PRECIENT PREDICTIONS

Russia

Chapter 4

“The Orange Revolution in Ukraine from December 2004-January 2005, was the moment when the post-Cold War world genuinely ended for Russia. The Russians saw the events in Ukraine as an attempt by the United States to draw Ukraine into NATO and thereby set the stage for Russian disintegration.”
…
“After what Russia regarded as an American attempt to further damage it, Moscow reverted to a strategy of reasserting its sphere of influence in the areas of the former Soviet Union. The great retreat of Russian power ended in Ukraine. Russian influence is now increasing in three directions: toward Central Asia, toward the Caucasus, and, inevitably, toward the West, the Baltics and Eastern Europe. For the next generation until roughly 2020, Russia’s primary concern will be reconstructing the Russian state and reasserting Russian power in the region.

The former Soviet satellites – particularly Poland, Hungary and Romania – understand that the return of Russian forces to their frontiers would represent a threat to their security. And since these countries are now part of NATO, their interests necessarily affect the interests of Europe and the United States. The open question is where the line will be drawn in the west. This has been a historical question, and it was a key challenge in Europe over the past hundred years.

Russia will not become a global power in the next decade, but it has no choice but to become a major regional power. And that means it will clash with Europe. The Russian-European frontier remains a fault line.”

Chapter 8

“…The Russians must dominate Belarus and Ukraine for their basic national security. The Baltics are secondary but still important. Eastern Europe is not critical, so long as the Russians are anchored in the Carpathian Mountains in the south and have strong forces on the northern European plain. But of course, all of this can get complicated.

Ukraine and Belarus are everything to the Russians. If they were to fall into an enemy’s hands –for example, join NATO- Russia would be in mortal danger. Moscow is only a bit over two hundred miles from the Russian border with Belarus, Ukraine less that two hundred miles from Volgograd, formerly Stalingrad. Russia defended against Napoleon and Hitler with depth. Without Belarus and Ukraine, there is no depth, no land to trade for an enemy’s blood. It is, of course, absurd to imagine NATO posing a threat to Russia. But the Russians think in terms of twenty-year cycles, and they know how quickly the absurd becomes possible.”

The Next 100 Years (published 2009)

Welcome - Geopolitical Futures

“In this book, I am trying to transmit a sense of the future. I will, of course, get many details wrong. But the goal is to identify the major tendencies—geopolitical, technological, demographic, cultural, military—in their broadest sense, and to define the major events that might take place. I will be satisfied if I explain something about how the world works today, and how that, in turn, defines how it will work in the future." (from Author’s Note)

Overture: An introduction to the American Age
“At a certain level, when it comes to the future, the only thing one can be sure of is that common sense will be wrong. There is no magic twenty-year cycle; there is not simplistic force governing this pattern. It is simply that the things that appear to be so permanent and dominant at any given moment in history can change with stunning rapidity. Eras come and go. In international relations, the way the world looks right now is not at all how it will look in twenty years….or even less. The fall of the Soviet Union was hard to imagine, and that is exactly the point. Conventional political analysis suffers from a profound failure of imagination. It imagines passing clouds to be permanent and is blind to powerful, long-term, shifts taking place in full view of the world.”

US IMPERIALISM ON THE MOON

China lambasts NASA claim it may take over the moon

NASA chief has said that the world should be worried China may claim the moon as its own and tell others to ‘stay out’.

The war of words comes as NASA has also launched a moon exploration programme called Artemis WHICH IS A POLICY THAT SAYS THE MOON IS AMERICA'S SIGN THIS TREATY OR STAY OUT

[File: Sorin Furcoi/Al Jazeera]

Published On 5 Jul 2022

China has criticised warnings from the chief of NASA that claimed Beijing may take over the moon as part of a military space programme.

Zhao Lijian, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, told reporters on Monday that China firmly opposed NASA Administrator Bill Nelson’s “irresponsible remarks”.

Nelson, who heads the United States’ space agency, had told the German newspaper, Bild, in an interview published on Saturday that he was worried about China’s space ambitions.

“We must be very concerned that China is landing on the moon and saying: ‘It’s ours now and you stay out’,” he said, referring to Beijing’s moon exploration plans.

China, which has stepped up the pace of its space programme in the past decade, has made exploration of the moon a focus.

It made its first lunar uncrewed landing in 2013 and is planning uncrewed missions to the moon’s south pole some time this decade.

It also plans to launch rockets powerful enough to send astronauts to the moon towards the end of this decade and has also set its sights on a Mars sample-return mission around 2030.

