science has described more than 2 million species, and millions more await discovery. While species have value in themselves, many also deliver important ecosystem services to humanity, such as insects that pollinate our crops.

Meanwhile, as we lack a standardized system to quantify the value of different species, it is too easy to jump to the conclusion that they are practically worthless. As a result, humanity has been quick to justify actions that diminish populations and even imperil biodiversity at large.

In a study, published in the scholarly open-science journal Research Ideas and Outcomes, a team of Estonian and Swedish scientists propose to formalize the value of all species through a conceptual species 'stock market' (SSM). Much like the regular stock market, the SSM is to act as a unified basis for instantaneous valuation of all items in its holdings.

However, other aspects of the SSM would be starkly different from the regular stock market. Ownership, transactions, and trading will take new forms. Indeed, species have no owners, and 'trade' would not be about transfer of ownership rights among shareholders. Instead, the concept of 'selling' would comprise processes that erase species from some specific area—such as war, deforestation, or pollution.

"The SSM would be able to put a price tag on such transactions, and the price could be thought of as an invoice that the seller needs to settle in some way that benefits global biodiversity," explains the study's lead author Prof. Urmas Kõljalg (University of Tartu, Estonia).

Conversely, taking some action that benefits biodiversity—as estimated through individuals of species—would be akin to buying on the species stock market. Buying, too, has a price tag on it, but this price should probably be thought of in goodwill terms. Here, 'money' represents an investment towards increased biodiversity.

"By rooting such actions in a unified valuation system it is hoped that goodwill actions will become increasingly difficult to dodge and dismiss," adds Kõljalg.

Interestingly, the SSM revolves around the notion of digital species. These are representations of described and undescribed species concluded to exist based on DNA sequences and elaborated by including all we know about their habitat, ecology, distribution, interactions with other species, and functional traits.

For the SSM to function as described, those DNA sequences and metadata need to be sourced from global scientific and societal resources, including natural history collections, sequence databases, and life science data portals. Digital species might be managed further by incorporating data records of non-sequenced individuals, notably observations, older material in collections, and data from publications.

The study proposes that the SSM is orchestrated by the international associations of taxonomists and economists.

"Non-trivial complications are foreseen when implementing the SSM in practice, but we argue that the most realistic and tangible way out of the looming biodiversity crisis is to put a price tag on species and thereby a cost to actions that compromise them," says Kõljalg.

"No human being will make direct monetary profit out of the SSM, and yet it's all Earth's inhabitants—including humans—that could benefit from its pointers."

Newly described species have higher extinction risk

More information: Urmas Kõljalg et al, A price tag on species, Research Ideas and Outcomes (2022). DOI: 10.3897/rio.8.e86741

Provided by Pensoft Publishers 

UN Sustainable Development Goals are influencing narrative, not policy

by Nature Publishing Group

UN Sustainable Development Goals. Credit: UN. https://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment

The United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have influenced governments' narratives around sustainability, but have not led to substantial changes in legislative action and resource allocation decisions, according to a paper published in Nature Sustainability. These findings suggest that the SDGs have had a limited political impact, and that policymakers will need to take much bolder steps to enable transformation.

Plenty of research has explored the breadth of the 17 SDGs, along with the accompanying 169 specific targets, ratified in 2015. However, less is known about whether the SDGs have led to any tangible change—at the global, national and local levels—in policy decisions addressing issues such as poverty eradication, environmental protection and social justice.

Frank Biermann and colleagues analyzed more than 3,000 studies investigating the political impacts of the SDGs between 2016 and 2021. In order to define a transformative impact on a political system, the authors looked for evidence of three types of political change in response to the SDGs. These were changes in political debates, adjustments in laws, regulations and policies, and the creation of new departments, committees or programs, or alternatively the realignment of existing institutions. Sustainability debates in countries have changed since 2015, with the SDGs facilitating some mutual learning among governments concerning sustainable development policies. However, overall, the authors point to only isolated evidence of more stringent policies, institutional realignment, funding reallocation, and the establishment of new laws and programs as a result of the SDGs.

