Observational and modeling data help to better understand the Third Pole

by Li Yuan, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Credit: Springer

The Tibetan Plateau, known as the "Third Pole" of the world, is not only the highest plateau on the Earth, but it is also considered the "Asian Water Tower." Its watershed nourishes more than ten major rivers in Asia.


Like the North and South Poles, the Tibetan Plateau is also extremely vulnerable to climate change. Glaciers on it have been retreating extensively in recent decades. Atmospheric warming, circulation changes associated with increasing concentrations of greenhouse gases, aerosols in the atmosphere, and light-absorbing particles, such as black carbon and dust on snow are all contributing to glacial retreat.

Recently, researchers from China, the U.S. and the Netherlands have curated their "Third Pole" climate studies into a special issue of Advances in Atmospheric Sciences. The journal is hosted by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences.

"This special issue focuses on the analysis of observational and modeling data to better understand the roles that the Tibetan Plateau plays in Asia's climate and even the global climate," said Prof. Zhao Chun from the University of Science and Technology of China, and one of the guest editors of the special issue.

Regarding the Tibetan Plateau's future climatology as indicated in the preface of the special issue, so far, scientists have not reached a consensus on a robust method of obtaining reliable climate projections. A complete physical attribution of climate change over the Tibetan Plateau needs further analysis.

The studies published in the special issue also suggest that the regional feedbacks from topography, snow cover, and the chemical-radiative-dynamical coupling processes are critical processes in climate systems. Future research should aim to better resolve these parameters to improve simulations of regional climate and air quality over the Tibetan plateau. 

Discovery of a tripole winter precipitation change pattern around the Tibetan Plateau in the late 1990s

More information: Yun Qian et al, Understanding Third Pole Atmospheric Dynamics and Land Surface Processes and Their Associations with the Cryosphere, Air Quality, and Climate Change, Advances in Atmospheric Sciences (2022). DOI: 10.1007/s00376-022-2004-7

Journal information: Advances in Atmospheric Sciences

Provided by Chinese Academy of Sciences

 

New study debunks theory that England's decommissioned wells are leaking methane

by Heriot-Watt University

PhD student Paula Gonzalez testing soil for traces of gas leakage near a decommissioned

 well in England. Credit: Heriot-Watt University

There is no evidence to suggest that England's decommissioned oil and gas wells are leaking methane into the environment, according to a new study by Heriot-Watt University.

Dr. Aaron Cahill from Heriot-Watt's Lyell Center, a strategic partnership between Heriot-Watt and the British Geological Survey, says his findings, published in the International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, should be "reassuring" to the public and regulators.

There are more than 2,000 onshore oil and gas wells in England, about 1,700 of which have been decommissioned.

When decommissioned, the wells are plugged with cement, then cut and capped two meters below the ground and buried. The land is returned to use for grazing or farming. They are not typically checked afterwards for leakage.

A 2016 study by another university visited over 100 decommissioned wells in England. It suggested that 30 percent were leaking methane, a potent greenhouse gas, into their surrounding environment.

Cahill says his research brings these results into question. None of the wells he examined in more detail was leaking methane.

He also found the soil the wells were buried in would typically stop gas from escaping and potentially make it almost undetectable at the surface in any case.

Cahill said: "We revisited four of the wells that a previous study suggested were leaking, including those suggested as releasing the most methane.

"We drilled 1–2m holes to get closer to the wellhead, and used soil gas samples and a flux chamber to detect any methane and how much might be flowing into the soils and air. The previous study took measurements only at the surface.

"Our evaluation was much more intrusive and we got much closer to the wellhead, but found no evidence of methane leakage from the decommissioned wells.

"We also characterized the soil these wells are buried in. It's mostly clay, which is prevalent across England.

"Gas and liquid don't flow freely through clay-rich soils. So even if there were leaks, the clay forms a pretty effective barrier to stop methane escaping into the surrounding environment.

Cahill said just because there aren't leaks now doesn't mean there won't be in the future.

"Decommissioned wells will be below our landscape for centuries to come. They might not be leaking now, but they could in future. In the U.S. and Canada, some wells have been found to be leaking.

"We need a standardized method of checking these wells for methane leaks and a plan for stewardship of this legacy infrastructure from our net positive past.

"Our more detailed approach would be a good starting point."

"Methane is a powerful greenhouse gas and there are more than six million oil and gas wells worldwide. We need to understand what happens to them in the long term, including how many might leak, how much and why. At the minute we simply don't know and will need to figure this out if we are to reach net zero."