It is also working on a three-module space station called Tiangong that will rival the International Space Station (ISS), from which it is barred as US law bans NASA from sharing data with China.

NO FACTS JUST ALLEGATIONS
Nelson said China’s space programme was a military one and claimed that it had stolen ideas and technology from others.

NASA Administrator Bill Nelson [File: Joe Skipper/Reuters]

When Bild asked what military purposes China may pursue in space, he replied: “Well, what do you think is happening on the Chinese space station? They are learning how to destroy other people’s satellites.
(CONFUSING CHINA WITH INDIA AND RUSSIA)

“There is a new space race,” he added. “This time, with China.”

Zhao, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman, said Nelson’s remarks were not the first time that NASA chiefs have “ignored the facts and spoken irresponsibly about China”.

“The US side has constantly constructed a smear campaign against China’s normal and reasonable outer space endeavours, and China firmly opposes such irresponsible remarks,” he said.

China has always promoted the building of a shared future for humanity in outer space and opposed its weaponisation and any arms race in space, he added.

The war of words comes as NASA has also launched a moon exploration programme called Artemis.

Under Artemis, NASA plans to send a crewed mission to orbit the moon in 2024 and to make a crewed landing near the lunar south pole by 2025.

That crew will include the first woman and the first person of colour on the moon. “We will use what we learn on and around the Moon to take the next giant leap: sending the first astronauts to Mars,” NASA said on its website.

SOURCE: AL JAZEERA AND NEWS AGENCIES

SEE LA REVUE GAUCHE - Left Comment: Search results for MOON IS HARSH MISTRESS

ADF report into alleged misconduct in East Timor warned of culture issues in special forces, years before claims of Afghanistan war crimes

ABC Investigations /
Exclusive by Mark Willacy, Stephanie March and Josh Robertson
July 6,2022

The 2020 Brereton report said a code of silence in the special forces had contributed to unlawful killings in Afghanistan.

(Supplied: Defence Force, file photo)

An internal Australian Defence Force report explicitly warned of a "code of silence" and a culture of cover-up in the special forces years before allegations of war crimes in Afghanistan emerged.

Key points:

A report written following investigations of alleged misconduct by Australian personnel in East Timor said the special forces' code of silence should be broken down

It expressed concern that special forces may be unlikely to truthfully report alleged crimes

The 2020 Brereton report into alleged war crimes in Afghanistan said its inquiry was "often frustrated by outright deceit"

Almost two decades later, an inquiry would blame this same culture of obfuscation and deceit for fostering what investigators say was the unlawful killing of 39 civilians and prisoners by the SAS in Afghanistan.

The initial warning about special forces "not telling the truth" is contained in 251 pages of reports released to ABC Investigations under Freedom of Information (FOI) by the Department of Defence.

The documents relate to allegations of ADF misconduct in East Timor in 1999.

The allegations that were investigated include an incident involving the SAS in which two militiamen were killed in controversial circumstances, and claims of torture at a secret interrogation centre set up by the SAS and run by intelligence officers.

In April, Four Corners revealed that charges of torture were recommended against three Australian intelligence officers running the interrogation centre.

The secret interrogation centre was located at Dili's heliport.

(Four Corners: Kyle Taylor)

Despite briefs of evidence being drawn up, none of these officers was ever charged.

"It was never dealt with properly," said Karl Fehlauer, who was a member of the military police special inquiry team that investigated the East Timor allegations.

"It gave a green light for people to behave how they wanted to with impunity."

The brutality inside Australia's secret interrogation centre in East Timor
During the widely celebrated mission in East Timor, Australian soldiers detained and abused 14 men and boys in a secret interrogation facility. Years later, the detainees are still haunted.

One FOI document, titled Lessons Learned, was written in the immediate aftermath of the East Timor misconduct investigations, which wrapped up in 2003.

It warned that "the first issue of importance to come out of this matter is the code of silence which permeates elite units in the ADF" — recommending this culture be dismantled.

The redacted report of Major General Paul Brereton's inquiry into allegations of war crimes in Afghanistan, which was publicly released in 2020, made 30 references to a culture or code of silence within the special forces.

The inquiry found credible information of "23 incidents in which one or more non-combatants or persons hors-de-combat [out of the fight] were unlawfully killed by or at the direction of members of the Special Operations Task Group in circumstances which, if accepted by a jury, would be the war crime of murder".

Read the redacted IGADF report here.

The inquiry described the special forces as "a secretive and clandestine organisation in which there is a powerful code of silence".