The authors conclude that as the SDGs are not legally binding, policymakers seem to be using them for their own purposes, through either specific interpretation or selective implementation. They go on to state that the framework is proving unable to drive global sustainability policy and the fundamental changes that are needed for its ambitions to be fulfilled.

The Netherlands is not on course to achieve the SDGs

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More information: Frank Biermann et al, Scientific evidence on the political impact of the Sustainable Development Goals, Nature Sustainability (2022). DOI: 10.1038/s41893-022-00909-5

Journal information: Nature Sustainability 

Provided by Nature Publishing Group 

Science coverage of climate change can change minds—briefly

by The Ohio State University

Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain

Science reporting on climate change does lead Americans to adopt more accurate beliefs and support government action on the issue—but these gains are fragile, a new study suggests.

Researchers found that these accurate beliefs fade quickly and can erode when people are exposed to coverage skeptical of climate change.

"It is not the case that the American public does not respond to scientifically informed reporting when they are exposed to it," said Thomas Wood, associate professor of political science at The Ohio State University.

"But even factually accurate science reporting recedes from people's frame of reference very quickly."

The study will be published June 24, 2022 in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. Wood conducted the study with Brendan Nyhan of Dartmouth College and Ethan Porter of George Washington University.

Results showed that accurate science reporting didn't persuade only Democrats—Republicans and people who initially rejected human-caused climate change also had their opinions shifted by reading accurate articles.

The study involved 2,898 online participants who participated in four waves of the experiment during the fall of 2020.

In the first wave, they all read authentic articles in the popular media that provided information reflecting the scientific consensus on climate change.

In the second and third waves of the experiment, they read either another scientific article, an opinion article that was skeptical of climate science, an article that discussed the partisan debate over climate change, or an article on an unrelated subject.

In the fourth wave, the participants simply were asked their beliefs about the science of climate change and their policy attitudes.

To rate participants' scientific understanding, the researchers asked after each wave if they believed (correctly) that climate change is happening and has a human cause. To measure their attitudes, researchers asked participants if they favored government action on climate change and if they favored renewable energy.

Wood said it was significant that accurate reporting had positive effects on all groups, including Republicans and those who originally rejected climate change. But it was even more encouraging that it affected attitudes.

"Not only did science reporting change people's factual understanding, it also moved their political preferences," he said.

"It made them think that climate change was a pressing government concern that government should do more about."

But the positive effects on people's beliefs were short-lived, results showed. These effects largely disappeared in later waves of the study.

In addition, opinion stories that were skeptical of the scientific consensus on climate change reversed the accuracy gains generated by science coverage.

Articles featuring partisan conflict had no measurable effects on people's beliefs and attitudes.

Overall, the results suggest that the media play a key role in Americans' beliefs and attitudes about scientific issues like climate change.

"It was striking to us how amenable the subjects in our study were to what they read about climate change in our study. But what they learned faded very quickly," Wood said.

The results of the study conflict with the media imperative to only report on what is new.

"What we found suggests that people need to hear the same accurate messages about climate change again and again. If they only hear it once, it recedes very quickly," Wood said.

"The news media isn't designed to act that way."Explaining scientific consensus may help to convince naysayers

More information: Time and skeptical opinion content erode the effects of science coverage on climate beliefs and attitudes, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (2022). DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2122069119.

Journal information: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 

Provided by The Ohio State University 

Eating Red Meat Associated With an Increased Risk of Death

By LOMA LINDA UNIVERSITY 

ADVENTIST*** HEALTH SCIENCES CENTER 

JUNE 19, 2022


Researchers found an 8% increase in the mortality risk associated with eating moderate amounts of red meat

Researchers suggest limiting the consumption of ultra-processed meals and red meat to increase longevity

According to experts at Loma Linda University Health, high intake of ultra-processed foods and, separately, excessive consumption of red meat may be important mortality indicators. Their newly published research adds to the expanding body of knowledge regarding the effects of ultra-processed meals and red meat on human health and lifespan.