Inactive oil wells could be big source of methane emissions

More information: Paula Sofia Gonzalez Samano et al, Constraining well integrity and propensity for fugitive gas migration in surficial soils at onshore decommissioned oil and gas well sites in England, International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control (2022). DOI: 10.1016/j.ijggc.2022.103712

Provided by Heriot-Watt University 

Australia's African youth are using social media to find racial dignity

by Southern Cross University

Credit: Merakist on Unsplash

Social media offers Black African young people in Australia safe spaces to engage in positive expressions of their Afro-blackness, according to a new study led by Southern Cross University and published in the Australian Journal of Social Issues.

Dr. Kathomi Gatwiri of Southern Cross University and Ph.D. researcher Claire Moran of Monash University theorized how young Black Africans used social media to spotlight and challenge anti-Black violence or racism in ways that are safer than physical, offline settings in white contexts.

"Anti-Black racism is a unique form of racism particularly perpetrated towards Black people," said Dr. Gatwiri, a senior lecturer in Social Work and Community Welfare.

"Anti-Blackness can also be perpetrated by other people of color, including black people who seek to assimilate in white culture, so as to minimize their experiences of racialization.

"As a theoretical perspective, Anti-blackness recognizes that while different racial groups in Australia have been subjected to various racial indignities, there is something particular and specific about the visibility of Black bodies that triggers the imagination of white Australia to mean they are too un-assimilable, too different, too foreign, too dangerous, too visible, too everything."

Dr. Gatwiri said young Black Africans often report that because of constant and relentless antiblackness, they experience a fractured sense of racial dignity.

"This results in them feeling unworthy of being included in mainstream Australia and powerless against the powerful media, which constantly fuels the deficit narrative against them. Racial dignity is a crucial aspect in how we experience ourselves as racial beings.

From this study, the researchers found that despite the constant chipping of their racial dignity, the resilience of the young people was unyielding.

"I have written elsewhere that racial dignity should be conceptualized both in an individual and relational sense, where racial minorities are afforded unconditional worth of as human beings. To be racially dignified is to be seen through a humanized lens, and to be afforded basic respect in private and public relationships, especially within a complex society that largely misreads, mistreats and misuses the Black body," she added.

The African Australians used social media to find communities of support and healing, educate themselves, and counter the narratives of anti-blackness.

"Using different digital platform affordances, such as 'block,' 'delete,' 'mute' and 'private stories features' to effectively bypass racism online, many were able to engage in the kind of self-representation they chose including posting pictures of themselves or discussing their lived experiences, within a 'safe digital space,'" Dr. Gatwiri said.

"While many still feared the 'digital white gaze' where they were terrified of being trolled for posting about racial experiences, through these digital features that afforded them some sense of online boundaries, Black African youth were able to 'filter out' abuse and successfully engage in positive expressions of Afro-blackness in ways that are safer to them than in physical, offline settings."Denial of structural racism linked to anti-Black prejudice

More information: Kathomi Gatwiri et al, Reclaiming racial dignity: An ethnographic study of how African youth in Australia use social media to visibilise anti‐Black racism, Australian Journal of Social Issues (2022). DOI: 10.1002/ajs4.224

Provided by Southern Cross University

Tortoise and her egg found in new Pompeii excavations

By NICOLE WINFIELD

In this undated photo provided by Pompeii Archaeological Park on Friday, June 24, 2022, archaeologists work in the area of the Terme Stabiane inside the park near Naples, southern Italy, where the remains of a land tortoise dating back to some 2000 years ago were found.

 Credit: Pompeii Archaeological Park via AP

Archaeologists in Pompeii have discovered the remains of a pregnant tortoise that had sought refuge in the ruins of a home destroyed by an earthquake in 62 AD, only to be covered by volcanic ash and rock when Mount Vesuvius erupted 17 years later.


The 14-centimeter long (5.5-inch long) Hermann's tortoise and her egg were discovered during excavations of an area of the ancient city that, after the earthquake leveled Pompeii, was being rebuilt for the construction of public baths, officials said Friday.

Pompeii was then destroyed for good after the volcanic eruption in AD 79.

Archaeologists suspect the tortoise, a species that is common in southern Europe, had sought refuge in the rubble of a home that was too badly damaged from the quake to be rebuilt.