The Lessons Learned report about East Timor written years earlier warned that measures should be adopted to "break down" the special forces' code of silence.

"The concerning feature is that if more serious crimes are committed in the future then members of the ADF may be unlikely to report such matters," the report stated.

"It is submitted there is a culture in ADF Special Forces of not telling the truth in such matters."

Mr Fehlauer said he believed SAS witnesses would have been coached before being interviewed about allegations of misconduct in East Timor.

"I honestly believe that prior to coming over for the interviews with us, [the SAS witnesses] would have all been taken into rooms and been fully briefed either by their own people or by legal officers working for the SAS and told what to say and how to say it and how to behave in an interview," he said.

Former miliary police investigator Karl Fehlauer says no Australian soldiers were held accountable for alleged misconduct in East Timor, contributing to a culture of impunity.(ABC Four Corners: Dave Maguire)

The 2020 Brereton report noted that its inquiry into Afghanistan war crimes was "often frustrated by outright deceit" and by "misguided loyalty [to the special forces] that placed relationships and reputation above truth and morality".

"It's finally come back to bite us on the arse," Mr Fehlauer said.

"I mean, it only took 20 years, but it finally came back because you've got to remember, a lot of those senior people involved in Afghanistan were all young troopers in East Timor."

Among the incidents and allegations contained within the Lessons Learned report was the shooting of two unarmed civilians on a motorcycle by Australian SAS soldiers in East Timor on October 19, 1999.

The two riders fled leaving a trail of blood, with one reportedly later dying of his wounds.

A search of the vicinity found no weapon, only a bag of rice.

'He's lost it': What Kiwi soldiers saw an Australian SAS operator do in East Timor

Secret documents reveal eyewitness accounts from New Zealand soldiers who said an Australian SAS operator brutalised corpses in East Timor in 1999.

A New Zealand SAS soldier at the scene described an Australian SAS trooper "panicking" after the shooting and having to be told to stay calm.

The Lessons Learned report says the shooting was "deliberately omitted from the [SAS] patrol report".

A witness statement obtained by ABC Investigations reveals that a New Zealand SAS member who was at the scene of the shooting — codenamed Soldier E – later read the Australian patrol report and described it as "pure rubbish".

"I am of the opinion that the Australians structured the report in such a way to justify their actions," he said.

No system is 100 per cent secure, but ProtonMail and Signal can be used to protect your identity by using end-to-end encryption. Please read the terms and conditions to work out if they are the best methods of communication for you.

The Lessons Learned document says the then-Commander of Special Operations was "of the view that charges should not be laid" over the false report, and that counselling was sufficient.

The Brereton inquiry later found that special forces operational reporting in Afghanistan "was routinely embellished, and sometimes outright fabricated".

In its reasons for releasing the Lessons Learned document to ABC Investigations, Defence "noted the significant importance of this document within the historical context of ADF operations and that of the Commonwealth of Australia".

"I have also reflected on the ongoing and significant public interest within the current allegations of war crimes stemming from within the Afghanistan campaign and how this document would significantly increase public debate," the Defence FOI decision-maker said.

VIDEO Ghosts of Timor 

ANALYSIS
Interest rates are rising: Is the RBA at fault for allowing Australians to take on too much debt?

Many Australians borrowed heavily on the expectation that interest rates would not rise until 2024.

By business reporter Nassim Khadem
July 6,2022

(Reuters: David Gray)

Can we blame Australians for being a little confused about the Reserve Bank's messaging on interest rates?

Towards the end of 2020 and for nearly all of last year, Reserve Bank Governor Philip Lowe said interest rates would not likely rise until 2024.

People like Sarah Ibrahim and her partner made life decisions based on that.

During the pandemic, as average house prices in Sydney and Melbourne crept over $1 million, the couple took out a $1.5 million loan with a 10 per cent deposit on the expectation that interest rates would not rise for about four years.

In November and December 2020, Dr Lowe said in the bank's monetary policy decision statement that the "Board is not expecting to increase the cash rate for at least three years".

Philip Lowe had said in statements in 2021 that interest rates would not rise until 2024.

(AAP: Dan Himbrechts)

Every single statement between February 2021 to October 2021 from Dr Lowe explaining the RBA's decision on leaving the cash rate at historic low levels said almost exactly the same thing. It read:

"The Board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range. For this to occur, wages growth will have to be materially higher than it is currently. This will require significant gains in employment and a return to a tight labour market. The Board does not expect these conditions to be met until 2024 at the earliest."