In comparison to previous research on the health effects of ultra-processed and animal-based diets, this study has one of the biggest cohorts, with over 77,000 individuals. It also took into account a wide range of diets, including vegetarian and non-vegetarian options. According to Gary Fraser, MBChB, Ph.D., a study author and professor at Loma Linda University School of Medicine and School of Public Health, the findings gave fresh insights regarding ultra-processed foods as a common denominator of mortality between vegetarians and non-vegetarians.

“Our study addresses the question of what can make a vegetarian diet healthy or unhealthy,” Fraser says. “It seems that the proportion of ultra-processed foods in someone’s diet is actually more important with respect to mortality than the proportion of animal-derived foods they eat, the exception being red meat.”

Fraser says the study exposes how it is possible to be a “bad vegetarian or a good non-vegetarian” because it isolates the health impacts of processed foods in the diet — whether it’s vegetarian or not. Results revealed that vegetarians who ate a lot of processed foods as part of their diets faced a similar proportionate increase in mortality outcomes as non-vegetarians who ate a lot of processed foods in their diets.

The study, “Ultra-processed food intake and animal-based food intake and mortality in the Adventist health study-2,” published in the American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, assesses the mortality risks of two dietary factors independent of each other:
the proportion of the diet composed of ultra-processed foods as opposed to less processed foods; examples of ultra-processed foods include soft drinks, certain meat analogs, and candy.
the proportion of the diet from animal-based foods (meats, eggs, and dairy) as opposed to plant-based foods.

Seven LLU researchers gathered data from an observational prospective cohort study in North America, recruited from Seventh-day Adventist churches, comprising of 77,437 female and male participants. Participants completed a frequency food questionnaire including over 200 food items to describe their diets. They also provided other health-related and demographic information about themselves, including sex, race, geographic region, education, marital status, rate of tobacco and alcohol use, exercise, sleep, BMI, and comorbid conditions with cardiovascular disease or diabetes.

Researchers then analyzed participants’ health and demographic information in conjunction with their mortality data, provided by the National Death Index, for a mean timeframe of about seven and a half years. Next, researchers used a statistical model to help them consider each variable independently of others and produce a cause-specific mortality analysis.

They adjusted their statistical model to focus on ultra-processed food intake irrespective of other factors like animal-food consumption or age. In doing so, Fraser and co-authors found that people who obtained half of their total calories from ultra-processed foods faced a 14% increase in mortality compared to people who received only 12.5% of their total calories from ultra-processed foods.

Study authors report that high consumption levels of ultra-processed foods were associated with mortality related to respiratory, neurologic, and renal conditions — particularly Alzheimer’s disease, Parkinson’s disease, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (even when restricted to people who never smoked). However, high ultra-processed food consumption was not associated with mortality from cardiovascular disease, cancer, or endocrine conditions.

Results did not reveal an association between mortality and dietary intake of total animal-based foods. Once researchers parsed animal-based foods into sub-categories, however, they found a statistically significant 8% increase in the mortality risk associated with moderate (approximately 1 ½ oz per day) consumption of red meat compared to no red meat.

Overall, Fraser says the study demonstrated how greater consumption of ultra-processed foods was associated with higher all-cause mortality, even in a health-conscious Adventist population with many vegetarians. Such findings of ultra-processed food consumption and mortality provide a “helpful confirmation of what people expected,” he says.

The study calls for further research into the specific health effects of ultra-processed food consumption in humans. While research endeavors continue to deepen understanding of how ultra-processed foods impact our health, Fraser advises avoiding consuming them at high levels.

“If you’re interested in living longer or to your maximal potential, you’d be wise to avoid a diet filled with ultra-processed foods and replace them with less processed or unprocessed foods,” Fraser says. “At the same time, avoid eating a lot of red meat. It’s as simple as that.”