Pompeii's director general, Gabriel Zuchtriegel, said the fact that she still had her egg suggested she died before finding a safe, hospitable place to lay it.

"This lets us reflect on Pompeii in this phase after the earthquake but before the eruption, when many homes were being rebuilt, the whole city was a construction site, and evidently some spaces were so unused that wild animals could roam, enter and try to lay their eggs," he said.

It's not the first tortoise to be found in Pompeii, and Zuchtriegel said an important focus of current excavations and research concerns the organic and agricultural materials found outside Pompeii's urban center.

The remains of a land tortoise with an egg inside and dating back to some 2000 years ago are seen in the area of the Terme Stabiane inside the Pompeii Archaeological Park near Naples, southern Italy, where they were found, in this undated photo provided by the Pompeii Park on Friday, June 24, 2022. Credit: Pompeii Archaeological Park via AP

The remains of a land tortoise with an egg inside and dating back to some 2000 years ago are seen in the area of the Terme Stabiane inside the Pompeii Archaeological Park near Naples, southern Italy, where they were found, in this undated photo provided by the Pompeii Park on Friday, June 24, 2022. Credit: Pompeii Archaeological Park via AP
In this undated photo provided by Pompeii Archaeological Park on Friday, June 24, 2022, archaeologists work in the area of the Terme Stabiane inside the park near Naples, southern Italy, where the remains of a land tortoise dating back to some 2000 years ago were found. Credit: Pompeii Archaeological Park via AP

The discovery of the tortoise, he said, adds to "this mosaic of relations between culture and nature, community and environment that represents the history of ancient Pompeii."

The excavations in the Stabiane baths section of Pompeii are being carried out by the Free University of Berlin, the University of Napoli's L'Orientale and Oxford University, alongside the Pompeii archeological site.

Explore further Archaeologists find skeleton, evidence of Greek in Pompeii

© 2022 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without permission.

Environmental factors predict risk of death: study

by NYU Langone Health

Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain

Along with high blood pressure, diabetes, and smoking, environmental factors such as air pollution are highly predictive of people's chances of dying, especially from heart attack and stroke, a new study shows.

Led by researchers at NYU Grossman School of Medicine and the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai, the study showed that exposure to above average levels of outdoor air pollution increased risk of death by 20%, and risk of death from cardiovascular disease by 17%.

Using wood- or kerosene-burning stoves, not properly ventilated through a chimney, to cook food or heat the home also increasd overall risk of death (by 23% and 9%) and cardiovascular death risk (by 36% and 19%). Living far from specialty medical clinics and near busy roads also increased risk of death.

Publishing in the journal PLOS ONE online June 24, the findings come from personal and environmental health data collected from 50,045 mostly poor, rural villagers living in the northeast Golestan region of Iran. All study participants were over age 40 and agreed to have their health monitored during annual visits with researchers dating as far back as 2004.

Spatial models for six spatial environmental factors across Golestan Province, Iran.

 These models were used to assign environmental exposures to individuals based on their 

location of residence. Credit: Plos One / Mount Sinai Health System

Researchers say their latest investigation not only identifies environmental factors that pose the greatest risk to heart and overall health, but also adds much-needed scientific evidence from people in low- and middle-income countries. Traditional research on environmental risk factors, the researchers note, has favored urban populations in high-income countries with much greater access to modern health care services.

Compared with those who have easier access to specialized medical services, those living farther away from clinics with catheterization labs able to unblock clogged arteries, for example, were at increased risk of death by 1% for every 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) of distance. In Golestan, most people live more than 50 miles (80 kilometers) away from such modern facilities.

Study results also showed that the one-third of study participants who lived within 500 meters (1,640 feet) of a major roadway had a 13% increased risk of death.

"Our study highlights the role that key environmental factors of indoor/outdoor air pollution, access to modern health services, and proximity to noisy, polluted roadways play in all causes of death and deaths from cardiovascular disease in particular," says study senior author and cardiologist Rajesh Vedanthan, MD, MPH.

"Our findings help broaden the disease-risk profile beyond age and traditional personal risk factors," says Vedanthan, an associate professor in the Department of Population Health and the Department of Medicine at NYU Langone Health.

"These results illustrate a new opportunity for health policymakers to reduce the burden of disease in their communities by mitigating the impact of environmental risk factors like air pollution on cardiovascular health," says study lead author Michael Hadley, MD, a fellow in cardiology and incoming assistant professor of medicine at Mount Sinai.