It was not until November when the RBA indicated rates may rise sooner than the board been expecting, and in December the word "2024" disappeared from Dr Lowe's statement. It now read:

"The Board will not increase the cash rate until actual inflation is sustainably within the 2 to 3 per cent target range. This will require the labour market to be tight enough to generate wages growth that is materially higher than it is currently. This is likely to take some time and the Board is prepared to be patient."

As Ms Ibrahim told ABC News, in late 2020 she "definitely took the message [from the RBA] that you can start making plans, knowing that interest rates are going to remain stable and low".

Like thousands of others, Ms Ibrahim and her partner, who have two young kids and already were struggling with the cost of living, went out on a limb. But only because they believed they were encouraged to do so.

They had factored in interest rates rising. Just not earlier than 2024.

Interest rates rising 1.5 years from the time they took out a loan is a very different equation to rates rising four years down the track.

Sarah Ibrahim made life decisions based on the RBA saying interest rates would not rise until 2024.(John Gunn, ABC News.)

When fixed rates end, many more will struggle with mortgages

Ms Ibrahim has calculated that if the cash rate lifts to 2.5 per cent and possibly more (variable rates of about 5 per cent or more) that means a rise of about $20,000 a year on their mortgage repayments.

The couple are not alone.

Affordable housing means falling prices

The desire to make housing more affordable also needs to address the worrying flip side: falling house prices for many Australians.

They are among almost 40 per cent of Australians with mortgages who have locked in ultra-low fixed rates in 2020 and 2021 and will roll off them as soon as next year.

When they do, the sudden and massive rise in their repayments may be too hard to bear.

The Reserve Bank conceded that is possible for some, in its recent financial stability review.

It said while most Australian households have built up enough savings to handle interest rate rises there is still a portion of borrowers that will struggle.

In its words: "the share of borrowers facing a debt servicing ratio greater than 30 per cent — a commonly used threshold for 'high' repayment burdens — would increase from around 10 per cent to just under 20 per cent".

This means hundreds of thousands of Australians with big mortgages could suffer.

And while borrowers with fixed-rate loans are "likely to be able to handle the increases in their repayments when their fixed-rate terms expire", the RBA said these "calculations assume household income after other expenses is unchanged".

"If rising inflation was to erode real household incomes, some borrowers may have to draw down their accumulated excess payment buffers much more quickly and/or cut back on other spending," it said.

AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver said while many households have built up savings buffers, they tended to be older and higher-income earners.

AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver says many households will struggle under higher interest rates. (John Gunn.)

He said there was still a big portion of the household sector that was "heavily vulnerable" to interest rate rises.

These tended to be younger families, people in their late 20s to early 40s who got into the market over the past few years – "who haven't got their debt yet under control", he said.

"They're the people who adjust their spending in response to shocks," Dr Oliver said.

"Those are the people who were more likely to run into trouble servicing their mortgage or just have to cut back spending through this period, and then that has a flow-on effect to the broader economy."

RBA says it made no promise, but economists say the public heard one

The Reserve Bank has previously defended its messaging, saying it did not promise interest rates would not rise until 2024.

In a speech in November Dr Lowe said the bank's guidance was based on the state of the economy, not the calendar.

Rate rise default risk
As interest rates rise, almost 300,000 people who took large and risky home loans during the pandemic could fall into severe financial hardship or even default.

"We have, though, supplemented this state-based guidance with a reference to our forecasts and the calendar," he noted.

"We have done this to provide the community with our expected time frame and the factors that will influence that time frame.

"This in no way has constituted a promise that the cash rate would remain unchanged to any particular date.

"Rather, at the time of each policy statement, we provided our best expectation of the timing of when the cash rate might change, recognising that expected timing can change."

But leading economists say the Reserve Bank needed to improve its communication with ordinary Australians.

"2024 was a long time away to keep interest rates at [near] zero," Dr Oliver said.

"We didn't really believe that (would play out in reality). And I think a few other economists out there didn't believe them, either.

"But the problem is that they were taken seriously by many in the community."

He said while the Reserve Bank Governor might defend it was not a calendar-based forecast, what actually mattered was the message people heard.

"That's what was relayed in the media, and I guess there would have been a lot of people who took that seriously," Dr Oliver said.

"And I think it did damage the RBA's reputation a little bit, or a lot."
Can the RBA improve its communication?

The RBA put its money where its mouth is when it set a "yield target", according to Steven Hamilton, Assistant Professor of Economics at The George Washington University and visiting fellow at the Crawford School at the ANU.