Reference: “Ultra-processed food intake and animal-based food intake and mortality in the Adventist Health Study-2” by Michael J Orlich, Joan Sabaté, Andrew Mashchak, Ujué Fresán, Karen Jaceldo-Siegl, Fayth Miles and Gary E Fraser, 24 February 2022, American Journal of Clinical Nutrition.
DOI: 10.1093/ajcn/nqac043

*** SEVENTH DAY ADVENTISTS ARE CHRISTIAN VEGETARIANS

RENT = INFLATION

Low-income renters can't afford rent in nearly 45% of America's largest metro areas

by Margaret Crable, University of Southern California

Low-income residents may be forced to live in neighborhoods plagued by pollution and

 crime, and lacking quality schools. Credit: Unsplash

Metro areas in the United States have become increasingly unaffordable to residents, especially Black and Latino Americans, finds a new report from the USC Dornsife Equity Research Institute (ERI), published by the National Equity Atlas.

Between 2013 and 2019, the number of metro areas having no zip codes with housing that is affordable to working class renters increased from 14% to 42%. More than 80% of the country's most populous regions saw an average 12% drop in affordability. ERI co-produced the report with nonprofit PolicyLink.

Without access to options, low-income households are forced to live in neighborhoods plagued by pollution and high-crime, and with few amenities such as quality schools or parks. For low-income families squeezed out of resource-rich neighborhoods, their children face an uphill battle when breaking out of poverty.

It's also a concern for businesses. With less and less affordable housing in metro areas, companies struggle to find and retain workers. Already, employers are attempting to mitigate the problem by purchasing and building affordable housing for their workers, with mixed results.

Renters across income brackets and race/ethnicities face a shrinking number of affordable neighborhoods

• Since 2013, the number of neighborhoods with affordable housing for low-, median- and moderate-income families have declined across 100 of the largest metro areas in the U.S.
• For Black, Latino and white households, affordability decreased in more metro areas than it increased.
• The number of metro areas with zero affordable neighborhoods for low-income renters tripled.
• Just three metro areas saw an increase in affordability for low-income renters: Baton Rouge, Louisiana; Madison, Wisconsin; and Wichita, Kansas.

Differences in median-income worsened neighborhood choices for Black and Latino families

• From 2013 to 2019, median income for Black households increased less than for Latino and white households. Controlling for inflation, median household income for Black residents increased by $800 compared to $3,000 for whites and $3,700 for Latinos.
• Only 7% of neighborhoods are affordable to median-income Black households, and 16% to median-income Latino families. In contrast, median-income white households could afford nearly 70% of available rental areas.

The neighborhoods that remain affordable are low-opportunity, especially for Black households

• Of the neighborhoods that are still affordable for low-income households, over 75% rank "low" or "very-low" on the Child Opportunity Index (COI). COI measures and maps neighborhood resources and conditions, like safe streets and parks, considered important to healthy child development. For Black families, this rises to over 80% of affordable neighborhoods.
• Only 6% of neighborhoods affordable to median-income Black families are ranked as "high-opportunity" and none are ranked as "very-high opportunity."

"Housing unaffordability is both a product and driver of racial inequities, and it's only getting worse. Working class Black and Latinx households continue to experience de facto segregation as they are unjustly priced out from high-opportunity areas that would improve their lives and generations to come," says Thai V. Le, Turpanjian Postdoctoral Fellow in Civil Society and Social Change at the Equity Research Institute and a co-author of the report.

"However, as important as it is to bring affordable housing to opportunity-rich neighborhoods, we must also bring opportunities and resources to working-class neighborhoods where community ties are."

The report recommends a variety of potential solutions to improve conditions.

• Expand and make permanent many of the eviction protections that urban areas enacted during the pandemic.
• Preserve existing affordable housing units, and increase community ownership models like community land trusts which guarantee housing with lasting affordability.
• Implement inclusionary zoning, in which developers set aside a small amount of newly constructed units for low-income renters.
• Improve the quality of existing affordable neighborhoods by cleaning up polluted areas and building parks and infrastructure.

U.S. rent has increased 175% faster than household income over past 20 years

Provided by University of Southern California