By contrast, the study showed that other environmental factors included in the analysis—low neighborhood income levels, increased population density, and too much nighttime light exposure—were not independent predictors of risk of death, despite previous research in mostly urban settings suggesting otherwise.

For the investigation, researchers analyzed data gathered through December 2018. They then created a predictive model on overall death risk and death risk from cardiovascular disease.

The research team plans to continue its analysis and hopes to apply the predictive model to other countries with the aim of fine-tuning its predictive capacity. They say their new tool could serve as a guide for evaluating the effectiveness of environmental, lifestyle, and personal health changes in reducing mortality rates worldwide.

According to the World Health Organization, one-quarter of all deaths worldwide are now attributable to environmental factors, including poor air and water quality, lack of sanitation, and exposure to toxic chemicals. Household air pollution linked to higher risk of heart attacks, death

More information: Spatial environmental factors predict cardiovascular and all-cause mortality: Results of the SPACE Study, PLoS ONE (2022).

Journal information: PLoS ONE 

Provided by NYU Langone Health 

Long-awaited federal study finds threat to Boundary Waters from hardrock mining

by Jennifer Bjorhus

Credit: Pixabay/CC0 Public Domain

Hardrock mining on public land in northern Minnesota risks contaminating the Boundary Waters Canoe Area Wilderness, even with measures designed to head off those problems, a long-awaited federal study says.

The environment assessment released Thursday by the U.S. Forest Service buttresses the Biden Administration's quest for a 20-year moratorium on hardrock mining on more than 200,000 acres in Superior National Forest next to the Boundary Waters.

The Forest Service report was released following years of controversy and a concerted effort to keep its work secret. Launched at the end of the Obama Administration, the study was canceled in 2018 by the Trump Administration which declared it an unnecessary "roadblock" to minerals exploration in the Rainy River Watershed, which drains into the Boundary Waters. President Joe Biden restarted the study.

During the Trump Administration, members of Congress and the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources tried unsuccessfully to get access to the research. Some of the repeated requests, including from the Star Tribune, were met with blacked out pages.

Becky Rom, National Chair of the Campaign to Save the Boundary Waters, said she is still plowing through the report—and at least 18 scientific studies attached to it. She said she feels "satisfaction" that the Forest Service was able to complete its work.

"The American people can read it, and policy decisions can be based on this nonbiased, non partisan report," Rom said.

Rom wants Congress to impose a permanent ban on hardrock mining on the federal land in the Rainy River Watershed, in Superior National Forest next to the Boundary Waters. Legislation that would do that, sponsored by U.S. Rep. Betty McCollum, D-Minn, had a hearing last month in the House Natural Resources Subcommittee on Energy and Mineral Resources.

McCollum issued a statement Thursday saying the Boundary Waters demands permanent protection.

"The proposed 20-year withdrawal is absolutely justified—and to avoid the type of political intervention we previously saw from the Trump administration, my legislation must pass to permanently protect this federal Wilderness and the interests of the American people in perpetuity," it said.

There is no Senate companion bill. Minnesota Senators Amy Klobuchar and Tina Smith have publicly said they were waiting for the study to be released before committing to further action.

The report lays out the potential consequences of allowing hardrock mining, and barring it, on nearly 20 resources, such as water, tribal needs, recreation, wildlife and the local economy.

Chris Knopf, executive director of Friends of the Boundary Waters, applauded the report's environmental justice findings.

Native American people and low-income communities in Cook and St. Louis Counties in northeast Minnesota would be disproportionately affected by potential acid mine drainage pollution "due to cultural practices associated with the harvesting and consumption of wild rice, fish and fowl from the region," the report said.

In addition to seeking the moratorium, the Biden Administration in January canceled the two federal minerals leases for the proposed Twin Metals underground copper-nickel mine next to the Boundary Waters.

Twin Metals spokeswoman Kathy Graul issued a statement saying the Forest Service report is not based on science but aimed at stopping mining in northeast Minnesota. That will hurt the country's ability to supply its own clean energy minerals, she said, which contradicts the Biden administration's goals.

The company remains committed to the Twin Metals mine plan, she said.

"We have longstanding valid existing mineral rights," Graul said. "We remain confident that we will move this project forward."