Steven Hamilton says the Reserve Bank needs to improve its communication with Australians.

(Owen Jacques, ABC News.)

This target, introduced in March 2020, was part of a package of monetary policy measures designed to help the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic.

In Dr Lowe's words, this target was there "to reinforce the board's forward guidance that the cash rate was very unlikely to be increased for three years, which at the time ran until March 2023".

Last month, in a review of its yield target, the Reserve Bank said the policy had succeeded in driving down funding costs across the economy (pointing to the fall in fixed rates, and a rise in housing and business lending).

But it conceded the exit from the program late last year had hurt the central bank's reputation and had disrupted the bond market.

Borrowers rolling off fixed rates in for a world of pain
As interest rates rise, more people could default on their home loans, creating financial system instability.

"While the target was met for the bulk of the period, the exit in late 2021 was disorderly and caused some reputational damage to the bank," its review said.

Dr Hamilton said the bottom line was that "the Reserve Bank did indicate that they wouldn't raise rates until 2024, and they themselves have admitted that they got that wrong.

"I think the big problem here is communication," he told ABC News.

"I don't blame households for listening to the Reserve Bank, hearing that promise of interest rates at [near] zero… and making a financial decision on that basis.


"I think they can feel misled, to some degree, by the Reserve Bank.

"And I think the Reserve bank needs to take a hard look at its communication in future and properly communicate the full context of its of its forecasts, and the risks around it."

Do regulators need to change?

Treasurer Jim Chalmers recently announced a review of the Reserve Bank.

Jim Chalmers

Dr Oliver said while the terms of reference had not yet been released, it could result in changes to the makeup of its board.

"I think [the review] is going to express scepticism about the forward guidance," he said.

"And it may recommend a broader range of community representation on the Reserve Bank board, possibly including representatives from labour markets or unions.

"But beyond that, I don't see them ditching the 2 to 3 per cent inflation target."

The Reserve Bank is not the only regulator that has questions to answer.

In December 2019, banking watchdog APRA removed certain limits on lending, only to reintroduce some limits in October 2021 after house prices had shot up again.

But by then, the horse had already bolted. Many Australians had been allowed to take out loans six or more times their income, and or with loan-to-value ratios of 90-per-cent plus (in other words, deposits of 10 per cent or less).

Couple this with the fact that while rates were at record lows, house prices had shot up, and people were in a market fuelled by first home owner and HomeBuilder grants.

Sarah Ibrahim said while there were many different variables regulators like the RBA needed to consider, "one of them needs to be highly geared mortgages and people in that situation".

The RBA may argue its messaging always comes with disclaimers, and APRA may argue its mandate is to protect the financial system (in other words, the banks), but enabling borrowers to take on massive debts that lead to more defaults under higher rates must factor in financial instability. Who guards against that outcome?

Joe Biden will do 'everything in his power' to help Brittney Griner, basketballer detained in Russia, White House says

Brittney Griner faces drug smuggling charges that carry a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison.

(AP Photo: Alexander Zemlianichenko)

US President Joe Biden has read a letter from WNBA star Brittney Griner, who has been detained in Russia for more than four months, according to the White House press secretary.

Key points:

The White House press secretary described Brittney Griner's letter as "deeply personal"

She said the US President would "do everything that he can in his power to to bring her home"

There was no indication whether or not Mr Biden would respond to Ms Griner's letter

The 31-year-old athlete, who was arrested at a Moscow airport on February 17 when a search of her luggage allegedly revealed multiple cannabis oil vape cartridges, went on trial on Friday, local time. CBD NOT THC

Ms Griner wrote a letter, sent by her representatives to the White House, appealing to Mr Biden for help to bring her home.

"It is a deeply personal letter. As you know, this President … takes that very personally as well," Karine Jean-Pierre said on Tuesday.

"I can confirm again that he has read the letter and it was, as we all know, deeply personal.

"And we're going to do everything, the President's going to do everything that he can in his power to bring her home, along with other US nationals who are being held wrongfully detained abroad."

Ms Griner made a direct plea to Mr Biden to stand up for her in the emotional letter, excerpts of which have been shared by her representatives.

"As I sit here in a Russian prison, alone with my thoughts and without the protection of my wife, family, friends, Olympic jersey, or any accomplishments, I'm terrified I might be here forever," Ms Griner wrote in the letter.

"On the 4th of July, our family normally honours the service of those who fought for our freedom, including my father who is a Vietnam War veteran.

"It hurts thinking about how I usually celebrate this day because freedom means something completely different to me this year."