After a 30-day public comment period, the report will be finalized and sent to Department of Interior's Bureau of Land Management for review and recommendation. Interior Secretary Deb Haaland is expected to make a decision on the 20-year hardrock mining moratorium by the end of the year.US moves to end ban on new uranium mining near Grand Canyon

2022 StarTribune.
Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

World's dirtiest oil and gas fields are in Russia, Turkmenistan and Texas

by Naureen Malik

Credit: Unsplash/CC0 Public Domain

Oil and natural gas fields in Russia, Turkmenistan and Texas are the most climate-damaging on Earth, according to a first-of-its kind analysis that looks at greenhouse-gas emissions across entire supply chains and finds they vary widely. The dirtiest fields emit more than 10 times as much carbon dioxide equivalent as the least emissions-intensive sites, it finds.

Released Thursday by the nonprofit Rocky Mountain Institute, the Oil Climate Index plus Gas (OCI+) web tool ranks 135 global oil- and gas-producing resources—which together account for half of the world's supplies of those commodities—based on a full life-cycle analysis of their 2020 emissions. Russia's Astrakhanskoye natural gas field has the biggest footprint across its supply chain because of prolific leaks on pipelines and other infrastructure "downstream," according to the analysis. Turkmenistan's South Caspian basin and the Permian Basin in West Texas rank second and third; the majority of their emissions arise "upstream," during production.

Created by researchers at RMI, Stanford University, the University of Calgary and Koomey Analytics, the OCI+ tool and an accompanying report conclude that significant fossil-fuel emissions occur not just at the point of combustion, but directly at the wellhead and during processing, refining, and transportation. RMI estimates that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's greenhouse gas reporting program undercounts oil and gas industry emissions by a factor of two. The project received funding from the philanthropic organization of Michael Bloomberg, the founder and majority owner of Bloomberg LP, which owns Bloomberg News.

Methane, a greenhouse gas that is the primary component of natural gas and a powerful global-warming agent, accounts for more than half of operational emissions at sites worldwide. Curbing the flaring and venting of the gas and ensuring that oil-field equipment is working properly can help significantly reduce upstream emissions, the report says, calling methane reductions "the highest priority for the oil and gas sector."

The initiative draws on years of research by academics and nonprofit institutions, public data and satellite images. It boils down to the questions, "Who has the worst barrel, and who are the suckers buying the bad stuff?" said Deborah Gordon, senior principal of climate intelligence at RMI, the research lead. That's where the spotlight needs to be to combat climate change, she said.

Oil and gas prices have surged after demand rebounded from the COVID-19 pandemic and due to dislocations caused by Russia's war on Ukraine. Despite growth in renewable power generation, global reliance on fossil fuels is poised to grow before tapering amid a transition to alternatives like wind and solar. Yet the urgency to cut emissions has grown. A United Nations-backed panel of scientists recently warned that emissions must be significantly reduced by 2030 to help avoid the catastrophic impacts that would result from warming exceeding the Paris Agreement targets of 1.5° and 2° Celsius.

The report recommends buying fuel locally as much as possible to save on transport-related emissions, but according to the OCI+ analysis, Europe might actually avoid some emissions by buying gas from the U.S. that is super-chilled into liquid and shipped across the ocean rather than from Russia. Sourcing gas from Russia is "horrid" because of leaks, Gordon said: On the OCI+ digital emissions map, Russia's pipeline system jumps out in bright yellow and orange due to concentrated methane emissions. (New York City and Boston, which have aging pipe infrastructure, show up as smaller, less intense hot spots, while Russia's liquefied natural gas export terminal in Siberia is a blip.)

For decades, policies have targeted reducing emissions from cars and power plants, which puts the responsibility on the consumer with little transparency on emissions from producers themselves, Gordon said. "Conventional wisdom is that the consumer is responsible for 86% of the emissions from the barrel." But the research shows that's not the case for the most polluting oil and gas fields, she said.

The researchers also estimated a price for carbon, and OCI+ shows how accounting for life-cycle emissions would tack on more than $50 per barrel for the highest-emitting sites. If a fee reflecting the social cost to carbon were imposed today, the production-weighted average cost for the 135 fields would be $7 per barrel of oil equivalent, less than $1 for refiners and $4 for shippers, according to the analysis. The values are based on a cost of $56 per metric ton that was modeled by the U.S. government. (Carbon fees can be adjusted in OCI+ to account for different scenarios.)

Aging oil and gas fields become more GHG-intensive as more energy and water are needed to extract the fuel from underground. The average emissions of a typical large oil field will double over 25 years, according to past research. Two prime candidates for decommissioning are the Minas field in Indonesia and Wilmington in California, since they already require large injections, Gordon said.