Brittney Griner has competed in the Olympics and the US Women's National Basketball Association but has also played regularly in Russia.(Reuters: Sergio Perez)

Ms Jean-Pierre said Ms Griner was "being wrongfully detained in Moscow" but she did not share details about how the US President would respond.

Reuters/AP

Norway Oil, Gas Output Cut Due to Strike


TEHRAN (FNA)- Norway, a leading European supplier of hydrocarbons, is reducing the output of oil and natural gas due to a strike of senior offshore workers, which came into force on Tuesday.

The Norwegian Organization of Managers and Executives (Lederne) union is demanding an increase in wages to compensate for surging inflation, according to Reuters.

During the first day of the shutdown, production at three offshore fields was cut, with two more phases of the protest planned for Wednesday and Saturday.

According to figures from the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association (NOG), the production of natural gas will be reduced by 13% and crude by 6.5%, once the second step comes into force on Wednesday. The percentages correspond to 292,000 barrels of oil equivalent of gas, and 130,000 barrels of oil per day respectively.

If the protest action escalates further, daily output could be cut by a further 230,000 barrels of oil equivalent of gas, and 160,000 barrels of oil equivalent of liquid hydrocarbons, according to Reuters.

Norwegian operator Equinor confirmed the shut-down of production at the Gudrun, Oseberg South, and Oseberg East fields, and is preparing to shut down the Heidrun, Kristin, and Aasta Hansteen fields on Wednesday. The Tyrihans field, which is tied to the Kristin platform, will have to be put on hold as well, it said.

The strike was launched after the Lederne union last Thursday voted down a proposed wage agreement.

“Our goal is that employers engage with us and listen to their employees,” union leader Audun Ingvartsen told the news agency. Other Norwegian unions accepted the deal and will not go on strike.

The protest comes as Norway takes action to respond to soaring global fuel prices and a surge in demand in Europe, which is trying to decouple its economy from Russian energy. The country currently covers roughly a quarter of the demand in the EU and one-fifth of the demand in the UK, according to its petroleum ministry.

Benchmark natural gas futures at the Dutch TTF trading hub surged 10% on Monday on news of the imminent strike in Norway.

Report: Home Secretary Advocates 'Imprisonment, Unlimited Fines' to Tackle Fuel Protests in UK


TEHRAN (FNA)- UK Home Secretary Priti Patel has urged police to wield tough new powers to tackle non-violent demonstrations to deal with the gridlock on motorways across the UK caused by so- called “go-slow” protests, The Telegraph reported.

At least 13 protesters were arrested on Monday for driving too slowly as they blocked roads calling for fuel duty to be slashed, with most apprehensions taking place on the M4. Drivers also protested on the M54, M62, A38 and several other roads.

“Through our Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Act, we have given the police a wealth of powers to deal with disruptive and damaging protests, including imprisonment and unlimited fines for those blocking a highway – actions which inflict further pain on those affected by rising prices,” a Home Office source was cited as saying.

The new measures came into effect on June 28 as part of a major overhaul of the sentencing laws.

“The Home Secretary would encourage and support the police to make use of all the powers available to them. Forces need to move people on. These protests are blocking people from getting to work and from carrying out other vital journeys – this is not about whether you believe in the cause or not,” added the Home Office source.

Echoing this stance, a senior government source was cited by The Times as stating, “The Government has given the police a lot of powers to deal with this sort of stuff and we are looking to them to use it. We want to know what they are going to do about it.”

What was labelled by critics as a “deeply-authoritarian” Police, Crime, Sentencing and Courts Bill was passed on April 26 by the House of Lords and marked the end of months of fierce debate from across Parliament and the public.

The Bill was touted by the government as equipping police with the “powers and tools they need to combat crime while overhauling sentencing laws to protect the public and keep serious sexual and violent offenders behind bars for longer".

In effect, the changes significantly widen the range of situations in which the Met Police can wade in on protests, including being able to clamp down on “noisy” protests. The Act extends the buffer zone around parliament, restricts traveller encampments, and one of its clauses also gives police powers to ban disruptive one-man protesters.

The government has also increased penalties for protesters. "Wilful obstruction of the highway" was previously punishable by a maximum fine of £50, but now carries up to a six month prison sentence and/or an unlimited fine.

One of the aims of the legilsation was to restrict so-called “static protests”, in response to the activities of Extinction Rebellion, that began in 2018 ostensibly to raise awareness of the climate crisis, and Insulate Britain. The environmental protests of the action groups previously blocked streets and bridges in London.