The web tool also breaks out the share of sites' emissions from flaring, or burning off excess natural gas. This practice is notoriously common in the Permian Basin, where oil is the most profitable fuel and natural gas is a nuisance byproduct.

"The Permian looks terrible," Gordon said, but "if Texas cleans up its act and really focuses on not leaking methane and not flaring its gas, it will be there right at the top" of the lowest-emitting areas."Energy sector methane emissions underreported: report

2022 Bloomberg L.P.
Distributed by Tribune Content Agency, LLC.

Drought hits Italy's hydroelectric plants

The Po River is suffering its worst drought for 70 years. .

Hydroelectric power in Italy has plunged this year thanks to a drought that has also sparked water restrictions and fears for agriculture, industry sources said Friday.

Hydropower facilities, mostly located in the mountains in the country's north, provide almost one fifth of Italy's energy demands.

But the lack of rain is causing problems, at a time when Rome is desperately trying to wean itself off its dependence on Russian gas due to the war in Ukraine.

"From January to May 2022, hydro production fell by about 40 percent compared to the corresponding period in 2021," a spokesman for Utilitalia, a federation of water companies, told AFP.

"Hydro production has been steadily decreasing since July 2021," he said, blaming "the severe shortage of water even at high levels".

An industry source told AFP that while the situation was constantly changing, estimates for the first six months of 2022 suggest nationwide hydroelectric generation will be almost half the equivalent period of 2021.

One small plant near Piacenza, southeast of Milan, was shut indefinitely on June 21 due to low levels on the River Po that feeds it, the Enel energy company said.

"Considering the current drought situation, other hydro plants are not operating at full capacity," a spokesman added, without giving further details.

The Po River is Italy's largest reservoir of fresh water. Much of it used by farmers, but is suffering its worst drought for 70 years.

Italy's largest agricultural association, Coldiretti, said the drought is putting over 30 percent of national agricultural production and half of livestock farming in the Po Valley at risk.

On Friday, the northern region of Lombardy called a state of emergency due to the drought, that recommends, among other measures, less water use by consumers and directs mayors to curtail non-essential water use, such as street washing and watering parks and sportsgrounds.

Further to the west in Piedmont, water is being rationed in more than 200 municipalities, according to the ANSA news agency.

The Maggiore and Garda lakes are both far lower than usual for this time of year, while further south, the level of the River Tiber that runs through Rome has also dropped.

Italy's Po Valley rations water amid record drought

© 2022 AFP

Murdering the dead: Amadeo Bordiga on capitalism and other                           disasters

.

Jul 6, 2009 — Antagonism's introduction to a collection of articles by Amadeo Bordiga, looking at how capitalism both exacerbates, and creates, ...

Climate change affects the likelihood of armed conflict

by Universitat Politècnica de València

Climate change affects the likelihood of armed conflict. Credit: UPV

Climate change influences the likelihood and duration of armed conflicts in Africa. This is the finding of a study carried out by a team from the INGENIO Institute, a joint center of the Universitat Politècnica de València (UPV) and the Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas (CSIC), together with the University of Rome III and the University of Urbino Carlo Bo, published in the latest issue of the journal Economía Política.

The team of researchers based their study on data from the African continent from 1990 to 2016. Using a negative binomial regression mathematical model, they assessed whether certain climatic phenomena, in combination with the socio-economic characteristics of the areas studied, affected the likelihood of a conflict breaking out and, if it did, its duration.

Among its findings, the study states that a prolonged increase in temperature and precipitation increases the probability of conflict beyond the affected area by four to five times, specifically in populations up to a radius of about 550 km.

The study also concludes that, in Africa, food shortages due to drought increase the possibility of conflict, especially if water shortages persist for at least three years. Conversely, excess rainfall triggers conflict, but in a very short period of time.

Implications for adaptive policies

"The results we have obtained have far-reaching implications for territorial policies on the African continent. For example, changes in climatic conditions influence the likelihood of conflict over large areas, which means that the design of climate adaptation policies must consider the particularities of each territory," says Davide Consoli, a researcher at the INGENIO Institute and one of the authors of the study.

The INGENIO, University of Rome and University of Urbino team also points out that the persistence of violence requires the implementation of climate change adaptation strategies designed in combination with peacekeeping measures, especially in those areas most prone to armed conflict.