Human rights group Liberty has described the Act as "a concerted attack on the right to protest".

“Protest is not a gift from the state, it is a fundamental right… Protests are by nature ‘noisy’ and ‘disruptive’. It is very worrying the police have already started enforcing the broad powers within the Policing Act in such a heavy-handed and punitive way,” Jun Pang, policy and campaigns officer at Liberty, said.

Prime Minister Boris Johnson stated that his government was delivering on its commitment to make streets safer.

“We have changed the law so that dangerous criminals are given the sentences they deserve and kept behind bars, and we are backing the police with the powers they need to keep us safe. We are well on our way to getting 20,000 more police officers, and we will continue to support victims seeking justice and bear down on crime so that everyone… has the security and confidence they deserve," he added.

As for Monday’s protests, they were understood to have been organized via social media under the slogan ‘Fuel Price Stand Against Tax'.

The action came as the latest figures released by Experian showed the average price of petrol reaching a new high of 191.5p per liter on Sunday. The average price of diesel was 199.0p per liter. According to RAC fuel spokesman Simon Williams, the government needed to “take action” and cut fuel duty again or slash VAT to help “hard-pressed drivers and businesses”.

Amid the protests, UK Chancellor Rishi Sunak promised to consider calls for a “more substantial” fuel duty decrease after the 5p-per-liter reduction in March.

Putin Spies 'Killed My Father,' Says Son of Scientist Arrested on Deathbed

BY BRENDAN COLE 

ON 7/5/22 

The son of a scientist who had been battling late stage cancer has accused Russia's security services of killing his father, after he was detained on suspicion of treason and pulled from his hospital drip.

Dmitry Kolker, 54, who headed the quantum optical technologies laboratory at Siberia's Novosibirsk State University, was suffering from advanced pancreatic cancer when he was arrested at his hospital bed on June 30.

He was flown to Moscow and taken to the capital's notorious Lefortovo prison on suspicion of spying for China.


On July 2, a Moscow court ordered Kolker be held in custody for two months pending an investigation by the Federal Security Service (FSB), which Vladimir Putin headed before he became president. But on the same day, Kolker died after being rushed to hospital, his lawyer Aleksandr Fedulov told Reuters.
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This image shows the Federal Security Services headquarters in Moscow on March 30, 2010. The son of renowned scientist Dmitry Kolker, 54, has accused Russian security services of killing his father after he was arrested on his deathbed on suspicion of espionage.

ANDREI SMIRNOV/GETTY IMAGES

Kolker's son, Maxim, said that his father had been unable to eat on his own and had been fed intravenously before his arrest. In a social media post he denounced the cruelty of his arrest.

"The FSB killed my father, pulling him out of the hospital while knowing what condition he was in," Maxim Kolker posted on the VKontakte network. "Thank you country!!!! They didn't even let our family say goodbye."

Taking aim at the "entire state machine" behind his father's arrest, he added, "I hope you will answer for your actions. You took two two days to kill a man" adding that "now me and my family are left without a father."

Kolker was an internationally renowned scientist who held a number of patents and was a specialist in lasers. He had recently given lectures to Chinese students at an international conference, although they had been vetted by the FSB and were held in the presence of a security services agent, his son told news outlet Taiga Info.

Dmitry Kolker's cousin, Anton Dianov, told Reuters from the U.S. that the allegations against him were "absolutely ridiculous and extremely cruel and unusual to be levied on such a sick man."

"They knew that he was on his deathbed," Dianov said, "and they chose to arrest him."

Dianov told the agency that Kolker "loved his country" and insisted on working in Russia despite invitations from universities and laboratories to work abroad.

In Russia, scientists are often accused of espionage. A scientist at the Institute of Theoretical and Practical Mechanics of the Siberian Academy of Sciences, 75-year-old Anatoly Maslov, has also been detained in connection with the case.

At least 12 employees of the Siberian branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences have been targeted in criminal investigations over the last five years, Radio Free Europe reported.

Copenhagen shooting suspect held in psych ward, authorities rule out terrorism

2022/7/5 

COPENHAGEN (Reuters) -The man accused of killing three people in a shooting in a Danish shopping mall was ordered on Monday to be held in a closed psychiatric ward, and authorities said they did not suspect the crime to be an act of terrorism.

The 22-year-old Danish male, accused of opening fire on Sunday afternoon on shoppers in the Field's mall a few kilometres south of downtown Copenhagen, was arrested and charged with manslaughter and intent to kill.