"These measures are essential in the design and implementation of adaptive strategies for climate resilience. In fact, poorly designed adaptation interventions can exacerbate existing inequalities and increase the risk of conflict," concludes Consoli.Physical intimate partner violence in Colombia costs $90 million annually 

---

More information: Federica Cappelli et al, Climate change and armed conflicts in Africa: temporal persistence, non-linear climate impact and geographical spillovers, Economia Politica (2022). DOI: 10.1007/s40888-022-00271-x

Provided by Universitat Politècnica de València

Theories on socio-political evolution put to the test

by Complexity Science Hub Vienna

Apparent stasis interspersed by periods of rapid change, associated with major

 technological “revolutions”, triggered by novel military technologies. The longest period of 

no systematic change was during the nearly two millennia between the Iron/Cavalry 

Revolution and the Gunpowder Revolution. Although empires rose and fell during this

 period, the maximum areas of empires fluctuated around the 3 million square kilometer

 level. [Brown curve: average territory of the three largest polities. Tan shading: mean ± SD

 (note the logarithmic scale of the Y-axis)]. 

Credit: Seshat: Global History Database

During the past 10,000 years—the Holocene—human societies became larger and ever more complex. An international team of scientists led by Peter Turchin from the Complexity Science Hub Vienna (CSH) set out to test various theories on what drove this process. According to its analyses of data from Seshat: Global History Databank, the best explanation for the evolution of socio-cultural complexity is a combination of increasing agricultural productivity and the invention, or adoption, of military technologies (most notably, the invention of iron weapons and cavalry in the first millennium BCE). The study just appeared in the journal Science Advances.

Many theories need to be tested

"Countless explanations have been offered over the years to explain the incredible 'Holocene transformation,'" Peter Turchin points out. Some theorists, like Jared Diamond, say that the transition to agriculture was both the necessary and sufficient condition for the rise of complex societies. Other theories focus on conflict theories, class struggle, the threat from external warfare or functionalist explanations, e.g., that complex social organization evolved to solve certain problems faced by societies.

"All these theories could cite historical examples seemingly supporting their putative mechanisms; but none have ever proven decisively more convincing than the others," says Turchin, who leads a team investigating Social Complexity and Collapse at the CSH. Along with fellow members of the Seshat: Global History Databank project, he applied the tried-and-true scientific method: determine what each body of theory proposes as the key factors driving the rise of complexity and see which one best explains the available empirical evidence. The results reveal that many long-standing and influential theories receive little support from data.

Plow and sword drive human history

The best explanation for the observed patterns offers the framework of cultural evolution. "Essentially, the conflict between groups over territory and resources put a tremendous selective pressure on societies," Turchin explains. It favored societies that were ever larger, more populous, could store more information and communicate effectively at greater distances and were capable of mobilizing larger numbers of people for common projects like defense and maintaining public infrastructure. "While previous theories contained some of these elements, for the first time a single, coherent framework has been provided and demonstrated with the historical record," says Turchin.

The scholars also identified several major "transformations" during the Holocene: Following the invention of key technologies like bronze and later iron smelting or cavalry warfare and associated tactics, the scale of the largest societies rose dramatically before leveling off to a relatively stable size. New innovations and cultural adaptations continued to build until another breakthrough was achieved, propelling societies to new heights before stabilizing again, while the whole process began anew.

Big Data reveal decisive patterns

"This paper is the culmination of more than a decade of intensive collaboration," says Harvey Whitehouse, corresponding author on the paper and one of the founding directors of Seshat. "Our study utilized more than a hundred variables—meticulously coded—relating to 373 societies that flourished between 9600 BCE and 1900 CE. With the help of such 'big' data we are able to place theories of world history head-to-head and see which ones win."

The scientists view this study as a breakthrough in the understanding of how human societies have evolved since the very first farmers settled down thousands of years ago. In the future, the team will adopt similar methods to test the diverse group of ideas that have been proposed in other areas of research, such as the causes of societal collapse or the role of religious ideology in cultural evolution.

The ultimate goal, as Turchin puts it, is to "put those influential ideas that do not bear out against the empirical record to bed, once and for all."What drove the invention of military technologies?

More information: Peter Turchin et al, Disentangling the Evolutionary Drivers of Social Complexity: A Comprehensive Test of Hypotheses, Science Advances (2022). DOI: 10.1126/sciadv.abn3517. www.science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.abn3517

Journal information: Science Advances 

Provided by Complexity Science Hub Vienna