He was remanded into custody for 24 days and will undergo a psychiatric evaluation, authorities said. The court has barred publication of his name, which is common in criminal cases in Denmark.

The incident shocked Denmark at the end of an otherwise festive week in which it hosted the first three stages of the Tour de France cycle race and hundreds of thousands of cheering Danes took to the streets across the country.

The shooter killed two 17-year-olds and a 47-year-old. Seven other people were wounded with gunshots, four with serious injuries, including a 16-year-old girl. Twenty people received other injuries fleeing the scene.

The incident could not be viewed as an "act of terror" based on current evidence, Chief Police Inspector Soren Thomassen told reporters, adding there was no indication the suspect had acted together with others.

"There has been some sort of deliberation and preparation (by the suspect) up to this terrible event," Thomassen told a news conference without providing details on the perpetrator's possible motives.

"Our current assessment is that these are random victims."

The attack took place when many young people were visiting the mall ahead of a concert due to be held nearby by British singer Harry Styles. The concert was cancelled.

"I'm heartbroken along with the people of Copenhagen. I adore this city. The people are so warm and full of love. I'm devastated for the victims, their families, and everyone hurting," Styles wrote on Twitter. "I'm sorry we couldn't be together. Please look after each other."

The suspect, who police said was known to psychiatrists in Denmark, was in possession of a rifle, ammunition and a knife when he was arrested.

Danish gun laws are strict and all firearms, with the exception of some hunting rifles, require a licence issued by the police. The shooter did not have such a licence.

Denmark's largest cinema operator Nordisk Film, which has a venue at the Field's shopping centre, said it had decided to close its theaters across the country on Monday due to the shooting.

(Reporting by Stine Jacobsen and Nikolaj Skydsgaard, editing by Anna Ringstrom and Ed Osmond)

Ukrainian Mathematician Becomes Second Woman To Receive Prestigious Fields Medal

Maryna Viazovska (Lehtikuva via AP) was awarded for her work in sphere packing -- a problem first posed by German astronomer and mathematician Johannes Kepler nearly 400 years ago.

Four mathematicians have been awarded prestigious Fields medals, including Ukrainian Maryna Viazovska, the International Mathematical Union jury said on July 5.

Viazovska is only the second woman to win the prize, considered the equivalent of a Nobel Prize for mathematics.

She accepted the award at a ceremony in Helsinki as war raged in her home country.

The other winners were French mathematician Hugo Duminil-Copin of the University of Geneva; Korean-American mathematician June Huh of Princeton; and British mathematician James Maynard of the University of Oxford.

The Fields Medal is awarded every four years to mathematicians under 40.

Maryam Mirzakhani , an Iranian-born professor at Stanford University, was the first woman to receive the prize for her work in 2014. She died of breast cancer in 2017.

Viazovska has been a professor at the Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne in Switzerland since 2017.


Maryna Viazovska (left)

She was awarded for her work in sphere packing -- a problem first posed by German astronomer and mathematician Johannes Kepler nearly 400 years ago.

The International Congress of Mathematicians, where the prize is awarded, was initially scheduled to be held in the Russian city of St. Petersburg -- and opened by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Earlier this year, hundreds of mathematicians signed an open letter protesting the choice of the host city. After Moscow invaded Ukraine in late February, the event was moved to the Finnish capital.

With reporting by AFP, AP and The New York Times

British mathematician awarded prestigious Fields Medal

James Maynard (Lehtikuva via AP)

TUE, 05 JUL, 2022 -
AP REPORTERS

British academic James Maynard and Ukrainian expert Maryna Viazovska have been named as two of the four recipients of the prestigious Fields Medal – often described as the Nobel Prize in mathematics.

The International Mathematical Union said Ms Viazovska, who holds the chair in number theory at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Lausanne, was honoured for her work on the densest packing of identical spheres in eight dimensions.

Alongside the University of Oxford’s Mr Maynard, who is an expert in analytic number theory, with a particular focus on prime numbers, the other winners were French mathematician Hugo Duminil-Copin of the University of Geneva and Korean-American mathematician June Huh of Princeton.

The Fields Medal is awarded every four years to mathematicians under the age of 40.


Maryna Vjazovska, James Maynard, June Huh and Hugo Duminil-Copin (Lehtikuva via AP)

The recipients are normally announced at the International Congress of Mathematicians, which was originally due to be held in Russia this year but was moved to Helsinki instead.

The president of the International Mathematical Union, Carlos E Kenig, said: “The ongoing barbaric war that Russia still continues to wage against Ukraine clearly shows that no other alternative was feasible.”